Data, Demand, and Demographics:
A Symposium on Housing Finance
Co-presented by the Urban Institute and CoreLogic
November 20, 2015CoreLogic
Strengthening Economic Prosperity in the U.S.
Housing in the Final Year of the Obama Administration
 Jason Furman, chairman, Council of Economic Advisers, White House
 Introduction by: Sarah Rosen Wartell, president, Urban Institute
Join The Conversation
#HousingData
Land Use Regulation and Economic Rents
Jason Furman
Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers
The Urban Institute
November 20, 2015
3
The Gap Between House Prices and Construction Costs Has Grown Over
Time, Even Excluding the Mid-2000s Bubble
Real Construction Costs and House Prices Over Time
Index, 1980=100
250
2013
220
Real House Prices
190
160
130
Real Construction Costs
100
70
1980
Source: Gyourko and Molloy (2015)
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
4
Some of the Largest Cities With Restrictive Land Use Regulations Have
Persistently High House Prices Relative to Construction Costs
Ratio of House Prices to Construction Costs: 1989 vs. 1999
Share of a City's Units Valued Above 140% of Construction Costs in 1989
1.0
Anaheim
Los Angeles
Norfolk
New York
0.8
Raleigh
San
Fran.
San Diego
Albuquerque
Nashville Phoenix
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Greensboro
Philadelphia
Jacksonville
San Antonio
Denver
Dallas
Sacramento
New Orleans
Austin
Seattle
Baltimore Ft. Worth
Tampa
Houston
Tucson
Little Rock
El Paso
Tulsa Oklahoma City
Las Vegas
Indianapolis
Minneapolis Chicago
Omaha
Columbus Wichita
Toledo
MIlwaukee
Kansas City Detroit
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Share of a City's Units Valued Above 140% of Construction Costs in 1999
Source: Glaeser and Gyourko (2003)
5
Strictness in Land Use Regulations is Associated with Reduced Housing
Affordability Across U.S. Metro Areas
Zoning and Affordability in Select Metro Areas
NAR Housing Affordability Index in 2013
350
300
St. Louis
250
200
Kansas City
Philadelphia, PA
Providence, RI
150
Boston, MA
100
50
0
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Wharton Residential Land Use Regulatory Index
(Higher Values=More Regulation)
2
Source: National Association of Realtors, Housing Affordability Index (2013); Wharton Residential Land Use Regulatory Index (Gyourko, Saiz, and Summers, 2008); CEA Calculations.
6
Unlike Single-Family, Multifamily Housing Starts Have Returned to PreRecession Levels, but Their Long-Run Steady State may be Higher
Single and Multifamily Housing Starts: 2000 to 2015
Thousands of Units, SAAR
2,100
1,800
1,500
Single-Family
Starts
1,200
900
600
Oct-15
Multi-family
Starts
300
0
2000
Source: Census
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
7
Migration Rates in the United States Have Been Declining Irrespective of
Distance
Migration Rates by Distance
Migration Rate
0.045
Migration Rate
0.18
2013
Intra-county
(right axis)
0.040
0.035
Inter-county,
same state
(left axis)
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.030
0.1
Inter-state
(left axis)
0.025
0.020
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.015
0.02
0.010
0
1948 1955 1962 1969 1976 1983 1990 1997 2004 2011
Source: Molloy, Smith, and Wozniak (2014)
8
Labor Demand Increases in High Regulation Cities Lead to Smaller Increases in
Housing Stock, Greater House Price Appreciation, and Lower Employment Growth
than in Low Regulation Cities
Effects of One-Percent Higher Labor Demand
Percent Change
1.2
Low Regulations
1.0
High Regulations
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Housing Stock
Source: Saks (2008); CEA Calculations.
House Prices
Long-Run Employment
9
States With a Less Constrained Supply of Housing Experienced a More
Consistent and Substantial Pace of Cross-State Income Convergence
Speed of Income Covergence Across States by Housing Supply
Percent of Income Gap Closed Each Year
2.8
2.4
Less Constrained
Supply
2.0
More Constrained
Supply
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
1960-69
Source: Ganong and Shoag (2015); CEA Calculations
1970-79
1980-89
1990-99
2000-10
10
Land Use Regulation and Economic Rents
Jason Furman
Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers
The Urban Institute
November 20, 2015
11
Multifamily & Single Family Market Growth
 Frank Nothaft, senior vice president, chief economist, CoreLogic
 Introduction by: Faith Schwartz, senior vice president, Government Affairs,
CoreLogic
Join The Conversation
#HousingData
Multifamily & Single-Family Market
Outlook
Data, Demand, and Demographics:
A Symposium on Housing Finance
Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist
November 20, 2015
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
U.S. Housing Market Forecast
 Market in 2016 will have five features:
 Higher interest rates (short ↑ 1%, long ↑ ½%)
 Strong household formations (>1¼ million)
 Home prices up (4% to 5%)
 Rental robust: vacancy low, rents up
 Loan manufacture remains high quality
 Home sales: 2016 expected to be best since 2007
 Distressed sales drop nationally, high in select metros
 Originations: More SF Purchase, less Refi; More MF
 SF # least since 1997; $ similar to 2014
14
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U.S. Macroeconomic Backdrop is Positive
Gross Domestic Product YOY Percent Change
Unemployment Rate
Gross Domestic Product YOY Change
Unemployment Rate
6%
10
9
Percent Change
4%
8
2%
7
0%
6
Oct.
5.0%
5
-2%
4
-4%
2000Q1 2002Q3 2005Q1 2007Q3 2010Q1 2012Q3 2015Q1
3
Jan 2000
Gross Domestic Product, (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR) for United States
Consumer Price Index YOY Percent Change
Aug 2002
Mar 2005
Oct 2007
May 2010 Dec 2012
Jul 2015
Unemployment rate: Total, (%, SA) for United States
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer Price Index YOY Percent Change
150
6%
5%
125
Oct.
98
4%
3%
100
2%
75
1%
50
0%
25
-1%
-2%
Jan
2000
Mar
2002
May
2004
All items
Jul
2006
Sep
2008
Nov
2010
Jan
2013
Mar
2015
0
Jan
2000
Mar
2002
May
2004
Jul 2006
Sep
2008
Nov
2010
Jan
2013
Mar
2015
All items less food and energy
Consumer Confidence Index
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board, National Bureau of Economic Research
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Federal Funds Expected to Rise
Federal Funds Target (interest rate, in percent)
4.5
4.0
3.5
Minutes September 17, 2015
September 17, 2015 Median
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
September 2015
Median
2015
2016
2017
2018
0.375
1.375
2.625
3.375
Longer Run
3.50
Source: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting on September 17, 2015. In the plot each circle indicates the value (rounded to
the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual FOMC participant’s judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds
rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.
16
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Long-term Rates Expected To Rise
Interest Rate on 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages and 10-Year Constant Maturity Treasury (percent)
7%
QE1
Operation
Twist
QE2
Forecast
QE3
6%
Dec.
2016:
5%
30-Year FRM
4.5%
4%
3%
2.7%
2%
10-Year Treasury
1%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15),
IHS Global Insight November 2015 projection.
17
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Large Demographic Tailwind Has Arrived
Number of People
in 2014 (Millions)
Largest Age Cohort
4.6
Average Age First-time
Homebuyer
4.4
4.2
Average Age Repeat
Homebuyer
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Age Cohort
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population as of July 1, 2014
18
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Household Formation Accelerated in 2015
Annual Household Growth (Net Change, in Millions)
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.5
1.3
0.9
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey, net change in number
of households, January-to-September compared with same period in prior year.
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Components of the U.S. Rental Stock
Rental Stock
One-family 35%
Multifamily 42%
Manufactured
Housing 5%
2- to 4-family 18%
20 Table S2504
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey,
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Apartment Markets Are Tightening in Most Metros
Market Tightness Index
100
90
Market Tighter
80
70
60
Market
Unchanged
50
40
30
20
Market Looser
10
0
Jul-99
Jul-01
Jul-03
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
Jul-13
Jul-15
Survey question for Market Tightness Index:
How are apartment market conditions in the local markets that you watch? “Tight” markets are those with low vacancies and
high rent increases. Conditions obviously vary greatly from place to place, but on balance, apartment market conditions in your
markets today are: 1) Tighter than three months ago 2) Looser than three months ago 3) About unchanged from three months
ago 4) Don’t know or not applicable.
Source: National Multifamily Housing Council (Last Update: Survey conducted October 13-20, 2015)
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
New Rental Construction in 2015 Is Highest Since 1986
Multifamily Housing Starts (Thousands of Units, Annualized)
Starts For Rent
500
Multifamily Starts
500
450
450
Multifamily Starts (2+)
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
Starts For Rent (2+)
100
100
50
50
0
1986
0
1991
1996
Note: Gray bars indicate recessions.
Sources: Census Bureau and National Bureau of Economic Research
2000
2005
2010
2015
Office of the Chief Economist
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
22
New Apartment Absorption in 2014-2015
Was Fastest of the Past Decade
Absorption Rate (Percent)
90
83%
85
80
Apartments Rented within
6 months after completion
(completions through 2014:Q4)
75
70
65
60
64%
Apartments Rented within
3 months after completion
(completions through 2015:Q2)
55
50
45
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Source: Census Bureau (Survey of Market Absorption)
23
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Change in Number of Single-Family Detached Rental Stock 2006 - 2013
Single-Family Detached Rental Stock
Grew by 3 Million in U.S., 2006–2013
Percent Change in Single-Family Detached Rental Stock 2006 - 2013
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 50 largest metropolitan rental markets;
24
size of bubble represents the size of the single-family rental detached
stock.
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 10
Vacancy Rates Are Lowest on Single-Family Homes
Rental Vacancy Rate (2015 Second Quarter)
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
One-family Detached One-family Attached
3-Bedroom
2-Bedroom
Source: CoreLogic RentalTrends (average April-June 2015), U.S. Census
Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey (2015Q2)
5- to 9-Unit
10-or-more
Apartments
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Single-family Rent Growth Strong, Especially in West
Rent Growth for 3-Bedroom Detached Houses, August 2014 to August 2015
12%
9%
6%
3%
0%
-3%
Atlanta
Rent 1086
Chicago
1667
Dallas
Detroit
1401
1074
Houston
Los
Angeles
Miami
New
York
1333
2468 1824 2266
Philadelphia Phoenix
1240
1339
San
Francisco
4123
Seattle Washington
DC
2083
1809
Source: CoreLogic Rental Trends, metropolitan area median rent August 2015
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 11
Home Sales: Up 5% in 2015, Best since 2007
Non-Distressed Resale up every year since 2011
Home Sales (millions)
10
9
8
Forecast
7
New
Short
REO
6
5
4
Resale
3
2
1
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
27
Source: CoreLogic REAS MarketTrends through August 2015, projected
after.
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
U.S. Home Prices Projected to Rise 5% in 2016
Projected to reach prior peak by mid-2017 (but still 18% below 2006 peak in real $)
CoreLogic Home Price IndexTM (January 2000 = 100)
220
Forecast
200
7%
180
37%
160
140
120
100
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index including distressed sales, January 2000 = 100
(November 3, 2015 release) and CoreLogic REAS HPI Forecasts
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
28
For-Sale Home Inventory Has Been Very Low Since 2012
Homes-For-Sale Inventory as a Percent of Households
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
Sources: National Association of Realtors, U.S. Census Bureau (New Residential Sales and Housing Vacancy Survey).
Note: Existing home inventory excludes Condo & Co-op Inventory before 1999.
29
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Months’ Supply, Days on Market, Home-Price Growth
Metro Area
U.S. 4.8 months
San Jose, CA
1.1
Denver, CO
Days
On
Market
Home
Price
Gain
10
14.2%
5
10.9%
44
9.9%
48
8.4%
21
6.6%
29
4.0%
29
2.6%
84
4.1%
89
1.0%
83
4.0%
102
2.5%
1.22
Dallas, TX
2.94
Seattle, WA
2.99
Los Angeles, CA
3.06
Minneapolis, MN
3.07
Chicago, IL
4.56
Orlando, FL
5.34
Cleveland, OH
7.02
Philadelphia, PA
8.01
Providence, RI
8.58
0
2
4
6
8
10
Number of Months
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (percent change, May
2014 to May 2015) and CoreLogic Listing data for May 2015
(median Days on Market for sold properties).
30
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Underwriting Remains Cautious
Housing Credit IndexTM for Purchase (2000Q1=100)
HCITM Factors
160
Credit Score
140
Loan-to-Value
Debt-to-Income
120
Broker Share
100
Documentation (Full/Low/No)
Adjustable-Rate Mortgage
80
60
40
2015Q2
27
20
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Source: CoreLogic TrueStandings, 2015Q2 based on partial data; 2000Q1 = 100.
Bars represent 2001 and 2008-2009 recessions.
31
2009
2011
2013
2015
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Underwriting Remains Cautious
Purchase Orig.
2000-2001 (Blue)
April 2015 (Red)
Source: CoreLogic TrueStandings, April 2015 purchase-money originations compared with 2000 and 2001
32
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Single-family Originations: More Purchase,
Less Refinance in 2016
Single-family Mortgage Originations (Billions of U.S. dollars)
$2,500
$2,000
----Forecast---$1,500
Refinance
$1,000
Purchase
$500
$0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
33
Multifamily Mortgage Originations Projected Up
$210
$225
$175
$175
$150
$115
$144
$70
$56
$101
$108
$50
$50
$73
$75
$83
$100
$104
$125
$133
$134
$150
$185
$200
$225
Forecast
Multifamily Mortgage Originations (Billions of Dollars)
$25
$0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Sources: FFIEC (HMDA), OTS Thrift Financial Report, ACLI Investment Bulletin,
MBA Commercial Mortgage Banker Origination Survey, CoreLogic.
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 10
U.S. Housing Market Forecast
 Market in 2016 will have five features:
 Higher interest rates (short ↑ 1%, long ↑ ½%)
 Strong household formations (>1¼ million)
 Home prices up (4% to 5%)
 Rental robust: vacancy low, rents up
 Loan manufacture remains high quality
 Home sales: 2016 expected to be best since 2007
 Distressed sales drop nationally, high in select metros
 Originations: More SF Purchase, less Refi; More MF
 SF # least since 1997; $ similar to 2014
35
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Where to find more information
Look for regular updates to our housing forecast, commentary and
data at
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/research.aspx
Twitter: @CoreLogicEcon @DrFrankNothaft
The views, opinions, forecasts and estimates herein are those of the CoreLogic Office of the Chief
Economist, are subject to change without notice and do not necessarily reflect the position of
CoreLogic or its management. The Office of the Chief Economist makes every effort to provide
accurate and reliable information, however, it does not guarantee accuracy, completeness, timeliness
or suitability for any particular purpose.
CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
36
©2015 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Panel One: Consumer Financial Health and Well-Being
 Janneke Ratcliffe, assistant director, financial education, Consumer Financial
Protection Bureau
 Bill Bynum, CEO, Hope Enterprise Corporation/Hope Credit Union and Chair,
Consumer Advisory Board, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
 Rachel Schneider, senior vice president, Center for Financial Services
Innovation
 Moderated By: Ellen Seidman, senior fellow, Urban Institute
Join The Conversation
#HousingData
I am an image/content
placeholder.
How are you?
Symposium on Housing Finance
Consumer Financial Health and Well-Being
Rachel Schneider
www. USfinancialdiaries.org | ©, 2011
Owners = 48%
Renters = 77%
Housing cost to income > 30%
80% homeowners/84% of Renters
US Financial Diaries
Principal Investigators
• Jonathan Morduch, Professor of Public Policy and Economics,
New York University
• Rachel Schneider, Senior Vice President, Center for Financial
Services innovation
www. USfinancialdiaries.org | ©, 2011
Five spikes/dips per year on average
US Financial Diaries
2.7 Spikes
+ 25%
Average
Income
- 25%
2.7 Dips
Spikes and dips
US Financial Diaries
Income Spikes or Dips
Per Household per Year
3.6
3.4
2.6
Poor
2.5
2.2
Near Poor
Spikes
2.1
Moderate Income
Dips
2.0
2.0
Middle Income
Usually More than One Cause
PRELIMINARY DATA – DO NOT CITE
www. USfinancialdiaries.org | ©, 2011
Never miss a bill
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
19%
www. USfinancialdiaries.org | ©, 2011
Miss same bill(s)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
41%
www. USfinancialdiaries.org | ©, 2011
Rotate missed bills
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
39%
www. USfinancialdiaries.org | ©, 2011
Download the report: http://bit.ly/ConsumerFinHealth
Connect with us
cfsinnovation.com
@cfsinnovation
@USFDstudy
#finhealth
Linked In: Center for Financial Services
Innovation
Panel Two: Housing, Urbanization & Demographics
 Shekar Narasimhan, managing partner, Beekman Advisors
 Rolf Pendall, director, Metropolitan Housing and Communities Policy Center,
Urban Institute
 Joe Nery, president-elect, National Association of Hispanic Real Estate
Professionals; national board member, treasurer and attorney, Nery &
Richardson
 Lynn Fisher, vice president for research and economics, Mortgage Bankers
Association
 Moderated By: Laurie Goodman, director, Housing Finance Policy Center, Urban
Institute
Join The Conversation
#HousingData
Looking for a new normal:
Affordability and stability in U.S.
housing markets
Rolf Pendall, Ph.D.
Director, Metropolitan Housing &
Communities Policy Center
November 20, 2015
53
Accelerating Rental Demand;
Ownership, Rental Growth Both Led by Hispanics
Households (millions)
90
80
Other race
70
Hispanic
60
Black
50
White
40
30
20
10
Renters
2030(p)
2020(p)
2010
2000
1990
2030(p)
2020(p)
2010
2000
1990
0
Owners
Source: U.S. Census 1990-2010, Urban Institute Projections (p). Other race includes Asians and Pacific Islanders,
American Indians and Alaska Natives, people of other races, and people of two or more races.
54
Renter cost burdens have increased, especially for
African Americans and Hispanics
Percent of renters paying
over 30 percent of income
for housing and utilities
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
2012
0%
2000
10%
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Total
Source: U.S. Census, 2000; American Community Survey, 2012; microdata analyzed by Urban Institute. Whites,
Blacks, and Asians include only non-Hispanics. Asians include Pacific Islanders. Total includes all these groups plus
American Indians, Alaska Natives, people of other races, and multi-racial individuals.
Source: HMDA
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
Owner-occupied home purchase loan
originations (millions)
55
Mortgage credit is much tighter than in 2001
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
White
2.0
Hispanic
1.5
Black
1.0
Asian
0.5
0.0
56
High and low scenarios: What will be the
“new normal” for homeownership?
80%
White
Homeownership rate,
35- to 44-year-olds
70%
60%
Other
50%
Hispanic
40%
Black
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2010
Source: U.S. Census 1990-2010, Urban Institute projections (p).
2020(p)
2030(p)
57
Actions for an affordable and secure “new normal”
Rental housing supply and affordability
 Encourage apartment construction in fast-growth metro areas,
especially in high-opportunity suburbs
 Entitle extremely low income renters to housing assistance, and
preserve affordability of as much subsidized stock as possible
Improve access to homeownership
 Prepare renters for buying
 Assure lender commitments by reforms and enforcement in
underwriting, affordability, and anti-discrimination
Assure financial health
 Work over the life course to link housing and asset building
58
For more information:
Laurie Goodman, Rolf Pendall, & Jun Zhu, Headship and
Homeownership: What Does the Future Hold? (Urban
Institute, 6/2015)
Laurie Goodman et al., Housing Finance at a Glance: A Monthly
Chartbook (Urban Institute, latest 10/20/2015)
Rolf Pendall: rpendall@urban.org
Laurie Goodman: lgoodman@urban.org
Housing Demand:
Demographics and the Numbers behind the Coming
Multi-Million Increase in Households
November 2015
Lynn Fisher, Vice President, Research & Economics
White paper available at mba.org/research
HOUSEHOLD DEMAND – Changing Demographics
and Economy Plus Trends
Millions
Projected Changes in Households,
by Age 2014-2024
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Using Predicted
Headship Rates
-3
18-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
Non-Hisp. White
Source: Census, IPUMS CPS and MBA
45-49
Black
50-54
Asian
55-59
60-64
Other
65-70
Hispanic
70-75
75-80
80+
1990 - Jan
1990 - Aug
1991 - Mar
1991 - Oct
1992 - May
1992 - Dec
1993 - Jul
1994 - Feb
1994 - Sep
1995 - Apr
1995 - Nov
1996 - Jun
1997 - Jan
1997 - Aug
1998 - Mar
1998 - Oct
1999 - May
1999 - Dec
2000 - Jul
2001 - Feb
2001 - Sep
2002 - Apr
2002 - Nov
2003 - Jun
2004 - Jan
2004 - Aug
2005 - Mar
2005 - Oct
2006 - May
2006 - Dec
2007 - Jul
2008 - Feb
2008 - Sep
2009 - Apr
2009 - Nov
2010 - Jun
2011 - Jan
2011 - Aug
2012 - Mar
2012 - Oct
2013 - May
2013 - Dec
2014 - Jul
2015 - Feb
2015 - Sep
Unemployment Rate
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
•
Source: BLS
Growing Older
1,200,000
Projected Changes in Hispanic Population, by Age 2014 - 2024
80%
70%
1,000,000
60%
800,000
50%
600,000
40%
30%
400,000
20%
200,000
10%
0
0%
18-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
Change in Hispanic Population (left axis)
Source: IPUMS CPS and MBA
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-70
70-75
75-80
2014 Homeownership Rate (right axis)
80+
Multifamily/Single-family Split Relatively Stable
Cohort Structure/Tenure Share
39%
35%
37%
21%
19%
4%
5%
13%
4%
17%
5%
6%
11%
16%
15%
16%
17%
5%
5%
7%
9%
8%
7%
70%
72%
12%
14%
15%
7%
9%
6%
5%
71%
73%
7%
18%
5%
16%
22%
62%
40%
22%
44%
64%
65%
69%
54%
36%
1994 2004 2014
Age 25-34
1994 2004 2014
Age 35-44
SF Own
Source: IPUMS CPS and MBA
1994 2004 2014
SF Rent
Age 45-54
MF Own
MF Rent
1994 2004 2014
Age 55+
Forecast Summary
Millions
Homeowner and Renter Households
160
Homeowership rate:
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Homeowners
Source: IPUMS CPS, MBA
Renters
64.8 66.5
Contact Information & MBA Resources
Lynn Fisher
Vice President
Research & Economics
lfisher@mba.org
(202) 557-2739
Mortgage Bankers Association
1919 M Street NW, 5th Floor
Washington, DC 20036
MBA research page:
www.mba.org/research
Research Institute for Housing America:
http://www.housingamerica.org
MBA Newslink:
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLink
Rental Housing: the affordability crisis
November 20, 2015
Most of the Recent Increase in Rental
Supply Has Come from Single-Family Homes
Change in Occupied Rental Units, 2006–12 (Millions)
3.5
Share of Increase in 2006–12 (Percent)
3.18
5% 2%
3.0
2.5
2.0
32%
1.64
1.5
61%
1.0
0.5
0.28
0.10
0.0
Single Family
Multifamily with 5 or More Units
Single Family
Multifamily Multifamily
with 5 or with 2–4 Units
More Units
Other
Multifamily with 2–4 Units
Other
Note: Other units include mobile homes, trailers, boats, recreational vehicles, and vans.
Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, The State of the Nation’s Housing, 2014, www.jchs.harvard.edu. All rights reserved.
Page : 67
Declining Incomes and Rising Rents
Continue to Erode Affordability
2012 Dollars
38
Income (Thousands)
Rent (2012 dollars)
885
37
855
36
825
35
795
34
765
33
735
32
705
1986 1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998 2000
Median Renter Income
2002
2004
2006
2008 2010
2012
Median Gross Rent
Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America’s Rental Housing, 2013, www.jchs.harvard.edu. All rights reserved.
Page : 68
More than Two Million Assisted Rentals Are
at Risk of Loss from the Affordable Stock
350
Units with Expiring Affordability Periods (Thousands)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Project-Based Assistance
Low Income Housing Tax Credit
Other
Notes: Other units include those with HOME Rental Assistance, FHA insurance, Section 202 Direct Loans, USDA Section 515 Rural Rental
Housing Loans, USDA Section 538 Guaranteed Rural Rental Housing Program, and State Housing Finance Agency Funded Section 236.
Data include properties with active subsidies as of May 16, 2014.
Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, The State of the Nation’s Housing, 2014, www.jchs.harvard.edu. All rights reserved.
Page : 69
Therefore What?
Supply:
·
Cannot build workforce without subsidy due to cost in almost all
markets. Basically, need to rent to workforce under $1/ft and building
costs are $2.50-5/ft. Plus increasing demand and significant loss of
currently subsidized units on horizon and all the “easy” land for
building is gone
Demand:
·
Flexible, portable housing vouchers with different terms (some
transitional like 6 months all the way to 3 years)
Capital:
·
Plenty of capital-debt and equity available for multifamily but not
at the right cost for affordable. Expand tax-exempt bonds using 80/20
example to more targeted 60-20-20 bonds with incentives for States to
use their allocations for preservation w/rehab
Joe Nery
2015 President Elect
Housing, Urbanization & Demographics
November 20, 2015
www.nahrep.org
Hispanic Population & Household Formation Trends
Since 1970, the Hispanic
population has grown 592%.
By comparison, the U.S.
population overall has
grown 56% over the same
period.
Income & Purchase Power
Hispanics experienced increases in
overall income with 57% of Hispanic
households earning over $40,000,
41% earning over $50,000, and 13%
earning over $100,000.
DeNavas-Walt, Carmen and Bernadette D. Proctor. Income and Poverty
in the United States: 2013. United States Census Bureau: September
2014.
Consumer Attitudes & Preferences
•
Most Hispanics (58%) say they expect their
personal financial situation to improve, despite
the face that only a third of them say the
economy is on the right track.
•
Nearly half of all Hispanics (48%) say this is a
good time to buy a home.
2014 Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
Hispanic Homebuyer Nuances
General Characteristics
Other Common Characteristics
• Full Spectrum of Borrowers
• 70% are 1st Time Buyers
• Growing Income – Lower
Wealth
• Multiple Co-Borrowers
• Thin Credit Files
• Self- Employed
• Seasonal Work, such as
Construction Jobs
• Non-Traditional Income Sources
• Non-Permanent Residency
• Multi-Generational Families
• Cultural - Language
Large Obstacles
 Affordable Housing Inventory
 Mortgage Qualifications
 Down Payments
Joe Nery
2015 President Elect
Housing, Urbanization & Demographics
November 20, 2015
www.nahrep.org
The Political Realities of Banking & Housing Policy
 Dave Stevens, president and CEO, Mortgage Bankers Association
 Tim Pawlenty, president and CEO, Financial Services Roundtable
 John Dalton, president, Housing Policy Council
 Moderated by: Sarah Rosen Wartell, president, Urban Institute
Join The Conversation
#HousingData
Panel Three: Single Family Financing and Credit Accessibility:
Is the Status Quo Alright?
 Bob Ryan, special advisor to the director, Federal Housing Finance Agency
 Richard Green, senior advisor for housing finance in policy development and
research, US Department of Housing and Urban Development
 Julia Gordon, executive vice president, National Community Stabilization Trust
 Larry Platt, partner, K&L Gates
 Moderated By: Faith Schwartz, senior vice president,
CoreLogic
Join The Conversation
#HousingData
government affairs,
DATA, DEMAND, AND DEMOGRAPHICS
Co-hosted by Urban Institute and CoreLogic
November 20, 2015
© Copyright 2013 by K&L Gates LLP. All rights reserved.
Laurence E. Platt
K&L Gates LLP
1601 K Street, NW
Washington, DC 20006-1600
202.778.9034
larry.platt@klgates.com
www.klgates.com
blog: www.consumerfinancialserviceswatch.com
FALSE CLAIMS ACT FHA CASES AND
SETTLEMENTS
Case or Defendant
Name
Date Filed or
Settled
Jurisdiction / U.S.
Attorney
Status
Bank
Bank
10/06/2015 S.D.N.Y.
06/01/2015 N.D. Ga.
Settled - $85 million
Settled - $212.5 million
Bank
02/25/2015 D. Colo.
Settled - $123.5 million
Bank
Bank
Settled - $800 million
Settled - $200 million
Bank
Bank
Non-Bank
Bank
Bank
08/20/2014 E.D.N.Y.
06/30/2014 N.D. Ohio; E.D.
Mich.
06/17/2014 D.D.C.
02/04/2014 S.D.N.Y.
04/04/2013 S.D.N.Y.
03/12/2012 E.D.N.Y.
02/24/2012 S.D.N.Y.
Bank
02/15/2012 S.D.N.Y.
Settled - $158.3 million
Bank
05/03/2011 S.D.N.Y.
Settled - $202.3 million
klgates.com
Settled - $418 million
Settled - $614 million
Settled - $36.3 million
Settled - $1 billion
Settled - $132.8 million
82
CFPB SETTLEMENTS
Company*
Bank
Bank
CFPB
CFPB
Restitution Penalty
4/9/2014
727 M
20 M
9/19/2013
309 M
20 M
Date
CFPB
Total
747 M
329 M
6/19/2014
225 M
3.5 M
228.5 M
PC
Bank
Bank
Bank
Bank
9/24/2012
7/18/2012
12/19/2013
1/29/2014
10/1/2012
12/20/2013
5/12/2015
12/23/2013
4/21/2015
9/25/2014
6/17/2014
12/17/2014
9/29/2014
12/23/2013
1/22/2015
12/10/2013
200 M
140 M
125 M
109 M
85 M
80 M
70 M
59.5 M
48 M
47.9 M
50 M
50 M
27.5 M
35 M
10.8 M
34.1 M
7M
25 M
0M
0M
14.1 M
18 M
0M
9.6 M
15 M
5M
0M
0M
10 M
0M
24 M
0M
207 M
165 M
125 M
109 M
99.1 M
98 M
70 M
69.1 M
63 M
52.9 M
50 M
50 M
37.5 M
35 M
34.8 M
34.1 M
Bank
5/19/2015
15 M
10 M
25 M
FSC
MC
MC
7/14/2015
8/12/2014
6/4/2015
24 M
14.8 M
18 M
0M
6M
2M
24 M
20.8 M
20 M
Bank
Bank
Bank
MC
MC
FSC
Bank
PC
FSC
MC
Bank
Bank
Product
Alleged Violation
Cards
Cards
Deceptively marketed add on products
Deceptively marketed add on products
Deceptively marketed add on products;
Cards
discrimination
Cards
Deceptively marketed add on products
Cards
Deceptively marketed add on products
Mortgages Mortgage servicing violations
Mortgages Kickbacks [on appeal]
Cards
Deceptively marketed add on products
Auto Loans Discriminatory lending
Mobile-phone Unauthorized charges ("cramming")
Cards
Deceptively marketed add on products
Mortgages In-process loan mods, short sale delays, Speedpay
Cards
Deceptively marketed add on products
Mortgages Mortgage servicing violations
Mobile-phone Unauthorized charges ("cramming")
Mortgages Mortgage servicing violations
Mortgages Discriminatory lending
Mortgages Kickbacks
Cards
Deceptively marketed as interest free
Deceptive ads, signed up without permission,
Online Credit
mishandled billing disputes
Auto Loans Discrimination
Mortgages Deceptively marketed interest rates, etc
Mortgages LO Compensation
*MC=Mortgage Company || *FSC=Financial Services Company || *PC=Phone Company
klgates.com
83
Data, Demand, and Demographics:
A Symposium on Housing Finance
Thank you for joining us!
Co-presented by the Urban Institute and CoreLogic