Schroders Economic Infographic June 2015
Eurozone: forecast on track
2016
2.0%
(prev 1.3%)
2015
0.9%
Conservative Party
Election victory
(prev 1.6%)
World
U.S.A
Japan
Europe
Emerging
Markets
=
Austerity
to resume =
lower growth
Response
to fall in
energy costs
slower than
expected
$ remains
firm +
economy
temporarily
slows
Austerity +
credit
conditions
ease... weak
€ + energy
prices support
activity
Slow start to
2015...
however,
growth
supported
by weaker ¥
Tighter
interest
rates, firm $
+ weak
commodities
weigh
on growth
(1) Fed behind the curve
Fed delays
hike to H2 2016
on growth fears
Inflation
surges out
of control
(2) Tightening tantrum
Bond markets
sell-off in
response to
Fed tightening
SPA
IN
2.8%
1.1%
1%
0.5%
Economy
is out of
recession
1.2%
= 2015 forecast
Improved
growth
outcome due to
rise in inventories
Pace may not
continue into Q2
= 2016 forecast
Bother in the BRICs
BRAZIL
Federal Reserve: 2 new risk scenarios
2.1%
Y
(prev 3.2%)
(prev 3.7%)
2.4%
M
FR
A
Growth forecast
(prev 2.8%)
2016
1.6%
2015
1.4%
1.6%
ITA
L
2016
2.5%
2015
2.4%
Depreciation in € +
rebound in energy
prices = inflation
positive again
ECB buying €60bn of assets
per month until Sep’ 16
Germany robust... but
French recovery fragile
2016
4.3%
2015
3.6%
GE
R
Imports =
weighed on
total growth
Y
AN
2016
2.9%
2015
2.5%
Fastest
quarter of
growth
since Q4
2007
CE
Global growth downgraded after disappointing Q1. Inflation expected
to remain low in 2015
N
Forecast update
More aggressive
monetary tightening
weighs on growth
as consumption fades
Higher global
yields hit
growth
Emerging
markets suffer
most
INDIA
RUSSIA
Oil price
remains low
Ukraine situation
remains tense
Reforms disappoint
market... but modest
pace should deliver
improvements
CHINA
Property +
manufacturing
to struggle.
Weak growth =
policy
easing measures
15.1%
7.9%
6.2%
5.5%
7.5% 7.8%
5.2% 6.2%
6.8%
6.5%
1.4% 2.0%
0.7%
-1.8% 2016
2015
GDP
2015
2016
INFLATION
-4% -0.1%
2015
2016
GDP
2015
2016
INFLATION
2015
2016
GDP
2015
2016
INFLATION
2015
2016
GDP
2015
2016
INFLATION
Source: Schroders as at June 2015.
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