CO-IMP-MO – the use of COCOMO II to improve Rolls-Royce Andy Nolan BSc Hons, CEng, FBCS, CITP Chief of Software improvement – The Software Centre of Excellence Satpaul Sall BSc Hons Software Technologist – The Software Centre of Excellence ©2011 Rolls-Royce plc The information in this document is the property of Rolls-Royce plc and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Rolls-Royce plc. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Rolls-Royce plc, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Rolls-Royce plc or any of its subsidiary or associated companies. Abstract Validating Improvement Initiatives - Using COCOMO to verify improvement projects/programmes being delivered by the engineering organisation. Are we failing to recognise which areas of improvement we need to be tackling as a business? COCOMO has allowed us to show Rolls-Royce the key factors affecting programme/project performance & effectiveness. This has had big pull from the corporate Engineering Improvements team who want to use this method to verify many improvement projects. The presentation provides an overview of the tool and some of the results it produces. Rolls-Royce data 2 3 Rolls-Royce data The need for Software Product Lines 4 The Control Systems department is responsible for the Engine Electronic Controllers (EECs) for a range of small and large gas turbine engines for the aerospace industry. The software is developed to DO178B Level-A standards The company has been developing high integrity software for over 20 years and has extensive data on its processes and productivity. We have the largest order book in history, new engine development places greater demand on the software team (shorter time scales and lower costs) Rolls-Royce data 5 The Philosophy An improvement project should be estimated and managed to the same rigour as a development project of its equivalent size and risk Rolls-Royce data 6 Benchmarking the business CO-Bus-MO Enterprise business performance CO-RISK-MO Risk Management Using the model to identify and quantify risk Rolls-Royce data CO-Imp-MO Improvement COCOMO Estimation & eliciting key assumptions & negotiation Software Supplier COCOMO COCOMO Hardware COCOMO A unifying language Using COCOMO to identify & validate improvements Challenging our supplier costs. Hardware Supplier COCOMO Using many SW factors to estimate hardware engineering Benchmarking the business CO-Bus-MO Enterprise business performance CO-RISK-MO Risk Estimation Management Using the model to identify and quantify risk Rolls-Royce data Elicitation CO-Imp-MO Improvement COCOMO Estimation & eliciting key assumptions & negotiation Software Supplier COCOMO COCOMO Hardware COCOMO A unifying language Using COCOMO to identify & validate Diagnostics improvements Challenging our supplier costs. Hardware Supplier COCOMO Using many SW factors to estimate hardware engineering 8 The problem Improvements are often peoples “pet” subjects, based on politics, overlook the “elephant in the room”, lack evidence to justify their claims and can easily overspend and undersucceed Rolls-Royce data COCOMO is at the heart of our business Business Goals Set Project Goals & Targets Anticipate risk Identify improvements Validate improvements Benchmark the business Make better decisions Estimate & Plan Project Understand Improve Monitor Capability capability & Control Project Benchmark Capability Rolls-Royce data 9 Estimating the Benefit of Improvements ©2011 Rolls-Royce plc The information in this document is the property of Rolls-Royce plc and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Rolls-Royce plc. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Rolls-Royce plc, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Rolls-Royce plc or any of its subsidiary or associated companies. 11 The Philosophy If COCOMO II models the cost of a project then it can also model the benefits of improvements. Any improvement that does not affect a factor in COMO is unlikely to deliver significant engineering improvements Rolls-Royce data 12 COCOMO Improvement Rolls-Royce data Estimating Improvement benefits Benefit is calculated as the % influence over each COCOMO factor. Each COCOMO factor has a difference sensitivity and each improvement will affect each factor differently 13 COCOMO Improvement Benefit Estimating Improvement benefits Benefit is calculated as the % influence over each COCOMO factor. Each COCOMO factor has a difference sensitivity and each improvement will affect each factor differently %Benefit = %influence * COCOMO Factor Rolls-Royce data 14 Sector FTE COCOMO COCOMO Improvement Improvement Rolls-Royce data Estimating Improvement benefits FTE’s affected is based upon the number of FTE’s in each business section multiplied by the % affected by the improvement initiative 15 Sector FTE COCOMO COCOMO Improvement Improvement Rolls-Royce data Estimating Improvement benefits Example 1 £/$Benefit = %Benefit * FTE * Hours per year * Cost Rate 16 Improvement Improvement COCOMO COCOMO Estimating Improvement benefits Benefit is also affected by WHEN the improvements are expected to arise (time) Sector FTE Example 2 Year 10% 50% 100% Rolls-Royce data 100% 50% 25% 100% 50% 75% Estimating Improvement benefits COCOMO COCOMO Improvement Improvement Sector FTE Example 3 Year 10% 100% 50% 50% 25% 100% 50% Cost£ 100% 10 50 100 Rolls-Royce data 75% 100 50% 25 100 50 75 17 18 Improvement Improvement Sector FTE COCOMO COCOMO Estimating Improvement benefits Year 10% 100% 50% 50% 25% 100% 50% Cost£ 100% 10 50 100 Rolls-Royce data 75% 100 50% 25 100 50 75 Eliciting Improvement ©2011 Rolls-Royce plc The information in this document is the property of Rolls-Royce plc and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Rolls-Royce plc. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Rolls-Royce plc, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Rolls-Royce plc or any of its subsidiary or associated companies. % Impact on Project Cost -5% New KSLOC 0% -15% Rolls-Royce data -20% Risk Log FRAG - Task Fragmentation TASK - Task Priority MTOL - Management Tools MEXP - Management Expereince MCAP - Management Capability Risks & Opportunities SCED - development schedule SITE - development sites TOOL - tool capability LTEX - language & tool experience PLEX - platform experience APEX - application experience PCON - Personnel continuity PCAP - programmer capability (code) ACAP - Analyst capability PVOL - platform volatility STOR - storage use TIME - execution time DOCU - additional documentation RUSE - developing for reuse CPLX - complexity of product DATA - test data complexity RELY reliability PMAT - Process maturity TEAM - team cohesion ARCH - Architectural resolution RESL - Risk resolution FLEX - Development flexibility PREC - project precedentedness S&R - % rework (planned or unplanned) REVL (Req Evolution & Volatility) -10% Hours per Month Project 3-point Estimate 20 Improvement Log Risk Opportunity 15% 10% 5% Business Average Performance Best Value Nominal Value Business average: where the business needs to invest Worst Value Rolls-Royce data 21 Diagnostics Tool Best Value Nominal Value Worst Value Business average: where the business needs to invest Rolls-Royce data 22 Conclusion ©2011 Rolls-Royce plc The information in this document is the property of Rolls-Royce plc and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Rolls-Royce plc. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Rolls-Royce plc, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Rolls-Royce plc or any of its subsidiary or associated companies. Conclusions COCOMO II challenges the business Are our improvements worthwhile Are we improving the right things It has had the effect of Stopping some initiatives Changing many other initiatives Creating new ideas in the business Rolls-Royce data 24 25 An Observation Often, just the existence of COCOMO II and its factors is enough to change project and business behaviour for the better. Rolls-Royce data