Global Climate Change: What the Future Holds and What We Can Do About It:
Carbon Capture and Sequestration
Life‐Long Learning Academy
WMU, Fall 2011
Dave Barnes, Geosciences
dave.barnes@wmich.edu
Nov 10, 2011
1
Secretary Chu Announces $2.4 billion in Funding for Carbon Capture and Storage Projects, May 2009
• Overwhelming scientific evidence demonstrates that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have already caused the climate to change. The world is on a perilous course that poses clear threats to the well‐being and economic prosperity of our people. • We also know that prosperity depends on reliable, affordable access to energy. Coal accounts for 25 percent of the world's energy supply and 40
percent of carbon emissions, and is likely to be a major and growing source of electricity generation for the foreseeable future.
• For this reason, I believe we must make it our goal to advance carbon capture and storage technology to the point where widespread, affordable deployment can begin in 8 to 10 years.
Nobel Laureate (Physics)
and Secretary of Energy
Dr. Steven Chu
2
Carbon Capture and Storage, CCS
• CCS is various methods for capturing and permanently storing anthropogenic CO2* that would otherwise contribute to global climate change.
*Carbon extracted from the inactive carbon reservoir of the Geosphere and introduced into the active carbon reservoirs of Soils, the Atmosphere, Biosphere and Hydrosphere
Carbon Cycle, Active (surface) and Inactive (geological) reservoirs
3
Carbon Capture and Storage, CCS
• CCS is various methods for capturing and permanently storing anthropogenic CO2* that would otherwise contribute to global climate change.
*Carbon extracted from the inactive carbon reservoir of the Geosphere and introduced into the active carbon reservoirs of Soils, the Atmosphere, Biosphere and Hydrosphere
Carbon Cycle, Active (surface) and Inactive (geological) reservoirs
Sink
Atmosphere
Soil Organic Matter
Ocean Marine Sediments and Sedimentary Rocks
Terrestrial Plants
Fossil Fuel Deposits
Amount in Billions of Metric Tons
578 (as of 1700) ‐ 766 (as of 1999)
1500 to 1600
38,000 to 40,000
66,000,000 to 100,000,000
540 to 610
4000
4
Anthropogenic Global Carbon Dioxide Budget
5
S. Pacala and R. Socolow,
Fossil Fuel Burning
ATMOSPHERE
8
4 billion tons added billion tons go in
every year
800
billion tons carbon
Ocean
Land Biosphere (net)
2
+
2
=
4
billion tons go out
ATMOSPHERE
1200
“Doubled” CO2
Today
Pre‐Industrial
Glacial
Billions of tons of carbon
(570)
800
(380)
600
400
(285)
billions of tons carbon
(190)
( ppm )
6
Stabilization
Wedges
• Addressing GHG emissions/ climate change for the next 50 years* with current technologies
• Reducing GHG emissions to ensure atmospheric CO2
concentration < 500ppm!
*Unfortunately, some believe that the emissions growth estimate in the P&S BAU curve is far too low (developing countries energy utilization) !Also some believe that, at an atmospheric CO2 concentration in excess of 380ppm, we are already at a climate change tipping point…
point….. (climate sensitivity concerns)
S. Pacala and R. Socolow*
7
Geosequestration
• AKA: Geological Carbon Sequestration
– The safe and permanent storage of CO2 in geological media
– Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere.
8
Geosequestration
• AKA: Geological Carbon Sequestration
– The safe and permanent storage of CO2 in geological media
– Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere.
From: CO2CRC
9
Geological Sequestration (GS)
• Geological media suitable for storage of CO2 in Michigan
– depleted oil reservoirs (+/- CO2/EOR) and
– deep, saline (brine-filled) reservoir formations
`
`
CO2CRC
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The New Energy‐Technology Challenge
• 8 Energy Technology Categories and the pathway to GHG Emissions Mitigation
transportation
IEA
International Energy Agency, 2008
11
DOE‐NETL Carbon Sequestration Research
12
DOE‐NETL Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership Program:
Midwest Region Carbon Sequestration Partnership
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DOE‐NETL RCSP Carbon Sequestration Atlas
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Climate Change
• Variation in the Earth's global climate, or in regional climates, over time • In recent usage the term "climate change" refers to the ongoing changes in modern climate, • This includes the rise in average surface temperature known as Global Warming with a presumption of human causation
15
20th Century Global Temperature & Atmospheric CO2 Change
US Energy Flow, 2008
(Quadrillion BTU; QUADS)
Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Review 2008
US Energy Flow, 2008
(Quadrillion BTU; QUADS)
Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Review 2008
CO2 Emissions Flow, 2008
Energy Information Administration Emissions of Greenhouse Gases Report 2008
US CO2 Emissions by Sector:
Impact of Coal for Electric Power
GDP vs Electric Power (2004)
Frank van Mierlo;
2006 Key World Energy Statistics
from the International Energy Agency
Rapidly transforming U.S. Fossil Fuel Intensive energy infrastructure to a low/no GHG emissions infrastructure on the time frame necessary to address climate change
Is a Formidable Challenge
22
CO2 emissions (Pg CO2 y-1)
Growth rate
2000-2009
2.5 % per year
Growth rate
1990-1999
1 % per year
2009:
Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgC
Growth rate: -1.3%
1990 level: +37%
2000-2008
Growth rate: +3.2%
2010 (projected):
Growth rate: >3%
Time (y)
Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters
2009
2000
China
1600
(C tons x 1,000,000)
Carbon Emissions per year
CO2 emissions (Pg C y-1)
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
USA
1200
800
India
Russian Fed.
400
Japan
0
1990
93
95
97
99 2001 03
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010
05
07 2009
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
5
57%
86% of world Population
20% of historic emissions
Annex B (Kyoto Protocol)
4
Developed Nation
20% of world Population
80% of historic emissions
3
43%
Developing Nations
2
Non-Annex B
1990
2000
Time (y)
2010
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 20010
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type
4
40%
Oil
3
Coal
36%
2
Gas
1
Cement
0
1990
2000
Time (y)
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010
2010
Current Global Energy Use
85% Fossil Energy
Can we REALLY wean ourselves from Fossil Fuels and GHG emissions in Time??
Biggest jump ever seen in global warming gases
By Seth Borenstein, Associated Press, Nov 4, 2011
WASHINGTON – The global output of heat-trapping carbon dioxide jumped by
the biggest amount on record, the U.S. Department of Energy calculated, a
sign of how feeble the world's efforts are at slowing man-made global
warming.
Output of carbon into the atmosphere increased 6% from 2009 to 2010.
o The world pumped about 564 million more tons (512 million metric tons) of carbon into the air in 2010 than it did in 2009. That's an increase of 6%.
o The new figures for 2010 mean that levels of greenhouse gases are higher than the worst case scenario outlined by climate experts just four years ago.
o "The more we talk about the need to control emissions, the more they are growing," said John Reilly, co‐director of MIT's Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.
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Geosequestration
• AKA: Geological Carbon Sequestration
– The safe and permanent storage of CO2 in geological media
– Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere.
From: CO2CRC
29
Key Factors for Geosequestration
Assessment
• Non‐interference with USDT’s
underground sources of drinking water  <10,000 ppm TDS
• Storage Capacity
– Storage volume compared to anthropogenic CO2 sources i.e. 600 Mw power plant {Port Sheldon} = ~5 million tons of CO2/year, for 50 years = 250 million tons for the 50 year life of a big power station
– Pore volume, storage efficiency, temperature/pressure (>2,600 ft, MD)
• Injectivity/Storage Potential
– Permeability, porosity, and thickness
• Containment/Security
– Seal and trap suitable for CO2; No vertical nor lateral (upwards) migration
• Site Details
– Site technical and economic viability – Distance from source, depth to reservoir
• Non‐interference with Existing Natural Resources: oil gas, coal, etc
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MRCSP Regional Geological Setting:
Mid‐West Basins and Arches
Modified from :
Howell and Van der Plujim
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Michigan Basin Structure
Bedrock
Subcrop
Shallow
Deep
0-4500’
600-9000’
1000-10500’
Dundee Fm
(M. Devonian)
Brown Niagaran
(U.- M. Silurian)
Trenton Fm (U. Ordovician)
St. Peter Sst (M. Ordovician)
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As much as 16,000ft of bedrock
sedimentary strata (below glacial drift)
Michigan’s Deep Saline Geological Sequestration Zones
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Deep Sandstone Injection and Confinement Zones
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Mount Simon Sst in Michigan
• Depth in the Subsurface (Overburden Thickness)
– ~3,200 ‐ >15,500 ft
• Thickness (Isopach)
– 0 ‐ >1,500 ft
• Viable Saline Aquifer
– <~6,500‐7,500 ft
Kelley, 2010
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Mount Simon Sst in Michigan
• Storage Capacity Estimates:
– 43 – 3.8 Gmt statewide (depending on assumptions
– as much as 4 Gmt in some counties (depending on assumptions)
*Michigan stationary CO2 emissions in 2009 = ~90 mil. tons of CO2
Mount Simon sequestration zone could accommodate stationary emissions in MI for as much as 400 years!
Kelley, 2010
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St. Peter Sst in Michigan
 Depth in the Subsurface (Overburden Thickness)
 2,600 ‐ >13,000 ft
 Thickness (Isopach)
 0 ‐ >1,100 ft
 Viable Saline Aquifer
 Most prospective on the basin margins
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St. Peter Sst in Michigan
• Storage Capacity Estimates:
– 1.5 – 6 Gmt statewide; (depending on assumptions)
– >263 Mmt in some counties
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Intermediate Carbonate Reef Injection and Confinement Zones
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Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Oil and Gas Fields Northern and Southern Lower Michigan
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Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Oil and Gas Fields Southern Lower Michigan
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Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Oil and Gas Fields Southern Lower Michigan
Top Niagaran Structure (ss)
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Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Oil and Gas Fields
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Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Oil and Gas Fields Northern Lower Michigan
Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Oil and Gas Fields Northern Lower Michigan
Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend Oil Fields In Northern Lower Michigan
• A giant hydrocarbon resource in closely‐spaced, but highly compartmentalized oil and gas fields • Most fields have either reached or are nearing their economic limit in primary production mode
• Over 400 MMBO and 2.4 TCF of natural gas produced 46
Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend Oil Fields In Northern Lower Michigan
• Incremental CO2/EOR for the NPRT is estimated at almost 160 MMBO using CO2/EOR recovery efficiency of 40% relative to primary production. • Two different estimation methodologies indicate greater than 330 Mmt but less than 810 Mmt of GCS capacity is available in the NPRT.
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Shallow Carbonate and Sandstone Injection and Confinement Zones
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Silurian Bass Islands Dolomite
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Middle Devonian Sylvania Sandstone
Sylvania Sandstone Conventional Reservoirs
Storage Capacity in Michigan
1.9 billion metric tonnes
(@ 4% storage efficiency)
Sylvania Sandstone All Reservoir types
Storage Capacity in Michigan
2.9 billion metric tonnes
(@ 4% storage efficiency)
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CO2 Emissions Sources and Sinks
St. Peter Sst
St. Peter Sst
CO2 stationary emission sources in MI (~85 Mmt/year)
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Kelley, 2010
Sources and sinks
Northern Reef Trend
Oil Fields
Sylvania Sst
CO2 stationary emission sources in MI
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Non‐technical Challenges to Implementation of Carbon Capture and Geological Storage
for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction
• Public understanding and acceptance
• Clear legal and regulatory framework to stimulate investor confidence
• Sufficient financial penalty for GHG emissions (exceeding cost of CC&GS; currently ~115‐130% of current power generation costs) through regulation
– Regional, National, and International Cap and Trade Programs/Carbon Tax
Game Changers in the Last Couple Years
—It’s Politics and the Economy, STUPID, including
— The Iron Law of Climate Policy
Roger Pielke Jr. (2009, The Climate Fix)
— “when environmental and economic objectives are placed into opposition with one another in public or political forums, the economic goals win out every time”
— “people are often willing to pay some price for achieving environmental objectives, but that willingness has its limits”
—Major shifts in conventional (fossil energy) supply
—The Shale/Unconventional gas revolution; transformation of the energy market place
—Recent EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) Regulations for Class VI UIC (underground injection control {waste disposal}) CO2 injection well s
—Strong Negative Impact on demonstration projects
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The Economy and Politics
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U.S. Shale Gas and Shale Oil Plays
56
U.S. Shale Gas and Shale Oil Plays
57
Technology Responsible for the
Shale Gas Revolution
Horizontal drilling and hydro‐fracturing technology
58
Implications of Shale Gas Supply Changes
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Implications of Shale Gas Supply Changes
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Implications of Shale Gas Supply Changes
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Some Last Thoughts (Think Globally act Locally)
• Michigan has tremendous Geological Sequestration (as well as CO2/EOR) and biomass production potential
– Hundreds of years of sequestration capacity in many different areas in many different storage zones
– Large agricultural and forestry resources (much fallow land for energy crops)
• Consider:
– Local (township/county?) deployment of high efficiency NGCC (natural gas combined cycle: elec. & steam) turbines (compare to WMU power plant ~10 Mw)
– Gradual Incorporate of biofuels (methane) into fuel mix at NGCC facilities
– Use carbon capture technology (i.e. NG processing plants ) at NG electric power plants and – Use nationally significant geological sequestration opportunities in MI
•
•
•
Validate negative emissions potential Contribute to sustainable electric power production Address rising CO2 emissions during energy tech transition period
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Acknowledgment to:
Congressman Fred Upton and his Staff for support of our work through Congressional Earmark Funding