UNCHANGING VALUES IN A CHANGING WORLD:
OVERPOPULATING THE ‘UNEXPANDABLE’ GLOBAL SPACE
Ezegwu, Ndubuisi Chidi Department of Political Science, University of Ibadan, Nigeria +2348034629949 joemetals@yahoo.com , chibez@gmail.com
UCL / Leverhulme Trust
VALUES AND POPULATION GROWTH
BACKGROUND
Each new child born on earth brings with him/her additional demand and pressure on the earth’s constant
space, with or without corresponding potential contribution to improve the already burdened earth. At the
beginning of the present century, the average births per woman were 1.5 for developed countries and 2.8
for Asian and Latin American/Caribbean countries, for African countries, it was 5.3.1 Of the six billion
people in the world at that time, 4.9 billion or 81.67% live in the developing nations2 . The growth in
population of the least developed countries has been projected, from 5.6 billion in 2009 to 8.1 billion in
2050, while the more developed countries are projected to grow from 1.2 billion to just 1.3 billion. The
world’s human population projections indicate that it will peak at 9.22 billion in 2075. The projections also
indicate that Europe will hit its low point in growth in 2050 while Africa will not until 80 years later. From
2000 to 2010, Europe’s share of world population was cut in half, 12.0 to 5.9 per cent, while Africa's
almost doubles, from 13.1 to 24.9 per cent3. With the earth’s limited space remaining constant, it is
obvious that global population is heading towards the level where the resources to sustain life would
become severely scarce. What we consider as scarcity and conflicts over food, water and other necessities
in some parts of the world today are just mere signposts to what will soon unfold, if population growth is
not effectively checked. This poster x-rays the impacts of values on population explosion in Nigeria.
NIGERIA’S POPULATION MATRIX
External Environment
Enduring Social Values
Early marriage
and polygamy
Poverty
Preference for
large family size
•Poverty and hunger
•Excessive pressure on natural
resources
•Inter ethnic and community
conflicts
•Slum, and diseases
•Urban and rural despair
Illiteracy
Underpinning
Philosophy
Change that
Displaced the
Initial
Philosophy
Why Are these Values Unchanging?
Changes have not affected their underlying philosophies;
Preference
for large
household
size
Supports
agricultural
and other
economic
activities
Technology ,
urbanization and
industrialization
 They adjust and adapt to social dynamics rather than
changing;
Early
marriage
To produce
replacement
offspring; fear
of untimely
death; religious
beliefs &
sexual
gratification
Improvement in
medical
technology and
reduction in
death rate;
improved family
planning system
 Some of them constitute the traditional social welfare
system – for example extended family members help their
poor ones to train their children and thus making poverty
reduction almost insignificant in the whole effort to contain
population explosion; and
Particular
child
preference
Patriarchal
system of
family,
inheritance and
gender roles
Gender resocialization;
socio-economic
changes; gender
mainstreaming
Polygamy
Religious
beliefs and
sexual drives
Circularization;
feminism
movements and
re-socialization
Socio-economic Factors
•Overpopulation of global space
•High migration rate
•Export of criminality
•Excessive pressure on natural
resource
POPULATION
EXPLOSION
Male child
preference
Value
 Studies and interventions relevant to population growth
rarely target the social values;
 Religious beliefs oppose some conventional beliefs
Backbone of male child preference
Patriarchal structure of society
System of inheritance
Pressure from relatives
Preference for Large Household
It is believed that God gives children and will
always give; He provides for their upkeep. Large
families are considered as a blessing from God.
Marriages can be easily dissolved due to lack of
child bearing. For instance, the meaning of native
names such as ‘Oghenevwaire’ which literarily
means God brought them or ‘Emoefe’ meaning
children are wealth ; ‘Emonefe’- children exceed
wealth; clearly attests to the value which most
Nigerians accord children1.
Increased fertility/birth
rate & decreased death
rate
Internal Environment
BRIEF DEMOGRAPHY OF NIGERIA
The Federal Republic of Nigeria occupies an area of 923,768 square kilometers. It is situated between 30
and 140 East Longitude and 40 and 140 North Latitude. The longest distance from East to West is about
767 kilometers, and from North to South 1,605 kilometers4. With over 250 socio-linguistic groups and
an estimated population of 150 million, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, and the 9th most
populous country in the world. The United Nations 2009 estimate of the country’s populations stood at
154,729,000, distributed as 51.7% rural and 48.3% urban.
The country has been
Nigeria’s Population Prospect
undergoing explosive
population growth and
has one of the highest
growth and fertility
rates in the world.
Approximately one out
of every four Africans
is a Nigerian. The
population growth rate
(avg. annual %) 20052010 was 2.35. The
population density was
also estimated to be
167.5 people per
6
7 square kilometer.
Projected figures (in 1000)
Actual Census Figures
The Nigerian population has steadily grown from about 56 million in 1960 to 127 million in 2001, and 140
million in 2006. This represents a growth rate of 126.79% and 60.63% for the first two periods.8 With the
44% of the population being 15 years and below, and many teenagers desiring to have more than four
children, the population explosion has just begun. It is projected to rise to 204 million in the year 2025. By
UN estimates, Nigeria will be one of the countries responsible for most of the world's total population
increase by 2050.
SOCIAL VALUES
Values structure behaviour. They embody already made explanations and justifications for individual and
groups’ actions9.
The number of children people desire depends on personal attitudes and preferences that are determined
by social beliefs, values and institutions10.
The socio-cultural norms and values of a society affect the attitude of the people towards family formation
and family size preference11.
In a study conducted by Comfort Chukuezi12 with 406 women, the total of 56.9% had minimum of four
children, of which only 5.17% had maximum secondary education and only 6.9% were unemployed. In
another study by G. James and U.C. Isiugo-Abanihe 13 with 1,175 adolescents aged 12-19 years in NorthWestern Nigeria, findings indicate that about 45% of the adolescents desired large family size of six
children or more. Their findings also indicate that the likelihood of large family size preference was
significantly higher among adolescents whose parents had no formal education, married as teenagers, had
six children or more, and practiced polygamy13.
TEMPLATE DES IGN © 2007
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Nigeria’s Population Distribution by Size, Class of Household and Sex (2006)7
Early Marriage
Polygamy and early marriage are very strong
in virtually every part of Nigeria. The 2003
Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey
(NDHS) shows that early marriage is
prevalent across Nigeria. Nationwide, 19% of
girls were married by age 15, and 43% by age
18 and the proportions of married teenagers
are much higher in the northern regions being
highest in the North West and North East
regions where the proportions of married
teenage girls (15-19) are 73% and 59%
respectively14. High teenage fertility is a
major contributory factor to persistently high
total fertility rate and Nigeria’s rapid
population growth, and the number of births
to teenagers (mostly between 15 and 19 years
in North Eastern and the North Western
Nigeria) increased by 50% in the period 19802003. The Nigerian fertility rates were 615 and
5.716 children per woman in 2007 and 2008
respectively.
IMPLICATIONS






Overpopulation of the limited earth’s space
Scarcity of resources that sustain life on earth
Poverty
Migration and its related problems
Internal conflicts arising from struggle for scarce resources
Export of criminality (including human, arms and drug trafficking; advance
fee fraud, transnational criminal networking, and illegal migration )
CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
Conclusions
Population explosion in Nigeria and other
developing societies is fuelled by societal values
Polygamy, early marriage, and male child
preference, among others are key social values that
increase the household size, and the overall national
and global population.
Global efforts towards population control have not
adequately targeted these values.
Social transformations such as urbanization, social
atomization, technological revolution and other
developments have changed community lives and
adjusted these values without displacing them.
Research works and programmatic interventions
have under-emphasized the relevance of values to
population growth
Recommendations
•Reengineer distinct and proxy beliefs that underlie the
desire for large household size
•Community dialogue and partnership with traditional
and community gatekeepers on population control at the
grassroots
•Paradigm shift in social and economic policy
approaches in order to ensure gender equity at the
household level
•Religious leaders should be re-socialized to lead the
campaign against polygamy and early marriage
•Intervention and research works should focus on the
relationship between values and population growth
•Further research works are needed on relationship
between values, beliefs and population growth
There is need to reinvent grassroots cultures and traditions to key into
the global population management agenda. This requires multistakeholders’ engagement at the grassroots to re-evaluate, re-socialize
and re-traditionalize community culture - community here also includes
religious, economic and educational communities.
REFERENCES
1.Akpotu, N. E. (2008) Education as Correlate of Fertility Rate among Families in Southern Nigeria.Kamla-Raj J. Hum. Ecol., 23(1): 65-70.
2.Ashford, 2001 in Akpotu ibid
3.Chamie, J. (2004) World Population to 2300. New York: United Nations. T/ESA/SER.A/236
4.See www.nigerianstat.gov.ng
5.http://data.un.org/CountryProfile.aspx?crName=NIGERIA
6.UN Population Division (2007) World Population prospects (2006 Revision) Volume II: Sex and Age Distribution of the World Population. New York: United Nations.
7.Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (2009) National Abstract Statistics. Abuja: NBS
8.Population Reference Bureau: (PRB) (2001) World Population Data Sheet, PRB, Washington, DC.
9.Dudley, Billy J. (1982) An Introduction to Nigerian Government and Politics. London and Basingstoke: Macmillan. p20
10.Bauer, Peter T. (1981) Equality: the Third World and Economic Delusion. Havard: Harvard University Press. p 58
11.Hussain, S., Sharif, M., Safdar, S., Mubeen, C. and Rasheed, S (2007) Factors Affecting the Family Size and Sex Preference among Christian Families in Urban Areas of Faisalabad (Pakistan).
Journal of Agriculture & Social Sciences. 1813–2235/2007/03–1–25–27
12.Chukuezi, Comfort O. (2010) "Women Participation in Household Labour in Nigeria" In European Journal of Social Sciences – Volume 13, Number 2. p297 - 299
13.James, G and Isiugo-Abanihe, U. C (2010) Adolescents’ Reproductive Motivations and Family Size Preferences in North-Western Nigeria. Asian Journal of Medical Sciences 2(5): 218-226.
14.See Makinwa – Adebusoye, P (2006) Hidden A Profile of Married Adolescents in Northern Nigeria. Lagos: Action Health Inc.
15.UNICEF Information Sheet, July 2007: Http://Www.Unicef.Org/Wcaro/Wcaro_Nigeria_Factsheets_Birthregistration.Pdf
16.See Good Neighbours: UNFPA Trains Nigerian Men and Women to Bring Better Reproductive Health to their Communities” June 2008: http://www.unfpa.org/public/global/pid/1050
Appreciation: The author appreciates supports from the University College London and Leverhulme Trust.