2015 Iowa Land Value Survey Dr. Wendong Zhang

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2015
Iowa Land Value Survey
Dr. Wendong Zhang
Assistant Professor of Economics and Extension Economist
ISU Alumni Center
December 14, 2015
Outline
• Survey Changes
– Personnel, Mode, Questions
• 2015 Land Value Survey Results
– State, District, County
• Analysis and Observations
– Sales Activity, Buyers, Factors to Watch and Price Outlook
• Iowa Farmland Value Portal
Who is the New Duffy?
• Well, No one could replace Mike Duffy
• Something about me
–
–
–
–
–
Grown up in a rural county in NE China
Attended college in Shanghai and Hong Kong
Ph.D. in Ag Econ in 2015 from Ohio State
2012 summer intern at USDA-ERS on farm economy and farmland values
Research and extension interests: land value, land ownership, agriculture
and the environment, China Ag
The Survey is also Online!
514 respondents
708 land value estimates
55% of the respondents
participated online
http://bit.ly/landvalue15
Questions - Modifications
Questions - Additions
Outline
• Survey Changes
– Personnel, Mode, Questions
• 2015 Land Value Survey Results
– State, District, County
• Analysis and Observations
– Sales Activity, Buyers, Factors to Watch and Price Outlook
• Iowa Farmland Value Portal
STATEWIDE AVERAGE
$7,633
down
down
-3.9%
-$310
HIGH QUALITY LAND
$9,364
down
down
-5.0%
-$490
MEDIUM QUALITY LAND
$7,127
down
down
-3.2%
-$232
LOW QUALITY LAND
$4,834
down
down
-0.9%
-$44
NORTHWEST
$9,685
up
up
0.7%
$70
High
up 2.8% $11,229
Medium
up $83 $8,834
Low
$6,252
NORTH CENTRAL
$7,962
down -6.7%
down -$574
High
$8,976
Medium $7,352
Low
$5,372
NORTHEAST
$7,861
down -3.6%
down -$290
High
$9,575
Medium $7,460
Low
$5,242
WEST CENTRAL
$8,061
down -4.3%
down -$364
High
$9,684
Medium $7,581
Low
$5,082
CENTRAL
$8,505
down -6.4%
down -$582
High
$10,087
Medium $7,758
Low
$5,292
EAST CENTRAL
$8,515
down -5.5%
down -$493
High
$10,303
Medium $7,938
Low
$5,373
SOUTHWEST
$6,372
down -2.2%
down -$141
High
$8,031
Medium $6,038
Low
$4,070
SOUTH CENTRAL
$4,397
down -1.7%
down -$77
High
$6,445
Medium $4,282
Low
$2,750
SOUTHEAST
$6,892
down -4.5%
down -$322
High
$9,536
Medium $6,525
Low
$3,797
Land Values by District and Land Quality, 2015
District
Average
Value
%
Change
High
Quality
%
Change
Medium
Quality
%
Change
Low
% Change
Quality
Northwest
North Central
Northeast
West Central
Central
East Central
Southwest
South Central
Southeast
$9,685
$7,962
$7,861
$8,061
$8,505
$8,506
$6,372
$4,397
$6,892
0.7%
-6.7%
-3.6%
-4.3%
-6.4%
-5.6%
-2.2%
-1.7%
-4.5%
$11,229
$8,976
$9,575
$9,684
$10,087
$10,289
$8,031
$6,445
$9,536
0.3%
-6.8%
-5.0%
-5.8%
-6.4%
-6.8%
-5.3%
-3.3%
-6.0%
$8,834
$7,352
$7,460
$7,581
$7,758
$7,934
$6,038
$4,282
$6,525
1.6%
-6.6%
-1.7%
-3.2%
-6.8%
-5.4%
-1.2%
-0.8%
-2.8%
$6,252
$5,372
$5,242
$5,082
$5,292
$5,366
$4,070
$2,750
$3,797
2.6%
-1.0%
-0.3%
-1.8%
-5.2%
-2.1%
5.4%
-2.1%
-2.4%
State Avg.
$7,633
-3.9%
$9,364
-5.0%
$7,127
-3.2%
$4,834
-0.9%
US Farm
Income
19902025
Net Cash Farm Income vs. Nominal Farmland Values
Source: USDA-ERS,
Ag DM C2-70
% Change in Land Values by District
2014 and 2015
District
Average
Value 2015
% Change
2014-2015
% Change
2013-2014
Northwest
North Central
Northeast
West Central
Central
East Central
Southwest
South Central
Southeast
$9,685
$7,962
$7,861
$8,061
$8,505
$8,506
$6,372
$4,397
$6,892
0.7%
-6.7%
-3.6%
-4.3%
-6.4%
-5.6%
-2.2%
-1.7%
-4.5%
-12.3%
-13.1%
-11.0%
-10.8%
-8.0%
-3.4%
-13.5%
-6.6%
3.2%
State Avg.
$7,633
-3.9%
-8.9%
Livestock and Crop Inventory by District
Inventory 2012
Harvested Acres 2015
Chickens, Layers
Hogs
Milk Cows
Cattle
Corn
Soybean
Northwest
30%
26%
29%
22%
15%
16%
North Central
64%
16%
4%
6%
14%
13%
Northeast
1%
12%
51%
16%
12%
8%
West Central
0%
13%
1%
13%
15%
16%
Central
3%
13%
1%
7%
15%
14%
East Central
1%
5%
10%
11%
10%
10%
Southwest
0%
2%
0%
9%
7%
9%
South Central
0%
2%
1%
9%
4%
5%
Southeast
1%
11%
3%
6%
7%
8%
State Inventory
20.4 million
20.4 million
0.17 million
2.34 million
13.2 million
9.8 million
Iowa Land
Values by
County 2015
Iowa Land
Value %
Change by
County
2014 -2015
Outline
• Survey Changes
– Personnel, Mode, Questions
• 2015 Land Value Survey Results
– State, District, County
• Analysis and Observations
– Sales Activity, Buyers, Factors to Watch and Price Outlook
• Iowa Farmland Value Portal
AVERAGE
VALUES
all farmland 1950−2015
Nominal vs. Inflation Adjusted Iowa Farmland Values
10000
9000
Nominal
7000
Real
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Year
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
0
1950
Land values ($/acre)
8000
% Change in Iowa Farmland Values 1951-2015
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
Iowa
Farmland
Sale
Activity
since
November
2014
More
Less
Same
Percent
Northwest
North Central
Northeast
West Central
Central
East Central
Southwest
South Central
Southeast
STATE
13
9
11
4
12
5
11
6
18
44
64
57
71
70
60
62
76
47
43
27
33
25
18
35
27
18
35
10
60
30
Iowa Farmland Sale Activity
Relative to Last Year 1986-2015
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
More
Less
Same
Iowa Farmland Sale Index 1986-2015
Above 100, Greater than Last Year
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Iowa Farmland Purchases by Buyer
Types, 2015
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Northwest
North Central
Northeast
Investors-Individuals
West Central
Central
Investors-Entities
East Central
Existing Farmers
Southwest
South Central
New Farmers
Others
Southeast
State Avg.
Iowa Farmland Purchases
by Buyer Types 1986-2015
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Existing Farmers
Investors
New Farmers
Other
Major Positive Factors Affecting
Iowa Farmland Market, 2015
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Investor demand
Favorable interest rates
Strong yields
Land availability (limited supply)
Cash/credit availability
Major Negative Factors Affecting
Iowa Farmland Market
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
higher input costs
lower commodity prices
cash/credit availability
uncertain ag future
Farmland Values Predictions
in the Next Year
District
Increase 5% Increase 0or more
5%
Stay the
same
Decrease 05%
Decrease 510%
Decrease
10% or more
PERCENT
Northwest
North Central
Northeast
West Central
Central
East Central
Southwest
South Central
Southeast
3
0
0
2
0
2
2
0
0
9
2
2
2
0
2
2
3
0
28
16
20
22
13
18
21
10
17
36
38
38
44
48
30
40
33
47
19
44
36
26
33
40
24
41
33
6
2
5
4
6
9
10
13
3
STATE
1
3
19
39
32
6
2016/17 Crop Margins
Source: Chad Hart
Farmland Values Predictions
in Five Years
District
Increase 5%
or more
Increase 0-5%
Stay the
same
Decrease 0-5%
Decrease
5-10%
Decrease 10%
or more
PERCENT
Northwest
North Central
Northeast
West Central
Central
East Central
Southwest
South Central
Southeast
16
16
7
20
22
9
18
12
6
18
12
22
20
21
19
15
12
14
20
10
15
16
19
17
21
15
26
16
17
10
14
8
19
10
12
14
16
22
22
16
19
19
13
32
17
14
22
24
12
11
19
23
18
23
STATE
14
17
17
14
19
18
Crop Prices for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-OCE
Survey Respondents by Occupation
District
Appraiser
Ag
Lender
Farm
Manager
Sales
Other
# Respondents
Percent
16%
12%
13%
10%
14%
12%
9%
8%
7%
PERCENT
Northwest
North Central
Northeast
West Central
Central
East Central
Southwest
South Central
Southeast
9%
14%
9%
15%
16%
16%
14%
22%
14%
41%
38%
48%
48%
33%
38%
39%
22%
31%
19%
14%
9%
13%
23%
15%
23%
17%
8%
19%
13%
9%
10%
17%
13%
11%
20%
14%
14%
22%
25%
13%
11%
18%
14%
20%
33%
81
64
65
52
70
61
44
41
36
STATE
Percentage
71
14%
196
38%
82
16%
72
14%
93
18%
514
Survey Respondents by Mode of
Survey 2015
District
Northwest
North Central
Northeast
West Central
Central
East Central
Southwest
South Central
Southeast
Email
52%
52%
57%
48%
63%
62%
55%
51%
42%
Paper
48%
48%
43%
52%
37%
38%
45%
49%
58%
# Respondents
84
16%
66
13%
65
13%
52
10%
70
14%
63
12%
44
9%
41
8%
38
7%
# Respondents by State
287
56%
227
44%
514
Distribution of Land Quality
by Buyer Types
District
High Quality
FARMERS
Medium
Quality
Low Quality
High Quality
INVESTORS
Medium
Quality
Low Quality
PERCENT
Northwest
North
Central
Northeast
West Central
Central
East Central
Southwest
South
Central
Southeast
55
36
19
51
32
14
49
40
16
51
34
18
47
54
54
50
45
38
40
35
33
46
16
16
16
16
25
48
48
56
50
41
30
32
37
29
35
20
18
13
20
19
45
45
28
34
39
28
56
34
14
56
22
13
STATE
51
38
18
49
33
18
Estimated
Average
CSR and
CSR2 by
District:
Northwest
vs.
South
Central
Northwest
South Central
Estimated Average CSR and CSR2
by District
Estimated Average CSR
Estimated Average CSR2
District
High Quality
Medium Quality
Low Quality
High Quality
Medium Quality
Low Quality
Northwest
North Central
Northeast
West Central
Central
East Central
Southwest
South Central
Southeast
76
81
80
75
84
84
73
68
80
69
72
68
64
74
71
61
53
67
59
62
55
55
60
55
49
38
49
89
85
83
81
87
87
79
71
80
80
75
70
68
74
74
65
55
67
67
66
57
59
63
60
52
43
53
STATE
79
67
55
83
71
59
Outline
• Survey Changes
– Personnel, Mode, Questions
• 2015 Land Value Survey Results
– State, District, County
• Analysis and Observations
– Sales Activity, Buyers, Factors to Watch and Price Outlook
• Iowa Farmland Value Portal
Iowa Farmland Value Portal
http://card.iastate.edu/farmland
Iowa
Farmland
Value
Portal
http://card.iastate.edu/
farmland
Iowa Farmland
Value Portal
ww.card.iastate.edu/
farmland
Thank You!
Wendong Zhang
Assistant Professor and Extension Economist
Iowa State University
515-294-2536
[email protected]
http://www.econ.iastate.edu/people/faculty/zhang-wendong
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