Unit 2: Index Numbers

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Unit 2: Index Numbers
Index Number
Index numbers are statistical devices designed to measrure the relative changes in the level of
phenomenon with respect to time, geographical location or other characteristics such as income,
profession etc
Price Relative
Price relative is the price in current year (p 1) expressed in the percentage of the price in the base year
(p0)
π‘ƒπ‘Ÿπ‘–π‘π‘’ π‘…π‘’π‘™π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘£π‘’ (𝑃) =
𝑝1
× 100
𝑝0
Quantity Relative
It is the ratio of quantity of a commodity in the current year (q1) expressed as percentage of quantity in
the base year (q0) and is given as
π‘„π‘’π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘π‘–π‘‘π‘¦ π‘…π‘’π‘™π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘£π‘’ (𝑄) =
π‘ž1
× 100
π‘ž0
Value Relative
It is the ration of value of commodity in the current year (v1) as expressed as percentage of the value in
base year (v0) and is given as:
π‘‰π‘Žπ‘™π‘’π‘’ π‘…π‘’π‘™π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘£π‘’ (𝑉) =
𝑣1
𝑝1 π‘ž1
× 100 =
× 100
𝑣0
𝑝0 π‘ž0
Characteristics of Index Numbers
1.
2.
3.
4.
Index numbers are specialized type of averages.
They are expressed in ratios but for comparison purposes are expressed as a percentage.
Index numbers study the effect of factors that cannot be measured directly.
Index numbers facilitate the comparison
Uses of Index Numbers
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Index numbers simplifies the data thus facilitates comparative study.]
Index numbers are used in studying trends and tendencies.
Index numbers help in measuring purchasing power of money and also used for deflation.
It measures change in cost of living of different groups of people.
Index numbers are used by the government to frame suitable policies regarding fixation of bank
rates, allowances to employees, license to new firms, imports, exports, taxation.
Limitations of Index Numbers
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Index numbers are based on sample data, it is only an approximate indicator.
There is a chance of error introduced at each stage of the construction of index numbers.
While constructing index numbers, quality of product is not taken into consideration.
Like other statistical techniques, index numbers can be misused to get desired conclusions.
As customs, tradition and habits fo people vary from time to ti me, it is difficult to assign proper
weights to various items.
6. Many formulae are used in construction of index numbers and different formulae give different
answers.
Steps in Construction of Index Numbers
1. Purpose of the Index Number: Before constructing an index number, it should be decided the
purpose for which it is needed. An index number constructed for one category or purpose
cannot be used for others. A cost of living index of working classes cannot be used for farmers
because the items entering into their consumption will be different.
2. Selection of the Base Period: The selection of the base period is the most important step in the
construction of an index number. It is a period against which comparisons are made. The base
period should be economically stable. The base period should not be too distant from the
current period.
a) If the period of comparison is kept fixed of current years, it is called fixed-base period.
b) If the relative changes in the level of phenomenon for any period are compared with that of
the immediate preceding period, it is called chain-base period.
3. Selection of Commodities: Commodities to be selected depend upon the purpose or objective of
the index number to be constructed. But the number of commodities should neither be too
large nor too small. Moreover, commodities to be selected must be broadly representative of
the group of commodities. They should also be comparable in the sense that standard or graded
items should be taken.
4. Selection of Prices: The next step is to select the prices of these commodities. For this purpose,
care should be taken to select prices from representative persons, places or journals or other
sources. But they must be reliable.
5. Selection of an Average: Since index numbers are averages, the problem is how to select an
appropriate average. The two important and common averages are the arithmetic mean and
geometric mean. The arithmetic mean is the simpler of the two. But geometric mean is more
accurate. However, the average prices should be reduced to price relatives (percentages) either
on the basis of the fixed base method or the chain base method.
6. Selection of Weights: While constructing an index number due weightage or importance should
be given to the various commodities. Commodities which are more important in the
consumption of consumers should be given higher weightage than other commodities.
7. Selection of Formula: A number of formulas have been devised to construct an index number.
But the selection of an appropriate formula depends upon the availability of data and purpose
of the index number. No single formula may be used for all types of index numbers.
Price Index Numbers (Unweighted)
Simple Aggregative Method
𝑃01 =
∑ 𝑝1
× 100
∑ 𝑝0
Simple Unweighted Arithmetic Mean
𝑃01 =
∑𝑃
𝑛
Unweighted Simple Geometric Mean
𝑃01 = π΄π‘›π‘‘π‘–π‘™π‘œπ‘” (
∑ π‘™π‘œπ‘”π‘ƒ
)
𝑛
Price Index Numbers (Weighted)
Laspeyre’s Price Index
In Laspeyre’s method base year quantities (q0) are used as weight.
𝐿
𝑃01
=
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0
× 100
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0
Paasche’s Price Index
In Paasche’s method, current year quantities (q1) are used as weight.
𝑃
𝑃01
=
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
× 100
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1
Marshall-Edgeworth Price Index
In this method, base year and current year quantities are used to find the index numbers. Weights
assigned are the average of the base year and current year quantities.
𝑀𝐸
𝑃01
=
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 + ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
× 100
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 + ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1
Dorbish – Bowley’s Price Index
It is the AM of Laspeyre’s and Paasche’s index numbers. It takes into account the base and current year
quantities as weights.
𝐷𝐡
𝑃01
=
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
1
) × 100
×(
+
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1
2
Fisher’s Price Index
It is the GM of Laspeyre’s and Paasche’s index numbers. It takes into account the base and current year
quantities as weights.
𝐹
𝑃01
=√
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
×
× 100
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1
Why Fisher’s Index Number is Ideal
1.
2.
3.
4.
It is based on geometric mean which considers appropriate average for averaging ratio.
It takes into account both current year as well as base year quantities.
It satisfies both Time Reversal Test and Factor Reversal Test,
It is free of bias.
Kelly’s Price Index / Fixed Weight Index
𝐾
𝑃01
=
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž
× 100
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž
Weighted Average of Price Relatives
a) Weighted AM
𝑃01 =
∑ π‘Šπ‘ƒ
π‘Š
b) Weighted GM
𝑃01 = π΄π‘›π‘‘π‘–π‘™π‘œπ‘” (
∑ π‘Šπ‘™π‘œπ‘”π‘ƒ
)
∑π‘Š
Quantity Index Numbers (Weighted)
Laspeyre’s Quantity Index
𝐿
𝑄01
=
∑ π‘ž1 𝑝0
× 100
∑ π‘ž0 𝑝0
𝑃
𝑄01
=
∑ π‘ž1 𝑝1
× 100
∑ π‘ž0 𝑝1
Paasche’s Quantity Index
Marshall-Edgeworth Quantity Index
𝑀𝐸
𝑄01
=
∑ π‘ž1 𝑝0 + ∑ π‘ž1 𝑝1
× 100
∑ π‘ž0 𝑝0 + ∑ π‘ž0 𝑝1
Dorbish – Bowley’s Quantity Index
∑ π‘ž1 𝑝0 ∑ π‘ž1 𝑝1
1
𝐷𝐡
) × 100
𝑄01
= ×(
+
∑ π‘ž0 𝑝0 ∑ π‘ž0 𝑝1
2
Fisher’s Quantity Index
It is the GM of Laspeyre’s and Paasche’s index numbers. It takes into account the base and current year
quantities as weights.
𝐹
𝑄01
=√
∑ π‘ž1 𝑝0 ∑ π‘ž1 𝑝1
×
× 100
∑ π‘ž0 𝑝0 ∑ π‘ž0 𝑝1
Value Index Numbers
𝑉01 =
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
× 100
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0
Test for Adequacy of Index Number
Unit Test
This test requires index numbers must be independent of the units in which price or quantities of
various commodities are quoted.
It is satisfied by all index numbers discussed except Aggregative Price Index formula
Time Reversal Test
This was proposed by Irving Fisher.
According to this, an index number P01 should be such that when base year and current year are
interchanged (P10) the resulting inex number should be the reciprocal of the other.
TRT requires that the index number computed backward should be reciprocal of the index number
computed forward, except for constant proportionality.
𝑃10 =
1
= 𝑃01 × π‘ƒ10 = 1
𝑃01
Here P01 and P10 are ratios and must not be expressed as percentages.
1.
Laspeyre’s Method
𝐿
𝑃01
=
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0
× 100
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0
Accoridng to TRT
𝐿
𝑃10
=
𝐿
𝐿
𝑃01
× π‘ƒ10
=
Laspeyre’s number does not satisfy TRT.
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1
×
≠1
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
2. Paasche’s Method
𝑃
𝑃01
=
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1
𝑃
𝑃10
=
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0
When reversed it is
𝑃
𝑃
𝑃01
× π‘ƒ10
=
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1 ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0
×
≠1
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0
Paasche’s index number does not satisfy TRT.
3. Marshall-Edgeworth Method
𝑀𝐸
𝑃01
=
(∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 + ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1 )
(∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 + ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1 )
When reversed it is:
𝑀𝐸
𝑃10
=
𝑀𝐸
𝑀𝐸
𝑃01
× π‘ƒ10
=
(∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1 + ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 )
(∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1 + ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 )
(∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 + ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1 ) (∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1 + ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 )
×
=1
(∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 + ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1 ) (∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1 + ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 )
Marshall-Edgeworth Index number satisfied TRT.
4. Dorbish Bowley’s Index Number
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
1
𝐷𝐡
)
𝑃01
= ×(
+
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1
2
When reversed
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1 ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0
1
𝐷𝐡
)
𝑃10
= ×(
+
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0
2
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
∑𝑝 π‘ž
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0
1
1
𝐷𝐡
𝐷𝐡
)× ×( 0 1+
)≠1
𝑃01
× π‘ƒ10
= ×(
+
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0
2
2
Dorbish Bowley index number does not satisfy TRT.
5. Fisher’s Method
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
𝐹
𝑃01
=√
×
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1
When reversed
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1 ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0
𝐹
𝑃10
=√
×
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1 ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0
𝐹
𝐹
𝑃01
× π‘ƒ10
=√
×
×√
×
=1
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0
Fisher index number satisfies TRT
6. Kelly’s Method
𝐾
𝑃01
=
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž
𝐾
𝑃10
=
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž
When reversed
𝐾
𝐾
𝑃01
× π‘ƒ10
=
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž
×
=1
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž
Factor Reversal Test
This was also made by Irving Fisher. It requires that the product of price index and quantity index
number should be equal to corresponding value index number.
According to this
𝑃01 × π‘„01 = 𝑉01
Only Fisher index number satisfies this test.
Fisher Index Number:
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
𝐹
𝑃01
=√
×
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1
∑ π‘ž1 𝑝0 ∑ π‘ž1 𝑝1
𝐹
𝑄01
=√
×
∑ π‘ž0 𝑝0 ∑ π‘ž0 𝑝1
According to FRT
𝑃01 × π‘„01 = 𝑉01 =
𝑝1 π‘ž1
𝑝0 π‘ž0
Consider
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž1
∑ π‘ž1 𝑝0 ∑ π‘ž1 𝑝1
𝑃01 × π‘„01 = √
×
×√
×
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0 ∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž1
∑ π‘ž0 𝑝0 ∑ π‘ž0 𝑝1
𝑝1 π‘ž1 2
)
𝑃01 × π‘„01 = √(
𝑝0 π‘ž0
𝑃01 × π‘„01 =
𝑝1 π‘ž1
= 𝑉01
𝑝0 π‘ž0
Circular Test
This was suggested by Westergaard, It is an extension of Time Reversal Test for more than two periods
and is based on the ability to shift base period.
This requires that the index number is to work in a circular manner and this property enables us to find
the index numbers from period to period without referring back to original base each time. For 3 years;
0, 1, and 2 circular test is
𝑃01 × π‘ƒ12 × π‘ƒ20 = 1
Bias in an Index Number
Laspeyre’s index which is based on base year quantities gives relatively more weightage for such
commodities than needed and consequently the numerator is relatively larger.
Hence Laspeyre’s index number has ‘Upward Bias’
Paasche’s index number, which uses the current year quantities as weights is generally an
underestimate. Because greater variations of price will be paid lesser importance needed and it shows
‘Downward bias’
Cost of Living Index Number
CPI is the index number of the cost met by a specified class of consumers in buying a basket of goods
and services. Basket of goods and services means goods and services needed in day to day life of the
specified class of consumers.
Class of consumers means group of consumers who have almost identical pattern of consumption.
Steps involved in Construction of CPI
1. The fixed basket of goods and services is defined. This requires figuring out where the typical
consumer spends his or her money. The Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys consumers to gather
this information.
2. The prices for every item in the fixed basket are found. Since the same basket of goods and
services is used across a number of time periods to determine changes in the CPI, the price for
every item in the fixed basket must be found for every point in time.
3. The cost of the fixed basket of goods and services must be calculated for each time period. Like
computing GDP, the cost of the fixed basket of goods and services is found by multiplying the
quantity of each item times its price.
4. A base year is chosen and the index is computed. The price of the fixed basket of goods and
services for each comparison year is then divided by the price of the fixed basket of goods in the
base year. The result is multiplied by 100 to give the relative level of the cost of living between
the base year and the comparison years.
Computing CPI
Aggregative Expenditure Method
The base year quantities (q0) for various commodities consumed by a particular class of people are
taken as weights.
𝐢𝑃𝐼 π‘œπ‘Ÿ πΆπ‘œπ‘ π‘‘ π‘œπ‘“ 𝐿𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒π‘₯ π‘π‘œ =
∑ 𝑝1 π‘ž0
∑ 𝑝0 π‘ž0
Family Budget Method
CPI is constructed by using weighted arithmetic mean of price relatives, the weight being values of the
items consumed in base year.
π‘Šπ‘’π‘–π‘”β„Žπ‘‘ (𝑀) = 𝑝0 π‘ž0
𝐢𝑃𝐼 =
∑ π‘Šπ‘ƒ
∑π‘Š
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