28th ICAE
Globalization, Macroeconomic Imbalances and South
America’s potential do be the World’s Food Basket
Brazil's Role in
Global Food Security and Trade
Marcos S. Jank
Agribusiness and bioenergy expert
Former CEO of the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA)
Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil
August 18th, 2012
EVOLUTION OF THE WORLD POPULATION
7.0
6.0
Billion people
Urban
5.0
4.0
Rural
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1970
Source: FAO.
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
SHARE OF URBAN POPULATION
IN TOTAL POPULATION
100%
North America
South America
90%
Europe
80%
Oceania
70%
60%
Asia
50%
Africa
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1970
Source: FAO.
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION
(kcal/person/day)
3600
Developed countries
Transition
economies
Eastern Asia
Middle East &
North Africa
3200
Latin America
Southern Asia
2800
Sub-Saharan Africa
2400
2000
1999/01
2015
2030
2050
Over the next 40 years, we need to produce as much food as we did in the last 8,000 years!
Note: Latin America includes the Carribbean. Transition economies include Eastern Europe and the countries of the CIS.
Source: FAO (2006).
POTENTIAL LAND AND WATER AVAILABILITY
250
9000
8000
Land: Million hectares
Land
Water
7000
6000
150
5000
100
4000
3000
50
Water: Trillion m3/year
200
2000
1000
0
0
Note: Land – suitable non-cropped, non-protected (including pastures). Water – Total Renewable Water Sources.
Sources: Fischer and Shah (2010), cited in World Bank, 2010 (Rising Global Interest in Farmland: Can it Yield Sustainable and Equitable Benefits?),
ICONE, FAO.
Potential Land Availability
1,600
1,400
Million hectares
186
192
1,200
368
1,000
46,6%64,1%
252
360
61
800
284
600
445
238
176
62
100
485
449
886
865
400
528
494
200
0
Africa
Brazil
Latin America
and Caribbean
(excluding Brazil)
Eastern Europe
and Central Asia
East and South
Asia
Forest Area
Cutivated Area (Annual and Perennial Crops)
Suitable for agriculture non-cropped, non-protect (including pastures)
Source: Fischer and Shah (2010), cited in World Bank, 2010
( Rising Global Interest in Farmland: Can it Yield Sustainable and Equitable Benefits?)
Rest of World
Productivity in Brazil
Labor Productivity (2000 prices, thousand
Reais)
Sector
2002 2008 2009
Annual
Growth
2000-09
Agriculture
3.7
Industry:
Manufacturing 18.7
Total Industry 18.1
Services
14.5
4.8
4.7
4.30%
18.1
18.0
15.4
17.1
17.4
15.5
-0.90%
-0.60%
0.50%
Total
14.1
14.0
0.90%
12.9
Source: IPEA, Comunicado 133
Commodities
Others (no
commodities)
t test
Avg Growth
TFP/year
3.42%
-0.18%
-1.725*
Global Food Security
Brazilian Trade Balance
Bn US$ 76,3
US$ Billion (nominal)
80
60
40
Bn US$ 29,7
20
0
-20
-40
Bn US$ -47,7
-60
Agribusiness
Sources: SECEX/MDIC
Total
Other sectors
MAIN EXPORTERS OF AGRI-FOOD PRODUCTS
(2010)
160
6.2%
Annual Growth Rates 2000-2010
140
7.7%
US$ Billion
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source: WTO
Elaboration: ICONE
15.5%
3.9%
11.8%
17.1% 11.2% 11.3%
14.3%
5.1%
15.7%
11.4%
10.5%
8.0%
10.1%
BRAZILIAN AGRI-FOOD EXPORTS DYNAMISM
Soybean
Ranking
Share World
20
2nd
35%
Sugar/ Chicken
Ethanol Meat
1st
1st
46%
36%
Coffee
1st
33%
Bovine
Meat
1st
17%
Orange
Tobacco
Juice
1st
1st
77%
27%
Pork
Meat
3rd
8%
Average 1999-2001
18
US$ billions
16
Average 2009/2011
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Sources: AGROSTAT/Ministry of Agriculture, ITC, COMTRADE. Elaboration: ICONE
Maize
Cocoa
Cotton
4th
9.5%
8th
4%
3rd
10%
BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE EXPORTS:
THE IMPORTANCE OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
60
Developing countries
(CAGR 21%)
US$ Billion
50
40
Developed Countries
(CAGR 10%)
30
20
10
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Agrostat/MAPA. Elaboration: ICONE.
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE EXPORTS
BY DESTINATION
2000
2011
20%
20%
UE + EUA
4%
17%
32%
Ásia (excl. China)
59%
China
19%
Resto do Mundo
28%
ÁSIA TOTAL = 21%
Source: AGROSTAT/Ministry of Agriculture
ÁSIA TOTAL = 47%
PROFILE OF BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURAL
EXPORTS TO ASIA
Others
2000
Juices
2011
Tobacco and products
Cereals, flours and preparations
Leathers and derived products
Coffee
Fibers and textile products
Forest products
Sugarcane complex
Meats
Soybean complex
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
US$ Millions
Source: Agrostat. Elaboration: ICONE
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
CHANGES IN THE FOOD COMMODITY
COMPOSITION IN SOUTH ASIA
500
450
Meat
400
1969/71 = 100
350
300
Vegetable oils, oilseeds
Milk and dairy
250
Roots and tubers
200
Sugar
150
Cereals, food
100
Pulses
50
0
1969/71
1979/81
Sources: FAO, World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050
1989/91
1999/01
2030
2050
THANK YOU!
marcos@jank.com.br
21ST CENTURY: BEGINNING OF A NEW ERA
We are here
100
90
Biomass
(firewood)
80
70
60
50
Hydro
Modern
Biomass
Nuclear
Natural Gas
%
Solar
Oil
40
30
20
Coal
10
Other
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Sources: Nakícenovic, Grübler and MacDonald, 1998
ENERGY SOURCES NEED TO DIVERSIFY
IMPACT OF CHINESE INCREASING PER
CAPITA CONSUMPTION ON DEMAND
Product
Current Per Capita
Consumption (kg)
Impact of a Chinese 1 kg per
capita consumption increase
on exports
China
Brazil
World
Brazil
3.2
26.4
17%
51%
Poultry Meat
11.0
42.0
15%
21%
Sugar
12.3
68.9
2%
5%
Beef
Notes: exports in carcass weight equivalent.
Scenario: Increase in China’s demand was considered to be met fully by imports; for Brazil exports, highest share in world
exports in the last three years was considered.
Source: USDA, FAO. Elaboration: ICONE.
“Cerrados”: The Agricultural Frontier
BRAZIL
•
•
•
•
(850 million ha)
Not available: 500 million ha
Agriculture: 60 million ha
Pastures: 190 million ha
Available land: 100 million ha
“Cerrados”
Slow diversification from beef/soy
model to corn, cotton, sugarcane,
coffee, dairy, poultry, and pork
First
Expansion
(70’s 80’s)
Second
Expansion
(90’s 00’s)
(*) Not Available for agriculture/grazing: Amazon region, other forests, national and state parks, urban areas and water ressources.
Expansion of the Agricultural Frontier
70´s and 80´s
expansion based on tropical R&D,
official rural credit, and
intervention prices
Source: IBGE anda ICONE
90´s and 00´s
expansion based on efficiency
gains (productivity and scale),
deregulation and stronger demand
Projections for Brazilian Cultivated Area
(1,000s of ha)
200,000
Pasture
180,000
182,553
176,270
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
46,177
Grains and Oliseeds
56,193
40,000
20,000
0
Source: ICONE,
9,165
Sugarcane
13,118