Missed Opportunity for a Golden
Handshake? Why Did So Many Fishers
Stay After the Introduction of ITQs?
Katell Hamon, Stewart Frusher,
Rich Little, Olivier Thebaud
Outline –Tas rock lobster fishery – Model – Results – Discussion – Conclusion
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
The Tasmanian rock lobster fishery
Modelling the fleet
Modelled vs real response
Why the difference?
Conclusion
Outline –Tas rock lobster fishery – Model – Results – Discussion – Conclusion
The Tasmanian rock lobster
fishery
Coastal fishery targeting single species Jasus edwardsii
215 vessels fishing with baited traps
AUD $60 million return per year
75% landings exported
ITQs introduced in 1998
 Cap on quota ownership (<2%)
 Restrictive TAC
 Initial allocation based on trap ownership
Outline –Tas rock lobster fishery – Model – Results – Discussion – Conclusion
Heterogeneity of the fishery
Spatial
- Size
- Colour
- Fishers
winter
summer
Seasonal
- Price
- Catch rates
summer
winter
Outline –Tas rock lobster fishery – Model – Results – Discussion – Conclusion
Expected vs Observed impacts of ITQ
Sustainability of the resource
Rationalisation of the fishing fleet
if the TAC is set at a sustainable level
transferability  more efficient fishers
buy out least efficient fishers
 the stock should rebuild
Strategies maximizing return
Concentration of quota ownership
fishers develop fishing strategies
maximizing the return on individual
catch allocation
socially not desirable
5
Outline –Tas rock lobster fishery – Model – Results – Discussion – Conclusion
Modelling the fleet
Inputs
- catch & effort data
- biological parameters
- tagging data
- economic data
- quota info
- vessel descriptors
Management scenarios
- TAC
- Aggregation limits
-…
Lobster
Price
Fleet  individual based
- quota allocation
- effort distribution
(spatial & seasonnal)
Outputs
Quota Market
- economic statistics
- catch
- stock state
Outline –Tas rock lobster fishery – Model – Results – Discussion – Conclusion
Begining of year
Fishing plan
Expected marginal profit $/kg
ˆ1,2
ˆ2,2
ˆ3,2
ˆ4,2
ˆ1,3
ˆ2,3
ˆ3,3
ˆ4,3
ˆ1,4
ˆ2,4
ˆ3,4
ˆ4,4
Probability to
be chosen
 met,month
Fish
Allocate
quota to
months
Trade
quota
el
Selection
métier/month
ve
ss
ˆ1,1
ˆ2,1
ˆ3,1
ˆ4,1
metiers
Next month
Metier's choice
months
metiers
Next year
Compute
fishing
plan
months
Outline –Tas rock lobster fishery – Model – Results – Discussion – Conclusion
Begining of year
Quota allocation
ve
ss
months
metiers
Next year
Compute
fishing
plan
el
Metier's choice
Next month
Total max catch:14
Allocate
Quota owned : 5
quota to
months
Fish
Trade
quota
 4  3   2   6   5  1
Outline –Tas rock lobster fishery – Model – Results – Discussion – Conclusion
Begining of year
Next year
Compute
fishing
plan
Quota trading
ID profitable
months
 4  3   2   6   5  1
• Quota price Q
Next month
Trade
quota
Compare Demand/
Supply
Profitable
Demand/
Supply
• Demand = Fill profitable
months
• Supply = quota in non
profitable months
Demand Supply
Supply>Demand
Allocate
quota 
to decrease Q
Demand>Supply
months
 Increase Q
Fish
Q Q
Outline –Tas rock lobster fishery – Model – Results – Discussion – Conclusion
Begining of year
Next year
Fishing
Compute
fishing
plan
Next month
Fish
Allocate
quota to
months
Trade
quota
• Allocate effort to
areas for the month
based on métier
• Simultaneous catch
of quota allocated to
the month
Outline –Tas rock lobster fishery – Model – Results – Discussion – Conclusion
Modelled vs real response
• Spatial distribution of
catch:
– predictions close to reality
– anomalies in the western
areas
Outline –Tas rock lobster fishery – Model – Results – Discussion – Conclusion
Modelled vs real response
• Spatial distribution of
catch:
– predictions close to reality
– anomalies in the western
areas
• Vessel exit
– Stronger decrease
predicted than observed
Outline –Tas rock lobster fishery – Model – Results – Discussion – Conclusion
Why the difference?
• Interviews with members of the industry
• Overestimation of fishing opportunities
in some regions with high catch rates
– Bad weather
• Market is less dynamic in reality
• temporary transfers only  very flexible
• only profit driven  higher demand
• Perfect knowledge vs 1st hand information
Outline –Tas rock lobster fishery – Model – Results – Discussion – Conclusion
Summary and Conclusion
• Fishery reacted as predicted in trend but not
in intensity
• More inertia in the system than profit
maximisation
• Non-economic factors influence decisions
– Personal factors
– Weather constraints
• Target “optimal” rather than “maximum” profit
Thank you!