Anticipating 2025: Changing Technologies and Intermodal Linkages in Aerial, Highway, Marine, and Rail Transportation in the Northeast Corridor, University of Delaware, October 19 2007 The Insertion of BostWash within the Global and National Freight Frameworks Jean-Paul Rodrigue Associate Professor, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA Email: ecojpr@hofstra.edu Paper available at: http://people.hofstra.edu/faculty/Jean-paul_Rodrigue Freight Frameworks: From Global to Local Production Distribution Global Regional Gateways Corridors Local Consumption Terminals Commodity Chains Transportation Integrated Transport Systems Insertion in the Global Trade Framework Imbalanced Trade Imbalanced Container Flows Commodity Chains UPS Willow Springs Distribution Center, Chicago Containerized Cargo Flows along Major Trade Routes, 2005 11.7 Europe 8.9 Imports (Million TEUs) Exports (Million TEUs) Million TEUs Growth (2000-2005) 17.2 USA 6.1 9.9 13.9 (+148%) 4.3 (+30%) Asia 23.8 Balance of Containerized Cargo Flows along Major Trade Routes, 1995-2006 (in millions of TEUs) 0 1995 1996 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 -18 Europe/USA Asia/Europe Asia/USA 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Sectors of American Imports of Asian Goods Through Maritime Container Shipping, 2004 (in TEUs) Apparel Textiles Machinery Electrical equipment Toys Shoes Tires Auto parts Appliances Electronics Furniture Big box retailer 0 300,000 600,000 900,000 1,200,000 1,500,000 1,800,000 Commodity Chains and Added Value High Globalization Added value R&D Sales / Service Marketing Branding Distribution Design Concept Manufacturing Low Commodity chain Logistics Insertion in the Transportation and Logistical Framework Gateways and Corridors Containerization and the Velocity of Freight Shipping Networks Global Port Operators APL Distribution Center, Shenzhen, China Elements of the Maritime / Land Interface Maritime Freight Distribution Foreland (Shipping Network) Inland Freight Distribution Port System Gateways Road Rail Corridors and Hubs Hinterland (FDC) Coastal / Fluvial Traffic at the 50 Largest Container Ports, 2005 Seattle Tacoma Long Beach New York/New Jersey Oakland Hampton Roads Charleston Savannah Los Angeles Dubai Jeddah Nhava Sheva Salalah Colombo TEU Less than 2 million 2 to 4 million Santos 4 to 7 million 7 to 10 million Melbourne More than 10 million Pacific Asia Tianjin Laem Chabang Quingdao Dalian Port Kalang Tanjung PelepasSingapore Ho Chi Minh Hong Kong Shenzhen Guangzhou Xiamen Hamburg Bremen/Bremerhafen Rotterdam Antwerp Felixstowe Europe LeHavre Shanghai Ningbo Busan Kaohsiung Keelung Kobe Nagoya Tanjung Priok Manila Tokyo Yokohama Barcel ona Valencia Gioia Tauro Algeciras World Container Traffic, 1980-2005. Reaching Peak Growth? Adoption Acceleration Peak Growth Maturity 1000 2002-2010(?) 900 2010(?) - 800 Million TEU 700 1992-2002 600 500 1966-1992 Divergence 400 300 200 100 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 The Velocity of Freight Transshipment Speed Speed barrier Future improvements Pull Logistics Logistical threshold Containerization Push Logistics Shipment Speed Three Major Pendulum Routes Serviced by OOCL, 2006 Oakland Los Angeles New York Norfolk Charleston 27 Days Hamburg Le Havre Rotterdam Southampton Genoa Fos Barcelona Tokyo Shanghai Ningbo Kaohsiung Hong Kong Laem Chabang 49 Days Atlantic Express (ATX) European Union / Mediterranean (EUM) Note: Paths are approximate South China Express (SCX) Singapore Port Kelang 39 Days Majort Port Holdings, 2007 Dedicated Maritime Container Terminals APM Terminals Dubai Ports World Hutchison Port Holdings Port of Singapore Authority Eurogate Stevedoring Services of America Pacific Asia Europe Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University Insertion in the Continental Framework Hinterlands Trade Corridors Landbridges APL “Australia” entering San Francisco Harbor Hinterland Setting and Major Economic Regions North America Western Europe Coastal concentration Landbridge connections Inland concentration Coastal gateways Hinterland intensity Freight Corridor hierarchy East and Southeast Asia Coastal concentration Low hinterland access Gateway hierarchy Main North American Trade Corridors and Metropolitan Freight Centers Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Winnipeg Seattle Halifax Portland Montreal Minneapolis Toronto Boston Detroit Chicago Salt Lake City Philadelphia Pittsburgh Baltimore San Francisco Denver Cincinnati Kansas City St. Louis Norfolk Charlotte Los Angeles San Diego New York Cleveland Oklahoma Ci ty Memphis Phoenix Atl anta Charleston Savannah Dallas Hub Gateway Houston New Orleans Miami Potential Location of Major Transmodal Rail Facilities: Maritime Gateways and Inland Hubs Calgary Vancouver Seattle Regina Winnipeg Tacoma Montreal Minneapolis Chicago Oakland Kansas City New York/New Jersey St Louis Hampton Roads Memphis Long Beach Los Angeles Dallas / Fort Worth Houston Charleston Savannah Maritime Rail Gateway Transmodal Rail Hub Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University Beware of Future Expectations: The Fallacies of Linear Thinking Beware of Future Expectations: The Fallacies of Linear Thinking (Projected TEU Traffic, Port of NY/NJ) 12 Million TEUs 10 Real (- 2006) Projected 8 6 4 2 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Monthly Traffic, Port of Los Angeles (TEUs) 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Au gu st Se pt em be r Oc to be r No ve m be r De ce m be r Ju ly Ju ne y Ma Ap ril rc h Ma Ja nu ar y Fe br ua ry 0 Insertion in the Regional Framework Distribution Clusters Regional Freight Distribution Port Regionalization “Maersk Sealand” Locomotive, Landers Yard (NS), Chicago The “Last Mile” in Freight Distribution Massification Atomization Frequency Capacity HINTERLAND GLOBAL Shipping Network Gateway Corridor REGIONALLOCAL Segment Inland Terminal Distribution Center Customer “Last Mile” Proximity and Intermediacy for Distribution Clusters DC DC Long distance transport corridor DC Metropolitan Area Main Access Corridors to the East Coast Boston – Washington Corridor: Volume to Capacity Ratio Port Inland Distribution Network and Freight Clusters Conclusion: Global Processes, Local Realities Multiscalar Freight Insertion Modal Shift (rail corridors) Freight Diversion (regionalization) Translisft crane, NS Rutherford yard, PA