NRL Research Focus in the Arctic Ocean;
Energy, Climate and Navy Issues
Dr. Richard B. Coffin
Marine Biogeochemistry Section
Code 6114
Naval Research Laboratory
Washington, DC
202-767-0065
richard.coffin@nrl.navy.mil
23-24 March, 2010
Distribution Statement A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
Presentation Overview
•Brief methane hydrate introduction
•Energy exploration
•Climate change
•Navy issues
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
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Gas Hydrates Are?
Structure I
• Ice-like solids comprising a lattice of hydrogenbonded water molecules; guest molecules occupy
cavities of the lattice
• Stable hydrates exist in the deep ocean at conditions
above the ice point and in permafrost
Methane
Sulfide
Carbon Dioxide
Structure II
Methane
Ethane - Butane
Sulfide
Carbon Dioxide
+
Structure H
Ocean Floor
> 550 m deep
1 m3
Hydrate
164 m3
Methane
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
0.8 m3
Water
Methane
Ethane – Butane
Pentane & Hexane
Sulfide
Carbon Dioxide
3
Hydrate Stability Zone
Where gas and water are present at:
• Moderately low temperatures
• Moderately high pressures
Free Gas
Free Gas
GEOTHERMAL
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GRADIENT
4
Global Estimate of the Methane Hydrates
gigatons
Waste material
Peat
Land (animals and plants)
Dissolved organic matter in water
Soil
Total fossil fuels
Methane hydrates
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
Global gas-in-place estimates
vary but 700,000 tcf is most
widely cited estimate
5
Global Methane Hydrate Distribution
Sept. 2009
2011-2013
- Coastal
CoastalOcean
Ocean
- Arctic
ArcticPermafrost
Permafrost
- NRL
NRLActivity
Activity
NRL
Plans
NRL
Plans
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Summer 2010
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Mallik Well, Mackenzie Delta, Canada
Research well, Mallik 2L-38, designed to
evaluate in-situ properties and assess the ability
of wire-line logging tools to characterize
hydrates.
•Well drilling 2002
•Product availability 2006-
Images
from Tim& Collett
2 0 1 0 Climate
Ener gyUSGS
Symposium
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Methane Relative to Climate Change
www.realclimate.org
News media’s interpretation:
“Massive Methane Melt off Siberia”
“Get ready for the methane apocalypse”
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Gas Hydrate & the Global Climate Cycle
•Is the GH reservoir susceptible to climate
change? All or parts?
•If so, what are the consequences?
•Does it lead or lag?
•What does the geologic record say?
•What do climate models say?
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
Ruppel and
Pohlman, 2008
9
Navy Relevant Focus
ISSUES
Navy presence
Changes to acoustic propagation
Coloured dissolved organic
matter (CDOM) impact on optics
Changes in the under-ice ops
Rapid response to accidents
CDOM
Seismic
Profiling
Ocean
Methane
Gas
Sediment Methane Gas
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MITAS-I
Chief Scientists
CS: Richard B. Coffin, NRL
richard.coffin@nrl.navy.mil
CO-CS: Jens Greinert, NIOZ, Netherlands
Jens.Greinert@NIOZ.nl
CO-CS: Warren Wood, NRL-Stennis
warren.wood@nrlssc.navy.mil
CO-CS: Kelly Rose, NETL-Morgantown
Kelly.rose@netl.doe.gov
Onboard Scientists
Layton Bryant, Milbar HydroTest
Matt Cottrell, University of Delaware
Mara Dougherty, University of Maryland
Ross Downer, Milbar HydroTest
Chad Greene, UT
Craig Joseph, NETL
Leila Hamdan, NRL
Pat Hart, USGS
Edna Huetten, NIOZ
Dave Kirchman, University of Delaware
Chris Kinoshita, University of Hawaii
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
Stefan Krause, IFM-GEOMAR
Randy Larsen, St. Mary’s College
Thomas Lorenson, USGS
Curt Millholland, NRL
Jennifer Presley, NETL
Koen de Rycker, RCMG
Sunita R Shah, NRL
Joe Smith, NRL
Tina Treude, IFM-GEOMAR
Brandon Yoza, HNEI
Preston Wilson, UT
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Sample Locations
Legend
Vibrocore
Piston Core
Gravity Core
Multi Core
CTD
Halkett
Thetis Island
Hammerhead
Prudhoe Bay
Alaska
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Camden Bay
North Slope
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Collaborative Field Plan
CH4
CO2
CDOM
Shallow
Acoustics
Tundra Input
and Cycling
DOM
HCO3-
TGHS
AOM
Hydrate
CH4
Gas
CH4
CO2
CH4
E
CO2
A
D
TDOM
Flux to the
Atmosphere
Water
Column
Methane
Cycling
C
Aerobic HCO 3
Oxidation
Permafrost
Hydrates
Gas Hydrate Stability
HCO3-
AOM
BGHS
Free Methane Gas
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
Methane
Cycling
B
Hydrate
CH4
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Public Outreach
ISSUES
• Changes in whale migration patterns
• Ice depletion influence on whale processing
• Ship traffic interfering with whaling
• Energy and shipping influence on changes in local
community culture
OUTREACH
• Satellite data for ice patterns to assist with whaling
• Community meeting for information on development
planning
• Hiring into science and industrial development off
the coast of Alaska
• Educational support related to changes in community
development
Photographs from Nuiqsut Alaska taken during a whale catch
2celebration
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Methane Hydrate Research - Kara Sea, Russia
Lead Scientists:
•Georgy Cherkashov, VNIIO
•Rick Coffin, NRL-DC
•Jens Greinert, NIOZ
Kara Sea
Science Focus:
•Tundra carbon flux
•Methane hydrate exploration
•Permafrost hydrate stability
•Climate change
Professor Shtokman
Planned for August 2010
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Impact of Climate Change on Ocean
Vertical Stratification in Navy Systems
Navy Systems use statistics derived from historical ocean
thermal profile data for:
• More accurate representation of the key temperature,
salinity and sound speed features that impact acoustic
Anti Submarine Warfare (ASW)
• Development of algorithms for vertical projection of
surface observations
• New representations of error covariances for advanced
data assimilation.
Dr. Ruth H. Preller
Superintendent Oceanography Division
Code 7300
ruth.preller@nrlssc.navy.mil
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
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Technical Issues Associated with Climate
Related Ocean Stratification Change
• Statistics calculated from historical data will not
represent the new ocean climate and will induce
biases that will result in incorrect Sound Speed Profile
information.
• How often must the databases used to define these
statistics be updated as a result of the changing ocean
climate?
Dr. Ruth H. Preller
Superintendent Oceanography Division
Code 7300
ruth.preller@nrlssc.navy.mil
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
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Changing Ice Conditions in the Arctic
Minimum
satellite
observed ice
extent
Sept 25, 2007
New northern ice-free
transit routes?
Ice Free during summer
within 20-30 years?
North
West
Passage
(NWP)
North
Sea
Route
(NSR)
Sept 2009
PINK is median (1979-2000) ice edge
location while white area is 2007 ice
edge location.
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
During spring, 2 Russian
heavy lift transports
were escorted by icebreakers through NSR.
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NRL Arctic Cap Modeled Ice Extent
Jan 2009 to Jan 2010
Dr. Ruth H. Preller
Superintendent Oceanography Division
Code 7300
ruth.preller@nrlssc.navy.mil
Black line denotes independent ice edge analysis from National Ice Center
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
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Arctic Ice Thickness Observations
• Satellite derived measurements of basin wide ice
coverage (concentration) have existed since 1973
(ESMR, SMMR, SSM/I, SSMIS passive
microwave data)
SSM/I percent ice
concentration derived
using the Navy CalVal
Algorithm
• However, measurements of ice thickness have
been sparse in space and time
– Sparse under ice submarine observations
– Ice camp or field experiment point
measurements (e.g., ULS)
– Ice Mass Balance Buoys (6 cover the Arctic
presently)
– Estimates from ice concentration data (multiyear, first-year or new ice)
– ICESat provided spatially intense but limited
in time ice thickness measurements.
Dr. Ruth H. Preller
Superintendent Oceanography Division
Code 7300
ruth.preller@nrlssc.navy.mil
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
((Top)
CRREL Ice Mass Balance
Buoy
(Left) WHOI Ice Tethered Buoy
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NRL ARI (FY12-FY16)
Determining the Impact of Sea Ice Thickness on the
Arctic’s Naturally Changing Environment (DISTANCE)
• Objective: Understand the changing Arctic environment,
characterized by reduced ice volume, using new techniques for
deriving accurate multi-sensor snow and ice thickness information
and coupled ice-ocean models to explore the new Arctic dynamics.
• Payoff: Provide the Navy with an improved forecast capability
that accurately describes these changing conditions in the Arctic
and provide new global fields of snow and ice thickness for data
assimilation.
Dr. Ruth H. Preller
Superintendent Oceanography Division
Code 7300
ruth.preller@nrlssc.navy.mil
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
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DISTANCE Approach
•Develop new algorithms from satellite and aircraft
measurements to determine Arctic-wide satellite-derived ice
and snow thickness;
•Validate/calibrate these new measurements with an Arctic insitu/airborne field program;
•Utilize the Navy’s coupled ice-ocean model and these new
data types to better understand the impact of ice and snow
volume on Arctic dynamics and thermodynamics;
•Evaluate ocean processes that now play a larger role in the
prediction of the reduced volume ice-ocean system, e.g., wave
dynamics.
Dr. Ruth H. Preller
Superintendent Oceanography Division
Code 7300
ruth.preller@nrlssc.navy.mil
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
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QUESTIONS?
richard.coffin@nrl.navy.mil
202-767-0065
2 0 1 0 Climate & Ener gy Symposium
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