PLAD 7100
Political Research With Quantitative Methods
Fall 2011
Monday & Wednesday 2–3:15
Gibson Hall S041
http://collab.itc.virginia.edu
Nicholas Winter
nwinter@virginia.edu
http://faculty.virginia.edu/nwinter
S385 Gibson Hall, South Lawn
924-6994
Office hours: Wednesdays 3:30–4:30
and by appointment
“Inductive logic is unlike deductive or symbolic logic. In deductive reasoning, when you
have true premises and a valid argument, the conclusion must be true too. Valid deductive
arguments do not take risks. Inductive logic takes risks. You can have true premises, a
good argument, but a false conclusion. Inductive logic uses probability to analyse that kind
of risky argument.”
— Ian Hacking. 2001. An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic, xi.
This course will introduce you to some basic theory and methods for conducting quantitative analyses in
political science, with a focus on statistics and econometrics. The central theme of the course consists in
applying quantitative methods to explore and evaluate political science theories.
My goal in this class is provide this basic familiarity with statistics and econometrics for studying politics, and
to lay a solid foundation for further coursework for those who choose to pursue quantitative analysis in more
depth.
Thus, we will begin at the beginning—with basic probability theory—then move through single-variable
statistical analysis, and conclude with regression analysis. The lectures and problem sets will include a
moderate amount of statistical theory, because I believe strongly that familiarity with the underlying theory is
critical to the smart application of statistical techniques. The later problem sets will shift the emphasis
toward application and data analysis.
There are no prerequisites for the course. The course will include some mathematical content; however, no
math beyond high school algebra is assumed before you begin.
Course Requirements
Requirements for this course include lectures, reading, homework assignments, a midterm exam, and a final
exam.
The midterm will be held in class as noted on the syllabus below. The final is scheduled by the University for
Friday, December 16, 2–5pm. As this is the very last day of exams, we will attempt to reschedule it for an
earlier date and time. You will be allowed one page of notes (front only) for the midterm, and two pages (i.e.,
front and back of a single sheet) for the final.
Understanding statistics requires learning by doing, and for that reason there are a number of homework
assignments—about eight during the term. The early assignments will consists of “paper-and-pencil”
exercises to help solidify your understanding of basic concepts and procedures; the later assignments will ask
you to conduct analysis of real political science data that I provide. I encourage group work on homework
assignments, although each student should write up and turn in his or her own set of answers.
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PLAD 7100 - Fall 2011
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Because the material in this course is cumulative, attending class consistently and staying current on the
reading and homework is absolutely vital for your success. Therefore, no incompletes will be given in this
course. In addition, anyone auditing the course is strongly encouraged to attend consistently and to complete
the reading and homework assignments.
The statistical software we will use is Stata. The software and documentation are available on the computers
in the Politics Department computer lab in Gibson Hall, as well as on some computers in other ITC computer
labs (see http://www.itc.virginia.edu/labs/listSoftLocations.php?soft_title_id=125 for a listing). Stata is also
available through the “UVa Hive,” a virtual computer lab that you can connect to remotely. See
http://itc.virginia.edu/hive/ for details on installing the appropriate software on your computer (and your
iPad!) to access the Hive.
Though you do not need to purchase your own copy of Stata, you may wish to do so, especially if you
anticipate further empirical work beyond this course. It is available for Windows, Mac, and Unix platforms at
a discount through ITC. See http://www.itc.virginia.edu/research/stata/ for purchase information. (Note
that the student version of Stata, so-called “small Stata,” will not be sufficient to analyze the data sets for some of
the problem sets; you will need the standard, “Intercooled” version of Stata.)
Readings
There are several required books for this course. They should be available from the campus bookstore; used
copies of the Wonnacott and Wonnacott book are also readily available on-line at a substantial discount.
Achen, Christopher H. 1982. Interpreting and Using Regression. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Fox, John. 1991. Regression Diagnostics. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Wonnacott, Thomas H. and Ronald J. Wonnacott. 1990. Introductory Statistics for Business and
Economics. Fourth Edition. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
In addition, we will read substantial portions of the following book, which is unfortunately out of print. I will
make available copies of the relevant sections.
Kelejian, Harry H. and Wallace E. Oates. 1989. Introduction to Econometrics: Principles and Applications.
Third Edition. New York: Harper and Row.
Copies of assigned articles will be available on-line.
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PLAD 7100 - Fall 2011
University of Virginia
Homework schedule (subject to change)
Assignments will be posted in the “Resources” section of the web site, and will be collected in class unless
otherwise noted.
Assignment
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six
Seven
Eight
Distributed
Due
9/7
9/21
9/28
9/19
10/3
10/12
10/5
10/19
10/24
10/31
11/14
10/19
10/26
11/9
11/14
12/5
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PLAD 7100 - Fall 2011
University of Virginia
Course Schedule and Outline
August 24: Introduction to the Course
August 29 & 31: Basic Probability & Descriptive Statistics
Wonnacott & Wonnacott, skim chapter 1, read sections 2-1, 2-2, 2-3 & 2-6; chapter 3
September 5 & 7: Probability Distributions and Random Variables
Wonnacott & Wonnacott, chapters 4-5
September 12 & 14: Sampling and Point Estimation & Introduction to Statistical Computing using Stata
Wonnacott & Wonnacott, chapters 6-7
Optional: Stata Documentation; in particular Getting Started with Stata and selections from the Stata
User’s Manual
September 19 & 21: Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing
Wonnacott & Wonnacott, chapters 8-9
Cohen, Jacob. 1994. “The Earth is Round (p<.05)” American Psychologist 49(12):997-1003.
Available from Collab.
September 26 & 28: Univariate & Bivariate Data analysis
Wonnacott & Wonnacott, section 2-7
Kastellec, Jonathan P., and Eduardo L. Leoni. 2007. “Using Graphs Instead of Tables in Political Science.”
Perspectives on Politics 5(4), pages 755-763.
Epstein, Lee, Andrew D. Martin, and Matthew M. Schneider. 2006. “On the Effective Communication of the
Results of Empirical Studies, Part I.” Vanderbilt Law Review 59(6):1811-71.
Epstein, Lee, Andrew D. Martin, and Christina L. Boyd. 2007. “On the Effective Communication of the
Results of Empirical Studies, Part II.” Vanderbilt Law Review 60(3), pages 801-31.
October 3 & 5: Tabular Data Analysis, Chi-Square; Multivariate Analysis
Wonnacott & Wonnacott, chapter 17
October 10: UVa Reading Day (no class)
October 12: Catch up / review for midterm
October 17: Midterm Exam in class
October 19: Bivariate Regression
Wonnacott & Wonnacott, chapter 11 and 12-1, 12-2
Achen, pages 1-37
Kelejian & Oates, pages 1-9, 25-33, and 43-86
October 24 & 26: Bivariate Regression: Hypothesis Testing, Confidence Intervals, Prediction
Wonnacott & Wonnacott, 12-3 through 12-5
Achen, pages 37-51
Kelejian & Oates, pages 89-104 and 123-131
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PLAD 7100 - Fall 2011
University of Virginia
October 31 & November 2: Multiple Regression I
Wonnacott & Wonnacott, chapter 13
Kelejian & Oates, chapter 4 (134-161) and 200-202
Fox, pages 1-10
November 7 & 9: Multiple regression II
Kastellec, Jonathan P., and Eduardo L. Leoni. 2007. “Using Graphs Instead of Tables in Political Science.”
Perspectives on Politics 5(4), pages 763-768.
Epstein, Lee, Andrew D. Martin, and Christina L. Boyd. 2007. “On the Effective Communication of the
Results of Empirical Studies, Part II.” Vanderbilt Law Review 60(3), pages 831-46.
November 14 & 16: Regression Topics: colinearity, dummy variables, interaction terms
Achen, pages 51-79
Fox, pages 10-21 and 75-80
King, Gary. 1986. “How Not to Lie With Statistics: Avoiding Common Mistakes in Quantitative Political
Science.” American Journal of Political Science 30(3):666-87.
Available from Collab; also from http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=00925853%28198608%2930%3A3%3C666%3AHNTLWS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-3.
Kelejian & Oates, pages 205-211 and 178-186
November 21, 28 & 30: Regression Topics: non-linear relationships, outliers, model specification
Wonnacott & Wonnacott, chapters 14
Fox, chapters 4 & 7
Bartels, Larry M. 1990. “Five Approaches to Model Specification.” Political Methodologist 3(2):2-6.
Available from the course web site.
Kelejian & Oates, pages 251-256
December 5: Review, catch up, and “where do we go from here?”
Friday, December 16: Final Exam (2–5pm) unless we reschedule it.
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