The future of
climate science
A public forum with world-leading IPCC
climate researchers
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
#climate2014
Professor Neil Adger
University of Exeter
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
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#climate2014
Peter Gibbs
BBC and Met Office
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
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Professor Thomas Stocker
Co-Chair of Working Group I
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
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Observations
Understanding
Future
www.climatechange2013.org
1
IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.1b
Temperature Difference 1901 to 2012 based on trend (°C)
Warming of the climate system
is unequivocal
Change in Energy Content (1021 Joule)
300
200
100
0
-100
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Warming of the climate system
is unequivocal
Worldwide Effects
Cause
atmosphere, land, ocean
extreme events
water cycle
sea ice, glaciers, ice sheets
global mean sea level
Human influence on the
climate system is clear.
IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.8
2°C world
IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.8
2°C world
4.5°C world
+19 cm
IPCC 2013, TFE.2, Fig. 2
+98 cm
IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.8
2°C world
4.5°C world
Today we have a choice.
www.climatechange2013.org
Professor Chris Field
Co-Chair of Working Group II
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
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THE WORKING GROUP II
CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC'S
FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:
IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY
IMPACTS
CLIMATE
Vulnerability
SOCIOECONOMIC
PROCESSES
Socioeconomic
Pathways
Natural
Variability
Hazards
RISK
Anthropogenic
Climate Change
Exposure
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change
Adaptation and
Mitigation
Actions
Governance
WIDESPREAD
OBSERVED IMPACTS
A CHANGING WORLD
WIDESPREAD
OBSERVED IMPACTS
A CHANGING WORLD
DISTRIBUTION CHANGE
(Km per Decade)
400
100
(359)
20
Standard Error
0
-20
Mean
Standard Error
2
0
YIELD IMPACT
(% Change per Decade)
-2
90th Percentile
-4
75th Percentile
Median
-6
25th Percentile
Wheat
Soy
Rice
CROP TYPE
Maize
10th Percentile
VULNERABILITY
AND EXPOSURE
AROUND THE WORLD
VULNERABILITY
AND EXPOSURE
AROUND THE WORLD
ADAPTATION IS
ALREADY OCCURING
ADAPTATION IS
ALREADY OCCURING
CLIMATE CHANGE
REDUCING AND
MANAGING RISKS
INCREASING MAGNITUDES
OF WARMING INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE AND
PERVASIVE IMPACTS
SCOPING
Identify Risks,
Vulnerabilities,
and Objectives
Establish DecisionMaking Criteria
IMPLEMENTATION
ANALYSIS
Review
and Learn
Implement
Decisions
Monitor
Identify
Options
Evaluate
Tradeoffs
Assess
Risks
RISKS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
INCREASE
WITH CONTINUED
HIGH EMISSIONS
MAXIMUM SPEED AT WHICH SPECIES CAN MOVE
(km per decade)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Trees
Herbaceous
Plants
Split-hoofed
Mammals
Carnivorous
Mammals
Rodents
Primates
Plant-feeding
Insects
Upper Bound
Median
Freshwater
Mollusks
Lower Bound
RCP2.6
Flat Areas
and
Global
Average
RCP4.5
Flat Areas
RCP6.0
Flat Areas
RCP8.5
Global Average
RCP8.5
Flat Areas
AVERAGE CLIMATE
VELOCITY 2050-2090
CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-2060 COMPARED TO 2001-2010, SRES A1B)
<50%
-21 – 50%
-6 – 20%
-1 – 5%
No data
0 – 4%
5 – 19%
20 – 49%
50 – 100%
>100%
CHANGE IN pH (2081-2100 COMPARED TO 1986-2005, RCP 8.5)
-0.60
-0.55
-0.50
-0.45
-0.40
-0.35
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
Mollusk and
Crustacean Fisheries
Present-day annual catch
rate ≥0.005 tonnes km2
Cold-Water Corals
Warm-Water Corals
Positive
Effect
No Effect
Negative
Effect
SPECIES (%)
MOLLUSK
100
40
16
15
CRUSTACEANS
31
29
100
37
4
9
18
COLD-WATER CORALS
23
100
7
2
7
5
3
WARM-WATER CORALS
100
80
60
80
60
80
60
80
60
40
40
40
40
20
0
20
0
20
0
20
0
26
9
15
23
20
CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-2060 COMPARED TO 2001-2010, SRES A1B)
<50%
-21 – 50%
-6 – 20%
-1 – 5%
No data
0 – 4%
5 – 19%
20 – 49%
50 – 100%
>100%
Range of Yield Change
100
50 – 100%
25 – 50%
80
Increase
in Yield
10 – 25%
5 – 10%
60
PERCENTAGE OF
YIELD PROJECTIONS
0 – 5%
0 – -5%
40
-5 – -10%
Decrease
in Yield
20
-10 – -25%
-25 – -50%
-50 – -100%
0
2010-2029
2030-2049
2050-2069
2070-2089
2090-2109
Risk-Level
Very
Low
Med
Very
High
Present
Near Term (2030-2040
POLAR REGIONS
Risks for
Ecosystems
Risks for Health
and Well-Being
Unprecedented Challenges,
Especially from Rate of Change
Long Term 2°C
(2080-2100 4°C
Risk Level with
High Adaptation
NORTH AMERICA
Increased Risks
from Wildfires
Heat-Related
Human Mortality
Increased Flood Losses and Impacts
Potential for
Additional
Adaptation to
Reduce Risk
Risk Level with
Current Adaptation
EUROPE
Increased Losses and
Impacts from Extreme
Heat Events
Damages from River
and Coastal Urban Floods
Increased Water Restrictions
Increased Flood
Damage to
Infrastructure ,
Livelihoods,
and Settlements
ASIA
Heat-Related
Human Mortality
Increased DroughtRelated Water and
Food Shortage
THE OCEAN
AFRICA
Reduced Fisheries
Catch Potential
at Low Latitudes
Compounded Stress
on Water Resources
r
CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AMERICA
Reduced Water
Availability and
Increased Flooding and
Landslides
Increased Mass Coral
Bleaching and Mortality
SMALL ISLANDS
Reduced Crop Productivity
and Livelihood and Food Security
Reduced Food
Production and Quality
Coastal Inundation
and Habitat Loss
Loss of Livelihoods,
Settlements,
Infrastructure,
Ecosystem Services,
and Economic
Stability
Increased Risks
to Coastal
Increased Flood Damage Infrastructure
and Low-Lying
to Infrastructure and
Ecosystems
Settlements
Vector- and WaterBorne Diseases
Vector-Borne Diseases
AUSTRALASIA
Significant Change in
Composition and Structure
of Coral Reef Systems
Risks for Low-Lying
Coastal Areas
EFFECTIVE CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION
A MORE VIBRANT WORLD
IPCC WG1: Building on the 'miracle' of
consensus
Professor Peter Cox
University of Exeter
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
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IPCC Working Group 1 :
The Physical Basis
Thorny Issues and Personal Opinions
 How do you get so many (very argumentative!) scientists
to reach a consensus?
1 million
words now!
Intergovernmental Panel
for Cat Control?..
Thorny Issues and Personal Opinions
 How do you get so many (very argumentative!) scientists
to reach a consensus?
Because many of the key messages have been obvious for
a long-time....
More and More Sure About the Obvious?
IPCC SAR, 1995: discernible impact of humans on climate.
IPCC TAR, 2001: ... is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse
gas concentrations.
IPCC AR4, 2007: .... is very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
> 66%
> 90%
IPCC AR5, 2013: It is extremely likely that human influence has been the
dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
Confidence > 95%
Yet CO2 keeps
going-up...
>400ppmv
AR5
AR4
TAR
CO2 increase of 40ppmv since human
impact became “discernible”...
IPCC SAR
(“discernible”)
Highest-level for
at least 800,000 yrs
Thorny Issues and Personal Opinions
 Is it still possible to avoid 2oC with conventional mitigation
alone?
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
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2oC Target
…and will almost certainly
exceed the 2oC target for
all but the most aggressive
mitigation scenario !
Can we Avoid 2oC through Conventional Mitigation Alone?
CO2 Emissions
(GtCO2/yr)
RCP8.5
RCP6.0
RCP4.5
RCP2.6
Avoiding 2oC may require
periods of Negative Global CO2
Emissions !
...which implies
Geoengineering
of some sort!!
Thorny Issues and Personal Opinions
 How do you get so many (very argumentative!) scientists to reach a consensus?
Because many of the key messages have been obvious for a long-time....
 Is it still possible to avoid 2oC with conventional mitigation alone?
Probably not.....

Should we give up on the 2oC target or consider more Radical approaches to
avoid 2oC - such as Geoengineering or Negative Emissions Technologies?
You decide.....
Climate change and
the future of food
Professor Andy Challinor
University of Leeds
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
#climate2014
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IPCC Working Group II: making climate
science and scientists really useful
Dr Richard Jones
University of Exeter
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
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IPCC Working Group III:
policy for climate change
Professor Catherine Mitchell
University of Exeter
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
#climate2014
#climate2014
Emissions accelerate
globally despite reduction
efforts. Most emission
growth is CO2 from fossil
fuel combustion.
Figure SPM.1
Mitigation requires
major technological
and institutional
changes including
the upscaling of
low- and zero
carbon energy.
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
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700
600
MtCO2e/yr
The UK 2050
target and carbon
budgets (CCC,
2010)
Legislated budgets
500
2050 target (inc. IAS)
400
300
Carbon
budgets: The
cost-effective
path to the 2050
target
200
100
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
The 2050
target: UK’s
contribution to 2°C
– 160 MtCO2e
2040
2050
UK energy supplied
100%
90%
Wind and Imports,
hydro, 0.2 0.5
80%
70%
Bioenergy
and waste,
0.3
1990
Nuclear ,
7.6
60%
50%
Imports,
Wind and 0.5
2012
hydro, 1.1
Bioenergy
and waste,
3.8
Nuclear , 7.4
40%
Coal, 19.9
30%
Coal, 31.3
20%
Natural
gas, 24
10%
Natural gas,
35.4
0%
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Coal
Petroleum
Natural gas
Nuclear
Wind and hydro
Imports
Bioenergy and waste
2012
DUKES Long Term Trends Table 1.1.1
Petroleum,
36.1
Petroleum,
31.9
Panel question
and answer
session
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
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Professor Nick Talbot
University of Exeter
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
#climate2014
#climate2014
Thank you for
coming tonight.
Keep the conversation
going at #climate2014
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
www.exeter.ac.uk/climate2014
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