Schroder Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited
Level 33, Two Pacific Place
88 Queensway, Hong Kong
施羅德投資管理﹝香港﹞有限公司
香港金鐘道 88 號太古廣場二座 33 字樓
Tel 電話：+852 2521 1633 Fax 傳真：+852 2530 9095
www.schroders.com.hk
Press Release
Schroders to downgrade forecast for global growth
3 December 2015
HONG KONG – Schroders Chief Economist Keith Wade announced that Schroders’ global growth
forecast for 2016, which currently stands at 2.9%, is downgraded to 2.6%. There are a number of
factors that point towards disappointing growth in 2016.
Keith Wade, commented: “We thought the fall in commodity prices – particularly oil – would create
stronger demand and, as we approach 2016, that we would see more growth, but that doesn’t seem
to be coming through. The world economy seems to be stuck with growth around about 2.6%.”
One of the key factors will be disappointing growth in China. Schroders believes that the true rate of
growth in China this year will be somewhere around 6%, rather than the official figure of 6.9%. This
does not represent a hard landing, although it does signify that prospects for China will remain dull
unless there is significant stimulus. Keith Wade also mentioned that China is promoting deflation by
exporting its excess capacity, which is one of the reasons why British steel firms are struggling to
compete in the world market.
In the US, the effects of the contraction in the shale gas industry have offset part of the benefits to
GDP of falling oil prices. Whilst there is evidence that the US public is spending the gains of falling
petrol prices, most of it is focused on domestic services such as eating out, rather than goods that
might have given a lift to world trade.
The weakness in the global economy is reflected in global trade running at less than a third of the
normal level, according to Keith Wade. Given the weak recovery in many countries, he expects that
the US Federal Reserve will be cautious about raising interest rates.
Schroders expects interest rates to rise slowly, forecasting rates of about 1% by the end of 2016 and
2% by the end of 2017.
-EndSchroders plc
Schroders is a global asset management company with US$446.5 billion under management as at 30
September 2015. Our clients are major financial institutions including pension funds, banks and
insurance companies, local and public authorities, governments, charities, high net worth individuals
and retail investors.
With one of the largest networks of offices of any dedicated asset management company, we operate
from 37 offices in 27 countries across Europe, the Americas, Asia and the Middle East. Schroders has
developed under stable ownership for over 200 years and long-term thinking governs our approach to
investing, building client relationships and growing our business.
Further information about Schroders can be found at www.schroders.com.hk.
Schroder Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited
Level 33, Two Pacific Place
88 Queensway, Hong Kong
施羅德投資管理﹝香港﹞有限公司
香港金鐘道 88 號太古廣場二座 33 字樓
Tel 電話：+852 2521 1633 Fax 傳真：+852 2530 9095
www.schroders.com.hk
For further information, please contact:
Yvonne Ma
Head of Marketing, Hong Kong and China
Schroders
Tel: +852 2843 7725
Email: yvonne.ma@schroders.com
Peggy Lai
Marketing Manager, Hong Kong
Schroders
Tel: +852 2843 7745
Email: peggy.lai@schroders.com
Thomas Kwan
Madaket and Company Limited
Tel: +852 9018 2500
Email: thomas.kwan@madaketco.com
Stephanie Choi
Madaket and Company Limited
Tel: +852 9100 4747
Email: stephanie.choi@madaketco.com
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Schroder Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited
Level 33, Two Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong
Telephone +852 2521 1633 Fax +852 2530 9095