The Future of Food:
Feeding 9 Billion People
October 4, 2011
Uko Zylstra
Biology Department
Calvin College
Present hunger and poverty
•
•
•
•
~1 billion undernourished
~1 billion malnourished or overfed (obese)
~1.2 billion live < $1.00/day
~1.2 billion live < $2.00/day
Does this situation have any relation to
global security?
If so, is the ‘solution’ military security
or food security?
A Fundamental Question
• Present global food production is
adequate to feed present human
population: why are so many still
undernourished?
• But is present global food production
sustainable ?
A sustainable agriculture is
founded upon fundamental
principles of agroecosystems
Two paradigms
• Industrial: reductionist – food is basically a
form of organic chemical energy
• Agrarian: holistic; concerned with agroecology and community relations
Key question
Which of the two paradigms will
contribute most to food and
agriculture sustainability for
feeding the growing population?
• Industrial or Agrarian?
This question is important for setting
policy and direction (such as in the
farm bills)
Food Sustainability
• Linked to population growth
• Linked to resources for growing food
– Cropland: quality and quantity
– Energy (including fertilizer and
pesticide production)
– Water (irrigation)
Rank
Country /
Territory
Population
Date
% of world
population
1
People's
Republic of
China[57]
1,346,650,000
October 4, 2011
19.3%
2
India
1,203,710,000
March 2011
17%
3
United States
312,355,000
October 4, 2011
4.48%
4
Indonesia
238,400,000
May 2010
3.36%
5
Brazil
195,332,000
February 4, 2011
2.8%
6
Pakistan
177,415,000
October 4, 2011
2.55%
7
Nigeria
158,259,000
2010
2.27%
8
Bangladesh
142,325,250
2010
2.36%
9
Russia
141,927,297
January 1, 2010
2.04%
10
Japan
127,380,000
June 1, 2010
1.83%
Table 19.3
Future food needs projection
• By 2050, global agricultural demand
is projected to grow by 70-100
percent due to population growth,
energy demands, and higher
incomes in developing countries.
Grain production nearly tripled in between
1950-2000
World Grain Production, 1950-2001
2000
Million Tons
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
Source: USDA
1985
1990
1995
2000
World Irrigated Area, 1950-2007
350
300
Million Hectares
250
200
150
100
50
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Source: Worldwatch, FAO
1990
2000
2010
Food vs. Fuel
• More than one fourth of
the U.S. grain crop is
now going to ethanol
Corn Used for Fuel Ethanol in the United
States, 1980-2010
• U.S. ethanol euphoria
helped double annual
growth in global grain
demand, raising food
prices worldwide
• Ethanol 6.5% of auto fuel
The grain needed to fill an SUV’s 25-gallon tank with ethanol
once could feed one person for an entire year. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Dave Huss
Some issues related to animals as food
• Animal population equivalents
– over 15 billion animal population equivalents
• Food vs. feed
• Vegetarian vs meat diets
• Feedlot system of animal husbandry
World Livestock Population, 1961-2007
3,400
3,200
Millions
3,000
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1960
1970
1980
Source: FAO
1990
2000
2010
World Animal Protein Production, 1961-2007
120
100
Pork
Million Tons
80
Poultry
60
Beef
40
Farmed Fish
20
Sheep and Goats
0
1960
1970
1980
Source: FAO
1990
2000
2010
Soil Fertility
• Continues to decline due to farming
practices
• Use of chemical fertilizers replaces
natural fertility
Some good development potentials:
no till agriculture
organic matter buildup
US Farmland
1200
A 15 % decline
M
i
l
l
i
o
n
A
c
r
e
s
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1964
1969
1974
1978
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
Kent County Farmland
250
T
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
200
150
100
A
c
r
e
s
50
0
1978
1982
1987
1992
1997
Census Year
2002
2007
Farmland Preservation
• Moral obligation to preserve prime
farmland
• Michigan doesn’t face the water issues
as western states do
• Kent County PDR (Purchase of
Development Rights) program
Degradation (decline) in
resources for food production
• Cropland
– Quality
– quantity
• Water
• Energy
• Minerals (fertilizers)
World Irrigated Area, 1950-2007
350
300
Million Hectares
250
200
150
100
50
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Source: Worldwatch, FAO
1990
2000
2010
Saudi Arabia’s Bursting Bubble
Wheat Production and Consumption in Saudi
Arabia, 1995-2010, with Projection to 2013
3,500
3,000
2,000
1,500
1,000
Production
500
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: USDA; EPI
Saudi Arabia is the first country to publicly project how
aquifer depletion will shrink its grain harvest.
Photo Credit: NASA
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
Consumption
2,500
Thousand Tons
• Saudi Arabia became
self-sufficient in wheat by
tapping a nonreplenishable aquifer to
irrigate the desert
• In early 2008, the
government announced
the aquifer was largely
depleted
• The population of nearly
30 million could be
entirely dependent on
imported grain by 2013
2015
Central Pivot Irrigation
Ogallala Aquifer
CORN PRODUCTION
State
Acreage
(1000s)
Production (1000
bushels)
USA total
79,630
13,151,062
Nebraska
8,850
1,575,300
Kansas
3,860
598,300
South Dakota
4,700
719,000
Colorado
990
151,470
Oklahoma
320
33,600
Total irrigated by
Ogallala Aquifer
23% of total
USA
3,077,770
Colorado R. Watershed
Rio Grande R. Watershed
Rio Grande Watershed
• Drains 1/10 of US; drains 2/5 of Mexico
• 4/5ths of water taken for irrigation
– mostly for cotton and alfalfa
– Only ~40% reaches crops due to evaporation
from reservoirs, etc
• Hub of exploitation upstream of El Paso
• 1944 treaty between US & Mexico:
– 1/3 of water from 6 tributaries in Mexico is
allocated to US
Watersheds supplied by
Himalayan glaciers
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Yellow River
Yangste River
Ganges
Brahmaputra
Indus River
Mekong
Amy Darya
Syr Darya
Yellow R. Watershed
Yangste R. Watershed
Water Depletion in China
• China: Four fifths of grain harvest comes
from irrigated land
• Water table under North China Plain falling
fast (up to 3 meters per year); supplies half
of China’s wheat and 1/3 of corn
• Melting glaciers in Himalayas will aggravate
this situation
Water Depletion in India
• World Bank reports 15% of India's food
supply is produced by mining water;
underground water supplies 2/3 of India's
crops
• Melting glaciers in Himalayas will aggravate
this situation
• India’s rivers do not contain enough water
to sustain demand
• Irrigating thirsty crops like sugarcane,
alfalfa and cotton
Ganges Watershed
Orissa
Madhya Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh
West Bengal
80
Karnataka
Bihar
Maharashtra
Uttar Pradesh
Gujarat
Tamil Nadu
Rajasthan
Haryana
Punjab
Percent of groundwater aquifers
100
% Groundwater developed
% Overexploited aquifers
60
40
20
0
Brahmaputra Watershed
Pakistan
• Without Indus river, Pakistan would be a
desert
• World’s leading export of cotton and
manufactured textiles (British empire
legacy)
– Nearly 1/3 of irrig. land is for cotton
• 1/10 of fields lost to salt accumulation
• ~138 million acre-ft withdrawn out of ~146
million acre-ft; river largely dry when it
reaches Arabian Sea
Indus R. Watershed
Mekong R. Watershed
Amu Darya Watershed
• Aral Sea in 1960s covered size of Belgium
and Netherlands combined
• Contained more than 800 million acre-ft
• Almost all the flow of Amu Darya diverted
for growing cotton in the desert
Aral Sea
Amu Darya R. Watershed
Syr Darya R. Watershed
Nile R. Watershed
Brazil
Argentina
Turkey
Algeria
Afghanistan
Morocco
China
United States
Mexico
Italy
Cuba
Egypt
Syria
India
Iran
Libya
Pakistan
Yemen
Bangladesh
Saudi Arabia
Percent of total cultivated area
100
Total irrigated area
80
Groundwater irrigated area
60
40
20
0
Some conclusions
• Food security requires sustainable food and
agricultural policies at local, state, regional,
national and global levels
• US Farm Bills need to focus on sustainable
agriculture including small farmholders–
not only production
• Preservation of prime farmland is a bottom
line for food security
• Preservation of water resources is critical
for sustainability
Questions?
Murray-Darling R. Watershed