Progress Update 1 MDM4U1: Culminating Progress Update # 4 Yolen Bollo-Kamara St. Edmund Campion S.S. December 12, 2008 Progress Update 2 Data Analysis The relationship between the population of Canadian capital cities and the percentage of its population that uses public transit to get to work. Provincial Capital Population (hundred Percentage of Transit City thousands) Ridership Victoria, BC 3.30088 10.2 Regina, SK 1.94971 4.2 Edmonton, AB 10.34945 9.7 Toronto, ON 40.75312 22.2 St. John's, NF 1.81113 2.9 Quebec, QU 7.15500 10.2 Winnipeg, MA 6.33451 13 Halifax, NS 2.82924 11.9 correlation coefficient of above chart: 0.8473850360 mean population of above cities: 9.31038 x 100 000 = 931,038 mean percentage of population of the cities in the above graph that uses public transit to get to work: 10.5375 The relationship between the median household income of a city and bus fare for a high school student in Canadian and American cities. Progress Update 3 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Median Household Income (ten thousands) $2.00 HS Student Cash Fares $2.50 $7.000 $3.00 $6.000 $2.50 $5.000 $2.00 $4.000 $1.50 $3.000 $1.00 $2.000 $1.000 $0.50 $0.000 $0.00 Ch ar lo tte to wn Ed ,P m EI on t o Fr n, ed AB er ic to n, NB Ha lifa Q ue x, be NS c C ity ,Q Re B gi na St ,S .J K oh n's ,N To FL ro nt o, O Vi N ct or ia W ,B in C ni pe g, M A C Ne h ica w go Y ,I Ho o rk, L Ph u ila sto NY Lo del n , s p h TX An ia Sa ge , PA n le Sa Di s, C n eg A An o, to CA ni Da o, T lla X D s, Sa e tr TX n oit, Jo se MI ,C A Median Household Income $90,000.00 $80,000.00 $70,000.00 $60,000.00 $50,000.00 $40,000.00 $30,000.00 $20,000.00 $10,000.00 $0.00 American Cities Canadian Provincial Capitals correlation coefficient of above graph: 0.0125 correlation coefficient of above graph: 0.404 mean household income (of all Canadian cities studied): $46,409 mean household income (of all American cities studied): $59,006 The relationship between the population of a city and bus fare for a high school student in Canadian and American cities. 4.000 $1.50 3.000 $1.00 2.000 $0.50 1.000 $0.00 pt on ,O W N in ds or ,O V N ic to ria S , t. BC Jo hn S 's tC ,N at FL ha rin es Q ue ,O be N c C ity ,Q K itc B he ne r ,O W in N ni pe g, M A 0.000 B Population $2.00 5.000 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 American Cities Cities correlation coefficient of above graph: 0.096 $2.50 Ne cag o, w Yo IL rk ,N Ho Y Ph us ila ton de ,T lp Lo X h s An ia, P g A Sa ele s, n CA Di Sa eg o n An , C A to ni o, Da TX lla s De , TX Sa tr oi t, n Jo MI se ,C A 6.000 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Ch i $2.50 HS student cash fare $3.00 7.000 ra m Population (ten thousands) 8.000 HS Student Cash Fares Comparing Population (millions) to HS Student Cash Fares Comparing Population to HS student Cash Fare in Mid-Size Canadian Cities correlation coefficient of above graph: 0.1843 mean population (of all Canadian cities studied): 831,138.6 mean population (of all American cities studied): 1,079,164 mean high school student cash fare in Canada: $2.21 mean high school student cash fare in United States: $1.03 HS Student Cash Fare Comparing Median Household Income to HS Student Cash Fare in Canada Comparing Median Household Income to HS Student Cash Fares Progress Update 4 Conclusions The relationship between the population of a city and the percentage of its population that uses public transit. A table from Statistics Canada (2008) provided data on the percentages of people that use public transit to get to work in cities across Canada. Using this table and population information of Canadian provincial capital cities (except Charlottetown and New Brunswick), a correlation coefficient of about 0.85 was calculated, a strong positive correlation. The mean population of the eight cities used is about 931,000 and the mean percentage of people who use public transit to get to work is 10.5%, which means that in a city of 931,000 people, about 10.5% can be expected to use public transit. The closest to this was Edmonton, with a population of 1.03 million, with about 9.7% of the population using public transit. Therefore, a line of best fit would be fairly accurate in predicting data for other cities. This proves that the population of a city clearly has an effect on the percentage of people who choose to take public transit. As was hypothesized, the larger the city, the more likely its population is to choose public transit. This is most likely because the greater demand for transit in larger cities generates more revenue which can be used to improve service. The relationship between the median household income of a city and bus fare for a high school students. Clearly, in the United States there is no real relationship between median household income and high school student cash fares, but in Canada there is a moderate postive correlation. The average income of the population of all the American cities included in this study is about $46,000, and the average bus fare for a high school student is $1.03. The average income of the population of all the Canadian cities included in this study is about $59,000, and the average bus Progress Update 5 fare for a high school student is $2.21. This disproves the hypothesis that the median household income of a city affects the price paid for transit in the United States, but in Canada, the median household income of a city has a moderate effect on the public transit fare. The relationship between population of a city and bus fare for a high school student From just looking at the graphs, it is clear to see that the population of a city has little to no correlation with the amount that a high school student will pay to board the bus. The population of a city has little to no effect on the amount students pay for transit. This disproves the hypothesis that the population of a city affects the fare for public transit. Comparing Transit Costs in Canada and the United States Basically, American cities have much lower fares for transit, regardless of the mean household income in each city. High school students in Canada pay more than double the amount of their counterparts in the United States to board the bus, although the average household income of the Canadian cities studied is only about one and a quarter times than that of the American cities studied. It is also important to note that the American cities were on average had about 200,000 more people than the Canadian cities. This is further proof that population does not affect the cost of public transit. Progress Update 6 Related Research “New Ridership Record Shows U.S. Still Lured to Mass Transit” According to an article written by the Washington Post (Sun, 2008), the levels of transit ridership in the United States are very high, despite a combination of negative factors currently occurring that should decrease ridership. This was initially thought to be the result of high gas prices but even as gas prices fell, the number of people taking the bus continued to increase. Unemployment rates are also increasing, which indicates that the resulting decrease in the median incomes of cities does not significantly decrease ridership as well. Two other negative factors are the increases in fares and reductions of service that is seen all over the country, caused by the deficits that many transit agencies are experiencing. For the purpose of this assignment, it was hypothesized that household income would have a positive correlation with transit ridership, while transit fares would have a negative correlation with transit ridership. The fact that transit ridership continues to increase regardless of the factors described clearly disproves this hypothesis, at least in relation to the United States. “Declining Gas Prices Could Derail Surge in Transit Use” This article (Bouzane, 2008) was published by The Vancouver Sun, and details a significant rise in transit ridership in Canada, similar to the United States. This appears to be for the same reasons suggested above for the increase in the Uni.ted States. However, in this article David Jeanes, president of Transport 2000, a transit advocacy group in Ottawa, provides a new perspective. According to Jeanes, the low gas prices may eventually cause people to return to driving their own vehicles if they are not satisfied with the level of service provided by public transit. The level of service was also included in the hypothesis for this project, as having a Progress Update 7 correlation with transit ridership. If David Jeanes is correct this part of the hypothesis is also proven to be true, however, as previously stated, an overall increase or decrease in the quality of service would be very challenging to quantify. Progress Update 8 References Bouzane, B. (2008, November 21). Declining gas prices could derail surge in transit use. The Vancouver Sun, Retrieved December 10, 2008, from http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=afe1c17d-2e1d-47e2-89337fe778a54e1ca Statistics Canada, (2008, April 9). Proportion of workers using public transit to get to work, census metropolitan areas, 1996, 2001 and 2006. Retrieved December 12, 2008, from Statistics Canada: Canada's National Statistical Agency Web site: http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/english/census06/analysis/pow/tables/table11b.htm Sun, L. (2008, December 8). New ridership record shows US still lured to mass transit. Washington Post, Retrieved December 9, 2008, from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/07/ AR2008120702792 .html Canadian Transit Websites Barrie, ON: http://www.city.barrie.on.ca/Content.cfm?C=591&SC=1&SCM=0&MI=452 Brampton: http://www.brampton.ca/transit/home.taf Calgary: http://www.calgarytransit.com/ Charlottetown: http://www.city.charlottetown.pe.ca/residents/transit_routes.cfm Edmonton: http://www.edmonton.ca/transportation/edmonton-transit-system-ets.aspx Fredericton: http://www.fredericton.ca/en/transportation/transitschedule.asp Halifax: http://www.halifax.ca/metrotransit/ Hamilton: http://www.myhamilton.ca/hamilton/CityandGovernment/CityServices/Transit Kitchener: http://www.grt.ca/web/transit.nsf/fmFrontPage?openform London: http://www.londontransit.ca/ Mississauga: http://www.mississauga.ca/portal/residents/publictransit Progress Update 9 Montreal: http://www.stm.info/english/a-somm.htm Niagara Falls: http://www.niagarafalls.ca//departments/transportation_services/transit/ Oakville: http://www.oakvilletransit.com/ Ottawa, ON: http://www.octranspo.com/ Quebec City, QB: http://www.rtcquebec.ca/francais/accueil.html Regina, SK: http://www.regina.ca/Page616.aspx St. Catharine’s, ON: http://www.yourbus.com/ St. John’s, NF: http://www.metrobus.com/ Toronto: http://www3.ttc.ca/ Vancouver, BC: http://www.translink.bc.ca/Transportation_Services/default.asp Victoria, BC: http://www.bctransit.com/regions/vic/ Windsor, ON: http://www.citywindsor.ca/000599.asp Winnipeg, MA: http://myride.winnipegtransit.com/en/ York Region, ON: http://www.yrt.ca/index1.asp American Transit Websites Austin, TX: http://www.capmetro.org/ Austin, TX: http://www.capmetro.org/ Baltimore, MD: http://www.mtamaryland.com/fares/currentfares/ Boston, MA: http://www.mbta.com/ Charlotte, NC: http://www.charmeck.org/Departments/CATS/Home.htm Chicago, IL: http://www.transitchicago.com/ Columbus, OH: http://www.cota.com/ Dallas, TX: http://m.dart.org/ Detroit, MI: http://www.detroitmi.gov/ddot/index.html El Paso, TX: http://m.dart.org/ Fort Worth, TX: http://m.dart.org/ Progress Update 10 Houston, TX: http://www.ridemetro.org/ Indianapolis, IN: http://www.indygo.net/ Jacksonville, FL: http://www.jtaonthemove.com/ Los Angeles, CA: http://www.metro.net/ Memphis, TN: http://www.matatransit.com/ Milwaukee, WI: http://www.ridemcts.com/ New Orleans, LA: http://www.norta.com/ New York, NY: http://www.mta.info/nyct/ Philadelphia, PA: http://www.septa.org/ Phoenix, AR: http://www.valleymetro.org/ San Antonio, TX: http://www.viainfo.net/ San Diego, CA: http://www.sdcommute.com/ San Francisco, CA: www.transit511.org San Jose, CA: www.transit511.org Seattle, WA: http://transit.metrokc.gov/ Statistics Canada- 2006 census: http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/data/popdwell/Table.cfm?T=801&PR=0&SR= 1&S=3&O=D City Mayors Statistics: Largest 100 U.S. Cities: http://www.citymayors.com/gratis/uscities_100.html http://www.city-data.com/