Small n Evolving Structures: Dyadic Interaction between Intimates William A. Griffin Shana Schmidt Family & Human Development Arizona State University There are numerous ways to test and refine models of social processes. The most common is the “statistical approach” (Gilbert & Troitzsch, 1999); it uses inductive or deductive reasoning or both to pair the observed behavior with some quantitative assessment of the system (e.g., correlations, variance, covariance) measured at a single point in time (Gilbert & Troitzsch, 1999; Kohler, 2000). Another recently developed method of testing models of social dynamics is computer simulation (Axelrod, 1997; Hannon & Ruth, 1997; Gilbert & Troitzsch, 1999; Kohler & Gumerman, 2000; Morrison, 1991). Axelrod (1997) refers to this latter method as the third way of doing science (inductive and deductive being the first two). Like deduction, it starts with a set of explicit assumptions -- but it does not prove theorems. This method instead generates simulated data that can be analyzed inductively. But unlike the inductive method, the simulated data come from a rigorously specified set of rules rather than direct measurement of the real world. Induction seeks to find patterns while deductive methods want to determine the consequences of assumptions -- whereas computer simulations allow experimentation and aid intuition (Axelrod, 1997; Hannon & Ruth, 1997). Kohler (2000) views simulations as generators of a phenomenon that demonstrate possible casual pathways, and Axelrod (1997) views simulations as tools to enrich our understanding of fundamental processes. Either of these complimentary positions clearly states the need and value of computer simulations of social processes (Kohler & Gumerman, 2000; Belew & Mitchell, 1996). The core of our work is an attempt to understand and model the reciprocal evolutionary dynamics ubiquitous to all social processes (Conti et al., 1998). As such, the research is informed by multiple scientific disciplines ranging from economics (Arthur, 1994), political science (Cederman, 1997; 2002) and sociology (Gilbert & Troitzsch, 1999) to computer science (Feber, 1999), physics (Rocha, 1999) and applied mathematics (Newman, 2003). During the last decade the traditional boundaries between these disciplines have been broached by a general scientific methodology -- agent based modeling (ABM). ABM is a common language, and with it, comes common assumptions (Axelrod, 1997; Casti, 1997). Among the relevant assumptions, one is most pertinent to this research: social processes are complex continuously evolving entities that adaptively configure themselves according to basic rules that, in turn, modify the environment housing the agents that comprise the entities. This assumption lays the foundation for our study; at the general level, we investigate social processes, and at the specific level, we want to know how dyads – ranging from adult couples to child peers -- form and change. From this foundation we have several broad questions that focus our work: How do dyads emerge? That is, how is the state of a dyadic relationship not obtainable from simply examining two individuals interacting? What is the utility of maintaining an extended relationship? Relationships derive from multiscale interactions – ranging from second-to-second to day-by-day, and eventually, extending into years. What is the morphological correspondence over these scales? As evident from these questions, our research objectives extend beyond merely studying dyads: we address questions about social processes that are germane to all human interactions involving micro-exchanges of social rewards and the diversity of shifting reinforcers – and how these crucial processes change over time. Agent Based Models in Small n Dynamics An agent based model is one that has agents implementing social interactions according to a set of rules constructed by the investigator consistent with either theory or observed data. Agents are processes implemented on a computer that have autonomy and the ability to interact with other agents and their environment, their actions are goal directed, and they evolve. These characteristics permit the agents to engage in complex social interactions unguided by the investigator. A model usually contains many agents, ranging from tens to thousands, with each being slightly different from the other on the attributes considered relevant by the investigator. This ensemble of autonomous heterogeneous agents allows social interaction to be computationally constructed and its outcomes observed based on internalized social norms, internal behavioral rules, and data acquired on the basis of agent experience (Macy & Willer, 2002). Using a basic complex systems paradigm, the analyst is able to explore the possible generative mechanisms underlying the observed phenomena (Holland, 1995). Most importantly, this creation of complex adaptive systems in an artificial world permits the analyst to explore emergent macro phenomena -- structural patterns not reducible to or evident in the properties of the micro-level agents (Rocha, 1999). It is the recursive agent-to-agent and agent-toenvironment interaction over time, each modifying and co-adapting to the other, that creates the critical and continuously evolving macro patterns that social and behavioral scientists study. For example, over the past two years we have been developing PlayMate, an agent based modeling program that simulates playgroup formation in children ages 4 to 6 years (Griffin, Hanish, Martin, & Fabes, 2004). In the fall of each year, new and returning children come together in our child development lab where many eventually settle into groups of semi-stable play partners. Factors contributing to the formation of these playgroups are currently unknown. The children’s social environment differs slightly each year because of variation in playgroup formations, and these formations derive from the stability of who plays with whom. Both the groupings and the resulting structures evolve as the year progresses. To keep the model simple and results tractable, PlayMate uses static (e.g., sex) and dynamic (e.g., sociability) child attributes to modify the likelihood of interacting with another child. The effects modeled for these traits or attributes can be modified to represent postulated developmental shifts. Agent based modeling provides a mechanism for simulating this type of evolution (Griffin, 2003). In modeling the emergent behavior, we assume that individual child attributes influence the quality and subsequent likelihood of peer interactions. It is framed around a state transition model, where a child is always in one of four states: (1) playing with another child; (2) playing with an adult (a teacher); (3) playing alone after (1); or (4) playing alone after (2). Early in our work it became obvious that solitary play, either (3) or (4), occupies about 20-25% of a child’s time, and the propensity to enter and exit this state varies according to (1) or (2). Analyses comparing the simulated and the realized data indicate that the current implementation of PlayMate effectively captures the general formation of specific groups within the classroom (Griffin et al., 2004). Our investigation of children forming playgroups incorporates the key assumptions, objectives, and goals of agent based models. These fundamental features of an ABM are: Abduction, rather than induction or deduction, is used to infer the plausible relationship between the artificial world created by rule generated agent behavior and the real world. Putative theoretical assumptions are converted to a set of rules – a computer program – outlining the behavior of the agents to each other and the environment. Each agent possesses a strategy set that is invoked during the interaction with another agent; agent-to-agent interaction determines and is reciprocally influenced by the emergence of structure as agent and structure co-evolve within the environment. Multiple interactions among heterogeneous agents are studied to examine the emerging structures that evolve for the particular set of rules implemented by the agents. As exchanges and interactions occur in the simulation, agents and the rules they carry evolve, producing complex social processes analogous to those found in the real world. In their simplest form, agents represent discrete entities that interact with other agents and their environment via algorithms; in essence, sets of if-then statements configured to behave in a putative manner consistent with theory or investigator intuition. In their more complex form, agents socialize, aggregate, and evolve into embodiments of phenomena (i.e., cultures, mobs, flocks, economies), and collectively act as a singularity. And most complex of all: the agency of the collective modifies the base set of if-then rules residing in the individual agents. These evolving dynamical processes with hierarchical levels of reciprocal influence are the bane and the blessing of agent based modeling. Shifting alignments and evolving aggregated forms generate behavioral compositions reminiscent of reality (Horgan, 1995). These displays of dynamism represent credible arguments for using computational science to capture interorganism interdependencies, sociality, evolution, and population level propensities; in effect, agent based models provide a mechanism for depicting complex adaptive systems (Bankes, 2002), and yet, to date, no models have been forwarded that examine dyadic processes. Moreover, a model usually contains many agents, ranging from tens to thousands, with each being slightly different from the other on the attributes considered relevant by the investigator. In fact, Page (2002) has argued that agent diversity is a key component for developing realistic models of social complexity and population level uncertainty. Modeling the dynamics of children playing was our initial focus because we assumed that it would be simpler to model than dyads; multiple independent agents, each assessed on a variety of attributes, and the probability of playing is determined by the similarity of attribute level, recency of play, and gender preference. Preliminary findings are robust and closely replicate realized data (Griffin, Hanish, Martin, & Fabes, 2004). Married adults (and other configurations of established dyads), on the other hand, bring into an interaction a history bound by emotion, where an action at each time point is inherently linked to individual cognitions and attributions (Bradbury & Fincham, 1990) and distal and proximal goals that reciprocally intermingle between spouses. This forms a unique dynamic system that is difficult to simulate (Axelrod, 1997; Pearson & Boudarel, 2001; Thomas & Malone, 1979), owing to its absence in the literature. Work in our lab over the past several years has shown that it is possible to create salient indices of dyadic interaction (Griffin, 2000), and from the indices, pattern recognition software can be used to classify distressed from nondistressed couples (Griffin, 2002). We have laid the foundation for determining what is important in a couple’s interaction. From the extracted features, the final benefit arises – the identification of the behavioral and affect tendencies that need to be simulated to regenerate the process. We are presently developing a prototype simulation for the dyadic interaction. The Critical Dyad: Data Collection and Coding of Marital Interaction At the Marital Interaction Lab at Arizona State University we began collecting couple and family interactional data fifteen years ago. During that period we have conducted numerous studies examining affect and behavioral expression in marital and post-marital interaction, and the role of disease in marital (e.g., Parkinson’s) and family (e.g., Asthma) interactions (Griffin, 2002; see Griffin, Greene, & Decker-Haas, 2003 for an overview). Across studies, the general methodology for collecting adult dyadic data has remained the same; a brief overview is given below. Procedure. Couples were seated in a room constructed to resemble a small living area containing prints, curtains, plants, and two chairs in the center of the room. Two unobtrusive, partially concealed, remotely controlled cameras were mounted on the walls at head level behind each chair. All audio-visual and mixing equipment was controlled from a room adjacent to the interaction. Video signals were combined producing a split screen image with audio being obtained from lavaliere microphones worn by each spouse. Interaction Task. For married couples, the task is always the same. Couples initially are given the Areas of Disagreement questionnaire (i.e., standard Strodbeck’s revealed differences task; see Gottman, 1979). Each marital partner selects a list of potential disagreement areas typically associated with marital relationships and ranks the items according to the level and duration of disagreement. Couples are then instructed on how to use the Affect Generation computers in the lab. After they become familiar with the procedure, they return to their chairs. With the lab assistant's help, the couple selects the three most common topics from the list of problem areas, ranks them from most to least distressing, and agrees to discuss them. The lab assistant then instructs the couple to engage in a 12- or 15-minute discussion (depends on the study) and attempt to resolve the issues according to their rankings. The assistant leaves the room and uses a visual or audio signal to tell the couple to commence their discussion. After the allotted time expires, each dyad member immediately and independently rates his or her affect. Affect Ratings. Spouses were separated immediately after each conversation, and then simultaneously reviewed the videotaped splitscreen playback, and rated his or her own affect during the interaction. The videotape was played back through a specially configured microcomputer using software that overlays a 9-level, color-coded, vertical bar on the 19” color video monitor. This overlay was positioned beside the face on the monitor of the individual reviewing the tape. The affect rating ranges from extreme negative (red), through neutral (gray) to extreme positive (blue), and is controlled by a pc mouse. Extreme negative is at the monitor bottom, neutral is at mid-monitor, and positive is at the top of the monitor. The width of the bar varies at each affect level (5 pixel increments) corresponding to the intensity of the affect, neutral being the thinnest. The widest affect level is 28 pixels wide (1.5 cm). As the reviewer moves the mouse, the affect bar is high-lighted corresponding to the degree and direction of the affect. For example, as the individual's affect rating becomes more negative (positive), the mouse is pulled back (pushed forward) and the appropriate affect level becomes high-lighted, and as the high-lighted area moves further from neutral, the width of the level expands to reflect intensity. During the review of the tape, and viewing only his or her own rating, each spouse was asked to move the mouse to reflect affect experience during the interaction (i.e., "How were you feeling at each moment?"). Software recorded the location of the bar position every second, providing a continuous measure of affect throughout the interaction. Prior to the first interaction task each couple was taught how to use the rating system. Additional information about this data acquisition technique and assumptions about validity is in Griffin (1993). Coding. We initially code Talk Turn; reliability is in the mid-.9s (kappa). These delineate the conversational structure at each turn into the roles of speaker or listener. Nonverbals are then coded for each talk turn. This is a listener category containing three positive attending behaviors (i.e., eye gaze, head nod, and back channel) and one negative contemptuous behavior, eye roll. (We also code gaze for the speaker to examine if the speaker is looking when talking.) Basically, we include this category to determine if the speaker has reason to perceive the listener as not listening, being disrespectful, or worse, being contemptuous. This impression by the speaker may or may not be evident by his or her action, but it usually influences the affect rating, which then provides an opportunity to compare (e.g., ratio) the speaker versus listener values in either real time or averaged across the talk turn. Similarly, by using the Verbal codes, we add additional dimensionality by assessing whether the speaker is being generally helpful or facilitating (i.e., Problem Solution, Agree) or destructive (i.e., Negative (e.g., Hostile statement expressing unambiguous dislike or disapproval of a specific behavior engaged in by the partner. A comment intended to demean or embarrass the other person.). These are also compared to the listener attending behavior, or examined for internally consistency with the self-reported affect. In effect, at each unitized time point, either a talk turn or in real-time, we have knowledge of how each person was feeling, the presence or absence of constructive or destructive statements, and attending behavior by the listener. In composite form, these coded behaviors form an index of the process at time tx that permit the reconstruction, visualization, and pattern classification of dyadic interactions (see Griffin, 2000; 2002). Estimates of these dynamic processes are summarized as multi-dimensional vectors representing a real-time multivariate index conveying relevant information about the system -ranging from its size, complexity, uniqueness, evolution, and possible trajectory. Reconstructing the dynamics of dyadic interaction As evident from the brief discussion above, agent based models typically consist of a huge number of simple agents implementing rules that, through their collective action, generate emergent phenomena. With dyadic behavior however, the generation of phenomena derives from the interaction of only two agents; consequently, the question becomes: How can agent based modeling methodology be used to generate realistic, and theoretically defensible, simulations? If we assume that the feelings of one spouse toward the other spouse is generated by an attribution set (Bradbury 2002) – a cognitive structure that evolved during the couple’s history and that is maintained by current events -- and that the internal feelings generated by the attribution set are expressed as observable verbal statements and nonverbal behaviors, then it could be argued that such overt behaviors accurately and fully reflect internal affect states or that, at minimum, they reflect some leakage of those emotions. More importantly, especially for the modeler of a dynamic system, is that behaviors and emotions in a couple are inexorably interrelated, each reflecting the same phenomena – the quality of the relationship. We assume, based on ample evidence, that happily married couples interact differently than unhappily married couples (see, e.g., Heyman, 2001). This suggests that dyads, of any type or configuration, can be categorized by their qualitative state, and the criteria for categorization would be based on measurable characteristics observable during interactions with each other. The critical decision in developing a simulation of dyadic interaction is determining the generating process that is reflective of, and yet simultaneously modifies, the quality of the dyadic state. Our current model presupposes that at each turn in an interaction – either as clearly demarcated talk turns (constructed from lab tasks), or the more fluid exchanges seen in interactions between two people – the mechanism driving the behavior in the next small increment of time is the reduction of state ambiguity. In effect, we assume that all dyadic interaction has as its objective the disambiguation of the state of the dyad. We assume that each affective or behavioral nuance expressed during each moment-to-moment exchange simultaneously reflects and generates the dyadic state and that each participant directs these features to minimize the ambiguity. By assuming that state disambiguation is the generating process of dyadic interaction, we can focus on developing algorithms that reduce state ambiguity between the members of a dyad at each moment in the interaction. However the uncertainty inherent in an evolving system containing encoding and decoding errors, attributional biases, differential interests and goals for the dyad insure that some amount of ambiguity always remains. This supposition invokes two additional assumptions that are necessary to model a dyad in real time: (1) a state, as defined by the composite behaviors generated by the dyad members at each moment in the interaction, has Markov properties (i.e., the history of the system is encapsulated in the present state), and (2) transitions of individual affective and behavioral responses embedded in the state are stochastic and not deterministic. Consequently, if we allow the individual’s response set (e.g., verbal, nonverbal, affect) to represent attributes, then an agent based model can be implemented as an extended interaction of multiple agents, two at a time. From these extended interactions, the state of the dyadic system continuously evolves in response to the ambiguity generated by the exchanges. We are currently developing several methods of modeling this process. Among these, we describe one below that successfully combines the prerequisite characteristics of agent based modeling with a mechanism that can potentially generate the behavior patterns seen in married couples. We define an agent as an individually generated code index A where e.g., A={Affect, Gaze, Verbal} for the speaker, and A = {Affect, Gaze, Nonverbal} for the listener. Each code comprising the index is assigned a numerical value (see Griffin 2000; 2002 for details), and in composite, this set forms a string (or vector, depending on its usage). Agents representing possible combinations of responses are stored in a large n-dimensional matrix, where n refers to the number of codes being used to describe the interaction of each person. Each participant in the dyad can be thought of as being composed of a landscape of agents. An initial startup response for each person is selected based on known interaction propensities as a function of marital quality. These response sets, one from each interactant, are compared and the information is inserted back into the matrix where a new response set is generated. This represents one interaction episode (i.e., a talk turn) containing a speaker and a listener. Each iteration attempts to reduce state ambiguity by generating a new response set that is closer to the response set displayed by the other person in the previous iteration (e.g., gaze longer with higher affect rating); each response set however is not optimally derived, and by design, contains heterogeneity. Moreover, the response generated is inserted back into the matrix, increasing its likelihood of future selection. In effect, the response to the ambiguity modifies the likelihood that generated it. This allows the agents and the system to evolve over time in response to environmental information. This “exchange and modify” procedure is iterated several hundred times to simulate the interaction of a couple. These synthetic data are then compared to realized data collected in the laboratory. More colloquially, think of two sentries from opposing camps meeting and exchanging information about ideas held in their respective camps – the more similar the information exchanged, the less ambiguous the situation. After the meeting, the sentries return to their respective camps with information about two factors that describe and summarize the relationship between camps: (1) how far apart the two camps are (assessed via string edit distance (Levenshtein)); and (2) the direction of the difference (e.g., sentry 1 has a higher value message than sentry 2; this are assessed by vector length). After returning to the camp a large number of agents are polled from sections of the camp that are known to understand the position held by the opposing camp; an aggregate response is generated from this polling and a new sentry is sent out to convey the position of the camp. 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