September 2015
For professional investors only
Schroders
Portfolio Solutions Monthly
September 2015
Markets dashboard
Yield changes (bps): Aug 15 to Sep 15
Risk asset m arket changes
10 year
20 year
50 year
Aug 15 to Sep 15
FI Gilt yield

-17

-8

-4
MSCI All World

-4.6%
IL Gilt yield

-4

-2

+4
FTSE 100

-3.0%
RPI sw ap

-7

-6

-9
5yr Euro CDS

+20 bps
FI Gilt/Sw ap spread

+1

+5

+9
1 year 90% FTSE 100 put

+0.1%
Source: Schroders, Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, 30 September 2015. Change in equity put is the outright change in premium.
Funding level dashboard
1 year reference funding level progression
1 month attribution of funding level change
110%
90%
89%
100%
88%
90%
87%
86%
80%
70%
Sep 14
85%
84%
Dec 14
Mar 15
Jun 15
Sep 15
Aug funding Nominal
level:
rates:
89%
-0.7%
Real rates:
+0.2%
Growth
assets:
-2.8%
Sep funding
level:
85%
Source: Schroders, Bloomberg, 30 September 2015. Please refer to the supporting notes for further details.
What next for gilt asset swap spreads?
30 year Gilt Asset Swap Spread (bps)
Gilt ASW = Gilt yield - Swap yield
Since the financial crisis, long-dated UK gilts have had higher yields
than the equivalent maturity interest rate swaps. This “yield pick-up”
prompted many pension schemes to switch their existing swap-based
liability hedges to gilt-based liability hedges. It also prompted schemes
initiating new LDI programmes to implement gilt-based hedges even if
their liabilities were swaps-based. However, since Q4 2014, GBP
interest rate swaps strongly outperformed UK gilts, breaking the
previously held range and therefore refuting any notion that spreads are
mean-reverting. With a number of gilt syndications over Q4 2015 and
the demand for swaps from pension schemes expected to continue,
could we see gilt asset swap spreads widen further in 2016?
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Sep-15
Mar-15
Sep-14
Mar-14
Sep-13
Mar-13
Sep-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
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Contact us
Please contact us at PortfolioSolutions@schroders.com if you would like further information on how Schroders can help
manage your Scheme’s exposure to risk.
Schroders: Portfolio Solutions Monthly
Market data: LDI markets
One
year
range
• L H•
Month
end
30 Sep
2015
One
Three
Month Months
31 Aug 30 Jun
2015
2015
One
Year
30 Sep
2014
5 Year
1.21%
1.37%
1.52%
1.80%
10 Year
1.82%
1.99%
2.19%
2.51%
20 Year
2.56%
2.64%
2.80%
3.12%
30 Year
2.62%
2.69%
2.86%
3.24%
50 Year
2.42%
2.46%
2.63%
3.12%
1 Month change (RHS, Bps):
Month end curve (LHS):
Nom inal rates – Gilt m arkets
5.0%
20
2.5%
0
0.0%
-20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Real rates – Index-linked gilt m arkets
2.0%
20
0.0%
0
5 Year
-1.12%
-1.02%
-1.22%
-0.97%
10 Year
-0.81%
-0.77%
-0.80%
-0.48%
20 Year
-0.80%
-0.78%
-0.72%
-0.32%
30 Year
-0.79%
-0.82%
-0.69%
-0.32%
50 Year
-0.92%
-0.96%
-0.84%
-0.33%
5 Year
2.68%
2.70%
3.01%
3.01%
10 Year
2.97%
3.03%
3.22%
3.19%
20 Year
3.38%
3.44%
3.50%
3.49%
30 Year
3.43%
3.51%
3.52%
3.55%
50 Year
3.43%
3.51%
3.53%
3.53%
5 Year
-0.22%
-0.23%
-0.21%
-0.21%
1.0%
20
10 Year
-0.03%
-0.04%
-0.01%
-0.03%
0.5%
10
20 Year
0.43%
0.37%
0.35%
0.19%
0.0%
0
30 Year
0.49%
0.45%
0.46%
0.28%
50 Year
0.45%
0.36%
0.39%
0.21%
-2.0%
-20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Inflation rates – RPI sw ap m arket
5.0%
20
2.5%
0
0.0%
-20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nom inal gilt curve vs sw ap curve
Global bond m arkets
-0.5%
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Forw ard gilt curves
10 Year Bund
0.59%
0.74%
0.76%
0.95%
4.0%
10 Yr Gilt/Bund Spread
1.17%
1.21%
1.25%
1.46%
3.0%
10 Year US Treasury
2.04%
2.18%
2.35%
2.49%
2.0%
10 Yr Gilt/US Spread
-0.27%
-0.21%
-0.32%
-0.06%
5 year IG CDS – Euro
91
71
75
63
5 year IG CDS – US
93
80
70
64
1.0%
0.0%
Money m arkets
0
10
Gilt curve
3 yrs fwd
Currency rates
20
30
40
1 yr fwd
5 yrs fwd
50
30 Sep
2015
31 Aug
2015
30 Jun
2015
30 Sep
2014
Bank of England base
0.50%
0.50%
0.50%
0.50%
GBP/USD
1.51
1.54
1.57
1.62
SONIA
0.46%
0.47%
0.46%
0.45%
GBP/EUR
1.35
1.38
1.41
1.28
3m Libor
0.58%
0.59%
0.58%
0.57%
GBP/JPY
181.1
187.4
192.0
177.9
Interest rate sw aptions as at m onth end:
1y20y
3y20y
5y20y
3y30y
5y30y
ATM* Forw ard
Par sw ap rate
2.15%
2.25%
2.29%
2.18%
2.19%
ATM* Implied volatility
0.82%
0.82%
0.75%
0.78%
0.72%
Source: Schroders, Bloomberg, 30 September 2015. *At the money. All data as at month end allowing for UK trading days.
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50
Schroders: Portfolio Solutions Monthly
Market data: Risk management strategies
One
year
range
• L H•
Month
end
One
Month
Three
Months
One
Year
30 Sep
2015
31 Aug
2015
30 Jun
2015
30 Sep
2014
MSCI World
1,582
1,658
1,736
1,698
FTSE 100
6,062
6,248
6,521
6,623
S&P 500
1,920
1,989
2,063
1,972
Euro Stoxx 50
3,101
3,287
3,424
3,226
Nikkei 225
17,388
19,136
20,236
16,174
Equity indices
MSCI All World Total Return (re-based to 100)
120
100
80
Sep 14
Dec 14
Mar 15
Jun 15
Sep 15
Jun 15
Sep 15
Equity option m arket indicators (FTSE 100, 1 year)
ATM* Implied volatility
18.5%
16.2%
15.6%
13.8%
Skew (90 – 110)
5.5%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
ATM im plied 1 year volatility
Skew (90 vol – 110 vol)
20.0%
6.0%
5.0%
15.0%
4.0%
10.0%
Sep 14
Dec 14
Mar 15
Jun 15
Sep 15
3.0%
Sep 14
Dec 14
Mar 15
Equity risk m anagem ent strategy indicators (FTSE 100 total return, spot prices)
90% Put
Zero cost collar call strike
(90% Put)
Zero cost put spread
collar call strike
(70%/90%)
1 yr
4.5%
107.4%
110.9%
3 yr
7.9%
113.0%
126.5%
95% Put
Zero cost collar call strike
(95% Put)
Zero cost put spread
collar call strike
(70%/95%)
1 yr
5.8%
104.5%
107.5%
3 yr
10.5%
109.1%
118.8%
NB - one year range indicators for equity risk management strategies are based on month end values.
Note: one year range indicators for equity risk management strategies are based on month end values.
Source: Schroders, Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, 30 September 2015. *At the money. All data as at month end allowing for UK
trading days.
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Schroders: Portfolio Solutions Monthly
About us
The Schroders Portfolio Solutions Team partners with investors to provide risk management strategies across all major
financial markets.
The team structures and executes physical and derivative based strategies to manage the exposure to global equity
and fixed income markets. These solutions draw on the full opportunity set of exchange traded and Over-The-Counter
derivatives.
To help manage interest and inflation rate risk, Schroders Portfolio Solutions offers a comprehensive and fully flexible
solution utilising segregated solutions (encompassing physical bonds, swaps, swaption and synthetic gilt based
strategies), as well as the Schroder Matching Plus pooled fund solution. We also provide funding level and market
based trigger monitoring and execution for both pooled and segregated solutions.
Clients can access these solutions under directed or discretionary mandates.
Notes
The funding level dashboard shows the funding level progression and attribution of funding level change of a Reference
Pension Scheme. This Reference Pension Scheme has a liability duration of around 20 years and assumes the liability is
linked 50% to real interest rates and 50% to nominal rates. The assets are assumed to have a beta of 0.75 to global equity
markets. This enables the reader to observe the scale of component changes. No allowance for the impact of the
progression of time on liabilities is included in the funding level dashboard. Funding level progression is presented on a
rolling 12 month basis, indexed to an initial funding level of 100%.
Important Information:
For professional investors only.
The views and opinions contained herein are those of the Portfolio Solutions Team at Schroders, and do not necessarily represent views expressed or
reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds.
This newsletter is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an
offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting,
legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroder Investment Management Limited (SIM) does
not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment
and/or strategic decisions.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as
up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. The forecasts stated in the newsletter are the result of statistical modelling, based on a
number of assumptions. Forecasts are subject to a high level of uncertainty regarding future economic and market factors that may affect actual future
performance. The forecasts are provided to you for information purposes as at today's date. Our assumptions may change materially with changes in
underlying assumptions that may occur, among other things, as economic and market conditions change. We assume no obligation to provide you with
updates or changes to this data as assumptions, economic and market conditions, models or other matters change.
For your security, communications may be taped or monitored.
Issued in October 2015 by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA. Registration No. 1893220 England.
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
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