Energy & Climate Security
General Chuck Wald, USAF (ret)
Director and Senior Advisor,
Aerospace & Defense Industry
24 March 2010
Climate Change as a National Security Risk
•
―What adverse conditions are climate changes likely to
produce around the world?‖
•
―What are the ways in which these conditions may affect
America’s national security interests?‖
•
―What actions should the nation take to address the
national security consequences of climate change?‖
CNA Military Advisory Board
GEN Gordon Sullivan, USA, Ret
Chief of Staff, US Army
GEN Paul Kern, USA, Ret
Commander, Army Materiel
ADM Skip Bowman, USN, Ret
Director, Navy Nuclear Power
Gen Ronald Keys, USAF, Ret
Commander, Air Combat
Gen Charles Boyd, USAF, Ret
Deputy Commander, EUCOM
ADM T. Joseph Lopez, USN, Ret
Commander, U.S. Navy Europe
Lt Gen Larry Farrell Jr., USAF, Ret
Chief Planner, HQ USAF
Gen Robert Magnus, USMC, Ret
Assistant Commandant, USMC
VADM Paul Gaffney II, USN, Ret
ONR and NDU
4
CNA Military Advisory Board
VADM Dennis McGinn, USN, Ret
Deputy CNO
ADM Joseph W. Prueher, USN, Ret
Commander, PACOM; China Amb
ADM John Nathman, USN, Ret
Commander, Fleet Forces
VADM Richard H. Truly, USN, Ret
NASA Administrator; Astronaut
RADM David Oliver Jr., USN, Ret
Gen Chuck Wald, USAF, Ret
Principal Deputy, Navy Acq Exec
Deputy Commander, EUCOM
ADM Don Pilling, USN, Ret
Vice Chief, US Navy
Gen Tony Zinni, USMC, Ret
Commander, CENTCOM
5
MAB Perspective on Scientific Debate
We never have 100% certainty.
If you wait until you have 100% certainty,
something bad is going to happen
on the battlefield.
That’s something we know.
— GEN Sullivan
Threats to Natural & Human Systems
Case in Point:
Threats
Darfur
Water
Food
Health
Weather
Impacts: Decreased rainfall, increased drought
Climate Change: A Threat Multiplier…for Our Troops
Climate Change is a Threat Multiplier
• Projected climate change poses a
serious threat to America’s national security
• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for
instability in some of the most volatile regions of the
world
• Projected climate change will add to tensions even in
stable regions of the world
• Climate change, national security, and energy
dependence are a related set of global challenges
Energy as a National Security Risk
• What are the national security threats associated
with energy?
• What is an appropriate role for DoD in addressing
these threats?
Powering America’s Defense:
Energy and the Risks to
National Security
U.S. Energy Posture is a Threat
America’s energy
posture constitutes a
serious and urgent
threat to national
security—militarily,
diplomatically and
economically
U.S. Oil Dependence Undermines National Security
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• Weakens international
leverage
• Cripples foreign policy
• Jeopardizes military
• Exacts huge price tag in
dollars and lives
• Entangles US with hostile
regimes
• Undermines economic
stability
Interrelated Set of Challenges
Energy
Dependence
Climate
Change
National &
Homeland
Security
Continuing energy
business-as-usual
creates an
unacceptably high
threat level
from a series of
converging risks
Converging Risks
• Market for fossil fuels shaped by finite supplies,
increasing demand and rising costs
• Conflict over fuel resources
• Destabilization driven by ongoing climate
change
Dependence on oil: Drives instability
Dependence on oil: Drives instability
Dependence on oil: Mission impacts
Critical National Security Missions Depend on a Fragile Grid
• Electrical grid is:
–
–
–
–
Outdated
Fragile
Overtaxed
A threat to military
capability
Finding
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Achieving energy
security
in a carbon-constrained
world is possible, and
requires concerted
leadership and
continuous commitment
Finding
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DoD can contribute to
national solutions as
a technological
innovator and
early adopter
Priority Recommendation
Energy security and
climate change goals
should be clearly and
fully integrated into our
national security and
military planning
processes
Climate Change & Energy in the QDR
Climate change and energy are two key
factors that will play a significant role in shaping the
future security environment.
... [Climate change] may act as an
accelerant of instability or conflict ...
— 2010 DoD Quadrennial Defense Review
A Roadmap for Energy Security
1. Integrate energy & climate in the planning processes
2. Design & deploy systems to the field to reduce the
burden of inefficient energy usage
3. Know your Carbon Bootprint
4. Transform installations through aggressive pursuit of:
•
•
•
Energy efficiency
Smart grid technologies
Electrification of non-tactical vehicle fleet
5. Expand distributed & renewable energy generation
6. Invest in long-term shift to low-carbon liquid fuels
Silver Buckshot
While there may not be a ―silver
bullet‖ …
there are a lot of ―silver buckshot‖ technologies
which we can use
to scale up and create an
economically viable portfolio of energy
choices.
— VADM McGinn (Ret)
Where to Find CNA MAB Reports
• SecurityAndClimate.cna.org
• PoweringAmericasDefense.org
Energy & Climate Security
Sherri Goodman
Senior Vice President & General Counsel, CNA
Executive Director, CNA Military Advisory Board
11 February 2010
Regional Impacts: Europe
Europe will be focused on its own borders.
There is potential for fracturing some very
strong alliances based on migrations and
the lack
of control over borders.
— ADM Pilling
Regional Impacts: Africa
Climate change will
facilitate:
• weakened governance
• economic collapse
• human migrations
• potential conflicts
Stability operations and
humanitarian missions
could increase for U.S.
Regional Impacts: Middle East
Water security will be
threatened –
two-thirds of the Arab
world already depends
on water sources
external to their
borders
Loss of food and water
security will increase
pressure to emigrate across
borders
Regional Impacts: Asia
Almost 40
percent of Asia’s
4 billion people live within
45 miles of the coast
Inundation of coastal areas, with loss
of settled areas and agricultural land
Threats to water, and spread of
infectious disease will stress the
region
Regional Impacts: Western Hemisphere
Coastal areas vulnerable to sea
level rise coupled with more
intense hurricanes
Loss of glaciers will strain water
supply in several areas, such as Peru
and Colombia
Migration into the U.S. will likely
increase
Regional Impacts: Asia
Almost 40
percent of Asia’s
4 billion people live within
45 miles of the coast
Inundation of coastal areas, with
loss of settled areas and agricultural
land
Threats to water, and spread of
infectious disease will stress the
region