About the Office for National Statistics The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the Government Agency responsible for compiling, analysing and disseminating many of the United Kingdom’s economic, social and demographic statistics, including the retail prices index, trade figures and labour market data, as well as the periodic census of the population and health statistics.The Director of ONS is also the National Statistician and the Registrar General for England and Wales, and the agency administors the statutory registration of births, marriages and deaths there. About Health Statistics Quarterly and Population Trends Health Statistics Quarterly and Population Trends are journals of the Office for National Statistics. Each is published four times a year in February, May, August and November and March, June, September and December, respectively. In addition to bringing together articles on a wide range of population and health topics, Health Statistics Quarterly and Population Trends contain regular series of tables on a wide range of subjects for which ONS is responsible, including the most recently available statistics. Subscription Annual subscription, including postage, is £75; single issues are £20. Online Health Statistics Quarterly and Population Trends can be viewed or downloaded as Adobe Acrobat PDF files from the National Statistics website www.statistics.gov.uk/products/p6725.asp (Health Statistics Quarterly) or www.statistics.gov.uk/products/p6303.asp (Population Trends). A National Statistics publication Official statistics bearing the National Statistics logo are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference. Contact points at ONS Editorial board People with enquiries about the statistics published regularly in Health Statistics Quarterly and Population Trends can contact the following enquiry points. Peter Goldblatt (editor) David Pearce (editor) Angela Dale Paul Hyatt Azeem Majeed Jil Matheson Ian R Scott Judith Walton Topic enquiries Abortions: 01329 813618 Births: 01329 813758 Conceptions: 020 7533 5113 Expectation of life: 020 7211 2622 (Government Actuary’s Department) Marriages and divorces: 01329 813379 Migration: 01329 813889/813897 Mortality: 01329 813758 Population estimates: 01329 813318 Population projections: National – 020 7211 2622 (Government Actuary’s Department) Subnational – 01329 813474/813865 Contributions Articles: 5,000 words max. General enquiries W in te r n um ut A Su m m er Issue Title Sp ri ng Dates for submissions Health Statistics Quarterly by 11 Sept by 11 Dec by 22 Mar by 21 June Population Trends by 23 Oct by 2 Feb Please send to: Clare Parrish, executive secretary Health Statistics Quarterly/Population Trends Office for National Statistics B7/06 1 Drummond Gate London SW1V 2QQ Tel: 020 7533 5264 Fax: 020 7533 5103 E-mail: clare.parrish@ons.gov.uk by 4 May by 26 July National Statistics Customer Enquiry Centre Room D115 Government Buildings Cardiff Road Newport NP10 8XG Tel: 0845 601 3034 E-mail: info@statistics.gov.uk Website: www.statistics.gov.uk © Crown copyright 2003. Published with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office (HMSO). 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Spring 2003 NO 111 Population Trends In this issue Page In Brief 2 Demographic indicators 6 Interim 2001-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries An analysis of the latest national population projections figures based upon the first results of the 2001 Census Chris Shaw Higher qualifications, first-birth timing and further childbearing in England and Wales An examination of the relationship between the attainment of higher educational qualifications and later entry to motherhood and how these are associated with the pace of subsequent childbearing Michael S Rendall and Steve Smallwood How important are inter-generational cycles of teenage motherhood in England and Wales? A comparison with France An analysis of the hypotheses that the UK’s higher teenage fertility rate compared to the rest of Western Europe is primarily caused by the repetition of teenage motherhood from mother to daughter Michael S Rendall Tables List of tables Tables 1.1 – 9.3 Notes to tables 7 18 27 38 39 66 Report: Marriages in England and Wales, 2001 67 Recent Publications 71 London: TSO Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 in brief 2001 Census Results Census results across the United Kingdom are now available at local government level for the various topics covered. England and Wales The first detailed Census results for England and Wales – Key statistics for local authorities in England and Wales – were released on 13 February. These results provided the headline figures for each topic covered in the Census – including ethnicity and religion; occupation and industry of employment; household composition; and health and provision of unpaid care. Results are provided for a range of administrative geographies, from Local Authority District upwards. The results are available in printed reports, Census 2001: Key statistics for local authorities in England and Wales and Census 2001: Key statistics for local authorities in Wales (which is available in English and Welsh language) from TSO bookshops. The results can also be obtained from the Neighbourhood Statistics Service on the National Statistics website http:// www.statistics.gov.uk or on a CD from Census Customer Services (email: census.customerservices@ons.gov.uk or telephone: 01329 813800). Supporting information to the results, including information on the Census methodology and response rates; commentaries on the results; and profiles of each Local Authority, is available on the National Statistics website. More detailed results, and results for other geographies in England and Wales, will be published over the coming months. National Statistics 2 Reports There will be further reports to Parliament providing results for England and Wales for the new health geographies, Parliamentary Constituencies, and urban areas, with additional bi-lingual reports for Wales. These will present results in a succinct printed form, with more detailed results included, where appropriate, on CD. Electronic versions will also be placed on the National Statistics website, accessible to all without charge. Census Access Project The remaining results, which will be the bulk of output, will be in the form of local statistics issued under the arrangements of the Census Access project as an integrated set of statistics, geography and metadata free at the point of use. Census local statistics are scheduled to become accessible to all users through Neighbourhood Statistics on the National Statistics website in 2003. Multi-Source Topic Reports Following the publication of the Census standard area statistics, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will be producing a series of multi-source topic reports (MSTRs) for key areas of analysis. These will pull together information from the 2001 Census and other sources to provide a more comprehensive statistical picture of a topic area than would be provided by solely Census-based products. The choice of sources used will be informed by the ONS Joined up Data Project that will be recommending the most appropriate source of information for a given purpose. An overview summary for each topic, that will include key headline data and commentary, will be published on the National Statistics website in Summer 2003. Longer reports will be published later for each topic, in the style of the ‘Social Focus’ series. These will provide more detailed analysis and commentary. The People, Places and Migration MSTR will include detailed analyses of the age structure of the population, where people live, major cities and towns, special population types, the characteristics of migrants and the characteristics of the foreign born and immigrant populations. Other MSTRs being planned include topics such as inequalities, ethnicity and identity, families, and older people. More information on the topics covered in the MSTR series can be found on the National Statistics website at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/census2001/ op9.asp Scotland The first detailed results from the 2001 Census in Scotland were released on 13 February by the Registrar General for Scotland. Results were contained in two booklets, The Registrar General’s 2001 Census Report to the Scottish Parliament and Key Statistics for Council areas and Health Board areas Scotland. These reports cover the majority of Census questions and topics (including housing, health, education qualifications, transport, industry and occupation, religion, ethnic group and Gaelic). The Registrar General’s report provides comparisons, where appropriate, with 1991 results with the key points drawn out in a commentary. The Key Statistics Report provides similar, but more detailed, statistics in a format which invites comparisons between council areas and health board areas. The reports are available from the Census pages of the GROS website http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk or by contacting GROS Customer Services (email: customer@gro-scotland.gov.uk or telephone: 0131 314 4254). Population Trends 111 More detailed results for areas smaller than Council area were available in March 2003. SCROL (Scotland’s Census Results OnLine) will provide free online access to the results and this service will be available from March. In addition, the results will also be delivered in a number of printed publications and CD ROMs, details of which are outlined in the GROS publication Scotland’s Census – A guide to the results and how to obtain them are available on the Census pages of the GROS website. Northern Ireland The first results from the 2001 Census in Northern Ireland were released on 30 September 2002 in the Northern Ireland Census 2001 Population Report and Mid-Year Estimates. This was followed on 19 December with the Northern Ireland Census 2001 Key Statistics providing summary statistics for each census topic. The Key Statistics were published down to Local Government level with Ward statistics available on the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) website: http://www.nisra.gov.uk/census/ Census2001Output/KeyStatistics keystatrep.html Population estimates following the 2001 Census Scotland published final mid-year estimates for 1982–2000, revised in the light of the Census, on 27 February 2003. These revisions included estimates at the council level and provided breakdowns by sex and single year age groups. Revisions for health board areas will be produced in Spring 2003. England and Wales/United Kingdom Mid-2001 population estimates for England and Wales, based on the 2001 Census, were published on 10 October 2002. Final mid-1991 estimates for England and Wales, revised in the light of the Census, were published on 13 February 2003. Similarly revised figures for 1992–2000 and for 1982–1990 were published on 27 February and 27 March respectively. All three releases included estimates at the subnational level and provided breakdowns by sex and age groups. ONS also published the corresponding final estimates for the United Kingdom. Marital status estimates for Scotland for 2001 and final revised estimates for 1982–2000, consistent with the revised mid-year estimates published on 27 February 2003, will be published in Summer 2003. It is planned that the marital status estimates for England and Wales for 2001 and final revised estimates for years prior to 2001 will be published in Summer 2003. This will complete the rebasing of the mid-year population estimates for England and Wales following the 2001 Census. Standard Tables providing cross tabulations of the main variables were released in March 2003 with further detailed analysis to follow. The main dissemination vehicles are the NISRA website and CD products. Scotland Mid-year population estimates, based on the 2001 Census were published on 30 September 2002. The General Register Office for Profile of the United Kingdom population by 5-year age groups, 2001 Census United Kingdom 90 and over Men Women 85–89 80–84 75–79 70–74 65–69 60–64 55–59 50–54 45–49 40–44 35–39 30–34 UK Average 25–29 20–24 15–19 10–14 5–9 0–4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 Spring 2003 4 6 8 10 Percentage Source: 2001 Census. For more information see http://www.statistics.gov.uk/census 2001/pyramids/pages/UK.asp Northern Ireland Mid-year population estimates for 2001, based on the 2001 Census, were published on 30 September 2002. The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency published final rebased population estimates for 1992 to 2000 on 10 October. This completed the rebasing of the population estimates for Northern Ireland following the 2001 Census. Revision of life expectancy estimates following the 2001 Census National figures The figures for life expectancy at birth and at selected ages in 2000 (based on the three-year period 1999–2001) in reference tables 2.2 and 5.1 are taken from the interim life tables for 1999–2001 published by the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) on 27 February 2003. These use the mid-2001, and revised mid-2000 and mid-1999, population denominators described above. The life expectancy figures for earlier years in tables 2.2 and 2.5 were calculated using population estimates based on the 1981 and 1991 Censuses. GAD have now recalculated the figures from 1980–1982 to 1998–2000 following publication of the final revised population estimates based on the 2001 Census. The figures are available within the revised interim life tables for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries, which were published on 15 April and can be found on GAD’s website http://www.gad.gov.uk. These revised figures will be included in tables 2.2 and 5.1 in Population Trends 112 (Summer 2003 issue). Local figures Following the release of re-based population estimates for local authorities from 1991 to 2000, previously published life expectancy at birth results for these areas have been revised. Figures are available for three-year periods from 1991–1993 to 1999–2001. All results are based on three-year aggregates of mortality data and mid-year population estimates. They are available for Government Office Regions and local authorities on the National Statistics website at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/ statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=8841 3 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 These figures replace interim results published by ONS on the National Statistics website in November 2002.The interim figures from 1991–1993 to 1998–2000 were based on threeyear aggregates of mortality data and mid-year population estimates based on the 1991 Census. Two sets of interim life expectancy figures for 1999–2001 were also published for comparative purposes, the first using mid-year population estimates for 2000 and the second using mid-year estimates for 2001, based on the 2001 Census. A further report on life expectancy at birth in England and Wales is planned for Health Statistics Quarterly later in 2003. This will present trends from 1991 onwards for the areas covered by Strategic Health Authorities and Directorates of Health and Social Care. Contraception and sexual health, 2001 In 2001/02 the most common forms of contraception used by women aged under 50 were the contraceptive pill (used by 28 per cent of women), the male condom (used by 21 per cent of women), and sterilisation (10 per cent of women had been sterilised and 12 per cent had a partner who had had a vasectomy), according to a recent report1 published by the ONS. A quarter (25 per cent) of women were not using any method of contraception, and half of these women (13 per cent of all women aged 16–49) were not currently in a heterosexual relationship. The report presents the results of a survey for the Department of Health on contraception and sexual health carried out in 2001/02 as part of the National Statistics Omnibus Survey. Reports were also published with the results of four earlier surveys conducted in 1997/98, 1998/99, 1999/2000 and 2000/01. It includes an examination of any significant changes in the data between 2000/01 and 2001/02. Contraceptive use among women aged under 50 The use of the contraceptive pill and male condom were associated with age: ● Women aged under 30 were more likely to use the contraceptive pill than older women. ● The use of both the contraceptive pill and the male condom fell as respondents’ age increased. ● Women aged 18–34 were more likely to be using the contraceptive pill than the male condom. Among women aged 40 and over this pattern is reversed. Women ‘at risk’ of pregnancy Three-fifths (60 per cent) of women aged 16–49 were ‘at risk’ of pregnancy (that is, they were in a heterosexual relationship but were neither pregnant nor protected by their own or their partner’s sterilisation). Eighty-eight per cent of women ‘at risk’ of pregnancy were currently using a method of contraception. Eight per cent were not using any method of contraception because of infertility, the menopause or they wanted to become pregnant, and a further four per cent were not using contraception for other reasons. Almost half (47 per cent) of women ‘at risk’ of pregnancy were currently using the contraceptive pill. Family planning services Three in five (60 per cent) women aged 16–49 had received family planning advice in the five years prior to interview. The majority of these women had visited their own GP or practice nurse (79 per cent) for this purpose and slightly more than a third (36 per cent) had visited a family planning clinic. Sterilisation and vasectomies Ten per cent of women aged 16–49 and 15 per cent of men aged 16–69 had had an operation to make them sterile. Among women the likelihood of having had an operation to become sterile rose with age. Over nine in ten (92 per cent) women who had been sterilised had had their operation carried out by the NHS compared with only two-thirds (66 per cent) of men. Condom use Two-fifths (41 per cent) of men aged 16–69 and just under half (48 per cent) of women aged 16-49 who had had a sexual relationship in the last year said that they had used a male condom in the year prior to interview. When men and women of the same age are compared there is little difference between the sexes in their use of the male condom. The only statistically significant differences between men and women were found among those in their twenties: in this age group men were more likely than women to have used a male condom in the year prior to interview (for example, 83 per cent of men aged 20-24 compared with 66 per cent of women in the same age group). Respondents most likely to have used a male condom in the last year if they were young (the proportion of men and women who had used a condom in the last year fell as age increased) or had multiple sexual partners in the last year. Knowledge of sexually transmitted infections Respondents were asked whether they felt that their behaviour had been influenced by their knowledge of HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections: ● ● The likelihood of a woman having been sterilised or having a partner who had had a vasectomy rose with age. National Statistics 4 Over three-fifths of men and women said that their behaviour had not been affected (65 per cent of men aged 16–69 and 62 per cent of women aged 16–49). ● Three in ten men aged 16–69 and women aged 16–49 said that they use a condom more often than they used to (29 per cent and 30 per cent respectively). ● Six per cent of men aged 16–69 and seven per cent of women aged 16–49 said that they have fewer one night stands. Television programmes remained the main source of information about HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections (40 per cent). Since 2000/01 the proportion of men aged 16–69 and women aged 16–49 who correctly identified Chlamydia as a sexually transmitted infection increased from 35 per cent to 45 per cent of men and among women rose from 65 per cent to 73 per cent. Reference 1 Dawe F and Meltzer H (2003) Contraception and Sexual Health, 2001, Office for National Statistics: London, available on the National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/ Product.asp?vlnk=6988 Conceptions in England and Wales, 2001 A recent report1 published in Health Statistics Quarterly 17 showed provisional estimated numbers and rates of conceptions for women usually resident in England and Wales in 2001. Some of the key observations were: • In 2001 there were an estimated 763 thousand conceptions in England and Wales, compared to 767 thousand in 2000, a reduction of 0.5 per cent (Table A). • Nearly four-fifths of these conceptions resulted in a maternity (Table A). This proportion has remained fairly stable over the past 11 years. • Ninety one per cent of conceptions within marriage resulted in a maternity compared with just 64 per cent of conceptions outside marriage (Table A). In 2001, 53 per cent of conceptions were outside marriage compared with 43 per cent in 1990. • Since 1990, conception rates for older women (aged 30 and over) have risen while rates for women in their twenties have generally fallen (Figure 1). Explanatory Notes Conceptions data combine information from registration of births and notifications of legal abortions occurring in England and Wales for women who are usually resident there. Under arrangements made following implementation of the Abortion Act 1967, the Office for National Statistics and its predecessors processed and analysed the abortion notification forms (HSA4) sent to the Chief Medical Officers of England and Wales. Population Trends 111 Conception statistics include pregnancies that result in: ● One or more live or still births (a maternity), or ● A legal abortion under the Abortion Act 1967 (an abortion). They do not include miscarriages or illegal abortions. The statistics shown are provisional, being based on the returns available to ONS at 23 December 2002. Final figures will be published in Births Statistics 2002 Series FM1 No 31 in December 2003. England and Wales (1990 = 100) 150 145 Table A 40 and over 140 135 35–39 130 125 120 115 110 30–34 105 100 Under 18 95 90 Under 20 25–29 85 20–24 80 75 Date of conception The date of conception is estimated using recorded gestation for abortions and stillbirths, and assuming 38 weeks gestation for live births. Age at conception A woman’s age at conception is calculated as the number of complete years between her date of birth and the date she conceived. In many cases her birthday will occur between conception and the birth or abortion; a woman may conceive, for example, at age 19 and give birth at age 20. The conception and birth may Relative changes in age-specific conception rates, 1990–2001 Figure 1 Relative change in conception rate (percentage) From 1st April 2002, the Department of Health has taken over this work and the system has been redesigned to process the new abortion notification forms that were introduced from 18th April 2002. These changes have temporarily slowed the processing of the forms, which in turn has affected data quality. The data supplied to ONS on abortions performed on residents of England and Wales between 1 April 2002 and 30 June 2002 that contribute to the 2001 conceptions figures were provisional and incomplete. Spring 2003 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Year of conception also occur in different calendar years. For these reasons the number of conceptions to teenage women in a given year, for example, does not match the number of maternities and abortions to teenagers occurring in that year. 1998 1999 2000 2001 Reference 1 Office for National Statistics (2003) Conceptions in England and Wales, 2001. Health Statistics Quarterly 17, 72–74. The full report appears in Health Statistics Quarterly 17. All age, teenage and underage conceptions (numbers and percentages): outcome by occurrence within/outside marriage Residents England and Wales Age of woman at conception*/year of conception Under 20 All ages All conceptions Base number (thousands) Percentage leading to: maternity legal abortion Conceptions inside marriage Base number (thousands) Percentage leading to: maternity legal abortion Conceptions outside marriage Base number (thousands) Percentage leading to: maternity outside marriage registered by mother alone maternity outside marriage registered by both parents maternity inside marriage legal abortion Under 16 1990 1995 2000 2001 1990 1995 2000 2001 1990 1995 2000 2001 871.5 790.3 767.0 763.3 113.3 86.6 97.7 95.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 7.9 80 20 80 20 77 23 77 23 64 36 65 35 61 39 60 40 49 51 52 48 46 54 44 56 494.4 417.7 366.2 359.2 10.9 6.6 6.5 6.3 : : : : 92 8 92 8 91 9 91 9 95 5 95 5 93 7 94 6 : : : : : : : : 377.1 372.5 400.8 404.1 102.5 80.0 91.2 89.6 8.1 8.0 8.1 7.9 14 13 11 11 19 19 16 15 25 23 20 19 41 9 36 47 7 33 48 5 36 48 5 36 36 6 39 41 3 37 40 2 42 40 2 43 23 1 51 28 1 48 26 0 54 24 0 56 * Conceptions leading to maternities or legal abortions – those which result in spontaneous miscarriage are not included. Note: Percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding. 5 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 Demographic indicators Figure A England and Wales Population change (mid-year to mid-year) Thousands 300 Natural change Net migration and other changes Total change 200 100 0 -100 7 19 1– 72 4 3 –7 72 Figure B –7 73 6 5 –7 74 –7 75 7 –7 76 9 8 –7 77 –7 78 1 0 –8 79 –8 80 2 –8 81 4 3 –8 82 –8 83 5 –8 84 0 1 6 7 9 8 1 0 2 4 3 6 5 7 8 9 –8 6–8 7–8 8–8 9–9 0–9 1–9 2–9 3–9 4–9 5–9 6–9 7–9 8-9 200 0–0 9 9– 0 85 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 9 2 Mid-year Total period fertility rate TFR (average number of children per woman) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Figure C Live births outside marriage Percentage of all live births 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Figure D Infant mortality (under 1 year) Rate per 1,000 live births 20 15 10 5 0 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year National Statistics 6 Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 Interim 2001-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries Chris Shaw Government Actuary’s Department This article describes new 2001-based national population projections which were carried out following the publication in September 2002 of the first results of the 2001 Census. These “interim” projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, take preliminary account of the results of the Census which showed that the base population used in previous projections was overestimated. The interim projections also incorporate a reduced assumption of net international migration to the United Kingdom, informed by the first results of the 2001 Census and taking account of more recent migration information. The population of the United Kingdom is now projected to increase from an estimated 58.8 million in 2001 to reach 63.2 million by 2026. The projected population at 2026 is about 1.8 million (2.8 per cent) lower than in the previous (2000-based) projections. INTRODUCTION The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) produces the official national population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries, usually every second year, at the request of the Registrars General of England & Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The assumptions are agreed in consultation with the statistical offices of the four countries. The latest ‘full’ set of projections, based on the estimated population of the UK in mid-2000, was published by GAD in November 2001.1 However, following consultation with the Registrars General of England & Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, it was agreed that the Government Actuary should carry out an additional ‘interim’ 2001-based set of national population projections for the UK and its constituent countries. This followed the publication in September 2002 of the first results of the 2001 Census.2 The interim 2001-based national population projections were published on 1 November 2002. These projections replace the previous 2000-based national projections. These interim 2001-based projections take preliminary account of the results of the 2001 Census which show that the base population used in the previous projections was overestimated. The interim projections also incorporate a revised assumption of net international migration to the United Kingdom, informed by the first results of the 2001 Census and taking account of more recent migration information. Assumed long-term fertility and mortality rates are unchanged from the 2000-based projections. The next full set of national population projections, based on the population at the middle of 2002, are scheduled for release in October 2003. These will 7 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 be based on a full reassessment of trends in fertility, mortality and migration and will take into account the further Census-related data which will become available during 2003. IMPACT OF THE CENSUS ON NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS The above information is summarised in Box One. The estimated population of the United Kingdom at mid-2001, based on 2001 Census results, was 58,837,000.3 This estimate is 919,000 lower than the estimated population at mid-2000 on which the previous national projections were based, and 1,150,000 lower than the 2000based projection of the population at mid-2001. Box one SUMMARY OF RECENT, CURRENT AND NEXT NATIONAL PROJECTIONS Projection 1998-based 2000-based 2001-based (interim) Published in November 1999 November 2001 November 2002 2002-based October 2003 (prov.) Key points Full review of all assumptions Full review of all assumptions Base population based on 2001 Census; Interim review of migration; No change to fertility and mortality Full review of all assumptions This article presents the main results from the interim 2001-based national population projections. The main focus of these projections is on the next twenty-five years, i.e. up to 2026. However, the results of longer-term projections are included in the graphs in this article and discussed where appropriate. The main areas where the Census results and the related revision to migration assumptions have altered the likely prospects for future population size and structure are highlighted. The article also gives results of variant population projections based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and net migration. The two main consequences of the 2001 Census results for the national population projections are that: • the mid-2000 population estimates, on which the latest ‘full’ GAD projections were based, overestimated the population of the United Kingdom by about 1.1 million; and • the assumption in GAD’s 2000-based principal projection of future long-term net inward migration to the UK of 135,000 persons a year was based on estimates of recent net inward international migration which are now known to have been significantly overestimated. The overestimation of the population was concentrated amongst males aged 20 to 39. This implies a significant gender differential in recent migration trends.4 The Census results therefore also have important implications for the assumed age/sex distribution of future international migrants. However, to take full account of 2001 Census data, considerably more information is required than the official mid-2001 population estimates based on the 2001 Census, which were published in September 2002 (for Scotland and Northern Ireland) and October 2002 (for England and Wales). In particular, the following are needed: • revised population estimates for earlier years consistent with 2001 Census data (estimates for England, Wales and Scotland are being revised back to 1982, those for Northern Ireland back to 1992); • revised estimates of total international migration for past years; and • revised estimates of international migration by age and sex for past years. For availability of subnational population projections, see Box two. Box two SUBNATIONAL PROJECTIONS Subnational projections for England are the responsibility of the Office for National Statistics, while those for the other countries are produced by the General Register Office for Scotland, the National Assembly for Wales and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency respectively. The availability of subnational projections for the four countries was summarised in the corresponding article on the 2000-based national projections. 8 There are no interim 2001-based subnational projections as much of the required information from the 2001 Census is not yet available. However, each country is looking to produce 2002-based subnational projections during 2004. These projections will take full account of the findings of the 2001 Census. National Statistics 8 Very little of this information was available when the 2001-based projections were prepared (and most of what was available was on a provisional basis). More data has been published subsequently5 ,6 and the remaining required data will become available later in 2003. All of this information will be taken into account in preparing the 2002-based projections. GAD expects to publish these projections in October 2003. It was, therefore, not possible to take full account of the implications of the 2001 Census for the interim 2001-based projections, but these interim projections: • are based on the estimated population at mid-2001 derived from the 2001 Census and therefore ‘correct’ for the overestimation of the base population in the 2000-based projections; and • incorporate revised assumptions of net international migration to the United Kingdom agreed with the Registrars General. This is necessarily a very provisional revision. A full reassessment of trends in international migration will be made for the 2002-based projections, when the full range of Census-related data has become available. Population Trends 111 For the interim 2001-based projections, the long-term fertility and mortality assumptions are unchanged from the 2000-based projections. Again, GAD will make a full assessment of the effect of 2001 Census results on fertility and mortality trends for the 2002-based projections taking account of the revised population denominators for the period 1982 to 2000. BASE POPULATION The 2001-based projections are based on the mid-2001 population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics, the General Register Office for Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.7 The estimated population of the United Kingdom at mid-2001 was 58.8 million. As Table 1 shows, this was 1.15 million (1.9 per cent) lower than the 2000-based projection of the population at mid-2001. This was a consequence of the base population in the previous projections having been an overestimate. The mid-2001 estimates were lower than had been expected for each country of the UK, ranging from 2.1 per cent lower in England to 0.9 per cent lower in both Scotland and Northern Ireland. Table 1 Population at mid-2001: mid-2001 estimates (based on 2001 Census) and 2000-based projections thousands Population at mid-2001 United Kingdom England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Table 2 Difference mid-2001 estimates 2000-based projections 000s percentage 58,837 49,181 2,903 5,064 1,689 59,987 50,225 2,949 5,109 1,705 –1,151 –1,044 –46 –44 –15 –1.9 –2.1 –1.6 –0.9 –0.9 Spring 2003 The difference between the mid-2001 estimates and the 2000-based projection of the UK population at mid-2001 by age and sex is shown in Figure 1a. (Similar charts for the individual countries of the UK can be found on the GAD website.) The male population was about 1 million lower than had been expected and this was concentrated on the 20–39 age group. However, the female population was only about 160 thousand lower than expected and at some ages, notably the peak childbearing ages of the late 20s, the census showed there were actually slightly more women than had been thought. UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS The assumptions used in the interim 2001-based national population projections are summarised in Table 2. Fertility and mortality As noted above, long-term fertility and mortality assumptions are unchanged from those used in the 2000-based projections. These were summarised in the corresponding article on the 2000–based national projections.8 However, assumptions for the first year of the interim projections (i.e. 2001– 02) were adjusted to agree with provisional estimates of births and deaths during that period. Trends in fertility and mortality for the period since 1982 will be reassessed for the 2002–based projections. However, given that the estimated number of women of childbearing age at mid-2001 was close to what was expected, it is unlikely that the Census will have any significant effect on the estimation of past fertility trends. However, because the Census showed that there were significantly fewer men aged 20–39 in the population than had been thought, it follows that male mortality rates at these ages have been underestimated in recent years. It is likely, therefore, that assumed male mortality rates for those aged 20–39 will be revised upwards in the 2002-based projections. Nevertheless, because mortality rates at these ages are very low, this will have only a small effect on the number of men surviving to older ages and on overall mortality measures such as the expectation of life at birth. Assumptions for individual countries, interim 2001-based projections Total fertility rate Net annual migration (000s) 2001–02 2005–06 2010–11 from 2014–15 2000-based from 2014–15 from 2002–03 2000-based from 2002–03 England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland 1.63 1.64 1.47 1.77 1.71 1.74 1.55 1.78 1.74 1.75 1.58 1.80 1.75 1.75 1.60 1.80 1.75 1.75 1.60 1.80 97.0 5.5 –1.0 –1.5 128.0 7.5 0.0 –0.5 United Kingdom 1.62 1.70 1.73 1.74 1.74 100.0 135.0 Expectation of life at birth (years) Males Females 2001–02 2010–11 2020–21 2024–25 2000-based from 2024–25 2001–02 2010–11 2020–21 2024–25 2000-based from 2024–25 England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland 76.2 75.7 73.8 75.8 77.6 77.1 75.0 76.8 78.8 78.3 76.2 78.0 79.2 78.6 76.5 78.3 79.2 78.6 76.5 78.3 80.7 80.1 79.2 80.5 81.7 81.2 79.9 81.3 83.0 82.5 81.2 82.5 83.4 82.9 81.6 82.9 83.4 82.9 81.6 82.9 United Kingdom 75.9 77.3 78.6 78.9 78.9 80.5 81.5 82.8 83.2 83.2 9 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Figure 1 Spring 2003 Population at 2001 and 2026 by age and sex: mid-2001 estimates and interim 2001-based projections compared with 2000-based projections United Kingdom (b) Projected population at 2026 (a) Population at 2001 6 ▲ 2001-based projection 12 greater than 2000-based projection 3 10 8 Percentage difference 4 0 mid-2001 estimate greater than 2000-based projection Percentage difference ▲ 6 2 0 -2 -4 -8 -6 -9 mid-2001 estimate less than ▼ 2000-based projection -6 -3 -12 2001-based projection less than ▼ 2000-based projection -10 -12 -15 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Age Males Migration Assumptions of future international migration have been derived from analyses of recent trends in civilian migration to and from the United Kingdom, as measured by the International Passenger Survey (IPS). Allowance has also been made for sources of international migration not covered by the IPS, namely migration with the Irish Republic, asylum seekers allowed to remain in the UK and “visitor switchers” (people who enter the country as short-term visitors, but who are subsequently granted an extension of stay for a year or longer). Assumptions of future international migration are therefore based on estimates of these different components. However, the 2001 Census results showed that overall estimates of net international migration to the UK made over the last two decades had been significantly overestimated. The average annual overestimation of net migration was about 80,000. [This was calculated from a comparison of estimated population growth from the ‘original’ population estimates, i.e. those based on the 1991 Census, with growth recalculated from interim rebased population estimates taking account of 2001 Census results.] To prevent this overestimation affecting assumptions of future net migration, a downward ‘net migration adjustment’ of 80,000 – i.e. equivalent to the average annual overestimation of net migration since 1991 – was made.9 It should be emphasised that this was necessarily an imprecise and provisional way of dealing with this issue. Later in 2003, following an assessment of the accuracy of population estimates made since 1981, the Office for National Statistics will publish final revised estimates of international migration to and from the United Kingdom and its constituent countries (some provisional interim estimates have already National Statistics 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Age Females been published5). International migration assumptions for future national population projections will be based on this revised series. The composition of the long-term net migration assumptions for the UK in the interim 2001-based projections, compared with that assumed for the 2000-based projections, is as follows: Long-term annual net migration assumptions, United Kingdom Total net migration As covered by IPS Irish Republic Asylum seekers Visitor switchers Net migration adjustment Interim 2001-based projections 2000-based projections +100,000 +140,000 –10,000 +30,000 +20,000 –80,000 +135,000 +100,000 –5,000 +20,000 +20,000 n/a Despite the downward net migration adjustment of 80,000 reflecting the overestimation of net migration revealed by the census, the long-term assumption of net migration into the United Kingdom has been reduced by only 35,000 persons per year from 135,000 to 100,000. This reflects continuing increases in the levels of net migration recorded by the IPS and an increase in the assumed number of asylum seekers allowed to remain in the UK. The net migration assumptions for the constituent countries of the United Kingdom are shown in Table 2. These combine assumptions regarding the distribution of international migration with assumptions about cross-border migration between the four countries. The crossborder assumptions are unchanged from those used in the 2000-based Population Trends 111 Figure 2 Population of the United Kingdom and constituent countries, revised population estimates and interim 2001based projections compared with original estimates and 2000-based projections Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, 1991–2041 United Kingdom and England, 1991–2071 70 5.5 5.5 70 5.0 United Kingdom 65 5.0 Scotland 65 60 60 England 55 55 50 50 45 45 Millions Millions Spring 2003 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 Wales 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 Northern Ireland 1.5 1.5 40 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Year 2041 2051 2061 40 2071 1.0 1991 2.0 2001 2011 2021 2031 1.0 2041 Year Rebased estimates Interim 2001-based projections Original estimates 2000-based projections projections but will be reviewed for the next (2002-based) projections. However, because of the reduced assumption of international migration, the assumed net inflows are lower (or net outflows are higher) for each of the four countries. TOTAL POPULATION SIZE The results of the new interim projections are summarised for the constituent countries of the United Kingdom in Table 3 and compared with the results of the 2000-based projections in Figure 2. The projections for the individual countries are carried forward for forty years, i.e. until 2041, but to 2071 for the UK as a whole as shown in Figure 2. The population of the United Kingdom is projected to increase gradually from 58.8 million in 2001 to reach 63.2 million by 2026. This is equivalent to an average annual rate of growth of 0.28 per cent. Around 60 per cent of the projected 4.3 million increase between 2001 and 2026 is attributable to the assumed level of net inward migration. The remainder is due to projected natural increase (more births than deaths). Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2040 at nearly 64 million and then gradually start to fall. The population of Scotland is projected to continue to decline slowly from 2001, while the populations of Wales and Northern Ireland are projected to peak in around 25 years’ time and then start to fall. The population of England is still projected to be increasing at 2041 but at a very low rate of growth. Comparison with 2000-based projections Future population sizes are lower than previously projected. The projected total population of each country is compared with the 2000- based projections in Table 4 and the difference between the two projections is broken down into changes in the base population and changes in the projected number of births, deaths and migrants. Reductions in the projected numbers of deaths (as compared with the 2000-based projections) are shown as positive numbers in the table as they contribute to an increase in the size of the population. For the UK as a whole, the projected total population in 2026 is about 1.8 million (2.8 per cent) lower than previously projected. The reduction at 2026 is 3.0 per cent for England, 2.5 per cent for Wales, 2.2 per cent for Northern Ireland and 1.7 per cent for Scotland. This is because of the overestimation of the base population in the previous projections coupled with the effect of the reduced assumption of net inward migration, itself a consequence of the Census results. Wales and Northern Ireland are now projected to reach their peak population sizes in 2029 and 2026 respectively, about the same time as in the 2000-based projections. As in the previous projections, the population of England is still growing in forty years’ time, whereas the population of Scotland is still projected to decline continuously. The effects of the reduced base population and the lower migration assumption are marginally offset by there being (for the UK as a whole) slightly more projected births and slightly fewer projected deaths. A reduction in the number of deaths is to be expected given the lower overall population size. The slight increase in births arises despite the reduction in the base population and the reduction in the net migration assumption. This is because both of these reductions are concentrated amongst males. Indeed, the new net migration assumption for females is very slightly higher than in the 2000-based projections. 11 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Table 3 Spring 2003 Components of change: five year summary, 2001–2026 annual averages (thousands) 2001–2006 2006–2011 2011–2016 2016–2021 2021–2026 58,837 675 613 59,657 683 609 60,524 698 611 61,459 709 624 62,386 705 651 Natural change Net migration 62 102 73 100 87 100 85 100 54 100 Total change Population at end 164 59,657 173 60,524 187 61,459 185 62,386 154 63,156 England Population at start Births Deaths 49,181 571 506 49,994 579 503 50,859 594 504 51,790 606 516 52,725 605 539 Natural change Net migration 65 97 76 97 89 97 90 97 66 97 Total change Population at end 163 49,994 173 50,859 186 51,790 187 52,725 163 53,541 Wales Population at start Births Deaths 2,903 31 33 2,926 32 33 2,947 33 33 2,972 33 34 2,997 32 35 –2 7 –1 6 –0 6 –1 6 –2 6 5 4 5 5 3 Population at end 2,926 2,947 2,972 2,997 3,012 Scotland Population at start Births Deaths 5,064 52 59 5,023 51 58 4,983 50 57 4,943 50 58 4,895 48 60 Natural change Net migration –7 –1 –7 –1 –7 –1 –9 –1 –12 –1 Total change –8 –8 –8 –10 –13 Population at end 5,023 4,983 4,943 4,895 4,828 Northern Ireland Population at start Births Deaths 1,689 21 15 1,714 21 15 1,735 21 16 1,754 21 16 1,769 20 17 6 –1 6 –2 5 –2 4 –2 3 –2 5 4 4 3 1 1,714 1,735 1,754 1,769 1,775 United Kingdom Population at start Births Deaths Natural change Net migration Total change Natural change Net migration Total change Population at end National Statistics 12 Population Trends 111 Table 4 Spring 2003 Change in projected population compared with the 2000-based projections thousands Country Change due to Interim 2001-based projections 2000-based projections Total change base population* projected births projected deaths** projected migrants Population at 2011 England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland United Kingdom 50,859 2,947 4,983 1,735 60,524 52,151 3,000 5,047 1,759 61,956 –1,292 –53 –64 –24 –1,432 –1,044 –46 –44 –15 –1,151 17 2 –1 0 18 60 4 –9 1 57 –325 –14 –10 –10 –357 Population at 2021 England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland United Kingdom 52,725 2,997 4,895 1,769 62,386 54,262 3,067 4,973 1,803 64,105 –1,537 –70 –78 –34 –1,719 –1,044 –46 –44 –15 –1,151 46 3 1 0 50 97 6 –14 0 89 –635 –34 –20 –20 –707 Population at 2026 England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland United Kingdom 53,541 3,012 4,828 1,775 63,156 55,178 3,088 4,911 1,814 64,992 –1,637 –76 –83 –39 –1,836 –1,044 –46 –44 –15 –1,151 63 5 2 0 70 133 8 –15 0 127 –790 –44 –25 –25 –882 * Difference between the estimated population at mid-2001 and the 2000-based projection of the population at mid-2001. ** Reductions in the projected number of deaths (compared with the previous projections) are shown as positive numbers as they contribute to an increase in the size of the population. Table 5 Projected population by age, 2001–2026 United Kingdom thousands Age group 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 All ages 0–14 15–29 30–44 45–59 60–74 75 & over 58,837 11,091 11,073 13,291 11,144 7,820 4,418 59,657 10,624 11,428 12,996 11,735 8,280 4,594 60,524 10,329 11,800 12,133 12,223 9,266 4,774 61,459 10,341 11,718 11,644 12,868 9,822 5,066 62,386 10,517 11,258 11,997 12,582 10,407 5,625 63,156 10,630 10,967 12,370 11,760 10,954 6,475 Mean age (years) 39.1 39.8 40.5 41.2 41.8 42.4 Under 16 Working age* Pensionable age* 11,855 36,154 10,828 11,422 36,953 11,283 11,064 37,492 11,968 11,020 38,390 12,049 11,210 38,999 12,177 11,332 38,651 13,173 328 299 627 309 305 614 295 319 614 287 314 601 287 312 600 293 341 634 Dependants per 1,000 persons of working age Under 16 Pensionable age* Total* * Working age and pensionable age populations based on the state pension age for given year. Between 2010 and 2020, state pension age will change from 65 for men and 60 years for women, to 65 years for both sexes. 13 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTION Table 5 summarises the projected age structure of the population. The population will become gradually older with the mean age of the population rising from 39.1 years in 2001 to 42.4 years by 2026. Longer-term projections show continuing ageing with the mean age eventually stabilising at nearly 44 years from 2040. The number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall by 7.3 per cent from 11.9 million in 2001 to just below 11 million in 2014 and then to rise slowly to 2026. The number of people of working age (currently defined as 16 to 64 for men and 16 to 59 for women) is projected to rise by 3.7 per cent from 36.2 million in 2001 to 37.5 million in 2011. Allowing for the planned change in women’s state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020,10 the working age population would rise further to 39.0 million by 2021 and then gradually start to fall. In 2001, there were just over one million more children aged under 16 than people of state pensionable age. However, as a result of these changes, from 2007 the population of state pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children and by 2026 is projected to exceed it by nearly 2 million. Comparison with 2000-based projections The population at 2026 by age and sex from the interim 2001-based projections is compared with that from the 2000-based projections in Figure 1b. (Again, similar charts for the individual countries of the UK can be found on the GAD website.) Many of the key features of this analysis follow from the comparison of the mid-2001 base population with the 2000-based projection of the population at mid-2001 in Figure 1a. A similar comparison of sex ratios in 2001 and 2026 from the 2000based and interim 2001-based projections is given in Figure 3. Even ignoring the change in women’s state pension age, the working age population will become much older as the baby boom generations of the mid 1960s age. So, during the period to 2016, the number of adults aged under 45 is projected to fall by nearly one million (4 per cent). However, the 45 to 59 age group is projected to increase by 15 per cent over the same period, from 11.1 million in 2001 to 12.9 million in 2016. The results for 2026 clearly depend on the assumptions made about the age distribution of future migrants, which is a particularly uncertain aspect of the projection process at the present time. Normally, migrant age distributions for projection purposes are derived directly from the same data sources used to derive estimates of total migration flows. However, as noted above, these data sources have overestimated net migration in total. Also this past overestimation of net migration has not been uniform across the population, but has been concentrated amongst males aged 20 to 39. The number of people over pensionable age is projected to increase by 10.5 per cent from 10.8 million in 2001 to 12.0 million in 2011. However, with the increase in women’s state pension age, the population of pensionable age will rise only slightly further (to 12.2 million) by 2021. A faster increase will then resume with longer-term projections suggesting the number over pensionable age peaking at over 15 million around 2040. Without the change in women’s state pension age, the population of pensionable age would have risen to 14.2 million by 2021, eventually reaching 17 million. Therefore, for the purposes of these interim projections, GAD calculated an age and sex distribution for the total ‘net migration adjustment’ mentioned above. This was calculated so that, when combined with the age distributions obtained from the other migration data sources, projected sex ratios at young ages (roughly up to the late 20s) in future years would be broadly similar to those observed in the 2001 Census. Implicitly, the assumption being made is that the migration trends which have brought about the present age and sex structure of the population at younger ages will continue unchanged. Figure 3 Sex ratios at 2001 and 2026, mid-2001 estimates and interim 2001-based projections compared with 2000-based projections United Kingdom (b) 2026 (a) 2001 120 120 2000-based projection 2000-based projection 100 100 mid-2001 estimate Males per 100 females Males per 100 females 2001-based projection 80 60 40 20 80 60 40 20 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Age National Statistics 60 14 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 Age 60 70 80 90 Population Trends 111 A further consequence of the assumed age and sex distributions is that, simply because of population ageing, the lower sex ratios will spread progressively to older ages. So, the Census results showed that current sex ratios are significantly lower than previously thought between ages 20 to 40, but Figure 3 shows lower ratios than previously projected up to age 65 by the year 2026. Revised estimates of migration by age for previous years will become available later in 2003. These will provide a stronger basis for the migrant age distributions to be applied in future projections. In general, important areas for future research will be to investigate whether the gender differentials in migration revealed by the Census are likely to continue and to what extent males (in particular) who leave the country at young ages may be likely to return at older ages. However, despite these uncertainties about the future age and sex distribution of migrants and their impact on future sex ratios, projected long-term trends in broad age groups are not significantly different from previous projections, as illustrated by Figure 4. This shows that the broad outlook of children and young adults accounting for an increasing lower share of the total population, and the pensionable age population for a correspondingly higher share, has not altered. DEPENDENCY RATIOS Figure 5 shows projected dependency ratios, i.e. the number of children under 16 or the population of pensionable age (or the sum of the two) expressed as a proportion of the working age population. These are, of course, somewhat arbitrary boundaries as, in reality, full-time education ends, and retirement starts, at a range of ages. Figure 4 Percentage of population in broad age groups, 2000-based and interim 2001-based projections The total dependency ratio will fall gradually from 627 dependants per 1,000 persons of working age in 2001 to just under 600 per 1,000 in 2020 when the increase in women’s state pension age is complete. It will then increase rapidly, with longer-term projections suggesting a levelling off at around 700 per 1,000 from the mid 2030s. However, this would still be slightly lower than the ratio in the early 1970s, although then it was children who comprised the majority of dependants. Of course, without the planned change in women’s state pension age, the proportion of dependants would rise earlier and further. Figure 5 also shows how these dependency ratios differ from those previously estimated and projected. As the reduction in the base population is concentrated amongst those of working age, the effect is that the current total dependency ratio and that projected for the short and medium-term has been slightly increased. In the longer-term, the differential gradually reduces. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS The one certainty of making population projections is that, due to the inherent unpredictability of demographic behaviour, they will turn out to be wrong as a forecast of future demographic events or population structure. One way of giving users an indication of uncertainty is by considering the performance of past projections. An analysis of the accuracy of the national population projections made during the 1970s and 1980s was published in Population Trends 77.11 Another way of illustrating uncertainty is by preparing variant projections based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration. For the 2000-based projections, GAD Figure 5 Actual and projected dependency ratios, 2000-based and interim 2001-based projections, 1991–2051 United Kingdom United Kingdom 800 30 700 700 2001-based Dependents per 1,000 persons of working age 800 2000-based 35 25 Percentage Spring 2003 20 15 10 Total 600 600 500 500 Pensionable age 400 400 Children under 16 300 300 5 0 0–15 16–39 2001 40–64 2026 65+ 2051 200 1991 2001 2011 Original estimates and 2000-based projections 15 2021 Year 2031 2041 200 2051 Rebased estimates and interim 2001-based projections National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 produced the most extensive set of official variant projections ever published in the United Kingdom.12 For the first time, this included variant projections at individual country level in addition to UK level variants. It is likely that a similar range of variants will be published for the 2002-based projections. However, for the interim 2001-based projections, only ‘standard’ high and low variants for each of the three components of population change at UK level are available. Full details of these variants are available on the GAD website. Compared with the principal projection assumptions, the fertility variants assume long term family sizes of ± 0.2 children per woman. Projected life expectancy at birth at 2026 differs by about ± 1.5 years from the principal projection for males and by about ± 1 year for females. These fertility and mortality assumptions are unchanged from those used for the 2000-based variants. (Although, of course, the projected population numbers in the resulting variants differ from the corresponding 2000-based versions because of the reduced base population and the revised principal net migration assumption.) The high and low migration assumptions have been reduced in line with the reduction in the principal assumption. The assumed high and low long-term annual net inflows are now +160,000 and +40,000 respectively. As with the fertility and mortality variants, these assumptions are intended as plausible alternative scenarios and not as upper or lower limits for what might occur in the future. Figure 6 shows the projected total population under these alternative assumptions. It is clear that there is considerable uncertainty regarding the future size of the population. Under these alternative, but still plausible, fertility and migration assumptions, the population at 2026 differs from the principal projection by around ± 2 million (± 3 per cent). The uncertainty widens with time and by 2071, the total Figure 6 72 70 68 Population of the United Kingdom according to principal and variant interim 2001-based projections, 1991–2071 population under the high and low fertility assumptions differs by about ± 8 million (13 per cent) from the principal projection. Figure 6 also shows that future population decline is not inevitable. Indeed, previous work has shown that a long-term family size of 2.0 children per woman coupled with net migration of 100,000 per year, for example, would lead to continuing population growth throughout the 21st century.13 However, while population decline is not inevitable, Figure 7 demonstrates that population ageing will occur under any plausible set of future assumptions. In 2001, some 16 per cent of the population were aged 65 and over. But, although higher fertility levels would reduce population ageing, even the high fertility variant in the interim 2001based projections produces an increase in the proportion aged 65 and over to over 20 per cent by 2026 and to nearly 22 per cent by 2051. And in the low fertility or high life expectancy variants, the proportion aged 65 and over would be above one in four by 2051. The inevitability of population ageing is a consequence of the current age structure of the population. This, in turn, is a result of changes in the past numbers of births. Thus, during the first half of this century, the number of elderly people will rise as the relatively large cohorts born after the Second World War and during the 1960s baby boom replace at older ages the much smaller cohorts born before 1945. Conversely at younger ages, the relatively small cohorts born since the mid 1970s will replace the baby boomers. NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS ON THE INTERNET Full details of the results of the interim 2001-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries are available on the GAD website www.gad.gov.uk. Figure 7 28 72 HF = High fertility HM = High migration HL = High life expectancy PP = Principal projection LL = Low life expectancy LM = Low migration LF = Low fertility 28 LF = Low fertility HL = High life expectancy LM = Low migration PP = Principal projection HM = High migration LL = Low life expectancy HF = High fertility HF 70 Proportion of the population aged 65 or over according to principal and variant interim 2001-based projections, 1991–2071 26 HM 68 LF 66 66 Millions HL 64 PP 62 LL 60 64 62 26 LM PP 24 HM 22 LL 22 HF 20 20 18 18 16 16 60 LM 58 58 LF 56 54 1991 Percentage over 65 24 HL 56 2001 2011 2021 2031 Year National Statistics 2041 16 2051 2061 54 2071 14 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Year 2041 2051 2061 14 2071 Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 REFERENCES Key findings • The United Kingdom population is projected to increase gradually from an estimated 58.8 million in 2001 to over 63 million by 2026, equivalent to an average annual rate of growth of 0.28 per cent. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2040 at nearly 64 million and then gradually start to fall. • The projected total population of the United Kingdom in 2026 is about 1.8 million (2.8 per cent) lower than in the previous (2000-based) projections. This is a consequence of the base population in the previous projections having been an overestimate, together with the effect of a reduced assumption of future net inward migration. • The population of Scotland is projected to continue to decline slowly from 2001, while the populations of Wales and Northern Ireland are projected to peak in around twenty-five years’ time and then start to fall. The population of England is still projected to be increasing in forty years’ time but at a low rate of growth. • Almost 60 per cent of the projected 4.3 million increase in the UK population between 2001 and 2026 is attributable to the assumed level of net inward migration. The remainder is due to projected natural increase (more births than deaths). • The population will gradually become older with the mean age projected to rise from 39.1 years in 2001 to 42.4 years in 2026. • By 2007, the population of pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children. • The number of people of state pensionable age is projected to increase by over 10.5 per cent from 10.8 million in 2001 to 12.0 million in 2011. Allowing for the change in women’s state pension age, the population of pensionable age will rise only slightly further (to 12.2 million) by 2021. However, a faster increase will then resume with longer-term projections suggesting the number over pensionable age will peak at over 15 million around 2040. 1. Office for National Statistics/Government Actuary’s Department (2002). National population projections: 2000-based. ONS Series PP2 no.23. TSO: London. 2. The Big Number. National Statistics News Release (30 September 2002). 3. Steady growth: 1.4 million increase in decade to 2001 www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=6 (February 2003). 4. Implications of the 2001 Census results: Why the Census shows fewer men. Available from www.statistics.gov.uk/census2001/ implications.asp 5. International migration 2001 – interim estimates. National Statistics News Release (28 November 2002). 6. Revised mid-1982 to mid-2000 population estimates are available from the National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=601 7. Available from the National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=601 8. Shaw C (2002) 2000-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries. Population Trends 107, pp. 5–13. 9. For further details of how this adjustment was calculated see www.gad.gov.uk/Population/2001/migradj.htm. 10. Pensions Act 1995. Chapter 26 Part II, Section 126 and Schedule 4. 11. Shaw C (1994) Accuracy and uncertainty of national population projections for the United Kingdom. Population Trends 77, pp. 24–32. 12. Shaw C (2002) Variant population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries. Population Trends 109, pp. 15–26. 13. Shaw C (2001) United Kingdom population trends in the 21st century. Population Trends 103, pp. 37–46. 17 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 Higher qualifications, first-birth timing, and further childbearing in England and Wales Michael S. Rendall and Steve Smallwood Population and Demography Division Office for National Statistics INTRODUCTION This article examines how strong the association is between the obtaining of higher educational qualifications and later entry to motherhood, and how these are associated with levels and pace of second and subsequent childbearing. Data from the ONS Longitudinal Study are used to estimate these associations for women born in England and Wales between 1954 and 1958. Average age of entry to motherhood is found to be five years later for women with higher qualifications than for those without. Increasing age of motherhood is always associated with a lower likelihood of going on to have another child, but the decline with age is less pronounced for women with a higher qualification. Moreover, for any given age of childbearing, mothers with a higher qualification are more likely than those without to have another child, and are more likely to do so quickly. National Statistics This article describes an empirical study of the associations between women’s attainment of higher education qualifications and their childbearing. In demographic language, it is a study of “parity progression”. This term refers to the pace at which women begin their childbearing, the pace at which they go on to have a second child, a third child, etc., and the proportions of them who ever have a first child, a second child, a third child, etc. The focuses of the present study are on how progressions from the first birth to second and later births are affected by the woman’s age at her first birth, and on the role of attainment of higher qualifications in mediating this relationship. In particular, we investigate whether, and by how much, higher-qualified women accelerate their subsequent childbearing after a later age of entry to motherhood. Understanding this relationship becomes increasingly important for the understanding and prediction of fertility in the United Kingdom as participation in higher education rises. For example, the shaping of policy to promote better work-family compatibility, and the prediction of its effects, may benefit from analyses of family building that differentiate women by their educational qualifications. The empirical starting point of our analyses is the trend of successive cohorts of women in England and Wales born since the Second World War to wait longer before starting a family. It is estimated that fewer than one in four women born in 1950 were still childless by age 30, whereas for women born in the early 1970s this figure had risen to two in five (Figure 1). As well as later childbearing, there has been a rise in the number of women remaining childless at the end of their reproductive lives. While only around one in ten women born in 1950 remained childless at the end of her reproductive life, it is likely that around one in five born in the early 1960s will remain childless.1 18 Population Trends 111 Figure 1 Proportion of women childless by age and selected cohorts born 1940–1975 England and Wales Proportion childless 1.0 1940 1950 1955 1960 1970 1975 Spring 2003 particularly when the first birth is relatively early. In studies specifically for Britain, Wright et al 9 did not find any effect for progression to third births in their study of birth histories in the 1980 Women and Employment Survey (WES). However, a study of birth histories from the 1986–1989 General Household Survey (GHS) by Ní Bhrolcháin10 found evidence that education had a positive effect on progression to second, third and fourth births for any given age at previous birth. Economic analyses of childbearing generate hypotheses not only about family size, but also about the pace of family formation once it begins. The authors of another study using the 1980 WES data11, for example, hypothesised and found that women in higher-earning occupations go on to have a next child more quickly. This was theorised as being consistent with time spent out of the workforce while the children are young being more expensive for these women in terms of their foregone earnings. This reasoning, however, is based on the timing of childbearing being a choice outcome. Meanwhile, a woman’s biological childbearing capacity (her fecundity) is known to decline with age.12 Thus while women who have a later first birth may have economic incentives to go on faster to the next child, lower fecundity may reduce this. Empirical analysis is again needed to assess the net effect of competing socio-economic and biological forces on childbearing. 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 15 20 25 30 Age 35 40 45 Source: Latest estimates of true birth order, Birth Statistics FM1 no.30 The role of higher education is widely believed to be central to major changes in parity progression in Britain and elsewhere. Generally, having a higher level of education is associated with later and less childbearing.2 Economic analyses of fertility3 discuss competing factors at play. First, the opportunity cost of lost wages caused by time out of the workforce when having and rearing a child is higher for those women whose actual or potential earnings are greater. This depresses fertility. Second, women with higher earnings have more income to spend on children, resulting in a positive “income effect” on childbearing. The extra income, however, may also be spent on more money per child (“greater child quality”) and so will not necessarily lead to more children. A third factor is that higher-educated women are more likely to have higher-earning husbands or partners, so providing a further positive “income effect” on childbearing. Others have suggested that social and ideational factors play a major part in determining fertility differentials.4 The move towards post-materialism and individual autonomy are seen as producing low fertility levels as traditional family values cease to be the norm. Ideational change is strongly related to social stratification, and it is argued that higher educated women are more likely to be in the vanguard of social change and may therefore have lower levels of fertility than other women. It is perhaps not surprising, therefore, that empirical studies point to a more complex relationship between women’s education and fertility than that shown by a generally negative correlation between education level and completed family size. In the United States, Martin5 found that, from the late 1970s onwards, first birth rates at ages under 30 decreased for all educational levels, but increased at ages above 30 for women who had a four-year college degree. He also found an increase in second birth rates for college graduates with a first birth after 30, compared to non-college graduates, but no significant effect for third births. Kravdal6 similarly found a positive relationship of education with third births in Norway, and Kreyenfeld7 more recently found a positive relationship of education with second births in Germany. Rahim and Ram8, however, describe a more mixed set of findings for Canada, where education is inversely associated with going on to a third birth, but positively associated with going on to a second birth DATA AND METHODOLOGY The main data source used in this study is the ONS Longitudinal Study (LS).13 The LS has linked the birth registration and census records since 1971 for a 1 per cent sample of all women in England and Wales. For the present study, we select those women born in England in Wales in the years 1954 to 1958, and use births to these women recorded through the end of the calendar year 1998. This choice of birth cohorts and calendar years allows us to estimate the 1954–58 cohort’s reproductive lives from beginning to end. The very large sample size of the LS presents an opportunity to estimate these reproductive lives with much lower statistical sampling error than would be possible using a survey data source. A total of 11,958 LS women born in England in Wales between 1954–1958 constitute this study’s sample. Of these, 17.0 per cent had obtained a higher qualification by their mid-30s. Higherqualified women are defined in this study as having obtained any postsecondary-school qualification, as defined and coded in the 1991 Census.14 Unfortunately, the 1991 Census question on education does not allow for any distinction below the tertiary qualification level. The LS data are first used to estimate annual probabilities of a first or next birth. A logistic regression equation is used for this purpose. A binary dependent variable is specified for a birth versus no birth in the given year. Regressors are specified for age, education, number of previous births (0, 1 or 2-plus) and number of years (“duration”) since the previous birth. Single years of age are used as regressors up to age 39, and an age and age-squared specification for ages 40 through 43. The regressors include statistically-significant interactions of education with age, parity and duration since previous birth. It is based on these statistically-significant differences at the regression stage that we discuss substantive differences in the pace and levels of parity progression between women with and without higher qualifications, and between women differing in their ages at the birth of the previous child. We further adjust these annual birth probabilities to match national population statistics estimates of age- and parity-specific fertility rates (see Box 1). The pace and eventual levels of parity progression, from 0 to 1 birth, from 1 to 2 births, and from 2 births onwards, are calculated from the annual birth probabilities by life table methods (see Box 2). A separate calculation is performed for the two education levels. A distribution of 19 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 Box one Box two Adjustment of annual birth probabilities to National Population Statistics Life table calculation of parity progression ratios The annual birth probabilities generated from the logistic regression on the LS data are corrected for an overall downward bias in their levels that arises through incomplete linkage of registered births in the dataset. 16 Our correction adjusts the annual birth probabilities upwards to match the national population statistics estimates of cohort-, age- and parity-specific fertility rates (PASFRs). 17 This adjustment also has the benefit of increasing the statistical precision of the annual probabilities of birth over those estimated from the LS data alone. 18 Ratios of these annual birth rates to the predicted annual birth probabilities from the regression (the latter summed over the two education groups according to their sample proportions by age and parity) were first calculated. These ratios were then applied to the regression-predicted annual birth probabilities by age, parity, education and duration since last birth. The same correction factors were applied across the two education groups and durations since last births. We did so after first comparing annual birth probabilities in the LS and GHS for samples of second births and third births in the early 1980s through early 1990s, by education and by duration. The results from these comparisons were of similar patterns of differences between LS and General Household Survey (GHS) estimates (1) between women with and without higher qualifications, and (2) between women giving birth earlier (age 25–30) and later (age 31–37). On this basis, we interpret the results in this paper as being unbiased with regard to making comparisons by education and by age at previous birth. Our LS-to-GHS comparisons did reveal a tendency towards longer birth intervals in the LS. Since our ratio corrections do not adjust for this, the results are likely to underestimate to some degree the speed of progression to the next birth, albeit equally so for higher-qualified and non-higher-qualified women and for earlier and later childbearers. age at progression to the first birth is calculated for all ages from 16 to 43. For second and higher order births, calculations are made for each age of the mother at her previous birth in the range from 25 to 36 years. Starting at age 25 permits a comparison of parity progression between women with and without a higher education qualification that, in the great majority of cases, will have been attained before her first birth. This reduces the likelihood that a negative association between education level and second and higher parity progression is due to childbearing reducing education rather than due to education reducing childbearing. Our analysis extends to a highest age of 36 for the previous birth in order to achieve an optimal balance between analysing a large fraction of later childbearing and maintaining sufficient sample sizes of later childbearers. As our subsequent life table analyses show, age 36 encompasses the 90th percentile of all first childbearing among higherqualified women. That is, fewer than 10 per cent of the first births to higher-qualified women occur after age 36 (and fewer than 3 per cent of National Statistics 20 The parity progression life table use annual probabilities of birth derived from the logistic regression estimation, and corrected for non-linkage (see Box 1). The parity progression life table works similarly to the mortality life table. Both are “singledecrement” tables. 19 The “decrement” event in the parity progression life table, however, is a first or next birth, while for a mortality life table it is a death. The mortality life table’s clock begins in the year of an individual’s own birth, while the parity progression life table begins in the year of the woman’s previous child being born, or in the year she attains age 16 in the case of first childbearing. The other major difference between the mortality and parity progression life tables is that all individuals eventually die, but not all women have a first or next birth. Thus the distributions of women’s ages at next birth (the life table d(x) function that is plotted in Figures 2 and 4) do not sum to 1 until the proportions not progressing to the next birth are also added in. The parity progression table ends at age 45, where the survival function l(45) then indicates the proportion not progressing, and 1-l(45) indicates the proportion progressing to the first or next birth (the “parity progression ratio”). Age 45 is arbitrarily designated as the end of the reproductive life. However, to “finish off ” the reproductive lifetime in a way that permits births after the 44 th year, we set the probability of a birth at or after age 44 (that is, q(44)) equal to the probability of a birth at age 43, having noted approximately equal numbers of births at age 43 and at age 44 and higher in period birth statistics. Finally, in order to calculate the age distributions of women at first or next birth (for Tables 1 to 3), the d(x) life table function is divided by the parity progression ratio. This ensures that the distribution is over all women who make the progression. the first births of non-higher-qualified women). While much of the first childbearing of non-higher-qualified women occurs before age 25, the 25 to 36 year-old age range nevertheless allows for the 60th to 90th percentiles of both education groups’ first childbearing to be analysed. This proves useful for our comparisons of the likelihood of having a one-child family according to education level, and so for the beginnings of an overall assessment of the association between higher education and family building after the first child. RESULTS All results are for the cohorts of women born between 1954 and 1958 (“the 1954–58 cohort”). Further, consistent with the calendar-year structure of the LS data, age is measured by the year in which a given birthday occurs (current year minus year of birth) and not by the conventional “age at last birthday”. Thus we refer, for example, to births occurring in a woman’s 25th year rather than at age 25. Population Trends 111 First childbearing by education Figure 3 Proportions of all higher-qualified or non-higher qualified women having a first birth at each age from 16 through 43 are presented in Figure 2. In Table 1, percentile statistics are presented for the age distribution at first birth among those women who ever had a child. These percentile statistics therefore exclude women who remain childless at the end of their reproductive life. The proportions childless are estimated at 22.5 per cent among women with a higher qualification and 15.2 per cent among women without a higher qualification. Very different age distributions are seen for the two groups. First births of women without a higher qualification are much more likely to occur earlier in their reproductive lives. One half of all mothers without a higher qualification have their first child by their 24th year, whereas the 24th year marks only the 10th percentile of entrants to motherhood among mothers with a higher qualification. Not until their 29th year did half of the higher qualified mothers have their first birth, fully five years later than those without a higher qualification. Entry to motherhood of women with higher qualifications is not, however, just pushed back. It is also concentrated within fewer years. Figure 2 Proportions of women having a first birth at given ages, by education, 1954–58 England and Wales Spring 2003 Proportion of first births to higher qualified mothers by age, 1954–1958 cohort England and Wales Proportion with higher qualification 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 15 20 25 30 35 Age attained in year 40 45 Source: Authors’ life table estimates from the LS. Proportion 0.08 0.07 This is seen most clearly in Figure 2, where their sharp peak in first childbearing at ages 27 and 28 is contrasted with a plateau extending across ages 18 to 24 for women without a higher qualification. One half of higher-qualified mothers give birth for the first time between the cohort’s 26th and 32nd years (see the 25th and 75th percentile ages in Table 1), as compared to the eight-year span between the 20th and 28th years for mothers without a higher qualification. 80 per cent of higherqualified mothers give birth for the first time between the cohort’s 24th and 36th years, as compared to the 14-year span between the 18th and 32nd years for mothers without a higher qualification. No higher educational qualification 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 Higher educational qualification 0.01 0.00 15 20 25 30 35 Age attained in year 40 45 Source: Authors’ regression estimates from the ONS Longitudinal Study (LS). Table 1 Percentile ages at first birth among those women who ever had a child, 1954–58 cohort England and Wales Percentile Age No higher educational qualifications 10 25 40 50 60 75 90 Percentage childless Higher educational qualifications 18 20 22 24 25 28 32 24 26 28 29 30 32 36 15.2% 22.5% Source: Authors’ life table calculations from the LS The very different age patterns of first childbearing between higherqualified and non-higher-qualified women (as seen in Figure 2) result also in very different proportions of all the first births at a given age that are to higher-qualified women (see Figure 3). Women without a higher qualification constitute the majority of first-time mothers at every age. However, the proportion of first-time mothers who had a higher qualification in 1991 rises rapidly through women’s 20s and early 30s. It reaches a peak at age 36, where 35.6 per cent of all firsttime mothers have a higher qualification. This compares to 5.8 per cent and 16.3 per cent of women having a first birth respectively in their 22nd and 25th years. The proportion of higher-qualified mothers falls somewhat through women’s late 30s and 40s. The numerical dominance of women without a higher qualification in the 1954–58 birth cohort, together with the more highly concentrated ages of first childbearing among higher-qualified women, produces this result. Second children by age when first child born and education In Figure 4, the proportions of mothers having a second birth in the years immediately following the first birth are shown for first births at age 25, 30 and 35. These are shown separately by woman’s education level. The first point in each line shows the proportion of women having a second birth in the same year as the first birth (‘0 years’ after the first birth), the second point shows the proportion having a second birth in the year immediately following the year of the first birth (‘1 year’ after the first birth), and so on. In each graph, a peak two years 21 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Figure 4 Spring 2003 Proportions of women having a birth in the years immediately following a previous birth at age 25, 30 or 35 by education, 1954–58 England and Wales a. second births Proportion 0.5 Proportion 0.20 b. third and higher order births 0.4 0.15 0.3 0.10 0.2 0.05 0.1 0.00 0.0 25 30 35 Age attained in year 40 25 45 30 35 Age attained in year 40 45 Higher educational qualifications No higher educational qualifications Source: Authors’ life table estimates from the LS. others (73.6 per cent versus 59.8 per cent), and both groups see fewer second children born within two years (respectively 51.7 per cent and 45.6 per cent). Very little second childbearing occurs more than five calendar years after the first, irrespective of the mother’s age at the first birth. For all three ages of first childbearing (age 25, 30 and 35) for both education levels, fewer than 10 per cent of all second children are born more than five calendar years after the first child. after the previous birth is seen for women at both education levels. That is, having a first and second child born two years apart is the modal pattern for both higher-qualified and other mothers. The proportions of first and second children born three years apart, though, increasingly approaches the proportion born two years apart as age at first childbearing increases. This coincides with a lower rate (“intensity”) of second childbearing as age at first childbearing moves from 25 to 30 and, more markedly, from 30 to 35. The parity progression ratios are plotted by single year of age at previous birth, from age 25 to age 36, in Figure 5. A noticeably slower rate of decline in parity progression with age is seen for the second births of higher-qualified women than for other women. Not until age 31 at entry to motherhood does the proportion having a second birth fall below 90 per cent (to 88.7 per cent). Meanwhile only 80.1 per cent of non-higher-qualified mothers entering motherhood in their 31st year go on to have a second child. The education differential in second childbearing continues to widen with age. Among women having a first child in their 36th year, 67.6 per cent with a higher qualification, versus only 53.1 per cent without one, go on to have a second child. An alternative perspective on this is to look at the proportions of women that do not go on to have a second birth. That is, one may ask what proportion of mothers give birth to an only child? These proportions The flatter graphs for women without a higher qualification and for women giving birth at later ages correspond both to a lower proportion of first-time mothers going on to a second child (the “parity progression ratio”), and to a slower arrival of the second child. These features are given numerical representation in Table 2. Around one-half of all second children are born within the first two calendar years after the first. Among higher-qualified women who have a first birth at age 25, 93.0 per cent go on to have a second birth, and 60.6 per cent of these will occur within the first two years following the year of the first child’s birth. Among non-higher-qualified first-time mothers, 90.8 per cent go on to have a second birth, and 53.4 per cent of these will occur within two years. For first-time mothers aged 35, the parity progression ratio is 13.8 percentage points higher for the higher-qualified than for Table 2 Proportions having a second birth within two and five calendar years following the first birth, by age at first birth and education, 1954–1958 cohort England and Wales No higher educational qualifications First birth at age Within 2 years Within 5 years Percentage having a second birth Higher educational qualifications First birth at age 25 30 35 25 30 35 0.534 0.927 0.489 0.919 0.456 0.936 0.606 0.952 0.567 0.947 0.517 0.952 93.0 83.5 59.8 96.0 90.8 73.6 Source: Authors’ life table calculations from the LS. National Statistics 22 Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 Third and subsequent children by age when previous child was born and education contrast suggests that socio-economic factors are operating more powerfully than are biological ones at least during women’s late 20s and early 30s. If anything, we would expect women who have so far had two or more children to be more fecund at any given age than women who have so far had only one child. Thus a more likely interpretation is that later childbearing (for example, age 30 versus age 25) is associated with a woman’s being much more likely to choose to stop at a second child, but not much more likely to stop at an only child. In our preliminary analyses of women’s propensities to have a third child after already having two, and to have a fourth-or-later child after already having three or more, no statistically reliable differences were found between the third and higher birth orders. Thus we combined later childbearing into a single category for “third and later births”. The results are seen first in Figure 4, where proportions by age of women going on to have a third or later child are presented alongside, but on a different scale from, proportions going on to have a second child. An earlier and stronger decline in the intensity of third-and-later childbearing with age is seen for both education levels. The contrast is especially great between higher-qualified women going on to their second child versus those going on to their third or later child. This A much weaker propensity to go on to have another child after already having two or more is also evident from the parity progression ratios shown in Figure 5. As with going on to a second birth, having a higher qualification is positively associated with progression to a third or higher birth at each age of birth of the previous child. The education differential for third and higher births, though, is smaller. Unlike for second births, the decline is steep throughout the ages 25 to 36 for both education groups. Thus for women without higher qualifications, around three in five go on to a further birth from a second-or-higher birth at age 25, but only two in five from a birth at age 30, and only one in five from a birth at age 35 (Table 3). The same pattern of decline with age is seen among higher-qualified women. Their parity may be obtained simply by subtracting each of the above percentages from 100. For example, only 11.3 per cent and 19.9 per cent of firsttime mothers in their 31st year, respectively with and without a higher qualification, will give birth to an only child, as opposed to respectively 32.4 per cent and 46.9 per cent of first-time mothers in their 36th year. Figure 5 Probability of progression to second birth by age at first birth and education, 1954–58 cohort England and Wales (a) progression to second birth (b) progression to third or higher birth Parity progression ratio 1.0 Parity progression ratio 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Age at first birth 33 34 35 25 36 No higher educational qualifications 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Age at previous birth 33 34 35 36 Higher educational qualifications Source: Authors’ life table estimates from the LS. Table 3 Proportions having a third or later birth within two and five calendar years following the previous births, by age at previous birth and education, 1954–1958 cohort England and Wales No higher educational qualifications Previous birth at age Higher educational qualifications Previous birth at age 25 30 35 25 30 35 Within 2 years Within 5 years 0.418 0.781 0.389 0.784 0.455 0.878 0.479 0.832 0.442 0.828 0.497 0.901 Pecentage having a next birth 58.4 37.7 19.2 61.8 43.3 24.7 Source: Authors’ life table calculations from the LS. 23 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 progression ratios fall from slightly more than three in five women at going on from a second-or-higher birth at age 25 down to one in four women going on from a second-or-higher birth at age 35. The weaker propensities among all women to go on to a third or higher birth after age 25 result also in longer spacing between these births than between first and second births (Table 3). Fewer than half occur within the two years immediately after the previous birth, and around one-fifth occur more than five years later for a second or higher-order birth occurring to a 25 or 30 year-old mother. Among the relatively few women having a next birth following a second-or-later birth at age 35, however, approaching half are within the next two years, and up to 90 per cent within five years. This latter result is expected from the combination of the reduced number of remaining years available for childbearing, and falling rates of childbearing associated with declining fecundity through the late 30s and early 40s. The combined effect of education on first and second childbearing The results described above point in two different directions with respect to the effect of obtaining a higher education qualification. Women who obtain a higher education qualification both delay their first birth and accelerate their second birth in comparison to women who do not obtain a higher qualification. We now ask what is likely to be the net effect of these two competing tendencies. To provide a complete answer, we would need to combine the full distribution of age at first childbearing with the probability of second childbearing given every possible age at first childbearing, something that the constraints on the present analyses do not allow. However, we may derive a partial answer by comparing the probabilities of second parity progression at given percentiles in the later half of the distributions of first childbearing among first childbearing women respectively with and without higher qualifications (from Table 2 and Figure 5). That is, we compare mothers who are “equally late” entrants to motherhood relative to other mothers in their education group. Specifically, we compare (1) higher-qualified mothers who have their first child at an age by which 60 per cent, 75 per cent and 90 per cent of higher-qualified mothers have already had their first child, with (2) nonhigher-qualified mothers who have their first child at an age by which 60 per cent, 75 per cent and 90 per cent of non-higher-qualified mothers have already had their first child. These are first-time mothers at ages 30, 32 and 36 for the higher-qualified, and at ages 25, 28 and 32 for those without higher qualifications. These comparisons target the women of each education group who are most likely not to go on to have a second child. As we noted above, one-child families will be more prevalent among women beginning motherhood later. The results from these comparisons show that stopping at only one child is substantially more prevalent among the later half of higher-qualified mothers than it is among the later half of other mothers. Percentages of one-child families among all mothers are estimated respectively at 9.2 per cent, 14.0 per cent and 32.4 per cent respectively for the 60th, 75th and 90th percentile ages for mothers with a higher qualification, and 7.0 per cent, 11.5 per cent and 24.0 per cent respectively for the 60th, 75th and 90th percentile ages for mothers without a higher qualification. We hesitate, however, to draw from these results an overall conclusion about the relationship between education and second childbearing, as differences in proportions of one-child families among earlier percentiles of mothers might still offset these differences from the later percentiles. Indeed, such an offsetting is suggested by analyses not presented here of 1954–58 cohort women aged between 39 to 44 at the 1998 and 2000 General Household Surveys. In these analyses, no clear differences by education in the proportion of only-child families among all families were detected. Further research is therefore needed to provide a firmer conclusion as to the overall relationship between higher education and having only one child versus having two or more children. National Statistics 24 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS In the present study, we analysed the family building, child by child, of women who were born in England and Wales in the late 1950s. This is the group of women who have most recently completed their reproductive lives. Dividing them into those who either did or did not obtain a higher-education qualification allows for an assessment of the fertility consequences of the postponing of family formation for educational and occupational advancement. Higher education and development of a career are widely considered to be major drivers of later ages at childbearing. As successively greater proportions of women attain higher qualifications, differences in eventual family sizes between women attaining and not attaining higher qualifications may also indicate likely forthcoming changes in family sizes in Britain. This is, of course, assuming a lack of change in the individual and societal circumstances that make family building more or less compatible with women’s educational and occupational progress. Our study’s findings first describe much later family formation among women progressing further with their education. One half of the higherqualified women who entered motherhood did so at or after the 29th year of their lives, while this half-way point of first childbearing was reached in the 24th year among mothers without a higher qualification. Attaining a higher qualification is not only associated with delayed first childbearing, but also with a greater likelihood of remaining childless. While the great majority of both groups of women eventually began a family, 22.5 per cent of higher-qualified women remained childless, versus only 15.2 per cent of non-higher-qualified women. This provides the first indication that the increasing education of successive cohorts may be associated with falling fertility. Countering this, however, is our finding that at any given age of first or subsequent birth, women with a higher qualification proceeded both more quickly and with greater likelihood to the second or next birth. For example, 72.8 per cent of higher-qualified women having a first birth in their 35th year went on to have a second birth, while only 59.1 per cent of non-higher-qualified women having a first birth in their 35th year did so. Thus as more women go on to obtain higher qualifications, and thus as more of the families formed in women’s late 20s or 30s are done so by higher-qualified women, the negative effects of later family formation on second childbearing are likely to be reduced. Our results for third and higher-order childbearing show a much weaker tendency to proceed further in family building for women at both education levels. Nevertheless more than one half of 25 year-old mothers of a second or later child, whether higher-qualified or nonhigher-qualified, go on to have a further birth. So do about two-fifths of those giving birth at age 30. Again, having a higher qualification is always associated with having a higher likelihood of having a next birth. The difference by education, however, is less than that for second births. A consistent result is thus found throughout our analyses: higher education is associated with faster and more likely next childbearing after age 25, for any given age at last childbearing. This result is similar to that previously found from analysis of British data from a period around ten years earlier. Moreover, our results indicate substantial similarity in the education-fertility relationship between British women after age 25 and women in the United States, Canada, Germany and Norway. A novel feature of our study is its attempt to discern a net effect of two opposing tendencies of the education and fertility relationship: (1) that of pushing second and later childbearing to older ages; and (2) that of accelerating the second and later childbearing from any given age at first childbearing. We explored the net effect with respect to having only one child versus having two-or-more children, among women Population Trends 111 becoming mothers at an age that is later than the average for their education level. We found here that the effect of higher qualifications on delaying entry to motherhood dominated the opposing effect of its accelerating second childbearing. That is, those higher-qualified women who became mothers later than average among all higher-qualified mothers were less likely to have a second child than were the later half of mothers without a higher qualification. Also pointing in the direction of later entry to motherhood among higher qualified women being associated with less childbearing is the evidence we presented for third and higher childbearing. Here we found both a smaller differential by education in third and higher childbearing than for second childbearing, and an earlier and more pronounced decline of third and later childbearing with mother’s age. Descriptive analyses of the nature of those presented here, however, do not allow us to draw strong conclusions about higher education as having a causal effect on parity progression. Indeed it has been argued by Kravdal15 in a study of Norwegian third births, and by Kreyenfeld in a study of German second births, that such a causal interpretation is not warranted. Instead, they argue, the positive correlation between education and third and second birth rates can be explained by highereducated mothers being more likely to have other characteristics that are associated with higher fertility. One such characteristic is their husband or partner’s education. Unless the associations between the education levels of mothers and these other characteristics change over time, though, the observed differences in fertility between women of different educational levels will persist, and this known relationship could therefore be useful in making assumptions about future trends in age- and education-specific fertility. Key findings ● ● ● ● ● ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors are grateful for comments from David Coleman and Heather Joshi on an earlier version of this article, and from participants at British Society for Population Studies and Quality Issues in Social Surveys seminar presentations. The authors are also grateful to the Nuffield Foundation for the funding of the project “Teenage Motherhood and Social Polarisation in Britain and France” under which the LS data were extracted, and to Kevin Lynch for preparing this extract. REFERENCES 1. Smallwood S. (2002) New estimates of trends in births by birth order in England and Wales. Population Trends 108, pp. 32–48. 2. Rindfuss RR, Morgan SP and Offutt K (1996). Education and the changing age pattern of American fertility: 1963–1989. Demography 33, pp.277–290. 3. For example, see Becker G (1991). A Treatise on the Family (2nd ed.). Harvard University Press: Cambridge. 4. Lesthaeghe R and Surkyn J (1998). Cultural dynamics and economic theories of fertility change. Population and Development Review 14, pp. 1–45. 5. Martin SP. Diverging fertility amongst U.S. women who delay childbearing past age 30. (2000). Demography 37, pp. 523–533. 6. Kravdal Ø. The emergence of a positive relation between education and third birth rates in Norway with supportive evidence from the United States. Population Studies 46, pp. 459–475. 7. Kreyenfeld M (2002). Time-squeeze, partner effect or selfselection? An investigation into the positive effect of women’s education on second birth risks in West Germany. Demographic Research vol. 7 article 2. www.demographic-research.org.uk. 8. Rahim A and Ram B (1993). Emerging patterns of child-spacing in Canada. Journal of Biosocial Science 25, pp. 155–167. Spring 2003 ● Among women born in England and Wales between 1954 and 1958, those who obtained a higher-education qualification began motherhood on average five years later than did women who did not obtain a higher qualification. The proportion of first-time mothers who have a higher qualification is much higher at later ages. For example, one third of those women who became mothers for the first time in their mid30s had a higher qualification, compared to one sixth of first-time mothers in their mid-20s. For any given age at first becoming a mother, having a higher qualification was associated with the faster and more likely arrival of a second child. For women either with or without higher qualifications, later age at entry to motherhood was associated with the slower and later arrival of a second child. Nevertheless, the proportions having a second child among those women who became mothers initially in their 30th year were still very high: 90.8 per cent among those with a higher qualification and 83.5 per cent among those without. These percentages fall, however, to 73.6 per cent and 59.8 per cent respectively for higherqualified and other first-time mothers at 35. Third and later childbearing was also faster and more likely for higher-qualified women than for non-higher-qualified women at any given age. The differential by education, however, was smaller than for second childbearing. Moreover, a faster decline in the proportions having a next birth with increasing age at previous birth was seen for third and later births than for second births. We compared proportions of mothers having just one child, between “equally late” higher-qualified and non-higher-qualified first-time mothers: those who became mothers at ages before which 60 per cent, 75 per cent and 90 per cent of eventual mothers in their same educational group had already become mothers. The results of this comparison were that higher-qualified later mothers were substantially more likely to have just one child than were non-higher-qualified later mothers. For example, one third of the 90th percentile age of higher-qualified mothers (36 year-old first-time mothers) had only one child, while only one quarter of the 90th percentile age of non-higher-qualified mothers (32 year-old firsttime mothers) had only one child. 9. Wright RE, Ermisch JF, Hinde PRA and Joshi HE (1988). The third Birth in Great Britain. Journal of Biosocial Science 20, pp. 489–496. 10 Ní Bhrolcháin M (1993). Recent fertility differentials in Britain. In Office of Population Censuses and Surveys New perspectives on fertility in Britain Studies in medical and population subjects no.55 HMSO: London. 11. Cigno A and Ermisch J (1989). A microeconomic analysis of the timing of births. European Economic Review 33, pp. 737–760. 12. Menken J (1985). Age and fertility: How late can you wait? Demography 22, pp. 469–483. 25 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 13. Hattersley L and Creeser R (1995). Office of Population Censuses and Surveys Longitudinal Study 1971-1991: History, organisation and quality of data Series LS no.7. HMSO: London. 14. See Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (1993) 1991 Census: Qualified Manpower, Great Britain volume 1, pp. 2–3. 15. Kravdal Ø (2001). The high fertility of college educated women in Norway: An artefact of the separate modelling of each parity transition. Demographic Research vol.5 article 6. www.demographic-research.org.uk. 16. See Werner B (1984). Fertility and family background: from the OPCS Longitudinal Study. Population Trends 35, pp. 5–10 and Babb P and Hattersley L (1992) An examination of the quality of LS data for fertility analysis LS User Guide 10. OPCS: London. 17. See note 1 above. 18. Handcock MS, Huovilainen S and Rendall MS (2000). Combining registration-system and survey data to estimate birth probabilities. Demography 37, pp. 187–192. 19. Chiang CL (1984). The life table and its applications. Krieger: Malabar, Florida. National Statistics 26 Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 How important are intergenerational cycles of teenage motherhood in England and Wales? A comparison with France Michael S. Rendall Population and Demography Division Office for National Statistics INTRODUCTION Teenage fertility has fallen substantially in every Western European country except the United Kingdom. This article examines the hypothesis that repetition of teenage motherhood from mother to daughter is a major cause of the UK being the exception. A simple demographic model of fertility across generations is estimated with comparable data from England and Wales and France. The main finding is that mother-daughter repetition can account for only a minor part of the total difference in teenage childbearing between the two countries, especially over the long term. The higher teenage childbearing in England and Wales of those whose mothers began childbearing after their teenage years dominates. The rates of teenage fertility in Britain stand well above those of other Western European countries.1 The trends, causes and consequences of teenage childbearing in Britain have been the subject of many studies2 and much policy concern.3 A frequently-expressed concern in countries with persistently high rates of teenage childbearing is that the phenomenon is self-perpetuating.4,5 That is, the daughters of teenage mothers become teenage mothers themselves, and the “cycle” thus continues from generation to generation. The present study investigates the quantitative importance of such cycles for Britain’s teenage childbearing. It does so by evaluating the demographic plausibility of the inter-generational cycle hypothesis to explain differences in teenage childbearing between France and Britain, as represented by England and Wales (here treated as one country). Comparison of England and Wales with France is of particular value firstly because of their marked divergence since the 1970s in prevalence of teenage childbearing, having followed parallel upward paths in teenage childbearing in the 1960s and early 1970s. From the late 1970s through the 1990s, sharply falling teenage childbearing in France has contrasted with persistently high teenage childbearing in Britain. Drawing a contrast between Britain and France may also have a wider generality due to the two countries’ representing two international sets of patterns (see Figure 1). France’s path of decline in teenage childbearing since the 1970s has proved to be the typical pattern of Western Europe, whereas the British pattern has been the exception. 6 Britain’s path has been similar, however, to the low- and mediumfertility countries of the English-speaking New World: United States, New Zealand, Australia and Canada.7 These countries, too, have seen levels of teenage childbearing persisting at rates well above those of continental Western Europe. The big question then is, why did England 27 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 and Wales follow the Anglo-New-World pattern and not that of the rest of Western Europe? Many explanations have been offered for the high levels of teenage childbearing in the English-speaking countries. These include their higher income inequality, the orientation of their welfare states towards providing for poor and unmarried mothers while adopting a largely laissez-faire approach towards other parents, and the ambivalence in their social attitudes towards contraception, sex education and mass communication about sexuality.8,9,10 The inter-generational cycle hypothesis gives a particular form of demographic impetus to such explanations. It implies that teenage motherhood becomes a selfperpetuating cycle once begun, repeating itself from one generation to the next. Not only are daughters of teenage mothers more likely to themselves start childbearing while teenagers, and so contribute more teenage mothers in the next generation. A combination of earlier and more lifetime childbearing among teenage mothers also implies that children of teenage mothers will be disproportionately more numerous among the next generation of fertility-exposed teenagers. To date, though, no study has investigated whether such intergenerational cycle effects could be powerful enough to explain much of the very large differences in levels of teenage childbearing between the English-speaking countries and those in continental Western Europe. It is as a first step in this direction that the present study investigates the demographic plausibility of the inter-generational cycle hypothesis to explain the diverging paths of France and England and Wales. It does so first by analysing the various demographic components required for an explanation based on the inter-generational cycle hypothesis, and second by simulating teenage and non-teenage childbearing across several generations under different combinations of the French and British values of the demographic components. The study’s outline is as follows. Firstly, the historical time series from 1951 to 2000 of all births and of the number and proportions that are to teenage mothers are compared between France and England and Wales. This comparison shows that the periods of high numbers of births (“baby booms”) in England and Wales and in France in the 1960s provided the demographic conditions for an “echo-boom” of teenage childbearing in the 1980s. The proportions of all births that were to teenage mothers were also high in the 1960s and early 1970s in both countries. The twin phenomena of large numbers of births and large proportions born to teenage mothers thus provide part of the conditions for an inter-generational teenage childbearing “echo” in the 1980s and early 1990s in both countries. Secondly, the teenage childbearing of women born to teenage mothers versus to mothers aged 20 and over is compared between the two countries. A strong correlation between mother’s and daughter’s teenage childbearing is found in both France and England and Wales. This provides a further component needed for an “echo boom” of intergenerational teenage childbearing. The analysis also, however, shows levels of teenage childbearing in England and Wales that are much higher than in France both for daughters of teenage mothers and for daughters of mothers in their 20s and above. Thirdly, a population model of teenage and non-teenage childbearing is constructed. This model is estimated using a plausible background demographic structure that allows for teenage mothers to have approximately three children, versus the two children of other women, and for teenage childbearing to occur on average nine years earlier than non-teenage childbearing (at age 18 compared to age 27). These background parameters are estimated from data on the French 1950s birth cohorts of teenage and non-teenage mothers. The model is run first for France, and then with successive substitutions of teenage National Statistics 28 Figure 1 Mean number of children born during teenage years in selected countries Births per 1,000 women 400 1970 1980 1990 2001 300 200 100 0 USA Austria England and Wales France Denmark Italy Sources: Observatoire Démographique Européen, Office for National Statistics. Notes: 1. For USA, France and Italy, data for the year 2000 are used in place of data for 2001. 2. The figures are calculated as the sum of single-year age-specific fertility rates below age 20 (defining age by age at last birthday) childbearing parameters of England and Wales. These parameters are first the historical birth trends, second the teenage fertility of daughters of teenage mothers only, and third the teenage fertility of daughters of other mothers. The resulting modelled patterns of teenage and nonteenage childbearing are projected over a period stretching from the late 1980s through 2040 to fully capture the nature of inter-generational dynamics. The primary objective of the simulations is to answer two competing questions: (1) Could France’s teenage childbearing have persisted as in England and Wales had France’s daughters of teenage mothers followed the same pattern of teenage childbearing as in England and Wales? (2) Could France’s teenage childbearing have persisted as in England and Wales only if France’s other daughters (those not born to a teenage mother) had also followed the same pattern of teenage childbearing as in England and Wales? The simulation also provides some insight into the effects of greater historical swings in England and Wales in numbers of teenage and total births and in proportions born to teenage mothers. The results of the simulations show all three factors (the teenage childbearing of those born to a teenage mother, the teenage childbearing of those born to a non-teenage mother, and the greater birth swings in England and Wales) have some influence on the divergent paths of teenage childbearing between the two countries. The most important factor, however, is the higher teenage childbearing in England and Wales of those not born themselves to a teenage mother. Population Trends 111 Figure 2 Spring 2003 Proportions of births to a teenage mother Per cent 12 England and Wales, unadjusted 10 8 England and Wales, adjusted France 6 4 2 0 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 Year 1981 1986 1991 1996 2000 Sources: INSEE, ONS, author’s calculations. Note: The “adjusted” series uses the French definition of age (age attained in the calender year) TEENAGE AND TOTAL CHILDBEARING IN BRITAIN AND FRANCE OVER THE PAST 50 YEARS This part of the analysis compares national birth registration data for France and England and Wales.11,12 Figure 2 displays the annual proportions of births to teenage mothers in France and in England and Wales over the second half of the 20th century. Because Britain and France use different definitions of age, also plotted is a series that adjusts the England and Wales proportions to match the definition of age used in France. Using a common definition of age has previously been shown to be very important for accurate cross-country comparisons of teenage fertility.13 While British demographers use age at last birthday (‘completed years’), French demographers use age attained in the current calendar year. The French definition of age is used throughout this study. The effect is to reduce the levels of teenage childbearing in Britain compared with the official published series. Under the French definition, births to 19 year olds refer to those women who give birth in the year of their 19th birthday. The effect is to reclassify out of “teenage motherhood” just over half of births to women who have past their 19th birthday but not yet their 20th (that is, 19 year-old mothers according to the British definition). Both countries saw a similar pattern of increase in the proportion of births to teenage mothers from the 1950s through the early 1970s. The increase was greater, however, in England and Wales, peaking at 8.71 per cent of all births in 1972. In France, a peak of 7.18 per cent of all births was observed in 1974. The patterns of decline after the respective peaks differed greatly. In France the proportion fell to a trough as low as 1.77 per cent in 1995, compared to a much higher trough of 5.05 per cent in England and Wales in 1994. By 2000, the French proportion had recovered slightly, such that births to teenage mothers represented 2.02 per cent of all births. In England and Wales, women who were teenage mothers under the French definition represented 6.06 per cent of all births in 2000, exactly three times as high as in France. This percentage translates to 7.58 per cent of all births in England and Wales being to mothers who have yet to reach their 20th birthday (the conventional definition of a teenage mother used on the English side of the Channel). The historical series of numbers of teenage births in the two countries are shown in Figure 3. These show a somewhat earlier, and also stronger growth in teenage childbearing in England and Wales than in France. The peak level was sustained slightly longer in France, where the number of births to teenage mothers peaked in 1973 at 60,453 births. This was almost exactly coincident with its peak proportion of births to teenage mothers, observed in 1974. In England and Wales, the peak number of births to teenage mothers occurred in 1966, at 69,348 births (again using the French definition). By 1972 in England and Wales, when the proportion of births to teenage mothers reached its peak, the number was already down to 63,225 and about to fall rapidly. By 1977, the number was 43,551, slightly below the 46,145 births to teenage mothers in France that year. From this point onwards, the decline stalled in England and Wales, with the number of births to teenage mothers fluctuating around 45,000 through until the end of the 1980s. Meanwhile, in France, the number of births to teenage mothers continued to decline sharply, so that by the end of the 1980s the number was less than half its 1977 value. The rises and falls in teenage births need to be understood also in the context of overall fertility trends (see Figure 4). Both countries experienced historically high annual numbers of births in the 1960s (“baby booms”). However, the 1960s births in England and Wales stand far above the annual numbers of births either before or after that decade. In France, the 1960s stand out much less. The much greater increase in numbers of birth from the 1950s to the 1960s in England and Wales compared to France simultaneously provided especially large absolute and relative numbers of teenagers at risk of childbearing in the 1980s in England and Wales. There was then a much stronger “baby bust” in England and Wales in the 1970s than in France. This will have resulted in a bigger fall in numbers of teenagers in the late 1980s and 1990s in England and Wales than in France, and so a downward impact on numbers of births to teenage mothers. Further, the 1970s baby bust in England and Wales will have increased the ratio of women in their 20s to those in their teens in the late 1980s and 1990s, pushing down even more the proportion of births to teenage mothers. France’s smoother pattern of rises from the 1950s and falls into the 1970s, on the other hand, will have led to a more even balance between numbers of teenage women and women in their 20s and 30s in the 1980s and 1990s. 29 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Figure 3 Spring 2003 Number of births to teenage mothers Teenage births 100 90 80 Thousands 70 60 England and Wales, unadjusted 50 40 England and Wales, adjusted 30 20 France 10 0 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 Year 1981 1986 1991 1996 2000 Sources: INSEE, ONS, author’s calculations. Note: The “adjusted” series uses the French definition of age (age attained in the calender year) Figure 4 Total number of births Total births 1,000 Thousands 900 800 France 700 England and Wales 600 500 1951 1956 1961 1966 Sources: INSEE, ONS National Statistics 30 1971 1976 Year 1981 1986 1991 1996 2000 Population Trends 111 The most important feature of this analysis of historical trends, however, is the coincidence in both countries of historically high numbers and proportions of births to teenage mothers in the 1960s and early 1970s. Both countries could thus be described as having been ripe for an “echoboom” of teenage childbearing to the daughters of the teenage mothers of the 1960s and early-1970s. For this to have occurred, though, the bulge in daughters of teenage mothers reaching their teens in the 1980s and early 1990s would need to have been combined with strong inter-generational correlations of teenage childbearing. INTER-GENERATIONAL CORRELATIONS OF TEENAGE CHILDBEARING Data and methods used to estimate the teenage motherhood of daughters of teenage and other mothers, in France and Britain, are described in Boxes one and two. Results are presented in Table 1. The likelihood of having a teenage birth in Britain is consistently 2 to 2.5 times higher for a daughter of a teenage mother. This holds whether the definition of a teenage mother based on age at first childbearing (as in the DiSalvo and Rosato studies described in Box two) or at the birth of the current daughter (as in the present study) is used. Significantly, this ratio of 2 to 2.5 times higher for a daughter of a teenage mother holds also for France. The levels of teenage childbearing in Britain are such that 26.1 per cent of daughters born to a teenage mother will themselves become a teenage mother. As many as 10.9 per cent of daughters born to a non-teenage mother will also become a teenage mother, however. This is higher than the percentage of teenage mothers among French daughters of teenage mothers (7.9 per cent). Only 3.7 per cent of daughters of non-teenage mothers in France have a child as a teenager. While the inter-generational teenage childbearing correlation is much higher in England and Wales in France more than three-quarters of daughters born to a teenage mother will not themselves become a teenage mother. In this sense, the inter-generational teenage fertility rates indicate a very weak degree of repetition from mother to daughter. Also noteworthy is that in France, rates for both daughters of teenage and other mothers are only one third as high as those in England and Wales. Further, daughters of non-teenage mothers in England and Wales are more likely to become teenage mothers than are daughters of teenage mothers in France. The present study’s LS results before adjusting for non-linkage are compared to those of the two previous studies cited above that use the LS. The results of the present study are seen to be very close to both those studies, despite the different time periods and definitions of being born to a teenage mother. The 1956–61 cohorts of Rosato’s study saw mean numbers of teenage children born to a teenage mother that are very close to the 1972–78 cohorts of the present study, while those for the 1966–71 cohort are somewhat lower. The 1956–65 cohorts of DiSalvo’s study saw proportions becoming teenage mothers among daughters of teenage and non-teenage mothers that are very similar to the proportions estimated for the present study’s 1972–80 birth cohorts. These results suggest there has been little change in the strength of the inter-generational correlations over the last two decades in England and Wales. The large sample sizes of daughters of teenage mothers in both the LS and EDP are methodologically noteworthy. In the EDP sample, 997 of the 1969 to 1975 French-born female cohorts present in the 1982 and 1990 Censuses were born to a teenage mother (that is, a teenager at the time of the EDP member’s birth). While 352 of the 1969 to 1975 cohorts became teenage mothers (that is, had any births as a teenager), only 56 of those were daughters of the 997 who were born to teenage mothers. Clearly then, a large dataset is required to obtain sufficient observations of such a demographically rare phenomenon as Spring 2003 Box one THE ENGLAND AND WALES LS AND FRENCH EDP DATA SOURCES The data source used to estimate the inter-generational teenage childbearing correlations for England and Wales is the ONS Longitudinal Study 14 (LS). In France, it is the French Demographic Panel, or EDP (Echantillon Démographique Permanent). 15 The structure and content of these two datasets are very similar. Both link women’s birth registrations, including of their own birth, and link them also to their Census records. In the files used for the present study, births to EDP members in the years 1968 to 1995 have been linked to their 1968, 1975, 1982, and 1990 Census records, and to their own birth record if after 1968. In the LS, 1971 to 1998 years of births are linked to LS members’ 1971, 1981, and 1991 Census records, and to their own birth record if after 1971. The EDP consistently links births for only half of their EDP sample, resulting in a 1 in 200 sample that may be used in fertility analyses. The LS links births for all LS female sample members, resulting in a 1 in 100 sample. The large number of observations in the LS and EDP greatly facilitates the study of childbearing among small subpopulations such as the daughters of teenage mothers. The long-running, panel nature of the data, moreover, permits the identification of intergenerational fertility. The LS and the EDP are especially useful for comparative research due to the similar length of time for which their data are compiled, and to the similarities of the two countries’ populations and their socioeconomic conditions. Previous studies have demonstrated their value in comparing migration 16, households 17 and fertility. 18 inter-generational teenage motherhood. Of the LS sample, 1,543 were born to a teenage mother. As many as 1,889 of the LS sample themselves became teenage mothers, 332 of them had teenage mothers. These higher numbers in the LS reflect both the persistently high levels of teenage childbearing across British birth cohort and that, procedurally, approximately twice as many LS females as EDP females have their birth records linked to their census records. A MOTHER-TO-DAUGHTER MODEL The inter-generational teenage childbearing correlations alone do not tell us whether inter-generational teenage fertility is of major importance for overall levels of teenage childbearing. To evaluate this, a model that incorporates the teenage childbearing of both daughters of teenage mothers and of daughters of older mothers is necessary. This is especially important given that, even in a population like England and Wales where teenage fertility is high, far more women are born to nonteenage mothers than are born to teenage mothers. For the model to adequately represent other demographic features of teenage motherhood, it is also necessary to take into account the faster reproduction that occurs when teenage childbearing in one generation is followed by teenage childbearing in the next, and for the higher completed fertility observed for teenage mothers than for women who begin childbearing later (or not at all). With these considerations in 31 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 Table 1 Box two LS AND EDP SAMPLES, DEFINITIONS AND ADJUSTMENT FOR NON-LINKAGE To estimate the intergenerational teenage fertility correlations, the present study uses 18,884 LS females born between 1972 and 1978, and compares them to 12,568 EDP members born between 1969 and 1975. Criteria for inclusion in the sample are that they are born in the country, and were present in the 1980s and 1990s Censuses (1981 and 1991 for Britain and 1982 and 1990 for France). Neither the LS nor EDP data, however, can be used accurately without dealing with the problem of incomplete linkage of births. An investigation of the quality of the LS fertility data conducted by Babb and Hattersley,19 following an earlier study by Werner, 20 found a linkage rate of between 83 per cent and 88 per cent in the 1981 to 1988 period. Analyses conducted for this study indicate that this linkage rate has been similar in the 1990s. Analyses of the EDP’s overall success in linking birth records conducted by the author for the present study found similar overall rates of non-linkage to those in the LS. The age pattern of omission is different in the EDP, however, with greater rates of omission at younger ages, and especially the teens. Thus it is important to apply appropriate corrections differentially across the two countries to account for these differences in non-linkage. This is done here assuming no interaction between undercount and mother’s teenage versus non-teenage age at the daughter’s birth. In defining “born to a teenage mother”, the birth record of the LS or EDP member herself is used. This identifies whether the mother was a teenage mother at the LS or EDP member’s own birth. This contrasts with definitions used by previous LS studies, which include also daughters of non-teenage mothers who started childbearing as teenagers. 21,22 DiSalvo examined the teenage fertility of LS females born in the years 1956 to 1965. Rosato examined the teenage fertility of the 1956 to 1961 and 1966 to 1971 LS birth cohorts. To infer whether the mother began her childbearing as a teenager, DiSalvo used 1971 marital fertility histories, while Rosato used the oldest child present in the 1971 and 1981 Censuses. These methods are not easily applied to the EDP data, due to the lack of family and household information available in the EDP from the 1968 Census. Thus the definition based on mother’s age at the LS or EDP member’s own birth is used to achieve comparability between the two countries. The more inclusive, “ever-teenage-mother” definition of DiSalvo and Rosato, however, is used in the simulation model, as is explained in that section. mind, a simple model of inter-generational teenage and non-teenage fertility that takes into account each of these factors is specified. The model is designed to allow for three paths of influence of intergenerational teenage fertility on overall teenage fertility. The first (‘repetition’) effect is through a higher probability of teenage childbearing among daughters born to ever-teen-mothers than among daughters born to never-teen-mothers. The second (‘timing’) effect is through a faster inter-generational rate of reproduction among teenage childbearers. The third (‘quantity’) effect is through a greater number of children born to ever-teenage mothers. National Statistics 32 Teenage fertility rates of daughters of teenage and non-teenage mothers in England and Wales and France A. Mean number of teenage births per woman England and Wales (LS) France (EDP) Rosato study’s 1956–61 cohorts Rosato study’s 1966–71 cohorts present study’s 1972–80 cohorts nonlinkageadjusted 1972-80 cohorts present study’s 1969–76 cohorts nonlinkageadjusted 1969–76 cohorts Cohort members with a teenage mother 0.244 0.217 0.252 0.261 0.054 0.088 Cohort members with a non-teenage mother 0.120 0.096 0.101 0.109 0.024 0.039 B. Percentage of women giving birth before age 20 Britain (LS) Cohort members with a teenage mother (Sample size) Cohort members with a non-teenage mother (Sample size) Sources: France (EDP) nonlinkageadjusted 1972–80 cohorts present study’s 1969–76 cohorts nonlinkageadjusted 1969–76 cohorts DiSalvo study’s 1956–65 cohorts present study’s 1972–80 cohorts 20.4 (5,896) 21.5 (1,543) 23.8 5.0 (1,119) 7.9 10.0 (33,554) 9.0 (17,341) 9.9 2.0 (13,146) 3.7 Rosato, M. (1999) and DiSalvo’s, P.M. (1992) (see citations in footnotes 21 and 22); Author’s calculations from the EDP and from LS tabulations provided by the LS Support Group. Notes: 1 Age is defined as age attained in the year in the present study, while it is defined in completed years in Rosato’s and DiSalvo’s studies. Whether mother was a teen mother is defined according to mother’s age at LS or EDP daughter’s birth in the present study, but according to mother’s age at presumed first childbearing in Rosato’s and DiSalvo’s studies. 2. Mean number of teenage births was calculated by multiplying Rosato’s annual teen birth rates by five (the number of years of exposure between ages 15 and 19). For the present study, it was calculated from real cohort experience. The modelling of the repetition effect takes advantage of the parameters estimated from the EDP and LS data as described in the previous section. The model, however, employs the less strict definition of intergenerational teenage motherhood to allow daughters of ever-teenagemothers to become teenage mothers at higher rates than never-teenage mothers, even for daughters born while the mother was no longer in her teens. These daughters of ever-teenage-mothers are modelled to become teenage mothers at the rates of daughters born to mother who was a teenager at the time of this daughter’s birth. This allows for the estimation of an upper bound of the influence of repetition of teenage childbearing on overall teenage childbearing. The timing and quantity effects of teenage childbearing in the model, on the other hand, are given more of a background role. That role is simply to allow for the effects of the large difference Britain’s and France’s between ‘repetition’ rates to play out in overall teenage and non-teenage childbearing. To incorporate timing differences into the model, the average ages of teenage and non-teenage childbearing are set to 18 and 27 respectively. These are approximately the French averages over the 1978 to 1995 period. From a modelling perspective, their being multiples of nine conveniently allows for a nine-year projection interval. Births in nine-year period t are projected by Population Trends 111 applying the teenage fertility rates to births in period t-2, and the nonteenage fertility rates to births in period t-3. The non-teenage childbearing of teenage childbearers in period t is projected by applying to the teenage mothers of period t-1 the constant mean number of children in a teenage mother’s non-teenage years. The assumptions for this component are clearly approximate only. The mean number estimated from French data is used equally for France and for England and Wales. Further, the average age of non-teenage fertility does not vary in the model according to whether the woman began childbearing as a teenage mother, whereas it is likely that ever-teenage mothers would also have lower average ages of non-teenage fertility. Thus the timing effect of inter-generational teenage fertility will be somewhat understated in the model. The largest reproductive age difference, however, will clearly be that between age at the teenage childbearing of ever-teenage mothers and age of (non-teenage) childbearing of never-teenage mothers. This difference is captured. With respect to ‘quantity’ effects of inter-generational teenage childbearing, the model incorporates the mean numbers of teenage births of a teenage mother respectively in Britain and France, and the mean numbers of non-teenage births respectively of ever-teenagemothers and of never-teenage-mothers (including those who remain childless) in France. These are estimated from the mean numbers of children born between ages 20 and 39 (the presumed oldest age of childbearing) among the EDP sample of women who were under 20 in 1969 to 1975. Thus these women are from the earlier, 1950s birth cohorts. Results are again adjusted for estimated non-linkage of births in the EDP. Among women who respectively were and were not born to a teenage mother, 1.866 and 2.054 non-teenage births are thereby estimated. Since the average number of teenage births to an ever-teenmother in France is estimated at 1.097, an ever-teen-mother will have a mean lifetime total of 2.963 births, or almost one lifetime birth in excess of that of a never-teen-mother (2.054). These lifetime mean numbers of children may be weighted by the proportions born respectively to a teenage mother and to an older mother among the 1950s cohorts in the two countries. This produces an aggregated 2.074 children per woman in France and 2.088 children per woman in England and Wales, the small difference being generated by the slightly larger percentage of teenage births in the 1950s in England and Wales. These are reasonably comparable to the estimates of completed fertility for the 1950s cohorts in the two countries. These were 2.13 children per woman in France and 2.02 in England and Wales.23 Further, the mean ages of childbearing of the 1950s cohorts in the two countries were close to the age 27 that the projection model assumes for the more than 90 per cent of children born in each country to a non-teenage mother. Subsequent cohorts in both countries, and especially in England and Wales, have seen trends towards later and fewer children. Because of these differences between the fertility parameters assumed for the projection model and the true fertility parameters, and because of the very simplified structure of the simulation model itself, none of the results of the projections can be interpreted as forecasts. Instead their value is in their interpretation as simulations that capture the main dynamics of teenage and non-teenage fertility from generation to generation, and of how those dynamics are influenced by differences in the teenage fertility of women respectively born to teenage mothers and non-teenage mothers. Inter-generational childbearing is simulated over a period of 54 years, from 1987 to 2040. The period of 1951 to 1986, divided into four nineyear subperiods, is used to establish the simulation model’s initial conditions. These are mothers’ teenage and non-teenage childbearing statuses in France or in England and Wales. Non-teenage births to ever-teenage-mothers are estimated by applying to the teenage births of Spring 2003 each subperiod the ratio of non-teenage births to teenage births estimated from the French 1950s cohorts as described above. Projection over subsequent generations of women is then performed from the 1960–68, and 1969–77 and 1978–86 base populations for six nine-year subperiods from 1987–95 through to 2032–40. The model is ‘single-sex’ in that no effect of bearing sons as a teenager is allowed for. Only daughters are considered. This has no direct distorting effect on the teenage proportion of all fertility, however, as only daughters are considered also among non-teenage births. Finally, the model takes no account of socioeconomic correlates of teenage and non-teenage fertility. While these will clearly play a strong role in influencing the teenage and non-teenage fertility parameters used in the model, just how they do so is beyond the scope of the present study. Simulation results to 1987–1995 and to 1996–2004 The first set of simulation results are presented in Figure 5 simulations I and II. Here the purpose is to evaluate the role of the differences in historical birth trends between the two countries. These are primarily the historically-higher proportions of teenage mothers in England and Wales than in France, and the larger swings in birth numbers around the peak 1960s decade of childbearing in England and Wales. The simulation model is first seen to reproduce reasonably well the observed proportions of births to teenage mothers in France (simulation I). The 2.18 per cent and 2.16 per cent projected proportions born to a teenage mother are approximately comparable to the 2.32 per cent and 2.03 per cent observed teenage births of Figure 2 (using the mid-period year 2000 to approximate the 1996–2004 period). The majority of teenage mothers are the daughters of women who were not themselves teenage mothers: 1.53 per cent both in the 2.18 per cent of 1987–95 and 2.16 per cent of 1996–2004. Those teenage mothers who were born to a mother in her teens make up only 0.27 per cent and 0.16 per cent of all births in the respective periods. Adding those teenage mothers born to a mother who began childbearing as a teenager gives an extra 0.39 per cent and 0.47 per cent of daughters of teenage mothers who may be counted among all teenage mothers in 1987–95 and 1996–2004. Substituting the French base population with that of England and Wales (simulation II) results in the daughters of teenage mothers accounting for a higher proportion of all teenage mothers. This is due to the higher proportions of teenage mothers among all mothers in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s base populations in England and Wales. Daughters of teenage mothers in 1987–95 and 1996–2004, however, still only account for 0.28 per cent and 0.27 per cent of all births in those respective periods on the strict definition (of having been born to a mother in her teens), and add only an extra 0.49 per cent and 0.58 per cent of daughters of teenage mothers when those teenage mothers born to a mother who began childbearing as a teenager are also included. The effect on the overall percentage of teenage mothers of substituting in the England and Wales base populations, however, is small and of different magnitude from one period to the next. For 1987–95, it results in a smaller overall percentage of teenage mothers (only 1.99 per cent of all births) than that produced when using the French base population (2.18 per cent of all births). This is due to the sharper decline in total births in the 1970s in England and Wales (seen in Figure 4), which led to a lower ratio of teenagers to women in their 20s in 1987–95 than in France in the same period. The England and Wales teenage childbearing rate of daughters of teenage mothers is next substituted into the model. Results are presented in simulation III. This involves the replacement of the 0.086 children on average born to daughters of teenage mothers in France 33 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Figure 5 Per cent 8 Spring 2003 Simulated proportions of births to teenage mothers, by own mother’s age at childbearing, 1987 to 2004 Simulation II France with England and Wales’ 1960s, 70s and 80s births Simulation I France 7 Simulation III France, with teenage fertility rate of England and Wales’ daughters of teenage mothers Simulation IV France, with teenage fertility rate of England and Wales’ daughters of teenage and non-teenage mothers 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1987–95 1996–2004 1987–95 1996–2004 1987–95 1996–2004 1987–95 1996–2004 Year Own mother was never a teenage mother Own mother was a teenager at this daughter’s birth Own mother began childbearing in teenage years, but was no longer a teenager at this daughter’s birth ("ever–teenage mother") Sources: Author’s simulations from INSEE and ONS data sources (see text) with the 0.261 children on average born to daughters of teenage mothers in England and Wales. The substitution is done using the French historical base population. The result is a tripling of the percentages of births to daughters of teenage mothers in both 1987– 1995 and 1996–2004, following directly from the England and Wales rate being triple that of France’s. The numbers involved are still relatively small, these inter-generational teenage births amounting to only 1.98 per cent of all births in 1987–1995 and 1.93 per cent of all births in 1996–2004. The total percentage of births to teenage mothers in France (including those of daughters of never-teenage-mothers) would then have been 3.51 per cent in 1987–1995 and 3.46 per cent in 1996–2004. These are considerably above the 2.32 per cent observed in France for 1987–1995 and the 2.16 per cent for 1996–2004, but still far below the England and Wales percentages of 5.94 per cent in 1987– 1995 and 6.06 per cent in 1996–2004. In the final simulation IV, the England and Wales teenage childbearing of daughters of never-teenage mothers (that is, those born to a mother whose childbearing began in her 20s or later) is additionally substituted in the model. This involves the replacement of the 0.040 children on average born to daughters of such mothers in France with the 0.109 children on average born to daughters of never-teenage mothers in England and Wales. This substitution, again done using French historical population parameters, makes a bigger difference to overall proportions of teenage births. Just as the previous substitution tripled the percentage of inter-generational teenage births, this substitution triples the percentage of other teenage births. The latter now amount to 4.01 per cent of all births in both 1987–1995 and 1996–2004. The total percentage of births to teenage mothers in France (including also intergenerational teenage births) would then have been 5.93 per cent in 1987–1995 and 5.87 per cent in 1996–2004, very similar to the observed England and Wales percentages of 5.94 per cent in 1987–1995 and 6.06 per cent in 2000. Thus substituting in the England and Wales teenage childbearing rates, of both daughters born to teenage mothers and daughters born to non-teenage mothers is sufficient, when applied to the French 1960s, 1970s and 1980s base population, to bring National Statistics 34 France’s proportion of births to teenage mothers from the mid-1980s to mid-2000s up to the levels observed in England and Wales. This result follows from France and England and Wales having had similarly favourable conditions for an echo boom of teenage childbearing in the 1980s and 1990s. When the Franco-British differences that are due to the rates of teenage childbearing respectively of daughters of teenage and nonteenage mothers are apportioned out, both are seen to contribute significantly to the overall difference in late 1980s to early 2000s teenage childbearing. In approximate terms, the difference between the 2 per cent of births to teenage mothers in France and the 6 per cent in England and Wales is bridged by about 1.5 per cent added when the daughters of ever-teenage mothers in France are given the England and Wales teenage fertility rates, and by about 2.5 per cent that is added when the daughters of never-teenage mothers in France are given the England and Wales teenage fertility rates. Thus England and Wales’ teenage childbearing that is not a repetition from one generation to the next accounts for the majority of the difference, but inter-generational repetition was nevertheless a substantial contributor to the overall difference. Simulation results from 2005–2013 to 2032–2040 Figure 6 presents the teenage childbearing simulations that are projected out from 2005–2013 through to 2032–2040. There are three different simulations, all using the French base populations. The simulations are numbered consistently with Figure 5. In simulation I, the model is run with French parameters (base populations and teenage childbearing rates) throughout. The England and Wales teenage childbearing rate of daughters of teenage mothers is substituted in the model whose results are presented in simulation III. The England and Wales teenage childbearing of daughters of never-teenage mothers is additionally substituted in the model whose results are presented in simulation IV. Population Trends 111 The main finding from these analyses is of the greater role of the teenage childbearing of daughters of non-teenage mothers in explaining the long-term trend of lower teenage childbearing in a population with France’s levels of teenage fertility as contrasted with those in a population with the levels of teenage fertility of England and Wales. France’s teenage-mother proportions of all births over 1987–2004 are sustained into the future by the continued application of the same teenage and non-teenage fertility rates into the future. The periods 2014–22 and 2023–31 each see a slightly lower 1.96 per cent of all births, while 2.30 per cent and 2.28 per cent are projected for 2005–13 and 2032–40. This three-period cycle of higher teenage fertility arises from the echo 27 years later of the birth swing that saw large numbers of French teenagers in the 1978–86 period. This swing is partly an artifact of the model structure, whereby all non-teenage births are forced to occur at age 27. The meaningful part of the swing, though, is that it shows that fluctuations in teenage fertility in a French-type population are not related to inter-generational correlations of teenage childbearing, but instead to the fluctuations in numbers of teenagers in a given period, irrespective of whether they were born to a teenage or (much more commonly) a non-teenage mother. When only the daughters of ever-teenage mothers in France are given the British teenage fertility rates (simulation III), the percentage of teenage mothers falls from that modelled for the 1987–1995 and 1996– 2004 periods (as seen in Figure 5). The periods 2014–22 and 2023–31 see 2.67 per cent and 2.68 per cent of all births to teenage mothers, while 3.08 per cent and 2.94 per cent are projected for 2005–13 and 2032–40. These falls from the 3.51 per cent in 1987–1995 and 3.46 per cent in 1996–2004 in this same simulation are entirely due to a fall in inter-generational teenage childbearing. The 1.98 per cent of all births in 1987–1995 and 1.93 per cent of all births in 1996–2004 that are teenage births to a daughter of an ever-teenage-mother fall steadily from 1.09 per cent in 2005–13 down to 0.92 per cent in 2032–40. That is, even with British rates of mother-daughter repetition of teenage childbearing, only 1 per cent of all births each year would be to Figure 6 Per cent 8 Spring 2003 daughters of a teenage mother were France’s rates of teenage motherhood among the daughters of non-teenage mothers to apply. When the daughters of never-teenage mothers in France are additionally given the British teenage fertility rates (Simulation IV), the overall percentage of teenage mothers is then sustained at approximately the England and Wales levels observed in the 1987–1995 and 1996–2004 periods. The periods 2014–22 and 2023–31 each see approximately comparable levels of 5.91 per cent and 6.02 per cent of all births, while 7.06 per cent and 7.02 per cent of 2005–13 and 2032–40 are produced by the continuation of the 27-year-apart echo of higher total numbers of teenagers at risk. Approximately two-thirds of these mothers of teenage children are born to never-teenage mothers, and one-third born to everteenage mothers. As an important caveat, the majority of this latter quantity are births to daughters whose mother began childbearing as a teenager but who was no longer a teenager at this daughter’s birth. The mean numbers of such births per woman who began childbearing as a teenager were estimated from French teenage mothers only. An earlier study24 in England and Wales estimated 26.5 per cent of all teenage births being to a daughter of an teenage mother under somewhat less favourable conditions for an inter-generational echo of intergenerational childbearing. Thus the proportion of the present study appears to be reasonable, though perhaps a little high. Taking as typical the periods 2014–22 and 2023–31, in approximate terms the difference between the 2 per cent of births to teenage mothers in France and the 6 per cent in England and Wales is bridged by about 0.7 per cent added when the daughters of ever-teenage mothers in France are given the British teenage fertility rates, and by about 3.3 per cent that is added when the daughters of never-teenage mothers in France are given the England and Wales teenage fertility rates. Thus England and Wales’ teenage childbearing that is not a repetition from one generation to the next accounts for about four-fifths of the difference, and inter-generational repetition only one-fifth of the difference between the two countries. Simulated proportions of births to teenage mothers, by own mother’s age at childbearing, 2005 to 2040 Simulation I France Simulation III France, with the teenage fertility rates of England and Wales’ daughters of teenage mothers 7 Simulation IV France, with teenage fertility rate of England and Wales’ daughters of teenage and non-teenage mothers 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2005–13 2014–22 2023–31 2032–40 2005–13 Own mother was never a teenage mother 2014–22 2023–31 Year 2032–40 Own mother was a teenager at this daughter’s birth 2005–13 2014–22 2023–31 Own mother began childbearing in teenage years, but no longer a teenager at this daughter’s birth ("ever–teenage mother") Sources: Author’s simulations from INSEE and ONS data sources (see text) 35 National Statistics 2032–40 Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 While the decline in the total teenage childbearing contribution of everteenage-mothers would be slowed somewhat by inter-generational teenage childbearing at British levels, eventually only the high teenage childbearing also of daughters of non-teenage mothers is able to prevent the decline in importance of inter-generational teenage childbearing. This latter result demonstrates that while England and Wales’ intergenerational fertility dynamics make inter-generational teenage motherhood a significant contributor to the high overall levels of teenage childbearing, its significance derives to a large extent from interaction with England and Wales’ high levels of teenage fertility among daughters of non-teenage mothers. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION This study set out to investigate the quantitative importance of intergenerational cycles of teenage childbearing (where daughter’s teenage childbearing follows mother’s) for Britain’s high overall teenage childbearing. It did so by evaluating the demographic plausibility of the inter-generational cycle hypothesis to explain differences between England and Wales and France. The French definition of age was used throughout this study, and this needs to be borne in mind when interpreting and comparing this study’s numerical results. The effect of the French definition is to reduce the levels of teenage childbearing as compared to those of published tabulations. Under the French definition, births to 19 year olds refer to those women who give birth in the year of their 19th birthday. This means, for example, that the 6.06 per cent of all births to teenage mothers in England and Wales as presented here translates to 7.58 per cent under the usual British definition of the teenage years. A review of the historical numbers of teenage births in the context of all births illustrated similar patterns in the two countries. Each saw “baby booms” in the 1960s that coincided with high proportions of teenage mothers among all births. These high teenage-mother proportions continued into the early 1970s in both countries. The twin phenomena of large numbers of births and large proportions born to teenage mothers thus provided part of the conditions for an inter-generational teenage childbearing “echo” in the 1980s and early 1990s in both countries. By 2000, however, the two countries had taken very different paths, such that the proportion of teenage mothers among all births were three times higher (at 6 per cent) in England and Wales than in France (at 2 per cent). In the long run, only about 1 per cent of all births in England and Wales would be inter-generational teenage births – that is, births to a teenage mother who was herself born to a teenage mother – if it wasn’t also for the higher teenage fertility in England and Wales among daughters of non-teenage mothers. With the higher teenage fertility in England and Wales among daughters of non-teenage mothers, about 2 per cent of all births in England and Wales, or up to one third of all teenage births, would be inter-generational teenage births. Only with the ongoing replenishment of the pool of teenage mothers from own mothers who began childbearing after their teenage years, however, can the 2 per cent level be sustained instead of dropping to a 1 per cent level. Without the ongoing replenishment of teenage mothers from families where the mother started childbearing after her teenage years, the overall proportion of teenage births in England and Wales would likely fall to a long-term level just under 3 per cent of all births (compared with around 2 per cent in France). This suggests that efforts to reduce the numbers of inter-generational “repeaters”, even if they were to be effective for this subgroup, would not do very much to reduce the overall level of teenage motherhood in England and Wales from its current 6 per cent of all births. To be effective on a substantial scale, efforts must reduce the teenage childbearing of a wider risk group that includes the daughters of nonteenage mothers. While inter-generational teenage childbearers are a significant group, they do not by themselves sustain more than a minor part of all teenage childbearing. Key findings ● ● To analyse how the Franco-British divergence occurred, simulation of teenage and non-teenage childbearing across generations was performed. Its results were described in two parts. First, the childbearing of the mid-1980s to mid-2000s was projected alternately from the French and British base populations (births to teenage and non-teenage mothers) of the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, and alternately substituting in the British teenage childbearing rates of daughters of teenage and non-teenage mothers for the French rates. Second, the simulations were projected out a further 36 years into the 21st century to fully capture the dynamic features of inter-generational teenage childbearing and other teenage and non-teenage childbearing. Results showed that in the short run, inter-generational teenage childbearing (the daughters of teenage mothers becoming teenage mothers themselves) can account for about one-third of the 4 per cent difference in proportion of teenage mothers in all births (2 per cent versus 6 per cent) between France and England and Wales. In the long run, however, inter-generational childbearing could account for only about one-fifth of the difference. The larger contribution in the shortrun can be interpreted as being due to the interaction of England and Wales’ higher teenage childbearing of daughters of non-teenage mothers with inter-generational teenage childbearing. This interaction is explained as follows. National Statistics 36 ● ● ● The 1960s and early 1970s saw peaks in numbers and proportions of births to teenage mothers in both England and Wales and France. These provided conditions favourable to an “echo” occurring 20 years later, in the form of greater numbers of births to teenage mothers and to the teenage daughters of teenage mothers (“inter-generational teenage births”) in both countries. In both England and Wales and France, the daughters of teenage mothers are more than twice as likely to become teenage mothers themselves than are the daughters of mothers in their 20s or older (“nonteenage mothers”). The daughters of both teenage and non-teenage mothers in England and Wales were more than three times more likely to become teenage mothers than were the daughters respectively of teenage and nonteenage mothers in France. The above combination of conditions resulted in a teenage childbearing “echo” occurring in England and Wales, but not in France. Up to one third of all teenage childbearing in England and Wales in the late 1980s through 1990s may have been to the daughters of teenage mothers. These still constitute, however, only about two per cent of all births. In the long-term, inter-generational teenage births would fall to only one per cent of all births, and overall teenage childbearing would halve, if it were not for the higher levels of teenage childbearing of the daughters of non-teenage mothers in England and Wales than in France. Population Trends 111 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author is grateful to Myer Glickman, Heather Joshi, David Pearce and Steve Smallwood for helpful comments on an earlier draft. Longitudinal Study (LS) analyses presented here use data provided by Kevin Lynch then of the LS Support Group at the Institute of Education, from data collections and files produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The equivalent French analyses presented here use French Demographic Panel (EDP) data collected and compiled by the Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), who generously provided the author with the on-site resources for access to those data. Historical numbers of teenage and all births in France were provided by Fabienne Daguet and Isabelle Robert-Bobée at INSEE. The teenage fertility rates for use in adjusting the LS estimates to the national teenage fertility rates were supplied by Alec Ross of the Centre for LS Information and User Support at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The data for the cross-national comparisons of teenage fertility in Figure 1 were provided by Jean-Paul Sardon at the Observatoire Démographique Européen. Detailed tabulations of teenage fertility in England and Wales were provided by Denis Till. Funding was provided by the Nuffield Foundation and the Institut National d’Etudes Demographiques (INED). 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Fertility and family background: from the OPCS Longitudinal Study. Population Trends 35, pp. 5–10. 21. DiSalvo P M (1992). Intergenerational patterns of teenage fertility in England and Wales. MSc thesis. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. 22. Rosato M (1999). Teenage fertility in England and Wales: trends in socioeconomic circumstances between the 1971 and 1981 Censuses. LS Working Paper 78. Office for National Statistics: London. 23. Pearce D, Cantisani G and Laihonen A (1999). Changes in fertility and family sizes in Europe. Population Trends 95, pp. 33–40. 24. See note 21. 1. Office for National Statistics (2003). Social Trends no.33, 2003 edition. TSO: London, p.49. 2. For example, Babb P (1993). Teenage conceptions and fertility in England and Wales, 1971–91. Population Trends 74, pp.12–17, and Kiernan K E (1997) Becoming a young parent: A longitudinal study of associated factors. British Journal of Sociology 3, pp. 406–428. 3. 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INSEE Departement de la Démographie: Paris. 37 National Statistics Health Statistics Quar terly Spring 99 Tables Table* Page Population 1.1 (1) 1.2 (2) International National 1.3 (4) Subnational 1.4 (6) Age and sex 1.5 (7) 1.6 (5) Age, sex and legal marital status Components of population change ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Selected countries Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Government Office Regions of England Constituent countries of the United Kingdom England and Wales Constituent countries of the United Kingdom 39 41 Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Constituent countries of the United Kingdom 49 England and Wales England and Wales 52 53 54 42 43 46 48 Vital statistics 2.1 (8) Summary 2.2 (new) Key demographic and health indicators ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ 51 Live births 3.1 (9) 3.2 (10) 3.3 (11) Age of mother Outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration Within marriage, within marriage to remarried women, age of mother and birth order ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ England and Wales Conceptions 4.1 (12) Age of woman at conception ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ England and Wales (residents) 55 Constituent countries of the United Kingdom 56 England and Wales Government Office Regions of England 57 58 United Kingdom United Kingdom United Kingdom 59 60 61 United Kingdom 62 England and Wales England and Wales England and Wales 63 64 65 Expectation of life 5.1 (13) (In years) at birth and selected age ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Deaths 6.1 (14) 6.2 (15) Age and sex Subnational ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ International migration 7.1 (18) 7.2 (19) 7.3 (20) Age and sex Country of last or next residence Citizenship ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Internal migration 8.1 (21) Movements within the United Kingdom ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Marriage and divorce 9.1 (22) 9.2 (23) 9.3 (24) First marriages: age and sex Remarriages: age, sex and previous marital status Divorces: age and sex ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ * Numbers in brackets indicate former table numbers in editions of Population Trends prior to spring 1999 (No. 95). Former tables 16 and 17 (Deaths by selected causes, and Abortions) now appear in Health Statistics Quarterly. StatBase ®: Population Trends tables are now available on StatBase® which can be accessed via our website: www.statistics.gov.uk Symbols .. : National Statistics 38 not available not applicable – p nil or less than half the final digit shown provisional 38 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 Population and vital rates: international Table 1.1 Selected countries Year Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand Austria ii Belgium ii Denmark ii Finland ii France ii Germany ii Greece ii Irish Republic ii Italy ii Luxembourg ii Netherlands ii Portugal ii Population (thousands) 1971 55,928 1976 56,216 1981 56,357 1986 56,684 1991 57,439 7,501 7,566 7,569 7,588 7,813 9,673 9,818 9,859 9,862 10,004 4,963 5,073 5,121 5,120 5,154 4,612 4,726 4,800 4,918 5,014 51,251 52,909 54,182 55,547 57,055 78,313 78,337 78,408 77,720 80,014 8,831 9,167 9,729 9,967 10,247 2,992 3,238 3,443 3,543 3,534 54,073 55,718 56,502 56,596 56,751 342 361 365 368 387 13,194 13,774 14,247 14,572 15,070 8,644 9,356 9,851 10,011 9,871 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 57,672 57,797 57,928 58,043 58,167 7,992 8,030 8,050 8,059 8,072 10,084 10,116 10,137 10,157 10,181 5,189 5,206 5,230 5,263 5,280 5,066 5,088 5,110 5,120 5,140 57,654 57,900 58,140 58,370 58,610 81,190 81,420 81,660 81,900 82,060 10,379 10,426 10,450 10,476 10,499 3,576 3,590 3,598 3,636 3,673 57,049 57,204 57,269 57,397 57,520 398 404 407 416 421 15,290 15,383 15,460 15,530 15,611 9,881 9,902 9,920 9,927 9,946 1998 1999 2000 2001 58,305 58,481 58,643 58,837 8,078 8.090 8,110 8,080 10,210 10,230 10,250 10,263 5,304 5,330 5,340 5,330 5,153 5,170 5,180 5,190 58,850 59,100 58,890 59,190 82,020 82,090 82,180 82,360 10,516 10,522 10,010 10,020 3,700 3,750 3,790 3,840 57,588 57,650 57,760 57,950 426 429 436 441 15,707 15,810 15,910 16,040 9,968 9,890 10,010 10,020 Population changes (per 1,000 per annum) 1971–76 1.0 1.7 3.0 1976–81 0.5 0.1 0.8 1981–86 1.2 0.5 0.1 1986–91 2.6 5.9 2.9 1991–96 2.1 6.3 3.1 4.4 1.9 0.0 1.3 4.2 4.9 3.1 4.9 3.9 3.8 6.5 4.8 5.0 5.4 4.6 0.1 0.2 –1.8 5.9 4.7 7.6 12.3 4.9 5.6 4.5 16.4 12.7 5.8 –0.5 3.6 6.1 2.8 0.3 0.5 2.3 10.7 2.5 1.8 10.2 14.9 8.8 6.9 4.6 6.8 6.1 16.5 10.6 3.2 –2.8 1.1 2.8 2.0 2.0 1.3 4.5 4.9 1.9 –1.9 2.5 3.3 1.9 1.9 4.1 4.2 – 3.6 5.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 2.2 1.6 0.6 –48.7 1.0 7.4 13.5 10.7 13.2 1.2 –1.5 4.5 3.3 11.9 7.0 16.3 11.5 6.1 6.6 6.3 8.2 2.2 –7.8 12.1 1.0 Live birth rate (per 1,000 per annum) 1971–75 14.1 13.3 1976–80 12.5 11.5 1981–85 12.9 12.0 1986–90 13.7 11.6 1991–95 13.2 11.8 13.4 12.5 12.0 12.1 12.0 14.6 12.0 10.2 11.5 13.1 13.1 13.6 13.4 12.7 12.9 16.0 14.1 14.2 13.8 12.7 10.5 10.5 10.7 9.8 10.9 15.8 15.6 13.3 10.6 9.9 22.2 21.3 19.2 15.8 14.0 16.0 12.6 10.6 9.8 9.6 11.6 11.2 11.6 12.2 13.3 14.9 12.6 12.2 12.8 12.8 20.3 17.9 14.5 11.9 11.4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.1 11.2 11.3 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.4 12.6 .. 11.8 11.5 11.1 11.2 11.0 10.8 12.6 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.2 .. 9.7 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.6 9.7 9.6 11.0 11.7 .. 13.9 14.4 14.5 14.2 14.3 15.1 9.2 9.3 9.0 9.1 9.3 .. 13.7 13.1 12.6 13.0 13.1 12.4 12.2 12.3 12.7 12.7 13.0 12.6 11.1 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.8 10.8 Death rate (per 1,000 per annum) 1971–75 11.8 12.6 1976–80 11.9 12.3 1981–85 11.7 12.0 1986–90 11.4 11.1 1991–95 11.1 10.4 12.1 11.6 11.4 10.8 10.4 10.1 10.5 11.1 11.5 11.9 9.5 9.3 9.3 9.8 9.8 10.7 10.2 10.1 9.5 9.1 12.3 12.2 12.0 11.6 10.8 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.5 11.0 10.2 9.4 9.1 8.8 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.7 12.2 11.5 11.2 10.5 9.8 8.3 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.8 11.0 10.1 9.6 9.6 10.4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.2 10.2 11.6 11.3 11.0 11.1 10.9 .. 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.0 9.2 9.2 9.1 .. 10.8 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.8 10.5 .. 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.2 7.8 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.8 9.7 .. 9.4 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.6 7.2 8.9 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.8 8.8 10.8 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.6 10.4 1997–98 1998–99 1999–2000 2000–01 United Kingdom i 1 2.5 3.2 2.1 3.1 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.0 11.6 11.4 11.0 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.4 10.2 0.7 1.5 2.5 –3.7 11.0 10.4 10.1 9.7 9.6 9.2 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.3 9.1 Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding. Population estimated as follows: i At 30 June. ii Estimated mid-year population at latest available date, as given in Council of Europe report: Recent Demographic Developments in Europe. iii The European Union consists of 15 member countries (EU15); live birth rates and death rates as given in Eurostat report, Demographic Statistics. iv At 1 July as given in the United Nations Demographic Yearbook or United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. 1 Including former GDR throughout. 2 Estimates prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations – excludes Hong Kong. 3 Rates are based on births to, or deaths of, Japanese nationals only. 4 Rates are for 1990–1995. 5 Estimates prepared by Eurostat. 6 Including Hong Kong. 7 Including the Indian held part of Jammu and Kashmir, the final status of which has not yet been determined. . . Figures not available. p Provisional 39 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Table 1.1 continued Spring 2003 Population and vital rates: international Selected countries Year Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand Spain ii India 7 iv Japan3 iv Sweden ii European Union iii Russian Federation ii Australia iv Canada iv New Zealand iv China iv Population (thousands) 1971 34,216 1976 36,118 1981 37,741 1986 38,536 1991 38,920 8,098 8,222 8,320 8,370 8,617 342,631 350,598 356,494 359,418 365,923 130,934 135,027 139,225 144,154 147,885 13,067 14,033 14,923 16,018 17,284 22,026 23,517 24,900 26,204 28,030 2,899 3,163 3,195 3,317 3,480 852,290 937,170 1,008,460 1,086,733 1,170,100 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 39,086 39,149 39,210 39,270 39,323 8,719 8,781 8,830 8,841 8,846 369,254 370,424 371,429 372,438 373,386 148,146 147,968 147,939 147,373 146,938 17,667 17,855 18,072 18,311 18,520 28,700 29,040 29,350 29,670 29,990 3,550 3,600 3,660 3,710 3,760 1,195,660 1,207,580 1,236,700 1,246,240 1,242,800 2 1998 1999 2000 2001 39,371 39,420 39,470 40,270 8,851 8,854 8,862 8,833 374,091 374,720 374,852 376,714 146,534 146,328 145,560 144,819 18,730 18,970 19,160 19,490 30,250 30,490 30,770 31,110 3,790 3,810 3,830 3,850 1,253,900 1,264,770 1,275,130 1,284,970 2 Population changes (per 1,000 per annum) 1971–76 11.1 3.1 1976–81 9.0 2.1 1981–86 4.2 1.2 1986–91 2.0 5.9 1991–96 1.8 5.2 4.7 3.4 1.6 3.6 3.6 6.3 6.2 7.1 5.2 0.7 14.8 12.7 14.7 15.8 11.9 13.5 11.8 10.5 13.9 11.7 18.2 2.0 7.6 9.8 13.2 19.9 15.2 15.5 15.3 13.0 23.9 18.8 27.3 22.1 20.6 15.1 8.5 6.4 3.8 6.1 10.0 10.9 9.3 9.9 10.2 1997–98 1998–99 1999–2000 2000–01 0.6 0.3 0.9 2.4 1.9 1.7 0.4 5.0 –2.7 –1.4 –5.2 –5.1 11.3 12.8 10.0 17.2 8.7 7.9 8.5 11.0 8.0 5.3 5.2 5.2 8.9 8.7 8.2 7.7 –24.4 16.1 15.7 15.4 2.7 0.7 2.9 3.7 8.5 8.8 9.4 34.7 Live birth rate (per 1,000 per annum) 1971–75 19.2 13.5 1976–80 17.1 11.6 1981–85 12.8 11.3 1986–90 10.8 13.2 1991–95 9.8 13.3 14.7 13.1 12.2 12.0 9.7 .. .. .. .. 10.2 18.8 15.7 15.6 15.1 .. 15.9 15.5 15.1 14.8 .. 20.4 16.8 15.8 17.1 .. 27.2 18.6 19.2 .. 18.5 4 35.6 33.4 .. .. .. 18.6 14.9 12.6 10.6 .. 15.3 15.2 15.7 16.0 .. 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 10.8 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.2 .. 10.8 10.8 10.7 .. .. .. 8.8 8.6 8.8 8.3 8.7 9.1 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.1 13.0 12.6 12.2 11.9 .. .. .. .. 15.4 15.4 14.6 15.0 14.8 .. 9.8 9.1 8.1 7.8 8.1 7.2 27.3 .. .. .. .. .. 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.4 .. 14.7 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.7 .. Death rate (per 1,000 per annum) 1971–75 8.5 1976–80 8.0 1981–85 7.7 1986–90 8.2 1991–95 8.7 10.5 10.9 11.0 11.1 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.0 .. .. .. .. 13.7 8.2 7.6 7.3 7.2 .. 7.4 7.2 7.0 7.3 .. 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.2 .. 7.3 6.6 6.7 .. .. 15.5 13.8 .. .. .. 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.4 .. 9.1 8.7 8.6 8.7 .. 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.5 .. 10.0 9.8 9.9 .. .. .. 14.1 13.7 13.6 14.7 15.3 15.6 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.2 .. .. .. .. 7.6 7.3 6.9 7.4 7.0 .. 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 8.9 .. .. .. .. 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.8 7.6 .. 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.8 8.7 .. .. 1.2 1.2 1.3 20.3 9.2 9.4 9.3 9.6 9.9 .. 8.9 8.9 9.1 9.1 9.3 .. 5 5 Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding. Population estimated as follows: i At 30 June. ii Estimated mid-year population at latest available date, as given in Council of Europe report: Recent Demographic Developments in Europe. iii The European Union consists of 15 member countries (EU15); live birth rates and death rates as given in Eurostat report, Demographic Statistics. iv At 1 July as given in the United Nations Demographic Yearbook or United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. National Statistics 40 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 USA iv 551,311 617,248 675,185 767,199 851,900 105,145 113,094 117,902 121,672 123,964 207,661 218,035 229,958 240,680 252,618 886,250 903,940 921,990 939,540 955,220 124,829 125,178 125,472 127,761 126,070 258,080 260,602 263,040 265,460 268,010 126,410 126,650 2 126,870 127,340 270,300 272,690 275,260 2 284,800 970,930 986,610 1,002,140 1,017,540 1 Including former GDR throughout. 2 Estimates prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations – excludes Hong Kong. 3 Rates are based on births to, or deaths of, Japanese nationals only. 4 Rates are for 1990–1995. 5 Estimates prepared by Eurostat. 6 Including Hong Kong. 7 Including the Indian held part of Jammu and Kashmir, the final status of which has not yet been determined. . . Figures not available. p Provisional Population Trends 111 Table 1.2 Spring 2003 Population: national Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Mid-year Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution United Kingdom Great Britain England and Wales England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Estimates 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 55,928 56,216 56,357 56,684 57,439 54,388 54,693 54,815 55,110 55,831 49,152 49,459 49,634 49,999 50,748 46,412 46,660 46,821 47,188 47,875 2,740 2,799 2,813 2,811 2,873 5,236 5,233 5,180 5,112 5,083 1,540 1,524 1,543 1,574 1,607 1993 1994 1995 1996 57,672 57,797 57,928 58,043 56,037 56,154 56,279 56,381 50,944 51,051 51,175 51,289 48,063 48,166 48,290 48,402 2,882 2,885 2,885 2,887 5,092 5,102 5,104 5,092 1,636 1,644 1,649 1,662 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 58,167 58,305 58,481 58,643 58,837 56,496 56,627 56,802 56,960 57,149 51,413 51,550 51,730 51,897 52,084 48,523 48,658 48,836 48,997 49,181 2,890 2,893 2,894 2,900 2,903 5,083 5,077 5,072 5,063 5,064 1,671 1,678 1,679 1,683 1,689 5.9 14.2 40.1 21.3 10.9 7.5 5.9 14.2 40.1 21.4 10.9 7.6 5.9 14.2 40.0 21.4 10.9 7.6 5.9 14.2 40.2 21.3 10.8 7.6 5.8 14.5 37.4 22.3 11.8 8.3 5.5 13.7 40.4 21.8 11.5 7.1 6.8 16.7 41.7 19.3 9.6 6.0 59,657 60,524 61,459 62,386 57,943 58,789 59,705 60,617 52,920 53,806 54,762 55,722 49,994 50,859 51,790 52,725 2,926 2,947 2,972 2,997 5,023 4,983 4,943 4,895 1,714 1,735 1,754 1,769 5.7 12.3 36.2 26.3 10.5 9.0 5.7 12.3 36.2 26.3 10.5 9.0 5.7 12.3 36.3 26.2 10.4 9.0 5.7 12.3 36.4 26.2 10.4 9.0 5.5 12.3 34.5 25.9 11.6 10.0 5.1 11.3 35.0 28.1 11.4 9.2 5.9 13.3 36.5 26.5 9.8 8.1 of which (percentages) 0–4 5–15 16–44 45–64M/59F 65M/60F–74 75 and over Projections1 2006 2011 2016 2021 of which (percentages) 0–4 5–15 16–44 45–64 2 65–74 2 75 and over Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding. 1 ’Interim‘ national projections based on the mid-2001 population estimates. 2 Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes. 41 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Table 1.3 Spring 2003 Population: subnational Government Office Regions of England 1 Mid-year Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution North East North West Yorkshire and the Humber East Midlands West Midlands East London South East South West Estimates 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 2,679 2,671 2,636 2,594 2,587 7,108 7,043 6,940 6,833 6,843 4,902 4,924 4,918 4,884 4,936 3,652 3,774 3,853 3,908 4,011 5,146 5,178 5,187 5,180 5,230 4,454 4,672 4,854 4,999 5,121 7,529 7,089 6,806 6,774 6,829 6,830 7,029 7,245 7,468 7,629 4,112 4,280 4,381 4,548 4,688 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 2,589 2,589 2,582 2,573 2,564 6,835 6,836 6,823 6,809 6,787 4,948 4,955 4,958 4,957 4,954 4,035 4,053 4,070 4,089 4,105 5,237 5,246 5,248 5,255 5,260 5,142 5,152 5,177 5,205 5,236 6,823 6,832 6,844 6,860 6,901 7,656 7,672 7,711 7,764 7,805 4,711 4,729 4,753 4,778 4,789 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2,554 2,544 2,531 2,523 2,517 6,769 6,762 6,738 6,737 6,732 4,951 4,950 4,947 4,950 4,967 4,116 4,125 4,144 4,157 4,175 5,261 5,267 5,265 5,260 5,267 5,270 5,306 5,341 5,375 5,395 6,928 6,969 7,041 7,104 7,188 7,857 7,891 7,955 7,982 8,007 4,819 4,843 4,874 4,909 4,934 5.5 14.2 39.1 21.9 11.8 7.5 5.8 14.8 39.2 21.6 11.2 7.4 5.9 14.6 39.5 21.4 11.1 7.6 5.7 14.3 39.2 22.1 11.0 7.6 6.0 14.8 39.0 21.6 11.1 7.4 6.0 14.1 38.9 22.1 11.1 7.8 6.7 13.5 47.4 18.0 8.5 5.9 5.9 14.0 39.4 21.9 10.8 8.0 5.5 13.6 37.1 22.6 12.1 9.3 2,579 2,555 2,536 2,521 2,509 6,871 6,843 6,820 6,813 6,808 5,071 5,098 5,130 5,165 5,200 4,234 4,312 4,384 4,455 4,523 5,343 5,358 5,372 5,391 5,411 5,448 5,582 5,702 5,823 5,941 7,215 7,337 7,470 7,609 7,736 8,134 8,344 8,534 8,722 8,905 4,977 5,098 5,213 5,333 5,452 5.4 12.1 35.1 27.7 11.2 8.4 5.7 12.4 35.4 27.5 10.6 8.4 5.6 12.2 35.9 27.3 10.6 8.4 5.4 12.0 35.1 27.4 11.1 9.0 5.7 12.5 34.9 27.3 10.7 8.9 5.5 12.1 34.5 27.2 11.2 9.5 6.4 12.5 41.5 26.3 7.7 5.6 5.4 12.1 34.9 27.4 10.9 9.3 4.9 11.2 32.8 27.8 12.4 10.8 of which (percentages) 0–4 5–15 16–44 45–64M/59F 65M/60F–74 75 and over Projections2 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 of which (percentages)4 0–4 5–15 16–44 45–64 3 65–74 3 75 and over Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding. 1 From 1 April 2002 there are four Directorates of Health and Social Care (DHSCs) within the Department of Health.The GORs sit within the DHSCs as follows: North East, North West, Yorkshire and The Humber GORs are within North DHSC, East Midlands, West Midlands and East GORs are within Midlands and Eastern DHSC, London GOR equates to London DHSC and South East and South West GORs are within South DHSC. See ‘In brief’ Health Statistics Quarterly number 15 for further details of changes to Health Areas. 2 These projections are based on the mid-1996 population estimates and are consistent with the 1996-based national projections produced by the Government Actuary’s Department. 3 Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes. 4 The percentages shown in this table are correct and show the proportion in each age group for 2021. These replace the percentage figures shown in Health Statistics Quarterly numbers 01, 02 and 03, and Population Trends 95 and 96, which were miscalculated. See Notes to tables on page 66. National Statistics 42 Population Trends 111 Table 1.4 Spring 2003 Population: age and sex Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Numbers (thousands) Age group Mid-year All ages Under 1 1–4 5–14 15–24 25–34 35–44 United Kingdom Persons 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 55,928 56,216 56,357 56,684 57,439 58,043 899 677 730 748 790 719 3,654 3,043 2,726 2,886 3,077 3,020 8,916 9.176 8,147 7,143 7,141 7,524 8,144 8.126 9,019 9,200 8,168 7,182 6,971 7,868 8,010 8,007 8,898 9,094 6,512 6,361 6,774 7,711 7,918 7,956 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 58,167 58,305 58,481 58,643 58,837 734 713 704 681 662 2,954 2,929 2,896 2,867 2,815 7,604 7,654 7,687 7,653 7,614 7,064 6,993 7,019 7,080 7,228 9,014 8,878 8,697 8,523 8,332 Males 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 27,167 27,360 27.412 27,542 27,909 28,182 461 348 374 384 403 369 1,874 1,564 1,400 1,478 1,572 1,548 4,576 4,711 4,184 3,664 3,655 3,843 4,137 4,145 4,596 4,663 4,146 3,601 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 28,244 28,310 28,406 28,491 28,611 376 365 361 349 338 1,515 1,502 1,485 1,468 1,443 3,887 3,915 3,934 3,920 3,901 Females 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 28,761 28,856 28,946 29,142 29,530 29,861 437 330 356 364 387 350 1,779 1,479 1,327 1,408 1,505 1,473 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 29,924 29,995 30,075 30,153 30,225 358 348 343 332 324 England and Wales Persons 1971 49,152 1976 49,459 1981 49,634 1986 49,999 1991 50,748 1996 51,289 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 45–59 60–64 65–74 75–84 85–89 90 and over Under 16 10,202 9,836 9,540 9,212 9,500 10,551 3,222 3,131 2,935 3,069 2,888 2,782 4,764 5,112 5,195 5,020 5,067 5,061 2,159 2,348 2,677 2,971 3,119 3,127 358 390 .. 716 626 710 127 147 .. .. 248 317 14,257 13,797 12,543 11,645 11,685 11,996 32,548 32,757 33,780 34,725 35,197 35,408 9,123 9,663 10,035 10,313 10,557 10,639 8,115 8,284 8,464 8,655 8,804 10,655 10,762 10,875 10,992 11,144 2,795 2,833 2,874 2,897 2,880 5,009 4,973 4,941 4,933 4,940 3,178 3,209 3,226 3,244 3,290 720 735 745 755 753 328 344 353 363 376 11,996 12,008 12,012 11,955 11,855 35,508 35,591 35,736 35,914 36,154 10,663 10,706 10,733 10,774 10,828 3,530 3,981 4,035 4,022 4,432 4,505 3,271 3,214 3,409 3,864 3,949 3,953 4,970 4,820 4,711 4,572 4,732 5,243 1,507 1,466 1,376 1,463 1,390 1,358 1,999 2,204 2,264 2,206 2,272 2,309 716 775 922 1,060 1,146 1,187 97 101 .. 166 166 201 29 31 .. .. 46 65 7,318 7,083 6,439 5,968 5,976 6,130 17,008 17.167 17,646 18,142 18,303 18,290 2,841 3,111 3,327 3,432 3,768 3,762 3,535 3,500 3,518 3,559 3,648 4,455 4,376 4,275 4,179 4,083 4,029 4,108 4,192 4,279 4,347 5,291 5,340 5,393 5,446 5,520 1,366 1,387 1,408 1,418 1,409 2,297 2,291 2,286 2,291 2,304 1,217 1,239 1,257 1,276 1,306 207 215 220 225 227 68 73 77 80 85 6,136 6,145 6,150 6,124 6,073 18,319 18,348 18,415 18,901 18,616 3,789 3,818 3,840 3,872 3,922 4,340 4,465 3,963 3,480 3,487 3,681 4,008 3,980 4,423 4,538 4,021 3,581 3,441 3,887 3,975 3,985 4,466 4,589 3,241 3,147 3,365 3,847 3,968 4,003 5,231 5,015 4,829 4,639 4,769 5,307 1,715 1,665 1,559 1,606 1,498 1,424 2,765 2,908 2,931 2,814 2,795 2,751 1,443 1,573 1,756 1,911 1,972 1,941 261 289 .. 550 460 509 97 116 .. .. 202 252 6,938 6,714 6,104 5,678 5,709 5,866 15,540 15,590 16,134 16,583 16,894 17,118 6,282 6,552 6,708 6,881 6,927 6,877 1,439 1,427 1,411 1,398 1,372 3,716 3,739 3,753 3,733 3,713 3,528 3,493 3,501 3,521 3,579 4,559 4,502 4,422 4,344 4,249 4,086 4,177 4,271 4,376 4,457 5,364 5,422 5,482 5,546 5,624 1,429 1,446 1,467 1,479 1,470 2,712 2,682 2,655 2,643 2,636 1,961 1,969 1,969 1,968 1,983 513 520 525 529 525 260 271 277 283 291 5,860 5,863 5,862 5,831 5,781 17,190 17,244 17,321 17,419 17,538 6,874 6,888 6,892 6,902 6,906 782 585 634 654 698 636 3,170 2,642 2,372 2,522 2,713 2,670 7,705 7,967 7,085 6,226 6,248 6,616 7,117 7,077 7,873 8,061 7,165 6,287 6,164 6,979 7,086 7,052 7,862 8,038 5,736 5,608 5,996 6,856 7,022 7,015 9,034 8,707 8,433 8,136 8,407 9,360 2,853 2,777 2,607 2,725 2,553 2,454 4,228 4,540 4,619 4,470 4,506 4,490 1,926 2,093 2,388 2,655 2,790 2,799 323 351 383 461 561 638 115 135 157 182 223 285 12,334 11,973 10,910 10,161 10,247 10,562 28,710 28,894 29,796 30,647 31,101 31,263 8,108 8,593 8,928 9,190 9,400 9,464 51,413 51,550 51,730 51,897 52,084 650 632 625 606 589 2,613 2,593 2,565 2,542 2,497 6,694 6,745 6,782 6,758 6,730 6,184 6,125 6,157 6,216 6,355 7,971 7,855 7,702 7,559 7,394 7,153 7,304 7,464 7,637 7,775 9,453 9,547 9,644 9,746 9,874 2,467 2,501 2,539 2,561 2,544 4,440 4,406 4,375 4,365 4,370 2,845 2,872 2,887 2,902 2,941 647 660 670 679 677 296 310 319 328 339 10,572 10,594 10,609 10,567 10,487 31,357 31,436 31,579 31,753 31,976 9,483 9,520 9,542 9,578 9,622 Males 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 23,897 24,089 24,160 24,311 24,681 24,924 402 300 324 335 356 327 1,626 1,358 1,218 1,292 1,385 1,369 3,957 4,091 3,639 3,194 3,198 3,379 3,615 3,610 4,011 4,083 3,638 3,150 3,129 3,532 3,569 3,542 3,920 3,985 2,891 2,843 3,024 3,438 3,504 3,489 4,414 4,280 4,178 4,053 4,199 4,658 1,337 1,304 1,227 1,302 1,234 1,203 1,778 1,963 2,020 1,972 2,027 2,058 637 690 825 951 1,029 1,067 86 91 94 115 150 182 26 29 32 35 42 59 6,334 6,148 5,601 5,208 5,240 5,397 15,036 15,169 15,589 16,031 16,193 16,162 2,527 2,773 2,970 3,072 3,248 3,365 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 24,986 25,052 25,151 25,238 25,355 333 323 320 310 301 1,341 1,330 1,315 1,302 1,279 3,422 3,450 3,471 3,462 3,448 3,093 3,064 3,086 3,125 3,208 3,943 3,875 3,789 3,709 3,627 3,555 3,626 3,703 3,783 3,847 4,700 4,742 4,786 4,831 4,893 1,211 1,229 1,248 1,257 1,249 2,045 2,039 2,033 2,037 2,048 1,094 1,115 1,131 1,147 1,173 187 194 199 204 206 62 66 70 73 77 5,408 5,421 5,432 5,413 5,372 16,189 16,217 16,286 16,365 16,479 3,389 3,414 3,433 3,460 3,503 Females 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 25,255 25,370 25,474 25,687 26,067 26,365 380 285 310 319 342 310 1,544 1,284 1,154 1,231 1,328 1,301 3,749 3,876 3,446 3,032 3,050 3,237 3,502 3,467 3,863 3,978 3,527 3,137 3,036 3,447 3,517 3,509 3,943 4,054 2,845 2,765 2,972 3,418 3,517 3,526 4,620 4,428 4,255 4,083 4,208 4,701 1,516 1,473 1,380 1,422 1,319 1,251 2,450 2,577 2,599 2,498 2,479 2,433 1,289 1,403 1,564 1,704 1,761 1,732 236 261 289 346 411 456 89 106 126 148 181 227 6,000 5,826 5,309 4,953 5,007 5,165 13,673 13,725 14,207 14,616 14,908 15,101 5,581 5,820 5,958 6,118 6,152 6,099 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 26,427 26,498 26,579 26,659 26,730 317 308 305 295 288 1,273 1,263 1,250 1,240 1,218 3,272 3,295 3,311 3,296 3,282 3,091 3,062 3,072 3,091 3,146 4,029 3,981 3,914 3,850 3,767 3,598 3,677 3,761 3,854 3,928 4,753 4,805 4,858 4,915 4,982 1,256 1,272 1,291 1,303 1,295 2,395 2,367 2,341 2,329 2,322 1,750 1,758 1,756 1,755 1,767 460 466 471 475 471 234 244 249 255 262 5,164 5,173 5,177 5,154 5,115 15,168 15,219 15,293 15,387 15,497 6,094 6,107 6,109 6,117 6,118 .. Figures not available. Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding. 43 National Statistics 16– 64/59 65/60 and over Population Trends 111 Table 1.4 continued Spring 2003 Population: age and sex Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Numbers (thousands) Age group Mid-year All ages Under 1 1–4 5–14 15–24 25–34 35–44 45–59 60–64 65–74 75–84 85–89 90 and over Under 16 16– 64/59 65/60 and over England Persons 1971 1981 1986 1991 1996 46,412 46,821 47,188 47,875 48,402 739 598 618 660 603 2,996 2,235 2,380 2,560 2,524 7,272 6,678 5,869 5,885 6,236 6,731 7,440 7,623 6,772 5,937 5,840 6,703 6,682 7,460 7,630 5,421 5,663 6,478 6,633 6,636 8,515 7,948 7,672 7,920 8,819 2,690 2,449 2,559 2,399 2,307 3,976 4,347 4,199 4,222 4,212 1,816 2,249 2,501 2,626 2,629 416 362 435 529 601 .. 149 172 210 269 11,648 10,285 9,583 9,658 9,966 27,127 28,133 28,962 29,390 29,551 7,636 8,403 8,643 8,827 8,885 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 48,523 48,658 48,836 48,997 49,181 614 598 592 574 557 2,472 2,452 2,426 2,404 2,362 6,311 6,360 6,397 6,375 6,349 5,840 5,785 5,813 5,866 6,000 7,567 7,458 7,316 7,183 7,031 6,769 6,914 7,069 7,234 7,366 8,907 8,994 9,086 9,181 9,304 2,319 2,352 2,388 2,408 2,391 4,166 4,134 4,107 4,100 4,106 2,671 2,696 2,709 2,722 2,758 609 622 632 640 638 278 292 300 309 319 9,977 9,998 10,015 9,976 9,900 29,642 29,719 29,859 30,024 30,243 8,904 8,940 8,963 8,997 9,038 Males 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 22,569 22,728 22,795 22,949 23,291 23,527 380 283 306 317 336 309 1,537 1,280 1,147 1,219 1,307 1,294 3,734 3,858 3,430 3,010 3,011 3,185 3,421 3,413 3,790 3,862 3,439 2,974 2,965 3,339 3,377 3,357 3,721 3,783 2,733 2,686 2,856 3,249 3,311 3,302 4,161 4,031 3,938 3,822 3,957 4,390 1,261 1,228 1,154 1,224 1,159 1,132 1,671 1,849 1,902 1,853 1,900 1,930 599 649 777 897 970 1,002 107 85 89 108 141 172 25 27 30 33 39 55 5,982 5,798 5,280 4,911 4,938 5,093 14,209 14,320 14,717 15,147 15,302 15,275 2,377 2,610 2,798 2,891 3,050 3,159 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 23,586 23,650 23,748 23,835 23,951 315 306 303 294 285 1,268 1,257 1,244 1,231 1,210 3,226 3,253 3,274 3,265 3,252 2,920 2,892 2,912 2,950 3,030 3,742 3,678 3,599 3,525 3,451 3,366 3,435 3,509 3,585 3,647 4,428 4,467 4,509 4,551 4,611 1,139 1,156 1,174 1,182 1,174 1,919 1,914 1,910 1,913 1,924 1,028 1,047 1,061 1,076 1,101 177 183 188 192 194 58 62 66 69 72 5,103 5,116 5,128 5,109 5,071 15,301 15,328 15,396 15,475 15,588 3,182 3,206 3,225 3,251 3,291 Females 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 23,843 23,932 24,026 24,239 24,584 24,875 359 269 292 301 324 293 1,459 1,211 1,088 1,161 1,253 1,230 3,538 3,656 3,248 2,859 2,873 3,052 3,310 3,275 3,650 3,761 3,333 2,963 2,875 3,260 3,327 3,325 3,739 3,848 2,688 2,612 2,807 3,229 3,322 3,334 4,354 4,168 4,009 3,850 3,964 4,430 1,429 1,387 1,295 1,335 1,239 1,175 2,305 2,425 2,445 2,346 2,323 2,282 1,217 1,323 1,472 1,604 1,656 1,626 309 246 273 326 388 429 85 100 119 140 171 214 5,666 5,495 5,004 4,672 4,720 4,873 12,918 14,968 13,416 13,815 14,088 14,276 5,259 5,481 5,605 5,752 5,777 5,726 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 24,937 25,007 25,088 25,163 25,231 300 292 288 280 273 1,203 1,195 1,183 1,173 1,152 3,085 3,107 3,124 3,110 3,097 2,920 2,893 2,901 2,917 2,970 3,825 3,780 3,718 3,658 3,580 3,403 3,480 3,560 3,649 3,719 4,479 4,527 4,576 4,630 4,693 1,180 1,196 1,214 1,226 1,217 2,247 2,221 2,198 2,187 2,182 1,643 1,649 1,648 1,646 1,657 432 439 444 448 444 220 230 235 240 247 4,873 4,882 4,888 4,866 4,829 14,341 14,391 14,463 14,550 14,655 5,722 5,734 5,738 5,746 5,747 Wales Persons 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2,740 2,799 2,813 2,811 2,873 2,887 43 33 36 37 38 34 173 151 136 143 153 146 433 453 407 357 363 380 386 388 434 438 393 351 325 379 383 369 402 408 315 309 333 378 389 379 519 509 485 464 486 540 164 161 158 166 154 147 252 267 272 271 284 279 110 121 139 154 164 170 16 19 21 26 32 37 6 7 8 10 13 17 686 680 626 578 589 596 1,582 1,618 1,663 1,686 1,711 1,713 472 501 525 547 573 578 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2,890 2,893 2,894 2,900 2,903 35 34 33 32 32 142 141 139 138 135 383 385 385 383 381 344 341 344 349 355 404 397 386 375 362 384 389 395 403 408 546 553 558 564 571 148 149 151 152 153 274 271 267 265 264 174 176 178 180 183 38 38 38 39 39 17 18 19 19 20 595 596 594 591 587 1,715 1,717 1,720 1,728 1,733 579 580 579 581 583 Males 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 1,329 1,361 1,365 1,362 1,391 1,398 22 17 18 19 20 17 89 78 70 73 78 74 222 233 209 184 186 194 194 197 221 221 199 177 164 193 193 186 199 202 158 157 168 190 194 187 253 249 240 231 242 269 76 75 73 79 74 72 107 114 118 119 128 128 38 41 48 54 60 64 6 5 5 7 8 10 1 2 2 2 2 3 352 350 321 297 302 304 827 849 871 885 891 887 150 162 173 181 198 206 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1,400 1,402 1,403 1,403 1,404 18 17 17 16 16 73 72 71 71 69 196 197 198 196 196 173 172 173 175 178 200 196 190 183 176 189 192 194 197 200 271 274 277 279 282 72 73 74 75 75 126 125 124 124 124 66 68 69 70 72 10 11 11 12 12 4 4 4 4 4 305 305 305 303 301 888 889 890 891 891 207 208 208 210 212 Females 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 1,412 1,438 1,448 1,449 1,482 1,490 21 16 18 18 19 16 85 73 66 70 75 71 211 220 199 173 177 186 191 191 213 217 194 174 161 187 190 184 203 206 157 153 165 188 195 192 265 260 246 233 244 272 88 86 85 87 80 75 146 152 154 152 156 151 73 80 91 100 104 106 16 14 16 20 24 27 4 6 6 8 10 13 335 330 305 282 288 292 755 770 791 801 820 825 322 339 352 366 375 373 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1,490 1,491 1,491 1,497 1,499 17 17 16 15 15 69 69 68 67 66 187 188 188 187 185 171 169 171 174 177 204 201 196 192 187 195 198 201 205 209 275 278 281 285 289 76 76 77 77 78 148 146 144 142 140 108 109 109 109 110 27 27 27 28 27 14 14 15 15 15 291 291 289 288 286 827 828 831 838 842 372 372 371 371 371 Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding. National Statistics 44 Population Trends 111 Table 1.4 continued Spring 2003 Population: age and sex Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Numbers (thousands) Age group Mid-year All ages Under 1 1–4 5–14 15–24 25–34 35–44 45–59 60–64 65–74 75–84 85–89 90 and over Under 16 16– 64/59 65/60 and over Scotland Persons 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 5,236 5,233 5,180 5,112 5,083 5,092 86 67 69 66 66 59 358 291 249 257 258 252 912 904 780 656 634 643 781 806 875 863 746 651 617 692 724 739 795 798 612 591 603 665 696 722 926 897 880 849 853 925 294 282 260 273 265 259 430 460 460 435 441 448 183 202 232 252 259 256 29 31 35 42 51 57 9 11 14 15 19 24 1,440 1,352 1,188 1,061 1,021 1,019 2,986 3,023 3,110 3,161 3,151 3,151 810 858 882 890 912 922 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 5,083 5,077 5,072 5,063 5,064 60 58 56 53 52 243 239 234 230 224 644 644 643 636 629 637 628 625 628 633 785 766 743 717 696 736 749 762 774 782 932 941 951 962 979 258 261 262 263 262 446 445 444 445 447 260 262 265 267 272 58 59 59 59 59 25 26 27 28 29 1,010 1,003 995 985 970 3,148 3,145 3,144 3,141 3,150 925 929 933 937 944 Males 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2,516 2,517 2,495 2,462 2,445 2,447 44 34 35 34 34 30 184 149 128 131 132 128 467 463 400 336 324 328 394 408 445 438 377 327 306 347 364 371 394 392 299 290 298 331 345 355 440 429 424 410 415 454 134 128 118 127 124 122 176 193 194 184 192 198 60 65 77 86 91 93 8 8 8 10 13 15 2 2 3 3 3 5 738 693 610 543 522 521 1,530 1,556 1,603 1,636 1,623 1,616 247 269 282 283 437 310 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2,442 2,439 2,437 2,432 2,434 31 30 29 28 26 124 122 120 118 115 329 329 329 326 322 320 315 313 315 319 384 374 362 347 337 362 367 372 377 379 458 463 469 474 483 122 124 125 125 125 197 198 198 199 200 95 96 98 100 103 16 16 16 17 17 5 5 6 6 6 516 513 510 505 497 1,613 1,610 1,609 2,012 1,610 313 316 318 322 327 Females 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2,720 2,716 2,685 2,649 2,639 2,645 42 32 33 32 32 28 174 142 121 126 126 123 445 440 380 320 309 315 387 398 430 424 369 324 311 345 359 368 402 406 313 301 305 334 351 367 485 468 456 439 437 470 160 154 142 146 141 137 254 267 265 250 249 250 122 137 155 166 168 164 20 23 27 32 38 42 7 8 11 12 16 20 701 659 579 518 499 498 1,455 1,468 1,506 1,525 1,528 1,535 563 589 600 606 612 612 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2,641 2,638 2,635 2,631 2,630 29 28 27 26 26 119 116 114 112 109 315 315 314 310 307 318 313 312 313 314 401 392 381 369 359 374 382 390 397 403 473 478 483 488 496 136 137 138 138 137 249 248 246 246 246 165 166 166 166 169 42 43 43 43 43 20 21 22 22 23 494 490 486 480 473 1,535 1,535 1,535 1,535 1,540 612 614 614 616 617 Northern Ireland Persons 1971 1,540 1976 1,524 1981 1,543 1986 1,574 1991 1,607 1996 1,662 31 26 27 28 26 24 126 111 106 107 106 99 299 306 282 261 260 266 247 243 271 277 256 244 189 198 200 217 240 257 165 163 175 190 200 220 243 231 227 227 241 266 74 73 68 71 70 70 106 111 116 115 120 123 51 53 57 64 69 72 7 8 .. 16 14 15 2 2 .. .. 6 7 483 471 444 423 417 415 853 840 874 917 945 993 205 212 224 234 246 253 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1,671 1,678 1,679 1,683 1,689 24 24 23 22 22 97 97 96 95 93 266 264 262 259 255 242 239 237 237 240 258 257 252 247 243 226 231 237 243 248 270 275 279 284 290 71 71 73 73 74 122 122 122 123 123 73 74 75 75 77 16 16 16 16 16 7 7 7 7 7 413 411 408 403 397 1,003 1,010 1,014 1,020 1,030 255 257 258 259 262 Males 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 755 754 757 768 783 810 16 13 14 14 13 12 64 58 54 55 54 51 152 157 145 134 133 136 127 127 140 142 131 124 95 102 102 109 119 128 81 81 87 95 100 109 116 111 109 110 118 131 36 34 32 33 32 33 45 47 50 50 53 54 19 19 21 23 26 27 2 3 .. 4 4 4 1 0 .. .. 1 1 246 242 228 217 213 212 441 442 454 474 487 511 67 70 75 77 83 87 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 816 819 818 820 824 12 12 12 11 11 50 50 49 49 48 136 135 134 133 131 123 121 119 120 122 129 128 125 122 120 112 114 117 119 122 133 135 138 141 144 34 34 35 35 35 54 54 54 55 56 28 28 29 29 30 4 5 5 5 5 1 2 2 2 2 211 211 209 207 204 516 520 521 524 529 88 89 89 90 92 Females 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 786 769 786 805 824 851 15 13 13 13 13 11 62 53 52 52 52 49 147 149 137 127 127 130 119 116 130 135 125 120 95 96 98 107 121 129 84 81 88 96 100 110 126 120 118 118 123 135 39 38 37 38 38 37 61 64 66 65 67 69 32 33 37 41 44 45 5 6 .. 12 10 11 2 2 .. .. 4 6 237 229 216 206 203 203 411 398 420 442 458 482 138 143 150 157 163 167 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 856 859 861 862 865 12 12 11 11 10 47 47 47 46 45 130 129 128 126 124 119 118 117 118 119 129 129 127 125 123 114 117 120 124 126 137 139 141 143 146 37 37 38 38 38 68 68 68 68 68 45 46 46 46 47 11 11 11 11 11 6 6 6 6 6 202 201 199 196 193 486 490 493 497 501 167 168 169 169 170 See notes opposite. 45 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Table 1.5 Spring 2003 Population: age, sex and legal marital status England and Wales Numbers (thousands) Total population Mid-year Males Single Married Divorced Females Widowed Total Single Married Divorced Widowed Total Aged 16 and over 1971 1976 1981 19862 19912 36,818 37,486 38,724 39,887 40,796 4,173 4,369 5,013 5,673 6,024 12,522 12,511 12,238 11,886 11,745 187 376 611 919 1,200 682 686 698 695 731 17,563 17,941 18,559 19,173 19,699 3,583 3,597 4,114 4,613 4,822 12,566 12,538 12,284 11,994 11,838 296 533 828 1,164 1,459 2,810 2,877 2,939 2,943 2,978 19,255 19,545 20,165 20,714 21,097 19942 19952 19962 19972 19982 41,003 41,167 41,356 41,540 41,746 6,221 6,345 6,482 6,622 6,768 11,492 11,415 11,339 11,256 11,185 1,413 1,480 1,543 1,604 1,659 730 729 728 726 725 19,855 19,968 20,091 20,209 20,338 4,958 5,058 5,171 5,292 5,415 11,583 11,488 11,406 11,319 11,244 1,684 1,754 1,819 1,882 1,940 2,922 2,898 2,870 2,838 2,808 21,147 21,199 21,265 21,331 21,408 19992 20002 41,996 42,275 6,936 7,109 11,128 11,074 1,716 1,770 721 718 20,501 20,672 5,539 5,667 11,185 11,136 2,001 2,063 2,771 2,737 21,495 21,604 16–19 1971 1976 1981 19862 19912 2,666 2,901 3,310 3,144 2,680 1,327 1,454 1,675 1,601 1,372 34 28 20 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,362 1,482 1,694 1,611 1,380 1,163 1,289 1,523 1,483 1,267 142 129 93 49 32 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,305 1,419 1,616 1,533 1,300 19942 19952 19962 19972 19982 2,360 2,374 2,436 2,517 2,578 1,212 1,220 1,251 1,291 1,322 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,215 1,222 1,253 1,293 1,324 1,131 1,139 1,171 1,212 1,242 14 13 12 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,145 1,152 1,183 1,224 1,254 19992 20002 2,595 2,571 1,332 1,322 2 2 0 0 0 0 1,334 1,324 1,250 1,237 11 9 0 0 0 0 1,261 1,246 20–24 1971 1976 1981 19862 19912 3,773 3,395 3,744 4,203 3,966 1,211 1,167 1,420 1,794 1,764 689 557 466 322 249 3 4 10 14 12 0 0 1 0 0 1,904 1,728 1,896 2,130 2,025 745 725 1,007 1,382 1,421 1,113 925 811 658 490 9 16 27 32 29 2 2 2 1 1 1,869 1,667 1,847 2,072 1,941 19942 19952 19962 19972 19982 3,625 3,495 3,329 3,177 3,084 1,699 1,658 1,597 1,536 1,500 152 127 105 87 76 7 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 1,858 1,791 1,707 1,628 1,579 1,416 1,404 1,369 1,333 1,314 330 282 238 204 180 20 17 15 12 10 1 0 0 0 0 1,767 1,703 1,622 1,549 1,505 19992 20002 3,085 3,132 1,511 1,541 68 63 3 2 0 0 1,582 1,606 1,328 1,363 165 154 9 8 0 0 1,503 1,525 25–29 1971 1976 1981 19862 19912 3,267 3,758 3,372 3,724 4,246 431 533 588 841 1,183 1,206 1,326 1,057 956 894 16 39 54 79 85 1 2 1 1 1 1,654 1,900 1,700 1,877 2,163 215 267 331 527 800 1,367 1,522 1,247 1,204 1,158 29 65 89 113 123 4 5 4 4 2 1,614 1,859 1,671 1,847 2,083 19942 19952 19962 19972 19982 4,168 4,094 4,045 3,972 3,883 1,293 1,326 1,368 1,401 1,422 754 696 639 577 520 76 70 64 58 51 1 1 1 1 0 2,124 2,092 2,071 2,037 1,994 908 936 977 1,014 1,047 1,011 947 887 818 750 122 116 109 101 91 2 2 2 2 2 2,044 2,002 1,975 1,935 1,889 19992 20001,2 3,774 3,685 1,426 1,429 469 426 45 39 0 0 1,941 1,895 1,062 1,080 686 632 84 75 2 2 1,833 1,790 Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding. Population estimates by marital status for 1971 and 1976 are based on the 1971 Census; those for 1981 and 1986 are based on the 1981 Census and have not been rebased using the 1991 Census. Estimates for 1991 onwards are based on the 1991 Census. 1. There was an error in the mid-2000 marital status estimates by gender that were published in this table in Population Trends 106. The error was due to the incorrect use of deaths data by gender in the processing. Total populations including totals by gender and the estimates of the number of single and divorced people are not affected by the error. There is an apparent difference in single females aged 25–29 but this is small and is purely due to rounding of the recompiled estimates by marital status.The figures supplied in this table are now correct.–– 2. These are original marital status estimates; rebased marital status estimates will not be available until Summer 2003, (See ‘in brief’). See Notes to tables on page 66. National Statistics 46 Population Trends 111 Table 1.5 continued Spring 2003 Population: age, sex and legal marital status England and Wales England and Wales Numbers (thousands) Total population Mid-year Males Single Married Divorced Females Widowed Total Single Married Divorced Widowed Total 30–34 1971 1976 1981 19862 19912 2,897 3,220 3,715 3,341 3,762 206 236 318 356 535 1,244 1,338 1,451 1,200 1,206 23 55 97 125 160 3 3 3 2 2 1,475 1,632 1,869 1,683 1,903 111 118 165 206 335 1,269 1,388 1,544 1,292 1,330 34 75 129 154 189 8 8 9 6 5 1,422 1,588 1,846 1,658 1,859 19942 19952 19962 19972 19982 4,126 4,235 4,296 4,318 4,294 732 799 855 903 938 1,187 1,177 1,155 1,125 1,085 179 182 181 177 171 2 2 2 3 3 2,100 2,160 2,194 2,207 2,196 467 518 560 598 627 1,340 1,333 1,316 1,287 1,247 213 218 221 222 219 5 5 5 5 5 2,025 2,075 2,103 2,111 2,098 19992 20002 4,260 4,211 976 1,016 1,041 993 163 153 2 2 2,182 2,164 652 675 1,205 1,158 216 209 5 5 2,078 2,047 35–44 1971 1976 1981 19862 19912 5,736 5,608 5,996 6,863 7,056 317 286 316 397 482 2,513 2,442 2,519 2,743 2,658 48 104 178 293 388 13 12 12 12 12 2,891 2,843 3,024 3,444 3,539 201 167 170 213 280 2,529 2,427 2,540 2,816 2,760 66 129 222 350 444 48 42 41 39 34 2,845 2,765 2,972 3,419 3,517 19942 19952 19962 19972 19982 6,925 7,003 7,146 7,325 7,515 556 601 657 725 802 2,463 2,446 2,449 2,458 2,467 444 464 483 503 520 12 12 13 13 14 3,475 3,523 3,602 3,700 3,803 343 374 414 459 510 2,587 2,568 2,575 2,593 2,612 491 509 527 545 563 29 29 28 28 27 3,449 3,480 3,544 3,625 3,712 19992 20002 7,734 7,970 890 981 2,483 2,503 537 552 14 14 3,923 4,050 570 635 2,634 2,659 579 600 27 27 3,811 3,920 45–64 1971 1976 1981 19862 19912 11,887 11,484 11,040 10,860 10,960 502 496 480 461 456 4,995 4,787 4,560 4,423 4,394 81 141 218 332 456 173 160 147 141 127 5,751 5,583 5,405 5,356 5,433 569 462 386 326 292 4,709 4,568 4,358 4,221 4,211 125 188 271 388 521 733 683 620 569 503 6,136 5,901 5,635 5,504 5,527 19942 19952 19962 19972 19982 11,596 11,730 11,844 11,959 12,103 489 500 512 524 541 4,564 4,581 4,587 4,590 4,604 587 630 673 715 758 120 119 118 117 117 5,759 5,830 5,890 5,946 6,019 300 305 310 318 328 4,422 4,452 4,473 4,494 4,523 659 703 746 789 832 456 440 425 412 401 5,837 5,900 5,954 6,013 6,085 19992 20002 12,259 12,398 560 579 4,618 4,621 802 846 117 117 6,097 6,164 340 353 4,554 4,577 875 920 392 384 6,162 6,234 65 and over 1971 1976 1981 19862 19912 6,592 7,119 7,548 7,752 8,127 179 197 216 223 231 1,840 2,033 2,167 2,233 2,337 17 33 54 76 99 492 510 534 539 589 2,527 2,773 2,971 3,070 3,257 580 569 533 475 427 1,437 1,579 1,692 1,754 1,858 32 60 90 127 153 2,016 2,138 2,263 2,325 2,433 4,065 4,347 4,578 4,681 4,870 19942 19952 19962 19972 19982 8,203 8,237 8,259 8,272 8,288 239 241 242 242 242 2,368 2,385 2,401 2,417 2,432 121 128 137 147 156 595 595 594 593 592 3,323 3,349 3,375 3,399 3,422 393 382 370 358 347 1,879 1,893 1,904 1,912 1,921 179 190 201 213 225 2,429 2,422 2,410 2,390 2,372 4,880 4,887 4,884 4,873 4,866 19992 20002 8,288 8,308 241 240 2,446 2,466 166 177 587 585 3,441 3,468 336 324 1,930 1,948 237 251 2,344 2,318 4,847 4,841 See notes opposite. 47 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Table 1.6 Spring 2003 Components of population change Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Mid-year to mid-year Population at start of period Numbers (thousands) Total annual change2 Components of change (mid-year to mid-year or annual averages) Live births Deaths Natural change (Live births – deaths) Total 1 Net civilian migration To/from To/from rest of UK Irish Republic Population at end of period To/from rest of the world Other changes } 55,928 56,216 56,357 56,684 + 58 + 27 + 65 +148 766 705 733 782 670 662 662 647 + 96 + 42 + 70 +135 – – – + 55 33 5 13 – – – – – 55 – 33 .. .. + 16 + 18 .. .. 56,216 56,352 56,684 57,439 1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 1998–99 1999–2000 2000–01 57,928 58.043 58,167 58,305 58,481 58,643 +115 +124 +138 +176 +162 +195 722 740 718 713 688 674 645 637 617 634 626 599 + 77 +103 +100 + 77 + 62 + 74 + 38 + 21 + 38 + 99 +100 +121 – – – – – .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 58,043 58,167 58,305 58,481 58,643 58,838 England and Wales 1971–76 1976–81 1981–86 1986–91 49,152 49,459 49,634 49,999 + 61 + 35 + 73 +150 644 612 639 689 588 582 582 569 + 76 + 30 + 57 +120 – – + + 28 9 16 30 +10 +11 .. .. – 9 – 3 .. .. – 29 – 17 .. .. + 13 + 14 .. .. 49,459 49,634 49,999 50,748 1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 1998–99 1999–2000 2000–01 51,175 51,289 51,413 51,550 51,730 51,897 +114 +124 +138 +180 +167 +187 640 655 636 630 612 599 569 562 544 558 550 528 + + + + + + 71 93 92 72 61 71 + 43 + 30 + 46 +107 +106 +116 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 51,289 51,413 51.550 51.730 51,897 52,084 England 1971–76 1976–81 1981–86 1986–91 46,412 46,660 46,821 47,188 + 50 + 32 + 73 +137 627 577 603 651 552 546 547 535 + 75 + 31 + 56 +116 – 35 – 11 + 18 + 21 + 1 + 6 .. .. – 9 – 3 .. .. – 27 – 15 .. .. + 10 + 12 .. .. 46,660 46,821 47,188 47,875 1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 1998–99 1999–2000 2000–01 48,290 48,402 48,523 48,658 48,836 48,997 +112 +121 +135 +179 +161 +184 606 620 602 598 580 568 533 527 510 523 516 495 + + + + + + 73 93 92 74 64 73 + 40 + 28 + 43 +104 + 97 + 111 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 48,402 48,523 48,658 48,836 48,997 49,181 3 2 .. .. 2,799 2,813 2,811 2,873 .. .. .. .. – .. 2,887 2,890 2,893 2,894 2,900 2,903 4 4 1 .. 5,233 5,180 5,112 5,083 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 5,092 5,083 5,077 5,072 5,063 5,064 7 3 1 1 – 1 + 17 – – 1,524 1,543 1,574 1,607 } United Kingdom 1971–76 1976–81 1981–86 1986–91 2,740 2,799 2,813 2,811 + + – + 12 3 1 12 37 35 36 38 36 36 35 34 + – + + 1 1 1 4 + + – + 7 2 1 8 +10 + 5 .. .. .. .. .. .. 1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 1998–99 1999–2000 2000–01 2,885 2,887 2,890 2,893 2,894 2,900 + + + + + + 2 3 3 1 6 3 34 35 34 33 31 31 35 35 34 35 34 33 – – – – 1 – – 2 3 2 + + + + + + 3 2 3 3 9 5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Scotland2 1971–76 1976–81 1981–86 1986–91 5,236 5,233 5,180 5,112 – – 11 – 14 – 6 73 66 66 66 64 64 64 62 + + + + 9 2 2 3 – 14 – 16 – 16 – 9 – 4 – 7 – 7 .. 1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 1998–99 1999–2000 2000–01 5,104 5,092 5,083 5,077 5,072 5,063 – – – – – + 12 9 6 5 9 1 59 60 58 57 54 53 61 60 59 60 60 57 – – – – – 2 – 1 4 6 4 – – – – – + Northern Ireland 3 1971–76 1976–81 1981–86 1986–91 1,540 1,524 1,543 1,574 – + + + 3 3 6 7 28 27 28 27 17 17 16 16 + + + + 11 10 12 12 – – 2 2 .. .. + + .. .. .. .. .. .. } Wales 1971–76 1976–81 1981–86 1986–91 9 9 6 1 3 5 – 14 – 8 – 5 – 5 – – – .. .. .. .. .. .. – – – – 7 4 3 3 – – – – 10 10 7 .. + + + } 1995–96 1,649 + 13 24 15 + 8 + 4 .. .. – 1,662 1996–97 1,662 + 10 25 15 + 10 – .. .. – 1,671 1997–98 1,671 + 7 24 15 + 9 – 2 .. .. – 1,678 1998–99 1,678 + 1 23 15 + 8 – 7 .. .. – 1,679 1999–2000 1,679 + 4 22 16 + 7 – 3 .. .. – 1,683 2000–01 1,683 + 6 22 14 + 7 – 1 .. .. – 1,689 1 For UK, England, Wales and Scotland, this column is not an estimate of net civilian migration. It has been derived by subtraction using revised population estimates and natural change. 2 Components of population change shown here for Scotland 1994–2000 are the existing pre 2001 census estimates. These are not consistent with the final row showing population change between 2000 and 2001 based on the results of the 2001 Census. The earlier years are subject to revision in 2003. 3 Population estimates for Northern Ireland have been rebased to take account of the 2001 Census. National Statistics 48 Population Trends 111 Table 2.1 Spring 2003 Vital statistics summary Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Year and quarter All live births Number Numbers (thousands) and rates Live births outside marriage Rate 1 Marriages Number Rate2 Number Rate3 Divorces Deaths Number Rate 4 Number Rate1 Infant mortality5 Number Neonatal mortality6 Rate 2 Number Perinatal mortality7 Rate2 Number Rate 8 United Kingdom 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 675.5 730.7 754.8 792.3 733.2 12.0 13.0 13.3 13.8 12.6 61.1 91.3 154.3 236.1 260.4 90 125 204 298 355 406.0 397.8 393.9 349.7 317.5 .. 49.4 .. .. .. 135.4 156.4 168.2 173.5 171.7 .. 11.3 .. .. .. 680.8 658.0 660.7 646.2 636.0 12.1 11.7 11.7 11.2 11.0 9.79 8.16 7.18 5.82 4.50 14.5 11.2 9.5 7.4 6.1 6.68 4.93 4.00 3.46 3.00 9.9 6.7 5.3 4.4 4.1 12.3 8.79 7.31 6.45 6.41 18.0 12.0 9.6 8.1 8.7 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 726.6 716.9 700.0 679.0 669.1p 12.5 12.3 12.0 11.6 11.4p 267.0 269.7 271.6 268.1 268.0p 368 376 388 395 401p 310.2 304.8 301.1 305.9 286.1 .. .. .. .. .. 161.1 160.1 158.7 154.6 156.8P .. .. .. .. .. 629.7 629.2 632.1 608.4 602.3 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.4 10.2 4.25 4.08 4.05 3.79 3.66 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.5 2.81 2.72 2.73 2.63 2.43 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.6 6.06 5.94 5.79 5.56 5.39 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.0 2001 March June Sept Dec 164.9 167.0 171.7 165.6 11.4 11.4p 11.6p 11.2p p 65.9p 65.2p 69.2p 67.7p 400p 391p 403p 409p 33.0p 81.1p 120.4 p 51.6p .. .. .. .. 39.3P 39.3P 38.5P 39.7P .. .. .. .. 165.0 145.6 138.8 152.9 11.3 10.0 9.4 10.3 0.98 0.86 0.90 0.93 5.9 5.1 5.3 5.6 0.64 0.58 0.62 0.60 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 1.38 1.33 1.31 1.37 8.3 7.9 7.6 8.2 2002 March June Sept 161.0 p 165.2 173.6P 11.1p 11.3p 11.7P 65.3p 65.5p 71.0P 406p 396p 403P .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 164.0 p 146.3 P 141.1 P 11.3p 10.0P 9.5P 0.89p 0.89P 0.84P 5.5p 5.4P 4.8P 0.58p 0.60P 0.57P 3.6p 3.6P 3.3P 1.35p 1.40P 1.40P 8.4p 8.4P 7.9P England and Wales 1976 584.3 1981 634.5 1986 661.0 1991 699.2 1996 649.5 11.8 12.8 13.2 13.8 12.7 53.8 81.0 141.3 211.3 232.7 92 128 214 302 358 358.6 352.0 347.9 306.8 279.0 57.7 49.6 43.5 35.6 30.0 126.7 145.7 153.9 158.7 157.1 10.1 11.9 12.9 13.5 13.8 598.5 577.9 581.2 570.0 560.1 12.1 11.6 11.6 11.2 10.9 8.34 7.02 6.31 5.16 3.99 14.3 11.1 9.6 7.4 6.1 5.66 4.23 3.49 3.05 2.68 9.7 6.7 5.3 4.4 4.1 10.5 7.56 6.37 5.65 5.62 17.7 11.8 9.6 8.0 8.6 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 643.1 635.9 621.9 604.4 594.6 12.5 12.3 12.0 11.6 11.4 238.2 240.6 241.9 238.6 238.1 370 378 389 395 400 272.5 267.3 263.5 268.0 249.2 p 28.7 27.7 26.8 26.7 24.8p 146.7 145.2 144.6 141.1 143.8P 13.0 12.9 13.0 12.7 13.0P 555.3 555.0 556.1 535.7 530.4 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.3 10.2 3.80 3.63 3.62 3.38 3.24 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.4 2.52 2.42 2.44 2.34 2.14 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.6 5.38 5.26 5.14 4.96 4.75 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.0 2001 March June Sept Dec 145.5 148.8 153.0 147.4 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.2 58.0 58.1 61.8 60.2 398 391 404 409 28.8 70.9p 105.3 p 44.2p p 11.7p 28.3p 41.7p 17.5p 36.1p 36.0p 35.4p 36.3p 13.2p 13.0p 12.7p 13.0p 145.1 128.3 122.2 134.8 11.2 9.9 9.3 10.3 0.85 0.75 0.82 0.83 5.8 5.0 5.3 5.6 0.54 0.50 0.56 0.54 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.6 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.21 8.2 7.9 7.6 8.2 2002 March June Sept Dec 143.3p 147.2p 155.0p .. 11.2p 11.3p 11.8p .. 58.0p 58.3p 63.4p .. 405p 396p 409p .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 35.8P 37.3P 37.9P p 33.6 13.1P 13.5P 13.5P 12.0p 144.8 p 128.7 p 124.0 P .. 11.3p 9.9p 9.4P .. 0.81p 0.78p 0.75P .. 5.7p 5.3p 4.8P .. 0.54p 0.54p 0.51P .. 3.8p 3.6p 3.3P .. 1.23p 1.25p 1.23P .. 8.5p 8.4p 7.9P .. England 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 550.4 598.2 623.6 660.8 614.2 11.8 12.8 13.2 13.7 12.5 50.8 76.9 133.5 198.9 218.2 92 129 214 301 355 339.0 332.2 328.4 290.1 264.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 146.0 150.1 148.7 .. .. .. .. .. 560.3 541.0 544.5 534.0 524.0 12.0 11.6 11.6 11.2 10.8 7.83 6.50 5.92 4.86 3.74 14.2 10.9 9.5 7.3 6.1 5.32 3.93 3.27 2.87 2.53 9.7 6.6 5.2 4.3 4.1 9.81 7.04 5.98 5.33 5.36 17.6 11.7 9.5 8.0 8.7 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 608.2 602.1 589.5 572.8 563.7 12.3 12.2 11.8 11.7 11.5 223.4 225.7 226.7 223.8 223.3 367 375 385 391 396 258.0 253.1 249.5 253.8 236.2 p .. .. .. .. .. 138.7 137.3 137.0 133.9 136.4P .. .. .. .. .. 519.1 519.6 519.6 501.0 496.1 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.2 10.1 3.60 3.39 3.38 3.18 3.04 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.4 2.37 2.29 2.29 2.21 2.02 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.6 5.09 4.97 4.86 4.69 4.51 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.0 2001 March June Sept Dec 137.8 141.1 145.1 139.6 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.3 54.3 54.5 58.0 56.4 394 386 400 404 27.5 p 67.1 99.6p 42.0p p .. .. .. .. 34.2p 34.2p 33.6p 34.5p .. .. .. .. 135.7 119.9 114.2 126.2 11.1 9.3 8.7 9.6 0.79 0.72 0.76 0.77 5.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 0.51 0.48 0.53 0.50 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.6 1.13 1.12 1.12 1.15 8.1 7.9 7.6 8.2 2002 March June Sept Dec 135.9p 139.8p 147.1p .. 11.2P 11.4p 11.7p .. 54.3p 54.7p 59.4p .. 400p 391p 404P .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 34.0P 35.4P 36.0P 32.0p .. .. .. .. 135.6 p 120.4 p 115.8 P .. 11.2p 9.8p 9.3P .. 0.77p 0.74p 0.70P .. 5.7p 5.3p 4.8P .. 0.52p 0.51p 0.47P .. 3.8p 3.7p 3.2P .. 1.18p 1.19p 1.15P .. 8.6p 8.5p 7.8P .. p Notes: Quarters for 2002 are based on the mid-2001 population estimate. Rates for the most recent quarters will be particularly subject to revision, even when standard detail is given, as they are based on provisional numbers or on estimates derived from events registered in the period. Figures for England and Wales represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year up to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993. Rates are based on original marital status estimates; rebased marital estimates will be available in mid 2003 Provisional figures are registrations. From 1972 figures for England and figures for Wales each exclude events for persons usually resident outside England and Wales.These events are however included in the totals for England and Wales combined, and for the United Kingdom. From 1981 births to non-resident mothers in Northern Ireland are excluded from the figures for Northern Ireland, and for the United Kingdom. Figures may not add exactly due to rounding. See Notes to tables on page 66. 49 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Table 2.1 continued Spring 2003 Vital statistics summary Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Year and quarter All live births Numbers (thousands) and rates Live births outside marriage Marriages Divorces Number Rate 1 Number Rate2 Number Rate 3 Wales 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 33.4 35.8 37.0 38.1 34.9 11.9 12.7 13.1 13.3 11.9 2.9 4.0 7.8 12.3 14.4 86 112 211 323 412 19.5 19.8 19.5 16.6 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 34.5 33.4 32.1 31.3 30.6 11.8 11.4 10.9 10.8 10.5 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 428 444 461 472 483 14.6 14.2 14.0 14.1 .. 2001 March June Sept Dec 7.7 7.5 7.7 7.7 10.8 10.4 10.6 10.5 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.8 477 473 481 499 2002 March June Sept Dec 7.3p 7.4p 7.9p .. 10.2p 10.2p 10.7p .. 3.6 p 3.5 p 4.0 p .. Scotland 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 64.9 69.1 65.8 67.0 59.3 12.5 13.4 12.9 13.2 11.6 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 59.4 57.3 55.1 53.1 52.5 2001 March June Sept Dec 13.5 12.9 13.2 12.9 2002 March June Sept Deaths .. .. 7.9 8.6 8.4 .. .. .. .. .. 36.3 35.0 34.7 34.1 34.6 13.0 12.4 12.3 11.9 12.0 0.46 0.45 0.35 0.25 0.20 13.7 12.6 9.5 6.6 5.6 0.32 0.29 0.21 0.16 0.13 9.6 8.1 5.6 4.1 3.6 0.64 0.51 0.38 0.30 0.26 19.0 14.1 10.3 7.9 7.5 .. .. .. .. .. 8.0 7.9 7.5 7.2 7.4P .. .. .. .. .. 34.6 34.0 35.0 33.3 33.0 12.0 11.7 12.1 11.5 11.4 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.17 0.16 5.9 5.6 6.1 5.3 5.4 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.11 3.9 3.6 4.0 3.5 3.5 0.27 0.27 0.25 0.23 0.23 7.9 8.0 7.7 7.2 7.5 1.4 3.8p 5.7p 2.2p .. .. .. .. 1.9p 1.8p 1.8p 1.8p .. .. .. .. 9.1 8.0 7.6 8.3 12.6 11.1 10.4 11.4 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.04 6.5 4.4 5.3 5.2 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.8 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.06 8.0 7.8 6.7 7.5 491p 481p 504p .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 1.8P 2.0P 1.9P 1.7p .. .. .. .. 8.9p 8.0p 7.9P .. 12.5p 11.0p 10.8P .. 0.03p 0.03p 0.04P .. 4.5p 4.4p 5.4P .. 0.02p 0.02p 0.03P .. 2.6p 2.9p 3.8P .. 0.05p 0.06p 0.07P .. 6.1p 8.0p 8.7P .. 6.0 8.5 13.6 19.5 21.4 93 122 206 291 360 37.5 36.2 35.8 33.8 30.2 53.8 47.5 42.8 38.7 32.8 8.1 9.9 12.8 12.4 12.3 6.5 8.0 10.7 10.6 10.9 65.3 63.8 63.5 61.0 60.7 12.5 12.3 12.4 12.0 11.9 0.96 0.78 0.58 0.47 0.37 14.8 11.3 8.8 7.1 6.2 0.67 0.47 0.34 0.29 0.23 10.3 6.9 5.2 4.6 3.9 1.20 0.81 0.67 0.58 0.55 18.3 11.6 10.2 8.6 9.2 11.7 11.3 10.9 10.5 10.4 22.4 22.3 22.7 22.6 22.8 377 389 412 426 433 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.4 29.6 31.7 31.2 31.1 29.5 28.8P 12.2 12.4 11.9 11.1 10.6 11.0 11.2 10.8 10.3 9.8 59.5 59.2 60.3 57.8 57.4 11.7 11.7 11.9 11.4 11.3 0.32 0.32 0.28 0.31 0.29 5.3 5.5 5.0 5.7 5.5 0.19 0.20 0.18 0.21 0.20 3.2 3.5 3.3 4.0 3.8 0.47 0.49 0.42 0.45 0.45 7.8 8.5 7.6 8.4 8.5 10.8 10.2 10.3 10.1 6.0 5.4 5.6 5.7 445 422 427 439 3.4 8.2 11.9 6.1 13.6 32.7p 46.5p 24.0p p 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 9.9p 9.9p 9.5p 10.1p 15.8 13.8 13.3 14.6 12.5 10.9 10.4 11.4 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 6.4 5.8 4.9 5.0 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.03 4.5 4.7 3.3 2.6 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.11 9.6 8.9 7.3 8.1 12.4 p 12.6 13.2P 9.9p 10.0p 10.4P 5.5 P 5.4 P 5.7 P 448p 430p 431P 3.5p 8.2p 11.9P 13.6p 32.6p 46.8P 2.4p 2.9P 2.6P 9.0p 10.6P 9.5P 15.3p 14.0P 13.6P 12.2p 11.1P 10.6P 0.05p 0.08P 0.07P 4.0p 6.5P 5.2P 0.03p 0.04P 0.05P 2.0p 3.3P 3.7P 0.09p 0.10P 0.10P 7.0p 8.0P 7.3P Northern Ireland 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 26.4 27.2 28.0 26.0 24.4 17.3 17.0 17.8 16.2 14.7 1.3 1.9 3.6 5.3 6.3 50 69 127 203 260 9.9 9.6 10.2 9.2 8.3 .. 45.4 .. .. .. 0.6 1.4 1.5 2.3 2.3 .. 4.2 .. .. .. 17.0 16.3 16.1 15.1 15.2 11.2 10.6 10.3 9.4 9.2 0.48 0.36 0.36 0.19 0.14 18.3 13.2 13.2 7.4 5.8 0.35 0.23 0.23 0.12 0.09 13.3 8.3 8.3 4.6 3.7 0.59 0.42 0.42 0.22 0.23 22.3 15.3 15.3 8.4 9.4 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 24.1 23.7 23.0 21.5 22.0 14.4 14.1 13.7 12.8 13.0 6.4 6.7 7.0 6.8 7.1 266 284 303 318 325 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.3 .. .. .. .. .. 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 .. .. .. .. .. 15.0 15.0 15.7 14.9 14.5 9.0 8.9 9.3 8.9 8.6 0.14 0.13 0.15 0.11 0.13 5.6 5.6 6.4 5.1 6.1 0.10 0.09 0.11 0.82 0.98 4.2 3.9 4.8 3.8 4.5 0.21 0.20 0.23 0.15 0.19 8.6 8.1 10.0 7.3 8.5 2001 March June Sept Dec 5.8 5.3 5.6 5.3 13.9 12.7 13.1 12.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 332 312 317 341 0.8 2.0 3.2 1.3 .. .. .. .. 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 .. .. .. .. 4.1 3.6 3.3 3.5 9.8 8.5 7.9 8.2 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.03 8.5 5.4 4.0 6.5 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 5.9 3.9 2.9 5.1 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.05 9.8 7.4 7.4 9.1 2002 March June Sept 5.3p p 5.3 5.6p 12.8p 12.7p 13.0P 1.8 p 1.8 p 1.9 P 336p 331p 334P .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 3.9p 3.5P 3.5P 9.3p 8.3P 8.3P 0.02p 0.03P 0.02P 4.5p 4.9P 4.1P 0.02p 0.02P 0.02P 3.6p 3.4P 2.9P 0.04p 0.05P 0.05P 7.9p 8.7P 8.6P p See notes opposite. 1 Per 1,000 population of all ages. 2 Per 1,000 live births. 3 Persons marrying per 1,000 unmarried population 16 and over. 4 Persons divorcing per 1,000 married population. 5 Deaths under 1 year. National Statistics 50 p 6 7 8 p .. Number Rate2 Perinatal mortality7 Number Number Rate 2 Neonatal mortality 6 Rate4 Number Rate 1 Infant mortality5 Number Rate8 Deaths under 4 weeks. Stillbirths and deaths under 1 week. In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth was changed, from baby born dead after 28 completed weeks of gestation or more, to one born dead after 24 completed weeks of gestation or more. Per 1,000 live births and stillbirths. Provisional. Figures not available. Population Trends 111 Table 2.2 Spring 2003 Key demographic and health indicators Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean age Dependency ratio Population Live births Deaths Children1 Elderly2 Live births TFR 3 Expectation of life (in years) at birth Outside marriage as percentage of total live births Mean age of mother at birth (years)4 Agestandardised mortality rate5 Males Females Infant mortality rate5 United Kingdom 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 56,216.1 56,357.5 56,683.8 57,438.9 58,043.0 675.5 730.7 754.8 792.3 733.2 680.8 658.0 660.7 646.2 636.0 42.1 37.1 33.5 33.2 33.9 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.0 1.74 1.82 1.78 1.82 1.73 9.0 12.5 21.4 29.8 35.5 26.4 26.8 27.0 27.7 28.6 10,486 9,506 8,914 8,168 7,591 69.6 70.8 71.9 73.2 74.3 75.2 76.8 77.7 78.8 79.5 14.5 11.2 9.5 7.4 6.1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 58,167.2 58,305.3 58,481.1 58,643.2 58,836.7 726.6 716.9 700.0 679.0 669.1 629.7 629.2 632.1 608.4 602.3 33.8 33.7 33.6 33.3 32.8 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 1.73 1.72 1.69 1.65 1.63p 36.8 37.6 38.8 39.5 40.1p 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2p 7,440 7,364 7,328 6,985 6,820 74.6 74.8 75.1 75.3p .. 79.6 79.8 80.0 80.1p .. 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.5 England 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 46,659.9 46,820.8 47,187.6 47,875.0 48,402.1 550.4 598.2 623.6 660.8 614.2 560.3 541.0 544.5 534.0 524.0 41.4 36.4 33.1 32.9 33.7 29.7 29.9 29.8 30.0 30.1 1.70 1.79 1.76 1.81 1.73 9.2 12.9 21.4 30.1 35.5 26.4 26.8 27.0 27.7 28.7 10,271 9,298 8,725 8,017 7,422 .. 71.1 72.2 73.4 74.6 .. 77.0 77.9 79.0 79.7 14.2 10.9 9.5 7.3 6.1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 48,523.0 48,657.5 48,836.5 48,897.3 49,181.3 608.2 602.1 589.5 572.8 563.7 519.1 519.6 519.6 501.0 496.1 33.7 33.6 33.5 33.2 32.7 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 1.73 1.72 1.70 1.66 1.64 36.7 37.5 38.5 39.1 39.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 7,279 7,215 7,149 6,825 6,665 74.9 75.1 75.4 75.6p .. 79.9 80.0 80.2 80.3p .. 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.4 Wales 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2,799.3 2,813.5 2,810.9 2,873.0 2,887.0 33.4 35.8 37.0 38.1 34.9 36.3 35.0 34.7 34.1 34.6 42.0 37.6 34.3 34.4 34.8 30.9 31.6 32.5 33.5 33.8 1.78 1.86 1.86 1.88 1.81 8.7 11.2 21.1 32.3 41.2 26.0 26.6 26.5 27.0 27.8 10,858 9,846 9,043 8,149 7,763 .. 70.4 71.6 73.2 74.0 .. 76.4 77.6 78.9 79.2 13.7 12.6 9.5 6.6 5.6 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2,889.6 2,892.9 2,893.6 2,900.1 2,903.2 34.5 33.4 32.1 31.3 30.6 34.6 34.0 35.0 33.3 33.0 34.7 34.7 34.5 34.2 33.9 33.7 33.8 33.7 33.6 33.7 1.81 1.78 1.72 1.68 1.66 42.8 44.4 46.1 47.2 48.3 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 7,682 7,478 7,642 7,182 7,025 74.4 74.5 74.8 74.9p .. 79.4 79.5 79.7 79.8p .. 5.9 5.6 6.1 5.3 5.4 Scotland 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 5,233.4 5,180.2 5,111.8 5,083.3 5,092.2 64.9 69.1 65.8 67.0 59.3 65.3 63.8 63.5 61.0 60.7 44.7 38.2 33.6 32.4 32.3 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.9 29.2 1.80 1.84 1.67 1.69 1.56 9.3 12.2 20.6 29.1 36.0 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.4 28.5 11,675 10,849 10,120 9,216 8,791 68.2 69.1 70.2 71.4 72.2 74.4 75.3 76.2 77.1 77.8 14.8 11.3 8.8 7.1 6.2 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 5,083.3 5,077.1 5,072.0 5,062.9 5,064.2 59.4 57.3 55.1 53.1 52.5 59.5 59.2 60.3 57.8 57.4 32.1 31.9 31.7 31.4 30.8 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 1.58 1.55 1.51 1.48 1.49 37.7 39.0 41.2 42.6 43.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 8,533 8,432 8,493 8,082 7,930 72.4 72.6 72.8 73.1 .. 77.9 78.1 78.2 78.6 .. 5.3 5.5 5.0 5.7 5.5 Northern Ireland 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 1,523.5 1,543.0 1,573.5 1,607.3 1,661.8 26.4 27.2 28.0 26.0 24.4 17.0 16.3 16.1 15.1 15.2 56.1 50.6 46.1 44.1 41.8 25.3 25.3 25.5 26.1 25.5 2.70 2.59 2.44 2.16 1.96 5.0 7.0 12.8 20.3 26.0 27.4 27.5 27.5 28.0 28.8 11,746 10,567 10,071 8,303 7,742 67.5 69.2 70.9 72.6 73.8 73.8 75.5 77.1 78.4 79.2 18.3 13.2 10.2 7.4 5.8 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1,671.3 1,677.8 1,679.0 1,682.9 1,689.3 24.1 23.7 23.0 21.5 22.0 15.0 15.0 15.7 14.9 14.5 41.2 40.7 40.2 39.5 38.6 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.5 1.93 1.90 1.86 1.75 1.80 26.7 28.5 30.3 31.8 32.5 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.4 7,550 7,460 7,699 7,279 6,976 74.2 74.3 74.5 74.8 .. 79.5 79.5 79.6 79.8 .. 5.6 5.6 6.4 5.1 6.1 Notes: Some of these indicators are also in other tables. They are brought together to make comparison easier. Figures for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each year up to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993. From 1981 births to non-resident mothers in Northern Ireland are excluded from the figures for Northern Ireland, and the United Kingdom. 1 Percentage of children under 16 to working population (males 16–64 and females 16–59). 2 Percentage of males 65 and over and females 60 and over to working population (males 16–64 and females 16–59). 3 TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if current patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes called the TPFR (total period fertility rate). 4 The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no account of the changing age structure of the population. 5 Per million population. The age-standardised mortality rate makes allowances for changes in the age structure of the population. See Notes to tables. 5 Deaths under one year, per 1,000 live births. p Provisional. . . Figures not available. See Notes to tables on page 66. For specific information about life expectancy see ‘in brief’ on page 3. 51 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 Live births: age of mother Table 3.1 England and Wales Numbers (thousands), rates, mean age and TFRs Age of mother at birth Year and quarter All ages Under 20 20–24 25–29 30–34 Age of mother at birth 35–39 40 and over All ages Under 20 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and over TFR2 Age-specific fertility rates3 Total live births (numbers) 1961 20–24 Mean1 age (years) 811.3 59.8 249.8 248.5 152.3 77.5 23.3 89.2 37.3 172.6 176.9 103.1 48.1 15.0 27.6 2.77 876.0 76.7 276.1 270.7 153.5 75.4 23.6 92.9 42.5 181.6 187.3 107.7 49.8 13.7 27.2 2.93 1966 849.8 86.7 285.8 253.7 136.4 67.0 20.1 90.5 47.7 176.0 174.0 97.3 45.3 12.5 26.8 2.75 1971 783.2 82.6 285.7 247.2 109.6 45.2 12.7 83.5 50.6 152.9 153.2 77.1 32.8 8.7 26.2 2.37 584.3 57.9 182.2 220.7 90.8 26.1 6.5 60.4 32.2 109.3 118.7 57.2 18.6 4.8 26.4 1.71 1977(min) 569.3 54.5 174.5 207.9 100.8 25.5 6.0 58.1 29.4 103.7 117.5 58.6 18.2 4.4 26.5 1.66 1981 634.5 56.6 194.5 215.8 126.6 34.2 6.9 61.3 28.1 105.3 129.1 68.6 21.7 4.9 26.8 1.80 1986 661.0 57.4 192.1 229.0 129.5 45.5 7.6 60.6 30.1 92.7 123.8 78.0 24.6 4.8 27.0 1.77 1991 699.2 52.4 173.4 248.7 161.3 53.6 9.8 63.6 33.0 89.3 119.4 86.7 32.1 5.3 27.6 1.82 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 689.7 673.5 664.7 648.1 649.5 47.9 45.1 42.0 41.9 44.7 163.3 152.0 140.2 130.7 125.7 244.8 236.0 229.1 217.4 211.1 166.8 171.1 179.6 181.2 186.4 56.7 58.8 63.1 65.5 69.5 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.3 12.1 63.6 62.7 62.0 60.5 60.6 31.7 30.9 28.9 28.5 29.7 86.2 82.6 79.1 76.4 77.0 117.5 114.4 112.4 108.7 106.9 87.3 87.3 89.3 88.2 89.7 33.4 34.1 35.8 36.4 37.5 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.2 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.6 1.80 1.77 1.75 1.72 1.74 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 643.1 635.9 621.9 604.4 594.6 46.4 48.3 48.4 45.8 44.2 118.6 113.5 110.7 107.7 108.8 202.8 193.1 181.9 170.7 159.9 187.5 188.5 185.3 180.1 178.9 74.9 78.9 81.3 85.0 86.5 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.1 16.3 60.0 59.3 57.9 56.0 54.8 30.3 31.2 31.1 29.5 28.0 75.9 74.9 73.1 70.2 69.3 104.5 101.6 98.4 94.5 91.9 89.8 90.7 89.7 88.1 88.2 39.3 40.4 40.6 41.4 41.6 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 1.73 1.72 1.70 1.66 1.64 2000 March June Sept Dec 148.7 150.7 155.0 150.1 11.4 11.1 11.8 11.5 26.4 26.0 27.8 27.5 42.5 42.8 43.6 41.8 44.1 45.7 46.2 44.1 20.6 21.4 21.7 21.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.9 55.4 56.1 57.1 55.3 30 29 30 29 69 68 72 71 95 95 96 92 87 90 90 86 40 42 42 41 8 8 9 9 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 1.64 1.66 1.69 1.64 2001 March June Sept Dec 145.5 148.8 153.0 147.4 11.0 10.8 11.4 11.1 26.5 26.4 28.1 27.8 39.8 40.3 41.0 38.9 43.3 45.5 46.4 43.7 21.0 21.7 22.0 21.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 54.5 55.1 56.6 53.9 28 27 29 28 69 68 72 70 91 92 94 89 86 90 92 86 41 42 42 42 9 9 9 9 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 1.62 1.64 1.68 1.62 p 20024 March Junep Septp 143.3 147.2 155.0 10.5 10.4 11.4 26.5 26.7 28.9 37.4 37.9 39.9 43.2 45.5 46.9 21.6 22.4 23.4 4.1 4.3 4.5 53.6 54.5 57.4 27 27 29 69 68 74 87 87 92 86 90 93 42 43 45 9 9 10 29.3 29.4 29.3 1.60 1.62 1.71 1964(max) 1 1976 1 Note: The rates for women of all ages, under 20, and 40 and over are based upon the populations of women aged 15–44, 15–19, and 40–44 respectively. 1 The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no account of the changing age structure of the population. 2 TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if current patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes called the TPFR (total period fertility rate). During the post Second World War period the TFR reached a maximum in 1964 and a minimum in 1977. 3 Births per 1,000 women in the age-group; all quarterly age-specific fertility rates are adjusted for days in the quarter. They are not adjusted for seasonality, and therefore have been revised from those previously published. 4 The rates and TFR for the quarters of 2002 are based on the mid-2001 population estimates. p Provisional. National Statistics 52 Population Trends 111 Live births outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration Table 3.2 England and Wales Numbers (thousands), mean age and percentages Age of mother at birth Year and quarter Spring 2003 All ages Under 20 20–24 25–29 30–34 Registration2 Age of mother at birth 35–39 40 and over Mean age (years) All ages Under 20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and over Joint Sole Same Different address3 address3 Live births outside marriage (numbers) Percentage of total live births As a percentage of all births outside marriage { in age-group 65.7 53.8 81.0 21.6 19.8 26.4 22.0 16.6 28.8 11.5 9.7 14.3 6.2 4.7 7.9 3.2 2.3 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.9 23.7 23.3 23.4 8.4 9.2 12.8 26.1 34.2 46.7 7.7 9.1 14.8 4.7 4.4 6.6 5.7 5.2 6.2 7.0 8.6 3.9 9.0 10.1 12.5 45.5 51.0 58.2 54.5 49.0 41.8 1986 1991 141.3 211.3 39.6 43.4 54.1 77.8 27.7 52.4 13.1 25.7 5.7 9.8 1.1 2.1 23.8 24.8 21.4 30.2 69.0 82.9 28.2 44.9 12.1 21.1 10.1 16.0 12.6 18.3 14.7 21.3 46.6 54.6 19.6 19.8 33.8 25.6 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 215.2 216.5 215.5 219.9 232.7 40.1 38.2 35.9 36.3 39.3 77.1 75.0 71.0 69.7 71.1 55.9 57.5 58.5 59.6 62.3 28.9 31.4 34.0 37.0 40.5 10.9 11.9 13.4 14.4 16.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.1 31.2 32.2 32.4 33.9 35.8 83.7 84.8 85.5 86.6 88.0 47.2 49.4 50.6 53.3 56.5 22.8 24.4 25.5 27.4 29.5 17.3 18.4 18.9 20.4 21.7 19.3 20.2 21.2 22.0 23.4 22.9 23.5 25.2 26.2 26.7 55.4 54.8 57.5 58.1 58.1 20.7 22.0 19.8 20.1 19.9 23.9 23.2 22.7 21.8 21.9 1997 1998 1999 2000 p 2001 238.2 240.6 241.9 238.6 238.1 41.1 43.0 43.0 41.1 39.5 69.5 67.8 67.5 67.5 68.1 63.4 62.4 61.2 59.1 56.8 42.2 43.9 45.0 43.9 45.2 18.2 19.6 20.8 22.3 23.3 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 37.0 37.8 38.9 39.5 40.0 88.7 89.1 89.0 89.7 89.5 58.6 59.7 61.0 62.6 62.6 31.3 32.3 33.6 34.6 35.5 22.5 23.3 24.3 24.4 25.3 24.3 24.8 25.6 26.2 26.9 28.6 29.0 30.2 31.0 31.6 59.5 60.9 61.8 62.7 63.2 19.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.4 21.2 20.8 19.9 19.2 18.4 1997 March June Sept Dec 58.6 58.9 61.4 59.3 10.2 10.1 10.5 10.4 17.4 17.1 17.9 17.2 15.7 15.5 16.5 15.7 10.2 10.6 10.9 10.4 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 26.1 26.3 26.2 26.2 37.0 36.1 37.3 37.8 88.7 89.1 88.8 88.3 58.4 58.0 58.9 59.2 31.1 30.1 31.8 32.2 22.4 22.0 22.7 23.0 23.9 24.3 24.4 24.8 28.7 28.4 27.8 29.3 58.4 59.6 59.9 60.0 19.5 19.4 18.9 19.2 22.0 21.0 21.2 20.7 1998 March June Sept Dec 58.5 58.4 63.2 60.5 10.4 10.3 11.3 11.0 16.5 16.2 17.9 17.2 15.3 15.4 16.3 15.4 10.7 10.8 11.5 10.9 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 37.5 36.8 38.1 38.9 89.0 89.6 89.2 88.5 59.5 59.1 60.0 60.4 31.9 31.8 32.3 33.3 23.1 22.5 23.6 24.0 24.4 24.0 25.2 25.7 29.6 28.3 28.5 29.7 60.5 61.0 60.9 61.2 18.4 18.2 18.4 18.4 21.1 20.8 20.7 20.4 1999 March June Sept Dec 59.0 59.8 62.9 60.2 10.8 10.5 11.1 10.6 16.4 16.5 17.7 17.0 15.0 15.3 16.0 14.9 10.9 11.2 11.7 11.1 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 26.3 26.5 26.4 26.4 38.8 38.0 39.3 39.5 89.7 89.2 88.7 88.4 60.5 60.6 61.7 61.2 33.4 33.0 34.1 34.0 24.1 23.4 24.7 24.8 25.4 25.3 25.6 26.2 29.5 31.3 29.3 30.8 61.4 61.6 62.2 62.0 18.2 18.2 18.1 18.4 20.4 20.1 19.6 19.5 2000 March June Sept Dec 59.0 57.9 61.7 60.1 10.2 10.0 10.6 10.3 16.5 16.1 17.6 17.3 14.8 14.4 15.3 14.7 10.9 10.9 11.3 10.9 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.5 39.7 38.5 39.8 40.0 89.7 89.7 89.7 89.5 62.6 61.9 63.3 62.8 34.8 33.5 35.0 35.2 24.7 23.8 24.5 24.7 26.1 25.7 26.5 26.6 31.7 30.6 30.4 31.4 62.5 62.9 62.7 62.6 18.1 17.8 18.1 18.6 19.5 19.2 19.2 18.8 2001 March June Sept Dec 58.0 58.1 61.8 60.2 9.9 9.6 10.2 9.9 16.7 16.3 17.6 17.5 13.9 14.1 14.7 14.1 10.8 11.2 12.0 11.3 5.7 5.7 6.0 5.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.7 39.8 39.1 40.4 40.9 90.4 89.0 89.5 89.2 63.0 61.5 62.6 63.1 34.9 34.9 35.9 36.4 24.8 24.5 25.8 25.9 26.9 26.4 27.2 27.2 28.0 32.2 32.2 33.9 62.5 63.3 63.5 63.4 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.6 18.2 18.0 58.0 58.1 63.4 9.4 9.6 10.2 16.7 16.3 18.4 13.6 14.1 14.6 10.9 11.2 12.3 6.0 5.7 6.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 26.8 26.8 26.8 40.5 39.6 40.9 89.4 89.4 89.3 63.0 62.2 63.8 36.4 35.6 36.6 25.4 25.0 26.1 27.7 27.2 27.9 31.5 31.7 32.7 63.2 64.2 63.9 18.5 18.2 18.5 18.3 17.7 17.5 { 1971 1976 1981 p 2002 March Junep Septp 1 2 3 p The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no account of the changing age structure of the population. Births outside marriage can be registered by both the mother and father (joint) or by the mother alone (sole). Usual address(es) of parents. Provisional. 53 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 Live births: within marriage, within marriage to remarried women, age of mother and birth order1 Table 3.3 England and Wales Numbers (thousands) and mean age 2 Age of mother at birth Year and quarter All ages Under 20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and over Mean age (years) Age of mother at birth All ages Under 20 Live births within marriage 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and over Mean2 age (years) Live births within marriage to remarried women 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 717.5 530.5 553.5 519.7 487.9 428.2 416.8 404.9 395.3 380.0 61.1 38.1 30.1 17.8 8.9 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.3 263.7 165.6 165.7 138.0 95.6 61.0 54.7 49.1 45.7 43.2 235.7 211.0 201.5 201.3 196.3 157.9 148.8 139.4 130.7 120.7 103.4 86.1 118.7 116.4 135.5 144.2 145.9 145.3 144.6 140.3 42.1 23.9 31.5 39.8 43.8 51.1 53.3 56.7 59.3 60.5 11.6 5.8 6.0 6.4 7.7 8.4 8.9 9.2 9.6 9.9 26.4 26.6 27.2 27.9 28.9 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.6 19.4 26.7 38.8 41.7 39.4 33.3 32.6 31.4 30.2 27.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.9 3.6 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 6.6 10.5 13.4 13.2 10.8 7.2 6.4 5.8 5.1 4.3 6.1 8.7 14.1 15.4 15.8 14.0 13.9 13.1 12.4 11.3 3.4 3.6 6.2 8.7 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.1 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 33.1 30.4 30.9 31.7 32.4 33.2 33.4 33.6 33.9 34.1 2000 2001 365.8 356.5 4.7 4.6 40.3 40.7 111.6 103.1 136.2 133.7 62.7 63.2 10.4 11.1 30.8 30.9 25.8 23.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 3.7 3.1 10.4 9.5 8.9 8.6 2.4 2.4 34.3 34.5 2000 March June Sept Dec 89.7 92.7 93.3 90.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 9.9 9.9 10.2 10.3 27.7 28.5 28.4 27.1 33.2 34.8 34.9 33.2 15.2 15.9 15.9 15.7 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.8 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 34.2 34.2 34.4 34.4 2001 March June Sept Dec 87.6 90.7 91.2 87.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.2 25.9 26.2 26.3 24.7 32.5 34.4 34.4 32.4 15.3 16.0 16.0 15.8 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.8 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 34.4 34.5 34.5 34.5 2002 Marchp Junepp Sept 85.3 88.9 91.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 9.8 10.1 10.5 23.8 24.4 25.3 32.2 34.2 34.6 15.6 16.3 16.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 5.7 5.6 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 34.7 34.7 34.7 First live births Second live births 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 283.6 217.2 224.3 206.9 193.7 168.1 163.0 157.0 155.7 153.4 49.5 30.2 23.6 13.8 6.7 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 135.8 85.4 89.5 74.7 51.2 32.3 28.9 25.9 24.3 23.5 74.8 77.2 77.2 79.3 84.5 71.0 67.2 63.1 60.6 57.4 17.2 19.7 27.8 30.8 40.2 46.6 47.7 48.1 49.5 50.0 5.1 3.9 5.4 7.5 9.7 12.1 13.1 13.8 15.0 16.1 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 23.9 24.8 25.3 26.2 27.5 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 240.8 203.6 205.7 189.2 178.3 158.1 153.8 150.4 146.9 139.5 10.7 7.4 6.1 3.6 2.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 93.6 62.5 59.0 47.5 32.8 20.6 18.5 16.6 15.5 14.4 94.1 91.8 82.7 78.9 73.9 57.3 53.4 50.0 46.4 41.8 31.8 34.7 47.7 45.5 53.0 58.5 59.1 59.4 58.9 56.6 8.9 6.2 9.1 12.3 14.7 18.1 19.2 20.7 22.2 22.6 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 26.2 26.8 27.4 28.0 28.9 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.9 2000 2001 146.5 143.9 3.8 3.8 21.6 22.2 52.7 48.8 49.4 49.7 16.6 16.8 2.4 2.6 29.6 29.6 134.7 132.2 0.8 0.8 13.7 13.7 38.4 35.7 54.8 53.8 23.8 24.8 3.2 3.5 31.1 31.2 2000 March June Sept Dec 35.5 36.3 37.7 37.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.1 11.8 12.2 12.8 12.6 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 33.0 35.2 34.2 32.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 9.5 10.1 9.8 8.9 13.3 14.5 14.0 13.0 5.8 6.2 6.0 5.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 2001 March June Sept Dec 34.7 35.6 37.4 36.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 5.2 5.5 5.8 5.7 12.0 12.1 12.7 12.0 12.0 12.3 12.9 12.5 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 32.7 34.8 33.5 31.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 9.1 9.4 8.9 8.2 13.1 14.3 13.8 12.6 5.9 6.5 6.3 6.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 31.2 31.2 31.3 31.3 p 2002 March Junepp Sept 34.3 35.5 37.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 5.3 5.5 5.9 11.2 11.5 12.3 12.1 12.5 13.3 4.3 4.4 4.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 31.6 33.9 33.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 8.2 8.6 8.5 12.9 14.2 13.9 6.1 6.6 6.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 31.3 31.4 31.4 Fourth and higher order live births3 Third live births 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 111.7 71.0 82.4 80.8 76.1 66.7 65.3 63.2 60.4 56.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 26.6 14.4 14.1 12.7 9.4 6.5 5.8 5.3 4.7 4.2 43.6 29.8 29.5 30.2 26.8 20.5 19.6 18.1 16.4 14.7 27.9 19.5 28.7 25.6 27.5 26.1 26.0 25.1 24.0 22.3 10.4 5.8 8.7 10.5 10.5 11.7 12.0 12.7 13.1 13.0 2.2 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 28.7 28.8 29.5 29.9 30.4 31.1 31.3 31.5 31.8 32.0 81.4 38.8 41.1 42.7 39.8 35.3 34.7 34.2 32.3 30.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 23.2 12.2 12.0 13.0 11.1 9.0 8.6 8.1 7.4 6.8 26.5 12.1 14.5 14.5 14.8 13.1 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.4 17.6 8.0 8.3 9.4 8.9 9.2 9.0 9.4 9.0 8.8 6.5 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 30.7 30.7 31.1 31.2 31.6 32.0 32.2 32.4 32.6 32.7 2000 2001 54.9 52.1 0.1 0.1 4.0 3.9 14.1 12.8 21.1 19.8 13.5 13.2 2.2 2.3 32.1 32.2 29.7 28.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.9 6.4 5.9 10.9 10.4 8.7 8.4 2.7 2.7 32.8 33.0 2000 March June Sept Dec 13.6 14.0 13.9 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.0 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 32.0 32.1 32.2 32.1 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 32.7 32.9 32.9 32.9 2001 March June Sept Dec 13.0 13.3 13.3 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 4.9 5.2 5.1 4.7 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 32.1 32.2 32.3 32.3 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 33.1 32.9 33.0 33.0 2002 Marchp Junepp Sept 12.3 12.5 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 4.6 4.9 4.9 3.2 3.2 3.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 32.2 32.3 32.4 7.0 7.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 32.9 33.1 33.1 1 2 3 p Birth order is based on all live births within marriage to the mother by her present or any former husband. The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no account of the changing age structure of the population. Mean age at birth refers to fourth births only. Provisional. National Statistics 54 Population Trends 111 Table 4.1 Spring 2003 Conceptions: age of women at conception England and Wales (residents) Numbers (thousands) and rates; and percentage terminated by abortion Age of woman at conception Year and quarter All ages Under 16 (a) numbers (thousands) 853.7 7.5 1991 Under 18 Under 20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 and over 40.1 101.6 233.3 281.5 167.5 57.6 12.1 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 819.0 801.6 790.3 816.9 800.4 7.3 7.8 8.1 8.9 8.3 35.8 36.1 37.9 43.5 43.4 87.2 85.4 86.6 94.9 96.0 203.6 190.4 181.1 179.8 167.3 271.7 261.8 250.3 252.6 242.6 181.0 185.0 190.3 200.0 200.9 63.0 66.2 68.7 75.5 78.9 12.6 12.9 13.2 14.1 14.7 1998 1999 2000p 2001 797.0 774.0 767.0 763.3 8.5 7.9 8.1 7.9 44.1 42.0 41.3 41.0 101.6 98.8 97.7 95.9 163.3 157.6 159.0 161.6 232.4 218.5 209.3 199.2 201.4 197.1 195.3 196.6 82.9 86.0 88.7 92.2 15.4 16.0 17.0 17.8 1999 March June Sept Dec 191.5 190.4 194.0 198.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.8 24.9 24.4 24.1 25.4 39.6 39.1 38.4 40.5 54.3 53.8 54.7 55.6 48.4 47.9 50.7 50.2 20.6 21.2 22.1 22.2 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 2000 March June Sept Dec 193.1 188.7 190.0 195.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 10.5 10.4 10.0 10.4 25.1 24.3 23.5 24.7 40.4 39.3 38.4 40.9 53.2 51.5 52.0 52.7 48.3 47.5 49.7 49.8 21.9 21.8 22.2 22.7 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 189.2 187.4 189.3 197.4 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.0 10.2 10.2 10.0 10.6 24.3 24.0 23.1 24.5 40.4 39.8 39.2 42.2 50.0 48.8 49.5 51.0 47.8 47.7 49.9 51.2 22.3 22.8 23.2 23.9 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.7 (b) rates (conceptions per thousand women in age group) 77.7 8.9 44.6 64.1 2001 March p Junep Sept Dec P p 1991 120.2 135.1 90.1 34.4 6.6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 76.2 74.8 73.8 76.2 74.7 8.1 8.3 8.6 9.6 9.0 42.3 41.8 42.0 46.4 46.3 59.7 58.7 58.8 63.1 62.8 110.6 107.4 105.9 110.1 107.1 131.7 128.4 125.1 127.9 125.0 92.4 92.0 92.7 96.2 96.2 36.6 37.6 38.1 40.7 41.4 7.4 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.7 1998 1999 2000 2001P 74.3 72.0 71.0 70.4 9.0 8.3 8.3 8.0 47.6 45.8 44.1 42.5 65.8 63.4 62.8 60.9 107.7 104.0 103.5 102.9 122.2 118.2 115.9 114.5 96.9 95.5 95.6 96.9 42.4 42.9 43.2 44.4 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.6 1999 March June Sept Dec 72.3 71.1 71.6 73.0 8.0 8.5 8.1 8.5 45.8 45.6 44.7 46.2 65.0 62.9 61.5 64.7 106.0 103.5 100.3 105.7 117.9 116.4 117.8 120.3 94,8 93.0 97.5 96.8 42.0 42.5 43.5 43.6 8.8 9.3 9.1 9.2 2000 March June Sept Dec 72.1 70.3 70,0 71.8 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.0 45.6 44.8 42.2 43.7 65.0 62.8 60.1 62.9 106.3 103.2 99.1 105.1 117.3 114.3 115.1 117.7 94.7 93.4 96.8 97.2 43.4 43.0 42.9 43.9 9.4 9.6 9.3 9.5 70.9 69.4 69.3 72.2 7.8 8.4 7.7 8.0 43.3 42.7 41.1 43.5 63.0 61.1 58.1 61.8 105.3 101.8 99.0 106.5 114.9 111.9 112.9 116.3 95.3 94.3 97.7 100.1 43.8 44.1 44.3 45.6 9.7 9.5 9.4 10.0 2001 March Junepp Sept Dec P p (c) percentage terminated by abortion 19.4 51.1 1991 39.9 34.5 22.2 13.4 13.7 22.0 41.6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.8 21.3 49.9 50.3 47.6 49.2 49.7 39.2 39.8 38.7 40.0 40.6 34.3 34.7 34.6 36.2 36.8 22.8 23.4 24.2 25.7 26.7 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.6 16.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 14.1 14.2 21.5 21.1 20.7 21.2 21.0 40.2 40.9 38.0 37.6 38.0 1998 1999 2000 2001P 22.3 22.6 22.7 23.2 52.4 52.6 54.0 55.7 42.0 43.0 44.2 45.7 37.8 38.6 39.3 40.3 27.8 28.5 29.2 29.7 17.1 17.5 17.7 18.3 14.9 14.7 14.5 14.6 21.5 21.2 20.5 20.4 37.9 37.0 35.4 34.6 1999 March June Sept Dec 22.3 23.0 22.1 22.8 51.4 52.9 52.7 53.5 42.0 43.5 43.1 43.6 38.0 38.6 38.7 39.1 27.9 28.6 28.5 29.2 17.2 18.0 17.2 17.7 14.7 15.5 14.1 14.7 21.6 21.5 20.6 21.2 36.2 37.8 37.3 36.6 2000 March June Sept Dec 22.9 23.2 22.0 22.8 53.8 55.1 53.2 54.0 44.3 44.4 43.8 44.1 39.6 39.2 38.7 39.8 29.6 29.7 28.2 29.2 17.7 18.1 17.4 17.5 14.5 15.1 14.0 14.4 20.4 20.9 19.8 20.8 35.3 35.1 35.4 35.9 23.4 23.8 22.5 22.9 54.3 58.8 55.0 54.7 44.9 47.0 45.7 45.1 40.1 41.1 40.1 40.0 29.8 30.3 29.2 29.5 18.5 18.6 18.1 18.0 14.8 15.3 13.8 14.3 20.7 21.0 20.0 20.2 34.9 36.0 33.5 34.0 2001 March Junepp Sept Dec P Notes: p Conceptions are estimates derived from birth registrations and abortion notifications. Rates for women of all ages, under 16, under 18, under 20 and 40 and over are based on the population of women aged 15–44, 13–15, 15–17, 15–19 and 40–44 respectively. For a quarterly analysis of conceptions under 18 for local authority areas see the National Statistics website, www.statistics.gov.uk. p Provisional. 55 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Table 5.1 Spring 2003 Expectation of life at birth and selected age Constituent countries of the United Kingdom Years Males Year At birth Females At age Year 5 20 30 50 60 70 80 At birth At age 5 20 30 50 60 70 80 United Kingdom 1981 1986 1991 70.8 71.9 73.2 66.9 67.8 68.9 52.3 53.2 54.3 42.7 43.6 44.7 24.1 24.9 26.0 16.3 16.8 17.7 10.1 10.5 11.1 5.8 6.0 6.4 1981 1986 1991 76.8 77.7 78.8 72.7 73.5 74.4 57.9 58.7 59.6 48.1 48.9 49.7 29.2 29.8 30.7 20.8 21.2 21.9 13.3 13.8 14.4 7.5 7.9 8.4 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 73.9 74.1 74.3 74.6 74.8 69.5 69.7 69.9 70.2 70.4 54.8 55.0 55.2 55.5 55.7 45.2 45.5 45.7 45.9 46.1 26.5 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.4 18.1 18.4 18.5 18.8 19.0 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.8 11.9 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 79.2 79.4 79.5 79.6 79.8 74.7 74.9 75.0 75.1 75.3 59.9 60.1 60.1 60.3 60.4 50.1 50.3 50.3 50.5 50.6 31.0 31.2 31.2 31.4 31.5 22.2 22.4 22.4 22.6 22.6 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 1999 2000p 75.1 75.3 70.7 70.9 55.9 56.1 46.4 46.6 27.7 27.9 19.2 19.5 12.1 12.2 6.9 7.0 1999 2000p 80.0 80.1 75.5 75.6 60.6 60.8 50.8 51.0 31.7 31.8 22.8 23.0 14.9 15.0 8.6 8.6 England and Wales 1981 71.0 1986 72.1 1991 73.4 67.1 68.0 69.1 52.5 53.4 54.5 42.9 43.8 44.9 24.3 25.0 26.2 16.4 16.9 17.9 10.1 10.6 11.2 5.8 6.1 6.4 1981 1986 1991 77.0 77.9 79.0 72.9 73.6 74.6 58.1 58.9 59.8 48.3 49.0 49.9 29.4 30.0 30.8 20.9 21.4 22.1 13.4 13.9 14.5 7.5 7.9 8.4 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 74.1 74.4 74.6 74.8 75.1 69.7 70.0 70.2 70.4 70.7 55.0 55.2 55.4 55.7 55.9 45.4 45.7 45.9 46.1 46.4 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.0 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 79.4 79.6 79.7 79.8 80.0 74.9 75.1 75.2 75.3 75.5 60.1 60.3 60.3 60.5 60.6 50.3 50.4 50.5 50.7 50.8 31.2 31.3 31.4 31.6 31.7 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.8 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.9 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 1999 2000p 75.4 75.6 70.9 71.1 56.2 56.4 46.6 46.8 27.9 28.1 19.3 19.6 12.2 12.3 7.0 7.9 1999 2000p 80.2 80.3 75.7 75.8 60.8 60.9 51.0 51.1 31.9 32.0 23.0 23.1 15.0 15.1 8.7 8.6 England 1981 1986 1991 71.1 72.2 73.4 67.1 68.1 69.1 52.5 53.4 54.5 42.9 43.8 44.9 24.3 25.1 26.2 16.4 17.0 17.9 10.1 10.6 11.2 5.8 6.1 6.4 1981 1986 1991 77.0 77.9 79.0 72.9 73.7 74.6 58.2 58.9 59.8 48.4 49.1 49.9 29.4 30.0 30.9 20.9 21.4 22.1 13.4 13.9 14.5 7.5 7.9 8.4 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 74.1 74.4 74.6 74.9 75.1 69.7 70.0 70.2 70.5 70.7 55.0 55.3 55.5 55.7 56.0 45.5 45.7 45.9 46.2 46.4 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.0 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 79.4 79.6 79.7 79.9 80.0 74.9 75.1 75.2 75.4 75.5 60.1 60.3 60.4 60.5 60.6 50.3 50.5 50.6 50.7 50.8 31.2 31.4 31.4 31.6 31.7 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.8 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.9 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 1999 2000p 75.4 75.6 71.0 71.2 56.2 56.4 46.7 46.9 27.9 28.2 19.4 19.6 12.2 12.4 7.0 7.0 1999 2000p 80.2 80.3 75.7 75.8 60.8 61.0 51.0 51.2 31.9 32.0 23.0 23.1 15.0 15.1 8.7 8.6 Wales 1981 1986 1991 70.4 71.6 73.2 66.5 67.5 68.9 51.9 52.9 54.2 42.2 43.3 44.6 23.6 24.6 25.9 15.8 16.6 17.6 9.7 10.4 11.0 5.5 6.0 6.4 1981 1986 1991 76.4 77.6 78.9 72.3 73.3 74.4 57.5 58.5 59.6 47.7 48.7 49.8 28.9 29.7 30.7 20.4 21.1 21.9 13.1 13.8 14.4 7.4 7.8 8.4 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 73.5 73.8 74.0 74.4 74.5 69.1 69.4 69.5 69.9 70.1 54.4 54.7 54.8 55.2 55.4 44.9 45.2 45.4 45.7 45.9 26.2 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.1 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.7 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.8 6.8 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 79.0 79.2 79.2 79.4 79.5 74.5 74.7 74.7 74.9 75.0 59.7 59.8 59.8 60.0 60.1 49.8 50.0 50.0 50.2 50.3 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.2 22.0 22.2 22.2 22.4 22.4 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 1999 2000p 74.8 74.9 70.4 70.5 55.7 55.7 46.2 46.3 27.4 27.6 19.0 19.1 12.0 12.0 6.9 6.8 1999 2000p 79.7 79.8 75.1 75.2 60.3 60.4 50.5 50.6 31.4 31.5 22.6 22.6 14.7 14.7 8.6 8.4 Scotland 1981 1986 1991 69.1 70.2 71.4 65.2 66.0 67.1 50.6 51.4 52.5 41.1 41.9 43.0 22.9 23.5 24.6 15.4 15.8 16.6 9.5 9.9 10.4 5.5 5.7 6.1 1981 1986 1991 75.3 76.2 77.1 71.2 71.9 72.6 56.4 57.1 57.8 46.7 47.3 48.1 27.9 28.4 29.1 19.7 20.1 20.6 12.7 13.0 13.4 7.2 7.5 7.8 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 71.9 72.1 72.2 72.4 72.6 67.5 67.7 67.8 67.9 68.1 52.8 53.1 53.1 53.3 53.5 43.4 43.6 43.7 43.9 44.1 24.9 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.7 16.9 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.7 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 77.4 77.6 77.8 77.9 78.1 72.9 73.2 73.2 73.4 73.5 58.1 58.3 58.4 58.6 58.7 48.3 48.6 48.7 48.8 48.9 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 20.8 21.0 21.1 21.3 21.3 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 1999 2000p 72.8 73.1 68.4 68.6 53.7 53.9 44.3 44.6 25.9 26.3 17.9 18.2 11.3 11.5 6.5 6.6 1999 2000 78.2 78.6 73.7 74.0 58.8 59.2 49.1 49.4 30.1 30.5 21.4 21.8 13.9 14.1 7.9 8.1 Northern Ireland 1981 1986 1991 69.2 70.9 72.6 65.4 66.8 68.2 50.9 52.2 53.6 41.5 42.7 44.1 23.2 24.2 25.5 15.6 16.4 17.3 9.7 10.4 11.0 5.8 6.2 6.4 1981 1986 1991 75.5 77.1 78.4 71.6 72.9 74.0 56.8 58.1 59.2 47.1 48.3 49.4 28.3 29.3 30.3 20.0 20.8 21.6 12.8 13.4 14.2 7.3 7.8 8.3 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 73.1 73.5 73.8 74.2 74.3 68.8 69.1 69.4 69.7 69.8 54.2 54.5 54.7 55.0 55.1 44.7 45.0 45.2 45.5 45.6 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.9 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.5 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.5 11.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 78.6 78.9 79.2 79.5 79.5 74.2 74.5 74.7 75.0 75.0 59.4 59.6 59.9 60.2 60.2 49.6 49.8 50.0 50.3 50.4 30.6 30.8 30.9 31.2 31.3 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.4 22.4 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 1999 2000 74.5 74.8 70.0 70.4 55.4 55.7 45.9 46.2 27.2 27.6 18.7 19.1 11.7 11.9 6.6 6.6 1999 2000 79.6 79.8 75.1 75.2 60.3 60.4 50.5 50.6 31.4 31.5 22.5 22.6 14.6 14.6 8.3 8.2 Note: Figures from 1981 are calculated from the population estimates revised in the light of the 1991 Census. All figures are based on a three-year period; Notes to tables for further information. P provisional See Notes to tables on page 66; See also ‘inbrief’ on page 3. National Statistics 56 Population Trends 111 Table 6.1 Spring 2003 Deaths: age and sex England and Wales Numbers (thousands) and rates Age group Year and quarter All ages Under 11 1–4 5–9 10–14 15–19 20–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65–74 75–84 85 and over Numbers (thousands) Males 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 300.1 289.0 287.9 277.6 268.7 4.88 4.12 3.72 2.97 2.27 0.88 0.65 0.57 0.55 0.44 0.68 0.45 0.33 0.34 0.24 0.64 0.57 0.38 0.35 0.29 1.66 1.73 1.43 1.21 0.93 1.66 1.58 1.75 1.76 1.41 3.24 3.18 3.10 3.69 4.06 5.93 5.54 5.77 6.16 5.84 20.4 16.9 14.4 13.3 13.6 52.0 46.9 43.6 34.9 30.1 98.7 92.2 84.4 77.2 71.0 80.3 86.8 96.2 95.8 90.7 29.0 28.5 32.2 39.3 47.8 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 264.9 264.7 264.3 255.5 252.4 2.14 2.07 2.08 1.89 1.81 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.34 0.32 0.27 0.24 0.22 0.22 0.19 0.33 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.95 0.88 0.90 0.87 0.88 1.44 1.29 1.27 1.22 1.27 3.94 4.01 3.85 3.76 3.63 5.71 5.90 5.93 6.05 6.07 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.3 28.9 29.1 28.7 27.9 27.5 68.0 66.1 64.3 60.6 57.5 90.2 90.5 90.4 87.1 87.0 49.1 50.4 52.3 51.9 52.7 Females 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 298.5 288.9 293.3 292.5 291.5 3.46 2.90 2.59 2.19 1.69 0.59 0.53 0.49 0.44 0.32 0.45 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.18 0.42 0.37 0.27 0.22 0.20 0.62 0.65 0.56 0.46 0.43 0.67 0.64 0.67 0.64 0.51 1.94 1.82 1.65 1.73 1.85 4.04 3.74 3.83 3.70 3.66 12.8 10.5 8.8 8.4 8.9 29.6 27.2 25.8 21.3 18.2 67.1 62.8 58.4 54.2 50.2 104.7 103.6 106.5 103.3 96.7 72.1 73.9 83.6 95.7 108.7 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 290.4 290.3 291.8 280.1 277.9 1.66 1.56 1.55 1.49 1.43 0.30 0.31 0.30 0.25 0.27 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.19 0.21 0.19 0.22 0.18 0.18 0.43 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.47 1.72 1.72 1.67 1.69 1.59 3.74 3.68 3.79 3.87 3.77 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.1 8.9 17.9 17.9 18.0 17.6 17.6 48.3 46.9 45.1 42.2 40.5 95.5 94.7 93.9 89.3 88.8 110.9 113.2 117.2 113.4 113.9 Rates (deaths per 1,000 population in each age group) Males 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 12.5 12.0 11.8 11.2 10.8 16.2 12.6 11.0 8.3 6.8 0.65 0.53 0.44 0.40 0.32 0.34 0.27 0.21 0.21 0.14 0.31 0.29 0.23 0.23 0.18 0.88 0.82 0.72 0.72 0.60 0.96 0.83 0.83 0.89 0.87 0.92 0.89 0.88 0.94 1.02 2.09 1.83 1.68 1.76 1.67 6.97 6.11 5.27 4.56 4.06 19.6 17.7 16.6 13.9 11.9 50.3 45.6 42.8 38.1 34.5 116.4 105.2 101.2 93.1 85.0 243.2 226.5 215.4 205.6 199.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.1 10.0 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.1 5.9 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.26 0.25 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.20 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.61 0.55 0.56 0.54 0.53 0.94 0.87 0.85 0.81 0.81 1.00 1.04 1.02 1.01 1.00 1.61 1.63 1.60 1.60 1.58 3.99 4.00 4.00 3.93 3.90 11.4 11.3 10.9 10.4 10.0 33.3 32.4 31.6 29.8 28.1 82.4 81.1 80.0 76.0 74.2 197.1 193.9 194.7 187.7 186.6 2000 Dec 10.1 6.1 0.26 0.11 0.16 0.54 0.72 1.00 1.56 3.97 10.4 29.4 75.9 189.2 2001 March June Sept Dec 10.9 9.7 9.2 10.0 6.5 5.5 5.8 6.0 0.26 0.27 0.22 0.24 0.11 0.11 0.14 0.08 0.16 0.18 0.13 0.17 0.53 0.50 0.54 0.57 0.85 0.81 0.83 0.77 1.02 1.02 1.00 0.97 1.62 1.53 1.60 1.56 4.10 3.89 3.73 3.89 10.8 9.8 9.6 10.1 30.6 27.3 26.3 28.1 81.8 72.8 67.6 74.7 211.1 178.9 166.0 190.9 20022 March P Junep Sept P 10.9 9.8 9.3 6.5 6.0 5.5 0.30 0.24 0.25 0.13 0.10 0.12 0.17 0.16 0.14 0.51 0.62 0.50 0.84 0.84 0.78 1.01 0.96 0.98 1.60 1.60 1.61 3.92 3.76 3.76 10.4 10.0 9.8 29.9 27.2 25.7 82.3 73.0 69.1 217.8 182.6 166.6 Females 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 11.8 11.3 11.4 11.2 11.1 12.2 9.4 8.0 6.4 5.3 0.46 0.46 0.40 0.33 0.25 0.24 0.19 0.17 0.16 0.10 0.21 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.13 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.40 0.35 0.33 0.33 0.31 0.56 0.52 0.47 0.44 0.46 1.46 1.26 1.12 1.05 1.04 4.30 3.80 3.24 2.87 2.63 10.1 9.5 9.2 8.2 7.1 26.0 24.1 23.4 21.8 20.6 74.6 66.2 62.5 58.7 55.8 196.6 178.2 169.4 161.6 159.1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.5 10.4 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.9 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.20 0.22 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.28 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.42 1.04 1.00 1.01 1.01 0.96 2.64 2.64 2.62 2.63 2.57 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.3 20.2 19.8 19.3 18.1 17.4 54.6 53.9 53.4 50.9 50.2 160.0 159.3 162.8 155.4 155.3 2000 Dec 10.6 5.0 0.18 0.11 0.12 0.24 0.30 0.43 1.03 2.62 6.4 18.0 51.3 156.7 2001 March June Sept Dec 11.7 10.0 9.4 10.5 5.1 4.6 4.9 5.2 0.30 0.22 0.15 0.22 0.14 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.14 0.28 0.25 0.22 0.22 0.27 0.32 0.25 0.35 0.48 0.40 0.41 0.41 1.01 0.93 0.97 0.93 2.67 2.58 2.47 2.58 6.6 6.3 5.9 6.3 19.2 17.0 15.9 17.7 56.2 48.8 45.5 50.7 179.6 147.3 137.3 157.2 20022 March p Junep Sept P 11.7 10.1 9.6 4.8 4.5 4.0 0.17 0.20 0.19 0.11 0.07 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.13 0.27 0.23 0.23 0.27 0.35 0.26 0.40 0.42 0.46 0.99 0.96 0.92 2.55 2.47 2.44 6.5 6.2 6.2 18.3 16.9 16.2 56.2 48.9 46.8 183.3 148.4 140.7 Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year up to 1992 and the numbers of deaths occurring in each year from 1993. 1 Rates per 1,000 live births. 2 The quarters of 2002 are based on the mid-2001 population estimates. p Provisional registrations. 57 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Table 6.2 Spring 2003 Deaths: subnational Government Office Regions of England1 Year and quarter North East Rates North West Yorkshire and the Humber East Midlands West Midlands East London South East South West Total deaths (deaths per 1,000 population of all ages) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 11.9 11.8 11.6 12.0 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.2 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.5 10.8 10.7 1.10 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.8 10.5 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.3 9.8 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.9 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.5 12.0 11.7 11.7 11.4 11.6 2000 2001 10.9 11.2 10.7 11.1 10.3 10.4 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.9 8.4 8.1 9.8 9.9 11.3 11.0 2000 Dec 11.1 10.9 10.4 10.1 10.0 9.8 8.2 9.8 10.8 2001 March June Sept Dec 12.5 10.6 10.3 11.3 12.4 10.8 10.0 11.2 11.6 10.1 9.4 10.6 11.4 9.9 9.3 10.2 11.5 9.9 9.3 10.3 10.9 9.6 9.1 10.0 9.1 7.8 7.4 8.1 10.8 9.7 9.2 10.0 12.0 10.7 10.1 11.2 20022 March p Junep Sept P 12.4 11.1 10.3 12.3 10.8 10.0 11.5 10.2 9.8 11.2 9.9 9.4 11.2 9.9 9.6 11.1 9.7 9.2 8.7 7.7 7.5 11.1 9.6 9.2 12.2 10.9 10.4 Infant mortality (deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 6.7 6.2 5.8 5.0 5.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.5 6.9 6.5 6.5 6.9 6.3 5.7 6.3 5.7 5.6 6.0 7.1 6.8 7.0 6.5 6.9 5.2 5.3 4.8 5.0 4.6 6.4 6.3 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.2 5.3 5.0 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.5 5.8 4.8 4.7 2000 2001 6.5 5.4 6.2 5.8 7.3 5.5 5.4 4.9 6.8 6.4 4.4 4.5 5.4 6.1 4.4 4.2 4.7 5.4 2000 Dec 5.8 5.8 7.2 6.2 5.8 4.4 5.6 4.5 5.7 2001 March June Sept Dec 6.1 5.1 5.5 4.7 6.4 5.7 5.4 5.9 6.4 5.4 4.1 6.2 4.7 5.6 5.3 4.2 6.7 6.8 5.5 6.7 4.0 4.5 4.6 5.0 6.4 4.9 6.8 6.5 4.7 3.8 4.6 3.8 6.4 4.3 4.8 6.1 2002 March p Junep Sept P 4.3 5.7 4.6 7.1 5.6 4.1 6.6 5.5 5.8 6.6 5.4 4.9 6.5 6.1 6.3 4.2 5.2 4.2 5.7 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.6 3.9 4.9 4.2 3.8 Neonatal mortality (deaths under 4 weeks per 1,000 live births) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 4.7 4.1 3.7 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.1 3.8 4.2 3.7 3.7 4.3 5.3 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.8 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.0 4.3 4.4 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.4 2.9 3.2 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.3 3.2 2000 2001 4.4 3.5 4.3 3.8 5.0 3.2 4.1 3.4 5.0 4.4 3.0 2.9 3.7 4.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.7 2000 Dec 3.7 3.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 2.8 3.6 3.2 3.8 2001 March June Sept Dec 3.1 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.7 4.3 4.2 3.0 2.2 3.4 2.7 3.9 3.9 3.0 4.8 4.5 4.0 4.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.2 4.3 3.3 4.7 4.1 3.2 2.8 3.6 2.1 4.3 3.1 3.2 4.2 2002 March p Junep Sept P 2.5 4.6 2.6 4.4 3.9 2.5 4.2 3.3 3.9 4.8 4.2 3.7 5.0 4.6 4.6 3.1 3.4 2.6 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.6 3.4 3.0 2.8 Perinatal mortality (stillbirths and deaths under 1 week per 1,000 total births)3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 10.5 9.2 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.6 8.9 8.7 8.7 9.2 8.3 8.3 9.2 8.3 8.5 8.7 7.7 8.0 7.8 10.1 10.2 9.6 9.3 9.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.0 9.7 9.6 9.0 9.0 9.0 7.7 7.8 7.3 6.8 6.9 7.4 7.5 8.7 7.3 7.8 2000 2001 8.5 7.8 8.6 8.7 9.6 7.5 7.8 7.9 9.6 9.1 7.1 7.1 9.0 8.9 6.6 6.9 6.6 7.2 2000 Dec 7.9 8.7 9.5 9.1 9.4 7.7 8.7 5.7 7.2 2001 March June Sept Dec 7.6 7.9 8.0 7.6 7.7 8.8 8.7 9.4 9.7 7.3 5.8 7.5 6.8 8.7 7.7 8.3 9.8 8.6 8.7 9.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 6.8 9.4 8.9 8.4 8.9 6.7 6.2 7.6 6.9 7.8 7.1 5.4 8.7 2002 March p Junep Sept P 6.3 7.0 7.8 8.7 8.6 8.1 10.3 9.5 7.8 9.2 8.7 7.7 11.4 9.9 9.3 7.2 7.4 7.5 9.0 9.9 8.8 7.7 6.9 6.3 6.8 6.9 6.8 Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths occurring in each year with the exception of provisional data which relate to registrations. 1. The regions presented in this table have changed from the Regional Offices of the Department of Health to the Government Office Regions. See ‘In brief’ Health Statistics Quarterly no.15 for details. 2. Crude death rates for the quarters of 2002 are based on the mid-2001 population estimates. 3. In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth was changed, from a baby born dead after 28 completed weeks of gestation or more, to one born dead after 24 completed weeks of gestation or more. p Provisional registrations. National Statistics 58 Population Trends 111 Table 7.1 Spring 2003 International migration: age and sex United Kingdom Numbers (thousands) All ages Year and quarter Persons Males Inflow 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 200 191 153 250 337 103 100 83 120 162 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 321 321 331 341 402 1999 2000 0–14 Persons Males Females 97 91 71 130 175 33 32 30 45 49 17 16 16 22 21 17 17 14 23 28 165 176 165 177 214 156 145 167 164 187 36 30 33 41 35 22 21 14 20 16 450 482 248 274 202 208 34 28 1999 Sept Dec 179 86 102 42 77 45 2000 March June Sept Dec 100 98 188 97 59 51 109 54 2001 March p Junep 100 115 Outflow 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 Females Persons 65 64 48 79 110 28 32 24 34 50 37 32 24 45 60 81 77 60 101 145 14 9 19 21 18 102 116 119 135 139 43 55 52 61 68 59 61 67 73 71 20 14 14 14 161 162 80 82 15 4 10 1 5 3 72 28 41 47 79 42 7 4 12 4 4 2 6 2 3 3 6 2 56 68 44 47 8 9 4 6 240 210 233 213 264 124 118 133 107 134 116 93 100 106 130 51 40 49 37 43 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 213 212 238 249 224 104 113 117 134 113 109 99 121 115 111 1999 2000 268 299 144 165 86 66 2000 March June Sept Dec 2001 March p Junep Males 45 and over Females Persons Males Females 48 43 34 49 76 33 34 26 51 69 21 18 15 25 33 10 9 9 16 15 11 9 7 10 18 153 148 148 137 202 82 83 81 79 115 71 64 67 57 87 30 28 31 28 26 18 17 18 16 15 12 11 13 13 11 81 80 225 248 130 151 96 97 30 44 18 27 12 17 36 15 36 13 82 48 49 22 32 26 10 7 6 4 4 3 32 30 70 32 16 14 38 15 16 17 32 17 51 51 91 53 31 29 56 32 20 22 35 21 10 12 14 7 7 6 8 5 3 6 6 3 4 3 29 32 17 17 12 15 57 62 30 36 27 26 6 12 5 9 2 3 26 20 25 17 19 24 21 24 20 24 64 52 51 47 67 28 26 29 19 34 36 25 22 28 33 99 97 108 98 124 57 59 64 55 64 42 38 44 43 60 27 21 25 32 31 12 12 14 17 17 15 9 11 15 14 28 31 36 27 23 17 15 15 14 14 12 16 21 12 9 54 60 55 76 62 21 26 20 39 25 33 34 35 37 36 105 94 127 122 115 55 57 70 66 61 51 37 57 56 55 25 26 21 24 24 11 14 13 14 13 14 12 8 9 11 124 134 26 24 19 10 7 14 76 74 36 39 40 34 135 166 72 96 63 70 31 35 17 19 15 16 44 36 43 30 12 4 9 2 2 2 27 18 12 9 15 9 39 36 19 21 19 15 9 8 3 4 6 4 64 60 104 71 36 38 56 34 28 23 47 36 6 4 9 4 3 2 4 2 3 3 6 2 12 16 30 16 6 10 17 6 6 5 12 10 38 36 49 44 24 23 26 24 14 13 23 20 8 4 16 6 4 3 9 3 4 2 6 3 52 57 27 29 25 28 4 6 2 3 2 3 11 12 4 6 6 6 30 30 16 16 14 14 7 8 4 4 3 4 – 40 – 19 – 79 + 37 + 73 – 22 – 18 – 50 + 13 + 28 – 19 –1 – 29 + 24 + 45 – 17 –8 – 19 +8 +6 – 10 –4 –9 +5 +2 –8 –4 – 10 +3 +4 +1 + 12 –2 + 32 + 43 – +6 –5 + 15 + 16 +1 +7 +2 + 18 + 27 – 18 – 20 – 48 +3 + 22 – 10 – 16 – 31 –- 5 + 12 –9 –4 – 18 +8 + 10 –6 –3 – 10 –7 +2 –2 –3 –5 –1 –2 –4 – –4 –6 +4 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 + 109 + 109 + 93 + 92 + 178 + 61 + 63 + 47 + 43 + 101 + 48 + 46 + 46 + 49 + 77 +8 –2 –3 + 14 + 12 +6 +5 –1 +6 +3 +3 –7 –2 +8 +9 + 48 + 55 + 64 + 58 + 77 + 22 + 29 + 32 + 22 + 43 + 27 + 27 + 32 + 36 + 35 + 48 + 53 + 21 + 15 + 86 + 27 + 26 + 11 + 13 + 54 + 21 + 27 + 10 +1 + 32 +5 +2 + 10 +5 +2 +7 +3 +4 +1 +2 –2 –1 +6 +3 – 1999 2000 + 182 + 183 + 103 +109 + 78 + 74 +8 +4 +1 +4 +7 – + 85 + 89 + 44 + 43 + 41 + 46 + 90 + 82 + 58 + 55 + 33 + 27 –1 +9 +1 +8 –3 +1 1999 Sept Dec + 93 + 20 + 58 +5 + 35 + 15 +3 – +1 –1 +2 +1 + 46 +9 + 24 +5 + 21 +4 + 43 + 12 + 30 +1 + 13 + 11 +1 –2 +3 – –2 –1 2000 March June Sept Dec + 35 + 38 + 84 + 26 + 22 + 14 + 53 + 20 + 13 + 24 + 32 +6 +1 – +3 – +1 – +2 +1 – – +1 – + 20 + 14 + 41 + 16 + 11 +3 + 21 +9 + 10 + 11 + 20 +6 + 13 + 15 + 42 +9 +7 +7 + 30 +9 +6 +9 + 12 +1 +2 +8 –1 +1 +3 +4 –1 +2 –2 +4 –1 –1 2001 March p Junep + 49 + 58 + 29 + 39 + 19 + 20 +4 +3 +2 +3 +2 – + 18 + 20 + 13 + 11 +5 +9 + 27 + 32 + 14 + 20 + 13 + 12 –1 +4 – +5 –1 –1 Balance 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 Persons 25–44 Males 1999 Sept Dec Females 15–24 p Provisional. Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and prior to 1991 exclude migration between the UK and the Irish Republic.They also exclude persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in this table include all three categories of migrants using data from the Home Office and the Irish Central Statistics Office. For adjustments required to pre -1991 figures, see Notes to Tables. These statistics are subject to revision in light of the Census results. See Notes to tables on page 66. 59 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Table 7.2 Spring 2003 International migration: country of last or next residence United Kingdom Numbers (thousands) Commonwealth countries Other foreign countries All countries European Union1 Australia, New Zealand, Canada South Africa India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka2 Pakistan2 Caribbean Other USA Middle East3 Other3 Inflow 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 200 191 153 250 337 21 33 25 72 94 52 40 20 30 49 8 9 3 18 8 24 15 18 16 18 : 12 9 10 14 5 4 3 5 5 36 32 19 25 43 22 16 17 26 27 – 7 11 15 11 31 23 27 34 67 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 321 321 331 341 401 96 89 98 103 106 35 41 41 45 71 10 5 12 14 22 17 18 16 23 19 10 9 12 9 10 3 3 5 5 6 41 42 35 34 34 32 29 35 25 40 12 14 14 15 13 65 72 64 67 81 1999 2000 450 482 99 96 65 66 30 23 26 35 11 15 6 6 37 49 31 25 15 28 130 139 1999 Sept Dec 179 86 45 17 17 13 6 8 9 5 4 2 2 1 16 7 14 5 7 3 59 25 2000 March June Sept Dec 100 98 188 97 24 18 41 13 16 15 16 19 4 4 12 3 8 9 11 6 2 3 6 4 1 1 2 1 6 10 21 11 4 6 10 5 4 4 11 5 32 27 59 28 2001 Marchp Junep 100 115 16 21 19 21 3 6 8 9 3 6 2 2 9 11 7 5 6 5 28 31 Outflow 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 240 210 232 213 264 31 39 33 62 92 99 63 78 50 56 21 21 23 2 7 8 4 2 4 5 : 2 1 2 3 8 3 3 2 2 23 17 20 13 19 17 21 25 34 34 : 6 23 16 13 34 33 23 28 34 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 213 212 238 249 224 71 72 90 90 81 40 45 51 50 49 6 6 5 8 6 2 2 4 4 3 3 2 1 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 17 13 21 20 13 26 29 25 27 26 11 9 6 11 7 33 33 33 34 36 1999 2000 268 299 99 99 64 73 8 9 2 3 – 2 2 2 13 14 34 34 9 13 36 49 86 66 39 16 17 23 3 2 – 1 – – 1 1 4 3 10 9 2 3 11 10 2000 March June Sept Dec 64 60 104 71 20 29 36 15 17 11 23 22 2 1 2 3 1 – 1 1 – – 1 – 1 – – 1 3 1 5 4 9 5 13 8 2 2 5 4 9 10 18 12 2001 Marchp Junep 52 57 15 22 19 15 2 2 1 1 – 1 – – 1 4 4 5 1 1 9 6 – 40 – 19 – 79 + 37 + 73 – 10 –6 –8 +9 +2 – 46 – 23 – 58 – 21 –6 – 13 – 12 – 20 + 16 +2 + 16 + 12 + 15 + 12 + 13 : + 10 +8 +8 + 11 –3 – +1 +3 +4 + 14 + 15 -2 + 12 + 24 +6 –4 –8 –8 –7 : +1 – 12 – –2 –3 – 10 +5 +6 + 33 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 + 109 + 109 + 93 + 92 + 178 + 25 + 18 +7 + 13 + 24 –5 –4 – 10 –5 + 22 +4 –1 +7 +6 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 13 + 19 + 15 +7 +8 + 11 +7 +9 – +1 +4 +2 +5 + 24 + 29 + 14 + 14 + 21 +6 – + 10 –2 + 14 +1 +5 +8 +4 +6 + 31 + 39 + 30 + 33 + 45 1999 2000 + 182 + 183 – –3 +1 –8 + 22 + 15 + 24 + 32 + 11 + 13 +4 +4 + 24 + 35 –3 –9 +6 + 14 + 94 + 91 1999 Sept Dec + 93 + 20 +6 +1 – –9 +3 +6 +9 +5 +4 +2 +1 – + 12 +4 +4 –4 +5 – + 49 + 15 2000 March June Sept Dec + 35 + 38 + 84 + 26 +4 – 11 +5 –1 –1 +4 –7 –3 +2 +3 + 10 – +6 +9 + 10 +5 +1 +3 +5 +4 +1 +1 +2 – +3 +9 + 16 +7 –5 +2 –3 –3 +2 +1 +5 +2 + 23 + 17 + 41 + 15 2001 Marchp Junep + 49 + 58 – –1 – +6 +1 +4 +7 +8 +3 +5 +2 +2 +8 +7 +2 –1 +5 +5 + 20 + 25 Year and quarter 1999 Sept Dec Balance 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 p Provisional. Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and prior to 1991 exclude migration between the UK and the Irish Republic.They also exclude persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in this table include all three categories of migrants using data from the Home Office and the Irish Central Statistics Office. For adjustments required to pre -1991 figures, see Notes to tables. 1 For 1971 the European Union figures are for the original six countries only. From 1976 onwards the European Union is as currently constituted. 2 For 1971 Pakistan is included with India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. 3 For 1971 Middle East is included in the Other Category of Other Foreign Countries. These statistics are subject to revision in light of the Census results. See Notes to tables on page 66. National Statistics 60 Population Trends 111 Table 7.3 Spring 2003 International migration: citizenship United Kingdom Numbers (thousands) Citizenship (numbers) British citizens as percentage of all Year and quarter All countries British Non-British European Union1 Commonwealth Other citizens foreign All Old New Inflow 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 200 191 153 250 337 92 87 60 120 117 108 104 93 130 220 .. 19 12 36 50 53 57 43 50 88 17 17 12 19 29 36 40 31 31 58 54 28 38 44 82 46 45 39 48 35 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 321 321 331 341 401 118 91 104 97 111 204 229 228 244 290 48 59 69 71 78 81 88 83 97 113 24 30 32 35 60 57 58 51 62 53 74 83 75 76 100 37 28 31 28 28 1999 2000 450 482 118 106 332 376 66 63 123 151 57 60 66 91 143 163 26 22 1999 Sept Dec 179 86 41 26 138 60 32 10 40 23 13 11 28 12 66 27 23 30 2000 March June Sept Dec 100 98 188 97 18 31 39 18 81 67 149 79 19 7 28 10 29 29 54 37 13 10 21 16 15 19 23 21 34 31 67 32 18 32 21 18 2001 March p Junep 100 115 25 27 75 89 9 11 33 43 14 20 19 23 33 35 25 23 Outflow 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 240 210 232 213 264 171 137 164 132 141 69 73 68 81 123 .. 18 16 13 52 29 30 29 29 31 13 16 14 19 17 16 13 15 10 14 40 25 24 40 39 71 65 71 62 54 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 213 212 238 249 224 114 122 143 135 115 98 90 96 114 109 39 37 43 52 47 27 26 28 34 29 12 16 16 18 19 14 9 12 16 10 33 28 25 28 33 54 57 60 54 51 1999 2000 268 299 127 152 142 146 58 55 38 43 29 31 10 12 45 48 47 51 86 66 42 26 45 40 22 12 9 14 5 12 4 2 13 13 48 39 2000 March June Sept Dec 64 60 104 71 34 31 53 34 30 29 50 37 12 17 18 7 10 5 12 16 7 4 9 10 2 1 3 6 8 6 20 14 54 52 51 47 2001 March p Junep 52 57 31 28 20 29 7 13 8 11 7 8 1 2 5 6 61 49 – 40 – 19 – 79 + 37 + 73 – 79 – 50 – 104 – 11 – 24 + 39 + 31 + 24 + 49 + 98 .. +1 –4 + 22 –2 + 24 + 27 + 14 + 21 + 56 +4 +1 –2 +0 + 12 + 20 + 27 + 16 + 21 + 44 + 14 +3 + 15 +5 + 43 : : : : : 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 + 109 + 109 + 93 + 92 + 178 +4 – 30 – 39 – 38 –3 + 105 + 139 + 132 + 130 + 181 + 10 + 23 + 27 + 19 + 30 + 54 + 62 + 55 + 62 + 84 + 11 + 13 + 16 + 16 + 41 + 43 + 49 + 39 + 46 + 43 + 41 + 55 + 50 + 48 + 66 : : : : : 1999 2000 + 182 + 183 –8 – 47 + 190 + 230 +7 +8 + 85 + 108 + 29 + 29 + 57 + 78 + 97 + 115 : : 1999 Sept Dec + 93 + 20 –1 – + 93 + 20 + 10 –3 + 32 +9 +8 –1 + 24 + 10 + 52 + 14 : : 2000 March June Sept Dec + 35 + 38 + 84 + 26 – 16 – – 14 – 16 + 52 + 38 + 99 + 42 +7 – 10 +9 +2 + 19 + 24 + 42 + 21 +6 +6 + 12 +5 + 13 + 18 + 30 + 16 + 26 + 25 + 47 + 19 : : : : 2001 March p Junep + 49 + 58 –6 –1 + 55 + 60 +2 –2 + 25 + 32 +7 + 11 + 18 + 21 + 27 + 29 : : 1999 Sept Dec Balance 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 p Provisional. Note: All citizenship groups for 1976 onwards are as currently constituted. Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and prior to 1991 exclude migration between the UK and the Irish Republic. They also exclude persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in this table include all three categories of migrants using data from the Home Office and the Irish Central Statistics Office. For adjustment required to pre -1991 figures, see Notes to tables. 1 For 1971 citizens of the European Union are included in Other Foreign category. From 1976 onwards the European Union is as currently constituted. These statistics are subject to revision in light of the Census results. See Notes to tables on page 66. 61 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Table 8.1 Spring 2003 Internal migration Recorded movements between constituent countries of the United Kingdom and Government Office Regions of England Numbers (thousands) Government Office Regions of England Year and quarter England Wales Scotland Northern North East North Ireland West and Merseyside Yorkshire and the Humber East Midlands West Midlands East London South East Inflow 1976 1981 1986 1991 105.4 93.7 115.6 95.8 52.0 44.6 55.2 51.5 50.4 45.4 43.9 55.8 9.7 6.8 8.8 12.5 39.2 31.1 36.5 40.2 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 103.4 108.1 111.1 110.9 111.2 52.0 54.7 55.3 58.5 56.3 51.7 48.5 47.0 55.3 52.6 10.9 14.1 11.4 10.2 11.7 1999 2000 2001 111.7 108.6 104.2 58.0 59.5 60.0 50.9 48.8 56.5 2001 March June Sept Dec 21.5 23.2 34.6 24.8 11.5 12.7 22.2 13.6 2002 March 21.0 Outflow 1976 1981 1986 1991 South West 93.0 79.3 90.0 96.1 78.2 68.3 78.6 85.0 84.0 76.6 101.9 89.6 75.7 66.9 87.1 82.7 146.3 121.4 144.6 122.1 .. 155.0 182.8 148.8 215.4 201.8 243.3 197.6 123.8 108.3 148.8 120.7 37.1 37.9 38.6 38.6 39.0 99.7 103.7 105.0 106.5 104.0 87.6 90.8 90.8 92.6 93.0 96.4 101.3 102.1 107.7 107.9 84.8 90.0 90.6 92.7 93.4 130.6 134.6 139.5 145.0 142.8 160.4 170.7 168.0 167.3 173.9 215.5 218.6 228.0 229.6 226.1 127.7 131.6 138.5 144.0 138.7 11.6 11.2 12.7 38.7 39.2 40.4 105.4 106.2 106.3 95.2 96.5 96.5 111.3 112.1 115.5 93.7 94.3 95.3 148.4 145.8 147.2 162.9 163.0 159.7 228.6 224.2 223.8 143.2 140.1 143.3 12.5 13.6 17.8 12.7 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.1 7.4 8.1 15.9 8.9 21.0 23.1 37.2 25.0 17.3 19.6 38.4 21.2 21.0 24.5 43.5 26.6 18.7 20.2 33.5 23.0 30.2 34.1 47.1 35.7 35.9 36.8 49.4 37.6 44.5 49.5 76.9 52.8 27.9 32.0 48.1 35.3 12.8 9.0 3.2 7.9 21.8 18.7 23.0 19.8 31.4 35.0 45.4 29.0 104.8 91.5 100.7 112.2 43.9 41.8 49.8 47.4 54.5 47.7 57.9 46.7 14.2 9.4 15.1 9.3 40.2 39.1 45.6 40.9 102.9 98.6 115.8 104.9 78.5 73.3 90.5 85.4 77.2 71.7 84.8 81.4 89.5 78.4 94.8 87.9 115.6 104.4 128.1 113.0 .. 187.0 232.4 202.1 181.7 166.0 204.1 184.6 94.7 88.0 102.5 98.9 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 106.3 107.9 105.3 114.8 111.3 50.4 53.1 53.3 54.4 54.2 49.0 52.0 54.5 53.2 53.8 12.2 12.3 11.8 12.6 12.4 43.5 45.6 44.5 44.5 43.7 109.8 115.8 114.0 117.5 115.8 91.9 97.6 98.2 100.0 97.9 86.2 91.9 94.3 97.4 97.3 95.1 98.1 101.0 103.7 100.9 115.5 118.7 121.1 124.8 125.0 206.3 207.6 213.4 221.7 217.9 190.4 195.8 198.9 205.7 209.4 103.9 108.0 109.8 112.4 110.9 1999 2000 2001 111.6 110.8 120.4 53.3 52.1 51.5 54.9 53.3 50.4 12.5 11.9 11.1 43.8 42.9 42.6 114.9 111.3 110.4 97.0 95.7 95.6 96.4 94.9 95.6 101.8 101.5 101.6 125.8 124.6 127.1 228.3 231.5 244.2 208.7 210.5 216.4 110.7 110.7 110.7 2001 March June Sept Dec 25.0 27.7 40.5 27.3 10.4 11.6 17.8 11.7 10.7 11.7 15.9 12.1 2.2 1.9 3.7 3.2 8.7 9.9 14.5 9.5 22.0 24.8 38.6 24.9 18.8 21.5 33.4 21.8 18.6 21.9 33.1 21.9 19.9 22.2 36.4 23.1 24.8 26.9 45.8 29.6 49.5 53.4 80.0 61.3 43.0 47.7 74.7 51.0 21.9 24.1 39.2 25.6 2002 March 23.0 10.1 10.6 2.3 8.3 21.6 18.8 19.1 20.0 25.6 55.0 44.0 21.7 Balance 1976 1981 1986 1991 + 0.6 + 2.1 +14.9 –16.4 + + + + 8.1 2.7 5.4 4.0 – 4.1 – 2.3 –14.1 + 9.2 – – – + 4.5 2.5 6.3 3.2 – – – – 1.0 8.0 9.1 0.7 – 9.8 –19.3 –25.8 – 8.8 – 0.3 – 5.0 –11.9 – 0.4 + 6.8 + 4.9 +17.1 + 8.1 –13.8 –11.6 – 7.8 – 5.2 +30.7 +17.0 +16.5 + 9.1 .. – 32.0 – 49.6 – 53.3 +33.7 +35.8 +39.2 +13.0 +29.1 +20.3 +46.4 +21.8 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 – + + – – + + + + + 1.5 1.6 2.0 4.1 2.1 + – – + – – + – – – 1.2 1.8 0.4 2.4 0.8 – – – – – 6.4 7.7 5.9 5.9 4.8 –10.1 –12.1 – 9.0 –11.0 –11.8 – – – – – 4.4 6.8 7.4 7.3 4.9 +10.2 + 9.4 + 7.8 +10.3 +10.6 –10.3 – 8.1 –10.4 –11.1 – 7.4 +15.1 +15.9 +18.3 +20.3 +17.7 – – – – – 45.9 36.9 45.4 54.4 44.0 +25.1 +22.7 +29.1 +23.8 +16.7 +23.8 +23.6 +28.7 +31.6 +27.8 1999 2000 2001 + 0.1 – 2.2 –16.3 + 4.7 + 7.4 + 8.5 – 4.0 – 4.5 + 6.1 – 0.8 – 0.7 + 1.6 – 5.1 – 3.7 – 2.3 – 9.5 – 5.1 – 4.1 – 1.8 + 0.8 + 0.9 +14.9 +17.2 +19.9 – 8.1 – 7.2 – 6.3 +22.6 +21.2 +20.1 – 65.4 – 68.6 – 84.5 +19.8 +13.8 + 7.4 +32.6 +29.3 +32.6 2001 March June Sept Dec – – – – + + + + + + + + + + – – – – + – – – – + – – + – 1.5 1.9 5.0 0.7 + 2.3 + 2.6 +10.3 + 4.7 – – – – + + + + – – – – + + + + + + + + 2002 March – 2.0 – 0.1 + 3.9 – 0.1 2.9 0.2 5.8 3.8 0.1 3.5 4.5 5.9 2.5 1.1 1.1 4.3 2.0 + 2.7 2.6 3.5 7.5 2.2 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.9 0.6 – 1.7 0.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 + 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.4 0.6 – 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.5 0.1 + 0.2 1.2 2.0 3.0 0.1 Notes: Figures are derived from re-registrations recorded at the National Health Service Central Register. See Notes to tables for effects of computerisation of National Health Service Central Register at Southport on time series data. Figures have been adjusted for minor changes caused by database realignment during HA reorganisation. See Notes to tables. These statistics are subject to revision in light of the Census results. See Notes to tables on page 66. National Statistics 62 5.3 7.2 1.3 6.2 + 5.8 13.5 16.7 30.6 23.7 – 20.0 1.5 1.9 2.2 1.9 + 1.3 6.0 7.9 8.9 9.8 + 7.3 Population Trends 111 Table 9.1 Spring 2003 First marriages1 : age and sex England and Wales Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age All ages Persons marrying per 1,000 single population at ages Per cent aged under 20 Mean age 3 (years) Median age (years) Year and quarter Number Rate2 16–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–44 Males 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 308.8 339.1 343.6 274.4 259.1 74.9 78.9 82.3 62.8 51.7 16.6 22.1 26.1 18.5 11.1 159.1 168.6 167.7 123.7 94.1 182.8 185.4 167.3 132.5 120.8 91.9 91.1 84.6 78.7 70.3 39.8 36.4 33.8 32.0 31.1 9.3 8.6 8.0 7.1 5.4 6.9 9.9 10.1 9.8 7.2 25.6 24.9 24.6 25.1 25.4 24.0 23.4 23.4 23.7 24.1 1986 1991 253.0 222.8 44.6 37.0 6.0 3.4 63.5 42.2 104.3 77.5 73.7 64.6 30.9 29.5 4.8 4.8 3.8 2.1 26.3 27.5 25.1 26.5 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 206.1 198.2 193.3 188.3 186.3 33.1 31.2 29.8 28.4 27.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 30.5 27.2 24.3 22.0 20.2 69.1 64.0 60.0 56.4 54.4 56.9 54.9 53.9 52.5 52.2 30.4 30.3 30.5 29.9 28.9 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.8 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.9 1999 2000 2001p 184.3 186.1 175.7 26.6 26.2 24.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 18.2 17.4 18.8 52.0 49.5 45.6 51.9 51.8 50.1 28.5 29.3 29.1 5.6 6.0 5.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 30.1 30.5 30.6 29.2 29.6 29.7 1999 March June Sept Dec 20.8 51.0 80.0 31.4 12.2 29.5 46.3 17.9 1.3 1.6 2.3 1.5 9.7 19.6 30.9 12.2 21.3 58.8 95.5 31.8 22.8 57.8 91.0 35.2 14.2 31.3 45.4 22.6 3.4 6.2 7.7 5.0 2.1 1.0 0.9 1.6 30.2 30.2 29.9 30.6 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.6 2000 March June Sept Dec 19.9 51.3 85.5 29.4 11.3 29.0 47.8 16.5 1.3 1.5 2.3 1.4 8.7 18.6 31.0 11.2 19.0 55.4 95.4 28.1 20.7 58.0 95.4 32.9 13.9 32.4 50.0 20.8 3.7 7.0 8.5 4.8 2.1 1.0 0.9 1.6 30.7 30.5 30.2 30.8 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.9 2001 Marchp Junep Septp Decp 18.7 49.9 78.1 29.0 10.7 28.2 43.6 16.2 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.3 8.1 17.5 27.0 10.5 17.7 53.5 84.3 26.4 20.2 56.8 89.6 33.3 13.3 32.4 48.5 21.7 3.4 6.6 8.0 5.2 2.0 1.0 0.8 1.5 30.7 30.6 30.4 31.1 29.7 29.7 29.6 30.2 Females 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 312.3 342.7 347.4 276.5 263.4 83.0 89.3 97.0 76.9 64.0 77.0 82.6 92.9 66.7 41.5 261.1 263.7 246.5 185.4 140.8 162.8 153.4 167.0 140.7 120.2 74.6 74.1 75.7 77.6 67.0 29.8 30.2 30.3 31.6 28.7 4.6 4.3 4.8 4.0 2.8 28.7 32.5 31.1 31.1 24.0 23.1 22.5 22.6 22.8 23.1 21.6 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.9 1986 1991 256.8 224.8 55.7 46.6 24.1 14.0 102.4 73.0 108.8 90.6 67.1 62.7 28.6 28.1 2.7 4.6 13.9 7.9 24.1 25.5 23.1 24.6 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 206.3 198.6 192.7 188.5 187.4 41.6 39.3 37.3 35.6 34.6 9.5 8.9 8.0 7.4 7.1 56.3 50.6 45.5 42.3 39.6 84.4 80.6 77.2 74.0 72.1 58.5 56.2 56.3 55.2 55.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.0 27.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.7 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.7 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.0 1999 2000 2001p 185.3 187.7 177.5 33.5 33.1 31.3 6.6 6.4 5.5 36.5 34.9 32.6 70.1 67.8 63.0 56.0 57.6 56.1 26.8 27.5 27.8 3.6 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.2 3.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 27.3 27.5 27.7 1999 March June Sept Dec 20.6 51.4 82.0 31.4 15.1 37.2 58.7 22.5 4.9 6.7 9.1 5.5 16.7 39.9 66.5 22.5 27.5 79.5 129.3 43.3 24.5 63.0 95.0 40.7 14.3 29.5 40.4 22.6 2.4 3.6 4.8 3.4 7.4 4.1 3.5 5.5 28.0 28.0 27.8 28.4 27.2 27.3 27.1 27.8 2000 March June Sept Dec 19.9 51.5 86.9 29.5 14.1 36.6 61.0 20.7 4.5 6.6 9.2 5.4 15.5 37.6 66.2 20.0 24.9 76.0 131.1 38.6 23.9 64.3 103.1 38.7 13.3 30.3 45.8 20.6 2.5 4.6 5.4 3.7 7.0 3.9 3.3 5.7 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.6 27.3 27.6 27.4 28.0 2001 Marchp Junep Septp Decp 18.6 50.6 79.3 29.0 13.3 35.8 55.5 20.3 4.0 5.8 7.5 4.7 14.5 37.1 59.1 19.4 23.3 73.7 118.0 36.4 22.7 63.7 97.6 39.7 13.4 31.0 44.2 22.4 2.5 4.4 5.1 3.7 6.5 3.6 3.0 5.1 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.9 27.5 27.7 27.6 28.2 1 2 3 p 45 and over Figures for all marriages may be found in Table 2.1. Per 1,000 single persons aged 16 and over. The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no account of the changing age structure of the population. Provisional. See Notes to tables on page 66 and ‘in brief’ on page 3. 63 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Table 9.2 Spring 2003 Remarriages1: age, sex, and previous marital status England and Wales Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age Remarriages of divorced persons Remarriages of widowed persons Year and quarter All ages Persons remarrying per 1,000 divorced population at ages Per cent aged under 35 Mean3 age (years) Median age (years) Number Rate4 Number Rate 2 16–24 25–29 30–34 35–44 45 and over Males 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 18.8 26.7 42.4 67.2 79.1 162.9 192.2 227.3 178.8 129.5 478.6 737.8 525.2 656.8 240.7 473.6 522.5 509.0 359.7 260.9 351.6 403.1 390.7 266.8 205.8 198.3 244.4 251.3 187.9 141.9 88.6 89.4 124.8 94.0 63.9 33.9 40.8 42.8 46.7 46.1 40.5 39.3 39.8 38.4 38.1 39.2 37.4 37.0 36.0 35.9 19.1 18.7 18.7 16.9 13.8 28.8 28.3 27.5 24.7 19.7 1986 1991 83.4 74.9 90.8 62.4 138.6 79.0 157.8 106.6 141.0 97.8 105.8 72.0 49.9 38.4 38.5 34.3 39.1 40.3 37.7 39.0 11.6 9.0 16.7 12.3 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 76.6 77.0 78.0 76.8 74.0 54.2 52.0 50.6 47.9 44.6 102.2 115.8 112.8 133.8 151.9 98.3 95.8 96.7 95.1 91.9 89.3 87.4 84.7 83.0 77.2 62.8 61.4 60.7 58.3 55.7 34.8 33.2 32.9 31.1 29.2 31.5 30.3 28.2 27.0 24.8 41.1 41.3 41.7 42.0 42.4 39.6 39.8 40.2 40.5 40.8 8.4 7.8 7.7 7.4 6.9 11.5 10.7 10.6 10.2 9.6 1999 2000 2001p 72.6 75.4 67.7 42.3 42.6 38.2 142.3 138.2 118.9 91.9 89.5 68.8 76.3 77.1 67.8 53.3 55.2 50.4 27.9 28.6 25.9 23.3 20.8 19.7 42.7 43.2 43.5 41.2 41.8 42.0 6.6 6.5 5.8 9.2 8.2 8.1 1999 March June Sept Dec 10.5 20.1 26.4 15.6 24.8 47.0 61.1 36.0 132.5 142.7 181.4 112.3 61.0 99.7 132.1 74.2 43.4 83.7 117.5 59.9 29.2 59.7 79.2 44.7 17.3 31.1 38.0 25.1 23.9 22.9 24.4 21.7 43.1 42.8 42.3 43.3 41.6 41.3 40.7 41.9 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 6.4 11.1 11.1 8.1 2000 March June Sept Dec 10.5 21.2 29.0 14.8 23.8 47.9 65.2 33.3 121.7 135.2 167.1 128.7 58.6 99.2 137.3 62.4 39.7 85.4 127.0 56.1 29.3 61.5 88.2 41.5 16.9 32.7 40.6 24.1 20.6 20.4 21.8 19.3 43.7 43.3 42.7 43.9 42.2 42.0 41.2 42.6 1.1 1.9 2.1 1.3 5.7 9.5 10.8 6.8 2001 Marchp Junep Septp Decp 9.2 19.2 25.3 13.9 21.2 43.6 56.6 31.2 90.3 134.8 141.7 108.4 44.9 74.0 102.0 53.9 35.2 76.6 108.3 50.5 26.0 57.2 77.9 39.9 15.4 30.0 35.5 22.6 19.7 19.4 20.9 18.3 44.0 43.5 42.9 44.1 42.7 42.2 41.4 42.8 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.3 5.2 9.5 10.7 7.0 Females 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 18.0 25.1 39.6 65.1 75.1 97.1 114.7 134.0 122.2 90.7 542.2 567.8 464.4 458.9 257.5 409.6 411.2 359.0 272.3 202.1 250.2 254.8 232.7 188.0 142.9 111.5 135.9 139.8 124.0 95.5 35.6 37.8 49.3 40.9 29.0 46.8 52.4 57.0 59.8 57.9 37.2 36.2 35.7 34.9 35.1 35.9 34.3 33.0 32.4 33.4 16.5 16.8 17.7 17.0 13.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 5.9 4.6 1986 1991 80.0 73.4 68.7 50.3 190.6 111.9 156.2 118.1 111.7 89.7 75.5 55.3 24.4 20.9 51.2 47.4 36.0 37.1 34.7 35.7 11.2 8.6 3.8 2.9 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 76.9 76.9 78.9 77.1 73.3 45.7 43.8 43.4 41.0 37.8 131.1 131.1 146.9 155.5 151.4 107.3 103.0 102.9 101.0 97.1 86.4 85.3 85.2 81.2 76.6 52.3 52.2 52.8 51.1 48.5 20.4 19.5 20.0 19.1 17.9 44.4 42.8 40.8 39.0 37.1 37.9 38.1 38.6 38.9 39.3 36.3 36.6 37.1 37.4 37.9 7.9 7.5 7.3 7.0 6.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.3 1999 2000 2001p 72.0 74.1 66.1 36.0 35.9 32.0 146.0 143.4 115.0 91.5 93.0 74.2 73.7 74.1 65.7 48.2 49.5 45.1 17.2 17.7 16.0 34.7 32.0 30.7 39.7 40.1 40.4 38.3 38.9 39.2 6.2 6.2 5.6 2.2 2.3 2.0 1999 March June Sept Dec 10.9 19.9 25.5 15.6 22.1 39.9 50.6 31.0 125.0 149.4 184.8 124.4 63.6 97.9 125.2 78.8 44.6 82.5 107.2 60.0 28.2 53.1 69.7 41.3 10.6 19.5 22.9 15.7 36.5 34.3 34.9 33.4 39.5 39.8 39.5 40.0 38.1 38.4 38.2 38.7 1.0 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.5 2.6 2.8 2.0 2000 March June Sept Dec 10.7 20.9 27.7 14.8 20.8 40.8 53.5 28.5 122.7 147.8 173.9 129.0 58.5 104.5 134.3 74.6 42.3 84.2 113.0 56.7 27.4 55.5 76.5 38.3 10.4 20.7 25.0 14.7 33.3 31.7 31.9 31.6 40.1 40.3 39.9 40.3 38.7 39.1 38.7 39.0 1.0 1.8 2.1 1.3 1.5 2.7 3.1 1.9 2001 Marchp Junep Septp Decp 9.4 18.6 24.1 13.9 18.5 36.2 46.4 26.8 81.3 120.9 141.0 116.2 49.5 82.9 103.1 60.9 37.7 72.9 97.4 54.2 24.8 50.5 67.8 36.9 9.4 18.7 22.0 13.9 32.2 30.2 30.6 30.6 40.3 40.6 40.2 40.7 39.0 39.3 39.0 39.4 0.8 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.2 2.4 2.7 1.8 1 2 3 4 p Figures for all marriages may be found in Table 2.1. Per 1,000 divorced persons aged 16 and over. The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no account of the changing age structure of the population. Per 1,000 widowed persons aged 16 and over. Provisional. See Notes to tables on page 66 and ‘in brief’ on page 3. National Statistics 64 Population Trends 111 Divorces: age and sex Table 9.3 England and Wales England and Wales Year and quarter Spring 2003 Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age Petitions filed Decrees made absolute All divorces 1st marriage Divorce decrees per 1,000 married population 2nd or later marriage 16 and over 16–24 25–29 30–34 35–44 Per cent aged 45 and over Mean age at divorce1 under 35 Median age at divorce Numbers Males 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 13.7 18.3 44.2 43.3 46.7 25.4 39.1 74.4 126.7 145.7 23.5 36.4 69.3 115.7 127.6 1.9 2.7 5.2 11.0 18.1 2.1 3.2 5.9 10.1 11.9 1.4 2.6 5.0 13.6 17.7 3.9 6.8 12.5 21.4 27.6 4.1 6.8 11.8 18.9 22.8 3.1 4.5 7.9 14.1 17.0 1.1 1.5 3.1 4.5 4.8 38.3 44.2 44.8 48.6 48.6 .. 38.6 39.4 38.0 37.7 .. 36.4 36.6 35.4 35.4 1986 1991 49.7 .. 153.9 158.7 128.0 129.8 25.9 29.0 12.9 13.5 30.9 25.4 31.2 31.0 25.1 27.8 18.0 20.0 5.2 5.6 45.6 42.7 37.8 38.6 36.2 37.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .. .. .. .. .. 155.5 157.1 146.7 145.2 144.6 125.1 125.8 117.3 116.0 115.1 30.4 31.3 29.4 29.2 29.4 13.6 13.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 30.9 32.2 30.4 30.4 29.0 31.6 33.2 31.4 32.2 31.5 29.0 29.6 28.3 28.3 28.4 21.4 21.9 20.9 21.3 21.7 6.2 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.3 38.7 37.5 35.9 34.3 32.1 39.6 39.8 40.2 40.4 40.9 37.9 38.1 38.4 38.7 39.2 2000 2001P .. .. 141.1 143.8 112.1 114.3 29.1 29.5 12.7 13.0 27.7 25.0 30.0 27.5 27.8 27.7 21.7 22.7 6.3 6.5 29.9 28.4 41.3 41.5 39.7 40.0 2000 March June Sept Dec . 2001 March p Junep Sept p Decp .. .. .. .. 36.5 35.8 34.4 34.4 29.0 28.4 27.3 27.3 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.1 13.3 13.0 12.3 12.3 29.5 28.4 26.2 26.9 32.3 31.1 28.5 28.2 29.0 28.8 27.1 26.4 22.5 21.9 21.0 21.2 6.6 6.4 6.1 6.1 30.1 30.4 29.8 29.3 41.2 41.2 41.3 41.3 39.6 39.5 39.7 39.8 .. .. .. .. 36.1 36.0 35.4 36.3 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.9 7.3 7.6 7.3 7.4 13.2 13.0 12.7 13.0 25.6 25.8 23.9 24.7 29.3 27.3 25.9 27.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.4 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.9 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.5 28.8 28.3 28.3 28.1 41.4 41.6 41.5 41.6 39.9 40.1 39.9 40.0 2002 March p Junep Sept p .. .. .. 35.8 37.3 37.9 28.3 29.6 29.9 7.5 7.7 8.0 13.1 13.5 13.6 26.5 25.6 26.7 25.2 25.9 25.7 26.9 27.6 27.5 23.2 24.0 23.9 6.8 7.0 7.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 41.8 41.8 41.9 40.3 40.4 40.5 Females 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 18.2 28.3 66.7 101.5 123.5 25.4 39.1 74.4 126.7 145.7 23.4 36.2 69.3 115.9 127.7 2.0 2.8 5.1 10.8 18.0 2.1 3.2 5.9 10.1 11.9 2.4 4.1 7.5 14.5 22.3 4.5 7.6 13.0 20.4 26.7 3.8 6.1 10.5 18.3 20.2 2.7 3.9 6.7 12.6 14.9 0.9 1.2 2.8 4.0 3.9 49.3 54.7 54.4 56.6 58.0 .. 35.8 36.8 36.0 35.2 .. 33.6 33.6 33.1 33.2 1986 1991 130.7 .. 153.9 158.7 128.8 130.9 25.1 27.8 12.9 13.4 30.7 28.7 28.6 30.7 22.0 25.0 15.8 17.3 4.1 4.5 55.0 52.7 35.3 36.0 33.6 34.3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .. .. .. .. .. 155.5 157.1 146.7 145.2 144.6 126.0 126.9 118.3 116.8 115.4 29.5 30.2 28.4 28.5 29.1 13.5 13.8 13.0 12.9 12.9 33.2 34.4 31.9 32.9 30.3 32.3 33.9 32.3 32.8 32.3 26.7 27.6 26.4 26.8 27.3 18.8 19.2 18.5 18.8 19.4 4.9 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.1 48.8 47.7 45.9 44.3 41.7 37.0 37.3 37.7 37.9 38.4 35.3 35.6 36.0 36.3 36.9 2000 2001P .. .. 141.1 143.8 112.6 114.6 28.5 29.2 12.7 12.9 29.6 28.4 31.1 28.8 27.1 27.2 19.3 20.4 5.2 5.4 39.6 37.8 38.8 39.1 37.3 37.7 2000 March June Sept Dec .. .. .. .. 36.5 35.8 34.4 34.4 29.2 28.4 27.5 27.6 7.3 7.4 7.0 6.9 13.3 12.9 12.3 12.3 32.9 29.1 28.0 28.6 33.2 32.4 29.6 29.2 28.1 28.0 26.1 26.3 20.0 19.5 18.8 18.9 5.5 5.2 5.1 5.0 39.9 40.1 39.2 39.3 38.7 38.7 38.9 38.9 37.3 37.2 37.5 37.4 2001 March p Junep Sept p Decp .. .. .. .. 36.1 36.0 35.4 36.3 28.8 28.5 28.3 29.0 7.3 7.5 7.1 7.3 13.1 13.0 12.6 12.9 30.1 28.2 27.2 28.3 30.5 29.1 27.6 28.3 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.0 20.5 20.4 20.1 20.7 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.4 38.3 37.7 37.9 37.3 39.0 39.2 39.1 39.1 37.6 37.8 37.7 37.8 2002 March P JuneP Sept P .. .. .. 35.8 37.3 37.9 28.5 29.7 30.1 7.3 7.7 7.8 13.0 13.4 13.5 28.9 30.2 29.7 26.9 27.4 27.7 26.6 27.1 26.9 21.1 21.9 22.0 5.6 5.8 5.9 36.2 35.9 35.6 39.4 39.4 39.5 38.0 38.2 38.2 1 The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no account of the changing age structure of the population. p Provisional. See Notes to tables on page 66 and ‘in brief’ on page 3. Divorce petitions entered by year and quarter 1995–2002 England and Wales Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 Numbers (thousands) March Qtr 46.8 45.5 35.6 43.0 June Qtr 41.9 44.5 43.7 40.3 Sept Qtr 45.7 45.3 44.0 42.1 Dec Qtr Year March Qtr June Qtr Sept Qtr Dec Qtr 40.5 43.4 40.9 41.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 41.4 39.3 39.7 41.0 39.5 37.6 40.6 42.3 41.3 39.5 40.7 42.6 40.5 41.8 41.2 44.7 Note: The Divorce Reform Act 1969 became operative on 1 January 1971 – the Matrimonial and Family Proceedings Act came into effect on 12 October 1984. Figures include petitions for nullity Source: The Court Service. 65 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 Notes to tables Time Series For most tables, years start at 1971 and then continue at five-year intervals until 1991. Individual years are shown thereafter. If a year is not present the data are not available. United Kingdom The United Kingdom comprise’s England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Channel Islands and the Isle of Man are not part of the United Kingdom. Population The estimated and projected populations of an area include all those usually resident in the area, whatever their nationality. Members of HM forces stationed outside the United Kingdom are excluded. Students are taken to be resident at their term-time addresses. The population estimates for mid-2001 are final figures based on the 2001 Census of Population. For details of rebased estimates following the results of the 2001 Census, see Population Trends 110, page 2. Live births For England and Wales, figures relate to numbers occurring in a period; for Scotland and Northern Ireland, figures relate to those registered in a period. Perinatal mortality In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth was changed, from baby born dead after 28 completed weeks of gestation or more, to one born dead after 24 completed weeks of gestation or more. Expectation of life The life tables on which these expectations are based use current death rates to describe mortality levels for each year. Each individual year shown is based on a three-year period, so that for instance 1986 represents 1985–87. More details can be found in Population Trends 60, page 23. Deaths Figures for England and Wales represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year up to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993, though provisional figures are registrations. Figures for both Scotland and Northern Ireland represent the number of deaths registered in each year. Age-standardised mortality Directly age-standardised rates make allowances for changes in the age structure of the population. The age-standardised rate for a particular condition is that which would have occurred if the observed agespecific rates for the condition had applied in a given standard population. Table 2.2 uses the European Standard Population. This is a hypothetical population standard which is the same for both males and females allowing standardised rates to be compared for each sex, and between males and females. Migration Figures in Tables 7.1–7.3 are derived from three data sources: 1. The International Passenger Survey (IPS) is a sample survey of all passengers travelling through major air and seaports of the United Kingdom. The IPS data exclude migration between the UK and the National Statistics 66 Irish Republic. They also exclude persons seeking asylum and short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. Migration between the Channel Islands or the Isle of Man and the rest of the world was previously included in the total migration to the United Kingdom. From 1988 this has been excluded. 2. The Home Office provides data on people who entered the UK as asylum seekers, or as short-term visitors who were subsequently granted an extension of stay for a year or more, for example as asylum seekers, students or on the basis of marriage. 3. Information on migration between the UK and the Irish Republic from the Irish Labour Force Survey and the National Health Service Central Register, agreed between the Irish Central Statistics Office and the ONS. For years prior to 1991, the figures in Tables 7.1–7.3 are based only on data from the IPS. After taking account of persons leaving the UK for a short-term period who stayed overseas for longer than originally intended, the adjustment needed to net migration ranges from about 10 thousand in 1981 to just over 20 thousand in 1986. From 1991, the figures in Tables 7.1–7.3 are based on data from all three sources and represent Total International Migration. Revisions to the historic series of population estimates show that International Migration data sources have overestimated the net inflow of international migrants to the UK over the past decade. ONS is currently revising the existing international migration series for 1992 onwards. Publication of these revised series is planned for late Spring 2003. A migrant into the United Kingdom is defined in these tables as a passenger entering the United Kingdom with the declared intention of residing here for at least a year having lived abroad for at least a year; and vice versa for a migrant from the United Kingdom. Old Commonwealth is defined as Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa; New Commonwealth is defined as all other Commonwealth countries. Middle East is defined as Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Figures in Table 8.1 are based on the movement of NHS doctors’ patients between Health Authorities (HAs) in England and Wales, and Area Health Boards in Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Yearly and quarterly figures have been adjusted to take account of differences in recorded cross-border flows between England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Prior to re organisation of health authority databases from Family Health Service Authorities (FHSAs) to HAs some database boundaries were realigned. This included in a few cases transferring patients between databases to fit the new boundaries. For the most part, this movement was done outside the NHSCR system and therefore had no effect on migration data. However a small number were transferred within the system. As migration estimates derived from NHSCR are the product of an administrative system (when patients re register with GPs) this had the effect of generating small numbers of spurious migrants where no actual change of address had taken place. We have been advised of adjustments required to data by the Department of Health and these have been made to migration data. The NHS Central Register (NHSCR) at Southport was computerised in early 1991, prior to which a three month time lag was assumed between a person moving and their re-registration with an NHS doctor being processed onto the NHSCR. Since computerisation, estimates of internal migration are based on the date of acceptance of the new patient by the H A (not previously available), and a one month time lag assumed. Marriages and divorces Marriages are tabulated according to date of solemnisation. Divorces are tabulated according to date of decree absolute, and the term ‘divorces’ includes decrees of nullity. The fact that a marriage or divorce has taken place in England and Wales does not mean either of the parties is resident there. Sources Figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland have been provided by the General Register Office for Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency respectively, except for the projections in Table 1.2 which are provided by the Government Actuary. The International Passenger Survey (Tables 7.1–7.3) is conducted by the Social Survey Division of ONS. Rounding All figures are rounded independently; constituent parts may not add to totals. Generally numbers and rates per 1,000 population are rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 123.4); where appropriate, for small figures (below 10.0), two decimal places are given (e.g. 7.62). Figures which are provisional or estimated are given in less detail (e.g. 123 or 7.6 respectively) if their reliability does not justify giving the standard amount of detail. Where figures need to be treated with particular caution, an explanation is given as a footnote. Latest figures Figures for the latest quarters and years may be provisional and will be updated in future issues when later information becomes available. Where figures are not yet available, cells are left blank. Shaded background Where available, the final revised population estimates based on the 2001 Census of Population have been incorporated into this edition of Population Trends. Where they are not yet available, the original estimates continue to be included or used as denominators. The shaded background indicates figures that are subject to revision when the relevant rebased estimates are available. As all the sub-national projections will be rebased in due course, all projected figures in Table 1.3 are shaded. These shaded figures are based on the original mid-1996 population estimates and are therefore not comparable with the rebased estimates shown in the same table. For further details of the rebased estimates following the results of the 2001 Census, see ‘in brief’ on page 3. Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 Report: Marriages in England and Wales, 2001 This report provides provisional summary statistics of marriages solemnised in England and Wales during 2001, and compares them with the figures for previous years. Full details of marriages in 2001 will be published later this year in the annual volume Marriage, divorce and adoption statistics 2001 (Series FM2 No 29). KEY OBSERVATIONS: ● ● ● ● ● ● There were 249,227 marriages in 2001, seven per cent fewer than in 2000 and 19 per cent fewer than in 1991 (Table 1). Figure 1 The number of marriages taking place in approved premises continued to increase, with nearly one in three of civil marriages (one in five of all marriages) solemnised in this manner in 2001 (Table 1). The marriage rate for men continued its downward trend, with 26 men marrying per 1,000 unmarried men in 2001, compared with 28 in 2000. The rate for women also fell, from 26 women marrying per 1,000 unmarried women in 2000 to 24 in 2001 (Table 2). Marriages where both parties were marrying for the first time accounted for almost 60 per cent of all marriages in 2001 compared with just over 58 per cent in 2000. Altogether 82 per cent of marriages in 2001 involved a person marrying for the first time, compared with 83 per cent in 1991 (Tables 3 and 4). Just over half of couples where the marriage was the first for both parties chose a civil ceremony; among couples where both parties had previously been married civil marriages accounted for 86 per cent (Table 4). Marriages by type of ceremony as a percentage of all marriages, 1991–2001 England and Wales 70 The number of religious ceremonies fell by eight per cent between 2000 and 2001, while civil marriages fell by six per cent (Table 1). Civil ceremonies now account for nearly two-thirds of all marriages, compared with just under half in 1991 (Figure 1). 60 Percentage of all marriages ● Note: The marriage figures presented in this report do not include those marriages of England and Wales residents which took place outside of England and Wales. All civil marriages 50 40 Other civil marriages 30 All religious marriages 20 Approved premises 10 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001* Year The average (mean) age at marriage has continued to increase for both men and women. For single men, it increased from 30.5 years in 2000 to 30.6 years in 2001 while for single women the corresponding rise was from 28.2 to 28.4 years. The mean age for divorced men marrying in 2001 was 43.5 years and for divorced women was 40.4 years, compared with 43.2 and 40.1 respectively in 2000 (Table 5). 67 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Table 1 Spring 2003 Summary of marriages, 1981, 1991, 1997–2001 England and Wales Numbers Total marriages Quarterly totals March June September December Previous marital status First marriage for both First marriage for one Remarriage for both Manner of solemnisation Civil ceremonies of which: in approved premises Religious ceremonies of which: Church of England and Church in Wales Roman Catholic Nonconformist* Other Christian bodies Other 1981 1991 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 351,973 306,756 272,536 267,303 263,515 267,961 249,227 63,708 98,403 119,758 70,104 41,488 89,538 121,508 54,222 34,948 76,709 113,229 47,650 33,406 75,015 110,213 48,669 32,461 73,152 109,489 48,413 31,492 74,194 116,695 45,580 28,836 70,876 105,331 44,184 227,713 67,048 57,212 192,238 63,159 51,359 156,907 62,911 52,718 156,539 60,642 50,122 155,027 59,540 48,948 156,140 61,550 50,271 148,642 55,943 44,642 172,514 151,333 165,516 163,072 162,679 170,800 160,238 179,459 155,423 22,052 107,020 28,879 104,231 37,709 100,836 45,792 97,161 50,149 88,989 118,435 26,097 29,017 4,422 1,488 102,840 19,551 25,472 5,597 1,963 70,310 13,125 16,438 4,773 2,374 69,494 12,615 15,161 4,585 2,376 67,219 12,399 14,136 4,554 2,528 65,536 11,312 13,435 4,316 2,562 60,878 10,518 11,163 4,047 2,383 * In this table Nonconformist denominations are taken as the following: Methodist; Calvanistic Methodist; United Reformed Church; Congregationalist; and Baptist Table 2 Marriage rates,*1991–2001 England and Wales Rate per thousand Year All marriages Persons marrying per 1,000 population of all ages 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Men marrying per 1,000 unmarried men aged 16 and over 12.0 12.2 11.8 11.4 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.4 9.6 38.6 38.5 36.4 34.8 33.1 31.9 30.4 29.2 28.1 27.9 26.0 Women marrying per 1,000 unmarried women aged 16 and over 33.1 33.3 31.6 30.4 29.1 28.3 27.2 26.3 25.6 25.6 23.8 First marriages Remarriages Number marrying per 1,000 single population aged 16 and over Number marrying per 1,000 widowed or divorced population Bachelors 37.0 36.8 34.7 33.1 31.2 29.8 28.4 27.5 26.6 26.2 24.7 Spinsters 46.6 46.3 43.8 41.6 39.3 37.3 35.6 34.6 33.5 33.1 31.3 Men 43.5 43.7 41.3 39.7 38.4 37.7 36.2 34.0 32.5 32.9 29.5 Women 18.5 19.1 18.5 18.4 18.1 18.4 17.8 16.8 16.4 16.7 14.9 * The population estimates used as the denominators for the crude marriage rates have been revised to take account of the results of the 2001 Census. All other rates presented in this table were calculated using the original mid-year population estimates by marital status, which take no account of the 2001 Census and are therefore subject to revision. The 2001 rates are based on the 2000 marital status estimates. Revised marriage rates for 1991 to 2001 will be included in the annual reference volume Marriage, divorce and adoption statistics 2001 (Series FM2) which will be published in the summer. National Statistics 68 Population Trends 111 Table 3 Spring 2003 Previous marital status of person marrying, 1981, 1991, 2000 and 2001 England and Wales Year of marriage Numbers/percentages Men Women Total Number 1981 Total Bachelors Divorced men Widowers 1991 Total Bachelors Divorced men Widowers 2000 Total Bachelors Divorced men Widowers 2001 Total Bachelors Divorced men Widowers Table 4 Spinsters Per cent Number Divorced women Per cent Number Per cent Widows Number 351,973 100.0 263,368 74.8 75,147 21.4 13,458 3.8 259,106 79,099 13,768 73.6 22.5 3.9 227,713 33,209 2,446 64.7 9.4 0.7 29,078 41,352 4,717 8.3 11.7 1.3 2,315 4,538 6,605 0.7 1.3 1.9 306,756 100.0 224,812 73.3 73,408 23.9 8,536 2.8 222,823 74,860 9,073 72.6 24.4 3.0 192,238 31,085 1,489 62.7 10.1 0.5 29,061 40,551 3,796 9.5 13.2 1.2 1,524 3,224 3,788 0.5 1.1 1.2 267,961 100.0 187,717 70.1 74,092 27.7 6,152 2.3 186,113 75,378 6,470 69.5 28.1 2.4 156,140 30,500 1,077 58.3 11.4 0.4 28,762 42,101 3,229 10.7 15.7 1.2 1,211 2,777 2,164 0.5 1.0 0.8 249,227 100.0 177,506 71.2 66,120 26.5 5,601 2.2 175,721 67,678 5,828 70.5 27.2 2.3 148,642 27,874 990 59.6 11.2 0.4 25,954 37,268 2,898 10.4 15.0 1.2 1,125 2,536 1,940 0.5 1.0 0.8 Marriages by previous marital status and manner of solemnisation, 1991, 2000 and 2001 England and Wales Numbers/percentages Year of marriage 1991 Total marriages Total marriages First marriage for both First marriage for one Remarriage for both 2000 Total marriages First marriage for both First marriage for one Remarriage for both 2001 Per cent Total marriages First marriage for both First marriage for one Remarriage for both Civil marriages Religious marriages Number Per cent Number Per cent Number Per cent 306,756 100.0 151,333 49.3 155,423 50.7 192,238 63,159 51,359 62.7 20.6 16.7 64,614 44,643 42,076 21.1 14.6 13.7 127,624 18,516 9,283 41.6 6.0 3.0 267,961 100.0 170,800 63.7 97,161 36.3 156,140 61,550 50,271 58.3 23.0 18.8 79,157 48,361 43,282 29.5 18.0 16.2 76,983 13,189 6,989 28.7 4.9 2.6 249,227 100.0 160,238 64.3 88989 35.7 148,642 55,943 44,642 59.6 22.4 17.9 77,048 44,601 38,589 30.9 17.9 15.5 71594 11342 6053 28.7 4.6 2.4 69 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Table 5 Spring 2003 Age at marriage by sex and previous marital status, 2001 England and Wales Numbers Age Men Total Women Bachelors Divorced Widowers Total Spinsters Divorced Widows Total 249,227 175,721 67,678 5,828 249,227 177,506 66,120 5,601 16–19 1,945 1,931 14 0 6,896 6,841 55 0 20 21 22 23 24 20–24 2,215 3,371 4,923 5,973 8,169 24,651 2,199 3,346 4,873 5,915 8,046 24,379 15 25 49 58 122 269 1 1 3 1 3 5,571 7,545 9,088 10,718 12,395 45,317 5,494 7,446 8,930 10,480 12,046 44,396 76 95 156 235 341 903 1 4 2 3 8 18 25 26 27 28 29 25–29 10,426 12,838 14,100 15,012 15,558 67,934 10,237 12,500 13,641 14,313 14,511 65,202 187 334 456 694 1,029 2,700 2 4 3 5 18 32 13,871 15,119 15,397 14,744 14,668 73,799 13,367 14,397 14,274 13,352 12,723 68,113 498 706 1,105 1,365 1,917 5,591 6 16 18 27 28 95 30 31 32 33 34 30–34 15,249 13,446 12,249 10,709 9,756 61,409 13,750 11,644 10,121 8,300 7,101 50,916 1,485 1,785 2,105 2,391 2,616 10,382 14 17 23 18 39 111 13,499 11,319 10,092 8,862 8,093 51,865 11,127 8,846 7,176 5,845 4,842 37,836 2,332 2,427 2,868 2,951 3,181 13,759 40 46 48 66 70 270 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 36,397 20,475 12,782 10,167 5,860 21,362 7,161 2,527 1,218 497 14,795 13,010 9,835 8,224 4,554 240 304 420 725 819 29,144 16,528 10,523 7,548 3,552 13,451 4,226 1,438 657 287 15,260 11,790 8,419 6,108 2,593 433 512 666 783 672 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 3,420 1,988 1,139 680 262 127 86 38 2,300 1,042 394 134 858 819 659 508 1,991 1,027 551 330 123 74 31 26 1,090 372 124 41 778 581 396 263 80–84 85–89 90 and over 263 98 19 13 86 - 25 2 - 225 10 19 117 31 8 4 2 1 11 3 1 102 26 6 Mean ag e 34.8 30.6 43.5 61.0 32.2 28.4 40.4 55.2 Median age 32.1 29.7 42.0 61.6 29.9 27.7 39.2 55.1 National Statistics 70 Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 Recent Publications Annual Abstract of Statistics, 2003 (TSO, £39.50, January, ISBN 0 11 621572 0) Living in Britain, results from the 2001 General Household Survey (TSO, £39.50, February, ISBN 0 11 621574 7) Birth Statistics, England and Wales, 2001, Series FM1 no.30 (December, available on the National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/products/p5768.asp) Mortality statistics: cause, England and Wales, 2001, Series DH2 no.28 (December, available on the National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=618) Cancer statistics: registrations, England, 1999, Series MB1 no.30 (December, available on the National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/ statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=8843) Mortality statistics: childhood, infant and perinatal, 2001, Series DH3 no.34 (March, available on the National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=6305) Census 2001: Key statistics for local authorities in England and Wales (TSO, £75, February, ISBN 0 11 621643 3) Social Trends 2003, no.33 (TSO, £39.50, January, ISBN 0 11 621571 2) Census 2001: Key statistics for local authorities in Wales (English and Welsh language, TSO, £45, February, ISBN 0 11 621644 1) Contraception and Sexual Health, 2001 (March, available on the National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/ Product.asp?vink=6988) Family Spending 2001-2002 (TSO, £39.50, March, ISBN 0 11 621573 9) Health Statistics Quarterly 17 (TSO, £20, March, ISBN 0 11 621629 8) UK Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities 2003 (TSO, £39.50, December, ISBN 0 11 621641 7) Indexes to the UK Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities 2003 (TSO, £39.50, December, ISBN 0 11 621642 5) All of the above publications from TSO can be ordered on 0870 600 5522 or online at www.tso.co.uk/bookshop. They can also be downloaded free of charge from the National Statistics website. 71 National Statistics Population Trends 111 Spring 2003 This is a blank page. National Statistics 72 Other population and health articles, publications and data Health Statistics Quarterly 18 Population Trends 112 Publication 29 May 2003 Planned articles: ● ● ● ● Report: ● Publication 26 June 2003 Comparison of area-based inequality measures and disease morbidity in England, 1994–1998 Twentieth century mortality trends in England and Wales Implications for vital statistics of the change from SOC90 to SOC2000 in occupation coding Geographical comparisons of cancer survival indicators Planned articles: ● ● ● Reports: ● ● Population review of 2001: England and Wales Birth expectations Care for parents and care for children Live births in England and Wales 2002: local and health authority areas Death registrations in England and Wales 2002: area of residence Death registrations in England and Wales, 2002: cause Vital Statistics data – annual data for each Health and Local Authority in England and Wales Forthcoming Annual Reference Volumes Title Key population and vital statistics 2001,VS no. 28/PP1 no. 24 International migration 2001, MN no. 28* Mortality statistics 2001, injury and poisoning, DH4 no.26* Planned publication April 2003 June 2003 June 2003 * Available through the National Statistics website only www.statistics.gov.uk VS1 Births and mortality summary data Population, births and deaths, fertility and mortality rates, comparisons with the region, and with England and Wales. VS2 Births data Births by age of mother, number of previous children, place of confinement and birthweight. VS3 Mortality data by cause Deaths by cause, sex and age. VS3sc Mortality data by cause Deaths by cause, sex and age. VS4 Births and mortality by ward Live births, stillbirths and deaths (by age). VS4D Mortality by selected causes by ward Deaths for wards in local authorities by 14 selected causes. VS5 Infant and perinatal mortality data Live births, stillbirths and infant deaths. Numbers and rates. Live births and stillbirths by birthweight. Stillbirths by gestation period. How to order: Most Vital Statistics data are available on paper and CD-ROM for each year 1993–2001. Prices range from £15. To order contact: Vital Statistics Outputs Branch Room 1300 Office for National Statistics Segensworth Road Titchfield Hampshire PO15 5RR Tel: 01329 813758