2015 Hurricane
Season Outlook
and Preparedness
Amy Godsey
State Meteorologist
State Emergency Response Team
Florida Division of Emergency Management
2015 Hurricane Season
Last
Hurricane
Landfall:
Kate 1985
Last Major
Hurricane
Landfall:
Eloise 1975
Tropical Cyclone Hazards
Tropical Cyclone Classifications
◆
Tropical Depression
◆
Tropical Storm
◆
Hurricane
◆
Sub-Tropical Storm,
Extratropical Storm,
Post-Tropical Storm
Hurricanes Come In All Sizes
FLOYD VS. ANDREW -- A SIZE COMPARISON
Larger storms will generate hazardous
conditions over a much greater area
Storm Surge
Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and
above the astronomical tides. Storm surge should not be confused with
storm tide, which is defined as the water level rise due to the
combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide. This rise in water
level can cause extreme flooding in coastal areas particularly when
storm surge coincides with normal high tide, resulting in storm tides
reaching up to 20 feet or more in some cases.
Debunking the Myth:
Surge Height Connected to
Storm Category
Cat . 3 Katrina:
27 ft
Cat. 2
IKE: 20 ft
Cat . 4
Charley: 7 ft
Factors Affecting Storm Surge
Intensity (wind speed)
Forward Speed
Angle of Approach
Size - Radius of Maximum Winds (RMW)
Width and Slope of Shelf
Local features – concavity of coastlines, bays, rivers, headlands, or
islands
Storm Surge Model Map
Know Your Zone
Storm Surge
Inundation Map
(NHC) will issue the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map for areas along the
Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States at risk of storm surge from a
tropical cyclone.
This new map will show:
• Geographical areas where inundation from storm surge could occur.
• How high above ground the water could reach in those areas.
Here are some things to know about this map:
• The map shows inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being
exceeded, and can be though of as representing a reasonable worst-case
scenario.
• The map is subject to change every 6 hours with every new NHC advisory.
• Due to processing time required to produce the map, it may not be
available until 45-60 minutes after the advisory release.
• Available as an interactive image for 2014. GIS exportable data (able to be
uploaded into GATOR) possibly available for 2015.
Waves and Rip Currents
• 6 deaths in 2010 & 2012
• Hidden danger because it can occur when a storm is
well offshore
• Swells from a large hurricane can affect the beaches
of the entire western Atlantic
Hurricane-Induced Tornadoes
• Nearly 70% of landfalling hurricanes
(1948-2000) spawned at least 1
tornado
• 40% of landfalling hurricanes spawn
more than 3 tornadoes
• Some hurricanes produce tornado
“outbreaks”
–
–
–
–
–
–
Hurricane Beulah (1967): 141
Hurricane Ivan (2004): 117
Hurricane Frances (2004): 101
Hurricane Rita (2005): 90
Hurricane Camille (1969): 80
Hurricane Katrina (2005): 43
Where Do Most Tornadoes Occur?
Tornadoes with hurricanes:
• Friction with land creates
low-level wind conditions
favorable for the
development of tornadoes
Low Tornado
Threat
• More than 90% of all
tornadoes occur in the
right front quadrant of the
storm relative to the storm
motion
• Most develop more than
100 miles away from the
center of the storm
Lowest
Tornado
Threat
Greatest
Tornado
Threat
Moderate
Tornado
Threat
Floods
Magnified in urban areas
Boats Float, Cars Don’t
Percentage of Significant
Floods Associated With
Tropical Cyclones
Hurricane Forecasting
Forecasting Hurricanes
…sparse ocean data
Reconnaissance:
Vital Data
Satellites: GOES
and QuikSCAT
(OSVW)
Dropsondes from
Reconnaissance
NWS WFOs:
Radar, Upper Air
soundings,
Local expertise
Ships and Buoys:
ocean surface data
Land
Observations
Katrina 5 Day Forecast Model Plots
08/24/2005 1:00 pm CDT.
Forecast Cone
• It’s not an impact
cone!
• Represents the
probable track of the
cyclone center
• Formed by
connecting circles on
each forecast point
(12hr, 24, 36, etc)
Impacts often
occur outside the
cone
How Does 2015 Look?
Total #
Named
Storms
9 19 19 19 14
8
Tropical
Storms
6
1
2
1
Hurricanes
Major
Hurricanes
Florida
Landfalls
ENSO
phase
El Niño
7
7
5
1
12
3
4
0
La Niña Weak La
Niña
9
8
2
2
12
2
0
1
2
6
2
0
Weak La
Niña Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Pre-Season
Forecasts
Named Storms
Hurricanes
Major
Hurricanes
Whether below or above normal…
tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin will
always pose risks & preparedness is a must
• Seasonal forecast models look at similar years
to make seasonal predictions
• 1997 (8/3/1) & 2002 (12/4/2) were two recent
prior years that featured developing El Nino
conditions in the Pacific
• Seasonal predictions CAN’T tell you where
landfalls are most likely. Note the differences
between 2001 and 2008
2001 Hurricane Season
15 named storms
8 hurricanes
2008 Hurricane Season
16 named storms
8 hurricanes
Steering Currents are the Key
30
25
20
Named Storms
Actual Named
15
Hurricanes
Actual Hurricanes
10
5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Accuracy
51% (-) 62%(+) 85%(+) 91%(-) 66%(+) 95% 83%
62%(-) 53%(+)
30
25
20
Named Storms
Actual Named
15
Hurricanes
Actual Hurricanes
10
5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Accuracy
53%(-) 57%(+) 77%(+) 97%
63%(+) 89%(-)
84%
59%(-) 50%(+)
The Only Seasonal Forecast You
Need...
2013
Preparedness is Key
A Growing Population At Risk
KS
+6.1%
OK
+8.7%
TX
+20.6%
MO
+7.0%
KY +7.4%
TN +11.5%
TX
+9.1%
MS
+4.3%
VA +13.0%
NC
+18.3%
SC
+15.3%
AL
GA
+7.5% +18.3%
LA
+1.4%
Percent Change From
2000-2010
FL
+17.6%
Population
Density, Census
2000
What Every Floridian Needs to
Know About Hurricanes
•
•
•
•
•
•
It’s Going to Happen, It’s Just a Question of When
A Hurricane is NOT a Point on the Map
What are the Hurricane Hazards/Risks?
What does it mean to you?
What actions should you take to be prepared?
Where do I get information?
The Ugly Side of El Nino
Hazard Analysis
Hazard
Probability
Frequency
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
4
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
4
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Severity
Risk Factor
Human
2.67
2.67
4.00
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.00
3.00
4.50
4.50
3.00
3.00
4.00
2.00
2.00
5.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
4.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
1
2
1
2
3
2
2
2
3
3
1
1
3
1
1
3
3
1
1
1
2
5
5
4
2
5
(P/F)*S=RF
Severe Weather
Tropical Storm
Cyber Attack/Virus
Building Fire
Sick Building
Sink Holes
Hurricane - Cat 1 & 2
Tornado
Workplace Violence
Health Hazard/Disease
Building System Failure
Flooding
Hazmat Release
Bomb Threat
Terrorist Threat
Hurricane - Cat 3, 4, & 5
Lightning
Freeze
Drought
Earthquake
Tsunami
Explosion
Terrorist Event – WMD
Aircraft Accident
Civil Disturbance
Nuclear Attack
SCALE
Low
Below Average
Average
Above Average
High
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
4
1
1
5
3
1
3
2
4
5
5
5
5
5
1
2
3
4
5
SCALE
Low
Average
High
Extensive
Catastrophic
Property
Business
H+P+B=PD
2
2
4
4
1
4
3
3
1
1
3
4
3
1
1
4
2
1
1
2
4
5
5
5
2
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
4
4
4
4
3
3
4
4
2
4
4
2
2
4
1
1
3
2
4
5
5
5
5
5
Potential
Damage
4.00
6.00
9.00
10.00
8.00
10.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
6.00
9.00
10.00
4.00
4.00
11.00
6.00
3.00
5.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
15.00
14.00
9.00
15.00
Total
Vulnerability
RF/PD = V
67%
44%
44%
45%
56%
45%
50%
38%
56%
56%
50%
33%
40%
50%
50%
45%
50%
33%
60%
40%
40%
33%
33%
36%
56%
33%
DEM COOP Activation Level
COOP
Level
SEOC/SWO
Division/SEOC Timeline
3
Tallahassee Area
Disruption to 1 or 2 essential functions or to a vital system for Less than 24 hours
no more than three days.
Example: Power outage, Chiller incident, small fire or
moderate flood, renovations to primary facility
Less than 6 hours – Full SEOC Capabilities
2
Orlando / State
Disruption up to 3 or 4 essential functions or entire agency
Up to 72 hours
Logistics Resource with potential of lasting more than three days. COOP
activation to move staff to an alternate facility
Center
Example: Hurricane, workplace violence, major
communications failure or major power outage, sick building,
HAZMAT or Elevated Homeland Security Advisory System
Threat Level
6-12 hours – Full SEOC Capabilities
1
Camp Blanding
All Other Functions
Disruption to the entire agency with a potential for lasting at Up to 30 days/indefinite
least two weeks or more
period of time
Example: catastrophic event, explosion, terrorist attack,
contamination of primary facility; major fire or flooding;
earthquake, tsunami or Elevated Homeland Security Advisory
System Threat Level
6-12 hours – Full SEOC Capabilities
COOP Level
COOP Activation Checklist
Division/SEOC Timeline
3 CHECKLIST
Phase I- Activation and Relocation
1. Notify Relocation Team Manager and alternate facility of impending activation and
relocation requirements.
2. Notify DEM staff of impending activation
3. Notify affected local, state and federal agencies( by priority)
4. Activate COOP plans to transfer to alternate facility.
5. Instruct relocation team and IMT team to deploy to get alternate site ready for
staff.
6. Notify staff regarding activation of COOP plan and their status.
7. Notify vendors regarding activation of COOP plan and their status
8. Prepare for movement of documents and equipment required for primary mission
essential functions at alternate site.
9. Purchase/order needed equipment/supplies.
10. Transport documents, equipment and communications.
11. Make sure primary facility is secured before departure
12. Continue mission essential functions at primary facility, if available, until
alternate facility is ready.
13. Make sure primary facility is secured before departure
14. Advise alternate facility on status.
15. Deploy and Activate operations and support teams as necessary