Matakuliah
Tahun
: <<Manajemen Keuangan>>
: <<2009>>
PERENCANAAN DAN PERAMALAN
KEUANGAN
Pertemuan 25
Learning Outcomes
Pada akhir pertemuan ini diharapkan :
Mahasiswa dapat menunjukkan hubungan
pembiayaan internal dan eksternal ketika
membuat ramalan dan perencanaan keuangan.
Bina Nusantara University
3
Outline Materi




Forecasting sales
Projecting the assets and internally generated funds
Projecting outside funds needed
Deciding how to raise funds
Bina Nusantara University
4
Preliminary financial forecast:
Balance sheets (Assets)
2005
Cash and equivalents
$
2006E
20
$
25
Accounts receivable
240
300
Inventories
240
300
$ 500
$ 625
500
625
$1,000
$1,250
Total current assets
Net fixed assets
Total assets
Bina Nusantara University
5
Preliminary financial forecast: Balance
sheets (Liabilities and equity)
Accts payable & accrued liab.
Notes payable
Total current liabilities
Long-term debt
Common stock
Retained earnings
Total liabilities & equity
Bina Nusantara University
2005
$ 100
100
200
100
500
200
$1,000
2006E
$ 125
190
315
190
500
245
$1,250
6
Preliminary financial forecast: Income
statements
2005
2006E
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
1,200.0
1,500.0
700.0
875.0
$100.0
$125.0
16.0
16.0
$84.0
$109.0
Taxes (40%)
33.6
43.6
Net income
$50.4
$65.40
Dividends (30% of NI)
$15.12
$19.62
Addition to retained earnings
$35.28
$45.78
Sales
Less: Variable costs
Fixed costs
EBIT
Interest
EBT
Bina Nusantara University
7
Key financial ratios
Basic earning power
Profit margin
Return on equity
Days sales outstanding
Inventory turnover
Fixed assets turnover
Total assets turnover
Debt/assets
Times interest earned
Current ratio
Payout ratio
Bina Nusantara University
2005
10.00%
2.52%
2006E
10.00%
2.62%
Ind Avg
20.00%
4.00%
Comment
Poor
Poor
7.20%
8.77%
15.60%
Poor
43.8 days 43.8 days 32.0 days
8.33x
8.33x
11.00x
4.00x
4.00x
5.00x
2.00x
2.00x
2.50x
30.00%
40.34%
36.00%
6.25x
7.81x
9.40x
2.50x
1.99x
3.00x
30.00%
30.00%
30.00%
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
OK
Poor
Poor
OK
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•
•
•
•
Key assumptions in preliminary financial
forecast for NWC
Operating at full capacity in 2005.
Each type of asset grows proportionally with sales.
Payables and accruals grow proportionally with sales.
2005 profit margin (2.52%) and payout (30%) will be
maintained.
• Sales are expected to increase by $500 million. (%DS =
25%)
Bina Nusantara University
9
Determining additional funds needed, using
the AFN equation
AFN
= (A*/S0)ΔS – (L*/S0) ΔS – M(S1)(RR)
= ($1,000/$2,000)($500)
– ($100/$2,000)($500)
– 0.0252($2,500)(0.7)
= $180.9 million.
Bina Nusantara University
10
Management’s review of the financial
forecast
• Consultation with some key managers has yielded the
following revisions:
– Firm expects customers to pay quicker next year, thus
reducing DSO to 34 days without affecting sales.
– A new facility will boost the firm’s net fixed assets to
$700 million.
– New inventory system to increase the firm’s inventory
turnover to 10x, without affecting sales.
• These changes will lead to adjustments in the firm’s
assets and will have no effect on the firm’s liabilities on
equity section of the balance sheet or its income
statement.
Bina Nusantara University
11
Revised (final) financial forecast:
Balance sheets (Assets)
2005
Cash and equivalents
$
2006E
20
$
67
Accounts receivable
240
233
Inventories
240
250
$ 500
$ 550
500
700
$1,000
$1,250
Total current assets
Net fixed assets
Total assets
Bina Nusantara University
12
Key financial ratios – final forecast
Basic earning power
Profit margin
Return on equity
Days sales outstanding
Inventory turnover
Fixed assets turnover
Total assets turnover
Debt/assets
Times interest earned
Current ratio
Payout ratio
Bina Nusantara University
2005
10.00%
2.52%
2006F
10.00%
2.62%
Ind Avg
20.00%
4.00%
Comment
Poor
Poor
7.20%
8.77%
15.60%
Poor
43.8 days
8.33x
4.00x
2.00x
30.00%
6.25x
2.50x
30.00%
34.0 days
10.00x
3.57x
2.00x
40.34%
7.81x
1.75x
30.00%
32.0 days
11.00x
5.00x
2.50x
36.00%
9.40x
3.00x
30.00%
OK
OK
Poor
Poor
OK
Poor
Poor
OK
13
What was the net investment in operating
capital?
• OC2006
= NOWC + Net FA
= $625 - $125 + $625
= $1,125
• OC2005
= $900
• Net investment in OC
Bina Nusantara University
= $1,125 - $900
= $225
14
How much free cash flow is expected to be
generated in 2006?
FCF
= NOPAT
– Net inv. in OC
= EBIT (1 – T) – Net inv. in OC
= $125 (0.6) – $225
= $75 – $225
= -$150.
Bina Nusantara University
15
Suppose fixed assets had only been
operating at 85% of capacity in 2005
• The maximum amount of sales that can be
supported by the 2005 level of assets is:
– Capacity sales = Actual sales / % of capacity
= $2,000 / 0.85 = $2,353
• 2006 forecast sales exceed the capacity sales,
so new fixed assets are required to support
2006 sales.
Bina Nusantara University
16
How can excess capacity affect the
forecasted ratios?
• Sales wouldn’t change but assets would be lower, so
turnovers would improve.
• Less new debt, hence lower interest and higher profits
– EPS, ROE, debt ratio, and TIE would improve.
Bina Nusantara University
17
How would the following items affect the
AFN?
• Higher dividend payout ratio?
– Increase AFN: Less retained earnings.
• Higher profit margin?
– Decrease AFN: Higher profits, more retained
earnings.
• Higher capital intensity ratio?
– Increase AFN: Need more assets for given sales.
• Pay suppliers in 60 days, rather than 30 days?
– Decrease AFN: Trade creditors supply more capital (i.e., L*/S0
increases).
Bina Nusantara University
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Closing
• Peramalan laporan keuangan adalah bagian penting dari
proses perencanaan keuangan. Baik investor maupun
perusahaan secara teratur menggunakan teknik
peramalan untuk membantu penentuan nilai saham
perusahaan.
Bina Nusantara University
19