CHAPTER 3
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models
TRUE/FALSE
3.1
Decision Theory is described as a consequence or outcome, normally expressed in a monetary
value, which occurs as a result of a particular alternative and state of nature.
*3.2
Decision Theory is a process for organizing information and making decisions.
3.3
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) is the average or expected monetary outcome of a decision if it
can be repeated a large number of times.
*3.4
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) is the payoff you should expect to occur when you choose a
particular alternative.
*3.5
When we speak about the “goodness” or “badness” of a decision, we are talking about the degree
to which the decision process is logical.
3.6
Decision-making under uncertainty exists when a decision is made where several outcomes or
states of nature may occur as a result of the decision or choice of alternative, and the
probabilities of these outcomes or states of nature are known.
3.7
A good decision may result in an unfavorable outcome whereas a bad decision may result in a
favorable outcome.
3.8
The decision-maker has little or no control over a state of nature.
3.9
NASA uses a decision-making process to decide when to replace heat protection tiles on the
space shuttle.
3.10
Decision-making under risk is a probabilistic decision situation.
3.11
Bad decisions always result in bad or unfavorable outcomes.
*3.12
The difference in decision-making under risk and decision-making under uncertainty is that
under risk, we think we know the probabilities of the states of nature, while under uncertainty we
do not know the probabilities of the states of nature.
63
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.13
As a consequence of computer limitations, one should limit the number of decision alternatives
and possible states of nature.
3.14
EMV is the exact monetary value used in decision theory.
*3.15
The only good decision model is a computerized decision model.
3.16
KLM has developed a DSS to help determine the size and organization of the maintenance work
force.
3.17
EVPI is equivalent to the expected value with perfect or certain information.
*3.18
EVPI (Expected Value of Perfect Information) is a measure of the maximum value of additional
information.
*3.19
There are six steps in Decision Theory, and these steps and the decision maker should expect to
execute one step only a single time, and in the proper sequence.
3.20
EOL will always result in the same decision as EMV.
64
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.21
When using the EOL as a decision criteria, the best decision is the alternative with the least EOL
value.
3.22
Sensitivity analysis techniques investigate how a decision might change based on input changes
to the problem data.
*3.23
Whenever we use a decision model, we should always perform a sensitivity analysis on the
results.
*3.24
A major purpose of sensitivity analysis is to help us understand within what limits our preferred
solution holds.
3.25
The maximax decision criteria maximizes the maximum outcome for every alternative.
3.26
The maximin decision criteria minimizes the maximum outcome for every alternative.
3.27
Marginal analysis is an aid to decision-making when there are a large number of alternatives
and/or states of nature.
3.28
A decision table is a useful tool when one is attempting to make a set of decisions in sequence.
3.29
A common mistake of decision-makers is to concentrate only on the more positive outcomes.
3.30
Decision-making under risk implies a greater amount of information or knowledge than decisionmaking under uncertainty.
3.31
When we make a decision under risk, we will receive as an outcome the calculated expected
monetary value.
3.32
When we are attempting to make a decision under risk, it is possible for two alternatives to have
the same expected outcome.
3.33
When we are attempting to make a business decision, the decision criteria should always be to
minimize cost.
65
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.34
If we are considering additional information before making a decision, we should never spend
more for this information than the expected value of perfect information.
3.35
If we decide to purchase additional information before making a decision, the value of this
additional information will always be equal to the expected value of perfect information.
*3.36
The decision theory processes of maximizing Expected Monetary Value and minimizing
Expected Opportunity Loss should lead us to choose the same alternatives.
3.37
Decision-making under uncertainty implies that we have no objective estimates of probabilities.
We should therefore not bother to conduct sensitivity analysis.
3.38
The several criteria (maximax, maximin, equally likely, criterion of realism, minimax) used for
decision-making under uncertainty may lead to the choice of different alternatives.
3.39
The criterion of realism can be used when there are more than two states of nature.
3.40
Marginal analysis can only be performed with discrete distributions.
*3.41
In practice, it is sometimes difficult to identify all consequences of choosing a particular
alternative.
66
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
*3.42
In practice, it is always easy to quantify values for all outcomes.
MULTIPLE CHOICE
3.43
In decision theory, conditional values refer to
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.44
Which of the following is not considered to be a decision-making environment?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.45
alternatives.
states of nature.
expected monetary value.
expected value of perfect information.
payoffs.
risk
certainty
uncertainty
unknown
none of the above
Expected monetary value (EMV) is
(a) the average or expected monetary outcome of a decision if it can be repeated a large number
of times.
(b) the average or expected value of the decision if you know what would happen ahead of time.
(c) the average or expected value of information if it were completely accurate.
(d) the amount you would lose by not picking the best alternative.
(e) a decision criterion that places an equal weight on all states of nature.
3.46
A pessimistic decision-making criterion is
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
maximax.
equally likely.
maximin.
decision-making under certainty.
minimax.
67
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.47
A popular decision criteria for making decisions under risk is
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.48
Which of the following is true about the expected value of perfect information?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.49
minimax
maximax
criterion of realism
equally likely
EMV
The Laplace decision criteria is also known as the
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.52
the expected loss function.
marginal analysis.
the standard deviation.
the average sales.
the unit normal loss integral.
Which of the following models is not used for decision-making under uncertainty?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.51
It is the amount you would pay for any sample study.
It is calculated as EMV minus EOL.
It is calculated as expected value with perfect information minus maximum EMV.
It is the amount charged for marketing research.
none of the above
When the number of alternatives is large, a particularly effective approach to decision-making is
to use
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.50
maximax.
maximin.
minimax.
select the best payoff.
select the alternative with the highest expected monetary value.
maximax criteria.
maximin criteria.
equally likely criteria.
criteria of realism.
minimax criteria.
The Hurwicz decision criteria is also known as the
(a) maximax criteria.
(b) maximin criteria.
68
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
(c) equally likely criteria.
(d) criteria of realism.
(e) minimax criteria.
*3.53
Assume you have a decision to make, and that this decision involves a choice of one of three
alternatives. The expected payoffs are: Alternative #1: $3,712,345, Alternative #2: $3,712,323,
and Alternative #3: $3,712,356. Based on your model of the decision, which alternative should
you choose?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Alternative #1
Alternative #2
Alternative #3
When the outcomes are so close in value, no decision should be made, but rather one should
try a new model.
(e) none of the above
3.54
If product demand follows a normal distribution and we want to apply marginal analysis, we
need to know
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.55
the mean sales estimate.
the standard deviation of the sales estimate.
the marginal profit.
the marginal loss.
all of the above
EVPI is
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
the expected value of a decision if you knew what would happen ahead of time.
the expected value of perfect information.
EMV  EOL.
the amount you would lose by not picking the best alternative.
the expected monetary value of that decision which produces the longest expected monetary
value.
69
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.56
A good decision is not
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.57
Daily sales for a perishable food product are known to be 8, 9, 10, or 11 cases with probabilities
0.2, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.1, respectively. Cases not sold during the day are worthless, but cases can
only be produced in the morning before the store opens. The cost of producing one of these is $4
while the selling price is $7. If you wish to maximize expected profit, how many cases should be
produced each day?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
*3.58
necessarily the one that gives the best final results.
based upon appropriate quantitative results.
one that considers all alternatives.
based upon all available appropriate information.
all of the above
8
9
10
11
none of the above
Daily sales for a perishable food product are known to be 8, 9, 10, or 11 cases with probabilities
0.2, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.1, respectively. Cases not sold during the day are worthless, but cases can
only be produced in the morning before the store opens. The cost of producing one of these is $4
while the selling price is $7. If you choose to produce 10 cases in the morning to sell, what is the
probability that all 10 cases will be sold that day?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.10
0.50
70
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
*3.59
Daily sales for a perishable food product are known to be 8, 9, 10, or 11 cases with probabilities
0.2, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.1, respectively. Cases not sold during the day are worthless, but cases can
only be produced in the morning before the store opens. The cost of producing one of these is $4
while the selling price is $7. If you choose to produce 10 cases in the morning to sell, what is the
probability that you will be able to meet today’s demand?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
*3.60
Daily sales for a perishable food product are known to be 8, 9, 10, or 11 cases with probabilities
0.2, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.1, respectively. Cases not sold during the day are worthless, but cases can
only be produced in the morning before the store opens. The cost of producing one of these is $4
while the selling price is $7. How many cases should you produce to maximize profit?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
*3.61
8
9
10
11
none of the above
The maximax decision criterion
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.63
8
9
10
11
none of the above
Daily sales for a perishable food product are known to be 8, 9, 10, or 11 cases with probabilities
0.2, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.1, respectively. Cases not sold during the day are worthless, but cases can
only be produced in the morning before the store opens. The cost of producing one of these is $4
while the selling price is $8. How many cases should you produce to maximize profit?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.62
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.10
0.90
minimizes the maximum opportunity loss.
maximizes the minimum outcome.
yields the best of the worst possible outcomes when the probability is favorable.
produces the alternative with the highest possible return.
none of the above
The following is a payoff table giving profits for various situations.
Alternatives
States of Nature
A
B
C
71
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
Do Nothing
120
200
100
0
140
100
120
0
120
50
180
0
What decision would an optimist make?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
Do Nothing
none of the above
ANSWER: b
3.64
The following is a payoff table giving profits for various situations.
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
Do Nothing
States of Nature
A
B
C
120
140
120
200
100
50
100
120
180
0
0
0
What decision would a pessimist make?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
Do Nothing
none of the above
72
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.65
Daily sales of a perishable food product are known to be 8, 9, 10, or 11 cases with probabilities
0.1, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.2, respectively. The cost of producing one of these is $4 while the selling
price is $7. Cases not sold during the day are sold to a food processing plant for $1 each, but
cases can only be produced in the morning before the store opens. If you wish to maximize
expected profit, how many cases should be produced each day?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.66
8
9
10
11
none of the above
The following is a payoff table giving profits for various situations.
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
Do Nothing
States of Nature
A
B
C
100 120 180
120 140 120
200 100
50
0
0
0
The probabilities for states of nature A, B, and C are 0.3, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively. If a person
selected Alternative 1, what would the expected profit be?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.67
120
133.33
126
180
none of the above
The following is a payoff table giving profits for various situations.
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
Do Nothing
States of Nature
A
B
C
100 120 180
200 100
50
120 140 120
0
0
0
73
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
The probabilities for states of nature A, B, and C are 0.3, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively. If a perfect
forecast of the future were available, what would the expected profits be?
(a) 130
(b) 160
(c) 166
(d) 36
(e) none of the above
3.68
The following is a payoff table giving profits for various situations.
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
Do Nothing
States of Nature
A
B
C
100 120
180
200 100
50
120 140
120
0
0
0
The probabilities for states of nature A, B, and C are 0.3, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively. If a perfect
forecast of the future were available, how much would expected profits increase over the current
best EMV?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.69
166
0
36
40
none of the above
Joel Turner distributes newspapers in a small town. Daily sales of the newspapers are
approximately normally distributed with a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 40. The cost
of producing these is 15 cents each, and they are sold for 35 cents each. Joel plans to use a
marginal analysis based on the normal distribution to make a decision. How many newspapers
should Joel produce?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
500.0
520.8
500.6
524.7
none of the above
74
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
*3.70
The following is an opportunity loss table.
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
States of Nature
B
C
0
90
85
50
0
110
75
80
0
A
What decision should be made based on the minimax regret criterion?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.71
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
doesn’t matter
none of the above
The following is an opportunity loss table.
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
States of Nature
A
B
C
20
100
0
150
0
50
0
40
160
What decision should be made based on the minimax regret criterion?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.72
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
State of Nature A
none of the above
The following is an opportunity loss table.
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
States of Nature
A
B
C
30
0
10
5
20
0
0
20
25
75
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
What decision should be made based on the minimax regret criterion?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.73
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
State of Nature C
none of the above
The following is an opportunity-loss table.
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
State of Nature
A
B
C
20 100
0
100
0
25
0
40
90
The probabilities for the states of nature A, B, and C are 0.3, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively. If a
person were to use the expected opportunity loss criterion, what decision would be made?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.74
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
State of Nature C
none of the above
Katie Hammond is paying her way through college by working at various odd jobs. She
contracted with the school to produce and sell programs at football games. The cost of
producing these is 50 cents each and they sell for $1.25 each. Any not sold at the game are
worthless. Demand for programs at each game is normally distributed with a mean of 2,500 and
a standard deviation of 200. How many should Katie produce for the upcoming game (round off
to the nearest unit)?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
2,550
2,580
2,500
2,700
none of the above
76
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.75
Con
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Probability
States of Nature
A
B
100
150
200
100
0.4
0.6
Based upon these probabilities, a person would select Alternative 2. Suppose there is concern
about the accuracy of these probabilities. It can be stated that Alternative 2 will remain the best
alternative as long as the probability of A is at least
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.76
0.33.
0.50.
0.40.
0.60.
none of the above
Consider the following payoff table.
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Probability
States of Nature
A
B
100
150
200
100
0.4
0.6
How much should be paid for a perfect forecast of the state of nature?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.77
170
30
10
100
none of the above
Mickey sells newspapers on a corner every day. He pays 10 cents for each of these and sells
them for 25 cents. He knows that the demand is always for 30, 40, or 50 papers, but he doesn't
know ahead of time which of these will occur. Any left at the end of the day are worthless. If he
decides to purchase 40 of these but demand is only for 30, what would his profits be?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
7.50
4.00
4.50
3.50
none of the above
3.78
left at the end of the day are sold to a paper company for 2 cents each. If he decides to purchase
40 of these but demand is only for 30, what would his profits be?
77
Mick
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.79
J. Tom Ball has developed plans for a therapy clinic for stressed-out chemical plant workers. He
has estimated that demand for services (measured in hours) will be normally distributed with a
mean of 120 hours (per month) and a standard deviation of 20. J. Tom foresees fixed monthly
expenses of $3,000. He plans to contract the work to unemployed Ph.D.s in psychology. He will
pay them $50 per hour for their time, and this is his variable cost of providing service. He will
charge $80 per hour to his clients. If J. Tom is to break even on this venture, how many hours
per month of therapy time must be demanded?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.80
3.50
3.70
7.50
4.00
none of the above
100
600
1,200
60
none of the above
Nick has plans to open some pizza restaurants, but he is not sure how many to open. He has
prepared a payoff table to help analyze the situation.
Alternatives
Open 1
Open 2
Do Nothing
States of Nature
Good
Fair
Poor
Market
Market
Market
380,000
70,000 400,000
200,000
80,000 200,000
0
0
0
78
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
As Nick does not know how his product will be received, he assumes that all three states of nature are
equally likely to occur. If he uses the equally likely criterion, what decision would he make?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.81
open 1
open 2
good market
fair market
poor market
Nick has plans to open some pizza restaurants, but he is not sure how many to open. He has
prepared a payoff table to help analyze the situation.
Alternatives
Open 1
Open 2
Do Nothing
States of Nature
Good
Fair
Poor
Market
Market
Market
380,000
70,000
400,000
200,000
80,000
200,000
0
0
0
Nick believes that there is a 40 percent chance that the market will be good, a 30 percent chance
that it will be fair, and a 30 percent chance that it will be poor. A market research firm will
analyze the market conditions and will provide a perfect forecast of the future (they provide a
money back guarantee). What is the most that should be paid for this forecast?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.82
$ 44,000
$ 53,000
$123,000
$176,000
none of the above
Harry Lender is making his first visit to Las Vegas and plans to try a new blackjack strategy. He
believes that he has a 51 percent chance of winning each hand and a 49 percent chance of losing
each hand based on this strategy. If he bets $10 on each hand, what would his expected profit
(EMV) be? Assume that, on each hand, he will either win $10 or lose $10.
(a) 4.90
(b) 5.10
(c) 0
(d) 0.20
(e) none of the above
79
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.83
An optimistic decision-making criterion is
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.84
If product demand follows a normal distribution and we want to apply marginal analysis, which
of the following do we not need to know?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.85
the mean sales estimate
the standard deviation of the sales estimate
the marginal profit
the marginal loss
the standard deviation of the profit estimate
A good decision always implies that we
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.86
maximax.
equally likely.
maximin.
decision-making under certainty.
minimax.
will obtain the best final results.
have used appropriate quantitative analysis.
have considered all alternatives.
have based the decision on all available appropriate information.
have followed a logical process.
Daily sales for submarine sandwiches are known to be 28, 29, 30, or 31 sandwiches with
probabilities of 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.1, respectively. Sandwiches not sold during the day are
worthless, and sandwiches can only be produced in the morning before the store opens. The cost
of producing one of these is $2 while the selling price is $3.50. If you wish to maximize
expected profit, how many sandwiches should be produced each day?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
31
30
29
28
none of the above
80
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.87
Daily sales for submarine sandwiches are known to be 28, 29, 30, or 31 sandwiches with
probabilities of 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.1, respectively. Sandwiches not sold during the day are
worthless, and sandwiches can only be produced in the morning before the store opens. The cost
of producing one of these is $2 while the selling price is $3.50. If you choose to produce 29
sandwiches in the morning to sell, what is the probability that you will have some sandwiches
left over when the store closes?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.88
Daily sales of submarine sandwiches are known to be 28, 29, 30, or 31 sandwiches with
probabilities of 0.1, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.2, respectively. The cost of producing one of these is $2
while the selling price is $3.50. Sandwiches not sold during the day are given to a local
homeless shelter, and you believe that you will receive $0.40 in "goodwill" for each sandwich
given to the shelter. Sandwiches can only be produced in the morning before the store opens. If
you wish to maximize expected profit, how many sandwiches should be produced each day?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.89
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.90
28
29
30
31
none of the above
Daily sales of submarine sandwiches are known to be 28, 29, 30, or 31 sandwiches with
probabilities of 0.1, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.2, respectively. The cost of producing one of these is $2
while the selling price is $3.50. Sandwiches not sold during the day are given to a local
homeless shelter, and you believe that you will incur some goodwill for each sandwich given to
the shelter. Sandwiches can only be produced in the morning before the store opens. If you wish
to maximize expected profit, for what value of "goodwill" would you produce 30 sandwiches?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
none of the above
81
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.90
Consider the following payoff table.
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Probability
States of Nature
A
B
100
150
200
100
0.4
0.6
Based upon these probabilities, a person would select Alternative 2. Suppose there is concern
about the accuracy of these probabilities. For what probability of B would one select
Alternative 1?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.91
0.33
0.50
0.40
0.60
none of the above
Consider the following payoff table.
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Probability
States of Nature
A
B
100
150
200
100
0.4
0.6
Based upon these probabilities, a person would select Alternative 2. Suppose there is concern
about the accuracy of the payoff for Alternative 2 under state of nature A. For what payoff of
Alternative 2 under state of nature A would one be indifferent between the two alternatives?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.92
160
170
175
185
none of the above
Consider the following payoff table.
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Probability
States of Nature
A
B
100
150
175
100
0.4
0.6
82
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
How much should be paid for a perfect forecast of the state of nature?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.93
Mickey sells newspapers on a corner every day. He pays 10 cents for each of these and sells
them for 25 cents. He knows that the demand is always for 30, 40, or 50 papers, but he doesn't
know ahead of time which of these will occur. Any left at the end of the day are worthless. He
purchased 40 of the papers, and at the end of the day finds that he has made a profit of $3.50.
What was demand?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
3.94
160
130
30
100
none of the above
30
40
50
There is insufficient information to solve this problem.
none of the above
Mickey sells newspapers on a corner every day. He pays 10 cents for each of these and sells
them for 25 cents. He knows that the demand is always for 30, 40, or 50 papers, but he doesn't
know ahead of time which of these will occur. Any left at the end of the day are sold to a paper
company. If he decides to purchase 40 of these but demand is only for 30, at what price must he
sell the remaining papers to the paper company to earn a profit of $3.70?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
$0.05
$0.04
$0.03
$0.02
none of the above
83
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.95
deviation of 20. J. Tom foresees fixed monthly expenses of $3,000. He will charge $80 per hour
to his clients. He plans to contract the work to unemployed Ph.D.s in psychology. What must he
pay them per hour if he wants the break-even point to be 100 hours per month?
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
*3.96
$40/hr
$50/hr
$60/hr
$70/hr
none of the above
Dr. Mac, a surgeon, must decide what mode of treatment to use on Mr. Samuels. There are three
modes of treatment, Mode A, B, and C; and three possible states of nature: 1.Treatment succeeds
and patient leads a normal life, 2. Patient survives treatment but is permanently disabled, and 3.
Patient fails to survive treatment. Dr. Mac has prepared the decision table below. What mode of
treatment maximizes the expected value?
Treatment
Mode
Normal Life
A
$1,000,000
P(outcome)
.5
B
$3,000,000
P(outcome)
.5
C
$10,000,000
P(outcome)
.4
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
Outcome
Disability
-$2,000,000
.2
-$2,500,000
.3
-$5,000,000
.4
Mode A
Mode B
Mode C
All three treatments are equally desirable.
none of the above
84
Non-Survival
-$500,000
.3
-$500,000
.2
-$600,000
.2
J. Tom Ball
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
PROBLEMS
3.97
A concessionaire for the local ballpark has developed a table of conditional values for the various
alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd).
Alternatives
Large Inventory
Average Inventory
Small Inventory
STATES OF NATURE
(size of crowd)
Large
Average
Small
$22,000
$12,000 $2,000
$15,000
$12,000
$6,000
$ 9,000
$ 6,000
$5,000
If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.30 for a large crowd, 0.50 for an
average crowd, and 0.20 for a small crowd, determine:
(a) the alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV)
(b) the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
3.98
A concessionaire for the local ballpark has developed a table of conditional values for the various
alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd).
Alternatives
Large Inventory
Average Inventory
Small Inventory
States of Nature
(size of crowd)
Large
Average Small
$22,000 $12,000 $2,000
$15,000 $12,000
$6,000
$ 9,000 $ 6,000
$5,000
If the probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.30 for a large crowd, 0.50 for an
average crowd, and 0.20 for a small crowd, determine:
(a) the opportunity loss table
(b) minimum expected opportunity loss (EOL)
85
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.99
Given the following conditional value table, determine the appropriate decision under
uncertainty using:
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
maximax
maximin
equally likely
minimax
Alternatives
Large Plant
Small Plant
Overtime
Do Nothing
States of Nature
Very Favorable
Average
Unfavorable
Market
Market
Market
$275,000 $100,000
$150,000
$200,000
60,000
$ 10,000
$100,000 $ 40,000
$ 1,000
0
0
0
86
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.100
The ABC Co. is considering a new consumer product. They believe that there is a probability of
0.4 that the XYZ Co. will come out with a competitive product. If ABC adds an assembly line
for the product and XYZ does not follow with a competitive product, their expected profit is
$40,000; if they add an assembly line and XYZ does follow, they still expect $10,000 profit. If
ABC adds a new plant addition and XYZ does not produce a competitive product, they expect a
profit of $600,000; if XYZ does compete for this market, ABC expects a loss of $100,000.
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
3.101
determine the EMV of each decision
determine the EOL of each decision
compare the results of a and b
calculate the EVPI
The ABC Co. is considering a new consumer product. They have no idea whether or not the
XYZ Co. will come out with a competitive product. If ABC adds an assembly line for the
product and XYZ does not follow with a competitive product, their expected profit is $40,000; if
they add an assembly line and XYZ does follow, they still expect $10,000 profit. If ABC adds a
new plant addition and XYZ does not produce a competitive product, they expect a profit of
$600,000; if XYZ does compete for this market, ABC expects a loss of $100,000.
Calculate Hurwicz’s criterion of realism using ’s of 0.7, 0.3, and 0.1.
*3.102 Barbour Electric is considering the introduction of a new product. This product can be produced
in one of several ways: (a) using the present assembly line at a cost of $25 per unit, (b) using the
current assembly line after it has been overhauled (at a cost of $10,000) with a cost of $22 per
unit; and (c) on an entirely new assembly line (costing $30,000) designed especially for the new
product with a per unit cost of $20. Barbour is worried, however, about the impact of
competition. If no competition occurs, they expect to sell 15,000 units the first year. With
competition, the number of units sold is expected to drop to 9,000. At the moment, their best
estimate is that there is a 40% chance of competition. They have decided to make their decision
based on the first year sales.
(a) develop the decision table (EMV)
(b) develop a decision table (EOL)
(c) what should they do?
3.103
A company is considering expansion of its current facility to meet increasing demand. A major
expansion would cost $500,000, while a minor expansion would cost $200,000. If demand is
high in the future, the major expansion would result in an additional profit of $800,000, but if
demand is low then there would be a loss of $500,000. If demand is high, the minor expansion
will result in an increase in profits of $200,000, but if demand is low then there is a loss of
$100,000. The company has the option of not expanding. If there is a 50 percent chance the
demand will be high, what should the company do to maximize the long-run average profits?
87
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.104
The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible stocking decisions and
various demand situations.
Alternatives
Stock 12
Stock 13
Stock 14
States of Nature
Demand
Low Medium High
800
800
800
700
900
900
600
800
1000
Based on current information, it is believed that the probabilities of the three demand states are
each 1/3. If you wished to minimize the expected opportunity loss, what decision should be
made and what would the minimum expected opportunity loss be?
3.105
The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives and
various levels of demand.
States of Nature
Demand
Alternatives
Low Medium High
Alternative 1
80
120
140
Alternative 2
90
90
90
Alternative 3
50
70
150
The probability of a low demand is 0.4, while the probability of a medium and high demand is
each 0.3.
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
What decision would an optimist make?
What decision would a pessimist make?
What is the highest possible expected monetary value?
Calculate the expected value of perfect information for this situation.
EVPI = 117
3.106
Norman L. Flowers holds the exclusive university contract for donut sales. The demand (based
on historical records) appears to follow the following distribution:
Daily Demand
(Dozens)
4
5
6
7
8
Probability
0.15
0.25
0.30
0.25
0.05
88
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
The cost of producing these is $1.20 per dozen while the selling price is $4.20 per dozen. Based
on a marginal analysis of this situation, how many donuts should Norman produce each day?
3.107
Orders for clothing from a particular manufacturer for this year’s Christmas shopping season
must be placed in February. The cost per unit for a particular dress is $20 while the anticipated
selling price is $50. Anything not sold during the season can be sold for $15 to a discount store.
Demand is projected to be either 50, 60, or 70 units. There is a 40 percent chance that demand
will be 50 units, a 50 percent chance that demand will be 60 units, and a 10 percent chance that
demand will be 70 units. If the company decides to use the EMV criterion, how many units
should be ordered in February?
3.108
A concessionaire for the local ballpark has developed a table of conditional values for the various
alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd).
Alternatives
Large Inv.
Average Inv.
Small Inv.
States of Nature
(size of crowd)
Large
Average Small
$22,000 $12,000
X
$15,000 $12,000 $6,000
$ 9,000 $ 6,000 $5,000
The probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.30 for a large crowd, 0.50 for an
average crowd, and 0.20 for a small crowd. For what payoff, X, would one choose to make the
Average Investment?
3.109
The ABC Co. is considering a new consumer product. They believe that the XYZ Co. may come
out with a competing product. If ABC adds an assembly line for the product and XYZ does not
follow with a competitive product, their expected profit is $40,000; if they add an assembly line
and XYZ does follow, they still expect $10,000 profit. If ABC adds a new plant addition and
XYZ does not produce a competitive product, they expect a profit of $600,000; if XYZ does
compete for this market, ABC expects a loss of $100,000. For what value of probability that
XYZ will offer a competing product will ABC be indifferent between the alternatives?
3.110
A company is considering expansion of its current facility to meet increasing demand. A major
expansion would cost $500,000, while a minor expansion would cost $200,000. If demand is
high in the future, the major expansion would result in an additional profit of $800,000, but if
demand is low, then there would be a loss of $500,000. If demand is high, the minor expansion
will result in an increase in profits of $200,000, but if demand is low, then there is a loss of
$100,000. The company has the option of not expanding. For what probability of a high demand
will the company be indifferent between the two expansion alternatives?
89
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.111
Orders for clothing from a particular manufacturer for this year’s Christmas shopping season
must be placed in February. The cost per unit for a particular dress is $20 while the anticipated
selling price is $50. Demand is projected to be 50, 60, or 70 units. There is a 40 percent chance
that demand will be 50 units, a 50 percent chance that demand will be 60 units, and a 10 percent
chance that demand will be 70 units. The company believes they can sell any leftover goods to a
discount store, but they are uncertain as to the price the discount store will pay. For what price
to be paid by the discount store would they order 70 cases of dresses in February?
90
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
SHORT ANSWER/ESSAY
3.112
List the six steps in decision-making.
3.113
Briefly describe decision theory.
3.114
Describe what is meant by a good decision.
91
Fundamentals of Decision Theory Models  CHAPTER 3
3.115
Describe what is meant by a bad decision.
3.116
Briefly describe decision-making under certainty.
3.117
Briefly describe decision-making under risk.
3.118
Briefly describe decision-making under uncertainty.
3.119
List the five decision criteria for making decisions under uncertainty.
*3.120 Briefly discuss why we distinguish between decision-making under risk and decision-making
under uncertainty (in neither case are we able to predict the outcome).
.
92