3rd European Conference and Exhibition on Inland Terminals, Paris, October 22-23 2008 Transport Trends and Inland Hubs Jean-Paul Rodrigue Associate Professor Dept. of Global Studies & Geography Hofstra University New York, USA Type and Function of Inland Terminals Load center Transmodal terminal Satellite terminal Type Function Satellite terminal Close to a port facility. Accommodate additional traffic and serve functions that have become too expensive at the port. Container transloading. Freight distribution cluster / load center Access regional markets (production and consumption). Intermodal, warehousing, and logistics functions. Linked with logistics parks and free trade zones. Intermodal / Transmodal facility Link large systems of freight circulation either through the same mode (e.g. rail-to-rail) or through intermodalism (e.g. rail-to-truck). A Favorable Environment for Inland Ports Containerized Strong growth (China effect) Containerization of supply chains. Trade Long distance hinterland transportation. Trade Imbalances Imbalanced flows and shipping rates. Load centers for empties on backhauls to ports. Gateway Congestion Limitations for terminal expansion. Higher port charges and lower dwell times. Problematic local and terminal gate access. Governance Terminal operators. Value capture. Environmental constraints (Nimbyism). Political support (policy). Global Containerized Trade: Prepare to be Disappointed An Ongoing Intermodal Integration Potential Divergence: Bubbles, Trade and Containerization Container yard, Port of Yantian, China Intermodal Integration is Moving Inland Container port Containerization of Maritime Transport Systems Gateway Pendulum Services Corridor Intermodal terminal Containerization of Inland Transport Systems Inland Port Offshore hub Intermodal and Transmodal Operations World Container Traffic, 1980-2008. Reaching Peak Growth? Adoption Acceleration Peak Growth Maturity 1000 900 800 2010(?) - Million TEU 700 2002-2010(?) 600 500 Divergence 1992-2002 1966-1992 400 300 200 100 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Jan-08 Jan-06 B Jan-04 Jan-02 1 Jan-00 Jan-98 A Jan-96 100 Jan-94 40 Jan-92 Second Oil Shock Jan-90 Jan-88 Jan-86 First Oil Shock Jan-84 Jan-82 Jan-80 Jan-78 Jan-76 Jan-74 Jan-72 Jan-70 Gold Standard Jan-68 20 Jan-66 Jan-64 Jan-62 Jan-60 Jan-58 Jan-56 140 Jan-54 Jan-52 Jan-50 Jan-48 Jan-46 The Global Economy is Shocked West Texas Intermediate, Monthly Nominal Spot Oil Price (1946-2008) 120 Third Oil Shock 80 60 2 C 0 The Current Trend is Strongly Deflationary… Baltic Dry Index, Monthly Value, 2004-2008 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Complete Breakdown Coping with Imbalances Transport Flows Transport Rates Inland Ports and Repositionning NS Rutherford Inland Terminal, Pennsylvania Containerized Cargo Flows along Major Trade Routes, 1995-2006 (in millions of TEUs) 2006 13.9 4.6 2005 12.4 4.4 2004 12.4 4.2 2003 10.2 2002 8.8 2001 4.1 3.9 2000 5.6 3.3 1998 5.2 3.3 1995 4.0 0 3.5 5.5 8.9 5.2 4.9 6.1 5.9 4.5 5.8 10.8 7.3 3.9 7.2 12.5 2.3 3.9 2.1 3.8 Asia-USA USA-Asia Asia-Europe Europe-Asia USA-Europe Europe-USA 1.7 3.2 1.7 2.9 4.2 1.5 2.6 4.0 2.7 3.6 3.6 2.2 2.9 3.5 2.7 1.31.7 2.8 2.3 1.21.4 10 20 30 40 2007-2 2006-4 2006-2 2005-4 2005-2 2004-4 2004-2 2003-4 2003-2 2002-4 2002-2 2001-4 2001-2 2000-4 2000-2 1999-4 1999-2 1998-4 1998-2 1997-4 1997-2 1996-4 1996-2 1995-4 1995-2 $500 1994-4 1994-2 1993-4 Maritime Freight Rates (Nominal USD per TEU), 19932007 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 Asia - US US - Asia Asia - Europe Europe - Asia $0 Geographical Levels of Empty Container Repositioning Hinterland Regional Repositioning Inter-Regional Repositioning (coastal / fluvial) Foreland Port Depot / Inland terminal Freight Distribution Cluster Cargo Rotation May-08 Dec-07 Jul-07 Feb-07 Sep-06 Apr-06 Nov-05 Jun-05 Jan-05 Aug-04 Mar-04 Oct-03 May-03 Dec-02 Jul-02 Feb-02 Sep-01 Apr-01 Nov-00 Jun-00 Jan-00 Aug-99 Mar-99 Oct-98 May-98 Dec-97 Jul-97 Feb-97 350,000 Sep-96 400,000 Apr-96 Nov-95 Jun-95 Jan-95 Monthly Container Traffic Handled by the Port of Los Angeles, 1995-2008 (TEU) 450,000 Out Empty Out Loaded In Loaded 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Terminalization and Inland Ports Economies of Scale: A Hard Pill to Swallow Terminalization and Supply Chains Extended Distribution Centers Trimodal Container Terminal, Willebroek, Belgium The Largest Available Containership, 1970-2007 (in TEUs) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 0 Hinterland Logistics: The Realm of the “Last Mile” (or the “First Mile”) Massification Atomization Frequency Capacity GLOBAL Shipping Network Gateway HINTERLAND REGIONAL Corridor Segment Inland Terminal LOCAL Distribution Center Customer “Last Mile” Terminalization in a Supply Chain Context Suppliers Gateway Offshore Hub Gateway Inland Terminal Foreland (First Mile) Bottleneck Buffer Distribution center (outbound / inbound) Inland containerized goods flow Inland non-containerized goods flow Maritime container flow Port regionalization and the creation of a Regional Load Center Network Extended Gate Extended Distribution Center Customers Hinterland (Last Mile) Supply Chain Terminalization: Import Flows to the Hinterland Suppliers ■ Bottleneck and bufferderived terminalization • Port regionalization: Gateway • Regional load center network. • Extended gate: • Development of inland terminals. Offshore Hub • Extended distribution center: 1 Gateway 2 Inland Terminal Customers 3 • The terminal as a warehousing unit. Container Transloading: A Strong Vector of Terminalization Cause Outcome Consolidation Transferring the contents of smaller containers into larger containers (e.g. three maritime 40 foot containers into two 53 foot domestic containers). Cost savings (number of lifts). Time delays. Weight compliance Transferring the contents of heavy containers into loads meeting national or regional road weight limits. Palletizing Placing loose (floor loaded) containerized cargo unto pallets. Adapting to local load units (e.g. europallet). Demurrage Handing back containers to owner (maritime shipping or leasing company) by transferring its contents into another load unit (e.g. domestic container). Equipment availability Making maritime containers available for exports and domestic containers available for imports. Trade facilitation. Supply chain management Terminal and transloading facility as a buffer. Delay decision to route freight to better fulfill regional demands. Perform some added value activities (packaging, labeling, final assembly, etc.) Automated Transfer Management System for TruckRail Transfers Supply Chains and Inland Terminals ■ JVC Belgium (EDC) + TCT Belgium (EG) • • • • Four day rule. Free time Rotterdam (5 days). Free time TCT Belgium (21 days). Full containers at TCT; part of stock to JVC Belgium. Governance and Inland Terminals Terminal Operators and Value Capture Operations and Life Cycle Containerization of Commodities Uiwang Inland Container Depot, South Korea The Value Capture Process along Commodity Chains Port Authority Horizontal Integration Maritime Services Port Services Inland Services Vertical Integration Maritime Shipping Offshore hub Port Inland Port Port Holding Port Terminal Operations Inland Modes and Terminals Commodity Chain Distribution Centers Inland Terminals: Operations and Added Value Infrastructure Equipment Core (Operations) Storage Ancillary (Added Value) Modal access (dock, siding, road), unloading areas Intermodal lifting equipment, storing equipment Yard for empty and loaded containers Management Administration, maintenance, access (gates), information systems Trade facilitation Free trade zone, logistical services Distribution centers Transloading, cross-docking, warehousing, light manufacturing, temperature controlled facilities (cold chain) Storage depot Container depot, bulk storage Container services Washing, preparation, repair, worthiness certification Inland Terminal Life Cycle Traffic Subsidies / Investments Planning Setting Growth Maturity Decline Profit Concept Stage 1 Operations begin Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Bulk and Containerized Commodity Chains Bulk Commodity Chain Supplier Port Point-to-Point Customer Consolidation center Complementarity Container port Pendulum Services Inland Terminal Containerized Commodity Chain 26 Inland Terminals: Is the Trend our Friend? Intermodal Integration (Positive) Energy Prices (Somewhat Positive) Collapse of Asset Inflation Bubbles (Very Negative) Containerization of Commodities (Positive) Container waiting to be loaded, Shenzhen, China