BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions Dr. Stephen Malcolm, Department of Biological Sciences • D. POPULATION & COMMUNITY DYNAMICS • Week 11. Population models 2: – Lecture summary: • Distribution and abundance - examples • Dynamics of predator-prey cycles – Lotka-Volterra model – Coupled oscillations – Density dependence – Self limitation – Functional responses BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 1 2. Animal Influences on Plants: • Negative or positive impacts. • Can influence distribution and abundance of plant populations. – E.g. Seed predation in goldenbush, Haplopappus squarrosus (Fig. 10-1): • Common inland and rare by the coast. • Coastal plants: – No signs of physiological constraints or suppression of growth. – Produce more flowers per plants and so seed production and seedling recruitment should be higher (expected). BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 2 3. Seed predation of goldenbush: • Svata Louda observed that flower and seed predators were present. • Experimentally showed (with insecticide applications) that exclusion increased seedling density most in coastal populations of goldenbush (Fig. 10-2). BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 3 4. Wood Rats and Saguaro cacti: • Observation 1: – Saguaro are widely scattered throughout the Sonoran desert (probably evenly distributed rather than random). – Hypothesis 1: • Cacti compete for limited water resources. • Observation 2: – Massive density independent mortality after fruit eating birds distribute 40-60 million saguaro seeds/hectare. – Only 160-240 thousand germinate. – Most seeds killed by freezing and drought. – No effect of competition. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 4 5. Wood Rats and Saguaro cacti: – Hypothesis 2: • Rodent seed predators influence saguaro distribution. • Observation 3: – More seedlings survived in the shade under very thorny plants that may exclude seed & seedling predators such as rodents & rabbits. – Experiment: • Caged rodent exclosures showed that more saguaro seedlings survived when rodent predators were excluded (see Fig. 10-4): – 1.9% of 800 caged seedlings survived after 10 years. – All uncaged seedlings died. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 5 6. Giant lobelias, rock hyraxes and elephants in Kenya: • Normally, 2m high lobelias and senecios on slopes of Mount Kenya (Fig. 10-5) grow well and suffer little herbivore-related mortality. • Occasionally, elephants forage up to 4000 m altitude and destroy large numbers of plants. • Above that altitude, rock hyraxes (distant, rabbit-sized relative of elephants) have minimal impact on plant populations. • But under drought conditions, hyraxes have a large impact and selectively kill slow-growing individuals. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 6 7. Giant lobelias: – During first year of drought: • 36% of plants with growth rates below population mean were killed. • 23% above the growth rate mean were killed. – Resulted in high population mortality. – Curious result! • Contrary to predictions of Growth-Differentiation Balance (GDB) hypothesis. • Contrary to predictions of Resource Availability (RA) hypothesis. • May depend upon the shape of the growth frequency distribution curve! BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 7 8. Flower-hummingbird mutualisms: • Linhart & Feinsinger (1980) hypothesized that specialized, flowers with a deep corolla would be more affected by pollinator limitation on Tobago than on Trinidad. Trinidad Tobago Hummingbirdpollinated plants 34 spp. 31 spp. Short-billed Long-billed hummingbirds hummingbirds --------------- 11 --------------5 0 • Thus the more specialized flower was affected negatively by a reduced mutualist assemblage on Tobago. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 8 9. Flower-hummingbird mutualisms: • Dye experiments showed that far less pollen was moved among deep-corolla flowers on Tobago than on Trinidad (Fig. 10-6). BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 9 10. Plant influences on animals: • Resource Concentration Hypothesis (Root, 1973): – Specialist insect herbivores should: • “favor high densities of host plants over low densities because they will find and breed on dense patches more easily than on patches with few plants.” • Enemies Hypothesis: – “predicts that parasitoids should control herbivores more effectively in mixed than in pure stands of hosts.” BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 10 11. Tests of hypotheses: • Difficult to test and separate. • Bach (1980) showed that host plant density had little impact on density of a specialist beetle herbivore (Fig. 10-7). • Parasites also had little influence on herbivores in high or low host densities (Fig. 10-7). • But the presence of other plant species did influence beetle density with much lower densities on cucumbers mixed with corn and broccoli (Fig. 10-7). • Shading may make cucumbers less palatable in polycultures: – Agrees with both GDB and RA hypotheses. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 11 12. Population cycles: • Famous Hudson's Bay Company data: – 90 years of snowshoe hare-lynx populations – Show approximately 10 year cycles thought to be driven by lynx (Fig. 10-8) in "top-down" control. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 12 13. Cycles - cause and effect: • Little evidence that lynx cause population fluctuations in hares. • Lynx populations simply influenced by abundance of all prey and have little impact on prey populations. • Instead, quantity and quality of food have greater impact on snowshoe hare populations. • Compare with the red grouse in Britain: – Argument over regulation by food (bottom-up) versus parasites and fox predation (top-down). BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 13 14. Predation and food shortage hypotheses: BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 14 15. Snowshoe hare requirements: • Each day of winter, need 3000 g of woody browse from willow, aspen, rose, hazel, saskatoon and scrub birch. • Abundance of these resources influences hare populations dramatically. • Availability of all species also important: – Abundance of one species also led to declines in hare populations. • Thus starvation and poisoning must both be important to snowshoe hares. • Plants can also induce chemical defenses and “delayed induced defense” becomes increasingly important as hare populations increase. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 15 16. Population Dynamics of Predation: • 2 approaches to comparing models with reality: – 1. Discrete, difference equations of Nicholson & Bailey (1935): • as in Begon, Mortimer & Thompson (1996). – 2. Continuous, differential equations of Lotka & Volterra: • as in Begon, Harper & Townsend (1996) • Mass action model to which logistic limitation can be added BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 16 17. Lotka-Volterra model of prey-predator dynamics: • For prey: – dN/dt = rN - consumption rate of prey, or, – dN/dt = rN - aPN • where N = prey population, P = predator (consumer) population, and a = attack rate. • For predators (consumers): – dP/dt = predator birth - qP (death), – dP/dt = faPN - qP • where q = predator mortality rate (starve exponentially in absence of prey where dP/dt = -qP) or, • (predator birth = consumption rate of prey (aPN) x efficiency f of turning this into offspring births) BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 17 18. Zero isoclines for the Lotka-Volterra model: – Prey zero isocline occurs when: • dN/dt = 0, or rN = aPN, and so P = r/a – Predator (consumer) isocline is at: • dP/dt = 0, faPN = qP, or N = q/fa – Isoclines are shown together in Fig. 10.2: • Begon, Harper & Townsend (1996). – Model generates: • Coupled oscillations (10.2d) that are unrealistically 'neutrally stable' as opposed to, • More realistic set of 'stable limit cycles' with tendency to return to the original cycle after disturbance. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 18 19. Prey-predator cycles: • Coupled oscillations may or may not be a product of preypredator interactions alone, but may already exist in the absence of predators (Fig. 10.4). • “Bottom-up” (from food) and “Top-down” (from natural enemies) influences on population cycling in the northern American community of plants, hares, grouse and predators (Fig. 10.5). • Cycles can also show delayed density-dependent mortality (Fig. 10.6) in which mortality appears to be density independent, but when plotted as a time series it spirals inwards anticlockwise for damped oscillations. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 19 20. Self-limitation: • Inclusion of intraspecific competition or mutual interference in the LotkaVolterra model: – This can include a logistic term in the basic model! – Intraspecific effects will change the unrealistically vertical and horizontal zero isoclines (Fig. 10.2), which are densityindependent, to more realistic, densitydependent shapes as in Fig. 10.7. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 20 21. Inclusion of competition: • Combined effects of intraspecific competition and predation are shown in Fig. 10.7: – More realistic predator and prey zero isoclines constrained by intraspecific competition (self limitation). – Assume linear functional response (shape of curve of prey eaten as prey density increases). – Oscillations no longer neutrally stable! • Strong intraspecific competition can eliminate predator prey oscillations completely (biii), or weak competition can dampen oscillations. • More efficient predation increases amplitude of oscillations and interaction is less stable (bi). • Higher predator densities generate greater instability. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 21 22. Effect of efficient predation: • Efficient predation with an aggregative response, in heterogeneous environments, generates stability (Fig. 10.8) BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 22 23. Type 2 Functional response and the Lotka-Volterra predation model: – Predator functional responses to prey density also modify Lotka-Volterra model in a similar way: • Type 2 functional responses (rising at a decelerating rate to an asymptote): – Prey isocline is humped (Fig. 10.10). – At low prey density this can lead to instability and extinction: » Unlikely because predator handling times have to be very long. – At high prey density this leads to damped oscillations and stability: » The “Allee effect” » Disproportionately low recruitment at low population density » Important in conservation and resource management). BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 23 24. Effect of type 3 functional response: • Type 3 functional response (sigmoidal) in which predators are less efficient at low prey density is shown in Fig. 10.8 (ii), or more efficient at low prey density (i). BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 24 25. Effect of switching: • But where predator switches effectively from prey to prey its abundance may be independent of prey density (Fig. 10.9). BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 25 Figure 10-1: Observed and expected frequencies of goldenbush across a transect. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 26 Figure 10-4: Survival of caged and uncaged saguaro cactus seedlings BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 27 Figure 10-7: Striped cucumber beetles on cucumbers in low- and high-density monocultures & polycultures. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 28 Figure 10.2 (Begon et al. 1996): Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 29 Figure 10.4 (Begon et al. 1996): Dynamics of flour mothparasitoid interactions in (a,b) deep medium, (c,d) shallow medium. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 30 Figure 10.5 (Begon et al. 1996): Fluctuations in relative biomass of major wildlife components in Alberta. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 31 Figure 10.6 (Begon et al. 1996): Delayed densitydependence; (a,b,c,d) host-parasitoid model; (e) field data for pupal predation of winter moths. BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 32 Figure 10.10 (Begon et al. 1996): Effect of a ‘humped’ prey isocline (from type 2 functional response or an Allee effect). BIOS 5970: Plant-Herbivore Interactions - Dr. S. Malcolm. Week 11: Population models 2 Slide - 33