Publisher Edwin L. Griffin Jr., CAE Publications Staff Bruce MacMillan, Associate Publisher Welcome to FUTUREWATCH 2003 John Delavan, Director of Publications/Managing Editor Blair Potter, Assistant Managing Editor Funmi Okunbolade, Editor Angela Chiarello, Assistant Editor Editorial Support Allison Ellis, Director of Marketing T his unique analysis by Meeting Professionals International (MPI) and American Express focuses on expectations for the Bill Voegeli, President, Association Insights meeting industry in 2003 and beyond. Diverging from typical Design Derek Huscroft, Graphic Designer Gary Rockwood, Graphic Designer industry analysis that reflect only planners’ perspectives, Printed by RR Donnelley & Sons Company, Senatobia, Mississippi, USA FutureWatch 2003 delivers an industry first with insights from FutureWatch 2003 is an official supplement to the January 2003 issue of The Meeting Professional, the official publication of Meeting Professionals International, a professional association of meeting planners and suppliers. Members receive The Meeting Professional as a membership benefit paid for by membership dues; $25 of membership is allotted to The Meeting Professional and is nondeductible there from. Nonmembers may subscribe to the publication for $50 annually ($69 international). For subscription information, deletions and address updates, call (972) 702-3020 or e-mail publications@mpiweb.org. File address changes with the U.S. Postal Service online at www.moversguide.com. Copyright 2003, Meeting Professionals International, All Rights Reserved. planners and suppliers throughout North America and Europe. FutureWatch 2003 is the most extensive, forward-focused study ever conducted by MPI, the leading global community for the meeting industry, with nearly 20,000 members in 60 countries. Its significant findings go beyond speculative water- TABLE cooler assumptions and statistically validate that the business OF CONTENTS 4 6 8 10 of meetings is, indeed, undergoing a dramatic Summary of Significant Findings evolution. It also establishes Examine synopses of the FutureWatch 2003 survey's key revelations. a new baseline for annual Trend Analysis industry intelligence from Drill down to discover the critical trends emerging among planners and suppliers. MPI, replacing the less- Additional Survey Data Pivotal data points for planners and suppliers are presented in easy-to-follow graph and pie chart formats. Background comprehensive Meetings Outlook Surveys conducted in 2000 and 2001. ▲ Take a closer look at how the FutureWatch 2003 survey was conducted. www.themeetingprofessional.org FUTUREWATCH 2003 I 3I FUTUREWATCH 2003 Summaryof significant findings n 2003, the aggregate economic size of the meeting industry in the United States, Canada and Europe is not expected to change. In the “no surprises” category, the overall size of the meeting industry will not change significantly, with meeting planners’ expectations of budget size, venue selection and number of meetings projected in 2003 statistically equivalent to actual 2002 figures. There is a major divergence, however, between projected meeting planner spending and supplier revenues in 2003, as well as projected growth in numbers of meetings. In total, planners and suppliers are more than 7 percentage points apart in projected revenues vs. projected spend, and 5 percentage points apart in the estimated number of meetings in 2003 vs. actual number of meetings held in 2002. What does this mean for the industry? There likely will be a greater commoditization as meeting planning becomes more of a price-based model and suppliers become even more driven to capture greater market share. In 2003, a shift continues in the responsibilities of planners and suppliers to prove the value of meetings. For a long time, the meeting industry was a seller’s market, with the burden on planners to prove value in meeting location and venue decisions. In a post9/11 world of uncertainty and instability, the tables are turned. No longer are planners or the organizations they plan for willing to take economic risk through inflexible attrition or cancellation clauses. Suppliers now must bear a larger burden by proving the value of their offering and I 4 I FUTUREWATCH 2003 absorbing more of the economic risk. Planners want greater assurance that their meeting business commitment will not result in overwhelming loss in the case of catastrophe. In 2003, use of and investment in technology by suppliers and planners will continue to increase substantially and reshape how industry business is conducted. Suppliers and planners will continue to increase their reliance on the Internet for information distribution and bookings, with suppliers investing substantially in customer relationship management (CRM) technology, training and staff in 2003. This will lessen in greater degrees their reliance on face-toface networking and traditional personal interaction when marketing and selling. In 2003, independent planners will hold more of the purse strings, with projections for larger budgets than their traditionally better funded corporate counterparts. Downsizing has indeed led to a shift in who has the biggest budgets, with independent planners gaining a significant lead over corporate planners in overall average spending planned for 2003. In 2003, more meeting business opportunities will emerge for suppliers in emerging, nontraditional meeting markets. As budgets remain tight and businesstravel budget restrictions continue, some meeting planners will continue to look for less expensive, regional alternatives to higher-priced, high-profile destinations. ▲ www.themeetingprofessional.org Substantiated by the facts he year 2002 was a challenging transitional one for the global meeting industry. In 2003, the evolution continues as planners and suppliers collaborate to use the lessons of the past year to shape the meeting industry’s next generation. This study’s most notable economic finding is a prediction of statistically insignificant changes to meeting planner budgets from 2002 to 2003 as planners project a 1.1 percent decline, with geographies differing slightly. Canadian planners, while reporting the lowest average annual budgets at nearly USD$1.57 million (approximately CDN$2.4 million), expect the highest budget growth at 3.8 percent. European planners report the highest average annual budgets at just under $4 million (approximately E 3.9 million) and predict a 2.9 percent budget increase. In the United States, meeting planners project an average 1.7 percent decline and control average annual budgets of $3.3 million. In addition, in 2003, planners who categorize themselves as independent now lead the average budget category with more than $4.8 million in annual spending, nearly $800,000 above corporate planners, with consultants following at $3 million. However, while planners overall project a decline—albeit a small one—in budgets, there will be great pressure to close a significant gap as overall meeting suppliers are hoping for an increase in 2003 revenues of more than 6 percent. Canadian suppliers are the most aggressive, with a projected 8.3 percent increase, followed by their U.S. colleagues at 5.8 percent and European suppliers at 2.9 percent. In addition, suppliers are predicting a 6 % increase in the number of meetings they hold in 2003 vs. 2002 while planners are projecting a 1.1 percent increase. This further exerts pressure on suppliers to provide products and services at lower prices by fostering more heated competition between properties, venues and destinations. The continued swing to a buyer’s market means suppliers now have a greater burden to provide value to meeting attendees. ▲ www.themeetingprofessional.org FUTUREWATCH 2003 I 5I FUTUREWATCH 2003 Trend analysis he recent global economic downturn and changes in business travel policies after 9/11 have also impacted the fundamentals of business relationships between meeting suppliers and planners. Altered company policies in response to new economic and political factors have many planners losing flexibility in budgets, contract provisions, lead times and destination choices. The inability to accept broad provisos due to stricter corporate guidelines—combined with destinations attempting to capture more business—will keep the highly deliberated topic of cancellation and attrition clauses up for debate in 2003. Interestingly, suppliers have placed a relatively low priority (fourth place out of four options) on becoming less stringent with cancellation and attrition clauses, instead focusing on more flexible pricing, additional incentives and personal service to better help planners in 2003. Planners, however, rate relaxation of cancellation and attrition practices as the second most significant operational trend in 2003. Planners’ increased use of the Internet to window shop for venues and destinations—projected to increase a whopping 23 percent in 2003—will marginally diminish meeting suppliers’ influence over planners’ initial impressions of their offerings. However, planners’ expectations to increase actual Internet bookings of meetings rose disproportionately by only 5 percent. Companies that supply technology to the meeting industry should be happy to hear that suppliers chose multiple technology categories in which they were planning improvements, including 81 percent of suppliers saying they would invest in Web site improvements. The development of online booking systems also received a nod from 47 percent of suppliers. T Key takeaways In 2003, as the threat of commoditization and a desire for less stringent cancellation and attrition clauses. success. Meanwhile, suppliers must be more competitive due to revenue targets that exceed budgeted meeting spend. Amid proven growth in emerging markets, the emergence of new technologies and the looms, planner/supplier collaboration will be critical to the meeting industry’s Planners face more restrictions against taking financial risks, not only because of overall tight budgets, but also due to limitations in travel options I 6 I FUTUREWATCH 2003 transfer of sales and marketing to nonverbal tools, planners and suppliers will recognize a greater need to differentiate themselves. As a result, the meeting industry could endure increased commoditization and less human interaction between buyer and seller. These critical meeting industry changes ultimately reflect the end users of these services. Budget and staff cuts have created more impersonal organizations that have been forced to uncover cost-effective solutions to www.themeetingprofessional.org This transition to more electronic marketing and sales will further impact the balance of responsibility for value validation because suppliers will transfer some of their responsibilities for outbound market presence from people who work with people to people who work with computers. With less human interaction, suppliers ultimately must possess a better awareness of what questions need to be answered and where flexibility may be needed in order to secure business. Opportunities for less traditional meeting venues and destinations may be significant if suppliers can apply the proper strategies to inform, attract and retain the essential meeting planners and attendees. Primary markets will remain the mainstay of the 2003 meeting industry, but the percentage of planners (9 percent) who plan to increase focus on secondary, regional and domestic markets could have a major impact on some of those markets. Some planner respondents noted that some smaller and more local venues are less available, leading them to attempt tougher negotiations with primary markets. Regarding actual venue usage, most 2003 U.S. and Canadian meeting planner budgets will be split between city and resort hotels. In Europe, the majority will be split between city hotels and convention centers. ▲ organizational and managerial challenges, mostly through the deployment of more technological enhancements. Just as the meeting industry is moving toward more impersonal communications, so are the consumers of meeting products and services. Expect the deeper commitment toward more Web-based services to further evolve the relationship planner/supplier in 2003 and beyond, decreasing personal contact and transferring some marketing and sales www.themeetingprofessional.org responsibility. Beyond forcing suppliers to substantially differentiate and market themselves in a Web-ified dominated world, less interaction between planners and suppliers may reduce the need for—or the amount of—sales and marketing staff on the supplier side. In addition, if anyone can go online to book a meeting, what will that mean for meeting planners’ roles? As more of meeting services are handled by purchasing managers or procurement staff whose job it is to get the best price, the relationship-based, face-to- face, personalization model that forms the meeting industry’s foundation may erode. Clearly, now is the time for meeting professionals on both sides of the business to work together, developing solutions that will elucidate the value of interpersonal communication and minimize potential barriers in the industry. The commoditization of booking consumer travel through the Internet and the subsequent breakdown of the travel agent business model is great evidence of support for this petition. ▲ FUTUREWATCH 2003 I 7I FUTUREWATCH 2003 $4.8 million in 2003, planners who categorize themselves as independent now lead the average budget category with more than $4.8 million in annual spending. I 8 I FUTUREWATCH 2003 www.themeetingprofessional.org Additional survey data www.themeetingprofessional.org FUTUREWATCH 2003 I 9I FUTUREWATCH 2003 Background n late October 2002, Dallas-based Meeting Professionals International (MPI), in partnership with American Express, conducted FutureWatch 2003 to gather key facts and comment on meeting industry trends and indicators in 2003 and beyond. The survey response sample was drawn from MPI’s membership, the single-best collective of professional meeting planners and suppliers in the world. Association Insights, an independent market research firm, was contracted to conduct this study. FutureWatch 2003 emerged as an evolution of the Meetings Outlook Survey of 2000 and 2001, which, with 300 and 446 respondents, respectively, surveyed only U.S. planners and focused on more traditional findings such as projected number of meetings planned, geographical preferences, lead times and meeting content. In an effort to underscore sweeping changes occurring in the meeting industry, FutureWatch 2003 delivers the first-ever, highly critical supplier-side perspectives, as well as data from Canadian and European MPI member communities to ensure a more global, all-encompassing report. It features spend and revenue projections and uncovers several emerging megatrends. The survey garnered 2,470 respondents, of which 54 percent were planners and 46 percent were suppliers. Methodology: MPI sent e-mail invitations to 15,578 association members in the United States, Canada and Europe, announcing the study and requesting participation. All responses were received anonymously. Member respondents were asked to provide a range of information regarding their organizational roles, projected business, organizational challenges, uses of technology and more for 2003. Participation: For the first time, industry planners and suppliers, as well as MPI members from Canada and Europe, were invited to participate in this groundbreaking research. More than 13 percent of MPI supplier members (1,130) and 18 percent of MPI planner members (1,340) offered information regarding their businesses in 2002 and their projections for 2003. The following chart summarizes the survey participation rates for each segment in each country. ▲ I 10 I FUTUREWATCH 2003 www.themeetingprofessional.org www.themeetingprofessional.org FUTUREWATCH 2003 I 11 I