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ISBN 0 11 621725 1
ISSN 0307-4463
Autumn 2004
NO 117
Sue 3rd Proof - PT 105 - job 437 - (contents) - ........... 04.06.03
Population Trends
In this issue
Page
In Brief
2
Demographic indicators
8
Perpetual postponers? Women's, men's and couple's fertility intentions and subsequent
fertility behaviour
Presents analyses of the gender differences in fertility intentions and the correspondence between
fertility intentions and subsequent behaviour, focussing particularly on women who are childless
in their thirties
Ann Berrington
9
Characteristics of sole registered births and the mothers who register them
This article looks at trends in sole registrations and analyses the lifetime childbearing of women
who experience a sole registration
Steve Smallwood
20
Estimates of true birth order for Scotland, 1945–1999
Presentation of results, discussion of their construction, analyses based on the results and
comparisons with England and Wales data
Jessica Chamberlain and Steve Smallwood
27
Tables
List of tables
Tables 1.1 – 9.3
43
44
Notes to tables
72
Reports:
Divorces in England and Wales during 2003
Internal migration estimates for local and unitary authorities in England and Wales, health
authorities in England and former health authorities in Wales, 2003
73
77
London: TSO
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
in brief
Mid–2003
population estimates
Population estimates for mid-2003, and revised
estimates for mid-2001 and mid-2002, for
England and Wales and the United Kingdom,
together with regional and local authority
estimates, were published on 9 September
2004. These estimates incorporated the findings
of the local authority population studies, which
were announced on 8 July 2004. They allow for
overlap between the local authority studies and
the longitudinal study based adjustment made
on 26 September 2003. The reports of these
studies can be found on the National Statistics
website at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/
downloads/theme_population
The revised estimates for mid-2001 and
mid-2002 also incorporate some corrections
and there are implications for unattributable
population change. The mid-2002 population
estimates included an adjustment in respect
of the unexplained intercensal difference
accumulated in population estimates; this was
the adjustment for unattributable population
change. Following the local authority
population studies, the scale of the unexplained
difference has reduced and the need for this
adjustment has been reviewed. It is no longer
possible to conclude that population estimates
would be improved by making such an
adjustment. Consequently, neither mid-2003 nor
revised mid-2002 population estimates include
any allowance for unattributable population
change. The Office for National Statistics
(ONS) will continue research to improve the
quality of population estimates, particularly
research into (i) allocating migration to
local areas, and (ii) improving estimates of
international migration (taking forward the
recommendations of the National Statistics
Quality Review on International Migration).
National Statistics
2
The slight delay to the publication of the
population estimates for England and Wales
(publication was originally planned for late
August) was due to the need to implement the
outcomes of the local authority population
studies. Population estimates for Scotland
and Northern Ireland are not affected. Due
to the revisions to the mid-2001 population
estimates the publication of revised historical
population estimates, mid-1992 to mid-2000,
will be delayed. These will now be published
on 7 October 2004. The Government Actuaryʼs
Department (GAD) will publish mid-2003
based national population projections for
the UK on 30 September 2004. Mid-2003
based subnational population projections for
England will be published by ONS on 16
November 2004. These will be consistent with
GADʼs national projections for England. The
publication dates for these and other population
products can be found on the National Statistics
website in ‘Updatesʼ, the National Statistics
release calendar.
Publication of the population estimates on
9 September marked the conclusion of
a series of studies designed to improve
population estimates in the areas that proved
hardest to count in the 2001 Census in
England and Wales. Full results of these
studies were also published on 9 September
on the National Statistics website. This work
does not affect population estimates for
either Scotland or Northern Ireland, where
population estimates have not been revised.
Although this report marks the end of the
retrospective local authority studies in England
and Wales, ONS, the Scottish Executive and
the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research
Agency intend to continue to work with Local
Authorities over the coming years concentrating
on how they can produce the best possible
population statistics in the future. Further
information on population estimates can be
found on the National Statistics website:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/popest
The implications of revisions to mid-year
population estimates for the population
statistics included in the reference tables
The mid-2001 to mid-2003 population estimates
published on 9 September 2004 were not
available in time for inclusion in the population
reference tables of this volume of Population
Trends. Thus the population estimates included
in Tables 1.1 to 1.6 inclusive in this volume
are those previously available and which were
included in the previous edition, No. 116. These
are the provisional mid-2001 and mid-2002
population estimates for Manchester and a
minor revision to the mid-2002 population
estimate for England in respect of the armed
forces. As these estimates are provisional
they carry orange background shading. The
orange shading is used to alert users to the fact
that figures are, or may be, subject to further
revision. Thus the revised population estimates
for mid-1992 to mid-2000 also carry orange
shading. At the national level (England and
Wales together and separately), the estimates
for mid-1992 to mid-2000 are those published
on 23 October 2003; they are based on the
revision published on 26 September 2003
but do not reflect the Manchester revision in
November 2003. The mid-year estimates for
1992 to 2000 for the regions of England (shown
in Table 1.3) were revised to be consistent with
the mid-2001 population estimates published
in October 2002; they have not yet been
revised on the basis of the population estimates
published on 9 September 2004. The revisions
to the historic series mid-1992 to mid-2000 are
planned for October 2004.
With the exception of the marital status
estimates for England and Wales in Table
1.5, the historic series for 1982–1991 are not
subject to further change and therefore carry no
background shading.
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Where population estimates have been used as
denominators to create rates in the reference
tables included in this volume, the mid-year
estimates used for 2001 and 2002 are, in most
cases, those published on 26 September 2003.
This ensures consistency at the national level
between rates shown in this volume and rates
published elsewhere. There is an exception,
however, as rates for the North West region
take account of the provisional estimates for
Manchester published on 4 November 2003.
Death rates for 2003 and 2004 are based on
the revised mid-2002 population estimates
published on 27 January 2004, while birth
rates are based on the 2002 based population
projections for 2003 and 2004. The footnotes
for each table clarify which population
estimates have been used to calculate rates.
All rates from 1992 to 2000 are based on the
estimates published on 23 October 2003. As
all the rates from 1992 are subject to further
revision, they carry orange background shading.
Some figures in two reference tables carry a
grey shading. In the case of the marriage and
divorce rates for Scotland in Table 2.1, this is
to indicate that they are based on the original
marital status estimates that take no account
of the results of the 2001 Census. Once the
General Register Office for Scotland has
published revised marital status estimates for
1992 to 2000, the rates will be revised. The
grey shading on the subnational population
projections in Table 1.3 is to alert users to the
fact that they are based on the original mid1996 population estimates and are therefore not
directly comparable with the latest estimates
shown in the same tables.
2001 Census
shows 90 per
cent live in ‘urban’
areas
Nearly nine in ten people in England and Wales
live in cities, towns and other urbanised areas,
according to a report on census data from ONS
published on 17 June 2004.
The new report Key Statistics for Urban Areas
in England and Wales looks at ‘built-up areasʼ
or urban settlements. This adds to earlier
Census reports that have been framed mainly
for Local Authority areas. The new analysis
gives a comparative picture for all the forms
of urban areas that we live in, encompassing
cities, towns and smaller settlements. It is the
last in the series of Key Statistics from the 2001
Census and follows comparable reports from
the 1981 and 1991 Censuses. Results for urban
areas meet a widespread interest in information
about towns and cities, and for comparisons
between urban populations and with those
living outside towns. The Key Statistics series
includes results from all topics covered by the
Census, and is designed for quick reference and
comparison, but also to provide information for
studies in greater depth.
The report provides details for all urban areas
with a population larger than 1,500 residents
and having an area of at least 20 hectares,
enabling comparisons with the 1991 Census.
It is not advisable to draw conclusions about
differences between ‘urbanʼ and ‘ruralʼ areas
from this report. A new classification of Rural
and Urban Areas for England and Wales was
published in August 2004 after the publication
of the Census report. This classification
was developed by ONS, the Department
for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
(DEFRA), the Office of the Deputy Prime
Minister (ODPM), the Countryside Agency and
the Welsh Assembly Government.
proportion of residents aged 45 and over:
38.2 per cent compared to 46.1 per cent in
other areas.
•
85.2 per cent of urban residents reported
their ethnicity as White British compared
to 96.5 per cent of residents of other areas.
•
The proportion of people of the Irish White
or Other White ethnicities was nearly twice
as high in an urban area as elsewhere, 4.2
per cent of the urban population compared
to 2.2 per cent of the remaining population.
•
The proportion of people of an Asian or
Asian British ethnicity was more than 13
times higher in urban areas than elsewhere,
5.4 per cent of the urban population
compared to 0.40 per cent of the remainder.
Of the Asian or Asian British ethnicities,
the proportion of: Pakistanis was nearly
24 times higher in urban areas (1.7 per
cent compared to 0.07 per cent elsewhere);
Bangladeshis over 22 times higher (0.7
per cent compared to 0.03 per cent); and
Indians nearly 11 times higher (2.4 per cent
compared to 0.22 per cent).
•
The proportion of people of Black African
ethnicity was over 16 times higher in urban
areas than elsewhere; they formed 1.1 per
cent of the total urban population and 0.07
per cent of the remainder. Similarly, the
proportion of people of Black Caribbean
ethnicity was over 15 times higher in urban
areas than elsewhere, forming 1.3 per cent
of the urban population compared to 0.08
per cent of the remainder.
•
A lower proportion of married couple
households (excluding pensioners) with
no children were found in urban areas:
11.9 per cent compared to 17.4 per cent
elsewhere.
•
29.8 per cent of urban households had no
cars or vans compared to 14.6 per cent
elsewhere.
•
43.6 per cent of households outside urban
areas own or have the use of two or more
cars or vans compared with 25.9 per cent
of urban households.
The proportion of people living in ‘urbanʼ areas
has slightly increased since 1991, by 0.2 per
cent. The number of such areas in England and
Wales has increased by nearly 100 to 1,950.
The 31 large settlements with populations of
over 200,000 contain nearly half of the total
population of England and Wales. Four areas
have over a million people each, accounting on
their own for more than a quarter of the total
population. The four are:
• The Greater London Urban Area (population
8.3 million)
• West Midland Urban Area – including
Birmingham, Wolverhampton, Dudley and
Walsall – (2.3 million)
• Greater Manchester Urban Area – including
Bolton, Manchester, Oldham, and Stockport
– (2.2 million)
• West Yorkshire Urban Area – including
Leeds, Bradford, Huddersfield and
Wakefield – (1.5 million).
Compared with 1991, the population of the
Greater London Urban Area has increased by
eight per cent or 627,000 people (while the size
of the area has increased by only 0.4 per cent,
or 613 hectares). The population density of the
Greater London Urban Area has increased by
about four people per hectare (3.7) to nearly 51
people per hectare.
This report enables the public, through simple
analysis, to compare urban areas by size of
population. The list of ‘top tenʼ conurbations
by population size has shown one change
in ranking between 1991 and 2001. The
Nottingham Urban Area has now overtaken
the Sheffield Urban Area to take seventh place,
though both increased their populations overall.
There are some interesting differences between
people living in urban areas of 10,000 residents
or more, and the remaining population of
England and Wales. Some strong contrasts can
be seen, as follows:
•
There was a higher proportion of 0–4 year
olds in urban areas with a population of
10,000 or more. They formed 6.1 per cent
of the urban population, compared to 5.3
per cent of the remainder.
•
The proportion of 20 to 29 year olds living
in urban areas was higher than elsewhere.
They formed 13.5 per cent of the urban
population compared to 8.9 per cent of the
remainder. These urban areas had a lower
Autumn 2004
The latest
releases in the
‘Focus on’ series
The ‘Focus onʼ series provides in depth topic
reports based on the 2001 Census and other
data. A number of overviews are available
from the National Statistics website at
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/focuson. Each
overview in the ʼFocus onʼ series combines
data from the 2001 Census and other sources
to illustrate its topic, and provide links to
further information. The online overviews
will be followed up with more comprehensive
analysis in fuller reports. The two most recent
3
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
topics released in this series were Focus on
People and Migration and Focus on Health.
More details of these and other reports in the
series can be found through the website address
above.
Focus on People and Migration illustrates the
dynamics of the UK population. It includes
information on changes in the age structure of
the UK, as well as on population growth and
the role of fertility and migration in driving
population change. The UK population is
growing. Until the mid-1990s this growth was
mainly due to the number of births exceeding
the number of deaths and this natural change
is set to continue. Nonetheless, low numbers
of children born and low mortality rates have
both contributed to population ageing. There is
a declining proportion of the population aged
under 16 and an increasing proportion aged
65 and over. Net international migration into
the UK from abroad has been an increasingly
important factor in population growth. Around
one in twelve of the UK population were
born overseas. Around a half of international
migrants are aged between 25 and 44 and the
overseas-born population is more concentrated
in the working age group than is the UK-born
population.
Focus on Health paints a picture of the health of
people living in Britain. It includes information
on broad measures of health, mortality, risk
factors, some preventive measures and service
provision. Particular emphasis is placed
on changes related to age and trends over
time. There are substantial geographical and
occupational variations in self-reported general
health, with people in higher managerial and
professional occupations reporting the best
health. In terms of location, those in the South
East reported the best health. People live longer
and healthier now but not all the extra years
gained are necessarily in good health. Women
still live longer than men, but the gender gap
is narrowing. One in three people will develop
cancer during their lives and one in four will die
from cancer. However, survival rates improved
for most cancers during the 1990s.
brought together over a hundred demographers,
forecasters and suppliers of primary data, as
well as the information users in the public
and private sectors. The meeting made the
BBC news website: The normally sedate
world of demography has been convulsed by
a passionate debate about whether we will all
continue to live longer, which took place at
a conference sponsored by the International
Longevity Centre UK and the British Society for
Population Studies.
Cecilia Tomassini, ONS, opened with a
presentation on Current demographic data
availability. Cecilia explained that new
generations of older people are marked by two
important characteristics: size and diversity. The
fall in fertility, advancements in mortality and
ageing of the baby-boom generations have all
contributed to the swelling numbers of the over
65s in the UK, from 7.3 million (13.2 per cent)
in 1971 to a projected figure of 12.7 million
(20.9 per cent) in 2021. The oldest old, (85 and
over) are the fastest growing group.
The overall population above age 65 in general
displays a great variety in characteristics such
as health, kin availability, income and working
patterns. Data sources need to capture this
diversity. Ceciliaʼs presentation, which will be
written up as a short article in a forthcoming
edition of Population Trends, covered the main
data sources on older people that are available,
including both cross-sectional and longitudinal
sources. She also spoke about the value of
international comparisons, where these can be
conducted within a framework of comparable
measurement.
Summary of the one-day conference
sponsored by the International Longevity
Centre UK (ILC-UK), together with the
British Society for Population Studies,
at the British Telecom Centre at 81
Newgate Street in London, on 26 April
2004
Professor Mike Murphy, London School
of Economics, talked about Population
Projections and forecasts. Having future
estimations of the demographic make-up of the
population is crucial for planning virtually all
services. Not only are the projected numbers
of older people important but so are those for
the whole population, as ageing is defined
as the proportion, rather than the absolute
numbers, of older people in a given population,
and therefore depends on the number of
younger people as well. The Government
Actuaryʼs Department produces UK population
projections. The international bodies: Eurostat
and the UN, have also made projections for
Britain. Most projections that are available
are for the population by age and sex, with
projections for some further subgroups also
being produced, for example, by marital
status, for households, or for the labour force.
However, there are no projections made of other
important subgroups such as families or health
status. These are usually made by multiplying
the proportion of people with a given
characteristic by the projected population in that
group (for example, the percentage of people
aged 85 to 89 in poor health multiplied by the
projected population of those aged 85 to 89).
The conference aim was to look at the
information needs of organisations in the
public and private sectors in planning for
an ageing society, how those needs are met
and the challenges involved in doing so. It
The lack of projections for some subgroups
can lead to misinterpretation of the future
situation. For example, there is concern about
the availability of children as potential carers
of older people in years to come. However, for
Data needs for
planning an ageing
society
National Statistics
4
the next three decades or so, more of the older
people will have living children than in any
period of Britainʼs history. For example people
born in the 1940s, who had high fertility in the
1960s, will not reach age 80 (when the need for
care tends to increase) until the 2020s.
S. Jay Olshansky, University of Illinois at
Chicago, discussed whether Human Life
Expectancy will decline in the 21st Century?
Huge reductions in infant and youth mortality
since 1900 have accounted for the majority of
the gains in increased life expectancy. Today,
around 98 per cent of children survive to reach
21 years of age as compared to 75 per cent
in 1900. Further increases in life expectancy
must therefore arise from reductions in adult
mortality. This will be more problematic given
the nature of disease in older life and will not
have as great an effect on average longevity
given their natural remaining life span. It is
likely for these reasons that the astounding
gains in life expectancy over the previous
century will not continue indefinitely into the
future. We may well discover that, like other
species, the human body has a maximum
potential life span. All organisms have a natural
life span which, by imperative of evolution,
corresponds to their genetic design and
reproductive cycle. Further efforts to achieve
massive increases in longevity may need to
tackle the genetic process of ageing itself.
In contrast, Graziella Caselli, Dipartimento di
Scienze Demografiche, Università degli Studi
di Roma ‘La Sapienzaʼ presented an alternative
view: Enjoy longer life: lessons from the past
and prospects for the future: An overview.
What steps might be taken to ensure that the
elderly in England and Wales can enjoy the
same life expectancy as, for example, their
French and Italian counterparts? Low elderly
mortality countries have achieved exceptionally
high over-65 life expectancy and there is no
obvious reason why this should not continue
to increase in the future. Giving priority to
the quality of life and providing the best
available care, when necessary, will probably
further increase observed longevity and the
number of the extremely old. To deal with this
situation, a better understanding is urged of
the socio-demographic conditions and of the
interplay between influencing factors, including
local conditions, the built environment and
the importance of caring. Action starts with
information and data collection. One of the first
steps should be the development of reliable
health measures that can monitor functional
health status, the level of frailty and the quality
of life of the oldest old.
Jenny de Jong Gierveld, Netherlands
Interdisciplinary Demographic Institiute (NIDI)
and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam discussed
Future living arrangements of older people
in Europe. Household composition and
living arrangements are crucially important
determinants of quality of life and well-being
in later life. Sharing a household with a spouse
or partner provides older adults with intimacy
and daily support. Older adults who live in oneperson households, on the other hand, have to
rely on network members outside the household
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
when they need help. The size and composition
of living arrangements of older adults are
affected by a complex set of determinants such
as their family circumstances, their health
status and their own values and standards
concerning an optimal life style. A comparison
of living patterns in Britain and the Netherlands
showed that the percentage of men and women
living as couples rises into the 60s and then
falls away again into later life, largely as a
result of spouse mortality and other pressures
such as partners going into long-term care.
Unsurprisingly a greater percentage of men in
older age groups live with their spouses, due to
better life expectancy ratios amongst women
relative to men. As age progresses, people
become most likely to live alone. Although
this may be forced by factors such as death of
a partner, it is consistent with the premise that
older people do, on the whole, seek to maintain
their independent housing arrangements
wherever possible. New trends are emerging,
recent cohorts of older people report unmarried
cohabitation. Another recent phenomenon
observed in the Netherlands is Living Apart
Together (LAT) where a relationship exists
but partners maintain independent living
arrangements. Adults aged 55 and over at last
dissolution of a marriage are less likely to
remarry, but are three times more likely to begin
a LAT relationship than those who are younger
than 55 years at last dissolution.
Lucy Haselden, ONS, talked about the
Changing profile of Britainʼs minority ethnic
groups. The ethnic minority population is
growing. It represents a segment of society
that is relatively young now but is ageing. The
overwhelming majority (92 per cent) of the
population of Britain today is White and eight
per cent of the population comes from other
ethnic backgrounds. The White and non-White
population have very different age structures.
Although 15 per cent of the White British
population is aged 65 or over, the proportions
for the other ethnic groups are much lower.
Only six per cent of the non-White population
are aged 65 or over, which works out at
235,000 people. However, there is considerable
variability between the ethnic groups, for
example, the Black Caribbean is not much
different to the White British population with
12 per cent of them aged 65 or over, whereas
just two per cent of Black Africans fall into this
age category.
The age structure of the non-White population
is ageing though it is hard to predict exactly
what their age structure will look like in the
future. This will depend on future immigration
and emigration as well as birth and death rates
for each ethnic group. ONS has started doing
some work on population projections for
different ethnic groups but this work is still very
much in its infancy. One of the problems we
are facing is the lack of data specifically about
ethnicity. Ethnicity is one of the questions that
has been proposed to be added to those asked
at birth and death registration. Together with
estimates of ethnic population, this would allow
the calculation of ethnic birth and death rates.
Tony Warnes, University of Sheffield,
discussed International migration and older
populations. He discussed how the socioeconomic situation of older people in the
population who are migrants is likely to be
different to that of older people who were born
in the country. He noted however that there
is a considerable data gap for older migrants.
One cause of data deficiencies may be a lack
of clarity in residence status, that is, because
a single permanent place of residence may
not apply. Nonetheless, the number of older
migrants is increasing for a number of reasons
and there is a need for more data to support
research. Flows can be into or out of the UK,
the rise in older migrants from the UK moving
abroad can be seen in the growth of pensions
being claimed overseas.
Stamatis Kalogirou, London School of
Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, spoke about
the Geographical distribution of older and
younger people. Ratios of older to younger
people show a wide variation across the
geography of England and Wales and this has
implications for economic and social support
structures. The spatial distribution of those aged
65 and over as well as those over 80 shows a
coastline to inner country divide between the
old and young. The south coast is the most
favourable area for those aged 65 and over.
In most rural areas the proportion of those 65
and over is high. Areas with high proportions
of non-White populations, such as London,
have lower proportions of older people. The
proportions of people 65 and over with bad
health is particularly high in certain parts of
London. Differing geographies across censuses
create some issues for making comparisons.
Jane Falkingham, University of Southampton
and Maria Evandrou, Kingʼs College
London, talked on How will tomorrowʼs
elders differ from todayʼs? Differentials
in socio-economic characteristics between
and within birth cohorts. This presentation
examined demographic change and trends in
health and health risk behaviour in Britain in
order to inform future projections, drawing out
the implications of these trends for health and
social care in later life over the next 30 years.
Although numbers of older people in the next
30 years are forecast, less attention has been
paid to the likely health and socio-economic
characteristics of future generations of elders,
and how these may differ from previous cohorts
of elderly persons. The experiences of two
cohorts that are currently retired, those born in
1916–1920 and 1931–35, are compared with
those of two younger cohorts, taken to represent
those entering retirement over the next 20–30
years, that is, those born in the late 1940s and
early 1960s.
Key findings suggest that there will be a rise
in solo living amongst elderly people; later
cohorts (those born in the 1960s) where the
level of childlessness was high may not have
the availability of adult children as potential
carers in their older years; and the evidence
on future health outcomes is mixed. There
are a number of reasons why it is premature
to suggest that tomorrowʼs elders will be
healthier in later life than current generations
Autumn 2004
of older people. Moreover, even if tomorrowʼs
elders will, on average, be healthier than
todayʼs, there may still be wide inequalities
in health risk behaviour. When making future
projections and developing models, the research
presented highlights that it is important to
take into account the diversity of experiences
both between and within cohorts. Continued
investment in longitudinal data and high quality
cross-sectional household survey data will
facilitate this type of policy relevant research in
the future.
The day ended with a panel discussion led
by Len Cook, the National Statistician, Ian
Diamond, Chief Executive of ESRC, Emily
Grundy, London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Medicine and John Hollis of the
Greater London Authority. This short report was
prepared from a longer report compiled by Ed
Harding of ILC-UK.
Late fertility: how
late can you wait?
Report of a one-day meeting sponsored
by the British Society for Population
Studies at the London School of
Economics, on 6 July 2004
The aim of this one-day meeting was to provide
insights into current trends in later fertility
from two perspectives. Firstly the biological
perspective. While life spans continue to
increase, the natural length of a womanʼs
childbearing life is thought to be finite.
However, medical innovation may allow the
extension of the childbearing span of women.
The first part of the day explored these three
issues, the biological perspective on fertility and
infertility; the availability of data on the use of
fertility treatments; and the ethical implications
for the use of fertility treatments. The second
part of the meeting was from the demographic
perspective, looking at female intentions,
trends in first births and characteristics of older
mothers.
Professor Ovrang Djahanbakhch (Barts and
the London School of Medicine, Queens Maryʼs
University London) opened the conference by
discussing Age-related changes in human
fertility. He gave an introduction to the biology
of ovulation, in particular discussing the role of
the lutenising hormone surge in ovulation.
Ovrang looked at physiological changes that
occur with regards to late fertility, in particular
decreased levels of fecundity. The number of
oocytes a woman has are at a peak at birth and
then this number decreases throughout life.
The decline is particularly marked from the age
of 37 onwards, and this is one of the factors
in decreasing fertility at older ages. Ovrang
showed that 30 per cent of fertilised eggs are
lost within two weeks of conception and that
only 30 per cent of fertilised eggs are carried to
term. The risk of miscarriage increases with a
womanʼs age, and a relationship also exists with
male age. Raised risks are seen for women age
5
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
35 and over and for men age 40 and over, with
couples comprising of a female age 35 and over
and male age 40 or over having the highest risk
of a miscarriage. There is a debate as to whether
these relationships are due to egg quality or
implantation problems. Studies looking at the
success of in vitro fertilisation with a womanʼs
own eggs compared with donor eggs, by age,
show a decline in success rates after age 39 for
women using their own eggs, but no such age
effect for women where donor eggs were used.
This implies that egg quality is important in
miscarriage rates.
Dr Françoise Shenfield, (University College
London Hospitals) presented on the Ethical
dilemmas in ART. Françoise began by
introducing some of the ‘eternalʼ debates that
exist in the field of reproduction. These include:
the status of the embryo, embryo research,
justice and access to healthcare, and concepts
of life and personhood. For example, there are
differences between countries in who is allowed
access to donor sperm. Single women and
women in same sex unions are able to receive
sperm donation in Spain, the UK and Belgium
but not in France.
Ovrang concluded by reminding the conference
how far artificial reproductive technology
(ART) has come in 25 years. However, even
though by 2004 much improved ARTs are now
available, technology cannot always solve
fertility problems and a successful outcome is
more likely if help is sought early.
Françoiseʼs talk covered some of the current
debates in the field. These include anonymity
in gamete donation, gender selection, preimplantation genetic diagnosis and allied
methods, stem cell research and multiple
pregnancies. The status of gamete donors is
different in different countries. In Sweden, for
example, identification has been compulsory
since 1985, whereas in France anonymity
is enshrined in law. From next year donor
anonymity will be removed in the UK. A study
in 2000 in Sweden showed, that even in a
country where donor anonymity does not exist,
most parents had not informed their children
that they were conceived with donor sperm.
Studies have shown that there are no differences
between children conceived from gamete
donation, naturally conceived children or
adoptive children in their assessment of school
behaviour and family interaction.
Professor Alison Macfarlane (City University)
gave a presentation titled Statistics on the
use and outcome of techniques for medical
management of subfertility in the UK: what
we can count, what we donʼt know and what
we need. She discussed the data available and
the data needed for monitoring the outcome of
the medical management of subfertility. The
main data sources currently available include
civil registration of births and deaths, data
from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology
Authority (HFEA) and prescription data.
Alison looked at multiple birth rates, showing
that they have been increasing since the
mid-1970s. In particular they have increased
amongst women aged 30 and over. The greatest
increase has been among the small numbers of
births to women aged 45 and over. There was
a decrease in triplet and higher order multiple
birth rates in the late 1990s and much more
marked decreases in 2002, following guidelines
from the Royal College of Obstetricians and
Gynaecologists on the number of embryos that
should be implanted. In part to look at these
trends further Alison then discussed work
Lisa Hilder and she have recently completed
analysing data from HFEA, to provide backup
for the Authorityʼs new Code of Practice issues
in January 2004. HFEA was established in 1991
and licences, monitors and regulates many
aspects of ART treatments.
Alison also discussed prescription data, which
illustrated some of the problems with current
data sources for investigating the medical
management of subfertility. Overall there
has been a decrease in the number of GP
prescriptions for fertility drugs, but this could
be indicative of a number of different things. It
could be that the number of prescriptions has
truly dropped, that the number of people using
the NHS for fertility treatment has dropped or
that there has been an increase in prescriptions
from hospitals rather than GPs. Furthermore
prescription data do not contain information
on whether the drugs are used and there is no
link of the data to individuals so outcomes are
unknown. Other data sources that may give
some useful information include Hospital
Episode Statistics, GP data systems and
specialist surveys.
National Statistics
6
Steve Smallwood (ONS) gave an overview of
Late fertility in the United Kingdom: past
history and future intentions. Over the last
30 years overall fertility, as represented by the
total fertility rate (TFR), has declined. At the
same time the contribution of different age
groupsʼ fertility to overall fertility levels has
changed. Fertility rates of women aged 35–39
and aged 40 and over have doubled over the
last two decades, in all of the countries of the
United Kingdom except Northern Ireland. The
percentage of the TFR that is determined by
30 year olds and over has risen; from 1982
to 2002 it rose from 26 per cent to 44 per
cent. Associated with these changes has been
increasing mean age at childbearing and at first
birth, on both a cohort and period basis. These
increases are projected to continue. The average
family size of all women increased from 2.0
children per woman for the 1920 cohort to 2.4
for the 1940 cohort. Since then family size has
declined to below replacement level at 1.98.
However, these data include childless women,
if only women who have had children are
analysed then the rises and falls in family size
are much smaller.
Steve used information from the General
Household Survey (GHS) to look at the fertility
intentions of women aged up to 38 in England
and Wales and Great Britain. The survey
asks women if they intend to have any more
children, how many children they think they
will have and how far into the future their next
birth will be. The coverage of questions on
number of children and time of next birth has
changed over time. This makes comparison
over time more difficult.
The GHS data show that although intended
family size has declined since the late 1970s,
on average women still intend to have two
children. The exception to this is at age 36–38,
where intended fertility is lower because
womenʼs intentions more closely reflect their
achieved fertility. Steve presented evidence
that fertility intentions of young women (aged
21 to 23) were not good predictors of either
fertility levels or trends. Steve also presented
results from a simple study to see whether
fertility intentions provided by married women,
who remained married, were more accurate
predictors of fertility than for all women.
This study looked at the intended fertility of a
selected cohort in one GHS and the achieved
fertility in a later GHS of women in this cohort
who had remained married. It showed these
women roughly achieved or exceeded their
stated fertility intentions.
The effect of postponement of births is seen
in the fact that from the 1957–59 cohort to the
1966–68 cohort women aged 21 to 25 still, on
average, wanted the same number of children.
However, at every age, the cohorts born in
1966–68 have a smaller family size. GHS data
also show education level has an effect on
timing of fertility. At ages under 30 women
without higher education intended to have
their births sooner than women with higher
education.
Professor Francesco Billari (Bocconi
University, Milan) presented a paper on
Pushing the age limit? Long term trends
in ‘lateʼ childbearing (based on work in
collaboration with Hans-Peter Kohler, Gunnar
Andersson and Hans Lundström). This
looked at very late fertility and the idea of
rectangularisation of first births. Demographers
have increasingly been looking at extremes
in populations, such as super centenarians.
Although the numbers of women having
children above age 40 is small, it is interesting
to look at these ‘extremeʼ cases.
Postponement of fertility is a general feature
of populations in Europe and North America.
However, the association of late age at first
birth with lower fertility at a macro level
is ambiguous. Though there is persuasive
micro level evidence that postponing first
births reduces total fertility and it seems that
‘postponersʼ often donʼt achieve their fertility
intentions.
There are physiological factors that affect
limits to fertility. Although new technologies
may partially overcome age limits there is
scepticism of realising fertility at old age.
Recent modelling work by Leridon has shown
that even with ARTs if all women started
trying to conceive at age 35, 14 per cent would
remain childless and this rises to 36 per cent
if women started trying at age 40. Various
socioeconomic factors also affect fertility at
older ages. Social norms and in particular age
norms shape the limits of fertility. For example,
in France a survey showed that 70 per cent of
women thought that the age limit to becoming a
mother was age 40 or lower. Economic analyses
have shown the most economically rational
behaviour for women is the postponement of
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
birth(s) until the perceived biological limit of
fertility; since neo-classical economic theory is
that women should wait to have children until
they have amassed the most wealth that they
can.
Rectangularisation is the process whereby
life course events become compressed into a
smaller age range, so there is a lower variability
in the ages that events occur at. For example
in fertility this would occur if 100 per cent of
women were childless to age 40 and then all
had children. Rectangularisation has occurred
with mortality, as mortality rates at younger
ages have declined and now nearly all mortality
occurs at older ages. The opposing view to
rectangularisation is that the diminishing impact
of social norms and increasing heterogeneity of
preferences and/or economic constraints may
imply a de-standardisation of fertility, with
higher variability.
Using Swedish data, Françesco looked at the
evidence for rectangularisation of all births and
first births. At the beginning of the twentieth
century there were a high absolute and relative
number of births at age 40 and over and at age
45 and over. The numbers declined over the
century until the 1970s when they started to
increase again. Occurrence-exposure rates, for
first births, show that since the 1970s at ages
40 to 43 fertility has been increasing, whilst
fertility above age 45 is not clearly expanding,
although extreme cases are becoming more
visible due to ARTs. The cohort data shows the
same pattern as this period data. There is no
clear evidence that rectangularisation of first
births is actually occurring. although analysis of
rectangularisation provided a useful reference
point.
Laurent Toulemon (Institut dʼÉtudes
Démographiques) presented the last paper,
which was titled Who are the later parents?
This looked at the characteristics of late
mothers (over age 35) with regards to age,
parity, union history and education.
Laurent presented information about the recent
changes in French fertility. The increasing
number of late births are a result of changes
in the fertility trends (delay in first births,
decreases in fertility rates at young ages and
increases in fertility at old ages), but are also, in
part, a reflection of the changing age structure
of the population. There are increasing numbers
of women at older ages and therefore the
number of births at older ages will increase, in
part, due to this.
Laurent talked about the relationship between
later fertility and lower fertility and the macro
and micro evidence for a relationship. There
is strong evidence on a micro level for a
relationship but Laurent presented two pieces
of evidence that show there is not necessarily a
real relationship at a macro level between age
at childbearing and fertility level. In France
the increases in mean age at childbirth, from
the 1970s, have not been associated with a
decline in the probability of moving on to
a next birth. Parity progression ratios at all
parities have remained very stable over the
last three decades. Laurent also showed an
international comparison that indicates there is
little association between increasing mean age
at first birth and lower fertility. The European
countries that have had the largest increases in
mean age at first birth are not the ones that have
also shown the greatest declines in total fertility.
Therefore, Laurent commented that you could
not necessarily infer a macro relationship from
micro level data.
Autumn 2004
Laurent also presented work he has done
looking at the characteristics of older mothers.
The proportion of births that are occurring to
women aged 35 or older has been increasing
for all birth orders, but the biggest increase
has been for first order births. Older mothers
(age 35 and over) are becoming more like
younger mothers with regards to birth order
characteristics. Previously, older mothers
were the women having higher order births,
for example, their third or fourth child. These
higher order births have now decreased and
older mothers are more likely to be having a
second or first order birth.
There has been an increase in births that are
first births for the union but not first births for
the mother. Also late births are increasingly
occurring in second unions, and this trend is
even more pronounced for men. However,
the increase in fertility in second unions is
not specific to older parents. With regards
to educational achievement women with the
highest fertility rate over age 35 are women
with a degree, previously this used to be women
with no education. But, there are also more
women in the population with a degree, so part
of this change is due to a social change in the
population.
Recent Publications
Focus on people and migration (July, available on the National
Statistics website at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/focuson/migration)
Census 2001: definitions (TSO, £40, July, ISBN 0 11 621754 5)
Health Statistics Quarterly 23 (TSO, £21, August, ISBN 0 11 621721 9)
Census 2001: key statistics for urban areas (TSO, £82, June, ISBN
0 11 621743 X)
Mortality Statistics: general, 2002 (DH1 no. 35) (September, available
on the National Statistics website at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/
product.asp?vlnk=620)
Census 2001: key statistics for urban areas in the Midlands (TSO,
£80, July, ISBN 0 11 621745 6)
Census 2001: key statistics for urban areas in the North (TSO, £80,
July, ISBN 0 11 621744 8)
Census 2001: key statistics for urban areas in the South East (TSO,
£80, July, ISBN 0 11 621746 4)
Census 2001: key statistics for urban areas in the South West and
Wales (TSO, £80, July, ISBN 0 11 621747 2)
National population projections 2002-based (PP2 no. 24) (TSO,
£32.50, July, ISBN 0 11 621753 7)
Office for National Statistics Annual Report and Accounts 2003–04
(TSO, £15.65, July, ISBN 0 10 292953 X)
All of the above TSO publications can be ordered on 0870 600 5522
or online at www.tso.co.uk/bookshop. All publications listed can be
downloaded free of charge from the National Statistics website.
Focus on health (July, available on the National Statistics website at
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/focuson/health)
7
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Autumn 2004
Demographic indicators
Figure A
England and Wales
Population change (mid-year to mid-year)
Thousands
300
Natural change
Total change
200
100
0
-100
7
19
1–
72
–7
73
Figure B
6
5
4
3
–7
72
–7
74
–7
75
8
7
–7
76
–7
77
–8
79
2
1
0
9
–7
78
–8
80
–8
81
4
3
–8
82
–8
83
5
–8
84
2
1
0
6
8
7
0
9
2
1
4
3
6
5
8
7
9
–8 6–8 7–8 8–8 9–9 0–9 1–9 2–9 3–9 4–9 5–9 6–9 7–9 8–9 200 0–0 1–0
85
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9 9– 00 00
2
2
9
Mid-year
Total period fertility rate
TFR (average number of children per woman)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1971
1973
Figure C
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
Year
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
1983
1985
1987
Year
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
1983
1985
1987
Year
Live births outside marriage
Percentage of all live births
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1971
1973
Figure D
1975
1977
1979
1981
Infant mortality (under 1 year)
Rate per 1,000 live births
20
15
10
5
0
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
National Statistics 8
1981
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
Perpetual postponers? Women’s,
men’s and couple’s fertility
intentions and subsequent
fertility behaviour
Ann Berrington
Division of Social Statistics and
Southampton Statistical Sciences
Institute, University of Southampton
In this article data from the British
Household Panel Study (BHPS)
are used to analyse gender
differences in fertility intentions,
and the correspondence between
fertility intentions and subsequent
fertility behaviour. By exploiting
couple-level data, we examine
whether partners have conflicting
preferences for future fertility.
Focusing on women who remain
childless in their thirties we look
at socio-demographic factors
related to the intention to remain
childless, or to start a family later
on in life. By following up women
over time, the characteristics of
women who go on to have a child
later on in life are considered. The
importance of having a partner
and the fertility intention of that
partner in predicting whether a
birth will occur are also examined.
BACKGROUND
More women in England and Wales are reaching the end of their
reproductive careers without having had a live birth. The figure rose from
one in ten women born in 1945 to around one in five women born in 1960
(Figure 1). Whilst there appears to be some slowing between the 1965
and 1970 cohorts, the postponement of childbearing, and possibly the
ultimate proportion who will remain childless, has once again increased
among the 1975 cohort.
As shown in Table 1, the increase in childlessness has been the driving
force behind the decline in average completed family size in England
and Wales, at least up until the 1960 birth cohort. The number of women
ending up with three or four biological children has been the same (19
per cent and 10 per cent respectively) for the 1950, 1955 and 1960
cohorts, with a small decrease in the number of two-child families. In
contrast to other European countries, the one child family has not yet
become significantly more common in England and Wales.
The 2002-based national population projections assume that the
percentage of women remaining childless will increase a little further, to
about 22 per cent of those born in 1990 and later, accompanied by a small
increase in the number of one child families.1 However, among some subgroups – particularly those with degree level qualifications – the growth
could be substantially higher. Focusing on women in their early forties at
the time of the 2000 and 2001 General Household Surveys (cohorts born
towards the end of the 1950s), Figure 2 shows that 28 per cent of those
with degree level qualifications remained childless, compared to around
20 per cent of those with intermediate qualifications and 16 per cent of
women with no qualifications. Women with degree qualifications were
also more likely to have just one child, bringing the total who ended up
with none or one to almost half. In contrast, women with no educational
qualifications are significantly less likely to have just one child, and more
9
N
Naatti ioonnaal l SSttaatti isstti iccss
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Figure 1
Autumn 2004
Figure 2
Proportion of women who are childless by
age, selected birth cohorts
Percentage distribution of completed family
size by highest educational qualification,
women aged 40–44
England and Wales
Great Britain
100
1.00
0.90
0.80
80
0.70
0.60
Per cent
60
0.50
0.40
40
0.30
0.20
20
0.10
0.00
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45
Age in completed years
1945
1955
1965
1950
1960
1970
0
Degree
Other
higher
A level and
nursing
O level
Other
None
Completed Family Size
1975
0
1
2
3
4+
Source: author’s analysis of General Household Survey data 2000–01 and 2001–02
Source: ONS Birth Statistics, 2002, Table 10.3
Achieved family size at age 40 for selected
birth cohorts
Table 1
England and Wales (percentage distribution)
Birth
Cohort
0
1
2
3
4+
Average
family
size
1945
1950
1955
1960
10
14
16
19
14
13
12
12
43
44
41
39
21
19
19
19
12
10
10
10
2.18
2.05
2.00
1.95
Source: ONS Birth Statistics, 2002, Table 10.5
likely to have four or more children; indeed twenty per cent of women
with no educational qualifications ended up with four or more children.
As noted by Rendall and Smallwood2 the relationship between
educational qualifications and fertility in England and Wales is the
outcome of two counter pressures, balancing a tendency to postpone the
start of childbearing against an acceleration in subsequent childbearing
from the point of entry into motherhood. Currently the postponement
effect dominates the subsequent acceleration, so that more highly
educated women tend to end up with smaller family sizes. Deferring
childbearing leaves less time for subsequent births – referred to in the
demographic literature as the tempo-quantum interaction; impaired
fecundity associated with biological ageing means that women may not
explicitly choose not to have a child but may end up childless anyway.
A key question is whether the observed higher percentages of childless
among more educated women are the result of planning (either early on
in life, or later in their careers), or from perpetual postponement – that
is to say, always maintaining either a positive or ambivalent intention
to have a child but delaying to some date in the future and ultimately
National Statistics
10
reaching the end of their reproductive years childless.3 In the current
context of postponement of the start of childbearing, and the presence
of competing activities such as the demands of a career, it has become
difficult to distinguish between voluntary and involuntary childlessness.4,5
For example, childbearing may be desired but no suitable partner may be
available; or the opportunity costs associated with childbearing may be
too great. Nevertheless, what is clear is that women need to be aware of
the consequences of the ‘choicesʼ they make regarding the postponement
of fertility, and have a realistic idea of the likelihood that they will end up
with their desired number of children.
AIMS OF THE RESEARCH
In this article we use prospective data from a panel study to analyse
individualsʼ fertility intentions and subsequent demographic behaviour.
We move beyond existing research in Britain in a number of ways.
First, we include men as well as women in our analyses to find out
if men in low fertility countries such as Britain have lower intended
family sizes than women. If this were true then it might explain why
desired family sizes from survey data relying on womenʼs reports alone
(for example, those from the General Household Survey (GHS)6) tend
to overestimate future childbearing at the aggregate level. Secondly,
because the BHPS is a household survey, both members of a couple are
interviewed. We are thus able to identify the extent to which partners
have conflicting preferences for future fertility. Voas argues that the way
in which such disagreements are resolved can have a dampening effect
on subsequent fertility – if, for example, childbearing only takes place
when both partners desire an additional child. He suggests ‘Modern
societies typically attach greater importance to individual autonomy than
to childbearing; social forces tend to support someone wishing to avoid
having a child, and generally the partnerʼs consent is expected before
any attempt at conceptionʼ.7 Furthermore, Voas proposes that inertia may
be an additional mechanism through which the status quo (the use of
contraception by a couple) will tend to prevail until there is agreement as
to whether an additional child should be tried for.
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Thirdly, the BHPS survey repeats the questions on fertility intentions
after an interval of six years. It is thus possible to examine, at the
individual level, the extent to which intended family size is revised
over time. We test whether the tendency, observed for aggregate data,
for intended family size to be reduced among older women, holds at
the individual level.8 Fourthly, panel data from the BHPS allow us
to examine, again at the individual level, the relationships between
intentions and subsequent fertility. We focus in this article on childless
women in their thirties, and examine the characteristics of those who
report that they do and do not intend having any children. Finally,
we investigate the extent to which older childless women go on to
have a birth at older ages and examine whether the individualʼs own
characteristics (such as level of education, earnings, gender role attitude),
the presence of a partner and the partnerʼs reported fertility intention are
related to ‘successful postponementʼ.
In summary our research questions are as follows:
Figure 3
Autumn 2004
Average expected family size among women
aged 18–39, EU 15
France
UK
Ireland
Finland
Denmark
Sweden
Belgium
Portugal
Luxembourg
Greece
Netherlands
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
How do fertility intentions differ by age, parity and gender?
Do couples report conflicting intentions?
How persistent are womenʼs fertility intentions over time?
How many women achieve their fertility intentions?
What are the characteristics of older childless women who intend to
have a birth?
6. What are the characteristics of older childless women who go on to
have a birth?
Spain
Italy
Germany
Austria
0
0.5
1
1.5
Births per woman
2
2.5
Source: 2002 Eurobarometer Survey, Fahey and Spéder, 2004
Before describing the BHPS and presenting our results, the next section
puts forward a few words relating to the problems inherent in analysing
and interpreting fertility intentions data.
ISSUES SURROUNDING THE ANALYSIS AND
INTERPRETATION OF FERTILITY INTENTIONS DATA
Measures of intended or expected family size are usually based on
survey questions which ask respondents whether they think they will
have (additional) children. This type of question is somewhat different
to questions which ask respondents to identify either their ‘idealʼ or
‘desiredʼ family size. The actual wording of such questions can make a
large difference to the answers obtained. Clearly, a woman may desire an
additional child, but due to constraints, for example, of time or financial
resources, may not intend to have another. Common to all of these
fertility questions, however, is the assumption that individuals are able
to make, and report in a generalist social survey, rational choices about
if and when they would like to have children. A considerable literature
has debated whether this is likely to be the case. Criticisms include
the inability of individuals (and couples) to make assumptions about
their future ability to reproduce, the significant number of births that
are reported to be unplanned, the lack of ability to foresee future socioeconomic conditions, and the possibility that responses merely reflect
existing social norms, for instance concerning ideal family size. Westoff
and Ryder, using data from the US, found considerable mis-match at both
the individual and aggregate level between intentions and subsequent
fertility, arguing that ‘respondents failed to anticipate the extent to which
the times would be unpropitious for childbearingʼ.9 A similar tendency
for women to over-estimate their future fertility was observed in French
data from the 1970s, suggesting that there is considerable uncertainty in
intentions.10
The persistence through time of anticipated family sizes at or above
replacement level, in the context of period fertility rates well below
replacement level, has also thrown into question the usefulness of this
type of survey data. Recent data from the 2002 Eurobarometer Surveys
(Figure 3) suggest that expected family size has now fallen to well
below replacement level for younger cohorts in Austria, Germany and
Italy. However, the UK is one of four EU15 countries – France, UK,
Ireland and Finland – which continue to have an intended family size
above two births per women.11 At the same time, other research takes
a more positive view on the usefulness of fertility intentions data.
Using prospective data from the US National Survey of Families and
Households, Schoen et al find that fertility intentions are important
independent predictors of subsequent fertility behaviour and argue that
intentions are not merely transient phenomena mediating the effects of
other life course variables.12
THE DATA
The data used come from the British Household Panel Study (BHPS)
which has surveyed around 5,000 households annually since 1991. In
the second wave, in 1992, and again in the eighth wave, in 1998, adults
of childbearing age were asked: ‘Do you think you will have any (more)
children?ʼ. Possible answers were ‘Yesʼ, ‘Self, partner pregnantʼ, ‘Noʼ,
ʼDonʼt knowʼ. If the respondent responded ‘Yesʼ, they were then asked
‘How many (more) children do you think you will have?ʼ Respondents
were invited to give a number, or report ‘donʼt knowʼ.
We follow the usual practice of using biological parity as an indicator of
parenthood status. Whilst being relatively straightforward to calculate,
this approach suffers from the fact that it ignores children for whom
the respondent is the mother- or father-figure but not the biological
parent. Given the increase in partnership dissolution and repartnering,
many individuals, particularly men, are co-resident with children who
they are not the natural parent of, yet these children are likely to be of
consequence in the decision whether or not to have another child.13,14
Whilst it would be theoretically possible to identify step-children, the
sample size of BHPS makes it infeasible to carry out a separate analysis
for this group. Indeed, whilst over 5,000 households were included in the
BHPS, sample sizes within gender, age and parity groups are relatively
small.
An individualʼs achieved number of live births (parity) in 1992 is
calculated using data from retrospective fertility histories collected in the
11
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
second wave. Men in particular may under-report the number of previous
children they have fathered, especially those with whom they are not coresident.15 Subsequent fertility is indicated from the arrival of a natural
child of the respondent into the household. Detailed information on the
relationship of this new arrival to each household member is available
from the household grid. Our measure of fertility thus assumes that
children are co-resident with their parent. Since this is unlikely to be the
case for a significant minority of children of male respondents, we only
attempt to analyse the subsequent fertility of female panel members.
small compared to the former.) A significant minority of men and women
are uncertain about their fertility intentions – ranging from just two per
cent of women in their late thirties with at least two children (Table
1c), to 37 per cent of childless men in their late thirties (Table 1a). The
finding that the childless women are more uncertain about their intentions
is consistent with research based on the GHS.16 These data suggest that
the same is true for childless men, and that differences in the level of
uncertainty according to gender are small; if anything, men tend to report
more uncertainty than women.
Analyses of fertility intentions reported at wave 2 are based on the total
sample of males and females who responded at wave 2, irrespective of
whether they responded to other waves. For these analyses (Tables 1a–c,
Table 2 and Figures 4 and 5), we therefore use wave 2 cross-sectional
weights to account for unequal sample selection and non-response.
The responses are thus representative of the national population in
1992. Note that the sample sizes in all tables refer to the unweighted
sample. For the longitudinal analyses we are interested in changes in
individualsʼ intentions over time, and the relationship between intentions
and behaviour at the individual level. We focus on women who took part
in all of the first eight waves of BHPS. Since we are interested here in
within-individual change, we use unweighted data.
Of childless men and women in the youngest age group, the majority
(over 60 per cent) intend to have two children; fewer than 7 per cent
intend to remain childless; and between 4 per cent and 6 per cent intend
to have only one child. Among older childless men and women the
proportion intending to have children is much lower. Nevertheless one
in five childless women in their late thirties intends to have a child, with
one in ten intending to have at least two. Fifteen percent of childless men
in their early forties intend to have children, with one in eight intending
to have two.
RESULTS
How do fertility intentions differ by age, parity and
gender?
Tables 1a to 1c show the percentage of the population intending to
have a further birth according to gender, age and parity. Since menʼs
reproductive lifespans are not limited to the same extent as womenʼs,
we include men up until age 49. Where the respondent (or their partner)
is currently pregnant, the pregnancy does not count towards current
parity but is included as an intended birth. (Unlike the GHS the BHPS
questionnaire does not explicitly tell the respondent how they should
consider their current pregnancy when responding to the fertility
intention question – we argue that before the child is actually born it is
an intended birth.) Row percentages refer to those who gave a definite
answer to the question of how many more children they think they will
have. The final column contains the number who either responded that
they did not know whether they intended to have a(nother) birth, or
that they did intend to have a birth, but did not know how many further
children they think they will have. (Note that the latter group is very
Distribution of number of further children
intended by childless respondents, by gender
and current age
Table 1a
Age
in 1992
0
1
2
3+
Number
giving
an
intention
(100 per
cent)
Number
reporting
‘don’t
know’
Percentage
reporting
‘don’t
know’
Women
18–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
6.7
17.0
37.5
81.3
4.3
9.9
14.4
7.6
61.4
57.3
35.0
9.7
27.6
15.9
13.2
1.4
326
173
93
57
51
37
37
21
13.5
17.6
28.5
26.9
Men
18–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
6.2
11.8
27.0
59.1
84.2
97.6
5.8
5.8
8.5
11.3
3.4
0
66.9
60.2
55.2
24.8
12.4
2.4
21.1
22.1
9.4
4.8
0
0
320
166
118
68
54
45
109
69
55
40
11
10
25.4
29.4
31.8
37.0
16.9
18.2
Source: author’s analysis of British Household Panel Survey
National Statistics
12
Table 1b shows the corresponding data for respondents who currently
have one child. The percentage who intend to have no further children
increases rapidly with age from one quarter of women aged 18–24
to three quarters of women aged 35–39. The trend for men is similar.
Teenage parents and those in their early twenties were the most likely to
intend to have an additional three or more children, giving a completed
family size of at least four. Those who were aged in their late twenties
were the most likely to plan a single further birth, which would result in
a two-child ‘normʼ. Women who had achieved only one child by their
late thirties are much less likely to intend to have an additional child, but
given the relatively small sample size (n=50) caution should be taken in
generalising from this.
The number of men and women in the youngest age group who already
have at least two children is rather small, but the data shown in Table 1c
suggest that it is these individuals who are more likely to intend further
births. It is striking that 95 per cent of both men and women in their late
thirties said they did not think they would have an additional birth. The
latter may reflect a strong social norm that two children represent ‘a
complete familyʼ.
Total intended family size is calculated as achieved fertility plus
the number of future intended births. As has been found for women
Distribution of number of further children
intended by respondents with one child, by
gender and current age
Table 1b
Age
in 1992
0
1
2
3+
Women
18–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
23.6
27.4
38.9
77.3
34.7
43.6
41.7
18.5
25.6
13.9
14.2
3.5
16.2
15.1
5.3
0.7
Men
18–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
32.7
24.9
37.1
53.7
94.5
96.8
20.6
42.1
36.5
33.2
3.6
0
31.4
22.1
15.7
4.0
1.9
0
15.3
10.9
10.6
9.2
0
3.2
Number
giving
an
intention
(100 per
cent)
Source: author’s analysis of British Household Panel Survey
Number
reporting
‘don’t
know’
Percentage
reporting
‘don’t
know’
54
86
76
50
6
14
14
9
10.0
14.0
15.6
15.3
23
60
78
39
43
57
5
14
9
8
10
6
17.9
18.9
10.3
17.0
18.9
9.5
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Distribution of number of further children
intended by respondents with two or more
children, by gender and current age
Table 1c
Age in
1992
Women
18–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
Men
18–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
0
1
2
3+
Number
giving an
intention
(100 per
cent)
Number
reporting
‘don’t
know’
Percentage
reporting
‘don’t
know’
63.7
76.4
86.1
95.4
20.9
18.3
9.6
3.1
7.5
4.6
2.0
0.1
7.8
0.6
2.3
1.4
48
141
251
267
3
29
27
6
5.9
17.1
9.7
2.2
46.7
67.3
79.3
95.8
98.6
98.3
21.3
25.5
9.9
2.4
1.5
0.9
28.8
5.3
6.7
1.4
0
0.3
3.2
1.9
4.1
0.4
0
0.6
10
67
157
210
235
253
4
15
20
24
14
5
28.6
18.3
10.3
11.3
5.6
1.9
Source: author’s analysis of British Household Panel Survey
using data from the GHS, all age groups continue to report an average
completed family size of just over two births, with this uniformity hiding
larger differences in intended parity distribution (Table 2). There is no
evidence of a substantial difference between men and women either in
the overall average intended family size, or in the pattern of intended
family size distribution by age. Older men and women are significantly
more likely to intend to remain childless. 13 per cent of the 35–39 year
olds expect to remain childless compared to 5 per cent of those aged
18–24. Older men and women are also more likely to intend to have just
one child, whilst younger men and women are more likely to aspire to
two children exactly. The low percentages intending to remain childless
or to have just a single child are striking and in contrast to recent
estimates for other European countries, notably Germany and Austria
where over 30 per cent of those aged 20–34 years report that they intend
to either remain childless or have just one child.17
A significant minority of both men and women, across all age groups,
intend to have a third or higher order birth. The percentage ranges from
24 per cent of men aged 18–24, to 37 per cent of women in their early
thirties. At first sight these intentions seem unrealistic, given that period
fertility rates are well below replacement level – but in fact if we refer to
recent estimates of achieved true birth order based on General Household
Table 2
Age in
1992
0
Distribution of total intended family size
distribution and average family size by gender
and current age
1
2
3+
4+
Average
intended
family
size
Number
giving
intention
(100 per
cent)
Women
18–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
5.1
7.9
8.6
13.1
6.4
10.1
10.3
11.2
56.3
51.1
43.7
45.7
20.2
22.2
24.7
19.1
12.0
8.6
12.7
10.9
2.29
2.15
2.28
2.07
428
400
420
374
Men
18–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
5.7
6.8
9.2
13.0
14.6
11.4
7.4
8.6
11.0
9.5
13.4
15.6
63.3
53.1
47.4
49.7
42.3
45.7
17.9
23.3
22.3
17.5
18.8
16.0
5.7
8.1
10.1
10.4
10.9
11.4
2.18
2.19
2.17
2.05
2.01
2.08
353
293
353
317
332
355
Source: author’s analysis of British Household Panel Survey
Autumn 2004
Survey data from the early 1990s, around 26 per cent of women in their
late thirties had already achieved 3 or more births.18
In summary, womenʼs aggregate fertility intentions derived from the
BHPS are similar to those found by Smallwood and Jefferies (2003).
Moreover, we suggest that men express similar levels of uncertainty to
women and that their fertility intentions develop with age and parity in
a similar way to womenʼs; there is little evidence, at the aggregate level
at least, that men intend to have fewer births than women. This does not
preclude the possibility, within couples, of individuals disagreeing about
their intended fertility – a question to which we now turn.
Do couples report conflicting intentions?
In order to examine conflicting intentions between male and female
partners, we select couples where the woman was aged 18–39 in 1992.
Of our original sample of 1,876 women aged 18–39, 1,229 reported
having a partner at wave b. 118 of these partners did not provide a
full interview at wave 2, so our sub-sample of couples for whom we
have both partnersʼ intentions is 1,111. Our conclusions regarding
the consistency of partnersʼ intentions are based on fully responding
couples and may, therefore, be biased towards homogeneity of response.
Furthermore, as Voas argues, consistency in the expressed intentions of
partners within survey data may hide initial differences in preferences
since ‘one would generally expect differences to be resolved (whether
by negotiation or domination), and many partners will subsequently
adopt the agreed position as their ownʼ.19 We must be aware too that both
partners may be present at the survey interview, with the result that the
reporting of intentions is not independent. To declare an intention to have
another child in the knowledge that the partner does not share that wish
could easily be interpreted as implying that the union is impermanent,
and one supposes that few respondents are likely to give such answers.
In the BHPS survey the interviewer is asked to note who was present
during this section of the interview, so we know that for four in ten cases
the womanʼs partner was present when she answered the questions on
fertility intentions.
Figure 4 shows for women of different parity who intended to have
a(nother) child, the percentage of male partners who also intended
to have a(nother) child, the percentage who did not know, and the
percentage who did not intend to have an additional child. The three
bars correspond to childless women, those with one child, and those
with two or more children. Womenʼs positive fertility intentions are
generally shared by their male partner. However, the percentage of men
also reporting that they intend to have a birth declines with the number
of children already born. Among childless women who want at least one
child, 95 per cent of men also report a positive fertility intention. Yet
among women who have two children but expect another child, only 56
per cent of male partners express the same intention. If, as Voas suggests,
lower preferences dominate, these additional births may not occur.
Agreement with partnerʼs intention is also high for women not intending
(additional) children (Figure 5). In this case however, the percentage
of men who agree with their partner is highest for women who already
have two children (93 per cent), and lowest for childless women (76 per
cent). In fact, in cases where a childless woman did not intend to have
a further child no men in our sample said that they thought they would
have a(nother) child, but 24 per cent were unsure. Disagreement here
refers to men being more uncertain. Replication of these remarkable
levels of agreement on larger samples would be desirable before making
additional inferences but the findings are certainly very striking.
For all parities, agreement is slightly lower among couples where the
male partner was not present at the womanʼs interview. The general
patterns shown in Figures 4 and 5 are the same, however, and differences
in the overall level of agreement are not statistically significant.
13
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
In the last section of the article we carry out a multivariate analysis to
see if partnerʼs fertility intentions add any power to models predicting
whether childless women subsequently have a birth. We first exploit the
fact that the BHPS repeated the fertility intention questions six years later
to examine the persistence of individual womenʼs intended family size
over time.
Figure 4
Distribution of male partner’s intention to
have a(nother) child among women who
stated that they want a(nother) child
100
80
How persistent are women’s fertility intentions over
time?
We now turn to the persistence of respondentsʼ fertility intentions
between waves 2 (1992) and 8 (1998), taking account of their
intermediate fertility experiences. Since we need to know about children
born subsequent to 1992, we can only undertake this analysis for women
who took part in all of the waves between 2 and 8 inclusive. 26 per cent
of the women reporting in 1992 did not continuously take part in each
sweep up to 8. Comparison of intended family size distributions of this
sub-sample with the original sample present at wave 2 suggests that those
followed up slightly over-represent more educated women, older women,
and under-represent those with initial intentions to have three or more
births.
The figures shown in Table 3 suggest that after six years there are
significant alterations of intended family size, especially among the
youngest women. Whilst it is not always the case that intended family
size is reduced over time, there does seem to be a tendency for women
to revise their intention downwards rather than to increase it. Half of the
women aged 18–24 at the start had the same intended family size six
years later, almost a third had reduced their intended family size, and one
fifth had increased it. Older women were more likely to remain constant
in their intended family size, but any change was more likely to be
downward. Monnier argues that this systematic over-estimation of future
fertility results from respondents reporting a possibility of future fertility
rather than expressing a well thought out strategy.20
Per cent
60
40
20
0
Table 3
0 (n=210)
1 (n=103)
2+ (n=66)
Individual consistency in total intended family
size reported in 1992 and 1998
Woman’s parity
No
Male Partner's Intention
d.k.
Yes
Age in
1992
Smaller
intended
family size
1998
Same intended
family size
in 1998
Larger
intended
family size
in 1998
Sample
giving an
intention in both
1992 and 1998
18–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
Total
30.3
23.0
13.3
5.5
17.5
51.2
59.5
76.5
92.4
70.6
18.5
17.5
10.3
2.2
11.8
254
252
302
275
1,083
Source: author’s analysis of British Household Panel Survey
Figure 5
Distribution of male partner’s intention to
have a(nother) child among women who
stated that they did not intent an a(nother)
child
Source: author’s analysis of British Household Panel Survey
100
How many women achieve their fertility intentions?
At the aggregate level unintended and unachieved births may cancel each
other out, so that fertility intentions might match achieved fertility. Data
from BHPS allow us to examine gross ‘errorʼ at the individual level.
Table 4 shows the percentage of women who had a birth within six years
according to their original intention.
80
Per cent
60
40
20
0
0 (n=62)
1 (n=56)
2+ (n=458)
Woman’s parity
Yes
Male Partner's Intention
d.k.
Source: author’s analysis of British Household Panel Survey
National Statistics
14
No
In total, 50 per cent of women who intended a (further) birth actually
had one. 11 per cent of those who originally intended not to have a birth
did so. There are significant differences according to age. Clearly the
younger women have a number of childbearing years left to them and so
the fact that only just over a third of those who were intending to have
a birth did so within six years should not necessarily be interpreted as a
non-fulfilment of their intention. For the oldest age group, approaching
the end of their reproductive years, almost half (44 per cent) did not have
the child they originally intended. Unintended fertility was quite rare
among the oldest women, only 2 per cent having such a birth. However,
somewhat surprisingly, a third of the youngest women, and one-fifth
of those in their late twenties who did not intend to have a child, did
so within six years. We might hypothesise that for young adults, many
life course events can occur within six years. In particular, women not
currently in a partnership may be reluctant to report intentions to have
children, but once they enter into a partnership childbearing becomes
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Table 4
Age in 1992
18–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
Total
Percentage of women having a birth within six
years according to age and intention to have a
(further) birth in 1992
Not intending, in 1992,
to have (further)
birth
Intending in 1992, to
have (further)
birth
Did not know
in 1992
33.3
21.1
9.8
2.3
10.5
36.3
63.5
58.5
56.0
49.8
45.8
45.8
30.2
11.5
34.4
Autumn 2004
Box one
BRITISH HOUSEHOLD PANEL SURVEY QUESTIONS
USED TO CONSTRUCT GENDER ROLE ATTITUDE
SCORE
Note: Sample excludes women pregnant in 1992.
Source: author’s analysis of British Household Panel Survey
much more of a reality. The impact of time-varying covariates such as
partnership formation on womenʼs intentions and behaviour could be
analysed using BHPS data, but in practice the sample size of women
aged 18–24 who originally intended to be childless is too small (50
women) to obtain useful results.
When we break down Table 4 by parity the numbers become rather small
but suggest that women with one child are the most likely to fulfil an
intention to have a further birth – 84 per cent of such women aged 25–29
and 77 per cent of those aged 30–34 doing so. However, slightly less than
half of childless women aged 30–34 and 35–39 who intended to have a
child succeeded within six years. For many of these women the increase
in sub- and in-fecundity associated with age means that time will be
running out. We focus in the next section on these older childless women,
and examine which factors are related to the intention to begin a family
at older ages (that is, to be a postponer), and the characteristics of older
women who do go on to have a child.
What are the characteristics of older childless
women who intend to have a birth?
The BHPS provides an opportunity to investigate the characteristics of
older women who do and do not intend to remain childless. We take the
sample of childless women in their thirties present at wave 2 (n=199) and
perform a multinomial regression analysis of the probability that they
either intend to have a further birth, donʼt know, or do not intend to have
a further birth. Age is entered in continuous form as a control variable.
Since lack of a partner is an important constraint facing childless women
we include a binary variable indicating whether the woman was in a coresidential partnership (including both marriage and cohabitation).21,22
Given the postponement effect of higher education on childbearing
we expect that the percentage intending to have a birth at older ages
will be higher for more educated women. We compare childless
women with higher qualifications, and O level & above qualifications,
with the reference group who have below O level or no educational
qualifications. In order to identify the group of professional childless
women with the greatest potential economic opportunity cost resulting
from foregone earnings associated with leaving the paid labour force to
care for children, we identify those who have net earnings in the highest
quartile. Finally, research in the US suggests that voluntarily childless
women are more likely to hold egalitarian attitudes towards womenʼs
roles and the importance of womenʼs paid work outside the home.23 We
therefore include a measure of gender role attitude (derived from the sum
of the response to six attitude statements asked in wave 1 – see Box 1
for details). Gender role attitudes are more egalitarian among younger
women, and among more educated women.24 Once these factors are
controlled we hypothesise that those with the most egalitarian attitudes
will be less likely to intend to have a future birth.
(1) a pre-school child is likely to suffer if his or her mother
works
(2) all in all, family life suffers when the woman has a full-time
job
(3) a woman and her family would all be happier if she goes out
to work
(4) both the husband and wife should contribute to the
household income
(5) having a full-time job is the best way for a woman to be an
independent person
(6) a husband’s job is to earn money, a wife’s job is to look
after the home and family.
Responses were given on a 5-point Likert Scale, strongly
agree (1 point) to strongly disagree (5 points). The
scoring for questions 3, 4 and 5 is inverted so as to make
consistent with the rest. The gender role score is the sum
of the individual scores and thus has a minimum of 6 and
maximum of 30. Among the 199 childless women aged 30–
39 the mean was 17.98 with a standard error of 0.19. We
use a cut off of score of 20 or more to indicate egalitarian
attitude. This corresponds to 13 per cent of women.
Table 5 contains the parameter estimates from the multinomial logistic
regression model with their statistical significance.25 See Box 2 for details
of how to interpret the coefficients from logistic regression models and
the meaning of odds ratios. The three levels of the dependent variable
indicate whether the woman ‘intends to have a birthʼ, ‘does not know
whether she will have a birthʼ, and ‘does not intend to have a birthʼ. The
reference group for the dependent variable is ‘does not intend to have a
birthʼ. Therefore the parameter estimates in column one refer to the log
odds ratio of ‘intending to have a birthʼ relative to ‘not intending to have
a birthʼ for that category of the covariate relative to the baseline category
of the covariate. More positive parameter estimates in column one refer
to an increased likelihood of intending to have a birth. Similarly, more
positive parameter estimates in column 2 are associated with increased
likelihood of being uncertain, as opposed to not intending to have a birth.
To facilitate interpretation, we calculate predicted probabilities of being
in each of the response categories of the dependent variable for selected
populations and display them in Figures 6 and 7.
Consistent with the earlier cross-tabulations, age is seen to be strongly
related to the probability that women intend to start a family. However,
contrary to expectations, whether or not the woman has a partner is not
significantly associated with intention. Educational level is strongly
associated with fertility intention. Figure 6 shows the predicted
probabilities of a childless woman aged 35 being in each of the response
categories, according to highest level of education. The remaining
covariates are set so that they represent women with a partner, who have
average earnings and are more traditional in their gender role attitude.
Women with intermediate level qualifications are the most likely to report
that they think they will start a family (30 per cent did so), compared
to 19 per cent of women with higher qualifications and just 6 per cent
of women with below O level and equivalent qualifications. Among
those who remain childless at older ages, we find a positive relationship
15
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Table 5
Autumn 2004
Parameter estimates from multinomial
logistic regression of fertility intentions of
childless women aged 30–39
Figure 7
Predicted fertility intention for degree
educated childless women aged 35 according
to gender role attitude
Baseline of dependent variable is ‘does not intend to have a birth’
0.8
Variable
‘Intends to have a birth’
β (s.e.)
Intercept
14.21
Age in years
–0.48*** (0.07)
‘Does not know’
β (s.e.)
(2.81)
7.27
Egalitarian
0.7
(2.40)
Traditional
0.6
–0.23** (0.07)
0.14
0
Highest educational qualf.
Higher level
O level & above
Below O level & none
1.50** (0.76)
2.12*** (0.74)
0
(0.42)
–0.19
0
(0.38)
0.33
0.34
0
(0.57)
(0.55)
Probability
0.5
Has a partner
Yes
No
0.4
0.3
0.2
Earnings
Highest quartile
Rest
Gender role attitude
Egalitarian
Traditional
0.87*
0
(0.52)
0.66
0
(0.50)
–1.12*
0
(0.61)
–0.31
0
(0.54)
Sample = 199 childless women aged 30–39 at wave 2.
* p<0.10 ** p<0.05 *** p<0.01
Source: author’s analysis of British Household Panel Survey
Figure 6
0.8
Degree
O level and above
0.6
Below O level
Probability
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
no
yes
Fertility intention
d.k.
Source: author’s analysis of British Household Panel Survey
between high earning status and the anticipation of starting a family.
For highly educated women in the top earnings quartile, the probability
of intending to start a family increases from 19 per cent to 30 per cent.
Lastly, we find that gender role attitude has an independent effect on
fertility intention. Once age and education are held constant, women with
more egalitarian attitudes are significantly (p<0.10) less likely to intend
to start a family. Figure 7 shows the predicted probabilities according to
gender role attitude for 35 year old, degree educated women with average
earnings. Whilst 19 per cent of degree educated women with traditional
attitudes think they will start a family, only 8 per cent of those with the
most egalitarian attitudes did so.
National Statistics
16
0
no
yes
Fertility intention
d.k.
Source: author’s analysis of British Household Panel Survey
Predicted fertility intention among childless
women aged 35, according to highest level of
education
0.7
0.1
In summary, data from the BHPS suggest that women who have
postponed starting a family into their thirties but who continue to expect
to start a family are characterised by higher levels of education and
higher earnings. Fertility intentions of older childless women do not seem
to be affected by whether they are currently in a partnership, but, given
their level of education, women who have more egalitarian attitudes
about womenʼs paid work outside the home are less likely to intend to
start a family.
What are the characteristics of older childless
women who go on to have a birth?
Next we investigate the characteristics of women who start a family
whilst in their thirties, identifying the predictive effect of the womanʼs
own fertility intentions, and those of her partner (where present). Table
6 shows the coefficients from a binary logistic regression of whether the
woman had a birth within six years, for childless women aged 30–39 in
1992 (see Box 2 for details of method). We run three separate models.
The first model contains covariates describing the womanʼs demographic
and socio-economic characteristics as discussed in the previous section.
The second model includes an additional variable describing the womanʼs
original intention in 1992. The reference category is ‘did not intend to
have a childʼ. If the parameter estimate associated with intending to
have a child is significantly different from the reference category given
the other socio-demographic characteristics of the woman, this provides
evidence of an independent effect for intentions. The final model uses a
composite variable to identify the effect on subsequent fertility of having
a partner with similarly positive intentions to have a child (the reference
category); a partner who does not have similarly positive intentions;
having a partner but not intending to have a child (recall that in almost all
of these cases the womanʼs partner also did not intend to have a child);
and having no partner at all. Comparison of the parameter estimates for
the first two categories provides an indication of the additional impact of
the male partnerʼs intention.26
Age is a key factor predicting whether childless women in their thirties
will go on to have a birth, in all three models. Whilst being in the upper
earning quartile is positively associated with starting a family at older
ages, no difference in the actual observed fertility is found according
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
Box two
INTERPRETING ODDS RATIOS FROM LOGISTIC
REGRESSION MODELS
What are odds?
Set the probability of a woman having a birth within six years to be
0.6, thus p = 0.6. Then the probability of not having a birth which is
(1 – p) is 0.4. The odds of the woman having a birth within six years
are p/(1–p) = 0.6/0.4 = 1.5.
What is an odds ratio?
Suppose that eight out of ten women with no educational
qualifications have a birth within six years, compared to four out of
10 women with degree level qualifications.
The odds of a women with no qualifications having a birth = 0.8/0.2
= 4.0000.
The odds of a degree educated woman having a child = 0.4/0.6 =
0.66667.
Next we compute the odds ratio for having a child = 4.0000/0.6667
= 6.
Thus the odds of having a birth are 6 times higher among women
with no educational qualifications.
What is binary logistic regression?
Logistic regression models the logarithm of the odds of an outcome
as a linear combination of predictor variables. Logit = ln(p/(1–p)) =
b0+b1X1+b2X2+. . .
How do we interpret the coefficients from binary
logistic regression?
The coefficients from the regression shown in Table 6 are the
increase in the log odds ratio associated with a one unit increase
in X. If the predictor variable is categorical then the coefficient
represents the increase in the log odds ratio of achieving an outcome
associated with that category of the predictor variable compared to
the reference category of the predictor variable.
For example, in Model 1 of Table 6, the coefficient for having a
partner present is 1.18. This is the increase in the log odds ratio of
having a birth within six years for women who did have a partner as
compared with those who did not. The odds ratio can be computed
to educational level. Despite the fact that having a partner was not
associated with the intention to have a birth, the odds of having a birth
are found to be three times higher for women with a partner (odds
ratio = exp(1.18) = 3.25). Model 2 shows that fertility intentions have
an independent effect on actual fertility, with the odds of a birth being
(exp(2.00) = 7.22) seven times higher for those who said that thought they
would start a family. Notice that once the womanʼs fertility intention
is accounted for in Model 2, the parameter estimate for gender role
attitude becomes more positive – that is to say, egalitarian women are
less likely to intend to have a child, but among those who do intend to
have a child, they are more likely to do so (p<0.10). Finally, in Model 3
we estimate the combined effect of having a partner and this partnerʼs
by raising e to the power of the logistic coefficient. In our example the
odds ratio is thus e1.18 = 3.25. That is to say that the odds of having a
birth within six years are 3.25 times higher for women with a partner
than for women without a partner, taking account of the other factors
included in Model 1.
How are predicted probabilities calculated?
We can demonstrate the effect of a predictor variable on the
probability of an outcome by calculating the predicted probability of
each outcome for different populations with chosen characteristics.
For example, in Figure 8 we examine the probability of having a birth
within six years according to the woman’s and her partner’s fertility
intention. All other variables are held constant at a chosen level – here
we choose to refer to a 35 year old childless woman with a degree
who has average earnings and more traditional gender role attitudes.
The predicted probability, π1, of having a birth within six years for a
childless woman where both she and her partner intend to have a
child, is thus
π1 = e(b0+b1X1+b2X2+. . .) / 1+e(b0+b1X1+b2X2+. . .)
= e(7.82+(35*–0.24)+0.02) / 1+e(7.82+(35*–0.24)+0.02)
= 0.5712/1.5712 = 0.3635
The predicted probability, π2, for a woman with no partner and who
does not intend to have a child is
π2 = e(7.82+(35*–0.24)+0.02+–2.47) / 1+ e(7.82+(35*–0.24)+0.02+–2.47)
= 0.0483/1.0483 = 0.0461
What is multinomial logistic regression?
Multinomial logistic regression is an extension of binary logistic
regression used when the dependent variable has three or more
categories. In the section of the article ‘What are the characteristics
of older childless women who intend to have a birth?’ we model the
probability that a woman either a) intends to have a birth, b) does not
know, or c) does not intend to have a birth. We choose the baseline
for the dependent variable to be does not intend to have a birth. The
multinomial logistic model breaks the regression up into a series of
binary regressions comparing each of the possible outcomes to the
baseline outcome. Thus the first column of coefficients in Table 5 are
the log odds ratios of intending to have a child, versus not intending
to have a child associated with the particular category of the predictor
variable. As for binary logistic regression the coefficients can be
exponentiated to give odds ratios and predicted probabilities of being
in each of the categories of the dependent variable calculated for a
population with given characteristics of predictor variables.
intentions. (Figure 8 shows the predicted probabilities based on a degree
educated childless woman aged 35 who has average earnings and more
traditional gender role attitudes). Women in a couple where their partner
also intends to have a child are the most likely to achieve a birth (36 per
cent). The chances of having a birth may be slightly lower for couples
where the woman does, but the man does not, intend to have a child
(29 per cent) – but the difference is not statistically significant. Women
without a partner, especially those who do not intend to have a birth, are
significantly less likely to start a family (4 per cent).
17
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
Coefficients from logistic regression of
whether childless women aged 30–39 had a
birth in subsequent six years
Table 6
Variable
β
Intercept
Model 1
(s.e.)
7.83
Age in years
Had a partner in 1992
Yes
No
β
Model 2
(s.e.)
(2.98)
3.11
(3.33)
–0.31***
(0.09)
–0.20**
(0.10)
1.18**
0
(0.50)
1.27**
0
(0.52)
β
Model 3
(s.e.)
7.82
(3.14)
–0.24** (0.10)
Highest educational qualification
Higher level
0.33
O level & above
0.14
Below O level & none
0
(0.70)
(0.69)
Earnings
Highest quartile
Rest
0.90*
0
(0.49)
0.93*
0
(0.53)
0.93*
0
(0.52)
Gender role attitude
Egalitarian
Traditional
0.66
0
(0.57)
1.11*
0
(0.62)
0.95
0
(0.59)
Woman’s fertility intention
Yes
Did not know
No
–0.07
–0.36
0
(0.75)
(0.75)
0.02
–0.30
0
(0.74)
(0.74)
2.00*** (0.62)
1.11*
(0.65)
0
Joint fertility intention
Partner, both intend
Partner, woman intend, man not intend
Partner, woman not intend
No partner, woman intends
No partner, woman not intend
0
–0.32
–1.51***
–1.53**
–2.47***
(1.11)
(0.52)
(0.72)
(0.78)
Sample = 151 childless women aged 30-39 at wave 2 who remained continuously in the
survey until wave 8 1998.
* p<0.10 ** p<0.05 *** p<0.01
Source: author’s analysis of British Household Panel Survey
Figure 8
Probability of a birth within six years among
childless women aged 35 according to her own
and her partner’s fertility intention
0.40
0.35
0.30
Probability
0.25
Has a partner
CONCLUSIONS
The BHPS has proved a valuable source of individual level data on
fertility intentions and behaviour. However, the relatively small sample
sizes within any one gender, age and parity group mean that our
conclusions must remain tentative. At the aggregate level, data from the
BHPS provide similar results regarding age specific patterns of womenʼs
fertility intentions as are obtained from the General Household Survey.
Data for men from the BHPS suggest that aggregate menʼs fertility
intentions are remarkably consistent with womenʼs, in terms both of
patterns by age and current parity, and intended completed family size.
No evidence is found to suggest that men in Britain intend to have
smaller families. Prospective longitudinal data from the BHPS suggest
that women tend to overestimate their future fertility, and that this is
particularly the case for childless women. Not all the ‘errorʼ is in terms
of lack of births, however. A considerable minority of younger women
did not intend to have a birth, but ended up having one anyway. We have
shown that as women age, they do tend to revise their fertility intentions
downwards. These findings lend support to arguments which question
the usefulness of fertility intentions as predictors of actual fertility and
for use in population projections. At the same time, the multivariate
analyses suggest that, despite many women over-estimating their future
fertility, fertility intentions among older childless women have the
greatest power in predicting who will actually go on to have a birth. This
may be interpreted as meaning that intentions have an independent value
and should not be dismissed. Fertility intentions over the life course are
likely to be modified by individualsʼ fertility experience and changing
socio-economic and demographic circumstances. Whilst in theory the
BHPS provides prospective longitudinal information on such changes
– for example, on partnership formation and dissolution, employment
status and health – the sample sizes are not large enough within particular
age and parity groups to warrant the inclusion of these additional timevarying characteristics into an analysis.
Of particular interest are the significant number of women who have
postponed childbearing into their thirties and who continue to intend
to start a family. Data from the BHPS suggest that only around half
will manage to do so in the subsequent six years. Further research is
required to investigate the extent to which those who did not achieve a
birth (the perpetual postponers) were unable to for biological reasons
as opposed to social or economic constraints. Whilst level of education
is strongly correlated with the intention to start a family among older
women, no educational differences in the likelihood of actually having a
child are seen. Instead, it is women in the top earnings quartile who have
postponed childbearing into their thirties who are the most likely to have
a child at older ages. Whilst these women have the greatest opportunity
cost of childbearing in terms of foregone earnings if they leave the labour
force or reduce their hours to undertake childcare, they also have the
greatest amount of money to pay for formal care. Analyses of the BHPS
suggest that a lack of a partner is a key variable affecting the chance of
starting a family at older ages, supporting the qualitative evidence of
popularist writers.27
No partner
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
both
only
woman
woman
Source: author’sintend
analysis of British
Household not
Panel Surveyintend
woman
intends
intend
National Statistics
18
woman
not
intend
Having a partner with conflicting fertility intentions will affect the
likelihood of a future birth. Comparison of matched partnersʼ intentions
has demonstrated considerable consistency in the responses. The
desire to present a unified front to an interviewer, especially when both
partners may be present at the interview, does not mean that there are
no underlying differences of intention in both the number and timing
of births. BHPS data suggest that conflicting responses are likely when
the woman already has two or more children and intends to have a
further birth. In such cases almost half of the men were either uncertain
or did not intend to have other child; if couples tend only to go for an
additional birth when both parties are in agreement, then it is possible
that such differences of intention will result in lower observed fertility
than intended family size estimates would suggest. For childless women
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
in their thirties who intended to have a birth, we found only weak support
for the hypothesis that having a male partner with a conflicting intention
reduced the probability of actually achieving the birth. What is clear
is that, statistically speaking, a childless womanʼs intention is more
important in predicting future fertility than her partnerʼs. Future research
should consider whether this dominance of the womanʼs intentions
changes with parity – one might speculate that women who are keen to
have children will overcome opposition to start a family, but that with
each additional child it becomes increasingly unlikely that pronatalist
intentions will prevail if the partner is reluctant to have more.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Data from the British Household Panel Survey were collected by the
Institute for Economic and Social Research, University of Essex and
made available by the UK Data Archive. Data from the 2000–01 and
2001–02 General Household Surveys were also made available by the
UK Data Archive. Part of this work was carried out within an ESRCfunded project ‘Modelling Attitude Stability and Changeʼ (grant number
H333250026). The author thanks Julie Jefferies, Steve Smallwood, David
Voas and the anonymous referees for their helpful comments.
ADDRESS FOR CONTACT
Ann Berrington
Division of Social Statistics
University of Southampton
Southampton, SO17 1BJ
E-mail: amb6@soton.ac.uk
Key findings
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
At the aggregate level, data from the British Household
Panel Survey (BHPS) suggest that men’s and women’s fertility
intentions are consistent. No evidence is found that men intend
to have smaller families than women.
Within couples there is considerable consistency in the
reported future intended fertility.
Conflicting responses are more likely when the woman already
has two or more children and intends to have a further birth.
In such cases almost half of the men were either uncertain or
did not intend to have another child.
Prospective individual level data from the BHPS show that
women overestimate their future fertility.
Of the childless women aged in their thirties who intended to
start a family only around one half managed to do so in the
subsequent six years.
Whilst the fertility intentions of older childless women do
not seem to be affected by whether they are currently in
a partnership, having a partner is a key factor affecting the
likelihood that the woman will have a child.
Starting a family when aged in their thirties is more common
among women in the highest earnings quartile.
Autumn 2004
REFERENCES
1. Smallwood S (2003) Fertility assumptions for the 2002-based
national population projections. Population Trends 114, pp 8–18.
2. Rendall M S and Smallwood S (2003) Higher qualifications,
first birth timing, and further childbearing in England and Wales.
Population Trends 111, pp 19–26.
3. Veevers J F (1973) Voluntarily childless wives: an exploratory study.
Sociology and Social Research 57, pp 356–366.
4. Houseknecht S K (1987) Voluntary Childlessness. Pp 369–395 in
Sussman, M B and Steinmetz S K (eds.) Handbook of Marriage and
the Family. Plenum Press: New York.
5. McAllister F and Clarke L (1998) Choosing childlessness. Family
& Parenthood, Policy & Practice. Family Policy Studies Centre:
London.
6. Smallwood S and Jefferies J (2003) Family building intentions in
England and Wales: trends, outcomes and interpretations. Population
Trends 112, pp 15–28.
7. Voas D (2003) Conflicting preferences: A reason fertility tends to
be too high or too low. Population and Development Review 29, pp
627–646.
8. Smallwood S and Jefferies J (2003).
9. Westoff C F and Ryder N B (1977) The predictive validity of
reproductive intentions. Demography 14, pp 431–453.
10. Monnier A (1989) Fertility intentions and actual behaviour: a
longitudinal study: 1974, 1976, 1979. Population: An English
Selection 44, pp 237–259.
11. Fahey T and Spéder Z (2004) Fertility and family issues in an
enlarged Europe. European Foundation for the Improvement of
Living and Working Conditions. Office for Official Publications of
the European Communities: Luxembourg.
12. Schoen R, Astone N M, Kim Y J, and Nathanson C A (1999). Do
fertility intentions affect fertility behavior? Journal of Marriage and
the Family 61, pp 790–799.
13. Jefferies J, Berrington A and Diamond I (2000) Childbearing
following marital dissolution in Britain. European Journal of
Population 16, pp 193–210.
14. Stuart S D (2002) The effect of step-children on childbearing
intentions and births. Demography 39, pp 181–197.
15. Rendall M S, Clarke L, Peters H S, Ranjit N and Verropoulou G
(1999) Incomplete reporting of menʼs fertility in the United States
and Great Britain: a research note. Demography 36, pp 135–44.
16. Smallwood S and Jefferies J (2003).
17. Goldstein J, Lutz W and Testa M R (2003) The emergence of subreplacement family size ideals in Europe. Population Research and
Policy Review 22, pp 479–496.
18. Smallwood S and Jefferies J (2003).
19. Voas D (2003).
20. Monnier A (1989).
21. Bongaarts J (1998) Fertility and reproductive preferences in posttransitional societies. Population Council Working Article No. 114.
22. Hewlett S A (2002) Creating a Life: Professional Women and the
Quest for Children. Talk Miramax: New York.
23. Houseknecht S K (1987).
24. Berrington A (2002) Exploring reciprocal relationships between
family attitudes and entry into parenthood: Evidence from the British
Household Panel Study. In Lesthaeghe R (ed.) Meaning and Choice:
Value orientations and life course transitions. NIDI-CBGS: The
Hague.
25. Agresti A (2002) Categorical Data Analysis: Second Edition. Wiley
& Sons: New Jersey.
26. Thomson E (1997) Couple childbearing desires, intentions and
births. Demography 34, pp 343–354.
27. Hewlett S A (2002).
19
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
Characteristics of sole
registered births and the
mothers who register
them
Steve Smallwood,
Population and Demography Division
Office for National Statistics
INTRODUCTION
This article explores the
characteristics of live births where
no father was present on the birth
certificate (sole registrations)
using registration data. It
then uses data from the ONS
Longitudinal Study to examine
some characteristics of mothers
who have ever experienced a sole
registered live birth. It shows that
as a proportion of all births, sole
registrations have remained fairly
constant over the last two decades,
although since 1998 there is some
evidence of a fall in the proportion.
For mothers born between 1955
and 1962 around nine per cent
experienced a sole registration.
Those who ever experienced a
sole registration were around four
years younger when they began
their childbearing. These women
also had larger families and were
more likely to come from a lower
social class background.
NNaat ti oi onnaal l SSt taat ti si st ti ci css
Births outside marriage can take place in a number of different
partnership contexts (see Box one). One indicator of the partnership
context at birth is the information about the father recorded at the birth
registration. Many, but not all, mothers who register a birth where a
father is not present on the birth certificate are lone mothers. Therefore,
mothers who experience a sole registration are highly likely to have the
characteristics of lone mothers and the possible consequences associated
with lone motherhood.
The main aims of this study are: to help understand sole registrations
in the context of non-marital childbearing; to look at the characteristics
of mothers who ever experience a sole registration; and, to look at the
lifetime childbearing of women who ever sole register a birth.
Up until recently, the presence of a father on the birth certificate for
a birth that occurred outside marriage gave the father no rights or
responsibilities towards the child. From 1 December 2003, under
section 111 of the Adoption and Children Act 2002, an unmarried father
automatically acquires parental responsibility if his particulars are
recorded in the entry of a birth registered (or re-registered) on the joint
information of both parents or on the information of one parent with a
statutory declaration acknowledging paternity from the other parent.
Only a limited amount of information is available on the family situation
of a child at birth. The absence of a father on the birth certificate
might be thought to indicate that the mother would not have the close
involvement of the father and entry into (or continuation of) lone
parenthood in the care of the child. A number of studies have used sole
registration as a proxy for lone parenthood.1,2,3 Recent work from the
20
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Millennium Cohort Study4 by Kiernan and Smith, indicates that although
lone parenthood is highly likely at the time of a sole registration, in a
large minority of cases, just under a third, the father is likely to be closely
involved or living with the mother. Table 1, which is based on data from
the work by Kiernan and Smith, indicates that for over half of the sole
registrations in the study (54 per cent) there was either no relationship
or a separation/divorce. For around 14 per cent the father was ‘just a
friendʼ. However, for nearly a third of sole registered births there is likely
to be involvement with the father; for 23 per cent of all sole registered
births the woman described the father as being closely involved and in 8
per cent of all sole registered births the woman was cohabiting with the
father.
Table 1
Distribution of sole registered births by
partnership status with biological father at the
time of birth
Autumn 2004
to eight per cent. In the second half of the 1990s there is some evidence
of sole registration decreasing as a percentage of all births, falling from
around 7.9 per cent in 1998 to 7.2 per cent in 2003. Sole registrations
have become a much smaller proportion of births taking place outside
marriage. In the mid-1960s over 60 per cent of births outside marriage
were sole registrations, this has now fallen to 17 per cent in 2003.
The age pattern of sole registered births is different from that of other
births and therefore the changing age distribution of the population will
affect the trend. Figure 2 shows the percentage of live-births that have
been sole registrations for each year in the last 30 years and compares
Live births outside marriage and sole
registrations as a percentage of all live births
Figure 1
England and Wales
United Kingdom
50
Not in relationship
Separated/Divorced
Friends
closely involved (but not cohabiting)
Cohabiting
percentage
51
4
14
23
8
Source: Millennium Cohort Study, author‘s own calculations from figures provided by Kath
Keirnan from data set used in Keirnan and Smith (2003)4
Having a sole registration is just one of the pathways into lone
parenthood and the disadvantages that lone parents face compared with
couple mothers.5 There have been relatively few studies in the UK
analysing specifically the outcome of having a sole registered birth.
Haskey6 has looked at the subsequent marriage patterns of women who
experienced a birth outside marriage in 1998. He found from a sample of
2,500 births outside marriage in 1988 that for mothers of sole registered
births only one in six had married in the following eight years compared
with one in four for all women in the sample. Ermisch and Francesconi7
using life table methods applied to British Household Panel Study data
estimated that the median duration of lone motherhood was less than two
years for mothers who began their motherhood with no resident partner.
For women who were lone mothers through separation from marriage
or cohabitation they found a median duration of four years. However,
both groups will include mothers where the father appears on the birth
certificate but at a different address.
SOLE REGISTRATIONS IN ANNUAL BIRTHS REGISTRATION
45
Outside marriage
40
Percentage of all livebirths
Partnership status at birth
35
30
25
20
15
10
Sole registrations
5
0
1966
Figure 2
1971
1976
1981
1986
Year
1991
1996
2001
Percentage of live births that are sole
registrations, and percentage contribution
of sole registrations to the total fertility rate
(TFR), 1966–2003
England and Wales
10
DATA
Percentage of TFR
9
Live births
The proportion of all births that were sole registered dropped in the
late 1960s to early 1970s, which was the time of the introduction of
legalised abortion. It remained fairly constant through the 1970s, but
the rose to five per cent in 1980 and to around eight per cent at the end
of that decade. Since then, the proportion has fluctuated around seven
8
7
Percentage
Since the 1970s the proportion of births occurring within marriage has
fallen (see Figure 1). In England and Wales the percentage of births
occurring outside marriage has risen from under one in ten in the mid
1970s to just over four in ten births (41.4 per cent in 2003). For just over
a quarter of all births (26.3 per cent of births in 2003) the father on the
birth certificate was living at the same address as the mother and this
can be taken as an indication that the mother and father are cohabiting.7
Of the remaining births outside marriage, just over half had the father
appearing on the birth certificate but living at a different address and just
under half had no father appearing on the birth certificate.
Percentage of births
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1966
1971
1976
21
1981
1986
Year
1991
National Statistics
1996
2001
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
it with the percentage contribution of sole registered births to the total
fertility rate (TFR), which controls for the changing age distribution
of the population. The slight decline from the mid-1980s to the mid1990s in the proportion of all births is not reflected in the proportional
contribution to the TFR and the proportional contribution to the TFR
continues to increase. However, sole registered births have been falling
as a proportion of the TFR since the mid-1990s.
Figure 3 shows the mean age of mothers of sole registered births and the
mean age for all births. Looking at the unstandardised mean age, sole
registrations occur, on average, to mothers around four years younger
than the average age for all births. This difference has varied over time
with the largest difference being over 4.5 years in the mid-1970s. This
fell to less than 3.5 years at the beginning of the 1990s before rising back
to around 4.2 years at the beginning of the century. This increase has
occurred as the rise in the mean age of sole registered births has slowed
since the mid-1990s while the rise in mean age of all births has not.
This is almost entirely due to the changing age distribution of the
population. Sole registered births occur predominately among younger
women and cohorts who were young in the 1990s were smaller than the
large generations of women born in the 1960s who reached their 30s in
the 1990s. Standardising for the population age structure shows that the
rise in mean age for all births and sole registered births is fairly similar
and the difference remained constant at around four years.
Stillbirths
Compared with live births, sole registrations are a greater proportion of
stillbirths. Figure 4 shows that the percentage of stillbirths that were
sole registered rose from under 10 per cent in the 1970s to around 14 per
cent by 1990. Since then the proportion has dropped back to around 10
per cent, but this is still nearly three percentage points higher than the
proportion of livebirths. The mean age of the mother for a sole registered
still birth is on average around one year higher than that for a sole
registered live birth, but the trends are similar to live births.
Figure 3
Mean age of mother for all births and sole
registrations, 1966–2003
Multiple births
Sole registrations are less prevalent amongst multiple births. The rate of
multiple births per 1,000 sole registered maternities was 12 per 1,000
in 2003, whereas overall the rate for all maternities was 15 multiple
maternities per 1,000 maternities. This differential has increased over the
last decade or so, in 1991 the equivalent figures for multiple maternities
were 11 per 1,000 sole registrations and 12 per 1,000 for all births.
Increases in the differential are likely to have resulted from changes in
population age structure and in part because multiple maternities may
result from fertility treatments, which in turn are more likely to be to
couples where a resulting birth is less likely to be sole registered.
Country of birth
A recent study by Collingwood Bakeo8 found the highest average
incidence of sole registration for births in 1999–2001 among Caribbeanborn women (one in five births) and then West African-born women
(one in eight births). Conversely sole registered births are least prevalent
amongst Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi born women where, in
the period 1991–2000, well under one per cent of births were sole
registrations. For UK born women just under eight per cent of births were
sole registrations.
Birthweight
Collingwood Bakeo8 also found that low birthweight babies (under
2,500g) are more prevalent amongst sole registered births. Around one
in ten low birthweight children are sole registered, compared with one in
thirteen births weighing 2,500 grams or more.
WOMEN WHO EXPERIENCE A SOLE REGISTRATION
In order to examine characteristics of women who have ever experienced
a sole registration the ONS Longitudinal Study (LS) was used. The LS
contains linked census and event data for one per cent of the population
of England and Wales.9 The LS sample originally included 1971 Census
of Population information, for people born on one of four selected
dates of birth. These four dates were used to update the sample at the
England and Wales
30
Figure 4
29
28
England and Wales
16
27
26
14
25
12
24
10
Percentage
Mean age (years)
Percentage of stillbirths that are sole
registrations, 1966–2003
23
22
21
8
6
20
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
Year
1991
1996
2001
4
2
All births
unstandardised
Sole registrations
unstandardised
All births
standardised
Sole registrations
standardised
0
National Statistics
22
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
Year
1991
1996
2001
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses and with routine event registrations.
Events include births, deaths, widow(er)hoods, cancer registrations
and migration. New LS members enter the study through birth and
immigration. The data available means that birth histories for women
can be constructed using anonymised datasets from the LS. The principal
events examined here were live births to female members of the LS.
Sample design
As a check on the suitability of using the LS to look at sole registrations
the proportion of births in the LS that were sole registrations was
compared with the proportion of sole registrations among all births.
Figure 5 shows that, over time, the pattern of sole registered births in
the LS was very similar to that for all registered births. However, prior
to 1991 it does appear from the data here that the proportions of births
Figure 5
Percentage of births that are sole
registrations, registration data and ONS
Longitudinal Study
9
8
7
Percentage
in the LS that are sole registered were, on average, a little below that in
the population (by around 0.4 percentage points). This suggests that until
1991 sole registered births were slightly less likely to be linked into the
study than other births.
In order to only include births to those women whose entire birth history
is recorded in the LS a sub sample of women was selected. All women
who were present in the 1971, 1981 and 1991 Census, and who were not
recorded as having died or emigrated were selected. However, it should
be noted that, even after this refinement, these birth histories would
contain a slight level of bias when compared to true birth histories, as
the linkage of registered births in the study is incomplete.10 Linkage rates
of between 83 to 88 per cent have been found for the 1981–1988 period
and similar linkage rates have been indicated by more recent work.11
No adjustment has been made for this bias in the analysis here. Also it
may be that the fertility of these women and their propensity to have a
sole registration varies from the population of women as a whole, where
mortality, emigration and immigration may affect the results.
Cohorts born in the years 1955 to 1962 were selected for analysis. The
data set contained births up to 2000. For all the women chosen the
beginning of their exposure to childbearing was therefore included,
the oldest women being 16 in 1971. Women born in the earliest years
(1955–57) had effectively completed their childbearing by 2000. Women
born in the late 1950s and early 1960s would have been very close to
completing their childbearing; any further children are not likely to
change either the information at first birth, or have much effect on the
composition of the subgroup we are interested in studying.
England and Wales
6
Autumn 2004
Birth registration data
Those births in the sample that were to the 1,804 women who had
ever experienced a sole registration were identified. Tables were then
produced for all women in the sample who had experienced a birth and
for women who had ever experienced a sole registration.
5
4
ONS Longitudinal Study data
3
2
1
0
1971
Table 2
1976
1981
1986
Year
1991
1996
2001
Making use of the social class of women at time of first birth is difficult
for several reasons. Firstly, if the first birth was a sole registration it
is less likely that a social class will be allocated, as the woman is less
likely to have an occupation recorded at the time of the birth registration.
Secondly, until 1986, if the first birth was a joint registration or was
within marriage only the occupation of the father was recorded. Thirdly,
using social class from registration data is made more complex because
there have been changes to the classification over time. For these reasons
the decision was taken to base analyses of womenʼs fertility on their
Mean age at birth of first child and completed family size: women born 1955–1962, comparison of LS sample1 and
all births
England and Wales
National data to 20022
ONS Longitudinal Study to 2000
Year of birth
of woman
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
Total
Mean age at
birth of first
child (years)3
24.8
25.1
25.3
25.5
25.3
25.6
25.7
25.8
25.4
Average completed
family size
(excluding childless)3
2.26
2.24
2.26
2.25
2.32
2.25
2.22
2.17
2.25
Number in
sample
Mean age at
birth of first
child (years)3
2,277
2,496
2,489
2,531
2,424
2,472
2,601
2,681
19,971
25.0
25.2
25.3
25.5
25.7
25.7
25.8
25.8
25.6
Average completed
family size
(excluding childless)3
2.38
2.40
2.42
2.43
2.41
2.43
2.43
2.39
2.41
1 See text for additional conditions
2 National data on births by birth order are estimated from registration data and General Household Survey data and are regularly published in Birth Statistics FM1. The mean
age at first child has been calculated from rates using the number of first births by age as the numerator and the numbers of women in the population as the denominator. The
average completed family size has been produced by dividing the overall average by the proportion of women who have ever had a live-birth.
3 Note that the mean age and completed family size will be slightly underestimated for the younger cohorts shown as they are still within their fertile years.
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study and birth statistics derived from national registration data
23
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
fatherʼs social class as recorded in the 1971 Census. These women were
aged around 9–16 at the time of the 1971 Census and so their fatherʼs
social class should provide a reasonable indication of their socioeconomic background.
Results
Table 2 shows the results for all women in the LS sample who had a
birth and were born between 1955 and 1962 (a total of 19,971 women). It
shows their mean age at first birth and the total number of children they
have had. It also compares these figures with national estimates from
registration data.
The pattern of age at first birth is similar for both the LS data and the
registration data, with mean age at first birth rising between women born
between 1955 and 1962. Completed family size was consistently lower
in the LS sample than in the registration data. This is as a result of both
unlinked births in the LS, and also the fact that the national data includes
births for 2001 and 2002.
Table 3 shows equivalent information to Table 2 for the subgroup of
women from the LS who have ever experienced a sole registration.
It shows that around nine per cent of mothers in this sample ever
experienced a sole registration. These women had their first birth on
average four years earlier than all women and had around 0.43, or 19 per
cent, more children than the average for all mothers in the sample.
Table 3
Table 4 provides more information on the number of sole registrations
that mothers in the sample experienced. Of the 1,804 women, around one
in five experienced a further sole registration. For the individual cohorts
the probability of progressing to a second sole registration ranged from
around 0.18 to 0.26. The sample numbers are too small to calculate the
odds of proceeding to a third sole registration for each cohort of women
who have already experienced two sole registrations, but using all the
cohorts covered by this study the probability is around 0.28. While the
sample numbers are small there is clear evidence that of women who
experience a sole registration a substantial minority have at least one
further sole registration.
Analysis by social class for all women in the sample and women who
have ever experienced a sole registration is shown in Table 5. Social
class was determined by using the variable that indicates the social class
of the womanʼs father at the 1971 Census. Small sample numbers meant
it was only possible to analyse the data by grouping into three categories:
non-manual; manual; and other. Around 14 per cent of mothers who
experienced a sole registration came from a non-manual social class
background, compared with 28 per cent of all the mothers in the sample.
The proportions in manual classes were 66 and 59 per cent respectively
and in the ‘otherʼ category 20 and 13 per cent. Most of the women in the
‘otherʼ category (which includes armed forces, inadequately described
occupations, students and no information available on the father or his
occupation) had no father present in 1971 (around 77 per cent of the
‘otherʼ category).
Mean age of women at birth of first child and completed family size: women born 1955–1962, comparison of
women in LS sample1 who had ever experienced a sole registration and all mothers in LS sample1
England and Wales
ONS Longitudinal Study to 2000
Year of birth of
woman
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
Total
Mean age at birth of
first child
Difference from all mothers
in ONS LS sample
21.4
21.3
21.3
21.5
20.9
22.1
21.4
21.6
21.4
Completed family size
(excluding childless)2
–3.4
–3.9
–4.0
–4.0
–4.4
–3.5
–4.4
–4.3
–4.0
Difference from all women
in ONS LS sample
2.63
2.71
2.64
2.66
2.91
2.51
2.77
2.56
2.67
Number in sample who
experienced a sole
registration
0.37
0.47
0.38
0.41
0.59
0.26
0.55
0.40
0.43
193
219
212
238
221
236
235
250
1,804
Percentage of all mothers in
ONS LS sample
8.5
8.8
8.5
9.4
9.1
9.5
9.0
9.3
9.0
1 See text for additional conditions
2 Note that this will be slightly underestimated for the younger cohorts shown as they are still within their fertile years.
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
Table 4
Numbers of women in the LS sample who ever experienced a sole registration by number of sole registrations,
women born 1955–62
England and Wales
Year of birth of
woman
Single sole registration
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
Total
Two sole registrations
159
176
170
182
164
190
181
203
1,419
25
34
31
47
37
32
37
36
279
- Too few births to estimate
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
National Statistics
24
Three or more sole
registrations
9
9
11
9
20
14
17
17
106
probability of having a second
sole registration
Probability of a third sole
registration, given two
0.176
0.196
0.198
0.235
0.258
0.195
0.230
0.212
0.213
0.275
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Table 5
Percentage of women by social class of father in
1971 Census, for all mothers LS sample, and for
mothers who experienced a sole registration,
women born 1955–1962
Percentages
England and Wales
Social class of the mother’s father
Year of birth of
woman
Non-Manual†
Manual‡
Other•
56
59
58
58
61
59
58
61
59
15
13
14
14
12
12
12
11
13
Number
All mothers in LS sample
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
Total
29
27
28
28
27
29
30
28
28
2,277
2,496
2,489
2,531
2,424
2,472
2,601
2,681
19,971
Mothers ever experiencing a sole registration in LS sample
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
Total
12
11
15
15
15
15
16
13
14
61
68
63
66
65
68
66
70
66
(Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding)
† Non-manual includes
Class I
Class II
Class IIIN
‡ Manual Includes
Class IIIM
Class IV
Class V
26
22
22
18
20
17
18
16
20
193
219
212
238
221
236
235
250
1,804
professional occupations
managerial and technical
skilled non-manual
skilled manual
partly skilled
unskilled
• ‘Other’ includes
Armed forces
Inadequately described occupation
Full-time students/independent means
No information on the father or his occupation
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study
CONCLUSIONS
Sole registered births and the mothers who register them show different
characteristics from other births. On average they occur to younger
mothers. Women who ever experience a sole registered birth are likely to
have begun their childbearing around four years before the average. Sole
registered births are less likely for multiple maternities. A stillbirth is
more likely to be sole registered than a live birth.
Caribbean and West African born women are likely to have a greater
than average proportion of sole registered births. Indian, Pakistani and
Bangladeshi women are least likely to register a sole birth. A further area
of study would be to examine whether the women who were cohabiting
or in close contact with the father, despite him not appearing on the birth
certificate, were from particular ethnic groups.
Nine per cent of mothers born from 1955–1962 had at least one sole
registered birth. Women who ever experience a sole registered birth are
likely to have a larger family than other mothers and they are also half as
likely to come from a family background with a higher social class.
Sole registered births have been taken as an indication of entry into
lone parenthood and absence of paternal involvement. The Millennium
Cohort Study has shown that while this simple conclusion is true for the
majority of sole registered births, for around one in twelve the mother
Autumn 2004
is cohabiting with the father and a further three in twelve have close
involvement with the father. It is not clear in these cases why the fatherʼs
name does not appear on the birth certificate. Possible reasons may
include lack of knowledge of the requirement for a father to attend or
provide legal evidence where a birth takes place outside marriage (see
Box one); a lack of desire for the father to appear on the birth certificate,
either by the father or the mother (or both); and, prior to December 2003,
the knowledge that having the fatherʼs name on the birth certificate made
no difference. Incidentally, during the 1990s there wre major changes in
legislation on child support. The formation of the Child Support Agency
in 1993 followed the introduction of the 1991 Child Support Act and
further changes in legislation followed with the 1995 Child Support Act
and 2000 Child Support, Pensions, and Social Security Act. It is not
clear, however, how trends in sole registrations may have been affected
by these changes.
ONS regularly publishes information about the registration status of
births,12 and the lack of a father on the birth certificate is important social
information. It will be interesting to see if trends in sole registration
change from December 2003 following the acquiring of parental
responsibility for fathers present on the birth certificate. Beyond 2005,
changes may occur to the statistics with the modernisation of the civil
registration system that will allow unmarried fathers to give birth
registration information separately in person, by telephone or over the
Internet. Any information given in this way would, as now, need to be
corroborated by a childʼs mother before it was recorded in a birth entry.13
Box one
Registering a birth outside of marriage
Before beginning a registration, the registrar establishes whether
the child’s parents were married to each other at the time of
the birth. If the informant is a parent the registrar asks, ‘Are you
married to the child’s mother/father?’ Where the parents have
been married to each other, but the marriage has ended since
the child was conceived, the child should be registered as the
child of that marriage.
If the birth occurred outside marriage the father can only appear
on the birth certificate in the following circumstances:
(a) Joint information provided by both parents present at the
registration
(b) Statutory declaration by the father countersigned by the
mother
(c) Statutory declaration by the mother, countersigned by the
father
(d) A Parental Responsibility Agreement (Section 4 of the
Children Act 1989)
(e) Appropriate Court Order (Section 4 Children Act 1989;
Para 1 Schedule 1 Children Act 1989; Section 4 Family Law
Reform Act 1987; Section 9 Guardianship of Minors Act
1971; Section 11B Guardianship of Minors Act 1971).
Categorisation of a birth outside marriage in
statistical analysis
In analysing births outside marriage two pieces of information
can be used. Firstly whether a father is recorded and, if so, his
address. Three categories of births outside marriage can then be
created:
Joint registration – same address
Joint registration different address
Sole registration.
25
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
REFERENCES
Key findings
• In 2003 in England and Wales 41.4 per cent of births
occurred outside marriage, 26.3 per cent were to
unmarried couples both living at the same address, 7.9 were
joint registered by parents at separate addresses and 7.2 per
cent were sole registered. Sole registrations are often taken
as indication of absence of paternal involvement, however
the Millennium Cohort Study shows that for one in twelve
sole registered births the mother is cohabiting with the
father and a further three in twelve have close involvement
with the father.
• In the mid-1960s over 60 per cent of births outside
marriage were sole registrations. By 2003, only 17 per cent
were.
• The proportion of all births that are sole registered has
remained at around 7 to 8 per cent in the last two decades,
but from 1998 has declined from 7.9 per cent of all births to
7.2 per cent in 2003.
• A stillbirth is more likely to be sole registered than a live
birth. Sole registration is less likely for multiple maternities.
• Nine per cent of mothers born in the years 1955 to 1962
experienced a sole registration.
• Mothers born in the years 1955 to 1962 who have ever
experienced a sole registered birth, began their childbearing
on average four years before the overall mean age at first
birth and were more likely to have a larger family than other
mothers.
• Mothers born in the years 1955 to 1962 who have ever
experienced a sole registered birth are more likely to come
from a family background with a lower social class.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author is grateful to Peter Goldblatt, Michael Rendall and Jessica
Chamberlain (all of ONS) for helpful comments on earlier drafts of
this article and to Kathleen Kiernan (then of the London School of
Economics now of University of York) for the provision of data from
the Millennium Cohort Study. The author also wishes to thank the ONS
Longitudinal Study team for the provision of the dataset used and their
help and support.
National Statistics
26
1. Moser K, Li L, Power C.(2003) Social inequalities in low birth
weight in England and Wales: trends and implications for future
population health. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
September 2003; 57(9), pp 687–91.
2. Pattenden S, Dolk H, Vrijheid M.(1999) Inequalities in low birth
weight: parental social class, area deprivation, and ‘lone motherʼ
status. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health June 1999;
53(6), pp 355–58.
3. Whitehead M and Drever F (1999) Narrowing social inequalities
in health?: Analysis of trends in mortality among babies of lone
mothers. British Medical Journal 318, pp 908–12.
4. Keirnan K and Smith K (2003) Unmarried parenthood: new insights
from the Millennium Cohort Study. Population Trends 114, pp
26–33.
5. Shouls S, Whitehead M, Burström B and Diderichsen F (1999) The
health and socio-economic circumstances of British lone mothers
over the last two decades. Population Trends 95, pp 41–46.
6. Haskey J (1999) Having a birth outside marriage: the proportions
of lone mothers and cohabiting mothers who subsequently remarry.
Population Trends 97, pp 6–18.
7. Ermisch J and Francesconi M (2000) The increasing complexity
of family relationships: lifetime experience of lone motherhood
and stepfamilies in Great Britian. European Journal of Population
Volume 16 (3), pp 235–249.
8. Collingwood Bakeo A (2004) Trends in live births by motherʼs
country of birth and other factors affecting low birthweight in
England and Wales, 1983–2001. Health Statistics Quarterly 23, pp
25–33.
9. Hattersley L and Creeser R (1995) Longitudinal study 1971-1991:
History, organisation and quality of data. Office for National
Statistics Series LS7. HMSO: London.
10. See Werner B (1984) Fertility and family background: from the
OPCS Longitudinal Study. Population Trends 35, pp. 5–10 and Babb
P and Hattersley L (1992) An examination of the quality of LS data
for fertility analysis LS User Guide 10. OPCS: London.
11. Rendall M (2003) How important are intergenerational cycles of
teenage motherhood in England and Wales?: a comparison with
France. Population Trends 111, pp 27–37.
12. See Office for National Statistics annual reference volume Birth
Statistics: Births and patterns of family building England and Wales
(Series FM1) – available at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/
Product.asp?vlnk=5768&Pos=&ColRank=1&Rank=256
13. http://www.gro.gov.uk/gro/content/aboutus/lookingahead/
index.asp#0
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
Estimates of true birth
order for Scotland,
1945–1999
Jessica Chamberlain and
Steve Smallwood
Population and Demography Division
Office for National Statistics
Over the last three decades
fertility in Scotland, as measured
by the total fertility rate (TFR),
has moved from being higher than
in England and Wales, to being
lower. The annual number of
births in Scotland has declined so
that in the mid-1990s low fertility
became the main driver of the
overall population decline that
Scotland has been experiencing
since 1974. Analysis of fertility
by birth order is instrumental in
gaining an understanding of past
and future fertility trends. Until
the rise in births outside marriage
in the 1980s data from registration
could be used as a proxy for true
birth order. However, because
birth order is not collected
for births outside marriage
true birth order now has to be
estimated. This article presents
the first official estimates of true
birth order for Scotland. The
construction of these estimates
based on a modified version of
the method used for England and
Wales is discussed. This article
also presents analysis relating
births by true birth order estimate
to the population of women by
parity on a cohort basis, and
makes comparisons with England
and Wales.
INTRODUCTION
Prior to the early 1980s Scotland exhibited higher fertility, as measured
by the total fertility rate (TFR), than England and Wales (Figure 1).
However, after the fertility decline of the 1970s Scottish fertility was
similar to that of England and Wales. Over the next two decades Scottish
fertility fell below that of England and Wales. The total number of
births registered in 2002 was 51,270; the lowest total ever recorded for
Scotland and the sixth consecutive year in which total births reached a
new low.1 Furthermore, since the mid-1990s the numbers of births in
Scotland have been so low that the number of deaths exceeds the number
of births, and so the population is experiencing natural decline. Even
though the number of births rose to 52,432 in 2003 this was not sufficient
to halt the natural decline.
Migration has always had an important role in population trends in
Scotland, with Scotland historically being a country of net out-migration.
However, since the 1960s the level of net out-migration has reduced
significantly, from around 30–40,000 people a year to around 10,000 and
below.2 Moreover in 1989–90, 1992–95, 2000–01 and 2002–03 Scotland
experienced net in-migration.
Scotland has in general had a declining population since 1974 and even
the recent reductions in migratory outflows have not reversed this trend.
For the majority of this period Scotland still experienced natural increase
and the falls were entirely due to migration (Figure 2). By the late 1990s
natural decrease became the main driving force in Scotlandʼs population
decline. Furthermore, the natural decrease that Scotland is currently
experiencing is not projected to reverse, according to the Government
Actuaryʼs Departmentʼs 2002-based national population projections.3 In
the United Kingdom both Scotland and Wales have recently seen natural
27
NNa taitoi on na la lS tSat taitsitsitci sc s
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Figure 1
Autumn 2004
Box one
Total fertility rate, 1966–2002
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Scotland and England and Wales
Total fertility rate (children per woman)
3.00
Censored – data that is incomplete because there is still a
probability of a member of the cohort experiencing the life
event being measured. In this context women who have not
yet reached the end of their childbearing years (age 45) are
censored.
2.50
Cohort – a specific group of people, in this case those born
during a five-year period.
2.00
England and Wales
1.50
Completed family size – the average number of livebirths a woman (in a cohort) has had either by the end of
the childbearing years, or by the latest data year available.
Completed family size can be calculated for all women or only
for women with children.
Scotland
1.00
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
Year
1991
1996
2001
Marital birth order – the number of a live-birth (first, second,
third etc.) counting only previous live-births to a mother inside
of marriage.
Partnership birth order – the number of a live-birth (first,
second, third etc.) counting previous births inside marriage and
births during cohabitation prior to marriage.
Figure 2
Natural change and net migration, 1951–2001
Parity – the number of children a woman has had, that is, a
woman with no children would have a parity of zero, a woman
who has had one child would have a parity of one, etc.
Scotland
50
Parity progression ratio – the probability of a woman moving
from parity x to parity x+1.
40
30
Registration birth order (RBO) – usually taken to be the
number of a live-birth (first, second, third etc.) recorded at
registration, based on the number of previous live-births to that
mother, counting only births fathered by current and previous
husband(s). However, note for work here that registration birth
order includes still-births, see the discussion in the Data section
of the text. Furthermore note that multiple births are given the
same birth order at registration. See Box two for further details.
Natural Change (Births–Deaths)
Persons (1000s)
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Total fertility rate – the average number of children a woman
would have if she experienced the age-specific fertility rates for a
particular year throughout her childbearing life. Calculated from
the sum of the age-specific fertility rates in one year.
Net Migration
-40
-50
1951–52
1961–62
1971–72
1981–82
Year
1991–92
2001–02
decrease and a declining population, although only for Scotland is the
natural decrease projected to continue for the 40 years of the projection
period. Between 1995 and 2000 only 24 of the 191 UN member countries
had negative population growth rates. The majority of these countries
were in eastern Europe and the Caribbean; there were none in western
Europe.4 Therefore it is important to analyse one aspect of the population
decline in Scotland; trends in Scottish fertility.
One key to understanding fertility changes is to determine trends in
fertility by birth order. If births by true birth order can be produced, then
in combination with population estimates, they can be used to produce
estimates of women by the number of children they have had (parity).
National Statistics
28
True birth order (TBO) – the number of a live-birth (first,
second, third, etc.) counting all of the mother’s previous livebirths. However, note for work here that true birth order
includes still-births – see the discussion in the Data section of
the text.
In particular, an estimate of the proportion of childless women in each
cohort can be produced. Statistics obtained from birth registration data
do not provide accurate information on birth order. When a birth within
marriage is registered the Population Statistics Acts of 1938 and 1960
instructs that the number of previous children born to the woman ‘by her
present and any former husbandsʼ should be recorded. This means that
previous births that took place outside of marriage where the father was
the womanʼs present or former husband should be included in the count
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Figure 3
Number of births inside and outside marriage,
1941–2002
Scotland
120
Inside marriage
Outside marriage
Live births (thousands)
100
80
60
40
20
0
1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Year
of previous births, but previous births where the woman never married
the father should be excluded. For births outside marriage no information
about birth order is collected. In Scotland, births outside marriage have
increased from 6 per cent of all live births in 1940 to 44 per cent of
all live births in 2002 (see Figure 3). Therefore birth order data from
registration does not accurately depict true birth order for births inside
marriage, and provides no information for the over two-fifths of births
that occur outside marriage.
This article attempts to calculate true birth order data for Scotland using
birth registration data adjusted with General Household Survey (GHS)
data. Estimates of true birth order in England and Wales using GHS
data have regularly been produced.5, 6, 7, 8 Similar estimates for Scotland
have never been attempted officially before. The sample sizes available
for Scotland in the GHS are smaller than those available for England
and Wales; therefore the calculation of births by true birth order had to
be carried out only on births aggregated into five-year age groups over
five-year periods. This broad aggregation meant that the method used to
calculate numbers of women by parity in England and Wales had to be
adapted. To check the effect of this adaptation the method was applied
to data from England and Wales and the results compared to calculations
made using the more detailed single age and year specific data. The
results of this check are shown in Appendices B and C. As the conclusion
from these comparisons was that the adapted method was reasonably
robust, analysis and comparisons of trends with England and Wales, both
for births by true birth order and women by parity, were then carried out.
DATA
Registration data
A regularly published dataset of births in Scotland from the Registrar
Generalʼs Annual Report was used in the construction of these
estimates.1 This dataset contains births within marriage by the birth
order recorded at registration and age of the mother. The data include
live- and still-births in the counts of previous births. Box Two gives
more information on the registration data and how they were used in this
analysis.
Autumn 2004
General Household Survey data
The family information section of the GHS collects information about
the birth and marital histories of women respondents in Great Britain.
Data were extracted only for those women interviewed in Scotland. Birth
history data from the 1986–1996, 1998 and 2000 GHS were combined to
construct factors used to adjust the birth order obtained from registration
data. Several yearsʼ worth of GHS data were combined to increase
sample sizes and reduce random sampling error.
However, the sample sizes in the GHS for births outside marriage in
Scotland are still very small and therefore any results based on these
adjustments should be treated with caution (including those presented
here). Overall a sample of 12,540 births were used from the GHS for
women born from 1930 to 1980 at ages 15–44. During the same period
3,408,360 births occurred to all women in Scotland. Appendix A contains
information about the sample sizes and sampling error for births outside
marriage within the combined GHS dataset that was used. Some of
the factors that were constructed were based on very small numbers of
births, and so judgement was used to smooth out large fluctuations in
the factors that were likely to be due to random sampling error. Most
of the problems were for high birth orders and births outside marriage.
Adjustments were made based on trends and data in previous years.
Box Three gives more information on birth order and the calculation of
adjustment factors from GHS data.
Box two
FURTHER INFORMATION ON REGISTRATION
DATA
The registration dataset used included live- and still-births in
the counts of previous births. Using a count only of live-births
increases the total number of first live-births recorded at
registration by around 1 per cent in the following work. Data
were available by individual age up to age 24, and then in 5-year
age groups, although the individual age data were not used
because of insufficient GHS observations to allow adjustment at
the single age level.
Multiple births are recorded with the same birth order at
registration, and this has been shown to distort birth order data.
This practice results in first births being over estimated and
higher order births being under estimated in registration data.
In England and Wales up to around 1980 this effect would have
reduced the numbers of first births recorded at registration by
about 1 per cent.7 Since then the number of multiple births has
increased, so the difference has increased and is now about 2
per cent. Thus for years prior to 1980 the effect of the inclusion
of still-births and the incorrect attribution of multiple births will
roughly cancel. It is harder to quantify what may have happened
since then, as although the proportion of ‘mis-allocated’
multiple births has risen the overall numbers of births outside
of marriage, for which no order is recorded, has increased
substantially. It was decided that, in the context of the other
uncertainties in the estimation process, no adjustment should
be made for either the issue of still-births or multiple births.
The former would raise the number of first births and the latter
reduce them.
29
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
It should be noted that the GHS and registration data used are not strictly
comparable, because the GHS data relates to mothers that were present in
Scotland at the time of interview and their reported births may not have
occurred in Scotland. The same situation exists for the calculation of true
birth order in England and Wales.
aggregated to produce factors to adjust births data in the same period.
Therefore, the cohorts discussed in this analysis are not estimates for that
single year of birth but are rather synthetic cohorts ‘centred onʼ the year
in question (the 1930 cohort is illustrated by the red diagonal line).
Population data
Figure 4
In order to estimate numbers of women by parity, at different ages
in different cohorts the mid-year population estimates of women of
childbearing age, by five-year age group were used.2
Construction of data for Scottish birth order
calculations, example of 1930 cohort
45
METHOD OF ESTIMATING TRUE BIRTH ORDER
Box three
40
35
Age
The analysis was performed using a similar method to that used to
calculate true birth order in England and Wales.7 However, the small
numbers for Scotland in the GHS data meant that no single year of
age calculations could be made. The GHS data was grouped so that it
corresponded with births in five-year age groups over five-year time
periods as illustrated in Figure 4. The grey shaded boxes show the
aggregated population and births data. For illustration, the first data
period, aged 15–19 in between 1945 and 1950 (that is, the 1930 cohort)
has been overlaid with parallelograms which represent the GHS data
30
25
20
BIRTH ORDER FACTORS AND THE USE OF
PARTNERSHIP BIRTH ORDER
15
1945
Birth order can be shown by a number of different definitions.
The various definitions used in this article are shown in Box
One, and for further information about the differences between
the various ways birth order can be measured see Box Two in
Smallwood.7 Birth order is recorded at registration for births
within marriage. However, the phrasing of the question asked to
record birth order at registration means the situation regarding
birth order statistics is complex. It asks for the number of
previous births to any current or former husband(s). Therefore
birth order recorded at registration includes previous births a
woman had outside of marriage with a partner she subsequently
married. This means that registration birth order is a closer
reflection of true birth order than marital birth order.
Information given in the GHS on cohabitation prior to marriage
was used to adjust registration birth order for births inside
marriage to partnership birth order. Partnership birth order
is closer to true birth order than registration birth order.
However, partnership birth order does not exactly match
registration birth order, because if the woman was not
cohabiting with her partner prior to marriage any births in that
period will not be included in the count of previous births.
Nevertheless using partnership birth order to adjust registration
data ensures the factors used to calculate true birth order do
not over adjust to higher parities (for more information see
Smallwood7). The use of factors based on partneship birth
order to produce true birth order from registration birth
order is important due to the increasing likelihood of a couple
having a child together prior to marriage. Making this change
has been shown to have significant effect on the true birth
order estimates. In England and Wales the use of partnership
birth order, rather than registration birth order, increased the
estimate of the overall number of first births in 2000 by 5 per
cent and reduced the number of second and higher order births
by 3.5 per cent.7
National Statistics
30
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
Calendar Year
Grey boxes – aggregated population and registration data
Parallelograms – aggregated GHS data
Red line – resulting estimated cohort
Once the data had been aggregated in this form, the GHS factors were
applied to births outside marriage to distribute them by true birth order,
and to births inside marriage by partnership birth order to estimate their
true birth order. The results for all births are presented in Table 1.
Table 2 compares the percentage distributions of births by estimated
true birth order and by registration birth order. Three periods have been
analysed 1975–79, 1985–89 and 1995–99. In the 1970s and 1980s about
two–thirds of births outside marriage were first births, compared to
two–fifths within marriage. In the 1990s the fraction of births outside
marriage that were first births fell to around one half. It is likely that
this is the result of a cohort effect, in which younger cohorts are more
likely to consider bearing children outside marriage as acceptable. Then
as these cohorts, with an increased propensity to have children outside
marriage, age they have second and third births outside marriage.
Therefore the percentage of births outside marriage which are of higher
orders increases and there are corresponding decreases in the percentage
that are first births.
In the 1970s the distribution of births by registration birth order was quite
close to the distribution of all births by true birth order. By the 1980s
registration birth order and true birth order show significant differences
in their distribution. These differences persist in the distribution of births
in the 1990s. However, in the 1990s the difference in the proportion
of births that are first births according to registration birth order and
according to true birth order decreased. This reflects the fact that births
within marriage over this period were more likely to be born to older
cohorts. None of the differences between the distribution of births
according to true birth order and registration birth order are greater than 4
percentage points.
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Table 1
Autumn 2004
Estimated number of births by true birth order and age of mother, 1945–49 to 1995–1999
Scotland
Year of registration
Age of mother at birth
under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
1st order births
1945–1949
1950–1954
1955–1959
1960–1964
1965–1969
1970–1974
1975–1979
1980–1984
1985–1989
1990–1994
1995–1999
17,338
16,979
21,760
28,375
36,333
36,429
31,224
28,518
26,655
21,625
20,085
71,758
80,182
80,710
79,618
71,543
55,799
57,395
54,633
42,123
30,090
44,884
40,095
36,388
37,148
38,643
38,446
46,226
48,370
32,537
14,353
11,521
9,069
10,155
12,484
15,720
23,594
26,995
3,943
2,834
2,090
2,655
3,534
5,732
8,121
720
444
379
275
711
1,098
26
15
14
13
36
2nd order births
1945–1949
1950–1954
1955–1959
1960–1964
1965–1969
1970–1974
1975–1979
1980–1984
1985–1989
1990–1994
1995–1999
1,688
1,994
3,103
5,459
8,210
7,867
5,212
4,809
4,378
3,710
3,111
37,256
43,973
52,043
53,267
47,398
39,800
39,269
31,834
24,178
14,607
51,531
52,964
48,413
46,664
48,261
48,348
43,661
44,389
38,733
24,395
19,616
16,479
18,034
21,451
24,560
30,898
34,245
7,003
4,838
3,489
4,273
5,256
7,142
11,041
858
557
289
770
906
1,429
16
16
11
31
41
3rd order births
1945–1949
1950–1954
1955–1959
1960–1964
1965–1969
1970–1974
1975–1979
1980–1984
1985–1989
1990–1994
1995–1999
186
229
313
918
865
907
543
266
173
76
45
12,885
15,072
19,236
18,668
14,890
9,152
11,069
8,472
6,950
6,680
30,134
35,162
31,888
25,427
19,505
19,277
19,789
16,860
14,754
22,971
19,803
13,926
13,404
15,846
13,745
15,139
16,373
8,188
5,061
3,704
4,801
4,983
6,099
7,172
1,047
579
608
507
755
909
27
21
16
18
29
4th order births
1945–1949
1950–1954
1955–1959
1960–1964
1965–1969
1970–1974
1975–1979
1980–1984
1985–1989
1990–1994
1995–1999
8
8
9
22
36
20
7
4
4
2
2
3,904
4,589
5,704
5,163
4,109
2,622
1,368
1,151
1,801
949
13,951
17,016
16,935
9,850
4,824
5,692
6,124
5,244
5,615
14,908
12,843
9,604
5,379
5,659
5,467
6,084
4,423
7,765
4,795
1,996
2,537
2,802
2,630
3,908
1,081
586
578
487
435
616
24
24
22
22
23
5th and higher order births
1945–1949
1950–1954
1955–1959
1960–1964
1965–1969
1970–1974
1975–1979
1980–1984
1985–1989
1990–1994
1995–1999
0
2
0
3
1
2
19
10
0
0
0
829
1,105
1,848
1,938
1,229
507
449
132
669
525
12,262
14,334
9,833
6,128
3,123
1,701
1,464
1,802
642
20,410
16,081
8,291
3,498
2,599
2,688
2,714
3,287
12,801
6,158
3,495
2,539
2,128
2,425
2,387
2,395
1,006
882
687
594
714
92
49
52
44
31
Note: Although these figures are shown to the nearest birth they should not be interpreted as having that level of accuracy.
31
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Table 2
Autumn 2004
Percentage distribution by true birth order of
births inside and outside marriage; percentage
distribution by true and registration birth order
of births inside marriage, 1975–79, 1985–89 and
1995–99
Scotland
Birth order
1
1975–79
All births
Births outside marriage
Births inside marriage
Registration birth order
1
2
3
4+
All births inside marriage
42.2
66.8
39.5
94.7
2
3
True birth order
35.2
14.3
16.9
6.8
37.2
15.1
4.2
96.2
0.9
3.4
96.6
41.7
Registration birth order
36.8
14.0
44.8
64.5
39.1
True birth order
33.6
14.5
21.3
9.4
37.2
16.0
Total births
(thousands)
4+
ages 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and 45. Age 45 was taken as the as the end of
childbearing, although women in the 1960 cohort at age 40 were assumed
for the purpose of this article to have completed childbearing. From these
estimates the proportions of women at each parity and parity progression
ratios were calculated, and compared to England and Wales. For more
information on how the populations of women by parity were calculated
see Box Four.
RESULTS FOR SCOTLAND
Birth distribution
8.3
9.5
8.2
327.8
32.3
295.6
0.2
0.4
3.4
100.0
123.4
108.8
41.2
22.1
7.5
295.6
Table 3 shows the percentage distribution of births in Scotland for
cohorts that have finished childbearing. The table shows that higher
order births, in particular fifth order and higher births, have declined as a
percentage of the total births to a cohort. Therefore as higher order births
have declined so the percentage of all births to a cohort that are lower
order births has increased.
Percentage distribution of births by true birth
order, selected cohorts 1930–1980
Table 3
1985–89
All births
Births outside marriage
Births inside marriage
Registration birth order
1
2
3
4+
All births inside marriage
1995–99
All births
Births outside marriage
Births inside marriage
Registration birth order
1
2
3
4+
All births inside marriage
94.7
4.6
95.7
0.6
3.7
94.5
7.1
4.8
7.7
328.4
73.9
254.5
0.2
0.6
5.5
100.0
105.0
94.0
38.7
16.8
41.3
Registration birth order
36.9
15.2
6.6
254.5
40.8
49.3
35.8
True birth order
35.4
15.8
27.9
12.9
40.0
17.5
7.9
9.9
6.8
291.3
109.2
182.1
0.5
0.0
1.5
100.0
72.7
70.4
27.3
11.6
6.4
182.1
89.5
39.9
9.0
94.0
1.0
6.0
98.5
Registration birth order
38.7
15.0
Registration birth order is based solely on births within marriage, and
therefore comparing this to true birth order within marriage gives an
indication of how well registration birth order reflects birth order within
marriage. The distribution of births within marriage by estimated true
birth order estimates is quite similar to the distribution of births by
registration order. One exception to this is in 1995–1999, where 40 per
cent of all births inside marriage were recorded as first births, however
only 36 per cent of births inside marriage were actually true first births.
Table 2 also shows the percentage adjustments made to the registration
birth order data for births within marriage to produce true birth order
for these births (the shaded sections). In the 1970s 5.3 per cent of births
recorded as first births had to be adjusted to a higher birth order, this
figure was 5.4 per cent in the 1980s. The equivalent figure for the 1990s
is nearly double, at 10.5 per cent. This rise is due to the increase in
women having one or more births outside of marriage followed by a birth
within marriage.
These true birth order estimates are the product of a weighted average of
the distribution of births within marriage and births outside of marriage.
The weighting has changed over the thirty-year period shown from 9:1 in
1975–1979 to 5:3 in 1995–1999.
Using the estimates of births by true birth order shown in Table 1 and the
population estimates for Scotland, estimates of the populations of women
at parity 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4+ were produced for each five year cohort, at
National Statistics
32
Scotland
Cohort
True birth order
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
35
35
37
41
43
43
44
28
29
31
33
35
36
35
17
18
17
16
15
14
14
9
9
9
6
5
5
5
11
9
6
4
3
2
2
1965
1970
1975
1980
48
51
66
86
35
34
23
13
13
11
9
0
3
4
1
0
2
1
1
0
Note: The shaded part of the table indicates cohorts that have not completed
childbearing and are therefore censored.
In these calculations data was only available up to age 40 for the 1960
cohort, however it was assumed that they had completed childbearing.
Any further childbearing to this cohort will have a negligible effect on
the results presented here. The 1965–1980 cohorts (shaded in grey)
have not finished childbearing and therefore the data available for them
is said to be censored, that is, it is incomplete as they could still have
further births. Therefore caution has to be exercised when analysing these
cohorts as future fertility behaviour will lead to changes in the fertility
measures.
Completed family size
Table 4 shows the completed family size for all women CFS(AW) and
completed family size for women with children CFS(WC), for cohorts
in Scotland and England and Wales (using age-specific data) that have
finished childbearing, and at censoring point (2000) for younger cohorts
(shaded in grey). CFS(AW) decreased with nearly every cohort that has
completed childbearing, and cohort fertility in both Scotland and England
and Wales fell below replacement level (roughly a CFS(AW) of 2.1) after
the 1950 cohort. CFS(AW) is larger in Scotland than England and Wales
for the 1930–1950 cohorts. However, the size of the differences between
Scotland and England and Wales decreased from the 1930 cohort to
the 1950 cohort. CFS(AW) in the two most recent cohorts to complete
childbearing was larger in England and Wales compared with Scotland.
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
Box four
CALCULATING POPULATIONS OF WOMEN BY PARITY
The principles of calculating populations of women by parity are the same as those used in birth order calculations for England and Wales.7
Populations of women, by age, at risk of an x order birth are constructed for cohorts and then the numbers of women at each parity is
changed to reflect the births by true birth order. The resulting proportions in each parity are then applied to the population at the next age
to age forward the population. The change in population because of migration and mortality is therefore assumed to have the same parity
distribution as the population as a whole. For more details see Box Three in Smallwood.7
However, because of the smaller amount of data available for Scotland calculations were carried out using blocks of births data, constructed
from five-year age groups and five-year time ranges. An appropriate population was constructed to match these data blocks. Populations
were calculated for each cohort at ages from 15 to 45 at five-year intervals. They were calculated as a weighted average of the population
at that age over a nine-year time range. With the greatest weight being given to the population in the middle year of the nine-year time
range (for example, 1945 in 1941–49). The population was constructed like this to ensure the at risk population that was used related to the
aggregate births data. If a five-year population had been used then the population at risk would only relate to half of the aggregate births. The
population was a weighted average because not all women were at risk of a relevant birth for the same amount of time. Using aggregated data
means women were at risk for between one and five years, and so are weighted accordingly.
Calculating childless women
First births to women aged 15–19 were collated over a five-year period and subtracted from the constructed cohort population aged 15. The
result was multiplied by the cohort population at age 20 divided by the population aged 15, to allow for population change through migration
and mortality (survivorship). This gave the number of women childless at age 20. For each subsequent age group the population of childless
women at the previous age point was used as the starting base population. The formula for this calculation is shown below:
Where:
Px = total population at age x
P0x = population at parity 0 at age x
B1x–y = 1st order births at age x–y
Sx–y = survivorship from age x–y = Py / Px
Up to exact age 20
(P15 – B115–19) x S15–20
Up to exact age 25
(P020 – B120–25) x S20–25
For the last age in later cohorts survivorship cannot be estimated, as it would require population data for years not yet available. However, as
this is the last age group ignoring migration and mortality will not have any cumulative effects on later age groups and therefore the effect of
omitting it will be small, as migration and mortality are low at these ages.
Calculating other parities
The population of women at parity 1 was calculated using the method shown below. The population five years before the age being calculated
was used as the base population at risk (for example, for up to age 20 the 15-year old population for that cohort was used), from which
births, change due to migration and mortality (survivorship) and populations at other parities were subtracted. To do this second order
births to women in younger age groups were adjusted for cohort survivorship, and then summed. Second order births for the age group
under consideration were also added but with no adjustment for survivorship. This population of higher parity women was subtracted from
the base at risk population, which was then adjusted for migration and mortality between that age and the one being calculated. This left the
population at the relevant age, however childless women at the same age were still included so they were then subtracted. This method can
be viewed as a chaining process, in which previous births and populations are chained along to calculate the current population.
Px = total population at age x
P0x = population at parity 0 at age x
B2x–y = 2nd order births at age x–y
Sx–y = survivorship from age x–y = Py / Px
Up to exact age 20
(P15 – B215–19) x S15–20 – P020
Up to exact age 25
(P20 – (B215–19 x S15–20 + B220–24)) x S20–25 – P025
Up to exact age 30
(P25 – (B215–19 x S15–20 + B220–24 x S20–25 + B230–34)) x S30–35 – P030
The same method was used for calculating the population sizes of women of parity 2. Third order births were used instead of second order
and the population of women of parity 1 were subtracted as well as the population of childless women. The populations of parity 3 women
were also carried out in the same manner but with adjustments for being the next higher parity.
The calculations of populations at the highest parity (parity 4 and over) were done differently. The starting population was those at the age
being calculated and then the populations of women of lower parities were simply subtracted from the population. This ensured that the sum
of the populations by parity equalled the total population.
33
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
Completed family size for all women and for
women with children; absolute differences in
completed family sizes between Scotland and
England and Wales, selected cohorts 1930–1980
Table 4
Cohort
Table 5
Percentage of women childless, selected cohorts
1930–1980
Scotland and England and Wales
Scotland
England
and Wales
Percentage point
difference
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
18.0
13.6
13.3
12.8
13.6
19.0
19.7
13.4
11.6
11.1
9.4
13.6
15.5
20.0
4.6
2.0
2.2
3.4
0.0
3.5
–0.3
1965
1970
1975
1980
26.1
48.7
68.6
87.0
26.5
42.8
68.8
87.0
–0.5
5.9
–0.3
–0.1
Completed Family Size
All women
Women with children
Scotland
England
& Wales
Absolute
difference*
Scotland
England
& Wales
Absolute
difference*
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
2.49
2.57
2.45
2.24
2.07
1.95
1.85
2.34
2.41
2.36
2.19
2.06
2.02
1.94
0.15
0.16
0.09
0.05
0.01
–0.07
–0.09
3.04
2.98
2.82
2.57
2.40
2.40
2.30
2.70
2.73
2.65
2.42
2.38
2.39
2.42
0.34
0.25
0.17
0.15
0.01
0.01
–0.12
1965
1970
1975
1980
1.58
1.02
0.48
0.15
1.63
1.10
0.52
0.15
–0.05
–0.08
–0.04
–0.00
2.13
2.00
1.53
1.15
2.22
1.92
1.67
1.16
–0.09
0.07
–0.14
–0.01
* A positive figure indicates that the measure is higher in Scotland than in England and
Wales, a negative figure indicates that the percentage is lower.
Note: The shaded part of the table indicates cohorts that have not completed
childbearing and are therefore censored.
Similar to overall completed fertility, CFS(WC) is greater in Scotland
than England and Wales from the 1930 cohort up to the 1955 cohort.
CFS(WC) shows larger differences between Scotland and England and
Wales than the CFS(AW) does, although the size of these differences has
declined over time. The greater differences between CFS(WC), indicates
that higher fertility amongst the older cohorts in Scotland was due to a
greater prevalence of large families.
For cohorts yet to finish childbearing (shaded in grey) CFS(AW) is larger
in England and Wales than in Scotland, with the exception of the 1980
cohort. The 1970 cohort shows an interesting result: CFS for all women
is lower in Scotland but CFS for women who have children is higher in
Scotland. We will return to an explanation of this later.
Childlessness and parity distributions
During the following analysis it is important to remember that the
aggregate data method used to calculate the results is not as accurate as
if the calculations had been made using single age data. Therefore the
differences shown in the following section may be an artefact of the use
of a cruder method, rather than real differences. The differences between
using age specific data and using aggregate data in the method used
here for cumulative cohort fertility are shown in Appendices B (by birth
order) and C (all orders), for England and Wales.
Figure 5 shows the proportion of childless women in selected Scottish
cohorts over the course of their fertile life. Figure 5 also compares data
for Scotland with England and Wales (calculated from age specific
data). Table 5 shows the percentage of women childless in a cohort at
the end of their fertile life, or at the censoring point in 2000 (shaded
in grey), for Scotland and England and Wales. Table 6 presents the
estimated percentage distribution of women by parity, cohort and exact
age for Scotland. The age definitions used in this table are different from
those used in the regularly published England and Wales table.3 Table
6 shows those at exact age 20, whilst the published England and Wales
table shows completed age, for example age 20 are those that have
completed being age 20. To enable comparison Table 7, which shows the
England and Wales figures, uses the same age definition as the Scottish
data in Table 6. Note that these England and Wales figures are from
individual age calculations. The differences between the estimated parity
distributions for Scotland and England and Wales are shown in Table 8.
National Statistics
34
* A positive figure indicates that the measure is higher in Scotland than in England and
Wales, a negative figure indicates that the percentage is lower.
Note: The shaded part of the table indicates cohorts that have not completed
childbearing and are therefore censored.
Table 5 shows that in Scotland the percentage of women in a cohort who
were childless at the end of their fertile life decreased with each five-year
cohort from the 1930 cohort to the 1945 cohort. Then from the 1945
cohort childlessness in Scotland increased. In the 1960 cohort nearly 20
per cent of women were childless towards the end of their fertile life, the
highest level of childlessness for all of the cohorts from 1930 to 1960.
Table 6 shows a large and steady decline in the percentage of women
who have had four or more births by the end of childbearing. A quarter
of the 1930 cohort were parity 4 or higher by the end of childbearing,
whilst under a tenth of the 1960 cohort were. Over time the percentage
of women who have had four or more live births has declined at all ages.
This trend of declining numbers of high parity women is associated with
the decline in both CFSs shown in Table 4. The percentage of women
who have had three births has fluctuated amongst the cohorts that have
completed childbearing. However, younger cohorts show signs of a
decline in the number of women reaching parity 3. For example, the 1970
cohort at age 30 has half the number of women of parity 3 compared
with the 1930 cohort at the same age. Over age 35 the number of women
with just two children has increased over time; this is likely to be because
women are having smaller families and are delaying their childbearing
compared with earlier cohorts.
Table 4 shows that the 1930–45 Scottish cohorts have a larger CFS, both
for all women and for women that have children, than the same cohorts
in England and Wales. In particular there are large differences of 0.34
and 0.25 between Scotland and England and Wales in the CFS of women
with children for the 1930 and 1935 cohorts respectively. Also Table
5 shows that the 1930–45 cohorts have higher levels of childlessness
in Scotland compared with England and Wales. In particular the 1930
cohort has the biggest difference in the proportion of women childless
between Scotland and England and Wales for any of the cohorts
that have reached the end of their fertile life. Figure 5 shows that the
Scottish 1930–45 cohorts had higher levels of childlessness than the
English and Welsh cohorts from early on in their fertile lives. Therefore
the larger CFS(AW) of Scottish cohorts is not due to lower levels of
childlessness, but due to a greater prevalence of large families. Table
6 shows that for the 1930–45 cohorts women in Scotland were more
likely to be parity 3 or higher and less likely to be parity 1 by the end
of childbearing, than women in England and Wales. This also means
that the main driver of declines in CFS(AW) in Scotland was a decrease
in the number of women reaching high parities, rather than increased
levels of childlessness. The combination of higher childlessness and
larger families indicates that fertility by birth order in Scotland in these
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Figure 5
Percentage of women childless by age and cohort, Scotland and England and Wales, selected cohorts 1930–1975
100
100
1930 Cohort
1935 Cohort
80
Percentage
Percentage
80
60
40
60
40
20
20
0
0
15
20
25
100
30
Age
35
40
45
15
Percentage
Percentage
60
30
Age
35
40
45
35
40
45
35
40
45
35
40
45
1945 Cohort
40
60
40
20
0
0
15
20
25
100
30
Age
35
40
45
15
20
25
100
1950 Cohort
80
30
Age
1955 Cohort
80
Percentage
Percentage
25
80
20
60
40
60
40
20
20
0
0
15
20
25
100
30
Age
35
40
45
15
20
25
100
1960 Cohort
80
30
Age
1965 Cohort
80
Percentage
Percentage
20
100
1940 Cohort
80
60
40
20
60
40
20
0
0
15
20
25
100
30
Age
35
40
45
15
20
25
100
1970 Cohort
80
30
Age
1975 Cohort
80
Percentage
Percentage
Autumn 2004
60
40
20
60
40
20
0
0
15
20
25
30
Age
35
40
45
Scotland
15
20
25
30
Age
35
England and Wales
35
National Statistics
40
45
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
Estimated percentage distribution of women by
number of live-born children, cohort and age,
selected cohorts 1930–1980
Table 6
Scotland
Cohort
Estimated percentage distribution of women
by number of live-born children, cohort and age,
selected cohorts 1930–1980
Table 7
England and Wales
Exact age
Number of live born children
Cohort
0
1
2
3
4 or more
Exact age
Number of live born children
0
1
2
3
4 or more
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
20
91
91
88
86
82
82
86
87
87
87
87
8
8
10
12
14
14
12
11
11
11
11
1
1
2
2
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
20
91
91
87
83
82
82
87
89
87
88
87
8
8
11
13
14
14
10
9
11
10
11
1
1
2
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
25
54
47
43
42
44
53
59
63
66
69
26
28
26
26
27
23
20
21
20
20
14
17
20
21
21
19
15
13
11
7
5
6
8
8
6
4
5
4
3
4
2
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
25
51
46
41
40
47
54
60
65
65
69
29
30
28
27
24
22
19
18
19
16
14
17
21
23
21
18
15
13
12
12
4
5
7
7
6
5
4
4
4
3
2
2
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
30
29
23
21
21
23
32
36
39
49
22
20
19
20
21
17
22
23
17
25
28
30
34
37
36
27
26
23
14
17
17
17
14
11
12
9
7
10
13
14
9
5
5
4
3
4
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
30
25
20
18
18
24
30
36
41
43
27
23
19
21
21
20
19
21
22
28
31
35
39
38
33
29
25
22
12
15
17
15
12
12
11
10
9
8
10
11
7
5
5
5
4
4
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
35
21
16
15
15
16
23
24
26
15
14
12
15
16
11
17
19
27
28
33
37
40
42
36
35
19
21
20
22
20
16
16
15
19
21
20
12
8
8
7
5
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
35
16
14
13
11
16
20
24
27
21
17
14
16
15
15
15
17
31
33
36
43
43
39
37
34
18
20
22
20
18
17
17
15
15
17
16
10
8
8
8
8
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
40
18
14
14
13
14
20
20
11
10
10
13
13
10
16
27
29
34
37
41
43
38
20
22
22
24
22
18
18
24
24
22
14
10
9
9
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
40
14
12
11
10
14
16
20
19
15
13
14
13
14
12
30
32
36
43
44
41
39
19
21
22
21
19
19
19
19
19
17
12
10
10
10
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
45
18
14
13
13
14
19
9
9
9
12
13
10
28
30
34
38
42
43
20
23
22
24
22
18
25
25
22
14
10
10
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
45
13
12
11
9
14
16
18
15
13
14
13
14
30
32
36
43
44
41
19
21
22
21
20
20
20
20
18
12
11
10
Note: numbers may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Note: numbers may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
earlier cohorts was more polarised compared with cohorts in England and
Wales.
the importance of looking at childbearing over the life course of a
cohort rather than at one point in time otherwise other differences in
fertility behaviour, such as the timing of the start of childbearing may be
missed. Differences in the timing of fertility behaviour are also evident
in the 1965 cohort. The Scottish 1965 cohort has lower childlessness at
younger ages compared with England and Wales, but by age 35 levels of
childlessness are the same.
For the 1950 cohort Figure 5 shows childlessness in England and Wales
was higher than in Scotland between ages 20 and 35, however by the end
of their fertile life the proportion of women childless was equal between
the two countries, at 13.6 per cent. The parity distributions and both
measures of CFS are also very similar for this cohort. This demonstrates
National Statistics
36
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Percentage point differences between
Scotland and England and Wales for estimated
distributions of women by number of live-born
children, selected cohorts 1930–1980
Table 8
Cohort
Exact age
Number of live born children
0
1
2
3
4 or more
+1
+1
+1
+3
+1
–1
–2
–2
–0
–1
–0
–0
–0
–1
–2
–1
+0
+2
+2
+0
+1
+0
–0
–0
–1
–1
+0
–0
–0
+0
+0
+0
–0
–0
–0
–0
–0
–0
+0
+0
–0
–0
–0
–0
–0
+0
–0
–0
–0
–0
–0
–0
–0
–0
–0
+3
+0
+2
+2
–3
–2
–2
–2
+1
–0
–3
–2
–2
–2
+3
+1
+2
+3
+2
+5
–1
+0
–1
–2
–1
+1
+0
+0
–1
–5
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
–1
+1
–1
–1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+0
–1
–0
–0
–0
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
20
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
25
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
30
+4
+3
+3
+3
–1
+1
–1
–2
+6
–5
–3
–0
–1
+1
–3
+2
+2
–6
–3
–4
–5
–5
–1
+2
–1
+1
+1
+2
+2
–1
+2
+2
–1
+1
–1
–2
+2
+3
+3
+1
+0
–0
–1
–1
+0
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
35
+5
+2
+2
+3
–0
+3
–0
–1
–6
–3
–2
–1
+1
–4
+3
+2
–4
–4
–3
–6
–3
+3
–1
+0
+1
+1
–1
+2
+2
–1
–0
+0
+4
+4
+4
+2
–0
–1
–1
–2
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
40
+5
+2
+2
+3
–0
+3
–0
–8
–5
–3
–2
+1
–3
+5
–2
–3
–2
–6
–2
+2
–2
+1
+1
–1
+3
+2
–1
–1
+5
+5
+4
+2
–0
–1
–1
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
45
+5
+2
+2
+3
–0
+4
–10
–7
–4
–3
+0
–3
–2
–2
–2
–5
–2
+2
+1
+1
–1
+3
+2
–1
+5
+5
+4
+2
–0
–1
Note: A positive figure indicates that the percentage in Scotland is higher than England
and Wales, a negative figure indicates that the percentage is lower.
The 1960 cohort at age 40 and the 1965 cohort at age 35 indicate that the
trend for Scotland to have relatively more women of parity 4 and over
and fewer at parity 1 by the end of childbearing is declining. In Scotland
5 per cent of the 1965 cohort at age 35 are parity 4 or higher, compared
to 8 per cent in England and Wales. So as well as showing evidence of
higher proportions of women being childless in Scotland there are also
signs of a move away from larger families. The polarisation of fertility
seen in earlier cohorts in Scotland appears to be declining. Although
Figure 5 shows that women in the 1965 cohort in England and Wales
Autumn 2004
have slightly higher levels of childlessness compared with Scotland the
1965 cohort have not finished their childbearing, and the graph indicates
that as in previous cohorts any difference may have disappeared once the
cohort has completed childbearing.
The 1970 cohort exhibits a strong divergence between Scotland and
England and Wales in the proportion of women childless after age 25.
This difference in parity distribution can also be seen in Table 8. The
difference at age 30 is nearly 6 percentage points, the largest difference
in childlessness between Scotland and England and Wales for any of the
cohorts examined here. The high level of childlessness in the 1970 cohort
explains the interesting result mentioned previously for this cohort. High
childlessness means that CFS for all women is reduced compared with
the CFS for women who have had children.
The proportion of childless women within the 1975 cohorts is similar for
Scotland and England and Wales. The 1980 cohort is not shown in Figure
6 because there is only 5 yearsʼ worth of data available from them. Their
current level of childlessness matches almost exactly that of the 1975
cohort.
Cohort Parity Progression Ratios
Table 9 shows cohort parity progression ratios (PPRs) for Scotland.
They indicate a decline in third, fourth and higher order births were the
largest component in Scotlandʼs fertility decline, from the 1930 cohort to
the 1960 cohort. The probability of proceeding to having a 4th or higher
order birth for women of parity 3 declined from 0.554 for the 1930 cohort
to 0.342 for the 1955 cohort, that is, from just over one-half of women
of parity 3 to just over one-third of parity 3 women. The probability of
moving from parity 3 to parity 4 or higher did not steadily decline over
time but dropped sharply from the 1940 cohort to the 1945 cohort. The
probability of moving from parity 2 to parity 3 shows a steadier decline
from the 1935 cohort onwards. The probability of having a first or
second birth remained quite level for cohorts that have completed their
childbearing (1930–1955). Indeed, the probability of having a first birth
increased slightly, by 0.04, from the 1930 cohort to the 1950 cohort.
Table 10 shows cohort PPRs for England and Wales, enabling a
comparison with those for Scotland shown in Table 9. Amongst cohorts
who have completed their childbearing, with the exception of the 1960
cohort, Scottish cohorts have a lower propensity to have a first birth, and
therefore a higher probability of being childless. Women in Scotland
had a higher probability of progressing from parity 1 to parity 2 and
from parity 2 to parity 3 than their equivalents in England and Wales.
Although the trends in changes in PPRs at higher orders are similar
between the two countries, PPRs for England and Wales do not fall as
rapidly as those in Scotland between the 1940 and 1945 cohorts. Thus
the higher fertility in Scotland for cohorts born in the 1930s was due to
women who had children having larger families. The convergence in
overall fertility for cohorts born in the 1940s was due to the faster decline
in larger family sizes in Scotland. The convergence was further supported
by the reduction in childlessness for England and Wales born women in
the mid-1940s.
The PPRs shaded in grey are for cohorts that have not yet finished
childbearing. These PPRs show some interesting differences, but
must be analysed with caution as the cohort data they are based on are
censored. For example the PPRs for Scotland and England and Wales
of moving from parity 3 to parity 4 are based on very small numbers for
these censored cohorts and therefore any discussion of their differences
is probably not robust. Women in the 1965–1975 cohorts in Scotland
have lower probabilities of moving from parity 1 to parity 2 than their
equivalents in England and Wales. Amongst the women who are still
within their childbearing years, the probabilities of moving from being
37
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
Cohort parity progression ratios, selected
cohorts 1930–1980
Table 9
Scotland
Cohort
Birth order
0–1
1–2
2–3
3–4+
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
0.820
0.864
0.867
0.872
0.864
0.810
0.803
0.893
0.898
0.893
0.867
0.852
0.875
0.798
0.616
0.614
0.566
0.500
0.434
0.391
0.415
0.554
0.527
0.503
0.370
0.315
0.342
0.328
1965
1970
1975
1980
0.740
0.513
0.314
0.130
0.741
0.673
0.351
0.155
0.366
0.326
0.366
0.014
0.259
0.340
0.141
0.045
Note: The shaded part of the table indicates cohorts that have not completed
childbearing and are therefore censored.
Table 10
Cohort parity progression ratios, selected
cohorts 1930–1980
England and Wales
Cohort
Birth order
0–1
1–2
2–3
3–4+
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
0.866
0.884
0.889
0.906
0.864
0.846
0.801
0.789
0.827
0.855
0.843
0.852
0.841
0.854
0.566
0.564
0.528
0.436
0.408
0.422
0.429
0.513
0.483
0.447
0.373
0.352
0.348
0.341
1965
1970
1975
1980
0.737
0.571
0.315
0.132
0.770
0.608
0.474
0.147
0.392
0.371
0.259
0.116
0.341
0.287
0.229
0.117
Note: The shaded part of the table indicates cohorts that have not completed
childbearing and are therefore censored.
childless to having a child are very similar for Scotland and England
and Wales, except for the 1970 cohort. Although the probability of
progressing from parity 0 to parity 1 for the 1975 cohort is similar for
Scotland and England and Wales, the probability of progression from
parity 1 to parity 2 is lower in Scotland than in England and Wales. This
difference is likely to be making a small contribution to Scotland having
a lower fertility (TFR) than England and Wales.
DISCUSSION
The results show that Scottish fertility used to be more polarised than
fertility in England and Wales. Scotland had higher levels of fertility,
as shown by CFS and the TFR, but at the same time higher levels of
childlessness prevailed in Scotland compared with England and Wales.
Changes in these trends start to appear from the around the 1950 cohort
onwards. The percentage of women having higher order births declined
and childlessness levels converged with those of England and Wales.
However, among cohorts soon to complete childbearing fertility patterns
have changed and differ from England and Wales. Childlessness is once
again greater among Scottish cohorts, but family sizes are also now
smaller in Scotland. Furthermore Joshi and Wright9 note that although
Scotland has fewer births altogether, these births are more spread across
the age range compared with the UK as a whole.
National Statistics
38
The polarisation of fertility behaviour in earlier cohorts compared with
England and Wales is an interesting finding. This cannot be explained
by the percentage of births occurring outside marriage, as they were very
similar between Scotland and England and Wales until very recently. One
possible explanation could be that a combination of marriage market and
fertility transition effects operated. There is evidence that the percentage
of women aged 20–34 never married throughout the 1950s and 1960s
was lower in Scotland compared with England and Wales. These women
correspond with the 1930–1945 cohorts, for whom childlessness was
higher in Scotland than in England and Wales. Since throughout the
1950s and 1960s only 4 to 6 per cent of births occurred outside marriage
in Scotland the lower rates of marriage in Scotland would correspond
with higher childlessness. The geography and economy of Scotland may
have meant that Scotland lagged behind England and Wales in the speed
of its fertility transition, so those women in Scotland who did marry and
have children were still having larger families compared with women in
England and Wales.
Graham and Boyle10 posited several reasons why Scottish fertility has
now fallen below that of England and Wales. They suggest current
housing market conditions may be presenting obstacles to family
formation, as young couple cannot afford family housing. They support
this with the fact that cities, like Edinburgh, where house prices are
particularly high have the lowest levels of fertility in Scotland. Graham
and Boyle10 also suggest that a lack of confidence in Scotlandʼs economy
may be acting to depress overall fertility. They state that Scotlandʼs
economy is smaller and less diverse in its range of employment
opportunities than Englandʼs, and therefore labour market conditions
(through income and job security) have a greater impact on fertility than
in England and Wales.
Another hypothesis may be the difficulties of combining work and
family. Increasing female labour force participation has in the past been
associated with decreased fertility, although over the last two decades
there has been evidence of the relationship weakening.11 Rindfuss
et al12 argue that one of the key differences between fertility in low
fertility countries is the differing institutional context and the ease with
which women can combine work and childrearing. It appears that the
association between high levels of female employment and low fertility
only persists in circumstances where combining childrearing and
employment is difficult. Of course Scotland and England and Wales have
almost identical institutional provisions in terms of employment law
and benefits. Therefore, if part of the reason for the current differences
in fertility between the countries relates to employment, it must either
relate to the type of work available, availability of childcare, information
about resources available or attitudes to combining employment and
childrearing. The Millenium Cohort Study showed more mothers13 in
Scotland were combining mothhood with part-time work compared with
mothers in the UK as a whole.9 Graham and Boyle suggest that Scotland
could be lagging behind England in terms of gender equality in the
home. Therefore greater pressures on women dealing with the combined
demands of work and family may be contributing to the difference in
fertility between Scotland and England and Wales. If this is so these
pressures may depress the numbers of mothers in Scotland going on to
higher order births.
There are also several other factors that could have contributed Scottish
fertility falling below fertility levels in England and Wales. There is
evidence of higher levels of education amongst women in Scotland
compared to the UK as a whole. In the Millennium Cohort Study
Scottish mothers were found to be more highly qualified than mothers
in the UK as a whole are. Compared to the UK as a whole a lower
proportion of mothers in Scotland had low or zero levels of qualification
(20 per cent versus 15 per cent) and a higher proportion had tertiary
level qualifications (34 per cent versus 37 per cent).9 Higher levels of
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
educational attainment are associated with women having children later
in their childbearing careers with the consequence that they are likely to
have fewer children in total.14
Another contributing factor could be that, compared with England and
Wales, Scotland has a smaller ethnic minority population. Information
on differences in ethnic fertility is not readily available. It is, however,
possible to estimate the effect of differential fertility for women born
outside the UK using population data from the 2001 Census and birth
registration data by country of birth of mother. Scotland has a smaller
proportion of women of fertile age born outside of the UK. At the
2001 Census 5.1 per cent of women in Scotland aged 15–44 years were
born outside the UK compared with 11.5 per cent for England and
Wales. The fertility of women born outside the UK is higher than the
fertility of women born in the UK, however the differential is smaller
in Scotland. Some caution should be used when looking at fertility
differentials of immigrants on a period basis, as work on French data has
shown that period differentials may be exaggerated by the relationship
between timing of births and migration.16 The combination of a smaller
proportion of non-UK born women and a smaller differential fertility
in Scotland mean that births to non-UK born women would explain
around 40 per cent of the difference between the Scotland and England
and Wales TFRs in 2001. On average ethnic minority women also have
a desire for larger families.17 This may also be part of the explanation as
to why the proportion of women that have three or more children is now
lower in Scotland than in England and Wales for cohorts born from the
mid 1950s onwards.
Recent assumptions for the national population projections have assumed
lower overall completed family size for Scotland (1.60) as compared with
England and Wales (1.75). The Scottish assumptions have been based
on analysis of births irrespective of their order. The results here, suggest
that Scotland has proportionately fewer births of higher orders. There is
also some evidence of greater levels of childlessness for women currently
in the midst of their childbearing period (women born around 1970). Of
course, these women may be postponing their births and it is possible
that their levels of childlessness may converge with those in England and
Wales. However, both the evidence of smaller families and higher levels
Key findings
• Women born in the 1930s in Scotland had higher completed
fertility compared with England and Wales. However, these
cohorts also had higher levels of childlessness. Therefore
Scotland’s higher fertility was due with a greater prevalence of
large families compared with England and Wales.
• The greater percentage of women at higher parities (three or
more) in Scotland, whilst also having cohorts with higher levels of
childlessness, shows early Scottish cohorts had polarised fertility
behaviour.
• From the 1955 cohort onwards, completed family size was
smaller for cohorts in Scotland than their equivalents in England
and Wales. The fall in fertility in Scotland was driven by a sharp
decline in the number of third and higher order births.
• Current cohorts that have yet to finish childbearing have a
smaller completed family size in Scotland and the 1970 cohort
in Scotland currently has a much higher percentage of childless
women compared with England and Wales.
• It is likely that Scottish cohorts currently childbearing will have
lower fertility than England and Wales, but they may be also
be displaying greater postponement of the commencement of
childbearing.
Autumn 2004
of childlessness are consistent with having a lower assumed CFS for
Scotland. Additional work is being considered by the General Register
Office for Scotland using other sources, including health services
maternity records, to validate and refine statistics on births by birth order.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We are grateful to Caroline Capocci of the General Register Office for
Scotland for the provision of an electronic data set of live-births by
registration birth order.
REFERENCES
1. General Register Office for Scotland (2003) Registrar Generalʼs
review of demographic trends. General Register Office for Scotland:
Edinburgh.
2. Components of change tables published in Population Trends
(currently Table 1.6).
3. Government Actuaryʼs Department/Office for National Statistics
(2004) 2002-based National Population Projections Series PP2
No.24. TSO: London.
4. http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2002/
wpp2002Appendix tables.PDF
5. Werner B (1986) Trends in first, second, third and later births.
Population Trends 45, pp 26–33.
6. Cooper J and Jones C (1992) Estimates of the numbers of first,
second, third and higher order births. Population Trends 70, pp 8–14.
7. Smallwood S (2002) New estimates of trends in births by birth order
in England and Wales. Population Trends 108, pp 32–48.
8. Office for National Statistics Birth Statistics Series FM1.
9. Joshi H and Wright R (2004) Starting life in Scotland in the new
Millennium: population replacement and the reproduction of
disadvantage. The Allander Series: Strathclyde University.
10. Graham E and Boyle P (2003) Low fertility in Scotland: a wider
perspective. The Registrar Generalʼs annual review of demographic
trends.
11. Billari F and Kohler H-P (2004) Patterns of low and lowest-low
fertility in Europe. Population Studies 58(2), pp 161–176.
12. Rindfuss R, Guzzo K and Morgan S (2003) The changing
institutional context of low fertility. Population Research and Policy
Review 22(5–6), pp 411–438.
13. Mothers in the Millennium Cohort Study all had a child aged 9–10
months.
14. Rendall M and Smallwood S (2003) Higher qualifications, first-birth
timing, and further childbearing in England and Wales. Population
Trends 111, pp 18–26.
15. http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/grosweb/grosweb.nsf/pages/file8/
$file/02t3-9.xls
16. Toulemon L (2004) Fertility among immigrant women: new data, a
new approach Population and Societies No. 400 Available at http:
//www.ined.fr/englishversion/publications/pop_et_soc/pesa400.pdf
17. Smallwood S and Jefferies J (2003) Family building intentions in
England and Wales: trends, outcomes and interpretations. Population
Trends 112, pp 15–28.
39
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
Appendix A
Table A1 shows the numbers of births outside marriage in the GHS
samples used, by age group and year of birth, related to the cohorts
used in this analysis. The table shows the small number of births that
were involved in constructing the adjustment factors for births outside
marriage. The table compares the percentage of the total number of
births in the sample that were born outside marriage to the percentage
Table A1
of all registered births in Scotland that were born outside marriage, to
check if the GHS fairly represents births outside marriage. Ten of the
45 percentages fall outside of their 95 per cent confidence interval, and
therefore indicate that the number of births outside marriage in the GHS
sample may not be representative of the percentage of births outside
marriage for those cohorts. This highlights that the adjustment factors
may potentially have led to some inaccuracy in the results.
Comparison of percentage of births outside marriage in the General Household Survey; sample and registration
data by age group
Scotland
Years
Cohort
Age
group
GHS data (1986–1995, 1996, 1998 and 2000)
Total Births
Birth registrations
Births outside marriage
Numbers
Per cent
Standard error of
percentage outside
Percentage
outside marriage
1950–54
1935
15–19
40
7
17.5
6.0
18.0
1955–59
1940
1935
15–19
20–24
82
468
10
26
12.2
5.6
3.6
1.06
14.3
4.4
1940
1935
15–19
20–24
25–29
147
704
546
20
32
11
13.6
4.5
2.0*
2.8
0.8
0.6
16.0
5.1
3.2
1945
1940
1935
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
201
761
605
293
27
41
13
5
13.4*
5.4
2.1*
1.7*
2.4
0.8
0.6
0.8
19.7
6.9
4.2
4.5
1950
1945
1940
1935
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
217
663
700
267
95
37
54
25
8
8
17.1*
8.1
3.6
3.0*
8.4
2.6
1.1
0.7
1.0
2.9
24.1
8.3
4.6
5.4
6.5
1975–79
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
192
578
634
289
71
18
48
54
18
11
2
5
25.0
9.3
2.8*
3.8
2.8*
27.8
3.1
1.2
0.7
1.1
2.0
10.6
30.6
10.1
4.5
5.2
7.8
10.3
1980–84
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
161
593
684
311
101
10
73
87
43
22
2
0
45.3
14.7
6.3
7.1
2.0*
0.0*
3.9
1.5
0.9
1.5
1.4
0.0
44.6
15.4
7.3
6.6
8.9
12.9
1985–89
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
126
458
608
317
94
12
84
116
74
43
11
2
66.7
25.3
12.2
13.6
11.7
16.7
4.2
2.0
1.3
1.9
3.3
10.8
69.4
29.0
12.6
10.6
12.9
15.5
1990–94
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
70
218
276
191
55
10
56
90
50
26
12
1
80.0
41.3
18.1
13.6
21.8
10.0
4.8
3.3
2.3
2.5
5.6
9.5
85.2
46.4
19.8
14.8
17.7
20.8
1995–99
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
–
33
66
67
23
2
–
21
15
19
8
0
–
63.6
22.7
28.4
34.8
0.0
–
8.4
5.2
5.5
9.9
0.0
93.7
64.4
29.9
19.9
22.2
27.4
1960–64
1965–69
1970–74
Notes
(1) Both GHS and registration data is Scotland based. Note that the figures are not strictly comparable as the GHS data relates to those mothers present in Scotland at the time of
interview. The reported births may not necessarily have taken place in Scotland.
(2) * Denotes outside sampling error (95% confidence).
National Statistics
40
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
remarkably good correlation, and give confidence that calculations can
successfully be carried out on grouped true birth order data to determine
proportions of childless women. However, it should be noted that the
accuracy of the grouped method is worst for completed cohorts.
Appendix B
An empirical test of the aggregate method using
England and Wales parity data
Figure B1(b and c) shows the comparisons of single age and single year
data and estimates from the grouped data method for the proportions of
women with one child and with two children. The estimates of women
with two children correspond quite well with the age specific data, apart
from the 1940 and 1945 cohorts. However, for women with one child the
grouped data does not show such a good fit with the single age data, in
particular with cohorts before 1960. This indicates potential inaccuracies
with the method that must be considered when analysing the results. The
actual percentage point differences between the estimates given by the
two different methods are shown in Table B1.
The use of five-year age groups and five-year time periods means the
method used in this article is potentially quite crude. To obtain an
indication of how well the method estimates the proportions of women
by parity the method was applied to England and Wales data where
true birth order estimates based on single age and single year data are
available.
Figure B1(a) shows the proportion of childless women in a cohort (at
the end of childbearing or when censored) estimated from single age
and single-year data and as estimated for selected cohorts using data
grouped as in the method described above. Overall the numbers show a
Figure B1
Autumn 2004
Comparison of proportion of childless women, women with one child and women with two children calculated
from age specific data and estimated from grouped data
England and Wales
(a) Childless
1.0
0.25
0.9
(b) One child
0.50
✕
(c) Two children
✕
✕
0.8
0.20
✕
✕
0.40
✕
✕
0.6
0.5
✕
0.4
✕
✕
0.15
✕
✕
✕
✕
✕
✕
✕
✕
✕
✕
0.10
Proportion
✕
Proportion
Proportion
0.7
0.30
✕
✕
0.20
0.3
✕
0.1
✕
✕
0.2
✕
✕
✕
✕
✕
0.05
0.10
0
0
✕
✕
0
1930
1940
1950
1960
Cohort
1970
1980
1930
1940
1950
1960
Cohort
Age specific data
Table B1
1970
✕
1980
1930
1940
1950 1960
Cohort
1970
1980
Grouped data
Percentage point difference between estimates using age specific data and grouped data of childless women,
women with one child and women with two children
England and Wales
Cohort
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
Childless
women
Women with
one child
Women with
two children
Absolute difference
in percentage
Proportional difference
(per cent)
Absolute difference
in percentage
Proportional difference
(per cent)
Absolute difference
in percentage
Proportional difference
(per cent)
–1.1
–0.1
+0.1
+1.0
–0.5
–0.3
–0.2
–0.5
–0.1
–1.8
+0.3
–8.1
–1.3
+1.3
+10.7
–3.7
–1.7
–0.9
–2.0
–0.1
–2.6
+0.3
–1.4
–1.0
–1.7
–0.7
–0.4
+0.9
+0.9
+0.2
–0.9
+0.9
–0.2
–7.7
–6.4
–13.4
–4.9
–2.9
+6.4
+8.1
+1.3
–4.0
+5.7
–2.2
+0.3
+0.6
+2.1
+1.6
–0.6
–0.3
–0.2
–0.1
+0.6
+0.6
–0.0
+1.1
+2.0
+5.8
+3.8
–1.4
–0.8
–0.4
–0.3
+2.7
+4.8
–2.2
Note: A positive difference indicates the estimate by the grouped data method is greater than the estimate given by single age data, a negative difference indicates the estimate by
the given grouped data method is smaller than the estimate given by single age data.
41
National Statistics
Po pul ati on Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
Appendix C
An empirical test of the aggregate method using
England and Wales data ignoring parity
Whereas Appendix B tested how the aggregate method performed
with respect to parity this Appendix investigates the overall effect of
aggregation, ignoring parity, on total levels of fertility. Table C1 shows
cumulative cohort fertility using single age and single year data and data
grouped by five year age bands over five-year periods, the grouping used
in the analysis. The table shows that the use of grouped data does not
appear to have large effects on results. There were no differences larger
than 0.04 between the single age data and grouped data results, and over
half of the differences were only 0.01 or nil to two decimal places. This
suggests that for overall fertility aggregation does not introduce any large
inaccuracies.
Comparison of cumulative cohort fertility calculated using age specific data and grouped data, Scotland and
England and Wales
Table C1
Scotland
England and Wales
from age specific data
by age:
20
1930
0.11
1935
0.11
1940
0.15
1945
0.20
1950
0.23
1955
0.23
1960
0.17
1965
0.14
1970
0.15
1975
0.15
1980
0.15
from age specific data
by age:
20
1930
0.10
1935
0.11
1940
0.16
1945
0.22
1950
0.23
1955
0.22
1960
0.15
1965
0.13
1970
0.15
1975
0.15
1980
0.15
25
0.78
0.94
1.09
1.01
0.97
0.80
0.69
0.58
0.52
0.46
30
1.64
1.90
1.99
1.85
1.62
1.43
1.29
1.15
1.00
from age specific rates and 5 yr 5 age group data
by age:
20
25
30
1930
0.01
0.77
1.63
1935
0.10
0.93
1.89
1940
0.14
1.06
1.96
1945
0.18
1.07
1.82
1950
0.23
0.98
1.61
1955
0.23
0.80
1.43
1960
0.17
0.70
1.29
1965
0.15
0.60
1.16
1970
0.16
0.54
1.02
1975
0.16
0.48
1980
0.15
35
2.24
2.41
2.37
2.14
1.95
1.79
1.68
1.56
35
2.21
2.40
2.33
2.12
1.94
1.78
1.69
1.57
40
2.49
2.57
2.47
2.24
2.06
1.92
1.84
40
2.45
2.55
2.43
2.22
2.05
1.92
1.85
45
2.53
2.59
2.48
2.26
2.08
1.95
45
2.49
2.57
2.45
2.24
2.07
1.95
Differences
by age:
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
25
0.76
0.87
1.05
1.06
0.92
0.77
0.68
0.59
0.58
0.52
30
1.55
1.78
1.89
1.77
1.54
1.42
1.31
1.18
1.10
from age specific rates and 5 yr 5 age group data
by age:
20
25
30
1930
0.01
0.75
1.52
1935
0.11
0.86
1.77
1940
0.14
1.02
1.86
1945
0.19
1.03
1.74
1950
0.24
0.94
1.56
1955
0.23
0.78
1.42
1960
0.16
0.67
1.29
1965
0.14
0.61
1.19
1970
0.15
0.58
1.11
1975
0.16
0.54
1980
0.15
35
2.08
2.24
2.24
2.06
1.91
1.82
1.74
1.63
40
2.30
2.39
2.34
2.17
2.04
1.99
1.94
45
2.34
2.41
2.36
2.19
2.06
2.02
35
2.04
2.23
2.21
2.05
1.91
1.82
1.73
1.64
40
2.26
2.38
2.31
2.16
2.04
1.99
1.92
45
2.29
2.40
2.33
2.18
2.07
2.02
35
0.04
0.01
0.03
0.02
–0.00
0.00
0.02
–0.01
40
0.05
0.02
0.03
0.01
–0.00
0.00
0.02
45
0.05
0.02
0.03
0.01
–0.00
0.00
Differences
by age:
20
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.00
–0.00
–0.01
–0.01
–0.01
–0.00
0.00
25
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.03
–0.00
0.00
–0.00
–0.03
–0.02
–0.02
30
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.00
–0.00
–0.02
–0.03
National Statistics
35
0.03
0.01
0.04
0.02
0.01
0.01
–0.01
–0.02
42
40
0.04
0.02
0.04
0.02
0.00
0.00
–0.01
45
0.04
0.02
0.04
0.02
0.01
0.00
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
20
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
–0.01
–0.01
–0.00
–0.01
–0.00
–0.01
0.01
25
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.03
–0.02
–0.00
0.01
–0.02
–0.01
–0.02
30
0.02
0.00
0.03
0.03
–0.01
0.00
0.02
–0.01
–0.01
Tables
Table*
Page
Population
1.1 (1)
1.2 (2)
1.3 (4)
1.4 (6)
1.5 (7)
1.6 (5)
International.................................................................................. Selected countries
National
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
Subnational ................................................................................... Government Office Regions
of England
Age and sex................................................................................... Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
Age, sex and legal marital status ...................................................... England and Wales
Components of population change ................................................... Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
44
47
48
49
52
54
Vital statistics
2.1 (8)
2.2 (new)
Summary....................................................................................... Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
Key demographic and health indicators ....................................... Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
55
57
Live births
3.1 (9)
3.2 (10)
3.3 (11)
Age of mother ............................................................................... England and Wales
Outside of marriage: age of mother and type of registration....... England and Wales
Within marriage, within marriage to remarried women,
age of mother and birth order ....................................................... England and Wales
58
59
60
Conceptions and abortions
4.1 (12)
Age of women at conception ........................................................ England and Wales
(residents)
61
Expectation of life
5.1 (13)
(In years) at birth and selected age............................................... Constituent countries of
.
the United Kingdom
62
Deaths
6.1 (14)
6.2 (15)
Age and sex................................................................................... England and Wales
Subnational ................................................................................... Government Office Regions
of England
63
64
International migration
7.1 (18)
7.2 (19)
7.3 (20)
Age and sex................................................................................... United Kingdom
Country of last residence .............................................................. United Kingdom
Citizenship .................................................................................... United Kingdom
8.1 (21)
Movements within the United Kingdom ...................................... United Kingdom
9.1 (22)
9.2 (23)
9.3 (24)
Age and sex................................................................................... England and Wales
Remarriages: age, sex and previous marital status ...................... England and Wales
Divorces: age and sex ................................................................... England and Wales
65
66
67
Internal migration
68
Marriage and divorce
69
70
71
* Numbers in brackets indicate former table numbers in editions of Population Trends prior to spring
1999 (No 95). Former tables 16 and 17 (Deaths by selected causes, and Abortions) now appear in
Health Statistics Quarterly.
Population Trends tables are also available in XLS or CSV formats via our website
http://www.statistics.gov.uk
Symbols
.. not available
: not applicable
–
p
nil or less than half the final digit shown
provisional
43
N a t i o n a l S t43
a t i s t iNc sa t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c s
Population Trends 117
Autumn 2004
Population and vital rates: international
Table 1.1
Selected countries
Year
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
United
Kingdom
Population (thousands)
1971
55,928
1976
56,216
1981
56,357
1986
56,684
1991
57,439
Austria
Belgium
Cyprus1
Czech
Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany2
Greece
Hungary
Irish
Republic
7,501
7,566
7,569
7,588
7,813
9,673
9,818
9,859
9,862
9,979
..
498
515
545
587
9,810
10,094
10,293
10,340
10,309
4,963
5,073
5,121
5,120
5,154
1,369
1,435
1,482
1,534
1,566
4,612
4,726
4,800
4,918
5,014
51,251
52,909
54,182
55,547
57,055
78,313
78,337
78,408
77,720
79,984
8,831
9,167
9,729
9,967
10,247
10,370
10,590
10,712
10,631
10,346
2,992
3,238
3,443
3,543
3,526
10,157
10,181
10,214
10,226
10,239
656
666
675
683
690
10,315
10,304
10,295
10,283
10,273
5,262
5,284
5,301
5,330
5,330
1,469
1,458
1,450
1,442
1,370
5,125
5,140
5,153
5,165
5,176
58,376
58,809
58,853
59,099
58,749
81,896
82,052
82,029
82,057
82,164
10,476
10,499
10,520
10,534
10,554
10,193
10,155
10,114
10,068
10,024
3,626
3,661
3,705
3,745
3,777
10,263
10,307 P
698
710
5,349
5,368
1,360
..
5,190
5,210
59,037 P
59,344 P
82,260
82,431
10,565 P
10,598 P
10,190
10,160 P
3,826 P
3,884 P
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
58,139 10
58,283 10
58,440 10
58,635 10
58,817 10
8,059
8,072
8,092
8,093
8,103
2001
2002
59,051 11
59,232 12
8,121
8,140
P
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
1.0
1.7
3.0
1976–81
0.5
0.1
0.8
1981–86
1.2
0.5
0.1
1986–91
2.6
5.9
2.4
10
6.3
3.6
1991–96
2.4
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
2001–02
2.7 10
3.3 10
3.1 10
4.010,11
3.111,12
2.5
0.1
1.2
2.2
2.3
P
3.2
1.2
1.3
2.3
4.3
P
P
10,220
10,200
p
p
P
..
6.8
11.7
15.4
23.5
5.8
3.9
0.9
–0.6
0.1
4.4
1.9
0.0
1.3
4.2
9.6
6.6
7.0
4.2
–12.4
4.9
3.1
4.9
3.9
3.8
6.5
4.8
5.0
5.4
4.6
0.1
0.2
–1.8
5.8
4.8
7.6
12.3
4.9
5.6
4.5
4.2
2.3
–1.5
–5.4
–3.0
16.4
12.7
5.8
–1.0
4.3
13.5
11.9
10.2
11.6
17.2
–0.9
–1.2
–1.0
–5.2
–2.0
3.2
5.5
0.0
3.6
3.6
–5.5
–5.5
–49.9
–7.3
..
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.7
3.9
0.7
4.2
–5.9
4.9
5.2
–0.3
0.3
1.3
1.2
2.1
2.0
1.3
1.9
1.0
3.1
–4.0
–4.5
–4.4
16.6
–2.9
12.0
10.8
8.5
13.0
15.2
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
Live birth rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
14.1
13.3
1976–80
12.5
11.5
1981–85
12.9
12.0
1986–90
13.7
11.6
1991–95
13.2
11.8
13.4
12.5
12.0
12.1
12.0
17.7
19.0
20.2
18.8
16.9
17.8
17.1
13.5
12.7
11.1
14.6
12.0
10.2
11.5
13.1
15.4
15.0
15.6
15.5
10.7
13.1
13.6
13.4
12.7
12.9
16.0
14.1
14.2
13.8
12.7
10.5
10.5
10.7
9.8
10.9
15.8
15.6
13.3
10.6
9.9
16.1
15.8
12.3
11.8
11.7
22.2
21.3
19.2
15.8
14.0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
12.6
12.5
12.3
11.9
11.5
11.0
10.4
10.1
9.7
9.7
11.5
11.4
11.2
11.1
11.2
14.5
13.9
13.1
12.4
12.2
8.8
8.8
8.8
8.7
..
12.9
12.8
12.5
12.4
12.6
9.0
8.7
8.4
8.7
9.5
11.8
11.5
11.1
11.1
11.0
12.6
12.4
12.6
12.6
13.2
9.7
9.9
9.7
9.4
9.3
9.6
9.7
9.6
11.0
11.7
10.3
9.9
9.6
9.4
9.7
13.9
14.4
14.5
14.2
14.3
2001
2002
2003
11.3
11.3
11.7
9.3
..
..
11.1
..
..
11.6
11.1
..
..
..
..
12.2
..
..
..
..
..
10.8
10.7
10.9
13.1
..
..
9.0
..
..
10.2
..
..
..
..
..
15.1
15.5
..
Death rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
11.8
12.6
1976–80
11.9
12.3
1981–85
11.7
12.0
1986–90
11.4
11.1
1991–95
11.1
10.4
12.1
11.6
11.4
10.8
10.4
9.9
10.4
10.0
10.2
9.0
12.4
12.5
12.8
12.4
11.6
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.5
11.9
11.1
12.1
12.3
11.9
13.9
9.5
9.3
9.3
9.8
9.8
10.7
10.2
10.1
9.5
9.1
12.3
12.2
12.0
11.6
10.8
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.3
9.5
11.9
12.9
13.7
13.5
14.3
11.0
10.2
9.4
9.1
8.8
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
10.9
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.3
10.0
9.8
9.7
9.7
9.5
10.3
10.2
10.3
10.3
10.2
8.5
8.8
8.0
7.4
7.7
10.9
10.9
10.6
10.7
..
11.6
11.3
11.0
11.1
10.9
12.9
12.7
13.4
12.8
13.4
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.2
9.0
9.2
9.2
9.1
10.8
10.5
10.4
10.4
10.2
9.6
9.5
9.8
9.9
10.5
14.0
13.7
13.9
14.2
13.5
8.7
8.6
8.5
8.5
8.2
2001
2002
2003
10.2
10.2
10.2
9.2
..
..
10.1
..
..
6.9
7.3
..
..
..
..
10.9
..
..
..
..
..
9.3
9.4
9.4
8.9
..
..
10.0
..
..
10.2
..
..
..
..
..
7.8
7.5
..
13
13
14
13
13
15
Note:
Estimated population, live birth and death rates up to the latest available date, as given in the
United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics (April 2004) The United Nations Demographic Yearbook
(2000 Edn) or Eurostat Yearbook 2003.
1 Government-controlled area only.
2 Including former GDR throughout.
3 The European Union consists of 25 member countries (EU25). The live birth and death
rates have been estimated by Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU.
4 Including the Indian held part of Jammu and Kashmir, the final status of which has not yet
been determined.
5 Rates are based on births to or deaths of Japanese nationals only.
6 Excludes Hong Kong.
7 Estimate prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
National Statistics
44
P
P
8 Includes Hong Kong.
9 Rate is for 1990–1995.
10 These are interim revised population estimates for the UK, which were released on 23
October 2003. The interim revised estimates are subject to revision.
11 Mid-2001 UK population estimates were updated on 4 November 2003 to take account of
the provisional results from the Manchester matching exercise.
12 Mid-2002 UK population estimates were updated on 27 January 2004.
13 Based on the revised mid-2001 and mid-2002 population estimates released on
26 September 2003. They do not take account of the provisional results of the Manchester
matching exercise or the minor revisions to the 2002 estimates published on 27 January
2004.
14 Based on the 2002-based Population Projection for 2003.
15 Based on the revised mid-2002 population estimate published on 27 January 2004.
p Provisional.
Population Trends 117
Population and vital rates: international
Table 1.1
continued
Selected countries
Year
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
United
Kingdom
Population (thousands)
1971
55,928
1976
56,216
1981
56,357
1986
56,684
1991
57,439
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
58,139
58,283
58,440
58,635
58,817
10
2001
2002
59,051
59,232
11
10
10
10
10
12
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxem–
bourg
Malta
54,073
55,718
56,502
56,596
56,751
2,366
2,465
2,515
2,588
2,662
3,160
3,315
3,422
3,560
3,742
342
361
365
368
387
330
330
322
344
358
57,380
57,523
57,588
57,646
57,680
2,491
2,469
2,449
2,432
2,370
3,710
3,706
3,702
3,700
3,500
416
421
426
432
436
57,844
58,018
P
2,360
2,340
P
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
1.0
6.1
8.4
1976–81
0.5
2.8
4.1
1981–86
1.2
0.3
5.8
1986–91
2.6
0.5
5.7
10
2.2
–12.8
1991–96
2.4
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
2001–02
Autumn 2004
2.7 10
3.3 10
3.1 10
4.010,11
3.111,12
1.1
1.0
0.6
2.8
3.0
P
–8.1
–6.9
–25.5
–4.2
–8.5
P
3,480
3,470
P
441
446
P
Nether–
lands
EU–253
Poland
Portugal
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
13,194
13,774
14,247
14,572
15,070
32,800
34,360
35,902
37,456
38,245
8,644
9,356
9,851
10,011
9,871
4,540
4,764
4,996
5,179
5,283
1,732
1,809
1,910
1,975
2,002
34,216
36,118
37,741
38,536
38,920
8,098
8,222
8,320
8,370
8,617
..
420,258
428,563
433,555
440,927
373
376
377
379
390
15,531
15,611
15,707
15,812
15,864
38,618
38,650
38,666
38,654
38,646
9,927
9,946
9,968
9,990
10,198
5,374
5,383
5,391
5,395
5,400
1,991
1,987
1,983
1,986
1,988
39,280
39,350
39,450
39,630
39,733
8,841
8,846
8,851
8,861
8,861
447,681
448,832
449,399
450,277
450,332
390
..
15,987
16,100
8,883
8,909
451,910
..
P
38,640
38,620
P
10,263
10,336
P
5,380
5,380
P
1,990
2,000
P
40,122
40,409
P
9.8
6.5
8.1
10.2
–1.7
10.7
2.5
1.8
10.2
14.9
0.0
–4.8
13.7
8.1
8.4
8.8
6.9
4.6
6.8
6.1
9.5
9.0
8.7
4.2
2.0
16.5
10.6
3.2
–2.8
1.1
9.9
9.7
7.3
4.0
3.4
8.9
11.2
6.8
2.7
–1.1
11.1
9.0
4.2
2.0
1.8
3.1
2.4
1.2
5.9
5.2
..
4.0
2.3
3.4
3.1
–1.1
–0.5
–54.1
–5.7
–2.9
11.9
14.1
9.3
11.5
11.3
2.7
5.3
29.0
0.0
..
6.1
6.7
3.3
7.8
7.1
0.4
–0.3
–0.2
–0.2
–0.5
2.2
2.2
20.8
6.4
7.1
1.5
0.7
0.9
–3.7
0.0
–2.0
1.5
1.0
1.0
5.0
2.5
4.6
2.6
9.8
7.2
0.6
1.1
0.0
2.5
2.9
1.3
2.0
0.1
3.5
..
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
Live birth rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
14.1
16.0
14.4
1976–80
12.5
12.6
13.9
1981–85
12.9
10.6
15.2
1986–90
13.7
9.8
15.3
1991–95
13.2
9.6
10.8
16.4
15.4
16.0
15.8
13.1
11.6
11.2
11.6
12.2
13.3
17.5
17.0
15.3
16.0
14.0
14.9
12.6
12.2
12.8
12.8
17.9
19.3
19.0
15.5
12.9
20.3
17.9
14.5
11.9
11.4
19.7
20.3
18.0
15.8
13.3
16.4
16.3
14.2
12.3
10.0
19.2
17.1
12.8
10.8
9.8
13.5
11.6
11.3
13.2
13.3
..
..
..
..
..
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
12.6
12.5
12.3
11.9
11.5
2001
2002
2003
11.3
11.3
11.7
9.2
9.4
9.3
9.3
9.4
7.9
7.6
7.5
8.0
..
10.5
10.2
10.0
9.8
9.3
13.7
13.1
12.6
13.0
13.1
13.5
13.1
12.2
11.4
10.8
12.2
12.3
12.7
12.7
13.0
11.1
10.7
10.2
9.9
9.8
11.1
11.4
11.4
11.6
11.8
11.2
11.0
10.7
10.4
10.2
9.4
9.1
9.0
8.8
..
9.2
9.4
9.3
9.6
9.8
10.8
10.2
10.1
10.0
10.2
10.8
10.7
10.5
–10.5
10.6
9.3
9.3
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
12.4
12.1
..
..
..
..
12.6
12.6
12.4
..
..
..
10.8
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
10.3
..
..
10.4
10.3
..
Death rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
11.8
9.8
1976–80
11.9
9.7
1981–85
11.7
9.5
1986–90
11.4
9.4
1991–95
11.1
9.7
11.6
12.6
12.8
12.4
14.8
9.0
10.1
10.6
10.3
12.0
12.2
11.5
11.2
10.5
9.8
9.0
9.0
8.2
7.4
7.6
8.3
8.1
8.3
8.5
8.8
8.4
9.2
9.6
10.0
10.2
11.0
10.1
9.6
9.6
10.4
9.4
9.8
10.1
10.1
9.9
10.0
9.8
10.3
9.6
9.7
8.5
8.0
7.7
8.2
8.7
10.5
10.9
11.0
11.1
10.9
..
..
..
..
..
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
10.9
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.3
9.6
9.8
10.0
9.9
9.7
13.8
13.6
14.0
13.5
..
11.6
11.1
11.0
10.8
10.5
9.4
9.4
9.1
8.8
8.6
7.4
7.7
8.1
8.2
7.6
8.9
8.7
8.8
8.9
8.8
10.0
9.8
9.7
9.9
9.5
10.8
10.6
10.7
10.8
10.6
9.8
9.5
9.7
9.9
9.7
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.5
..
8.9
8.9
9.2
9.1
9.1
10.6
10.5
10.5
10.7
10.5
10.1
10.0
10.0
10.0
9.8
2001
2002
2003
10.2
10.2
10.2
9.6
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
7.2
8.5
..
..
..
..
8.8
8.9
8.7
..
..
..
10.4
..
..
9.8
..
..
..
..
..
8.9
..
..
10.5
..
..
9.7
9.8
..
13
13
14
13
13
15
See notes on first page of table.
45
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Table 1.1
continued
Autumn 2004
Population and vital rates: international
Selected countries
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
Year
United
Kingdom
Population (thousands)
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,684
57,439
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
58,139
58,283
58,440
58,635
58,817
10
2001
2002
59,051
59,232
11
10
10
10
10
12
3
EU–25
2001
2002
2003
11.3
11.3
11.7
13
13
14
10.9
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.3
2001
2002
2003
10.2
10.2
10.2
207,661
218,035
229,958
240,680
252,639
1,223,890 6
1,236,260 6
1,248,100 6
1,259,090 6
1,275,130 7,8,P
939,540
955,220
970,933
986,611
1,002,142
125,761
126,065
126,400
126,630
126,840
265,463
268,008
270,300
272,691
275,260
1,285,230 7,8,P
1,294,870 7,8,P
1,017,540
1,033,000
23.9
18.8
27.3
22.1
20.6
15.1
8.5
6.4
3.8
2.9
10.0
10.9
9.3
9.9
10.2
16.4
16.1
15.7
15.4
15.2
2.7
1.8
1.7
2.3
2.1
8.6
8.8
9.4
34.7
21.9 P
China
..
420,258
428,563
433,555
440,927
130,934
135,027
139,225
144,154
148,245
13,067
14,033
14,923
16,018
17,284
22,026
23,517
24,900
26,204
28,031
2,899
3,163
3,195
3,317
3,477
852,290
937,170
1,008,460
1,086,733
1,170,100
447,681
448,832
449,399
450,277
450,332
147,739
147,105
146,540
145,940
145,560
18,311
18,524
18,730
18,940
19,160
29,610
29,910
30,160
30,400
30,690
3,714
3,761
3,792
3,811
3,831
451,910
..
143,950
144,080 7P
19,390
19,710
31,020
31,360
3,850 P
3,940 P
P
India4
6
6
6
6
6
..
4.0
2.3
3.4
3.1
6.3
6.2
7.1
5.7
–0.7
14.8
12.7
14.7
15.8
11.9
13.5
11.8
10.5
13.9
11.3
18.2
2.0
7.6
9.6
13.6
19.9
15.2
15.5
15.3
9.2
6
1.3
2.0
0.1
3.5
..
–3.8
–4.1
–2.6
–11.1
0.9
11.1
11.2
11.6
12.0
16.5
8.4
8.0
9.5
10.8
11.0
8.2
5.0
5.2
5.0
23.4
9.6
8.8
12.7
7.9
7.5
6
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
10.2
18.8
15.7
15.6
15.1
..
15.9
15.5
15.1
14.8
..
20.4
16.8
15.8
17.1
..
27.2
18.6
19.2
..
18.5
10.8
10.8
10.7 6
..
10.8 6
8.8
8.6
8.8
8.3
6.7
13.9
13.6
13.3
13.1
13.0
12.3
11.6
11.3
11.0
10.8
15.4
15.4
14.6
15.0
14.8
9.8
9.1
8.1
7.8
8.1
6
10.6 6
..
..
9.1
..
..
12.7
12.7
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
7.2
7.1
..
8
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
13.7
8.2
7.6
7.3
7.2
..
7.4
7.2
7.0
7.3
..
8.4
8.2
8.1
8.2
..
7.3
6.6
6.7
..
..
6
10.1
10.0
10.0
10.0
9.8
14.1
13.7
13.6
14.7
15.3
7.0
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.7
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.3
6.9
7.4
7.0
5.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.1
6
9.7
9.8
..
15.6
..
..
6.6
6.8
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
5.0
5.0
..
8
Death rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
11.8
1976–80
11.9
1981–85
11.7
1986–90
11.4
1991–95
11.1
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
105,145
113,094
117,902
121,672
123,964
New
Zealand
Live birth rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
14.1
1976–80
12.5
1981–85
12.9
1986–90
13.7
1991–95
13.2
12.6
12.5
12.3
11.9
11.5
551,311
617,248
675,185
767,199
851,897
Canada
2.7 10
3.3 10
3.1 10
4.010,11
3.111,12
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
USA
Australia
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
1.0
1976–81
0.5
1981–86
1.2
1986–91
2.6
1991–96
2.4 10
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
2001–02
Japan5
Russian
Federation
13
13
15
See notes on first page of table.
National Statistics
46
P
P
P
P
6
6
6
6
6
8P
8P
8P
6
6
6
6,9
8
8
8
8
8
6
6
8
8
8
8
8
P
P
P
P
127,130
127,400
P
P
P
P
284,800
291,040 7P
35.6
33.4
..
..
..
18.6
14.9
12.6
10.6
..
15.3
15.2
15.7
16.0
..
27.3
..
26.2
..
..
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.3
9.4
14.7
14.5
14.6
14.5
14.7
..
..
..
9.4
..
..
14.1
..
..
15.5
13.8
..
..
..
6.4
6.1
6.1
6.4
..
9.1
8.7
8.6
8.7
..
8.9
..
9.0
..
..
7.1
7.2
7.4
7.8
7.6.
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.8
8.7
..
..
..
7.6
..
..
8.5
..
..
Population Trends 117
Table 1.2
Autumn 2004
Population: national
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Mid-year
Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution
United
Kingdom
Great
Britain
England
and Wales
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
Estimates
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,684
57,439
54,388
54,693
54,815
55,110
55,831
49,152
49,459
49,634
49,999
50,748
46,412
46,660
46,821
47,188
47,875
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,811
2,873
5,236
5,233
5,180
5,112
5,083
1,540
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
19933
19943
19953
19963
19973
57.711
57,855
58,005
58,139
58,283
56,075
56,211
56,356
56,478
56,612
50,983
51,109
51,252
51,385
51,528
48,101
48,223
48,365
48,496
48,636
2,882
2,886
2,887
2,889
2,892
5,092
5,102
5,104
5,092
5,083
1,636
1,644
1,649
1,662
1,671
19983
19993
20003
20014
20024
58,440
58,635
58,817
59,051
59,232
56.762
56,956
57,134
57,362
57,535
51,685
51,884
52,071
52,297
52,480
48,789
48,987
49,167
49,390
49,562
2,896
2,897
2,904
2,908
2,919
5,077
5,072
5,063
5,064
5,055
1,678
1,679
1,683
1,689
1,697
5.8
14.1
40.3
21.5
10.9
7.5
5.7
14.0
40.2
21.5
10.9
7.6
5.8
14.1
40.2
21.5
10.8
7.6
5.8
14.1
40.4
21.4
10.8
7.6
5.6
14.4
37.5
22.4
11.8
8.4
5.3
13.6
40.2
22.1
11.6
7.2
6.6
16.5
41.6
19.6
9.6
6.1
59,995
61,022
62,134
63,239
58,274
59,271
60,351
61,428
53,252
54,287
55,402
56,517
50,310
51,315
52,396
53,478
2,942
2,971
3,006
3,038
5,022
4,984
4,949
4,911
1,720
1,751
1,782
1,811
5.6
11.9
36.1
26.2
10.5
9.7
5.6
11.9
36.1
26.2
10.5
9.7
5.6
12.0
36.2
26.1
10.4
9.6
5.6
12.0
36.3
26.1
10.3
9.6
5.4
12.1
33.9
26.0
11.9
10.7
5.0
10.8
34.4
28.0
11.6
10.2
6.0
13.1
37.1
25.9
9.6
8.4
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
Projections1
2006
2011
2016
2021
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–642
65–742
75 and over
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 National projections based on mid-2002 population estimates published on 4 November 2003.
2 Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes.
3 These are interim revised population estimates for the UK, GB, England and Wales, England, and Wales which were released on 23 October 2003. The interim revised estimates are subject
to revision.
4 Mid-2001 UK, England and Wales, and England population estimates were updated on 4 November 2003 to take account of the provisional results from the Manchester matching exercise.
Mid-2002 population estimates are those published on 27 January 2004. These may not be the estimates used as the denominators in the production of rates shown in some tables. Where
rates are shown, footnotes to each table specify which population estimates have been used.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
47
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Table 1.3
Autumn 2004
Population: subnational
Government Office Regions of England1
Mid-year
Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution
North
East
North
West
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
South
West
Estimates
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
2,679
2,671
2,636
2,594
2,587
7,108
7,043
6,940
6,833
6,843
4,902
4,924
4,918
4,884
4,936
3,652
3,774
3,853
3,908
4,011
5,146
5,178
5,187
5,180
5,230
4,454
4,672
4,854
4,999
5,121
7,529
7,089
6,806
6,774
6,829
6,830
7,029
7,245
7,468
7,629
4,112
4,280
4,381
4,548
4,688
19935
19945
19955
19965
19975
2,589
2,582
2,573
2,564
2,554
6,836
6,823
6,809
6,787
6,769
4,955
4,958
4,957
4,954
4,951
4,053
4,070
4,089
4,105
4,116
5,246
5,248
5,255
5,260
5,261
5,152
5,177
5,205
5,236
5,270
6,832
6,844
6,860
6,901
6,928
7,672
7,711
7,764
7,805
7,857
4,729
4,753
4,778
4,789
4,819
19985
19995
20005
20016
20027
2,544
2,531
2,523
2,519
2,513
6,762
6,738
6,737
6,767
6,771
4,950
4,947
4,950
4,971
4,983
4,125
4,144
4,157
4,183
4,215
5,267
5,265
5,260
5,283
5,304
5,306
5,341
5,375
5,401
5,420
6,969
7,041
7,104
7,308
7,355
7,891
7,955
7,982
8,021
8,038
4,843
4,874
4,909
4,937
4,961
5.3
14.1
39.1
22.2
11.8
7.6
5.7
14.6
39.3
21.7
11.2
7.4
5.7
14.5
39.5
21.6
11.1
7.6
5.6
14.2
39.3
22.3
11.0
7.6
5.9
14.6
39.3
21.7
11.1
7.5
5.8
14.1
38.7
22.2
11.2
7.9
6.4
13.1
48.6
17.8
8.3
5.7
5.7
14.0
39.3
22.0
10.8
8.1
5.3
13.5
36.9
22.8
12.1
9.3
2,579
2,555
2,536
2,521
2,509
6,871
6,843
6,820
6,813
6,808
5,071
5,098
5,130
5,165
5,200
4,234
4,312
4,384
4,455
4,523
5,343
5,358
5,372
5,391
5,411
5,448
5,582
5,702
5,823
5,941
7,215
7,337
7,470
7,609
7,736
8,134
8,344
8,534
8,722
8,905
4,977
5,098
5,213
5,333
5,452
5.4
12.1
35.1
27.7
11.2
8.4
5.7
12.4
35.4
27.5
10.6
8.4
5.6
12.2
35.9
27.3
10.6
8.4
5.4
12.0
35.1
27.4
11.1
9.0
5.7
12.5
34.9
27.3
10.7
8.9
5.5
12.1
34.5
27.2
11.2
9.5
6.4
12.5
41.5
26.3
7.7
5.6
5.4
12.1
34.9
27.4
10.9
9.3
4.9
11.2
32.8
27.8
12.4
10.8
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
Projections2
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
of which (percentages)4
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–643
65–743
75 and over
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 From 1 April 2002 there are four Directorates of Health and Social Care (DHSCs) within the Department of Health. The GORs sit within the DHSCs as follows: North East, North West,
Yorkshire and The Humber GORs are within North DHSC, East Midlands, West Midlands and East GORs are within Midlands and Eastern DHSC, London GOR equates to London DHSC
and South East and South West GORs are within South DHSC. See ‘In brief’ Health Statistics Quarterly number 15 for further details of changes to Health Areas.
2 These projections are based on the mid-1996 population estimates and are consistent with the 1996-based national projections produced by the Government Actuary’s Department.
3 Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes.
4 The percentages shown in this table are correct and show the proportion in each age group for 2021. These replace the percentage figures shown in Health Statistics Quarterly numbers 01,
02 and 03, and Population Trends 95 and 96, which were miscalculated.
5 These are the mid-year population estimates revised to be consistent with the original mid-2001 estimates released in October 2002.
6 Except for the North West, these are the mid-year population estimates published on 26 September 2003. The estimates for the North West were updated on 4 November 2003 to take
account of the provisional results from the Manchester matching exercise.
7 Mid-2002 population estimates are those published on 27 January 2004.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
National Statistics
48
Population Trends 117
Table 1.4
Autumn 2004
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
over
United Kingdom
Persons
1976
1981
1986
1991
19961
56,216
56,357
56,684
57,439
58,139
19981
19991
20001
20012
20022
Under
16
16–
64/59
65/60
and over
677
730
748
790
719
3,043
2,726
2,886
3,077
3,021
9.176
8,147
7,143
7,141
7,525
8.126
9,019
9,200
8,168
7,182
7,868
8,010
8,007
8,898
9,174
6,361
6,774
7,711
7,918
7,966
9,836
9,540
9,212
9,500
10,555
3,131
2,935
3,069
2,888
2,783
5,112
5,195
5,020
5,067
5,061
2,348
2,677
2,971
3,119
3,128
390
..
716
626
710
147
..
..
248
317
13,797
12,543
11,645
11,685
11,992
32,757
33,780
34,725
35,197
35,507
9,663
10,035
10,313
10,557
10,640
58,440
58,635
58,817
59,051
59,232
713
704
681
662
660
2,929
2,896
2,867
2,816
2,747
7,654
7,688
7,617
7,654
7,586
6,993
7,019
7,081
7,232
7,378
8,990
8,825
8,667
8,495
8,271
8,298
8,480
8,673
8,828
8,970
10,769
10,882
11,000
11,157
11,301
2,833
2,875
2,898
2,881
2,888
4,974
4,942
4,934
4,942
4,965
3,209
3,227
3,245
3,291
3,341
734
745
754
752
737
344
354
364
376
387
12,003
12,006
11,949
11,851
11,759
35,730
35,895
36,092
36,367
36,567
10,707
10,734
10,776
10,833
10,905
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
19961
27,360
27.412
27,542
27,909
28,275
348
374
384
403
369
1,564
1,400
1,478
1,572
1,548
4,711
4,184
3,664
3,655
3,843
4,145
4,596
4,663
4,146
3,601
3,981
4,035
4,022
4,432
4,585
3,214
3,409
3,864
3,949
3,963
4,820
4,711
4,572
4,732
5,247
1,466
1,376
1,463
1,390
1,358
2,204
2,264
2,206
2,272
2,309
775
922
1,060
1,146
1,187
101
..
166
166
201
31
..
..
46
65
7,083
6,439
5,968
5,976
6,128
17.167
17,646
18,142
18,303
18,385
3,111
3,327
3,432
3,768
3,762
19981
19991
20001
20012
20022
28,441
28,556
28,659
28,810
28,919
365
361
349
338
338
1,502
1,485
1,469
1,443
1,406
3,915
3,934
3,920
3,902
3,887
3,499
3,518
3,559
3,650
3,733
4,448
4,403
4,322
4,244
4,123
4,121
4,208
4,297
4,368
4,440
5,346
5,399
5,453
5,530
5,597
1,387
1,408
1,418
1,410
1,413
2,291
2,286
2,291
2,305
2,325
1,239
1,258
1,276
1,307
1,337
214
220
225
227
226
73
77
81
85
89
6,142
6,147
6,120
6,071
6,025
18,481
18,568
18,667
18,815
18,913
3,818
3,841
3,872
3,924
3,977
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
19961
28,856
28,946
29,142
29,530
29,864
330
356
364
387
350
1,479
1,327
1,408
1,505
1,473
4,465
3,963
3,480
3,487
3,682
3,980
4,423
4,538
4,021
3,582
3,887
3,975
3,985
4,466
4,589
3,147
3,365
3,847
3,968
4,003
5,015
4,829
4,639
4,769
5,308
1,665
1,559
1,606
1,498
1,424
2,908
2,931
2,814
2,795
2,752
1,573
1,756
1,911
1,972
1,941
289
..
550
460
509
116
..
..
202
252
6,714
6,104
5,678
5,709
5,864
15,590
16,134
16,583
16,894
17,122
6,552
6,708
6,881
6,927
6,878
19981
19991
20001
20012
20022
29,999
30,079
30,157
30,241
30,318
348
343
332
324
322
1,427
1,411
1,398
1,373
1,341
3,739
3,754
3,733
3,715
3,698
3,493
3,501
3,522
3,582
3,645
4,502
4,422
4,345
4,252
4,149
4,177
4,272
4,376
4,460
4,530
5,423
5,482
5,547
5,627
5,704
1,446
1,467
1,480
1,471
1,475
2,683
2,656
2,643
2,637
2,640
1,970
1,969
1,968
1,984
2,004
520
525
529
525
511
271
277
283
291
298
5,861
5,859
5,828
5,780
5,735
17,249
17,327
17,425
17,522
17,655
6,882
6,884
6,904
6,909
6,928
England and Wales
Persons
1976
49,459
1981
49,634
1986
49,999
1991
50,748
1
51,385
1996
585
634
654
698
636
2,642
2,372
2,522
2,713
2,670
7,967
7,085
6,226
6,248
6,616
7,077
7,873
8,061
7,165
6,287
6,979
7,086
7,052
7,862
8,119
5,608
5,996
6,856
7,022
7,025
8,707
8,433
8,136
8,407
9,364
2,777
2,607
2,725
2,553
2,454
4,540
4,619
4,470
4,506
4,491
2,093
2,388
2,655
2,790
2,800
351
383
461
561
638
135
157
182
223
286
11,973
10,910
10,161
10,247
10,558
28,894
29,796
30,647
31,101
31,362
8,593
8,928
9,190
9,400
9,465
19981
19991
20001
20012
20022
51,685
51,884
52,071
52,297
52,480
632
625
606
589
588
2,593
2,566
2,542
2,499
2,439
6,746
6,783
6,759
6,733
6,710
6,125
6,157
6,216
6,359
6,495
7,968
7,831
7,703
7,556
7,365
7,318
7,480
7,655
7,797
7,931
9,553
9,651
9,754
9,887
10,012
2,501
2,540
2,561
2,546
2,552
4,406
4,375
4,366
4,372
4,391
2,873
2,887
2,903
2,942
2,985
659
670
679
677
663
311
319
328
340
350
10,589
10,604
10,561
10,484
10,411
31,575
31,738
31,931
32,187
32,380
9,521
9,543
9,579
9,627
9,689
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
19961
24,089
24,160
24,311
24,681
25,018
300
324
335
356
327
1,358
1,218
1,292
1,385
1,369
4,091
3,639
3,194
3,198
3,379
3,610
4,011
4,083
3,638
3,150
3,532
3,569
3,542
3,920
4,065
2,843
3,024
3,438
3,504
3,498
4,280
4,178
4,053
4,199
4,662
1,304
1,227
1,302
1,234
1,203
1,963
2,020
1,972
2,027
2,058
690
825
951
1,029
1,067
91
94
115
150
182
29
32
35
42
59
6,148
5,601
5,208
5,240
5,395
15,169
15,589
16,031
16,193
16,258
2,773
2,970
3,072
3,248
3,365
19981
19991
20001
20012
20022
25,184
25,301
25,407
25,551
25,653
323
320
310
301
301
1,330
1,315
1,302
1,280
1,248
3,451
3,471
3,462
3,449
3,439
3,064
3,085
3,125
3,210
3,285
3,986
3,916
3,852
3,786
3,681
3,640
3,719
3,800
3,867
3,935
4,747
4,793
4,838
4,903
4,961
1,229
1,248
1,257
1,250
1,252
2,039
2,034
2,037
2,049
2,066
1,115
1,131
1,147
1,174
1,201
194
199
204
206
204
66
70
73
77
81
5,418
5,429
5,409
5,370
5,333
16,351
16,439
16,538
16.676
16,768
3,414
3,433
3,461
3,505
3,552
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
19961
25,370
25,474
25,687
26,067
26,367
285
310
319
342
310
1,284
1,154
1,231
1,328
1,301
3,876
3,446
3,032
3,050
3,237
3,467
3,863
3,978
3,527
3,137
3,447
3,517
3,509
3,943
4,054
2,765
2,972
3,418
3,517
3,526
4,428
4,255
4,083
4,208
4,702
1,473
1,380
1,422
1,319
1,251
2,577
2,599
2,498
2,479
2,433
1,403
1,564
1,704
1,761
1,733
261
289
346
411
456
106
126
148
181
227
5,826
5,309
4,953
5,007
5,163
13,725
14,207
14,616
14,908
15,105
5,820
5,958
6,118
6,152
6,100
19981
19991
20001
20012
20022
26,502
26,583
26,664
26,746
26,827
308
305
296
288
287
1,264
1,250
1,240
1,219
1,191
3,295
3,312
3,297
3,284
3,272
3,062
3,072
3,091
3,149
3,210
3,981
3,914
3,851
3,770
3,684
3,678
3,762
3,855
3,930
3,996
4,806
4,859
4,916
4,984
5,051
1,272
1,291
1,304
1,296
1,300
2,367
2,342
2,329
2,323
2,325
1,758
1,757
1,756
1,769
1,785
466
471
475
471
459
245
250
255
263
269
5,171
5,175
5,152
5,114
5,078
15,224
15,299
15,393
15,511
15,613
6,107
6,110
6,118
6,122
6,137
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 These are interim revised population estimates for 1992–2000 which were released on 23 October 2003, and which are subject to further revision.
2 Mid-2001 UK, England and Wales, and England population estimates were updated on 4 November 2003 to take account of the provisional results from the Manchester matching exercise.
Mid-2002 population estimates are those published on 27 January 2004. These may not be the estimates used as the denominators in the production of rates shown in some tables. Where
rates are shown, footnotes to each table specify which population estimates have been used.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
49
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Table 1.4
continued
Autumn 2004
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
over
Under
16
16–
64/59
65/60
and over
England
Persons
1976
1981
1986
1991
19961
46,660
46,821
47,188
47,875
48,496
551
598
618
660
603
2,491
2,235
2,380
2,560
2,524
7,513
6,678
5,869
5,885
6,237
6,688
7,440
7,623
6,772
5,937
6,599
6,703
6,682
7,460
7,709
5,298
5,663
6,478
6,633
6,645
8,199
7,948
7,672
7,920
8,824
2,616
2,449
2,559
2,399
2,307
4,274
4,347
4,199
4,222
4,212
1,972
2,249
2,501
2,626
2,629
332
362
435
529
601
127
149
172
210
269
11,293
10,285
9,583
9,658
9,962
27,275
28,133
28,962
29,390
29,648
8,092
8,403
8,643
8,827
8,886
19981
19991
20001
20012
20022
48,789
48,987
49,167
49,390
49,562
598
592
574
557
558
2,452
2,427
2,404
2,363
2,307
6,361
6,398
6,375
6,352
6,330
5,785
5,813
5,866
6,004
6,131
7,569
7,443
7,325
7,191
7,010
6,928
7,095
7,252
7,389
7,517
9,000
9,092
9,189
9,316
9,433
2,352
2,389
2,409
2,393
2,395
4,135
4,108
4,100
4,108
4,127
2,696
2,709
2,723
2,760
2,800
621
631
639
638
624
293
301
309
320
330
9,993
10,010
9,970
9,897
9,830
29,855
30,014
30,199
30,449
30,632
8,941
8,964
8,998
9,043
9,101
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
19961
22,728
22,795
22,949
23,291
23,619
283
306
317
336
309
1,280
1,147
1,219
1,307
1,295
3,858
3,430
3,010
3,011
3,185
3,413
3,790
3,862
3,439
2,973
3,339
3,377
3,357
3,721
3,861
2,686
2,856
3,249
3,311
3,331
4,031
3,938
3,822
3,957
4,393
1,228
1,154
1,224
1,159
1,132
1,849
1,902
1,853
1,900
1,930
649
777
897
970
1,003
85
89
108
141
171
27
30
33
39
55
5,798
5,280
4,911
4,938
5,091
14,320
14,717
15,147
15,302
15,369
2,610
2,798
2,891
3,050
3,159
19981
19991
20001
20012
20022
23,779
23,896
24,000
24,144
24,243
306
303
294
285
286
1,257
1,244
1,231
1,211
1,180
3,253
3,274
3,265
3,254
3,244
2,892
2,912
2,949
3,032
3,103
3,778
3,724
3,667
3,608
3,509
3,448
3,524
3,603
3,667
3,733
4,473
4,515
4,558
4,620
4,676
1,156
1,174
1,182
1,175
1,175
1,914
1,910
1,913
1,925
1,942
1,047
1,062
1,077
1,101
1,127
183
188
192
194
192
63
66
69
73
77
5,113
5,124
5,106
5,069
5,035
15,460
15,546
15,644
15,782
15,870
3,206
3,225
3,251
3,293
3,337
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
19961
23,932
24,026
24,239
24,584
24,877
269
292
301
324
293
1,211
1,088
1,161
1,253
1,230
3,656
3,248
2,859
2,873
3,052
3,275
3,650
3,761
3,333
2,963
3,260
3,327
3,325
3,739
3,848
2,612
2,807
3,229
3,322
3,334
4,168
4,009
3,850
3,964
4,430
1,387
1,295
1,335
1,239
1,176
2,425
2,445
2,346
2,323
2,282
1,323
1,472
1,604
1,656
1,627
246
273
326
388
429
100
119
140
171
214
5,495
5,004
4,672
4,720
4,871
14,968
13,416
13,815
14,088
14,279
5,481
5,605
5,752
5,777
5,727
19981
19991
20001
20012
20022
25,010
25,091
25,166
25,246
25,319
292
289
280
273
272
1,195
1,183
1,173
1,153
1,126
3,108
3,124
3,110
3,098
3,087
2,893
2,901
2,917
2,972
3,028
3,780
3,718
3,658
3,583
3,501
3,480
3,561
3,649
3,722
3,784
4,527
4,577
4,631
4,696
4,758
1,196
1,215
1,226
1,218
1,220
2,221
2,198
2,187
2,183
2,185
1,649
1,648
1,646
1,658
1,673
439
443
447
444
432
230
235
240
247
253
4,880
4,885
4,864
4,828
4,795
14,395
14,467
14,555
14,668
14,761
5,735
5,739
5,747
5,750
5,763
Wales
Persons
1976
1981
1986
1991
19961
2,799
2,813
2,811
2,873
2,889
33
36
37
38
34
151
136
143
153
146
453
407
357
363
380
388
434
438
393
351
379
383
369
402
409
309
333
378
389
379
509
485
464
486
541
161
158
166
154
147
267
272
271
284
279
121
139
154
164
171
19
21
26
32
37
7
8
10
13
17
680
626
578
589
596
1,618
1,663
1,686
1,711
1,715
501
525
547
573
579
19981
19991
20001
2001
2002
2,896
2,897
2,904
2,908
2,919
34
33
32
32
30
141
139
138
136
132
385
385
383
381
380
341
344
350
355
364
399
388
378
365
355
390
395
403
409
414
553
559
565
571
578
149
151
153
153
156
271
267
265
264
265
177
178
180
183
185
38
38
39
39
39
18
19
19
20
20
596
594
591
587
582
1,720
1,724
1,732
1,737
1,749
580
579
581
584
588
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
19961
1,361
1,365
1,362
1,391
1,399
17
18
19
20
17
78
70
73
78
74
233
209
184
186
194
197
221
221
199
177
193
193
186
199
203
157
168
190
194
187
249
240
231
242
269
75
73
79
74
72
114
118
119
128
128
41
48
54
60
64
5
5
7
8
10
2
2
2
2
3
350
321
297
302
304
849
871
885
891
889
162
173
181
198
206
19981
19991
20001
2001
2002
1,405
1,405
1,407
1,408
1,411
17
17
16
16
16
72
72
71
70
68
197
198
197
196
195
172
173
175
178
182
198
192
185
178
172
192
195
198
200
202
275
277
280
282
285
73
74
75
75
77
125
124
124
124
125
68
69
71
73
74
11
11
12
12
12
4
4
4
4
4
305
305
303
301
299
892
893
894
895
897
208
208
210
212
215
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
19961
1,438
1,448
1,449
1,482
1,490
16
18
18
19
16
73
66
70
75
71
220
199
173
177
186
191
213
217
194
174
187
190
184
203
206
153
165
188
195
192
260
246
233
244
272
86
85
87
80
76
152
154
152
156
151
80
91
100
104
106
14
16
20
24
27
6
6
8
10
13
330
305
282
288
292
770
791
801
820
826
339
352
366
375
373
19981
19991
20001
2001
2002
1,491
1,492
1,497
1,500
1,508
17
16
15
15
15
69
68
67
66
65
188
188
187
185
185
169
171
174
177
182
201
196
192
187
183
198
201
206
209
212
278
282
285
289
293
76
77
77
78
80
146
144
142
141
140
109
109
109
110
111
27
27
28
27
27
14
15
15
15
16
290
289
288
285
283
829
831
838
843
851
372
371
371
372
374
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 These are interim revised population estimates for 1992–2000 which were released on 23 October 2003, and which are subject to further revision.
2 Mid-2001 UK, England and Wales, and England population estimates were updated on 4 November 2003 to take account of the provisional results from the Manchester matching exercise.
Mid-2002 population estimates are those published on 27 January 2004. These may not be the estimates used as the denominators in the production of rates shown in some tables. Where
rates are shown, footnotes to each table specify which population estimates have been used.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
National Statistics
50
Population Trends 117
Table 1.4
continued
Autumn 2004
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
over
Under
16
16–
64/59
65/60
and over
Scotland
Persons
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
5,233
5,180
5,112
5,083
5,092
67
69
66
66
59
291
249
257
258
252
904
780
656
634
643
806
875
863
746
651
692
724
739
795
798
591
603
665
696
722
897
880
849
853
925
282
260
273
265
259
460
460
435
441
448
202
232
252
259
256
31
35
42
51
57
11
14
15
19
24
1,352
1,188
1,061
1,021
1,019
3,023
3,110
3,161
3,151
3,151
858
882
890
912
922
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
5,077
5,072
5,063
5,064
5,055
58
56
53
52
51
239
234
230
224
217
644
643
636
629
622
628
625
628
633
639
766
743
717
696
669
749
762
774
782
788
941
951
962
979
993
261
262
263
262
262
445
444
445
447
449
262
265
267
272
276
59
59
59
59
58
26
27
28
29
30
1,003
995
985
970
955
3,145
3,144
3,141
3,150
3,150
929
933
937
944
950
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2,517
2,495
2,462
2,445
2,447
34
35
34
34
30
149
128
131
132
128
463
400
336
324
328
408
445
438
377
327
347
364
371
394
392
290
298
331
345
355
429
424
410
415
454
128
118
127
124
122
193
194
184
192
198
65
77
86
91
93
8
8
10
13
15
2
3
3
3
5
693
610
543
522
521
1,556
1,603
1,636
1,623
1,616
269
282
283
299
310
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2,439
2,437
2,432
2,434
2,432
30
29
28
26
26
122
120
118
115
111
329
329
326
322
319
315
313
315
319
324
374
362
347
337
325
367
372
377
379
382
463
469
474
483
490
124
125
125
125
125
198
198
199
200
202
96
98
100
103
106
16
16
17
17
17
5
6
6
6
7
513
510
505
497
489
1,610
1,609
1,606
1,610
1,612
316
318
322
327
331
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2,716
2,685
2,649
2,639
2,645
32
33
32
32
28
142
121
126
126
123
440
380
320
309
315
398
430
424
369
324
345
359
368
402
406
301
305
334
351
367
468
456
439
437
470
154
142
146
141
137
267
265
250
249
250
137
155
166
168
164
23
27
32
38
42
8
11
12
16
20
659
579
518
499
498
1,468
1,506
1,525
1,528
1,535
589
600
606
612
612
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2,638
2,635
2,631
2,630
2,623
28
27
26
26
25
116
114
112
109
106
315
314
310
307
303
313
312
313
314
315
392
381
369
359
344
382
390
397
403
406
478
483
488
496
504
137
138
138
137
137
248
246
246
246
247
166
166
166
169
171
43
43
43
43
41
21
22
22
23
23
490
486
480
473
466
1,535
1,535
1,535
1,540
1,538
614
614
616
617
619
Northern Ireland
Persons
1976
1,524
1981
1,543
1986
1,574
1991
1,607
1996
1,662
26
27
28
26
24
111
106
107
106
99
306
282
261
260
266
243
271
277
256
244
198
200
217
240
257
163
175
190
200
220
231
227
227
241
266
73
68
71
70
70
111
116
115
120
123
53
57
64
69
72
8
..
16
14
15
2
..
..
6
7
471
444
423
417
415
840
874
917
945
993
212
224
234
246
253
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
1,678
1,679
1,683
1,689
1,697
24
23
22
22
22
97
96
95
93
91
264
262
259
255
253
239
237
237
240
243
257
252
247
243
238
231
237
243
248
251
275
279
284
290
296
71
73
73
74
75
122
122
123
123
125
74
75
75
77
79
16
16
16
16
16
7
7
7
7
7
411
408
403
397
393
1,010
1,014
1,020
1,030
1,037
257
258
259
262
266
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
754
757
768
783
810
13
14
14
13
12
58
54
55
54
51
157
145
134
133
136
127
140
142
131
124
102
102
109
119
128
81
87
95
100
109
111
109
110
118
131
34
32
33
32
33
47
50
50
53
54
19
21
23
26
27
3
..
4
4
4
0
..
..
1
1
242
228
217
213
212
442
454
474
487
511
70
75
77
83
87
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
819
818
820
824
829
12
12
11
11
11
50
49
49
48
47
135
134
133
131
130
121
119
120
122
124
128
125
122
120
117
114
117
119
122
123
135
138
141
144
147
34
35
35
35
36
54
54
55
56
56
28
29
29
30
31
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
211
209
207
204
202
520
521
524
529
534
89
89
90
92
94
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
769
786
805
824
851
13
13
13
13
11
53
52
52
52
49
149
137
127
127
130
116
130
135
125
120
96
98
107
121
129
81
88
96
100
110
120
118
118
123
135
38
37
38
38
37
64
66
65
67
69
33
37
41
44
45
6
..
12
10
11
2
..
..
4
6
229
216
206
203
203
398
420
442
458
482
143
150
157
163
167
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
859
861
862
865
868
12
11
11
10
11
47
47
46
45
44
129
128
126
124
123
118
117
118
119
119
129
127
125
123
120
117
120
124
126
128
139
141
143
146
149
37
38
38
38
39
68
68
68
68
68
46
46
46
47
48
11
11
11
11
11
6
6
6
6
6
201
199
196
193
191
490
493
497
501
504
168
169
169
170
173
See notes opposite.
51
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Table 1.5
Autumn 2004
Population: age, sex and legal marital status
England and Wales
Mid-year
Numbers (thousands)
Total
population
Males
Single
Married
Divorced
Females
Widowed
Total
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Total
Aged
16 and over
1971
1976
1981
19861
19911
36,818
37,486
38,724
39,837
40,501
4,173
4,369
5,013
5,625
5,891
12,522
12,511
12,238
11,867
11,636
187
376
611
917
1,187
682
686
698
695
727
17,563
17,941
18,559
19,103
19,441
3,583
3,597
4,114
4,617
4,817
12,566
12,538
12,284
12,000
11,833
296
533
828
1,165
1,459
2,810
2,877
2,939
2,953
2,951
19,255
19,545
20,165
20,734
21,060
19951
19961
19971
19981
40,613
40,727
40,840
40,957
6,081
6,182
6,290
6,392
11,217
11,114
11,005
10,908
1,450
1,508
1,563
1,612
724
723
721
720
19,472
19,527
19,578
19,631
5,059
5,171
5,295
5,404
11,463
11,375
11,284
11,208
1,749
1,813
1,874
1,932
2,870
2,842
2,810
2,782
21,141
21,200
21,263
21,326
19991
20001
20012
20023
41,121
41,330
41,814
42,069
6,528
6,678
6,875
7,050
10,816
10,729
11,099
11,034
1,660
1,707
1,475
1,503
715
712
732
732
19,719
19,826
20,181
20,320
5,527
5,655
5,783
5,950
11,140
11,087
11,138
11,071
1,991
2,052
1,970
2,017
2,744
2,711
2,741
2,712
21,402
21,505
21,632
21,749
16–19
1971
1976
1981
19861
19911
2,666
2,901
3,310
3,131
2,665
1,327
1,454
1,675
1,587
1,358
34
28
20
10
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,362
1,482
1,694
1,596
1,366
1,163
1,289
1,523
1,484
1,267
142
129
93
49
32
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,305
1,419
1,616
1,535
1,300
19951
19961
19971
19981
2,339
2,394
2,469
2,500
1,179
1,205
1,241
1,259
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,181
1,208
1,243
1,261
1,145
1,174
1,214
1,228
13
12
12
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,158
1,187
1,226
1,240
19991
20001
20012
20023
2,520
2,507
2,563
2,627
1,271
1,273
1,302
1,343
2
2
6
5
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1,273
1,275
1,310
1,350
1,235
1,224
1,235
1,262
11
9
16
14
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1,246
1,233
1,253
1,277
20–24
1971
1976
1981
19861
19911
3,773
3,395
3,744
4,171
3,911
1,211
1,167
1,420
1,768
1,717
689
557
466
317
242
3
4
10
14
12
0
0
1
0
0
1,904
1,728
1,896
2,099
1,971
745
725
1,007
1,383
1,421
1,113
925
811
657
490
9
16
27
32
29
2
2
2
1
1
1,869
1,667
1,847
2,072
1,941
19951
19961
19971
19981
3,417
3,253
3,100
3,001
1,580
1,516
1,451
1,411
120
99
82
71
6
5
4
3
0
0
0
0
1,706
1,620
1,538
1,485
1,410
1,378
1,344
1,324
283
240
206
182
17
15
12
10
0
0
0
0
1,711
1,633
1,562
1,516
19991
20001
20012
20023
3,001
3,047
3,133
3,195
1,420
1,450
1,483
1,516
64
59
74
70
3
2
3
3
0
0
1
1
1,486
1,511
1,560
1,590
1,339
1,371
1,386
1,426
166
156
178
169
9
8
8
8
0
0
1
2
1,515
1,535
1,573
1,605
25–29
1971
1976
1981
19861
19911
3,267
3,758
3,372
3,713
4,154
431
533
588
835
1,132
1,206
1,326
1,057
949
856
16
39
54
79
82
1
2
1
1
1
1,654
1,900
1,700
1,863
2,071
215
267
331
527
800
1,367
1,522
1,247
1,207
1,158
29
65
89
113
123
4
5
4
4
2
1,614
1,859
1,671
1,850
2,083
19951
19961
19971
19981
3,974
3,915
3,836
3,747
1,250
1,280
1,304
1,317
657
599
537
480
66
60
54
47
0
1
0
0
1,973
1,940
1,895
1,845
936
977
1,018
1,054
946
887
820
754
116
109
101
92
2
2
2
2
2,000
1,975
1,941
1,902
19991
20001
20012
20023
3,633
3,542
3,497
3,354
1,313
1,309
1,302
1,273
430
390
425
379
41
36
28
25
0
0
1
1
1,785
1,735
1,756
1,678
1,072
1,091
1,056
1,049
691
638
625
573
84
76
57
51
2
2
3
3
1,849
1,806
1,741
1,676
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
Population estimates by marital status for 1971 and 1976 are based on the 1971 Census; those for 1981 are based on the 1981 Census and have not been rebased using
the 2001 Census. Estimates for 1986 onwards are based on the 2001 Census.
1
These are interim revised marital status estimates (based on the original mid-2001 estimates released on 10 October 2002) and are subject to further revision.
2
These marital status estimates were released on 6 November 2003. They take account of the provisional results of the Manchester matching exercise.
3
These marital status estimates were released on 27 February 2004. They are consistent with the mid-2002 population estimates published on 27 January 2004.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
National Statistics
52
Population Trends 117
Table 1.5
continued
Autumn 2004
Population: age, sex and legal marital status
England and Wales
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands)
Total
population
Mid-year
Males
Single
Married
Divorced
Females
Widowed
Total
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Total
30–34
1971
1976
1981
19861
19911
2,897
3,220
3,715
3,338
3,708
206
236
318
355
520
1,244
1,338
1,451
1,197
1,172
23
55
97
124
155
3
3
3
2
2
1,475
1,632
1,869
1,679
1,849
111
118
165
206
335
1,269
1,388
1,544
1,293
1,330
34
75
129
154
189
8
8
9
6
5
1,422
1,588
1,846
1,660
1,859
19951
19961
19971
19981
4,083
4,123
4,135
4,109
750
797
838
868
1,106
1,077
1,043
1,002
171
168
164
158
2
2
2
2
2,030
2,045
2,048
2,030
513
554
592
622
1,320
1,301
1,272
1,236
216
219
219
217
5
5
5
5
2,054
2,078
2,088
2,079
19991
20001
20012
20023
4,069
4,017
4,060
4,011
897
926
937
964
956
906
983
934
149
140
109
103
2
2
2
2
2,004
1,973
2,031
2,003
649
674
709
741
1,197
1,156
1,140
1,097
214
209
173
164
5
5
7
7
2,065
2,044
2,029
2,008
35–44
1971
1976
1981
19861
19911
5,736
5,608
5,996
6,856
7,022
317
286
316
396
477
2,513
2,442
2,519
2,738
2,632
48
104
178
293
384
13
12
12
12
11
2,891
2,843
3,024
3,438
3,504
201
167
170
213
280
2,529
2,427
2,540
2,815
2,760
66
129
222
350
444
48
42
41
39
34
2,845
2,765
2,972
3,418
3,517
19951
19961
19971
19981
6,900
7,015
7,153
7,304
584
634
693
760
2,384
2,374
2,365
2,355
452
468
484
497
12
12
13
13
3,432
3,489
3,555
3,626
373
411
455
505
2,560
2,563
2,574
2,588
507
524
541
558
28
28
28
27
3,468
3,526
3,598
3,677
19991
20001
20012
20023
7,464
7,637
7,798
7,931
834
910
955
1,023
2,348
2,342
2,492
2,491
508
517
408
409
13
13
12
12
3,703
3,783
3,867
3,935
562
623
690
749
2,600
2,615
2,647
2,646
572
590
557
565
27
27
36
36
3,761
3,854
3,930
3,996
45–64
1971
1976
1981
19861
19911
11,887
11,484
11,040
10,860
10,960
502
496
480
461
456
4,995
4,787
4,560
4,422
4,394
81
141
218
331
456
173
160
147
141
127
5,751
5,583
5,405
5,355
5,433
569
462
386
327
292
4,709
4,568
4,358
4,220
4,211
125
188
271
388
521
733
683
620
570
503
6,136
5,901
5,635
5,505
5,527
19951
19961
19971
19981
11,710
11,814
11,920
12,048
498
509
520
535
4,566
4,566
4,564
4,569
627
669
710
750
119
117
117
116
5,810
5,862
5,911
5,971
305
310
318
328
4,452
4,471
4,490
4,517
703
745
788
831
440
426
413
402
5,900
5,952
6,009
6,077
19991
20001
20012
20023
12,183
12,306
12,433
12,563
553
571
642
675
4,573
4,566
4,645
4,651
793
834
745
767
116
117
121
120
6,034
6,088
6,153
6,213
339
352
390
414
4,544
4,565
4,574
4,589
873
917
916
954
393
385
401
393
6,149
6,218
6,280
6,350
65 and over
1971
1976
1981
19861
19911
6,592
7,119
7,548
7,768
8,080
179
197
216
223
231
1,840
2,033
2,167
2,234
2,332
17
33
54
76
99
492
510
534
539
586
2,527
2,773
2,971
3,072
3,248
580
569
533
477
422
1,437
1,579
1,692
1,759
1,853
32
60
90
127
152
2,016
2,138
2,263
2,333
2,405
4,065
4,347
4,578
4,696
4,832
19951
19961
19971
19981
8,191
8,213
8,227
8,248
240
241
241
241
2,381
2,396
2,412
2,429
128
137
147
156
591
590
589
587
3,340
3,365
3,389
3,414
378
366
354
344
1,890
1,901
1,910
1,921
190
201
212
225
2,394
2,381
2,362
2,345
4,851
4,848
4,839
4,835
19991
20001
20012
20023
8,251
8,274
8,331
8,389
240
239
253
257
2,444
2,464
2,475
2,505
166
177
183
196
583
580
594
595
3,433
3,460
3,505
3,552
332
321
317
308
1,931
1,949
1,959
1,983
238
251
258
275
2,317
2,292
2,792
2,271
4,818
4,814
4,826
4,837
See notes opposite.
53
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Table 1.6
Autumn 2004
Components of population change
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Mid-year to mid-year
Population at
start of period
Numbers (thousands)
Total
annual
change
Components of change (mid-year to mid-year or annual averages)
Live
births
Deaths
Natural
change
(Live births –
deaths)
Population at end
of period
Net civilian migration
Total
1
To/from
rest of UK
To/from
Irish Republic
To/from
rest of the
world
Other
changes
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,684
+ 58
+ 27
+ 65
+148
766
705
733
782
670
662
662
647
+ 96
+ 42
+ 70
+135
–
–
–
+
55
33
5
13
–
–
–
–
– 55
– 33
..
..
+ 16
+ 18
..
..
56,216
56,352
56,684
57,439
1995–962
1996–972
1997–982
1998–992
1999–20002
2000–012,3
2001–023
58,005
58,139
58,283
58,440
58,635
58,817
59,051
+134
+143
+157
+195
+181
+234
+181
722
740
718
713
688
674
663
645
637
617
634
626
599
601
+ 77
+103
+100
+ 77
+ 62
+ 74
+ 62
+ 57
+ 41
+ 57
+118
+119
+160
+119
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
58,139
58,283
58,440
58,635
58,517
59,051
59,232
England and Wales
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
49,152
49,459
49,634
49,999
+ 61
+ 35
+ 73
+150
644
612
639
689
588
582
582
569
+ 76
+ 30
+ 57
+120
–
–
+
+
28
9
16
30
+ 10
+ 11
..
..
– 9
– 3
..
..
– 29
– 17
..
..
+ 13
+ 14
..
..
49,459
49,634
49,999
50,748
1995–962
1996–972
1997–982
1998–992
1999–20002
2000–012,3
2001–023
51,252
51,385
51,528
51,685
51,884
52,071
52,297
+133
+143
+157
+199
+187
+227
+183
640
655
636
630
612
599
591
569
562
544
558
550
528
530
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
71
93
92
72
61
71
61
+ 62
+ 49
+ 65
+127
+125
+156
+122
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
51,385
51,528
51,685
51,884
52,071
52,297
52,480
England
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
46,412
46,660
46,821
47,188
+ 50
+ 32
+ 73
+137
627
577
603
651
552
546
547
535
+ 75
+ 31
+ 56
+116
– 35
– 11
+ 18
+ 21
+ 1
+ 6
..
..
– 9
– 3
..
..
– 27
– 15
..
..
+ 10
+ 12
..
..
46,660
46,821
47,188
47,875
1995–962
1996–972
1997–982
1998–992
1999–20002
2000–012,3
2001–023
48,365
48,496
48,636
48,789
48,987
49,167
49,390
+131
+140
+153
+198
+180
+223
+172
606
620
602
598
580
568
560
533
527
510
523
516
495
497
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
73
93
92
74
64
73
63
+ 59
+ 47
+ 61
+123
+116
+150
+109
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
48,496
48,636
48,789
48,987
49,167
49,390
49,562
2
2
..
..
+ 3
+ 2
..
..
2,799
2,813
2,811
2,873
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
2,889
2,892
2,896
2,892
2,904
2,908
2,919
{
United Kingdom
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
{
Wales
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,811
+
+
–
+
12
3
1
12
37
35
36
38
36
36
35
34
+
–
+
+
1
1
1
4
+
+
–
+
7
2
1
8
+ 10
+ 5
..
..
..
..
..
..
1995–962
1996–972
1997–982
1998–992
1999–20002
2000–012
2001–02
2,887
2,889
2,892
2,896
2,897
2,904
2,908
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
2
3
4
1
7
4
11
34
35
34
33
31
31
30
35
35
34
35
34
33
33
–
–
–
–
–
1
–
–
2
3
2
3
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
3
3
4
3
10
5
14
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Scotland
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
5,236
5,233
5,180
5,112
–
– 11
– 14
– 6
73
66
66
66
64
64
64
62
+
+
+
+
9
2
2
3
– 14
– 16
– 16
– 9
– 4
– 7
– 7
..
– 10
– 10
– 7
..
+ 4
+ 4
+ 1
..
5,233
5,180
5,112
5,083
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
2001–02
5,104
5,092
5,083
5,077
5,072
5,063
5,064
–
–
–
–
–
+
–
12
9
6
5
9
1
9
59
60
58
57
54
53
51
61
60
59
60
60
57
57
–
–
–
–
–
–
2
–
1
4
6
4
6
–
–
–
–
–
+
–
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
5,092
5,083
5,077
5,072
5,063
5,064
5,055
Northern Ireland
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1,540
1,524
1,543
1,574
–
+
+
+
3
3
6
7
28
27
28
27
17
17
16
16
+
+
+
+
11
10
12
12
– 14
– 8
– 5
– 5
7
3
1
1
– 1
+ 17
–
–
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
2001–02
1,649
1,662
1,671
1,678
1,679
1,683
1,689
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
13
10
7
1
4
6
7
24
25
24
23
22
22
21
15
15
15
15
16
14
14
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
8
10
9
8
7
7
7
+
–
–
–
–
–
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
–
+ 1
–
– 2
– 1
+ 1
_
1,662
1,671
1,678
1,679
1,683
1,689
1,697
{
–
–
9
9
6
1
3
5
3
7
4
3
3
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
–
–
–
–
{
5
1
2
5
2
2
_
–
–
–
–
1 For UK, England, Wales and Scotland from 1981 onwards, this column is not an estimate of net civilian migration, it also includes “other” changes. It has been derived by subtraction using
revised population estimates and natural change.
2 These are interim revised population estimates for 1992–2000 which were released on 23 October 2003, and which are subject to further revision.
3 Mid-2001 UK, England and Wales, and England population estimates were updated on 4 November 2003 to take account of the provisional results from the Manchester matching exercise.
Mid-2002 population estimates are those published on 27 January 2004. These may not be the estimates used as the denominators in the production of rates shown in some tables. When
rates are shown, footnotes to each table specify which population estimates have been used.
National Statistics
54
Population Trends 117
Table 2.1
Autumn 2004
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Year and
quarter
All live
births
Number
Rate1
Numbers (thousands) and rates
Live births
outside marriage
Marriages
Number
Rate2
Number
Divorces
Rate3
Deaths
Number
Rate4
Number
Infant
mortality5
Rate1
Number
Neonatal
mortality6
Rate2
Number
Perinatal
mortality7
Rate2
Number
Rate8
United Kingdom
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
675.5
730.7
754.8
792.3
733.2
12.0
13.0
13.3
13.8
12.6
61.1
91.3
154.3
236.1
260.4
90
125
204
298
355
406.0
397.8
393.9
349.7
317.5
..
49.4
..
..
..
135.4
156.4
168.2
173.5
171.7
..
11.3
..
..
..
680.8
658.0
660.7
646.2
636.0
12.1
11.7
11.7
11.2
10.9
9.79
8.16
7.18
5.82
4.50
14.5
11.2
9.5
7.4
6.1
6.68
4.93
4.00
3.46
3.00
9.9
6.7
5.3
4.4
4.1
12.3
8.79
7.31
6.45
6.41
18.0
12.0
9.6
8.1
8.7
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
700.0
679.0
669.1
668.8
695.6P
11.9
11.5
11.3
11.3
11.7P
271.6
268.1
268.0
271.7
288.5P
388
395
401
406
415P
301.1
305.9
286.1
291.8p
..
..
..
..
..
..
158.7
154.6
156.8
160.5p
..
..
..
..
..
..
632.1
608.4
602.3
606.2
612.0p
10.8
10.3
10.2
10.2
10.3p
4.05
3.79
3.66
3.50
3.69p
5.8
5.6
5.5
5.2
5.3p
2.73
2.63
2.43
2.36
2.54p
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.7p
5.79
5.56
5.39
5.57
5.92p
8.2
8.1
8.0
8.3
8.5p
2002 Sept
Dec
173.8
168.9
11.6
11.3
71.0
69.9
409
414
120.3p
54.1p
..
..
41.1p
39.8p
..
..
139.8
157.0
9.4
10.6
0.83
0.92
4.8
5.4
0.56
0.62
3.2
3.7
1.37
1.41
7.8
8.3
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
165.6p
173.4p
182.2p
174.3P
11.3p
11.7p
12.2p
11.6P
68.7P
70.3P
75.7p
73.6P
415P
405P
415p
423P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
162.6
146.7P
141.0P
161.7p
11.1
9.9P
9.4P
10.8p
0.93
0.87P
0.91P
0.97p
5.6
5.1P
5.0P
5.6p
0.64
0.59P
0.62P
0.67p
3.9
3.4P
3.4P
3.8p
1.44
1.48P
1.52P
1.48p
8.6
8.5P
8.3P
8.4p
2004 March
174.2P
11.2P
73.5P
422P
..
..
..
..
161.1P
10.9P
0.96P
5.5P
0.64P
3.7P
1.46P
8.3P
England and Wales
1976
584.3
1981
634.5
1986
661.0
1991
699.2
1996
649.5
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.8
12.6
53.8
81.0
141.3
211.3
232.7
92
128
214
302
358
358.6
352.0
347.9
306.8
279.0
57.7
49.6
43.6
36.0
30.6
126.7
145.7
153.9
158.7
157.1
10.1
11.9
12.9
13.5
14.0
598.5
577.9
581.2
570.0
560.1
12.1
11.6
11.6
11.2
10.9
8.34
7.02
6.31
5.16
3.99
14.3
11.1
9.6
7.4
6.1
5.66
4.23
3.49
3.05
2.68
9.7
6.7
5.3
4.4
4.1
10.5
7.56
6.37
5.65
5.62
17.7
11.8
9.6
8.0
8.6
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
621.9
604.4
594.6
596.1
621.5p
12.0
11.6
11.4
11.4
11.8P
241.9
238.6
238.1
242.0
257.2P
389
395
400
406
414P
263.5
268.0
249.2
254.4p
..
27.5
27.5
25.5
25.5p
..
144.6
141.1
143.8p
147.7p
153.5
13.2
12.9
12.9p
13.4p
13.9
556.1
535.7
530.4
533.5
539.2p
10.7
10.3
10.1
10.2
10.3p
3.62
3.38
3.24
3.13
3.30p
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3p
2.44
2.34
2.14
2.13
2.28p
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.6
3.7p
5.14
4.96
4.76
4.99
5.32p
8.2
8.2
8.0
8.3
8.5p
2002 Sept
Dec
155.0
150.6
11.7
11.4
63.5
62.3
409
414
105.1P
46.6p
41.8P
18.5p
38.0P
36.6p
13.6P
13.1p
122.7
138.2
9.3
10.5
0.82
0.83
4.7
5.5
0.50
0.55
3.2
3.7
1.23
1.26
7.9
8.3
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
147.4p
155.1p
162.9p
156.0P
11.4p
11.8p
12.3p
11.8P
61.0p
62.8p
67.6p
65.8P
414p
405p
415p
422P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
39.4P
38.6P
37.9Pp
37.6
14.5p
14.0p
13.6Pp
13.5
143.1
129.2P
124.3P
142.6p
11.1
9.9P
9.4P
10.8p
0.83P
0.79
0.80P
0.87p
5.7
5.1P
4.9P
5.6p
0.57
0.54P
0.55P
0.60p
3.9
3.5P
3.4P
3.8p
1.30
1.33P
1.36P
1.31p
8.8P
8.5
8.4P
8.3p
2004 March
June
155.1Pp
154.9
11.2Pp
11.1
65.2Pp
64.0
420Pp
413
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
142.0P
..
10.9P
..
0.86P
..
5.6P
..
0.59P
..
3.8P
..
1.29P
..
8.3P
..
England
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
550.4
598.2
623.6
660.8
614.2
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.7
12.7
50.8
76.9
133.5
198.9
218.2
92
129
214
301
355
339.0
332.2
328.4
290.1
264.2
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
146.0
150.1
148.7
..
..
..
..
..
560.3
541.0
544.5
534.0
524.0
12.0
11.6
11.6
11.2
10.8
7.83
6.50
5.92
4.86
3.74
14.2
10.9
9.5
7.3
6.1
5.32
3.93
3.27
2.87
2.53
9.7
6.6
5.2
4.3
4.1
9.81
7.04
5.98
5.33
5.36
17.6
11.7
9.5
8.0
8.7
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
589.5
572.8
563.7
565.7
589.9P
12.0
11.7
11.4
11.4
11.9P
226.7
223.8
223.3
227.0
241.4P
385
391
396
401
409P
249.5
253.8
236.2
240.9p
..
..
..
..
..
..
137.0
133.9
136.4p
140.2
145.8
..
..
..
..
..
519.6
501.0
496.1
499.1
504.1p
10.6
10.2
10.0
10.1
10.2p
3.38
3.18
3.04
2.97
3.15p
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3p
2.29
2.21
2.02
2.02
2.17p
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.6
3.7p
4.86
4.69
4.51
4.75
5.01p
8.2
8.2
8.0
8.3
8.5P
2002 Sept
Dec
147.1
142.9
11.8
11.4
59.5
58.4
404
409
99.3P
44.2p
..
..
36.1P
34.7p
..
..
114.6
129.3
8.7
9.8
0.69
0.79
4.7
5.5
0.47
0.53
3.2
3.7
1.15
1.19
7.8
8.3
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
139.9p
147.3p
154.5p
148.2P
11.4p
11.9p
12.3p
11.8P
57.2p
58.9p
63.4p
61.8P
409p
400p
411p
417P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
37.5P
36.6P
36.0P
35.7P
..
..
..
..
133.8
120.6P
116.3P
133.5p
11.0
9.8P
9.3P
10.7p
0.80
0.75P
0.75P
0.84p
5.7
5.1P
4.9P
5.7p
0.54
0.52P
0.51P
0.58p
3.9
3.6P
3.3P
3.9p
1.24
1.27P
1.28P
1.25p
p
8.8P
8.6P
8.3P
8.4p
2004 March
June
147.3P
147.1P
11.2P
11.2P
61.2P
60.1
415P
409
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
132.8P
..
10.8P
..
0.82P
..
5.6P
..
0.55P
..
3.8P
..
1.22P
..
8.2P
..
Notes:
Rates for the most recent quarters will be particularly subject to revision, even
when standard detail is given, as they are based on provisional numbers or on estimates
derived from events registered in the period.
Figures for England and Wales represent the numbers of deaths registered in each
year up to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993 to 2002.
Provisional figures for 2003 relate to registrations.
From 1972 birth and death figures for England and also for Wales each exclude events for
persons usually resident outside England and Wales. These events are, however, included in
the totals for England and Wales combined, and for the United Kingdom.
From 1981 births to non-resident mothers in Northern Ireland are excluded from the
figures for Northern Ireland, and for the United Kingdom.
Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
All 2001 and 2002 birth and death rates for UK, England and Wales, England, and Wales
are based on the revised mid-2001 and the mid-2002 population estimates released on 26
September 2003. They do not take account of the provisional results of the Manchester
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p
matching exercise or the minor revision to the mid-2002 estimate for England in
respect of the armed forces published on 27 January 2004. Death rates for 2003 and
2004 are based on the most up-to-date mid-2002 population estimates released on
27 January 2004, which take account of the provisional results of the Manchester
matching exercise and the minor revision in respect of the armed forces. Birth rates
for 2003 and 2004 are based on the 2002-based population projections for 2003/2004.
Marriage and divorce rates in England and Wales for 1986–2000 have been calculated
using the interim revised marital status estimates (based on the original mid-2001
estimates) and are subject to further revision. Rates for 2001 are based on the mid2001 marital status estimates released on 6 November 2003, which take account of
the provisional results of the Manchester matching exercise. Rates for 2002 and 2003
are based on mid-2002 estimates released on 27 February 2004, which are consistent
with the mid-2002 population estimates released on 27 January 2004.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
55
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Table 2.1
continued
Autumn 2004
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Year and
quarter
All live
births
Number
Rate1
Numbers (thousands) and rates
Live births
outside marriage
Marriages
Divorces
Deaths
Number
Rate2
Number
Rate3
Number
Rate4
Number
Rate1
Infant
mortality5
Number
Rate2
Neonatal
mortality6
Number
Rate2
Perinatal
mortality7
Number
Rate8
Wales
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
33.4
35.8
37.0
38.1
34.9
11.9
12.7
13.1
13.3
12.1
2.9
4.0
7.8
12.3
14.4
86
112
211
323
412
19.5
19.8
19.5
16.6
14.8
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
7.9
8.6
8.4
..
..
..
..
..
36.3
35.0
34.7
34.1
34.6
13.0
12.4
12.3
11.9
12.0
0.46
0.45
0.35
0.25
0.20
13.7
12.6
9.5
6.6
5.6
0.32
0.29
0.21
0.16
0.13
9.6
8.1
5.6
4.1
3.6
0.64
0.51
0.38
0.30
0.26
19.0
14.1
10.3
7.9
7.5
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
32.1
31.3
30.6
30.2
31.4P
11.1
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.7P
14.8
14.8
14.8
15.0
15.8P
461
472
483
497
503p
14.0
14.1
13.0
13.5p
..
..
..
..
..
..
7.5
7.2
7.4
7.6p
7.7p
..
..
..
..
..
35.0
33.3
33.0
33.2
33.8p
12.1
11.5
11.3
11.4
11.6p
0.20
0.17
0.16
0.14
0.13p
6.1
5.3
5.4
4.5
4.1p
0.13
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10p
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.1p
0.25
0.23
0.23
0.24
0.24p
7.7
7.2
7.5
7.7
7.5p
2002 Sept
Dec
7.9
7.7
10.7
10.4
4.0
3.9
505
513
5.8p
2.4p
..
..
1.9P
1.9p
..
..
7.7
8.5
10.5
11.6
0.04
0.03
4.6
4.0
0.03
0.02
3.7
3.1
0.07
0.06
8.7
8.0
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
7.5p
7.8p
8.3p
7.8P
10.3p
10.7p
11.3p
10.6P
3.8p
3.9p
4.2p
4.0P
505p
494p
503p
511P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
2.0P
2.0P
1.9P
1.9p
..
..
..
..
9.0p
8.3P
7.7P
8.9p
12.5p
11.4P
10.4P
12.1p
0.04p
0.03P
0.04P
0.02p
4.7p
4.2P
4.6P
2.9p
0.03p
0.02P
0.03P
0.02p
4.0p
2.8P
3.5P
1.9p
0.06p
0.06P
0.07P
0.05p
7.7p
7.1P
8.2P
6.8p
2004 March
June
7.8P
7.7
10.7P
10.6p
4.0P
3.9p
514P
500p
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
8.9P
..
12.3P
..
0.05P
..
5.8P
..
0.03P
..
4.1P
..
0.07P
..
9.2P
..
Scotland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
64.9
69.1
65.8
67.0
59.3
12.5
13.4
12.9
13.2
11.6
6.0
8.5
13.6
19.5
21.4
93
122
206
291
360
37.5
36.2
35.8
33.8
30.2
53.8
47.5
42.8
38.7
32.8
8.1
9.9
12.8
12.4
12.3
6.5
8.0
10.7
10.6
10.9
65.3
63.8
63.5
61.0
60.7
12.5
12.3
12.4
12.0
11.9
0.96
0.78
0.58
0.47
0.37
14.8
11.3
8.8
7.1
6.2
0.67
0.47
0.34
0.29
0.23
10.3
6.9
5.2
4.6
3.9
1.20
0.81
0.67
0.58
0.55
18.3
11.6
10.2
8.6
9.2
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
55.1
53.1
52.5
51.3
52.4P
10.9
10.5
10.4
10.1
10.4P
22.7
22.6
22.8
22.5
23.9P
412
426
433
440
455P
29.9
30.4
29.6
29.8
20.7p
31.1
29.5
31.0
31.0
32.2P
11.9
11.1
10.6
10.8
10.0p
10.8
10.3
9.7
10.0
10.0p
60.3
57.8
57.4
58.1
58.4p
11.9
11.4
11.3
11.5
11.6p
0.28
0.31
0.29
0.27
0.27p
5.0
5.7
5.5
5.3
5.1p
0.18
0.21
0.20
0.16
0.18p
3.3
4.0
3.8
3.2
3.4p
0.42
0.45
0.45
0.39
0.42p
7.6
8.4
8.5
7.6
8.0p
2002 Sept
Dec
13.2
13.1
10.4
10.2
5.7
5.9
431
450
11.9
6.2
48.9
25.3
2.6
2.7
9.6
10.0
13.6
15.2
10.7
12.0
0.07
0.07
5.2
5.1
0.05
0.04
3.7
3.4
0.10
0.10
7.3
7.9
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
12.8P
12.9p
13.8p
13.0P
10.3p
10.3p
10.8p
10.2P
5.9P
5.8p
6.2p
6.0P
462p
447p
448p
464P
3.7p
8.4p
12.3P
6.3P
15.2p
34.2p
49.7P
25.5P
2.2P
2.5P
2.5P
2.7P
8.1p
9.2p
9.2P
10.0P
15.7p
14.1P
13.3P
15.3p
12.6p
11.2P
10.4P
12.0p
0.07p
0.06P
0.07P
0.07p
5.4p
4.3P
4.9P
5.6p
0.05p
0.03P
0.05P
0.05p
3.8p
2.6P
3.4P
3.8p
0.09p
0.10P
0.11P
0.12p
6.9p
8.0P
8.0P
8.9p
2004 March
13.4P
10.8P
6.3P
472P
7.7P
15.8P
2.7P
10.0P
15.3P
12.2P
0.06P
4.6P
0.04P
2.8P
0.12P
9.2P
Northern Ireland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
26.4
27.2
28.0
26.0
24.4
17.3
17.0
17.8
16.2
14.7
1.3
1.9
3.6
5.3
6.3
50
69
127
203
260
9.9
9.6
10.2
9.2
8.3
..
45.4
..
..
..
0.6
1.4
1.5
2.3
2.3
..
4.2
..
..
..
17.0
16.3
16.1
15.1
15.2
11.2
10.6
10.3
9.4
9.2
0.48
0.36
0.36
0.19
0.14
18.3
13.2
13.2
7.4
5.8
0.35
0.23
0.23
0.12
0.09
13.3
8.3
8.3
4.6
3.7
0.59
0.42
0.42
0.22
0.23
22.3
15.3
15.3
8.4
9.4
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
23.0
21.5
22.0
21.4
21.6P
13.7
12.8
13.0
12.6
12.7P
7.0
6.8
7.1
7.2
7.4P
303
318
325
335
344P
7.6
7.6
7.3
7.6P
..
..
..
..
..
..
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.3P
..
..
..
..
..
15.7
14.9
14.5
14.6
14.5p
9.3
8.9
8.6
8.6
8.5p
0.15
0.11
0.13
0.10
0.12p
6.4
5.1
6.1
4.7
5.3p
0.11
0.82
0.98
0.74
0.87p
4.8
3.8
4.5
3.5
4.0p
0.23
0.15
0.19
0.19
0.18p
10.0
7.3
8.5
8.9
8.1p
2002 Sept
Dec
5.5
5.2
13.0
12.2
1.9
1.7
335
336
3.3p
1.3p
..
..
4.9
4.9
..
..
3.5
3.7
8.3
8.6
0.02
0.03
4.2
5.2
0.02
0.02
2.9
3.8
0.05
0.05
8.6
10.1
2003 March
June
Sept
Dec
5.4P
5.4P
5.6p
5.3P
12.7p
12.7p
13.0p
12.4P
1.8p
1.8p
1.9p
1.9P
344p
331p
341p
359P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
6.6P
5.4P
5.6P
5.6P
..
..
..
..
3.9p
3.4P
3.5P
3.7p
9.2p
8.1P
8.1P
8.6p
0.03p
0.02P
0.04P
0.03p
5.0p
4.3P
6.3P
5.6p
0.02p
0.02P
0.03P
0.03p
3.7p
3.0P
4.5P
4.9p
0.04p
0.04P
0.04P
0.05p
7.8p
7.2P
7.8P
9.7p
2004 March
June
5.7P
5.4P
13.4P
12.8P
2.0P
1.8P
352P
337P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
3.9P
..
9.2P
..
0.03P
..
5.5P
..
0.02P
..
3.5P
..
0.05P
..
7.9P
..
See notes opposite.
1
Per 1,000 population of all ages.
2
Per 1,000 live births.
3
Persons marrying per 1,000 unmarried population 16 and over.
4
Persons divorcing per 1,000 married population.
5
Deaths under 1 year.
6
Deaths under 4 weeks.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
National Statistics
56
7
8
p
Stillbirths and deaths under 1 week. In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth
was changed, from baby born dead after 28 completed weeks of gestation or more, to
one born dead after 24 completed weeks of gestation or more.
Per 1,000 live births and stillbirths.
Provisional.
Population Trends 117
Table 2.2
Autumn 2004
Key demographic and health indicators
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean age
Dependency ratio
Population
Live
births
Live births
Deaths
Children1
Elderly2
TFR3
Expectation of life
(in years) at birth
Standardised UnstandOutside
Agemean age
ardised
marriage as standardised
of mother mean age of percentage mortality
at birth
mother at
of total
rate6
(years)4 birth (years) 5 live births
Males
Females
Infant
mortality
rate7
69.6
70.8
71.9
73.2
74.2
75.2
76.8
77.7
78.7
79.4
14.5
11.2
9.5
7.4
6.1
75.0
75.3
75.7
..
..
79.9
80.1
80.4
..
..
5.8
5.6
5.5
5.2
5.3p
..
71.1
72.2
73.4
74.5
..
77.0
77.9
78.9
79.6
14.2
10.9
9.5
7.3
6.1
75.3
75.6
76.0
..
..
80.1
80.3
80.6
..
..
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3p
..
70.4
71.6
73.1
73.9
..
76.4
77.5
78.8
79.1
13.7
12.6
9.5
6.6
5.6
74.7
74.9
75.4
..
..
79.6
79.8
80.1
..
..
6.1
5.3
5.4
4.5
4.1p
United Kingdom
1976
56,216.1
1981
56,357.5
1986
56,683.8
1991
57,438.9
1996
58,139.48
675.5
730.7
754.8
792.3
733.2
680.8
658.0
660.7
646.2
636.0
42.1
37.1
33.5
33.2
33.8
29.5
29.7
29.7
30.0
30.0
1.74
1.82
1.78
1.82
1.73
..
27.0
27.4
27.7
28.2
26.4
26.8
27.0
27.7
28.6
9.0
12.5
21.4
29.8
35.5
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
58,635.28
58,816.68
59,050.89
59,231.910
..
700.0
679.0
669.1
668.8
695.6p
632.1
608.4
602.3
606.3
612.0P
33.4
33.1
32.6
32.2
..
29.9
29.9
29.8
29.8
..
1.69
1.64
1.6311
1.6411
1.7112P
28.4
28.5
28.6
28.7
28.8p
28.9
29.1
29.2
29.3
29.4p
38.8
39.5
40.1
40.6
41.5P
England
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
46,659.9
46,820.8
47,187.6
47,875.0
48,496.28
550.4
598.2
623.6
660.8
614.2
560.3
541.0
544.5
534.0
524.0
41.4
36.4
33.1
32.9
33.6
29.7
29.9
29.8
30.0
30.0
1.70
1.79
1.76
1.81
1.73
..
..
27.4
27.7
28.2
26.4
26.8
27.0
27.7
28.7
9.2
12.9
21.4
30.1
35.5
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
48,987.08
49,166.68
49,389.79
49,561.810
..
589.5
572.8
563.7
565.7
589.9p
519.6
501.0
496.1
499.2
504.1p
33.4
33.0
32.5
32.1
..
29.9
29.8
29.7
29.7
..
1.70
1.65
1.6411
1.6511
1.7312P
28.4
28.5
28.6
28.7
28.9p
29.0
29.2
29.3
29.4
29.4p
38.5
39.1
39.6
40.1
40.9p
Wales
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2,799.3
2,813.5
2,810.9
2,873.0
2,889.38
33.4
35.8
37.0
38.1
34.9
36.3
35.0
34.7
34.1
34.6
42.0
37.6
34.3
34.4
34.8
30.9
31.6
32.5
33.5
33.7
1.78
1.86
1.86
1.88
1.81
..
..
26.9
27.1
27.5
26.0
26.6
26.5
27.0
27.8
8.7
11.2
21.1
32.3
41.2
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2,897.28
2,904.18
2,907.6
2,918.7
..
32.1
31.3
30.6
30.2
31.4p
35.0
33.3
33.0
33.2
33.8p
34.4
34.1
33.8
33.3
..
33.6
33.5
33.6
33.6
..
1.72
1.68
1.6611
1.6311
1.7112P
27.6
27.7
27.8
28.0
28.1p
28.1
28.2
28.3
28.4
28.5p
46.1
47.2
48.3
49.7
50.3p
Scotland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
5,233.4
5,180.2
5,111.8
5,083.3
5,092.2
64.9
69.1
65.8
67.0
59.3
65.3
63.8
63.5
61.0
60.7
44.7
38.2
33.6
32.4
32.3
28.4
28.4
28.1
28.9
29.2
1.80
1.84
1.67
1.69
1.56
..
..
27.1
27.5
28.0
26.0
26.3
26.6
27.4
28.5
9.3
12.2
20.6
29.1
36.0
11,675
10,849
10,120
9,216
8,791
68.2
69.1
70.2
71.4
72.2
74.4
75.3
76.2
77.1
77.9
14.8
11.3
8.8
7.1
6.2
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
5,072.0
5,062.9
5,064.2
5,054.8
..
55.1
53.1
52.5
51.3
52.4p
60.3
57.8
57.4
58.1
58.4p
31.7
31.4
30.8
30.3
..
29.7
29.8
30.0
30.2
..
1.51
1.48
1.49
1.48
1.5412P
28.3
28.4
28.5
28.6
28.8p
28.9
29.0
29.2
29.2
29.3p
41.2
42.6
43.3
44.0
45.5p
8,493
8,082
7,930
7,955
8,983
72.8
73.1
73.3
..
..
78.4
78.6
78.8
..
..
5.0
5.7
5.5
5.3
5.1p
Northern Ireland
1976
1,523.5
1981
1,543.0
1986
1,573.5
1991
1,607.3
1996
1,661.8
26.4
27.2
28.0
26.0
24.4
17.0
16.3
16.1
15.1
15.2
56.1
50.6
46.1
44.1
41.8
25.3
25.3
25.5
26.1
25.5
2.70
2.59
2.45
2.16
1.96
..
28.1
28.1
28.3
28.7
27.4
27.5
27.5
28.0
28.8
5.0
7.0
12.8
20.3
26.0
11,746
10,567
10,071
8,303
7,742
67.5
69.2
70.9
72.6
73.8
73.8
75.5
77.1
78.4
79.2
18.3
13.2
10.2
7.4
5.8
28.8
29.0
29.1
29.2
29.3p
29.0
29.2
29.4
29.5
29.5p
30.3
31.8
32.5
33.5
34.4p
7,699
7,279
6,976
6,930
6,825
74.5
74.8
75.2
..
..
79.6
79.8
80.1
..
..
6.4
5.1
6.1
4.7
5.3p
1999
1,679.0
23.0
15.7
40.2
25.5
1.86
2000
1,682.9
21.5
14.9
39.5
25.4
1.75
2001
1,689.3
22.0
14.5
38.6
25.5
1.80
2002
1,696.6
21.4
14.6
37.9
25.7
1.77
2003
..
21.6p
14.5p
..
1.8012P
Notes: Some of these indicators are also in other tables. They are brought together to make
comparison easier.
Figures for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each
year up to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993 to 2002.
Provisional figures for 2003 relate to registrations.
From 1981 births to non-resident mothers in Northern Ireland are excluded from
the figures for Northern Ireland, and the United Kingdom.
1 Percentage of children under 16 to working population (males 16–64 and females 16–59).
2 Percentage of males 65 and over and females 60 and over to working population (males
16–64 and females 16–59).
3 TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if
current patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes
called the TPFR (total period fertility rate).
4 Standardised to take account of the age structure of the population.
5 Unstandardised and therefore takes no account of the age structure of the population.
6 Per million population. The age-standardised mortality rate makes allowances for changes
10,486
9,506
8,914
8,168
7,589
7,325
6,982
6,81711
6,77711
6,81113
10,271
9,298
8,725
8,017
7,420
7,146
6,821
6,66111
6,61611
6,65413
10,858
9,846
9,043
8,149
7,761
7,641
7,180
7,024 11
6,963 11
7,086 13
in the age structure of the population. See Notes to tables.
7 Deaths under one year per 1,000 live births.
8 These are interim revised population estimates for the UK, England, and Wales, which
were released on 23 October 2003. The interim revised estimates are subject to revision.
9 Mid-2001 UK, England and Wales, and England population estimates were updated on 4
November 2003 to take account of the provisional results from the Manchester matching
exercise.
10 Mid-2002 population estimates are those published on 27 January 2004.
11 Based on the mid-year population estimates released on 26 September 2003. They do
not take account of the provisional results of the Manchester matching exercise nor
the minor revision to the mid-2002 estimate for England in respect of the armed forces
published on 27 January 2004.
12 Based on the 2002-based population projections for 2003.
13 Based on the revised mid-2002 population estimates published on 27 January 2004.
p Provisional.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
57
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Table 3.1
Autumn 2004
Live births: age of mother
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), rates, mean age and TFRs
Age of mother at birth3,4
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean1
age
(years)
All
ages
Under
20
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Age-specific fertility rates3,4
Total live births (numbers)
1961
20–24
TFR5
Mean2
age
(years)
811.3
59.8
249.8
248.5
152.3
77.5
23.3
27.6
89.2
37.3
172.6
176.9
103.1
48.1
15.0
27.4
2.77
1964(max)
876.0
76.7
276.1
270.7
153.5
75.4
23.6
27.2
92.9
42.5
181.6
187.3
107.7
49.8
13.7
27.3
2.93
1966
849.8
86.7
285.8
253.7
136.4
67.0
20.1
26.8
90.5
47.7
176.0
174.0
97.3
45.3
12.5
27.1
2.75
1971
783.2
82.6
285.7
247.2
109.6
45.2
12.7
26.2
83.5
50.6
152.9
153.2
77.1
32.8
8.7
26.6
2.37
584.3
57.9
182.2
220.7
90.8
26.1
6.5
26.4
60.4
32.2
109.3
118.7
57.2
18.6
4.8
26.5
1.71
1977(min)
569.3
54.5
174.5
207.9
100.8
25.5
6.0
26.5
58.1
29.4
103.7
117.5
58.6
18.2
4.4
26.6
1.66
1981
634.5
56.6
194.5
215.8
126.6
34.2
6.9
26.8
61.3
28.1
105.3
129.1
68.6
21.7
4.9
27.0
1.80
1986
661.0
57.4
192.1
229.0
129.5
45.5
7.6
27.0
60.6
30.1
92.7
123.8
78.0
24.6
4.8
27.4
1.77
1991
699.2
52.4
173.4
248.7
161.3
53.6
9.8
27.7
63.6
33.0
89.3
119.4
86.7
32.1
5.3
27.7
1.82
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003p
689.7
673.5
664.7
648.1
649.5
643.1
635.9
621.9
604.4
594.6
596.1
621.5
47.9
45.1
42.0
41.9
44.7
46.4
48.3
48.4
45.8
44.2
43.5
44.2
163.3
152.0
140.2
130.7
125.7
118.6
113.5
110.7
107.7
108.8
110.9
116.6
244.8
236.0
229.1
217.4
211.1
202.8
193.1
181.9
170.7
159.9
153.4
156.9
166.8
171.1
179.6
181.2
186.4
187.5
188.5
185.3
180.1
178.9
180.5
187.2
56.7
58.8
63.1
65.5
69.5
74.9
78.9
81.3
85.0
86.5
90.5
97.4
10.2
10.5
10.7
11.3
12.1
12.9
13.6
14.3
15.1
16.3
17.3
19.1
27.9
28.0
28.4
28.5
28.6
28.8
28.9
29.0
29.1
29.2
29.3
29.4
63.6
62.7
62.0
60.5
60.6
60.0
59.3
57.9
56.0
54.8
54.8
56.9
31.7
30.9
28.9
28.5
29.7
30.3
31.3
31.1
29.5
28.1
27.1
27.0
86.2
82.6
79.1
76.4
77.0
75.9
74.8
73.1
70.2
69.2
69.2
71.5
117.5
114.4
112.4
108.7
106.8
104.5
101.5
98.4
94.5
91.9
91.6
95.8
87.3
87.3
89.3
88.2
89.7
89.8
90.7
89.7
88.1
88.2
89.9
94.9
33.4
34.1
35.8
36.4
37.5
39.3
40.4
40.6
41.4
41.6
43.2
46.5
5.8
6.2
6.4
6.8
7.2
7.6
7.9
8.1
8.4
8.8
9.1
9.8
27.8
27.9
28.1
28.2
28.2
28.3
28.3
28.4
28.5
28.6
28.7
28.8
1.80
1.76
1.75
1.72
1.74
1.73
1.73
1.70
1.66
1.64
1.65
1.73
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
148.7
150.7
155.0
150.1
11.4
11.1
11.8
11.5
26.4
26.0
27.8
27.5
42.5
42.8
43.6
41.8
44.1
45.7
46.2
44.1
20.6
21.4
21.7
21.4
3.6
3.7
3.9
3.9
29.1
29.2
29.1
29.1
55.4
56.1
57.1
55.3
30
29
30
29
69
68
72
71
95
95
96
92
87
90
90
86
40
42
42
41
8
8
9
9
28.5
28.6
28.5
28.5
1.64
1.66
1.69
1.64
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
145.5
148.8
153.0
147.4
11.0
10.8
11.4
11.1
26.5
26.4
28.1
27.8
39.8
40.3
41.0
38.9
43.3
45.5
46.4
43.7
21.0
21.7
22.0
21.8
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.2
29.2
29.3
29.2
29.2
54.5
55.1
56.6
53.9
28
27
29
28
69
68
72
70
91
92
94
89
86
90
92
86
41
42
42
42
9
9
9
9
28.6
28.7
28.6
28.6
1.62
1.64
1.68
1.62
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
143.3
147.2
155.0
150.6
10.5
10.4
11.4
11.2
26.5
26.7
28.9
28.8
37.4
37.9
39.9
38.2
43.2
45.5
46.9
45.0
21.6
22.4
23.4
23.0
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.5
29.3
29.4
29.3
29.3
49.7
54.1
56.5
54.8
26
26
28
27
66
66
71
71
92
92
95
91
88
92
93
89
42
43
44
44
9
9
9
9
28.7
28.8
28.7
28.7
1.61
1.64
1.70
1.66
2003 Marchp
Junep
Septp
Decp
147.4
155.1
162.8
156.0
10.9
10.7
11.5
11.2
27.9
28.5
30.5
29.7
37.5
39.3
41.0
39.1
44.0
47.4
49.3
46.5
22.6
24.5
25.6
24.6
4.6
4.7
5.0
4.8
29.3
29.5
29.4
29.4
54.7
57.0
59.1
56.0
27
26
28
27
69
70
74
72
93
96
99
95
90
96
99
94
44
47
49
47
10
10
10
10
28.8
28.9
28.9
28.8
1.66
1.73
1.80
1.72
2004 MarchP 155.1
154.9
JuneP
11.0
10.5
29.3
28.9
38.7
38.7
46.5
47.0
24.7
24.7
4.9
4.9
29.4
29.5
56.9
56.8
27
25
71
70
94
94
99
101
48
48
10
10
28.9
29.0
1.74
1.74
2
1976
2
Notes: The rates for women of all ages, under 20, and 40 and over are based upon the populations of women aged 15–44, 15–19, and 40–44 respectively.
1 Unstandardised and therefore takes no account of the age structure of the population.
2 Standardised to take account of the age structure of the population. This measure is more appropriate for use when analysing trends or making comparisons between different
geographies.
3 Births per 1,000 women in the age-group; all quarterly age-specific fertility rates are adjusted for days in the quarter. They are not adjusted for seasonality.
4 All 2001 and 2002 birth rates for England and Wales are based on the revised mid-2001 and the mid-2002 population estimates released on 26 September 2003. They do not take account
of the provisional results of the Manchester matching exercise nor the minor revision to the mid-2002 estimate for England in respect of the armed forces published on 27 January 2004.
Birth rates for 2003 and 2004 are based on the 2002-based population projections for 2003/2004.
5 TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if current patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes called the TPFR
(total period fertility rate). During the post Second World War period the TFR reached a maximum in 1964 and a minimum in 1977.
P Provisional
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
National Statistics
58
Population Trends 117
Autumn 2004
Live births outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration
Table 3.2
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), mean age and percentages
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
Registration2
Age of mother at birth
35–39
40 and
over
Mean1
age
(years)
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Joint
Sole
Same3 Different3
address address
Percentage of total live births
in age-group
As a percentage of all
births outside marriage
{
Live births outside marriage (numbers)
65.7
53.8
81.0
21.6
19.8
26.4
22.0
16.6
28.8
11.5
9.7
14.3
6.2
4.7
7.9
3.2
2.3
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.9
23.7
23.3
23.4
8.4
9.2
12.8
26.1
34.2
46.7
7.7
9.1
14.8
4.7
4.4
6.6
5.7
5.2
6.2
7.0
8.6
3.9
9.0
10.1
12.5
45.5
51.0
58.2
54.5
49.0
41.8
1986
1991
141.3
211.3
39.6
43.4
54.1
77.8
27.7
52.4
13.1
25.7
5.7
9.8
1.1
2.1
23.8
24.8
21.4
30.2
69.0
82.9
28.2
44.9
12.1
21.1
10.1
16.0
12.6
18.3
14.7
21.3
46.6
54.6
19.6
19.8
33.8
25.6
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
215.2
216.5
215.5
219.9
232.7
40.1
38.2
35.9
36.3
39.3
77.1
75.0
71.0
69.7
71.1
55.9
57.5
58.5
59.6
62.3
28.9
31.4
34.0
37.0
40.5
10.9
11.9
13.4
14.4
16.2
2.3
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.2
25.2
25.5
25.8
26.0
26.1
31.2
32.2
32.4
33.9
35.8
83.7
84.8
85.5
86.6
88.0
47.2
49.4
50.6
53.3
56.5
22.8
24.4
25.5
27.4
29.5
17.3
18.4
18.9
20.4
21.7
19.3
20.2
21.2
22.0
23.4
22.9
23.5
25.2
26.2
26.7
55.4
54.8
57.5
58.1
58.1
20.7
22.0
19.8
20.1
19.9
23.9
23.2
22.7
21.8
21.9
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003p
238.2
240.6
241.9
238.6
238.1
242.0
257.2
41.1
43.0
43.0
41.1
39.5
38.9
39.9
69.5
67.8
67.5
67.5
68.1
70.2
75.7
63.4
62.4
61.2
59.1
56.8
55.8
58.2
42.2
43.9
45.0
43.9
45.2
46.4
49.2
18.2
19.6
20.8
22.3
23.3
25.1
27.8
3.7
3.9
4.3
4.7
5.1
5.6
6.4
26.2
26.3
26.4
26.5
26.7
26.8
26.9
37.0
37.8
38.9
39.5
40.0
40.6
41.4
88.7
89.1
89.0
89.7
89.5
89.5
90.2
58.6
59.7
61.0
62.6
62.6
63.3
64.9
31.3
32.3
33.6
34.6
35.5
36.4
37.1
22.5
23.3
24.3
24.4
25.3
25.7
26.3
24.3
24.8
25.6
26.2
26.9
27.7
28.5
28.6
29.0
30.2
31.0
31.6
32.2
33.3
59.5
60.9
61.8
62.7
63.2
63.7
63.5
19.3
18.3
18.2
18.2
18.4
18.5
19.0
21.2
20.8
19.9
19.2
18.4
17.8
17.4
1997 March
June
Sept
Dec
58.6
58.9
61.4
59.3
10.2
10.1
10.5
10.4
17.4
17.1
17.9
17.2
15.7
15.5
16.5
15.7
10.2
10.6
10.9
10.4
4.2
4.7
4.7
4.6
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
26.1
26.3
26.2
26.2
37.0
36.1
37.3
37.8
88.7
89.1
88.8
88.3
58.4
58.0
58.9
59.2
31.1
30.1
31.8
32.2
22.4
22.0
22.7
23.0
23.9
24.3
24.4
24.8
28.7
28.4
27.8
29.3
58.4
59.6
59.9
60.0
19.5
19.4
18.9
19.2
22.0
21.0
21.2
20.7
1998 March
June
Sept
Dec
58.5
58.4
63.2
60.5
10.4
10.3
11.3
11.0
16.5
16.2
17.9
17.2
15.3
15.4
16.3
15.4
10.7
10.8
11.5
10.9
4.6
4.7
5.2
5.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.0
26.3
26.3
26.3
26.3
37.5
36.8
38.1
38.9
89.0
89.6
89.2
88.5
59.5
59.1
60.0
60.4
31.9
31.8
32.3
33.3
23.1
22.5
23.6
24.0
24.4
24.0
25.2
25.7
29.6
28.3
28.5
29.7
60.5
61.0
60.9
61.2
18.4
18.2
18.4
18.4
21.1
20.8
20.7
20.4
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
59.0
59.8
62.9
60.2
10.8
10.5
11.1
10.6
16.4
16.5
17.7
17.0
15.0
15.3
16.0
14.9
10.9
11.2
11.7
11.1
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.3
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
26.3
26.5
26.4
26.4
38.8
38.0
39.3
39.5
89.7
89.2
88.7
88.4
60.5
60.6
61.7
61.2
33.4
33.0
34.1
34.0
24.1
23.4
24.7
24.8
25.4
25.3
25.6
26.2
29.5
31.3
29.3
30.8
61.4
61.6
62.2
62.0
18.2
18.2
18.1
18.4
20.4
20.1
19.6
19.5
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
59.0
57.9
61.7
60.1
10.2
10.0
10.6
10.3
16.5
16.1
17.6
17.3
14.8
14.4
15.3
14.7
10.9
10.9
11.3
10.9
5.4
5.5
5.7
5.7
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
26.5
26.6
26.5
26.5
39.7
38.5
39.8
40.0
89.7
89.7
89.7
89.5
62.6
61.9
63.3
62.8
34.8
33.5
35.0
35.2
24.7
23.8
24.5
24.7
26.1
25.7
26.5
26.6
31.7
30.6
30.4
31.4
62.5
62.9
62.7
62.6
18.1
17.8
18.1
18.6
19.5
19.2
19.2
18.8
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
58.0
58.1
61.8
60.2
9.9
9.6
10.2
9.9
16.7
16.3
17.6
17.5
13.9
14.1
14.7
14.1
10.8
11.2
12.0
11.3
5.7
5.7
6.0
5.9
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.4
26.5
26.7
26.7
26.7
39.8
39.1
40.4
40.9
90.4
89.0
89.5
89.2
63.0
61.5
62.6
63.1
34.9
34.9
35.9
36.4
24.8
24.5
25.8
25.9
26.9
26.4
27.2
27.2
28.0
32.2
32.2
33.9
62.5
63.3
63.5
63.4
18.7
18.6
18.4
18.6
18.8
18.6
18.2
18.0
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
58.0
58.3
63.4
62.3
9.4
9.3
10.2
10.0
16.7
16.6
18.4
18.4
13.6
13.5
14.6
14.1
10.9
11.4
12.3
11.9
6.0
6.1
6.5
6.5
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
26.8
26.8
26.8
26.8
40.5
39.6
40.9
41.4
89.4
89.4
89.3
89.7
63.0
62.2
63.8
64.1
36.4
35.6
36.6
36.9
25.4
25.0
26.1
26.4
27.7
27.2
27.9
28.0
31.5
31.7
32.7
32.8
63.2
64.2
63.9
63.3
18.5
18.2
18.5
18.9
18.3
17.7
17.5
17.8
2003 Marchp
Junep
Septp
Decp
61.0
62.8
67.6
65.8
9.8
9.6
10.3
10.2
18.0
18.3
20.0
19.5
13.9
14.2
15.3
14.9
11.6
12.2
13.0
12.5
6.3
6.9
7.3
7.3
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.6
26.8
27.0
26.9
26.9
41.4
40.5
41.5
42.2
90.1
90.0
90.2
90.4
64.5
64.0
65.6
65.6
37.0
36.2
38.3
38.0
26.9
25.7
26.4
27.7
29.1
28.3
28.6
29.5
33.3
33.7
33.3
32.9
63.0
64.0
63.7
63.3
18.9
18.5
19.3
19.4
18.1
17.4
18.0
17.4
2004 MarchP
JuneP
65.2
64.0
10.1
9.6
19.2
18.8
14.8
14.5
12.5
12.3
7.0
7.1
1.7
1.7
26.9
27.0
42.0
41.3
91.3
91.2
65.7
65.1
38.2
37.5
26.8
26.1
28.3
28.5
34.0
34.0
63.2
64.1
19.4
19.4
17.4
16.5
{
1971
1976
1981
1
2
3
p
The mean ages in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of the structure of the population by age or marital status.
Births outside marriage can be registered by both the mother and father (joint) or by the mother alone (sole).
Usual address(es) of parents.
Provisional.
59
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Autumn 2004
Live births: within marriage, within marriage to remarried women, age of mother and birth order1
Table 3.3
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands) and mean age
2
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age
(years)
Age of mother at birth
All
ages
Under
20
Live births within marriage
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean2
age
(years)
Live births within marriage to remarried women
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
717.5
530.5
553.5
519.7
487.9
428.2
416.8
404.9
395.3
380.0
61.1
38.1
30.1
17.8
8.9
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.3
263.7
165.6
165.7
138.0
95.6
61.0
54.7
49.1
45.7
43.2
235.7
211.0
201.5
201.3
196.3
157.9
148.8
139.4
130.7
120.7
103.4
86.1
118.7
116.4
135.5
144.2
145.9
145.3
144.6
140.3
42.1
23.9
31.5
39.8
43.8
51.1
53.3
56.7
59.3
60.5
11.6
5.8
6.0
6.4
7.7
8.4
8.9
9.2
9.6
9.9
26.4
26.6
27.2
27.9
28.9
29.8
30.0
30.3
30.5
30.6
19.4
26.7
38.8
41.7
39.4
33.3
32.6
31.4
30.2
27.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
2.9
3.6
2.6
1.6
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
6.6
10.5
13.4
13.2
10.8
7.2
6.4
5.8
5.1
4.3
6.1
8.7
14.1
15.4
15.8
14.0
13.9
13.1
12.4
11.3
3.4
3.6
6.2
8.7
9.1
9.1
9.3
9.5
9.7
9.1
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.7
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
33.1
30.4
30.9
31.7
32.4
33.2
33.4
33.6
33.9
34.1
2000
2001
2002
2003p
365.8
356.5
354.1
364.2
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.3
40.3
40.7
40.7
40.9
111.6
103.1
97.6
98.7
136.2
133.7
134.1
138.0
62.7
63.2
65.4
69.6
10.4
11.1
11.8
12.7
30.8
30.9
31.0
31.2
25.8
23.9
22.8
22.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
3.7
3.1
2.7
2.4
10.4
9.5
8.9
8.4
8.9
8.6
8.5
8.8
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
34.3
34.5
34.7
35.0
2002 Sept
Dec
91.6
88.3
1.2
1.2
10.5
10.3
25.3
24.1
34.6
33.1
16.9
16.6
3.0
3.0
31.0
31.0
5.8
5.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.7
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.1
0.6
0.6
34.7
34.8
2003 Marchp
Junep
Septp
Decp
86.4
92.4
95.2
90.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
9.9
10.3
10.5
10.2
23.6
25.1
25.7
24.2
32.4
35.2
36.3
34.1
16.4
17.6
18.3
17.4
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.2
31.1
31.2
31.2
31.2
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.2
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.7
34.9
34.9
34.9
35.1
2004 Marchp
Junep
89.9
90.9
1.0
0.9
10.0
10.1
23.9
24.2
34.0
34.8
17.7
17.7
3.2
3.3
30.8
30.8
5.3
5.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.5
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
0.6
0.6
34.8
34.7
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
283.6
217.2
224.3
206.9
193.7
168.1
163.0
157.0
155.7
153.4
49.5
30.2
23.6
13.8
6.7
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.3
135.8
85.4
89.5
74.7
51.2
32.3
28.9
25.9
24.3
23.5
74.8
77.2
77.2
79.3
84.5
71.0
67.2
63.1
60.6
57.4
17.2
19.7
27.8
30.8
40.2
46.6
47.7
48.1
49.5
50.0
5.1
3.9
5.4
7.5
9.7
12.1
13.1
13.8
15.0
16.1
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.3
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
23.9
24.8
25.3
26.2
27.5
28.5
28.8
29.0
29.2
29.3
240.8
203.6
205.7
189.2
178.3
158.1
153.8
150.4
146.9
139.5
10.7
7.4
6.1
3.6
2.0
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
93.6
62.5
59.0
47.5
32.8
20.6
18.5
16.6
15.5
14.4
94.1
91.8
82.7
78.9
73.9
57.3
53.4
50.0
46.4
41.8
31.8
34.7
47.7
45.5
53.0
58.5
59.1
59.4
58.9
56.6
8.9
6.2
9.1
12.3
14.7
18.1
19.2
20.7
22.2
22.6
1.7
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.9
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.8
3.1
26.2
26.8
27.4
28.0
28.9
30.0
30.3
30.5
30.7
30.9
2000
2001
2002
2003p
146.5
143.9
145.2
151.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.5
21.6
22.2
22.4
22.2
52.7
48.8
47.1
48.4
49.4
49.7
51.0
54.2
16.6
16.8
18.1
19.6
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.1
29.6
29.6
29.8
29.9
134.7
132.2
130.3
132.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
13.7
13.7
13.5
13.9
38.4
35.7
33.0
32.5
54.8
53.8
53.7
54.3
23.8
24.8
25.6
27.1
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.2
31.1
31.2
31.4
31.5
2002 Sept
Dec
37.9
37.5
1.0
1.0
5.9
5.8
12.3
12.1
13.3
13.2
4.7
4.8
0.7
0.7
29.7
29.8
33.5
31.3
0.2
0.2
3.4
3.3
8.5
7.7
13.9
12.8
6.6
6.4
1.0
1.0
31.4
31.4
2003 Marchp
Junep
Septp
Dec
35.7
37.3
39.5
38.4
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.6
11.5
12.1
12.7
12.2
12.7
13.3
14.3
13.9
4.6
4.8
5.1
5.0
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
29.9
29.9
30.0
30.0
31.3
34.8
34.7
32.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.4
7.8
8.5
8.4
7.8
12.6
14.5
14.3
13.0
6.3
7.1
7.1
6.6
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
31.4
31.5
31.5
31.5
2004 Marchp
Junep
36.9
37.0
0.8
0.8
5.3
5.4
11.7
11.8
13.3
13.2
5.0
4.9
0.8
0.9
29.7
29.7
33.0
34.8
0.2
0.2
3.4
3.5
7.8
8.1
13.4
14.2
7.0
7.0
1.1
1.1
31.2
31.2
First live births
Second live births
Fourth and higher order live births3
Third live births
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003p
111.7
71.0
82.4
80.8
76.1
66.7
65.3
63.2
60.4
56.4
54.9
52.1
50.3
52.0
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
26.6
14.4
14.1
12.7
9.4
6.5
5.8
5.3
4.7
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
43.6
29.8
29.5
30.2
26.8
20.5
19.6
18.1
16.4
14.7
14.1
12.8
11.8
12.1
27.9
19.5
28.7
25.6
27.5
26.1
26.0
25.1
24.0
22.3
21.1
19.8
19.0
19.2
10.4
5.8
8.7
10.5
10.5
11.7
12.0
12.7
13.1
13.0
13.5
13.2
13.1
14.1
2.2
1.1
1.0
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.6
28.7
28.8
29.5
29.9
30.4
31.1
31.3
31.5
31.8
32.0
32.1
32.2
32.3
32.5
81.4
38.8
41.1
42.7
39.8
35.3
34.7
34.2
32.3
30.7
29.7
28.3
28.2
28.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.6
3.3
3.1
3.1
2.3
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
23.2
12.2
12.0
13.0
11.1
9.0
8.6
8.1
7.4
6.8
6.4
5.9
5.6
5.7
26.5
12.1
14.5
14.5
14.8
13.1
13.1
12.7
12.1
11.4
10.9
10.4
10.3
10.2
17.6
8.0
8.3
9.4
8.9
9.2
9.0
9.4
9.0
8.8
8.7
8.4
8.5
8.8
6.5
3.1
3.2
2.8
2.7
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
30.7
30.7
31.1
31.2
31.6
32.0
32.2
32.4
32.6
32.7
32.8
33.0
33.1
33.1
2002 Sept
Dec
13.1
12.4
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.0
3.1
3.0
4.9
4.5
3.5
3.2
0.6
0.6
32.4
32.3
7.1
7.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
1.4
1.4
2.6
2.6
2.2
2.1
0.7
0.7
33.1
33.2
2003 Marchp
Junep
Septp
Decp
12.5
13.1
13.7
12.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
2.9
4.6
4.9
5.1
4.6
3.3
3.5
3.8
3.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
32.3
32.4
32.5
32.6
6.9
7.1
7.3
7.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.1
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
33.1
33.2
33.0
33.1
2004 Marchp
Junep
12.9
12.9
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
2.9
4.8
4.8
3.4
3.5
0.6
0.7
31.9
32.1
7.1
7.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
1.4
1.4
2.6
2.5
2.2
2.2
0.7
0.7
34.3
32.7
1
2
3
p
Birth order is based on all live births within marriage to the mother by her present or any former husband.
The mean ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age, marital status or parity.
Mean age at birth refers to fourth births only.
Provisional.
National Statistics
60
Population Trends 117
Table 4.1
Autumn 2004
Conceptions: age of women at conception
England and Wales (residents)
Numbers (thousands) and rates; and percentage terminated by abortion
Age of woman at conception
Year and quarter
All ages
Under 16
Under 18
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and over
(a) numbers (thousands)
1991
1996
853.7
816.9
7.5
8.9
40.1
43.5
101.6
94.9
233.3
179.8
281.5
252.6
167.5
200.0
57.6
75.5
12.1
14.1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
20021
800.4
797.0
774.0
767.0
763.7
..
8.3
8.5
7.9
8.1
7.9
..
43.4
44.1
42.0
41.3
41.0
41.9
96.0
101.6
98.8
97.7
96.0
..
167.3
163.3
157.6
159.0
161.6
..
242.6
232.4
218.5
209.3
199.3
..
200.9
201.4
197.1
195.3
196.7
..
78.9
82.9
86.0
88.7
92.2
..
14.7
15.4
16.0
17.0
17.8
..
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
193.1
188.7
190.0
195.2
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
10.5
10.4
10.0
10.4
25.1
24.3
23.5
24.7
40.4
39.3
38.4
40.9
53.2
51.5
52.0
52.7
48.3
47.5
49.7
49.8
21.9
21.8
22.2
22.7
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.3
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
189.2
187.4
189.3
197.9
1.9
2.1
1.9
2.0
10.2
10.2
10.0
10.6
24.3
24.0
23.1
24.6
40.4
39.8
39.2
42.3
50.0
48.8
49.5
51.1
47.8
47.7
49.9
51.3
22.3
22.8
23.2
23.9
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.7
2002 Marchp
Junep
191.6
190.4
1.9
2.0
10.3
10.5
24.1
24.2
41.3
40.7
48.8
48.2
49.0
48.8
23.7
23.8
4.6
4.8
(b) rates (conceptions per thousand women in age group)2
1991
1996
77.7
76.2
8.9
9.6
44.6
46.5
64.1
63.1
120.2
110.1
135.1
127.9
90.1
96.2
34.4
40.7
6.6
8.4
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
20021
74.7
74.3
72.0
71.0
70.4
..
9.0
9.0
8.3
8.3
8.0
..
46.4
47.8
45.9
44.3
42.7
42.8
62.8
65.8
63.5
62.8
60.9
..
107.0
107.6
104.0
103.5
102.8
..
124.9
122.2
118.1
115.9
114.5
..
96.2
96.9
95.4
95.6
97.0
..
41.4
42.4
42.9
43.2
44.4
..
8.7
8.9
9.1
9.4
9.6
..
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
72.1
70.3
70.0
71.8
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.0
45.8
45.0
42.4
43.9
65.0
62.8
60.1
62.9
106.2
103.1
99.1
105.1
117.3
114.2
115.1
117.6
94.7
93.3
96.8
97.2
43.4
43.0
42.9
43.9
9.4
9.6
9.3
9.5
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
70.9
69.4
69.2
72.3
7.8
8.4
7.7
8.1
43.5
42.9
41.2
43.6
62.9
61.1
57.9
61.6
105.1
101.8
98.7
105.9
114.8
111.8
113.4
118.2
95.2
94.3
97.8
100.7
43.7
44.1
44.3
45.5
9.7
9.5
9.3
10.0
2002 Marchp
Junep
71.5
70.2
7.7
8.1
43.0
43.0
61.4
60.5
105.3
102.0
116.5
114.8
98.6
97.3
46.0
49.7
10.0
10.2
(c) percentage terminated by abortion
1991
1996
19.4
20.8
51.1
49.2
39.9
40.0
34.5
36.2
22.2
25.7
13.4
15.6
13.7
14.1
22.0
21.2
41.6
37.6
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
20021
21.3
22.3
22.6
22.7
23.2
..
49.7
52.4
52.6
54.0
55.8
..
40.6
42.0
43.0
44.2
45.7
45.2
36.8
37.8
38.6
39.3
40.4
..
26.7
27.8
28.5
29.2
29.7
..
16.4
17.1
17.5
17.7
18.4
..
14.2
14.9
14.7
14.5
14.6
..
21.0
21.5
21.2
20.5
20.4
..
38.0
37.9
37.0
35.4
34.6
..
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
22.9
23.2
22.0
22.8
53.8
55.1
53.2
54.0
44.3
44.4
43.8
44.1
39.6
39.2
38.7
39.8
29.6
29.7
28.2
29.2
17.7
18.1
17.4
17.5
14.5
15.1
14.0
14.4
20.4
20.9
19.8
20.8
35.3
35.1
35.4
35.9
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
23.4
23.8
22.5
22.9
54.4
58.8
55.0
54.9
44.9
47.0
45.7
45.2
40.2
41.1
40.1
40.0
29.8
30.3
29.2
29.5
18.6
18.6
18.1
18.1
14.8
15.3
13.8
14.4
20.7
21.0
19.9
20.2
34.9
36.0
33.5
34.1
2002 Marchp
Junep
22.9
22.9
54.3
55.5
44.9
45.0
40.2
39.4
29.4
28.9
18.1
18.4
14.1
14.5
19.8
20.1
35.1
34.8
Notes:
Conceptions are estimates derived from birth registrations and abortion notifications.
Rates for women of all ages, under 16, under 18, under 20 and 40 and over are based on the population of women aged 15–44, 13–15, 15–17, 15–19 and 40–44 respectively.
For a quarterly analysis of conceptions under 18 for local authority areas see the National Statistics website, www.statistics.gov.uk.
1 Provisional estimates based on incomplete abortion data.
2 All rates for 2001 and 2002 are based on the revised mid-2001 and the mid-2002 population estimates released on 26 September 2003. They do not take account of the provisional results
of the Manchester matching exercise or the minor revision to the mid-2002 estimate for England in respect of the armed forces published on 27 January 2004.
p Provisional.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
61
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Table 5.1
Autumn 2004
Expectation of life at birth and selected age
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Years
Males
Year
At
birth
Females
At age
Year
5
20
30
50
60
70
80
At
birth
At age
5
20
30
50
60
70
80
United Kingdom
1981
1986
1991
1996
70.8
71.9
73.2
74.2
66.9
67.8
68.9
69.8
52.3
53.2
54.2
55.1
42.7
43.6
44.7
45.6
24.1
24.9
26.0
26.9
16.3
16.8
17.7
18.5
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.6
5.8
6.0
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
76.8
77.7
78.7
79.4
72.7
73.4
74.3
74.9
57.9
58.6
59.5
60.1
48.2
48.8
49.7
50.3
29.2
29.8
30.6
31.2
20.8
21.2
21.9
22.3
13.3
13.8
14.3
14.5
7.5
7.8
8.2
8.3
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
74.5
74.7
75.0
75.3
75.7
70.1
70.3
70.6
70.9
71.2
55.4
55.6
55.8
56.1
56.5
45.9
46.1
46.3
46.6
46.9
27.2
27.4
27.6
27.9
28.3
18.7
18.9
19.2
19.5
19.8
11.7
11.9
12.0
12.3
12.5
6.7
6.7
6.8
7.0
7.1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
79.6
79.7
79.9
80.1
80.4
75.1
75.2
75.4
75.6
75.9
60.2
60.3
60.5
60.8
61.0
50.4
50.5
50.7
51.0
51.2
31.3
31.4
31.6
31.8
32.1
22.5
22.6
22.8
23.0
23.2
14.6
14.7
14.8
15.0
15.1
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
England and Wales
1981
1986
1991
1996
71.0
72.1
73.4
74.5
67.1
68.0
69.1
70.1
52.5
53.4
54.4
55.3
42.9
43.8
44.8
45.8
24.3
25.0
26.1
27.1
16.4
16.9
17.8
18.6
10.1
10.5
11.2
11.6
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
77.0
77.9
78.9
79.6
72.9
73.6
74.5
75.1
58.1
58.8
59.7
60.2
48.3
49.0
49.9
50.4
29.4
30.0
30.8
31.3
20.9
21.4
22.0
22.5
13.4
13.9
14.4
14.6
7.5
7.9
8.3
8.4
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
74.7
75.0
75.2
75.6
75.9
70.3
70.5
70.8
71.1
71.5
55.6
55.8
56.1
56.4
56.7
46.1
46.3
46.5
46.8
47.2
27.3
27.6
27.8
28.1
28.4
18.9
19.1
19.3
19.6
19.9
11.8
11.9
12.1
12.3
12.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
79.7
79.9
80.1
80.3
80.6
75.2
75.3
75.6
75.8
76.0
60.4
60.5
60.7
60.9
61.2
50.6
50.7
50.9
51.1
51.4
31.5
31.6
31.8
32.0
32.2
22.6
22.7
22.9
23.1
23.3
14.7
14.8
14.9
15.1
15.2
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
England
1981
1986
1991
1996
71.1
72.2
73.4
74.5
67.1
68.1
69.1
70.1
52.5
53.4
54.4
55.4
42.9
43.8
44.9
45.8
24.3
25.1
26.2
27.1
16.4
17.0
17.8
18.7
10.1
10.6
11.2
11.7
5.8
6.1
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
77.0
77.9
78.9
79.6
72.9
73.6
74.5
75.1
58.2
58.8
59.7
60.3
48.4
49.0
49.9
50.4
29.4
30.0
30.8
31.3
20.9
21.4
22.0
22.5
13.4
13.9
14.4
14.6
7.5
7.9
8.3
8.4
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
74.8
75.0
75.3
75.6
76.0
70.4
70.6
70.8
71.2
71.5
55.6
55.8
56.1
56.4
56.8
46.1
46.3
46.6
46.9
47.2
27.4
27.6
27.8
28.2
28.5
18.9
19.1
19.3
19.6
19.9
11.8
12.0
12.1
12.4
12.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
79.8
79.9
80.1
80.3
80.6
75.3
75.4
75.6
75.8
76.1
60.4
60.5
60.7
61.0
61.2
50.6
50.7
50.9
51.2
51.4
31.5
31.6
31.8
32.0
32.3
22.6
22.7
22.9
23.1
23.3
14.7
14.8
14.9
15.1
15.3
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.6
8.7
Wales
1981
1986
1991
1996
70.4
71.6
73.1
73.9
66.5
67.5
68.8
69.4
51.9
52.8
54.1
54.7
42.2
43.2
44.6
45.3
23.6
24.6
25.8
26.6
15.8
16.6
17.6
18.2
9.7
10.3
11.0
11.3
5.6
6.0
6.4
6.4
1981
1986
1991
1996
76.4
77.5
78.8
79.1
72.3
73.3
74.3
74.6
57.5
58.5
59.5
59.7
47.7
48.7
49.7
49.9
28.9
29.7
30.6
30.9
20.5
21.1
21.8
22.1
13.1
13.7
14.3
14.4
7.4
7.8
8.3
8.3
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
74.2
74.4
74.7
74.9
75.4
69.8
69.9
70.2
70.5
70.9
55.1
55.2
55.5
55.7
56.2
45.6
45.8
46.0
46.3
46.7
26.9
27.1
27.4
27.6
28.0
18.5
18.6
18.9
19.1
19.5
11.6
11.6
11.9
12.0
12.3
6.6
6.6
6.8
6.8
7.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
79.3
79.4
79.6
79.8
80.1
74.8
74.9
75.0
75.2
75.5
59.9
60.0
60.2
60.4
60.6
50.1
50.2
50.4
50.6
50.8
31.0
31.1
31.3
31.5
31.8
22.2
22.3
22.5
22.6
22.9
14.5
14.5
14.6
14.7
14.9
8.4
8.3
8.4
8.4
8.5
Scotland
1981
1986
1991
1996
69.1
70.2
71.4
72.2
65.2
66.0
67.1
67.8
50.6
51.4
52.5
53.1
41.1
41.9
43.0
43.7
22.9
23.5
24.6
25.3
15.4
15.8
16.6
17.3
9.6
9.9
10.4
10.9
5.5
5.7
6.1
6.3
1981
1986
1991
1996
75.3
76.2
77.1
77.9
71.2
71.9
72.7
73.3
56.4
57.1
57.9
58.5
46.7
47.3
48.1
48.8
27.9
28.4
29.2
29.8
19.7
20.1
20.7
21.2
12.7
13.0
13.5
13.8
7.2
7.5
7.9
8.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
72.4
72.6
72.8
73.1
73.3
68.0
68.2
68.4
68.6
68.8
53.3
53.5
53.7
53.9
54.2
43.9
44.2
44.4
44.6
44.8
25.6
25.8
26.0
26.3
26.6
17.5
17.8
18.0
18.2
18.4
11.0
11.1
11.3
11.5
11.7
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.8
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
78.0
78.2
78.4
78.6
78.8
73.5
73.6
73.8
74.0
74.2
58.7
58.8
59.0
59.2
59.4
48.9
49.0
49.2
49.4
49.6
30.0
30.1
30.3
30.5
30.7
21.4
21.4
21.6
21.8
22.0
13.9
13.9
14.0
14.1
14.3
8.0
8.0
8.1
8.1
8.2
Northern Ireland
1981
1986
1991
1996
69.2
70.9
72.6
73.8
65.4
66.8
68.2
69.4
50.9
52.2
53.6
54.7
41.5
42.7
44.1
45.3
23.2
24.2
25.5
26.6
15.6
16.4
17.3
18.2
9.7
10.4
11.0
11.4
5.8
6.2
6.4
6.6
1981
1986
1991
1996
75.5
77.1
78.4
79.2
71.6
72.9
74.0
74.7
56.8
58.1
59.2
59.9
47.1
48.3
49.4
50.0
28.3
29.3
30.3
30.9
20.0
20.8
21.6
22.1
12.8
13.4
14.2
14.4
7.3
7.8
8.3
8.4
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
74.2
74.3
74.5
74.8
75.2
69.7
69.8
70.0
70.4
70.7
55.0
55.2
55.4
55.7
56.1
45.5
45.7
45.9
46.2
46.6
26.8
27.0
27.2
27.6
27.9
18.4
18.6
18.8
19.1
19.4
11.5
11.6
11.7
11.9
12.3
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.9
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
79.5
79.5
79.6
79.8
80.1
75.0
75.0
75.1
75.2
75.6
60.2
60.2
60.2
60.4
60.7
50.3
50.4
50.4
50.6
50.9
31.2
31.2
31.3
31.5
31.8
22.4
22.4
22.5
22.6
22.9
14.5
14.5
14.6
14.6
14.9
8.4
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.4
Note: Figures from 1981 are calculated from the population estimates revised in the light of the 2001 Census. Shaded figures from 1991 onwards will be further revised following publication of
the revised population estimates for England and Wales. All figures are based on a three-year period.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
National Statistics
62
Population Trends 117
Table 6.1
Autumn 2004
Deaths: age and sex
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands) and rates
Age group
Year and quarter
All ages
Under 11
1–4
5–9
10–14
15–19
20–24
25–34
35–44
45–54
55–64
65–74
75–84
85 and over
Numbers (thousands)
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
300.1
289.0
287.9
277.6
268.7
4.88
4.12
3.72
2.97
2.27
0.88
0.65
0.57
0.55
0.44
0.68
0.45
0.33
0.34
0.24
0.64
0.57
0.38
0.35
0.29
1.66
1.73
1.43
1.21
0.93
1.66
1.58
1.75
1.76
1.41
3.24
3.18
3.10
3.69
4.06
5.93
5.54
5.77
6.16
5.84
20.4
16.9
14.4
13.3
13.6
52.0
46.9
43.6
34.9
30.1
98.7
92.2
84.4
77.2
71.0
80.3
86.8
96.2
95.8
90.7
29.0
28.5
32.2
39.3
47.8
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003p
264.3
255.5
252.4
253.2
254.4
2.08
1.89
1.81
1.81
1.83
0.41
0.34
0.32
0.32
0.31
0.22
0.22
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.26
0.90
0.87
0.88
0.84
0.85
1.27
1.22
1.27
1.24
1.35
3.85
3.76
3.63
3.47
3.48
5.93
6.05
6.07
6.20
6.44
13.6
13.4
13.3
12.9
12.7
28.7
27.9
27.5
27.7
28.3
64.3
60.6
57.5
56.3
55.1
90.4
87.1
87.0
88.3
89.6
52.3
51.9
52.7
53.6
54.1
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
298.5
288.9
293.3
292.5
291.5
3.46
2.90
2.59
2.19
1.69
0.59
0.53
0.49
0.44
0.32
0.45
0.30
0.25
0.25
0.18
0.42
0.37
0.27
0.22
0.20
0.62
0.65
0.56
0.46
0.43
0.67
0.64
0.67
0.64
0.51
1.94
1.82
1.65
1.73
1.85
4.04
3.74
3.83
3.70
3.66
12.8
10.5
8.8
8.4
8.9
29.6
27.2
25.8
21.3
18.2
67.1
62.8
58.4
54.2
50.2
104.7
103.6
106.5
103.3
96.7
72.1
73.9
83.6
95.7
108.7
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003p
291.8
280.1
277.9
280.4
284.7
1.55
1.49
1.43
1.32
1.48
0.30
0.25
0.27
0.24
0.28
0.17
0.16
0.19
0.16
0.16
0.22
0.18
0.18
0.19
0.21
0.39
0.38
0.38
0.39
0.37
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.43
0.49
1.67
1.69
1.59
1.61
1.64
3.79
3.87
3.77
3.77
3.88
9.0
9.1
8.9
8.7
8.6
18.0
17.6
17.6
17.7
18.0
45.1
42.2
40.5
39.6
39.0
93.9
89.3
88.8
90.0
92.7
117.2
113.4
113.9
116.3
118.0
Rates (deaths per 1,000 population in each age group)
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
12.5
12.0
11.8
11.2
10.7
16.2
12.6
11.0
8.3
6.8
0.65
0.53
0.44
0.40
0.32
0.34
0.27
0.21
0.21
0.14
0.31
0.29
0.23
0.23
0.18
0.88
0.82
0.72
0.72
0.60
0.96
0.83
0.83
0.89
0.87
0.92
0.89
0.88
0.94
1.00
2.09
1.83
1.68
1.76
1.67
6.97
6.11
5.27
4.56
4.05
19.6
17.7
16.6
13.9
11.9
50.3
45.6
42.8
38.1
34.5
116.4
105.2
101.2
93.1
85.0
243.2
226.5
215.4
205.6
199.0
1999
2000
20012
20022
20033p
10.4
10.1
9.9
9.9
9.9
6.5
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.7
0.31
0.26
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.12
0.13
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.15
0.56
0.54
0.53
0.49
0.50
0.85
0.81
0.81
0.78
0.85
0.98
0.97
0.96
0.94
0.94
1.60
1.59
1.57
1.58
1.64
3.99
3.92
3.89
3.85
3.79
10.9
10.4
10.0
9.7
9.9
31.6
29.8
28.1
27.2
26.6
80.0
76.0
74.2
73.6
74.6
194.7
187.7
186.6
188.1
189.6
20022 March
June
Sept
Dec
10.8
9.5
9.1
10.1
6.7
5.7
5.3
6.0
0.35
0.23
0.22
0.22
0.14
0.13
0.10
0.10
0.19
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.52
0.50
0.49
0.46
0.78
0.79
0.81
0.75
0.94
0.96
1.00
0.88
1.60
1.52
1.61
1.57
4.04
3.78
3.73
3.87
10.1
9.4
9.3
10.0
29.5
26.7
25.1
27.6
81.1
70.4
66.9
76.1
217.0
178.3
163.9
193.8
20033 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
Decp
10.6
9.6
9.1
10.4
6.0
5.6
5.4
5.9
0.25
0.22
0.22
0.30
0.11
0.11
0.13
0.13
0.18
0.13
0.12
0.16
0.51
0.45
0.47
0.59
0.82
0.79
0.82
0.97
0.96
0.90
0.93
0.99
1.67
1.65
1.58
1.64
3.90
3.73
3.62
3.90
10.3
9.6
9.4
10.4
28.1
25.9
25.0
27.6
79.8
72.4
67.9
78.4
213.5
179.9
166.1
199.5
20043 MarchP
10.6
5.7
0.29
0.11
0.15
0.54
0.81
0.91
1.68
3.89
10.1
27.7
81.3
209.1
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
11.8
11.3
11.4
11.2
11.1
12.2
9.4
8.0
6.4
5.3
0.46
0.46
0.40
0.33
0.25
0.24
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.10
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.15
0.13
0.35
0.32
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.40
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.31
0.56
0.52
0.47
0.44
0.46
1.46
1.26
1.12
1.05
1.04
4.30
3.80
3.24
2.87
2.63
10.1
9.5
9.2
8.2
7.1
26.0
24.1
23.4
21.8
20.6
74.6
66.2
62.5
58.7
55.8
196.6
178.2
169.4
161.6
159.1
1999
2000
20012
20022
20033p
11.0
10.5
10.4
10.5
10.6
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.5
4.9
0.24
0.20
0.22
0.20
0.23
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.10
0.10
0.13
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.23
0.31
0.30
0.30
0.27
0.30
0.43
0.44
0.42
0.44
0.44
1.01
1.00
0.96
0.94
0.97
2.62
2.63
2.57
2.54
2.51
6.7
6.4
6.3
6.0
6.1
19.3
18.1
17.4
17.0
16.8
53.4
50.9
50.2
50.5
51.9
162.8
155.4
155.3
159.8
162.1
20022 March
June
Sept
Dec
11.7
9.9
9.5
10.8
4.7
4.4
4.1
4.9
0.21
0.18
0.19
0.21
0.11
0.07
0.10
0.12
0.12
0.14
0.12
0.08
0.30
0.20
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.31
0.23
0.27
0.44
0.44
0.47
0.40
1.01
0.91
0.91
0.94
2.60
2.54
2.41
2.62
6.2
5.9
5.9
6.2
18.5
16.7
16.0
17.0
55.9
47.9
45.7
52.4
185.6
147.5
140.6
166.0
20033 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
Decp
11.5
10.1
9.7
11.2
5.3
4.6
4.5
5.2
0.25
0.23
0.18
0.27
0.08
0.11
0.12
0.09
0.08
0.15
0.12
0.14
0.22
0.25
0.19
0.26
0.36
0.28
0.31
0.27
0.46
0.44
0.44
0.44
1.01
0.92
0.98
0.98
2.59
2.53
2.38
2.54
6.3
6.0
5.8
6.4
17.7
16.3
15.4
17.7
55.5
50.3
47.4
54.6
181.2
151.3
144.6
171.7
20043 MarchP
11.4
5.4
0.23
0.10
0.09
0.28
0.34
0.41
0.98
2.48
6.4
17.6
55.8
175.9
Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year up to 1992 and the numbers of deaths occurring in each year from 1993 to 2002. Provisional figures for 2003 and
2004 relate to registrations.
1 Rates per 1,000 live births.
2 All rates for 2001 and 2002 are based on the revised mid-2001 and the mid-2002 population estimates released on 26 September 2003. They do not take account of the provisional results
of the Manchester matching exercise or the minor revision to the mid-2002 estimate for England in respect of the armed forces published on 27 January 2004.
3 Based on the revised mid-2002 population estimates published on 27 January 2004.
P Provisional
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
63
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Table 6.2
Autumn 2004
Deaths: subnational
Government Office Regions of England1
Year and
quarter
North East
Rates
North
West2
Yorkshire and
the Humber
East Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
South
West
Total deaths (deaths per 1,000 population of all ages)2
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
11.8
11.6
12.0
11.7
10.9
11.7
11.6
11.7
11.5
10.7
11.2
11.1
11.2
10.9
10.3
10.7
10.5
10.8
10.7
10.0
10.7
10.6
10.6
10.8
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.2
10.3
9.9
9.5
9.2
8.9
8.9
8.4
10.7
10.6
10.4
10.5
9.8
11.7
11.7
11.4
11.6
11.3
2001
2002
2003p
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.0
11.0
11.1
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.2
10.2
10.4
10.2
10.2
10.5
9.9
10.0
10.0
8.0
7.8
7.9
9.9
9.9
10.0
11.0
11.1
11.3
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
12.7
10.8
10.0
11.6
12.4
10.6
9.8
11.3
11.7
10.0
9.7
10.8
11.2
9.7
9.2
10.6
11.2
9.8
9.4
10.6
11.1
9.6
9.1
10.1
8.6
7.4
7.2
8.0
11.1
9.4
9.1
10.2
12.2
10.6
10.2
11.3
20033 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
Decp
12.3
10.8
10.4
12.2
11.8
10.7
10.0
11.8
11.3
10.0
9.5
11.4
11.3
10.0
9.5
10.9
11.3
10.1
9.4
11.0
10.8
9.5
9.2
10.5
8.6
7.5
7.4
8.0
10.7
9.7
9.2
10.3
12.0
10.9
10.3
11.9
20043 MarchP
12.2
11.9
11.5
11.1
11.0
10.8
8.3
10.7
12.0
Infant mortality (deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
6.2
5.8
5.0
5.6
6.5
6.3
6.7
6.3
6.5
6.2
6.5
6.5
6.9
6.3
7.3
6.3
5.7
5.6
6.0
5.4
6.8
7.0
6.5
6.9
6.8
5.3
4.8
5.0
4.6
4.4
6.3
5.8
6.0
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.0
4.4
4.8
4.4
5.5
5.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
2001
2002
2003p
5.4
4.8
4.7
5.8
5.4
5.9
5.5
6.1
5.8
4.9
5.6
5.9
6.4
6.6
7.3
4.5
4.3
4.5
6.1
5.5
5.4
4.2
4.5
4.3
5.4
4.3
4.0
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
3.9
5.4
5.2
4.5
6.7
5.2
4.3
5.5
7.0
5.2
5.5
6.9
7.0
5.7
4.8
5.0
6.7
5.8
6.7
7.2
4.4
4.5
4.1
4.2
5.7
5.4
4.9
6.1
4.9
4.6
3.8
4.6
4.6
4.1
3.7
4.7
2003 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
Decp
5.4
4.5
4.3
4.6
5.7
6.0
5.5
6.5
6.4
5.4
4.7
6.8
5.8
6.0
5.0
7.0
8.0
7.0
7.1
6.9
4.6
4.4
3.9
5.1
6.2
5.2
5.1
5.4
4.4
4.1
4.1
4.6
5.1
3.1
3.8
4.0
2004 MarchP
6.6
5.6
5.7
5.4
7.4
4.7
5.4
4.4
5.1
Neonatal mortality (deaths under 4 weeks per 1,000 live births)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
4.1
3.7
3.1
4.1
4.4
4.0
4.3
4.1
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.1
5.0
4.2
3.7
3.7
4.3
4.1
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.8
5.0
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.0
3.0
4.4
3.7
4.1
4.1
3.7
3.5
3.4
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.8
3.9
3.3
3.2
3.0
2001
2002
2003p
3.5
3.2
3.0
3.8
3.6
4.1
3.2
4.0
4.0
3.4
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.8
5.1
2.9
2.9
3.0
4.1
3.6
3.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
3.7
3.1
2.8
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
2.8
4.1
2.6
3.4
4.3
3.8
2.7
3.8
4.6
3.1
3.7
4.6
5.1
4.1
3.5
3.2
5.0
4.4
4.9
5.0
3.2
3.3
2.4
2.6
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.7
3.2
2.9
2.5
3.1
3.2
3.2
2.5
3.6
2003 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
Decp
3.2
3.1
2.0
3.9
4.1
4.3
3.7
4.5
4.3
3.5
3.3
4.8
4.3
4.0
3.8
4.8
5.7
4.7
5.4
4.7
3.2
2.9
2.6
3.2
4.2
4.0
3.6
3.4
2.8
2.6
2.5
3.2
3.1
2.5
2.5
3.2
2004 MarchP
4.1
3.5
3.7
3.8
5.6
3.2
3.9
2.8
3.5
Perinatal mortality (stillbirths and deaths under 1 week per 1,000 total births)4
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
9.2
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.5
8.6
8.9
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.3
8.3
9.2
8.3
9.6
8.7
7.7
8.0
7.8
7.8
10.2
9.6
9.3
9.9
9.6
7.5
7.3
7.4
7.0
7.1
9.6
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
7.8
7.3
6.8
6.9
6.6
7.5
8.7
7.3
7.8
6.6
2001
2002
2003p
7.8
8.1
7.7
8.7
8.5
9.1
7.5
9.0
9.0
7.9
8.5
9.4
9.1
10.0
10.1
7.1
7.5
7.3
8.9
9.3
9.5
6.9
6.9
6.9
7.2
6.8
7.0
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
7.1
8.1
7.8
9.6
8.8
8.6
8.3
8.4
10.6
9.4
7.6
8.5
9.5
8.8
7.7
8.0
11.1
9.7
9.5
9.8
7.3
7.4
7.4
7.9
9.3
10.0
8.7
9.1
7.7
6.9
6.3
6.6
6.8
7.2
6.5
6.9
2003 MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
Decp
9.3
7.9
6.8
7.0
8.4
8.9
9.3
9.6
10.9
7.5
7.8
9.8
10.1
10.2
8.1
9.4
9.8
11.8
10.6
8.3
7.6
6.8
7.3
7.7
10.1
9.8
9.3
8.8
6.8
6.5
7.1
7.3
6.9
7.7
6.5
6.9
2004 MarchP
9.9
7.9
8.4
8.6
10.2
7.8
8.6
7.0
6.3
Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths occurring in each year with the exception of provisional figures which relate to registrations.
1 The regions presented in this table have changed from the Regional Offices of the Department of Health to the Government Office Regions. See ‘In brief’ Health Statistics Quarterly no.15
for details.
2 For all regions except the North West, the crude death rates for 2001 and 2002 are based on the revised mid-2001 and the mid-2002 population estimates released on 26 September 2003.
Rates for the North West take account of the provisional results of the Census matching exercise for Manchester, published on 4 November 2003. No rates have been recalculated in the
light of the minor revisions to the mid-2002 estimates in respect of the armed forces published on 27 January 2004.
3 Crude death rates for 2003 and 2004 are based on the revised mid-2002 population estimates published on 27 January 2004.
4 In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth was changed, from a baby born dead after 28 completed weeks of gestation or more, to one born dead after 24 completed weeks of
gestation or more.
p Provisional.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
National Statistics
64
Population Trends 117
Table 7.1
Autumn 2004
International migration: age and sex
United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
All ages
Year and quarter
Persons
Males
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
200
191
153
250
328
103
100
83
120
157
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
314
312
318
326
390
1999
2000
2001
2002
0–14
Persons
Males
Females
97
91
71
130
171
33
32
30
45
53
17
16
16
22
23
17
17
14
23
30
162
170
157
169
207
153
142
161
157
184
38
33
33
43
37
23
22
14
22
18
454
483
480
513
250
275
260
284
204
209
219
229
42
36
46
38
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
100
113
178
89
56
67
90
49
44
46
88
40
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
105
117
197
95
59
68
103
54
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
240
210
233
213
285
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Persons
25–44
Males
Females
Persons
65
64
48
79
106
28
32
24
34
47
37
32
24
45
59
81
77
60
101
139
15
11
19
21
19
101
111
114
126
134
42
52
49
57
65
59
59
65
68
69
24
18
25
20
18
18
21
17
158
161
158
185
79
82
77
100
10
11
16
8
5
7
9
4
5
4
8
4
29
31
71
25
46
49
93
41
7
10
14
6
4
6
7
4
3
4
7
3
124
118
133
107
146
116
93
100
106
139
51
40
49
37
44
26
20
25
17
19
238
236
264
279
251
120
127
134
153
131
118
109
130
126
121
30
33
38
29
24
1999
2000
2001
2002
291
321
308
359
158
178
173
195
133
142
135
165
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
60
65
103
81
32
34
61
44
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
75
81
124
80
Males
45 and over
Females
Persons
Males
Females
48
43
34
49
73
33
34
26
51
66
21
18
15
25
31
10
9
9
16
14
11
9
7
10
17
148
141
142
131
194
80
80
77
76
109
68
61
65
55
84
28
27
29
27
26
17
16
17
15
15
11
11
12
12
11
80
79
81
85
224
244
239
256
130
149
135
148
94
95
103
108
30
43
37
35
18
26
22
16
13
17
14
19
17
17
30
13
12
15
41
12
55
59
82
45
29
35
47
26
26
25
34
19
6
12
9
11
4
9
4
6
2
3
5
6
37
39
75
34
20
19
39
21
17
19
36
13
53
58
96
48
31
37
53
27
22
21
43
21
8
9
11
7
4
5
4
3
3
4
7
4
24
21
24
20
25
64
52
51
47
76
28
26
29
19
39
36
25
22
28
37
99
97
108
98
131
57
59
64
55
69
42
38
44
43
62
27
21
25
32
33
12
12
14
17
18
15
9
11
15
15
17
16
16
15
15
13
17
22
13
10
62
69
63
86
70
27
31
24
45
31
35
38
39
41
39
117
107
140
138
130
63
64
79
77
71
54
42
60
61
59
29
28
23
27
27
13
16
15
16
14
16
12
9
11
13
27
26
25
25
19
11
14
15
8
15
11
10
87
84
84
92
42
45
41
44
45
39
43
48
143
175
155
186
79
102
89
107
64
73
65
80
34
36
45
56
18
20
29
28
16
16
16
28
28
30
42
36
5
7
7
7
3
3
5
4
2
4
2
3
14
15
28
26
6
8
13
12
8
8
14
14
34
34
52
36
18
19
32
20
15
15
20
16
8
9
16
12
5
5
10
9
3
4
6
3
45
45
64
41
30
36
59
39
8
5
9
4
7
3
5
1
2
2
4
2
19
22
33
18
8
9
17
10
11
13
16
8
34
43
64
45
21
26
35
24
13
17
29
21
13
10
18
15
9
6
7
6
4
4
11
9
– 40
– 19
– 79
+ 37
+ 43
– 22
– 18
– 50
+ 13
+ 12
– 19
–1
– 29
+ 24
+ 32
– 17
–8
– 19
+8
+8
– 10
–4
–9
+5
+3
–8
–4
– 10
+3
+5
+1
+ 12
–2
+ 32
+ 30
–
+6
–5
+ 15
+9
+1
+7
+2
+ 18
+ 22
– 18
– 20
– 48
+3
+7
– 10
– 16
– 31
–5
+4
–9
–4
– 18
+8
+4
–6
–3
– 10
–7
–2
–2
–3
–5
–1
–4
–4
–
–4
–6
+2
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
+ 77
+ 75
+ 54
+ 47
+ 139
+ 42
+ 43
+ 23
+ 16
+ 76
+ 35
+ 33
+ 31
+ 31
+ 63
+8
–
–5
+ 14
+ 13
+5
+6
–2
+6
+3
+3
–6
–3
+8
+ 10
+ 38
+ 42
+ 51
+ 40
+ 64
+ 15
+ 21
+ 25
+ 12
+ 34
+ 24
+ 21
+ 26
+ 28
+ 30
+ 31
+ 34
+2
–7
+ 64
+ 17
+ 15
–2
–1
+ 38
+ 14
+ 19
+5
–6
+ 25
–
–1
+5
–
–1
+5
–
+2
–1
–
–5
–1
+3
+1
–2
1999
2000
2001
2002
+ 163
+ 163
+ 172
+ 153
+ 92
+ 96
+ 88
+ 89
+ 71
+ 66
+ 84
+ 64
+ 15
+ 10
+ 21
+ 13
+5
+7
+ 11
+5
+ 10
+3
+ 10
+8
+ 71
+ 77
+ 74
+ 93
+ 37
+ 37
+ 36
+ 56
+ 34
+ 40
+ 38
+ 37
+ 81
+ 69
+ 84
+ 69
+ 51
+ 47
+ 46
+ 41
+ 30
+ 23
+ 38
+ 28
–4
+7
–8
- 22
–1
+6
–6
- 13
–3
+1
–2
-9
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
+ 40
+ 48
+ 75
+8
+ 24
+ 32
+ 29
+4
+ 16
+ 16
+ 46
+4
+5
+4
+9
+2
+3
+4
+3
+1
+3
–
+6
+1
+ 15
+ 16
+ 44
–1
+ 11
+9
+ 17
+1
+4
+7
+ 27
–2
+ 21
+ 26
+ 30
+9
+ 11
+ 16
+ 15
+6
+ 11
+ 10
+ 14
+3
–2
+3
–7
–1
–
+4
–6
–3
–1
–1
–1
+2
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
+ 30
+ 36
+ 73
+ 14
+ 14
+ 23
+ 39
+ 13
+ 16
+ 13
+ 34
+1
–1
+5
+6
+3
–3
+3
+2
+2
+2
+2
+4
–
+ 18
+ 16
+ 43
+ 16
+ 12
+ 10
+ 23
+ 11
+6
+6
+ 20
+5
+ 19
+ 15
+ 32
+3
+ 10
+ 11
+ 17
+3
+9
+4
+ 15
–
–5
–1
–7
–8
–4
–1
–3
–4
–1
+1
–4
–4
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Females
15–24
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and other sources – see Notes to Tables. Prior to 1991 they exclude certain categories of migration such as
migrants between the UK and the Irish Republic, persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in
this table include all categories of migrants and therefore represent total international migration. For adjustments required to pre-1991 figures, see Notes to Tables.
The table shows final revised Total International Migration estimates for 1991–2001. See ‘Report: Revised International Migration Estimates 1991 to 2001’ in Population Trends 113.
65
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Table 7.2
Autumn 2004
International migration: country of last or next residence
United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Commonwealth countries
Other foreign countries
All
countries
European
Union1
Australia,
New
Zealand,
Canada
South
Africa
India,
Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka2
Pakistan2
Caribbean
Other
USA
Middle
East3
Other3
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
200
191
153
250
328
21
33
25
72
95
52
40
20
30
44
8
9
3
18
8
24
15
18
16
17
:
12
9
10
16
5
4
3
5
4
36
32
19
25
42
22
16
17
26
24
–
7
11
15
11
31
23
27
34
69
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
314
312
318
326
390
95
89
98
100
109
32
36
37
40
64
9
5
11
13
20
17
17
15
21
17
11
10
11
9
10
3
3
4
4
6
40
40
33
32
31
29
27
32
23
37
12
13
13
15
13
67
72
63
67
84
1999
2000
2001
2002
454
483
480
513
99
96
86
89
63
63
77
61
29
23
22
27
25
34
32
36
12
16
18
10
6
6
3
5
37
48
47
52
29
24
24
28
15
30
30
32
138
144
140
172
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
100
113
178
89
16
20
33
18
18
20
25
12
3
5
7
5
8
9
11
5
3
6
6
3
1
2
1
1
9
10
20
9
6
4
8
5
6
6
12
6
29
32
55
23
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
105
117
197
95
17
18
31
24
14
19
17
11
7
8
5
7
7
11
12
5
3
2
2
3
1
1
3
–
11
8
26
7
7
5
12
4
6
6
14
6
33
38
74
27
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
240
210
232
213
285
31
39
33
62
95
99
63
78
50
61
21
21
23
2
7
8
4
2
4
6
:
2
1
2
4
8
3
3
2
2
23
17
20
13
21
17
21
25
34
35
:
6
23
16
14
34
33
23
28
40
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
238
236
264
279
251
76
76
94
92
85
47
52
58
57
54
4
6
5
8
6
4
4
5
6
5
4
2
1
3
2
4
3
1
3
2
19
15
23
23
14
27
30
26
28
27
13
10
8
13
9
41
40
42
46
48
1999
2000
2001
2002
291
321
308
359
103
103
94
125
73
79
80
84
7
7
8
10
4
5
8
7
1
3
3
4
3
3
2
2
14
15
13
16
33
33
28
37
10
15
9
12
44
58
63
62
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
60
65
103
81
16
23
36
20
20
16
19
24
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
3
–
1
1
1
–
–
2
–
2
4
3
4
4
5
10
8
1
1
4
2
12
10
23
16
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
75
81
124
80
30
26
44
24
16
20
22
26
3
2
3
3
1
2
3
1
1
–
2
1
–
–
1
–
3
3
6
4
7
10
14
7
1
3
6
2
13
14
23
13
– 40
– 19
– 79
+ 37
+ 43
– 10
–6
–8
+9
–
– 46
– 23
– 58
– 21
– 18
– 13
– 12
– 20
+ 16
+1
+ 16
+ 12
+ 15
+ 12
+ 11
:
+ 10
+8
+8
+ 12
–3
–
+1
+3
+2
+ 14
+ 15
–2
+ 12
+ 20
+6
–4
–8
–8
– 11
:
+1
– 12
–
–4
–3
– 10
+5
+6
+ 29
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
+ 77
+ 75
+ 54
+ 47
+ 139
+ 19
+ 13
+5
+9
+ 24
– 14
– 16
– 21
– 17
+ 10
+5
–1
+6
+5
+ 14
+ 13
+ 13
+ 10
+ 15
+ 12
+7
+8
+ 10
+6
+8
–1
–
+3
+1
+4
+ 21
+ 25
+ 10
+9
+ 17
+2
–3
+6
–5
+ 10
–1
+3
+5
+2
+4
+ 25
+ 32
+ 21
+ 21
+ 36
1999
2000
2001
2002
+ 163
+ 163
+ 172
+ 153
–4
–8
–7
– 36
– 10
– 15
–2
– 23
+ 22
+ 15
+ 13
+ 17
+ 22
+ 29
+ 24
+ 29
+ 11
+ 13
+ 14
+7
+3
+4
+1
+3
+ 23
+ 33
+ 34
+ 36
–4
–9
–4
– 10
+5
+ 15
+ 20
+ 20
+ 94
+ 86
+ 77
+ 110
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
+ 40
+ 48
+ 75
+8
–1
–2
–3
–2
–2
+3
+6
– 12
+2
+4
+4
+3
+6
+7
+9
+3
+3
+5
+5
+3
+1
+1
–
+1
+7
+6
+ 17
+5
+2
–1
–2
–2
+5
+5
+8
+4
+ 17
+ 22
+ 32
+7
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
+ 30
+ 36
+ 73
+ 14
– 14
–9
– 13
–1
–2
–
–5
– 15
+4
+7
+3
+4
+6
+ 10
+9
+4
+2
+2
–
+3
+1
–
+2
–
+8
+5
+ 19
+3
+1
–6
–1
–3
+4
+4
+8
+4
+ 20
+ 24
+ 51
+ 15
Year and quarter
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and other sources – see Notes to Tables. Prior to 1991 they exclude certain categories of migration such as
migrants between the UK and the Irish Republic, persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in
this table include all categories of migrants and therefore represent total international migration. For adjustments required to pre-1991 figures, see Notes to Tables.
1 For 1971 the European Union figures are for the original six countries only. From 1976 onwards the European Union is as currently constituted.
2 For 1971 Pakistan is included with India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
3 For 1971 Middle East is included in the Other Category of Other Foreign Countries.
The table shows final revised Total International Migration estimates for 1991–2001. See ‘Report: Revised International Migration Estimates 1991 to 2001’ in Population Trends 113.
National Statistics
66
Population Trends 117
Table 7.3
Autumn 2004
International migration: citizenship
United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Citizenship (numbers)
Year and quarter
All countries
British
Non-British
European
Union1
Commonwealth
Other
foreign
All
Old
New
British citizens as
percentage of all
citizens
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
200
191
153
250
328
92
87
60
120
109
108
104
93
130
219
..
19
12
36
53
53
57
43
50
85
17
17
12
19
26
36
40
31
31
59
54
28
38
44
82
46
45
39
48
33
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
314
312
318
326
390
108
84
94
89
103
206
228
224
237
287
50
61
72
72
82
80
85
78
90
105
21
27
29
31
54
59
58
49
59
51
76
82
73
76
100
34
27
29
27
26
1999
2000
2001
2002
454
483
480
513
116
104
106
95
337
379
373
418
67
63
60
63
121
148
151
159
54
57
67
66
66
91
84
93
150
168
162
197
26
22
22
18
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
100
113
178
89
25
26
31
24
75
87
147
64
9
11
27
13
32
41
54
26
13
18
22
12
19
22
32
14
34
36
66
26
25
23
17
28
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
105
117
197
95
16
25
30
23
89
91
167
72
12
12
24
15
35
39
56
29
16
18
18
13
19
21
38
15
42
41
86
28
16
22
15
24
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
240
210
232
213
285
171
137
164
132
154
69
73
68
81
131
..
18
16
13
53
29
30
29
29
35
13
16
14
19
18
16
13
15
10
17
40
25
24
40
43
71
65
71
62
54
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
238
236
264
279
251
125
136
156
149
126
113
101
108
131
126
42
38
44
53
49
31
29
32
40
33
14
18
17
20
20
17
12
14
20
13
40
34
32
38
44
53
57
59
53
50
1999
2000
2001
2002
291
321
308
359
139
161
159
186
152
160
149
174
59
57
49
52
41
47
51
58
29
32
32
42
12
15
19
16
52
55
49
64
48
50
52
52
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
60
65
103
81
34
30
55
41
26
34
48
40
7
13
18
11
10
12
13
16
8
9
5
11
2
3
8
5
9
9
17
13
57
47
53
50
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
75
81
124
80
45
38
59
43
29
42
65
37
7
15
21
9
11
11
21
16
8
7
13
14
3
3
8
2
12
17
23
12
61
48
47
54
– 40
– 19
– 79
+ 37
+ 43
– 79
– 50
– 104
– 11
– 45
+ 39
+ 31
+ 24
+ 49
+ 89
..
+1
–4
+ 22
+0
+ 24
+ 27
+ 14
+ 21
+ 50
+4
+1
–2
+0
+7
+ 20
+ 27
+ 16
+ 21
+ 42
+ 14
+3
+ 15
+5
+ 39
:
:
:
:
:
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
+ 77
+ 75
+ 54
+ 47
+ 139
– 17
– 52
– 62
– 60
– 23
+ 94
+ 127
+ 116
+ 107
+ 162
+9
+ 23
+ 28
+ 18
+ 33
+ 49
+ 56
+ 47
+ 50
+ 72
+7
+9
+ 12
+ 11
+ 34
+ 42
+ 46
+ 35
+ 39
+ 38
+ 36
+ 48
+ 41
+ 38
+ 57
:
:
:
:
:
1999
2000
2001
2002
+ 163
+ 163
+ 172
+ 153
– 23
– 57
– 53
– 91
+ 186
+ 220
+ 225
+ 245
+8
+6
+ 11
+ 11
+ 80
+ 101
+ 101
+ 101
+ 26
+ 25
+ 35
+ 23
+ 54
+ 76
+ 65
+ 77
+ 98
+ 113
+ 113
+ 133
:
:
:
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
+ 40
+ 48
+ 75
+8
–9
–4
– 24
– 16
+ 49
+ 53
+ 99
+ 24
+2
–3
+9
+2
+ 22
+ 29
+ 41
+ 10
+5
+ 10
+ 17
+1
+ 16
+ 19
+ 24
+9
+ 25
+ 27
+ 49
+ 13
:
:
:
:
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
+ 30
+ 36
+ 73
+ 14
– 29
– 13
– 29
– 20
+ 59
+ 49
+ 102
+ 35
+4
–3
+3
+6
+ 24
+ 28
+ 36
+ 13
+8
+ 11
+5
–1
+ 16
+ 17
+ 31
+ 13
+ 31
+ 24
+ 63
+ 16
:
:
:
:
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and other sources – see Notes to Tables. Prior to 1991 they exclude certain categories of migration such as
migrants between the UK and the Irish Republic, persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in
this table include all categories of migrants and therefore represent total international migration. For adjustments required to pre-1991 figures, see Notes to Tables.
1 For 1971 citizens of the European Union are included in Other Foreign Category. From 1976 onwards the European Union is as currently constituted.
The table shows final revised Total International Migration estimates for 1991–2001. See ‘Report: Revised International Migration Estimates 1991 to 2001’ in Population Trends 113.
67
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Table 8.1
Autumn 2004
Internal migration
Recorded movements between constituent countries of the United Kingdom and Government Office Regions of England
Numbers (thousands)
Government Office Regions of England
Year and quarter
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern North East
Ireland
North
West
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
Inflow
1976
1981
1986
1991
105.4
93.7
115.6
95.8
52.0
44.6
55.2
51.5
50.4
45.4
43.9
55.8
9.7
6.8
8.8
12.5
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
103.4
108.1
111.1
110.9
111.2
52.0
54.7
55.3
58.5
56.3
51.7
48.5
47.0
55.3
52.6
1999
2000
2001
2002
111.7
108.6
104.2
100.9
58.0
59.5
60.0
64.0
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
21.0
22.7
34.2
22.9
2003 March
June
Sept
South
West
39.2
31.1
36.5
40.2
93.0
79.3
90.0
96.1
78.2
68.3
78.6
85.0
84.0
76.6
101.9
89.6
75.7
66.9
87.1
82.7
146.3
121.4
144.6
122.1
..
155.0
182.8
148.8
215.4
201.8
243.3
197.6
123.8
108.3
148.8
120.7
10.9
14.1
11.4
10.2
11.7
37.1
37.9
38.6
38.6
39.0
99.7
103.7
105.0
106.5
104.0
87.6
90.8
90.8
92.6
93.0
96.4
101.3
102.1
107.7
107.9
84.8
90.0
90.6
92.7
93.4
130.6
134.6
139.5
145.0
142.8
160.4
170.7
168.0
167.3
173.9
215.5
218.6
228.0
229.6
226.1
127.7
131.6
138.5
144.0
138.7
50.9
48.8
56.5
52.7
11.6
11.2
12.7
10.8
38.7
39.2
40.4
42.7
105.4
106.2
106.3
108.9
95.2
96.5
96.5
99.7
111.3
112.1
115.5
119.5
93.7
94.3
95.3
98.6
148.4
145.8
147.2
150.0
162.9
163.0
159.7
154.8
228.6
224.2
223.8
228.6
143.2
140.1
143.3
145.9
12.8
13.2
23.4
14.7
9.0
15.0
16.7
12.1
3.2
2.7
2.5
2.3
7.9
8.6
16.8
9.4
21.8
23.5
37.0
26.6
18.7
20.4
38.8
21.8
23.0
25.2
44.4
26.9
19.8
21.5
33.1
24.2
31.4
34.8
48.5
35.3
35.0
34.0
50.0
35.7
45.4
50.6
78.4
54.2
29.0
32.5
51.4
32.9
20.1
21.5
33.3
12.5
13.2
22.5
13.6
11.9
20.8
3.3
2.9
3.3
8.0
8.3
15.6
22.0
23.9
37.4
19.1
19.9
39.3
22.8
23.1
43.0
19.6
20.6
31.4
30.9
32.1
46.3
32.9
33.9
46.3
45.3
47.7
75.0
27.5
30.7
49.6
Outflow
1976
1981
1986
1991
104.8
91.5
100.7
112.2
43.9
41.8
49.8
47.4
54.5
47.7
57.9
46.7
14.2
9.4
15.1
9.3
40.2
39.1
45.6
40.9
102.9
98.6
115.8
104.9
78.5
73.3
90.5
85.4
77.2
71.7
84.8
81.4
89.5
78.4
94.8
87.9
115.6
104.4
128.1
113.0
..
187.0
232.4
202.1
181.7
166.0
204.1
184.6
94.7
88.0
102.5
98.9
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
106.3
107.9
105.3
114.8
111.3
50.4
53.1
53.3
54.4
54.2
49.0
52.0
54.5
53.2
53.8
12.2
12.3
11.8
12.6
12.4
43.5
45.6
44.5
44.5
43.7
109.8
115.8
114.0
117.5
115.8
91.9
97.6
98.2
100.0
97.9
86.2
91.9
94.3
97.4
97.3
95.1
98.1
101.0
103.7
100.9
115.5
118.7
121.1
124.8
125.0
206.3
207.6
213.4
221.7
217.9
190.4
195.8
198.9
205.7
209.4
103.9
108.0
109.8
112.4
110.9
1999
2000
2001
2002
111.6
110.8
120.4
119.3
53.3
52.1
51.5
49.7
54.9
53.3
50.4
48.4
12.5
11.9
11.1
11.1
43.8
42.9
42.6
41.3
114.9
111.3
110.4
107.5
97.0
95.7
95.6
94.6
96.4
94.9
95.6
96.9
101.8
101.5
101.6
102.7
125.8
124.6
127.1
130.1
228.3
231.5
244.2
262.5
208.7
210.5
216.4
220.2
110.7
110.7
110.7
111.0
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
23.0
28.9
40.4
26.9
10.1
11.3
17.0
11.3
10.6
11.1
15.6
11.0
2.3
2.3
3.8
2.7
8.3
9.7
14.2
9.1
21.6
24.1
37.9
24.0
18.8
21.5
32.8
21.6
19.1
22.3
33.1
22.4
20.0
22.5
36.7
23.5
25.6
27.6
46.6
30.3
55.0
57.9
85.5
64.1
44.0
47.8
77.8
50.5
21.7
24.0
39.9
25.4
2003 March
June
Sept
27.5
26.2
43.6
9.6
10.7
16.5
10.1
10.5
15.0
2.2
2.1
4.6
8.5
8.8
13.6
21.2
22.8
36.6
18.5
20.9
32.3
19.2
21.5
33.0
20.3
21.7
36.3
26.2
25.9
45.4
57.1
56.2
84.6
42.8
44.8
73.8
21.9
22.5
38.4
Balance
1976
1981
1986
1991
+ 0.6
+ 2.1
+14.9
– 16.4
+
+
+
+
8.1
2.7
5.4
4.0
– 4.1
– 2.3
–14.1
+ 9.2
–
–
–
+
4.5
2.5
6.3
3.2
–
–
–
–
1.0
8.0
9.1
0.7
– 9.8
–19.3
–25.8
– 8.8
– 0.3
– 5.0
– 11.9
– 0.4
+ 6.8
+ 4.9
+17.1
+ 8.1
– 13.8
– 11.6
– 7.8
– 5.2
+ 30.7
+ 17.0
+ 16.5
+ 9.1
..
– 32.0
– 49.6
– 53.3
+ 33.7
+ 35.8
+ 39.2
+ 13.0
+29.1
+20.3
+46.4
+21.8
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
–
+
+
–
–
+
+
+
+
+
1.5
1.6
2.0
4.1
2.1
+
–
–
+
–
2.6
3.5
7.5
2.2
1.2
–
+
–
–
–
1.2
1.8
0.4
2.4
0.8
–
–
–
–
–
6.4
7.7
5.9
5.9
4.8
–10.1
–12.1
– 9.0
–11.0
–11.8
–
–
–
–
–
4.4
6.8
7.4
7.3
4.9
+10.2
+ 9.4
+ 7.8
+10.3
+10.6
– 10.3
– 8.1
– 10.4
– 11.1
– 7.4
+ 15.1
+ 15.9
+ 18.3
+ 20.3
+ 17.7
–
–
–
–
–
45.9
36.9
45.4
54.4
44.0
+ 25.1
+ 22.7
+ 29.1
+ 23.8
+ 16.7
+23.8
+23.6
+28.7
+31.6
+27.8
1999
2000
2001
2002
+ 0.1
– 2.2
– 16.3
–18.4
+ 4.7
+ 7.4
+ 8.5
+14.3
–
–
+
+
4.0
4.5
6.1
4.3
–
–
+
–
0.8
0.7
1.6
0.3
–
–
–
+
5.1
3.7
2.3
1.4
– 9.5
– 5.1
– 4.1
+ 1.4
–
+
+
+
1.8
0.8
0.9
5.0
+14.9
+17.2
+19.9
+22.6
–
–
–
–
8.1
7.2
6.3
4.1
+ 22.6
+ 21.2
+ 20.1
+ 19.9
– 65.4
– 68.6
– 84.5
–107.8
+ 19.8
+ 13.8
+ 7.4
+ 8.4
+32.6
+29.3
+32.6
+34.8
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
–
–
–
–
+
+
+
+
–
+
+
+
1.7
3.9
1.0
1.1
+
+
–
–
1.0
0.4
1.3
0.4
–
–
+
+
0.4
1.2
2.6
0.3
+ 0.2
– 0.5
– 1.0
+ 2.6
–
–
+
+
0.1
1.1
6.0
0.2
+ 3.9
+ 2.9
+11.3
+ 4.5
–
–
–
+
0.1
1.0
3.7
0.7
+
+
+
+
–
–
–
–
+
+
+
+
1.3
2.8
0.6
3.7
+ 7.3
+ 8.6
+11.5
+ 7.4
2003 March
June
Sept
– 7.4
– 4.7
– 10.3
– 0.5
– 0.5
+ 2.0
+ 0.8
+ 1.2
+ 0.8
+ 0.6
– 0.9
+ 7.0
+ 3.6
+ 1.6
+10.0
– 0.7
– 1.1
– 4.9
+ 2.5
+ 2.8
+ 1.2
+ 5.6
+ 8.3
+11.1
2.9
0.2
5.8
3.8
0.1
2.0
6.2
6.2
4.0
2.7
1.9
6.4
3.3
+ 2.9
+ 2.5
+ 5.9
+ 3.4
+ 1.5
+ 5.7
+ 1.0
+ 0.8
– 1.3
Notes: Figures are derived from re-registrations recorded at the National Health Service Central Register.
See Notes to tables for effects of computerisation of National Health Service Central Register at Southport on time series data.
Figures have been adjusted for minor changes caused by database realignment during HA reorganisation. See Notes to tables.
National Statistics
68
5.8
7.2
1.9
5.0
+ 4.8
+ 6.2
+ 0.8
20.0
23.9
35.5
28.4
– 24.1
– 22.3
– 38.3
Population Trends 117
Table 9.1
Autumn 2004
First marriages1: age and sex
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
All ages
Per cent aged Mean age3
under 20
(years)
Persons marrying per 1,000 single population at ages
Median age3
(years)
Number
Rate2
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
45 and over
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
308.8
339.1
343.6
274.4
259.1
74.9
78.9
82.3
62.8
51.7
16.6
22.1
26.1
18.5
11.1
159.1
168.6
167.7
123.7
94.1
182.8
185.4
167.3
132.5
120.8
91.9
91.1
84.6
78.7
70.3
39.8
36.4
33.8
32.0
31.1
9.3
8.6
8.0
7.1
5.4
6.9
9.9
10.1
9.8
7.2
25.6
24.9
24.6
25.1
25.4
24.0
23.4
23.4
23.7
24.1
1986
1991
253.0
222.8
45.0
37.8
6.0
3.4
64.4
43.3
105.1
81.0
73.9
66.5
30.9
29.9
4.8
4.8
3.8
2.1
26.3
27.5
25.1
26.5
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
206.1
198.2
193.3
188.3
186.3
34.4
32.6
31.3
29.9
29.2
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
31.9
28.6
25.6
23.2
21.5
72.8
67.9
64.1
60.7
58.8
60.0
58.5
57.8
56.6
56.4
31.1
31.2
31.6
31.3
30.5
5.1
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.5
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
28.5
28.9
29.3
29.6
29.8
27.5
27.9
28.3
28.6
28.9
1999
2000
2001
2002P
184.3
186.1
175.7
178.2
28.2
27.9
25.6
25.3
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.3
19.3
18.5
16.4
16.3
56.5
54.1
50.1
48.6
56.5
56.9
54.3
54.7
30.4
31.6
29.9
31.0
5.6
6.1
5.3
5.8
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
30.1
30.5
30.6
30.9
29.2
29.6
29.7
30.1
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
19.9
51.3
85.5
29.4
12.0
30.9
50.9
17.5
1.3
1.6
2.4
1.5
9.3
19.7
33.0
11.9
20.8
60.4
104.2
30.7
22.8
63.7
104.7
36.1
15.0
34.9
53.9
22.4
3.8
7.1
8.6
4.8
2.1
1.0
0.9
1.6
30.7
30.5
30.2
30.8
29.6
29.6
29.4
29.9
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
18.7
49.9
78.1
29.0
11.0
29.1
45.1
16.7
1.2
1.5
2.0
1.3
8.4
18.2
28.1
10.9
19.5
58.7
92.6
29.0
21.9
61.5
97.1
36.1
13.7
33.3
49.9
22.3
3.1
6.0
7.3
4.8
2.0
1.0
0.8
1.5
30.7
30.6
30.4
31.1
29.7
29.7
29.6
30.2
20.6
49.5
77.3
30.7
11.9
28.2
43.5
17.3
1.1
1.3
1.8
1.1
8.8
17.3
27.7
11.2
21.2
54.7
87.8
30.3
24.0
61.5
95.0
37.6
15.1
34.8
50.5
23.1
3.5
6.5
8.0
5.2
1.7
0.9
0.8
1.3
31.0
31.0
30.7
31.4
30.0
30.1
29.9
30.4
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
312.3
342.7
347.4
276.5
263.4
83.0
89.3
97.0
76.9
64.0
77.0
82.6
92.9
66.7
41.5
261.1
263.7
246.5
185.4
140.8
162.8
153.4
167.0
140.7
120.2
74.6
74.1
75.7
77.6
67.0
29.8
30.2
30.3
31.6
28.7
4.6
4.3
4.8
4.0
2.8
28.7
32.5
31.1
31.1
24.1
23.1
22.5
22.6
22.8
23.1
21.6
21.2
21.4
21.5
21.9
1986
1991
256.8
224.8
55.6
46.7
24.1
14.0
102.4
73.0
108.7
90.6
67.1
62.7
28.6
28.1
2.7
2.8
13.9
7.9
24.1
25.5
23.1
24.6
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
206.3
198.6
192.7
188.5
187.4
41.6
39.3
37.3
35.6
34.7
9.5
8.9
8.0
7.3
7.2
56.1
50.3
45.2
41.9
39.3
84.6
80.7
77.2
73.7
71.5
58.9
56.8
56.9
55.8
56.1
28.6
28.6
28.8
28.2
27.5
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.5
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.7
4.7
26.5
26.8
27.2
27.5
27.7
25.7
26.0
26.4
26.7
27.0
1999
2000
2001
2002P
185.3
187.7
177.5
179.7
33.5
33.2
30.7
30.2
6.7
6.5
5.5
5.3
36.2
34.7
32.0
30.8
69.5
67.1
64.5
62.8
56.3
57.6
53.4
54.1
27.2
28.1
25.6
26.7
3.6
4.1
3.7
4.3
4.4
4.2
3.9
3.7
28.0
28.2
28.4
28.7
27.3
27.5
27.7
28.0
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
19.9
51.5
86.9
29.5
14.1
36.6
61.1
20.8
4.6
6.6
9.3
5.5
15.4
37.4
65.8
19.9
24.7
75.2
129.8
38.3
23.9
64.3
103.2
38.7
13.6
30.9
46.7
21.0
2.5
4.6
5.4
3.7
7.0
3.9
3.3
5.7
28.2
28.3
28.1
28.6
27.3
27.6
27.4
28.0
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
18.6
50.6
79.3
29.0
13.0
35.1
54.4
19.9
4.0
5.9
7.6
4.7
14.2
36.4
58.1
19.0
23.8
75.4
120.7
37.2
21.6
60.6
92.9
37.8
12.3
28.5
40.7
20.6
2.4
4.2
4.8
3.6
6.5
3.6
3.0
5.1
28.4
28.4
28.2
28.9
27.5
27.7
27.6
28.2
20.6
49.9
78.4
30.9
14.0
33.6
52.3
20.6
4.0
5.3
7.3
4.6
14.8
33.6
55.1
19.3
26.0
71.0
114.5
39.1
24.1
60.8
91.8
39.2
13.7
30.1
41.1
21.5
2.8
4.7
5.7
4.0
6.0
3.3
3.0
4.7
28.7
28.8
28.5
29.2
27.9
28.0
27.7
28.4
Year and quarter
2002 March
p
June
SeptpP
Dec
2002 March
p
June
SeptpP
Dec
p
p
Notes: Marriage rates for 1986–2000 have been calculated using the interim revised marital status estimates (based on the original mid-2001 estimates) and are subject to further
revision. The marital status estimates for 2001 take account of the provisional results of the Manchester matching exercise. Rates for 2002 are based on mid-2002 estimates
released on 27 February 2004, which are consistent with the mid-2002 population estimates released on 27 January 2004.
1
2
3
p
Figures for all marriages can be found in Table 2.1.
Per 1,000 single persons aged 16 and over.
The mean/median ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age or marital status.
Provisional.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
69
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Autumn 2004
Remarriages1: age, sex, and previous marital status
Table 9.2
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
Remarriages of widowed
persons
Remarriages of divorced persons
Year and quarter
All ages
Persons remarrying per 1,000 divorced population at ages
3
3
Mean
age
(years)
Median
age
(years)
Number
Rate4
45 and over
Per cent
aged
under 35
198.3
244.4
251.3
187.9
141.9
88.6
89.4
124.8
94.0
63.9
33.9
40.8
42.8
46.7
46.1
40.5
39.3
39.8
38.4
38.1
39.2
37.4
37.0
36.0
35.9
19.1
18.7
18.7
16.9
13.8
28.8
28.3
27.5
24.7
19.7
141.3
100.6
106.0
72.7
49.9
38.4
38.5
34.3
39.1
40.3
37.7
39.0
11.6
9.0
16.7
12.5
103.9
101.6
103.0
102.2
99.6
94.1
92.9
90.8
89.4
83.7
64.2
63.0
62.7
60.6
58.3
34.9
33.4
33.1
31.3
29.4
31.5
30.3
28.2
27.0
24.8
41.1
41.3
41.7
42.0
42.4
39.6
39.8
40.2
40.5
40.8
8.4
7.8
7.7
7.4
6.9
11.5
10.8
10.6
10.3
9.6
153.2
147.9
75.4
66.3
100.3
97.9
96.9
92.6
83.1
84.5
95.7
96.2
56.3
58.9
68.2
70.3
28.2
28.9
28.6
30.2
23.3
20.8
19.7
17.8
42.7
43.2
43.5
44.1
41.2
41.8
42.0
42.6
6.6
6.5
5.8
5.9
9.3
9.1
8.0
8.1
Number
Rate
2
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.8
26.7
42.4
67.2
79.1
162.9
192.2
227.3
178.8
129.5
478.6
737.8
525.2
656.8
240.7
473.6
522.5
509.0
359.7
260.9
351.6
403.1
390.7
266.8
205.8
1986
1991
83.4
74.9
91.0
63.0
141.4
81.1
158.9
111.3
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
76.6
77.0
78.0
76.8
74.0
55.2
53.1
51.7
49.2
45.9
107.5
122.3
118.8
142.2
162.5
1999
2000
2001
2002P
72.6
75.4
67.7
70.3
43.7
42.2
45.9
46.8
2000
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.5
21.2
29.0
14.8
24.7
49.6
67.7
34.5
130.2
144.7
178.9
137.7
64.2
108.6
150.3
68.4
43.5
93.6
131.1
61.4
31.2
65.6
94.1
44.2
17.1
33.1
41.1
24.4
20.6
20.4
21.8
19.3
43.7
43.3
42.7
43.9
42.2
42.0
41.2
42.6
1.1
1.9
2.1
1.3
6.3
10.5
12.0
7.5
2001
March
June
Sept
Dec
9.2
19.2
25.3
13.9
25.4
52.3
68.0
37.4
57.3
85.5
89.9
68.7
63.1
104.2
143.6
75.9
49.7
108.2
152.7
71.2
35.2
77.4
105.4
54.0
17.0
33.1
39.2
24.9
19.7
19.4
20.9
18.3
44.0
43.5
42.9
44.1
42.7
42.2
41.4
42.8
0.9
1.7
1.9
1.3
5.1
9.3
10.5
6.9
2002
March
p
June
SeptP
DecP
10.3
19.7
25.7
14.6
27.8
52.5
67.9
38.4
49.0
60.8
93.8
61.2
64.0
98.8
130.1
76.8
55.4
106.0
148.8
73.7
39.8
78.9
106.7
55.4
18.7
34.4
41.1
26.3
18.0
17.3
18.6
16.9
44.4
44.2
43.5
44.7
42.9
42.7
42.0
43.3
0.9
1.7
2.0
1.3
5.1
9.2
10.9
7.2
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.0
25.1
39.6
65.1
75.1
97.1
114.7
134.0
122.2
90.7
542.2
567.8
464.4
458.9
257.5
409.6
411.2
359.0
272.3
202.1
250.2
254.8
232.7
188.0
142.9
111.5
135.9
139.8
124.0
95.5
35.6
37.8
49.3
40.9
29.0
46.8
52.4
57.0
59.8
57.9
37.2
36.2
35.7
34.9
35.1
35.9
34.3
33.0
32.4
33.4
16.5
16.8
17.7
17.0
13.5
6.5
6.3
6.3
5.9
4.6
1986
1991
80.0
73.4
68.7
50.3
190.9
111.9
155.9
118.1
111.6
89.7
75.6
55.3
24.4
20.9
51.2
47.4
36.0
37.1
34.7
35.7
11.2
8.6
3.8
2.9
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
76.9
76.9
78.9
77.1
73.3
45.7
43.9
43.5
41.1
38.0
130.9
130.6
145.5
154.2
150.3
107.6
103.2
102.8
100.8
96.6
87.0
86.2
86.2
82.2
77.3
52.4
52.3
53.1
51.5
48.9
20.4
19.5
20.0
19.1
17.9
44.4
42.8
40.8
39.0
37.1
37.9
38.1
38.6
38.9
39.3
36.3
36.6
37.1
37.4
37.9
7.9
7.5
7.3
7.0
6.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
1999
2000
2001
2002P
72.0
74.1
66.1
69.0
36.2
36.1
33.6
34.2
145.0
141.6
105.0
106.6
90.9
92.2
97.5
100.8
74.3
74.3
79.6
81.4
48.8
50.3
48.6
51.0
17.2
17.7
16.0
16.9
34.7
32.0
30.7
28.2
39.7
40.1
40.4
40.9
38.3
38.9
39.2
39.7
6.2
6.2
5.6
5.7
2.3
2.3
2.0
2.1
p
2000
March
June
Sept
Dec
10.7
20.9
27.7
14.8
20.9
41.0
53.8
28.6
121.1
145.9
171.7
127.3
58.0
103.5
133.0
73.9
42.4
84.4
113.3
56.8
27.8
56.4
77.7
39.0
10.4
20.7
25.0
14.7
33.3
31.7
31.9
31.6
40.1
40.3
39.9
40.3
38.7
39.1
38.7
39.0
1.0
1.8
2.1
1.3
1.5
2.6
3.1
1.9
2001
March
June
Sept
Dec
9.4
18.6
24.1
13.9
19.4
37.9
48.6
28.1
74.2
110.3
128.7
106.1
65.0
108.9
135.4
80.1
45.7
88.4
118.0
65.7
26.7
54.4
73.0
39.7
9.4
18.6
22.0
13.9
32.2
30.2
30.6
30.6
40.3
40.6
40.2
40.7
39.0
39.3
39.0
39.4
0.8
1.7
1.9
1.2
1.2
2.4
2.7
1.8
2002
MarchP
JuneP
SeptP
DecP
10.4
19.3
24.8
14.5
20.9
38.5
48.8
28.5
77.7
110.1
137.8
100.3
72.2
107.9
140.9
81.5
49.5
90.4
120.0
65.0
30.1
57.4
74.7
41.6
10.3
19.4
22.8
14.9
29.7
27.5
28.6
27.4
40.8
41.1
40.6
41.3
39.6
39.8
39.5
40.0
0.9
1.6
1.9
1.2
1.3
2.4
2.8
1.8
Notes: Marriage rates for 1986–2000 have been calculated using the interim revised marital status estimates (based on the original mid-2001 estimates) and are subject to further
revision. The marital status estimates for 2001 take account of the provisional results of the Manchester matching exercise. Rates for 2002 are based on mid-2002 estimates
released on 27 February 2004, which are consistent with the mid-2002 population estimates released on 27 January 2004.
1
2
3
4
p
Figures for all marriages can be found in Table 2.1.
Per 1,000 divorced persons aged 16 and over.
The mean/median ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population, by age or marital status.
Per 1,000 widowed persons aged 16 and over.
Provisional.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
National Statistics
70
Population Trends 117
Table 9.3
Autumn 2004
Divorces: age and sex
England and Wales
Year and
quarter
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
Petitions
filed
Decrees made absolute
All
divorces
1st
marriage
Divorce decrees per 1,000 married population
2nd or
later
marriage
16 and over
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
45 and over
Per cent
aged
under 35
Mean age
at divorce1
Median
age at1
divorce
Numbers
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
13.7
18.3
44.2
43.3
46.7
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
23.5
36.4
69.3
115.7
127.6
1.9
2.7
5.2
11.0
18.1
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
1.4
2.6
5.0
13.6
17.7
3.9
6.8
12.5
21.4
27.6
4.1
6.8
11.8
18.9
22.8
3.1
4.5
7.9
14.1
17.0
1.1
1.5
3.1
4.5
4.8
38.3
44.2
44.8
48.6
48.6
..
38.6
39.4
38.0
37.7
..
36.4
36.6
35.4
35.4
1986
1991
1996
49.7
..
..
153.9
158.7
157.1
128.0
129.8
125.8
25.9
29.0
31.3
13.0
13.6
14.1
31.4
26.1
33.9
31.4
32.4
35.4
25.2
28.6
31.8
18.0
20.2
22.6
5.2
5.6
6.4
45.6
42.7
37.5
37.8
38.6
39.8
36.2
37.0
38.1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002p
2003p
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
146.7
145.2
144.6
141.1
143.8
147.7
153.5
117.3
116.0
115.1
112.1
114.3
116.9
121.4
29.4
29.2
29.4
29.1
29.5
30.8
32.0
13.3
13.3
13.4
13.2
13.0
13.4
13.9
32.2
32.5
31.1
29.6
20.5
22.8
23.7
33.7
34.8
34.3
32.8
27.6
28.8
27.2
30.5
30.6
31.0
30.5
28.0
28.7
27.7
21.7
22.3
22.9
23.1
22.8
23.7
25.0
6.1
6.1
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.9
7.5
35.9
34.3
32.1
29.9
28.4
26.7
24.7
40.2
40.4
40.9
41.3
41.5
41.9
42.3
38.4
38.7
39.2
39.7
40.0
40.4
40.9
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
36.1
36.0
35.4
36.3
28.8
28.4
28.2
28.9
7.3
7.6
7.3
7.4
13.2
13.0
12.7
13.0
21.0
21.1
19.6
20.2
29.3
27.3
26.0
27.6
28.5
28.1
27.7
27.7
22.9
22.7
22.6
23.0
6.6
6.6
6.3
6.5
28.8
28.3
28.3
28.1
41.4
41.6
41.5
41.6
39.9
40.1
39.9
40.0
2002 Marchp
Junep
Septp
Decp
..
..
..
..
35.8
37.4
38.0
36.6
28.3
29.6
30.0
29.0
7.5
7.8
8.0
7.6
13.2
13.6
13.7
13.2
22.9
22.1
23.0
23.1
28.4
29.2
28.9
28.8
28.6
29.4
29.3
27.5
23.3
24.1
24.1
23.1
6.7
6.9
7.1
6.9
27.0
26.8
26.6
26.4
41.8
41.8
41.9
42.0
40.3
40.4
40.5
40.5
2003 MarchP
Junep
Septp
Decp
..
..
..
..
39.4
38.6
37.9
37.6
31.2
30.4
30.0
29.7
8.2
8.1
7.9
7.8
14.5
14.0
13.6
13.5
25.2
22.9
23.8
22.9
29.8
27.0
26.3
25.9
29.2
28.5
26.7
26.5
25.8
25.2
24.6
24.2
7.7
7.4
7.3
7.3
25.3
25.0
24.4
24.3
42.1
42.2
42.3
42.4
40.7
40.9
41.0
41.1
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.2
28.3
66.7
101.5
123.5
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
23.4
36.2
69.3
115.9
127.7
2.0
2.8
5.1
10.8
18.0
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
2.4
4.1
7.5
14.5
22.3
4.5
7.6
13.0
20.4
26.7
3.8
6.1
10.5
18.3
20.2
2.7
3.9
6.7
12.6
14.9
0.9
1.2
2.8
4.0
3.9
49.3
54.7
54.4
56.6
58.0
..
35.8
36.8
36.0
35.2
..
33.6
33.6
33.1
33.2
1986
1991
1996
130.7
..
..
153.9
158.7
157.1
128.8
130.9
126.9
25.1
27.8
30.2
12.8
13.4
13.8
30.7
28.7
34.1
28.6
30.7
33.9
22.0
25.0
27.9
15.8
17.3
19.3
4.1
4.5
5.1
55.0
52.7
47.7
35.3
36.0
37.3
33.6
34.3
35.6
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001p
2002
2003p
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
146.7
145.2
144.6
141.1
143.8
147.7
153.5
118.3
116.8
115.4
112.6
114.6
117.5
121.9
28.4
28.5
29.1
28.5
29.2
30.2
31.6
13.0
13.0
13.0
12.7
12.9
13.3
13.9
31.7
32.7
30.1
29.3
23.9
26.3
26.6
32.2
32.6
32.1
30.8
29.2
30.1
28.9
26.7
27.1
27.4
27.2
27.6
28.3
27.7
18.6
19.0
19.6
19.6
20.5
21.7
23.1
4.9
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.7
6.2
45.9
44.3
41.7
39.6
37.8
35.9
33.7
37.7
37.9
38.4
38.8
39.1
39.4
39.8
36.0
36.3
36.9
37.3
37.7
38.2
38.7
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
36.1
36.0
35.4
36.3
28.8
28.5
28.3
29.0
7.3
7.5
7.1
7.3
13.1
13.0
12.6
12.9
25.4
23.7
22.9
23.8
30.8
29.4
28.0
28.6
28.0
27.6
27.5
27.4
20.6
20.5
20.2
20.8
5.4
5.5
5.2
5.4
38.3
37.7
37.9
37.3
39.0
39.2
39.1
39.1
37.6
37.8
37.7
37.8
2002 MarchP
JuneP
SeptpP
Dec
..
..
..
..
35.8
37.4
38.0
36.6
28.5
29.7
30.2
29.2
7.3
7.7
7.8
7.4
13.1
13.5
13.6
13.1
25.8
27.0
26.5
25.8
29.7
30.3
30.6
29.7
28.1
28.7
28.4
27.8
21.2
22.1
22.1
21.2
5.6
5.8
5.9
5.6
36.2
35.9
35.6
36.0
39.4
39.4
39.5
39.5
38.0
38.2
38.2
38.2
2003 MarchP
Junep
Septp
Decp
..
..
..
..
39.4
38.6
37.9
37.6
31.3
30.7
30.0
29.9
8.1
7.9
8.0
7.6
14.4
14.0
13.6
13.5
28.4
26.4
26.4
25.3
30.8
28.8
27.6
28.4
29.4
28.1
26.9
26.3
23.8
23.3
23.0
22.3
6.4
6.2
6.0
6.1
34.4
33.7
33.3
33.3
39.7
39.8
39.8
39.9
38.5
38.7
38.8
38.9
Notes: Divorce rates for 1986–2000 have been calculated using the interim revised marital status estimates (based on the original mid-2001 estimates) and are subject to further
revision. The marital status estimates for 2001 take account of the provisional results of the Manchester matching exercise. Rates for 2002 and 2003 are based on mid-2002
estimates released on 27 February 2004, which are consistent with the mid-2002 population estimates released on 27 January 2004.
1 The mean/median ages shown in this table are unstandardised and therefore take no account of changes in the structure of the population by age or marital status.
p Provisional.
See 'in brief' or 'Notes to tables'.
Divorce petitions entered by year and quarter 1995–2003
England and Wales
Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Numbers (thousands)
March Qtr
46.8
45.5
35.6
43.0
41.4
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
Dec Qtr
Year
March Qtr
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
Dec Qtr
41.9
44.5
43.7
40.3
39.5
45.7
45.3
44.0
42.1
41.3
40.5
43.4
40.9
41.0
40.5
2000
2001
2002
2003
39.3
39.7
41.0
42.3
37.6
40.6
42.3
40.6
39.5
40.7
42.6
41.9
41.8
41.2
44.7
43.2
Note: The Divorce Reform Act 1969 became operative on 1 January 1971 – the Matrimonial and Family Proceedings Act came into effect on 12 October 1984.
Figures include petitions for nullity
Source: The Court Service.
71
National Statistics
Population Trends 117
Autumn 2004
Notes to tables
Time Series
For most tables, years start at 1971 and then
continue at five-year intervals until 1991.
Individual years are shown thereafter. If a year is
not present the data are not available.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom comprises England, Wales,
Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Channel
Islands and the Isle of Man are not part of the
United Kingdom.
Population
The estimated and projected populations of an
area include all those usually resident in the area,
whatever their nationality. Members of HM forces
stationed outside the United Kingdom are excluded.
Students are taken to be resident at their term-time
addresses.
Live births
For England and Wales, figures relate to numbers
occurring in a period; for Scotland and Northern
Ireland, figures relate to those registered in a
period.
Perinatal mortality
In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth
was changed, from baby born dead after 28
completed weeks of gestation or more, to one
born dead after 24 completed weeks of gestation
or more.
Expectation of life
The life tables on which these expectations are
based use current death rates to describe mortality
levels for each year. Each individual year shown
is based on a three-year period, so that for instance
1986 represents 1985–87. More details can be found
in Population Trends 60, page 23.
Deaths
Figures for England and Wales represent the
numbers of deaths registered in each year up
to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in
each year from 1993, though provisional figures
are registrations. Figures for both Scotland and
Northern Ireland represent the number of deaths
registered in each year.
Age-standardised mortality
Directly age-standardised rates make allowances
for changes in the age structure of the population.
The age-standardised rate for a particular condition
is that which would have occurred if the observed
age-specific rates for the condition had applied
in a given standard population. Table 2.2 uses
the European Standard Population. This is a
hypothetical population standard which is the same
for both males and females allowing standardised
rates to be compared for each sex, and between
males and females.
International Migration
A migrant is defined as someone who changes his
or her country of usual residence for a period of
at least a year, so that the country of destination
effectively becomes the country of usual residence.
Figures in Tables 7.1–7.3 are compiled from
several main sources of migration data:
• The richest source of information on
international migrants comes from the
International Passenger Survey (IPS), which
is a sample survey of passengers arriving at,
and departing from, the main United Kingdom
air and sea ports and Channel tunnel. This
survey provides migration estimates based on
respondentsʼ intended length of stay in the UK
or abroad and excludes most persons seeking
asylum and some dependants of such asylum
seekers.
National Statistics 72
• Two adjustments are made to account for
people who do not realise their intended length
of stay on arrival. First, visitor data from the
IPS are used to estimate ‘visitor switchersʼ:
those people who initially come to or leave the
UK for a short period but subsequently stay
for a year or longer. (For years before 2001,
estimates of non-European Economic Area
(non-EEA) national visitor switcher inflows
are made from the Home Office database of
after-entry applications to remain in the UK).
Second, people who intend to be migrants, but
who in reality stay in the UK or abroad for less
than a year (‘migrant switchersʼ), are estimated
from IPS migrant data.
• Home Office data on asylum seekers and their
dependants.
• Estimates of migration between the UK and
the Irish Republic estimated using information
from the Irish Quarterly National Household
Survey and the National Health Service Central
Register, agreed between the Central Statistics
Office and the ONS.
For years prior to 1991, the figures in Tables
7.1–7.3 are based only on data from the IPS. After
taking account of those groups of migrants known
not to be covered by the IPS, it is estimated that
the adjustment needed to net migration ranges
from about 10 thousand in 1981 to just over 20
thousand in 1986. From 1991, the figures in Tables
7.1–7.3 are based on data from all the sources and
represent Total International Migration.
Old Commonwealth is defined as Australia,
Canada, New Zealand and South Africa;
New Commonwealth is defined as all other
Commonwealth countries.
Middle East is defined as Bahrain, Iran, Iraq,
Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and
Yemen.
Internal Migration
Figures in Table 8.1 are based on the movement
of NHS doctorsʼ patients between former Health
Authorities (HAs) in England and Wales, and Area
Health Boards in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Yearly and quarterly figures have been adjusted
to take account of differences in recorded crossborder flows between England and Wales, Scotland
and Northern Ireland.
Prior to reorganisation of health authority
databases from Family Health Service Authorities
(FHSAs) to HAs some database boundaries
were realigned. This included in a few cases
transferring patients between databases to fit the
new boundaries. For the most part, this movement
was done outside the NHSCR system and therefore
had no effect on migration data. However a small
number were transferred within the system. As
migration estimates derived from NHSCR are
the product of an administrative system (when
patients re-register with GPs) this had the effect
of generating small numbers of spurious migrants
where no actual change of address had taken place.
We have been advised of adjustments required to
data by the Department of Health and these have
been made to migration data.
The NHS Central Register (NHSCR) at Southport
was computerised in early 1991, prior to which
a three month time lag was assumed between a
person moving and their re-registration with an
NHS doctor being processed onto the NHSCR.
Since computerisation, estimates of internal
migration are based on the date of acceptance
of the new patient by the HA (not previously
available), and a one month time lag assumed.
It has been established that NHSCR data underreport the migration of males aged between 16
and 36. Currently, however, there are no suitable
sources of data available to enable adjustments
or revisions to be made to the estimates. Further
research is planned on this topic and new data
sources may become available in the future.
However, for the present time, historical estimates
will not be revised and future estimates will not be
adjusted.
Marriages and divorces
Marriages are tabulated according to date of
solemnisation. Divorces are tabulated according
to date of decree absolute, and the term ‘divorcesʼ
includes decrees of nullity. The fact that a marriage
or divorce has taken place in England and Wales
does not mean either of the parties is resident
there.
EU Enlargement
The coverage of European countries in Table 1.1
has been updated to reflect the enlargement of
the EU to 25 member countries (EU25) on 1 May
2004. The new member countries are: Cyprus,
Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
The main data source for these countries is the
United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics.
Sources
Figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland have
been provided by the General Register Office
for Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics
and Research Agency respectively, except for the
projections in Table 1.2 which are provided by the
Government Actuary. The International Passenger
Survey (Tables 7.1–7.3) is conducted by the Social
Survey Division of ONS.
Rounding
All figures are rounded independently; constituent
parts may not add to totals. Generally numbers
and rates per 1,000 population are rounded to one
decimal place (e.g. 123.4); where appropriate, for
small figures (below 10.0), two decimal places are
given (e.g. 7.62). Figures which are provisional
or estimated are given in less detail (e.g. 123 or
7.6 respectively) if their reliability does not justify
giving the standard amount of detail. Where figures
need to be treated with particular caution, an
explanation is given as a footnote.
Latest figures
Figures for the latest quarters and years may be
provisional and will be updated in future issues
when later information becomes available. Where
figures are not yet available, cells are left blank.
Shaded background
A shaded background indicates figures that are
or may be subject to change: the grey shading
signifies that the underlying estimates relate to
those originally published; the coloured shading
indicates estimates that have already been revised,
from the original, but will or may be subject to
further revision; see ‘in briefʼ for details.
The subnational projections in Table 1.3 are shaded
grey because they are based on the mid-1996
population estimates and are therefore not directly
comparable with the latest estimates shown in the
same tables.
Population Trends 117
Autumn 2004
Report:
Divorces in England and
Wales during 2003
●
●
KEY OBSERVATIONS
●
●
●
●
●
There were 153,490 divorces in England and Wales in 2003, a rise
of 3.9 per cent on the 2002 figure of 147,735 (Table 1). This is the
third successive annual increase and is the highest annual number of
divorces since 1996. The provisional divorce rate also increased to
13.9 divorcing people per 1,000 married population in 2003 from 13.4
in 2002 (Table 3).
There were 167,591 petitions filed for divorce (dissolution of
marriage) in 2003, two per cent fewer than the number in 2002 and
6.4 per cent fewer than in 1991 (Table 1).
Sixty-nine per cent of divorces in 2003 were between couples where
the marriage had been the first for both parties, compared with 74
per cent in 1991 and 81 per cent in 1981. The percentage of men
and women divorcing in 2003 who were single prior to marriage,
irrespective of their partnerʼs previous marital status, was just under
80 per cent for both sexes (Table 2).
A tenth of divorces in 2003 were between couples who had both been
divorced prior to their marriage, double the proportion in 1981
(Table 2).
More than two-thirds (69 per cent) of divorces in 2003 were granted
to the wife, and in more than half (52 per cent) of cases the fact
proven for these divorces was the husbandʼs behaviour. For divorces
granted to the husband the most common fact proven was two
yearsʼ separation with consent (31 per cent), followed by the wifeʼs
behaviour (30 per cent) and adultery (26 per cent). See Figure 1.
●
The highest divorce rate for men was for those in their early thirties,
while the highest for women was for those in their late twenties. In
2003, there were 27.7 divorces per 1,000 married men aged 30–34 and
28.9 divorces per 1,000 married women aged 25–29 (Table 3).
The mean age at divorce for both men and women continued to rise
in 2003. For men the average age was 42.3 years, while for women it
was 39.8. The corresponding ages in 2002 were 41.9 and 39.4 years
respectively. The average age for both sexes was almost four years
older in 2003 than in 1991 (Table 3).
The median duration of marriage for divorces granted in 2003
increased to 11.3 years, up from 11.1 in 2002 and 9.8 in 1991.
Figure 1
Facts proven at divorce and to whom granted,
2003
England and Wales
55
50
45
Divorces (thousands)
This Report provides provisional summary statistics of divorces granted
in England and Wales during 2003, and compares them with the figures
for previous years. Full details of divorces in 2003 will be published in
summer 2005 in the annual reference volume Marriage, divorce and
adoption statistics 2003 (Series FM2 no. 31). (See Explanatory Notes.)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
●
The proportion of all divorces granted in 2003 with behaviour as the
fact proven (45 per cent) was almost the same as the proportion in
1991 (46 per cent). However, there were differences in the proportions
granted following separation or adultery: 33 per cent of divorces in
2003 had separation as the fact proven compared with 24 per cent in
1991, while adultery accounted for 22 per cent of divorces in 2003,
but 28 per cent in 1991.
0
Husband Wife Husband Wife Husband Wife Husband Wife Husband Wife
Adultery
Behaviour
Desertion
Separation:
2 years and consent
Fact proven and to whom
73 National Statistics
Separation:
5 years
Population Trends 117
Table 1
Autumn 2004
Dissolutions and annulments of marriage, 1971, 1981, 1991, 1996, 1999–2003
England and Wales
Petitions* filed for:
Nullity
Divorce (dissolution of marriage)
Decrees granted
Decree of nullity
Decree absolute
of which:
Granted to husband
Granted to wife
Granted to both
1971
1981
1991
1996
1999
2000
878
110,017
1,050
176,162
771
73,666
29,285
43,802
579
2001
2002
2003
619
179,103
702
177,970
549
162,137
452
157,809
657
161,580
758
171,054
368
167,591
950
144,763
444
158,301
415
156,692
323
144,233
352
140,783
250
143,568
197
147,538
196
153,294
42,085
102,170
508
43,961
113,947
393
46,712
109,489
491
43,413
100,469
351
42,311
98,227
245
44,378
98,992
198
44,694
102,676
168
46,915
106,208
171
* Source: The Court Service.
Table 2
Previous marital status of person divorcing*, 1981, 1991, 2001–2003
England and Wales
Year of divorce
Males
Females
Total
1981
Total
Bachelors
Divorced men
Widowers
1991
Total
Bachelors
Divorced men
Widowers
2001
Total
Bachelors
Divorced men
Widowers
2002
Total
Bachelors
Divorced men
Widowers
2003
Total
Bachelors
Divorced men
Widowers
Spinsters
Numbers
Divorced women
Numbers
Percentages
145,713
100.0
127,685
87.6
15,853
10.9
2,175
1.5
127,564
16,220
1,929
87.5
11.1
1.3
118,750
8,378
557
81.5
5.7
0.4
7,997
7,096
760
5.5
4.9
0.5
817
746
612
0.6
0.5
0.4
158,745
100.0
130,897
82.5
26,226
16.5
1,622
1.0
129,784
27,554
1,407
81.8
17.4
0.9
117,232
13,295
370
73.8
8.4
0.2
12,035
13,487
704
7.6
8.5
0.4
517
772
333
0.3
0.5
0.2
143,818
100.0
114,631
79.7
28,056
19.5
1,131
0.8
114,311
28,450
1,057
79.5
19.8
0.7
100,541
13,790
300
69.9
9.6
0.2
13,382
14,100
574
9.3
9.8
0.4
388
560
183
0.3
0.4
0.1
147,735
100.0
117,533
79.6
29,056
19.7
1,146
0.8
116,913
29,709
1,113
79.1
20.1
0.8
102,774
14,445
314
69.6
9.8
0.2
13,736
14,688
632
9.3
9.9
0.4
403
576
167
0.3
0.4
0.1
153,490
100.0
121,896
79.4
30,391
19.8
1,203
0.8
121,395
31,101
994
79.1
20.3
0.6
106,444
15,193
259
69.3
9.9
0.2
14,533
15,266
592
9.5
9.9
0.4
418
642
143
0.3
0.4
0.1
* The term divorce here includes both decrees absolute and decrees of nullity.
National Statistics 74
Percentages
Numbers
Percentages
Widows
Numbers
Percentages
Table 3
Population Trends 117
Autumn 2004
2001
2002
Age of person divorcing, 1981,1991, 2001–2003*
England and Wales
1981
Husband
1991
Wife
Husband
Wife
Husband
Wife
Husband
2003
Wife
Husband
Wife
Numbers divorcing
All ages
145,713
145,713
158,745
158,745
143,818
143,818
147,735
147,735
153,490
153,490
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
39
8,615
29,114
33,064
24,688
283
19,812
33,299
31,104
22,459
50
6,477
27,753
33,532
27,957
321
14,639
35,582
33,195
25,661
11
1,607
11,713
27,480
31,322
97
4,546
18,231
31,489
31,164
13
1,695
10,916
26,792
31,937
87
4,721
17,227
30,982
32,282
13
1,764
10,312
25,890
32,755
94
4,773
16,539
30,345
33,519
40–44
45–49
50–59
60 and over
18,187
12,767
13,774
5,440
15,276
9,902
9,805
3,748
25,199
16,896
15,408
5,454
21,979
13,607
10,543
3,199
25,470
18,048
21,585
6,580
23,190
15,501
15,905
3,693
26,989
19,601
22,852
6,940
25,017
16,591
16,915
3,913
29,437
21,062
24,724
7,531
27,610
18,225
18,127
4,256
Not known
25
25
19
19
2
2
0
0
2
2
37.7
35.2
38.6
36.0
41.5
39.1
41.9
39.4
42.3
39.8
Mean age at divorce (years)
Rates (divorces per thousand
married men/women)
All ages
11.9
13.5
12.9
13.4
13.9
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
2.0
18.5
27.6
22.8
18.6
3.0
24.4
26.7
20.2
16.6
6.2
26.0
31.0
27.8
22.8
9.9
29.9
30.7
25.0
19.9
2.0
21.9
27.6
28.0
25.1
5.9
25.6
29.2
27.6
23.0
2.7
24.1
28.8
28.7
25.9
6.3
27.9
30.1
28.3
24.1
2.7
25.1
27.2
27.7
26.6
6.8
28.2
28.9
27.7
25.0
40–44
45–49
50–59
60 and over
15.2
11.0
5.8
1.7
12.9
8.7
4.3
1.4
17.6
13.6
7.1
1.6
15.0
10.9
5.1
1.2
20.5
15.3
8.7
1.9
17.9
12.8
6.5
1.3
21.4
16.6
9.2
2.0
19.2
13.8
6.8
1.4
23.4
17.9
9.9
2.2
21.2
15.1
7.3
1.5
* 2003 rates are provisional as they were produced using the 2002 population estimates by marital status; the 2003 estimates were not available at the time of compilation of these
data. See also Explanatory Notes.
Table 4
Children of couples divorced*, 1971, 1981, 1991, 1996, 1999–2003
England and Wales
Year of
divorce
Number of couples by number of children aged under 16
1
2
3
4
1971
1981
1991
1996
17,223
34,576
35,663
33,501
14,998
36,765
37,388
36,715
6,400
11,699
11,816
12,514
3,018
2,775
3,288
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
30,745
29,883
30,996
31,941
33,588
33,550
32,633
33,596
34,381
35,355
11,238
10,757
11,076
11,111
11,265
2,953
2,759
2,803
2,750
2,821
5 or more
Number of children aged under 16 by age-group
Total
0–4
5–10
11–15
Total
780
704
915
42,039
86,838
88,346
86,933
20,734
40,281
52,738
46,029
40,700
67,582
68,074
71,620
20,870
51,540
39,872
44,849
82,304
159,403
160,684
162,498
812
744
806
814
780
79,298
76,776
79,277
80,997
83,809
37,706
35,095
34,783
33,682
33,049
66,442
64,072
65,522
66,351
67,654
43,573
43,290
46,609
49,302
52,824
147,721
142,457
146,914
149,335
153,527
3,418
* The term divorce here includes both decrees absolute and decrees of nullity.
Note: Children are children of the family, and will include adopted and stepchildren who are part of the family; ages are those at petition to divorce.
75 National Statistics
Population Trends 117
●
Autumn 2004
More than half (55 per cent) of couples divorcing in 2003 had at least
one child aged under 16, the same percentage as in 2002; in 1991 this
proportion was 56 per cent (Table 4).
Rates for 1991, 2001 and 2002 are also subject to revision: revised
marital status estimates will be published in October 2004.
Mean ages
●
A total of 153,527 children aged under 16 were in families where the
parents divorced in 2003, of whom 22 per cent were aged under 5.
This compares with 160,884 in 1991, almost a third of whom were
under 5 (Table 4).
The mean ages presented in this Report have not been standardised for
age and therefore do not take account of the changing age structure of the
population.
Children of divorcing couples
EXPLANATORY NOTES
Decrees absolute and decrees of nullity
A marriage may be either dissolved, following a petition for divorce and
the granting of a decree absolute, or annulled, following a petition for
nullity and the awarding of a decree of nullity. In this Report the term
divorce includes both decrees absolute and decrees of nullity, although,
strictly speaking, it should refer only to dissolutions.
Divorce rates
All rates for 2003 are provisional as they were produced using the 2002
mid-year marital status population estimates. These estimates are the
latest available and were published on 27 February 2004. They include
the update to the Manchester population estimates that was made as
a result of the Census matching exercise; they also include a smaller
correction made as a result of errors in armed forces data. The 2003
marital status estimates will be available in November 2004.
National Statistics 76
Table 4 shows children of divorcing couples. Children of the family are
those as defined by the Matrimonial Causes Act 1973 (Section 52). As
well as children born to the divorcing couple, this includes children born
out of wedlock, children of previous marriages, and adopted children,
provided that they were treated by both partners as children of the family.
Children are analysed by age at petition, not at divorce.
Divorces in England and Wales during 2002
Full details of divorces in 2002 are still to be published in the annual
reference volume Marriage, divorce and adoption statistics 2002 (Series
FM2 no. 30). Publication of this volume was postponed from July 2004
to allow the inclusion of the revised marital status estimates scheduled
for publication in October 2004.
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
Report
Internal migration
estimates for local and
unitary authorities in
England and Wales, health
authorities in England and
former health authorities
in Wales, 2003
This report presents estimates of internal migration within the UK for
England and Wales. Estimates are provided for moves to and from local
and unitary authorities in England and Wales, health authorities1 in
England and former health authorities in Wales from and to the rest of
the UK. Table 1 shows migration (in, out and net) by gender for all local
and unitary authorities in England and Wales, grouped by Government
Office Region (GOR) within England, for mid-2002 to mid-2003. Table
2 shows migration (in, out and net) by gender for all health authorities in
England and former health authorities in Wales, grouped by GOR within
England, for mid-2002 to mid-2003. Summary tables from mid-1997 to
mid-1998 onwards are available on the National Statistics website at http:
//www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/Product.asp?vlnk=7070
•
•
The highest levels of migration activity (gross flows in and out) were
observed in London and other metropolitan areas. The five local
authorities with the largest gross flows in the year to mid-2003 were
Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Wandsworth and Lambeth. These
five areas also had the highest levels of migration activity in the
previous five mid-year to mid-year periods.
The South West Peninsula health authority recorded the highest net
inflow of the new strategic health authorities in the year to mid-2003.
The largest net outflows were recorded for the five London strategic
health authorities and Birmingham and the Black Country.
RESULTS
KEY OBSERVATIONS
GORs and Local and Unitary Authorities
•
Table 1 shows migration flows by gender for all local and unitary
authorities in England and Wales, grouped by county and GOR within
England, for mid-2002 to mid-2003. GOR totals are also presented in
Table 1, but it should be noted that these figures do not include moves
between the local and unitary authorities within a GOR, so the local and
unitary authority figures do not sum to the GOR totals.
•
As in previous years, the South West region experienced the largest
net gain in internal migrants of all GORs. Of the 25 local authorities
that recorded a net inflow of 1,500 or more, just over half were from
either the East Midlands or the South West GORs.
London recorded a net outflow of more than 110,000 people between
mid-2002 and mid-2003. At the local and unitary authority level,
Birmingham recorded the largest net outflow, but the next 13 largest
were recorded by London boroughs. Of the 37 areas that recorded a
net outflow of 1,500 or more, 24 were London boroughs.
Table A and Figure 1 summarise moves to and from GORs and Wales.
Most noticeable is the net outflow of 110,000 people from the London
GOR. The net outflow from London has grown over the last two years
77
National Statistics
Po pul ati o n Tre n ds 1 1 7
Table A
Autumn 2004
Moves to and from GORs and Wales, mid-2002
to mid-2003
Table B
Largest net inflows and net outflows due to
internal migration, mid-2002 to mid-2003, by
local and unitary authority
(thousands)
Region
North East
North West
Yorkshire and The Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
Wales
In
Out
Net
42.5
109.8
99.6
118.5
97.4
146.8
152.5
225.6
142.5
63.8
40.6
106.4
93.8
97.2
102.3
128.9
262.9
216.0
109.7
48.6
1.9
3.4
5.9
21.3
-4.8
17.9
-110.4
9.6
32.8
15.2
Note: the figures in Table A do not sum to zero because flows to and from Scotland
and Northern Ireland are included in the migration figures.
FigureA1
Table
Net Migration into GORs and Wales, mid-2002
to mid-2003
North East
North West
Yorkshire and The Humber
East Midlands
Largest net inflows (thousands)
East Riding of Yorkshire
North Somerset
East Lindsey
Arun
Tendring
Carmarthenshire
Torbay
West Dorset
Fenland
Canterbury
Restormel
Largest net outflows (thousands)
4.2
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
Birmingham
Newham
Brent
Ealing
Lambeth
Southwark
Haringey
Hackney
Lewisham
Hounslow
–10.8
–9.2
–8.2
–7.8
–7.3
–6.9
–6.8
–6.1
–5.7
–5.1
Most local and unitary authorities in England and Wales had a net flow
of internal migrants similar to that of the previous year. In the year
ending mid-2003, 83 per cent of authorities had a net flow within ±500
of their mid-2002 estimates. The largest year-on-year increase in net
inflows occurred in Redbridge, where a net outflow of 1,400 in mid-2002
changed to a net flow of zero in mid-2003. The largest increase in net
outflows occurred in Westminster, which experienced a net inflow of
900 in mid-2002 but a net outflow of 1,200 in mid-2003. However, the
large change in net flow for Westminster is as a result of relatively small
changes in the gross flows.
West Midlands
East
Table C
London
South East
Migration activity in London boroughs, mid2002 to mid-2003 and mid-2001 to mid-2002
South West
Boroughs with highest inflow
(thousands)
Wales
-120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0
20
Net migration (thousands)
40
from 69,000 in mid-2001 and 98,000 in mid-2002. This change is due to
both inflows reducing and outflows increasing over this two year period.
The only other area to record a net outflow in mid-2003 was the West
Midlands, with a net outflow of 5,000.
The remaining GORs and Wales experienced net inflows during the year.
The largest net inflow, as in the previous three years, was experienced
by the South West, with 33,000 more people moving to the region than
moving from it. Other regions with relatively large net inflows were the
East Midlands (21,000), the East (18,000) and Wales (15,000).
The South East experienced the highest level of internal migration
activity over the year, with 442,000 people moving either to or from the
region. The net effect of this activity was an inflow of 10,000 people.
The North East and North West have both recorded a relatively steady
change from a net outflow in mid-2000 to a net inflow in mid-2003.
Similarly, Yorkshire and The Humber recorded a very small net inflow in
mid-2000 and this has since increased steadily to 6,000 in mid-2003.
Approximately two-thirds of local and unitary authorities experienced
a net inflow or outflow of fewer than a thousand migrants in mid-2003.
Table B shows the eleven authorities with the largest net inflows and ten
authorities with the largest net outflows during the period. The largest net
inflow was observed in the East Riding of Yorkshire UA (4,200) and the
largest net outflow was in Birmingham (10,800). These two authorities
also had the largest estimated net inflows and outflows in the years
ending mid-2000, mid-2001 and mid-2002.
National Statistics
78
Boroughs with highest outflow
(thousands)
Mid-2002 to mid-2003
Wandsworth
Lambeth
Westminster
Barnet
Ealing
24.6
21.5
18.1
18.0
17.4
Mid-2002 to mid-2003
Wandsworth
Lambeth
Ealing
Southwark
Newham
28.9
28.7
25.2
23.2
22.5
Mid-2001 to mid-2002
Wandsworth
Lambeth
Westminster
Ealing
Barnet
23.9
20.4
19.3
18.0
17.8
Mid-2001 to mid-2002
Wandsworth
Lambeth
Ealing
Southwark
Brent
28.0
27.9
24.3
22.3
22.3
London
London boroughs2 have high levels of internal migration activity. In the
year ending mid-2003 the average inflow into a London borough was
14,200 and the average outflow was 17,700. Table C shows the London
boroughs with the highest levels of migration activity in the year to
mid-2003 compared with the previous year. This shows Wandsworth and
Lambeth as the boroughs with the highest inflows and outflows in both
years. The estimated flows for these two boroughs have all increased
notably between the two years.
As noted earlier, the London GOR as a whole experienced a large net
outflow in the year to mid-2003. The largest net outflows were seen in
Newham (9,200), Brent (8,200), Ealing (7,800) and Lambeth (7,300).
Havering was the only London borough to record a net inflow (200).
Health Authorities
Table 2 shows migration flows by gender for all health authorities in
England and Wales, grouped by GOR within England, for the year
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Table D
Largest net inflows and net outflows due to
internal migration, mid-2002 to mid-2003, by
health authority
Largest net inflows (thousands)
Largest net outflows (thousands)
South West Peninsula
Trent
Norfolk, Suffolk and
Cambridgeshire
Dorset and Somerset
Surrey and Sussex
North and East Yorkshire and
Northern Lincolnshire
Cumbria and Lancashire
North West London
North East London
South East London
North Central London
Birmingham and the Black Country
South West London
16.9
16.0
15.0
10.2
8.5
32.0
25.4
21.8
18.9
15.2
12.4
8.3
8.3
ending mid-2003. As in Table 1, GOR totals are presented but these do
not include moves between health authorities within each GOR.
Table D shows the health authorities with the largest net inflows and
outflows due to internal migration in the year ending mid-2003. The
South West Peninsula health authority recorded the largest net inflow
of 16,900 during the year. Large net inflows were also recorded for the
Trent (16,000) and Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire (15,000) health
authorities.
There are five strategic health authorities in London. These recorded five
of the six highest net outflows for the year, with the highest being North
West London at 32,000. The only other area to experience net outflows
of a comparable level was Birmingham and the Black Country, with a net
outflow of 15,200.
EXPLANATORY NOTES
Internal migration estimates for England and Wales are produced using
a combination of two data sources: the National Health Service Central
Register (NHSCR); and GPsʼ patient registers (PRDS, standing for
Patient Register Data System).
Estimating migration at health authority level
The NHSCR at Southport provides a comprehensive system to assist
with NHS patient administration in England and Wales. One of its roles
is to record the transfer of patients between former HAs. These data are
collected and used as a proxy for internal migration. When a patient
moves to a different former HA and changes his or her GP, this change
of GP is recorded by the NHSCR. However, the NHSCR does not record
information on the actual change of address. For the purpose of making
migration estimates, it is assumed that a change of GP to a different
former HA represents a change of address to a different former HA area.
It is also assumed that the average delay between moving house and
registering with a new GP is about one month. Migration estimates have
been derived from this source since 1975.
It should be noted that these records do not provide perfect estimates of
migration. Their accuracy depends on migrants promptly re-registering
with a new GP when they change their address. It is known that reregistration patterns vary by sex and age group. For example, young
children, their mothers and the elderly usually re-register quite quickly
after moving, while young men take longer to re-register than women of
the same age.
While this data source can provide quarterly and annual estimates of
migration at former HA (and hence SHA) level by age and gender, it
cannot provide any estimates below that level. For this reason, NHSCR
data are combined with PRDS data, described below, to create migration
estimates at local and unitary authority level.
Autumn 2004
Estimating migration at local and unitary authority
level
Every former HA in England and Wales holds a register of the patients
registered with GPs within their area of responsibility. This contains the
NHS number, gender, date of birth, date of acceptance at the HA, and
importantly, the postcode of address, for each patient. By obtaining a
download from each patient register on an annual basis and by combining
all patient register extracts together, ONS can create a total register
for the whole of England and Wales. Comparing records in one year
with those of the previous year by linking on NHS number enables
identification of people who have changed their postcode. A migrant is
defined as a person who has changed their area of residence between one
year and the next. The download is taken on 31 July each year to enable
migration estimates to be made for the year ending 30 June that year. In
line with NHSCR data, this allows a month between a patient moving
and registering with a new GP. The patient register data were used for the
first time to produce migration estimates for the year ending mid-1998.
ONS carried out extensive research to investigate whether the patient
registers represented a suitable source of migration data. That research
is described elsewhere.3,4 The main conclusions were that data from the
patient registers could be used to provide migration estimates that are
consistent and plausible over time. By aggregating postcodes, these data
can be used to provide annual estimates of migration for local and unitary
authority areas. In addition, the quality of the information held on patient
registers has been improving over time and is expected to continue to
improve.
However, migration estimates derived solely from the patient registers
have two problems. The first is that a small number of records have a
missing data item. This is particularly problematic when the postcode
is missing. To overcome this, missing data items are imputed using the
information held on other patient records. Second, by comparing patient
registers in two consecutive years, certain groups of moves that occur
during the year will be missed. This is because patient registers cannot
capture the movement of those migrants who were not registered with
a doctor in one of the two years, but who moved during the year. The
largest group of these is migrant babies aged less than one year, who
would not be on a register at the start of the year. Other people who are
not on the register at the start of the year but who move after joining the
NHS and before the end of the year would not be captured either, for
example those leaving the armed forces, or international in-migrants.
Similarly, people who move within the year but are not on a register at
the end of the year are not captured. Such people would include anyone
who moved and then, before the end of the year, either died, enlisted in
the armed forces or left the country. All of these within-year moves are
included in the existing migration estimates derived from the NHSCR, so
the more complete information from the NHSCR is combined with the
more geographically detailed data from the patient registers to produce
migration estimates for local and unitary authority areas.
FUTURE RESEARCH INTO INTERNAL MIGRATION DATA
The equivalent report for mid-2002 estimates5 noted that research was
underway into whether there was a need to revise internal migration
estimates. This research has now been completed and no revisions will
be made at this time. ONS will continue to investigate whether new
sources provide suitable data on which revisions and/or adjustments can
be based. Further information from this research can be found on the
National Statistics website at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/
Product.asp?vlnk=11252.
79
National Statistics
Po pul ati o n Tre n ds 1 1 7
Autumn 2004
DATA AVAILABILITY
Table 5c
Internal migration data are disseminated via Population Trends, Social
Trends and Social Focus, Regional Trends and Key Population and Vital
Statistics. The new patient register data were introduced in 2000 (for
years ending mid-1998 and mid-1999 tables) to complement the existing
internal migration data.
Numbers to and from each local and unitary
authority in England and Wales, from and to the rest
of the UK, by sex and 5 year age group.
†Table 5d
Numbers to and from each former health authority in
England and Wales, from and to the rest of the UK,
by sex and 5 year age group.
Quarterly data
The following migration outputs are available from ONS for twelvemonth periods ending March, June, September and December each year.
The earliest is that ending December 1975, while the latest is usually
ready about nine months after the end of the period. Tables for periods
prior to June 2001 are based on Family Health Service Authorities
(FHSAs) rather than former HAs. The following tables are based only on
NHSCR data and do not include the PRDS data. Table 1 is available free
of charge on request, while a small charge will be made for Tables 2a, 2b
and 3, to cover production and distribution costs.
Table 1
Numbers to and from a former HA, from and to the rest
of the UK, by sex and five-year age group.
Table 2a
Matrix of totals to and from every former HA, from and
to each other HA.
Table 2b
Numbers to and from a former HA, from and to each
other HA by broad age group.
Table 3
For a GOR of choice, numbers by broad age group in
square matrix tables of origin and destination.
In addition, ONS have recently used the PRDS data in the production of
annual mid-year versions of the NHSCR-based origin/destination tables
(Tables 2a, 2b and 3). The following tables are available on request for
all years from the year ending mid-1999 through to the latest year.
Table 2a
Origin/destination matrix of flows between local
and unitary authorities (†or between former
health authorities) in England and Wales.
Table 2b
An origin/destination table showing moves
between a chosen local or unitary authority (†or
former health authority) and each other local or
unitary authority (†or former health authority) in
England and Wales, by broad age group.
Table 3
An origin/destination matrix with a broad age
breakdown showing moves between the local
and unitary authorities in a chosen Government
Office Region (GOR) or Wales (†or between
former health authorities in a chosen former
NHS Regional Office or Wales). In addition,
this table contains information on moves
between each of the other GORs (†or former
NHS Regional Offices) in England and Wales.
Annual data
Local and unitary authority estimates derived from the combination
of NHSCR and PRDS data are available annually. In previous years,
combined NHSCR and PRDS data were also used to produce estimates
by former health authority. Whilst the total flows from these estimates
were consistent with estimates derived from the NHSCR alone, the
profile by age and sex differed. Therefore we will not be publishing the
combined NHSCR/PRDS former health authority tables from mid-2003
onwards. We can meet any requirement for internal migration data by
former or strategic health authority from NHSCR data alone. Tables for
previous years will remain available. These tables are denoted by the
symbol † in the list below. All tables are first available for the year ending
mid-1998.
Ad hoc data
The tables below can be obtained free of charge from the National
Statistics website at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/
Product.asp?vlnk=7070.
The only demographic characteristics available for internal migration
estimates are age and sex.
Summary Table 1 Numbers to and from each local and unitary
authority in England and Wales, from and to the rest
of the UK by sex.
†
Summary Table 2 Numbers to and from each former health authority in
England and Wales, from and to the rest of the UK
by sex.
Table 5a
Numbers to and from each local and unitary
authority in England and Wales, from and to the rest
of the UK, by sex and broad age group.
†Table 5b
Numbers to and from each former health authority in
England and Wales, from and to the rest of the UK,
by sex and broad age group.
National Statistics
80
The listing above covers the standard tables produced by the Migration
Statistics Unit. If you have a requirement for internal migration data that
is not met by these standard outputs, please contact us and we will advise
as to whether we can meet your requirement.
Note that the only geographical boundaries we are presently able to
provide data for are: former health authorities and areas that can be
aggregated from them (provided from the NHSCR data alone); and
local and unitary authorities and areas that can be aggregated from them
(provided from the combined PRDS and NHSCR data).
A charge may be made for ad hoc requests depending upon the costs of
production and distribution.
For information or to request migration data, please contact the Migration
Statistics Unit via one of the following routes:
E-mail:
migstatsunit@ons.gov.uk
Post:
Migration Statistics Unit
Office for National Statistics
Room 2300
Segensworth Road
Titchfield
Fareham
Hampshire, PO15 5RR
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Tel:
Autumn 2004
NHSCR (01329) 813872
PRDS (01329) 813897
The Internal Migration section of the National Statistics website can be
found at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nscl.asp?ID=8239.
NOTES AND REFERENCES
1. In England, 28 Strategic Health Authorities (SHAs) replaced the 95
former Health Authorities (former HAs) in April 2002. No similar
level of administration was created in Wales to replace the five
former HAs. Therefore the term health authorities in this report
refers to SHAs within England and former HAs within Wales.
2. The 32 London boroughs do not include the City of London.
3. Chappell R, Vickers L, Evans H (2000) The use of Patient Registers
to estimate migration. Population Trends 101, pp 19–24.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/
PT101bookV3.pdf
4. Scott A, Kilbey T (1999) Can Patient Registers give an improved
measure of internal migration in England and Wales? Population
Trends 96, pp 44–55.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/
PT96book.pdf
5. Office for National Statistics (2003) Internal migration estimates for
local and unitary authorities in England and Wales, 2002. Population
Trends 113, pp 69–82.
81
National Statistics
Po pul ati o n Tre n ds 1 1 7
Table 1
Autumn 2004
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England
and Wales, gross and net flows, by gender, mid-2002 to mid-2003
England, Wales, Government
Office Regions, local authorities
thousands
Area
Persons
Males
Females
In
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
42.5
40.6
1.9
20.5
20.2
0.3
21.9
20.4
1.6
Darlington UA
Hartlepool UA
Middlesbrough UA
Redcar and Cleveland UA
Stockton-on-Tees UA
3.6
2.2
4.7
4.5
6.0
3.5
1.9
6.4
3.9
5.4
0.2
0.3
–1.7
0.6
0.6
1.8
1.1
2.4
2.2
2.9
1.7
0.9
3.3
1.9
2.6
0.1
0.2
–1.0
0.3
0.3
1.8
1.1
2.3
2.3
3.1
1.8
1.0
3.1
2.0
2.8
0.0
0.2
–0.7
0.3
0.3
Durham
Chester–le–Street
Derwentside
Durham
Easington
2.1
3.3
6.5
2.2
2.2
2.7
6.0
2.3
–0.1
0.7
0.5
0.0
1.0
1.6
3.1
1.1
1.1
1.4
2.9
1.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.0
1.0
1.7
3.4
1.1
1.1
1.3
3.1
1.2
–0.1
0.4
0.3
0.0
3.6
1.4
2.7
3.1
1.1
2.2
0.5
0.3
0.5
1.7
0.7
1.3
1.6
0.6
1.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
1.8
0.7
1.4
1.5
0.6
1.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
Northumberland
Alnwick
Berwick–upon–Tweed
Blyth Valley
Castle Morpeth
Tynedale
Wansbeck
1.8
1.3
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.2
1.3
1.2
2.9
2.4
2.2
1.8
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.8
0.7
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.1
0.6
0.6
1.4
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.9
0.7
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.1
0.7
0.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.2
Tyne and Wear
Gateshead
Newcastle upon Tyne
North Tyneside
South Tyneside
Sunderland
6.4
14.2
7.0
3.1
6.1
6.4
15.4
6.6
3.5
7.0
0.0
–1.2
0.4
–0.4
–1.0
3.2
6.9
3.4
1.6
3.0
3.2
7.5
3.2
1.8
3.7
0.0
–0.6
0.2
–0.2
–0.7
3.2
7.3
3.6
1.4
3.1
3.1
7.9
3.4
1.7
3.4
0.1
–0.6
0.2
–0.2
–0.3
109.8
106.4
3.4
53.3
52.0
1.3
56.5
54.4
2.1
Blackburn with Darwen UA
Blackpool UA
Halton UA
Warrington UA
4.8
8.9
3.4
6.4
5.3
8.1
3.5
6.2
–0.5
0.8
–0.2
0.3
2.4
4.5
1.7
3.2
2.7
4.1
1.8
3.1
–0.3
0.5
–0.1
0.1
2.4
4.3
1.7
3.2
2.6
4.0
1.8
3.1
–0.2
0.3
–0.1
0.1
Cheshire
Chester
Congleton
Crewe and Nantwich
Ellesmere Port & Neston
Macclesfield
Vale Royal
7.1
4.8
4.7
2.7
7.0
5.5
6.7
4.2
3.8
2.8
6.6
4.4
0.4
0.6
0.8
–0.1
0.4
1.1
3.4
2.3
2.3
1.3
3.3
2.7
3.1
2.0
1.9
1.4
3.1
2.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
–0.1
0.2
0.5
3.8
2.5
2.3
1.4
3.6
2.8
3.6
2.1
1.9
1.4
3.4
2.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.6
Cumbria
Allerdale
Barrow–in–Furness
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South Lakeland
3.4
1.7
3.6
2.0
2.6
5.3
2.6
1.8
3.2
1.8
1.9
4.5
0.8
–0.1
0.5
0.2
0.7
0.8
1.6
0.9
1.7
1.0
1.3
2.5
1.3
0.9
1.5
0.9
1.0
2.2
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.3
1.8
0.9
1.9
1.0
1.3
2.7
1.3
1.0
1.7
0.9
0.9
2.3
0.5
–0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.5
7.9
7.1
27.7
5.5
6.4
8.2
7.1
30.6
6.7
6.9
–0.3
–0.1
–2.9
–1.2
–0.5
3.9
3.5
13.5
2.7
3.1
4.1
3.5
15.0
3.4
3.3
–0.2
0.0
–1.4
–0.6
–0.2
4.0
3.6
14.1
2.8
3.3
4.1
3.6
15.6
3.3
3.5
–0.1
0.0
–1.5
–0.5
–0.2
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
9.7
9.7
6.6
9.6
7.6
10.8
10.1
6.6
9.5
7.1
–1.1
–0.4
0.1
0.1
0.5
4.9
4.7
3.2
4.6
3.6
5.5
4.8
3.2
4.6
3.5
–0.6
–0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
4.8
5.0
3.4
5.0
4.0
5.3
5.2
3.4
4.8
3.6
–0.5
–0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
Lancashire
Burnley
Chorley
Fylde
Hyndburn
Lancaster
3.3
4.9
4.6
3.2
8.0
3.9
4.1
3.7
3.1
6.8
–0.6
0.8
1.0
0.2
1.2
1.6
2.4
2.3
1.6
3.8
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.6
3.2
–0.3
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.6
1.7
2.5
2.4
1.6
4.2
2.0
2.1
1.9
1.5
3.6
–0.3
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.5
Pendle
Preston
3.3
5.9
3.5
7.0
–0.2
–1.1
1.6
2.8
1.7
3.3
–0.1
–0.5
1.7
3.1
1.7
3.7
–0.1
–0.5
NORTH EAST
Sedgefield
Teesdale
Wear Valley
NORTH WEST
Greater Manchester
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
National Statistics
82
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Table 1
continued
Autumn 2004
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England and
Wales, gross and net flows, by gender, mid-2002 to mid-2003
England, Wales, Government
Office Regions, local authorities
thousands
Area
Persons
In
Males
Females
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
Ribble Valley
Rossendale
South Ribble
3.1
3.2
4.7
2.2
2.9
4.1
0.9
0.3
0.6
1.5
1.5
2.3
1.1
1.5
2.0
0.5
0.1
0.3
1.6
1.6
2.4
1.2
1.4
2.1
0.4
0.2
0.3
West Lancashire
Wyre
4.8
6.3
4.3
4.8
0.5
1.5
2.3
3.1
2.0
2.3
0.3
0.8
2.6
3.2
2.3
2.5
0.3
0.7
5.1
15.8
4.6
8.4
7.3
5.5
19.0
4.4
7.9
6.9
–0.5
–3.3
0.3
0.5
0.4
2.4
7.4
2.3
4.2
3.6
2.8
9.0
2.1
3.8
3.4
–0.3
–1.7
0.2
0.3
0.2
2.6
8.4
2.3
4.2
3.7
2.8
10.0
2.2
4.1
3.5
–0.1
–1.6
0.1
0.1
0.2
99.6
93.8
5.9
47.9
44.9
3.0
51.7
48.8
2.8
16.7
8.0
4.7
5.9
10.2
12.5
9.5
4.6
4.2
9.4
4.2
–1.4
0.2
1.6
0.9
8.2
4.0
2.4
2.9
4.8
6.0
4.6
2.2
2.0
4.3
2.2
–0.6
0.2
0.8
0.5
8.6
4.0
2.4
3.0
5.4
6.5
4.8
2.3
2.2
5.1
2.0
–0.8
0.0
0.8
0.4
3.0
4.2
6.5
3.0
2.6
2.6
3.8
6.4
2.6
2.1
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.6
1.5
2.0
3.0
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.8
2.9
1.1
1.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
1.6
2.2
3.5
1.7
1.3
1.4
2.0
3.5
1.5
1.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
5.1
3.8
4.4
3.6
0.8
0.2
2.5
1.8
2.1
1.7
0.4
0.0
2.6
2.0
2.3
1.9
0.3
0.1
South Yorkshire
Barnsley
Doncaster
Rotherham
Sheffield
6.1
8.0
7.2
18.7
4.8
7.7
6.2
19.9
1.3
0.3
1.0
–1.2
3.0
4.0
3.5
9.2
2.4
3.9
3.1
9.7
0.6
0.1
0.4
–0.5
3.2
4.0
3.6
9.5
2.4
3.8
3.1
10.2
0.7
0.1
0.5
–0.7
West Yorkshire
Bradford
Calderdale
Kirklees
Leeds
Wakefield
13.9
6.2
11.8
27.7
9.8
16.3
5.9
12.2
30.4
8.4
–2.4
0.3
–0.4
–2.7
1.4
6.8
3.1
5.8
13.1
4.7
8.1
3.0
6.0
14.3
4.1
–1.3
0.1
–0.2
–1.2
0.6
7.2
3.1
6.0
14.7
5.1
8.2
2.9
6.2
16.1
4.3
–1.1
0.2
–0.2
–1.4
0.8
EAST MIDLANDS
118.5
97.2
21.3
57.6
47.3
10.4
60.9
49.9
11.0
Derby UA
Leicester UA
Nottingham UA
Rutland UA
9.6
13.5
20.0
2.4
9.9
17.1
21.1
2.2
–0.3
–3.7
–1.2
0.3
4.7
6.4
9.8
1.1
5.0
8.1
10.2
1.0
–0.2
–1.7
–0.4
0.1
4.8
7.1
10.1
1.3
4.9
9.0
10.9
1.1
–0.1
–2.0
–0.7
0.1
Derbyshire
Amber Valley
Bolsover
Chesterfield
Derbyshire Dales
Erewash
5.1
4.1
4.0
3.2
4.4
4.2
3.1
3.2
2.9
4.4
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.3
–0.1
2.5
2.0
1.9
1.5
2.1
2.1
1.5
1.6
1.4
2.2
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.1
–0.1
2.6
2.1
2.1
1.7
2.3
2.1
1.6
1.6
1.5
2.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.1
High Peak
North East Derbyshire
South Derbyshire
3.7
4.4
5.8
3.4
3.8
4.2
0.3
0.5
1.7
1.8
2.1
2.9
1.6
1.8
2.0
0.2
0.3
0.9
1.9
2.2
2.9
1.8
2.0
2.2
0.1
0.2
0.7
Leicestershire
Blaby
Charnwood
Harborough
Hinckley and Bosworth
Melton
4.9
8.5
4.9
4.8
2.4
4.7
8.1
4.1
3.9
2.1
0.2
0.4
0.8
0.9
0.3
2.4
4.4
2.4
2.3
1.1
2.3
4.2
2.0
1.9
1.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.1
2.5
4.1
2.5
2.5
1.3
2.4
4.0
2.0
1.9
1.1
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.6
0.2
4.6
4.4
3.7
4.1
0.8
0.3
2.3
2.1
1.8
2.1
0.5
0.0
2.3
2.3
1.9
2.0
0.4
0.2
Merseyside
Knowsley
Liverpool
St. Helens
Sefton
Wirral
YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER
East Riding of Yorkshire UA
Kingston upon Hull UA, City of UA
North East Lincolnshire UA
North Lincolnshire UA
York UA
North Yorkshire
Craven
Hambleton
Harrogate
Richmondshire
Ryedale
Scarborough
Selby
North West Leicestershire
Oadby and Wigston
83
National Statistics
Po pul ati o n Tre n ds 1 1 7
Table 1
continued
Autumn 2004
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England and
Wales, gross and net flows, by gender, mid-2002 to mid-2003
England, Wales, Government
Office Regions, local authorities
thousands
Area
Persons
Males
Females
In
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
Lincolnshire
Boston
East Lindsey
Lincoln
North Kesteven
South Holland
2.9
8.5
6.1
6.4
4.3
2.2
6.2
5.9
4.7
2.7
0.7
2.3
0.1
1.7
1.6
1.4
4.2
2.9
3.0
2.1
1.1
3.0
2.8
2.2
1.3
0.3
1.1
0.1
0.8
0.7
1.5
4.3
3.2
3.4
2.3
1.1
3.2
3.2
2.5
1.4
0.4
1.1
0.0
0.9
0.9
South Kesteven
West Lindsey
6.3
5.6
5.5
3.9
0.9
1.7
3.0
2.7
2.6
1.9
0.4
0.8
3.3
2.9
2.8
2.0
0.5
0.9
1.9
5.1
5.3
4.4
9.4
2.0
3.9
3.6
3.2
9.7
–0.1
1.2
1.7
1.2
–0.4
0.9
2.5
2.6
2.1
4.4
1.0
1.9
1.8
1.5
4.6
0.0
0.6
0.8
0.6
–0.2
0.9
2.5
2.8
2.2
5.0
1.0
2.0
1.8
1.6
5.1
–0.1
0.6
0.9
0.6
–0.1
6.0
3.6
4.9
3.5
1.1
0.1
2.9
1.8
2.4
1.8
0.5
0.0
3.1
1.8
2.5
1.8
0.6
0.1
5.0
4.5
6.1
5.7
4.2
4.4
3.6
6.3
5.8
3.6
0.6
0.9
–0.2
–0.1
0.6
2.4
2.2
2.9
2.7
2.1
2.2
1.8
3.0
2.8
1.8
0.2
0.5
–0.1
0.0
0.3
2.6
2.3
3.2
3.0
2.1
2.3
1.8
3.3
3.0
1.8
0.3
0.4
–0.1
–0.1
0.3
6.0
6.4
4.5
6.3
1.5
0.2
2.9
3.0
2.2
2.9
0.8
0.1
3.0
3.4
2.3
3.4
0.7
0.1
97.4
102.3
–4.8
46.7
49.7
–3.0
50.7
52.5
–1.8
Herefordshire, County of UA
Stoke–on–Trent UA
Telford and Wrekin UA
7.3
8.7
5.9
6.1
10.0
6.0
1.2
–1.2
–0.1
3.5
4.3
2.9
2.9
5.0
3.0
0.6
–0.7
–0.1
3.8
4.4
3.0
3.2
4.9
3.1
0.6
–0.5
–0.1
Shropshire
Bridgnorth
North Shropshire
Oswestry
Shrewsbury and Atcham
South Shropshire
2.8
3.3
2.0
4.1
2.6
2.3
3.0
1.5
4.2
1.9
0.5
0.3
0.5
–0.1
0.7
1.4
1.5
1.0
2.0
1.3
1.1
1.4
0.7
2.0
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.4
1.5
1.8
1.1
2.0
1.3
1.2
1.6
0.8
2.1
1.0
0.3
0.2
0.3
–0.1
0.3
Staffordshire
Cannock Chase
East Staffordshire
Lichfield
Newcastle–under–Lyme
South Staffordshire
3.8
4.4
5.3
6.3
5.2
3.3
3.8
4.3
5.8
4.6
0.5
0.6
1.0
0.5
0.5
1.8
2.1
2.6
2.9
2.4
1.6
1.9
2.1
2.7
2.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
1.9
2.3
2.8
3.4
2.8
1.6
1.9
2.2
3.1
2.4
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.4
Stafford
Staffordshire Moorlands
Tamworth
5.8
4.0
2.8
4.9
3.6
2.9
0.9
0.4
–0.2
3.0
2.0
1.4
2.6
1.8
1.5
0.4
0.2
–0.1
2.9
2.0
1.4
2.3
1.8
1.5
0.5
0.2
–0.1
Warwickshire
North Warwickshire
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Rugby
Stratford–on–Avon
Warwick
3.0
4.4
3.9
6.7
7.5
3.0
3.7
3.8
5.6
6.3
0.1
0.7
0.1
1.1
1.2
1.4
2.1
1.9
3.2
3.6
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.6
2.8
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.8
1.6
2.3
2.0
3.6
4.0
1.6
2.0
2.0
3.1
3.5
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.5
0.4
31.1
12.0
7.9
10.2
9.0
41.9
13.8
8.8
11.0
8.7
–10.8
–1.9
–0.8
–0.8
0.3
14.8
6.0
3.9
5.0
4.3
20.5
6.9
4.4
5.4
4.3
–5.7
–0.9
–0.5
–0.4
0.1
16.3
6.0
4.1
5.3
4.7
21.4
7.0
4.4
5.7
4.5
–5.1
–1.0
–0.3
–0.4
0.2
Walsall
Wolverhampton
7.4
7.6
8.6
9.6
–1.1
–1.9
3.5
3.8
4.2
4.7
–0.7
–1.0
3.9
3.9
4.3
4.8
–0.4
–0.9
Worcestershire
Bromsgrove
Malvern Hills
Redditch
Worcester
Wychavon
Wyre Forest
5.1
4.6
2.9
4.5
6.1
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.1
4.7
5.3
3.2
1.2
0.8
–0.1
–0.3
0.8
0.6
2.4
2.3
1.5
2.2
3.0
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.5
2.3
2.6
1.6
0.5
0.4
0.0
–0.1
0.4
0.3
2.6
2.4
1.4
2.3
3.1
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.6
2.4
2.7
1.6
0.6
0.4
–0.1
–0.2
0.4
0.3
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
Nottinghamshire
Ashfield
Bassetlaw
Broxtowe
Gedling
Mansfield
Newark and Sherwood
Rushcliffe
WEST MIDLANDS
West Midlands
Birmingham
Coventry
Dudley
Sandwell
Solihull
National Statistics
84
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Table 1
continued
Autumn 2004
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England and
Wales, gross and net flows, by gender, mid-2002 to mid-2003
England, Wales, Government
Office Regions, local authorities
thousands
Area
Persons
Males
Females
In
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
146.8
128.9
17.9
71.0
62.5
8.5
75.8
66.5
9.4
Luton UA
Peterborough UA
Southend–on–Sea UA
Thurrock UA
6.8
7.3
7.1
6.4
10.3
7.1
7.0
5.9
–3.5
0.3
0.1
0.5
3.2
3.8
3.5
3.2
5.0
3.5
3.3
2.8
–1.8
0.3
0.1
0.3
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.3
5.3
3.6
3.6
3.1
–1.8
–0.1
0.0
0.2
Bedfordshire
Bedford
Mid Bedfordshire
South Bedfordshire
6.5
7.8
6.3
6.5
6.6
6.1
0.0
1.1
0.3
3.3
3.7
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.0
0.0
0.6
0.1
3.3
4.0
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.1
–0.1
0.6
0.2
10.5
4.5
5.6
7.7
8.9
11.7
3.4
3.8
7.2
7.6
–1.2
1.1
1.8
0.5
1.3
5.2
2.1
2.7
3.7
4.2
5.7
1.6
1.9
3.5
3.6
–0.6
0.5
0.8
0.2
0.6
5.4
2.3
2.9
4.0
4.7
6.0
1.7
1.9
3.7
4.0
–0.6
0.6
1.0
0.3
0.7
6.5
7.1
3.8
4.1
7.7
7.1
5.8
3.4
3.3
7.4
–0.6
1.4
0.3
0.8
0.2
3.2
3.5
1.8
2.0
3.7
3.5
2.8
1.7
1.6
3.6
–0.3
0.7
0.1
0.4
0.2
3.3
3.7
2.0
2.1
3.9
3.6
2.9
1.8
1.7
3.9
–0.3
0.7
0.2
0.4
0.1
Colchester
Epping Forest
Harlow
Maldon
Rochford
8.5
6.5
3.1
3.2
3.7
7.7
6.6
3.9
2.8
3.5
0.8
–0.1
–0.8
0.4
0.2
4.0
3.1
1.5
1.5
1.8
3.7
3.2
1.9
1.4
1.7
0.3
–0.1
–0.4
0.2
0.1
4.5
3.4
1.6
1.6
1.9
4.1
3.4
2.0
1.4
1.8
0.4
0.0
–0.4
0.2
0.1
Tendring
Uttlesford
6.9
4.5
4.7
4.1
2.2
0.5
3.3
2.2
2.2
1.9
1.1
0.3
3.6
2.3
2.5
2.1
1.2
0.2
4.3
6.6
7.2
5.6
7.0
4.7
6.7
7.5
5.8
5.9
–0.5
–0.1
–0.3
–0.2
1.1
2.1
3.2
3.4
2.6
3.3
2.3
3.3
3.6
2.7
2.9
–0.3
0.0
–0.2
–0.1
0.4
2.2
3.4
3.8
3.0
3.7
2.4
3.5
3.9
3.1
3.0
–0.2
0.0
–0.1
–0.1
0.7
7.3
3.5
5.1
4.9
5.6
7.2
3.9
4.7
5.7
5.8
0.1
–0.5
0.4
–0.8
–0.2
3.6
1.7
2.4
2.3
2.7
3.5
2.0
2.2
2.7
2.9
0.1
–0.2
0.2
–0.4
–0.2
3.7
1.7
2.7
2.5
2.9
3.7
2.0
2.5
2.9
3.0
0.0
–0.2
0.2
–0.4
0.0
6.4
6.4
4.3
6.2
5.0
5.1
5.3
3.3
4.7
3.8
1.4
1.1
1.0
1.5
1.2
3.0
3.1
2.3
3.0
2.4
2.5
2.5
1.7
2.4
1.8
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
3.4
3.3
2.1
3.2
2.6
2.6
2.7
1.6
2.4
2.0
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.6
Norwich
South Norfolk
8.9
6.8
9.1
5.5
–0.1
1.3
4.3
3.3
4.3
2.6
0.0
0.7
4.6
3.5
4.7
2.8
–0.2
0.6
Suffolk
Babergh
Forest Heath
Ipswich
Mid Suffolk
St. Edmundsbury
4.7
2.6
4.9
4.6
4.4
3.9
2.5
5.1
4.0
4.3
0.9
0.1
–0.2
0.6
0.1
2.2
1.2
2.5
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.2
2.5
1.9
2.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
2.5
1.3
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.0
1.3
2.6
2.1
2.2
0.5
0.1
–0.2
0.3
0.1
Suffolk Coastal
Waveney
5.8
4.8
4.5
3.7
1.3
1.1
2.8
2.3
2.2
1.8
0.6
0.5
3.0
2.4
2.4
1.9
0.6
0.6
152.5
262.9
–110.4
74.2
126.5
–52.3
78.3
136.4
–58.0
17.0
0.8
13.1
13.1
15.2
20.1
0.8
19.2
17.0
22.0
–3.1
0.0
–6.1
–3.9
–6.8
7.8
0.4
6.1
5.7
7.1
9.0
0.4
9.0
7.3
10.1
–1.2
0.0
–2.9
–1.7
–3.0
9.1
0.4
7.0
7.5
8.2
11.1
0.4
10.2
9.7
11.9
–1.9
0.0
–3.2
–2.2
–3.8
EAST
Cambridgeshire
Cambridge
East Cambridgeshire
Fenland
Huntingdonshire
South Cambridgeshire
Essex
Basildon
Braintree
Brentwood
Castle Point
Chelmsford
Hertfordshire
Broxbourne
Dacorum
East Hertfordshire
Hertsmere
North Hertfordshire
St Albans
Stevenage
Three Rivers
Watford
Welwyn Hatfield
Norfolk
Breckland
Broadland
Great Yarmouth
King’s Lynn and West Norfolk
North Norfolk
LONDON
Inner London
Camden
City of London
Hackney
Hammersmith and Fulham
Haringey
85
National Statistics
Po pul ati o n Tre n ds 1 1 7
Table 1
continued
Autumn 2004
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England and
Wales, gross and net flows, by gender, mid-2002 to mid-2003
England, Wales, Government
Office Regions, local authorities
thousands
Area
Persons
Males
Females
In
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
Islington
Kensington and Chelsea
Lambeth
Lewisham
Newham
15.4
10.0
21.5
15.1
13.3
18.2
12.0
28.7
20.7
22.5
–2.7
–2.0
–7.3
–5.7
–9.2
7.1
4.6
9.9
7.0
6.5
8.2
5.5
13.3
9.6
11.1
–1.1
–0.9
–3.3
–2.7
–4.6
8.3
5.3
11.5
8.1
6.8
10.0
6.5
15.5
11.1
11.4
–1.6
–1.1
–4.0
–3.0
–4.6
Southwark
Tower Hamlets
Wandsworth
Westminster
16.3
12.6
24.6
18.1
23.2
16.4
28.9
19.3
–6.9
–3.8
–4.3
–1.2
7.6
6.2
10.5
8.4
10.6
7.9
12.9
9.0
–3.0
–1.7
–2.4
–0.6
8.7
6.4
14.1
9.7
12.6
8.5
16.0
10.3
–3.9
–2.1
–1.9
–0.6
9.0
18.0
10.6
13.9
15.1
10.6
21.4
10.6
22.1
15.2
–1.7
–3.5
0.0
–8.2
–0.1
4.3
8.3
5.0
6.7
7.2
5.1
10.4
5.0
10.6
7.3
–0.8
–2.1
0.0
–3.9
–0.2
4.7
9.6
5.7
7.2
8.0
5.5
11.0
5.6
11.5
7.9
–0.9
–1.4
0.1
–4.3
0.1
Croydon
Ealing
Enfield
Greenwich
Harrow
17.0
17.4
14.7
14.2
12.2
20.4
25.2
17.5
16.0
14.0
–3.4
–7.8
–2.8
–1.9
–1.7
8.1
8.5
6.9
6.7
6.0
9.9
12.1
8.2
7.5
6.9
–1.7
–3.7
–1.3
–0.8
–0.8
8.9
8.9
7.8
7.5
6.2
10.5
13.1
9.3
8.5
7.1
–1.7
–4.1
–1.5
–1.0
–0.9
Havering
Hillingdon
Hounslow
Kingston upon Thames
Merton
9.0
13.7
12.6
10.4
12.6
8.8
15.8
17.6
11.6
15.1
0.2
–2.1
–5.1
–1.1
–2.6
4.3
6.8
5.9
4.9
5.9
4.3
7.7
8.4
5.5
7.1
0.0
–1.0
–2.5
–0.6
–1.2
4.7
6.9
6.6
5.6
6.7
4.5
8.0
9.2
6.1
8.1
0.2
–1.1
–2.6
–0.5
–1.4
Redbridge
Richmond upon Thames
Sutton
Waltham Forest
15.8
12.6
9.7
11.8
15.8
13.3
10.1
16.6
0.0
–0.6
–0.3
–4.8
7.6
5.9
4.7
5.7
7.5
6.1
4.9
8.0
0.0
–0.3
–0.2
–2.3
8.3
6.8
5.1
6.1
8.3
7.1
5.2
8.6
0.0
–0.4
–0.1
–2.5
225.6
216.0
9.6
109.0
104.2
4.8
116.6
111.8
4.8
Bracknell Forest UA
Brighton and Hove UA
Isle of Wight UA
Medway UA
Milton Keynes UA
6.5
16.0
5.6
10.2
10.5
7.1
16.3
4.0
10.7
10.2
–0.6
–0.4
1.6
–0.5
0.3
3.2
7.7
2.7
4.9
5.2
3.5
7.8
1.9
5.3
5.1
–0.3
–0.1
0.8
–0.3
0.2
3.3
8.3
2.9
5.3
5.2
3.5
8.5
2.1
5.4
5.1
–0.3
–0.2
0.8
–0.2
0.1
Portsmouth UA
Reading UA
Slough UA
Southampton UA
West Berkshire UA
9.5
10.2
5.3
13.0
8.3
10.4
12.5
7.8
14.4
8.2
–0.9
–2.3
–2.5
–1.4
0.0
4.8
5.1
2.6
6.7
4.1
5.2
6.0
3.8
7.3
4.0
–0.4
–0.9
–1.2
–0.6
0.1
4.7
5.1
2.7
6.3
4.2
5.3
6.5
4.1
7.2
4.2
–0.6
–1.4
–1.3
–0.8
0.0
Windsor and Maidenhead UA
Wokingham UA
8.3
10.0
8.8
10.5
–0.5
–0.5
4.2
4.8
4.4
5.1
–0.3
–0.4
4.2
5.3
4.4
5.4
–0.3
–0.1
Buckinghamshire
Aylesbury Vale
Chiltern
South Bucks
Wycombe
8.7
5.1
4.2
8.1
8.5
5.2
4.2
9.4
0.2
–0.1
0.0
–1.3
4.3
2.4
2.0
3.8
4.1
2.5
2.0
4.5
0.1
–0.1
0.0
–0.7
4.5
2.7
2.2
4.3
4.4
2.7
2.2
4.9
0.1
0.0
0.0
–0.6
East Sussex
Eastbourne
Hastings
Lewes
Rother
Wealden
6.2
4.7
5.4
5.8
8.6
5.1
4.3
4.5
4.4
7.4
1.2
0.4
0.9
1.4
1.3
3.0
2.3
2.6
2.8
4.2
2.4
2.1
2.2
2.2
3.5
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.7
3.2
2.4
2.8
3.0
4.5
2.7
2.2
2.4
2.2
3.9
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.8
0.6
Hampshire
Basingstoke and Deane
East Hampshire
Eastleigh
Fareham
Gosport
6.8
6.5
6.0
5.8
4.1
7.0
6.6
6.1
5.4
3.5
–0.1
–0.1
0.0
0.5
0.6
3.3
3.0
2.9
2.8
1.9
3.4
3.1
3.0
2.6
1.6
–0.1
–0.1
–0.1
0.2
0.3
3.5
3.4
3.1
3.0
2.2
3.5
3.4
3.1
2.8
1.9
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.3
5.6
5.6
8.5
5.8
6.4
8.1
5.5
5.6
7.1
6.6
5.9
7.4
0.1
0.0
1.4
–0.8
0.6
0.7
2.7
2.7
4.1
2.6
3.1
3.8
2.7
2.8
3.4
3.1
2.9
3.4
0.0
–0.1
0.8
–0.5
0.2
0.4
2.9
2.9
4.3
3.2
3.3
4.3
2.9
2.8
3.7
3.6
3.0
4.0
0.1
0.1
0.7
–0.4
0.3
0.3
Outer London
Barking and Dagenham
Barnet
Bexley
Brent
Bromley
SOUTH EAST
Hart
Havant
New Forest
Rushmoor
Test Valley
Winchester
National Statistics
86
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Table 1
continued
Autumn 2004
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England and
Wales, gross and net flows, by gender, mid-2002 to mid-2003
England, Wales, Government
Office Regions, local authorities
thousands
Area
Persons
Males
In
Out
Net
In
Out
Kent
Ashford
Canterbury
Dartford
Dover
Gravesham
5.9
9.9
4.9
4.6
3.7
4.8
8.1
4.9
3.9
3.9
1.0
1.8
0.0
0.7
–0.2
2.8
4.8
2.4
2.3
1.8
2.4
3.7
2.4
2.0
1.9
Maidstone
Sevenoaks
Shepway
Swale
Thanet
7.7
6.4
5.1
6.1
5.4
7.1
6.5
4.1
4.9
4.8
0.6
–0.1
0.9
1.3
0.6
3.8
3.1
2.5
3.0
2.7
Tonbridge and Malling
Tunbridge Wells
6.9
5.9
6.3
6.1
0.6
–0.2
Oxfordshire
Cherwell
Oxford
South Oxfordshire
Vale of White Horse
West Oxfordshire
7.6
13.2
7.8
6.8
5.5
7.3
14.1
8.2
6.8
4.5
Surrey
Elmbridge
Epsom and Ewell
Guildford
Mole Valley
Reigate and Banstead
7.4
4.2
9.2
5.1
7.5
Females
In
Out
0.5
1.1
0.0
0.3
–0.1
3.0
5.1
2.5
2.3
1.9
2.5
4.4
2.5
1.9
2.0
0.6
0.7
0.0
0.4
–0.1
3.5
3.2
2.0
2.4
2.5
0.3
–0.1
0.4
0.6
0.3
3.9
3.3
2.6
3.1
2.7
3.6
3.3
2.1
2.5
2.4
0.3
0.0
0.5
0.7
0.3
3.4
2.7
3.1
2.9
0.3
–0.1
3.5
3.1
3.1
3.2
0.3
–0.1
0.3
–0.9
–0.4
–0.1
0.9
3.6
6.6
3.8
3.2
2.5
3.5
6.8
4.0
3.3
2.1
0.1
–0.2
–0.2
–0.1
0.4
3.9
6.6
4.0
3.5
2.9
3.8
7.3
4.2
3.5
2.4
0.2
–0.7
–0.2
0.0
0.5
7.5
4.4
9.7
4.5
7.5
–0.1
–0.2
–0.5
0.6
0.0
3.5
2.0
4.4
2.5
3.7
3.6
2.1
4.6
2.2
3.6
0.0
–0.1
–0.3
0.3
0.0
3.9
2.2
4.9
2.6
3.9
3.9
2.3
5.1
2.3
3.8
0.0
–0.1
–0.2
0.3
0.0
5.6
4.7
5.2
5.3
8.1
5.1
5.8
5.2
5.2
5.1
7.8
5.7
–0.2
–0.5
0.0
0.3
0.4
–0.6
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.5
3.9
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.4
3.8
2.7
–0.1
–0.3
–0.1
0.1
0.1
–0.3
3.0
2.5
2.8
2.9
4.2
2.6
3.1
2.7
2.7
2.7
3.9
3.0
–0.1
–0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
–0.3
West Sussex
Adur
Arun
Chichester
Crawley
Horsham
3.2
8.1
6.8
4.3
7.1
3.1
5.8
5.9
5.4
6.0
0.0
2.3
1.0
–1.1
1.2
1.6
3.9
3.2
2.2
3.5
1.6
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.9
0.0
1.1
0.5
–0.6
0.6
1.6
4.2
3.6
2.2
3.6
1.6
3.0
3.1
2.7
3.1
0.0
1.2
0.5
–0.5
0.6
Mid Sussex
Worthing
7.1
5.2
6.6
4.5
0.5
0.7
3.4
2.5
3.3
2.1
0.2
0.4
3.7
2.7
3.4
2.3
0.3
0.3
142.5
109.7
32.8
69.0
52.3
16.6
73.6
57.4
16.2
Bath and North East Somerset UA
Bournemouth UA
Bristol, City of UA
North Somerset UA
Plymouth UA
10.2
11.8
21.6
9.8
10.4
9.6
11.4
23.5
7.2
10.6
0.5
0.4
–1.9
2.6
–0.2
4.8
6.1
10.5
4.8
5.2
4.5
5.7
11.4
3.5
5.2
0.3
0.4
–0.9
1.3
0.0
5.3
5.7
11.1
4.9
5.3
5.1
5.7
12.1
3.6
5.4
0.2
0.0
–1.0
1.3
–0.1
Poole UA
South Gloucestershire UA
Swindon UA
Torbay UA
8.1
11.0
6.0
7.8
7.9
10.9
6.7
5.9
0.1
0.1
–0.7
1.9
4.0
5.3
3.0
3.9
3.9
5.3
3.3
2.9
0.1
0.0
–0.3
1.0
4.1
5.7
3.0
3.9
4.1
5.5
3.4
3.0
0.0
0.1
–0.4
0.9
4.6
5.7
5.0
4.9
3.1
3.4
4.7
3.7
3.6
2.6
1.2
0.9
1.4
1.3
0.5
2.2
2.7
2.4
2.4
1.5
1.6
2.3
1.8
1.7
1.2
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.2
2.4
2.9
2.6
2.5
1.6
1.8
2.4
1.9
1.9
1.3
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.3
Restormel
Isles of Scilly
5.7
0.2
3.9
0.3
1.8
0.0
2.8
0.1
1.9
0.1
0.9
0.0
2.9
0.1
2.0
0.2
0.9
–0.1
Devon
East Devon
Exeter
Mid Devon
North Devon
South Hams
7.4
8.2
4.3
5.0
5.1
5.8
7.6
3.5
3.7
4.9
1.6
0.7
0.8
1.3
0.2
3.5
4.0
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.7
3.5
1.7
1.8
2.4
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.1
3.9
4.2
2.2
2.6
2.7
3.1
4.0
1.8
2.0
2.5
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.1
Runnymede
Spelthorne
Surrey Heath
Tandridge
Waverley
Woking
SOUTH WEST
Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly
Caradon
Carrick
Kerrier
North Cornwall
Penwith
Net
87
National Statistics
Net
Po pul ati o n Tre n ds 1 1 7
Table 1
continued
Autumn 2004
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and local authorities in England and
Wales, gross and net flows, by gender, mid-2002 to mid-2003
England, Wales, Government
Office Regions, local authorities
thousands
Area
Persons
In
Males
Females
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
7.0
4.2
3.2
5.6
2.8
2.6
1.5
1.4
0.6
3.4
2.1
1.5
2.7
1.4
1.3
0.6
0.7
0.3
3.7
2.1
1.7
2.8
1.4
1.3
0.8
0.7
0.4
Dorset
Christchurch
East Dorset
North Dorset
Purbeck
West Dorset
Weymouth and Portland
3.2
5.8
4.8
2.5
6.4
3.3
2.6
4.7
3.5
2.5
4.5
2.8
0.6
1.1
1.3
0.0
1.9
0.5
1.5
2.8
2.3
1.2
3.0
1.6
1.2
2.2
1.6
1.2
2.2
1.3
0.3
0.6
0.7
0.0
0.8
0.3
1.6
3.0
2.4
1.3
3.4
1.6
1.3
2.5
1.9
1.3
2.3
1.4
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.0
1.1
0.2
Gloucestershire
Cheltenham
Cotswold
Forest of Dean
Gloucester
Stroud
Tewkesbury
6.4
5.2
4.2
5.0
5.1
4.9
6.8
4.4
3.4
4.9
4.1
4.3
–0.4
0.8
0.8
0.1
0.9
0.5
3.0
2.4
2.0
2.5
2.4
2.3
3.2
2.2
1.5
2.4
2.0
2.0
–0.2
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.3
3.4
2.7
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.6
3.6
2.3
1.9
2.5
2.1
2.3
–0.2
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.2
Somerset
Mendip
Sedgemoor
South Somerset
Taunton Deane
West Somerset
5.5
5.4
7.4
5.4
2.4
4.9
4.4
6.0
4.4
2.0
0.6
0.9
1.3
0.9
0.5
2.7
2.7
3.6
2.6
1.2
2.4
2.2
2.9
2.2
0.9
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.4
0.3
2.8
2.7
3.8
2.8
1.2
2.5
2.2
3.1
2.3
1.0
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.2
Wiltshire
Kennet
North Wiltshire
Salisbury
West Wiltshire
4.6
6.9
5.7
5.8
4.2
6.4
5.4
4.6
0.4
0.5
0.4
1.2
2.2
3.2
2.6
2.8
1.9
3.1
2.5
2.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.6
2.4
3.7
3.1
3.1
2.3
3.3
2.9
2.4
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.7
63.8
48.6
15.2
30.8
23.2
7.5
33.0
25.4
7.7
1.5
3.9
4.3
15.2
6.8
1.5
3.0
4.0
15.9
4.6
0.0
0.9
0.3
–0.7
2.2
0.8
1.9
2.1
7.1
3.3
0.8
1.5
1.9
7.3
2.2
0.0
0.4
0.2
–0.2
1.1
0.7
2.1
2.2
8.1
3.5
0.7
1.5
2.1
8.7
2.5
0.0
0.5
0.1
–0.6
1.1
Ceredigion
Conwy
Denbighshire
Flintshire
Gwynedd
5.5
5.2
5.1
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.0
3.9
4.6
4.6
0.6
1.1
1.1
0.2
0.3
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
1.9
1.9
2.2
2.1
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.1
0.3
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.1
2.0
2.4
2.6
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.1
0.0
Isle of Anglesey
Merthyr Tydfil
Monmouthshire
Neath Port Talbot
Newport
2.5
1.2
4.7
4.6
4.9
2.0
1.3
3.7
2.9
4.5
0.5
–0.1
0.9
1.7
0.5
1.2
0.6
2.3
2.2
2.4
0.9
0.7
1.8
1.5
2.2
0.3
–0.1
0.4
0.8
0.3
1.3
0.6
2.4
2.4
2.5
1.1
0.6
1.9
1.5
2.3
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.9
0.2
Pembrokeshire
Powys
Rhondda, Cynon,Taff
Swansea
Torfaen
4.4
5.9
5.8
7.7
2.3
3.5
4.3
5.0
7.2
2.1
1.0
1.6
0.8
0.6
0.2
2.1
2.9
2.8
3.7
1.1
1.7
2.1
2.5
3.4
1.0
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.1
2.3
3.0
2.9
4.0
1.2
1.8
2.2
2.5
3.7
1.1
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.1
The Vale of Glamorgan
Wrexham
5.4
3.9
4.3
3.3
1.1
0.6
2.6
1.9
2.1
1.6
0.5
0.2
2.8
2.0
2.2
1.7
0.6
0.3
Teignbridge
Torridge
West Devon
WALES
Blaenau Gwent
Bridgend
Caerphilly
Cardiff
Carmarthenshire
* Based on patient register data and patient re–registration recorded in the NHSCR.
Note: Bold figures exclude moves between local/unitary authorities within each Government Office Region.
National Statistics
88
Po p u l a t i o n Tre n d s 1 1 7
Table 2
Autumn 2004
Internal migration* within the United Kingdom: Government Office Regions and Health Authorities in England
and Former Health Authorities in Wales, gross and net flows, by gender, mid-2002 to mid-2003
Government Office Regions
and health authorities
thousands
Area
Persons
Males
Females
In
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
In
Out
Net
42.5
40.6
1.9
20.5
20.2
0.3
21.9
20.4
1.6
26.0
27.4
23.8
27.7
2.2
–0.3
12.6
13.3
11.8
13.8
0.8
–0.5
13.4
14.1
12.0
13.9
1.3
0.2
109.8
106.4
3.4
53.3
52.0
1.3
56.5
54.4
2.1
50.4
51.6
54.2
49.6
43.3
59.6
0.8
8.3
–5.4
24.2
25.2
26.5
23.9
21.1
29.3
0.3
4.1
–2.9
26.2
26.4
27.7
25.7
22.2
30.3
0.5
4.2
–2.6
99.6
93.8
5.9
47.9
44.9
3.0
51.7
48.8
2.8
North and East Yorkshire and Northern Lincolnshire 51.2
South Yorkshire
31.2
West Yorkshire
48.1
42.9
29.9
51.9
8.3
1.3
–3.7
24.7
15.3
22.9
20.3
14.7
25.0
4.4
0.7
–2.1
26.4
15.9
25.2
22.6
15.2
26.9
3.9
0.7
–1.7
118.5
97.2
21.3
57.6
47.3
10.4
60.9
49.9
11.0
52.6
77.6
47.6
61.6
5.1
16.0
25.6
37.6
23.2
29.8
2.4
7.8
27.0
40.0
24.3
31.8
2.7
8.2
97.4
102.3
–4.8
46.7
49.7
–3.0
50.7
52.5
–1.8
43.4
58.6
–15.2
20.7
28.9
–8.2
22.7
29.7
–7.0
50.1
42.7
44.6
37.8
5.5
4.9
24.3
20.6
21.3
18.5
3.0
2.1
25.7
22.1
23.3
19.3
2.5
2.8
146.8
128.9
17.9
71.0
62.5
8.5
75.8
66.5
9.4
56.7
50.6
69.2
59.8
44.6
54.1
–3.1
6.0
15.0
27.2
24.5
33.7
29.0
21.5
26.4
–1.8
3.0
7.4
29.5
26.1
35.4
30.8
23.1
27.8
–1.3
3.0
7.6
152.5
262.9
–110.4
74.2
126.5
–52.3
78.3
136.4
–58.0
57.4
51.9
70.7
60.4
66.4
76.3
77.2
102.7
82.2
78.7
–18.9
–25.4
–32.0
–21.8
–12.4
26.8
25.0
33.6
28.4
30.3
35.5
37.3
48.6
38.5
36.7
–8.6
–12.3
–15.0
–10.1
–6.4
30.5
26.9
37.1
32.0
36.1
40.8
40.0
54.1
43.7
42.1
–10.3
–13.1
–17.0
–11.7
–6.0
225.6
216.0
9.6
109.0
104.2
4.8
116.6
111.8
4.8
61.6
50.0
96.5
83.5
59.5
43.5
88.0
91.0
2.1
6.6
8.5
–7.5
30.0
24.3
46.3
40.7
28.9
21.2
42.2
44.1
1.1
3.1
4.1
–3.5
31.7
25.8
50.1
42.8
30.6
22.3
45.7
46.8
1.0
3.5
4.4
–4.1
142.5
109.7
32.8
69.0
52.3
16.6
73.6
57.4
16.2
70.7
47.5
59.3
64.9
37.3
42.4
5.8
10.2
16.9
33.7
23.4
28.6
30.9
18.1
20.2
2.8
5.4
8.5
37.0
24.0
30.6
34.0
19.2
22.2
3.0
4.8
8.4
63.8
48.6
15.2
30.8
23.2
7.5
33.0
25.4
7.7
19.4
19.6
13.5
21.1
12.8
15.5
14.3
10.3
20.1
10.9
3.9
5.3
3.1
1.0
1.8
9.4
9.5
6.5
9.9
6.2
7.4
6.8
5.1
9.4
5.3
2.0
2.7
1.4
0.5
0.9
10.0
10.1
7.0
11.2
6.6
8.1
7.5
5.3
10.7
5.7
1.9
2.6
1.7
0.5
0.9
NORTH EAST
County Durham and Tees Valley
Northumberland, Tyne & Wear
NORTH WEST
Cheshire & Merseyside
Cumbria and Lancashire
Greater Manchester
YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER
EAST MIDLANDS
Leicestershire, Northamptonshire and Rutland
Trent
WEST MIDLANDS
Birmingham and the Black Country
Coventry, Warwickshire, Herefordshire and
Worcestershire
Shropshire and Staffordshire
EAST
Bedfordshire and Hertfordshire
Essex
Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire
LONDON
North Central London
North East London
North West London
South East London
South West London
SOUTH EAST
Hampshire and Isle of Wight
Kent and Medway
Surrey and Sussex
Thames Valley
SOUTH WEST
Avon, Gloucestershire and Wiltshire
Dorset and Somerset
South West Peninsula
WALES
North Wales
Dyfed Powys
Morgannwg
Bro Taf
Gwent
* Based on patient register data and patient re–registration recorded in the NHSCR.
Note: Bold figures exclude moves between health authorities within each Government Office Region.
89
National Statistics
Other population and health articles, publications and data
Health Statistics Quarterly 24
Population Trends 118
Publication 11 November 2004
Publication 16 December 2004
Planned
articles:
•
•
•
•
Reports:
Annual
update
•
•
•
•
•
An analysis of legally uncertified deaths, 1979–2002
Waiting time to date and total time waited: are the
sources compatible?
Trends in infant mortality and birthweight by social
class, marital status and mother’s age, England and
Wales, 1976–2000
Trends in live births by birthweight, father’s social
class and age of mother, England and Wales,
1976–2000
Mortality in children under 9
Infant and perinatal mortality by social and biological
factors, 2003
Life expectancy by HA and LA update
Conceptions in England and Wales, 2002
2002 Mortality Statistics: General (England
and Wales)
Forthcoming Annual Reference Volumes
Title
Cancer statistics registrations 2001, MB1 no. 32*
Congenital anomaly statistics 2003, MB3 no. 18*
Birth statistics 2003, FM1 no. 32*
Mortality statistics: cause 2003, DH2 no. 30*
Planned publication
November 2004
November 2004
December 2004
December 2004
* Available through the National Statistics website only; http://www.statistics.gov.uk
Planned
articles:
•
•
•
•
Reports:
Annual
updates
Living arrangements in contemporary Britain
(part 1) – Living apart-together: estimated
prevalence and numbers
Demographic trends in Europe
Socio-economic analyses of fertility
Ethnic projections (results) – marital status
estimates rebasing/assessment of accuracy
• Mid-2003 population estimates, England and Wales
and divorces during 2002 and adoptions
• inMarriages
2003: England and Wales
• Births, 2003