Creating Capabilities James Heckman University of Chicago and Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group, Institute For New Economic Thinking RIETI October 8th, 2014 This draft, September 23, 2014 5:11pm Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 2 / 122 .45 .5 Figure 1: Trends in Family Income Inequality in Japan nsfers d Tra an Taxes .35 .4 Before sfers .25 .3 After Taxes and Tran 1985 1990 1995 Before Taxes and Transfers After Taxes and Transfers Year 2000 2005 2010 OLS Slope=0.005, p-value=0.000 OLS Slope=0.001, p-value=0.043 Source: Bradley J. Setzler (2014) Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 3 / 122 Measures of Wealth Inequality (NSFIE) 0.66 Equalized Net Financial Wealth (GINI) 0.64 0.62 0.6 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.52 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 Source: Lise etal., 2014 Data: National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure (NSFIE) Source: Lise et al., 2010 Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 4 / 122 Poverty Rates in Japan 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1985 1988 Poverty rate (%) 1991 1994 Child poverty rate (%) 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Poverty Rate Single Parent (18-65) with Children Under 17 Source: Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions Note: Poverty rate is calculated according to OECD guideline ( The poverty rate is the ratio of the number of people who fall below the poverty line and the total population; the poverty line is here taken as half the median household income) Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 5 / 122 Figure 2: Percentage distribution of the number of Japanese households by self-assessed living-conditions, for all the households and specific households; Figure 2010 19: Percentage distribution of the number of households by self-assessed living-conditions, for all the households and specific households 2010 Very comfortable Very difficult All households Difficult (59.4%) Somewhat difficult 27.1 Somewhat comfortable Normal 32.3 4.1 35.8 0.7 (51.5%) Aged households 21.3 4.0 30.2 44.0 0.5 (65.7%) Households with children 3.8 31.0 34.7 0.3 30.1 (85.6%) Mother-child households 0.5 50.5 0% 10% 20% 35.1 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 13.9 80% 90% 100% Source: FromFrom Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare Source Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 6 / 122 A Basic Fact on Gender Inequality in Hourly Wage in Japan Table 1: Gender Inequality in Employment Status and Hourly Wage (2006 Wage Census in Japan) Source Yamaguchi (2014). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 7 / 122 Intergenerational Mobility and Inequality: The “Gatsby Curve” IGE: ln Y1 = α + βln Y0 + ε |{z} |{z} Income of parents Italy UK USA France Japan Germany NZ Sweden Canada Australia Norway Finland Denmark 0 Intergen. Elasticity of Earnings (IGE) .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Income in current generation .2 .25 .3 Gini Coefficient, After Taxes and Transfers Corak's Chosen IGE .35 OLS Slope=2.05, p-value=.001 Source: Bradley J. Setzler (2014) Note: Inequality is measured after taxes and transfers. Gini index defined on household income. IGE measured by pre-tax and transfer income of individual fathers and sons. • • • Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 8 / 122 .5 Figure 3: Changing to Pretax Family Income USA Intergen. Elasticity of Earnings (IGE) .1 .2 .3 .4 Italy UK France Japan NZ Canada Norway Germany Australia Sweden Finland 0 Denmark .34 .38 .42 Gini Coefficient, Before Taxes and Transfers Corak's Chosen IGE .46 OLS Slope=1.36, p-value=.093 Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 9 / 122 The traditional approach to inequality is “alms to the poor” or “redistribution.” Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 10 / 122 Skills are Major Determinants of Inequality Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 11 / 122 • A Strategy Based on Creating Capabilities: Capabilities are “Capacities” or “Skills” • Capabilities: The Capacities to Act and to Create Future Capacities Capabilities are defined as the real f reedoms people have to achieve and the beings and doings that they value and have reason to value Sen, 1979, 1985, 1992; Nussbaum and Sen, 1993. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 13 / 122 Eight Broad Lessons from the Recent Research Literature on Creating Capabilities Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 14 / 122 1. Multiple Skills Multiple skills vitally affect performance in life across a variety of dimensions. A large body of evidence shows that cognitive and noncognitive skills affect labor market outcomes, the likelihood of marrying and divorcing, the likelihood of receiving welfare, voting, and health. 2. Gaps in Skills Gaps in skills between individuals and across socioeconomic groups open up at early ages for both cognitive and noncognitive skills. Many measures show near-parallelism during the school years across children of parents from different socioeconomic backgrounds, even though schooling quality is very unequal. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 16 / 122 3. Capabilities Can Be Created by Investment The early emergence of skill gaps might be interpreted as the manifestation of genetics: Smart parents earn more, achieve more, and have smarter children. A body of strong experimental evidence shows the powerful role of parenting and environments, including mentors and teachers in shaping skills. Genes are important, but skills are not solely genetically determined. The role of heritability is exaggerated in many studies and in popular discussions. Genes need sufficiently rich environments to fully express themselves. There is mounting evidence that gene expression is itself mediated by environments. Epigenetics informs us that environmental influences are partly heritable. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 17 / 122 4. Critical and Sensitive Periods in the Technology of Skill Formation There is compelling evidence for critical and sensitive periods in the development of a child. Different capacities are malleable at different stages of the life cycle. For example, IQ is rank stable after age 10, whereas personality skills are malleable through adolescence and into early adulthood. A substantial body of evidence from numerous disciplines shows the persistence of early life disadvantage in shaping later life outcomes. Early life environments are important for explaining a variety of diverse outcomes, such as crime, health, education, occupation, social engagement, trust, and voting. 5. Family Investments Gaps in skills by age across different socioeconomic groups have counterparts in gaps in family investments and environments. Children from disadvantaged environments are exposed to a substantially less rich vocabulary than children from more advantaged families. At age three, children from professional families speak 50% more words than children from working-class families and more than twice as many compared to children from welfare families. There is a substantial literature showing that disadvantaged children have compromised early environments as measured on a variety of dimensions. Recent evidence documents the lack of parenting knowledge among disadvantaged parents. Parenting styles in disadvantaged families are much less supportive of learning and encouraging child exploration. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 19 / 122 6. Resilience and Targeted Investment Although early life conditions are important, there is considerable evidence of resilience and subsequent partial recovery. To our knowledge, there is no evidence of full recovery from initial disadvantage. The most effective adolescent interventions target the formation of personality, socioemotional, and character skills through mentoring and guidance, including providing information. This evidence is consistent with the greater malleability of personality and character skills into adolescence and young adulthood. The body of evidence to date shows that, as currently implemented, many later life remediation efforts are not effective in improving capacities and life outcomes of children from disadvantaged environments. As a general rule, the economic returns to these programs are smaller compared to those policies aimed at closing gaps earlier. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 20 / 122 However, workplace-based adolescent intervention programs and apprenticeship programs with mentoring, surrogate parenting, and guidance show promising results. They appear to foster character skills, such as increasing self-confidence, teamwork ability, autonomy, and discipline, which are often lacking in disadvantaged youth. In recent programs with only short-term follow-ups, mentoring programs in schools that provide students with information that improves their use of capacities have also been shown to be effective. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 21 / 122 7. Parent-child/Mentor-child Interactions Play Key Roles in Promoting Child Learning A recurrent finding from the family influence and intervention literatures is the crucial role of child-parent/child-mentor relationships that “scaffold” the child (i.e., track the child closely, encourage the child to take feasible next steps forward in his or her “proximal zone of development,” and do not bore or discourage the child). Successful interventions across the life cycle share this feature. The child as an “emergent” system. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 22 / 122 8. High Returns to Early Investment Despite the generally low returns to interventions targeted toward the cognitive skills of disadvantaged adolescents, the empirical literature shows high economic returns for investments in young disadvantaged children. There is compelling evidence that high-quality interventions targeted to the early years are effective in promoting skills. This is a manifestation of “dynamic complementarity”. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 23 / 122 Predistribution, Not Just Redistribution A Comprehensive Understanding of Capability Formation Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 25 / 122 • To effectively produce capabilities, we should take a more comprehensive approach to understanding the economics of skill development. • Need to formulate policies that clearly recognize what skills matter, how they are produced and at what stage of the life cycle it is most productive to invest, and how we should prioritize public policy toward producing skills. • Doing so avoids fragmented and often ineffective approaches to public policy that miss the pervasive importance of skills. • The skills problem is at the core of many social and economic problems that plague societies around the world. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 26 / 122 Fragmented solutions are often not effective. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 27 / 122 Fragmented Solutions Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 28 / 122 Prevention, not just remediation. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 29 / 122 The Ingredients of Effective Capability Formation Strategies Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 30 / 122 Modern Understanding of Human Development Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 31 / 122 • The family lives of children are the major producers of cognitive and socio-emotional skills. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 32 / 122 • Supplementing the family and its resources, engaging it in enriching the life of the child, in supporting the child in school, and in giving sound advice to children, are effective policies. So are policies that enhance the skills of parents to be parents. (i) If society intervenes early enough and in a consistent fashion over the life cycle of a child, it can promote cognitive and socioemotional capabilities, as well as the health and wellbeing of children born into disadvantage. (ii) Through multiple channels, these effects percolate across the life cycle and across generations. (iii) For example, high-quality early interventions reduce inequality by promoting schooling, reducing crime, and reducing teenage pregnancy. (iv) They promote health and healthy behaviors. (v) They also foster workforce productivity. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 33 / 122 (vi) These interventions have high benefit-cost ratios and rates of return. They pass efficiency criteria that any social program should be asked to pass. (vii) Quality early childhood policies are among the rare social policies that face no equality-efficiency tradeoff. (viii) What is fair is also economically efficient. (ix) Early interventions that build the capability base of children have much higher economic returns than later remediation and prevention programs, such as public job training, convict rehabilitation programs, adult literacy programs, tuition subsidies, or expenditure on police to reduce crime. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 34 / 122 • Universal ingredient of all successful interventions–by families, schools, and mentors in the work place • “Scaffolding” • Monitoring and mentoring the child, taking stock of where they are and taking them to the next step. Interactions and interplay are at the heart of all successful skill development approaches. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 35 / 122 The Importance of Cognitive and Character Skills Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 36 / 122 Table 2: The Big Five Domains and Their Facets: OCEAN Big Five Personality Factor Facets (and correlated trait adjective) Openness to experience Fantasy (imaginative) Aesthetic (artistic) Feelings (excitable) Actions (wide interests) Ideas (curious) Values (unconventional) Competence (efficient) Order (organized) Dutifulness (not careless) Achievement striving (ambitious) Self-discipline (not lazy) Deliberation (not impulsive) Warmth (friendly) Gregariousness (sociable) Assertiveness (self-confident) Activity (energetic) Excitement seeking (adventurous) Positive emotions (enthusiastic) Trust (forgiving) Straight-forwardness (not demanding) Altruism (warm) Compliance (not stubborn) Modesty (not show-off) Tender-mindedness (sympathetic) Anxiety (worrying) Hostility (irritable) Depression (not contented) Self-consciousness (shy) Impulsiveness (moody) Vulnerability to stress (not self-confident) Conscientiousness Extraversion Agreeableness Neuroticism/Emotional Stability Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 37 / 122 Ever Been in Jail by Age 30, by Ability (Males) Ever been in jail by age 30, by ability (males) olarization .15 rgument kills .10 ritical and ensitive eriods Probability vidence .05 nvironment ntuitive stimates lustration .00 0 – 20 21 – 40 41 – 60 61 – 80 81 – 100 Percentile ummary Cognitive Noncognitive Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability. Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers the Stixrud, effect and of increasing Source:show Heckman, Urzua (2006).noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability. Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 38 / 122 Probability of Being Single With Children (Females) Probability of being single with children olarization .10 gument kills .08 itical and ensitive eriods nvironment Probability vidence .06 .04 tuitive stimates ustration .02 0 – 20 21 – 40 41 – 60 61 – 80 81 – 100 Percentile ummary Cognitive Noncognitive Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability. Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers theStixrud, effectand of Urzua increasing Source:show Heckman, (2006).noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability. Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 39 / 122 Probability of being a 4-year college graduate by age 30 Probability and Confidence Interval (2.5-97.5%) ii. By Decile of Cognitive Factor iii. By Decile of Personality 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Decile 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Decile Notes: The data are simulated from the estimates of the model and our NLSY79 sample. We use the standard convention that higher deciles are associated with higher values of the variable. The confidence intervals are computed using bootstrapping (200 draws). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 40 / 122 The GED illustrates the power of non-cognitive skills Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 41 / 122 Figure 4: Distribution of Cognitive Ability by Educational Status (No College Sample, All Ethnic Groups) Dropout GED Secondary Graduate Source: Reproduced from Heckman et al. (2011), based on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 (NLSY79). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 42 / 122 Figure 5: Hourly Wage Differences of GED Recipients and Traditional Graduates Compared to Uncertified Dropouts—Ages 20–39 (b) Hourly Wage 0 2 4 6 8 10 Annual Earnings Abil 5−29 Raw Abil Raw Abil Raw Abil Raw Abil Raw Abil Raw Abil 30−34 35−39 20−24 25−29 30−34 35−39 .15 ) Hours Worked GED (d) Employment H.S. +/− S.E. 0 .05 .1 Source: Reproduced from Heckman et al. (2014), which uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 (NLSY79). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 43 / 122 Figure 6: Distribution of Non-Cognitive Skills by Education Group Non-Cognitive Skill Dropout GED Secondary Graduate Source: Reproduced from Heckman et al. (2011), which uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 (NLSY79). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 44 / 122 Evidence on Noncognitive Skills for Japan Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 45 / 122 Figure 7: Standardized Regression Coefficient associated with Years of Schooling in Japan Source: LEE SunYoun and OHTAKE Fumio, RIETI Discussion Paper Series 14-E-023, May 2014 Note: The figure displays standardized regression coefficient from multivariate of years of schooling completed on the personality trait and parental education, controlling for age and age-squared and gender. The darker rectangular bars are the estimates with the control of parental educational background and the line bars represent robust standard errors. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 46 / 122 Figure 8: Standardized Regression Coefficient associated with Earnings in Japan Source: LEE SunYoun and OHTAKE Fumio, RIETI Discussion Paper Series 14-E-023, May 2014 Note: The figure displays standardized regression coefficient from multivariate of annual income on the personality trait and ones own educational attainment, controlling for potential experience and its squared, gender, occupation, type of employment, industry, company size, and years of work experience at the current work place. The darker rectangular bars are the estimates with the control of parental educational background and the line bars represent robust standard errors. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 47 / 122 Figure 9: Adjusted R-2 associated with Earnings in Japan and the US Source: LEE SunYoun and OHTAKE Fumio, RIETI Discussion Paper Series 14-E-023, May 2014 Note: Adjusted R 2 s for linear regressions for annual income (log). Total indicates the Adjusted R 2 when Big 5, total years of schooling, and behavioral characteristics are all included into the wage equation. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 48 / 122 • Can these traits be reliably measured? Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 49 / 122 Developing a More Comprehensive Measurement Systems: A Task-Based Framework for Identifying and Measuring Skills Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 50 / 122 Personality traits are the relatively enduring patterns of thoughts, feelings, and behaviors that reflect the tendency to respond in certain ways under certain circumstances. (Roberts, 2009, 140) • All psychological measures are performance on tasks Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 52 / 122 Figure 10: Determinants of Task Performance Incentives Effort Character Skills Task Performance Cognitive Skills Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 53 / 122 Figure 11: Decomposing Variance Explained for Achievement Tests and Grades into IQ and Non-Cognitive Skills: Stella Maris Secondary School, Maastricht, Holland Source: Borghans et al. (2011). Note: Grit is a measure of persistence on tasks (Duckworth et al., 2007). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 54 / 122 Gaps Open Up Early Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 55 / 122 0 .5 Mean cognitive score 1 Trend in mean by age for cognitive score by maternal education 3 5 College grad 8 18 Age (years) Some college HS Grad Less than HS Each score standardized within observed sample. Using all observations and assuming data missing at random. Source: Brooks-Gunn et al. (2006). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 56 / 122 Rank onbehavior Anti-Social AverageAverage percentilePercentile rank on anti-social score, by income Behavior Score, by Income Quartile quartile ation 55 ent and ve nment Score Percentile ce 50 45 40 35 30 e 25 tes 20 tion 4 Yrs 6 Yrs 8 Yrs Age ary Lowest Income Quartile Second Income Quartile Third Income Quartile Highest Income Quartile 10 Yrs 12 Yrs Lexical Ability of Children by Annual Household Income 35 30 Vocabulary Scores 25 20 15 10 5 3 year olds 4 year olds < 5million yen 5 to 9 million yen 5 year olds >9 million yen Source: recreated from Hamano 2010 Note: Lexical Ability is measured by Picture Vocabulary Test (PVT). PVT measure the degree of development of language comprehension, in particular, basic “vocabulary comprehension.” The test is used internationally and asks children to perform such tasks as choosing the most appropriate picture from a set of four for a word given by the examiner. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 58 / 122 Figure 12: Mother’s educational attainment and level of academic ability, Mathematics Source: Akabayashi et al. (2013). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 59 / 122 Figure 13: Family income and academic ability, Mathematics Source: Akabayashi et al. (2013). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 60 / 122 How to Interpret This Evidence Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 61 / 122 • Evidence on the early emergence of gaps leaves open the question of which aspects of families are responsible for producing these gaps. • Is it due to genes? • Family environments? Neighborhood and community effects? • Parenting and family investment decisions? • The evidence from a large body of research demonstrates an important role for investments and family and community environments in determining adult capacities above and beyond the role of the family in transmitting genes. • The quality of home environments by family type is highly predictive of child success. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 62 / 122 “It is said that heaven does not create one man above or below another man. Any existing distinction between the wise and the stupid, between the rich and the poor, comes down to a matter of education.” – Fukuzawa Yukichi Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 63 / 122 Variation in Family Environments Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 64 / 122 Mothers’ Speech and Child Vocabulary: Hart & Risley, 1995 Children enter school with “meaningful differences” in vocabulary knowledge. 1. Emergence of the Problem In a typical hour, the average child hears: Family Status Welfare Working Class Professional Actual Differences in Quantity of Words Heard 616 words 1,251 words 2,153 words Actual Differences in Quality of Words Heard 5 affirmatives, 11 prohibitions 12 affirmatives, 7 prohibitions 32 affirmatives, 5 prohibitions 2. Cumulative Vocabulary at Age 3 Cumulative Vocabulary at Age 3 Children from welfare families: Children from working class families: Children from professional families: 500 words 700 words 1,100 words Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 65 / 122 Relation between the Mother's Education Beckground and her Educational Awareness and Behavior (%) Junior or Senior High School Graduate Vocational College or Junior College University or Graduate School 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Reads picture Takes the child Provides Talks to the Many books at Mother reads story books to to visit breakfast for child about the home books child museums the child every news day Mother visits museums Parents are aware that children should be exposed to foreign cultures Source: Hamano 2010 Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 66 / 122 0.05 Proportion of Children in Family Type 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 Children Under 18 Living in Single Parent Households by Marital Status of Parent 1976 1980 1984 1988 Divorced Widowed 1992 1996 Year 2000 2004 2008 2012 Married, Spouse Absent/Separated Never Married/Single Source: IPUMS March CPS 1976‐2012 Note: Parents are defined as the head of the household. Children are defined as individuals under 18, living in the household, and the child of the head of household. Children who have been married or are not living with their parents are excluded from the calculation. Separated parents are included in “Married, Spouse Absent” Category Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 67 / 122 Children Under 20 Living in Single Parent Households by Marital Status of Single Mother (Japan) 8 7 6 Perventage 5 4 3 2 1 0 1998 2001 2004 Divorced 2007 Widowed 2010 2013 Unmarried Source: Comprehensive Survey of Living Condition Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 68 / 122 Single Parent Households Among Households with Children under 20 in Japan 8 7 6 Percentage 5 4 3 2 1 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 single mother single father Source: Comprehensive Survey of Living Condition Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 69 / 122 • Interpreting effects of family income: U.S. / Japan / Denmark Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 70 / 122 College attendance by AFQT and Family Income Quartiles (1997) Source: Belley and Lochner (2007). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 71 / 122 Figure 14: In Japan: Family income plays a key role in determining students’ path following high school graduation Percent of High School Graduates Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 72 / 122 An Informative Comparison: US vs. Denmark Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 73 / 122 High School Completion and College Attendance by Mother's Education Denmark and US High School Completion College Attendance 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 No High School High School Denmark College No High School US High School Denmark College US Source: Rasmus Landers Note: Observation Denmark 33,954; CNLSY 3,268 Source: James Heckman and Rasmus Landersø (2014). Note: Observation Landersø Denmark 33,954; CNLSY 3,268. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 74 / 122 Figure 15: High school completion by mother’s education Source: Rasmus Landersø (2014). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 75 / 122 Figure 16: College attendance by mother’s education Source: Rasmus Landersø (2014). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 76 / 122 • What is the role for capabilities in explaining gaps? Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 77 / 122 Figure 17: Cognitive skills at age 15-16 and parental income / wealth (a) CNLSY (b) Denmark Source: James Heckman and Rasmus Landersø (2014). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 78 / 122 Figure 18: College attendance and parental income / wealth (a) CNLSY (b) Denmark Source: James Heckman and Rasmus Landersø (2014). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 79 / 122 Figure 19: High school completion by parental income and wealth — θC , θN,C (a) CNLSY (b) Denmark Source: James Heckman and Rasmus Landersø (2014). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 80 / 122 Figure 20: College attendance by parental income and wealth — θC , θN,C (a) CNLSY (b) Denmark Source: James Heckman and Rasmus Landersø (2014). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 81 / 122 Genes, Biological Embedding of Experience, and Gene-Environment Interactions Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 82 / 122 DNA methylation and histone acetylation patterns in young and old twins Methylation patterns in young and old twins Manel Esteller Source: Fraga, Ballestar et al. (2005). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 83 / 122 Interventions Early childhood interventions targeted to disadvantaged children are effective in overcoming these gaps. • They provide evidence against a purely genetic argument. • These provide supplementary parenting for disadvantaged children. • A primary avenue through which they operate is personality and noncognitive skills. • Did not boost IQ. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 84 / 122 Cognitive Evolution through Time, Perry Males Male Cognitive Dynamics 105 Treatment 100 95 IQ 90 85 Control 80 75 Treatment 79.2 94.9 95.4 91.5 91.1 88.3 88.4 83.7 Control 77.8 83.1 84.8 85.8 87.7 89.1 89.0 86.0 Entry 4 5 6 7 8 9 Age Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 10 85 / 122 Yet the Perry Program has a statistically significant annual rate of return of around 6%–10% per annum—for both boys and girls—in the range of the post–World War II stock market returns to equity in the U.S. labor market, estimated to be 6.9%. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 86 / 122 • It worked primarily through noncognitive and character channels. Early interventions reducing problem behavior lower the probability of engaging in unhealthy behaviors in adulthood. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 87 / 122 .8 .4 .6 density .6 .4 .2 .2 0 0 density .8 1 1 Figure 21: Mechanisms: Externalizing Behavior, Males 2 2.5 3 3.5 (a) Control 4 4.5 5 2 ® 2.5 3 3.5 4 (b) Treatment 4.5 5 ® Data: Perry Preschool Program. Source: Heckman, Pinto, Savelyev (2013). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 88 / 122 Figure 1: Decompositions of Treatment Effects, Males of Treatment Effects, Males Decomposition zation ment CAT total*, age 14(+) Employed, age 19 (+) Monthly Income, age 27 (+) nce No tobacco use, age 27 (+) al and tive ds # of adult arrests, age 27 (-) onment ve ates ation mary Jobless for more than 2 years, age 40 (-) Ever on welfare (-) Total charges of viol.crimes with victim costs, age 40, (-) Total charges of all crimes, age 40 (-) Total # of lifetime arrests, age 40 (-) Total # of adult arrests, age 40 (-) Total # of misdemeanor arrests, age 40 (-) Total charges of all crimes with victim costs, age 40 (-) Any charges of a crime with victim cost, age 40 (-) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Cognitive Factors Socio-Emotional State Personal Behavior Other Factors 70 80 Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 90 100% 89 / 122 Long-Term Health Effects of Perry: Males The Abecedarian Intervention Source: Campbell, Conti, Heckman, Moon, Pinto, and Pungello (2014) Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 91 / 122 ABC Health Effects Mid 30s: Males Data: Abecedarian Program. Source: Campbell et al. (2014) Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 92 / 122 ABC Mechanisms: IQ Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 93 / 122 Attachment, Engagement Toward a Deeper Understanding of Parenting and Learning • In both Perry and ABC (and many other interventions) a main channel of influence is on parent-child interactions. • Enhanced attachment and engagement of parents. • This has important implications for how we model family influence. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 94 / 122 Dewey: “Successful schools do what successful parents do” —Dewey (1915) Recent analyses would change this paraphrase to: “Successful interventions to promote capabilities at any age do what successful parents and mentors do” Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 95 / 122 Mechanisms—producing effects (a) Information (b) Changing preferences of parents (c) Parental response to child’s curiosity and interest induced by participation in the program Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 96 / 122 Figure 22: Parental Warmth, Perry Preschool . .4 Density .3 .2 .1 0 -2 -1 0 1 Parental Warmth 2 3 Pooled Control Treatment Note: This figure presents the densities –pooled and by treatment status– for a single factor summarizing a set of questions in the Perry questionnaire attempting to measure how much affection the child gets from the parent(s). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 97 / 122 Figure 23: Family Conflict, Perry Preschool . .8 Density .6 .4 .2 0 -2 0 2 4 Family Conflict Pooled Control Treatment Note: this figure presents the densities –pooled and by treatment status– for a single factor summarizing a set of questions in the Perry questionnaire attempting to measure family conflict in the household. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 98 / 122 Figure 24: Parental Authority, Perry . .4 Density .3 .2 .1 0 -4 -2 0 2 Parental Authority Pooled Control Treatment Note: this figure presents the densities –pooled and by treatment status– for a single factor summarizing a set of questions in the Perry questionnaire attempting to measure how much discipline the child is subject to from the parent(s). Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 99 / 122 Figure 25: Spending per student on pre-primary education was low in Japan in 2009 Note: The bars show public (bottom part) and private (top part) education spending in US dollars, adjusted for price level differences across countries, for children too young for primary school. Annual spending is based on the number of students, calculated on a full-time basis. Source: OECD (2012f), OECD Education at a Glance 2012. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 100 / 122 Understanding the Dynamics of Skill Formation: Skills Beget Skills Synergisms: Skills Enhance Each Other Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 102 / 122 Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 103 / 122 Figure 26: Framework for Understanding Skill Development Prenatal Inherited Traits Prenatal Investments Skills Birth Skills Childhood Skills Adulthood Parenting, Environment, School Parenting, Environment, School Higher Education Earnings Crime Health Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 104 / 122 Static complementarity: Having higher level of a skill boosts productivity of other skills in investment and performance Dynamic complementarity: Investing today boosts the skill base for tomorrow Dynamic complementarity increases with age Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 106 / 122 Critical and sensitive periods Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 107 / 122 But Early Life Conditions Are Not the Full Story: Resilience, Recovery, and Repair Many Later Remediation Efforts Targeted to the Less Able are Costly and Often Ineffective But Some Adolescent Policies are Effective Mentoring and Information has a Powerful Effect Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 110 / 122 The policies that are effective for adolescents provide mentoring and integrate schooling and work. At the core of effective mentoring is what is at the core of effective parenting: attachment, interaction, and trust. Effective policies focus on developing social and emotional skills, teaching conscientiousness. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 111 / 122 Mentoring can be effective—workplace-based intervention shape noncognitive skills. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 112 / 122 What about promoting education? Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 113 / 122 Early development is as important as education in promoting wages, employment, and health. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 114 / 122 Disparities by Education (Post-compulsory Education) • Education, Wages, Employment, and Health Note: Conti and Heckman (2010). Author’s calculations using British Cohort Study, 1970. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 115 / 122 Schooling promotes cognitive and noncognitive abilities Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 116 / 122 Expected value of te 0 Expected value of test Expected value of test Expected value of te 0 0 0 Figure 27: Causal Effect of Schooling−.5 on ASVAB Measures of Cognition −.5 −.5 Less than 12 12 13 −15 16 or more Less than 12 12 13 −15 16 or more Years of completed schooling at test date Years of completed schooling at test date 0.5 0 −0.5 Expected value of test score, covariates fixed at mean 1 1.5 1 .5 0 −.5 Less than 12 than 12 Less 12 Years ofYears completed schooling at test date of completed schooling at test date of test score, covariates fixed at mean (c) (c) 1.5 1.5 1 1 .5 0.5 0 0 −.5 −0.5 13 −15 13 −1516 or more 16 or more 12 f test score, covariates fixed at mean (b) Math (b) Knowledge (b) 1.5 Mean value of test score, covariates fixed at mean Mean value of test score, covariates fixed at mean 1.5 Expected value of test score, covariates fixed at mean (a) Paragraph (a) Comprehension (a) −.5 13 −15 16 or more Less than 12 12 13 −15 16 or more Less than 12 12 Years of completed schooling at test date Years of completed schooling at test date 13 −1513 −15 16 or 16 12 12 more or more Years of completed schooling at testatdate Years of completed schooling test date Less than Less12 than 12 (d) (d) 1.5 Source: Heckman et al. (2006). Notes: Mean effect of schooling on components of the ASVAB. The first four 1 1 components are averaged to create males with average ability. We standardize the test scores to have within-sample mean zero and variance one. The model is estimated using the NLSY79 sample. Solid lines depict average test scores, and .5 .5 dashed lines, 2.5%–97.5% confidence intervals. Regressors are fixed at means. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 117 / 122 Expected value of test score .2 Figure 28: Causal Effect of Schooling on Two0 Measures of Non-Cognitive Skill −.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 −0.2 Less than 12 12 13 or more Years of completed schooling at test date Less than 12 12 13 or more Years of completed schooling at test date (d) Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (a) Expected value of test score, covariates fixed at mean Expected value of test score, covariates fixed at mean (c) Rotter Locus of Control Scale 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 −0.2 Less than 12 12 13 or more Years of completed schooling at test date f test score, covariates fixed at mean Source: Heckman et al. (2006). (a) Notes: Effect of.8 schooling on socioemotional scales for males with average ability, with 95% confidence bands. The locus of control scale is based on the four-item abbreviated version of the Rotter Internal-External Locus of Control Scale. This scale is designed to measure the extent to which individuals believe they have control over their lives through self-motivation or .6 self-determination (internal control), as opposed to the extent to which individuals believe that the environment controls their lives (external control). The self-esteem scale is based on the 10-item Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale. This scale describes a degree of approval .4 or disapproval toward oneself. In both cases, we standardize the test scores to have within-sample mean zero and variance one, after taking averages over the respective sets of scales. The model is estimated using the NLSY79 sample. Solid lines depict average test scores, and dashed lines, 2.5%–97.5% confidence intervals. Regressors are fixed at .2 means. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 118 / 122 Summary Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 119 / 122 Returns to a Unit Yen Invested Rate of Return to Investment in Human Capital Prenatal programs 0 Programs targetted toward the earliest years Preschool programs Schooling Job Training Prenatal 0–3 4–5 School Post-Schooll • For the disadvantaged, spending in most societies is almost in reverse order. • This diagram and its policy message have to be carefully digested. • It presents the rate of return to a unit of investment in parenting at the beginning of the life of the child. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 121 / 122 • Predistribution, not just redistribution. • Prevention, not just remediation. Creating Capabilities, September 23, 2014 5:11pm 122 / 122