The future of
climate science
A public forum with world-leading IPCC
climate researchers
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Professor Neil Adger
University of Exeter
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Peter Gibbs
BBC and Met Office
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Professor Thomas Stocker
Co-Chair of Working Group I
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Professor Chris Field
Co-Chair of Working Group II
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IPCC WG1: Building on the 'miracle' of
consensus
Professor Peter Cox
University of Exeter
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IPCC Working Group 1 :
The Physical Basis
Thorny Issues and Personal Opinions
 How do you get so many (very argumentative!) scientists
to reach a consensus?
1 million
words now!
Intergovernmental Panel
for Cat Control?..
Thorny Issues and Personal Opinions
 How do you get so many (very argumentative!) scientists
to reach a consensus?
Because many of the key messages have been obvious for
a long-time....
More and More Sure About the Obvious?
IPCC SAR, 1995: discernible impact of humans on climate.
IPCC TAR, 2001: ... is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse
gas concentrations.
IPCC AR4, 2007: .... is very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
> 66%
> 90%
IPCC AR5, 2013: It is extremely likely that human influence has been the
dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
Confidence > 95%
Yet CO2 keeps
going-up...
>400ppmv
AR5
AR4
TAR
CO2 increase of 40ppmv since human
impact became “discernible”...
IPCC SAR
(“discernible”)
Highest-level for
at least 800,000 yrs
Thorny Issues and Personal Opinions
 Is it still possible to avoid 2oC with conventional mitigation
alone?
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2oC Target
…and will almost certainly
exceed the 2oC target for
all but the most aggressive
mitigation scenario !
Can we Avoid 2oC through Conventional Mitigation Alone?
CO2 Emissions
(GtCO2/yr)
RCP8.5
RCP6.0
RCP4.5
RCP2.6
Avoiding 2oC may require
periods of Negative Global CO2
Emissions !
...which implies
Geoengineering
of some sort!!
Thorny Issues and Personal Opinions
 How do you get so many (very argumentative!) scientists to reach a consensus?
Because many of the key messages have been obvious for a long-time....
 Is it still possible to avoid 2oC with conventional mitigation alone?
Probably not.....

Should we give up on the 2oC target or consider more Radical approaches to
avoid 2oC - such as Geoengineering or Negative Emissions Technologies?
You decide.....
Climate change and
the future of food
Professor Andy Challinor
University of Leeds
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IPCC Working Group II: making climate
science and scientists really useful
Dr Richard Jones
University of Exeter
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IPCC Working Group III:
policy for climate change
Professor Catherine Mitchell
University of Exeter
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Emissions accelerate
globally despite reduction
efforts. Most emission
growth is CO2 from fossil
fuel combustion.
Figure SPM.1
Mitigation requires major
technological and
institutional changes
including the upscaling of
low- and zero carbon energy.
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700
600
MtCO2e/yr
The UK 2050
target and carbon
budgets (CCC,
2010)
Legislated budgets
500
2050 target (inc. IAS)
400
300
Carbon
budgets: The
cost-effective
path to the 2050
target
200
100
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
The 2050
target: UK’s
contribution to 2°C
– 160 MtCO2e
2040
2050
UK energy supplied
100%
90%
Wind and Imports,
hydro, 0.2 0.5
80%
70%
Bioenergy
and waste,
0.3
1990
Nuclear ,
7.6
60%
50%
Imports,
Wind and 0.5
2012
hydro, 1.1
Bioenergy
and waste,
3.8
Nuclear , 7.4
40%
Coal, 19.9
30%
Coal, 31.3
20%
Natural
gas, 24
10%
Natural gas,
35.4
0%
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Coal
Petroleum
Natural gas
Nuclear
Wind and hydro
Imports
Bioenergy and waste
2012
DUKES Long Term Trends Table 1.1.1
Petroleum,
36.1
Petroleum,
31.9
Panel question
and answer
session
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Professor Nick Talbot
University of Exeter
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Thank you for
coming tonight.
Keep the conversation
going at #climate2014
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