WEEK SHEET
Week Six: 10/31 (AGH!)
Announcements:
1. Practicing Democracy: Reminder, the Practicing Democracy assignment is due on Nov 15 th, but Oct.
20th was the last day to register voters so that option is closed if you haven’t already registered voters.
There are still plenty of opportunities to get involved in campaigns – a number are looking for people to
come in to the local offices and make phone calls and would be happy if you give 2 or 3 hours of time. Just
Google the campaign you are interested in, find the local office and give them a call to get started.
One class member asked what she should write about if she volunteers at the pools. this is what I wrote to
her: There are a number of things you could think about - and then write on those which seem most
relevant to your experience:
 Who are the other volunteers, what are their stories and why are they there.
 What does turn out look like? Is the district mostly Republican or Democratic, what seems to be
the demographics of the the voters (class, race, age, etc.)
 Which party has better turnout - you can tell be looking at the rolls)/
 Do you notice any organized activity by the campaigns to get out the vote? You may see people
checking out who among their supporters has to yet to vote.
Reading:
Text: Both ADR chapter 10 and Rourke Chpt. 10.
Lecture: Elections
To Do:
1. Dealing with the electoral college:
After reading Chapter 10 in You Decide (Rourke), explain whether you think Cain or Best makes the most
compelling argument concerning the electoral college. Be sure to assess what you see as the key points of
both writers. What would you suggest doing to reform the electoral college? (400 - 500 words)
2. Thinking About Elections: Chose ONE of the following:
1. In what ways do you participate in politics and in what ways does your participation reflect the
demographic trends outlined by your text in pages 259-263.
2. What do you think of Shuman’s observations about voting? (See the final slides from this
week’s lecture.) Is voting more of a right or is it a duty? What are the implications of this?
3. Predicting the Popular Vote (25 points)
Here’s a chance to win 4 free points on the next midterm by predicting the outcome of the presidential
election. Go to all or any of the polls below and then make your judgment as to what percentage the
winner will win the popular vote by. Whomever come within 1 percentage point will get 4 additional
points on the next midterm. Tell me how much you think McCain or Obama will win (in terms of
percentage points) and then write a 300 word explanation of how you made your determination.
Things to think about as you make your determination:
 What accounts for the differences in the polls?
 Who will vote? Does the poll just measure “likely” voters or all registered voters?
 Will young voters and Latinos, both who have registered in record numbers but traditionally have low turn
out rates, come out and vote at higher rates than in the past? How might this affect the outcome? What the
polls account for this possibility, and will this make them more or less accurate?



What about the undecided? Who are these people and what way are they likely to break? If they are
mostly people whose demographics are more typical of McCain voters, does this mean eh will pick up
most of them (Or are they Democrats who just won’t say they are voting against Obama?)
And of course, should we account for the “Bradley Effect”? Some say there could also be a reverse
Bradley effect among rural whites who don’t want their neighbors to know they support Obama.)
Sensing defeat, will Republicans stay home and watch TV rather than bothering to vote?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/ (This is probably the best place to start as it lists a number of
major polls. Click on the polling organization to get details on how the poll was conducted and how it
should be interpreted.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
http://www.Pollster.com
http://election.princeton.edu
To listen to a 6 minute lesson on deciphering polls go to the following NPR site:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95965663
4. Predicting Electoral Vote
Again a chance to win extra points. The 5 students who come the closest will get 4 extra points on the midterm. Remember in the end winning the election is not about the national popular vote, it is about winning
states (the combination of them). In most states one candidate or the other has a commanding lead,
however a number of states are up for grabs or at least vulnerable for one candidate. These include
(depending on the poll, and what you think is an insurmountable lead) Ohio, Florida, North Carolina,
Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia, Missouri, and Indiana.
Look a the poll results in the “battleground” states and asking yourself the same questions as above decide
what the outcome will be. Tell me what you think the electoral vote will be and how you made your
determination. (300 words) PS – Most of the polls you have been look at have a margin of error of plus or
minus percent. Thus, if one candidate is only ahead by only 3 percentage points it is possible a retake of
the poll could show him behind by 3 points. (Of course if a number of polls done repeatedly keep showing
the same result, the likelihood of the poll being in error is diminished.)
To examine the electoral vote, I suggest trying these sites:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2008/primaries/states/
To Think About:
1. How and why has suffrage expanded in the U.S. over its history and why do you think American vote a
lower rate than most developed democracies? Would you describe the right to vote more as a privilege or
responsibility? Explain.
2. What factors best explain why voter turnout in the U.S. is typically lower than in other democracies and
what lead certain groups of people to be less likely to vote.
3. Define unconventional activism and its aims, and provide historical examples. Describe Americans’
attitudes toward unconventional activism.
4. Explain the major stages of a presidential election cycle. Describe some of the controversial issues
surrounding how we elect our presidents.
5. Different states use different systems for their presidential primaries. Explain the advantage and
disadvantages of the following three options for organizing state primaries:
 caucus vs general primary
 open vs closed primary
 “winner take all” vs proportional
6. What do you think would be the best way for the parties to select their presidential nominees: a national
primary, our current staggered system, or one of the alternate plans. What would be the advantages and
disadvantages of a national primary?