MASS MOVEMENT FEATURES ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MARGIN AND THEIR MODELED CONSEQUENCES FOR TSUNAMI GENERATION H. G. GREENE Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute & Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, Moss Landing, CA USA S. N. WARD Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA USA Abstract Many mass movement features have been mapped in the Monterey Bay region of central California. Most of these features have the appearance of being displaced by fluid flow. Therefore, fluids may have played a major role in facilitating mass movement along this tectonically active continental margin and will do so in the future. We selected three major areas of mass movement located within submarine canyons and modeled their potential to generate tsunamis. Run-up extent is dependent upon slump geometry, depth and size, and we believe that two could have produced tsunamis. The third area exhibits multiple retrogressive failures and future tsunami occurrences appear feasible. Keywords: Submarine slide, mass movement, tsunamis, fluid flow, submarine canyons 1. Introduction As more seafloor of the California offshore is imaged with high-resolution multibeam bathymetric technology, more areas of mass movement are discovered. Many of these areas lie adjacent to, or within, areas that contain hydrocarbon reservoirs at depth, or may be in areas where extension of on land aquifers crop out on or near the sea floor. Multibeam bathymetric data collected in the Santa Barbara Channel by the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) show substantial mass wasting occurring along the northern slope of the Santa Barbara Basin, immediately adjacent to faults and folds that trap hydrocarbons associated with the offshore Santa Maria petroleum province (Greene, 1976, Eichhubl et al., 2002, Greene et al., 2002). Similar types of data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey offshore of Long Beach, California (Bohannon and Gardner, 2001) show a large debris avalanche that lies near an area where onshore aquifers crop out at the shelf break (Vedder, 1987) and adjacent to hydrocarbon containing structures such as those within the Inglewood Trend and those near the Beta oil field (Parker, 1971; Vedder, 1987). In the Monterey Bay region of central California, a large multibeam bathymetric data set collected by MBARI shows a region of extensive mass movement (Greene et al., 2002). Slumps, debris flows and other submarine landslides are concentrated along canyon walls and the lower continental slope (Fig. 1). Based primarily on geomorphology, Greene et al. (2002) suggest a Quaternary age for most of the landslides imaged in the 343 344 Greene and Ward area. However, many slides appear younger, and some occurred within historic time. For example, a small landslide occurred at the head of Monterey Canyon during the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake (M6.9) with a small (~0.5 m high) tsunami reported to have entered the Moss Landing Harbor and a turbidity current reported to have traveled down the canyon axis (Greene and Hicks 1990; Schwing et al., 1990; Garfield et al., 1994). In addition, many distinct and youthful slumps occur at the base of the headward walls of Monterey Canyon, which appear to result from undercutting of the walls during debris flow or turbidity current events. (Greene et al., 2002). The upper continental slope north of Monterey Bay is heavily incised with submarine canyons and gullies (Greene and Hicks, 1990; Greene et al., 2002). Here the canyon heads of Ascension and Año Nuevo submarine canyons are collapsed and many rills, thin sediment flows and slumps exist, which are interpreted to have originated from fluid flow (Greene et al., 1999, 2002). These features are concentrated along shelf-edge faults that cut deeply into the Outer Santa Cruz Basin, a hydrocarbon reservoir that appears to be leaking along structures associated with petroleum traps (Mullins and Nagel, 1982; Nagel et al., 1986; Greene, 1990; Greene et al., 2002). Large mass movement features in the Monterey Bay region suggest that a potential for tsunami generation exists. Our intent is to model some of the larger features to determine if tsunamis could have occurred in the past. From many mapped features of mass movement in the Monterey Bay region we have selected two distinct landslides of past movement and one potential landslide to model tsunamis generation using models after Ward (2000, 2001). Simrad EM 300, 30 kHz multibeam bathymetric data collected by MBARI in 1997 were used to image and model the landslide sites indicated in figure 1. 1.1 PHYSIOGRAPHY AND TECTONIC SETTING The Monterey Bay is located along the central California coast approximately 180 km south of San Francisco (Fig. 1). The offshore Monterey Bay region extends from Point Año Nuevo in the north to Point Sur in the south and is dominated by the AscensionMonterey Canyon system. This system is comprised of Ascension, Año Nuevo, and Cabrillo canyons of the Ascension Canyon sub-system and Soquel, Monterey, and Carmel canyons of the Monterey Canyon sub-system (Greene and Hicks, 1990). The submarine canyons of the Ascension Canyon sub-system are relatively straight in contrast to Monterey Canyon, which is quite sinuous with many meanders (Fig. 1; Greene et al., 2002). The Monterey Bay region lies within an active tectonic transform boundary, within and adjacent to the right-lateral strike-slip San Andreas Fault system that separates the Pacific Plate from the North American Plate. Slight oblique convergence and slip along this fault system produces both strike-slip and thrust earthquake movement (Cockerham et al., 1990). In the offshore, dextral transcurrent movement is displayed by faults within the Palo Colorado-San Gregorio and Monterey Bay fault zones (Fig. 1). The Palo Colorado-San Gregorio fault zone cuts through the middle part of the Monterey Canyon, controls the morphology of Carmel Canyon, and offsets the heads of Tsunami Generation in Central California 345 the Ascension Canyon sub-system (Greene et al., 1999). The zone is seismically active with past recorded earthquakes offshore ranging from minor (>2 M) to moderate (6.4 M) that occurred as recently as 1926 (Richter, 1958; Coppersmith and Griggs, 1978; Gawthrop, 1978; Begnaud et al., 2000). An estimated ML of >7.3 has been calculated to be possible along this fault zone based on its length and past history (Petersen et al., 1996; Clark et al., 1999). Figure 1. MBARI EM 300 multibeam bathymetric image of the Monterey Bay area showing the submarine canyon systems and areas of mass wasting. This figure also shows the locations of faults and submarine slumps. Modified after Greene et al., 2002 and Wagner et al., 2002. The Monterey Bay Fault Zone, comprised of many en-echelon faults, extends offshore in a northwest direction from the city of Monterey to merge with the Palo Colorado San Gregorio fault zone just west of Santa Cruz (Fig. 2; Greene, 1977, 1990; Wagner et al., 2002). Three major thoroughgoing faults, Navy, Chupinas, and Seaside faults, are responsible for the formation of the Monterey Meander in Monterey Canyon and are well mapped onshore (Clarke et al., 1999; Greene 2002; Wagner et al., 2002). Minor (>2M) to moderate (6.1M) earthquakes have been reported for this fault zone (Greene, 1990; Begnaud et al., 2000) and a predicted potential of >6.0 ML is possible. 346 Greene and Ward 2. Palaeo-landslides: Variety, Size, Apparent Age, and Distribution Extensive mass wasting, including large mass movement features or landslides, mark the walls of the Ascension-Monterey Canyon system and continental slope of the Monterey Bay region (Fig. 1; Greene and Hicks, 1990; Greene et al., 2002). Within the submarine canyons over 470 km2 of combined area has been subjected to mass movement in the past. A variety of mass movement features exist, including rotational slumps, debris flows, thin sediment flows, and excavation scars and scarps that delineate many of the landslides mapped in the region (Greene et al., 2002). Sizes of these features along the California continental margin range from small (on the order of 1km2 in area) like that on the upper slope region, northwest of Ascension Canyon, to very large (the size of Monterey Bay in area and >35km3 in volume; Gutmacher and Normark, 1993) on the lower Sur slope (Sur Slide). In addition, these landslides appear to range from mature (i.e. younger sediments overlapping mass movement features) geomorphic ages to youthful, yet no dates of movement have been determined. It is suspected that much landslide activity took place during the last low-stand of sea level in the Pleistocene (ca. 18 Ka), yet this has not been thoroughly documented (Normark and Gutmacher, 1988; Greene et al., 2002). However, newly forming propagating head scarps adjacent to older landslide scars on the upper canyon wall in the Monterey Meander of Monterey Canyon, may indicate a site of incipient mass movement, particularly of retrogressive slumps within the Monterey Bay fault zone. In addition, slumps along the outside bends of the canyon’s axial meanders, near the base of the canyon head walls (Fig.1), may continue to move, perhaps suddenly. Figure 2. Illustration of tsunami generation by landslide material moving on the sea floor. The long duration of landslide sources make complex waves that can strongly concentrate in the direction of slide motion. Tsunami Generation in Central California 347 3. Landslide Tsunamis Excitation Geology clearly shows that submarine landslides have occurred in Monterey Bay. What magnitude of tsunami hazard do these landslides pose to nearby coasts? To help address this question, we employ classical linear water wave theory and model landslide sources as equivalent vertical displacements of the sea floor. In a uniform ocean of depth h, a bot vertical bottom disturbance u z (r0 ,t) evokes vector tsunami waveforms at observation point r=x xˆ +y yˆ , depth z, and time t of Komen et al. (1994), Dingemans (1997), Ward (2000, 2002). (1a) u(x, y, z, t ) = Re ∫ dk e i( k•r − ω(k)t) 4π 2 cosh(kh) sinh( k(h - z)) ˆ cosh(k(h - z)) × zˆ − ik F(k, t) sinh( kh) sinh(kh) k ik •r cosh(k(h - z)) e sinh( k(h - z)) ˆ + ∫ dk − ik sinh( k(h - z)) − G(k, t) ˆz cosh( k(h - z)) − 2 tanh(kh) tanh(kh) 4π k (1b) t iω ( k)t 0 F(k , t) = ∫ dr0 e −ik •r0 ∫ dt 0 u bot z (r0 , t 0 ) e 0 where r0 G(k , t) = ∫ dr0 e −ik •r0 u bot z (r0 , t ) r0 In equations 1a,b, wavenumber k=|k|, frequency ω(k) = gk tanh(kh) , r0=x0 xˆ +y0 yˆ , 2 kˆ =kx xˆ +ky yˆ , dk=dkxdky, dr0=dx0dy0, and g=9.8 m/s . The tsunami theory above is fully three-dimensional, depth-dependent and not restricted to long or short waves. The bot displacement function u z (r0 ,t) can take any shape, thickness, slide velocity, slide direction and time history. Most of these landslide parameters will be constrained from geological information, others from simple kinematic models. Figure 2 illustrates how seafloor slides make tsunami waves. For this figure, we evaluate (1a) and (1b) for a 10 m thick, 2 km wide block that slides for 6 km. The block starts at zero velocity, accelerates to 49 m/s then slows to a stop on a flat surface 500 m below sea level. As the slide moves, water near the ocean bottom shoves up and over the front of the block, then falls back down behind. This up-and-down dipole motion transmits to the surface, but in a low passed form in wavelength by the ocean layer. The cosh(kh) in (1a) does the filtering job. At each instant, a new dipole forms as the block moves. Simultaneously, older dipoles propagate away and disperse. Depending on the water depth and variable slide speed, the new dipoles add constructively in phase to the surface waves sometimes, and sometimes not. By the time the block stops, tsunami waves often run almost completely in the slide direction and do not resemble dipole-generated fields. Real landslides of course occur on a slope, but the tsunami generation process is not significantly different. Greene and Ward 348 The second integral in equation 1a vanishes at the surface and does not propagate away from the source. It contributes to the mechanism of figure 2, but usually the term is of little interest. Another way to write the propagating part of equation (2) is: (2) sinh(k(h - z)) ˆ zJ 0 (k r − r0 ) sinh(kh) k dk × d u( x, y, z, t ) = ∫ r 0 ∫ cosh( k(h z)) 2 cosh( kh) π 0 r0 ˆ + RJ 1 (k r − r0 ) sinh( kh) ∞ t ∫ dt 0 u bot z (r0 , t 0 ) cos[ω ( k)(t − t 0 )] 0 ˆ =(r-r )/|r-r | and the J are cylindrical Bessel functions. R 0 0 n Generalisation of equation (2) to a non-uniform depth ocean entails the calculation of a ray-path specific travel time T(ω,r,r0), and the incorporation of new geometrical spreading and shoaling factors G(r,r0) and SL(ω,r,r0) (Ward, 2001). At the sea surface (z=0), the vertical component of tsunami motion simplifies to (3) ∞ dr0 k 0 (ω ) J 0 (ωT(ω , r, r0 )) × 2πu 0 (ω )cosh[k 0 (ω )h(r0 )] r0 u surf z (r , t ) = ∫ dω ∫ 0 t G(r, r0 )S L (ω , r, r0 ) ∫ dt 0 u bot z (r0 , t 0 ) cos[ω (t − t 0 )] 0 The integration variable in equation (3) changes from wave number to frequency because the latter is conserved as waves traverse water of varying depth. The k0(ω) and u0(ω) are wave number and group velocity now specific to water of depth h(r0) over the landslide. 3.1 TSUNAMI ENERGY Linear tsunami theory provides a convenient estimate of total wave energy (ET(t)) at any time as shown in equation (4): (4) surf E T (t) = (1/ 2)ρ wg ∫ dA(r)[E z (r,t)] 2 r surf with E z (r,t) being the tsunami envelope as shown in equation (5): (5) surf { surf 2 surf E z (r,t) = [u z ( r, t)] +[H z } 2 1/ 2 (r,t)] Tsunami Generation in Central California 349 which has units of meters and incorporates both the vertical tsunami field and its Hilbert surf Transform. We compute H z (r,t) by replacing cosωt by sinωt in (3). 3.2 LANDSLIDE ENERGY Undersea landslides release gravitational potential energy in the amount (6): (6) E L = (ρs − ρw )g ∫ dA( r)∆u(r)h(r) r Here, h is water depth, ρs is the density of the slide material, and ∆u is its excavation or deposition thickness. Excavation is negative and the integral covers all sea floor where ∆u(r)≠0. EL fixes the energy budget of all landslide processes. The energy of radiated tsunami and all manner of frictional losses draw from this pool (Actually, the tsunami waves generated during landslides can be considered a frictional loss.) EL depends only on the initial and final state of the slide, whereas ET depends on its entire kinematic history. The ratio ET/EL quantifies a slide’s tsunami generation efficiency. 4. Selected Landslides for Tsunami Modeling From the many landslides mapped in the central California region we modeled youthful looking features that appear to have failed recently and features that appear to have a potential for failure in the future. In addition, we selected those landslides that are shallow and close to shore (submarine canyon failures) rather than distant and deep failures. We also selected slumps and block avalanches rather than debris and thin sediment flows, as these features remain intact during displacement. 4.1 ASCENSION CANYON LANDSLIDE Ascension Canyon landslide, an apparent slump block, is located in the upper part of Ascension canyon at a depth of ~600 m and is 1.5 km long, 370 m wide, and ~50 m thick (Fig. 3). This feature is anomalous as it is a flat-topped block that projects into, and constricts, a fairly straight canyon eroded into flat-lying marine Pliocene sandstones and mudstones of the Purisima Formation on the continental shelf north of Monterey Bay (Greene, et al., 2002). It is comprised of a steep (~40°), high (215 m) head scar, a primary and one secondary slump block and a steep near vertical toe 160 m high that extends into the canyon axis at a depth of 800 m. This slump appears to have dropped down some 300 m (from 300 m to 600 m water depth) into the axis of the canyon moving 2.4 x 107 m3 of material for 1.5 km (run-out) in a southerly direction. The total area of the slump is 4.9 x 105 km2, with an excavation area of 9.58 km2. The cause of the slump is unknown, although it lies in an area that may have experienced active fluid flow in the past. This slump has the mass to displace water in one rapid motion, but our modeling shows that it is too deep and oriented in the wrong direction to produce a tsunami of any significance. The major energy of the resultant tsunamis is directed toward the 350 Greene and Ward Monterey Peninsula some 45 km southeast of the failed wall (Fig. 4). Although our model indicates that a 2 m negative tsunami wave is initially generated, the closest landfall is directly east along the high (~10 m high) cliffs of the coast near Davenport where a 1 m high tsunami is calculated to have run-up 2.98 m, well below the crest of the cliffs. The Monterey Peninsula is estimated to have had a 0.52 m run-up and the sites at Santa Cruz and Moss Landing would have only seen a 1.34 m and 0.36 m run-up (Fig. 4). In Figures 4, 5, and 7 darker shading represents positive waves (crests) while light shading represents negative waves (troughs). Numbers in Figures 4 and 5 represent highs and lows (-) in meters at dots. Figure 3. Expanded view of Ascension Canyon slump from MBARI EM 300 multibeam bathymetric data. 4.2 TUBEWORM SLUMP (LOWER MONTEREY CANYON) Tubeworm slump, named as such because of the high concentration of Vestimentiferan tube worms located along its head scarp, is a large 2 km long by 2 km wide triangularlike excavation scar (Fig. 5) that apparently resulted from the removal of ~1.03 x 108 m3 of material that slid to the south into the axis of Monterey Canyon. No surface evidence of the landslide deposit is seen in the canyon axis and we assume it was either buried under canyon axis sediment or transported down the canyon away from the foot of the landslide scar. Therefore, we assume that the landslide material ran out to the south for 3.4 km crossing the entire width of the canyon and coming to rest along its southern wall, before being buried or transported down canyon. Tubeworm Slump has a classic landslide scar with an arcuate ~40° steep head scar and a 175m wide head block that can be seen at the base of the head wall. Based on previous geologic mapping in this area (Greene, 1977; Greene and Hicks, 1990) the slip plane or sole of the landslide appears to be the top of the Miocene Monterey Formation, a highly Tsunami Generation in Central California 351 fractured, hydrocarbon-rich, diatomaceous mudstone and chert unit, and the material that failed was primarily Pliocene marine sedimentary deposits (sandstones and mudstones) equivalent to the Purisima Formation. The slip plane was possibly lubricated by fluids migrating through the Monterey Formation. Figure 4. Ascension tsunami (left) tsunami envelope (right). Less than 0.5% of landslide energy went into this tsunami. Note bright spot near shore. These are the waves shoaling in shallow water. Our model showed that at four minutes after the failure, the calculated geometry of the tsunami was circular with the largest and strongest waves focused to the south and the next stronger field focused to the north (Fig. 5). Approximately eight minutes after the failure event the tsunamis would have reached the Monterey Peninsula with a 1 m high positive wave. A short time after eight minutes the first arrival waves at Santa Cruz would have occurred with a 2 m negative trough, resulting in a withdrawal of water at the shoreline followed by a positive wave or inundation. 4.3 MONTEREY MEANDER MASS MOVEMENT FIELD A large (>90 km2 area) mass movement field exists at the apex of the Monterey Meander and is composed of many retrogressive slumps and debris flows (Greene et al., 2002). This field lies within the Monterey Bay fault zone that is seismically active (Greene and Hicks, 1990). A distinct rugged head wall over 100 m in height and varying in slope from 14° to 27° characterises the head of the field (Fig.6). In many places along the upper part of the head wall the morphology is scalloped denoting the past occurrences of small landslides. The entire head scar area is composed of regionally flat-lying Pliocene Purisima Formation sandstones and mudstones (Greene, 1977; Greene et al., 2002). In many places this formation is deformed (fractured and folded to near vertical dips) from fault motion, and observations made from ROV dives show a 352 Greene and Ward rubble slope resulting from active headwall failures. This and the general morphology of the head scarp indicate that many small wall failures have occurred in this area. Although the suspected cause of mass wasting here is fault rupture and earthquakes, because the field lies within the seismically active Monterey Bay fault zone, we also suspect fluid flow may play a role, as fluid flow along structure (faults) and stratigraphy (bedding planes) in this area is evidenced by concentrations of chemosynthetic communities and bacterial mats (Greene et al., 1999). Figure 5. Expanded view of Tubeworm slump from MBARI EM 300 multibeam bathymetric data and tsunami modeling. Positive areas shown in dark shading, negative in light shading. Numbers represent height or depressions (-) in meters at dots. From our model, the geometry of the generated wave is elliptical with the largest and strongest waves being focused to the south, toward the Monterey Peninsula (Fig. 7). Approximately eight minutes after the failure event the tsunami would reach the Monterey Peninsula with a positive 5 m (high) wave approaching Monterey Harbor and a positive 7 m (high) wave at Moss Landing, resulting in inundation at both places. A short time after 8 minutes the first arrival waves of negative 1 m would arrive at Santa Cruz resulting in a withdrawal of water at the shoreline followed by a positive wave or inundation. Tsunami Generation in Central California 353 Figure 6. Expanded view of Monterey Meander mass wasting field showing possible incipient head scars from MBARI EM 300 multibeam bathymetric data. See Figure 1 for location. 5. Conclusions Although there are no reports of locally generated tsunamis in the Monterey Bay region, the extensive amount of mass wasting imaged in the Ascension-Monterey Canyon system suggests that locally derived tsunamis may have occurred in the past and could occur in the future. Many of these failures could be the result of fluid flow and may not need earthquakes or other stimulants to initiate failure. Continued fluid flow and canyon wall undercutting could initiate non-seismogenic tsunamis in the future. We modeled three different types (present and past) of submarine landslides to determine size and run-up that may occur if the features failed rapidly (instantaneously) and remained intact during most of the run-out. Two of the landslides, Ascension Canyon and Tubeworm slump, occurred sometime in the recent past (within the late Quaternary or historically) as their morphologies appear youthful. The incipient Monterey Meander failure lies in a seismically active area, cut by faults (Navy and Seaside faults) of the Monterey Bay Fault Zone, and has experienced extensive failures in the past. Based on estimated dimensions and volume of the incipient landslide we calculated the generation of a substantial tsunami (11m high in Monterey area, and 8m high at Moss Landing, and 2m high at Santa Cruz; Fig. 7) if a large failure took place at this locality instantaneously. A significant conclusion is that even though some landslides (i.e., Ascension Canyon landslide) appear large enough to produce a tsunami of notable size, depth of water and orientation play a major role in developing a critical size event. Our calculations indicate that although all of the past failures we modeled had the potential to produce a sizable tsunami, many were oriented in a direction that would allow substantial attenuation of energy before reaching land, and thus have little run-up impact. More 354 Greene and Ward work needs to be done in order to determine which of the landslides mapped in central California could have produced a tsunami, what areas may have potential tsunami generation, and to determine failure mechanisms. We suspect that many mapped landslides in the central California offshore can be categorised into geology, geometry, depth and distance from land for the purpose of accurately establishing tsunami prone zones. Figure 7. Monterey Meander tsunami. Note strong focusing of waves in the direction of slide motion 6. Acknowledgements This work was partially funded by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. We wish to thank Lee Murai and Holly Lopez for their assistance in preparing the figures and calculating the areas of volumes used in the modeling, Dr Ivano Aiello and Dr. Tracy Vallier for generously giving up their time and agreeing to review the paper at short notice. Tsunami Generation in Central California 355 7. 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