Thursday, May 19, 2016
For Private Circulation Only
MAJOR COMMODITIES
Commodity
Expiry
High
Low
Close
Change
Commodity
Expiry
High
Low
Close ($)
Change
Gold (Oz)
Jun
1283.50
1256.00
1274.40
-2.50
Silver (Oz)
Jul
17.32
16.72
17.13
-0.12
Crude Oil
Jun
48.95
47.75
48.19
-0.12
Gold
03-Jun
30083
29911
30055
6
Silver
05-Jul
41100
40576
41048
-132
Crude Oil
19-May
3277
3215
3268
60
Natural Gas
25-May
137.90
134.20
134.50
-2.90
Natural Gas
Jun
2.06
1.99
2.00
-0.05
Copper
30-Jun
311.55
306.05
311.10
-0.20
Copper
3M
4667.50
4563.50
4634.00
-6.00
Nickel
31-May
585.00
576.20
581.00
-6.40
Nickel
3M
8785.00
8580.00
8650.00
-100.00
Aluminium
31-May
104.40
102.60
104.30
1.15
Aluminium
3M
1558.00
1533.50
1555.00
12.00
Lead
31-May
115.25
113.80
114.40
-0.55
Lead
3M
1720.00
1698.00
1702.50
-16.00
Zinc
31-May
126.50
124.90
126.40
-0.15
Zinc
3M
1905.00
1870.50
1892.00
-8.00
News & Development

The Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates in June if economic data points to stronger second-quarter growth as well as
firming inflation and employment, according to minutes from the U.S. central bank's April policy meeting released on
Wednesday.

U.S. crude stocks rose unexpectedly last week even as gasoline and distillate inventories fell more than expected, data from the
Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels in the week to May 13,
compared with analysts' expectations for an decrease of 2.8 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery
hub rose by 461,000 barrels, hitting a fresh record high, the data showed. Refinery crude runs rose by 192,000 barrels per day,
EIA data showed. Refinery utilization rates rose by 1.4 percentage points. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels, compared
with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 150,000-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil,
fell by 3.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 642,000-barrel drop, the EIA data showed.
(Source: Reuters)
Commodity Daily
Gold
Technical Outlook
Gold fell more than one percent on Wednesday as the dollar hit a new
three-week high following minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's last
policy meeting that bolstered expectations that the central bank could
soon raise interest rates.
The U.S. central bank will likely raise interest rates next month if
economic data points to stronger second-quarter growth as well as
firming inflation and employment, according to minutes from the U.S.
central bank's April policy meeting.
The indications followed a Fed policymaker's comment on Tuesday he
would push for an interest rate hike in June or July, and two other Fed
officials, who predicted up to three rate increases this year.
Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which increase the
opportunity cost of holding it.
U.S. data on Tuesday showed consumer prices recorded their biggest
increase in more than three years in April. Housing starts and industrial
production rebounded strongly last month, suggesting the U.S. economy
was regaining steam, adding to the case for an early rate hike.
Gold is usually seen as a hedge against inflation.
Bullion has rallied 20 percent this year on speculation that the Fed has
slowed its expected pace of rate increases on concerns about global
economic growth and the volatility of stock markets.
The rally has prompted prominent investors, including billionaire
financier George Soros, to buy into gold through exchange-traded funds
in the first quarter.
Gold
Strategy
Jun
Sell @ R1
S2
S1
Close
R1
R2
29800
29900
30055
30055
30150
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
Outlook
We expect gold prices to trade negative on the back of uncertainty over
US interest rates.
Silver
Technical Outlook
Silver slipped 1.52 percent to $16.96 per ounce.
Outlook
Silver
Strategy
S2
S1
Close
R1
R2
Jul
Sell @ R1
40300
40700
41048
41100
41300
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
We expect silver prices to trade negative on the back of uncertainty
over US interest rates.
Page 2
Commodity Daily
Crude Oil
Technical Outlook
Oil prices retreated from 2016 highs and snapped a two-day rally on
Wednesday, hurt by a surge in the dollar after the U.S. Federal Reserve
signalled it could raise interest rates next month.
Brent and U.S. crude's West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures had
advanced closer to $50 a barrel on Wednesday after large gasoline and
distillate drawdowns were announced by the U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA).
The minutes showed the central bank was likely to raise rates in June if
economic data pointed to stronger second-quarter growth and firmer
inflation and employment.
The draws took the market's attention from a crude build of 1.3 million
barrels, which analysts said should have been bearish for crude prices.
The Reuters poll forecast a decrease of 2.8 million barrels in crude stocks
last week. Preliminary data on Tuesday from the American Petroleum
Institute, a trade group, showed a crude draw of 1.1 million barrels.
Oil prices are up about 80 percent or more from 12-year lows of around
$27 for Brent in January and about $26 for WTI in February. The rebound
has been fueled by declining U.S. crude output, a wildfire that has
restricted Canadian oil exports to the United States and outages in
Libyan and Nigerian supply.
Some analysts worry the higher prices will lead to more production and
another major oil glut, similar to the kind that forced prices down from
highs above $100 a barrel in mid-2014.
Crude Oil
Strategy
S2
S1
Close
R1
R2
May
Sell @ R1
3170
3200
3268
3270
3300
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
Outlook
We expect crude oil prices to trade negative on the back of profit
booking after sharp up- move in prices.
Natural Gas
Technical Outlook
U.S. natural gas futures on Wednesday fell to a three-week low on
forecasts for slightly weaker demand from the power sector, giving
back all of Tuesday's gains.
In early estimates, analysts said utilities likely added about 78 billion
cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended May 13. That
compares with builds of 56 bcf last week, 98 bcf in the same week a
year ago and a five-year average of 91 bcf.
Analysts said prices would have to remain low in 2016 to pressure
producers to cut output and encourage power generators to keep
burning gas instead of coal to prevent storage from reaching peak
capacity at the end of October after utilities left record amounts of fuel
in inventory following a warm winter.
Outlook
We expect Natural gas prices to trade negative on the back of lower
demand.
Page 3
Nat Gas
Strategy
S2
S1
Close
R1
R2
May
Sell @ R1
131
133
134.5
135
137
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
\
Commodity Daily
Base Metals
Technical Outlook
Copper slid to its lowest in three months on Wednesday, pressured
by the dollar which rose on renewed expectations of further U.S.
interest rate hikes.
Other industrial metals also joined the downdraft as copper
reversed lower after three days of gains.
The dollar climbed to a three-week peak against a basket of
currencies, which makes paying for dollar-denominated metals
with other currencies more expensive, after comments from
Federal Reserve officials left open the potential for several rate
increases this year.
The Fed comments came as U.S. consumer prices recorded their
biggest increase in more than three years in April, pointing to a
steady inflation build-up that could give policymakers cause to
raise interest rates later this year.
Earlier, metals had found support after China's home prices posted
their fastest growth in two years in April.
China's housing sector is a major user of copper for power links and
also in appliances such as refrigerators.
May/Jun*
Strategy
S2
S1
Close
R1
R2
Copper*
Sideways
307
309
311.1
313
315
Nickel
Sideways
570
575
581.0
585
590
Alum
Sideways
102.5
103.5
104.3
105
106
Lead
Sideways
113
114
114.4
115
116
Zinc
Sideways
125
126
126.4
127
128
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
Outlook
We expect base metal prices to trade mostly sideways on the back
of short covering after slump in prices.
LME Inventories
Current Stock
Change
% Change
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Aluminium
Nickel
156850
180450
388475
2571125
404178
100
4800
-1000
-4600
-1680
0.06%
2.73%
-0.26%
-0.18%
-0.41%
Page 4
Commodity Daily
DATE
TIME (IST)
COUNTRY
ECONOMIC DATA
CONSENSUS
PREVIOUS
IMPACT
Thu, May 19
2:00pm
UK
Retail Sales m/m
0.70%
-1.30%
High
6:00pm
US
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
3.2
-1.6
High
6:00pm
US
Unemployment Claims
276K
294K
High
Ashish Shah
For Further Assistance Contact: - 022-40934000
Tejas Nikhar
Mohit Agarwal
AVP
ashish.shah@sushilfinance.com
Sr. Research Analyst
tejas.nikhar@sushilfinance.com
Research Analyst
mohit.agarwal@sushilfinance.com
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This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its
accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report cannot be construed as a request to engage in any
transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts can be substantial, and therefore investors
should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and
for their results.
Additional information with respect to any commodities referred to herein will be available on request. Sushil Global Commodities Pvt. Ltd. and its
connected companies, and their respective Directors, Officers and employees, may, from time to time, have a long or short position in the commodities
mentioned and may sell or buy such commodities. Sushil Global may act upon or make use of information contained herein prior to the publication
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shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof and the investors are requested to use the information contained herein
at their own risk.
Sushil Global Commodities Private Limited
Member: NCDEX, FMC Regn.No. 00304 | MCX, FMC Regn.No. 12240
Genius, 4th Road, Khar (W), Mumbai – 400 052.
Tel.: 022-6698 0636 Fax: 022-6698 0606 | E-mail: commodities@sushilfinance.com | www.sushilfinance.com
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