THE STATE OF THE FUTURE IN EGYPT,
2011
Major and Minor Changes
(1) The Popular Uprise In Egypt,
and Egypt 2020 Real Time Delphi Study.
(2) The Democracy Spring In the Arab Region.
(3) Future Studies And Research Potentials
In Northern Sudan And Yemen States.
(4) The Millennium Project 15 Global Challenges
Addressed On Friday’s Sermons And In the Public Media.
(5) SOF 2010, 2011 Arabic Version Collaboration
(Egypt, Kuwait, Dubai)
1
THE POPULAR UPRISE
AND
EGYPT 2020 RT-Delphi STUDY
Presented By
Kamal Z. M. Shaeer, Nedaa Ezzat , and Omneya Hamza
World Future Society Annual Conference,
Millennium Project Planning Committee
July 7-10, 2011
Vancouver, Canada
2
Produced By
Cairo Node of the Millennium Project,
Egypt Arab Futures Research Association,
And the Collaborative Partners, IDSC, ACED
3
Introduction
4
STATE OF
WILDCARD* FUTURE CHANGES
“ Low-Probability, High-Impact Changes”
 In-calculable, unexpected,
high uncertainty.
 Movement, Riot, Uprising,
or Historical Revolution ?!
 Out of the Blue?!
(Unknown, Metaphysical,
Supernatural)
 Out of the Black ?! (Man’s Plot
,Man’s Plan)
 Revolutionaries?! (legal, illegal)
 Scenarios?!
*W. Warren Wager, 1996: Encyclopedia of the Future, Kurian GT and Moliter G TT, eds
5
NATIONS OF WILDCARD CHANGES [1979, 89, 91]
 The Persian Spring , 1979
 The European Spring, 1989
Democratization of Eastern Europe.
Fall of Berlin’s Wall, reunification of Germany.
 The Breakup of Soviet Union, 1991
“Most visionaries failed to plan for, a few scattered visionaries
considered the ramifications, thus gained superior position in the
emerging changing markets”*
*W. Warren Wagar , 1996
6
NATIONS IN WILDCARD CHANGES [2011]
The Arab Spring,
2011
Democratization Revolutions, Of North Africa and the Middle East
Most visionaries failed to plan for, only the authors of the State of the
Future , 2010; of the Millennium Project reported:
“ The growing gap between recent setbacks in political rights,
and the emergence of global democratic consciousness , driven
by new means of communication and growing interdependence”
(SOF 2010 , p 18)
7
Egypt
8
Interim Constitution
C. Referendum
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb- Jan 11th The Ousting Friday
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th”Anger Friday”
Jan- Jan 25t th “the Uprise day”
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
9
Humanity
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb-11th
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th
Jan-25th
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
Bread
Freedom
Dignity
10
Suffering from Inflation
and lack of the day to day Law wasn’t applied in all
life necessities
scenarios
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb-11th
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th
Jan-25th
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
11
Plans for Gamal Mubarak
to rule after his dad
Shutting down The Internet and
Mobile Services
Hundreds of thousand
demonstrated peacefully faced
with violence from the police
forces.
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb-11th
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th
Jan-25th
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
Police forces were withdrawn
from the streets, and the military
was deployed. curfew was
declared a day after.
12
After Mubarak made another televised
address and offered several concessions
on the 1st of Feb-11
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb-11th
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th
Jan-25th
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
Violence escalated as waves of Mubarak supporters
met anti-government protesters, and some Mubarak
supporters rode on camels and horses into Tahrir
Square, reportedly wielding swords and sticks.
13
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb-11th
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th
Jan-25th
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
11th of Feb-11
“Friday of Departure”
14
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb-11th
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th
Jan-25th
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
15
“1st revolution were protestors clean the streets after them”
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb-11th
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th
Jan-25th
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
Ahmed Shafik stepped
down as Prime Minister
and was replaced by
Essam Sharaf.
16
State Security Intelligence (SSI) buildings were
raided across Egypt by protesters
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb-11th
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th
Jan-25th
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
17
The constitutional referendum was held and passed by 77.27%
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb-11th
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th
Jan-25th
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
18
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb-11th
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th
Jan-25th
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
19
Parts of the Interior Ministry building catch fire during police
demonstrations outside
The Egyptian Cabinet orders a law
criminalizing protests and strikes that
hampers work at private or public
establishments. Under the new law, anyone
organizing or calling for such protests will be
sentenced to jail and/or a fine of LE500,000
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb-11th
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th
Jan-25th
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
20
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb-11th
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th
Jan-25th
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
"Save the Revolution"
Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators filled Tahrir Square for the largest protest in weeks,
demanding that the ruling military council move faster to dismantle lingering aspects of the old
regime.[123] Protestors demanded trial for Hosni Mubarak, Gamal Mubarak, Ahmad Fathi Sorour,
Safwat El-Sherif and Zakaria Azmi as well.
21
May-27th
Apr-1st
Mar-23rd
Mar-22nd
Mar-19th
Mar-5th
Mar-3rd
Feb-12th
Feb-11th
Feb-2nd
Jan-28th
Jan-25th
Before 25th Jan-11
Egypt Revolution Timeline
"Second Friday of Anger"
•
•
Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators filled
Tahrir Square, besides tens of thousands in each of
Alexandra, Suez, Ismailia, Gharbeya and other
areas; in the largest demonstrations since ousting
Mubarak's Regime. Protestors
Demanded No Military Trials for Civilians, the
Egyptian Constitution to be made before the
Parliament Elections and for all the old regime gang
and those who killed protestors in January and
February to be put on fair Trial
22
THE STATE OF EGYPT, 2010
 Chronically Hesitant, Despotic, and Corrupt Ruling Regimes
(from foreign to national, civic to military,
socialist to capitalist, reformative to corruptive )
 Declined and Marginalized Regional and International
Influence of Egypt.
 Slowly Developing Economy and Population
(unemployment, social injustice, overpopulation )
Prevailing Triad of: Poverty, Illiteracy, and Ill-Health
23
THE STATE OF EGYPT, 2011
 Towards an Egyptian age of Renaissance of Thinking \to Chart the Future.
 Would Egypt invent the first 21st century new form of democracy ?
 Egypt 2020 RT-Delphi Study
 Developments that may shape the future of Egypt
 What would insure the revolution momentum?
 What would counter the revolution spirit?
24
EGYPT 2020 RT-DELPHI STUDY
THIRTY-FOUR DEVELOPMENTS
THAT MIGHT SHAPE THE FUTURE OF EGYPT
As listed by,
their average likelihood to be achieved by 2020
As rated by ,
Panel invited by the Cairo Node of the Millennium Project
As expressed by the public opinion and media
Al-Ahram weekly, The Egyptian Gazette newspapers..etc
25
Likelihood
Priority
Popular Support
Linear (Popular Support)
Linear (Priority)
Linear (Likelihood)
High speed Internet access for at least 75% of population.
Freedom for all to establish political parties.
Functional illiteracy rate reduced by 50%.
Sufficient safe drinking water for all.
Freedom: discussions of issues of tolerance and values exist in all…
Sufficient food for all with adequate reserves.
Standard of living for all citizens increases 50%.
Over 50% reduction in suicide rate among the youth.
Public option poll finds over 50% of the public believes a renaissance…
Rich-poor gap reduced by 50%.
Equal pay for equal jobs between men and women.
Establish Win-Win relation between Egypt and Nile-Basin countries.
Free and transparent voting in election campaigns.
Very active tele-Egypt connecting Egyptians overseas to development…
Most acknowledge a new sense of citizenry and nation loyalty…
Freedom House (an organization that rates countries' freedom)…
Basic health services accessible to all.
Political violence essentially ended.
No sectarian and minority violent incidents reported for over six…
Public option poll finds over 50% of the public are happy with the new…
Corruption reduced by 50%.
Sanitary sewage access for all.
Social class and values conflicts are essentially abolished.
NGOs certify respect for citizens' basic rights by international standards.
WHO certifies continued progress in all basic health standards.
Educational objective to increase students' intelligence (brain…
Illegal immigration rate reduced by 50%.
Resolution of conflicts over modernism vs. fundamentalism.
Air, water, and land pollution decrease by 30%.
Renewable energy reaches 20% of the electricity generation mix.
Micro-finance and small business development accessible to all.
Noticeable reduction in business influence in political and economic life.
Population growth rate reduced below 1%.
At least 30% of Parliament and Cabinet are women.
0
26
20
40
60
80
100
120
INSURING THE REVOLUTIONARY
SPIRIT AND MOMENTUM
 Continued persistent uprising and peaceful demonstrations in
“Friday's million marches”, whenever required.
 making real gains politically, socially, economically and spiritually.
 defending their rights.
 confronting despotic regime forces.
 Old power structures have to be eliminated, or at least weakened.
 New power has to be institutionalized, fair balanced division, sharing
and control of power.
 Establish one or two parties for the civic state.
27
INSURING THE REVOLUTIONARY
SPIRIT AND MOMENTUM [Cont’d]
 Fast and sustainable successes in socio-economic development.
 Tough and drastic lawful measures to fend off sectarian clashes and
calm down religious tensions (within the framework of law ).
 Participation of the public and private sectors , in adopting the
values of the revolution, and supporting social solidarity.
 Change the tactics of the revolutionary movement and discourse, to
identify and present key issues for the future, to the people allover
the country.
28
COUNTERING
THE REVOLUTIONARY SPIRIT
 Re-emergence of political corruption, among political parties by former
politicians of the former regime.
 Creating state of unrest, by uncontrollable reactions, for the ruling
Military Council, to use violence.
 External turmoil emerging from the neighboring countries.
 External interference of some countries, to achieve certain objectives.
 Lack of commitment by the government pledges.
 Divisions with and among the revolutionaries.
 Resorting to foreign aid with tough preconditions, to avoid national
bankruptcy.
29
SCENARIOS
 Democratic Majority State, Despite Despotic Opposition Minority
(Plausible)
 Military Oligarchy Facing Civic Anarchy
(Possible)
 Theocratic Not Secular State
 (Least probable)
30
Egypt 2020 RT-DELPHI Study
Pros
Cons
Detailed and Covering all
the aspects
Very long especially in the given
on going changes.
Way Forward
•
Continue the study for 1 year.
•
Host the questionnaire on EAFRA website for better
follow up and regular analysis on the results.
•
Shorter questionnaires will be formulated each covering
a certain topic and will be sent to the experts over a
period of time to cover all the up coming changes.
31
Egypt 2020 RT-DELPHI Study
Is Still Ongoing at the time of printing.
Those interested in the continuing study,
should contact Dr. Kamal Zaki Mahmoud Shaeer,
Chair of The Millennium Project Node in Egypt
and the Egyptian-Arab Futures Research Association
at
kzmahmoud@hotmail.com.
www.eafra.org
32
EAFRA new Website
To Interact with the
Youth
Questionnaires and its
Data base
33
‫شكـــــــرا‬
‫‪THANK YOU‬‬
‫‪34‬‬
Rank
Item
Popular
Support
Priority
Likelihood
1
High speed Internet access for at least 75% of
population.
9.60
83.89
92.22
2
Freedom for all to establish political parties.
9.10
83.56
90.10
3
Functional illiteracy rate reduced by 50%.
8.67
95.75
88.50
4
Sufficient safe drinking water for all.
8.20
98.75
86.89
5
Freedom: discussions of issues of tolerance and
values exist in all media (TV, Radio, press,
Internet).
9.07
Sufficient food for all with adequate reserves.
7.75
6
80.85
96.71
18
Political violence essentially ended.
7.56
88.63
80.11
19
No sectarian and minority violent incidents
reported for over six months.
7.10
99.25
79.75
20
Public option poll finds over 50% of the public are
happy with the new political and social regimes.
9.15
86.71
79.65
21
Corruption reduced by 50%.
7.20
94.22
78.50
22
Sanitary sewage access for all.
7.67
90.63
78.13
23
Social class and values conflicts are
essentially abolished.
7.50
79.67
76.00
24
NGOs certify respect for citizens' basic
rights by international standards.
8.23
83.30
74.82
85.33
84.86
7
Standard of living for all citizens increases 50%.
7.44
92.25
84.71
8
Over 50% reduction in suicide rate among the
youth.
8.50
82.00
84.44
25
WHO certifies continued progress in all
basic health standards.
7.89
93.75
74.75
9
Public option poll finds over 50% of the public
believes a renaissance has begun in Egypt.
9.30
82.88
84.25
26
Educational objective to increase students'
intelligence (brain functioning).
7.44
95.25
74.38
10
Rich-poor gap reduced by 50%.
8.22
95.00
83.88
27
Illegal immigration rate reduced by 50%.
7.70
80.38
74.00
11
Equal pay for equal jobs between men and
women.
8.78
76.50
83.75
28
Resolution of conflicts over modernism vs.
fundamentalism.
7.10
83.44
72.78
12
Establish Win-Win relation between Egypt and
Nile-Basin countries.
8.90
100.00
83.56
29
Air, water, and land pollution decrease by
30%.
8.00
86.00
71.75
13
Free and transparent voting in election
campaigns.
8.78
96.50
83.10
30
Renewable energy reaches 20% of the electricity
generation mix.
7.70
91.11
71.63
Very active tele-Egypt connecting Egyptians
overseas to development process back home.
8.10
31
Micro-finance and small business development
accessible to all.
7.60
75.89
67.67
32
Noticeable reduction in business influence in
political and economic life.
7.50
86.00
65.60
33
Population growth rate reduced below 1%.
8.40
95.44
65.00
34
At least 30% of Parliament and Cabinet are
women.
7.30
64.78
64.44
14
15
16
17
Most acknowledge a new sense of citizenry and
nation loyalty particularly among the youth
9.20
Freedom House (an organization that rates
countries' freedom) changes Egypt's status from
''not free'' to ''free.''
9.60
Basic health services accessible to all.
7.30
90.67
88.67
92.22
93.75
82.22
82.10
81.27
81.00
35