PTK Course for Local Governments, UTM, Skudai, 2025/11/2008 RESEARCH MANAGEMENT DATA ANALYSIS Assoc. Prof. Dr. Abdul Hamid b. Hj. Mar Iman, Centre for Real Estate Studies, Faculty of Geoinformation Engineering & Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. E-mail: hamidiman@utm.my Web: http://ac.utm.my/web/hamidiman (C) Copyrights of the Author. No part of materials in these slides should be extracted in any electronic or non-electronic method without permission from the Author. 1 Definition A systematic programme of planning , coordinating, implementing, and controlling knowledge process through information development, with a view to obtaining a strategic fit between an organisation’s goals and its internal capabilities. It is basically a practice-related research management. The nature of the research may be fundamental, developmental, or commercial. PTK Course for Local Governments, UTM, Skudai, 20-25/11/2008 2 Purpose of Research Intelligence purposes Ad-hoc or planned problem-solving. Strengthening overall research programs within a particular organisation. Enhancing organisational capabilities, e.g. → medium-term & long-term planning, strategy, decision-making ability, etc. Else? PTK Course for Local Governments, UTM, Skudai, 20-25/11/2008 3 Basic Structure of Research Unit The ‘state of affair’ of each component of this structure? Institutional links Resources Targets (e.g. groups) Supervisory system Administration, rules & regulations Research training program PTK Course for Local Governments, UTM, Skudai, 20-25/11/2008 What, how, how much, when, and who to improve? Possible outcomes & obstacles? 4 Developing Research Skills Organisational research philosophy. Strategic research areas. Proper administrative structure. Adequate & good facilities. Qualified staff. Research training: * Research programs; * Research methodology; * Intelligence gathering & ad-hoc research; * Information management. Funding. PTK Course for Local Governments, UTM, Skudai, 20-25/11/2008 5 Organisational Research Philosophy Go beyond administrative functions. Producing practice-related research outcomes. Fulfilling organisational mission. Directed research: * Problem-solving research. * Industry orientation (applied research), aligning with government’s policies & within the ambit of organisational policies. PTK Course for Local Governments, UTM, Skudai, 20-25/11/2008 6 What is Directed Research ♦ A research that is pivoted on the riority areas of an organisation in which it has the expertise, resources, and institutional set-up readily available. ♦ To help an organisation focus on some strategic research areas, reflecting its research niches and strength and thus giving it competitive advantages in those areas. ♦ These focus areas are the “shooting targets” at which Key Performance Indicators (KPI) are used to gauge institutional achievement. ♦ Can be implemented in collaboration with universities through Intensification of Research in Priority Areas (IRPA), E-Science, Technofund, and the National Property Research Coordinator (NAPREC), etc. PTK Course for Local Governments, UTM, Skudai, 20-25/11/2008 7 Strategic Research Areas Need for strategic research planning. Purpose: to identify research niches, strengths, and thus, comparative advantages. Should be established at departmental level. Example: * Set research mission, goal & objectives, portfolio & functional strategies; * Establish two-tier research programs: (1) priority research; (2) fundamental research; * Documentation of departmental strategy. PTK Course for Local Governments, UTM, Skudai, 20-25/11/2008 8 Strategic Research Planning PTK Course for Local Governments, UTM, Skudai, 20-25/11/2008 9 Assoc. Prof. Dr. Abdul Hamid b. Hj. Mar Iman Centre for Real Estate Studies Faculty of Engineering and Geoinformation Science Universiti Tekbnologi Malaysia Skudai, Johor Objectives Overall: Reinforce your understanding from the main lecture Specific: * Concepts of data analysis * Some data analysis techniques * Some tips for data analysis What I will not do: * To teach every bit and pieces of statistical analysis techniques Data analysis – “The Concept” Approach to de-synthesizing data, informational, and/or factual elements to answer research questions Method of putting together facts and figures to solve research problem Systematic process of utilizing data to address research questions Breaking down research issues through utilizing controlled data and factual information Categories of data analysis Narrative (e.g. laws, arts) Descriptive (e.g. social sciences) Statistical/mathematical (pure/applied sciences) Audio-Optical (e.g. telecommunication) Others Most research analyses, arguably, adopt the first three. The second and third are, arguably, most popular in pure, applied, and social sciences Statistical Methods Something to do with “statistics” Statistics: “meaningful” quantities about a sample of objects, things, persons, events, phenomena, etc. Widely used in social sciences. Simple to complex issues. E.g. * correlation * anova * manova * regression * econometric modelling Two main categories: * Descriptive statistics * Inferential statistics Descriptive Statistics Use sample information to explain/make abstraction of population “phenomena”. Common “phenomena”: * Association (e.g. σ1,2.3 = 0.75) * Tendency (left-skew, right-skew) * Causal relationship (e.g. if X, then, Y) * Trend, pattern, dispersion, range Used in non-parametric analysis (e.g. chi-square, t-test, 2-way anova) Basically non-parametric Examples of “abstraction” of phenomena 350,000 300,000 No. of houses 200000 150000 100000 50000 200,000 1991 150,000 2000 100,000 50,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 32635.8 38100.6 42468.1 47684.7 48408.2 61433.6 77255.7 97810.1 Demand f or shop shouses (unit s) 71719 73892 85843 95916 101107 117857 134864 86323 Supply of shop houses (unit s) 85534 85821 90366 101508 111952 125334 143530 154179 0 Ba tu J o Pa ho h a rB t ah r Kl u Ko ua ta ng Ti n M ggi er si ng M u Po ar n Se tian ga m at 0 Loan t o propert y sect or (RM 250,000 million) Year (1990 - 1997) District Trends in property loan, shop house dem and & supply 200 Price (RM/sq. ft of built area) 14 10 8 6 4 2 0 180 160 140 120 70 -7 4 60 -6 4 50 -5 4 40 -4 4 30 -3 4 20 -2 4 100 10 -1 4 04 Proportion (%) 12 80 0 20 40 60 80 Age Category (Years Old) Demand (% sales success) 100 120 Examples of “abstraction” of phenomena 200 50.00 180 Distance from Rakaia (km) 160 140 120 % prediction error 40.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 -20.00 -40.00 -60.00 -80.00 -100.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 100 80 20 40 60 80 Demand (% sales success) 100 120 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 Distance from Ashurton (km) Inferential statistics Using sample statistics to infer some “phenomena” of population parameters Common “phenomena”: cause-and-effect * One-way r/ship Y = f(X) * Multi-directional r/ship Y1 = f(Y2, X, e1) * Recursive Y2 = f(Y1, Z, e2) Use parametric analysis Y1 = f(X, e1) Y2 = f(Y1, Z, e2) Dep=9t – 215.8 Examples of relationship Dep=7t – 192.6 Coefficientsa Model 1 (Cons tant) Tanah Bangunan Ans ilari Umur Flo_go Uns tandardized Coefficients B Std. Error 1993.108 239.632 -4.472 1.199 6.938 .619 4.393 1.807 -27.893 6.108 34.895 89.440 a. Dependent Variable: Nilaism Standardized Coefficients Beta -.190 .705 .139 -.241 .020 t 8.317 -3.728 11.209 2.431 -4.567 .390 Sig. .000 .000 .000 .017 .000 .697 Which one to use? Nature of research * Descriptive in nature? * Attempts to “infer”, “predict”, find “cause-and-effect”, “influence”, “relationship”? * Is it both? Research design (incl. variables involved). E.g. Outputs/results expected * research issue * research questions * research hypotheses At post-graduate level research, failure to choose the correct data analysis technique is an almost sure ingredient for thesis failure. Common mistakes in data analysis Wrong techniques. E.g. Issue Data analysis techniques Wrong technique Correct technique To study factors that “influence” visitors to come to a recreation site Likert scaling based on interviews Data tabulation based on open-ended questionnaire survey “Effects” of KLIA on the development of Sepang Likert scaling based on interviews Descriptive analysis based on ex-ante post-ante experimental investigation Note: No way can Likert scaling show “cause-and-effect” phenomena! Infeasible techniques. E.g. How to design ex-ante effects of KLIA? Development occurs “before” and “after”! What is the control treatment? Further explanation! Abuse of statistics. E.g. Simply exclude a technique Common mistakes (contd.) – “Abuse of statistics” Issue Data analysis techniques Example of abuse Correct technique Measure the “influence” of a variable on another Using partial correlation (e.g. Spearman coeff.) Using a regression parameter Finding the “relationship” between one variable with another Multi-dimensional scaling, Likert scaling Simple regression coefficient To evaluate whether a model fits data better than the other Using R2 Many – a.o.t. Box-Cox 2 test for model equivalence To evaluate accuracy of “prediction” Using R2 and/or F-value of a model Hold-out sample’s MAPE “Compare” whether a group is different from another Multi-dimensional scaling, Likert scaling Many – a.o.t. two-way anova, 2, Z test To determine whether a group of factors “significantly influence” the observed phenomenon Multi-dimensional scaling, Likert scaling Many – a.o.t. manova, regression How to avoid mistakes - Useful tips Crystalize the research problem → operability of it! Read literature on data analysis techniques. Evaluate various techniques that can do similar things w.r.t. to research problem Know what a technique does and what it doesn’t Consult people, esp. supervisor Pilot-run the data and evaluate results Don’t do research?? Principles of analysis Goal of an analysis: * To explain cause-and-effect phenomena * To relate research with real-world event * To predict/forecast the real-world phenomena based on research * Finding answers to a particular problem * Making conclusions about real-world event based on the problem * Learning a lesson from the problem Principles of analysis (contd.) Data can’t “talk” An analysis contains some aspects of scientific reasoning/argument: * Define * Interpret * Evaluate * Illustrate * Discuss * Explain * Clarify * Compare * Contrast Principles of analysis (contd.) An analysis must have four elements: * Data/information (what) * Scientific reasoning/argument (what? who? where? how? what happens?) * Finding (what results?) * Lesson/conclusion (so what? so how? therefore,…) Example Principles of data analysis Basic guide to data analysis: * “Analyse” NOT “narrate” * Go back to research flowchart * Break down into research objectives and research questions * Identify phenomena to be investigated * Visualise the “expected” answers * Validate the answers with data * Don’t tell something not supported by data Principles of data analysis (contd.) Shoppers Male Old Young Female Old Young Number 6 4 10 15 More female shoppers than male shoppers More young female shoppers than young male shoppers Young male shoppers are not interested to shop at the shopping complex Data analysis (contd.) When analysing: * Be objective * Accurate * True Separate facts and opinion Avoid “wrong” reasoning/argument. E.g. mistakes in interpretation. Some Principles of Statistical Methods in Data Analysis What is Statistics “Meaningful” quantities about a sample of objects, things, persons, events, phenomena, etc. Something to do with “data” Widely used in various discipline of sciences. Used to solve simple to complex issues. Three main categories: * Descriptive statistics * Inferential statistics * Probability theory Forms of “Statistical” Relationship Relationship can be non-parametric or parametric E.g. of non-parametric r/ships: * Correlation * Contingency E.g. of parametric → cause-and-effect * Causal * Feedback * Multi-directional * Recursive The “parametric” categories are normally dealt with through regression Non-Parametric Data Analysis Methods – A Summary Scale of measurement One-sample Two independent Sample K independent Sample Measures of Association Independent Sample Single treatment repeat Measures Multiple treatment repeat Measures Nominal Binomial test; one-way contingency Table McNemar test Cochrane Q Test Two-way contingency Table Contingenc y Table Contingenc y Coefficients Ordinal Runs test Wilcoxon signed rank test Friedman test MannWhitney Test KruskalWallis Test Spearman rank Correlation Interval/ratio Z- or t-test of variance Paired t-test Repeat measures ANOVA Unpaired t-test; tests of variance ANOVA Regression, Pearson correlation, time series Parametric Analysis - Regression The significance of each variable to the model can be determined by looking at the “t” values. Coefficients(a) Unstandardized Coefficients Model 1 B (Constant) Std. Error 29680.695 2885.532 -705.817 38.491 NB211001 12374.064 NB211002 NB211003 Standardized Coefficients Beta t Sig. 10.286 .000 -.212 -18.337 .000 2176.815 .061 5.684 .000 -1094.891 1527.977 -.008 -.717 .474 -938.838 1136.671 -.010 -.826 .409 NB211005 12639.946 2139.489 .066 5.908 .000 NB211006 AGE 852.109 2535.266 .004 .336 .737 SQFT1 31.388 7.815 .039 4.016 .000 SQFT2 44.166 1.365 .595 32.349 .000 SQFT3 52.939 1.265 .808 41.857 .000 SQFT4 60.447 3.561 .164 16.974 .000 SQFT5 94.723 2.943 .312 32.186 .000 LAND75 11.788 .433 .303 27.240 .000 BATHS 7714.093 1338.204 .076 5.765 .000 POOL 13359.275 1184.469 .105 11.279 .000 10.750 3.137 .038 3.427 .001 GARAGE Rule of Thumb: “t” scores Should be 2.0 or greater. Nilai “t” seharusnya lebih Besar atau sama dengan 2,0 NB211002 NB211003 NB211006 are insignificant a Dependent Variable: SALEPRIC 34