69 Brigadier General Gerald Galloway, Jr. I want to start off by stipulating that certainly we can all agree that climate change is an issue. It is all of the things you see in Figure 1, and worst of all, it is the combination of all of these things. Importantly, too, the chart does not include such effects as subsidence that creates relative sea-level rise in many locations. So, we are faced with some very interesting challenges as we move forward. Climate change impacts are not only a U.S. problem but also a world problem, which means that wherever our forces are deployed and wherever we have bases and infrastructure, we will have to keep this in mind. The other aspect of this is the way we think about the future. Brigadier General Gerald Galloway, Jr., is a Glenn L. Martin Institute Professor of Engineering and Affiliate Professor of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, where he teaches and conducts research in national water resources policy and management, flood mitigation, and disaster management. He has served as a consultant to national and international government and business organizations. He is currently an advisor to The Nature Conservancy on its Yangtze River Program, a member of the Louisiana Governor’s commission on coastal protection, and co-chair of the World Water Assessment Programme’s Experts Group on Policy and was recently appointed by the Secretary of State as one of three inaugural Energy and Climate Partnership of the Americas Fellows. He has been Presidential appointee to the Mississippi River Commission and was assigned to the White House to lead a study of the 1993 Mississippi River Flood. He served in the U.S. Army for 38 years, retiring as a Brigadier General and Dean of Academics at West Point. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering and a Fellow of the National Academy of Public Administration. 70 Climate and Energy Proceedings 2011 Figure 1. Stipulation: There Are Climate Challenges I like Figure 2 a lot, because it tells the way I grew up. In the old days, you looked at planning from the present to the future, and you looked down a narrow tube and you saw at the end what it might be like in 50 years. It looked almost like it did today. You could assume that, especially in terms of climate, things would be about the same. As a hydrologist, I had all sorts of formulas that were based on stationarity—the concept that the future can be based on the past. Figure 2. Planning for Uncertainty  Somebody reported 2 years ago that stationarity is dead. What does that mean? Well, it means that the future is going to be far different than the past. Instead of looking down a thin pipe, we are now looking out through a cone. That total area there shown by the cone is the space of potential variability—the broad set of potential scenarios that might occur as the result of climate change. Chapter 3 Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Challenges 71 Sea-level rise might be 0.8 meters, or it might be 2 or 3 meters. Right now, we really do not know. And you can stack into that all of the other changes that are occurring around us. So, planning under uncertainty today has yet to be figured out. I will give you a clue. If you want to build a levee somewhere in the United States, you ask, well, what is the 100-year flood going to be in 50 years? It is not going to be what it is today; it is going to be considerably different. But we do not know yet what it is going to be. So how do you plan under those sets of circumstances? As you go forward the question then becomes, how do you convince people who are used to having things the same, and who think in terms of 4- or 5-year increments, to think about what has to be 50 or 60 years from now? It is a problem that we have to overcome in dealing with infrastructure because truly, tomorrow’s infrastructure will not be the same as today’s. What is infrastructure? Well, as many of my students would tell you, the best place to start is Wikipedia. So I pulled this definition for what we might want to call maritime infrastructure (Figure 3). Figure 3. Maritime Infrastructure I think it is important to recognize that infrastructure is a lot of things. It is the bases from which we operate. It is the places where people live, where people work, and the locations around that particular area that provide protection–the breakwaters, the levees, and the other sorts of facilities we have. So it is a pretty complex undertaking when you try and pin down what infrastructure is. 72 Climate and Energy Proceedings 2011 When you get into critical infrastructure, you can narrow it a bit, but you do not really have critical infrastructure that operates in the long term without the rest of that infrastructure. What are the potential climate change threats to our coastal infrastructure? Well, as you can see from Figure 4, it is not just the coast because in most of the areas in which we operate, the coast is the location where rivers enter the sea. So, we will have problems with riverine flooding. We also have maritime installations on our inland waterways, and those that are very important to our international commerce. You can take the largest port in the United States, Southern Louisiana. How much of that is far from the sea? So, increased riverine flooding begins to take a toll. Figure 4. Potential Coastal Climate Change Threats What about increased hurricanes and typhoons? They are going to cause a problem. They are going to create surges that we have not yet experienced, increased storm-water flooding. It turns out that the British have been looking at their problems from water and flooding and they have discovered that about 30% of the flood damages do not come from riverine flooding or from coastal flooding, they come from pluvial flooding or storm-water flooding. The problem with that is, as the intensity of rainfall increases, getting rid of all that additional water poses an even greater challenge. And if sea level is in fact higher, you will have that same problem of where do you put that additional water? And if climate change results in more frequent storms, you will have even more water to deal with. What then do you do, what are the potential climate change challenges that we face as we move forward? As shown in Figure 5, Chapter 3 Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Challenges 73 certainly the inundation of developed areas will be a concern. That is something we are already facing in many places, and it is going to get worse from the three climate change effects that I noted earlier. If you look at downtown Washington, D.C., you will recognize we have all of those problems there. They are not unique to just coastal areas. Any area that is near waters that can be influenced by tidal variations will also be affected by the problems with storm surges and sea-level rise. Figure 5. Impacts of Climate Change on Infrastructure The next challenge that we will have to face is erosion. Erosion can cause you to lose many of your important facilities. It can degrade your protection systems; breakwaters can come apart, and levies can be undermined. Erosion can also degrade transportation facilities. If you cannot move cargo out of a port, then you have a problem. If you cannot bring supplies in because of the connectivity to the mainland or other areas around, you have a significant problem. Yet another consideration that is not often thought of as a climate change effect is the potential impact on our wetlands and on our groundwater. For many years, as sea level has been rising, the West Coast has been experiencing an increasing intrusion of salinity into groundwater supplies in that very arid region. While there are steps that one can take, all of those require resources. As you may have read, we are also rapidly losing wetlands. The state of Louisiana, for example, is losing about 25–40 square miles of coastal wetlands each year. These areas are important because they provide barrier protection to the people who live in 74 Climate and Energy Proceedings 2011 that region. They also protect the 35% of our nation’s oil and gas industry that is located along the Gulf Coast. You can go on and on. The point is that we need to be conscious of all of the components of the overall infrastructure. Well, what can we do about it? I will not go through a detailed discussion of this, but I will point out some comments that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) made about sea-level rise. What can you do? You can retreat, you can move away. That is not very feasible for most of the facilities for the services, whether it be Army, Navy, or Air Force. You can accommodate by doing things such as elevating homes, elevating structures, and raising the facilities you already have and adapt in much the same way. The adaptation is different from the accommodation in the sense that you can adapt over time—you can build a program that will let you make changes as sea level rises. This approach, however, is not always the most efficient from a resource standpoint. The third way you can deal with it is to try to protect your installations by building more levees and sea walls. As we learned in Louisiana, that is only a risk-reduction tool, not a protection tool. It does not guarantee you anything. All of these things are going to cost you money, and that is the challenge. Engineers have the ability to deal with these particular challenges, but they require resources and large amounts of resources. So what are we dealing with? We are dealing with the identification of risk and how we are going to deal with that risk. What are we going to do to make risk go down as we move forward? What sorts of things can we implement? How much risk is too much for the Navy or for the Army or for the Air Force? How are we going to deal with that at Joint Base Langley-Eustis? How much protection should you provide? I think that is the challenge. Figure 6 shows the typical description of risk. Unacceptable risk is shown as dark blue. We all know what that is—we are not going to fly in an airplane with no engines or one that is about to fall apart. Acceptable risk appears at the bottom. Those of us who drove here today determined that the risk associated with doing so Chapter 3 Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Challenges 75 was acceptable risk or else we would have chosen to stay home. So, we know what that level of risk means. The open question is: What do we do with that area in the middle? Who decides where we are in that? That level of risk applies to everything we are doing in the risk management for installations. We are going to have to make some tough decisions. Then, we will need to put the money where the risk is the greatest. Figure 6. What Do Risk Values Mean?  There is another challenge that we need to address as we move forward. We need to know where we currently stand. As a member of the American Society of Civil Engineers, I can report that we have a problem with our infrastructure. The report card that we received in 2009 gave our nation a D grade for its infrastructure. We are not doing well in maintaining what we have. Those of us who have been in the service have experienced this over our lifetime. It always gets to the crunch point where money has to be diverted to operations. Where does that money come from? It inevitably comes from maintenance. As a result, we have ended up with infrastructure that is not as good as we would like it to be. The second thing we need to do is identify what risks we actually have. It is amazing as you look at the coastal United States and the related riverine flood environment, we do not really know what our exposure is. In some cases, we do not want to know because we are afraid that the cost of reducing that exposure will 76 Climate and Energy Proceedings 2011 be too high. So what do we do about that? We need to find out what our exposure is and then assess the risk. Once we have done that, we can develop an action plan that will deal with the issues over the long haul. Why am I showing you that the population is increasing (Figures 7 and 8)? Figure 7. Population Growth Figure 8. The Boom to Come  Chapter 3 Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Challenges 77 We know that we are going to face an increase in population in this country over the next 15–30 years. The Census Bureau says that the U.S. population could increase by as much as 150 million. That is a lot of people. They have to go somewhere. Where they seem most likely to go are the places that they have been going recently: our coastal areas. Given this increase in population, we know that we are going to have an increase in construction. We also know that roughly 40% of our nation’s existing infrastructure needs to be replaced because it is simply too old. So, between now and 2050, we are going to have a massive construction program going on. At the same time, we are going to have problems from the rising sea level. How do we deal with this nexus of problems? Well, I think the challenge comes because what happens on our military bases actually carries over to what happens in the communities nearby. Similarly, what happens in those communities affects what happens on our bases. We are not independent anymore. As much as we would like to stand on our own, there is a connectivity there that is very important. We share utilities in many cases. We share the same transportation networks. Although many of our military installations have their own medical facilities, in emergencies, they may have to rely on the resources available in the civilian community. Transportation includes the relevant infrastructure internal to the immediate region as well as facilities that support transportation that extends beyond the region such as overseas shipping. This latter component includes shipyards and related facilities that provide the base for what we are doing. Thus, the city of Norfolk is critically important to the overall Hampton Roads military area. If we are dealing with these places, we have to take them with us as we move forward. To ignore sea-level rise and the climate change impacts on these communities is at our own peril because what happens to them is going to happen to us. We have to figure out a way—using our joint land use studies and some of the other things done by the DoD—to address climate change on a win–win basis with our local communities. 78 Climate and Energy Proceedings 2011 What is my bottom line as we go forward? Climate change is going to happen. I do not think we can avoid that. As a professor at the University of Maryland, I frequently have students who still do not believe in climate change; they say, “No, I have learned at home that there is no such thing as climate change.” But gradually, as they see and learn more about what is happening around them, and as the number of natural disasters grows every year, they come to believe that climate change is occurring and that it is going to have a significant impact on our maritime infrastructure. It is possible to deal with climate change impacts on infrastructure, so we need to start thinking about what we are going to do and develop the appropriate plans, whether they are adaptation, protection, or retreat. Tough decisions are going to have to be made regarding priorities, acceptable risk, and resource levels/funding. Installation protection is not as sexy as some of the other things that we have heard about today, but it is just as critical for the wellbeing of our force, especially the Army and the Air Force, who are not as used to water as the Navy and the Coast Guard are. Clearly, something needs to be done, and we have to recognize that in addition to the things we do for ourselves, somehow we have to influence the things that are done for others as we move forward. I think we have to always remember that nature bats last and nature does not make any promises. It cannot say that we are going to be here or there in 15, 20, or 40 years. We just know something is happening, and we had better be ready for it. REFERENCES 1. Malcolm Pirnie, Inc. and Denver Water (Waage), Decision Support Planning Methods: Incorporating Climate Change Uncertainties into Water Planning, 2010, http://www.wucaonline.org/assets/ pdf/pubs_whitepaper_012110.pdf. 2. E. Mark Lee, How Does Climate Change Affect the Assessment of Landslide Risk?, 2006. 3. Arthur Nelson, “America Circa 2030: The Boom To Come,” Architect, 2006, http://www.architectmagazine.com/retailprojects/america-circa-2030-the-boom-to-come.aspx.