Housing Finance Policy Center
Lunchtime Data Talk
Housing Data: Home Sales,
Affordability, and Realtor/Builder
Activity
Lawrence Yun, National Association
of Realtors
David Crowe, National Association
of Home Builders
December 9, 2013
NAR Housing Data
Existing Home Sales
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at the Urban Institute
Washington, D.C.
December 9, 2013
2
NAR Data
Existing Home Sales
3
Existing Home Sales
20% cumulative increase over 2 years
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
4
Median Home Price
$240,000
$220,000
$200,000
$180,000
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
5
Pending Sales (Contracts, not Closings)
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
- Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan
Source: NAR
6
Data Collection
• Multiple Listing Service reporting by summary
(form)
• Electronic Connection to Individual Multiple Listing
Service
• State Association Aggregators
– Across MLSs in the state
– One state-association MLS
7
Multiple Listing Services
• Multiple listing services enable brokers to cooperate
and make the real estate transaction more efficient
• There are over 900 multiple listing services in the
US
• Monthly Panel
– About 200 boards are selected to participate in
the panel upon which monthly home sales
estimate is based
– Boards are selected for representativeness and
reliability
8
Existing Home Sales Overview – Quarterly data
• Single Family Median Prices by Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA) for approximately 150 MSAs
• Condominium Median Prices by Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA) for approximately 60 MSAs
• Metro-level Affordability Index
– Qualifying Income by MSA
– Affordability Index by MSA
9
Pending Home Sales
• Pending sales are those identified by MLSs as
“pending,” typically under contract
– Total pending counts in the MLS or
– Newly pending that occurred during the month
• Pending home sales data is reported as an index
10
Periodic Revisions
– Validate private industry source with other outside,
preferably with public data
– Changes to For-Sale-By-Owner home sales
– Flipping of a home (re-sell within 12 months)
• Re-benchmarked figure excludes the second sale,
while they are counted as twice in MLS count
– Enlarged MLS geographic coverage
• Some of the home sales are not an increase in
home sales but are just due to enlarged sampled
areas
11
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Last Revision
Annual Figures – Old and New
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
old
new
2000
1000
0
12
What was Revised?
• No Revision to Median Home Price
• No Revision to Months Supply of Inventory
• Downward Revision to Home Sales
• Downward Revision to Inventory
•
•
•
•
•
No Changes to Reported Financial Statements by Brokerages
No Changes to Homeownership Rate
No Changes to Local MLS data on Sales and Prices
No Changes to Mortgage Default and Foreclosure
No Changes to Underwater Status
13
Home Sellers and Their Experience
Exhibit 6-27
METHOD USED TO SELL HOME, 2001-2011
(Percentage Distribution)
2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sold home using an agent or
broker
79% 83% 82% 85%
For-sale-by-owner (FSBO)
84% 85% 84%
85% 88%
87%
13
14
14
13
12
12
13
11
9
10
Sold to home buying company
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Other
7
3
3
2
3
2
2
3
3
2
Source: NAR Home Buyer and Seller Survey
14
Future Rebenchmark Plans
• Rebenchmark as better source of data becomes
more readily available or due to notable data drift
– Courthouse Data LPS, CoreLogic, DataQuick
• Realtor Property Resource® (RPR)
– Utilizing detailed property level data of both
deeds records and MLS information as potential
future source
• Exploring the Development of Repeat-Price Index
using Timely MLS data
15
Home Builder Data
Urban Institute
December 9, 2013
David Crowe
Chief Economist
16
New Home Sales
17
New Home Sales
 Collected by Census Bureau, funded by HUD
 Released roughly 17th working day of month
 Sample is roughly1 in 50 new homes
 From list of building permits and canvassing in non-permit areas (<2%)
 Four types (only 1st is included):
– houses built for sale (whether sold or not) where the house and land are sold as a package
– contractor-built houses where the owner of the land hires a general contractor to build the house
– owner-built houses where the owner of the land builds the house him/herself or acts as the general
contractor
– houses built for rent
 Each month also includes revisions to previous 3 months
 Each April revisions to 27 months SA data
 Signed contract moment (similar to NAR pending home sale)
18
Jan-63
Dec-64
Nov-66
Oct-68
Sep-70
Aug-72
Jul-74
Jun-76
May-78
Apr-80
Mar-82
Feb-84
Jan-86
Dec-87
Nov-89
Oct-91
Sep-93
Aug-95
Jul-97
Jun-99
May-01
Apr-03
Mar-05
Feb-07
Jan-09
Dec-10
Nov-12
New Home Sales History
(000s)
1,400
1
1,200
0.9
0.8
1,000
0.7
800
0.6
0.5
600
0.4
400
0.3
200
0.2
0.1
0
0
19
New Home Sales Confidence
Interval – July to August 2013
68%
60%
56%
40%
20%
44%
8%
0%
20%
23%
15%
9%
16%
-7%
-14%
-15%
-20%
-28%
-38%
-45%
-40%
US
NE
MW
20
SO
WE
Existing Home Sales (L)
21
New Home Sales (R)
Jan-12
Mar-10
May-08
Jul-06
Sep-04
Nov-02
Jan-01
Mar-99
May-97
Jul-95
Sep-93
Nov-91
Jan-90
Mar-88
May-86
Jul-84
Sep-82
Nov-80
Jan-79
Mar-77
May-75
Jul-73
Sep-71
Nov-69
Jan-68
Home Sales
(000s)
7,000
1,600
6,000
1,400
5,000
1,200
4,000
1,000
800
3,000
600
2,000
400
1,000
200
0
0
New Home Sales and NAHB HMI
1,600
(000s)
100
90
1,400
80
1,200
70
1,000
60
800
50
600
40
30
400
20
200
10
0
Jan '85
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan '96
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan '07
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
0
New Home Sales (L)
HMI Expected Sales (R)
22
Housing Opportunity Index
23
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing
Opportunity Index
 The share of homes recently sold affordable to median income
Affordability for 250+ MSAs
 Quarterly since 1991
 Recent sales from CoreLogic
 Income from HUD
 Interest rate fro FHFA
 30 year fixed rate mortgage, 28% of income to PITI, 10% down payment, local
taxes and insurance from ACS
 www.nahb.org/hoi
24
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing
Opportunity Index
80
78
75
70
65
65
60
55
50
45
Q113
Q311
Q110
Q308
Q305
Q104
Q399
Q198
Q396
Q195
Q393
Q192
Q101
25
Q107
40
40
Large Metro Ranks
10 Most Affordable Metro Areas
10 Least Affordable Metro Areas
1
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN
1
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA ^^^
1
Syracuse, NY
2
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA ^^^
3
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
3
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA ^^^
4
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
4
New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ ^^^
5
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
5
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
6
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
6
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
7
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA
7
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
8
Wichita, KS
8
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA ^^^
9
Toledo, OH
9
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
10
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN
10
Honolulu, HI
26
Small Metro Ranks
10 Most Affordable Metro Areas
10 Least Affordable Metro Areas
1
Kokomo, IN
1
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
2
Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ
2
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA
3
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL
3
Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
4
Bay City, MI
4
Napa, CA
5
Springfield, OH
5
Salinas, CA
6
Dover, DE
6
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA
7
Monroe, MI
7
Laredo, TX
8
Salisbury, MD
8
Barnstable Town, MA
9
Cumberland, MD-WV
9
Ocean City, NJ
10
Fairbanks, AK
10
Bend, OR
27
NAR Data
Affordability Index
28
29
2013 - Jan
2011 - Jan
2009 - Jan
2007 - Jan
2005 - Jan
2003 - Jan
2001 - Jan
1999 - Jan
1997 - Jan
1995 - Jan
1993 - Jan
1991 - Jan
1989 - Jan
1987 - Jan
1985 - Jan
1983 - Jan
1981 - Jan
1979 - Jan
1977 - Jan
1975 - Jan
1973 - Jan
1971 - Jan
Falling Affordability to 5-year Low
But still 5th best in 40 years
250
200
150
100
50
0
Housing Affordability Index
• Component Factors:
1) median sales price; 2) mortgage rate; 3) median
family income
• Ratio of Qualifying Income to Median Income
• Index interpretation:
Index=100 when median family income qualifies for
an 80% mortgage on a median priced existing
single-family home. Index > 100 indicates that
more than half of buyers can afford to purchase a
median-priced home.
• The higher the index, more can buy
30
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
Median Family Income
70000
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
31
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
30-yr fixed mortgage rate
9%
8
7
6
5
4
3
32
-5
-10
-15
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
Rising Home Prices
(% change from one year ago)
Blue = NAR Median Price
Red = Case-Shiller Index
20
15
10
5
0
-20
-25
33
NAR Data
REALTOR Survey Data
34
REALTORS® Confidence Index
• Monthly survey of REALTORS® providing
information on residential market
conditions and outlook
• Random, on-line survey
• Approximately 3,000 responses each month
35
Questionnaire
Market Conditions.
• Current Conditions Confidence Index for SF, Condo.
• Six Months Ahead Confidence Index for SF, Condo.
• Buyer and Seller Traffic Index.
• Distressed Sales – Volume, Price Discounts, Property
Condition.
• Time on Market.
Buyer and Seller Characteristics.
• Cash/Non-cash.
• Type of Buyer – First Time, Investor
Current Issues
• Special Questions—e.g., impacts of government shutdown, etc.
36
37
2013 - Jul
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jan
10%
2012 - Oct
2012 - Jul
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jan
2011 - Oct
2011 - Jul
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jan
2010 - Oct
2010 - Jul
2010 - Apr
2010 - Jan
2009 - Oct
2009 - Jul
40%
2009 - Apr
2009 - Jan
2008 - Oct
All-Cash Buyers Stayed High … even when
mortgages were cheap
(Cash share as % of total home sales)
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
Normal Range
5%
0%
2008 - Jan
2008 - Apr
2008 - Jul
2008 - Oct
2009 - Jan
2009 - Apr
2009 - Jul
2009 - Oct
2010 - Jan
2010 - Apr
2010 - Jul
2010 - Oct
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
Buyer and Seller Traffic
How Much from Gov’t Shutdown and Dysfunction?
Buyer
38
Seller
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
NAHB Surveys
39
NAHB Builders Surveys
 Housing Markets
 Single-family (monthly since 1984)
 Multifamily (quarterly since 2003)
 Remodeling (quarterly since 2001)
 55+ (quarterly since 2008)
 Leading Markets Index
40
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing
Market Index
 Released monthly on day before starts
 Survey in first 10 days of month
 Same questions on
 Current sales (good, fair, poor),
 Expected sales over next 6 months (good, fair, poor)
 Traffic (high/very high, average, low/very low)
 Diffusion index based from 0 to 100 (good - poor, divide by 2 and add 50)
(after seasonal adjustment)
 National and four census regions
41
Jan '85
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan '96
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan '07
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing
Market Index
90
100
80
90
70
72
60
42
80
54
50
40
30
70
60
50
40
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
NAHB HMI & Single-family Starts
2,000
90
(000s)
1,800
80
1,600
70
1,400
60
1,200
50
1,000
40
800
30
600
400
20
200
10
SF Starts (L)
43
HMI (R)
Jan '13
Jan '11
Jan '09
Jan '07
Jan '05
Jan '03
Jan '01
Jan '99
Jan '97
Jan '95
Jan '93
Jan '91
Jan '89
Jan '87
0
Jan '85
0
NAHB Multifamily Housing
Market Index
 Quarterly 1 ½ month after end of quarter
 Production and vacancy indexes
 Production index:
 Stronger, same, weaker for
 low income, market rate and condo markets
 Vacancy index:
 Higher, same, lower for
 Class A, B and C
 Diffusion index
44
MF starts (L)
45
Production Index (R)
Mar-13
Oct-12
May-12
Dec-11
Jul-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Apr-10
Nov-09
Jun-09
Jan-09
Aug-08
Mar-08
Oct-07
May-07
Dec-06
Jul-06
Feb-06
Sep-05
Apr-05
Nov-04
Jun-04
Jan-04
Aug-03
405
Mar-03
Multifamily Housing Market Index
- Production
(000s)
70
355
60
305
50
255
40
205
155
30
105
20
55
10
5
0
Census Vacancy Rate (L)
46
NAHB Vancacy Index (R)
1-Aug-13
1-Mar-13
1-Oct-12
1-May-12
1-Dec-11
1-Jul-11
1-Feb-11
1-Sep-10
1-Apr-10
1-Nov-09
1-Jun-09
1-Jan-09
1-Aug-08
1-Mar-08
1-Oct-07
1-May-07
1-Dec-06
1-Jul-06
1-Feb-06
1-Sep-05
1-Apr-05
1-Nov-04
1-Jun-04
1-Jan-04
1-Aug-03
1-Mar-03
Multifamily Housing Market Index
- Vacancy
14
13
75
12
65
11
55
10
45
9
35
8
7
25
6
15
5
5
Remodeling Market Index
 Current market conditions
 Major additions & alterations for owners and renters
 Minor additions & alterations for owners and renters
 Maintenance & repair for owners and renters
 Future market conditions
 Calls for bids for owners and renters
 Committed work in next 6 months for owners and renters
 Backlog of committed jobs
 Appointments for proposals
 Diffusion index using: higher, about the same, lower ratings
47
Remodeling Market Indexes
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
2001
2002
2003
2004
RMI
2005
2006
2007
Current conditions
48
2008
2009
2010
Future conditions
2011
2012
2013
NAHB/First American Leading
Markets Index
 Progress toward normality
 Compare most recent 12 months levels to ‘normal’ year
 Single-family permits from Census- last normal 2000-2003
 House price index from Freddie Mac - last normal 2000-2003
 Employment from BLS – last normal 2007
 Index is average of three ratios
 Monthly on fourth working day
 All 360+ MSAs
49
NAHB/First American Leading
Markets Index
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.85
0.8
0.7
0.6
01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13
50
NAHB/First American Leading
Markets Index
Rank Oct-2013
Bottom 20%
20% to 40%
40% to 60%
60% to 80%
Top 20%
51
Relative
to Normal
< 74%
74% - 81%
81% - 87%
87% - 97%
97% <
Questions?
Answers:
www.housingeconomics.com
eyeonhousing.org
dcrowe@nahb.org
52