Local Area Planning Update to TRANSAC – March 11, 2015
1
Decision Rule - Matrix
Decision Rule Matrix - Example
Problem:
Mitigation:
Consequences
of Event
Idenify the Problem or event
Briefly describe the mitigation proposed
Raw
Rank
Units
Data
Factor
MW
Affected
Risk of Event
None
Overall Risk
None
Cost
Solution Duration
Discussion
Load
Describe problem
conditions
Conseq X Risk =
Comment
Note 1
Describe load lost, voltage or thermal problems, etc
Note 2
Describe under what conditions the problem occurs:
normal, outage, load level, seasons affected, etc
Result
TPV Rev
Req
$ Cost
--
List major cost components
Years
Years
--
Cost/Duration = $/year
Any other notes or comments on problem or proposed mitigation.
Note 1: Calculate and enter consequences factor per details on priority matrix
Note 2: Calculate and enter risk factor per details on priority matrix
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Decision Rule - Example
Decision Rule Matrix
Problem:
Mitigation:
Low Voltage Helena - Three Rivers Area 100 kV System
Option A: Cap Banks at E Helena, Three Rivers, Broadwater
Units
Consequence of
event
Risk
Con. X Risk
Cost
Solution Duration
Discussion
3
MW
Affected
Prob, Freq
of event
None
Raw
Data
Rank
Factor
53
105
Occurs now under
normal and outage
conditions at peak loads
105 X .25
0.25
Comment
No risk of lost load, but voltages below FERC 715
minimums under normal system conditions, peak load.
Because problem occurs now under normal system
conditions, but only at peak load, risk factor is 25%.
26.3
TPV Rev
Req
$2.1M
--
50 MVAR E Helena, 25 MVAR Three Rivers, 10
MVAR at Broadwater @ $25K/MVAR
Years
15+
--
Cost/Duration = 2.1/15 = $0.14M/year
Installation of these cap banks provide a valid solution through 2023. E Helena and Three Rivers subs
well developed and should accommodate cap banks, but new sub may be required at Broadwater or
close vicinity. Solution could be staged in over time.
Prioritizing Critical Problems
Consequence Factors
Consequences Factor = (Stability + Thermal + Voltage Problems Factors) X Peak Load Affected
Consequences Rating Factors
Stability and Thermal Problems
4
Voltage Problems
Extreme – Interconnection wide Impacts, Widespread Outages
10
Outage
10
Severe – Division Wide Impacts, multiple outages
5
Very Low < 80%
5
Moderate – Localized Impacts, single outages
2
Low < FERC 715
2
Minor – Small Impacts, no outages
1
High
2
None – No problems observed
0
None
0
Prioritizing Critical Problems
Risk & Likelihood Factors
Risk Factor = System Cond. Factor X Seasonal Cond. Factor X Other Cond. Factor
Likelihood Factors
System Condition
Seasonal
Condition
Normal
.09995
S Peak
0.125 Normal – Occurs at N-0 Cond.
1.0
Outage 1
0.0005
W Peak
0.125 Major – Long line > 30 miles
1.0
0.25
Moderate – Medium Line
0.5
Light
0.25
Minor – Short Line < 3 miles
0.1
Average
All
0.75
1
Sub – Substation Equipment
0.033
Outage 2 0.00005 SW Peak
5
Other Conditions
Expected Consequences
Expected Consequences
Expected Consequences = Consequences Factor X Risk Factor
Expected Consequences are used to rank and prioritize
problems found. Additional factors may be used to
weight the expected consequences, taking into account:
•
•
•
6
Timing of a problem (far into the future could be ranked lower)
Different Contingencies that create the same problem (a
problem that could occur due to two different outages can be
ranked higher).
Additional Seasonal variations or other factors.
Uncertainty Scenarios
Uncertainty Scenarios
Suggestions:
•
High Wind System Wide
– Existing Projects dispatched to capacity
•
Loss of Thermal Plants
– Heavy Imports, Heavy Summer
•
Loss of Hydros
– Extreme Winter Conditions
•
•
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Extreme Localized Growth
Other?
Next Steps
Quarters 6 & 7
•
•
•
Finalize Mitigation Plans under review or in progress
Run Uncertainty Scenarios
Perform Reactive Resource Assessment
Quarter 8
• Send out Draft of “The Book” for stakeholder review
• Conduct Public Meetings
• Finalize “The Book” and close out the 2014/2015 Local Area
Planning Cycle
8
Questions?
9
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