Before the
Arizona Corporation Commission
Arizona Public Service Company
2010 Summer Assessment
APRIL 8TH, 2010
04/08/10
Slide 1
Presenters
Bob Smith
Director, Asset Management and Planning
Tom Carlson
Director, Fuels
Tom Glock
Director, Power Operations
04/08/10
Slide 2
Agenda
• System Improvements
• Planned Maintenance Activities
• Emergency Preparedness
• Fuel and Purchase Power
• Loads and Resources
• Transmission System Adequacy
• Contingency Planning
• Conclusions
04/08/10
Slide 3
System Improvements
Emergency Planning
Bob Smith
Director
Asset Management and Planning
04/08/10
Slide 4
APS Service Statistics
• 11 counties
• 34,645 sq. mi. CC&N
area
Grand Canyon
Flagstaff
• 1.1 million customers
Seligman
• 413 substations
• 28,670 distribution
line miles
• 5,325 transmission line
miles
• 54 generation units
Prescott
Parker
Yuma
Holbrook
Payson
Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix
Show Low
Gila Bend
Casa Grande
Douglas
04/08/10
Slide 5
Reliability Supply Chain
Transmission Lines
500 kV and 345 kV
Generating Station
Step-up
Transformer
Bulk Power Station
Transmission
Substation
Transmission Lines
230 kV
120/240 V
Service
Distribution Lines 12 kV
Step-down
Transformer
DistributionTransmission Lines
Substation
69 kV
CAR: [ 140077] ESYST
EM . DG N 01/ 06/ 95
04/08/10
Slide 6
Delivery System Construction
2009
2010
Distribution Sub MVA
158
62
Trans. Sub MVA
728
600
52
59
Trans. Lines Miles, Rebuild 42
41
Trans. Line Miles, New
Total distribution system substation capacity = 13,390 MVA
Total transmission system substation capacity = 27,673 MVA
04/08/10
Slide 7
Transmission
Substation Additions 2010
TO
CRYSTAL
NAVAJO
FOUR
CORNERS
MOENKOPI
TO ELDORADO
TO GLEN
CANYON (WAPA)
SELIGMAN
TO MEAD /
MARKETPLACE
COCONINO
BAGDAD
(WA
PA)
YAVAPAI
2 circuits
VERDE
FLAGSTAFF
(WAPA)
WILLOW
LAKE
A)
AP
(W
DUGAS
GAVILAN
PEAK
TO DEVERS
CHOLLA
SUGARLOAF
(WA
PA)
ROUND
VALLEY
CORONADO
PREACHER
CANYON
Morgan
WEST
WING
HARQUAHALA
PALO VERDEHASSAYAMPA
RUDD
REDHAWK
TO
IMPERIAL
VALLEY
GILA RIVER/
PANDA
N.GILA
GILA BEND
PINNACLE
PEAK
LIBERTY
JOJOBA
SANTA
ROSA
KYRENE
COOLIDGE
VALLEY FARMS
KNOX
SUNDANCE
DESERT
BASIN
CASA
GRANDE
MILLIGAN
YUCCA
TAT MOMOLI
SAGUARO
ORACLE
JUNCTION
SAN MANUEL
ADAMS
MURAL
04/08/10
Slide 8
(S
RP
)
Morgan 500/230kV
Substation
Planned Reliability
Activities
04/08/10
Slide 9
Planned Generation Maintenance
Pre-Summer 2010
Future
Cycles
Scheduled
Maintenance
04/08/10
Slide 10
Transmission and Distribution
Maintenance and Monitoring
• U-Bushing Circuit Breaker Replacement Program
• Maintenance Optimization Project
• Web-based Software to Assess Substation Equipment
Health for Strategic Maintenance
• TOAN analysis software
• Annual line inspections
• Predictive Maintenance Expanded Scope to Include
Line Scans as well as Substation Scans
04/08/10
Slide 11
Vegetation Management
• Focusing on providing safe, reliable power and
reducing wildfire risk
• Wildfire planning
– Teach and Participate in the Wildfire Academy,
Prescott
– Pre-wildfire Season Meetings with Five National
Forest
– On-Site Incident Command presence
• Eight Employees are Fire Line Qualified
– 2010 Fire Season Severe and Continuous
• Transmission corridor clearing 69 kV and
above
– 2009 – completed 1,704 miles
– 2010 – scheduled 1,684 miles
• Sub-transmission, distribution on track
04/08/10
Slide 12
Emergency Equipment
• New 33MVA 69/12kV Mobile Transformer
• Emergency Towers towers
two Lindsey
• Generator – two 1,500 KW units
• Mobile Command Center
04/08/10
Slide 13
New 33MVA Mobile Transformer
04/08/10
Slide 14
Lindsey Towers
04/08/10
Slide 15
Mobile Generator
04/08/10
Slide 16
Mobile Command Center
04/08/10
Slide 17
Preparing for Emergencies
Governmental Engagement
Coyote Crisis – Involved in planning for 2011 State drill
Business Continuity Plans updated and exercised
Incident Command Training / First Responders
Joint training, planning, drills
Agency familiarization – facility layout (Westwing &
Pinnacle Peak substations)
• General business planning
•
•
•
•
•
– Curtailment Plan annual filing
– ECC Disaster Recovery Exercise, March 2010
– Essential Resources tested to meet Regulatory
Requirements
– Public / Private Partnerships
– Partnership with Public Health providing H1N1 Vaccine
04/08/10
Slide 18
Summary
• Infrastructure will be in place to
meet summer 2010 needs
• Maintenance efforts on track
• Coordination, integration with
emergency planners in place
• Internal emergency preparedness
– Plans
– Training
– Equipment
04/08/10
Slide 19
APS Fuels Procurement
Tom Carlson
Director, Fuels
04/08/10
Slide 20
APS Generation
• Base Load, Nuclear
– Palo Verde
• Base Load, Coal
– Four Corners
– Cholla
– Navajo
• Intermediate and
Peak Load, Gas, Oil
back-up
– Phoenix Area
• West Phoenix
• Sundance
• Redhawk
• Ocotillo
– Saguaro
– Yucca
– Douglas
04/08/10
Slide 21
Farmington NM
Page
Joseph City
Phoenix
Yuma
Tucson
Douglas
Meeting Customers’ Needs
04/08/10
Slide 22
2010 Projected Energy Mix
04/08/10
Slide 23
Nuclear: Palo Verde
• Fuel sourced from
multiple suppliers
• 100% of 2010
requirements under
firm contract
04/08/10
Slide 24
Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station
2009 Performance
• Overall station capacity factor (“CF”) of 89%
• Produced over 30 million MWh
for only the 5th time ever since 1986
• Unit 1 was the world’s top generator in 2009
04/08/10
Slide 25
Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station
2010 Projected Performance
• Overall station CF of 87%
• Units 1 and 3 will be refueled
– Both outages will include
reactor vessel head
replacements
• Water reclamation facility
– Tertiary treatment outage in
Spring 2010
• Unit 3 planned outage to repair
a main generator cooling
system leak in early May
04/08/10
Slide 26
Newly constructed reactor vessel
head shown prior to shipment
Coal: Four Corners Power Plant
• Mine mouth plant
with full supply
contract with BHP
Navajo Mine
• Contract term
currently runs
through 2016
• It’s a key economic
driver for the
Navajo Nation
04/08/10
Slide 27
Coal: Cholla Power Plant
• Current inventory and
contract commitments
provide adequate coal
for the projected 2010
burn
• Primary supply source is
delivered by rail from
the El Segundo Mine
near Grants, NM
• Expected inventory
45-60 days
04/08/10
Slide 28
Natural Gas Pipelines Serving Arizona
04/08/10
Slide 29
Natural Gas: Transportation
• APS has sufficient firm
transport under contract to
ensure reliable supply of
natural gas to fully meet
system needs.
• Transwestern Pipeline has
begun delivery to Redhawk
and Sundance power plants.
• El Paso Natural Gas supplies
all APS natural gas plants.
• North Baja Pipeline in service
March 2010 serves Yucca
Units 5 & 6
04/08/10
Slide 30
Natural Gas: Supply
• Gas Supply
– Physical gas supply under
firm contracts with
reliable counterparties.
– Gas purchased on daily
spot market as needed to
adjust for fluctuations.
– Adequate supplies
available from
Permian/San Juan basins.
• Additional purchased power
available to ensure
reliability.
04/08/10
Slide 31
Renewable Resources
1. Aragonne Mesa, 90 MW (Wind)
5. Saguaro, 1 MW (Solar)
2. Salton Sea, 10 MW (Geothermal)
6. Snowflake, 14.5 MW (Biomass)
3. Prescott Airport, 2.9 MW (Solar)
7. Glendale LFG, 2.8 MW
4. STAR Center, 1.8 MW (Solar)
8. High Lonesome, 97 MW
(Wind)
Prescott
Snowflake
3
Salton
Sea
2
6
Glendale
Mountainair
7
4
Phoenix
5
Tucson
04/08/10
Slide 32
1
8
Santa Rosa
Renewables – Annual Production
04/08/10
Slide 33
Distributed Energy Systems
• 2002 – 2008: 2,412 installations (~ 8.5 MW/dc)
• 2009: 3,070 installation (~ 12.8 MW/dc)
– $32.6 million incentive payments
– $38.6 million commitments
– Primarily “rooftop” photovoltaic and solar water heating,
260% increase over 2008.
• Expect continued dramatic growth in DE incentive
program participation in 2010.
• 2010 1st Quarter: 862 installations + 1,551
reservations
– $5.8 million incentive payments
– $30.2 million commitments
04/08/10
Slide 34
Loads and Resources 2010
Tom Glock
Director, Power Operations
04/08/10
Slide 35
APS Existing Generation
Fuel Source
04/08/10
Slide 36
Capacity - MW
Nuclear
1,146
Coal
1,747
Gas Combined Cycle
1,918
Gas/Oil CT, Steam
1,464
Solar
3
Total
6,278
Renewable Resources
Peak
Resource
Contribution
Aragonne Mesa Wind
16.1
High Lonesome Wind
11.5
Salton Sea CE Turbo
10.0
SWMP Biomass
14.5
Glendale Landfill Biogas
2.6
Solar Generation
2.9
Total (MW)
57.6
04/08/10
Slide 37
Capacity
90.0
97.0
10.0
14.5
2.8
5.7
220.0
Generation Resources
Existing Generation
Long-term Contracts
6,278
PacifiCorp Exchange
SRP - Firm
Reliability RFP Purchases
Demand Response Contract
Market Contracts for ED3
Renewable Contracts
480
36
1,710
28
90
55
Subtotal
2,399
Short-term Market Contracts
Total Resources
04/08/10
Slide 38
Capacity (MW)
75
8,752
APS System Peak Loads
7,202 MW
Forecast
7,254 MW
Forecast
7,146 MW
-2.2%
7,026 MW
7,218 MW
7,059 MW
Actual
Actual
Forecast
(Net of DSM &
EE reductions)
2008
04/08/10
Slide 39
2009
2010
87 MW DSM &
Energy
Efficiency
Reductions
2010 Peak Generation
Resources and Load
Planned Margin
Planned Reserve Margin to
manage uncertainties:
1593 MW=23%
1. Load forecast uncertainties
a. Extreme Weather
b. Economic Changes
8,652 MW
7,059 MW
2. Multiple generator outages
3.Transmission outages
Resources
04/08/10
Slide 40
Peak Load
APS/SRP Maximum Load
Serving Capability, Phoenix Valley
MW
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
11,744
11,622
11,465
13,000
13,000
13,400
Margin
1935
Actual
Actual
11,168
11,489
Planning
Criteria
865
2008
2009
Capability
04/08/10
Slide 41
2010
Load
Yuma Area Peak Loads
425 MW
Forecast
403 MW
Actual
2008
04/08/10
Slide 42
431 MW
Forecast
0.5 %
404 MW
Actual
2009
406 MW
Forecast
2010
Yuma Area Maximum
Load Serving Capability
MW
600
565
Forecast
565
Forecast
Forecast
Margin
431
406
194
425
Actual
Actual
403
404
Planning
Criteria
97
2008
2009
Capability
04/08/10
Slide 43
2010
Load
Contingency
Planning
04/08/10
Slide 44
Training and Drills
• Backup Center Testing
April - May
• Regional Black Start Drill
March
• Exercise Load Curtailment Tools
March - May
• Summer Studies (including fire corridors)
May
• Transmission Path Operations
May
• Emergency Operations Training
May
6/27/20163/24/09
State Wide Operations
Coordination
• Procedure developed by APS/SRP/WAPA/TEP
• Starting May 15th, each Monday, more as needed
• Wild fire Command Center participation
• APS/SRP/WAPA/TEP Coordinated Operations
Conference Call
04/08/10
Slide 46
State Wide Coordination
APS/SRP/WAPA/TEP Logistics Schedule
7 AM
9 AM
10 AM
04/08/10
Slide 47
Internal update on status of equipment and
field conditions for each utility
Conference call topics:
Planned/current generation outages
Planned/current transmission outages
Weather forecast
Load forecast
Forest fires
Internal meeting to determine action plan
based upon current events
Conclusions
04/08/10
Slide 48
APS is Well Prepared
• Generation resources are in place to meet
customer load and reserve requirements
• Transmission capacity in place to import
remote generation and purchases
• Distribution infrastructure improvements on
schedule to meet customer needs
• Plans in-place to respond to extreme
conditions
04/08/10
Slide 49