Portfolio Solutions Monthly February 2014 For professional investors only Schroders Portfolio Solutions Monthly February 2014 Markets Dashboard Yield changes (bps): Jan 14 to Feb 14 10 year 20 year 50 year Risk asset market changes: Jan 14 to Feb 14 FI Gilt yield +3 +1 +2 MSCI All World +4.1% IL Gilt yield +5 +3 +1 FTSE 100 +4.6% RPI swap -1 -2 -2 5yr Euro CDS -11 bps FI Gilt / Swap spread +1 -3 +1 1 year 90% FTSE 100 put Source: Schroders, 28 February 2014. -0.5% Source: Schroders, Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, 28 February 2014. Change in put is the outright change in premium. Funding level dashboard 1 year reference funding level progression 1 month attribution of funding level change 130% 119% 120% 117% 110% 115% 100% 113% 90% Feb 13 May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Jan funding level: 114% Feb 14 Nominal rates: +0.1% Real rates: +0.2% Growth assets: +4.2% Feb funding level: 118% Source: Schroders, Bloomberg, 28 February 2014. Please refer to the supporting notes for further details. February Events Investment Opportunities January CPI printed at 1.9%, below the Bank of England 2.0% target for the first time since November 2009. The Monetary Policy Committee abandoned its forward guidance linking monetary policy to unemployment. c£1.9bn 3 3/4% 2052 Outright Auction c£10bn of issuance across fixed interest and index linked gilts between 5-10 year maturities Long dated inflation rates remain at close to 12 month lows potentially offering attractive levels for implementing inflation hedging strategies. Long-dated real yields have been fairly stable over recent months. Investors monitoring real yield levels to increase coverage may benefit from reassessing their trigger levels. Equity implied volatility has continued to trend downwards hitting close to 12 month lows. This may present opportunities to those seeking to purchase protection. Contact us The Schroders Portfolio Solutions team partners with investors to provide risk management strategies across all major financial markets. Please contact us at PortfolioSolutions@schroders.com if you would like further information on how Schroders can help manage your Scheme’s exposure to risk. Portfolio Solutions Monthly February 2014 For professional investors only Market data: LDI markets One year range •L H• Month One end Month 28 Feb 31 Jan 2014 2014 Three One Months Year 30 Nov 28 Feb 2013 2013 Month end curve (LHS): Nominal rates - Gilt markets 5 Year 1.84% 1.83% 1.68% 0.92% 10 Year 2.89% 2.86% 2.92% 2.13% 20 Year 3.62% 3.61% 3.71% 3.30% 30 Year 3.72% 3.71% 3.82% 3.71% 50 Year 3.54% 3.53% 3.64% 3.62% 1 Month change (RHS, Bps): 5.0% 40 2.5% 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 0.0% -40 Real rates - Index-linked gilt markets 5 Year -0.99% -1.10% -1.20% -2.10% 10 Year -0.20% -0.25% -0.29% -1.10% 20 Year 0.07% 0.04% 0.02% -0.21% 30 Year 0.05% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 50 Year 0.00% -0.01% -0.06% 0.01% 5 Year 3.03% 3.10% 3.07% 3.29% 10 Year 3.25% 3.27% 3.32% 3.36% 20 Year 3.57% 3.58% 3.68% 3.62% 30 Year 3.64% 3.64% 3.74% 3.71% 50 Year 3.62% 3.64% 3.73% 3.76% 5 Year -0.14% -0.14% -0.10% -0.14% 10 Year 0.01% 0.00% 0.08% 0.03% 20 Year 0.20% 0.23% 0.26% 0.19% 30 Year 0.30% 0.29% 0.33% 0.29% 50 Year 0.22% 0.20% 0.29% 0.13% 2.0% 25 0.0% 0 -2.0% -25 0 10 20 30 40 50 Inflation rates - RPI swap market 5.0% 15 2.5% 0 0.0% -15 0 10 20 30 40 50 Nominal gilt curve vs swap curve Global bond markets 15 0.0% 0 -0.5% -15 0 10 20 30 40 50 Forward gilt curves 10 Year Bund 1.62% 1.66% 1.69% 1.45% 10 Yr Gilt / Bund Spread 1.08% 1.03% 1.06% 0.51% 10 Year US Treasury 2.65% 2.64% 2.74% 1.88% 10 Yr Gilt / US Spread 0.07% 0.06% 0.02% 0.10% 5 year IG CDS - Euro 71 82 79 117 5 year IG CDS - US 64 72 70 88 Money markets 5.0% 2.5% Gilt curve 3 yrs fwd 1 yr fwd 5 yrs fwd 0.0% 0 Currency rates 10 20 30 40 50 28 Feb 31 Jan 30 Nov 28 Feb 2014 2014 2013 2013 Bank of England base 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% GBP / USD SONIA 0.42% 0.43% 0.42% 0.40% GBP / EUR 1.21 1.22 1.20 1.16 3m Libor 0.52% 0.52% 0.52% 0.51% GBP / JPY 170.4 167.7 167.7 140.3 3y20y 5y20y 3y30y 5y30y Interest rate swaptions as at month end: 1y20y 1.67 1.64 1.64 ATM* Forward Par swap rate 3.44% 3.69% 3.80% 3.61% 3.67% ATM* Implied volatility 64.6 68.9 66.6 60.7 60.7 Source: Schroders, Bloomberg, 28 February 2014. *At the money 2 0.5% 1.52 Portfolio Solutions Monthly February 2014 For professional investors only Market data: Risk management strategies One year range •L H• Month end 28 Feb 2014 One Month 31 Jan 2014 Three One Months Year 30 Nov 28 Feb 2013 2013 MSCI All World 194 186 191 170 FTSE 100 6,810 6,510 6,651 6,361 S&P 500 1,859 1,783 1,806 1,515 Euro Stoxx 50 3,149 3,014 3,087 2,634 Nikkei 225 14,841 14,915 15,662 11,559 Equity indices MSCI All World Total Return (re-based to 100) 120 100 80 Feb 13 May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 Equity option market indicators (FTSE 100, 1 year) ATM* Implied volatility 13.6% 15.4% 14.8% 14.3% Skew (110 - 90) 4.1% 4.3% 3.9% 4.3% ATM implied 1 year volatility 20.0% Skew (110 vol - 90 vol) 5.0% 15.0% 4.0% 10.0% Feb 13 May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 3.0% Feb 13 May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 Equity risk management strategy indicators (FTSE 100 total return, spot prices) Zero cost put spread collar call strike (70% / 90%) 109.3% 90% Put Zero cost collar call strike (90% Put) 1 yr 2.2% 107.9% 3 yr 5.7% 115.8% 123.3% 95% Put Zero cost collar call strike (95% Put) Zero cost put spread collar call strike (70% / 95%) 1 yr 3.4% 104.7% 105.7% 3 yr 7.2% 111.8% 117.5% NB - one year range indicators for equity risk management strategies are based on month end values for the past 7 months. Source: Schroders, Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, 28 February 2014. *At the money About us The Schroders Portfolio Solutions Team partners with investors to provide risk management strategies across all major financial markets. The team structures and executes physical and derivative based strategies to manage the exposure to global equity and fixed income markets. These solutions draw on the full opportunity set of exchange traded and OverThe-Counter derivatives. To help manage interest and inflation rate risk, Schroders Portfolio Solutions offers a comprehensive and fully flexible solution utilising segregated solutions (encompassing physical bonds, swaps, swaption and synthetic gilt based strategies), as well as the Schroder Matching Plus pooled fund solution. We also provide funding level and market based trigger monitoring and execution for both pooled and segregated solutions. Clients can access these solutions under directed or discretionary mandates. 3 Portfolio Solutions Monthly February 2014 For professional investors only Notes The funding level dashboard shows the funding level progression and attribution of funding level change of a Reference Pension Scheme. This Reference Pension Scheme has a liability duration of around 20 years and assumes the liability is linked 50% to real interest rates and 50% to nominal rates. The assets are assumed to have a beta of 0.75 to global equity markets. This enables the reader to observe the scale of component changes. No allowance for the impact of the progression of time on liabilities is included in the funding level dashboard. Funding level progression is presented on a rolling 12 month basis, indexed to an initial funding level of 100%. Important Information For professional investors only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of the Portfolio Solutions Team at Schroders, and do not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. This newsletter is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroder Investment Management Limited (SIM) does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. The forecasts stated in the newsletter are the result of statistical modelling, based on a number of assumptions. Forecasts are subject to a high level of uncertainty regarding future economic and market factors that may affect actual future performance. The forecasts are provided to you for information purposes as at today's date. Our assumptions may change materially with changes in underlying assumptions that may occur, among other things, as economic and market conditions change. We assume no obligation to provide you with updates or changes to this data as assumptions, economic and market conditions, models or other matters change. For your security, communications may be taped or monitored. Issued in March 2014 by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA. Registration No. 1893220 England. 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