Public Opinion
Learning Objective 1:
Compare and contrast the
advantages and
disadvantages that public
opinion polling play in the
political process.
History of Polls

Polls first used in early 20th C. for market
research to help make products more
appealing

George Gallup began using polling for
other purposes in 1936, and applied
techniques to public opinion. (Gallup Poll)
Scientific Polls (Cont’d)
Uses of Polls (Advantages)




Informing the public
Informing Candidates
Informing Office-Holders
Making election night projections through use of exit
polls
Types of Publics

Elites: Those with disproportionate amount of
political resources

Attentive: those with an active interest in gov’t
and politics

Mass: those with little interest in gov’t and
politics
Types of Opinions

Stable: change very little (death penalty)

Fluid: change frequently (presidential popularity)

Consensus: shared by 75% of the people or more
(balanced budget)

Polarized: shared by less than 75% (gun control)
Measurement of Public Opinion



By elections: deceiving; does not tell us WHY people voted as
they did
By straw (informal) polls; inaccurate
By scientific polls

Construction

population to be measured

Selection of sampling
1)
Through random means: equal chance of being selected
(census tract)
2)
National polls require 1500-2000 respondents
3)
Sampling error: expressed in terms of +/- terms
Scientific Polls (Cont’d)
Abuses of Polls (Disadvantages)
 “Horse Race” mentality emphasized during campaigns
at expense of issues
 Pandering to whims of public by candidates and officeholders
 Early projections from exit polls may discourage voter
turnout, esp. in West

Election 2000 demonstrated problems of exit polls


Early projection may have discouraged turnout in pandhandle of
state of FLA.
Flawed data from the company with which all major networks had
contracted led to flawed projections.
Public Awareness and Interest in Politics


Secondary in importance of most (esp. mass public)
Surveys show substantial lack of political knowledge on
part of the public:

Identifying political figures (e.g. congressman, senator, chief
justice)

Identifying key issues, e.g. in 1982 after years of debate, 1/3 of
adults indicated they had never heard of ERA