14-Dec-15
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Click on PDF or Excel link above for additional tables containing more detail and breakdowns by filing status and demographic groups.
Table T15-0225
Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Nonrefundable Credit
Baseline: Current Law
Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Level, 2016 ¹
Summary Table
Expanded Cash Income
Level (thousands of 2015
dollars) 2
Tax Units with Tax Increase or Cut 3
With Tax Cut
Pct of Tax Units
Avg Tax Cut
With Tax Increase
Avg Tax
Pct of Tax Units
Increase
Percent Change
in After-Tax
Income 4
Share of Total
Federal Tax
Change
Average
Federal Tax
Change ($)
Average Federal Tax Rate5
Change (%
Points)
Under the
Proposal
Less than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100-200
200-500
500-1,000
More than 1,000
All
*
1.1
3.0
9.1
16.2
24.7
35.0
31.5
7.9
3.4
6.2
14.8
**
-189
-257
-272
-303
-326
-432
-512
-554
-729
-1,624
-414
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
1.2
5.4
13.0
30.3
69.2
74.0
57.5
11.9
0
0
312
330
388
432
619
841
1,884
3,805
5,568
1,385
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.6
-0.6
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
-0.9
-2.0
-3.3
-7.6
-6.3
14.4
73.1
20.6
12.3
100.0
0
-2
-7
-22
-44
-57
-71
94
1,260
2,792
3,103
103
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.1
7.6
3.5
5.5
8.8
11.4
13.7
16.3
19.2
23.9
29.0
34.9
20.5
Addendum
100-125
125-150
150-175
175-200
38.6
32.7
24.3
18.5
-516
-512
-489
-522
15.7
29.1
44.4
55.2
736
732
869
1,009
0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
-5.1
1.9
7.8
9.8
-84
46
266
460
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2
17.6
18.8
20.1
21.3
Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).
Number of AMT Taxpayers (millions). Baseline: 4.3
Proposal: 4.9
* Less than 0.05
** Insufficient data
(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits
($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment
portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm
(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but
are included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(3) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.
(4) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate taxes; and excise taxes.
(5) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.
14-Dec-15
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Table T15-0225
Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Nonrefundable Credit
Baseline: Current Law
Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Level, 2016 ¹
Detail Table
Expanded Cash Income
Level (thousands of 2015
dollars) 2
Percent of Tax Units 3
With Tax cut
With Tax
Increase
Percent Change
in After-Tax
Income 4
Share of Total
Federal Tax
Change
Average Federal Tax Change
Dollars
Percent
Share of Federal Taxes
Change (%
Points)
Under the
Proposal
Average Federal Tax Rate5
Change (%
Points)
Under the
Proposal
Less than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100-200
200-500
500-1,000
More than 1,000
All
*
1.1
3.0
9.1
16.2
24.7
35.0
31.5
7.9
3.4
6.2
14.8
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
1.2
5.4
13.0
30.3
69.2
74.0
57.5
11.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.6
-0.6
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
-0.9
-2.0
-3.3
-7.6
-6.3
14.4
73.1
20.6
12.3
100.0
0
-2
-7
-22
-44
-57
-71
94
1,260
2,792
3,103
103
0.0
-0.4
-0.5
-0.7
-0.8
-0.7
-0.5
0.4
1.9
1.4
0.3
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.5
1.0
1.6
2.2
6.6
7.5
24.0
23.2
8.5
24.5
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.1
7.6
3.5
5.5
8.8
11.4
13.7
16.3
19.2
23.9
29.0
34.9
20.5
Addendum
100-125
125-150
150-175
175-200
38.6
32.7
24.3
18.5
15.7
29.1
44.4
55.2
0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
-5.1
1.9
7.8
9.8
-84
46
266
460
-0.4
0.2
0.8
1.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.1
6.4
5.6
5.0
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2
17.6
18.8
20.1
21.3
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes
by Expanded Cash Income Level, 2016 ¹
Expanded Cash Income
Level (thousands of 2015
dollars) 2
Less than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100-200
200-500
500-1,000
More than 1,000
All
Addendum
100-125
125-150
150-175
175-200
Tax Units
Number
(thousands)
Percent of
Total
14,724
26,039
21,906
16,072
13,205
23,789
15,880
27,265
10,362
1,317
705
###########
8.5
15.1
12.7
9.3
7.7
13.8
9.2
15.8
6.0
0.8
0.4
##########
10,817
7,442
5,221
3,785
6.3
4.3
3.0
2.2
Pre-Tax Income
Federal Tax Burden
Average (dollars)
Percent of
Total
Average (dollars)
5,753
15,359
25,245
35,565
45,784
62,910
88,631
141,622
288,418
686,585
3,064,525
86,987
0.6
2.7
3.7
3.8
4.0
10.0
9.4
25.7
19.9
6.0
14.4
100.0
439
539
1,382
3,153
5,244
8,655
14,527
27,050
67,569
195,971
1,066,076
17,747
114,131
139,840
165,502
190,750
8.2
6.9
5.8
4.8
20,177
26,253
32,982
40,076
Percent of
Total
After-Tax Income 4
Average
Federal Tax
Rate 5
Average (dollars)
Percent of
Total
0.2
0.5
1.0
1.7
2.3
6.7
7.5
24.1
22.9
8.4
24.6
100.0
5,313
14,820
23,863
32,412
40,540
54,255
74,103
114,572
220,849
490,614
1,998,449
69,241
0.7
3.2
4.4
4.4
4.5
10.8
9.9
26.2
19.2
5.4
11.8
100.0
7.6
3.5
5.5
8.9
11.5
13.8
16.4
19.1
23.4
28.5
34.8
20.4
7.1
6.4
5.6
5.0
93,954
113,586
132,520
150,674
8.5
7.1
5.8
4.8
17.7
18.8
19.9
21.0
Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).
Number of AMT Taxpayers (millions). Baseline: 4.3
Proposal: 4.9
* Less than 0.05
(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits
($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment
portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm
(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are
included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(3) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.
(4) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.
(5) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.
14-Dec-15
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Table T15-0225
Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Non-refundable Credit
Baseline: Current Law
Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Level, 2016 ¹
Detail Table - Single Tax Units
Expanded Cash Income
Level (thousands of 2015
2
dollars)
Percent of Tax Units 3
With Tax cut
With Tax
Increase
Percent Change
in After-Tax
4
Income
Share of Total
Federal Tax
Change
Average Federal Tax Change
Dollars
Percent
Share of Federal Taxes
Change (%
Points)
Under the
Proposal
Average Federal Tax Rate5
Change (%
Points)
Under the
Proposal
Less than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100-200
200-500
500-1,000
More than 1,000
All
*
1.2
3.6
11.1
19.6
24.0
18.9
8.2
1.7
2.2
6.0
8.4
0.0
0.0
*
*
0.1
7.5
26.9
40.0
53.4
55.2
40.3
5.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.6
-0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-1.6
-4.4
-9.7
-13.9
-10.3
24.8
62.5
39.3
7.8
5.5
100.0
0
-2
-9
-30
-55
-27
131
346
1,144
2,011
1,904
33
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.7
-0.8
-0.3
0.7
1.2
1.6
0.9
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.7
4.5
5.5
6.7
16.3
13.6
21.9
10.3
3.5
13.8
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
9.5
6.4
9.1
12.2
14.4
17.2
20.5
22.6
27.1
32.5
37.7
18.6
Addendum
100-125
125-150
150-175
175-200
10.9
7.2
3.7
1.9
36.7
42.3
44.3
47.1
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
24.5
17.1
10.8
10.1
260
366
447
640
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
9.3
5.9
3.7
3.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
21.6
22.6
23.2
25.1
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes
by Expanded Cash Income Level, 2016 ¹
Expanded Cash Income
Level (thousands of 2015
2
dollars)
Tax Units
Pre-Tax Income
Number
(thousands)
Percent of
Total
Less than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100-200
200-500
500-1,000
More than 1,000
All
12,809
20,058
14,163
9,258
7,373
10,972
5,479
5,238
994
112
83
87,180
14.7
23.0
16.3
10.6
8.5
12.6
6.3
6.0
1.1
0.1
0.1
##########
Addendum
100-125
125-150
150-175
175-200
2,728
1,353
700
457
3.1
1.6
0.8
0.5
Average (dollars)
Federal Tax Burden
Percent of
Total
Average (dollars)
Percent of
Total
After-Tax Income 4
Average (dollars)
Percent of
Total
Average
Federal Tax
5
Rate
5,712
15,217
25,106
35,513
45,789
62,354
87,830
133,711
276,795
694,692
3,180,472
44,584
1.9
7.9
9.2
8.5
8.7
17.6
12.4
18.0
7.1
2.0
6.8
100.0
540
971
2,305
4,363
6,653
10,769
17,880
29,832
73,900
223,500
1,197,912
8,266
1.0
2.7
4.5
5.6
6.8
16.4
13.6
21.7
10.2
3.5
13.8
100.0
5,171
14,246
22,801
31,150
39,137
51,585
69,951
103,878
202,896
471,193
1,982,560
36,317
2.1
9.0
10.2
9.1
9.1
17.9
12.1
17.2
6.4
1.7
5.2
100.0
9.5
6.4
9.2
12.3
14.5
17.3
20.4
22.3
26.7
32.2
37.7
18.5
113,538
139,393
164,372
190,329
8.0
4.9
3.0
2.2
24,278
31,137
37,722
47,032
9.2
5.9
3.7
3.0
89,259
108,256
126,650
143,297
7.7
4.6
2.8
2.1
21.4
22.3
23.0
24.7
Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).
* Less than 0.05
(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits
($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment
portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm
(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are
included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(3) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.
(4) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.
(5) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.
14-Dec-15
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Table T15-0225
Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Nonrefundable Credit
Baseline: Current Law
Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Level, 2016 ¹
Detail Table - Married Tax Units Filing Jointly
Expanded Cash Income
Level (thousands of 2015
2
dollars)
Percent of Tax Units 3
With Tax cut
With Tax
Increase
Percent Change
in After-Tax
4
Income
Share of Total
Federal Tax
Change
Average Federal Tax Change
Dollars
Percent
Share of Federal Taxes
Change (%
Points)
Under the
Proposal
Average Federal Tax Rate5
Change (%
Points)
Under the
Proposal
Less than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100-200
200-500
500-1,000
More than 1,000
All
0.0
0.0
1.1
3.9
9.1
26.6
46.5
39.5
8.7
3.5
6.1
25.4
0.0
0.0
*
1.0
2.4
3.0
2.3
26.2
71.0
76.4
60.6
22.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.0
-0.6
-0.6
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-5.2
-12.4
-0.6
81.0
23.9
13.9
100.0
0
0
-3
-7
-21
-93
-221
-4
1,264
2,890
3,306
242
0.0
0.0
-1.2
-0.5
-0.7
-1.5
-1.8
0.0
1.9
1.5
0.3
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
2.3
4.5
24.3
28.8
10.7
28.5
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.2
2.3
1.0
0.9
3.8
6.8
9.9
13.6
18.2
23.5
28.6
34.4
22.3
Addendum
100-125
125-150
150-175
175-200
53.1
40.7
29.2
21.7
3.6
24.3
43.5
56.0
0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-13.4
-2.6
6.1
9.4
-275
-68
204
419
-1.5
-0.3
0.6
1.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
5.8
6.4
6.3
5.8
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
15.8
17.7
19.4
20.6
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes
by Expanded Cash Income Level, 2016 ¹
Expanded Cash Income
Level (thousands of 2015
2
dollars)
Tax Units
Number
(thousands)
Percent of
Total
Less than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100-200
200-500
500-1,000
More than 1,000
All
825
1,902
2,948
2,940
2,904
7,878
7,909
19,667
9,043
1,165
594
58,288
1.4
3.3
5.1
5.0
5.0
13.5
13.6
33.7
15.5
2.0
1.0
##########
Addendum
100-125
125-150
150-175
175-200
6,866
5,469
4,179
3,153
11.8
9.4
7.2
5.4
Pre-Tax Income
Average (dollars)
Federal Tax Burden
Percent of
Total
Average (dollars)
Percent of
Total
After-Tax Income 4
Average (dollars)
Percent of
Total
Average
Federal Tax
5
Rate
4,990
15,969
25,619
35,768
45,927
63,892
89,407
144,686
290,037
685,362
2,981,946
164,217
0.0
0.3
0.8
1.1
1.4
5.3
7.4
29.7
27.4
8.3
18.5
100.0
114
165
243
1,355
3,124
6,395
12,363
26,354
66,806
192,911
1,023,566
36,401
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
2.4
4.6
24.4
28.5
10.6
28.6
100.0
4,876
15,804
25,376
34,412
42,803
57,497
77,045
118,332
223,232
492,451
1,958,379
127,815
0.1
0.4
1.0
1.4
1.7
6.1
8.2
31.2
27.1
7.7
15.6
100.0
2.3
1.0
1.0
3.8
6.8
10.0
13.8
18.2
23.0
28.2
34.3
22.2
114,485
140,013
165,610
190,822
8.2
8.0
7.2
6.3
18,380
24,883
31,928
38,878
6.0
6.4
6.3
5.8
96,105
115,131
133,681
151,944
8.9
8.5
7.5
6.4
16.1
17.8
19.3
20.4
Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).
* Less than 0.05
(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits
($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment
portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm
(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are
included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(3) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.
(4) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.
(5) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.
14-Dec-15
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Table T15-0225
Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Nonrefundable Credit
Baseline: Current Law
Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Level, 2016 ¹
Detail Table - Head of Household Tax Units
Expanded Cash Income
Level (thousands of 2015
2
dollars)
Percent of Tax Units 3
With Tax cut
With Tax
Increase
Percent Change
in After-Tax
4
Income
Share of Total
Federal Tax
Change
Average Federal Tax Change
Dollars
Percent
Share of Federal Taxes
Change (%
Points)
Under the
Proposal
Average Federal Tax Rate5
Change (%
Points)
Under the
Proposal
Less than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100-200
200-500
500-1,000
More than 1,000
All
0.0
0.1
1.3
5.5
12.2
21.7
33.7
18.1
4.5
4.8
7.3
10.8
0.0
0.0
0.7
2.3
2.8
3.1
13.2
41.5
68.6
64.3
55.0
6.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.7
-0.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-1.7
-5.4
-17.3
-59.9
-25.0
118.4
71.3
11.1
8.6
100.0
0
0
-2
-8
-34
-71
-59
314
1,429
2,403
3,162
21
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.7
-1.0
-1.0
-0.4
1.2
2.2
1.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-4.1
-2.9
2.7
5.6
19.8
19.0
33.2
11.4
3.3
12.4
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
-10.2
-10.6
-3.9
3.3
7.2
11.1
15.2
19.6
24.7
30.1
34.8
11.9
Addendum
100-125
125-150
150-175
175-200
21.2
20.2
7.8
5.5
34.4
41.5
58.8
62.8
-0.2
-0.3
-0.5
-0.5
37.1
29.0
34.1
18.2
186
286
663
735
0.9
1.0
1.9
1.8
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
13.9
9.5
6.3
3.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4
18.1
19.9
21.7
22.2
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes
by Expanded Cash Income Level, 2016 ¹
Expanded Cash Income
Level (thousands of 2015
2
dollars)
Tax Units
Pre-Tax Income
Number
(thousands)
Percent of
Total
Less than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100-200
200-500
500-1,000
More than 1,000
All
944
3,778
4,451
3,522
2,630
4,350
2,175
1,950
258
24
14
24,145
3.9
15.7
18.4
14.6
10.9
18.0
9.0
8.1
1.1
0.1
0.1
##########
Addendum
100-125
125-150
150-175
175-200
1,033
523
266
128
4.3
2.2
1.1
0.5
Average (dollars)
Federal Tax Burden
Percent of
Total
Average (dollars)
Percent of
Total
After-Tax Income 4
Average (dollars)
Percent of
Total
Average
Federal Tax
5
Rate
6,963
15,795
25,430
35,527
45,596
62,486
87,734
132,812
274,070
693,999
3,840,137
53,332
0.5
4.6
8.8
9.7
9.3
21.1
14.8
20.1
5.5
1.3
4.2
100.0
-711
-1,677
-986
1,194
3,301
7,017
13,431
25,725
66,328
206,308
1,333,715
6,313
-0.4
-4.2
-2.9
2.8
5.7
20.0
19.2
32.9
11.2
3.2
12.4
100.0
7,674
17,473
26,416
34,333
42,295
55,469
74,303
107,087
207,742
487,692
2,506,422
47,020
0.6
5.8
10.4
10.7
9.8
21.3
14.2
18.4
4.7
1.0
3.1
100.0
-10.2
-10.6
-3.9
3.4
7.2
11.2
15.3
19.4
24.2
29.7
34.7
11.8
113,608
139,299
167,150
189,759
9.1
5.7
3.5
1.9
20,363
27,481
35,543
41,375
13.8
9.4
6.2
3.5
93,245
111,818
131,607
148,384
8.5
5.2
3.1
1.7
17.9
19.7
21.3
21.8
Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).
* Less than 0.05
(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits
($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment
portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm
(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are
included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(3) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.
(4) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.
(5) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.
14-Dec-15
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Table T15-0225
Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Nonrefundable Credit
Baseline: Current Law
Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Level, 2016 ¹
Detail Table - Tax Units with Children
Expanded Cash Income
Level (thousands of 2015
dollars) 2
Percent of Tax Units 3
With Tax cut
With Tax
Increase
Percent Change
in After-Tax
Income 4
Share of Total
Federal Tax
Change
Average Federal Tax Change
Dollars
Percent
Share of Federal Taxes
Change (%
Points)
Under the
Proposal
Average Federal Tax Rate5
Change (%
Points)
Under the
Proposal
Less than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100-200
200-500
500-1,000
More than 1,000
All
0.0
0.0
0.4
3.1
9.3
19.1
38.7
37.0
7.5
3.6
6.4
17.2
0.0
0.0
0.7
2.6
4.2
5.7
9.0
32.7
79.8
83.3
67.7
20.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.7
-0.7
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.6
-3.3
-6.7
7.4
70.9
20.4
11.8
100.0
0
0
0
1
-18
-54
-151
74
1,568
3,358
3,873
233
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.6
-0.8
-1.2
0.3
2.3
1.7
0.4
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.4
0.1
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.7
-0.5
0.2
0.8
3.6
5.1
23.6
28.3
10.8
28.6
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.2
-11.8
-11.5
-4.8
2.0
6.3
10.6
14.2
18.2
23.6
28.9
34.6
20.8
Addendum
100-125
125-150
150-175
175-200
47.9
41.0
26.9
18.7
11.3
27.6
52.0
63.9
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-7.0
-1.4
6.8
9.0
-200
-51
326
576
-1.1
-0.2
1.0
1.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
5.9
6.2
6.1
5.5
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.3
16.1
17.5
19.4
20.4
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes
by Expanded Cash Income Level, 2016 ¹
Expanded Cash Income
Level (thousands of 2015
dollars) 2
Tax Units
Number
(thousands)
Less than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100-200
200-500
500-1,000
More than 1,000
All
1,246
4,675
5,672
4,492
3,628
7,050
5,198
11,657
5,301
712
357
50,272
Addendum
100-125
125-150
150-175
175-200
4,112
3,266
2,443
1,835
Percent of
Total
2.5
9.3
11.3
8.9
7.2
14.0
10.3
23.2
10.5
1.4
0.7
##########
8.2
6.5
4.9
3.7
Pre-Tax Income
Federal Tax Burden
Average (dollars)
Percent of
Total
Average (dollars)
6,635
15,763
25,471
35,564
45,644
63,024
89,122
144,292
293,122
683,288
2,994,529
123,886
0.1
1.2
2.3
2.6
2.7
7.1
7.4
27.0
25.0
7.8
17.2
100.0
-782
-1,818
-1,218
705
2,881
6,717
12,820
26,147
67,624
193,863
1,031,349
25,527
114,421
139,695
165,757
190,832
7.6
7.3
6.5
5.6
18,656
24,519
31,758
38,360
Percent of
Total
After-Tax Income 4
Average
Federal Tax
Rate 5
Average (dollars)
Percent of
Total
-0.1
-0.7
-0.5
0.3
0.8
3.7
5.2
23.8
27.9
10.8
28.7
100.0
7,417
17,580
26,689
34,858
42,763
56,307
76,302
118,145
225,498
489,425
1,963,181
98,359
0.2
1.7
3.1
3.2
3.1
8.0
8.0
27.9
24.2
7.0
14.2
100.0
-11.8
-11.5
-4.8
2.0
6.3
10.7
14.4
18.1
23.1
28.4
34.4
20.6
6.0
6.2
6.1
5.5
95,765
115,176
133,999
152,471
8.0
7.6
6.6
5.7
16.3
17.6
19.2
20.1
Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).
* Less than 0.05
Note: Tax units with children are those claiming an exemption for children at home or away from home.
(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits
($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment
portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm
(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are
included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(3) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.
(4) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.
(5) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.
14-Dec-15
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org
Table T15-0225
Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Nonrefundable Credit
Baseline: Current Law
Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Level, 2016 ¹
Detail Table - Elderly Tax Units
Expanded Cash Income
Level (thousands of 2015
dollars) 2
Percent of Tax Units 3
With Tax cut
With Tax
Increase
Percent Change
in After-Tax
Income 4
Share of Total
Federal Tax
Change
Average Federal Tax Change
Dollars
Percent
Share of Federal Taxes
Change (%
Points)
Under the
Proposal
Average Federal Tax Rate5
Change (%
Points)
Under the
Proposal
Less than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100-200
200-500
500-1,000
More than 1,000
All
0.2
0.8
3.0
8.8
19.0
31.3
41.4
32.1
10.3
3.2
5.9
15.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
*
0.1
2.0
5.5
17.0
46.0
61.3
45.7
5.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-3.3
-11.4
-23.7
-38.0
-108.3
-107.5
-31.1
241.5
101.2
80.8
100.0
0
-2
-7
-24
-48
-79
-119
-26
672
1,969
2,176
10
-0.1
-0.7
-1.0
-1.5
-1.7
-1.5
-1.1
-0.1
1.0
1.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.7
5.6
7.5
21.6
18.5
8.2
34.1
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
2.4
1.7
2.8
4.4
6.0
8.5
12.3
17.0
23.6
29.3
35.9
17.8
Addendum
100-125
125-150
150-175
175-200
39.7
30.0
22.9
21.6
8.0
18.8
26.3
33.9
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-60.7
-6.5
16.5
19.6
-114
-20
79
144
-0.7
-0.1
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.8
6.0
4.8
4.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
14.6
17.2
18.3
20.3
Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes
by Expanded Cash Income Level, 2016 ¹
Expanded Cash Income
Level (thousands of 2015
dollars) 2
Tax Units
Number
(thousands)
Less than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-75
75-100
100-200
200-500
500-1,000
More than 1,000
All
1,889
7,909
6,516
4,256
3,361
5,868
3,871
5,135
1,539
220
159
41,164
Addendum
100-125
125-150
150-175
175-200
2,270
1,390
893
582
Percent of
Total
4.6
19.2
15.8
10.3
8.2
14.3
9.4
12.5
3.7
0.5
0.4
##########
5.5
3.4
2.2
1.4
Pre-Tax Income
Federal Tax Burden
Average (dollars)
Percent of
Total
Average (dollars)
5,514
15,610
25,150
35,561
45,754
62,781
88,361
138,547
285,155
710,712
3,339,288
76,347
0.3
3.9
5.2
4.8
4.9
11.7
10.9
22.6
14.0
5.0
16.9
100.0
131
265
721
1,580
2,786
5,408
10,948
23,509
66,530
206,407
1,195,134
13,565
114,026
139,736
164,995
190,799
8.2
6.2
4.7
3.5
16,786
24,020
30,040
38,497
Percent of
Total
After-Tax Income 4
Average
Federal Tax
Rate 5
Average (dollars)
Percent of
Total
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.7
5.7
7.6
21.6
18.3
8.1
34.0
100.0
5,383
15,344
24,429
33,981
42,968
57,373
77,413
115,038
218,625
504,305
2,144,154
62,782
0.4
4.7
6.2
5.6
5.6
13.0
11.6
22.9
13.0
4.3
13.2
100.0
2.4
1.7
2.9
4.4
6.1
8.6
12.4
17.0
23.3
29.0
35.8
17.8
6.8
6.0
4.8
4.0
97,240
115,716
134,956
152,301
8.5
6.2
4.7
3.4
14.7
17.2
18.2
20.2
Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).
* Less than 0.05
Note: Elderly tax units are those with either head or spouse (if filing jointly) age 65 or older.
(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits
($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment
portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm
(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are
included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm
(3) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.
(4) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.
(5) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.