Bigotsgate: Final Debate Reaction
Dr Paul Baines
Andrew Kirchner
With his verdict on the final Leaders’ Debate, I am joined again by
Dr Paul Baines.
So Paul, who came out on top last night?
Paul Baines
Well I think it was a clear win for Cameron; two of the polls indicated
that Cameron was on top – that is YouGov for The Sun and ComRes
for ITV News. Populus had them neck and neck.
But I think most people would agree that Cameron came out on top.
But this debate, according to our own data from the MESH Election
Experience Monitor indicates that actually the TV debate is now
persuading as many people to vote as it is not persuading people to
vote; in other words, it’s overall net persuasiveness is zero. So most
people have started to make up their minds.
So this third debate is much less influential than the first two
debates have been. Interestingly enough though, a survey from
Ipsos MORI in the marginals indicates that actually something like
40% – around 45 to 50% of voters – have still got to make up their
mind as to who to vote for. So it seems that even at this late stage,
Andrew, it is still all to play for.
Andrew Kirchner
How do you think Gordon Brown’s gaff in Rochdale will play out on
the Labour vote?
Paul Baines
It certainly got a lot of negative experience and his key aids, Alan
Johnson and others were certainly trying to put the best on it and
making it look as if this is the sort of thing that all humans do – and
to some extent that is true.
Our own data from the MESH Election Experience Monitor indicates
that actually that had a particularly negative effect on women in
particular, who did see him as two faced and as showing his true
colours – those were the comments that our floating voters gave us.
But there was also a little bit of sympathy for him too.
However, I think what it will have done – and this seems to have fed
through in terms of the TV news and the radio news – those
channels are now starting to become very much less persuasive, in
fact negatively persuasive. And what that indicates, I think, is that
Brown’s gaff will probably depress the Labour vote. And I think that
is shared with a survey that came out yesterday – YouGov for The
Sun – which indicates that around 40% of Labour voters, 20% have
decided they won’t vote and another 20% are wondering whether
they really should vote Labour after all. So I think Bigotsgate has
probably damaged him quite a bit.
Knowledge Interchange Online© Cranfield University
April 2010
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Dr Paul Baines
Andrew Kirchner
OK, so taking a crystal ball, what is your prediction for the final
result?
Paul Baines
Well that is a very difficult question. I have just alluded to 40% of
voters still making up their mind in the last week, which is rather
unprecedented in the last 30 odd years, I guess.
It looks like the choice is either between a hung Parliament and a
small Conservative majority. Given that Labour’s vote is probably
going to be depressed as a result of Bigotsgate and his relatively
poorer performance – although he did a bit better last night than he
has perhaps done before – but given his relatively poor performance
in the three debates, given the importance of that channel now, I
would predict a small Conservative majority.
Andrew Kirchner
We will find out next week. Thank you very much, Paul.
Paul Baines
Thanks a lot Andrew.
© Cranfield University
April 2010
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