Discrepant Beliefs About Quality and Taste February 4, 2014 STEPHEN A. SPILLER* HELEN BELOGOLOVA *Stephen A. Spiller is Assistant Professor of Marketing (e-mail: stephen.spiller@anderson.ucla.edu) and Helen Belogolova is a doctoral student (e-mail: helen.belogolova.2015@anderson.ucla.edu) at Anderson School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles. The authors thank Sanjog Misra, Danny Oppenheimer, Suzanne Shu, David Tannenbaum, Raphael Thomadsen, Elizabeth Webb, UCLA’s Behavioral Decision Making lab group, and participants in Wharton’s Decision Processes seminar for helpful comments and discussions, and especially Robert Zeithammer for assistance with the model. Any errors are the authors’. 1 Discrepant Beliefs About Quality and Taste Abstract: Consumers can represent sets of products as matters of (objective) quality or matters of (subjective) taste. We find substantial discrepancies among consumers in how they represent a given set. Compared to consumers who represent a set as a matter of quality, those who represent that same set as a matter of taste: a) believe that fewer consumers will choose the same option that they did; b) are more likely to refer to themselves when explaining their choice; c) are less willing to pay to trade their less-preferred option for their more-preferred option; and d) are less likely to use others’ choices to make inferences about the quality of unfamiliar options. Explaining why another consumer chose a different option (compared to the same option) increases the likelihood of representing the set as a matter of taste. This work challenges the idea that there are universally agreed upon domains of quality and taste and shows instead that these meaningful classifications vary across consumers. Keywords: taste, perceived consensus, inferences, representation 2 Is a student’s choice between an elite liberal arts college and a public state university a matter of quality or a matter of taste? Is a wine connoisseur’s choice between a bottle of Pinot Noir that received a 92 from Wine Spectator and a bottle of Merlot that received a 95 from The Wine Advocate a matter of excellence or a matter of personal preference? Is a cinephile’s choice between the latest superhero movie and the latest romantic comedy a matter of which is better or a matter of which she likes more? In the current work, we examine discrepancies in whether consumers represent a given set of options as a matter of quality or taste. Understanding how consumers represent choice sets is critical because their representations of the world affect their behaviors, beliefs, and inferences (e.g., Broniarczyk and Alba 1994; Cho and Schwarz 2008; Deval et al. 2013; Faro, McGill, and Hastie 2010; Legrenzi, Girotto, and Johnson-Laird 1993). We report six key findings. First, there is substantial disagreement between consumers as to whether any given set of options varies in terms of quality or taste. Second, consumers believe their chosen options are more popular when they represent the choice as a matter of quality (vs. taste). Third, consumers are more willing to pay for their more-preferred option over their lesspreferred option when they represent the choice as a matter of quality (vs. taste). Fourth, consumers use less self-referential language when explaining a choice that they represent as a matter of quality (vs. taste). Fifth, these representations are malleable: explaining why someone else made a different choice increases the likelihood of representing the choice as a matter of taste. Sixth, upon observing others’ choices, consumers are more likely to make inferences about which option is better when they represent the domain as a matter of quality (vs. taste). Each of the above findings holds even when the actual set of options is held constant. Below, we briefly review research suggesting that different consumers may represent the same sets differently. We then describe a simple stylized spatial model and develop hypotheses 3 about the consequences of using different representations. We provide evidence for these hypotheses across six studies. Throughout, we use “perceived objectivity” as shorthand to refer to the degree to which a consumer represents a given set of options as a matter of quality rather than taste. We use taste in its value-neutral sense, referring to matters of idiosyncratic fit or personal preference, not “good taste” or “bad taste.” PERCEIVED OBJECTIVITY AND SUBJECTIVITY The question of quality versus taste is, at its core, a question of perceived objectivity versus subjectivity. As individuals develop, their understandings about the nature of knowledge, and in particular whether a given domain is a matter of objectivity or subjectivity, change (Kuhn, Cheney, and Weinstock 2000; Carpendale and Chandler 1996). However, it is generally taken for granted by marketers and researchers that once consumers have reached adulthood, they can readily recognize and distinguish between domains of objectivity and domains of subjectivity. These differences between domains affect how people search for and interpret information. The sources sought for advice and preference for conformity vary between domains of knowledge and domains of preference (e.g., Goethals and Nelson 1973; Gorenflo and Crano 1989; Olson, Ellis, and Zanna 1983; Solomon, Pruitt, and Insko 1984; Spears, Ellemers, and Doosje 2009), but the knowledge versus preference distinction is usually assumed to vary across domains, not within domain. We propose that in addition to across-domain differences, there are also differences in perceived objectivity between individuals within any given domain. Although this issue has not been directly addressed in the marketing literature, there is suggestive evidence about within-domain differences from research on aesthetics and morality. 4 Olson et al. (1983; Ellis, Olson and Zanna 1983) informed some participants that physical attractiveness is an objective determination and others that it is a subjective determination. Objectivity instructions increased perceived consensus and reliance on consensus versus consistency information to resolve uncertainty, suggesting that the perceived objectivity of physical attractiveness is malleable. Goodwin and Darley (2008, 2012) assessed the perceived objectivity of domains traditionally seen as matters of taste (writers, musicians, speakers, etc.) as part of a study focused on the objectivity of moral beliefs. Although these domains tended to be represented as matters of taste, there was disagreement among participants about whether comparisons were matters of fact. Charters and Pettigrew (2003) found that some consumers explained their wine evaluations in terms of quality and others in terms of personal preference. We propose that consumers represent meaningful differences between quality and taste, and that these representations vary from person to person. Note that this need not be the case. Consumers could choose based on utility without representing quality and taste as sources of utility. If they do not represent the distinction between quality and taste, their responses and behaviors will not vary depending on their classification. However, if they do represent the distinction between quality and taste, their representations can explain a variety of correlates. A Stylized Model Consider two products X and Y sold for the same price, and a consumer with unit demand who prefers X to Y. We propose that all consumers perceive the two products to be differentiated, but they disagree whether the differentiation is a matter of quality or taste. For simplicity, assume consumers measure the difference between X and Y in terms of a continuous singledimensional attribute x scaled to a unit interval, such that X=1 and Y=0 (in other words, x is the measure of relative “x-ness” of the product). We propose that different consumers can have one 5 of two different representations of their own utility function: 1) We say that consumers believe the choice between X and Y represents a difference in quality when they believe that consumer i’s utility of a product located at x and priced at p to be U1(x;θ1) = θ1x – p, where θ1 is the monetary value of a unit increase in the attribute x when x represents quality (utility is measured in dollars). 2) We say that consumers believe the choice between X and Y represents a difference in taste when they believe that consumer i’s utility of a product located at x and priced at p to be U2(x;θ2,zi) = –θ2|x – zi| – p, where θ2 is the monetary value of a unit difference in attribute x when x represents taste, and zi is the perceived location of consumer i's ideal product. Each consumer believes that all consumers use the same representation, but that individual zi’s may vary (cf. Orhun and Urminsky 2013). This simple model allows us to make several predictions. These are discussed in the following sections, with psychological evidence for each. Perceived Consensus Quality differences exist independent of any given consumers’ preferences. If higher fuel efficiency is objectively better than lower fuel efficiency, all knowledgeable consumers will choose a car with higher fuel efficiency, all else held constant. If color is a matter of taste, the proportion of consumers choosing blue versus green will depend on the distribution of tastes. In terms of the model, consumer i who represents his preferences using R (where R is either 1 or 2 above) believes that he chose by maximizing utility UR. For matters of quality (R=1), the factors affecting utility U1 are not believed to vary by consumer, so consumers believe that everyone will make the same choice, and perceived consensus will be high. For matters of taste (R=2), one factor affecting utility U2 (the location of the ideal product zi) can vary by consumer, so consumers believe that different people may make different choices, and 6 perceived consensus will depend on the perceived distribution of tastes and generally be lower. People tend to believe that they see the world as it really is and that other reasonable people see the world the same way (Ross and Ward 1996; Pronin, Ross, and Gilovich 2004). Thus, a consumer who believes that manual transmission is objectively better than automatic transmission will believe that other consumers will recognize that it is better as well and so will also choose manual transmission. A consumer who represents the choice between manual transmission and automatic transmission as a matter of taste will recognize that others may hold different preferences and choose differently. People who represent a choice as a matter of quality will perceive a greater consensus than those who see a choice as a matter of taste (Ellis et al. 1983; Goodwin and Darley 2012). This relationship is likely bidirectional. Ellis and colleagues found that manipulating whether beauty was a matter of subjectivity or objectivity affected perceived consensus, and Goodwin and Darley found that varying the perceived consensus of whether a moral action was right or wrong affected its perceived objectivity. H1: Consumers who represent a given alternative as objectively better will perceive greater choice consensus than those who represent it as a matter of taste. Role of the Consumer in Choice Whether a choice set is represented as a matter of taste or quality will affect how consumers reason about their choices (regardless of whether the set truly is a matter of taste or quality). Products that vary in terms of objective quality may be rank ordered without referencing personal preferences; the consumer and her preferences are superfluous. Products that vary in terms of taste, however, necessitate a match between the product and the chooser. As a result, there will be fundamental differences in the language consumers use to explain their choices. Pennebaker and Francis (1996) found that when people write more personally involving 7 stories, they use more first-person pronouns. We argue that matters of taste are more personally involving than matters of quality. Holding constant the domain, consumers will use more firstperson pronouns when explaining choices that they represent as matters of taste than when explaining choices that they represent as matters of quality. Attribution theory (Kelley 1973) posits that people use the cues available to them to make causal judgments, and in particular that they may use different schema for matters of objectivity and matters of subjectivity. Kelley proposed that the situation is relied upon for objective truths whereas the person x situation interaction is relied upon for matters of taste. This will be reflected in language, given that referencing people increases the use of personal pronouns. In terms of the model, a consumer may explain a choice by describing the inputs into utility. For matters of quality (R=1), choice may be explained without reference to consumer i. For matters of taste, an explanation without reference to consumer i is incomplete because U2 depends on zi. Explanations for choices that are represented as matters of quality should include fewer selfreferences than explanations for choices that are represented as matters of taste. H2: Consumers who represent a given alternative as objectively better will use fewer first-person pronouns when explaining their own choices than those who represent it as a matter of taste. Willingness to Pay The amount that an individual is willing to pay for a product should depend on the utility that she receives from the product, but not on whether that utility is derived from quality or taste. That is, a consumer should be willing to pay as much as the product is worth to him or her. Although our simple model does not lead to a different prediction by itself, consumers are influenced by reference prices (Xia, Monroe, and Cox 2004), and are sometimes unwilling to pay 8 more for options that they would otherwise choose or prefer (Amir and Ariely 2007; Lichtenstein and Slovic 1971). Consumers find some sellers’ prices and price changes to be fairer than others (Bolton, Warlop, and Alba 2003; Kahneman, Knetsch, and Thaler 1986). Some of the factors that affect perceived fairness are particularly informative for the current research. Bolton et al. (2003) found that a price difference based on product quality was perceived to be fairer than a price difference based on geographic customer base (a matter of idiosyncratic fit). Kahneman et al. (1986) report a variety of contexts in which demand shocks are seen as unacceptable reasons to increase prices. Consumers report that it is unfair to raise the prices of snow shovels after a snowstorm, increase the price of a car when it is in high demand, or set higher prices merely because there are no near competitors. Most directly, consumers found it unfair for a landlord to raise rent on a tenant merely because the tenant had a strong preference for that location after accepting a nearby job. The preference for that unit was a matter of taste and not quality, and so the increase was perceived to be highly unfair. We propose that holding valuation constant, willingness to pay will vary according to the basis for that valuation. If the good has a high value because it is (represented as) a better product, then there is an acceptable reason to pay a higher price and consumers will be willing to pay more for their preferred options. In contrast, if the good has an equally high value because it is (represented as) a good fit, then there is no acceptable reason to pay a higher price and consumers will not be willing to pay more for their preferred options. H3: Consumers who represent a given alternative as objectively better will be more willing to pay to receive it instead of a different alternative than those who represent it as a matter of taste. 9 Reconciling Discrepant Choices We have argued that consumers represent choices as matters of quality and taste and that different consumers may represent the same choice in different ways. Are these representations malleable? Kuhn et al. (2000) argue that conceptualizations of knowledge change over time as individuals mature; we posit that these may change on a moment-to-moment basis. Olson et al. (1983) showed that people were able to shift their representation of beauty as objective or subjective when directed via explicit instructions. We propose that subtler manipulations can affect the representations of a variety of consumer domains. Specifically, we propose that people may change their representations when faced with others’ discrepant choices. There are (at least) three possible responses to learning that another consumer made a discrepant choice on a matter of quality. First, a consumer may recognize that he was wrong and shift his response to be more in line with the other’s response; in our model, this is given by replacing x with y = 1 – x. Second, individuals may deem that the other individual is mistaken or biased (e.g., Goodwin and Darley 2008; Ross and Ward 1995; Pronin et al. 2004); in our model, this requires no update, other than that others’ choices may be made with error. We propose a third resolution: individuals could recognize that neither consumer made a mistake, but change their representation of the choice set to be a matter of taste; in our model, this means changing one’s beliefs about one’s utility function from R=1 to R=2 to reconcile the choice set. Note that this is distinct from an effect of perceived consensus: even when consumers recognize that others may make different decisions, making sense of why another consumer made that discrepant choice is the active ingredient. H4: Making sense of why another consumer made a choice that differs from one’s own increases the likelihood of representing that choice as a matter of taste and 10 decreases the likelihood of representing that choice as a matter of quality. Consumer Inference Sometimes consumers are familiar with a domain but unfamiliar with a particular set of options from that domain. What can they learn about those options from observing others’ choices? The different models that consumers use to represent the world affect the inferences they draw about what underlies a given pattern of data. Just as a researcher who models choice data allowing for quality differences but no taste differences will come to a different set of conclusions about both products and consumers than a researcher who models choice data allowing for taste differences but no quality differences, so will two consumers who use those different representations of the world. In terms of the model, when z's and x’s are unknown, others’ choices are more informative about x’s for matters of quality than for matters of taste. Morris and Larrick (1995) prescribe a normative benchmark by which researchers can judge whether attributional judgments are discounted too much, the right amount, or not enough. They emphasize the role of prior beliefs. Someone who holds strong beliefs that John is clumsy may reasonably make a different set of attributions after observing John trip over a rug than someone else who holds strong beliefs that the rug is positioned in a hazardous way. Such prior beliefs have strong influences on consumer inferences. Lay theories can dominate observed relationships in the data in predicting how consumers will infer missing attribute values (Broniarczyk and Alba 1994); they can moderate the extent to which consumers infer judgments based on limited data (Faro et al. 2010); and they can lead to opposing inferences from the same data (Cho and Schwarz 2008; Deval et al. 2013). Thus, whether a choice set is represented as a matter of quality or a matter of taste determines what inferences consumers draw from others’ decisions. If a choice set is represented 11 as a matter of quality, all consumers should choose the same option from any subset, so one can combine choices made by different consumers to rank the options. If a choice set is represented as a matter of taste, consumers need not choose the same option from any subset, so one cannot combine choices from different consumers to rank the options without making additional assumptions. If Mary chose Brand A over Brand B and Paul chose Brand B over Brand C, the perceived likelihood that Lisa will choose Brand A over Brand C is a function of whether the domain is represented as a matter of quality or taste. H5: Consumers who represent a choice set as a matter of quality will be more likely to draw rank-order inferences from others’ choices than consumers who represent it as a matter of taste. The Studies Below, we report the results of six studies. The first three demonstrate differences in representations of brand pairs across a wide variety of consumer product domains. In Studies 1 and 2 we observe relationships among choice set representation and perceived consensus (H1), self-reference (H2), and willingness to pay (H3). In Study 3, we manipulate whether the participant has to explain another’s consistent or discrepant choice and observe the effect on the participant’s representation (H4). In Study 4, we examine how use of first-person pronouns, indicative of taste representations, is related to how consistent professional movie critics are in their evaluations of quality. In Studies 5 and 6, we examine how consumer inferences about the quality of unfamiliar options depend on whether that domain is represented as a matter of quality or taste (H5). 12 STUDIES 1 AND 2 Studies 1 and 2 test the relationships between perceived objectivity and perceived consensus, self-reference, and willingness to pay. We examine a broad range of choices within a substantively important domain: brand choice. Rather than cherry-picking particularly ambiguous examples, we deliberately vary the category by selecting leading brands from sixteen different product categories, ranging from beer to package delivery services to cars, to test whether these effects hold over a broad set of categories (e.g., Lynch 1982). Study 2 was conducted as a nearly exact replication of Study 1, so we describe it briefly. Study 1 Method Participants from Amazon’s Mechanical Turk (N = 200; 64 women, median age of 27) were recruited for this study. First, participants answered four questions about which of two branded products they would rather use if the products were equated on price (Choice). There were 16 total brand pairs, one pair from each of 16 categories, and each participant chose one brand from each of a randomly selected set of 4 pairs. These brands were selected as leading brands from 16 widely differing product categories (beer, clothing store, sedan, soda, smartphone, gas station, credit card, moisturizer, hotel, search engine, digital camera, television, fast food, shoes, laptop, and package delivery service). Materials for one category, soda, are given in Appendix A. Second, participants reported their strength of preference for each choice on a 1 to 7 scale from “Very weak” to “Very strong” (Preference Strength). Third, participants provided an open-ended explanation of why they made each choice that they did (Explanation). For each choice, participants reported whether one option was objectively better than the other or whether it was a matter of opinion (Perceived Objectivity); participants also had the 13 opportunity to report that they did not know enough to judge. There were four response options for each category: (1) “[Brand A] is objectively better than [Brand B]”; (2) “[Brand B] is objectively better than [Brand A]”; (3) “Neither one is objectively better, it is a matter of opinion”; (4) “I do not know enough about [Brand A] and [Brand B] to judge.” Note that participants never saw this item until after they had given all four explanations, so their explanations could not have been affected by this question. Next, participants indicated how many other participants out of 100 would choose the same option for each choice (Perceived Consensus). Participants then indicated how much they would be willing to pay to trade their less-preferred option for their more-preferred option in a specified context (WTP). Finally, participants completed the Ten Item Personality Inventory (Gosling, Rentfrow, and Swann 2003) and reported household income, sex, age, and ethnicity. Study 1 Results Descriptive Statistics. Overall, 39% of choices were classified as a matter of quality (participants chose 1 or 2 on perceived objectivity); 47% were classified as a matter of taste (participants chose 3 on perceived objectivity); and 14% were not classified due to a lack of knowledge (participants chose 4 on perceived objectivity). Unclassified choices are not included in the analyses below. See Figure 1 for classifications by domain for Studies 1, 2, and 3. Only 1% of responses indicated that the unchosen option was objectively better than the chosen option. More informative than the overall percentage of quality responses and taste responses is the extent of disagreement. Do all participants represent one choice as a matter of quality and another as a matter of taste, or do some participants represent one choice as a matter of quality and others represent that same choice as a matter of taste? Of the informed responses, the average minority response (the lesser of quality or taste responses, and therefore bounded 14 between 0 and 50%) was 35%, indicating significant disagreement for each choice. Insert Figure 1 about here There was evidence for commonalities across each participants’ four responses. To test this, we regressed the proportion of informed responses that were taste responses for three choices on a dummy indicating whether the fourth choice was classified as taste. We ran four such regressions, rotating the test choice. The excluded choice was a significant positive predictor (p < .05) in three out of four regressions and trending (p < .15) in the fourth. In other words, knowing how a participant responded in one domain was informative about how they would respond in the other three randomly chosen domains. This provides initial evidence that consumers who represent one set of choices as a matter of taste at a given point in time are also likely to represent other sets of choices at that same point in time as matters of taste. In each analysis below, we analyze the variable of interest as a function of whether the participant reported that the choice set was a matter of quality or taste, including fixed effects for choice category, random intercepts for participant, and an unstructured error covariance matrix. We also examine a second set of such models including fixed effects for which option the participant chose within the category and continuous measures of preference strength (except when preference strength was the dependent variable) and perceived consensus (except when preference strength or perceived consensus was the dependent variable). Note that including fixed effects for which option the participant chose also accounts for differences in actual consensus. Because each participant made choices from multiple categories from the larger set but those subsets differed across participants, we analyzed models with continuous dependent variables using the MIXED procedure in SAS 9.2 and models with dichotomous dependent variables using the GLIMMIX procedure in SAS 9.2. This allows us to use participant-choices as 15 the unit of observation while accounting for non-independence. Because the models include fixed effects for choice category, the estimated effects of perceived objectivity are the result of differences in perceived objectivity within a given category averaged across categories, and not comparing categories that tend to be perceived as objective with those that tend to be perceived as subjective. The reported analyses exclude the interactions between perceived objectivity and product category, but we also examined those interactions. Across Studies 1, 2, and 3, there was one marginal interaction and one significant interaction. Those cases are discussed below. Significance tests and raw and adjusted overall means for Studies 1, 2, and 3 are reported together in Tables 1, 2, and 3, and raw means are displayed by category in Figures 2, 3, and 4. Preference Strength. Participants held stronger preferences for choices that they represented as a matter of quality rather than a matter of taste. The raw difference in means averaged 1.14, was observed in all 16 categories, and was significant in both models (Model 1: F(1, 473) = 83.66, p < .0001; Model 2: F(1, 457) = 86.77, p < .0001). Perceived Consensus (H1). Participants believed that a greater proportion of participants made the same choice that they did when they represented the choice as a matter of quality rather than a matter of taste. The raw difference in means averaged 12.88 out of 100, was observed in all 16 categories, and was significant in both models. See Table 1 and Figure 2. This was partly driven by a difference in the likelihood of reporting that there was no majority (e.g., that exactly 50 out of 100 participants would make the same choice). Responses indicating no majority represented 28% of matters of taste and 10% of matters of quality. Insert Table 1 and Figure 2 about here Self-Reference (H2). We assessed participants’ self-references by examining their use of first-person singular pronouns when explaining their choices. This was measured as a percentage 16 of total words in each explanation using LIWC2007 (Pennebaker, Booth, and Francis 2007). Participants used fewer self-references when they represented the choice as a matter of quality rather than taste. The raw difference in means averaged 3.32 percentage points, was observed in 15 out of 16 categories, and was significant in both models. See Table 2 and Figure 3. Insert Table 2 and Figure 3 about here Willingness to Pay (H3). Willingness to pay (WTP) for one’s more preferred option over one’s less preferred option was severely positively skewed and varied considerably across categories. Overall, more than 50% of WTP responses were $0, suggesting that there was a great unwillingness to pay anything additional for one’s preferred option. We use an indicator variable for WTP more than $0 as our measure of interest. Participants were more likely to be willing to pay for their preferred option when the choice was represented as a matter of quality rather than taste. The raw difference in proportions averaged 28.96 percentage points, was observed in 14 out of 16 categories, and was significant in both models.1 See Table 3 and Figure 4. Insert Table 3 and Figure 4 about here Study 2 In Study 2, we sought to replicate the results of Study 1 and ensure that it was not driven by the decision to word taste using “matter of opinion.” Study 2 was a nearly-exact replication of Study 1 (N = 200; 85 women, median age of 27; no one who participated in Study 1 also participated in Study 2) with two exceptions. First, rather than using the word “opinion” in the response option denoting taste, participants were randomly assigned to see either “taste” or “personal preference.” Second, the personality inventory measure was dropped. The choice of 1 Fixed effects for the chosen option were excluded from the second model, as they caused the model to fail to converge because only one participant chose Yahoo!. If search engine choices are excluded and fixed effects are included, everything remains the same. This same adjustment held in Study 3 for proportion of responses using third-person pronouns and WTP. 17 wording (taste vs. personal preference) did not significantly interact with perceived objectivity to influence any dependent variable, so responses were pooled across this factor. All analyses replicated substantively and significantly; see Tables 1, 2, and 3 and Figures 1, 2, 3, and 4. There was a marginal ordinal interaction of perceived objectivity with product category on preference strength (p < .06), but all mean differences were in the same direction. There was a significant interaction of perceived objectivity with product category on perceived consensus (p < .05). This was driven by an unexpected reversal for gas stations. Compared to participants who represented gas station choice as a matter of taste, those who represented it as a matter of quality believed that fewer consumers made the same choice that they did. The relationship with perceived objectivity did not significantly differ across the other 15 categories. As this was the only significant interaction with product category for any dependent variable across Studies 1, 2, and 3, and this reversal was not present in Studies 1 or 3, we attribute it to chance. Studies 1 and 2 provide evidence for the relationships between choice set representation and perceived consensus (H1), self-references (H2), and willingness to pay (H3). Study 3 builds on these results and examines whether perceived objectivity is malleable. STUDY 3 Study 3 was the same as Study 1 with one key exception: instead of explaining their own choices, participants explained the choices of another participant. Participants were randomly assigned to either explain the choice of another participant who chose the same alternative or to explain the choice of another participant who chose the other alternative. 18 Method Participants from Amazon’s Mechanical Turk (N = 200; 92 women, median age of 30; no one who participated in Studies 1 or 2 participated in Study 3) were recruited for this study. The materials were the same as in Study 1 except that the focus of each explanation was not one’s own choice, but rather the choice of a same-sex participant who chose the same alternative (consistent condition) or the other alternative (discrepant condition). See Appendix A. To align participants on sex, sex was measured at the beginning of the study rather than the end. Results We first describe the basic results as a function of quality versus taste, replicating Studies 1 and 2. We then describe the effect of the manipulation on each dependent variable. Descriptive Statistics. Replicating Studies 1 and 2, 41% of choices were classified as a matter of quality; 50% were classified as a matter of taste; and 9% were not classified due to a lack of knowledge. Unclassified choices are not used in the analyses below. Only 1% of responses indicated that the option that was not chosen was objectively better than the chosen option. More informative than the overall percentage of quality responses and taste responses is the extent of disagreement. Of the informed responses, the average minority response was 37%. In each analysis below, we assess the relationship of the dependent variable with perceived objectivity using the same models as in Studies 1 and 2. Preference Strength. Replicating Studies 1 and 2, participants held stronger preferences when the choice was represented as a matter of quality rather than a matter of taste. The raw difference in means averaged 1.18, held for all 16 categories, and was significant in both models (Model 1: F(1, 508) = 74.46, p < .0001; Model 2: F(1, 492) = 77.54, p < .0001). Perceived Consensus (H1). Replicating Studies 1 and 2, participants reported that their 19 chosen option was more popular when the choice was represented as a matter of quality rather than a matter of taste. The raw difference in means averaged 11.94 percentage points, held for all 16 categories, and was significant in both models. See Table 1 and Figure 2. This was again partly driven by a difference in the likelihood of reporting that there was no majority. Responses indicating no majority represented 29% of matters of taste and 9% of matters of quality. Other-Reference. Because participants in Study 3 explained another’s choice rather than their own choice, we examine use of third-person pronouns rather than first-person pronouns. Consistent with, though not significantly replicating, Studies 1 and 2, participants used nonsignificantly fewer third-person pronouns when the choice was represented as a matter of quality rather than a matter of taste. The raw difference in means averaged 2.02 percentage points and held for 11 out of 16 categories. See Table 2 and Figure 3. Compared to the proportion of explanations using first-person singular pronouns in Studies 1 (76%) and 2 (77%), fewer used third-person singular pronouns in Study 3 (39%). The proportion of explanations that used any third-person pronouns was marginally lower for choices that were represented as a matter of quality. The raw difference in proportions was 16.69 percentage points, held for 13 out of 16 categories, and was marginally significant in both models. The significant effects in Studies 1 and 2 suggest that the null finding is an anomaly, there is a difference between explaining one’s own choice and someone else’s, or Study 3 was underpowered due to the number of 0 responses. WTP (H3). Replicating Studies 1 and 2, participants were more likely to be willing to pay for the preferred option when the choice was represented as a matter of quality rather than a matter of taste. The raw difference in proportions was 30.83 percentage points, held in all 16 categories, and was significant in both models. See Table 3 and Figure 4. Effect of Reconciling a Discrepancy on Choice Set Representation (H4). We analyze 20 choice set representation (matter of taste versus matter of quality, excluding “do not know” responses, which did not differ between conditions) as a function of condition with fixed effects for category and random effects for subject. Compared to participants who explained discrepant choices, participants who explained consistent choices were significantly more likely to represent those choices as matters of quality rather than as matters of taste (F(1, 510) = 4.95, p < .05). Among those who explained another’s choice of the same option, 45% of choices were represented as matters of taste and 45% were represented as matters of quality (10% were unknown). Among those who explained another’s choice of a different option, 55% of choices were represented as matters of taste and 36% were represented as matters of quality (9% were unknown). This difference held in 13 out of 16 categories. Mediation Analyses. Does discrepancy have an indirect influence on each of the predicted consequences of choice set representation? As current macros are not well equipped to handle mixed model mediation, we analyze individual-level effects. That is, we examine the effect of discrepancy (0 = consistent, 1 = discrepant) on average perceived consensus, average thirdperson pronoun use, and average willingness to pay anything via the difference between number of taste representations and number of quality representations; everything is consistent if we use proportion of informed responses that were taste instead. To avoid confounding within-domain effects with between-domain effects, we include 15 dummy variables as covariates to account for which of the 16 choices participants made. Each analysis used Hayes’ (2013) PROCESS macro with bias-corrected confidence intervals based on 10,000 bootstrapped samples. The indirect effect of discrepancy on average perceived consensus via the taste difference measure was significantly negative (b = -1.11, SE = 0.52, 95% CI: [-2.40, -0.30]): explaining another’s discrepant choice decreased perceived consensus by 1.11 percentage points through its 21 effect on representation. Controlling for the mediator, the direct effect of discrepancy on perceived consensus was not significant (b = -1.84, SE = 1.34, t(182) = -1.37, p > .15). The total effect of discrepancy was significantly negative (b = -2.96, SE = 1.38, t(183) = -2.14, p < .05). The indirect effect of discrepancy on third-person pronoun use via the difference measure was significantly positive (b = 0.41, SE = 0.23, 95% CI: [0.08, 1.02]): explaining another’s discrepant choice increased use of third-person pronouns by 0.41 percentage points through its effect on representation.2 Controlling for the mediator, the direct effect of taste on third-person pronoun use remained significant (third-person pronoun use: b = 2.70, SE = 0.77, t(182) = 3.52, p < .001). The total effect of discrepancy was significantly positive (third-person pronoun use: b = 3.11, SE = 0.77, t(183) = 4.05, p < .001). The third-person pronoun results should be interpreted with caution, however, as the written explanation was the manipulation, and so language use and representation may have moved in tandem. The indirect effect of discrepancy on proportion WTP via the difference measure was significantly negative (b = -0.04, SE = 0.02, 95% CI: [-0.09, -0.01]): explaining another’s discrepant choice decreased willingness to pay by 4 percentage points through its effect on representation. Controlling for the mediator, the direct effect of discrepancy on proportion WTP was not significant (b = -0.04, SE = 0.05, t(182) = -0.80, p > .4). The total effect of discrepancy was trending, but not significantly, negative (b = -0.08, SE = 0.05, t(183) = -1.62, p < .11). These results show that making sense of another’s discrepant choice can affect perceived consensus, other-references, and willingness to pay by shaping how consumers represent the choice. In the mediation analysis reported above, there was no direct effect of the manipulation on perceived consensus (that is, there was evidence for indirect-only mediation). If we swap the 2 These results replicate when third-person pronoun use was replaced with proportion of explanations that used any third-person pronouns. 22 mediator and dependent variable so that we test whether the manipulation influenced perceived consensus that in turn influenced representation, there again was a significant indirect path (b = 0.24, SE = 0.12, 95% CI: [0.04, 0.55]), but there was still a direct effect of the manipulation on representation (b = 0.71, SE = 0.35, t(182) = 2.03, p < .05): accounting for the effect of the manipulation on perceived consensus, there was still a direct effect of the manipulation on choice set representation. This indicates that the manipulation affects perceived consensus through representation rather than affecting representation through perceived consensus. Discussion In our first three studies, we provide evidence for H1, H2, and H3. When consumers make choices from sets that they represent as matters of quality rather than matters of taste, they believe those choices are more popular, they use fewer self-references when explaining their choices, and they are more likely to be willing to pay for their preferred option over another option. Each of these effects holds controlling for the choice category, the particular option chosen, and differences in preference strength, and the latter two also hold controlling for perceived consensus. Moreover, providing evidence for H4, choice sets are more likely to be represented as matters of taste rather than quality when consumers must explain another’s discrepant choice rather than another’s consistent choice. The effect on perceived consensus was partly driven by participants who represent a choice set as a matter of taste reporting that they believed there was no majority choice. Though speculative, one possibility is that representing a choice domain as a matter of taste leads to use of the ignorance prior when considering others’ choices (e.g., Fox & Rottenstreich, 2003). There could be alternative interpretations of what “objectively better” means to our participants, but none of these are tenable accounts given our data. First, one might argue that 23 perceived objectivity merely means a very strong preference. Goodwin and Darley (2008, 2012) show that strength of agreement is predictive of perceived objectivity of moral beliefs. Matters of quality are associated with stronger preferences than matters of taste, but these are nonetheless distinct constructs. All results in Studies 1, 2, and 3 hold controlling for preference strength, and preference strength is not predictive of personal pronoun use. Moreover, Studies 5 and 6 will involve unfamiliar options about which consumers cannot have preexisting preferences. Second, one might argue that perceived objectivity merely means that other consumers agree on what is preferred. However, perceived objectivity predicts other variables controlling for perceived consensus. Third, one might argue that by “objectively better,” participants mean that some preferences are preferred to others, but they are still matters of taste and not matters of quality. While we do not measure this possibility directly, this explanation would not predict the patterns of perceived consensus, first-person pronoun use, or consumer inferences that we predict and observe. Moreover, participants in Studies 1, 2, and 3 are given the opportunity to explicitly classify a choice set as a “matter of opinion” (Studies 1, 3) or “matter of taste” or “matter of personal preference” (Study 2), which would clearly encompass meta-preferences. Two key findings are worth emphasizing. First, there is considerable disagreement across individuals regarding any given choice. This disagreement is not merely that of a “trembling hand,” but represents more than a third of the population on average. For any given choice, not only do consumers disagree on which option is best, but also on whether one can even be called best. Second, this is not a mere artificial label constructed by the researchers, but rather appears to reflect real underlying differences in the way that consumers reason about their choices. Language use is a relatively unobtrusive measure, and such language use varies significantly and substantially as a function of whether a difference is seen as a matter of taste or quality. 24 Moreover, the explanations were recorded before the measure of perceived objectivity, so participants were not using a researcher-enforced classification to structure their explanations. This indicates that they are not mere labels that are applied without real consequences, but rather represent fundamental differences in the ways that consumers represent choices. STUDY 4: EXPERT CONSENSUS AND MOVIE REVIEWS If products within a given domain truly do vary in quality, and a set of knowledgeable experts are tasked with evaluating quality, their assessments will be less consistent with one another if they focus on matters of taste rather than quality. That is, when experts assess quality, the basis for evaluation is the same across raters and so they should come to similar conclusions. In contrast, when experts assess taste, the basis for evaluation differs across raters, and so they need not come to similar conclusions. As we showed in Studies 1 and 2, explanations that focus on taste are more likely to use self-references than those that focus on quality. In Study 4, we use real movie reviews to examine how self-referential language (indicative of a taste representation) is associated with larger deviations from the consensus evaluation. Metacritic.com aggregates movie reviews from various publications. A summary snippet is captured along with the critic’s score of the movie. Scores range from 0 to 100. This score is a transformation of the reviewers’ rating (e.g., 3 out of 4 stars is given a 75; a B+ is given an 833). If the critic did not provide a rating, Metacritic assigns the review a score.4 A metascore is calculated by taking a weighted average of normalized critic ratings, where the reviews are given proprietary weights according to the critic and publication reputation. 3 4 www.metacritic.com/about-metascores www.metacritic.com/faq 25 In Study 4, we collected movie review snippets from Metacritic.com. For every movie critic listed on the website, we collected every review snippet provided for that critic. Some critics were listed in the directory multiple times based on multiple affiliations (e.g., they wrote reviews for both The New York Times and The Los Angeles Times). To avoid double counting, we kept only the entries without any affiliation, though this had neither a statistical nor substantive effect. We also eliminated reviews of TV shows, though this too had neither a statistical nor substantive effect. This resulted in 120,381 review snippets by 357 critics for 8,676 movies. In addition, the metascore and the critic score were recorded for each review snippet. Each snippet was coded for whether it contained any first-person singular pronouns using LIWC (Pennebaker et al. 2007). Deviation was calculated as the absolute difference between a critic’s score and the metascore for a particular movie. For example, if Movie A received a metascore of 52 and Critic X gave Movie A a 50, Critic X’s deviation score for Movie A would be 2. Self-references were relatively rare, as one would expect for professional critic reviews. 6,156 review snippets contained first-person singular pronouns, whereas 114,225 did not. Among reviews that did contain first-person singular pronouns, the critic scores averaged a 14.41 point deviation (SD = 11.06, median = 12). Among those that did not contain first-person singular pronouns, the critic scores averaged a 12.56 point deviation (SD = 9.78, median = 10). On average, critics were 1.83 points (15%) farther from the consensus rating when they used first-person singular pronouns. This effect is significant at the p < .0001 level, though given the number of observations, the meaningful result is the effect size, not statistical significance. The effect holds when including random effects for critic and movie, fixed effects for critics, or fixed effects for critics and movies when the set is limited to a subset of movies with at least 30 reviews so that the fixed effects are manageable. 26 In analyzing the 242 reviewers for whom an individual-level effect could be calculated (i.e., who used first-person singular personal pronouns in at least one snippet and did not use them in at least one snippet), 60% showed an effect in the expected direction, and the effect averaged 1.31 points. This indicates that the effect holds within-critic, not just across critics. It is possible, though unlikely, that critics could alter their language use when they believe that they are likely to diverge from the consensus. Given that the critics’ mission is presumably to provide a review of the movie, rather than their own personal idiosyncracies, we posit that they would make a more forceful objective case (fewer self-references, or at least not more self-references) if they anticipate that the consensus will diverge from their own; however, we cannot rule this possibility out given the current data. We claim that when experts reference themselves, indicating that they are assessing taste rather than quality, they diverge more from the consensus quality assessment. This might not hold for typical consumers if those claiming to assess quality are not assessing “true” quality. STUDIES 5 AND 6 Our results indicate that the way people represent a choice set has important implications for how they assess others’ decisions, how they describe their own decisions, whether they are willing to pay for the option they prefer more, and how consistent experts are with one another. How consumers represent a given set of options also has far-reaching implications for how they reason about the world. As Deval and colleagues (2013) demonstrate, the beliefs that consumers hold regarding how markets operate have important implications for how they integrate new information. For example, price promotions can be indicative of good value, but they can also be 27 indicative of low quality. When the “good value” theory is activated, consumers assess a discounted product more positively than a non-discounted product, but the reverse trend holds when the “low quality” theory is activated. Consumers with different lay theories can draw opposing inferences from the same data. As a domain’s perceived objectivity increases, consumers can more readily draw inferences about unfamiliar products based on quality. Quality is transitive: if Brand A is better than Brand B and Brand B is better than Brand C, then Brand A is better than Brand C. If others’ choices are based on quality, then others’ choices should be transitive across consumers as well; if their choices are based on taste, then their choices need not be transitive across consumers. We examine this hypothesis in a series of two studies using a new product domain (higher education), a new paradigm, and a new manner of assessing choice set representation. These studies help us understand how consumers integrate information about unfamiliar options within a familiar domain. Study 5 establishes the basic relationship and Study 6 rules out artifactual explanations and examines boundary conditions. Study 5 Method Study 5 establishes the basic relationship between perceived objectivity of a domain and likelihood of drawing quality inferences from others’ choices within that domain (H5). Participants learned others’ choices that could be indicative of interpersonal preference transitivity and reported which of two outcomes (if either) was more likely. Participants (N = 100; 24 women, median age of 26) were recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk for this study. First, participants read information about four students’ college application and enrollment decisions regarding five colleges (labeled A, B, C, D, and E). These enrollment decisions showed the potential for interpersonal transitivity: one student chose B over A, another chose C 28 over B, a third chose D over C, and a fourth chose E over D (A ≺ B ≺ C ≺ D ≺ E). The degree to which potential interpersonal transitivity is informative about college quality depends on the extent to which consumers represent colleges as differing primarily on quality rather than taste. Participants then responded to five randomly-ordered inference items (e.g., “Samantha applied to College A and College E. She was accepted by both. She chose to enroll at College A. Did Samantha make a mistake?”) with five-point response scales. The full set of measures is given in Appendix B. An inference about how the options are rank ordered leads to a strong directional inference on these items whereas an absence of inference does not. After responding to each inference measure, participants responded to a three-item, fivepoint scale assessing the extent to which they believe college choice is a matter of quality or a matter of taste (e.g., “The choice of where to go to college is mostly a matter of getting into the best school possible.”) Finally, participants reported demographics. Study 5 Results A Quality-Based Inference composite was calculated by averaging the five inference items, scored such that higher numbers indicate a stronger inference regarding quality (α = 0.73, M = 3.24, SD = 0.59). A Perceived Objectivity composite was calculated by averaging the three objectivity items, scored such that higher numbers indicate stronger perceived objectivity (α = .55, M = 2.83, SD = 0.69); scale reliability is admittedly weak, but the individual items generally provide consistent results. Perceived Objectivity was a significant predictor of Quality-Based Inference (b = 0.22, SE = 0.08, F(1, 98) = 6.85, p < .05). When interpersonal choices permit transitivity, the extent to which consumers make quality inferences depends on the extent to which they believe that choice depends on quality rather than taste (H5). 29 Study 6 Method Study 6 builds on Study 5 by manipulating the potential for choice transitivity. Some participants were given the information about Samantha’s choice of A over E (violating transitivity) in the initial set of information, whereas others were not given that information until they assessed whether her choice was a mistake. Thus, the initial set of choices was manipulated to be potentially transitive or necessarily intransitive across individuals. Study 6 (N = 2025 participants who did not participate in Study 5; 62 women, median age of 26) was nearly identical to Study 5 with four changes. First, as noted above, some participants read about four choices that resulted in choices that permitted interpersonal transitivity, whereas others read about five choices that were necessarily intransitive (A ≺ B ≺ C ≺ D ≺ E ≺ A). Second, all inference items were displayed on the same page instead of different pages. Third, all items were in a fixed order, with the exception that the mistake item was counterbalanced to appear first or last. Fourth, wording of some items was slightly adjusted. In particular, the item about whether Samantha made a mistake was “[Samantha applied to College E and College A. She was accepted by both. She chose to enroll at College A.] Did Samantha make a mistake in her choice to enroll at College A?” The bracketed portion was excluded for the intransitive group to avoid duplicating information they had seen above. Study 6 Results Quality-Based Inference, a composite of five items (α = 0.70, M = 3.05, SD = 0.57), was analyzed as a function of mean-centered Perceived Objectivity (α = 0.48, raw M = 2.78, SD = 0.67), Violation (contrast-coded: no violation = 1, violation = -1), Order (contrast-coded: mistake first = 1, mistake last = -1), and all interactions. There were main effects of Violation and 5 We sought to recruit 200 participants, but 2 additional participants completed the study without requesting payment and therefore their spots remained available for others. 30 Perceived Objectivity that were qualified by a significant interaction between Perceived Objectivity and Violation on Quality-Based Inferences (F(1, 194) = 4.34, p < .05; see Figure 5). Replicating Study 5, simple slopes analysis revealed that Perceived Objectivity was a significant predictor of Quality-Based Inferences when there was no transitivity violation (b = 0.24, SE = 0.08, F(1, 194) = 8.05, p < .01) but it was not a significant predictor when there was a transitivity violation (b = 0.01, SE = 0.07, F(1, 194) = 0.01, p > .9). This indicates that Study 5’s results replicate, were not due to scale use tendencies, and were not based merely on the arbitrary ordered labels “A” through “E.” To examine the types of consumers who are or are not influenced by the potential transitivity of others’ choices, we conducted a floodlight analysis (Spiller et al. 2013). The Johnson-Neyman point for Perceived Objectivity is 2.04, meaning that the estimated effect of transitivity on Quality-Based Inference is not significant for any value of Perceived Objectivity below 2.04, but is significant for any value of Perceived Objectivity above 2.04. Compared to intransitive choices, potentially transitive choices allowed participants to make stronger Quality-Based Inferences, but only for those who represent college choice as a matter of quality. For those who represent college choice as a matter of taste, observing whether other consumers made potentially transitive or necessarily intransitive choices had no effect. Insert Figure 5 about here Unexpectedly, there was also a significant interaction between Violation and Order estimated at average Perceived Objectivity (F(1, 194) = 9.84, p < .01; the three-way interaction was not significant). There was no effect of Order in the No Violation condition (p > .2), indicating that those participants did not update their representation after discovering Samantha’s choice, but participants made stronger Quality-Based Inferences in the Violation condition if the mistake item came first (M = 3.01, SD = 0.52) than if it came last (M = 2.67, SD = 0.49; F(1, 31 194) = 10.38, p < .01). A post-hoc explanation for this finding is that consumers are unlikely to spontaneously consider the fact that Samantha could have made a mistake. Once they considered that possibility, however, it led them to recognize that there could be a rank ordering and so they were more likely to make a quality-based inference. Although speculative, this explanation fits with the findings from Study 3 that participants who explained another’s discrepant choice were more likely to represent the domain as a matter of taste. Consumers may report that a consumer chose in error if prompted, but they may not consider that possibility if not prompted. GENERAL DISCUSSION Six studies indicate that consumers have meaningful, different, and malleable representations of whether a given choice set is a matter of quality or taste. We next discuss ways to refine and differentiate the model and several implications. Refining the Model Objectivity of Attributes and Weights. We examined sets of products that could vary along multiple dimensions. In Studies 1, 2, and 3 we chose closely related products for which attributes other than brand name should have been quite similar, though using enriched stimuli like meaningful brands means that there could have been other differences between products. In Studies 4, 5, and 6, movies and colleges vary along multiple dimensions. How are comparisons of objective quality made across sets of multiple attributes? For a product pair, attributes may be divided into three sets: those on which the first option objectively dominates, those on which the second option objectively dominates, and those that are a matter of taste. A consumer may claim that one option is objectively better if the set of attributes on which it dominates would receive 32 sufficient weight for any reasonable set of weights. Our stylized model could be updated by modeling objectivity in terms of attributes and weights. For any given product, some attributes may be represented as matters of quality whereas others may be represented as matters of taste, and such representations may vary across consumers. Weights may also be represented as objective or subjective: different consumers may believe that different combinations of weights are objectively better than others, or that the combination of weights itself is a matter of personal preference. Related Constructs. Perceived objectivity is related to, but distinct from, issues of identity relevance, attitude correctness, and belief superiority. Consumers are more likely to choose minority options when the choice says something about their identity (Berger and Heath 2007). This appears to be similar to our finding that representing a domain as a matter of taste is associated with perceiving less of a consensus than representing a domain as a matter of quality. However, even when consumers represented choice sets as a matter of taste, they still tended to believe that they chose the majority option. More importantly, matters of quality may be just as relevant to one’s identity as matters of taste. Consider one’s identity as a wine connoisseur: the domain may be represented as a matter of quality, but that enhances its identity-relevance. Attitude correctness is also related, yet distinct. Attitude correctness refers to the extent to which one believes one’s attitude regarding a given issue is the correct one to have (Petrocelli, Tormala, and Rucker 2007). Together with attitude clarity (knowing what one’s position is), it forms one component of attitude certainty. The key distinction is that attitude correctness refers to an attitude towards a particular option whereas representation of a domain as a matter of taste or quality is about the relationships among options. For example, in our inference studies, consumers represented the domain as a matter of quality or taste; that could not be captured by a 33 measure of attitude correctness, especially given that the individual options were unknown and unknowable. Toner et al. (2013) assess belief superiority (and emphasize differences from attitude certainty), defined as the belief that one’s belief or position is better than another’s. Like attitude correctness, belief superiority is directed towards a particular option rather than the relationships among options. This view would have difficulty accounting for the findings regarding consumer inferences, self-references, and perceived consensus. Good Taste and Bad Taste. Throughout, we have used taste to refer to idiosyncratic fit or personal preference. Another important meaning of taste is that referred to by good taste, bad taste, little taste, or no taste, often referring to aesthetics (for treatments in the consumer behavior literature, see Holbrook 1999, 2005; Holbrook, Lacher, and Latour 2006; Holbrook and Addis 2007). For example, Holbrook and Addis (2007) examine the relationships among expert judgment (assessment of quality by experts), ordinary evaluation (assessment of quality by consumers), and popular appeal (liking by consumers). In a sample of movies, they find that there is strong correspondence between expert judgment and ordinary evaluation, but a weaker correspondence between ordinary evaluation and popular appeal (cf. Holbrook et al. 2006). This suggests that consumers can recognize good taste but show little taste through their choices, as there is weak correspondence between expert judgment and popular appeal. Placing their findings in our framework, the appeal to any given consumer could be due to perceived quality (ordinary evaluation) or idiosyncratic fit which was not measured, but likely related to the residual of popular appeal when regressed on ordinary evaluation. Expertise. In our stylized model, individuals who represent a choice as a matter of quality should necessarily believe that everyone will agree with them. Yet significant heterogeneity exists. One possibility is simply that people realize that such decisions are not deterministic and 34 there is a stochastic element. A second possibility is that consumers may represent a domain as partly a matter of quality and partly a matter of taste, and recognize that others’ weightings of those dimensions may differ from their own. A third possibility is that for some domains, individuals may recognize that it is a matter of quality yet also believe that others are not sufficiently knowledgeable to recognize one option’s status as the superior option. In other words, they may believe that only some consumers have sufficient expertise to recognize quality. Given this view, it is possible to believe that one option is objectively better, yet also believe that most people will choose the inferior option. Implications and Future Research Delegated decisions. Consumers not only make choices for themselves, but also rely on others to make choices for them. They may defer medical decisions to their doctors’ recommendations, rely heavily on a real estate agent when purchasing property, or leave their finances to the management of a financial advisor. One’s willingness to delegate decisions to others may depend on whether the domain is represented as a matter of quality or of taste. For matters of quality, domain expertise should matter and be beneficial, whereas for matters of taste it need not. Note that this is distinct from an effect of perceived consensus, as a consumer may be more likely to rely on an expert when the domain is represented as a matter of quality rather than taste independent of perceived consensus if she believes that popular opinion may not be sufficiently well-informed. Bidding. In a variety of situations, consumers’ outcomes are determined by the combination of their decisions with those of others. In first-price auctions, bidders’ bids are affected by their beliefs about others’ values. If they believe that they value an option because it is high quality, rather than because it is a good idiosyncratic fit, they will be more likely to 35 believe that others see it as a highly valued option as well, and so will increase their bid accordingly. This is akin to multiple bidders in the same auction holding discrepant beliefs about whether the auction is a common-value or private-value auction. Herding behavior. Others’ behavior is informative, but not always equally informative. When consumers have noisy signals about the correct choice, they can and should rely on others’ behaviors. This can lead to rational herding to suboptimal options (Banerjee 1992; Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer, and Welch 1992). Consumers will likely believe that others’ choices are more informative for their own choice when the choice is represented as a matter of quality rather than a matter of taste. When a given consumer represents a decision as a matter of quality, she is more likely to follow the herd than when she sees it as a matter of taste. 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Journal of marketing, 1-15. 40 Appendix A: Sample Materials for Studies 1, 2, 3 CHOICE For each of the products below, please specify which brand you would rather use. In making these choices, please assume that there is no price difference between the two options, even though in the marketplace you might pay different prices for the different brands. All else equal, I would rather drink a bottle of _____. Coca-Cola Pepsi PREFERENCE STRENGTH You said that you would rather drink a bottle of [chosen option] instead of a bottle of [unchosen option]. How strong is your preference? Very weak (1) to Very strong (7) EXPLANATION (SELF: STUDIES 1, 2) You said that you would rather drink a bottle of [chosen option] instead of a bottle of [unchosen option]. Please use the space below to give 1 to 2 reasons why you made the choice that you did. [Open-ended text box] EXPLANATION (CONSISTENT: STUDY 3) Another participant said that [he/she] would rather drink a bottle of [chosen option] instead of a bottle of [unchosen option]. Please use the space below to give 1 to 2 reasons why [he/she] made the choice that [he/she] did. [Open-ended text box] EXPLANATION (DISCREPANT: STUDY 3) Another participant said that [he/she] would rather drink a bottle of [unchosen option] instead of a bottle of [chosen option]. Please use the space below to give 1 to 2 reasons why [he/she] made the choice that [he/she] did. [Open-ended text box] QUALITY You said that you would rather drink a bottle of [chosen option] instead of a bottle of [unchosen option]. Which of the following statements best describes the comparison between Coca-Cola and Pepsi? Coca-Cola is objectively better than Pepsi. Pepsi is objectively better than Coca-Cola. Neither one is objectively better, it is a matter of [opinion / taste / personal preference]. I do not know enough about Coca-Cola and Pepsi to judge. PERCEIVED CONSENSUS You said that you would rather drink a bottle of [chosen option] instead of a bottle of [unchosen option]. If 100 people took this same survey, how many do you think would choose the same option as you? Slider labeled “People making the same choice” from 0 to 100. WTP Now suppose that you were purchasing soda at the grocery store. The store was giving away two 12-packs, one of Coca-Cola and one of Pepsi. You were selected to receive the 12-pack of [unchosen option]. How much, if anything, would you be willing to pay to trade and get the [chosen option] instead? $_____ 41 Appendix B: Materials for Study 5 Below is information about four high school seniors who are each planning to attend a 4-year college after they graduate from high school. Each college costs roughly the same amount to attend (including tuition, room and board, and incidental fees). Jessica applied to College A and College B. She was accepted by both. She chose to enroll at College B. Michael applied to College B and College C. […]. He chose to enroll at College C. Christopher applied to College C and College D. […]. He chose to enroll at College D. Ashley applied to College D and College E. […]. She chose to enroll at College E. QUALITY-BASED INFERENCE Matthew applied to College A and College E. He was accepted at both. Where will he choose to enroll? [Certainly College A, Probably College A, Not Sure, Probably College E, Certainly College E] Did Michael or Ashley have better grades in high school? [Certainly Michael … Certainly Ashley] Was College A or College E ranked higher by US News & World Report? [Certainly College A, …, Certainly College E] Sarah applied to College A, College B, and College C. Joshua applied to College C, College D, and College E. Who is more likely to be accepted by College C? [Certainly Sarah, … Certainly Joshua] Samantha applied to College A and College E, she was accepted by both. She chose to enroll at College A. Did Samantha make a mistake? [Certainly made a mistake, …, Certainly did not make a mistake] PERCEIVED OBJECTIVITY The choice of where to go to college is mostly a matter of getting into the best school possible. The choice of where to go to college is mostly a matter of finding the right fit. Rankings matter a lot when deciding where to go to college. [Strongly Disagree, Disagree, Neither Agree nor Disagree, Agree, Strongly Agree] 42 PERCEIVED CONSENSUS Study 1 Category Subject Item Chosen Preference Strength Perceived Consensus Objective vs. Opinion . . . . . . Objective (N=310) Opinion (N=379) Raw M (SD) Estimated M (SE) 68.37 (20.03) 66.28 (1.02) 55.49 (14.77) 56.93 (0.91) Estimated M (SE) 64.69 (1.15) 56.98 (1.03) Study 2 Category Subject Item Chosen Preference Strength Perceived Consensus Objective vs. Taste/Pref . . . . . . Fixed Effects Random Effects F(16, 462) = 3.50**** F(1, 462) = 22.70**** . F(1, 462) = 41.59**** Objective (N=350,351) Taste/Pref (N=342) Raw M (SD) Estimated M (SE) 67.76 (18.75) 67.05 (0.94) 55.03 (14.01) 55.57 (0.95) Estimated M (SE) 64.06 (1.03) 55.42 (1.04) Study 3 Category Subject Item Chosen Preference Strength Perceived Consensus Objective . . . . . . Fixed Effects Random Effects F(16, 491) = 4.63**** F(1, 491) = 22.25**** . F(1, 491) = 46.78**** Objective (N=324,325) Opinion (N=399) Raw M (SD) Estimated M (SE) 67.54 (17.35) 66.62 (0.93) 55.59 (13.90) 56.23 (0.84) Fixed Effects Random Effects . . . F(1, 474) = 50.71**** Fixed Effects Random Effects . . . F(1, 479) = 80.11**** Fixed Effects Random Effects . . . F(1, 509) = 75.25**** Fixed Effects Random Effects F(16, 456) = 5.25**** F(1, 456) = 24.10**** . F(1, 456) = 34.07**** Estimated M (SE) 63.95 (0.97) 55.73 (0.87) * p < .05, ** p < .01, *** p < .001, **** p < .0001 Table 1. Perceived consensus as a function of perceived objectivity in Studies 1, 2, and 3. 43 PERSONAL PROUNOUN USE Study 1: First-person singular pronouns Category . Subject . Item Chosen . Preference Strength . Perceived Consensus . Objective vs. Opinion . Objective (N=310) Opinion (N=379) Raw M (SD) 7.01 (6.78) 10.33 (6.63) Study 2: First-person singular pronouns Category . Subject . Item Chosen . Preference Strength . Perceived Consensus . Objective vs. Taste/Pref . Objective (N=350,351) Taste/Pref (N=342) Raw M (SD) 7.83 (6.91) 10.47 (6.81) Study 3: Third-person singular pronouns Category . Subject . Item Chosen . Preference Strength . Perceived Consensus . Objective . Objective (N=324,325) Opinion (N=399) Raw M (SD) 3.28 (5.92) 5.30 (6.72) Fixed Effects Random Effects . . . F(1, 474) = 26.83**** Fixed Effects Random Effects F(16, 455) = 1.94* F(1, 455) = 0.08 F(1, 455) = 6.31* F(1, 455) = 12.23*** Estimated M (SE) 7.56 ( 0.44) 10.24 ( 0.40) Estimated M (SE) 7.87 (0.51) 9.85 (0.46) Fixed Effects Random Effects . . . F(1, 478) = 21.56**** Fixed Effects Random Effects F(16, 460) = 1.17 F(1, 460) = 0.04 F(1, 460) = 0.21 F(1, 460) = 16.36**** Estimated M (SE) 7.91 (0.42) 10.44 (0.42) Estimated M (SE) 8.08 ( 0.48) 10.58 (0.49) Fixed Effects Random Effects . . . F(1, 509) = 1.64 Fixed Effects Random Effects F(16, 490) = 1.02 F(1, 490) = 0.88 F(1, 490) = 1.21 F(1, 490) = 1.04 Estimated M (SE) 4.17 (0.44) 4.75 (0.42) Estimated M (SE) 4.18 ( 0.48) 4.69 ( 0.45) * p < .05, ** p < .01, *** p < .001, **** p < .0001 Table 2. Personal pronoun use as a function of perceived objectivity in Studies 1, 2, and 3. 44 PROPORTION WILLING TO PAY MORE THAN $0 Study 1 Category Subject Item Chosen Preference Strength Perceived Consensus Objective vs. Opinion Objective (N=310) Opinion (N=379) Study 2 Category Subject Item Chosen Preference Strength Perceived Consensus Objective vs. Taste/Pref Objective (N=350,351) Taste/Pref (N=342) Study 3 Category Subject Item Chosen Preference Strength Perceived Consensus Objective Objective (N=324,325) Opinion (N=399) . . . . . . Raw % 70.65% 41.69% Fixed Effects Random Effects . . . F(1, 474) = 32.62**** Estimated % (SE) 70.61 (3.58) 42.64 (3.68) Fixed Effects Random Effects (Excluded to converge) F(1, 471) = 34.46**** F(1, 471) = 6.21* F(1, 471) = 7.34** Estimated % (SE) 64.75 (4.25) 49.65 (4.09) . . . . . . Raw % 66.38% 40.35% Fixed Effects Random Effects . . . F(1, 479) = 26.08**** Estimated % (SE) 67.34% (3.83) 40.02% (4.19) Fixed Effects Random Effects F(16, 461) = 0.85 F(1, 461) = 24.44**** F(1, 461) = 5.99* F(1, 461) = 3.92* Estimated % (SE) 61.26% (5.18) 48.28% (5.64) . . . . . . Raw % 74.69% 43.86% Fixed Effects Random Effects . . . F(1, 508) = 36.41**** Estimated % (SE) 74.27% (3.40) 44.51% (3.69) Fixed Effects Random Effects (Excluded to converge) F(1, 505) = 12.21*** F(1, 505) = 3.16† F(1, 505) = 16.99**** Estimated % (SE) 70.89% (3.85) 48.53% (3.98) † p < .1, * p < .05, ** p < .01, *** p < .001, **** p < .0001 Table 3. Proportion willing to pay for one’s preferred option as a function of perceived objectivity in Studies 1, 2, and 3. 45 r ize da So ur st oi M as G er Be d d tC ar el tF oo Fa s ot H s oe ar ne C Sh g ce vi ho tp di C re ar er in op pt th lo lS ce Sm Pa r C La on er a si ev i 0.0 ne gi lC am En Te l ita ig D ch ar Se 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Proportion Objective vs. Opinion h 0.0 l ot e H ize r So da ur st oi M as G Be er di tC ar d Fa st Fo od C re es Sh o ar C En gi ne lC am er a Te le vi si on La pt op C lo th Pa in rc g el Se rv ic Sm e ar tp ho ne ta ig i D rc Se a 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Proportion Objective vs. Taste or Personal Preference ev is M oi r iz er So da G as Be er Fo od ar d ot el C H st u Fa st re di t C Sh oe s C ar io n La pt op C lo th Pa in rc g el Se rv ic Sm e ar tp ho ne Te l ne 0.0 er a En gi lC am ita D ig ch Se ar 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Proportion Objective vs. Opinion Study 1 Study 2 Study 3 Figure 1. Proportion objective (black) versus opinion (gray; Studies 1, 3) or taste or personal preference (gray; Study 2) by category in Studies 1, 2, and 3. 46 as riz er da So st u M oi G er Be d tF oo d ar ot el H tC di Fa s re C s ar oe Sh C e ic e g on tp h rv in th lo Se ar Sm ce l C n op pt La si o ev i er a am e in En g lC h Te l ita ig Pa r D rc Se a 0 20 40 60 80 Perceived Consensus 100 it re d oi s M C ar d el H ot tu r ize r So da as G er Be tF oo d Fa s C s Sh oe ar C ho ne tp ic e in g lo th pt op Se rv Sm ar el Pa rc C La 0 Se ar ch En D gi ig ne ita lC am er a Te le vi si on 20 40 60 80 Perceived Consensus 100 M So da G as Be er Fo od tu riz er oi s Fa st ar d ot el H tC re di C Sh oe s ar C En gi ne lC am er a Te le vi si on La pt op C lo th Pa in rc g el Se rv ic Sm e ar tp ho ne ita ig D ar ch Se 0 20 40 60 80 Perceived Consensus 100 Study 1 Study 2 Study 3 Figure 2. Perceived consensus by category as a function of perceived objectivity (objective: black; opinion, taste, personal preference: gray) in Studies 1, 2, and 3. 47 ch C g in H el ot di tC re s 6 8 10 12 14 ch C oi s M G Be er H ot el re di tC ar d Fa st Fo od C Sh oe s C ar lo th in ce g lS er vi Sm ce ar tp ho ne Pa r to p La p En gi ig ne ita lC am er a Te le vi si on D Se ar ize r a riz er tu So da 4 So d st ur oi M 2 as 0 Study 3 as G r Be e ar d Fa st Fo od C oe Sh ar C vi Sm ce ar tp ho ne er n op pt th lo lS ce Pa r La io er a ev is Te l am ne gi En lC ita ig D ar Se Third−Person Pronoun Use 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 First−Person Pronoun Use ot el H M as So da oi st ur ize r G Be er C ar d Fa st Fo od re di t C Sh oe s ar C La pt op C lo th Pa in rc g el Se rv ic Sm e ar tp ho ne 0 Se ar ch En D gi ig ne ita lC am er a Te le vi si on 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 First−Person Pronoun Use Study 1 Study 2 Figure 3. Personal pronoun use by category as a function of perceived objectivity (objective: black; opinion, taste, personal preference: gray) in Studies 1, 2, and 3. 48 as riz er da So st u M oi G er Be d tF oo d ar ot el H tC di Fa s re C s ar oe Sh C e ic e g on tp h rv in th lo Se ar Sm ce l C n op pt La si o ev i er a am 0.0 e in En g lC h Te l ita ig Pa r D rc Se a 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 % Willing to Pay for Preferred Option it re d oi s M C ar d el H ot tu r ize r So da as G er Be tF oo d Fa s C s Sh oe ar C ho ne tp ic e in g lo th pt op Se rv Sm ar el Pa rc C La 0.0 Se ar ch En D gi ig ne ita lC am er a Te le vi si on 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 % Willing to Pay for Preferred Option 0.0 M So da G as Be er Fo od tu riz er oi s Fa st ar d ot el H tC re di C Sh oe s ar C En gi ne lC am er a Te le vi si on La pt op C lo th Pa in rc g el Se rv ic Sm e ar tp ho ne ita ig D ar ch Se 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 % Willing to Pay for Preferred Option Study 1 Study 2 Study 3 Figure 4. Proportion willing to pay for preferred option by category as a function of perceived objectivity (objective: black; opinion, taste, personal preference: gray) in Studies 1, 2, and 3. 49 Figure 5. Strength of quality-based inferences in Study 6 as a function of perceived objectivity and interpersonal choice transitivity. The ticks inside the axes show the univariate distribution of each variable. The shaded region surrounding each line represents the 95% confidence band for the estimated mean. The shaded region between the lines, beginning at “JN = 2.04” represents the region of significance, with a Johnson-Neyman point of 2.04. 50