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energy and materials research group
Deluding Ourselves to Disaster:
Why We Fail to Act on the Climate Threat
Mark Jaccard
School of Resource and Environmental Management
Simon Fraser University
February, 2012
Feb/2012
Jaccard-Simon Fraser University
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energy and materials research group
Outline
The climate change threat and our motives for action
The details – emissions, concentrations, temperature, impacts
Political promises and their implications for energy & emissions
Reasons for the multi-decade failure to act, with focus on delusions
Personal and collective strategies for effective climate action
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Today
Tipping point
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energy and materials research group
Values and acting on the climate
threat
Self-interest – each of us is inside the test tube of a global experiment that
scientists say will have catastrophic impacts on us and our offspring.
Responsibility for the biosphere – climate change to cause mass
extinctions.
Responsibility for other humans – rich countries developed by burning
fossil fuels, yet initial impacts will be concentrated in poorer countries.
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Responsibility by country in
cumulative carbon emissions
Patz JA, Gibbs HK, Foley JA, Rogers JV, Smith KR, 2007, Climate change
and global health: Quantifying a growing ethical crisis,
EcoHealth 4(4): 397–405, 2007.
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Climate-related mortality per
million people by 2000
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Prescription vs prediction
While different values lead to different “prescriptions” for how
humans ought to act, what might we realistically hope for, given
human tendency to:
• hold beliefs that favor one’s interests (self-interest bias),
• overlook inconvenient logical connections (cognitive dissonance),
• think uncritically (susceptibility to misinformation), and
• have institutions incapable of long-term collective pursuits.
Need strategies that motivate successful national and global action,
in spite of these characteristics of individuals and society – exercise
in “prediction,” not wishful thinking.
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Details: emissions, concentrations,
temperatures, impacts to 2100 +
energy and materials research group
Source of confusion
CO2 e = CO2 + methane + nitrous oxide + others
Level
CO2 (ppm)
CO2 e (ppm)
Likely tempΔ
Pre-1750
280
?
0C
2010 level
390
460
2.2 C (1.2 in 2010)
critical level
350
450
2C
Stern target
current
path
450
≈700
550
≈800
->
4 –36C?
C
Realistically?
550
650
-> 3 C + ?
350.org
Scientists contemplate 4C
beyond 2100
www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees
Sources: IPCC, Energy Modeling
Forum, Anderson & Bows, 2009
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Past sea level vs temperature
Long-term effect
Feb/2012
Source: Archer
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Political promises & implications
Political leaders promise at Copenhagen in 2009 not to allow
temperature increase to exceed 2°C.
Political leaders of most rich countries promise to reduce emissions
80% by 2050. Canada (Harper) promises 65%.
But even to achieve 550 ppm CO2e, global emissions must fall at least
50% by 2050 (if rich fall 80%, poor must fall 30%).
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Emissions trajectory for 550 CO2e
energy and materials research group
Falling global emissions before 2020
550 CO2e target needs 50%
global drop by 2050
Source: Bowan & Ranger, 2009
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Current world energy-CO2 path
energy and materials research group
500
Renewable
CO2-free
=15%
Primary Energy (EJ)
400
Commercial
aviation
300
200
100
Microchip
Nuclear
energy
Television
Steam
engine
Electric
motor
Gasoline
engine
Next 50
years?
Nuclear
Gas
CO2
emitting
= 85%
Oil
Vacuum
tube
Coal
0
1850
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Biomass
1900
1950
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2000
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CO2–free energy share to
achieve 550 CO2e
50% reduction from
growing system requires
80% CO2-free globally
Only possible if all energy
investment is CO2-free
from today
15% in 2010
Source: Nakicenovic
Feb/2012
50% in 2030
80% in 2050
CO2-free energy share = biomass + other
renewables + nuclear + fossil fuels with CCS
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CO2-free share by sector to
achieve 550 ppm CO2e
Electricity generation - 90% CO2-free by 2050
(renewables, fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, nuclear).
Buildings - 85% CO2-free by 2050
(heat pumps, passive solar, biofuels, photovoltaics, solar hot water)
Vehicles - 80% CO2-free by 2050
(electric, biofuel, hydrogen)
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Truth-testing our politicians:
the case of Canada
Canadian government aggressively promotes tar sands expansion,
including Keystone and Gateway pipelines.
Is the government’s action consistent with its 2050 promise?
Independent research consistently says no.
E.g. MIT researchers model Canada’s 2050 target and the global path
to 550 CO2e – assess implications for tar sands over 40 years.
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energy and materials research group
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Achieving 550 ppm CO2e plus
Harper’s promise: MIT study
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energy and materials research group
Tar sands under 50% global
CO2e reduction to 2050
2010-2050, higher cost / higher emission oil unprofitable under
reduced oil demand and CO2e reduction policies
(regulations or charge of $100 /tCO2 by 2020, $200 by 2035).
Investments today in tar sands production and pipelines are
inconsistent with Harper’s promise to reduce emissions 65% by
2050 and with global achievement of 550 ppm CO2e.
The main reason for the demise of the oil sands industry with global
CO2 policy is that the demand for oil worldwide drops
substantially. … it can be met with conventional oil resources that
entail less CO2 emissions in the production process.”
- Chan et al., MIT, 2010
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energy and materials research group
Summary: obvious conclusions
from independent studies
World not on the path to 450 CO2e (=350 CO2).
World not on the path to 550 CO2e.
Canada not on a path to 65% reduction by 2050 (tar sands +
pipeline investments = government not telling truth).
Canada / world locking on to path to 800 CO2e by 2100.
This path has catastrophic damages from extreme weather,
disease, ecosystem destruction, sea level rise and ocean
acidification – to be experienced by people who are alive today.
You, and especially your children.
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energy and materials research group
Understanding the failure to act
We’ve had past “successes” addressing environmental threats
–
acid emissions, smog creating emissions, ozone-depleting
emissions, lead emissions, etc.
Yet climate policy failure now approaching three decades
Do climate-altering emissions present a more difficult problem?
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Specific challenges of climate issue
Global public good - individual initiatives of little value – need compliance
enforcement mechanism
Delayed effects – must act now to prevent future impacts, but human
decision-making often myopic (individual, market, politics).
Who pays - perceptions of equity aligned with self-interest (polluter pays
vs equal payment per capita or GDP vs historical responsibility)
Uncertainty – complex earth-atmosphere system causes uncertainties,
even though catastrophic outcome is virtually certain.
High starting costs – total transformation costs small, but high initial costs
and risks to begin shift to CO2-free (renewables, CCS, nuclear)
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Critical role of US
Bad luck (given global importance of US)
–
–
–
Election of George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 (gave time for fossil
fuel and anti-government lobbies to organize and campaign)
Delay allows opponents time to exploit flaws in human thinking in
characterizing the climate risk and the costs of action
Issue falls victim to increasingly polarized US political system
Survey question: “Do humans affect the climate by burning fossil
fuels?”
1997 Yes - 52% of Democrats and 48% of Republicans
2008 Yes - 76% of Democrats and 42% of Republicans
2012 Today?
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Self-serving bias and efforts to
discredit climate science & policy
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary
depends on his not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair
Exploiting anti-science bias – easier to convince people to disbelieve
science when its conclusions conflict with their self-interest.
Exploiting anti-establishment bias – easier to convince people to
disbelieve science by portraying IPCC as the establishment,
which, conspiracy-like, forces all climate scientists to conform.
Exploiting anti-government bias – easier to convince people to resist
climate policy if portrayed as excessive regulation, higher taxes,
and “social engineering.”
Greenwashing campaigns – creating alternative images to the reality
of GHG pollution – “clean coal,” “clean natural gas,” “ethical oil”
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energy and materials research group
Response: being realistic about
humans
If we don’t take these characteristics into account, we will fail to motivate
effective individual and political action on climate change.
Ironically, there are delusions associated both with those who don’t want
to act on climate and those who do.
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Response: communicating science
and risk
energy and materials research group
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energy and materials research group
Response: confronting the “what
about the Chinese” argument
Question for high school students. Figure out how the international
community achieves collective action on a public good when:
•
Some countries are much richer than others
•
The rich countries have much higher cumulative emissions
•
Poor countries want rich to pay all their costs
•
The rich countries can use subsidies and trade threats to
get global compliance
Always the same answer.
•
Rich countries go first with cutting their emissions thus
lowering the costs of CO2-free technologies and fuels
•
Soon they provide subsidies and apply trade measures (if
necessary) to ensure universal compliance with global effort
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energy and materials research group
Response: confronting the “our
emissions are small” argument
Canada is responsible for 2% of global CO2 emissions.
In World War II, Canada was responsible for 2% of the Allied effort
that defeated Germany and Japan.
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energy and materials research group
Response: confronting the “we need
the economic growth & jobs” argument
Question for elementary school students. What happens when your
job creation strategy destroys the planet?
Low carbon growth will be
more energy-secure, cleaner,
safer, quieter and more biodiverse. Low-carbon growth
is the future growth story.
High-carbon growth, on the
other hand, will destroy itself.
Economic growth has been used
often to justify harm.
– Nicholas Stern
Feb/2012
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energy and materials research group
Response: confronting the selfinterest bias of fossil fuel regions
No use
of fossil
fuels
extremely
difficult
(impossible?)
burning
fossil
fuels
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difficult
fossil
fuels with
CCS
CCS = carbon capture & storage
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energy and materials research group
Response: confronting the “we
don’t need climate policy” argument
Corporate social responsibility as solution – but businesses ultimately
compete on the basis of bottom-line and fossil fuels are cheap
Green consumerism as solution – but virtually all human expenditures
of income involve energy use at some stage
Energy efficiency is cheap as solution – but usually it is more expensive
and inconvenient than simply burning fossil fuels
Peak oil and high energy prices as solution – but the earth’s crust has a
scary plentitude of fossil fuels and humans keep innovating to find
and extract more
Carbon neutrality as solution – but most carbon offsets pay people for
reductions they would have made and thus don’t divert from our
trajectory of rising emissions – “false sense of progress”
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energy and materials research group
A scary plentitude of fossil fuels:
Global Energy Assessment
Historical
production
through
2009
Production
2009
Reserves
Resources
Additional
occurrences
Conventional oil
Unconventional oil
[EJ]
6 647
607
[EJ]
166.7
23.1
[EJ]
4 900 – 7 610
3 750 – 5 600
[EJ]
4 170 – 6 150
11 280 – 14 800
[EJ]
n.a.
> 40 000
Conventional gas
Unconventional gas
3 467
158
112.7
12.0
5 000 – 7 100
20 100 – 67 100
7 200 – 8 900
40 200 – 121 900
n.a.
> 1 000 000
Coal
7 269
152.7
17 300 – 21 000
291 000 – 435 000
n.a.
Conventional uraniumb
Unconventional
uranium
1 333
25.6
2 339
7 420
n.a.
4 100
2 600 000
n.a.
1
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Energy consumption and new
devices (US data)
energy and materials research group
Electricity consumption per household (kWh)
4000
3000
Computer
Imaging
Telephone
2000
15 energy
using devices
Air conditioning
and refrigeration
Television
1000
Personal care
Thermal
Labour saving
0
1976
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45 energy
using devices
Steve Groves, SFU – 2009
Audio
1981
1986
1991
1996
Year
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2006
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energy and materials research group
Response: confronting the “climate
policy can’t work” argument
Information and subsidies do not work – 20 years of evidence.
Economists insist on emissions pricing for economic efficiency (carbon
tax and/or cap-and-trade), but this is difficult politically.
Yet successful environmental policies have been mostly regulations
that require phase-out of undesired technologies and fuels (acid
rain, smog, lead, ozone-depleting emissions, etc.).
Design regulations (and pricing) to be efficient – e.g., BC’s carbon tax
and BC’s zero-emission electricity policy.
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energy and materials research group
Response: if government won’t act
(and perhaps is lying)
What is your moral duty as a citizen if independent evidence consistently
shows your government is not telling the truth and that the
implications are disastrous?
Public relations / social networking campaigns / boycotts – focus on
popular culture, Hollywood, etc.
Legal action – 100 US coal plants delayed or postponed in past 5 years.
Non-violent civil actions (350.org, Greenpeace, VTACC)
•
•
•
•
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Sit-ins at government chambers and offices
Pickets at elected officials’ constituency offices
Blockades of fossil fuel facilities – coal plants, oil pipelines, oil sands
Blockades of downtown parking lots to hinder high-emission vehicles
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energy and materials research group
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Response: civil action if necessary –
350.org, Washington, 2011
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