AMU Deviation Indicator
for Coordinated Exchange Rate Policies in East Asia
and its relation with effective exchange rates
Eiji Ogawa and Junko Shimizu
Hitotsubashi University and RIETI
and
Meikai University
December 8, 2006
TIER-RIETI Workshop
1
Motivation
„
„
„
Regional Cooperation and Surveillance process
Chiang Mai Initiative and Swap Agreement
Regular meetings as ASEAN+3 Finance Deputy Ministers
Meeting for surveillance
Ogawa and Shimizu (2005) proposed the creation of an Asian
Monetary Unit (AMU) and AMU Deviation Indicators for East
Asian currencies in order to contribute to coordinated exchange
rate policies in East Asia.
How can we actually use the AMU and AMU deviation
Indicators for stabilization of effective exchange rates?
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Lessons from the Asian
Currency Crisis
„
(1)
(2)
(3)
East Asian countries had the following
problems:
Double mismatch of financial
institutions’ B/S in terms of currencies
and maturities
Officially or de facto dollar pegging
exchange rate policy
No regional financial cooperation in
East Asia for currency crisis
prevention and management
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Two initiatives for regional
monetary and financial cooperation
„
Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) of
ASEAN+3 Finance Minister Meeting
(ASEAN+3)
(1)
Establish a network of currency swap
agreements for currency crisis managements
Conduct a surveillance process for currency
crisis prevention
(2)
„
Asian Bond Market Initiative (ABMI)
of ASEAN+3 and Asian Bond Fund
(ABF) Initiative of EMEAP
(1)
Foster and develop domestic bond markets
Promote cross-boarder transactions of local
currency denominated and regional monetary
unit denominated bonds
(2)
4
Current problem: Coordination
failure in exchange rate systems
„
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
„
A variety of exchange rate systems among East
Asian countries (IMF classification)
Flexible: Japan, Korea, Philippines
Managed floating: Thailand, Singapore,
Indonesia, New ASEAN Countries
Fixed: China and Malaysia (Managed floating
since July 2005)
Currency Board (Strictly fixed): Hong Kong and
Brunei
Possibility of misalignments of intra-regional
exchange rates among East Asian currencies
caused by the US$ depreciation under the
coordination failure of exchange rate systems
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Coordination of exchange
rate policy in East Asia
East Asian countries have strong economic relationships
with each other within the intra-region as well as the
United States and European countries. It is important for
them to stabilize effective exchange rates.
„
It is the most desirable for East Asian countries to stabilize
both exchange rates among the intra-regional currencies
and their exchange rates against outside currencies such as
the US$ and the euro.
-> stabilize exchange rates of East Asian currencies against a
common G3 currency (US$, euro, and JPY) basket
„
It is the second best that they should stabilize intraregional exchange rate in a situation where regional
production networks have been establishing.
-> stabilize exchange rates of East Asian currency against a
common regional monetary unit.
„
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Purposes for RMU
„
„
RMUs can serve as a useful benchmark in monitoring
foreign exchange market in order to judge whether the
currency is overvalued or undervalued compared to the
neighbour countries with strong trade relationship.
Ogawa and Shimizu (2005) proposed an Asian Monetary
Unit (AMU)
Joint Project of Hi-Stat and RIETI for AMU and AMU Deviation
Indicator. (see in websites
http://www.rieti.go.jp/users/amu/en/index.html of RIETI )
„
„
consists of ASEAN+3 currencies, calculating the weight of
each currency by using trade volume and GDP measured at
PPP
appropriate in monitoring misalignment and volatility of the
relative value of Asian currencies within the region and
against the major currencies outside the region.
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Objectives
„
„
„
Calculate Asian Monetary Unit (AMU), a weighted
average of the East Asian currencies.
Calculate a deviation indicator (AMU Deviation
Indicator) from benchmark rate for the estimated
AMU.
Investigate relationships between the AMU
Deviation Indicators and the effective exchange
rates for each East Asian currency.
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Contents
Sec.2 Calculation of the AMU
Sec.3 Nominal/Real AMU Deviation Indicators
of each East Asian currency
Sec.4 Relationship of effective exchange rate with
AMU and AMU Deviation Indicators for each
East Asian currency
Sec.5 Conclusion
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Methodology
to calculate the AMU
„
„
„
Member countries
ASEAN10 + Japan, China and Korea
Period
from January 1999 to June 2005
To follow the methodology to calculate the ECU
䋨see Tanaka and Jin, 2003䋩
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The basket weights of AMU
„
„
The basket weights based on
¾ the countries’ respective shares of GDP
measured at PPP
¾ the trade volumes (the sum of exports and
imports) in the total of sampled countries for the
relevant country.
We use the average of both data for the last three
years (2001-2003).
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Data
„
„
„
Trade data are from Direction of Trade Statistics,
IMF.
GDP measured at PPP are from World
Development Report, World Bank.
Exchange rates are from Datastream.
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AMU in terms of US$-euro
„
„
We should use a basket currency composed by
the US dollar and the euro (US$-euro) as a
numeraire currency to estimate AMU.
We apply trade shares with the US and the euro
area (EU12) for total of the sampled East Asian
countries as basket weights of US$-euro.
(US dollar : euro = 65% : 35%)
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To choose the benchmark period
for AMU
„
„
The benchmark period is defined as the following:
¾ the total trade balance of member countries
¾ the total trade balance of the member countries
(excluding Japan) with Japan
¾ the total trade balance of member countries with
the rest of world
should be relatively close to zero.
The benchmark exchange rate for each currency is
defined in terms of the AMU during 2000-2001.
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Weights of AMU based on GDP
measured at PPP and Trade Volume
„
US $ / euro
We calculate an AMU with the weights based on
“GDP measured at PPP” and “Trade volume”
according to the following formula.
AMU
0.0069 US $ / euro
7.4235 US $ / euro
2.7711US $ / euro
BN $
CBR
CNY
452.7871US $ / euro
30.5681US $ / euro
113.1459 US $ / euro
IDR
JPY
KRW
5.9500 US $ / euro
0.1953US $ / euro
0.0239 US $ / euro
LOK
MLR
MYK
1.3347 US $ / euro
0.1075 US $ / euro
2.0630 US $ / euro
PLP
SP $
TLB
243.0432 US $ / euro
VTD
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How to calculate
the Nominal Deviation Indicator
„
Using the estimated AMU, we calculate the Nominal
Deviation Indicator as follows:
benchmark rate : each currency’s exchange rate in terms of
AMU at the benchmark period
actual exchange rate : exchange rate of each currency in terms
of AMU which fluctuates as the each currency actually move
Nominal Deviation Indicator (%)
actual exchange rate of AMU
a currency
- benchmark exchange rate of AMU
benchmark exchange rate of AMU
a currency
u100
a currency
(1)
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AMU Deviation Indicator from
the Benchmark Rate(%)
Deviation
Indicator(%)
The actual exchange rate in terms of the
AMU is stronger than the Benchmark Rate
in terms of the AMU.
The actual exchange rate
=the Benchmark Rate
Jan
2001
May
2005
The actual exchange rate in terms of
AMU is weaker than the Benchmark Rate
in terms of the AMU.
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Nominal and Real
Deviation Indicators
„
We should take into account inflation rate
differentials if we consider real effect of exchange
rates on trade, FDI and real economic activities
(real GDP).
„
We calculate also deviation indicators in real terms
by taking into account inflation rate differentials.
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How to calculate
Real Deviation Indicator
„ We can calculate a Real AMU Deviation Indicator
as follows:
Rate of Change in Real AMU Deviation Indicatori
Rate of Change in Nominal AMU Deviation Indicatori PAMU Pi
PAMU : inflation rate in the AMU area
P : inflation rate in country i.
i
„
„
We use CPI data to calculate the inflation rates.
CPI of AMU: weighted CPI of member countries
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Merits and Demerits of
Nominal and Real indicators
„
„
„
„
The nominal deviation indicator can be watched in
real time while the real deviation indicator are
available only in monthly basis.
Considering effects of exchange rate on real
economic activity, we should watch the deviation
indicators in real term.
Considering effects of exchange rate on monetary
aspects, the nominal deviation indicators are enough
to be concerned.
We could use both nominal and real deviation
indicators as an indicator for the surveillance.
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Relationship of EER
with AMU and AMU DI
„
Does the combination of the AMU and a Nominal
AMU Deviation Indicator of one currency
correspond to its nominal effective exchange rate?
„
We investigate how the movements of the AMU
and the AMU Deviation Indicators reflect in the
movements of effective exchange rates.
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Effective Exchange Rates
„
Two types of effective exchange rate
¾ an effective exchange rate in terms of
currencies of the rest of world (“ROW”)
¾
an effective exchange rate in terms of
currencies of the rest of sampled East Asian
countries (“ROEA”)
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Regression
„
„
„
The EERs are regressed on both the AMU and the
AMU Deviation Indicator for each currency.
' log EERROW
E 0 E1 ˜ ' log AMU E 2 ˜ ' AMUDI
' log EERROEA
E0 E1 ˜ ' log AMU E 2 ˜ ' AMUDI
Sample period: from January 1999 to December
2004
Number of observation: 71 after adjusting
endpoints.
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㪁㪁
㪄
㪈㪅㩷㪪㪸㫄㫇㫃㪼㩷㫇㪼㫉㫀㫆㪻㩷㫀㫊㩷㪽㫉㫆㫄㩷㪡㪸㫅㩷㪈㪐㪐㪐㩷㫋㫆㩷㪛㪼㪺㩷㪉㪇㪇㪋㪅㩷㪘㫃㫃㩷㪻㪸㫋㪸㩷㪸㫉㪼㩷㫄㫆㫅㫋㪿㫃㫐㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫅㫌㫄㪹㪼㫉㩷㫆㪽㩷㪦㪹㫊㪼㫉㫍㪸㫋㫀㫆㫅㩷㫀㫊㩷㪎㪈㪸㪽㫋㪼㫉㩷㪸㪻㫁㫌㫊㫋㫀㫅㪾
㪼㫅㪻㫇㫆㫀㫅㫋㫊㪅
㪉㪅㩷㪜㪽㪽㪼㪺㫋㫀㫍㪼㩷㪼㫏㪺㪿㪸㫅㪾㪼㩷㫉㪸㫋㪼㩷㩿㪩㪦㪮㪀㩷㫀㫊㩷㪺㪸㫃㪺㫌㫃㪸㫋㪼㪻㩷㪹㫐㩷㫌㫊㫀㫅㪾㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫋㫉㪸㪻㪼㩷㪻㪸㫋㪸㩷㪸㪾㪸㫀㫅㫊㫋㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫉㪼㫊㫋㩷㫆㪽㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫎㫆㫉㫃㪻㪅㩷㪦㫅㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫆㫋㪿㪼㫉㩷㪿㪸㫅㪻㪃㩷㪼㪽㪽㪼㪺㫋㫀㫍㪼
㪼㫏㪺㪿㪸㫅㪾㪼㩷㫉㪸㫋㪼㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀㩷㫀㫊㩷㪺㪸㫃㪺㫌㫃㪸㫋㪼㪻㩷㪹㫐㩷㫌㫊㫀㫅㪾㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫋㫉㪸㪻㪼㩷㪻㪸㫋㪸㩷㪸㪾㪸㫀㫅㫊㫋㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㪪㪸㫄㫇㫃㪼㪻㩷㪜㪸㫊㫋㩷㪘㫊㫀㪸㫅㩷㪺㫆㫌㫅㫋㫉㫀㪼㫊㪅
㪊㪅㩷㪘㪤㪬㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪘㪤㪬㩷㪛㪼㫍㫀㪸㫋㫀㫆㫅㩷㪠㫅㪻㫀㪺㪸㫋㫆㫉㩷㩿㫅㫆㫄㫀㫅㪸㫃㪀㩷㪸㫉㪼㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫄㫆㫅㫋㫃㫐㩷㪸㫍㪼㫉㪸㪾㪼㩷㫆㪽㩷㪻㪸㫀㫃㫐㩷㪺㪸㫃㪺㫌㫃㪸㫋㪼㪻㩷㪘㪤㪬㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪘㪤㪬㩷㪛㪼㫍㫀㪸㫋㫀㫆㫅㩷㪠㫅㪻㫀㪺㪸㫋㫆㫉㫊㪃
㫉㪼㫊㫇㪼㪺㫋㫀㫍㪼㫃㫐㪅
㪋㪅㩷㪜㫊㫋㫀㫄㪸㫋㪼㪻㩷㫄㪼㫋㪿㫆㪻㩷㫀㫊㩷㪦㪣㪪㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪅㩷㪠㪽㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫉㪼㫊㫀㪻㫌㪸㫃㩷㪿㪸㫊㩷㫊㪼㫉㫀㪸㫃㩷㪺㫆㫉㫉㪼㫃㪸㫋㫀㫆㫅㪃㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫋㪼㫉㫄㩷㫆㪽㩷㪘㪩㩿㪈㪀㩷㫀㫊㩷㪸㪻㪻㪼㪻㪅㩷㪪㫋㪸㫅㪻㪸㫉㪻㩷㪼㫉㫉㫆㫉㫊㩷㪸㫉㪼㩷㫀㫅
December 8, 2006
TIER-RIETI Workshop
㫇㪸㫉㪼㫅㫋㪿㪼㫊㫀㫊㪅䇭㪁㪃㩷㪁㪁㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪁㪁㪁㩷㪻㪼㫅㫆㫋㪼㩷㫊㫋㪸㫋㫀㫊㫋㫀㪺㪸㫃㩷㫊㫀㪾㫅㫀㪽㫀㪺㪸㫅㪺㪼㩷㪸㫋㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㪈㪇㩼㪃㩷㪌㩼㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪈㩼㩷㫃㪼㫍㪼㫃㫊㪃㩷㫉㪼㫊㫇㪼㪺㫋㫀㫍㪼㫃㫐㪅
30
㪫㪸㪹㫃㪼㩷㪋㪅㩷㪩㪼㫃㪸㫋㫀㫆㫅㫊㪿㫀㫇㩷㫆㪽㩷㪼㪽㪽㪼㪺㫋㫀㫍㪼㩷㪼㫏㪺㪿㪸㫅㪾㪼㩷㫉㪸㫋㪼㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀㩷㫎㫀㫋㪿㩷㪘㪤㪬㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪘㪤㪬㩷㪛㪼㫍㫀㪸㫋㫀㫆㫅㩷㪠㫅㪻㫀㪺㪸㫋㫆㫉
㪜㪽㪽㪼㪺㫋㫀㫍㪼㩷㪜㫏㪺㪿㪸㫅㪾㪼㩷㪩㪸㫋㪼
㪺㫆㫅㫊㫋㪸㫅㫋
㪘㪤㪬
㪘㪤㪬
㪛㪼㫍㫀㪸㫋㫀㫆㫅
㪠㫅㪻㫀㪺㪸㫋㫆㫉
㪘㪩㩿㪈㪀
㪡㪸㫇㪸㫅㪼㫊㪼㩷㫐㪼㫅㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪉㪐
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪌㪉㪀
㪇㪅㪈㪏㪊㪉
㩿㪇㪅㪍㪊㪋㪏㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪈㪊㪊
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪋㪉㪀
㪁㪁㪁 㪄㪇㪅㪉㪇㪇㪐
㩿㪇㪅㪈㪉㪈㪍㪀
㪚㪿㫀㫅㪼㫊㪼㩷㫐㫌㪸㫅㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪊㪈
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪊㪎㪀
㪇㪅㪏㪌㪐㪌
㩿㪇㪅㪋㪈㪊㪏㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪊㪇㪇
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪌㪌㪀
㪁㪁㪁 㪄㪇㪅㪊㪇㪉㪍
㩿㪇㪅㪈㪈㪐㪐㪀
㪢㫆㫉㪼㪸㫅㩷㫎㫆㫅㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪌㪌
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪋㪌㪀
㪇㪅㪋㪈㪐㪈
㩿㪇㪅㪍㪇㪎㪍㪀
㪪㫀㫅㪾㪸㫇㫆㫉㪼㩷㩻㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪋㪐
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪋㪎㪀
㪫㪿㪸㫀㫃㪸㫅㪻㩷㪹㪸㪿㫋㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀
㪘㪻㫁㫌㫊㫋㪼㪻
㪩㪄㫊㫈㫌㪸㫉㪼㪻
㪝㪄㫊㫋㪸㫋㫀㫊㫋㫀㪺
㪇㪅㪈㪉㪈㪊
㪋㪅㪈㪎㪌㪋
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪐㪈㪀
㪁㪁
㪇㪅㪊㪈㪋㪉
㪈㪈㪅㪌㪊㪏㪉
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪇㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪉
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪋㪉㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪋㪋㪎㪐 㪁㪁㪁
㩿㪇㪅㪈㪈㪇㪏㪀
㪇㪅㪈㪍㪍㪎
㪌㪅㪍㪇㪊㪍
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪎㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪋㪍㪏㪉
㩿㪇㪅㪍㪎㪌㪐㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪇㪐㪐
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪐㪍㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪋㪈㪋㪊 㪁㪁㪁
㩿㪇㪅㪈㪈㪇㪉㪀
㪇㪅㪈㪎㪈㪇
㪌㪅㪎㪋㪌㪋
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪌㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪊㪊
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪍㪋㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪈㪌㪎㪍
㩿㪇㪅㪏㪇㪇㪇㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪈㪈㪎
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪌㪍㪀
㪁㪁
㪄㪇㪅㪋㪉㪈㪉 㪁㪁㪁
㩿㪇㪅㪈㪈㪉㪇㪀
㪇㪅㪈㪍㪈㪇
㪌㪅㪋㪈㪋㪌
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪉㪉㪀
㪠㫅㪻㫆㫅㪼㫊㫀㪸㫅㩷㫉㫌㫇㫀㪸㪿㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪇㪌㪈
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪋㪐㪀
㪈㪅㪇㪇㪏㪉
㩿㪇㪅㪍㪈㪋㪎㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪈㪇㪐
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪊㪀
㪁㪁㪁 㪄㪇㪅㪋㪊㪍㪏 㪁㪁㪁
㩿㪇㪅㪈㪈㪏㪇㪀
㪇㪅㪋㪌㪐㪐
㪉㪇㪅㪌㪐㪈㪎
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪇㪀
㪤㪸㫃㪸㫐㫊㫀㪸㫅㩷㫉㫀㫅㪾㪾㫀㫋㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪎
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪎㪇㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪋㪐㪊㪈
㩿㪇㪅㪐㪏㪎㪐㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪈㪐㪏
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪈㪇㪋㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪉㪊㪇㪋 㪁㪁㪁
㩿㪇㪅㪈㪈㪌㪉㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪏㪎㪉
㪊㪅㪈㪐㪍㪉
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪉㪐㪇㪀
㪧㪿㫀㫃㫀㫇㫇㫀㫅㪼㩷㫇㪼㫊㫇㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪇㪈㪇㪏
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪈㪇㪋㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪎㪐㪐㪌
㩿㪈㪅㪈㪋㪉㪏㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪇㪍㪎
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪎㪊㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪉㪋㪊㪇
㩿㪇㪅㪈㪈㪐㪎㪀
㪁㪁
㪇㪅㪇㪊㪊㪐
㪈㪅㪏㪇㪏㪏
㩿㪇㪅㪈㪌㪋㪈㪀
㪙㫉㫌㫅㪼㫀㩷㩻㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪋㪈
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪈㪏㪍㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪌㪐㪈㪌
㩿㪉㪅㪍㪋㪈㪍㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪌㪎㪐
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪊㪎㪏㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪋㪈㪎㪈 㪁㪁㪁
㩿㪇㪅㪈㪈㪉㪐㪀
㪇㪅㪈㪏㪊㪏
㪍㪅㪈㪏㪈㪈
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪐㪀
㪚㪸㫄㪹㫆㪻㫀㪸㫅㩷㫉㫀㪼㫃㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪇㪉㪇㪇
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪊㪊㪎㪀
㪌㪅㪍㪊㪌㪌
㩿㪊㪅㪍㪍㪋㪍㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪍㪈㪈
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪊㪉㪈㪀
㪄
㪇㪅㪇㪊㪊㪌
㪉㪅㪉㪈㪉㪎
㩿㪇㪅㪈㪈㪎㪉㪀
㪣㪸㫆㫊㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪇㪌㪋㪉
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪊㪍㪎㪀
㪉㪅㪉㪎㪏㪈
㩿㪊㪅㪍㪏㪉㪋㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪉㪏
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪋㪐㪀
㪄
㪄㪇㪅㪇㪈㪎㪌
㪇㪅㪊㪐㪏㪍
㩿㪇㪅㪍㪎㪉㪏㪀
㪤㫐㪸㫅㫄㪸㫉㩷㫂㫐㪸㫋㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪇
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪈㪋㪏㪀
㪈㪅㪇㪋㪉㪊
㩿㪉㪅㪉㪐㪇㪏㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪈㪈㪈
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪉㪈㪋㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪌㪉㪎㪋 㪁㪁㪁
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪐㪏㪌㪀
㪇㪅㪉㪍㪊㪐
㪐㪅㪉㪋㪍㪏
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪇㪀
㪭㫀㪼㫋㫅㪸㫄㪼㫊㪼㩷㪻㫆㫅㪾㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪋㪏
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪈㪇㪐㪀
㪈㪅㪇㪇㪎㪐
㩿㪈㪅㪌㪇㪐㪈㪀
㪇㪅㪇㪈㪊㪋
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪈㪍㪈㪀
㪄㪇㪅㪋㪏㪇㪐 㪁㪁㪁
㩿㪇㪅㪈㪈㪈㪋㪀
㪇㪅㪈㪐㪈㪍
㪍㪅㪉㪐㪋㪇
㩿㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪏㪀
㪁㪁
㪁
㪁
㪁
㪈㪅㩷㪪㪸㫄㫇㫃㪼㩷㫇㪼㫉㫀㫆㪻㩷㫀㫊㩷㪽㫉㫆㫄㩷㪡㪸㫅㩷㪈㪐㪐㪐㩷㫋㫆㩷㪛㪼㪺㩷㪉㪇㪇㪋㪅㩷㪘㫃㫃㩷㪻㪸㫋㪸㩷㪸㫉㪼㩷㫄㫆㫅㫋㪿㫃㫐㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫅㫌㫄㪹㪼㫉㩷㫆㪽㩷㪦㪹㫊㪼㫉㫍㪸㫋㫀㫆㫅㩷㫀㫊㩷㪎㪈㪸㪽㫋㪼㫉㩷㪸㪻㫁㫌㫊㫋㫀㫅㪾
㪼㫅㪻㫇㫆㫀㫅㫋㫊㪅
㪉㪅㩷㪜㪽㪽㪼㪺㫋㫀㫍㪼㩷㪼㫏㪺㪿㪸㫅㪾㪼㩷㫉㪸㫋㪼㩷㩿㪩㪦㪮㪀㩷㫀㫊㩷㪺㪸㫃㪺㫌㫃㪸㫋㪼㪻㩷㪹㫐㩷㫌㫊㫀㫅㪾㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫋㫉㪸㪻㪼㩷㪻㪸㫋㪸㩷㪸㪾㪸㫀㫅㫊㫋㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫉㪼㫊㫋㩷㫆㪽㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫎㫆㫉㫃㪻㪅㩷㪦㫅㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫆㫋㪿㪼㫉㩷㪿㪸㫅㪻㪃㩷㪼㪽㪽㪼㪺㫋㫀㫍㪼
㪼㫏㪺㪿㪸㫅㪾㪼㩷㫉㪸㫋㪼㩷㩿㪩㪦㪜㪘㪀㩷㫀㫊㩷㪺㪸㫃㪺㫌㫃㪸㫋㪼㪻㩷㪹㫐㩷㫌㫊㫀㫅㪾㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫋㫉㪸㪻㪼㩷㪻㪸㫋㪸㩷㪸㪾㪸㫀㫅㫊㫋㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㪪㪸㫄㫇㫃㪼㪻㩷㪜㪸㫊㫋㩷㪘㫊㫀㪸㫅㩷㪺㫆㫌㫅㫋㫉㫀㪼㫊㪅
㪊㪅㩷㪘㪤㪬㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪘㪤㪬㩷㪛㪼㫍㫀㪸㫋㫀㫆㫅㩷㪠㫅㪻㫀㪺㪸㫋㫆㫉㩷㩿㫅㫆㫄㫀㫅㪸㫃㪀㩷㪸㫉㪼㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫄㫆㫅㫋㫃㫐㩷㪸㫍㪼㫉㪸㪾㪼㩷㫆㪽㩷㪻㪸㫀㫃㫐㩷㪺㪸㫃㪺㫌㫃㪸㫋㪼㪻㩷㪘㪤㪬㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪘㪤㪬㩷㪛㪼㫍㫀㪸㫋㫀㫆㫅㩷㪠㫅㪻㫀㪺㪸㫋㫆㫉㫊㪃
㫉㪼㫊㫇㪼㪺㫋㫀㫍㪼㫃㫐㪅
㪋㪅㩷㪜㫊㫋㫀㫄㪸㫋㪼㪻㩷㫄㪼㫋㪿㫆㪻㩷㫀㫊㩷㪦㪣㪪㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪅㩷㪠㪽㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫉㪼㫊㫀㪻㫌㪸㫃㩷㪿㪸㫊㩷㫊㪼㫉㫀㪸㫃㩷㪺㫆㫉㫉㪼㫃㪸㫋㫀㫆㫅㪃㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㫋㪼㫉㫄㩷㫆㪽㩷㪘㪩㩿㪈㪀㩷㫀㫊㩷㪸㪻㪻㪼㪻㪅㩷㪪㫋㪸㫅㪻㪸㫉㪻㩷㪼㫉㫉㫆㫉㫊㩷㪸㫉㪼㩷㫀㫅
㫇㪸㫉㪼㫅㫋㪿㪼㫊㫀㫊㪅䇭㪁㪃㩷㪁㪁㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪁㪁㪁㩷㪻㪼㫅㫆㫋㪼㩷㫊㫋㪸㫋㫀㫊㫋㫀㪺㪸㫃㩷㫊㫀㪾㫅㫀㪽㫀㪺㪸㫅㪺㪼㩷㪸㫋㩷㫋㪿㪼㩷㪈㪇㩼㪃㩷㪌㩼㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪈㩼㩷㫃㪼㫍㪼㫃㫊㪃㩷㫉㪼㫊㫇㪼㪺㫋㫀㫍㪼㫃㫐㪅
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Results:
„
„
„
For the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan, most of
the coefficients are significant and positive. These
results are due to the higher weights of both
currencies in AMU.
The coefficients on AMU DI are positive and
significant for the seven East Asian currencies.
These results indicate that the AMU DIs have
positive relationship with their EER for some of the
East Asian currencies.
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Conclusion
„
„
„
The strong relationships are found between the
AMU or the AMU DI and the EER for some East
Asian currencies.
Accordingly, we should monitor both the AMU
and the AMU DI in order to stabilize EER in terms
of trader partners’ currencies.
Although we cannot find strong relationship
between them for some currencies.
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Further research on
AMU and Deviation Indicator
„
The effects of our measurements (the AMU and the
AMU Real Deviation Indicators) on economic
variables in East Asian countries.
¾ Trade accounts within East Asian countries
¾ Trade accounts with US and euro Area
¾ GDP and others economic variables in the East
Asian countries
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