Brief 1 December 2011 Changes in Prince George’s County: 2000 through 2010 Figure 1. Prince George’s County Districts NeighborhoodInfo DC, an Urban Institute project, has amassed a data warehouse measuring the health and vitality of Washington, DC neighborhoods. This fact sheet is the first publication in our effort to extend our analysis to the council districts in Prince George’s County, Maryland. The following information summarizes selected population and socioeconomic changes in Prince George’s County between 2000 and 2010 using the latest tract-level 2010 U.S. Census population data and the 2005–2009 American Community Survey. We provide countywide averages, as well as the individual changes in the county’s nine districts (figure 1). Summary of Findings During the last decade, the following occurred in Prince George’s County: Moderate population growth The Hispanic population more than doubled, the black population increased by 10 percent, and the white population declined Fewer children live in the county Education levels rose across the county Incomes remained flat http://www.neighborhoodinfodc.org/ Population Grew Moderately Over the Last Decade The population of Prince George’s County grew 7.7 percent between 2000 and 2010, from 801,515 to 863,420 people, respectively (figure 2). In comparison, the Washington metropolitan area’s population grew 16.4 percent. All districts but one experienced population growth between 2000 and 2010. The largest gain was in District 6, which grew 17.6 percent over the decade. Other areas with above average growth included District 1 (13.6 percent), District 3 (11.6 percent), District 9 (10.7 percent), and District 4 (10.3 percent). The only district that saw a decrease in the overall population was District 7, which lost 2.1 percent of its population. Figure 2. Total Population, 2000 to 2010, by District 120,000 2000 2010 105,336 100,000 99,076 98,324 86,84 8 92,075 88,773 88,099 94,154 85,346 94,170 91,201 89,549 90,586 88,659 100,928 90,698 89,946 91,168 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 District Source: U.S. Decennial Census 2000 and 2010. 2 Hispanic Population More than Doubled and White Population Declined Prince George’s County remains a predominantly African American county; however, the number and share of Hispanic residents increased substantially over the decade (figure 3). The Hispanic population increased by 127 percent (or 72,159 people) and the non-Hispanic black population increased more modestly by 10 percent (or 50,365 people) (figure 3). Meanwhile, the non-Hispanic white population fell by 34 percent (or 66,369 people). Figure 3. Prince George’s County 2000-2010 by Race/Ethnicity Prince George'sPopulation County Population, 2000 - 2010, by Race/Ethnicity 548,439 African-American 498,074 128,853 White 195,222 2010 2000 128,972 Hispanic 56,813 57,156 Other 51,406 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Source: U.S. Decennial Census 2000 and 2010. 3 Hispanic Population More than Doubled, White Population Declined (continued) The non-Hispanic black population increased from 62 percent of the total county population in 2000 to 64 percent in 2010. The Hispanic population grew from 7 percent of the total county population in 2000 to 15 percent in 2010. The share of non-Hispanic whites fell from 24 percent to 15 percent. The share of other races increased from 6 percent to 7 percent. Figure 4. Race/Ethnicity, as a Percentage of the Total County Population, 2010 7% Black 15% White Hispanic 15% 64% Other Source: U.S. Decennial Census 2000 and 2010 4 Hispanic Population More than Doubled, White Population Declined (continued) In each district, the Hispanic population increased, mirroring the overall county trend. Changes in the non-Hispanic black population fluctuated across the districts, with the strongest growth in Districts 1, 4, and 9. The population of non-Hispanic whites decreased consistently across all districts. Figure 5. Race, as a Percentage of the Total District Population, 2000 100% 11% 7% 9% 9% 90% 80% 4% 10% 7% 2% 1% 4% 3% 1% 4% 6% 12% 7% 2% 5% 2% 13% 11% 30% 34% 70% 60% 36% 46% 51% 14% 50% 93% 40% 83% 79% 78% 30% 58% 48% 20% 45% 36% 36% 10% 0% 1 2 3 4 African-American 5 District White 6 Hispanic 7 8 9 2% 5% 2% 7% 6% Other Figure 6. Race, as a Percentage of the Total District Population, 2010 100% 5% 13% 9% 9% 90% 8% 80% 4% 3% 5% 16% 8% 7% 24% 19% 4% 6% 5% 17% 47% 70% 34% 60% 26% 26% 50% 91% 87% 10% 40% 77% 74% 72% 30% 20% 43% 49% 38% 41% 2 3 10% 0% 1 4 African-American 5 District White 6 Hispanic 7 8 9 Other Source: U.S. Decennial Census 2000 and 2010 5 Fewer Children Lived in the County As a result of an aging population, an increase in the number of childless adults, or both, the population 18 years of age or older increased by 12 percent between 2000 and 2010 (or 70,428 people), while the child population (under age 18) decreased by 4 percent (or 8,523 people) (figure 7). Figure 7. Prince George’s County Population, 2000 to 2010, by Age 900,000 623,085 800,000 586,993 700,000 600,000 Population 18 Years or Older Population Under 18 Years Old 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 214,522 211,901 2000 2010 100,000 0 Source: U.S. Decennial Census 2000 and 2010 6 County Home to Fewer Children (continued) While the county had fewer children by 2010, not all districts experienced the same trend (figure 8). Declines were concentrated in four districts: 2, 5, 7, and 8. The change in the child population in the remaining districts was flat or grew, however, with substantial growth in Districts 1, 3, and 4. No districts experienced a decrease in the adult population. Districts 6 and 9 saw significant increases. Figure 8. Percent Change in Adult and Youth Population, 2000 to 2010, by District 20.0% Population Under 18 Years Old Population 18 Years or Older 16.4% 15.0% 10.0% 12.9% 9.6% 8.9% 7.8% 6.1% 6.2% 4.9% 5.0% 6.1% 5.2% 3.2% 3.1% 1.9% 0.6% -0.3% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 County Total -1.2% -5.0% -7.3% -8.3% -10.0% -11.2% -10.2% -15.0% Source: U.S. Decennial Census 2000 and 2010 7 Education Levels Rose across the County Between 2000 and 2005-2009, Prince George’s County experienced modest, statistically significant gains in its residents’ education levels. This could be due to an increase in the education levels of existing residents or to higher education levels of new residents, or both. The data available for this analysis did not permit a more in depth look at this issue. The county experienced a decrease in the percentage of residents ages 25 and older without a high school diploma (15 percent to 14 percent) and without a college degree (58 percent to 56 percent), while the percentage of those with a college degree increased from 27 to 30 percent. Figure 9. Population Change, 2000 to 2005-2009 by District and Education Level (Age 25+) 60.0% 57% 56% 50.0% 40.0% 27% 30.0% 20.0% 15% 29% 2000 2005-2009 13% 10.0% 0.0% No High School Diploma* High School Diploma, but no Bachelors* Bachelors or Above* Source: U.S. Decennial Census 2000, American Community Survey 2005-2009 5-Year Estimates *Statistically significant differences at a 95 percent confidence level (p<.05). 8 Education Levels Rose across the County (continued) While the majority of districts fit this mold, Districts 2 and 3 saw increases in the population without a high school diploma (18 percent and 20 percent, respectively), while the percentage of people age 25 and older with a high school diploma or college degree remained flat. Districts 5, 6, 7 and 9 experienced the most dramatic changes in education levels in the county. Each of these districts saw an increase of 25 percent or more of the population age 25 and older with a bachelor’s degree, accompanied by decreases of more than 10 percent of the population without a high school diploma. Figure 10. Population Change, 2000 to 2005-2009, by District and Education Level (Age 25+) 40% * * * 30% Total Population 25+ No High School Diploma * High School Diploma, but no Bachelors District 20% * * * * * * * * 10% * * * * * * * * * 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total * 0% Bachelors and Above -10% * * * -20% -30% * Source: U.S. Decennial Census 2000, American Community Survey 2005-2009 5-Year Estimates *Statistically significant differences at a 95 percent confidence level (p<.05). 9 Incomes Remained Flat At the county level, average household income remained flat from 2000 to 2005-2009 at just under $84,000 per household (figure 11). Average household incomes for each period were adjusted to constant 2009 dollars using the consumer price index. A few individual districts saw significant changes. Districts 5 and 9 experienced gains and Districts 3 and 8 experience losses, while the remainder moved little in either direction. Figure 11. Change in Real Average Household Income, 2000 to 2005-2009, by District $120,000 $104,239 $102,398 $100,441 $100,000 $98,220 $96,087 $97,905 $92,615 $83,710 $83,820 $86,056 $83,803 $83,185 $81,902 $77,668 $80,000 $75,836 $72,111 $64,784 $62,486 $63,108 $62,371 $60,000 2000 (2009$) 2005-2009 (2009$) $40,000 $20,000 $0 County Average 1 2 3* 4 5* 6 7* 8* 9* District Source: U.S. Decennial Census 2000, American Community Survey 2005-2009 5-Year Estimates * District-level change is statistically significant at a 95 percent confidence level (p<.05). 10 Change by District Type We categorized the nine districts into four distinct groupings based on the population and socio-economic demographic changes that occurred between 2000 and 2010. Indicators were created from the 2000 and 2010 US Census population data and tract-level data from the 2005-2009 American Community Survey. Figure 12: Prince George’s County District Groupings We recognize that these categorizations ignore some differences between the individual districts, but they do provide a useful framework for describing and analyzing the changes in Prince George’s County over the past decade. Group 1: Districts 1, 4, and 6 Large increases in the overall population, mostly due to the adult population, although District 1 also experienced a large increase in numbers of children under 18 years old. Significant increase in both the African-American and Hispanic populations; decrease in the white population. No change in real income. Increase in resident education levels. 11 Group 2: Districts 2 and 3 Moderate to large increases in the population, due almost entirely to increases in the adult population. Population increases driven by large increases in the Hispanic population and corresponding decreases (or no change) in the African-American and white populations. Small to moderate decrease in real income. Decrease in resident education levels. Group 3: Districts 5 and 9 The overall population increased slowly in District 5 and at a faster pace in District 9. The adult population increased significantly, while the child population decreased. Moderate to large increases in the Hispanic population; no change in the African-American population in District 5, but a large increase in District 9. Positive changes in real income. Increase in resident education levels. Group 4: Districts 7 and 8 Stagnant overall population with small increases in the adult population counterbalanced by large decreases in the child population. A moderate decrease in the white and African-American populations, with a small increase in the Hispanic population. Moderate declines in real income. Increase in resident education levels. Neighborhood Info DC—a project of the Urban Institute and the Washington DC Local Initiatives Support Corporation (LISC) (202) 261-5760 / info@neighborhoodinfodc.org Jennifer Comey, Graham MacDonald, and Zach McDade contributed to this fact sheet. Copyright © December 2011, The Urban Institute. All rights reserved. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, LISC, their trustees, or their funders. NeighborhoodInfo DC works to support community organizations, neighborhood residents, and government as they work to improve the quality of life for people throughout the District of Columbia. NeighborhoodInfo DC receives funding from local and national sources, who provide general support and fund specific projects and products. Current and previous funders include the Annie E. Casey Foundation, DC Action for Children, Fannie Mae, the Meyer Foundation, the Morris & Gwendolyn Cafritz Foundation, the Washington Area Women's Foundation, and the World Bank.