Actualité scientifique Scientific news October 2010 With 25 million of its people pulled out from deprivation and one of the world’s fastest growth rates, in less than 20 years Vietnam has seen a spectacular decrease in poverty. IRD scientists from the research unit UMR Développement, institutions et mondialisation1 and their partners2 have studied this success story. The great economic reform Doi Moi3 or “Renovation”, was launched in 1986 and was the stimulus behind the country’s growth. Subsequently the country implemented measures for budget redistribution from the richer regions to the poorer ones and targeted financial aid schemes for the most deprived sections of society. Working people’s economic insecurity is a persistent problem, however. This is one of the remaining gloomy sides of the Vietnamese economy. Many work in the informal4 sector. In fact currently there are more than 10 million operating as street vendors, tradesmen or involved in other informally organized occupations. Such activities represent 50% of the country’s labour market, agriculture excepted. The main challenges now are to reduce inequality even further and beat insecurity. Tackling these would enable Vietnam to reach the level of the industrialized countries. Vietnam: an “Asian miracle”? © IRD / Marie-Noëlle Favier N° 359 Actualidad cientifica Far-reaching economic reform, run on an export-based growth model combined with redistribution of wealth, has enabled Vietnam to reduce poverty since the early 1990s and to appear among the emerging countries. Is Vietnam, on its scale, a representative of the Asian Miracle, akin to the continent’s four tigers -Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea? IRD scientists from research unit UMR Développement, institutions et mondialisation 1 and their partners2 have studied the economic policies which have enabled that country to raise itself up, after decades of war followed by years of severe economic problems. Vietnamese success story Since the early 1990s Vietnam has experienced a spectacular decrease in poverty. The percentage of the Vietnamese population living below the poverty line fell from 58% in 1993 to 14.5% in 2008. Twentyfive million people have thus emerged from poverty in 15 years. In urban areas in 2008, only 3.5% of the population is considered to be poor, even though the cost of living continues to rise. Vietnam owes its people’s increase in wealth to the remarkable economic growth it has achieved over the past 20 years, one of the fastest in the world. The country thus recently entered the sphere of the emerging countries. A “socialist” form of capitalism How has Vietnam managed so successfully in playing the capitalist game? The adoption in 1986 of Doi Moi3, Vietnamese for “Renovation”, marked the country’s conversion to a particular model, a “socialist-based market economy”. A dynamic private sector then built up alongside a strong public sector. The public powers maintained control over whole areas of the economy such as energy, industry and banks. The State also continued to be highly active in running certain public policies (for agriculture, industry, planning and so on) and pursued price regulation for basic products and so on. Vietnam founded its drive forward on export-based growth and rapidly joined the international economy. Now it is the world’s top exporter of both Robusta coffee and pepper and second among clothing exporters to the American market. And it now takes an active part in international bodies. In January For further information 2007, the country became the 150 member of the World Trade Organization. th Distributed wealth However, the beneficial effects of the economic boom are not to the advantage of all Vietnamese. The Kinh5 majority is more strongly favoured than the ethnic minorities, most of whom live in the mountains or other remote areas, where poverty is still rife. To alleviate a potential rise in inequality, Vietnam pursues an ambitious policy of budget transfer from rich to poor regions. The wealthier areas transmit up to three-quarters of their receipts to the more deprived ones, for which these transfers can amount to half their GDP. This redistribution enables the poorer regions to develop their infrastructure (such as education, health, electricity, road network, water supply and drainage networks) and provide health cover and other social services. These strategies led to improvement in the human development indicators. Schooling rate in primary has reached nearly 100%, life expectancy rose from 63 years 1990 to 68 in 2005 for men and from 67 to 73 for women. Vietnam is even ahead of schedule in its drive to meet the 2015 target for achieving the Millennium Development Objectives. Persistent insecurity To beat poverty completely, the country still has a number of challenges to meet. One in particular concerns the reduction of the informal4 sector, which operates like a parallel economy and maintains a high level of insecurity. This involves street vendors, tradesmen, domestic services and so on. In Vietnam over 10 million people who run small-scale businesses, practising without making any official declaration. The global financial crisis has on the whole been absorbed by the Vietnamese economy, but it has destroyed a large number of jobs and indeed reinforced the informal sector, where unfortunate working people have found refuge. This sector constitutes, agriculture excepted, 50% of the labour market and generated an estimated 20% of GDP. Some means of combating these trends exist, such as microcredit, or training. The research team observed, however, that their impact was still limited and short term. For this reason they recommend that support be provided for the informal sector as it is, with for example the setting-up of a social security system for workers in this informal sector. The government indeed recently adopted such a scheme. Contacts Jean-Pierre CLING, director of research hosted by the IRD jean-pierre.cling@ird.fr Mireille RAZAFINDRAKOTO, chargée de recherche à l’IRD mireille.razafindrakoto@ird.fr François ROUBAUD, research associate at the IRD françois.roubaud@ird.fr UMR Développement, institutions et mondialisation – DIAL (IRD / Université Paris-Dauphine) Adress IRD Vietnam Quartier diplomatique de Van Phuc App. 202, Bât 2G 298 Kim Ma, Ba Dinh Hanoi, Vietnam Tél. : (844) 37 34 66 56 The informal sector is the primary generator of jobs. However, it is still largely neglected in the Vietnamese government’s policies, owing to insufficiency of official data. The research conducted is shedding light on the parallel economy. If Vietnam continues along this line and succeeds in combating informal workers’ insecurity and in reducing poverty among the ethnic minorities, in one generation it could join the sphere of the industrial countries. Reference Lagrée S., Cling Jean-Pierre, Razafindrakoto Mireille, Roubaud François (dir.). Stratégies de réduction de la pauvreté : approches méthodologiques et transversales. Hanoi : Tri Thuc, 2010, p. 263-368. Les journées de Tam Dao : université d’été en sciences sociales 2009, Hanoi (VNM), 2009/09/18-26. Copy editor – Gaëlle Courcoux - DIC, IRD Key words Vietnam, poverty, informal employment Translation – Nicholas FLAY 1. UMR DIAL (IRD / Université Paris-Dauphine) 2. The investigations were conducted jointly in the Vietnamese General Statistics Office. They were presented as part of the Tam Dao Summer School/Uni co-organized annually by the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences along with the IRD, AFD (Agence Française de Développement), AUF (Agence Universitaire de la Francophonie) and EFFEO. 3. Doi Moi is a major economic reform the Vietnamese Communist Party has been running since 1986, combining capitalism with a strong degree of State intervention. Coordination Gaëlle Courcoux Délégation à l’information et à la communication Tel.: +33 (0)4 91 99 94 90 Fax: +33 (0)4 91 99 92 28 fichesactu@ird.fr 4. The informal sector consists of all undeclared economic activities which therefore avoid State control and regulation. 5. Kinh is the official designation for the Viet, ethnic group originating from the North of present-day Vietnam and Southern China. The Kinh make up over 80% of the country’s population. The global financial crisis has increased the weight of the informal sector in the labour market. Vietnam now has more than 8 million street vendors, traders and other undeclared workers, for whom the challenge is to reduce the high level of insecurity. © IRD / M. Razafindrakoto © IRD / M. 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