Energy and Water Scarcity:
Impacts on Infrastructure, Growth and
Economic Development in Arizona and Sonora
Dr. Christopher Scott
Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, &
School of Geography & Development
University of Arizona
cascott@email.arizona.edu
Dr. Martin J. (Mike) Pasqualetti
School of Geographical Sciences
Barrett Honors College
Arizona State University pasqualetti@asu.edu
This work is supported by the Arizona Water Institute

!
Dr. Christopher Scott - Department of Geography and Regional
Development, Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, University of
Arizona cascott@email.arizona.edu
!
!
Dr. Martin (Mike) Pasqualetti -School of Geographical Sciences and
Urban Planning, Arizona State University
Joseph Hoover (M.A.) - Graduate Student Department of Geography and Regional Development, Udall Center for Studies in Public
Policy, University of Arizona
!
Dr. Robert Varady - Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy,
University of Arizona
!
Dr. Subhro Guhathakurta - School of Geographical Sciences and
Urban Planning, Arizona State University
!
Dr. Gregg Garfin - Climate Assessment for the Southwest
(CLIMAS), University of Arizona

Maricopa
Pinal
Pima
Yavapai
Mohave
Yuma
Navajo
Cochise
Coconino
Santa Cruz
Apache
Gila
Graham
La Paz
Greenlee
Arizona
Pop. Change %Pop. Change WATER SCENARIOS
2006-2030 2006-2030 GPCD=218* GPCD=177** GPCD=150
2,443,534
582,571
59.5% 532,690,412 432,505,518
14.2% 127,000,478 103,115,067
366,530,100
87,385,650
461,443
142,740
135,661
120,659
52,975
52,936
41,003
25,730
18,756
14,777
8,683
6,585
8
11.2% 100,594,574
3.5% 31,117,320
3.3% 29,574,098
2.9% 26,303,662
1.3% 11,548,550
1.3% 11,540,048
1.0%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
8,938,654
5,609,140
4,088,808
3,221,386
1,892,894
1,435,530
1,744
81,675,411
25,264,980
24,011,997
21,356,643
9,376,575
9,369,672
7,257,531
4,554,210
3,319,812
2,615,529
1,536,891
1,165,545
1,416
69,216,450
21,411,000
20,349,150
18,098,850
7,946,250
7,940,400
6,150,450
3,859,500
2,813,400
2,216,550
1,302,450
987,750
1,200
4,108,061 100.0% 895,557,298 727,126,797 616,209,150
* Phoenix 2005; **Tucson 2005;
150=smart growth
+66% +53%
From 2006 base
+45%

Hermosillo
Cajeme
Nogales
San Luis Río Colorado
Navojoa
Guaymas
Huatabampo
Agua Prieta
Caborca
Etchojoa
Empalme
Puerto Peñasco
Sonora total
PopChange %PopChange
2006-2030 2006-2030
338 676
- 13 791
99 501
79.1%
-3.2%
23.2%
21 130
645
- 7 093
- 15 094
9 906
- 17 848
- 12 015
- 11 849
70 902
428 237
4.9%
0.2%
-1.7%
-3.5%
2.3%
-4.2%
-2.8%
-2.8%
16.6%
100.0%
WATER SCENARIOS
GPCD=60* GPCD=100
20,320,560 33,867,600
(827,460) (1,379,100)
5,970,060 9,950,100
1,267,800
38,700
2,113,000
64,500
(425,580) (709,300)
(905,640) (1,509,400)
594,360 990,600
(1,070,880) (1,784,800)
(720,900) (1,201,500)
(710,940) (1,184,900)
4,254,120 7,090,200
25,694,220 42,823,700
+17.7%
* Estimate from Nogales (Walker and Pavlakovich-Kochi, 2002)
+29.6%
From 2006 base

7000000
Population vs Energy Demand
(1990-2005)
80000000
6000000
70000000
60000000
5000000
50000000
4000000
40000000
3000000
30000000
2000000
20000000
1000000
10000000
0
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
Year
0
MWhr consumed
Population

A 5,000 m ³ /d PV/
RO system needs an initial investment of more than 22 million US$ compared to about 5 million US$ for an ordinary
RO system
Giseppe Fiorenza, V.K. Sharma, Giacobbe Braccio Techno-economic Evaluation Of A Solar Powered Water
Desalination Plant. In L. Rizzuti et al. (eds.), Solar Desalination For The 21st Century , 33–41. 2007 Springer.

1,000+
1,000
800
785
600
510
415
400
350 350
311
195
200
0
Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Landfill Biofuel
<1
Solar
Thermal
Natural Gas
- CC
Solar - PV

20.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
8.10
5.00
4.86
0.00
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
4.05
2.43
2000
Source: Shahid Chaudhry, State of Desalination & Potential Impacts on Energy Use in California. U.S. – Mexico BORDER ENRGY
FORUM XIV San Diego, California October 18 – 19, 2007
1.62
2005

Current Water Use (CONAGUA Northwest Region)
Superficial
69.7 %
Usos consuntivos de
7,433.2 Mm3
Subterránea
30.3%
Público urbano ( 5.07% ) 377 Mm 3
Agrícola ( 93.50% ) 6,949 Mm 3
Pecuario ( 0.70%) 51.7 Mm 3
Industrial ( 0.73% ) 54.5 Mm 3
Recreación y Turismo (N/SIG.) 1 Mm 3

Subsistema
Alisos
Mascareñas
Centro
Global
Guaymas
Monclova
Veracruz
Tijuana
Durango
Otras ciudades
Produccion
Indice Energetico Actual
%
Consumo
Energetico
% m3/anual % kWh/anual
10,699,780 47% 16,371,702 47%
6,735,440 30% 12,682,179 36%
5,345,818 23% 5,541,639 16%
22,781,038 100% 34,826,673 99%
Indice
Energetico kWh/m3
1.53
1.88
1.04
1.53
Indice
Energetico kWh/m3
0.90
0.60
0.40
4.50
0.57
•   Con las Medidas de Ahorro propuestas el IE de Nogales bajaría a
1.1 kWh/m3

Sonora Ag. Power Consumption
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
198
8
199
0
Night
Reg./ day
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
Chihuahua Ag. Power Consumption
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
198
8
Night
Reg./ day
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
Coahuila Ag. Power Consumption
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
198
8
Night
Reg./ day
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
Guanajuato Ag. Power Consumption
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
198
8
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
Night
Reg./ day
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4

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5. Tucson and Phoenix Energy-for-Water
Tucson metropolitan area: 4 water agencies, 1 wastewater agency.
Total population served ~830,000
City of Phoenix: City owned and operated water and wastewater facilities. To population served ~
1.5 million

Primary extraction and delivery
Water treatment and distribution

City of Phoenix
Projected
Electricity Growth
Scenario
CAP Normal &
SRP Normal
CAP Moderate &
SRP Moderate
CAP Severe &
SRP Moderate
CAP Severe &
SRP Severe
General
Plan (AF)
General Plan
(GWh)
475,687
417,687
370,687
206,100
722.7
612.4
503.5
452.2
High Density
(AF)
High Density
(GWh)
581,020
447,000
400,000
306,000
774.7
635.6
526.7
452.2

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The CAP is the largest electricity user for water services in both the city of Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan area
!
Electricity use for water and wastewater service in the Tucson metropolitan area and city of Phoenix accounts for 1.2% of statewide electricity consumption for 2005
!
Projected electricity demand for Tucson and the city of Phoenix will equal approximately 1.1% of statewide electricity demand by 2030
!
Electricity use for water and wastewater service in the Tucson metropolitan area accounts for approximately 5% of total residential, commercial and industrial electricity use in the metropolitan area

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Urban water demand with conservation:
–   Arizona + 45% by 2030
–   Sonora + 18% by 2030
Energy demand exceeds water availability for cooling under present conditions
–   Under expected power generation mix, energy demand will exert increasing water demand of its own

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IPCC Scenario A1b, 21 st century:
–   3.0-3.5° C warmer
–   5-15% less precipitation
Heightened probability of prolonged droughts, heat waves, and Colorado River deficits
“ Next bucket ” from desalination?
–   Energy and environmental implications

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With exception of solar thermal, renewables are more water efficient, giving an extra boost to the good sense of developing these alternative sources
Major potential for renewables in Arizona and Sonora

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Agricultural water conservation
–   Arizona – water rights transfer to cities
–   Sonora – continued groundwater depletion
Groundwater is a strategic resource
–   Need to examine cross-border “ virtual water ”
Energy-for-water
–   CAP – critical infrastructure, energy intensive
–   Sonora - efficiency, conservation opportunities

Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, &
School of Geography & Development
University of Arizona cascott@email.arizona.edu