Climate Change:
The Greatest
Moral Challenge
of our Time
President John Dunn, Western Michigan University
David Karowe, WMU Department of Biology
Ron Kramer, WMU Department of Sociology
Paul Clements, WMU Department of Political Science
This presentation is also posted on the following websites:
http://homepages.wmich.edu/~karowe/Presentations.html
http://www.wmich.edu/humanities/research/interdisciplinary-s12kramer.html
If you have further questions about any of these slides,
please feel free to contact
David Karowe: images #3-37 and 51-67
david.karowe@wmich.edu
Ron Kramer: images 38-41
ronald.kramer@wmich.edu
Paul Clements: images 42-50
paul.clements@wmich.edu
1
Climate change is already happening
Temperature difference relative to 1950-1980
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/
Can climate change be due to “natural variation”?
2
Solar Irradiance
For the last 30 years, solar irradiance has been
decreasing
Since 1900, “natural factors” would have caused
Earth to cool slightly
Bottom line: At least 95% of global warming is due
to human activities
Fossil fuel use
3
Is there any debate among scientists about whether
humans are the primary cause of global warming?
“Most of the global warming in recent decades can
be attributed to human activities."
Scientific organizations endorsing this statement:
United States:
National Academy of Sciences
American Association for the Advancement of Science
American Medical Association
American Meteorological Society
American Institute of Biological Sciences
American Chemical Society
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Physics
Geological Society of America
American Academy of Paediatrics
American College of Preventive Medicine
American Public Health Association
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Environmental Protection Agency
National Center for Atmospheric Research
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Ecological Society of America
American Society of Agronomy
American Society of Plant Biologists
Association of Ecosystem Research Centers
Botanical Society of America
Crop Science Society of America
Natural Science Collections Alliance
4
American Statistical Association
Organization of Biological Field Stations
American Physical Society
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Society of Systematic Biologists
Soil Science Society of America
Federation of American Scientists
National Research Council
National Association of Geoscience Teachers
American Quaternary Association
American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians
American Society for Microbiology
Society of American Foresters
American Astronomical Society
Europe:
European Academy of Sciences and Arts
European Science Foundation
European Geosciences Union
European Physical Society
European Federation of Geologists
Royal Society of the United Kingdom
Academie des Sciences (France)
Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher (Germany)
Accademia dei Lincei (Italy)
Royal Irish Academy
Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Royal Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts
Royal Meteorological Society
British Antarctic Survey
United Kingdom Institute of Biology
5
Other countries (≥ 35):
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Science Council of Japan
Russian Academy of Sciences
Indian National Science Academy
Royal Society of New Zealand
Australian Academy of Sciences
Australian Medical Association
Polish Academy of Sciences
Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil)
Royal Society of Canada
African Academy of Sciences
Caribbean Academy of Sciences
Academy of Sciences of Malaysia
Indonesian Academy of Sciences
Academy of Science of South Africa
Scientific organizations holding a dissenting opinion:
American Institute of Petroleum Geologists
(but not since 2007)
6
Are Americans aware of the strength of the
scientific consensus?
Are Americans aware of the strength of the
scientific evidence?
7
This lack of awareness persists even though major
climate predictions are coming true in the U.S.
e.g. in 2011, ten states had their wettest spring on record
As a result, there was extensive flooding
8
Much of the U.S. had an unusually warm summer
In late September, 43% of U.S. was in drought
September 27, 2011
South central states experienced “Exceptional Drought”
9
Right now, 61% of U.S. is in drought
September
27, 2011
April 10, 2012
This year, 23 states had their warmest March on record
10
What does the future hold?
Climate change is very likely to accelerate
Earth is expected to warm by at least 2-4o C by 2100
“Business
as usual”
4o
2o
Alternate
energy
sources
11
Will a 4-5o temperature rise matter?
When Earth was 5o cooler:
In the future, most summers are likely to be hotter
than any experienced thus far
12
In the future, most summers are likely to be hotter
than any experienced thus far
For many Midwestern cities,
dramatic increases predicted in the number of
Chicago 1995-like heat waves
- responsible for ~ 700 deaths in 1995
Before 1990: 0.01 per year
Today:
0.13 per year
2070-2100:
2.74 per year
13
Much of the world is likely to experience much more
frequent and stronger droughts by the 2060s
Ex
ce
Ex ptio
t r e na
Se me l
v
Mo ere
de
Mi rate
ld
dr
ou
gh
t
1950-1959
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
ex
ce
ex ptio
tre na
se me l
v
m ere
od
e
m rat
ild e
dr
ou
gh
t
2000-2009
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
14
ex
ce
ex ptio
tre na
se me l
v
m ere
od
e
m rat
ild e
dr
ou
gh
t
2060-2069
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
Developed countries are causing the problem, but
developing countries experience most health costs
Countries proportional to
CO2 emissions (1950-2000)
Countries proportional to
climate-sensitive health effects
15
Many more species are predicted to be
“climate losers” than “climate winners”
Tree species richness is predicted to decline
substantially throughout the U.S. by 2100
Current
2100
16
In Michigan, 8 of the 15 most abundant tree species
are predicted to decline by at least 50%
sugar maple
balsam fir
big tooth and trembling aspen
paper birch
northern white cedar
36 Michigan bird species predicted to decline by 75-100%
common loon
evening
grosbeak
white-throated
sparrow
red-breasted
nuthatch
blackburnian
warbler
yellow-bellied
sapsucker
magnolia
warbler
junco
17
By 2080, climate change is predicted to cause the
extinction of 20-40% of large African mammals
Possible loss of all coral reefs with 3o rise
and >650 ppm CO2
coral bleaching
- due to ocean warming and acidification
18
Globally, if we allow Earth to warm by 3o C,
20-50% of species may be committed to extinction
Climate Change: The Greatest
Moral Challenge of our Time
Ron Kramer
The Moral Issues
19
The Moral Challenge
A matter of Social Justice:
•Moral obligation to future generations
•Ecological debt to global South
•Concern for the suffering of the poor in all
nations
•Moral obligation to other species
We need to develop what Brueggemann calls
A Prophetic Imagination:
• Struggle to imagine the real
•Confront the truth/Develop awareness
•“Penetrate the numbness, Penetrate the despair”
•Deal with the sense of loss and accompanying
grief
20
The Call to Action
• Give voice to “Hope filled possibility”
• Responsibility/Empowerment
• Doing what we can/Joining together
• Transformative social movement
• Howard Zinn-lessons from history
Climate Change: The Greatest
Moral Challenge of our Time
The Politics
Paul Clements
21
The United States is the worst offender
Americans just waking up to the reality, not yet recognizing
the obligations
Consequences in the future will be much worse than
experience so far
Effective response not possible without strong international
agreement
American politicians, including our Congressman Fred Upton,
are obstructing action toward an international agreement
Atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide
parts per million
38,000BC – 1900 AD
180 – 300 (up & down)
1930 – 1985
300  330
1985 – 2010
330  390
2010 – 2050
390  450 (or higher)
2050 – 2100
??? depends on us
22
We Americans need to reduce our carbon
dioxide emissions by 85% by 2050
… and the Chinese need to cut theirs in half
Reductions in carbon dioxide emissions will be inadequate
without a strong international agreement
•
•
•
•
•
Emission reductions
Taxes to support other countries’ adaptation
Technology transfers
Monitoring implementation
New international institutions – strong and intrusive
Treaty needed to motivate bitter medicine
23
Americans will find this difficult …
but as we are the one world superpower and the
worst offender, the world needs us to take the
lead.
But ….
Mitt Romney, 2012:
“My view is that we don't know what's causing
climate change on this planet.”
24
2011
Representative Fred Upton, chair of House Energy and
Commerce Committee, sponsored bill (H. 910)
barring Environmental Protection Agency from
regulating greenhouse gasses, argued this regulation
would threaten the American economy
League of Conservation Voters gave Fred Upton a score
of zero for pro-environment votes
Los Angeles Times named Fred Upton Congress’s #1
enemy of the earth
No treaty condemns Africans, Asians and others
to immense hardship,
and condemns our grandchildren to a much
harsher world.
25
What can I do to minimize climate change?
To avoid worst scenarios, we need to rapidly and
substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Target: 80% reduction by 2050
Urgent need for alternate energy sources
Solar
Wind
26
Wind power could supply 16 times current U.S.
electricity demand using only onshore windmills
- Michigan can supply 12 times our current use
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is very promising
Central tower
Parabolic trough
27
A CSP solar array 100 x 100 miles could provide
all of U.S. electricity needs today
- excess energy captured during the day could be stored
as heat and used to produce electricity at night
A small portion of the Sahara desert could supply all
of the world’s electricity
28
Who has the largest impact on Earth’s future?
Fred Upton is “…
one of the biggest
threats to planet
Earth on planet
Earth.”
LA Times,
December 2011
1. Contact your representatives!
2. Vote
29
3. Educate others
4. Next time, buy a more fuel-efficient car
20 mpg
34 mpg
30 mpg
50 mpg
- would reduce CO2 emissions by 56 million tons per year
30
5. Weatherize your house: weather-strip, adequately
insulate attic, and replace single-pane windows
with triple-pane windows
- would reduce CO2 emissions by 25 million tons per year
6. Next time, buy energy star appliances
- would reduce CO2 emissions by 15 million tons per year
31
7. HVAC equipment: when necessary, replace older
furnace and AC unit with Energy Star model
- would reduce CO2 emissions by 12 million tons per year
8. Change to compact fluorescent light bulbs
- one per household = taking 6 million cars off the road
32
9. Turn the thermostat down (winter) or up (summer)
- can save 7 tons of CO2 per year for a family of four
10. Buy green electricity
- one GreenBlock = driving 3,300 fewer miles per year
($1.50/month)
33
Worst case scenario:
34