Climate, Water, Ecosystems,
Uncertainty and Decision Making in the Southwest U.S.
Climate Risk and Water Security in the Americas
27 February 2011 – San Jose del Cabo, BCS, Mexico
Gregg Garfin, The University of Arizona, gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu
Boundary
Cowin, CDWR, 2008
Southwest Climate Change Initiative:
Multi-Jurisdictional Ecosystem Climate Change
Adaptation Demonstration Project
Southwest Climate Change Initiative
Lead Organization: The Nature Conservancy
www.nmconservation.org
Alpine environments
Riparian streamflow
Endangered
Species
Fire
Increased temperatures, decreased soil moisture,
result in greater stress, longer insect breeding cycles.
Once a threshold is crossed massive mortality occurs.
Photo: Neil Cobb, Northern Arizona University
Erosion
Fire
Images:
Craig Allen, USGS
Mortality
Time
Ecosystem state
Temperature
Thresholds
Tipping Points
Craig Allen, USGS
Time
Invasive Species
(grasses) alter fire
Regimes in the SW U.S.A.
Molly Cross, Wildlife
Climate Change Adaptation Framework Conservation
Society
Planning
Implementation
Specify management
objective
Conceptual
model
Info
needs
Scenarios &
Impacts
Monitor &
evaluate
Adjust
actions?
Revisit
objectives?
Implement
Strategic
actions
Feasibility &
Priorities
Action
Plan
Digiorgio et al., 2010 – SWCCI Workshop – Bear River, UT
www.nmconservation.org
Define Manageme
nt Objectives
Maintain or expand the number of viable populations of the Bonneville cutthroat trout. Achieve this by maintaining or restoring:
•Connectivity
•Flows
•Habitat quality
•Genetic diversity
•Water quality
Develop Conceptual Ecological Model
Identify Climate Change Impacts “hypotheses of change”
Higher air temperatures increase evapotranspiration and decreased summer base flow, leading to expansion of uninhabitable reaches throughout the current range of the trout.
Patrick McCarthy – Southwest Climate Change Initiative
Lead organization: The Nature Conservancy
www.nmconservation.org Propose Strategic Actions
to reduce adverse impacts
Inventory and strategically remove barriers to dispersal.
Identify priority reaches for restoration. Protect habitat in reaches that provide thermal refugia, especially headwaters.
Protect springs that moderate stream temperature.
Identify Priority Actions
Restore connectivity between river mainstem and tributaries to allow for trout dispersal in response to temperature increases
Valles Caldera
National Preserve
Los
Alamos
Santa Fe National Forest
Jemez Pueblo
Southwest Climate Change Initiative
Lead organization: The Nature Conservancy
www.nmconservation.org
High
Temperature
increases
I
M
P
A
C
T
Shifts in
temperature
extremes
Summer
precipitation
increase/decrease
Rate of
temperature
change
Changes in
seasonal
hydrology/Season
al water balance
Winter
precipitation
increase
Crossing environmental
temperature thresholds
Fire frequency
and severity
Low
Low
UNCERTAINTY
Timing and type
of precipitation
Shifts in other
extremes:
Precip, Wind
High
Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona
U.S. National Park Service, Crown of the Continent Adaptation Initiative
-PDO moderation in early decades
- warmer, more humid & dynamic
system
- increased storminess
- droughts are generally intra-annual
- overall increase in productivity
- fires more isolated in time, space
PRECIPITATION
Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona
U.S. National Park Service, Crown of the Continent Adaptation Initiative
SSF
precip - dynamic and volatile climate: intra- and
increase inter-annual
Climate Complacency
Gradual/
Uniform
- hydrologic flashiness: rain-on-snow; storms
year-round
- water stresses often moderate at local
levels
- significant chances of intense intra-annual
drought
- rapid ecological responses
- emergence of novel ecosystems
Volatile Surprise
RATE OF CHANGE OF TEMPERATURE INCREASE
Abrupt
Race to Refuge
NON-WINTER
Colorado Creeps North
- overall drier climate in non-winter months
- recurring summer/fall moisture stress:
streams, meadows, wetlands
- fire regime changes: higher severity,
extent, frequency
- with every disturbance, shift to drier
ecosystems
- eventual regional change favoring shrubs
and grasslands
Rapid /
SSF
precip
decrease
- rapid warming & decrease in non-winter
precipitation
- rain/snow ratio changes dramatically at low- & midelevations
- substantial risk of rain-on-snow events
- water stress severe, region-wide, unrelenting
- epic fire regimes: region-wide, firestorms
- ecosystems in great transition: drought, fire, disease,
pests, exotic species
- unrelenting assault on infrastructure: rain-on-snow ,
fire, rain-on-snow after fire
FOR ALL QUADRANTS: Temperatures increasing; Temperature extremes increasing; Environmental thresholds exceeded;
Winter precipitation stable or increasing ; Earlier spring runoff; Growing season & Fire season extended; Phenological mismatches
Three Climate Scenarios
Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona
U.S. National Park Service, Crown of the Continent Adaptation Initiative
Colorado Creeps North
Climate Complacency
Race to Refuge
Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona
U.S. National Park Service, Crown of the Continent Adaptation Initiative
High-Level Framework for Scenario Development
Cross the critical uncertainties together to form a high-level matrix. This creates 4 different pictures for the future social and
political landscape around climate change
Broad Understanding
Riots and Revolution
Coordinated action around the world as climate
change (and its effects on weather, resources and
people) becomes seen as an increasingly urgent and
widespread challenge. Political leaders initiate bold
decisions and policies to mitigate the worst, and
adapt to the inevitabilities of climate change effects.
Degree of
At a time of growing social concerns and fear about
the impacts of climate change, governments and
political leaders are unable to articulate a coherent
set of policies and approaches. The result? Growing
public unease, and movements to overturn existing
systems and structures.
Big Problems, Big Solutions
Heightened Urgency
Lack of senior commitment
Senior commitment
Varied approaches and
alignment
Nature of Leadership
Short-term concerns
Societal Concern
Is Anyone Out There?
To the frustration of many, climate change becomes a
variable concern that is often ignored by political and
business leaders. Scientific consensus breaks down,
other societal challenges loom large, meaning that
climate change is seldom on the front pages, or in the
forefront of political and business leaders’ minds.
International alignment
Long-term perspectives
Wheel-Spinning
Despite growing scientific evidence that has
convinced leaders across the world, climate change
remains a remote concern for the majority of everyday
people. Consumers and businesses rail against
carbon caps and prices, claiming them to be “just
another tax” imposed by the elite.
Widespread indifference
Competing concerns
NPS, 2010
Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona
U.S. National Park Service, Crown of the Continent Adaptation Initiative
NESTED SCENARIOS
Combining local and high-level scenario frameworks  “nested scenarios”
Rate of Change of Temp. Increase
Colorado
Non-Winter
Refuge
Lack of senior
commitment
Varied approaches
/alignment
Short-term concerns
Surprise
Rate of Change of Temp. Increase
Colorado
New
Race to
World
Refuge
Senior commitment
International alignment
Long-term perspectives
Rate of Change of Temp. Increase
Non-Winter
Colorado
Refuge
Widespread
indifference
Competing
concerns
Precipitation
Complacency
Surprise
Rate of Change of Temp. Increase
Constant
Colorado
Drought
Creeps North
Non-Winter
Surprise
DEGREE OF
Precipitation
NATURE OF LEADERSHIP
Climate
ComplaComplacency
cency
Is Anyone
Out There?...
Complacency
Precipitation
Surprise
Big problems,
Big solutions…
Non-Winter
Complacency
Precipitation
Riots &
Revolution…
SOCIETAL CONCERN
Broad
Understanding
Heightened
Urgency
Refuge
FOR ALL QUADRANTS: leadership is generally event-based
Wheel-Spinning…
Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona
U.S. National Park Service, Crown of the Continent Adaptation Initiative
Crown Ecosystem: What would you do differently?
Colorado Creeps North:
Wheel Spinning…
Climate Complacency:
Is Anyone Out There?
Race to Refuge: Big
Problems, Big Solutions
Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona
U.S. National Park Service, Crown of the Continent Adaptation Initiative
One-Dimensional Planning vs. Scenario Planning
One-Dimensional
Planning
Outcomes
A
B
C
D
Scenario
Planning
Elements
Common to A-D
Possible Futures
Elements
Common to A-C
Elements
Common to A-B
A
B
C
D
Good example: City of Tucson Water Plan: 2000-2050 Updated Version
One-Dimensional Planning vs. Scenario Planning
One-Dimensional
Planning
Outcomes
A
B
C
D
Scenario Planning
Collaboration
Communication
Inventory &
Monitoring
Connectivity
Restoration in
impaired
locations
Headwaters
restoration
across the
Region
Protect refugia
over other
locations
Dams in the Park?
Move fish stocks
north
Bring new fish stocks
from south
Let some systems go
Possible Futures
RR
CCN
CC
Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona
U.S. National Park Service, Crown of the Continent Adaptation Initiativec
Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona
U.S. National Park Service, Crown of the Continent Adaptation Initiative