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ISBN 0 11 621633 6
ISSN 0307-4463
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Spring 2003
NO 111
Population Trends
In this issue
Page
In Brief
2
Demographic indicators
6
Interim 2001-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and
constituent countries
An analysis of the latest national population projections figures based upon the first results of the
2001 Census
Chris Shaw
Higher qualifications, first-birth timing and further childbearing in England and Wales
An examination of the relationship between the attainment of higher educational qualifications and
later entry to motherhood and how these are associated with the pace of subsequent childbearing
Michael S Rendall and Steve Smallwood
How important are inter-generational cycles of teenage motherhood in England and
Wales? A comparison with France
An analysis of the hypotheses that the UK’s higher teenage fertility rate compared to the rest of
Western Europe is primarily caused by the repetition of teenage motherhood from mother to
daughter
Michael S Rendall
Tables
List of tables
Tables 1.1 – 9.3
Notes to tables
7
18
27
38
39
66
Report:
Marriages in England and Wales, 2001
67
Recent Publications
71
London: TSO
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
in brief
2001 Census Results
Census results across the United
Kingdom are now available at local
government level for the various topics
covered.
England and Wales
The first detailed Census results for England
and Wales – Key statistics for local authorities
in England and Wales – were released on 13
February. These results provided the headline
figures for each topic covered in the Census –
including ethnicity and religion; occupation
and industry of employment; household
composition; and health and provision of
unpaid care.
Results are provided for a range of
administrative geographies, from Local
Authority District upwards. The results are
available in printed reports, Census 2001: Key
statistics for local authorities in England and
Wales and Census 2001: Key statistics for local
authorities in Wales (which is available in
English and Welsh language) from TSO
bookshops. The results can also be obtained
from the Neighbourhood Statistics Service on
the National Statistics website http://
www.statistics.gov.uk or on a CD from Census
Customer Services (email:
census.customerservices@ons.gov.uk or
telephone: 01329 813800). Supporting
information to the results, including
information on the Census methodology and
response rates; commentaries on the results;
and profiles of each Local Authority, is
available on the National Statistics website.
More detailed results, and results for other
geographies in England and Wales, will be
published over the coming months.
National Statistics
2
Reports
There will be further reports to Parliament
providing results for England and Wales for
the new health geographies, Parliamentary
Constituencies, and urban areas, with
additional bi-lingual reports for Wales. These
will present results in a succinct printed form,
with more detailed results included, where
appropriate, on CD. Electronic versions will
also be placed on the National Statistics
website, accessible to all without charge.
Census Access Project
The remaining results, which will be the bulk
of output, will be in the form of local statistics
issued under the arrangements of the Census
Access project as an integrated set of statistics,
geography and metadata free at the point of
use. Census local statistics are scheduled to
become accessible to all users through
Neighbourhood Statistics on the National
Statistics website in 2003.
Multi-Source Topic Reports
Following the publication of the Census
standard area statistics, the Office for National
Statistics (ONS) will be producing a series of
multi-source topic reports (MSTRs) for key
areas of analysis. These will pull together
information from the 2001 Census and other
sources to provide a more comprehensive
statistical picture of a topic area than would be
provided by solely Census-based products. The
choice of sources used will be informed by the
ONS Joined up Data Project that will be
recommending the most appropriate source of
information for a given purpose.
An overview summary for each topic, that will
include key headline data and commentary,
will be published on the National Statistics
website in Summer 2003. Longer reports will
be published later for each topic, in the style of
the ‘Social Focus’ series. These will provide
more detailed analysis and commentary.
The People, Places and Migration MSTR will
include detailed analyses of the age structure
of the population, where people live, major
cities and towns, special population types, the
characteristics of migrants and the
characteristics of the foreign born and
immigrant populations.
Other MSTRs being planned include topics
such as inequalities, ethnicity and identity,
families, and older people. More information
on the topics covered in the MSTR series can
be found on the National Statistics website at:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/census2001/
op9.asp
Scotland
The first detailed results from the 2001 Census
in Scotland were released on 13 February by
the Registrar General for Scotland. Results
were contained in two booklets, The Registrar
General’s 2001 Census Report to the Scottish
Parliament and Key Statistics for Council
areas and Health Board areas Scotland. These
reports cover the majority of Census questions
and topics (including housing, health,
education qualifications, transport, industry
and occupation, religion, ethnic group and
Gaelic). The Registrar General’s report
provides comparisons, where appropriate, with
1991 results with the key points drawn out in a
commentary. The Key Statistics Report
provides similar, but more detailed, statistics in
a format which invites comparisons between
council areas and health board areas. The
reports are available from the Census pages of
the GROS website
http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk or by
contacting GROS Customer Services (email:
customer@gro-scotland.gov.uk or telephone:
0131 314 4254).
Population Trends 111
More detailed results for areas smaller than
Council area were available in March 2003.
SCROL (Scotland’s Census Results OnLine)
will provide free online access to the results
and this service will be available from March.
In addition, the results will also be delivered in
a number of printed publications and CD
ROMs, details of which are outlined in the
GROS publication Scotland’s Census – A guide
to the results and how to obtain them are
available on the Census pages of the GROS
website.
Northern Ireland
The first results from the 2001 Census in
Northern Ireland were released on 30
September 2002 in the Northern Ireland Census
2001 Population Report and Mid-Year
Estimates. This was followed on 19 December
with the Northern Ireland Census 2001 Key
Statistics providing summary statistics for each
census topic. The Key Statistics were published
down to Local Government level with Ward
statistics available on the Northern Ireland
Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
website: http://www.nisra.gov.uk/census/
Census2001Output/KeyStatistics
keystatrep.html
Population
estimates following
the 2001 Census
Scotland published final mid-year estimates
for 1982–2000, revised in the light of the
Census, on 27 February 2003. These revisions
included estimates at the council level and
provided breakdowns by sex and single year
age groups. Revisions for health board areas
will be produced in Spring 2003.
England and Wales/United Kingdom
Mid-2001 population estimates for England
and Wales, based on the 2001 Census, were
published on 10 October 2002. Final mid-1991
estimates for England and Wales, revised in the
light of the Census, were published on 13
February 2003. Similarly revised figures for
1992–2000 and for 1982–1990 were published
on 27 February and 27 March respectively. All
three releases included estimates at the
subnational level and provided breakdowns by
sex and age groups. ONS also published the
corresponding final estimates for the United
Kingdom.
Marital status estimates for Scotland for 2001
and final revised estimates for 1982–2000,
consistent with the revised mid-year estimates
published on 27 February 2003, will be
published in Summer 2003.
It is planned that the marital status estimates
for England and Wales for 2001 and final
revised estimates for years prior to 2001 will
be published in Summer 2003. This will
complete the rebasing of the mid-year
population estimates for England and Wales
following the 2001 Census.
Standard Tables providing cross tabulations of
the main variables were released in March 2003
with further detailed analysis to follow. The
main dissemination vehicles are the NISRA
website and CD products.
Scotland
Mid-year population estimates, based on the
2001 Census were published on 30 September
2002. The General Register Office for
Profile of the United Kingdom population by 5-year age groups, 2001 Census
United Kingdom
90 and over
Men
Women
85–89
80–84
75–79
70–74
65–69
60–64
55–59
50–54
45–49
40–44
35–39
30–34
UK Average
25–29
20–24
15–19
10–14
5–9
0–4
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
Spring 2003
4
6
8
10
Percentage
Source: 2001 Census.
For more information see http://www.statistics.gov.uk/census 2001/pyramids/pages/UK.asp
Northern Ireland
Mid-year population estimates for 2001, based
on the 2001 Census, were published on 30
September 2002. The Northern Ireland
Statistics and Research Agency published final
rebased population estimates for 1992 to 2000
on 10 October. This completed the rebasing of
the population estimates for Northern Ireland
following the 2001 Census.
Revision of life
expectancy
estimates following
the 2001 Census
National figures
The figures for life expectancy at birth and at
selected ages in 2000 (based on the three-year
period 1999–2001) in reference tables 2.2 and
5.1 are taken from the interim life tables for
1999–2001 published by the Government
Actuary’s Department (GAD) on 27 February
2003. These use the mid-2001, and revised
mid-2000 and mid-1999, population
denominators described above. The life
expectancy figures for earlier years in tables
2.2 and 2.5 were calculated using population
estimates based on the 1981 and 1991
Censuses. GAD have now recalculated the
figures from 1980–1982 to 1998–2000
following publication of the final revised
population estimates based on the 2001
Census. The figures are available within the
revised interim life tables for the United
Kingdom and its constituent countries, which
were published on 15 April and can be found
on GAD’s website
http://www.gad.gov.uk. These revised figures
will be included in tables 2.2 and 5.1 in
Population Trends 112 (Summer 2003 issue).
Local figures
Following the release of re-based population
estimates for local authorities from 1991 to
2000, previously published life expectancy at
birth results for these areas have been revised.
Figures are available for three-year periods
from 1991–1993 to 1999–2001. All results are
based on three-year aggregates of mortality
data and mid-year population estimates. They
are available for Government Office Regions
and local authorities on the National Statistics
website at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/
statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=8841
3
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
These figures replace interim results published
by ONS on the National Statistics website in
November 2002.The interim figures from
1991–1993 to 1998–2000 were based on threeyear aggregates of mortality data and mid-year
population estimates based on the 1991
Census. Two sets of interim life expectancy
figures for 1999–2001 were also published for
comparative purposes, the first using mid-year
population estimates for 2000 and the second
using mid-year estimates for 2001, based on
the 2001 Census.
A further report on life expectancy at birth in
England and Wales is planned for Health
Statistics Quarterly later in 2003. This will
present trends from 1991 onwards for the areas
covered by Strategic Health Authorities and
Directorates of Health and Social Care.
Contraception and
sexual health, 2001
In 2001/02 the most common forms of
contraception used by women aged under 50
were the contraceptive pill (used by 28 per
cent of women), the male condom (used by 21
per cent of women), and sterilisation (10 per
cent of women had been sterilised and 12 per
cent had a partner who had had a vasectomy),
according to a recent report1 published by the
ONS.
A quarter (25 per cent) of women were not
using any method of contraception, and half of
these women (13 per cent of all women aged
16–49) were not currently in a heterosexual
relationship.
The report presents the results of a survey for
the Department of Health on contraception and
sexual health carried out in 2001/02 as part of
the National Statistics Omnibus Survey.
Reports were also published with the results of
four earlier surveys conducted in 1997/98,
1998/99, 1999/2000 and 2000/01. It includes
an examination of any significant changes in
the data between 2000/01 and 2001/02.
Contraceptive use among women aged
under 50
The use of the contraceptive pill and male
condom were associated with age:
●
Women aged under 30 were more likely to
use the contraceptive pill than older
women.
●
The use of both the contraceptive pill and
the male condom fell as respondents’ age
increased.
●
Women aged 18–34 were more likely to be
using the contraceptive pill than the male
condom. Among women aged 40 and over
this pattern is reversed.
Women ‘at risk’ of pregnancy
Three-fifths (60 per cent) of women aged 16–49
were ‘at risk’ of pregnancy (that is, they were in
a heterosexual relationship but were neither
pregnant nor protected by their own or their
partner’s sterilisation). Eighty-eight per cent of
women ‘at risk’ of pregnancy were currently
using a method of contraception. Eight per cent
were not using any method of contraception
because of infertility, the menopause or they
wanted to become pregnant, and a further four
per cent were not using contraception for other
reasons. Almost half (47 per cent) of women ‘at
risk’ of pregnancy were currently using the
contraceptive pill.
Family planning services
Three in five (60 per cent) women aged 16–49
had received family planning advice in the five
years prior to interview. The majority of these
women had visited their own GP or practice
nurse (79 per cent) for this purpose and
slightly more than a third (36 per cent) had
visited a family planning clinic.
Sterilisation and vasectomies
Ten per cent of women aged 16–49 and 15 per
cent of men aged 16–69 had had an operation
to make them sterile.
Among women the likelihood of having had an
operation to become sterile rose with age.
Over nine in ten (92 per cent) women who had
been sterilised had had their operation carried
out by the NHS compared with only two-thirds
(66 per cent) of men.
Condom use
Two-fifths (41 per cent) of men aged 16–69
and just under half (48 per cent) of women
aged 16-49 who had had a sexual relationship
in the last year said that they had used a male
condom in the year prior to interview. When
men and women of the same age are compared
there is little difference between the sexes in
their use of the male condom.
The only statistically significant differences
between men and women were found among
those in their twenties: in this age group men
were more likely than women to have used a
male condom in the year prior to interview (for
example, 83 per cent of
men aged 20-24 compared with 66 per cent of
women in the same age group).
Respondents most likely to have used a male
condom in the last year if they were young (the
proportion of men and women who had used a
condom in the last year fell as age increased)
or had multiple sexual partners in the last year.
Knowledge of sexually transmitted
infections
Respondents were asked whether they felt that
their behaviour had been influenced by their
knowledge of HIV/AIDS and other sexually
transmitted infections:
●
●
The likelihood of a woman having been
sterilised or having a partner who had had
a vasectomy rose with age.
National Statistics
4
Over three-fifths of men and women said
that their behaviour had not been affected
(65 per cent of men aged 16–69 and 62 per
cent of women aged 16–49).
●
Three in ten men aged 16–69 and women
aged 16–49 said that they use a condom
more often than they used to (29 per cent
and 30 per cent respectively).
●
Six per cent of men aged 16–69 and seven
per cent of women aged 16–49 said that
they have fewer one night stands.
Television programmes remained the main
source of information about HIV/AIDS and
other sexually transmitted infections (40 per
cent).
Since 2000/01 the proportion of men aged
16–69 and women aged 16–49 who correctly
identified Chlamydia as a sexually transmitted
infection increased from 35 per cent to 45 per
cent of men and among women rose from 65
per cent to 73 per cent.
Reference
1 Dawe F and Meltzer H (2003) Contraception and
Sexual Health, 2001, Office for National Statistics:
London, available on the National Statistics website
at www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/
Product.asp?vlnk=6988
Conceptions in
England and Wales,
2001
A recent report1 published in Health Statistics
Quarterly 17 showed provisional estimated
numbers and rates of conceptions for women
usually resident in England and Wales in 2001.
Some of the key observations were:
•
In 2001 there were an estimated 763
thousand conceptions in England and
Wales, compared to 767 thousand in 2000,
a reduction of 0.5 per cent (Table A).
• Nearly four-fifths of these conceptions
resulted in a maternity (Table A). This
proportion has remained fairly stable over
the past 11 years.
• Ninety one per cent of conceptions within
marriage resulted in a maternity compared
with just 64 per cent of conceptions outside
marriage (Table A). In 2001, 53 per cent of
conceptions were outside marriage
compared with 43 per cent in 1990.
• Since 1990, conception rates for older
women (aged 30 and over) have risen
while rates for women in their twenties
have generally fallen (Figure 1).
Explanatory Notes
Conceptions data combine information from
registration of births and notifications of legal
abortions occurring in England and Wales for
women who are usually resident there.
Under arrangements made following
implementation of the Abortion Act 1967, the
Office for National Statistics and its
predecessors processed and analysed the
abortion notification forms (HSA4) sent to the
Chief Medical Officers of England and Wales.
Population Trends 111
Conception statistics include pregnancies that
result in:
●
One or more live or still births (a
maternity), or
●
A legal abortion under the Abortion Act
1967 (an abortion).
They do not include miscarriages or illegal
abortions.
The statistics shown are provisional, being
based on the returns available to ONS at 23
December 2002. Final figures will be
published in Births Statistics 2002 Series FM1
No 31 in December 2003.
England and Wales
(1990 = 100)
150
145
Table A
40 and over
140
135
35–39
130
125
120
115
110
30–34
105
100
Under 18
95
90
Under 20
25–29
85
20–24
80
75
Date of conception
The date of conception is estimated using
recorded gestation for abortions and stillbirths,
and assuming 38 weeks gestation for live births.
Age at conception
A woman’s age at conception is calculated as
the number of complete years between her date
of birth and the date she conceived. In many
cases her birthday will occur between
conception and the birth or abortion; a woman
may conceive, for example, at age 19 and give
birth at age 20. The conception and birth may
Relative changes in age-specific conception rates,
1990–2001
Figure 1
Relative change in conception rate (percentage)
From 1st April 2002, the Department of Health
has taken over this work and the system has
been redesigned to process the new abortion
notification forms that were introduced from
18th April 2002. These changes have
temporarily slowed the processing of the
forms, which in turn has affected data quality.
The data supplied to ONS on abortions
performed on residents of England and Wales
between 1 April 2002 and 30 June 2002 that
contribute to the 2001 conceptions figures
were provisional and incomplete.
Spring 2003
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 1995 1996 1997
Year of conception
also occur in different calendar years. For
these reasons the number of conceptions to
teenage women in a given year, for example,
does not match the number of maternities and
abortions to teenagers occurring in that year.
1998
1999
2000
2001
Reference
1 Office for National Statistics (2003)
Conceptions in England and Wales, 2001.
Health Statistics Quarterly 17, 72–74.
The full report appears in Health Statistics
Quarterly 17.
All age, teenage and underage conceptions (numbers and percentages): outcome by occurrence within/outside marriage
Residents
England and Wales
Age of woman at conception*/year of conception
Under 20
All ages
All conceptions
Base number (thousands)
Percentage leading to:
maternity
legal abortion
Conceptions inside marriage
Base number (thousands)
Percentage leading to:
maternity
legal abortion
Conceptions outside marriage
Base number (thousands)
Percentage leading to:
maternity outside marriage
registered by mother alone
maternity outside marriage
registered by both parents
maternity inside marriage
legal abortion
Under 16
1990
1995
2000
2001
1990
1995
2000
2001
1990
1995
2000
2001
871.5
790.3
767.0
763.3
113.3
86.6
97.7
95.9
8.1
8.1
8.1
7.9
80
20
80
20
77
23
77
23
64
36
65
35
61
39
60
40
49
51
52
48
46
54
44
56
494.4
417.7
366.2
359.2
10.9
6.6
6.5
6.3
:
:
:
:
92
8
92
8
91
9
91
9
95
5
95
5
93
7
94
6
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
377.1
372.5
400.8
404.1
102.5
80.0
91.2
89.6
8.1
8.0
8.1
7.9
14
13
11
11
19
19
16
15
25
23
20
19
41
9
36
47
7
33
48
5
36
48
5
36
36
6
39
41
3
37
40
2
42
40
2
43
23
1
51
28
1
48
26
0
54
24
0
56
* Conceptions leading to maternities or legal abortions – those which result in spontaneous miscarriage are not included.
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding.
5
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
Demographic indicators
Figure A
England and Wales
Population change (mid-year to mid-year)
Thousands
300
Natural change
Net migration and
other changes
Total change
200
100
0
-100
7
19
1–
72
4
3
–7
72
Figure B
–7
73
6
5
–7
74
–7
75
7
–7
76
9
8
–7
77
–7
78
1
0
–8
79
–8
80
2
–8
81
4
3
–8
82
–8
83
5
–8
84
0
1
6
7
9
8
1
0
2
4
3
6
5
7
8
9
–8 6–8 7–8 8–8 9–9 0–9 1–9 2–9 3–9 4–9 5–9 6–9 7–9 8-9 200 0–0
9 9–
0
85
8
8
8
9
8
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
0
9
2
Mid-year
Total period fertility rate
TFR (average number of children per woman)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
Figure C
Live births outside marriage
Percentage of all live births
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
Figure D
Infant mortality (under 1 year)
Rate per 1,000 live births
20
15
10
5
0
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
National Statistics
6
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
Interim 2001-based national
population projections for
the United Kingdom and
constituent countries
Chris Shaw
Government Actuary’s
Department
This article describes new
2001-based national
population projections which
were carried out following
the publication in
September 2002 of the first
results of the 2001 Census.
These “interim” projections,
carried out by the
Government Actuary in
consultation with the
Registrars General, take
preliminary account of the
results of the Census which
showed that the base
population used in previous
projections was
overestimated. The interim
projections also incorporate
a reduced assumption of net
international migration to
the United Kingdom,
informed by the first results
of the 2001 Census and
taking account of more
recent migration
information. The population
of the United Kingdom is
now projected to increase
from an estimated 58.8
million in 2001 to reach 63.2
million by 2026. The
projected population at 2026
is about 1.8 million (2.8 per
cent) lower than in the
previous (2000-based)
projections.
INTRODUCTION
The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) produces the official
national population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent
countries, usually every second year, at the request of the Registrars
General of England & Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The
assumptions are agreed in consultation with the statistical offices of the four
countries. The latest ‘full’ set of projections, based on the estimated
population of the UK in mid-2000, was published by GAD in November
2001.1
However, following consultation with the Registrars General of England &
Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, it was agreed that the Government
Actuary should carry out an additional ‘interim’ 2001-based set of national
population projections for the UK and its constituent countries. This
followed the publication in September 2002 of the first results of the 2001
Census.2 The interim 2001-based national population projections were
published on 1 November 2002. These projections replace the previous
2000-based national projections.
These interim 2001-based projections take preliminary account of the
results of the 2001 Census which show that the base population used in the
previous projections was overestimated. The interim projections also
incorporate a revised assumption of net international migration to the
United Kingdom, informed by the first results of the 2001 Census and
taking account of more recent migration information. Assumed long-term
fertility and mortality rates are unchanged from the 2000-based projections.
The next full set of national population projections, based on the population
at the middle of 2002, are scheduled for release in October 2003. These will
7
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
be based on a full reassessment of trends in fertility, mortality and
migration and will take into account the further Census-related data
which will become available during 2003.
IMPACT OF THE CENSUS ON NATIONAL POPULATION
PROJECTIONS
The above information is summarised in Box One.
The estimated population of the United Kingdom at mid-2001, based on
2001 Census results, was 58,837,000.3 This estimate is 919,000 lower
than the estimated population at mid-2000 on which the previous
national projections were based, and 1,150,000 lower than the 2000based projection of the population at mid-2001.
Box one
SUMMARY OF RECENT, CURRENT AND NEXT
NATIONAL PROJECTIONS
Projection
1998-based
2000-based
2001-based
(interim)
Published in
November 1999
November 2001
November 2002
2002-based
October 2003
(prov.)
Key points
Full review of all assumptions
Full review of all assumptions
Base population based on
2001 Census; Interim review
of migration; No change to
fertility and mortality
Full review of all assumptions
This article presents the main results from the interim 2001-based
national population projections. The main focus of these projections is
on the next twenty-five years, i.e. up to 2026. However, the results of
longer-term projections are included in the graphs in this article and
discussed where appropriate. The main areas where the Census results
and the related revision to migration assumptions have altered the likely
prospects for future population size and structure are highlighted. The
article also gives results of variant population projections based on
alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and net migration.
The two main consequences of the 2001 Census results for the national
population projections are that:
•
the mid-2000 population estimates, on which the latest ‘full’ GAD
projections were based, overestimated the population of the United
Kingdom by about 1.1 million; and
•
the assumption in GAD’s 2000-based principal projection of future
long-term net inward migration to the UK of 135,000 persons a
year was based on estimates of recent net inward international
migration which are now known to have been significantly
overestimated.
The overestimation of the population was concentrated amongst males
aged 20 to 39. This implies a significant gender differential in recent
migration trends.4 The Census results therefore also have important
implications for the assumed age/sex distribution of future international
migrants.
However, to take full account of 2001 Census data, considerably more
information is required than the official mid-2001 population estimates
based on the 2001 Census, which were published in September 2002
(for Scotland and Northern Ireland) and October 2002 (for England and
Wales). In particular, the following are needed:
•
revised population estimates for earlier years consistent with 2001
Census data (estimates for England, Wales and Scotland are being
revised back to 1982, those for Northern Ireland back to 1992);
•
revised estimates of total international migration for past years; and
•
revised estimates of international migration by age and sex for past
years.
For availability of subnational population projections, see Box two.
Box two
SUBNATIONAL PROJECTIONS
Subnational projections for England are the
responsibility of the Office for National Statistics, while
those for the other countries are produced by the
General Register Office for Scotland, the National
Assembly for Wales and the Northern Ireland Statistics
and Research Agency respectively.
The availability of subnational projections for the four
countries was summarised in the corresponding article
on the 2000-based national projections. 8 There are no
interim 2001-based subnational projections as much of
the required information from the 2001 Census is not
yet available. However, each country is looking to
produce 2002-based subnational projections during
2004. These projections will take full account of the
findings of the 2001 Census.
National Statistics
8
Very little of this information was available when the 2001-based
projections were prepared (and most of what was available was on a
provisional basis). More data has been published subsequently5 ,6 and
the remaining required data will become available later in 2003. All of
this information will be taken into account in preparing the 2002-based
projections. GAD expects to publish these projections in October 2003.
It was, therefore, not possible to take full account of the implications of
the 2001 Census for the interim 2001-based projections, but these
interim projections:
•
are based on the estimated population at mid-2001 derived from the
2001 Census and therefore ‘correct’ for the overestimation of the
base population in the 2000-based projections; and
•
incorporate revised assumptions of net international migration to
the United Kingdom agreed with the Registrars General. This is
necessarily a very provisional revision. A full reassessment of
trends in international migration will be made for the 2002-based
projections, when the full range of Census-related data has become
available.
Population Trends 111
For the interim 2001-based projections, the long-term fertility and
mortality assumptions are unchanged from the 2000-based projections.
Again, GAD will make a full assessment of the effect of 2001 Census
results on fertility and mortality trends for the 2002-based projections
taking account of the revised population denominators for the period
1982 to 2000.
BASE POPULATION
The 2001-based projections are based on the mid-2001 population
estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics, the General
Register Office for Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and
Research Agency.7 The estimated population of the United Kingdom at
mid-2001 was 58.8 million. As Table 1 shows, this was 1.15 million
(1.9 per cent) lower than the 2000-based projection of the population at
mid-2001. This was a consequence of the base population in the
previous projections having been an overestimate. The mid-2001
estimates were lower than had been expected for each country of the
UK, ranging from 2.1 per cent lower in England to 0.9 per cent lower in
both Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Table 1
Population at mid-2001: mid-2001 estimates
(based on 2001 Census) and 2000-based
projections
thousands
Population at mid-2001
United Kingdom
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
Table 2
Difference
mid-2001
estimates
2000-based
projections
000s
percentage
58,837
49,181
2,903
5,064
1,689
59,987
50,225
2,949
5,109
1,705
–1,151
–1,044
–46
–44
–15
–1.9
–2.1
–1.6
–0.9
–0.9
Spring 2003
The difference between the mid-2001 estimates and the 2000-based
projection of the UK population at mid-2001 by age and sex is shown in
Figure 1a. (Similar charts for the individual countries of the UK can be
found on the GAD website.) The male population was about 1 million
lower than had been expected and this was concentrated on the 20–39
age group. However, the female population was only about 160
thousand lower than expected and at some ages, notably the peak
childbearing ages of the late 20s, the census showed there were actually
slightly more women than had been thought.
UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS
The assumptions used in the interim 2001-based national population
projections are summarised in Table 2.
Fertility and mortality
As noted above, long-term fertility and mortality assumptions are
unchanged from those used in the 2000-based projections. These were
summarised in the corresponding article on the 2000–based national
projections.8 However, assumptions for the first year of the interim
projections (i.e. 2001– 02) were adjusted to agree with provisional
estimates of births and deaths during that period.
Trends in fertility and mortality for the period since 1982 will be
reassessed for the 2002–based projections. However, given that the
estimated number of women of childbearing age at mid-2001 was close
to what was expected, it is unlikely that the Census will have any
significant effect on the estimation of past fertility trends. However,
because the Census showed that there were significantly fewer men
aged 20–39 in the population than had been thought, it follows that
male mortality rates at these ages have been underestimated in recent
years. It is likely, therefore, that assumed male mortality rates for those
aged 20–39 will be revised upwards in the 2002-based projections.
Nevertheless, because mortality rates at these ages are very low, this
will have only a small effect on the number of men surviving to older
ages and on overall mortality measures such as the expectation of life at
birth.
Assumptions for individual countries, interim 2001-based projections
Total fertility rate
Net annual migration (000s)
2001–02
2005–06
2010–11
from
2014–15
2000-based
from 2014–15
from 2002–03
2000-based
from 2002–03
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
1.63
1.64
1.47
1.77
1.71
1.74
1.55
1.78
1.74
1.75
1.58
1.80
1.75
1.75
1.60
1.80
1.75
1.75
1.60
1.80
97.0
5.5
–1.0
–1.5
128.0
7.5
0.0
–0.5
United Kingdom
1.62
1.70
1.73
1.74
1.74
100.0
135.0
Expectation of life at birth (years)
Males
Females
2001–02
2010–11
2020–21
2024–25
2000-based
from 2024–25
2001–02
2010–11
2020–21
2024–25
2000-based
from 2024–25
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
76.2
75.7
73.8
75.8
77.6
77.1
75.0
76.8
78.8
78.3
76.2
78.0
79.2
78.6
76.5
78.3
79.2
78.6
76.5
78.3
80.7
80.1
79.2
80.5
81.7
81.2
79.9
81.3
83.0
82.5
81.2
82.5
83.4
82.9
81.6
82.9
83.4
82.9
81.6
82.9
United Kingdom
75.9
77.3
78.6
78.9
78.9
80.5
81.5
82.8
83.2
83.2
9
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Figure 1
Spring 2003
Population at 2001 and 2026 by age and sex: mid-2001 estimates and interim 2001-based projections compared
with 2000-based projections
United Kingdom
(b) Projected population at 2026
(a) Population at 2001
6
▲ 2001-based projection
12
greater than
2000-based projection
3
10
8
Percentage difference
4
0
mid-2001 estimate
greater than
2000-based projection
Percentage difference
▲
6
2
0
-2
-4
-8
-6
-9
mid-2001 estimate
less than
▼ 2000-based projection
-6
-3
-12
2001-based projection
less than
▼ 2000-based projection
-10
-12
-15
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Age
Males
Migration
Assumptions of future international migration have been derived from
analyses of recent trends in civilian migration to and from the United
Kingdom, as measured by the International Passenger Survey (IPS).
Allowance has also been made for sources of international migration
not covered by the IPS, namely migration with the Irish Republic,
asylum seekers allowed to remain in the UK and “visitor switchers”
(people who enter the country as short-term visitors, but who are
subsequently granted an extension of stay for a year or longer).
Assumptions of future international migration are therefore based on
estimates of these different components. However, the 2001 Census
results showed that overall estimates of net international migration to
the UK made over the last two decades had been significantly
overestimated. The average annual overestimation of net migration was
about 80,000. [This was calculated from a comparison of estimated
population growth from the ‘original’ population estimates, i.e. those
based on the 1991 Census, with growth recalculated from interim
rebased population estimates taking account of 2001 Census results.] To
prevent this overestimation affecting assumptions of future net
migration, a downward ‘net migration adjustment’ of 80,000 – i.e.
equivalent to the average annual overestimation of net migration since
1991 – was made.9
It should be emphasised that this was necessarily an imprecise and
provisional way of dealing with this issue. Later in 2003, following an
assessment of the accuracy of population estimates made since 1981,
the Office for National Statistics will publish final revised estimates of
international migration to and from the United Kingdom and its
constituent countries (some provisional interim estimates have already
National Statistics
10
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Age
Females
been published5). International migration assumptions for future
national population projections will be based on this revised series.
The composition of the long-term net migration assumptions for the UK
in the interim 2001-based projections, compared with that assumed for
the 2000-based projections, is as follows:
Long-term annual net migration assumptions, United
Kingdom
Total net migration
As covered by IPS
Irish Republic
Asylum seekers
Visitor switchers
Net migration adjustment
Interim
2001-based
projections
2000-based
projections
+100,000
+140,000
–10,000
+30,000
+20,000
–80,000
+135,000
+100,000
–5,000
+20,000
+20,000
n/a
Despite the downward net migration adjustment of 80,000 reflecting the
overestimation of net migration revealed by the census, the long-term
assumption of net migration into the United Kingdom has been reduced
by only 35,000 persons per year from 135,000 to 100,000. This reflects
continuing increases in the levels of net migration recorded by the IPS
and an increase in the assumed number of asylum seekers allowed to
remain in the UK.
The net migration assumptions for the constituent countries of the
United Kingdom are shown in Table 2. These combine assumptions
regarding the distribution of international migration with assumptions
about cross-border migration between the four countries. The crossborder assumptions are unchanged from those used in the 2000-based
Population Trends 111
Figure 2
Population of the United Kingdom and constituent countries, revised population estimates and interim 2001based projections compared with original estimates and 2000-based projections
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, 1991–2041
United Kingdom and England, 1991–2071
70
5.5
5.5
70
5.0
United Kingdom
65
5.0
Scotland
65
60
60
England
55
55
50
50
45
45
Millions
Millions
Spring 2003
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
Wales
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
Northern Ireland
1.5
1.5
40
1991
2001
2011
2021
2031
Year
2041
2051
2061
40
2071
1.0
1991
2.0
2001
2011
2021
2031
1.0
2041
Year
Rebased estimates
Interim 2001-based projections
Original estimates
2000-based projections
projections but will be reviewed for the next (2002-based) projections.
However, because of the reduced assumption of international migration,
the assumed net inflows are lower (or net outflows are higher) for each
of the four countries.
TOTAL POPULATION SIZE
The results of the new interim projections are summarised for the
constituent countries of the United Kingdom in Table 3 and compared
with the results of the 2000-based projections in Figure 2. The
projections for the individual countries are carried forward for forty
years, i.e. until 2041, but to 2071 for the UK as a whole as shown in
Figure 2.
The population of the United Kingdom is projected to increase gradually
from 58.8 million in 2001 to reach 63.2 million by 2026. This is
equivalent to an average annual rate of growth of 0.28 per cent. Around
60 per cent of the projected 4.3 million increase between 2001 and 2026
is attributable to the assumed level of net inward migration. The
remainder is due to projected natural increase (more births than deaths).
Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2040 at
nearly 64 million and then gradually start to fall.
The population of Scotland is projected to continue to decline slowly
from 2001, while the populations of Wales and Northern Ireland are
projected to peak in around 25 years’ time and then start to fall. The
population of England is still projected to be increasing at 2041 but at a
very low rate of growth.
Comparison with 2000-based projections
Future population sizes are lower than previously projected. The
projected total population of each country is compared with the 2000-
based projections in Table 4 and the difference between the two
projections is broken down into changes in the base population and
changes in the projected number of births, deaths and migrants.
Reductions in the projected numbers of deaths (as compared with the
2000-based projections) are shown as positive numbers in the table as
they contribute to an increase in the size of the population.
For the UK as a whole, the projected total population in 2026 is about
1.8 million (2.8 per cent) lower than previously projected. The
reduction at 2026 is 3.0 per cent for England, 2.5 per cent for Wales, 2.2
per cent for Northern Ireland and 1.7 per cent for Scotland. This is
because of the overestimation of the base population in the previous
projections coupled with the effect of the reduced assumption of net
inward migration, itself a consequence of the Census results.
Wales and Northern Ireland are now projected to reach their peak
population sizes in 2029 and 2026 respectively, about the same time as
in the 2000-based projections. As in the previous projections, the
population of England is still growing in forty years’ time, whereas the
population of Scotland is still projected to decline continuously.
The effects of the reduced base population and the lower migration
assumption are marginally offset by there being (for the UK as a whole)
slightly more projected births and slightly fewer projected deaths. A
reduction in the number of deaths is to be expected given the lower
overall population size. The slight increase in births arises despite the
reduction in the base population and the reduction in the net migration
assumption. This is because both of these reductions are concentrated
amongst males. Indeed, the new net migration assumption for females
is very slightly higher than in the 2000-based projections.
11
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Table 3
Spring 2003
Components of change: five year summary, 2001–2026
annual averages (thousands)
2001–2006
2006–2011
2011–2016
2016–2021
2021–2026
58,837
675
613
59,657
683
609
60,524
698
611
61,459
709
624
62,386
705
651
Natural change
Net migration
62
102
73
100
87
100
85
100
54
100
Total change
Population at end
164
59,657
173
60,524
187
61,459
185
62,386
154
63,156
England
Population at start
Births
Deaths
49,181
571
506
49,994
579
503
50,859
594
504
51,790
606
516
52,725
605
539
Natural change
Net migration
65
97
76
97
89
97
90
97
66
97
Total change
Population at end
163
49,994
173
50,859
186
51,790
187
52,725
163
53,541
Wales
Population at start
Births
Deaths
2,903
31
33
2,926
32
33
2,947
33
33
2,972
33
34
2,997
32
35
–2
7
–1
6
–0
6
–1
6
–2
6
5
4
5
5
3
Population at end
2,926
2,947
2,972
2,997
3,012
Scotland
Population at start
Births
Deaths
5,064
52
59
5,023
51
58
4,983
50
57
4,943
50
58
4,895
48
60
Natural change
Net migration
–7
–1
–7
–1
–7
–1
–9
–1
–12
–1
Total change
–8
–8
–8
–10
–13
Population at end
5,023
4,983
4,943
4,895
4,828
Northern Ireland
Population at start
Births
Deaths
1,689
21
15
1,714
21
15
1,735
21
16
1,754
21
16
1,769
20
17
6
–1
6
–2
5
–2
4
–2
3
–2
5
4
4
3
1
1,714
1,735
1,754
1,769
1,775
United Kingdom
Population at start
Births
Deaths
Natural change
Net migration
Total change
Natural change
Net migration
Total change
Population at end
National Statistics
12
Population Trends 111
Table 4
Spring 2003
Change in projected population compared with the 2000-based projections
thousands
Country
Change due to
Interim
2001-based
projections
2000-based
projections
Total change
base
population*
projected
births
projected
deaths**
projected
migrants
Population at 2011
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
United Kingdom
50,859
2,947
4,983
1,735
60,524
52,151
3,000
5,047
1,759
61,956
–1,292
–53
–64
–24
–1,432
–1,044
–46
–44
–15
–1,151
17
2
–1
0
18
60
4
–9
1
57
–325
–14
–10
–10
–357
Population at 2021
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
United Kingdom
52,725
2,997
4,895
1,769
62,386
54,262
3,067
4,973
1,803
64,105
–1,537
–70
–78
–34
–1,719
–1,044
–46
–44
–15
–1,151
46
3
1
0
50
97
6
–14
0
89
–635
–34
–20
–20
–707
Population at 2026
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
United Kingdom
53,541
3,012
4,828
1,775
63,156
55,178
3,088
4,911
1,814
64,992
–1,637
–76
–83
–39
–1,836
–1,044
–46
–44
–15
–1,151
63
5
2
0
70
133
8
–15
0
127
–790
–44
–25
–25
–882
* Difference between the estimated population at mid-2001 and the 2000-based projection of the population at mid-2001.
** Reductions in the projected number of deaths (compared with the previous projections) are shown as positive numbers as they contribute to an increase in the size of the
population.
Table 5
Projected population by age, 2001–2026
United Kingdom
thousands
Age group
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
All ages
0–14
15–29
30–44
45–59
60–74
75 & over
58,837
11,091
11,073
13,291
11,144
7,820
4,418
59,657
10,624
11,428
12,996
11,735
8,280
4,594
60,524
10,329
11,800
12,133
12,223
9,266
4,774
61,459
10,341
11,718
11,644
12,868
9,822
5,066
62,386
10,517
11,258
11,997
12,582
10,407
5,625
63,156
10,630
10,967
12,370
11,760
10,954
6,475
Mean age (years)
39.1
39.8
40.5
41.2
41.8
42.4
Under 16
Working age*
Pensionable age*
11,855
36,154
10,828
11,422
36,953
11,283
11,064
37,492
11,968
11,020
38,390
12,049
11,210
38,999
12,177
11,332
38,651
13,173
328
299
627
309
305
614
295
319
614
287
314
601
287
312
600
293
341
634
Dependants per 1,000
persons of working age
Under 16
Pensionable age*
Total*
* Working age and pensionable age populations based on the state pension age for given year. Between 2010 and 2020, state pension age will change from 65 for men and 60 years
for women, to 65 years for both sexes.
13
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTION
Table 5 summarises the projected age structure of the population. The
population will become gradually older with the mean age of the
population rising from 39.1 years in 2001 to 42.4 years by 2026.
Longer-term projections show continuing ageing with the mean age
eventually stabilising at nearly 44 years from 2040.
The number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall by 7.3 per
cent from 11.9 million in 2001 to just below 11 million in 2014 and
then to rise slowly to 2026. The number of people of working age
(currently defined as 16 to 64 for men and 16 to 59 for women) is
projected to rise by 3.7 per cent from 36.2 million in 2001 to 37.5
million in 2011. Allowing for the planned change in women’s state
pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020,10 the working age
population would rise further to 39.0 million by 2021 and then
gradually start to fall.
In 2001, there were just over one million more children aged under 16
than people of state pensionable age. However, as a result of these
changes, from 2007 the population of state pensionable age is projected
to exceed the number of children and by 2026 is projected to exceed it
by nearly 2 million.
Comparison with 2000-based projections
The population at 2026 by age and sex from the interim 2001-based
projections is compared with that from the 2000-based projections in
Figure 1b. (Again, similar charts for the individual countries of the UK
can be found on the GAD website.) Many of the key features of this
analysis follow from the comparison of the mid-2001 base population
with the 2000-based projection of the population at mid-2001 in Figure
1a. A similar comparison of sex ratios in 2001 and 2026 from the 2000based and interim 2001-based projections is given in Figure 3.
Even ignoring the change in women’s state pension age, the working
age population will become much older as the baby boom generations
of the mid 1960s age. So, during the period to 2016, the number of
adults aged under 45 is projected to fall by nearly one million (4 per
cent). However, the 45 to 59 age group is projected to increase by 15
per cent over the same period, from 11.1 million in 2001 to 12.9 million
in 2016.
The results for 2026 clearly depend on the assumptions made about the
age distribution of future migrants, which is a particularly uncertain
aspect of the projection process at the present time. Normally, migrant
age distributions for projection purposes are derived directly from the
same data sources used to derive estimates of total migration flows.
However, as noted above, these data sources have overestimated net
migration in total. Also this past overestimation of net migration has not
been uniform across the population, but has been concentrated amongst
males aged 20 to 39.
The number of people over pensionable age is projected to increase by
10.5 per cent from 10.8 million in 2001 to 12.0 million in 2011.
However, with the increase in women’s state pension age, the
population of pensionable age will rise only slightly further (to 12.2
million) by 2021. A faster increase will then resume with longer-term
projections suggesting the number over pensionable age peaking at over
15 million around 2040. Without the change in women’s state pension
age, the population of pensionable age would have risen to 14.2 million
by 2021, eventually reaching 17 million.
Therefore, for the purposes of these interim projections, GAD
calculated an age and sex distribution for the total ‘net migration
adjustment’ mentioned above. This was calculated so that, when
combined with the age distributions obtained from the other migration
data sources, projected sex ratios at young ages (roughly up to the late
20s) in future years would be broadly similar to those observed in the
2001 Census. Implicitly, the assumption being made is that the
migration trends which have brought about the present age and sex
structure of the population at younger ages will continue unchanged.
Figure 3
Sex ratios at 2001 and 2026, mid-2001 estimates and interim 2001-based projections compared with 2000-based
projections
United Kingdom
(b) 2026
(a) 2001
120
120
2000-based projection
2000-based projection
100
100
mid-2001 estimate
Males per 100 females
Males per 100 females
2001-based projection
80
60
40
20
80
60
40
20
0
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
Age
National Statistics
60
14
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
Age
60
70
80
90
Population Trends 111
A further consequence of the assumed age and sex distributions is that,
simply because of population ageing, the lower sex ratios will spread
progressively to older ages. So, the Census results showed that current
sex ratios are significantly lower than previously thought between ages
20 to 40, but Figure 3 shows lower ratios than previously projected up
to age 65 by the year 2026.
Revised estimates of migration by age for previous years will become
available later in 2003. These will provide a stronger basis for the
migrant age distributions to be applied in future projections. In general,
important areas for future research will be to investigate whether the
gender differentials in migration revealed by the Census are likely to
continue and to what extent males (in particular) who leave the country
at young ages may be likely to return at older ages.
However, despite these uncertainties about the future age and sex
distribution of migrants and their impact on future sex ratios, projected
long-term trends in broad age groups are not significantly different
from previous projections, as illustrated by Figure 4. This shows that
the broad outlook of children and young adults accounting for an
increasing lower share of the total population, and the pensionable age
population for a correspondingly higher share, has not altered.
DEPENDENCY RATIOS
Figure 5 shows projected dependency ratios, i.e. the number of children
under 16 or the population of pensionable age (or the sum of the two)
expressed as a proportion of the working age population. These are, of
course, somewhat arbitrary boundaries as, in reality, full-time education
ends, and retirement starts, at a range of ages.
Figure 4
Percentage of population in broad age groups,
2000-based and interim 2001-based
projections
The total dependency ratio will fall gradually from 627 dependants per
1,000 persons of working age in 2001 to just under 600 per 1,000 in
2020 when the increase in women’s state pension age is complete. It
will then increase rapidly, with longer-term projections suggesting a
levelling off at around 700 per 1,000 from the mid 2030s. However, this
would still be slightly lower than the ratio in the early 1970s, although
then it was children who comprised the majority of dependants. Of
course, without the planned change in women’s state pension age, the
proportion of dependants would rise earlier and further.
Figure 5 also shows how these dependency ratios differ from those
previously estimated and projected. As the reduction in the base
population is concentrated amongst those of working age, the effect is
that the current total dependency ratio and that projected for the short
and medium-term has been slightly increased. In the longer-term, the
differential gradually reduces.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
The one certainty of making population projections is that, due to the
inherent unpredictability of demographic behaviour, they will turn out
to be wrong as a forecast of future demographic events or population
structure. One way of giving users an indication of uncertainty is by
considering the performance of past projections. An analysis of the
accuracy of the national population projections made during the 1970s
and 1980s was published in Population Trends 77.11
Another way of illustrating uncertainty is by preparing variant
projections based on alternative assumptions of future fertility,
mortality and migration. For the 2000-based projections, GAD
Figure 5
Actual and projected dependency ratios,
2000-based and interim 2001-based
projections, 1991–2051
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
800
30
700
700
2001-based
Dependents per 1,000 persons of working age
800
2000-based
35
25
Percentage
Spring 2003
20
15
10
Total
600
600
500
500
Pensionable age
400
400
Children under 16
300
300
5
0
0–15
16–39
2001
40–64
2026
65+
2051
200
1991
2001
2011
Original estimates
and 2000-based
projections
15
2021
Year
2031
2041
200
2051
Rebased estimates and
interim 2001-based
projections
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
produced the most extensive set of official variant projections ever
published in the United Kingdom.12 For the first time, this included
variant projections at individual country level in addition to UK level
variants. It is likely that a similar range of variants will be published for
the 2002-based projections. However, for the interim 2001-based
projections, only ‘standard’ high and low variants for each of the three
components of population change at UK level are available. Full details
of these variants are available on the GAD website.
Compared with the principal projection assumptions, the fertility
variants assume long term family sizes of ± 0.2 children per woman.
Projected life expectancy at birth at 2026 differs by about ± 1.5 years
from the principal projection for males and by about ± 1 year for
females. These fertility and mortality assumptions are unchanged from
those used for the 2000-based variants. (Although, of course, the
projected population numbers in the resulting variants differ from the
corresponding 2000-based versions because of the reduced base
population and the revised principal net migration assumption.)
The high and low migration assumptions have been reduced in line with
the reduction in the principal assumption. The assumed high and low
long-term annual net inflows are now +160,000 and +40,000
respectively. As with the fertility and mortality variants, these
assumptions are intended as plausible alternative scenarios and not as
upper or lower limits for what might occur in the future.
Figure 6 shows the projected total population under these alternative
assumptions. It is clear that there is considerable uncertainty regarding
the future size of the population. Under these alternative, but still
plausible, fertility and migration assumptions, the population at 2026
differs from the principal projection by around ± 2 million (± 3 per
cent). The uncertainty widens with time and by 2071, the total
Figure 6
72
70
68
Population of the United Kingdom according
to principal and variant interim 2001-based
projections, 1991–2071
population under the high and low fertility assumptions differs by about
± 8 million (13 per cent) from the principal projection. Figure 6 also
shows that future population decline is not inevitable. Indeed, previous
work has shown that a long-term family size of 2.0 children per woman
coupled with net migration of 100,000 per year, for example, would
lead to continuing population growth throughout the 21st century.13
However, while population decline is not inevitable, Figure 7
demonstrates that population ageing will occur under any plausible set
of future assumptions. In 2001, some 16 per cent of the population were
aged 65 and over. But, although higher fertility levels would reduce
population ageing, even the high fertility variant in the interim 2001based projections produces an increase in the proportion aged 65 and
over to over 20 per cent by 2026 and to nearly 22 per cent by 2051. And
in the low fertility or high life expectancy variants, the proportion aged
65 and over would be above one in four by 2051.
The inevitability of population ageing is a consequence of the current
age structure of the population. This, in turn, is a result of changes in
the past numbers of births. Thus, during the first half of this century, the
number of elderly people will rise as the relatively large cohorts born
after the Second World War and during the 1960s baby boom replace at
older ages the much smaller cohorts born before 1945. Conversely at
younger ages, the relatively small cohorts born since the mid 1970s will
replace the baby boomers.
NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS ON THE INTERNET
Full details of the results of the interim 2001-based national population
projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries are
available on the GAD website www.gad.gov.uk.
Figure 7
28
72
HF = High fertility
HM = High migration
HL = High life expectancy
PP = Principal projection
LL = Low life expectancy
LM = Low migration
LF = Low fertility
28
LF = Low fertility
HL = High life expectancy
LM = Low migration
PP = Principal projection
HM = High migration
LL = Low life expectancy
HF = High fertility
HF
70
Proportion of the population aged 65 or over
according to principal and variant interim
2001-based projections, 1991–2071
26
HM
68
LF
66
66
Millions
HL
64
PP
62
LL
60
64
62
26
LM
PP
24
HM
22
LL
22
HF
20
20
18
18
16
16
60
LM
58
58
LF
56
54
1991
Percentage over 65
24
HL
56
2001
2011
2021
2031
Year
National Statistics
2041
16
2051
2061
54
2071
14
1991
2001
2011
2021
2031
Year
2041
2051
2061
14
2071
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
REFERENCES
Key findings
•
The United Kingdom population is projected to
increase gradually from an estimated 58.8 million in
2001 to over 63 million by 2026, equivalent to an
average annual rate of growth of 0.28 per cent.
Longer-term projections suggest the population
will peak around 2040 at nearly 64 million and then
gradually start to fall.
•
The projected total population of the United
Kingdom in 2026 is about 1.8 million (2.8 per cent)
lower than in the previous (2000-based)
projections. This is a consequence of the base
population in the previous projections having been
an overestimate, together with the effect of a
reduced assumption of future net inward
migration.
•
The population of Scotland is projected to
continue to decline slowly from 2001, while the
populations of Wales and Northern Ireland are
projected to peak in around twenty-five years’ time
and then start to fall. The population of England is
still projected to be increasing in forty years’ time
but at a low rate of growth.
•
Almost 60 per cent of the projected 4.3 million
increase in the UK population between 2001 and
2026 is attributable to the assumed level of net
inward migration. The remainder is due to
projected natural increase (more births than
deaths).
•
The population will gradually become older with
the mean age projected to rise from 39.1 years in
2001 to 42.4 years in 2026.
•
By 2007, the population of pensionable age is
projected to exceed the number of children.
•
The number of people of state pensionable age is
projected to increase by over 10.5 per cent from
10.8 million in 2001 to 12.0 million in 2011.
Allowing for the change in women’s state pension
age, the population of pensionable age will rise
only slightly further (to 12.2 million) by 2021.
However, a faster increase will then resume with
longer-term projections suggesting the number
over pensionable age will peak at over 15 million
around 2040.
1. Office for National Statistics/Government Actuary’s Department
(2002). National population projections: 2000-based. ONS Series
PP2 no.23. TSO: London.
2. The Big Number. National Statistics News Release (30 September
2002).
3. Steady growth: 1.4 million increase in decade to 2001
www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=6 (February 2003).
4. Implications of the 2001 Census results: Why the Census shows
fewer men. Available from www.statistics.gov.uk/census2001/
implications.asp
5. International migration 2001 – interim estimates. National
Statistics News Release (28 November 2002).
6. Revised mid-1982 to mid-2000 population estimates are available
from the National Statistics website at
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=601
7. Available from the National Statistics website at
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=601
8. Shaw C (2002) 2000-based national population projections for the
United Kingdom and its constituent countries. Population Trends
107, pp. 5–13.
9. For further details of how this adjustment was calculated see
www.gad.gov.uk/Population/2001/migradj.htm.
10. Pensions Act 1995. Chapter 26 Part II, Section 126 and Schedule 4.
11. Shaw C (1994) Accuracy and uncertainty of national population
projections for the United Kingdom. Population Trends 77,
pp. 24–32.
12. Shaw C (2002) Variant population projections for the United
Kingdom and its constituent countries. Population Trends 109,
pp. 15–26.
13. Shaw C (2001) United Kingdom population trends in the 21st
century. Population Trends 103, pp. 37–46.
17
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
Higher qualifications,
first-birth timing, and further
childbearing in England and
Wales
Michael S. Rendall and
Steve Smallwood
Population and Demography
Division
Office for National Statistics
INTRODUCTION
This article examines how
strong the association is
between the obtaining of
higher educational
qualifications and later entry
to motherhood, and how
these are associated with
levels and pace of second and
subsequent childbearing. Data
from the ONS Longitudinal
Study are used to estimate
these associations for women
born in England and Wales
between 1954 and 1958.
Average age of entry to
motherhood is found to be
five years later for women
with higher qualifications than
for those without. Increasing
age of motherhood is always
associated with a lower
likelihood of going on to have
another child, but the decline
with age is less pronounced
for women with a higher
qualification. Moreover, for
any given age of childbearing,
mothers with a higher
qualification are more likely
than those without to have
another child, and are more
likely to do so quickly.
National Statistics
This article describes an empirical study of the associations between
women’s attainment of higher education qualifications and their
childbearing. In demographic language, it is a study of “parity
progression”. This term refers to the pace at which women begin their
childbearing, the pace at which they go on to have a second child, a
third child, etc., and the proportions of them who ever have a first child,
a second child, a third child, etc. The focuses of the present study are on
how progressions from the first birth to second and later births are
affected by the woman’s age at her first birth, and on the role of
attainment of higher qualifications in mediating this relationship. In
particular, we investigate whether, and by how much, higher-qualified
women accelerate their subsequent childbearing after a later age of entry
to motherhood. Understanding this relationship becomes increasingly
important for the understanding and prediction of fertility in the United
Kingdom as participation in higher education rises. For example, the
shaping of policy to promote better work-family compatibility, and the
prediction of its effects, may benefit from analyses of family building
that differentiate women by their educational qualifications.
The empirical starting point of our analyses is the trend of successive
cohorts of women in England and Wales born since the Second World
War to wait longer before starting a family. It is estimated that fewer
than one in four women born in 1950 were still childless by age 30,
whereas for women born in the early 1970s this figure had risen to two
in five (Figure 1). As well as later childbearing, there has been a rise in
the number of women remaining childless at the end of their
reproductive lives. While only around one in ten women born in 1950
remained childless at the end of her reproductive life, it is likely that
around one in five born in the early 1960s will remain childless.1
18
Population Trends 111
Figure 1
Proportion of women childless by age and
selected cohorts born 1940–1975
England and Wales
Proportion childless
1.0
1940
1950
1955
1960
1970
1975
Spring 2003
particularly when the first birth is relatively early. In studies
specifically for Britain, Wright et al 9 did not find any effect for
progression to third births in their study of birth histories in the 1980
Women and Employment Survey (WES). However, a study of birth
histories from the 1986–1989 General Household Survey (GHS) by Ní
Bhrolcháin10 found evidence that education had a positive effect on
progression to second, third and fourth births for any given age at
previous birth.
Economic analyses of childbearing generate hypotheses not only about
family size, but also about the pace of family formation once it begins.
The authors of another study using the 1980 WES data11, for example,
hypothesised and found that women in higher-earning occupations go
on to have a next child more quickly. This was theorised as being
consistent with time spent out of the workforce while the children are
young being more expensive for these women in terms of their
foregone earnings. This reasoning, however, is based on the timing of
childbearing being a choice outcome. Meanwhile, a woman’s biological
childbearing capacity (her fecundity) is known to decline with age.12
Thus while women who have a later first birth may have economic
incentives to go on faster to the next child, lower fecundity may reduce
this. Empirical analysis is again needed to assess the net effect of
competing socio-economic and biological forces on childbearing.
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
15
20
25
30
Age
35
40
45
Source: Latest estimates of true birth order, Birth Statistics FM1 no.30
The role of higher education is widely believed to be central to major
changes in parity progression in Britain and elsewhere. Generally,
having a higher level of education is associated with later and less
childbearing.2 Economic analyses of fertility3 discuss competing factors
at play. First, the opportunity cost of lost wages caused by time out of
the workforce when having and rearing a child is higher for those
women whose actual or potential earnings are greater. This depresses
fertility. Second, women with higher earnings have more income to
spend on children, resulting in a positive “income effect” on
childbearing. The extra income, however, may also be spent on more
money per child (“greater child quality”) and so will not necessarily
lead to more children. A third factor is that higher-educated women are
more likely to have higher-earning husbands or partners, so providing a
further positive “income effect” on childbearing. Others have suggested
that social and ideational factors play a major part in determining
fertility differentials.4 The move towards post-materialism and
individual autonomy are seen as producing low fertility levels as
traditional family values cease to be the norm. Ideational change is
strongly related to social stratification, and it is argued that higher
educated women are more likely to be in the vanguard of social change
and may therefore have lower levels of fertility than other women.
It is perhaps not surprising, therefore, that empirical studies point to a
more complex relationship between women’s education and fertility
than that shown by a generally negative correlation between education
level and completed family size. In the United States, Martin5 found
that, from the late 1970s onwards, first birth rates at ages under 30
decreased for all educational levels, but increased at ages above 30 for
women who had a four-year college degree. He also found an increase
in second birth rates for college graduates with a first birth after 30,
compared to non-college graduates, but no significant effect for third
births. Kravdal6 similarly found a positive relationship of education
with third births in Norway, and Kreyenfeld7 more recently found a
positive relationship of education with second births in Germany.
Rahim and Ram8, however, describe a more mixed set of findings for
Canada, where education is inversely associated with going on to a
third birth, but positively associated with going on to a second birth
DATA AND METHODOLOGY
The main data source used in this study is the ONS Longitudinal Study
(LS).13 The LS has linked the birth registration and census records since
1971 for a 1 per cent sample of all women in England and Wales. For
the present study, we select those women born in England in Wales in
the years 1954 to 1958, and use births to these women recorded through
the end of the calendar year 1998. This choice of birth cohorts and
calendar years allows us to estimate the 1954–58 cohort’s reproductive
lives from beginning to end. The very large sample size of the LS
presents an opportunity to estimate these reproductive lives with much
lower statistical sampling error than would be possible using a survey
data source. A total of 11,958 LS women born in England in Wales
between 1954–1958 constitute this study’s sample. Of these, 17.0 per
cent had obtained a higher qualification by their mid-30s. Higherqualified women are defined in this study as having obtained any postsecondary-school qualification, as defined and coded in the 1991
Census.14 Unfortunately, the 1991 Census question on education does
not allow for any distinction below the tertiary qualification level.
The LS data are first used to estimate annual probabilities of a first or
next birth. A logistic regression equation is used for this purpose. A
binary dependent variable is specified for a birth versus no birth in the
given year. Regressors are specified for age, education, number of
previous births (0, 1 or 2-plus) and number of years (“duration”) since
the previous birth. Single years of age are used as regressors up to age
39, and an age and age-squared specification for ages 40 through 43.
The regressors include statistically-significant interactions of education
with age, parity and duration since previous birth. It is based on these
statistically-significant differences at the regression stage that we
discuss substantive differences in the pace and levels of parity
progression between women with and without higher qualifications,
and between women differing in their ages at the birth of the previous
child. We further adjust these annual birth probabilities to match
national population statistics estimates of age- and parity-specific
fertility rates (see Box 1).
The pace and eventual levels of parity progression, from 0 to 1 birth,
from 1 to 2 births, and from 2 births onwards, are calculated from the
annual birth probabilities by life table methods (see Box 2). A separate
calculation is performed for the two education levels. A distribution of
19
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
Box one
Box two
Adjustment of annual birth probabilities to
National Population Statistics
Life table calculation of parity progression ratios
The annual birth probabilities generated from the
logistic regression on the LS data are corrected for an
overall downward bias in their levels that arises through
incomplete linkage of registered births in the dataset. 16
Our correction adjusts the annual birth probabilities
upwards to match the national population statistics
estimates of cohort-, age- and parity-specific fertility
rates (PASFRs). 17 This adjustment also has the benefit of
increasing the statistical precision of the annual
probabilities of birth over those estimated from the LS
data alone. 18 Ratios of these annual birth rates to the
predicted annual birth probabilities from the regression
(the latter summed over the two education groups
according to their sample proportions by age and parity)
were first calculated. These ratios were then applied to
the regression-predicted annual birth probabilities by
age, parity, education and duration since last birth.
The same correction factors were applied across the
two education groups and durations since last births. We
did so after first comparing annual birth probabilities in
the LS and GHS for samples of second births and third
births in the early 1980s through early 1990s, by
education and by duration. The results from these
comparisons were of similar patterns of differences
between LS and General Household Survey (GHS)
estimates (1) between women with and without higher
qualifications, and (2) between women giving birth
earlier (age 25–30) and later (age 31–37). On this basis,
we interpret the results in this paper as being unbiased
with regard to making comparisons by education and by
age at previous birth. Our LS-to-GHS comparisons did
reveal a tendency towards longer birth intervals in the
LS. Since our ratio corrections do not adjust for this, the
results are likely to underestimate to some degree the
speed of progression to the next birth, albeit equally so
for higher-qualified and non-higher-qualified women and
for earlier and later childbearers.
age at progression to the first birth is calculated for all ages from 16 to
43. For second and higher order births, calculations are made for each
age of the mother at her previous birth in the range from 25 to 36 years.
Starting at age 25 permits a comparison of parity progression between
women with and without a higher education qualification that, in the
great majority of cases, will have been attained before her first birth. This
reduces the likelihood that a negative association between education level
and second and higher parity progression is due to childbearing reducing
education rather than due to education reducing childbearing.
Our analysis extends to a highest age of 36 for the previous birth in
order to achieve an optimal balance between analysing a large fraction
of later childbearing and maintaining sufficient sample sizes of later
childbearers. As our subsequent life table analyses show, age 36
encompasses the 90th percentile of all first childbearing among higherqualified women. That is, fewer than 10 per cent of the first births to
higher-qualified women occur after age 36 (and fewer than 3 per cent of
National Statistics
20
The parity progression life table use annual
probabilities of birth derived from the logistic
regression estimation, and corrected for non-linkage
(see Box 1). The parity progression life table works
similarly to the mortality life table. Both are “singledecrement” tables. 19 The “decrement” event in the
parity progression life table, however, is a first or next
birth, while for a mortality life table it is a death. The
mortality life table’s clock begins in the year of an
individual’s own birth, while the parity progression life
table begins in the year of the woman’s previous child
being born, or in the year she attains age 16 in the
case of first childbearing. The other major difference
between the mortality and parity progression life
tables is that all individuals eventually die, but not all
women have a first or next birth. Thus the
distributions of women’s ages at next birth (the life
table d(x) function that is plotted in Figures 2 and 4)
do not sum to 1 until the proportions not progressing
to the next birth are also added in. The parity
progression table ends at age 45, where the survival
function l(45) then indicates the proportion not
progressing, and 1-l(45) indicates the proportion
progressing to the first or next birth (the “parity
progression ratio”). Age 45 is arbitrarily designated as
the end of the reproductive life. However, to “finish
off ” the reproductive lifetime in a way that permits
births after the 44 th year, we set the probability of a
birth at or after age 44 (that is, q(44)) equal to the
probability of a birth at age 43, having noted
approximately equal numbers of births at age 43 and at
age 44 and higher in period birth statistics. Finally, in
order to calculate the age distributions of women at
first or next birth (for Tables 1 to 3), the d(x) life table
function is divided by the parity progression ratio. This
ensures that the distribution is over all women who
make the progression.
the first births of non-higher-qualified women). While much of the first
childbearing of non-higher-qualified women occurs before age 25, the
25 to 36 year-old age range nevertheless allows for the 60th to 90th
percentiles of both education groups’ first childbearing to be analysed.
This proves useful for our comparisons of the likelihood of having a
one-child family according to education level, and so for the beginnings
of an overall assessment of the association between higher education
and family building after the first child.
RESULTS
All results are for the cohorts of women born between 1954 and 1958
(“the 1954–58 cohort”). Further, consistent with the calendar-year
structure of the LS data, age is measured by the year in which a given
birthday occurs (current year minus year of birth) and not by the
conventional “age at last birthday”. Thus we refer, for example, to
births occurring in a woman’s 25th year rather than at age 25.
Population Trends 111
First childbearing by education
Figure 3
Proportions of all higher-qualified or non-higher qualified women
having a first birth at each age from 16 through 43 are presented in
Figure 2. In Table 1, percentile statistics are presented for the age
distribution at first birth among those women who ever had a child.
These percentile statistics therefore exclude women who remain
childless at the end of their reproductive life. The proportions childless
are estimated at 22.5 per cent among women with a higher qualification
and 15.2 per cent among women without a higher qualification. Very
different age distributions are seen for the two groups. First births of
women without a higher qualification are much more likely to occur
earlier in their reproductive lives. One half of all mothers without a
higher qualification have their first child by their 24th year, whereas the
24th year marks only the 10th percentile of entrants to motherhood
among mothers with a higher qualification. Not until their 29th year did
half of the higher qualified mothers have their first birth, fully five
years later than those without a higher qualification.
Entry to motherhood of women with higher qualifications is not,
however, just pushed back. It is also concentrated within fewer years.
Figure 2
Proportions of women having a first birth at
given ages, by education, 1954–58
England and Wales
Spring 2003
Proportion of first births to higher qualified
mothers by age, 1954–1958 cohort
England and Wales
Proportion with higher qualification
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
15
20
25
30
35
Age attained in year
40
45
Source: Authors’ life table estimates from the LS.
Proportion
0.08
0.07
This is seen most clearly in Figure 2, where their sharp peak in first
childbearing at ages 27 and 28 is contrasted with a plateau extending
across ages 18 to 24 for women without a higher qualification. One half
of higher-qualified mothers give birth for the first time between the
cohort’s 26th and 32nd years (see the 25th and 75th percentile ages in
Table 1), as compared to the eight-year span between the 20th and 28th
years for mothers without a higher qualification. 80 per cent of higherqualified mothers give birth for the first time between the cohort’s 24th
and 36th years, as compared to the 14-year span between the 18th and
32nd years for mothers without a higher qualification.
No higher educational
qualification
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
Higher educational
qualification
0.01
0.00
15
20
25
30
35
Age attained in year
40
45
Source: Authors’ regression estimates from the ONS Longitudinal Study (LS).
Table 1
Percentile ages at first birth among those
women who ever had a child, 1954–58 cohort
England and Wales
Percentile
Age
No higher educational
qualifications
10
25
40
50
60
75
90
Percentage childless
Higher educational
qualifications
18
20
22
24
25
28
32
24
26
28
29
30
32
36
15.2%
22.5%
Source: Authors’ life table calculations from the LS
The very different age patterns of first childbearing between higherqualified and non-higher-qualified women (as seen in Figure 2) result
also in very different proportions of all the first births at a given age
that are to higher-qualified women (see Figure 3). Women without a
higher qualification constitute the majority of first-time mothers at
every age. However, the proportion of first-time mothers who had a
higher qualification in 1991 rises rapidly through women’s 20s and
early 30s. It reaches a peak at age 36, where 35.6 per cent of all firsttime mothers have a higher qualification. This compares to 5.8 per cent
and 16.3 per cent of women having a first birth respectively in their
22nd and 25th years. The proportion of higher-qualified mothers falls
somewhat through women’s late 30s and 40s. The numerical dominance
of women without a higher qualification in the 1954–58 birth cohort,
together with the more highly concentrated ages of first childbearing
among higher-qualified women, produces this result.
Second children by age when first child born and
education
In Figure 4, the proportions of mothers having a second birth in the
years immediately following the first birth are shown for first births at
age 25, 30 and 35. These are shown separately by woman’s education
level. The first point in each line shows the proportion of women
having a second birth in the same year as the first birth (‘0 years’ after
the first birth), the second point shows the proportion having a second
birth in the year immediately following the year of the first birth
(‘1 year’ after the first birth), and so on. In each graph, a peak two years
21
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Figure 4
Spring 2003
Proportions of women having a birth in the years immediately following a previous birth at age 25, 30 or 35 by
education, 1954–58
England and Wales
a. second births
Proportion
0.5
Proportion
0.20
b. third and higher order births
0.4
0.15
0.3
0.10
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.00
0.0
25
30
35
Age attained in year
40
25
45
30
35
Age attained in year
40
45
Higher educational qualifications
No higher educational qualifications
Source: Authors’ life table estimates from the LS.
others (73.6 per cent versus 59.8 per cent), and both groups see fewer
second children born within two years (respectively 51.7 per cent and
45.6 per cent). Very little second childbearing occurs more than five
calendar years after the first, irrespective of the mother’s age at the first
birth. For all three ages of first childbearing (age 25, 30 and 35) for
both education levels, fewer than 10 per cent of all second children are
born more than five calendar years after the first child.
after the previous birth is seen for women at both education levels. That
is, having a first and second child born two years apart is the modal
pattern for both higher-qualified and other mothers. The proportions of
first and second children born three years apart, though, increasingly
approaches the proportion born two years apart as age at first
childbearing increases. This coincides with a lower rate (“intensity”) of
second childbearing as age at first childbearing moves from 25 to 30
and, more markedly, from 30 to 35.
The parity progression ratios are plotted by single year of age at
previous birth, from age 25 to age 36, in Figure 5. A noticeably slower
rate of decline in parity progression with age is seen for the second
births of higher-qualified women than for other women. Not until age
31 at entry to motherhood does the proportion having a second birth fall
below 90 per cent (to 88.7 per cent). Meanwhile only 80.1 per cent of
non-higher-qualified mothers entering motherhood in their 31st year go
on to have a second child. The education differential in second
childbearing continues to widen with age. Among women having a first
child in their 36th year, 67.6 per cent with a higher qualification, versus
only 53.1 per cent without one, go on to have a second child. An
alternative perspective on this is to look at the proportions of women
that do not go on to have a second birth. That is, one may ask what
proportion of mothers give birth to an only child? These proportions
The flatter graphs for women without a higher qualification and for
women giving birth at later ages correspond both to a lower proportion
of first-time mothers going on to a second child (the “parity progression
ratio”), and to a slower arrival of the second child. These features are
given numerical representation in Table 2. Around one-half of all
second children are born within the first two calendar years after the
first. Among higher-qualified women who have a first birth at age 25,
93.0 per cent go on to have a second birth, and 60.6 per cent of these
will occur within the first two years following the year of the first
child’s birth. Among non-higher-qualified first-time mothers, 90.8 per
cent go on to have a second birth, and 53.4 per cent of these will occur
within two years. For first-time mothers aged 35, the parity progression
ratio is 13.8 percentage points higher for the higher-qualified than for
Table 2
Proportions having a second birth within two and five calendar years following the first birth, by age at first birth
and education, 1954–1958 cohort
England and Wales
No higher educational qualifications
First birth at age
Within 2 years
Within 5 years
Percentage having
a second birth
Higher educational qualifications
First birth at age
25
30
35
25
30
35
0.534
0.927
0.489
0.919
0.456
0.936
0.606
0.952
0.567
0.947
0.517
0.952
93.0
83.5
59.8
96.0
90.8
73.6
Source: Authors’ life table calculations from the LS.
National Statistics
22
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
Third and subsequent children by age when previous
child was born and education
contrast suggests that socio-economic factors are operating more
powerfully than are biological ones at least during women’s late 20s
and early 30s. If anything, we would expect women who have so far
had two or more children to be more fecund at any given age than women
who have so far had only one child. Thus a more likely interpretation is
that later childbearing (for example, age 30 versus age 25) is associated
with a woman’s being much more likely to choose to stop at a second
child, but not much more likely to stop at an only child.
In our preliminary analyses of women’s propensities to have a third
child after already having two, and to have a fourth-or-later child after
already having three or more, no statistically reliable differences were
found between the third and higher birth orders. Thus we combined
later childbearing into a single category for “third and later births”. The
results are seen first in Figure 4, where proportions by age of women
going on to have a third or later child are presented alongside, but on a
different scale from, proportions going on to have a second child. An
earlier and stronger decline in the intensity of third-and-later
childbearing with age is seen for both education levels. The contrast is
especially great between higher-qualified women going on to their
second child versus those going on to their third or later child. This
A much weaker propensity to go on to have another child after already
having two or more is also evident from the parity progression ratios
shown in Figure 5. As with going on to a second birth, having a higher
qualification is positively associated with progression to a third or
higher birth at each age of birth of the previous child. The education
differential for third and higher births, though, is smaller. Unlike for
second births, the decline is steep throughout the ages 25 to 36 for both
education groups. Thus for women without higher qualifications,
around three in five go on to a further birth from a second-or-higher
birth at age 25, but only two in five from a birth at age 30, and only one
in five from a birth at age 35 (Table 3). The same pattern of decline
with age is seen among higher-qualified women. Their parity
may be obtained simply by subtracting each of the above percentages
from 100. For example, only 11.3 per cent and 19.9 per cent of firsttime mothers in their 31st year, respectively with and without a higher
qualification, will give birth to an only child, as opposed to respectively
32.4 per cent and 46.9 per cent of first-time mothers in their 36th year.
Figure 5
Probability of progression to second birth by age at first birth and education, 1954–58 cohort
England and Wales
(a) progression to second birth
(b) progression to third or higher birth
Parity progression ratio
1.0
Parity progression ratio
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
Age at first birth
33
34
35
25
36
No higher educational qualifications
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
Age at previous birth
33
34
35
36
Higher educational qualifications
Source: Authors’ life table estimates from the LS.
Table 3
Proportions having a third or later birth within two and five calendar years following the previous births, by age at
previous birth and education, 1954–1958 cohort
England and Wales
No higher educational qualifications
Previous birth at age
Higher educational qualifications
Previous birth at age
25
30
35
25
30
35
Within 2 years
Within 5 years
0.418
0.781
0.389
0.784
0.455
0.878
0.479
0.832
0.442
0.828
0.497
0.901
Pecentage having
a next birth
58.4
37.7
19.2
61.8
43.3
24.7
Source: Authors’ life table calculations from the LS.
23
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
progression ratios fall from slightly more than three in five women at
going on from a second-or-higher birth at age 25 down to one in four
women going on from a second-or-higher birth at age 35.
The weaker propensities among all women to go on to a third or higher
birth after age 25 result also in longer spacing between these births than
between first and second births (Table 3). Fewer than half occur within
the two years immediately after the previous birth, and around one-fifth
occur more than five years later for a second or higher-order birth
occurring to a 25 or 30 year-old mother. Among the relatively few
women having a next birth following a second-or-later birth at age 35,
however, approaching half are within the next two years, and up to 90
per cent within five years. This latter result is expected from the
combination of the reduced number of remaining years available for
childbearing, and falling rates of childbearing associated with declining
fecundity through the late 30s and early 40s.
The combined effect of education on first and second
childbearing
The results described above point in two different directions with
respect to the effect of obtaining a higher education qualification. Women
who obtain a higher education qualification both delay their first birth
and accelerate their second birth in comparison to women who do not
obtain a higher qualification. We now ask what is likely to be the net
effect of these two competing tendencies. To provide a complete answer,
we would need to combine the full distribution of age at first childbearing
with the probability of second childbearing given every possible age at
first childbearing, something that the constraints on the present analyses
do not allow. However, we may derive a partial answer by comparing the
probabilities of second parity progression at given percentiles in the later
half of the distributions of first childbearing among first childbearing
women respectively with and without higher qualifications (from Table 2
and Figure 5). That is, we compare mothers who are “equally late”
entrants to motherhood relative to other mothers in their education group.
Specifically, we compare (1) higher-qualified mothers who have their
first child at an age by which 60 per cent, 75 per cent and 90 per cent of
higher-qualified mothers have already had their first child, with (2) nonhigher-qualified mothers who have their first child at an age by which 60
per cent, 75 per cent and 90 per cent of non-higher-qualified mothers
have already had their first child. These are first-time mothers at ages 30,
32 and 36 for the higher-qualified, and at ages 25, 28 and 32 for those
without higher qualifications. These comparisons target the women of
each education group who are most likely not to go on to have a second
child. As we noted above, one-child families will be more prevalent
among women beginning motherhood later. The results from these
comparisons show that stopping at only one child is substantially more
prevalent among the later half of higher-qualified mothers than it is
among the later half of other mothers. Percentages of one-child families
among all mothers are estimated respectively at 9.2 per cent, 14.0 per
cent and 32.4 per cent respectively for the 60th, 75th and 90th percentile
ages for mothers with a higher qualification, and 7.0 per cent, 11.5 per
cent and 24.0 per cent respectively for the 60th, 75th and 90th percentile
ages for mothers without a higher qualification.
We hesitate, however, to draw from these results an overall conclusion
about the relationship between education and second childbearing, as
differences in proportions of one-child families among earlier percentiles
of mothers might still offset these differences from the later percentiles.
Indeed, such an offsetting is suggested by analyses not presented here of
1954–58 cohort women aged between 39 to 44 at the 1998 and 2000
General Household Surveys. In these analyses, no clear differences by
education in the proportion of only-child families among all families
were detected. Further research is therefore needed to provide a firmer
conclusion as to the overall relationship between higher education and
having only one child versus having two or more children.
National Statistics
24
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
In the present study, we analysed the family building, child by child, of
women who were born in England and Wales in the late 1950s. This is
the group of women who have most recently completed their
reproductive lives. Dividing them into those who either did or did not
obtain a higher-education qualification allows for an assessment of the
fertility consequences of the postponing of family formation for
educational and occupational advancement. Higher education and
development of a career are widely considered to be major drivers of
later ages at childbearing. As successively greater proportions of
women attain higher qualifications, differences in eventual family sizes
between women attaining and not attaining higher qualifications may
also indicate likely forthcoming changes in family sizes in Britain. This
is, of course, assuming a lack of change in the individual and societal
circumstances that make family building more or less compatible with
women’s educational and occupational progress.
Our study’s findings first describe much later family formation among
women progressing further with their education. One half of the higherqualified women who entered motherhood did so at or after the 29th
year of their lives, while this half-way point of first childbearing was
reached in the 24th year among mothers without a higher qualification.
Attaining a higher qualification is not only associated with delayed first
childbearing, but also with a greater likelihood of remaining childless.
While the great majority of both groups of women eventually began a
family, 22.5 per cent of higher-qualified women remained childless,
versus only 15.2 per cent of non-higher-qualified women. This provides
the first indication that the increasing education of successive cohorts
may be associated with falling fertility.
Countering this, however, is our finding that at any given age of first or
subsequent birth, women with a higher qualification proceeded both
more quickly and with greater likelihood to the second or next birth.
For example, 72.8 per cent of higher-qualified women having a first
birth in their 35th year went on to have a second birth, while only 59.1
per cent of non-higher-qualified women having a first birth in their 35th
year did so. Thus as more women go on to obtain higher qualifications,
and thus as more of the families formed in women’s late 20s or 30s are
done so by higher-qualified women, the negative effects of later family
formation on second childbearing are likely to be reduced.
Our results for third and higher-order childbearing show a much weaker
tendency to proceed further in family building for women at both
education levels. Nevertheless more than one half of 25 year-old
mothers of a second or later child, whether higher-qualified or nonhigher-qualified, go on to have a further birth. So do about two-fifths of
those giving birth at age 30. Again, having a higher qualification is
always associated with having a higher likelihood of having a next
birth. The difference by education, however, is less than that for second
births.
A consistent result is thus found throughout our analyses: higher
education is associated with faster and more likely next childbearing after
age 25, for any given age at last childbearing. This result is similar to that
previously found from analysis of British data from a period around ten
years earlier. Moreover, our results indicate substantial similarity in the
education-fertility relationship between British women after age 25 and
women in the United States, Canada, Germany and Norway.
A novel feature of our study is its attempt to discern a net effect of two
opposing tendencies of the education and fertility relationship: (1) that
of pushing second and later childbearing to older ages; and (2) that of
accelerating the second and later childbearing from any given age at
first childbearing. We explored the net effect with respect to having
only one child versus having two-or-more children, among women
Population Trends 111
becoming mothers at an age that is later than the average for their
education level. We found here that the effect of higher qualifications
on delaying entry to motherhood dominated the opposing effect of its
accelerating second childbearing. That is, those higher-qualified women
who became mothers later than average among all higher-qualified
mothers were less likely to have a second child than were the later half
of mothers without a higher qualification. Also pointing in the direction
of later entry to motherhood among higher qualified women being
associated with less childbearing is the evidence we presented for third
and higher childbearing. Here we found both a smaller differential by
education in third and higher childbearing than for second childbearing,
and an earlier and more pronounced decline of third and later
childbearing with mother’s age.
Descriptive analyses of the nature of those presented here, however, do
not allow us to draw strong conclusions about higher education as
having a causal effect on parity progression. Indeed it has been argued
by Kravdal15 in a study of Norwegian third births, and by Kreyenfeld in
a study of German second births, that such a causal interpretation is not
warranted. Instead, they argue, the positive correlation between
education and third and second birth rates can be explained by highereducated mothers being more likely to have other characteristics that
are associated with higher fertility. One such characteristic is their
husband or partner’s education. Unless the associations between the
education levels of mothers and these other characteristics change over
time, though, the observed differences in fertility between women of
different educational levels will persist, and this known relationship
could therefore be useful in making assumptions about future trends in
age- and education-specific fertility.
Key findings
●
●
●
●
●
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors are grateful for comments from David Coleman and
Heather Joshi on an earlier version of this article, and from participants
at British Society for Population Studies and Quality Issues in Social
Surveys seminar presentations. The authors are also grateful to the
Nuffield Foundation for the funding of the project “Teenage
Motherhood and Social Polarisation in Britain and France” under which
the LS data were extracted, and to Kevin Lynch for preparing this
extract.
REFERENCES
1. Smallwood S. (2002) New estimates of trends in births by birth
order in England and Wales. Population Trends 108, pp. 32–48.
2. Rindfuss RR, Morgan SP and Offutt K (1996). Education and the
changing age pattern of American fertility: 1963–1989.
Demography 33, pp.277–290.
3. For example, see Becker G (1991). A Treatise on the Family (2nd
ed.). Harvard University Press: Cambridge.
4. Lesthaeghe R and Surkyn J (1998). Cultural dynamics and
economic theories of fertility change. Population and Development
Review 14, pp. 1–45.
5. Martin SP. Diverging fertility amongst U.S. women who delay
childbearing past age 30. (2000). Demography 37, pp. 523–533.
6. Kravdal Ø. The emergence of a positive relation between education
and third birth rates in Norway with supportive evidence from the
United States. Population Studies 46, pp. 459–475.
7. Kreyenfeld M (2002). Time-squeeze, partner effect or selfselection? An investigation into the positive effect of women’s
education on second birth risks in West Germany. Demographic
Research vol. 7 article 2. www.demographic-research.org.uk.
8. Rahim A and Ram B (1993). Emerging patterns of child-spacing in
Canada. Journal of Biosocial Science 25, pp. 155–167.
Spring 2003
●
Among women born in England and Wales
between 1954 and 1958, those who obtained a
higher-education qualification began motherhood
on average five years later than did women who
did not obtain a higher qualification.
The proportion of first-time mothers who have a
higher qualification is much higher at later ages.
For example, one third of those women who
became mothers for the first time in their mid30s had a higher qualification, compared to one
sixth of first-time mothers in their mid-20s.
For any given age at first becoming a mother, having
a higher qualification was associated with the faster
and more likely arrival of a second child.
For women either with or without higher
qualifications, later age at entry to motherhood
was associated with the slower and later arrival of
a second child. Nevertheless, the proportions
having a second child among those women who
became mothers initially in their 30th year were
still very high: 90.8 per cent among those with a
higher qualification and 83.5 per cent among those
without. These percentages fall, however, to 73.6
per cent and 59.8 per cent respectively for higherqualified and other first-time mothers at 35.
Third and later childbearing was also faster and
more likely for higher-qualified women than for
non-higher-qualified women at any given age. The
differential by education, however, was smaller
than for second childbearing. Moreover, a faster
decline in the proportions having a next birth
with increasing age at previous birth was seen
for third and later births than for second births.
We compared proportions of mothers having just
one child, between “equally late” higher-qualified
and non-higher-qualified first-time mothers: those
who became mothers at ages before which 60 per
cent, 75 per cent and 90 per cent of eventual
mothers in their same educational group had
already become mothers. The results of this
comparison were that higher-qualified later
mothers were substantially more likely to have
just one child than were non-higher-qualified later
mothers. For example, one third of the 90th
percentile age of higher-qualified mothers (36
year-old first-time mothers) had only one child,
while only one quarter of the 90th percentile age
of non-higher-qualified mothers (32 year-old firsttime mothers) had only one child.
9. Wright RE, Ermisch JF, Hinde PRA and Joshi HE (1988). The third
Birth in Great Britain. Journal of Biosocial Science 20, pp. 489–496.
10 Ní Bhrolcháin M (1993). Recent fertility differentials in Britain. In
Office of Population Censuses and Surveys New perspectives on
fertility in Britain Studies in medical and population subjects no.55
HMSO: London.
11. Cigno A and Ermisch J (1989). A microeconomic analysis of the
timing of births. European Economic Review 33, pp. 737–760.
12. Menken J (1985). Age and fertility: How late can you wait?
Demography 22, pp. 469–483.
25
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Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
13. Hattersley L and Creeser R (1995). Office of Population Censuses
and Surveys Longitudinal Study 1971-1991: History, organisation
and quality of data Series LS no.7. HMSO: London.
14. See Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (1993) 1991
Census: Qualified Manpower, Great Britain volume 1, pp. 2–3.
15. Kravdal Ø (2001). The high fertility of college educated women in
Norway: An artefact of the separate modelling of each parity
transition. Demographic Research vol.5 article 6.
www.demographic-research.org.uk.
16. See Werner B (1984). Fertility and family background: from the
OPCS Longitudinal Study. Population Trends 35, pp. 5–10 and
Babb P and Hattersley L (1992) An examination of the quality of LS
data for fertility analysis LS User Guide 10. OPCS: London.
17. See note 1 above.
18. Handcock MS, Huovilainen S and Rendall MS (2000). Combining
registration-system and survey data to estimate birth probabilities.
Demography 37, pp. 187–192.
19. Chiang CL (1984). The life table and its applications. Krieger:
Malabar, Florida.
National Statistics
26
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
How important are intergenerational cycles of
teenage motherhood in
England and Wales? A
comparison with France
Michael S. Rendall
Population and Demography
Division
Office for National Statistics
INTRODUCTION
Teenage fertility has fallen
substantially in every Western
European country except the
United Kingdom. This article
examines the hypothesis that
repetition of teenage motherhood
from mother to daughter is a
major cause of the UK being the
exception. A simple demographic
model of fertility across
generations is estimated with
comparable data from England
and Wales and France. The main
finding is that mother-daughter
repetition can account for only a
minor part of the total difference
in teenage childbearing between
the two countries, especially over
the long term. The higher teenage
childbearing in England and Wales
of those whose mothers began
childbearing after their teenage
years dominates.
The rates of teenage fertility in Britain stand well above those of other
Western European countries.1 The trends, causes and consequences of
teenage childbearing in Britain have been the subject of many studies2
and much policy concern.3 A frequently-expressed concern in countries
with persistently high rates of teenage childbearing is that the
phenomenon is self-perpetuating.4,5 That is, the daughters of teenage
mothers become teenage mothers themselves, and the “cycle” thus
continues from generation to generation. The present study investigates
the quantitative importance of such cycles for Britain’s teenage
childbearing. It does so by evaluating the demographic plausibility of
the inter-generational cycle hypothesis to explain differences in teenage
childbearing between France and Britain, as represented by England
and Wales (here treated as one country).
Comparison of England and Wales with France is of particular value
firstly because of their marked divergence since the 1970s in prevalence
of teenage childbearing, having followed parallel upward paths in
teenage childbearing in the 1960s and early 1970s. From the late 1970s
through the 1990s, sharply falling teenage childbearing in France has
contrasted with persistently high teenage childbearing in Britain.
Drawing a contrast between Britain and France may also have a wider
generality due to the two countries’ representing two international sets
of patterns (see Figure 1). France’s path of decline in teenage
childbearing since the 1970s has proved to be the typical pattern of
Western Europe, whereas the British pattern has been the exception. 6
Britain’s path has been similar, however, to the low- and mediumfertility countries of the English-speaking New World: United States,
New Zealand, Australia and Canada.7 These countries, too, have seen
levels of teenage childbearing persisting at rates well above those of
continental Western Europe. The big question then is, why did England
27
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
and Wales follow the Anglo-New-World pattern and not that of the rest
of Western Europe?
Many explanations have been offered for the high levels of teenage
childbearing in the English-speaking countries. These include their
higher income inequality, the orientation of their welfare states towards
providing for poor and unmarried mothers while adopting a largely
laissez-faire approach towards other parents, and the ambivalence in
their social attitudes towards contraception, sex education and mass
communication about sexuality.8,9,10 The inter-generational cycle
hypothesis gives a particular form of demographic impetus to such
explanations. It implies that teenage motherhood becomes a selfperpetuating cycle once begun, repeating itself from one generation to
the next. Not only are daughters of teenage mothers more likely to
themselves start childbearing while teenagers, and so contribute more
teenage mothers in the next generation. A combination of earlier and
more lifetime childbearing among teenage mothers also implies that
children of teenage mothers will be disproportionately more numerous
among the next generation of fertility-exposed teenagers.
To date, though, no study has investigated whether such intergenerational cycle effects could be powerful enough to explain much of
the very large differences in levels of teenage childbearing between the
English-speaking countries and those in continental Western Europe. It
is as a first step in this direction that the present study investigates the
demographic plausibility of the inter-generational cycle hypothesis to
explain the diverging paths of France and England and Wales. It does so
first by analysing the various demographic components required for an
explanation based on the inter-generational cycle hypothesis, and
second by simulating teenage and non-teenage childbearing across
several generations under different combinations of the French and
British values of the demographic components.
The study’s outline is as follows. Firstly, the historical time series from
1951 to 2000 of all births and of the number and proportions that are to
teenage mothers are compared between France and England and Wales.
This comparison shows that the periods of high numbers of births
(“baby booms”) in England and Wales and in France in the 1960s
provided the demographic conditions for an “echo-boom” of teenage
childbearing in the 1980s. The proportions of all births that were to
teenage mothers were also high in the 1960s and early 1970s in both
countries. The twin phenomena of large numbers of births and large
proportions born to teenage mothers thus provide part of the conditions
for an inter-generational teenage childbearing “echo” in the 1980s and
early 1990s in both countries.
Secondly, the teenage childbearing of women born to teenage mothers
versus to mothers aged 20 and over is compared between the two
countries. A strong correlation between mother’s and daughter’s
teenage childbearing is found in both France and England and Wales.
This provides a further component needed for an “echo boom” of intergenerational teenage childbearing. The analysis also, however, shows
levels of teenage childbearing in England and Wales that are much
higher than in France both for daughters of teenage mothers and for
daughters of mothers in their 20s and above.
Thirdly, a population model of teenage and non-teenage childbearing is
constructed. This model is estimated using a plausible background
demographic structure that allows for teenage mothers to have
approximately three children, versus the two children of other women,
and for teenage childbearing to occur on average nine years earlier than
non-teenage childbearing (at age 18 compared to age 27). These
background parameters are estimated from data on the French 1950s
birth cohorts of teenage and non-teenage mothers. The model is run
first for France, and then with successive substitutions of teenage
National Statistics
28
Figure 1
Mean number of children born during teenage
years in selected countries
Births per 1,000 women
400
1970
1980
1990
2001
300
200
100
0
USA
Austria
England
and Wales
France
Denmark
Italy
Sources: Observatoire Démographique Européen, Office for National Statistics.
Notes: 1. For USA, France and Italy, data for the year 2000 are used in place of data for
2001.
2. The figures are calculated as the sum of single-year age-specific fertility rates
below age 20 (defining age by age at last birthday)
childbearing parameters of England and Wales. These parameters are
first the historical birth trends, second the teenage fertility of daughters
of teenage mothers only, and third the teenage fertility of daughters of
other mothers. The resulting modelled patterns of teenage and nonteenage childbearing are projected over a period stretching from the late
1980s through 2040 to fully capture the nature of inter-generational
dynamics.
The primary objective of the simulations is to answer two competing
questions:
(1) Could France’s teenage childbearing have persisted as in
England and Wales had France’s daughters of teenage mothers
followed the same pattern of teenage childbearing as in
England and Wales?
(2) Could France’s teenage childbearing have persisted as in
England and Wales only if France’s other daughters (those not
born to a teenage mother) had also followed the same pattern
of teenage childbearing as in England and Wales?
The simulation also provides some insight into the effects of greater
historical swings in England and Wales in numbers of teenage and total
births and in proportions born to teenage mothers. The results of the
simulations show all three factors (the teenage childbearing of those
born to a teenage mother, the teenage childbearing of those born to a
non-teenage mother, and the greater birth swings in England and Wales)
have some influence on the divergent paths of teenage childbearing
between the two countries. The most important factor, however, is the
higher teenage childbearing in England and Wales of those not born
themselves to a teenage mother.
Population Trends 111
Figure 2
Spring 2003
Proportions of births to a teenage mother
Per cent
12
England and Wales, unadjusted
10
8
England and Wales, adjusted
France
6
4
2
0
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
Year
1981
1986
1991
1996
2000
Sources: INSEE, ONS, author’s calculations.
Note: The “adjusted” series uses the French definition of age (age attained in the calender year)
TEENAGE AND TOTAL CHILDBEARING IN BRITAIN AND
FRANCE OVER THE PAST 50 YEARS
This part of the analysis compares national birth registration data for
France and England and Wales.11,12 Figure 2 displays the annual
proportions of births to teenage mothers in France and in England and
Wales over the second half of the 20th century. Because Britain and
France use different definitions of age, also plotted is a series that
adjusts the England and Wales proportions to match the definition of
age used in France. Using a common definition of age has previously
been shown to be very important for accurate cross-country
comparisons of teenage fertility.13 While British demographers use age
at last birthday (‘completed years’), French demographers use age
attained in the current calendar year. The French definition of age is
used throughout this study. The effect is to reduce the levels of teenage
childbearing in Britain compared with the official published series.
Under the French definition, births to 19 year olds refer to those women
who give birth in the year of their 19th birthday. The effect is to
reclassify out of “teenage motherhood” just over half of births to
women who have past their 19th birthday but not yet their 20th (that is,
19 year-old mothers according to the British definition).
Both countries saw a similar pattern of increase in the proportion of
births to teenage mothers from the 1950s through the early 1970s. The
increase was greater, however, in England and Wales, peaking at 8.71
per cent of all births in 1972. In France, a peak of 7.18 per cent of all
births was observed in 1974. The patterns of decline after the
respective peaks differed greatly. In France the proportion fell to a
trough as low as 1.77 per cent in 1995, compared to a much higher
trough of 5.05 per cent in England and Wales in 1994. By 2000, the
French proportion had recovered slightly, such that births to teenage
mothers represented 2.02 per cent of all births. In England and Wales,
women who were teenage mothers under the French definition
represented 6.06 per cent of all births in 2000, exactly three times as
high as in France. This percentage translates to 7.58 per cent of all
births in England and Wales being to mothers who have yet to reach
their 20th birthday (the conventional definition of a teenage mother
used on the English side of the Channel).
The historical series of numbers of teenage births in the two countries are
shown in Figure 3. These show a somewhat earlier, and also stronger
growth in teenage childbearing in England and Wales than in France. The
peak level was sustained slightly longer in France, where the number of
births to teenage mothers peaked in 1973 at 60,453 births. This was
almost exactly coincident with its peak proportion of births to teenage
mothers, observed in 1974. In England and Wales, the peak number of
births to teenage mothers occurred in 1966, at 69,348 births (again using
the French definition). By 1972 in England and Wales, when the
proportion of births to teenage mothers reached its peak, the number was
already down to 63,225 and about to fall rapidly. By 1977, the number
was 43,551, slightly below the 46,145 births to teenage mothers in France
that year. From this point onwards, the decline stalled in England and
Wales, with the number of births to teenage mothers fluctuating around
45,000 through until the end of the 1980s. Meanwhile, in France, the
number of births to teenage mothers continued to decline sharply, so that
by the end of the 1980s the number was less than half its 1977 value.
The rises and falls in teenage births need to be understood also in the
context of overall fertility trends (see Figure 4). Both countries
experienced historically high annual numbers of births in the 1960s
(“baby booms”). However, the 1960s births in England and Wales stand
far above the annual numbers of births either before or after that decade.
In France, the 1960s stand out much less. The much greater increase in
numbers of birth from the 1950s to the 1960s in England and Wales
compared to France simultaneously provided especially large absolute
and relative numbers of teenagers at risk of childbearing in the 1980s in
England and Wales. There was then a much stronger “baby bust” in
England and Wales in the 1970s than in France. This will have resulted in
a bigger fall in numbers of teenagers in the late 1980s and 1990s in
England and Wales than in France, and so a downward impact on
numbers of births to teenage mothers. Further, the 1970s baby bust in
England and Wales will have increased the ratio of women in their 20s to
those in their teens in the late 1980s and 1990s, pushing down even more
the proportion of births to teenage mothers. France’s smoother pattern of
rises from the 1950s and falls into the 1970s, on the other hand, will have
led to a more even balance between numbers of teenage women and
women in their 20s and 30s in the 1980s and 1990s.
29
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Figure 3
Spring 2003
Number of births to teenage mothers
Teenage births
100
90
80
Thousands
70
60
England and Wales, unadjusted
50
40
England and Wales, adjusted
30
20
France
10
0
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
Year
1981
1986
1991
1996
2000
Sources: INSEE, ONS, author’s calculations.
Note: The “adjusted” series uses the French definition of age (age attained in the calender year)
Figure 4
Total number of births
Total births
1,000
Thousands
900
800
France
700
England and Wales
600
500
1951
1956
1961
1966
Sources: INSEE, ONS
National Statistics
30
1971
1976
Year
1981
1986
1991
1996
2000
Population Trends 111
The most important feature of this analysis of historical trends, however,
is the coincidence in both countries of historically high numbers and
proportions of births to teenage mothers in the 1960s and early 1970s.
Both countries could thus be described as having been ripe for an “echoboom” of teenage childbearing to the daughters of the teenage mothers of
the 1960s and early-1970s. For this to have occurred, though, the bulge in
daughters of teenage mothers reaching their teens in the 1980s and early
1990s would need to have been combined with strong inter-generational
correlations of teenage childbearing.
INTER-GENERATIONAL CORRELATIONS OF TEENAGE
CHILDBEARING
Data and methods used to estimate the teenage motherhood of
daughters of teenage and other mothers, in France and Britain, are
described in Boxes one and two. Results are presented in Table 1. The
likelihood of having a teenage birth in Britain is consistently 2 to 2.5
times higher for a daughter of a teenage mother. This holds whether the
definition of a teenage mother based on age at first childbearing (as in
the DiSalvo and Rosato studies described in Box two) or at the birth of
the current daughter (as in the present study) is used. Significantly, this
ratio of 2 to 2.5 times higher for a daughter of a teenage mother holds
also for France. The levels of teenage childbearing in Britain are such
that 26.1 per cent of daughters born to a teenage mother will themselves
become a teenage mother. As many as 10.9 per cent of daughters born
to a non-teenage mother will also become a teenage mother, however.
This is higher than the percentage of teenage mothers among French
daughters of teenage mothers (7.9 per cent). Only 3.7 per cent of
daughters of non-teenage mothers in France have a child as a teenager.
While the inter-generational teenage childbearing correlation is much
higher in England and Wales in France more than three-quarters of
daughters born to a teenage mother will not themselves become a
teenage mother. In this sense, the inter-generational teenage fertility
rates indicate a very weak degree of repetition from mother to daughter.
Also noteworthy is that in France, rates for both daughters of teenage
and other mothers are only one third as high as those in England and
Wales. Further, daughters of non-teenage mothers in England and
Wales are more likely to become teenage mothers than are daughters of
teenage mothers in France.
The present study’s LS results before adjusting for non-linkage are
compared to those of the two previous studies cited above that use the
LS. The results of the present study are seen to be very close to both
those studies, despite the different time periods and definitions of
being born to a teenage mother. The 1956–61 cohorts of Rosato’s
study saw mean numbers of teenage children born to a teenage mother
that are very close to the 1972–78 cohorts of the present study, while
those for the 1966–71 cohort are somewhat lower. The 1956–65
cohorts of DiSalvo’s study saw proportions becoming teenage
mothers among daughters of teenage and non-teenage mothers that
are very similar to the proportions estimated for the present study’s
1972–80 birth cohorts. These results suggest there has been little
change in the strength of the inter-generational correlations over the
last two decades in England and Wales.
The large sample sizes of daughters of teenage mothers in both the LS
and EDP are methodologically noteworthy. In the EDP sample, 997 of
the 1969 to 1975 French-born female cohorts present in the 1982 and
1990 Censuses were born to a teenage mother (that is, a teenager at the
time of the EDP member’s birth). While 352 of the 1969 to 1975
cohorts became teenage mothers (that is, had any births as a teenager),
only 56 of those were daughters of the 997 who were born to teenage
mothers. Clearly then, a large dataset is required to obtain sufficient
observations of such a demographically rare phenomenon as
Spring 2003
Box one
THE ENGLAND AND WALES LS AND FRENCH EDP
DATA SOURCES
The data source used to estimate the inter-generational
teenage childbearing correlations for England and Wales
is the ONS Longitudinal Study 14 (LS). In France, it is the
French Demographic Panel, or EDP (Echantillon
Démographique Permanent). 15 The structure and
content of these two datasets are very similar. Both
link women’s birth registrations, including of their own
birth, and link them also to their Census records. In the
files used for the present study, births to EDP members
in the years 1968 to 1995 have been linked to their
1968, 1975, 1982, and 1990 Census records, and to
their own birth record if after 1968. In the LS, 1971 to
1998 years of births are linked to LS members’ 1971,
1981, and 1991 Census records, and to their own birth
record if after 1971. The EDP consistently links births
for only half of their EDP sample, resulting in a 1 in 200
sample that may be used in fertility analyses. The LS
links births for all LS female sample members, resulting
in a 1 in 100 sample.
The large number of observations in the LS and EDP
greatly facilitates the study of childbearing among small
subpopulations such as the daughters of teenage
mothers. The long-running, panel nature of the data,
moreover, permits the identification of intergenerational fertility. The LS and the EDP are especially
useful for comparative research due to the similar
length of time for which their data are compiled, and to
the similarities of the two countries’ populations and
their socioeconomic conditions. Previous studies have
demonstrated their value in comparing migration 16,
households 17 and fertility. 18
inter-generational teenage motherhood. Of the LS sample, 1,543 were
born to a teenage mother. As many as 1,889 of the LS sample
themselves became teenage mothers, 332 of them had teenage mothers.
These higher numbers in the LS reflect both the persistently high levels
of teenage childbearing across British birth cohort and that,
procedurally, approximately twice as many LS females as EDP females
have their birth records linked to their census records.
A MOTHER-TO-DAUGHTER MODEL
The inter-generational teenage childbearing correlations alone do not
tell us whether inter-generational teenage fertility is of major
importance for overall levels of teenage childbearing. To evaluate this,
a model that incorporates the teenage childbearing of both daughters of
teenage mothers and of daughters of older mothers is necessary. This is
especially important given that, even in a population like England and
Wales where teenage fertility is high, far more women are born to nonteenage mothers than are born to teenage mothers.
For the model to adequately represent other demographic features of
teenage motherhood, it is also necessary to take into account the faster
reproduction that occurs when teenage childbearing in one generation is
followed by teenage childbearing in the next, and for the higher
completed fertility observed for teenage mothers than for women who
begin childbearing later (or not at all). With these considerations in
31
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
Table 1
Box two
LS AND EDP SAMPLES, DEFINITIONS AND
ADJUSTMENT FOR NON-LINKAGE
To estimate the intergenerational teenage fertility
correlations, the present study uses 18,884 LS females
born between 1972 and 1978, and compares them to
12,568 EDP members born between 1969 and 1975.
Criteria for inclusion in the sample are that they are born
in the country, and were present in the 1980s and 1990s
Censuses (1981 and 1991 for Britain and 1982 and 1990
for France). Neither the LS nor EDP data, however, can be
used accurately without dealing with the problem of
incomplete linkage of births. An investigation of the quality
of the LS fertility data conducted by Babb and Hattersley,19
following an earlier study by Werner, 20 found a linkage rate
of between 83 per cent and 88 per cent in the 1981 to
1988 period. Analyses conducted for this study indicate
that this linkage rate has been similar in the 1990s.
Analyses of the EDP’s overall success in linking birth
records conducted by the author for the present study
found similar overall rates of non-linkage to those in the
LS. The age pattern of omission is different in the EDP,
however, with greater rates of omission at younger ages,
and especially the teens. Thus it is important to apply
appropriate corrections differentially across the two
countries to account for these differences in non-linkage.
This is done here assuming no interaction between
undercount and mother’s teenage versus non-teenage age
at the daughter’s birth.
In defining “born to a teenage mother”, the birth record of
the LS or EDP member herself is used. This identifies
whether the mother was a teenage mother at the LS or
EDP member’s own birth. This contrasts with definitions
used by previous LS studies, which include also daughters
of non-teenage mothers who started childbearing as
teenagers. 21,22 DiSalvo examined the teenage fertility of LS
females born in the years 1956 to 1965. Rosato examined
the teenage fertility of the 1956 to 1961 and 1966 to 1971
LS birth cohorts. To infer whether the mother began her
childbearing as a teenager, DiSalvo used 1971 marital
fertility histories, while Rosato used the oldest child
present in the 1971 and 1981 Censuses. These methods
are not easily applied to the EDP data, due to the lack of
family and household information available in the EDP
from the 1968 Census. Thus the definition based on
mother’s age at the LS or EDP member’s own birth is used
to achieve comparability between the two countries. The
more inclusive, “ever-teenage-mother” definition of
DiSalvo and Rosato, however, is used in the simulation
model, as is explained in that section.
mind, a simple model of inter-generational teenage and non-teenage
fertility that takes into account each of these factors is specified. The
model is designed to allow for three paths of influence of intergenerational teenage fertility on overall teenage fertility. The first
(‘repetition’) effect is through a higher probability of teenage
childbearing among daughters born to ever-teen-mothers than among
daughters born to never-teen-mothers. The second (‘timing’) effect is
through a faster inter-generational rate of reproduction among teenage
childbearers. The third (‘quantity’) effect is through a greater number of
children born to ever-teenage mothers.
National Statistics
32
Teenage fertility rates of daughters of teenage
and non-teenage mothers in England and Wales
and France
A. Mean number of teenage births per woman
England and Wales (LS)
France (EDP)
Rosato
study’s
1956–61
cohorts
Rosato
study’s
1966–71
cohorts
present
study’s
1972–80
cohorts
nonlinkageadjusted
1972-80
cohorts
present
study’s
1969–76
cohorts
nonlinkageadjusted
1969–76
cohorts
Cohort members with
a teenage mother
0.244
0.217
0.252
0.261
0.054
0.088
Cohort members with
a non-teenage mother
0.120
0.096
0.101
0.109
0.024
0.039
B. Percentage of women giving birth before age 20
Britain (LS)
Cohort members with a
teenage mother (Sample size)
Cohort members with a
non-teenage mother (Sample size)
Sources:
France (EDP)
nonlinkageadjusted
1972–80
cohorts
present
study’s
1969–76
cohorts
nonlinkageadjusted
1969–76
cohorts
DiSalvo
study’s
1956–65
cohorts
present
study’s
1972–80
cohorts
20.4
(5,896)
21.5
(1,543)
23.8
5.0
(1,119)
7.9
10.0
(33,554)
9.0
(17,341)
9.9
2.0
(13,146)
3.7
Rosato, M. (1999) and DiSalvo’s, P.M. (1992) (see citations in footnotes 21 and 22);
Author’s calculations from the EDP and from LS tabulations provided by the LS Support
Group.
Notes: 1 Age is defined as age attained in the year in the present study, while it is
defined in completed years in Rosato’s and DiSalvo’s studies. Whether mother
was a teen mother is defined according to mother’s age at LS or EDP daughter’s
birth in the present study, but according to mother’s age at presumed first
childbearing in Rosato’s and DiSalvo’s studies.
2. Mean number of teenage births was calculated by multiplying Rosato’s annual
teen birth rates by five (the number of years of exposure between ages 15 and
19). For the present study, it was calculated from real cohort experience.
The modelling of the repetition effect takes advantage of the parameters
estimated from the EDP and LS data as described in the previous
section. The model, however, employs the less strict definition of intergenerational teenage motherhood to allow daughters of ever-teenagemothers to become teenage mothers at higher rates than never-teenage
mothers, even for daughters born while the mother was no longer in her
teens. These daughters of ever-teenage-mothers are modelled to become
teenage mothers at the rates of daughters born to mother who was a
teenager at the time of this daughter’s birth. This allows for the
estimation of an upper bound of the influence of repetition of teenage
childbearing on overall teenage childbearing.
The timing and quantity effects of teenage childbearing in the model,
on the other hand, are given more of a background role. That role is
simply to allow for the effects of the large difference Britain’s and
France’s between ‘repetition’ rates to play out in overall teenage and
non-teenage childbearing. To incorporate timing differences into the
model, the average ages of teenage and non-teenage childbearing are
set to 18 and 27 respectively. These are approximately the French
averages over the 1978 to 1995 period. From a modelling perspective,
their being multiples of nine conveniently allows for a nine-year
projection interval. Births in nine-year period t are projected by
Population Trends 111
applying the teenage fertility rates to births in period t-2, and the nonteenage fertility rates to births in period t-3.
The non-teenage childbearing of teenage childbearers in period t is
projected by applying to the teenage mothers of period t-1 the constant
mean number of children in a teenage mother’s non-teenage years. The
assumptions for this component are clearly approximate only. The mean
number estimated from French data is used equally for France and for
England and Wales. Further, the average age of non-teenage fertility
does not vary in the model according to whether the woman began
childbearing as a teenage mother, whereas it is likely that ever-teenage
mothers would also have lower average ages of non-teenage fertility.
Thus the timing effect of inter-generational teenage fertility will be
somewhat understated in the model. The largest reproductive age
difference, however, will clearly be that between age at the teenage
childbearing of ever-teenage mothers and age of (non-teenage)
childbearing of never-teenage mothers. This difference is captured.
With respect to ‘quantity’ effects of inter-generational teenage
childbearing, the model incorporates the mean numbers of teenage
births of a teenage mother respectively in Britain and France, and the
mean numbers of non-teenage births respectively of ever-teenagemothers and of never-teenage-mothers (including those who remain
childless) in France. These are estimated from the mean numbers of
children born between ages 20 and 39 (the presumed oldest age of
childbearing) among the EDP sample of women who were under 20 in
1969 to 1975. Thus these women are from the earlier, 1950s birth
cohorts. Results are again adjusted for estimated non-linkage of births
in the EDP. Among women who respectively were and were not born to
a teenage mother, 1.866 and 2.054 non-teenage births are thereby
estimated. Since the average number of teenage births to an ever-teenmother in France is estimated at 1.097, an ever-teen-mother will have a
mean lifetime total of 2.963 births, or almost one lifetime birth in
excess of that of a never-teen-mother (2.054).
These lifetime mean numbers of children may be weighted by the
proportions born respectively to a teenage mother and to an older
mother among the 1950s cohorts in the two countries. This produces an
aggregated 2.074 children per woman in France and 2.088 children per
woman in England and Wales, the small difference being generated by
the slightly larger percentage of teenage births in the 1950s in England
and Wales. These are reasonably comparable to the estimates of
completed fertility for the 1950s cohorts in the two countries. These
were 2.13 children per woman in France and 2.02 in England and
Wales.23 Further, the mean ages of childbearing of the 1950s cohorts in
the two countries were close to the age 27 that the projection model
assumes for the more than 90 per cent of children born in each country
to a non-teenage mother. Subsequent cohorts in both countries, and
especially in England and Wales, have seen trends towards later and
fewer children. Because of these differences between the fertility
parameters assumed for the projection model and the true fertility
parameters, and because of the very simplified structure of the
simulation model itself, none of the results of the projections can be
interpreted as forecasts. Instead their value is in their interpretation as
simulations that capture the main dynamics of teenage and non-teenage
fertility from generation to generation, and of how those dynamics are
influenced by differences in the teenage fertility of women respectively
born to teenage mothers and non-teenage mothers.
Inter-generational childbearing is simulated over a period of 54 years,
from 1987 to 2040. The period of 1951 to 1986, divided into four nineyear subperiods, is used to establish the simulation model’s initial
conditions. These are mothers’ teenage and non-teenage childbearing
statuses in France or in England and Wales. Non-teenage births to
ever-teenage-mothers are estimated by applying to the teenage births of
Spring 2003
each subperiod the ratio of non-teenage births to teenage births
estimated from the French 1950s cohorts as described above. Projection
over subsequent generations of women is then performed from the
1960–68, and 1969–77 and 1978–86 base populations for six nine-year
subperiods from 1987–95 through to 2032–40.
The model is ‘single-sex’ in that no effect of bearing sons as a teenager
is allowed for. Only daughters are considered. This has no direct
distorting effect on the teenage proportion of all fertility, however, as
only daughters are considered also among non-teenage births. Finally,
the model takes no account of socioeconomic correlates of teenage and
non-teenage fertility. While these will clearly play a strong role in
influencing the teenage and non-teenage fertility parameters used in the
model, just how they do so is beyond the scope of the present study.
Simulation results to 1987–1995 and to 1996–2004
The first set of simulation results are presented in Figure 5 simulations I
and II. Here the purpose is to evaluate the role of the differences in
historical birth trends between the two countries. These are primarily
the historically-higher proportions of teenage mothers in England and
Wales than in France, and the larger swings in birth numbers around the
peak 1960s decade of childbearing in England and Wales.
The simulation model is first seen to reproduce reasonably well the
observed proportions of births to teenage mothers in France
(simulation I). The 2.18 per cent and 2.16 per cent projected
proportions born to a teenage mother are approximately comparable to
the 2.32 per cent and 2.03 per cent observed teenage births of Figure
2 (using the mid-period year 2000 to approximate the 1996–2004
period). The majority of teenage mothers are the daughters of women
who were not themselves teenage mothers: 1.53 per cent both in the
2.18 per cent of 1987–95 and 2.16 per cent of 1996–2004. Those
teenage mothers who were born to a mother in her teens make up only
0.27 per cent and 0.16 per cent of all births in the respective periods.
Adding those teenage mothers born to a mother who began
childbearing as a teenager gives an extra 0.39 per cent and 0.47 per
cent of daughters of teenage mothers who may be counted among all
teenage mothers in 1987–95 and 1996–2004.
Substituting the French base population with that of England and Wales
(simulation II) results in the daughters of teenage mothers accounting
for a higher proportion of all teenage mothers. This is due to the higher
proportions of teenage mothers among all mothers in the 1960s, 1970s
and 1980s base populations in England and Wales. Daughters of
teenage mothers in 1987–95 and 1996–2004, however, still only
account for 0.28 per cent and 0.27 per cent of all births in those
respective periods on the strict definition (of having been born to a
mother in her teens), and add only an extra 0.49 per cent and 0.58 per
cent of daughters of teenage mothers when those teenage mothers born
to a mother who began childbearing as a teenager are also included.
The effect on the overall percentage of teenage mothers of substituting
in the England and Wales base populations, however, is small and of
different magnitude from one period to the next. For 1987–95, it results
in a smaller overall percentage of teenage mothers (only 1.99 per cent
of all births) than that produced when using the French base population
(2.18 per cent of all births). This is due to the sharper decline in total
births in the 1970s in England and Wales (seen in Figure 4), which led
to a lower ratio of teenagers to women in their 20s in 1987–95 than in
France in the same period.
The England and Wales teenage childbearing rate of daughters of
teenage mothers is next substituted into the model. Results are
presented in simulation III. This involves the replacement of the 0.086
children on average born to daughters of teenage mothers in France
33
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Figure 5
Per cent
8
Spring 2003
Simulated proportions of births to teenage mothers, by own mother’s age at childbearing, 1987 to 2004
Simulation II
France with England
and Wales’ 1960s, 70s
and 80s births
Simulation I
France
7
Simulation III
France, with teenage
fertility rate of England
and Wales’ daughters of
teenage mothers
Simulation IV
France, with teenage fertility
rate of England and Wales’
daughters of teenage and
non-teenage mothers
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1987–95
1996–2004
1987–95
1996–2004
1987–95
1996–2004
1987–95
1996–2004
Year
Own mother was never
a teenage mother
Own mother was a teenager at
this daughter’s birth
Own mother began childbearing
in teenage years, but was no longer
a teenager at this daughter’s birth
("ever–teenage mother")
Sources: Author’s simulations from INSEE and ONS data sources (see text)
with the 0.261 children on average born to daughters of teenage
mothers in England and Wales. The substitution is done using the
French historical base population. The result is a tripling of the
percentages of births to daughters of teenage mothers in both 1987–
1995 and 1996–2004, following directly from the England and Wales
rate being triple that of France’s. The numbers involved are still
relatively small, these inter-generational teenage births amounting to
only 1.98 per cent of all births in 1987–1995 and 1.93 per cent of all
births in 1996–2004. The total percentage of births to teenage mothers
in France (including those of daughters of never-teenage-mothers)
would then have been 3.51 per cent in 1987–1995 and 3.46 per cent in
1996–2004. These are considerably above the 2.32 per cent observed in
France for 1987–1995 and the 2.16 per cent for 1996–2004, but still far
below the England and Wales percentages of 5.94 per cent in 1987–
1995 and 6.06 per cent in 1996–2004.
In the final simulation IV, the England and Wales teenage childbearing
of daughters of never-teenage mothers (that is, those born to a mother
whose childbearing began in her 20s or later) is additionally substituted
in the model. This involves the replacement of the 0.040 children on
average born to daughters of such mothers in France with the 0.109
children on average born to daughters of never-teenage mothers in
England and Wales. This substitution, again done using French
historical population parameters, makes a bigger difference to overall
proportions of teenage births. Just as the previous substitution tripled
the percentage of inter-generational teenage births, this substitution
triples the percentage of other teenage births. The latter now amount to
4.01 per cent of all births in both 1987–1995 and 1996–2004. The total
percentage of births to teenage mothers in France (including also intergenerational teenage births) would then have been 5.93 per cent in
1987–1995 and 5.87 per cent in 1996–2004, very similar to the
observed England and Wales percentages of 5.94 per cent in 1987–1995
and 6.06 per cent in 2000. Thus substituting in the England and Wales
teenage childbearing rates, of both daughters born to teenage mothers
and daughters born to non-teenage mothers is sufficient, when applied
to the French 1960s, 1970s and 1980s base population, to bring
National Statistics
34
France’s proportion of births to teenage mothers from the mid-1980s to
mid-2000s up to the levels observed in England and Wales. This result
follows from France and England and Wales having had similarly
favourable conditions for an echo boom of teenage childbearing in the
1980s and 1990s.
When the Franco-British differences that are due to the rates of
teenage childbearing respectively of daughters of teenage and nonteenage mothers are apportioned out, both are seen to contribute
significantly to the overall difference in late 1980s to early 2000s
teenage childbearing. In approximate terms, the difference between
the 2 per cent of births to teenage mothers in France and the 6 per
cent in England and Wales is bridged by about 1.5 per cent added
when the daughters of ever-teenage mothers in France are given the
England and Wales teenage fertility rates, and by about 2.5 per cent
that is added when the daughters of never-teenage mothers in France
are given the England and Wales teenage fertility rates. Thus England
and Wales’ teenage childbearing that is not a repetition from one
generation to the next accounts for the majority of the difference, but
inter-generational repetition was nevertheless a substantial contributor
to the overall difference.
Simulation results from 2005–2013 to 2032–2040
Figure 6 presents the teenage childbearing simulations that are
projected out from 2005–2013 through to 2032–2040. There are three
different simulations, all using the French base populations. The
simulations are numbered consistently with Figure 5. In simulation I,
the model is run with French parameters (base populations and teenage
childbearing rates) throughout. The England and Wales teenage
childbearing rate of daughters of teenage mothers is substituted in the
model whose results are presented in simulation III. The England and
Wales teenage childbearing of daughters of never-teenage mothers is
additionally substituted in the model whose results are presented in
simulation IV.
Population Trends 111
The main finding from these analyses is of the greater role of the
teenage childbearing of daughters of non-teenage mothers in explaining
the long-term trend of lower teenage childbearing in a population with
France’s levels of teenage fertility as contrasted with those in a
population with the levels of teenage fertility of England and Wales.
France’s teenage-mother proportions of all births over 1987–2004 are
sustained into the future by the continued application of the same
teenage and non-teenage fertility rates into the future. The periods
2014–22 and 2023–31 each see a slightly lower 1.96 per cent of all
births, while 2.30 per cent and 2.28 per cent are projected for 2005–13
and 2032–40. This three-period cycle of higher teenage fertility arises
from the echo 27 years later of the birth swing that saw large numbers
of French teenagers in the 1978–86 period. This swing is partly an
artifact of the model structure, whereby all non-teenage births are
forced to occur at age 27. The meaningful part of the swing, though, is
that it shows that fluctuations in teenage fertility in a French-type
population are not related to inter-generational correlations of teenage
childbearing, but instead to the fluctuations in numbers of teenagers in
a given period, irrespective of whether they were born to a teenage or
(much more commonly) a non-teenage mother.
When only the daughters of ever-teenage mothers in France are given
the British teenage fertility rates (simulation III), the percentage of
teenage mothers falls from that modelled for the 1987–1995 and 1996–
2004 periods (as seen in Figure 5). The periods 2014–22 and 2023–31
see 2.67 per cent and 2.68 per cent of all births to teenage mothers,
while 3.08 per cent and 2.94 per cent are projected for 2005–13 and
2032–40. These falls from the 3.51 per cent in 1987–1995 and 3.46 per
cent in 1996–2004 in this same simulation are entirely due to a fall in
inter-generational teenage childbearing. The 1.98 per cent of all births
in 1987–1995 and 1.93 per cent of all births in 1996–2004 that are
teenage births to a daughter of an ever-teenage-mother fall steadily
from 1.09 per cent in 2005–13 down to 0.92 per cent in 2032–40. That
is, even with British rates of mother-daughter repetition of teenage
childbearing, only 1 per cent of all births each year would be to
Figure 6
Per cent
8
Spring 2003
daughters of a teenage mother were France’s rates of teenage
motherhood among the daughters of non-teenage mothers to apply.
When the daughters of never-teenage mothers in France are additionally
given the British teenage fertility rates (Simulation IV), the overall
percentage of teenage mothers is then sustained at approximately the
England and Wales levels observed in the 1987–1995 and 1996–2004
periods. The periods 2014–22 and 2023–31 each see approximately
comparable levels of 5.91 per cent and 6.02 per cent of all births, while
7.06 per cent and 7.02 per cent of 2005–13 and 2032–40 are produced
by the continuation of the 27-year-apart echo of higher total numbers of
teenagers at risk. Approximately two-thirds of these mothers of teenage
children are born to never-teenage mothers, and one-third born to everteenage mothers. As an important caveat, the majority of this latter
quantity are births to daughters whose mother began childbearing as a
teenager but who was no longer a teenager at this daughter’s birth. The
mean numbers of such births per woman who began childbearing as a
teenager were estimated from French teenage mothers only. An earlier
study24 in England and Wales estimated 26.5 per cent of all teenage
births being to a daughter of an teenage mother under somewhat less
favourable conditions for an inter-generational echo of intergenerational childbearing. Thus the proportion of the present study
appears to be reasonable, though perhaps a little high.
Taking as typical the periods 2014–22 and 2023–31, in approximate
terms the difference between the 2 per cent of births to teenage mothers
in France and the 6 per cent in England and Wales is bridged by about
0.7 per cent added when the daughters of ever-teenage mothers in
France are given the British teenage fertility rates, and by about 3.3 per
cent that is added when the daughters of never-teenage mothers in
France are given the England and Wales teenage fertility rates. Thus
England and Wales’ teenage childbearing that is not a repetition from
one generation to the next accounts for about four-fifths of the
difference, and inter-generational repetition only one-fifth of the
difference between the two countries.
Simulated proportions of births to teenage mothers, by own mother’s age at childbearing, 2005 to 2040
Simulation I
France
Simulation III
France, with the teenage fertility
rates of England and Wales’
daughters of teenage mothers
7
Simulation IV
France, with teenage fertility rate
of England and Wales’ daughters of
teenage and non-teenage mothers
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2005–13
2014–22
2023–31
2032–40
2005–13
Own mother was never
a teenage mother
2014–22 2023–31
Year
2032–40
Own mother was a teenager at
this daughter’s birth
2005–13
2014–22
2023–31
Own mother began childbearing
in teenage years, but no longer
a teenager at this daughter’s birth
("ever–teenage mother")
Sources: Author’s simulations from INSEE and ONS data sources (see text)
35
National Statistics
2032–40
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
While the decline in the total teenage childbearing contribution of everteenage-mothers would be slowed somewhat by inter-generational
teenage childbearing at British levels, eventually only the high teenage
childbearing also of daughters of non-teenage mothers is able to prevent
the decline in importance of inter-generational teenage childbearing.
This latter result demonstrates that while England and Wales’ intergenerational fertility dynamics make inter-generational teenage
motherhood a significant contributor to the high overall levels of
teenage childbearing, its significance derives to a large extent from
interaction with England and Wales’ high levels of teenage fertility
among daughters of non-teenage mothers.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
This study set out to investigate the quantitative importance of intergenerational cycles of teenage childbearing (where daughter’s teenage
childbearing follows mother’s) for Britain’s high overall teenage
childbearing. It did so by evaluating the demographic plausibility of the
inter-generational cycle hypothesis to explain differences between
England and Wales and France. The French definition of age was used
throughout this study, and this needs to be borne in mind when
interpreting and comparing this study’s numerical results. The effect of
the French definition is to reduce the levels of teenage childbearing as
compared to those of published tabulations. Under the French
definition, births to 19 year olds refer to those women who give birth in
the year of their 19th birthday. This means, for example, that the 6.06
per cent of all births to teenage mothers in England and Wales as
presented here translates to 7.58 per cent under the usual British
definition of the teenage years.
A review of the historical numbers of teenage births in the context of all
births illustrated similar patterns in the two countries. Each saw “baby
booms” in the 1960s that coincided with high proportions of teenage
mothers among all births. These high teenage-mother proportions
continued into the early 1970s in both countries. The twin phenomena
of large numbers of births and large proportions born to teenage
mothers thus provided part of the conditions for an inter-generational
teenage childbearing “echo” in the 1980s and early 1990s in both
countries. By 2000, however, the two countries had taken very different
paths, such that the proportion of teenage mothers among all births
were three times higher (at 6 per cent) in England and Wales than in
France (at 2 per cent).
In the long run, only about 1 per cent of all births in England and Wales
would be inter-generational teenage births – that is, births to a teenage
mother who was herself born to a teenage mother – if it wasn’t also for
the higher teenage fertility in England and Wales among daughters of
non-teenage mothers. With the higher teenage fertility in England and
Wales among daughters of non-teenage mothers, about 2 per cent of all
births in England and Wales, or up to one third of all teenage births,
would be inter-generational teenage births. Only with the ongoing
replenishment of the pool of teenage mothers from own mothers who
began childbearing after their teenage years, however, can the 2 per
cent level be sustained instead of dropping to a 1 per cent level.
Without the ongoing replenishment of teenage mothers from families
where the mother started childbearing after her teenage years, the
overall proportion of teenage births in England and Wales would likely
fall to a long-term level just under 3 per cent of all births (compared
with around 2 per cent in France).
This suggests that efforts to reduce the numbers of inter-generational
“repeaters”, even if they were to be effective for this subgroup, would
not do very much to reduce the overall level of teenage motherhood in
England and Wales from its current 6 per cent of all births. To be
effective on a substantial scale, efforts must reduce the teenage
childbearing of a wider risk group that includes the daughters of nonteenage mothers. While inter-generational teenage childbearers are a
significant group, they do not by themselves sustain more than a minor
part of all teenage childbearing.
Key findings
●
●
To analyse how the Franco-British divergence occurred, simulation of
teenage and non-teenage childbearing across generations was
performed. Its results were described in two parts. First, the
childbearing of the mid-1980s to mid-2000s was projected alternately
from the French and British base populations (births to teenage and
non-teenage mothers) of the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, and alternately
substituting in the British teenage childbearing rates of daughters of
teenage and non-teenage mothers for the French rates. Second, the
simulations were projected out a further 36 years into the 21st century
to fully capture the dynamic features of inter-generational teenage
childbearing and other teenage and non-teenage childbearing.
Results showed that in the short run, inter-generational teenage
childbearing (the daughters of teenage mothers becoming teenage
mothers themselves) can account for about one-third of the 4 per cent
difference in proportion of teenage mothers in all births (2 per cent
versus 6 per cent) between France and England and Wales. In the long
run, however, inter-generational childbearing could account for only
about one-fifth of the difference. The larger contribution in the shortrun can be interpreted as being due to the interaction of England and
Wales’ higher teenage childbearing of daughters of non-teenage
mothers with inter-generational teenage childbearing. This interaction is
explained as follows.
National Statistics
36
●
●
●
The 1960s and early 1970s saw peaks in numbers
and proportions of births to teenage mothers in
both England and Wales and France. These provided
conditions favourable to an “echo” occurring 20
years later, in the form of greater numbers of births
to teenage mothers and to the teenage daughters of
teenage mothers (“inter-generational teenage
births”) in both countries.
In both England and Wales and France, the daughters
of teenage mothers are more than twice as likely to
become teenage mothers themselves than are the
daughters of mothers in their 20s or older (“nonteenage mothers”).
The daughters of both teenage and non-teenage
mothers in England and Wales were more than three
times more likely to become teenage mothers than
were the daughters respectively of teenage and nonteenage mothers in France.
The above combination of conditions resulted in a
teenage childbearing “echo” occurring in England
and Wales, but not in France. Up to one third of all
teenage childbearing in England and Wales in the
late 1980s through 1990s may have been to the
daughters of teenage mothers. These still constitute,
however, only about two per cent of all births.
In the long-term, inter-generational teenage births
would fall to only one per cent of all births, and
overall teenage childbearing would halve, if it were
not for the higher levels of teenage childbearing of
the daughters of non-teenage mothers in England
and Wales than in France.
Population Trends 111
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author is grateful to Myer Glickman, Heather Joshi, David Pearce
and Steve Smallwood for helpful comments on an earlier draft.
Longitudinal Study (LS) analyses presented here use data provided by
Kevin Lynch then of the LS Support Group at the Institute of
Education, from data collections and files produced by the Office for
National Statistics (ONS). The equivalent French analyses presented
here use French Demographic Panel (EDP) data collected and compiled
by the Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(INSEE), who generously provided the author with the on-site
resources for access to those data. Historical numbers of teenage and all
births in France were provided by Fabienne Daguet and Isabelle
Robert-Bobée at INSEE. The teenage fertility rates for use in adjusting
the LS estimates to the national teenage fertility rates were supplied by
Alec Ross of the Centre for LS Information and User Support at the
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The data for the
cross-national comparisons of teenage fertility in Figure 1 were
provided by Jean-Paul Sardon at the Observatoire Démographique
Européen. Detailed tabulations of teenage fertility in England and
Wales were provided by Denis Till. Funding was provided by the
Nuffield Foundation and the Institut National d’Etudes
Demographiques (INED). None of these agencies or persons bear any
responsibility for the analyses and interpretations presented here.
REFERENCES
Spring 2003
16. Cribier F and Kych A (1993). A comparison of retirement migration
from Paris and London. Special LS issue of Environment and
Planning A 25(10), pp. 1399–1420.
17. Hall R, Ogden PE and Hill C (1999). Living alone: Evidence from
England and Wales and France for the last two decades, in McRae S
(ed.) Changing Britain: Families and Households in the 1990s.
Oxford University Press: Oxford.
18. Ekert-Jaffé O, Joshi H, Lynch K, Mougin R and Rendall M S
(2002). Fertility, Timing of Births and Socioeconomic Status in
France and Great Britain: Social Policies and Occupational
Polarisation. Population-E 57(3), pp. 475–508
19. Babb P and Hattersley L (1992). An examination of the quality of
LS data for fertility analysis. LS User Guide no. 10. Centre for
Longitudinal Studies : London.
20. Werner (1984). Fertility and family background: from the OPCS
Longitudinal Study. Population Trends 35, pp. 5–10.
21. DiSalvo P M (1992). Intergenerational patterns of teenage fertility
in England and Wales. MSc thesis. London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Medicine.
22. Rosato M (1999). Teenage fertility in England and Wales: trends in
socioeconomic circumstances between the 1971 and 1981
Censuses. LS Working Paper 78. Office for National Statistics:
London.
23. Pearce D, Cantisani G and Laihonen A (1999). Changes in fertility
and family sizes in Europe. Population Trends 95, pp. 33–40.
24. See note 21.
1. Office for National Statistics (2003). Social Trends no.33, 2003
edition. TSO: London, p.49.
2. For example, Babb P (1993). Teenage conceptions and fertility in
England and Wales, 1971–91. Population Trends 74, pp.12–17, and
Kiernan K E (1997) Becoming a young parent: A longitudinal study
of associated factors. British Journal of Sociology 3, pp. 406–428.
3. For example, Social Exclusion Unit (1999). Teenage Pregnancy.
TSO: London.
4. Kahn J R and Anderson K E (1992). Intergenerational patterns of
teenage fertility. Demography 29(1), pp. 39–57.
5. Maynard R, ed. (1997). Kids having Kids: Economic Costs and
Social Consequences of Teenage Pregnancy. Urban Institute Press:
Washington D.C.
6. Chandola T, Coleman D A and Hiorns R W (1999). Recent
European fertility patterns: Fitting curves to ‘distorted’
distributions. Population Studies 53, pp. 317–329.
7. Chandola T, Coleman D A and Hiorns R W (2002). Distinctive
features of age-specific fertility profiles in the English-speaking
world: Common patterns in Australia, New Zealand and the United
States, 1970–98. Population Studies 56, pp. 181–200.
8. Jones E F et al (1986). Teenage Pregnancy in Industrialized
Countries. Yale University Press: New Haven.
9. Gauthier A H (1996). The State and the Family: A Comparative
Analysis of Family Policies in Industrialized Countries. Oxford
University Press: Oxford.
10. Wellings K. and Wadsworth J (1999). Family influences on teenage
fertility in McRae S (ed.) Changing Britain: Families and
Households in the 1990s. Oxford University Press: Oxford.
11. Office for National Statistics (various years). Birth Statistics, series
FM1. The Stationery Office: London.
12. INSEE (various years). Mouvement de la Population. INSEE: Paris.
13. Teitler J. The relationship between adult fertility and adolescent
fertility in developed countries. Paper presented at the 1999 Annual
Meeting of the Population Association of America.
14. Hattersley L and Creeser R (1995). Longitudinal Study 1971–1991:
History, organisation and quality of data. Office for National
Statistics, series LS No.7. HMSO: London.
15. INSEE (1995). Echantillon Démographique Permanent: Manuel de
l’Utilisation. INSEE Departement de la Démographie: Paris.
37
National Statistics
Health Statistics Quar terly
Spring 99
Tables
Table*
Page
Population
1.1 (1)
1.2 (2)
International
National
1.3 (4)
Subnational
1.4 (6)
Age and sex
1.5 (7)
1.6 (5)
Age, sex and legal marital status
Components of population change
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Selected countries
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
Government Office Regions
of England
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
England and Wales
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
39
41
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
49
England and Wales
England and Wales
52
53
54
42
43
46
48
Vital statistics
2.1 (8)
Summary
2.2 (new)
Key demographic and health indicators
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51
Live births
3.1 (9)
3.2 (10)
3.3 (11)
Age of mother
Outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration
Within marriage, within marriage to remarried women,
age of mother and birth order
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Conceptions
4.1 (12)
Age of woman at conception
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England and Wales
(residents)
55
Constituent countries of
the United Kingdom
56
England and Wales
Government Office Regions
of England
57
58
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
59
60
61
United Kingdom
62
England and Wales
England and Wales
England and Wales
63
64
65
Expectation of life
5.1 (13)
(In years) at birth and selected age
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Deaths
6.1 (14)
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Age and sex
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International migration
7.1 (18)
7.2 (19)
7.3 (20)
Age and sex
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Citizenship
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Movements within the United Kingdom
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Marriage and divorce
9.1 (22)
9.2 (23)
9.3 (24)
First marriages: age and sex
Remarriages: age, sex and previous marital status
Divorces: age and sex
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* Numbers in brackets indicate former table numbers in editions of Population Trends prior to spring 1999 (No. 95).
Former tables 16 and 17 (Deaths by selected causes, and Abortions) now appear in Health Statistics Quarterly.
StatBase ®: Population Trends tables are now available on StatBase® which can be accessed via our website:
www.statistics.gov.uk
Symbols
..
:
National Statistics
38
not available
not applicable
–
p
nil or less than half the final digit shown
provisional
38
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
Population and vital rates: international
Table 1.1
Selected countries
Year
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
Austria
ii
Belgium
ii
Denmark
ii
Finland
ii
France
ii
Germany
ii
Greece
ii
Irish
Republic ii
Italy
ii
Luxembourg ii
Netherlands ii
Portugal
ii
Population (thousands)
1971
55,928
1976
56,216
1981
56,357
1986
56,684
1991
57,439
7,501
7,566
7,569
7,588
7,813
9,673
9,818
9,859
9,862
10,004
4,963
5,073
5,121
5,120
5,154
4,612
4,726
4,800
4,918
5,014
51,251
52,909
54,182
55,547
57,055
78,313
78,337
78,408
77,720
80,014
8,831
9,167
9,729
9,967
10,247
2,992
3,238
3,443
3,543
3,534
54,073
55,718
56,502
56,596
56,751
342
361
365
368
387
13,194
13,774
14,247
14,572
15,070
8,644
9,356
9,851
10,011
9,871
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
57,672
57,797
57,928
58,043
58,167
7,992
8,030
8,050
8,059
8,072
10,084
10,116
10,137
10,157
10,181
5,189
5,206
5,230
5,263
5,280
5,066
5,088
5,110
5,120
5,140
57,654
57,900
58,140
58,370
58,610
81,190
81,420
81,660
81,900
82,060
10,379
10,426
10,450
10,476
10,499
3,576
3,590
3,598
3,636
3,673
57,049
57,204
57,269
57,397
57,520
398
404
407
416
421
15,290
15,383
15,460
15,530
15,611
9,881
9,902
9,920
9,927
9,946
1998
1999
2000
2001
58,305
58,481
58,643
58,837
8,078
8.090
8,110
8,080
10,210
10,230
10,250
10,263
5,304
5,330
5,340
5,330
5,153
5,170
5,180
5,190
58,850
59,100
58,890
59,190
82,020
82,090
82,180
82,360
10,516
10,522
10,010
10,020
3,700
3,750
3,790
3,840
57,588
57,650
57,760
57,950
426
429
436
441
15,707
15,810
15,910
16,040
9,968
9,890
10,010
10,020
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
1.0
1.7
3.0
1976–81
0.5
0.1
0.8
1981–86
1.2
0.5
0.1
1986–91
2.6
5.9
2.9
1991–96
2.1
6.3
3.1
4.4
1.9
0.0
1.3
4.2
4.9
3.1
4.9
3.9
3.8
6.5
4.8
5.0
5.4
4.6
0.1
0.2
–1.8
5.9
4.7
7.6
12.3
4.9
5.6
4.5
16.4
12.7
5.8
–0.5
3.6
6.1
2.8
0.3
0.5
2.3
10.7
2.5
1.8
10.2
14.9
8.8
6.9
4.6
6.8
6.1
16.5
10.6
3.2
–2.8
1.1
2.8
2.0
2.0
1.3
4.5
4.9
1.9
–1.9
2.5
3.3
1.9
1.9
4.1
4.2
– 3.6
5.1
0.5
0.9
1.1
2.2
1.6
0.6
–48.7
1.0
7.4
13.5
10.7
13.2
1.2
–1.5
4.5
3.3
11.9
7.0
16.3
11.5
6.1
6.6
6.3
8.2
2.2
–7.8
12.1
1.0
Live birth rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
14.1
13.3
1976–80
12.5
11.5
1981–85
12.9
12.0
1986–90
13.7
11.6
1991–95
13.2
11.8
13.4
12.5
12.0
12.1
12.0
14.6
12.0
10.2
11.5
13.1
13.1
13.6
13.4
12.7
12.9
16.0
14.1
14.2
13.8
12.7
10.5
10.5
10.7
9.8
10.9
15.8
15.6
13.3
10.6
9.9
22.2
21.3
19.2
15.8
14.0
16.0
12.6
10.6
9.8
9.6
11.6
11.2
11.6
12.2
13.3
14.9
12.6
12.2
12.8
12.8
20.3
17.9
14.5
11.9
11.4
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
11.2
11.3
11.3
11.1
11.2
11.3
12.9
12.8
12.5
12.4
12.6
..
11.8
11.5
11.1
11.2
11.0
10.8
12.6
12.4
12.6
12.7
13.2
..
9.7
9.9
9.7
9.4
9.4
9.1
9.6
9.7
9.6
11.0
11.7
..
13.9
14.4
14.5
14.2
14.3
15.1
9.2
9.3
9.0
9.1
9.3
..
13.7
13.1
12.6
13.0
13.1
12.4
12.2
12.3
12.7
12.7
13.0
12.6
11.1
11.4
11.4
11.6
11.8
10.8
Death rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
11.8
12.6
1976–80
11.9
12.3
1981–85
11.7
12.0
1986–90
11.4
11.1
1991–95
11.1
10.4
12.1
11.6
11.4
10.8
10.4
10.1
10.5
11.1
11.5
11.9
9.5
9.3
9.3
9.8
9.8
10.7
10.2
10.1
9.5
9.1
12.3
12.2
12.0
11.6
10.8
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.3
9.5
11.0
10.2
9.4
9.1
8.8
9.8
9.7
9.5
9.4
9.7
12.2
11.5
11.2
10.5
9.8
8.3
8.1
8.3
8.5
8.8
11.0
10.1
9.6
9.6
10.4
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
10.3
10.2
10.2
10.3
10.2
10.2
11.6
11.3
11.0
11.1
10.9
..
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.3
9.2
9.0
9.2
9.2
9.1
..
10.8
10.5
10.4
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.8
10.5
..
8.7
8.6
8.5
8.5
8.2
7.8
9.6
9.8
10.0
9.8
9.7
..
9.4
9.4
9.1
8.8
8.6
7.2
8.9
8.7
8.8
8.9
8.8
8.8
10.8
10.6
10.7
10.8
10.6
10.4
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
United
Kingdom i
1
2.5
3.2
2.1
3.1
12.6
12.5
12.3
12.0
11.6
11.4
11.0
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.4
10.2
0.7
1.5
2.5
–3.7
11.0
10.4
10.1
9.7
9.6
9.2
10.0
9.8
9.7
9.7
9.3
9.1
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
Population estimated as follows:
i
At 30 June.
ii
Estimated mid-year population at latest available date, as given in Council of Europe report:
Recent Demographic Developments in Europe.
iii The European Union consists of 15 member countries (EU15); live birth rates and death rates as
given in Eurostat report, Demographic Statistics.
iv At 1 July as given in the United Nations Demographic Yearbook or United Nations Monthly Bulletin of
Statistics.
1 Including former GDR throughout.
2 Estimates prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations –
excludes Hong Kong.
3 Rates are based on births to, or deaths of, Japanese nationals only.
4 Rates are for 1990–1995.
5 Estimates prepared by Eurostat.
6 Including Hong Kong.
7 Including the Indian held part of Jammu and Kashmir, the final status of
which has not yet been determined.
. . Figures not available.
p Provisional
39
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Table 1.1
continued
Spring 2003
Population and vital rates: international
Selected countries
Year
Numbers (thousands)/Rates per thousand
Spain
ii
India 7
iv
Japan3
iv
Sweden
ii
European
Union iii
Russian
Federation ii
Australia
iv
Canada
iv
New
Zealand iv
China
iv
Population (thousands)
1971
34,216
1976
36,118
1981
37,741
1986
38,536
1991
38,920
8,098
8,222
8,320
8,370
8,617
342,631
350,598
356,494
359,418
365,923
130,934
135,027
139,225
144,154
147,885
13,067
14,033
14,923
16,018
17,284
22,026
23,517
24,900
26,204
28,030
2,899
3,163
3,195
3,317
3,480
852,290
937,170
1,008,460
1,086,733
1,170,100
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
39,086
39,149
39,210
39,270
39,323
8,719
8,781
8,830
8,841
8,846
369,254
370,424
371,429
372,438
373,386
148,146
147,968
147,939
147,373
146,938
17,667
17,855
18,072
18,311
18,520
28,700
29,040
29,350
29,670
29,990
3,550
3,600
3,660
3,710
3,760
1,195,660
1,207,580
1,236,700
1,246,240
1,242,800
2
1998
1999
2000
2001
39,371
39,420
39,470
40,270
8,851
8,854
8,862
8,833
374,091
374,720
374,852
376,714
146,534
146,328
145,560
144,819
18,730
18,970
19,160
19,490
30,250
30,490
30,770
31,110
3,790
3,810
3,830
3,850
1,253,900
1,264,770
1,275,130
1,284,970
2
Population changes (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–76
11.1
3.1
1976–81
9.0
2.1
1981–86
4.2
1.2
1986–91
2.0
5.9
1991–96
1.8
5.2
4.7
3.4
1.6
3.6
3.6
6.3
6.2
7.1
5.2
0.7
14.8
12.7
14.7
15.8
11.9
13.5
11.8
10.5
13.9
11.7
18.2
2.0
7.6
9.8
13.2
19.9
15.2
15.5
15.3
13.0
23.9
18.8
27.3
22.1
20.6
15.1
8.5
6.4
3.8
6.1
10.0
10.9
9.3
9.9
10.2
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
0.6
0.3
0.9
2.4
1.9
1.7
0.4
5.0
–2.7
–1.4
–5.2
–5.1
11.3
12.8
10.0
17.2
8.7
7.9
8.5
11.0
8.0
5.3
5.2
5.2
8.9
8.7
8.2
7.7
–24.4
16.1
15.7
15.4
2.7
0.7
2.9
3.7
8.5
8.8
9.4
34.7
Live birth rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
19.2
13.5
1976–80
17.1
11.6
1981–85
12.8
11.3
1986–90
10.8
13.2
1991–95
9.8
13.3
14.7
13.1
12.2
12.0
9.7
..
..
..
..
10.2
18.8
15.7
15.6
15.1
..
15.9
15.5
15.1
14.8
..
20.4
16.8
15.8
17.1
..
27.2
18.6
19.2
..
18.5 4
35.6
33.4
..
..
..
18.6
14.9
12.6
10.6
..
15.3
15.2
15.7
16.0
..
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
10.8
10.2
10.1
10.0
10.2
..
10.8
10.8
10.7
..
..
..
8.8
8.6
8.8
8.3
8.7
9.1
13.9
13.6
13.3
13.1
13.0
12.6
12.2
11.9
..
..
..
..
15.4
15.4
14.6
15.0
14.8
..
9.8
9.1
8.1
7.8
8.1
7.2
27.3
..
..
..
..
..
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.3
9.4
..
14.7
14.5
14.6
14.5
14.7
..
Death rate (per 1,000 per annum)
1971–75
8.5
1976–80
8.0
1981–85
7.7
1986–90
8.2
1991–95
8.7
10.5
10.9
11.0
11.1
10.9
10.8
10.6
10.4
10.2
10.0
..
..
..
..
13.7
8.2
7.6
7.3
7.2
..
7.4
7.2
7.0
7.3
..
8.4
8.2
8.1
8.2
..
7.3
6.6
6.7
..
..
15.5
13.8
..
..
..
6.4
6.1
6.1
6.4
..
9.1
8.7
8.6
8.7
..
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
10.6
10.5
10.5
10.7
10.5
..
10.0
9.8
9.9
..
..
..
14.1
13.7
13.6
14.7
15.3
15.6
7.0
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.6
7.1
7.2
..
..
..
..
7.6
7.3
6.9
7.4
7.0
..
5.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.8
8.9
..
..
..
..
7.1
7.2
7.4
7.8
7.6
..
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.8
8.7
.. ..
1.2
1.2
1.3
20.3
9.2
9.4
9.3
9.6
9.9
..
8.9
8.9
9.1
9.1
9.3
..
5
5
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
Population estimated as follows:
i
At 30 June.
ii
Estimated mid-year population at latest available date, as given in Council of Europe report:
Recent Demographic Developments in Europe.
iii The European Union consists of 15 member countries (EU15); live birth rates and death rates as
given in Eurostat report, Demographic Statistics.
iv At 1 July as given in the United Nations Demographic Yearbook or United Nations Monthly Bulletin of
Statistics.
National Statistics
40
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
USA
iv
551,311
617,248
675,185
767,199
851,900
105,145
113,094
117,902
121,672
123,964
207,661
218,035
229,958
240,680
252,618
886,250
903,940
921,990
939,540
955,220
124,829
125,178
125,472
127,761
126,070
258,080
260,602
263,040
265,460
268,010
126,410
126,650 2
126,870
127,340
270,300
272,690
275,260 2
284,800
970,930
986,610
1,002,140
1,017,540
1 Including former GDR throughout.
2 Estimates prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations –
excludes Hong Kong.
3 Rates are based on births to, or deaths of, Japanese nationals only.
4 Rates are for 1990–1995.
5 Estimates prepared by Eurostat.
6 Including Hong Kong.
7 Including the Indian held part of Jammu and Kashmir, the final status of
which has not yet been determined.
. . Figures not available.
p Provisional
Population Trends 111
Table 1.2
Spring 2003
Population: national
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Mid-year
Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution
United
Kingdom
Great
Britain
England
and Wales
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern
Ireland
Estimates
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,684
57,439
54,388
54,693
54,815
55,110
55,831
49,152
49,459
49,634
49,999
50,748
46,412
46,660
46,821
47,188
47,875
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,811
2,873
5,236
5,233
5,180
5,112
5,083
1,540
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
1993
1994
1995
1996
57,672
57,797
57,928
58,043
56,037
56,154
56,279
56,381
50,944
51,051
51,175
51,289
48,063
48,166
48,290
48,402
2,882
2,885
2,885
2,887
5,092
5,102
5,104
5,092
1,636
1,644
1,649
1,662
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
58,167
58,305
58,481
58,643
58,837
56,496
56,627
56,802
56,960
57,149
51,413
51,550
51,730
51,897
52,084
48,523
48,658
48,836
48,997
49,181
2,890
2,893
2,894
2,900
2,903
5,083
5,077
5,072
5,063
5,064
1,671
1,678
1,679
1,683
1,689
5.9
14.2
40.1
21.3
10.9
7.5
5.9
14.2
40.1
21.4
10.9
7.6
5.9
14.2
40.0
21.4
10.9
7.6
5.9
14.2
40.2
21.3
10.8
7.6
5.8
14.5
37.4
22.3
11.8
8.3
5.5
13.7
40.4
21.8
11.5
7.1
6.8
16.7
41.7
19.3
9.6
6.0
59,657
60,524
61,459
62,386
57,943
58,789
59,705
60,617
52,920
53,806
54,762
55,722
49,994
50,859
51,790
52,725
2,926
2,947
2,972
2,997
5,023
4,983
4,943
4,895
1,714
1,735
1,754
1,769
5.7
12.3
36.2
26.3
10.5
9.0
5.7
12.3
36.2
26.3
10.5
9.0
5.7
12.3
36.3
26.2
10.4
9.0
5.7
12.3
36.4
26.2
10.4
9.0
5.5
12.3
34.5
25.9
11.6
10.0
5.1
11.3
35.0
28.1
11.4
9.2
5.9
13.3
36.5
26.5
9.8
8.1
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
Projections1
2006
2011
2016
2021
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64 2
65–74 2
75 and over
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 ’Interim‘ national projections based on the mid-2001 population estimates.
2 Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes.
41
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Table 1.3
Spring 2003
Population: subnational
Government Office Regions of England 1
Mid-year
Numbers (thousands) and percentage age distribution
North
East
North
West
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
South
West
Estimates
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
2,679
2,671
2,636
2,594
2,587
7,108
7,043
6,940
6,833
6,843
4,902
4,924
4,918
4,884
4,936
3,652
3,774
3,853
3,908
4,011
5,146
5,178
5,187
5,180
5,230
4,454
4,672
4,854
4,999
5,121
7,529
7,089
6,806
6,774
6,829
6,830
7,029
7,245
7,468
7,629
4,112
4,280
4,381
4,548
4,688
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
2,589
2,589
2,582
2,573
2,564
6,835
6,836
6,823
6,809
6,787
4,948
4,955
4,958
4,957
4,954
4,035
4,053
4,070
4,089
4,105
5,237
5,246
5,248
5,255
5,260
5,142
5,152
5,177
5,205
5,236
6,823
6,832
6,844
6,860
6,901
7,656
7,672
7,711
7,764
7,805
4,711
4,729
4,753
4,778
4,789
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2,554
2,544
2,531
2,523
2,517
6,769
6,762
6,738
6,737
6,732
4,951
4,950
4,947
4,950
4,967
4,116
4,125
4,144
4,157
4,175
5,261
5,267
5,265
5,260
5,267
5,270
5,306
5,341
5,375
5,395
6,928
6,969
7,041
7,104
7,188
7,857
7,891
7,955
7,982
8,007
4,819
4,843
4,874
4,909
4,934
5.5
14.2
39.1
21.9
11.8
7.5
5.8
14.8
39.2
21.6
11.2
7.4
5.9
14.6
39.5
21.4
11.1
7.6
5.7
14.3
39.2
22.1
11.0
7.6
6.0
14.8
39.0
21.6
11.1
7.4
6.0
14.1
38.9
22.1
11.1
7.8
6.7
13.5
47.4
18.0
8.5
5.9
5.9
14.0
39.4
21.9
10.8
8.0
5.5
13.6
37.1
22.6
12.1
9.3
2,579
2,555
2,536
2,521
2,509
6,871
6,843
6,820
6,813
6,808
5,071
5,098
5,130
5,165
5,200
4,234
4,312
4,384
4,455
4,523
5,343
5,358
5,372
5,391
5,411
5,448
5,582
5,702
5,823
5,941
7,215
7,337
7,470
7,609
7,736
8,134
8,344
8,534
8,722
8,905
4,977
5,098
5,213
5,333
5,452
5.4
12.1
35.1
27.7
11.2
8.4
5.7
12.4
35.4
27.5
10.6
8.4
5.6
12.2
35.9
27.3
10.6
8.4
5.4
12.0
35.1
27.4
11.1
9.0
5.7
12.5
34.9
27.3
10.7
8.9
5.5
12.1
34.5
27.2
11.2
9.5
6.4
12.5
41.5
26.3
7.7
5.6
5.4
12.1
34.9
27.4
10.9
9.3
4.9
11.2
32.8
27.8
12.4
10.8
of which (percentages)
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64M/59F
65M/60F–74
75 and over
Projections2
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
of which (percentages)4
0–4
5–15
16–44
45–64 3
65–74 3
75 and over
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
1 From 1 April 2002 there are four Directorates of Health and Social Care (DHSCs) within the Department of Health.The GORs sit within the DHSCs as follows: North East, North West,
Yorkshire and The Humber GORs are within North DHSC, East Midlands, West Midlands and East GORs are within Midlands and Eastern DHSC, London GOR equates to London DHSC
and South East and South West GORs are within South DHSC. See ‘In brief’ Health Statistics Quarterly number 15 for further details of changes to Health Areas.
2 These projections are based on the mid-1996 population estimates and are consistent with the 1996-based national projections produced by the Government Actuary’s Department.
3 Between 2010 and 2020, state retirement age will change from 65 years for men and 60 years for women to 65 years for both sexes.
4 The percentages shown in this table are correct and show the proportion in each age group for 2021. These replace the percentage figures shown in Health Statistics Quarterly numbers 01,
02 and 03, and Population Trends 95 and 96, which were miscalculated.
See Notes to tables on page 66.
National Statistics
42
Population Trends 111
Table 1.4
Spring 2003
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
United Kingdom
Persons
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,684
57,439
58,043
899
677
730
748
790
719
3,654
3,043
2,726
2,886
3,077
3,020
8,916
9.176
8,147
7,143
7,141
7,524
8,144
8.126
9,019
9,200
8,168
7,182
6,971
7,868
8,010
8,007
8,898
9,094
6,512
6,361
6,774
7,711
7,918
7,956
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
58,167
58,305
58,481
58,643
58,837
734
713
704
681
662
2,954
2,929
2,896
2,867
2,815
7,604
7,654
7,687
7,653
7,614
7,064
6,993
7,019
7,080
7,228
9,014
8,878
8,697
8,523
8,332
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
27,167
27,360
27.412
27,542
27,909
28,182
461
348
374
384
403
369
1,874
1,564
1,400
1,478
1,572
1,548
4,576
4,711
4,184
3,664
3,655
3,843
4,137
4,145
4,596
4,663
4,146
3,601
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
28,244
28,310
28,406
28,491
28,611
376
365
361
349
338
1,515
1,502
1,485
1,468
1,443
3,887
3,915
3,934
3,920
3,901
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
28,761
28,856
28,946
29,142
29,530
29,861
437
330
356
364
387
350
1,779
1,479
1,327
1,408
1,505
1,473
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
29,924
29,995
30,075
30,153
30,225
358
348
343
332
324
England and Wales
Persons
1971
49,152
1976
49,459
1981
49,634
1986
49,999
1991
50,748
1996
51,289
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
over
Under
16
10,202
9,836
9,540
9,212
9,500
10,551
3,222
3,131
2,935
3,069
2,888
2,782
4,764
5,112
5,195
5,020
5,067
5,061
2,159
2,348
2,677
2,971
3,119
3,127
358
390
..
716
626
710
127
147
..
..
248
317
14,257
13,797
12,543
11,645
11,685
11,996
32,548
32,757
33,780
34,725
35,197
35,408
9,123
9,663
10,035
10,313
10,557
10,639
8,115
8,284
8,464
8,655
8,804
10,655
10,762
10,875
10,992
11,144
2,795
2,833
2,874
2,897
2,880
5,009
4,973
4,941
4,933
4,940
3,178
3,209
3,226
3,244
3,290
720
735
745
755
753
328
344
353
363
376
11,996
12,008
12,012
11,955
11,855
35,508
35,591
35,736
35,914
36,154
10,663
10,706
10,733
10,774
10,828
3,530
3,981
4,035
4,022
4,432
4,505
3,271
3,214
3,409
3,864
3,949
3,953
4,970
4,820
4,711
4,572
4,732
5,243
1,507
1,466
1,376
1,463
1,390
1,358
1,999
2,204
2,264
2,206
2,272
2,309
716
775
922
1,060
1,146
1,187
97
101
..
166
166
201
29
31
..
..
46
65
7,318
7,083
6,439
5,968
5,976
6,130
17,008
17.167
17,646
18,142
18,303
18,290
2,841
3,111
3,327
3,432
3,768
3,762
3,535
3,500
3,518
3,559
3,648
4,455
4,376
4,275
4,179
4,083
4,029
4,108
4,192
4,279
4,347
5,291
5,340
5,393
5,446
5,520
1,366
1,387
1,408
1,418
1,409
2,297
2,291
2,286
2,291
2,304
1,217
1,239
1,257
1,276
1,306
207
215
220
225
227
68
73
77
80
85
6,136
6,145
6,150
6,124
6,073
18,319
18,348
18,415
18,901
18,616
3,789
3,818
3,840
3,872
3,922
4,340
4,465
3,963
3,480
3,487
3,681
4,008
3,980
4,423
4,538
4,021
3,581
3,441
3,887
3,975
3,985
4,466
4,589
3,241
3,147
3,365
3,847
3,968
4,003
5,231
5,015
4,829
4,639
4,769
5,307
1,715
1,665
1,559
1,606
1,498
1,424
2,765
2,908
2,931
2,814
2,795
2,751
1,443
1,573
1,756
1,911
1,972
1,941
261
289
..
550
460
509
97
116
..
..
202
252
6,938
6,714
6,104
5,678
5,709
5,866
15,540
15,590
16,134
16,583
16,894
17,118
6,282
6,552
6,708
6,881
6,927
6,877
1,439
1,427
1,411
1,398
1,372
3,716
3,739
3,753
3,733
3,713
3,528
3,493
3,501
3,521
3,579
4,559
4,502
4,422
4,344
4,249
4,086
4,177
4,271
4,376
4,457
5,364
5,422
5,482
5,546
5,624
1,429
1,446
1,467
1,479
1,470
2,712
2,682
2,655
2,643
2,636
1,961
1,969
1,969
1,968
1,983
513
520
525
529
525
260
271
277
283
291
5,860
5,863
5,862
5,831
5,781
17,190
17,244
17,321
17,419
17,538
6,874
6,888
6,892
6,902
6,906
782
585
634
654
698
636
3,170
2,642
2,372
2,522
2,713
2,670
7,705
7,967
7,085
6,226
6,248
6,616
7,117
7,077
7,873
8,061
7,165
6,287
6,164
6,979
7,086
7,052
7,862
8,038
5,736
5,608
5,996
6,856
7,022
7,015
9,034
8,707
8,433
8,136
8,407
9,360
2,853
2,777
2,607
2,725
2,553
2,454
4,228
4,540
4,619
4,470
4,506
4,490
1,926
2,093
2,388
2,655
2,790
2,799
323
351
383
461
561
638
115
135
157
182
223
285
12,334
11,973
10,910
10,161
10,247
10,562
28,710
28,894
29,796
30,647
31,101
31,263
8,108
8,593
8,928
9,190
9,400
9,464
51,413
51,550
51,730
51,897
52,084
650
632
625
606
589
2,613
2,593
2,565
2,542
2,497
6,694
6,745
6,782
6,758
6,730
6,184
6,125
6,157
6,216
6,355
7,971
7,855
7,702
7,559
7,394
7,153
7,304
7,464
7,637
7,775
9,453
9,547
9,644
9,746
9,874
2,467
2,501
2,539
2,561
2,544
4,440
4,406
4,375
4,365
4,370
2,845
2,872
2,887
2,902
2,941
647
660
670
679
677
296
310
319
328
339
10,572
10,594
10,609
10,567
10,487
31,357
31,436
31,579
31,753
31,976
9,483
9,520
9,542
9,578
9,622
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
23,897
24,089
24,160
24,311
24,681
24,924
402
300
324
335
356
327
1,626
1,358
1,218
1,292
1,385
1,369
3,957
4,091
3,639
3,194
3,198
3,379
3,615
3,610
4,011
4,083
3,638
3,150
3,129
3,532
3,569
3,542
3,920
3,985
2,891
2,843
3,024
3,438
3,504
3,489
4,414
4,280
4,178
4,053
4,199
4,658
1,337
1,304
1,227
1,302
1,234
1,203
1,778
1,963
2,020
1,972
2,027
2,058
637
690
825
951
1,029
1,067
86
91
94
115
150
182
26
29
32
35
42
59
6,334
6,148
5,601
5,208
5,240
5,397
15,036
15,169
15,589
16,031
16,193
16,162
2,527
2,773
2,970
3,072
3,248
3,365
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
24,986
25,052
25,151
25,238
25,355
333
323
320
310
301
1,341
1,330
1,315
1,302
1,279
3,422
3,450
3,471
3,462
3,448
3,093
3,064
3,086
3,125
3,208
3,943
3,875
3,789
3,709
3,627
3,555
3,626
3,703
3,783
3,847
4,700
4,742
4,786
4,831
4,893
1,211
1,229
1,248
1,257
1,249
2,045
2,039
2,033
2,037
2,048
1,094
1,115
1,131
1,147
1,173
187
194
199
204
206
62
66
70
73
77
5,408
5,421
5,432
5,413
5,372
16,189
16,217
16,286
16,365
16,479
3,389
3,414
3,433
3,460
3,503
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
25,255
25,370
25,474
25,687
26,067
26,365
380
285
310
319
342
310
1,544
1,284
1,154
1,231
1,328
1,301
3,749
3,876
3,446
3,032
3,050
3,237
3,502
3,467
3,863
3,978
3,527
3,137
3,036
3,447
3,517
3,509
3,943
4,054
2,845
2,765
2,972
3,418
3,517
3,526
4,620
4,428
4,255
4,083
4,208
4,701
1,516
1,473
1,380
1,422
1,319
1,251
2,450
2,577
2,599
2,498
2,479
2,433
1,289
1,403
1,564
1,704
1,761
1,732
236
261
289
346
411
456
89
106
126
148
181
227
6,000
5,826
5,309
4,953
5,007
5,165
13,673
13,725
14,207
14,616
14,908
15,101
5,581
5,820
5,958
6,118
6,152
6,099
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
26,427
26,498
26,579
26,659
26,730
317
308
305
295
288
1,273
1,263
1,250
1,240
1,218
3,272
3,295
3,311
3,296
3,282
3,091
3,062
3,072
3,091
3,146
4,029
3,981
3,914
3,850
3,767
3,598
3,677
3,761
3,854
3,928
4,753
4,805
4,858
4,915
4,982
1,256
1,272
1,291
1,303
1,295
2,395
2,367
2,341
2,329
2,322
1,750
1,758
1,756
1,755
1,767
460
466
471
475
471
234
244
249
255
262
5,164
5,173
5,177
5,154
5,115
15,168
15,219
15,293
15,387
15,497
6,094
6,107
6,109
6,117
6,118
.. Figures not available.
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
43
National Statistics
16–
64/59
65/60
and over
Population Trends 111
Table 1.4
continued
Spring 2003
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
over
Under
16
16–
64/59
65/60
and over
England
Persons
1971
1981
1986
1991
1996
46,412
46,821
47,188
47,875
48,402
739
598
618
660
603
2,996
2,235
2,380
2,560
2,524
7,272
6,678
5,869
5,885
6,236
6,731
7,440
7,623
6,772
5,937
5,840
6,703
6,682
7,460
7,630
5,421
5,663
6,478
6,633
6,636
8,515
7,948
7,672
7,920
8,819
2,690
2,449
2,559
2,399
2,307
3,976
4,347
4,199
4,222
4,212
1,816
2,249
2,501
2,626
2,629
416
362
435
529
601
..
149
172
210
269
11,648
10,285
9,583
9,658
9,966
27,127
28,133
28,962
29,390
29,551
7,636
8,403
8,643
8,827
8,885
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
48,523
48,658
48,836
48,997
49,181
614
598
592
574
557
2,472
2,452
2,426
2,404
2,362
6,311
6,360
6,397
6,375
6,349
5,840
5,785
5,813
5,866
6,000
7,567
7,458
7,316
7,183
7,031
6,769
6,914
7,069
7,234
7,366
8,907
8,994
9,086
9,181
9,304
2,319
2,352
2,388
2,408
2,391
4,166
4,134
4,107
4,100
4,106
2,671
2,696
2,709
2,722
2,758
609
622
632
640
638
278
292
300
309
319
9,977
9,998
10,015
9,976
9,900
29,642
29,719
29,859
30,024
30,243
8,904
8,940
8,963
8,997
9,038
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
22,569
22,728
22,795
22,949
23,291
23,527
380
283
306
317
336
309
1,537
1,280
1,147
1,219
1,307
1,294
3,734
3,858
3,430
3,010
3,011
3,185
3,421
3,413
3,790
3,862
3,439
2,974
2,965
3,339
3,377
3,357
3,721
3,783
2,733
2,686
2,856
3,249
3,311
3,302
4,161
4,031
3,938
3,822
3,957
4,390
1,261
1,228
1,154
1,224
1,159
1,132
1,671
1,849
1,902
1,853
1,900
1,930
599
649
777
897
970
1,002
107
85
89
108
141
172
25
27
30
33
39
55
5,982
5,798
5,280
4,911
4,938
5,093
14,209
14,320
14,717
15,147
15,302
15,275
2,377
2,610
2,798
2,891
3,050
3,159
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
23,586
23,650
23,748
23,835
23,951
315
306
303
294
285
1,268
1,257
1,244
1,231
1,210
3,226
3,253
3,274
3,265
3,252
2,920
2,892
2,912
2,950
3,030
3,742
3,678
3,599
3,525
3,451
3,366
3,435
3,509
3,585
3,647
4,428
4,467
4,509
4,551
4,611
1,139
1,156
1,174
1,182
1,174
1,919
1,914
1,910
1,913
1,924
1,028
1,047
1,061
1,076
1,101
177
183
188
192
194
58
62
66
69
72
5,103
5,116
5,128
5,109
5,071
15,301
15,328
15,396
15,475
15,588
3,182
3,206
3,225
3,251
3,291
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
23,843
23,932
24,026
24,239
24,584
24,875
359
269
292
301
324
293
1,459
1,211
1,088
1,161
1,253
1,230
3,538
3,656
3,248
2,859
2,873
3,052
3,310
3,275
3,650
3,761
3,333
2,963
2,875
3,260
3,327
3,325
3,739
3,848
2,688
2,612
2,807
3,229
3,322
3,334
4,354
4,168
4,009
3,850
3,964
4,430
1,429
1,387
1,295
1,335
1,239
1,175
2,305
2,425
2,445
2,346
2,323
2,282
1,217
1,323
1,472
1,604
1,656
1,626
309
246
273
326
388
429
85
100
119
140
171
214
5,666
5,495
5,004
4,672
4,720
4,873
12,918
14,968
13,416
13,815
14,088
14,276
5,259
5,481
5,605
5,752
5,777
5,726
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
24,937
25,007
25,088
25,163
25,231
300
292
288
280
273
1,203
1,195
1,183
1,173
1,152
3,085
3,107
3,124
3,110
3,097
2,920
2,893
2,901
2,917
2,970
3,825
3,780
3,718
3,658
3,580
3,403
3,480
3,560
3,649
3,719
4,479
4,527
4,576
4,630
4,693
1,180
1,196
1,214
1,226
1,217
2,247
2,221
2,198
2,187
2,182
1,643
1,649
1,648
1,646
1,657
432
439
444
448
444
220
230
235
240
247
4,873
4,882
4,888
4,866
4,829
14,341
14,391
14,463
14,550
14,655
5,722
5,734
5,738
5,746
5,747
Wales
Persons
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,811
2,873
2,887
43
33
36
37
38
34
173
151
136
143
153
146
433
453
407
357
363
380
386
388
434
438
393
351
325
379
383
369
402
408
315
309
333
378
389
379
519
509
485
464
486
540
164
161
158
166
154
147
252
267
272
271
284
279
110
121
139
154
164
170
16
19
21
26
32
37
6
7
8
10
13
17
686
680
626
578
589
596
1,582
1,618
1,663
1,686
1,711
1,713
472
501
525
547
573
578
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2,890
2,893
2,894
2,900
2,903
35
34
33
32
32
142
141
139
138
135
383
385
385
383
381
344
341
344
349
355
404
397
386
375
362
384
389
395
403
408
546
553
558
564
571
148
149
151
152
153
274
271
267
265
264
174
176
178
180
183
38
38
38
39
39
17
18
19
19
20
595
596
594
591
587
1,715
1,717
1,720
1,728
1,733
579
580
579
581
583
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
1,329
1,361
1,365
1,362
1,391
1,398
22
17
18
19
20
17
89
78
70
73
78
74
222
233
209
184
186
194
194
197
221
221
199
177
164
193
193
186
199
202
158
157
168
190
194
187
253
249
240
231
242
269
76
75
73
79
74
72
107
114
118
119
128
128
38
41
48
54
60
64
6
5
5
7
8
10
1
2
2
2
2
3
352
350
321
297
302
304
827
849
871
885
891
887
150
162
173
181
198
206
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
1,400
1,402
1,403
1,403
1,404
18
17
17
16
16
73
72
71
71
69
196
197
198
196
196
173
172
173
175
178
200
196
190
183
176
189
192
194
197
200
271
274
277
279
282
72
73
74
75
75
126
125
124
124
124
66
68
69
70
72
10
11
11
12
12
4
4
4
4
4
305
305
305
303
301
888
889
890
891
891
207
208
208
210
212
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
1,412
1,438
1,448
1,449
1,482
1,490
21
16
18
18
19
16
85
73
66
70
75
71
211
220
199
173
177
186
191
191
213
217
194
174
161
187
190
184
203
206
157
153
165
188
195
192
265
260
246
233
244
272
88
86
85
87
80
75
146
152
154
152
156
151
73
80
91
100
104
106
16
14
16
20
24
27
4
6
6
8
10
13
335
330
305
282
288
292
755
770
791
801
820
825
322
339
352
366
375
373
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
1,490
1,491
1,491
1,497
1,499
17
17
16
15
15
69
69
68
67
66
187
188
188
187
185
171
169
171
174
177
204
201
196
192
187
195
198
201
205
209
275
278
281
285
289
76
76
77
77
78
148
146
144
142
140
108
109
109
109
110
27
27
27
28
27
14
14
15
15
15
291
291
289
288
286
827
828
831
838
842
372
372
371
371
371
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
National Statistics
44
Population Trends 111
Table 1.4
continued
Spring 2003
Population: age and sex
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Age group
Mid-year
All ages
Under 1
1–4
5–14
15–24
25–34
35–44
45–59
60–64
65–74
75–84
85–89
90 and
over
Under
16
16–
64/59
65/60
and over
Scotland
Persons
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
5,236
5,233
5,180
5,112
5,083
5,092
86
67
69
66
66
59
358
291
249
257
258
252
912
904
780
656
634
643
781
806
875
863
746
651
617
692
724
739
795
798
612
591
603
665
696
722
926
897
880
849
853
925
294
282
260
273
265
259
430
460
460
435
441
448
183
202
232
252
259
256
29
31
35
42
51
57
9
11
14
15
19
24
1,440
1,352
1,188
1,061
1,021
1,019
2,986
3,023
3,110
3,161
3,151
3,151
810
858
882
890
912
922
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
5,083
5,077
5,072
5,063
5,064
60
58
56
53
52
243
239
234
230
224
644
644
643
636
629
637
628
625
628
633
785
766
743
717
696
736
749
762
774
782
932
941
951
962
979
258
261
262
263
262
446
445
444
445
447
260
262
265
267
272
58
59
59
59
59
25
26
27
28
29
1,010
1,003
995
985
970
3,148
3,145
3,144
3,141
3,150
925
929
933
937
944
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2,516
2,517
2,495
2,462
2,445
2,447
44
34
35
34
34
30
184
149
128
131
132
128
467
463
400
336
324
328
394
408
445
438
377
327
306
347
364
371
394
392
299
290
298
331
345
355
440
429
424
410
415
454
134
128
118
127
124
122
176
193
194
184
192
198
60
65
77
86
91
93
8
8
8
10
13
15
2
2
3
3
3
5
738
693
610
543
522
521
1,530
1,556
1,603
1,636
1,623
1,616
247
269
282
283
437
310
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2,442
2,439
2,437
2,432
2,434
31
30
29
28
26
124
122
120
118
115
329
329
329
326
322
320
315
313
315
319
384
374
362
347
337
362
367
372
377
379
458
463
469
474
483
122
124
125
125
125
197
198
198
199
200
95
96
98
100
103
16
16
16
17
17
5
5
6
6
6
516
513
510
505
497
1,613
1,610
1,609
2,012
1,610
313
316
318
322
327
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2,720
2,716
2,685
2,649
2,639
2,645
42
32
33
32
32
28
174
142
121
126
126
123
445
440
380
320
309
315
387
398
430
424
369
324
311
345
359
368
402
406
313
301
305
334
351
367
485
468
456
439
437
470
160
154
142
146
141
137
254
267
265
250
249
250
122
137
155
166
168
164
20
23
27
32
38
42
7
8
11
12
16
20
701
659
579
518
499
498
1,455
1,468
1,506
1,525
1,528
1,535
563
589
600
606
612
612
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2,641
2,638
2,635
2,631
2,630
29
28
27
26
26
119
116
114
112
109
315
315
314
310
307
318
313
312
313
314
401
392
381
369
359
374
382
390
397
403
473
478
483
488
496
136
137
138
138
137
249
248
246
246
246
165
166
166
166
169
42
43
43
43
43
20
21
22
22
23
494
490
486
480
473
1,535
1,535
1,535
1,535
1,540
612
614
614
616
617
Northern Ireland
Persons
1971
1,540
1976
1,524
1981
1,543
1986
1,574
1991
1,607
1996
1,662
31
26
27
28
26
24
126
111
106
107
106
99
299
306
282
261
260
266
247
243
271
277
256
244
189
198
200
217
240
257
165
163
175
190
200
220
243
231
227
227
241
266
74
73
68
71
70
70
106
111
116
115
120
123
51
53
57
64
69
72
7
8
..
16
14
15
2
2
..
..
6
7
483
471
444
423
417
415
853
840
874
917
945
993
205
212
224
234
246
253
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
1,671
1,678
1,679
1,683
1,689
24
24
23
22
22
97
97
96
95
93
266
264
262
259
255
242
239
237
237
240
258
257
252
247
243
226
231
237
243
248
270
275
279
284
290
71
71
73
73
74
122
122
122
123
123
73
74
75
75
77
16
16
16
16
16
7
7
7
7
7
413
411
408
403
397
1,003
1,010
1,014
1,020
1,030
255
257
258
259
262
Males
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
755
754
757
768
783
810
16
13
14
14
13
12
64
58
54
55
54
51
152
157
145
134
133
136
127
127
140
142
131
124
95
102
102
109
119
128
81
81
87
95
100
109
116
111
109
110
118
131
36
34
32
33
32
33
45
47
50
50
53
54
19
19
21
23
26
27
2
3
..
4
4
4
1
0
..
..
1
1
246
242
228
217
213
212
441
442
454
474
487
511
67
70
75
77
83
87
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
816
819
818
820
824
12
12
12
11
11
50
50
49
49
48
136
135
134
133
131
123
121
119
120
122
129
128
125
122
120
112
114
117
119
122
133
135
138
141
144
34
34
35
35
35
54
54
54
55
56
28
28
29
29
30
4
5
5
5
5
1
2
2
2
2
211
211
209
207
204
516
520
521
524
529
88
89
89
90
92
Females
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
786
769
786
805
824
851
15
13
13
13
13
11
62
53
52
52
52
49
147
149
137
127
127
130
119
116
130
135
125
120
95
96
98
107
121
129
84
81
88
96
100
110
126
120
118
118
123
135
39
38
37
38
38
37
61
64
66
65
67
69
32
33
37
41
44
45
5
6
..
12
10
11
2
2
..
..
4
6
237
229
216
206
203
203
411
398
420
442
458
482
138
143
150
157
163
167
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
856
859
861
862
865
12
12
11
11
10
47
47
47
46
45
130
129
128
126
124
119
118
117
118
119
129
129
127
125
123
114
117
120
124
126
137
139
141
143
146
37
37
38
38
38
68
68
68
68
68
45
46
46
46
47
11
11
11
11
11
6
6
6
6
6
202
201
199
196
193
486
490
493
497
501
167
168
169
169
170
See notes opposite.
45
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Table 1.5
Spring 2003
Population: age, sex and legal marital status
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands)
Total
population
Mid-year
Males
Single
Married
Divorced
Females
Widowed
Total
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Total
Aged
16 and over
1971
1976
1981
19862
19912
36,818
37,486
38,724
39,887
40,796
4,173
4,369
5,013
5,673
6,024
12,522
12,511
12,238
11,886
11,745
187
376
611
919
1,200
682
686
698
695
731
17,563
17,941
18,559
19,173
19,699
3,583
3,597
4,114
4,613
4,822
12,566
12,538
12,284
11,994
11,838
296
533
828
1,164
1,459
2,810
2,877
2,939
2,943
2,978
19,255
19,545
20,165
20,714
21,097
19942
19952
19962
19972
19982
41,003
41,167
41,356
41,540
41,746
6,221
6,345
6,482
6,622
6,768
11,492
11,415
11,339
11,256
11,185
1,413
1,480
1,543
1,604
1,659
730
729
728
726
725
19,855
19,968
20,091
20,209
20,338
4,958
5,058
5,171
5,292
5,415
11,583
11,488
11,406
11,319
11,244
1,684
1,754
1,819
1,882
1,940
2,922
2,898
2,870
2,838
2,808
21,147
21,199
21,265
21,331
21,408
19992
20002
41,996
42,275
6,936
7,109
11,128
11,074
1,716
1,770
721
718
20,501
20,672
5,539
5,667
11,185
11,136
2,001
2,063
2,771
2,737
21,495
21,604
16–19
1971
1976
1981
19862
19912
2,666
2,901
3,310
3,144
2,680
1,327
1,454
1,675
1,601
1,372
34
28
20
10
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,362
1,482
1,694
1,611
1,380
1,163
1,289
1,523
1,483
1,267
142
129
93
49
32
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,305
1,419
1,616
1,533
1,300
19942
19952
19962
19972
19982
2,360
2,374
2,436
2,517
2,578
1,212
1,220
1,251
1,291
1,322
3
3
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,215
1,222
1,253
1,293
1,324
1,131
1,139
1,171
1,212
1,242
14
13
12
11
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,145
1,152
1,183
1,224
1,254
19992
20002
2,595
2,571
1,332
1,322
2
2
0
0
0
0
1,334
1,324
1,250
1,237
11
9
0
0
0
0
1,261
1,246
20–24
1971
1976
1981
19862
19912
3,773
3,395
3,744
4,203
3,966
1,211
1,167
1,420
1,794
1,764
689
557
466
322
249
3
4
10
14
12
0
0
1
0
0
1,904
1,728
1,896
2,130
2,025
745
725
1,007
1,382
1,421
1,113
925
811
658
490
9
16
27
32
29
2
2
2
1
1
1,869
1,667
1,847
2,072
1,941
19942
19952
19962
19972
19982
3,625
3,495
3,329
3,177
3,084
1,699
1,658
1,597
1,536
1,500
152
127
105
87
76
7
6
5
4
3
0
0
0
0
0
1,858
1,791
1,707
1,628
1,579
1,416
1,404
1,369
1,333
1,314
330
282
238
204
180
20
17
15
12
10
1
0
0
0
0
1,767
1,703
1,622
1,549
1,505
19992
20002
3,085
3,132
1,511
1,541
68
63
3
2
0
0
1,582
1,606
1,328
1,363
165
154
9
8
0
0
1,503
1,525
25–29
1971
1976
1981
19862
19912
3,267
3,758
3,372
3,724
4,246
431
533
588
841
1,183
1,206
1,326
1,057
956
894
16
39
54
79
85
1
2
1
1
1
1,654
1,900
1,700
1,877
2,163
215
267
331
527
800
1,367
1,522
1,247
1,204
1,158
29
65
89
113
123
4
5
4
4
2
1,614
1,859
1,671
1,847
2,083
19942
19952
19962
19972
19982
4,168
4,094
4,045
3,972
3,883
1,293
1,326
1,368
1,401
1,422
754
696
639
577
520
76
70
64
58
51
1
1
1
1
0
2,124
2,092
2,071
2,037
1,994
908
936
977
1,014
1,047
1,011
947
887
818
750
122
116
109
101
91
2
2
2
2
2
2,044
2,002
1,975
1,935
1,889
19992
20001,2
3,774
3,685
1,426
1,429
469
426
45
39
0
0
1,941
1,895
1,062
1,080
686
632
84
75
2
2
1,833
1,790
Note: Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
Population estimates by marital status for 1971 and 1976 are based on the 1971 Census; those for 1981 and 1986 are based on the 1981 Census and have not been rebased using
the 1991 Census. Estimates for 1991 onwards are based on the 1991 Census.
1.
There was an error in the mid-2000 marital status estimates by gender that were published in this table in Population Trends 106. The error was due to the incorrect use of deaths data
by gender in the processing. Total populations including totals by gender and the estimates of the number of single and divorced people are not affected by the error. There is an
apparent difference in single females aged 25–29 but this is small and is purely due to rounding of the recompiled estimates by marital status.The figures supplied in this table are now
correct.––
2.
These are original marital status estimates; rebased marital status estimates will not be available until Summer 2003, (See ‘in brief’).
See Notes to tables on page 66.
National Statistics
46
Population Trends 111
Table 1.5
continued
Spring 2003
Population: age, sex and legal marital status
England and Wales
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands)
Total
population
Mid-year
Males
Single
Married
Divorced
Females
Widowed
Total
Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Total
30–34
1971
1976
1981
19862
19912
2,897
3,220
3,715
3,341
3,762
206
236
318
356
535
1,244
1,338
1,451
1,200
1,206
23
55
97
125
160
3
3
3
2
2
1,475
1,632
1,869
1,683
1,903
111
118
165
206
335
1,269
1,388
1,544
1,292
1,330
34
75
129
154
189
8
8
9
6
5
1,422
1,588
1,846
1,658
1,859
19942
19952
19962
19972
19982
4,126
4,235
4,296
4,318
4,294
732
799
855
903
938
1,187
1,177
1,155
1,125
1,085
179
182
181
177
171
2
2
2
3
3
2,100
2,160
2,194
2,207
2,196
467
518
560
598
627
1,340
1,333
1,316
1,287
1,247
213
218
221
222
219
5
5
5
5
5
2,025
2,075
2,103
2,111
2,098
19992
20002
4,260
4,211
976
1,016
1,041
993
163
153
2
2
2,182
2,164
652
675
1,205
1,158
216
209
5
5
2,078
2,047
35–44
1971
1976
1981
19862
19912
5,736
5,608
5,996
6,863
7,056
317
286
316
397
482
2,513
2,442
2,519
2,743
2,658
48
104
178
293
388
13
12
12
12
12
2,891
2,843
3,024
3,444
3,539
201
167
170
213
280
2,529
2,427
2,540
2,816
2,760
66
129
222
350
444
48
42
41
39
34
2,845
2,765
2,972
3,419
3,517
19942
19952
19962
19972
19982
6,925
7,003
7,146
7,325
7,515
556
601
657
725
802
2,463
2,446
2,449
2,458
2,467
444
464
483
503
520
12
12
13
13
14
3,475
3,523
3,602
3,700
3,803
343
374
414
459
510
2,587
2,568
2,575
2,593
2,612
491
509
527
545
563
29
29
28
28
27
3,449
3,480
3,544
3,625
3,712
19992
20002
7,734
7,970
890
981
2,483
2,503
537
552
14
14
3,923
4,050
570
635
2,634
2,659
579
600
27
27
3,811
3,920
45–64
1971
1976
1981
19862
19912
11,887
11,484
11,040
10,860
10,960
502
496
480
461
456
4,995
4,787
4,560
4,423
4,394
81
141
218
332
456
173
160
147
141
127
5,751
5,583
5,405
5,356
5,433
569
462
386
326
292
4,709
4,568
4,358
4,221
4,211
125
188
271
388
521
733
683
620
569
503
6,136
5,901
5,635
5,504
5,527
19942
19952
19962
19972
19982
11,596
11,730
11,844
11,959
12,103
489
500
512
524
541
4,564
4,581
4,587
4,590
4,604
587
630
673
715
758
120
119
118
117
117
5,759
5,830
5,890
5,946
6,019
300
305
310
318
328
4,422
4,452
4,473
4,494
4,523
659
703
746
789
832
456
440
425
412
401
5,837
5,900
5,954
6,013
6,085
19992
20002
12,259
12,398
560
579
4,618
4,621
802
846
117
117
6,097
6,164
340
353
4,554
4,577
875
920
392
384
6,162
6,234
65 and over
1971
1976
1981
19862
19912
6,592
7,119
7,548
7,752
8,127
179
197
216
223
231
1,840
2,033
2,167
2,233
2,337
17
33
54
76
99
492
510
534
539
589
2,527
2,773
2,971
3,070
3,257
580
569
533
475
427
1,437
1,579
1,692
1,754
1,858
32
60
90
127
153
2,016
2,138
2,263
2,325
2,433
4,065
4,347
4,578
4,681
4,870
19942
19952
19962
19972
19982
8,203
8,237
8,259
8,272
8,288
239
241
242
242
242
2,368
2,385
2,401
2,417
2,432
121
128
137
147
156
595
595
594
593
592
3,323
3,349
3,375
3,399
3,422
393
382
370
358
347
1,879
1,893
1,904
1,912
1,921
179
190
201
213
225
2,429
2,422
2,410
2,390
2,372
4,880
4,887
4,884
4,873
4,866
19992
20002
8,288
8,308
241
240
2,446
2,466
166
177
587
585
3,441
3,468
336
324
1,930
1,948
237
251
2,344
2,318
4,847
4,841
See notes opposite.
47
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Table 1.6
Spring 2003
Components of population change
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Mid-year to mid-year
Population at
start of period
Numbers (thousands)
Total
annual
change2
Components of change (mid-year to mid-year or annual averages)
Live
births
Deaths
Natural
change
(Live births –
deaths)
Total 1
Net civilian migration
To/from
To/from
rest of UK Irish Republic
Population at end
of period
To/from
rest of the
world
Other
changes
}
55,928
56,216
56,357
56,684
+ 58
+ 27
+ 65
+148
766
705
733
782
670
662
662
647
+ 96
+ 42
+ 70
+135
–
–
–
+
55
33
5
13
–
–
–
–
– 55
– 33
..
..
+ 16
+ 18
..
..
56,216
56,352
56,684
57,439
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
57,928
58.043
58,167
58,305
58,481
58,643
+115
+124
+138
+176
+162
+195
722
740
718
713
688
674
645
637
617
634
626
599
+ 77
+103
+100
+ 77
+ 62
+ 74
+ 38
+ 21
+ 38
+ 99
+100
+121
–
–
–
–
–
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
58,043
58,167
58,305
58,481
58,643
58,838
England and Wales
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
49,152
49,459
49,634
49,999
+ 61
+ 35
+ 73
+150
644
612
639
689
588
582
582
569
+ 76
+ 30
+ 57
+120
–
–
+
+
28
9
16
30
+10
+11
..
..
– 9
– 3
..
..
– 29
– 17
..
..
+ 13
+ 14
..
..
49,459
49,634
49,999
50,748
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
51,175
51,289
51,413
51,550
51,730
51,897
+114
+124
+138
+180
+167
+187
640
655
636
630
612
599
569
562
544
558
550
528
+
+
+
+
+
+
71
93
92
72
61
71
+ 43
+ 30
+ 46
+107
+106
+116
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
51,289
51,413
51.550
51.730
51,897
52,084
England
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
46,412
46,660
46,821
47,188
+ 50
+ 32
+ 73
+137
627
577
603
651
552
546
547
535
+ 75
+ 31
+ 56
+116
– 35
– 11
+ 18
+ 21
+ 1
+ 6
..
..
– 9
– 3
..
..
– 27
– 15
..
..
+ 10
+ 12
..
..
46,660
46,821
47,188
47,875
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
48,290
48,402
48,523
48,658
48,836
48,997
+112
+121
+135
+179
+161
+184
606
620
602
598
580
568
533
527
510
523
516
495
+
+
+
+
+
+
73
93
92
74
64
73
+ 40
+ 28
+ 43
+104
+ 97
+ 111
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
48,402
48,523
48,658
48,836
48,997
49,181
3
2
..
..
2,799
2,813
2,811
2,873
..
..
..
..
–
..
2,887
2,890
2,893
2,894
2,900
2,903
4
4
1
..
5,233
5,180
5,112
5,083
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
5,092
5,083
5,077
5,072
5,063
5,064
7
3
1
1
– 1
+ 17
–
–
1,524
1,543
1,574
1,607
}
United Kingdom
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
2,740
2,799
2,813
2,811
+
+
–
+
12
3
1
12
37
35
36
38
36
36
35
34
+
–
+
+
1
1
1
4
+
+
–
+
7
2
1
8
+10
+ 5
..
..
..
..
..
..
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
2,885
2,887
2,890
2,893
2,894
2,900
+
+
+
+
+
+
2
3
3
1
6
3
34
35
34
33
31
31
35
35
34
35
34
33
–
–
–
–
1
–
–
2
3
2
+
+
+
+
+
+
3
2
3
3
9
5
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
Scotland2
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
5,236
5,233
5,180
5,112
–
– 11
– 14
– 6
73
66
66
66
64
64
64
62
+
+
+
+
9
2
2
3
– 14
– 16
– 16
– 9
– 4
– 7
– 7
..
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
1998–99
1999–2000
2000–01
5,104
5,092
5,083
5,077
5,072
5,063
–
–
–
–
–
+
12
9
6
5
9
1
59
60
58
57
54
53
61
60
59
60
60
57
–
–
–
–
–
2
–
1
4
6
4
–
–
–
–
–
+
Northern Ireland 3
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
1,540
1,524
1,543
1,574
–
+
+
+
3
3
6
7
28
27
28
27
17
17
16
16
+
+
+
+
11
10
12
12
–
–
2
2
..
..
+
+
..
..
..
..
..
..
}
Wales
1971–76
1976–81
1981–86
1986–91
9
9
6
1
3
5
– 14
– 8
– 5
– 5
–
–
–
..
..
..
..
..
..
–
–
–
–
7
4
3
3
–
–
–
–
10
10
7
..
+
+
+
}
1995–96
1,649
+ 13
24
15
+ 8
+ 4
..
..
–
1,662
1996–97
1,662
+ 10
25
15
+ 10
–
..
..
–
1,671
1997–98
1,671
+ 7
24
15
+ 9
– 2
..
..
–
1,678
1998–99
1,678
+ 1
23
15
+ 8
– 7
..
..
–
1,679
1999–2000
1,679
+ 4
22
16
+ 7
– 3
..
..
–
1,683
2000–01
1,683
+ 6
22
14
+ 7
– 1
..
..
–
1,689
1
For UK, England, Wales and Scotland, this column is not an estimate of net civilian migration. It has been derived by subtraction using revised population estimates and natural change.
2
Components of population change shown here for Scotland 1994–2000 are the existing pre 2001 census estimates. These are not consistent with the final row showing population change
between 2000 and 2001 based on the results of the 2001 Census. The earlier years are subject to revision in 2003.
3
Population estimates for Northern Ireland have been rebased to take account of the 2001 Census.
National Statistics
48
Population Trends 111
Table 2.1
Spring 2003
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Year and
quarter
All live
births
Number
Numbers (thousands) and rates
Live births
outside marriage
Rate 1
Marriages
Number
Rate2
Number
Rate3
Divorces
Deaths
Number
Rate 4
Number
Rate1
Infant
mortality5
Number
Neonatal
mortality6
Rate 2
Number
Perinatal
mortality7
Rate2
Number
Rate 8
United Kingdom
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
675.5
730.7
754.8
792.3
733.2
12.0
13.0
13.3
13.8
12.6
61.1
91.3
154.3
236.1
260.4
90
125
204
298
355
406.0
397.8
393.9
349.7
317.5
..
49.4
..
..
..
135.4
156.4
168.2
173.5
171.7
..
11.3
..
..
..
680.8
658.0
660.7
646.2
636.0
12.1
11.7
11.7
11.2
11.0
9.79
8.16
7.18
5.82
4.50
14.5
11.2
9.5
7.4
6.1
6.68
4.93
4.00
3.46
3.00
9.9
6.7
5.3
4.4
4.1
12.3
8.79
7.31
6.45
6.41
18.0
12.0
9.6
8.1
8.7
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
726.6
716.9
700.0
679.0
669.1p
12.5
12.3
12.0
11.6
11.4p
267.0
269.7
271.6
268.1
268.0p
368
376
388
395
401p
310.2
304.8
301.1
305.9
286.1
..
..
..
..
..
161.1
160.1
158.7
154.6
156.8P
..
..
..
..
..
629.7
629.2
632.1
608.4
602.3
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.4
10.2
4.25
4.08
4.05
3.79
3.66
5.9
5.7
5.8
5.6
5.5
2.81
2.72
2.73
2.63
2.43
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.6
6.06
5.94
5.79
5.56
5.39
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.1
8.0
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
164.9
167.0
171.7
165.6
11.4
11.4p
11.6p
11.2p
p
65.9p
65.2p
69.2p
67.7p
400p
391p
403p
409p
33.0p
81.1p
120.4 p
51.6p
..
..
..
..
39.3P
39.3P
38.5P
39.7P
..
..
..
..
165.0
145.6
138.8
152.9
11.3
10.0
9.4
10.3
0.98
0.86
0.90
0.93
5.9
5.1
5.3
5.6
0.64
0.58
0.62
0.60
3.9
3.5
3.6
3.6
1.38
1.33
1.31
1.37
8.3
7.9
7.6
8.2
2002 March
June
Sept
161.0
p
165.2
173.6P
11.1p
11.3p
11.7P
65.3p
65.5p
71.0P
406p
396p
403P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
164.0 p
146.3 P
141.1 P
11.3p
10.0P
9.5P
0.89p
0.89P
0.84P
5.5p
5.4P
4.8P
0.58p
0.60P
0.57P
3.6p
3.6P
3.3P
1.35p
1.40P
1.40P
8.4p
8.4P
7.9P
England and Wales
1976
584.3
1981
634.5
1986
661.0
1991
699.2
1996
649.5
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.8
12.7
53.8
81.0
141.3
211.3
232.7
92
128
214
302
358
358.6
352.0
347.9
306.8
279.0
57.7
49.6
43.5
35.6
30.0
126.7
145.7
153.9
158.7
157.1
10.1
11.9
12.9
13.5
13.8
598.5
577.9
581.2
570.0
560.1
12.1
11.6
11.6
11.2
10.9
8.34
7.02
6.31
5.16
3.99
14.3
11.1
9.6
7.4
6.1
5.66
4.23
3.49
3.05
2.68
9.7
6.7
5.3
4.4
4.1
10.5
7.56
6.37
5.65
5.62
17.7
11.8
9.6
8.0
8.6
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
643.1
635.9
621.9
604.4
594.6
12.5
12.3
12.0
11.6
11.4
238.2
240.6
241.9
238.6
238.1
370
378
389
395
400
272.5
267.3
263.5
268.0
249.2 p
28.7
27.7
26.8
26.7
24.8p
146.7
145.2
144.6
141.1
143.8P
13.0
12.9
13.0
12.7
13.0P
555.3
555.0
556.1
535.7
530.4
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.3
10.2
3.80
3.63
3.62
3.38
3.24
5.9
5.7
5.8
5.6
5.4
2.52
2.42
2.44
2.34
2.14
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.6
5.38
5.26
5.14
4.96
4.75
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.0
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
145.5
148.8
153.0
147.4
11.3
11.5
11.7
11.2
58.0
58.1
61.8
60.2
398
391
404
409
28.8
70.9p
105.3 p
44.2p
p
11.7p
28.3p
41.7p
17.5p
36.1p
36.0p
35.4p
36.3p
13.2p
13.0p
12.7p
13.0p
145.1
128.3
122.2
134.8
11.2
9.9
9.3
10.3
0.85
0.75
0.82
0.83
5.8
5.0
5.3
5.6
0.54
0.50
0.56
0.54
3.7
3.4
3.6
3.6
1.19
1.18
1.17
1.21
8.2
7.9
7.6
8.2
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
143.3p
147.2p
155.0p
..
11.2p
11.3p
11.8p
..
58.0p
58.3p
63.4p
..
405p
396p
409p
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
35.8P
37.3P
37.9P
p
33.6
13.1P
13.5P
13.5P
12.0p
144.8 p
128.7 p
124.0 P
..
11.3p
9.9p
9.4P
..
0.81p
0.78p
0.75P
..
5.7p
5.3p
4.8P
..
0.54p
0.54p
0.51P
..
3.8p
3.6p
3.3P
..
1.23p
1.25p
1.23P
..
8.5p
8.4p
7.9P
..
England
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
550.4
598.2
623.6
660.8
614.2
11.8
12.8
13.2
13.7
12.5
50.8
76.9
133.5
198.9
218.2
92
129
214
301
355
339.0
332.2
328.4
290.1
264.2
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
146.0
150.1
148.7
..
..
..
..
..
560.3
541.0
544.5
534.0
524.0
12.0
11.6
11.6
11.2
10.8
7.83
6.50
5.92
4.86
3.74
14.2
10.9
9.5
7.3
6.1
5.32
3.93
3.27
2.87
2.53
9.7
6.6
5.2
4.3
4.1
9.81
7.04
5.98
5.33
5.36
17.6
11.7
9.5
8.0
8.7
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
608.2
602.1
589.5
572.8
563.7
12.3
12.2
11.8
11.7
11.5
223.4
225.7
226.7
223.8
223.3
367
375
385
391
396
258.0
253.1
249.5
253.8
236.2 p
..
..
..
..
..
138.7
137.3
137.0
133.9
136.4P
..
..
..
..
..
519.1
519.6
519.6
501.0
496.1
10.7
10.7
10.6
10.2
10.1
3.60
3.39
3.38
3.18
3.04
5.9
5.6
5.7
5.6
5.4
2.37
2.29
2.29
2.21
2.02
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.6
5.09
4.97
4.86
4.69
4.51
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.0
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
137.8
141.1
145.1
139.6
11.4
11.5
11.7
11.3
54.3
54.5
58.0
56.4
394
386
400
404
27.5
p
67.1
99.6p
42.0p
p
..
..
..
..
34.2p
34.2p
33.6p
34.5p
..
..
..
..
135.7
119.9
114.2
126.2
11.1
9.3
8.7
9.6
0.79
0.72
0.76
0.77
5.7
5.1
5.3
5.5
0.51
0.48
0.53
0.50
3.7
3.4
3.6
3.6
1.13
1.12
1.12
1.15
8.1
7.9
7.6
8.2
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
135.9p
139.8p
147.1p
..
11.2P
11.4p
11.7p
..
54.3p
54.7p
59.4p
..
400p
391p
404P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
34.0P
35.4P
36.0P
32.0p
..
..
..
..
135.6 p
120.4 p
115.8 P
..
11.2p
9.8p
9.3P
..
0.77p
0.74p
0.70P
..
5.7p
5.3p
4.8P
..
0.52p
0.51p
0.47P
..
3.8p
3.7p
3.2P
..
1.18p
1.19p
1.15P
..
8.6p
8.5p
7.8P
..
p
Notes: Quarters for 2002 are based on the mid-2001 population estimate.
Rates for the most recent quarters will be particularly subject to revision, even
when standard detail is given, as they are based on provisional numbers or on
estimates derived from events registered in the period.
Figures for England and Wales represent the numbers of deaths registered in each
year up to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993.
Rates are based on original marital status estimates; rebased marital estimates will be
available in mid 2003
Provisional figures are registrations.
From 1972 figures for England and figures for Wales each exclude events for persons usually
resident outside England and Wales.These events are however included in the totals for
England and Wales combined, and for the United Kingdom.
From 1981 births to non-resident mothers in Northern Ireland are excluded from the
figures for Northern Ireland, and for the United Kingdom.
Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.
See Notes to tables on page 66.
49
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Table 2.1
continued
Spring 2003
Vital statistics summary
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Year and
quarter
All live
births
Numbers (thousands) and rates
Live births
outside marriage
Marriages
Divorces
Number
Rate 1
Number
Rate2
Number
Rate 3
Wales
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
33.4
35.8
37.0
38.1
34.9
11.9
12.7
13.1
13.3
11.9
2.9
4.0
7.8
12.3
14.4
86
112
211
323
412
19.5
19.8
19.5
16.6
14.8
..
..
..
..
..
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
34.5
33.4
32.1
31.3
30.6
11.8
11.4
10.9
10.8
10.5
14.8
14.8
14.8
14.8
14.8
428
444
461
472
483
14.6
14.2
14.0
14.1
..
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
7.7
7.5
7.7
7.7
10.8
10.4
10.6
10.5
3.7
3.6
3.7
3.8
477
473
481
499
2002 March
June
Sept
Dec
7.3p
7.4p
7.9p
..
10.2p
10.2p
10.7p
..
3.6 p
3.5 p
4.0 p
..
Scotland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
64.9
69.1
65.8
67.0
59.3
12.5
13.4
12.9
13.2
11.6
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
59.4
57.3
55.1
53.1
52.5
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
13.5
12.9
13.2
12.9
2002 March
June
Sept
Deaths
..
..
7.9
8.6
8.4
..
..
..
..
..
36.3
35.0
34.7
34.1
34.6
13.0
12.4
12.3
11.9
12.0
0.46
0.45
0.35
0.25
0.20
13.7
12.6
9.5
6.6
5.6
0.32
0.29
0.21
0.16
0.13
9.6
8.1
5.6
4.1
3.6
0.64
0.51
0.38
0.30
0.26
19.0
14.1
10.3
7.9
7.5
..
..
..
..
..
8.0
7.9
7.5
7.2
7.4P
..
..
..
..
..
34.6
34.0
35.0
33.3
33.0
12.0
11.7
12.1
11.5
11.4
0.20
0.19
0.20
0.17
0.16
5.9
5.6
6.1
5.3
5.4
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.11
0.11
3.9
3.6
4.0
3.5
3.5
0.27
0.27
0.25
0.23
0.23
7.9
8.0
7.7
7.2
7.5
1.4
3.8p
5.7p
2.2p
..
..
..
..
1.9p
1.8p
1.8p
1.8p
..
..
..
..
9.1
8.0
7.6
8.3
12.6
11.1
10.4
11.4
0.05
0.03
0.04
0.04
6.5
4.4
5.3
5.2
0.03
0.02
0.03
0.03
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.8
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.06
8.0
7.8
6.7
7.5
491p
481p
504p
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
1.8P
2.0P
1.9P
1.7p
..
..
..
..
8.9p
8.0p
7.9P
..
12.5p
11.0p
10.8P
..
0.03p
0.03p
0.04P
..
4.5p
4.4p
5.4P
..
0.02p
0.02p
0.03P
..
2.6p
2.9p
3.8P
..
0.05p
0.06p
0.07P
..
6.1p
8.0p
8.7P
..
6.0
8.5
13.6
19.5
21.4
93
122
206
291
360
37.5
36.2
35.8
33.8
30.2
53.8
47.5
42.8
38.7
32.8
8.1
9.9
12.8
12.4
12.3
6.5
8.0
10.7
10.6
10.9
65.3
63.8
63.5
61.0
60.7
12.5
12.3
12.4
12.0
11.9
0.96
0.78
0.58
0.47
0.37
14.8
11.3
8.8
7.1
6.2
0.67
0.47
0.34
0.29
0.23
10.3
6.9
5.2
4.6
3.9
1.20
0.81
0.67
0.58
0.55
18.3
11.6
10.2
8.6
9.2
11.7
11.3
10.9
10.5
10.4
22.4
22.3
22.7
22.6
22.8
377
389
412
426
433
29.6
29.7
29.9
30.4
29.6
31.7
31.2
31.1
29.5
28.8P
12.2
12.4
11.9
11.1
10.6
11.0
11.2
10.8
10.3
9.8
59.5
59.2
60.3
57.8
57.4
11.7
11.7
11.9
11.4
11.3
0.32
0.32
0.28
0.31
0.29
5.3
5.5
5.0
5.7
5.5
0.19
0.20
0.18
0.21
0.20
3.2
3.5
3.3
4.0
3.8
0.47
0.49
0.42
0.45
0.45
7.8
8.5
7.6
8.4
8.5
10.8
10.2
10.3
10.1
6.0
5.4
5.6
5.7
445
422
427
439
3.4
8.2
11.9
6.1
13.6
32.7p
46.5p
24.0p
p
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.7
9.9p
9.9p
9.5p
10.1p
15.8
13.8
13.3
14.6
12.5
10.9
10.4
11.4
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
6.4
5.8
4.9
5.0
0.06
0.06
0.04
0.03
4.5
4.7
3.3
2.6
0.13
0.12
0.10
0.11
9.6
8.9
7.3
8.1
12.4
p
12.6
13.2P
9.9p
10.0p
10.4P
5.5 P
5.4 P
5.7 P
448p
430p
431P
3.5p
8.2p
11.9P
13.6p
32.6p
46.8P
2.4p
2.9P
2.6P
9.0p
10.6P
9.5P
15.3p
14.0P
13.6P
12.2p
11.1P
10.6P
0.05p
0.08P
0.07P
4.0p
6.5P
5.2P
0.03p
0.04P
0.05P
2.0p
3.3P
3.7P
0.09p
0.10P
0.10P
7.0p
8.0P
7.3P
Northern Ireland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
26.4
27.2
28.0
26.0
24.4
17.3
17.0
17.8
16.2
14.7
1.3
1.9
3.6
5.3
6.3
50
69
127
203
260
9.9
9.6
10.2
9.2
8.3
..
45.4
..
..
..
0.6
1.4
1.5
2.3
2.3
..
4.2
..
..
..
17.0
16.3
16.1
15.1
15.2
11.2
10.6
10.3
9.4
9.2
0.48
0.36
0.36
0.19
0.14
18.3
13.2
13.2
7.4
5.8
0.35
0.23
0.23
0.12
0.09
13.3
8.3
8.3
4.6
3.7
0.59
0.42
0.42
0.22
0.23
22.3
15.3
15.3
8.4
9.4
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
24.1
23.7
23.0
21.5
22.0
14.4
14.1
13.7
12.8
13.0
6.4
6.7
7.0
6.8
7.1
266
284
303
318
325
8.1
7.8
7.6
7.6
7.3
..
..
..
..
..
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.4
..
..
..
..
..
15.0
15.0
15.7
14.9
14.5
9.0
8.9
9.3
8.9
8.6
0.14
0.13
0.15
0.11
0.13
5.6
5.6
6.4
5.1
6.1
0.10
0.09
0.11
0.82
0.98
4.2
3.9
4.8
3.8
4.5
0.21
0.20
0.23
0.15
0.19
8.6
8.1
10.0
7.3
8.5
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
5.8
5.3
5.6
5.3
13.9
12.7
13.1
12.4
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.8
332
312
317
341
0.8
2.0
3.2
1.3
..
..
..
..
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
..
..
..
..
4.1
3.6
3.3
3.5
9.8
8.5
7.9
8.2
0.05
0.03
0.02
0.03
8.5
5.4
4.0
6.5
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.03
5.9
3.9
2.9
5.1
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.05
9.8
7.4
7.4
9.1
2002 March
June
Sept
5.3p
p
5.3
5.6p
12.8p
12.7p
13.0P
1.8 p
1.8 p
1.9 P
336p
331p
334P
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
3.9p
3.5P
3.5P
9.3p
8.3P
8.3P
0.02p
0.03P
0.02P
4.5p
4.9P
4.1P
0.02p
0.02P
0.02P
3.6p
3.4P
2.9P
0.04p
0.05P
0.05P
7.9p
8.7P
8.6P
p
See notes opposite.
1
Per 1,000 population of all ages.
2
Per 1,000 live births.
3
Persons marrying per 1,000 unmarried population 16 and over.
4
Persons divorcing per 1,000 married population.
5
Deaths under 1 year.
National Statistics
50
p
6
7
8
p
..
Number
Rate2
Perinatal
mortality7
Number
Number
Rate 2
Neonatal
mortality 6
Rate4
Number
Rate 1
Infant
mortality5
Number
Rate8
Deaths under 4 weeks.
Stillbirths and deaths under 1 week. In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth
was changed, from baby born dead after 28 completed weeks of gestation or more, to
one born dead after 24 completed weeks of gestation or more.
Per 1,000 live births and stillbirths.
Provisional.
Figures not available.
Population Trends 111
Table 2.2
Spring 2003
Key demographic and health indicators
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean age
Dependency ratio
Population
Live births
Deaths
Children1
Elderly2
Live births
TFR 3
Expectation of
life (in years)
at birth
Outside
marriage as
percentage
of total
live births
Mean age
of mother
at birth
(years)4
Agestandardised
mortality
rate5
Males
Females
Infant
mortality
rate5
United Kingdom
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
56,216.1
56,357.5
56,683.8
57,438.9
58,043.0
675.5
730.7
754.8
792.3
733.2
680.8
658.0
660.7
646.2
636.0
42.1
37.1
33.5
33.2
33.9
29.5
29.7
29.7
30.0
30.0
1.74
1.82
1.78
1.82
1.73
9.0
12.5
21.4
29.8
35.5
26.4
26.8
27.0
27.7
28.6
10,486
9,506
8,914
8,168
7,591
69.6
70.8
71.9
73.2
74.3
75.2
76.8
77.7
78.8
79.5
14.5
11.2
9.5
7.4
6.1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
58,167.2
58,305.3
58,481.1
58,643.2
58,836.7
726.6
716.9
700.0
679.0
669.1
629.7
629.2
632.1
608.4
602.3
33.8
33.7
33.6
33.3
32.8
30.0
30.1
30.0
30.0
29.9
1.73
1.72
1.69
1.65
1.63p
36.8
37.6
38.8
39.5
40.1p
28.8
28.9
28.9
29.1
29.2p
7,440
7,364
7,328
6,985
6,820
74.6
74.8
75.1
75.3p
..
79.6
79.8
80.0
80.1p
..
5.9
5.7
5.8
5.6
5.5
England
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
46,659.9
46,820.8
47,187.6
47,875.0
48,402.1
550.4
598.2
623.6
660.8
614.2
560.3
541.0
544.5
534.0
524.0
41.4
36.4
33.1
32.9
33.7
29.7
29.9
29.8
30.0
30.1
1.70
1.79
1.76
1.81
1.73
9.2
12.9
21.4
30.1
35.5
26.4
26.8
27.0
27.7
28.7
10,271
9,298
8,725
8,017
7,422
..
71.1
72.2
73.4
74.6
..
77.0
77.9
79.0
79.7
14.2
10.9
9.5
7.3
6.1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
48,523.0
48,657.5
48,836.5
48,897.3
49,181.3
608.2
602.1
589.5
572.8
563.7
519.1
519.6
519.6
501.0
496.1
33.7
33.6
33.5
33.2
32.7
30.0
30.1
30.0
30.0
29.9
1.73
1.72
1.70
1.66
1.64
36.7
37.5
38.5
39.1
39.6
28.8
29.0
29.0
29.2
29.3
7,279
7,215
7,149
6,825
6,665
74.9
75.1
75.4
75.6p
..
79.9
80.0
80.2
80.3p
..
5.9
5.6
5.7
5.6
5.4
Wales
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2,799.3
2,813.5
2,810.9
2,873.0
2,887.0
33.4
35.8
37.0
38.1
34.9
36.3
35.0
34.7
34.1
34.6
42.0
37.6
34.3
34.4
34.8
30.9
31.6
32.5
33.5
33.8
1.78
1.86
1.86
1.88
1.81
8.7
11.2
21.1
32.3
41.2
26.0
26.6
26.5
27.0
27.8
10,858
9,846
9,043
8,149
7,763
..
70.4
71.6
73.2
74.0
..
76.4
77.6
78.9
79.2
13.7
12.6
9.5
6.6
5.6
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2,889.6
2,892.9
2,893.6
2,900.1
2,903.2
34.5
33.4
32.1
31.3
30.6
34.6
34.0
35.0
33.3
33.0
34.7
34.7
34.5
34.2
33.9
33.7
33.8
33.7
33.6
33.7
1.81
1.78
1.72
1.68
1.66
42.8
44.4
46.1
47.2
48.3
28.0
28.0
28.1
28.2
28.3
7,682
7,478
7,642
7,182
7,025
74.4
74.5
74.8
74.9p
..
79.4
79.5
79.7
79.8p
..
5.9
5.6
6.1
5.3
5.4
Scotland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
5,233.4
5,180.2
5,111.8
5,083.3
5,092.2
64.9
69.1
65.8
67.0
59.3
65.3
63.8
63.5
61.0
60.7
44.7
38.2
33.6
32.4
32.3
28.4
28.4
28.1
28.9
29.2
1.80
1.84
1.67
1.69
1.56
9.3
12.2
20.6
29.1
36.0
26.0
26.3
26.6
27.4
28.5
11,675
10,849
10,120
9,216
8,791
68.2
69.1
70.2
71.4
72.2
74.4
75.3
76.2
77.1
77.8
14.8
11.3
8.8
7.1
6.2
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
5,083.3
5,077.1
5,072.0
5,062.9
5,064.2
59.4
57.3
55.1
53.1
52.5
59.5
59.2
60.3
57.8
57.4
32.1
31.9
31.7
31.4
30.8
29.4
29.6
29.7
29.8
30.0
1.58
1.55
1.51
1.48
1.49
37.7
39.0
41.2
42.6
43.3
28.6
28.8
28.9
29.0
29.2
8,533
8,432
8,493
8,082
7,930
72.4
72.6
72.8
73.1
..
77.9
78.1
78.2
78.6
..
5.3
5.5
5.0
5.7
5.5
Northern Ireland
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
1,523.5
1,543.0
1,573.5
1,607.3
1,661.8
26.4
27.2
28.0
26.0
24.4
17.0
16.3
16.1
15.1
15.2
56.1
50.6
46.1
44.1
41.8
25.3
25.3
25.5
26.1
25.5
2.70
2.59
2.44
2.16
1.96
5.0
7.0
12.8
20.3
26.0
27.4
27.5
27.5
28.0
28.8
11,746
10,567
10,071
8,303
7,742
67.5
69.2
70.9
72.6
73.8
73.8
75.5
77.1
78.4
79.2
18.3
13.2
10.2
7.4
5.8
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
1,671.3
1,677.8
1,679.0
1,682.9
1,689.3
24.1
23.7
23.0
21.5
22.0
15.0
15.0
15.7
14.9
14.5
41.2
40.7
40.2
39.5
38.6
25.4
25.4
25.5
25.4
25.5
1.93
1.90
1.86
1.75
1.80
26.7
28.5
30.3
31.8
32.5
29.0
29.0
29.0
29.2
29.4
7,550
7,460
7,699
7,279
6,976
74.2
74.3
74.5
74.8
..
79.5
79.5
79.6
79.8
..
5.6
5.6
6.4
5.1
6.1
Notes: Some of these indicators are also in other tables. They are brought together to make
comparison easier.
Figures for England and Wales represent the number of deaths registered in each year
up to 1992, and the number of deaths occurring in each year from 1993.
From 1981 births to non-resident mothers in Northern Ireland are excluded from
the figures for Northern Ireland, and the United Kingdom.
1 Percentage of children under 16 to working population (males 16–64 and females 16–59).
2 Percentage of males 65 and over and females 60 and over to working population (males
16–64 and females 16–59).
3 TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if
current patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes
called the TPFR (total period fertility rate).
4 The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no
account of the changing age structure of the population.
5 Per million population. The age-standardised mortality rate makes allowances for changes
in the age structure of the population. See Notes to tables.
5 Deaths under one year, per 1,000 live births.
p Provisional.
. . Figures not available.
See Notes to tables on page 66. For specific information about life expectancy see
‘in brief’ on page 3.
51
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
Live births: age of mother
Table 3.1
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), rates, mean age and TFRs
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
Age of mother at birth
35–39
40 and
over
All
ages
Under
20
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
TFR2
Age-specific fertility rates3
Total live births (numbers)
1961
20–24
Mean1
age
(years)
811.3
59.8
249.8
248.5
152.3
77.5
23.3
89.2
37.3
172.6
176.9
103.1
48.1
15.0
27.6
2.77
876.0
76.7
276.1
270.7
153.5
75.4
23.6
92.9
42.5
181.6
187.3
107.7
49.8
13.7
27.2
2.93
1966
849.8
86.7
285.8
253.7
136.4
67.0
20.1
90.5
47.7
176.0
174.0
97.3
45.3
12.5
26.8
2.75
1971
783.2
82.6
285.7
247.2
109.6
45.2
12.7
83.5
50.6
152.9
153.2
77.1
32.8
8.7
26.2
2.37
584.3
57.9
182.2
220.7
90.8
26.1
6.5
60.4
32.2
109.3
118.7
57.2
18.6
4.8
26.4
1.71
1977(min)
569.3
54.5
174.5
207.9
100.8
25.5
6.0
58.1
29.4
103.7
117.5
58.6
18.2
4.4
26.5
1.66
1981
634.5
56.6
194.5
215.8
126.6
34.2
6.9
61.3
28.1
105.3
129.1
68.6
21.7
4.9
26.8
1.80
1986
661.0
57.4
192.1
229.0
129.5
45.5
7.6
60.6
30.1
92.7
123.8
78.0
24.6
4.8
27.0
1.77
1991
699.2
52.4
173.4
248.7
161.3
53.6
9.8
63.6
33.0
89.3
119.4
86.7
32.1
5.3
27.6
1.82
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
689.7
673.5
664.7
648.1
649.5
47.9
45.1
42.0
41.9
44.7
163.3
152.0
140.2
130.7
125.7
244.8
236.0
229.1
217.4
211.1
166.8
171.1
179.6
181.2
186.4
56.7
58.8
63.1
65.5
69.5
10.2
10.5
10.7
11.3
12.1
63.6
62.7
62.0
60.5
60.6
31.7
30.9
28.9
28.5
29.7
86.2
82.6
79.1
76.4
77.0
117.5
114.4
112.4
108.7
106.9
87.3
87.3
89.3
88.2
89.7
33.4
34.1
35.8
36.4
37.5
5.8
6.2
6.4
6.8
7.2
27.9
28.0
28.4
28.5
28.6
1.80
1.77
1.75
1.72
1.74
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
643.1
635.9
621.9
604.4
594.6
46.4
48.3
48.4
45.8
44.2
118.6
113.5
110.7
107.7
108.8
202.8
193.1
181.9
170.7
159.9
187.5
188.5
185.3
180.1
178.9
74.9
78.9
81.3
85.0
86.5
12.9
13.6
14.3
15.1
16.3
60.0
59.3
57.9
56.0
54.8
30.3
31.2
31.1
29.5
28.0
75.9
74.9
73.1
70.2
69.3
104.5
101.6
98.4
94.5
91.9
89.8
90.7
89.7
88.1
88.2
39.3
40.4
40.6
41.4
41.6
7.6
7.9
8.1
8.4
8.8
28.8
28.9
29.0
29.1
29.2
1.73
1.72
1.70
1.66
1.64
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
148.7
150.7
155.0
150.1
11.4
11.1
11.8
11.5
26.4
26.0
27.8
27.5
42.5
42.8
43.6
41.8
44.1
45.7
46.2
44.1
20.6
21.4
21.7
21.4
3.6
3.7
3.9
3.9
55.4
56.1
57.1
55.3
30
29
30
29
69
68
72
71
95
95
96
92
87
90
90
86
40
42
42
41
8
8
9
9
29.1
29.2
29.1
29.1
1.64
1.66
1.69
1.64
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
145.5
148.8
153.0
147.4
11.0
10.8
11.4
11.1
26.5
26.4
28.1
27.8
39.8
40.3
41.0
38.9
43.3
45.5
46.4
43.7
21.0
21.7
22.0
21.8
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.2
54.5
55.1
56.6
53.9
28
27
29
28
69
68
72
70
91
92
94
89
86
90
92
86
41
42
42
42
9
9
9
9
29.2
29.3
29.2
29.2
1.62
1.64
1.68
1.62
p
20024 March
Junep
Septp
143.3
147.2
155.0
10.5
10.4
11.4
26.5
26.7
28.9
37.4
37.9
39.9
43.2
45.5
46.9
21.6
22.4
23.4
4.1
4.3
4.5
53.6
54.5
57.4
27
27
29
69
68
74
87
87
92
86
90
93
42
43
45
9
9
10
29.3
29.4
29.3
1.60
1.62
1.71
1964(max)
1
1976
1
Note: The rates for women of all ages, under 20, and 40 and over are based upon the populations of women aged 15–44, 15–19, and 40–44 respectively.
1 The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no account of the changing age structure of the population.
2 TFR (total fertility rate) is the number of children that would be born to a woman if current patterns of fertility persisted throughout her childbearing life. It is sometimes called the TPFR
(total period fertility rate). During the post Second World War period the TFR reached a maximum in 1964 and a minimum in 1977.
3 Births per 1,000 women in the age-group; all quarterly age-specific fertility rates are adjusted for days in the quarter. They are not adjusted for seasonality, and therefore have been revised
from those previously published.
4 The rates and TFR for the quarters of 2002 are based on the mid-2001 population estimates.
p Provisional.
National Statistics
52
Population Trends 111
Live births outside marriage: age of mother and type of registration
Table 3.2
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), mean age and percentages
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
Spring 2003
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
Registration2
Age of mother at birth
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age
(years)
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Joint
Sole
Same Different
address3 address3
Live births outside marriage (numbers)
Percentage of total live births
As a percentage of all
births outside marriage
{
in age-group
65.7
53.8
81.0
21.6
19.8
26.4
22.0
16.6
28.8
11.5
9.7
14.3
6.2
4.7
7.9
3.2
2.3
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.9
23.7
23.3
23.4
8.4
9.2
12.8
26.1
34.2
46.7
7.7
9.1
14.8
4.7
4.4
6.6
5.7
5.2
6.2
7.0
8.6
3.9
9.0
10.1
12.5
45.5
51.0
58.2
54.5
49.0
41.8
1986
1991
141.3
211.3
39.6
43.4
54.1
77.8
27.7
52.4
13.1
25.7
5.7
9.8
1.1
2.1
23.8
24.8
21.4
30.2
69.0
82.9
28.2
44.9
12.1
21.1
10.1
16.0
12.6
18.3
14.7
21.3
46.6
54.6
19.6
19.8
33.8
25.6
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
215.2
216.5
215.5
219.9
232.7
40.1
38.2
35.9
36.3
39.3
77.1
75.0
71.0
69.7
71.1
55.9
57.5
58.5
59.6
62.3
28.9
31.4
34.0
37.0
40.5
10.9
11.9
13.4
14.4
16.2
2.3
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.2
25.2
25.5
25.8
26.0
26.1
31.2
32.2
32.4
33.9
35.8
83.7
84.8
85.5
86.6
88.0
47.2
49.4
50.6
53.3
56.5
22.8
24.4
25.5
27.4
29.5
17.3
18.4
18.9
20.4
21.7
19.3
20.2
21.2
22.0
23.4
22.9
23.5
25.2
26.2
26.7
55.4
54.8
57.5
58.1
58.1
20.7
22.0
19.8
20.1
19.9
23.9
23.2
22.7
21.8
21.9
1997
1998
1999
2000
p
2001
238.2
240.6
241.9
238.6
238.1
41.1
43.0
43.0
41.1
39.5
69.5
67.8
67.5
67.5
68.1
63.4
62.4
61.2
59.1
56.8
42.2
43.9
45.0
43.9
45.2
18.2
19.6
20.8
22.3
23.3
3.7
3.9
4.3
4.7
5.1
26.2
26.3
26.4
26.5
26.7
37.0
37.8
38.9
39.5
40.0
88.7
89.1
89.0
89.7
89.5
58.6
59.7
61.0
62.6
62.6
31.3
32.3
33.6
34.6
35.5
22.5
23.3
24.3
24.4
25.3
24.3
24.8
25.6
26.2
26.9
28.6
29.0
30.2
31.0
31.6
59.5
60.9
61.8
62.7
63.2
19.3
18.3
18.2
18.2
18.4
21.2
20.8
19.9
19.2
18.4
1997 March
June
Sept
Dec
58.6
58.9
61.4
59.3
10.2
10.1
10.5
10.4
17.4
17.1
17.9
17.2
15.7
15.5
16.5
15.7
10.2
10.6
10.9
10.4
4.2
4.7
4.7
4.6
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
26.1
26.3
26.2
26.2
37.0
36.1
37.3
37.8
88.7
89.1
88.8
88.3
58.4
58.0
58.9
59.2
31.1
30.1
31.8
32.2
22.4
22.0
22.7
23.0
23.9
24.3
24.4
24.8
28.7
28.4
27.8
29.3
58.4
59.6
59.9
60.0
19.5
19.4
18.9
19.2
22.0
21.0
21.2
20.7
1998 March
June
Sept
Dec
58.5
58.4
63.2
60.5
10.4
10.3
11.3
11.0
16.5
16.2
17.9
17.2
15.3
15.4
16.3
15.4
10.7
10.8
11.5
10.9
4.6
4.7
5.2
5.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.0
26.3
26.3
26.3
26.3
37.5
36.8
38.1
38.9
89.0
89.6
89.2
88.5
59.5
59.1
60.0
60.4
31.9
31.8
32.3
33.3
23.1
22.5
23.6
24.0
24.4
24.0
25.2
25.7
29.6
28.3
28.5
29.7
60.5
61.0
60.9
61.2
18.4
18.2
18.4
18.4
21.1
20.8
20.7
20.4
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
59.0
59.8
62.9
60.2
10.8
10.5
11.1
10.6
16.4
16.5
17.7
17.0
15.0
15.3
16.0
14.9
10.9
11.2
11.7
11.1
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.3
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
26.3
26.5
26.4
26.4
38.8
38.0
39.3
39.5
89.7
89.2
88.7
88.4
60.5
60.6
61.7
61.2
33.4
33.0
34.1
34.0
24.1
23.4
24.7
24.8
25.4
25.3
25.6
26.2
29.5
31.3
29.3
30.8
61.4
61.6
62.2
62.0
18.2
18.2
18.1
18.4
20.4
20.1
19.6
19.5
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
59.0
57.9
61.7
60.1
10.2
10.0
10.6
10.3
16.5
16.1
17.6
17.3
14.8
14.4
15.3
14.7
10.9
10.9
11.3
10.9
5.4
5.5
5.7
5.7
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
26.5
26.6
26.5
26.5
39.7
38.5
39.8
40.0
89.7
89.7
89.7
89.5
62.6
61.9
63.3
62.8
34.8
33.5
35.0
35.2
24.7
23.8
24.5
24.7
26.1
25.7
26.5
26.6
31.7
30.6
30.4
31.4
62.5
62.9
62.7
62.6
18.1
17.8
18.1
18.6
19.5
19.2
19.2
18.8
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
58.0
58.1
61.8
60.2
9.9
9.6
10.2
9.9
16.7
16.3
17.6
17.5
13.9
14.1
14.7
14.1
10.8
11.2
12.0
11.3
5.7
5.7
6.0
5.9
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.4
26.5
26.7
26.7
26.7
39.8
39.1
40.4
40.9
90.4
89.0
89.5
89.2
63.0
61.5
62.6
63.1
34.9
34.9
35.9
36.4
24.8
24.5
25.8
25.9
26.9
26.4
27.2
27.2
28.0
32.2
32.2
33.9
62.5
63.3
63.5
63.4
18.7
18.6
18.4
18.6
18.8
18.6
18.2
18.0
58.0
58.1
63.4
9.4
9.6
10.2
16.7
16.3
18.4
13.6
14.1
14.6
10.9
11.2
12.3
6.0
5.7
6.5
1.3
1.3
1.5
26.8
26.8
26.8
40.5
39.6
40.9
89.4
89.4
89.3
63.0
62.2
63.8
36.4
35.6
36.6
25.4
25.0
26.1
27.7
27.2
27.9
31.5
31.7
32.7
63.2
64.2
63.9
18.5
18.2
18.5
18.3
17.7
17.5
{
1971
1976
1981
p
2002 March
Junep
Septp
1
2
3
p
The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no account of the changing age structure of the population.
Births outside marriage can be registered by both the mother and father (joint) or by the mother alone (sole).
Usual address(es) of parents.
Provisional.
53
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
Live births: within marriage, within marriage to remarried women, age of mother and birth order1
Table 3.3
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands) and mean age
2
Age of mother at birth
Year and
quarter
All
ages
Under
20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean
age
(years)
Age of mother at birth
All
ages
Under
20
Live births within marriage
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and
over
Mean2
age
(years)
Live births within marriage to remarried women
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
717.5
530.5
553.5
519.7
487.9
428.2
416.8
404.9
395.3
380.0
61.1
38.1
30.1
17.8
8.9
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.3
263.7
165.6
165.7
138.0
95.6
61.0
54.7
49.1
45.7
43.2
235.7
211.0
201.5
201.3
196.3
157.9
148.8
139.4
130.7
120.7
103.4
86.1
118.7
116.4
135.5
144.2
145.9
145.3
144.6
140.3
42.1
23.9
31.5
39.8
43.8
51.1
53.3
56.7
59.3
60.5
11.6
5.8
6.0
6.4
7.7
8.4
8.9
9.2
9.6
9.9
26.4
26.6
27.2
27.9
28.9
29.8
30.0
30.3
30.5
30.6
19.4
26.7
38.8
41.7
39.4
33.3
32.6
31.4
30.2
27.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
2.9
3.6
2.6
1.6
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
6.6
10.5
13.4
13.2
10.8
7.2
6.4
5.8
5.1
4.3
6.1
8.7
14.1
15.4
15.8
14.0
13.9
13.1
12.4
11.3
3.4
3.6
6.2
8.7
9.1
9.1
9.3
9.5
9.7
9.1
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.7
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
33.1
30.4
30.9
31.7
32.4
33.2
33.4
33.6
33.9
34.1
2000
2001
365.8
356.5
4.7
4.6
40.3
40.7
111.6
103.1
136.2
133.7
62.7
63.2
10.4
11.1
30.8
30.9
25.8
23.9
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
3.7
3.1
10.4
9.5
8.9
8.6
2.4
2.4
34.3
34.5
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
89.7
92.7
93.3
90.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
9.9
9.9
10.2
10.3
27.7
28.5
28.4
27.1
33.2
34.8
34.9
33.2
15.2
15.9
15.9
15.7
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.7
30.8
30.9
30.8
30.8
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.2
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.6
34.2
34.2
34.4
34.4
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
87.6
90.7
91.2
87.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
9.8
10.2
10.5
10.2
25.9
26.2
26.3
24.7
32.5
34.4
34.4
32.4
15.3
16.0
16.0
15.8
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.8
30.9
30.9
30.9
30.9
6.0
6.1
6.1
5.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
34.4
34.5
34.5
34.5
2002 Marchp
Junepp
Sept
85.3
88.9
91.6
1.1
1.1
1.2
9.8
10.1
10.5
23.8
24.4
25.3
32.2
34.2
34.6
15.6
16.3
16.9
2.8
2.9
3.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
5.7
5.6
5.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.7
0.6
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.2
0.6
0.6
0.6
34.7
34.7
34.7
First live births
Second live births
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
283.6
217.2
224.3
206.9
193.7
168.1
163.0
157.0
155.7
153.4
49.5
30.2
23.6
13.8
6.7
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.3
135.8
85.4
89.5
74.7
51.2
32.3
28.9
25.9
24.3
23.5
74.8
77.2
77.2
79.3
84.5
71.0
67.2
63.1
60.6
57.4
17.2
19.7
27.8
30.8
40.2
46.6
47.7
48.1
49.5
50.0
5.1
3.9
5.4
7.5
9.7
12.1
13.1
13.8
15.0
16.1
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.3
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
23.9
24.8
25.3
26.2
27.5
28.5
28.8
29.0
29.2
29.3
240.8
203.6
205.7
189.2
178.3
158.1
153.8
150.4
146.9
139.5
10.7
7.4
6.1
3.6
2.0
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
93.6
62.5
59.0
47.5
32.8
20.6
18.5
16.6
15.5
14.4
94.1
91.8
82.7
78.9
73.9
57.3
53.4
50.0
46.4
41.8
31.8
34.7
47.7
45.5
53.0
58.5
59.1
59.4
58.9
56.6
8.9
6.2
9.1
12.3
14.7
18.1
19.2
20.7
22.2
22.6
1.7
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.9
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.8
3.1
26.2
26.8
27.4
28.0
28.9
30.0
30.3
30.5
30.7
30.9
2000
2001
146.5
143.9
3.8
3.8
21.6
22.2
52.7
48.8
49.4
49.7
16.6
16.8
2.4
2.6
29.6
29.6
134.7
132.2
0.8
0.8
13.7
13.7
38.4
35.7
54.8
53.8
23.8
24.8
3.2
3.5
31.1
31.2
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
35.5
36.3
37.7
37.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
5.2
5.3
5.6
5.6
12.9
13.2
13.5
13.1
11.8
12.2
12.8
12.6
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.2
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
29.6
29.6
29.5
29.6
33.0
35.2
34.2
32.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
9.5
10.1
9.8
8.9
13.3
14.5
14.0
13.0
5.8
6.2
6.0
5.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
31.0
31.1
31.1
31.1
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
34.7
35.6
37.4
36.2
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
5.2
5.5
5.8
5.7
12.0
12.1
12.7
12.0
12.0
12.3
12.9
12.5
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.3
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
29.7
29.6
29.6
29.7
32.7
34.8
33.5
31.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.4
9.1
9.4
8.9
8.2
13.1
14.3
13.8
12.6
5.9
6.5
6.3
6.0
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
31.2
31.2
31.3
31.3
p
2002 March
Junepp
Sept
34.3
35.5
37.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
5.3
5.5
5.9
11.2
11.5
12.3
12.1
12.5
13.3
4.3
4.4
4.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
29.7
29.8
29.7
31.6
33.9
33.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.3
3.4
3.4
8.2
8.6
8.5
12.9
14.2
13.9
6.1
6.6
6.6
0.6
0.9
1.0
31.3
31.4
31.4
Fourth and higher order live births3
Third live births
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
111.7
71.0
82.4
80.8
76.1
66.7
65.3
63.2
60.4
56.4
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
26.6
14.4
14.1
12.7
9.4
6.5
5.8
5.3
4.7
4.2
43.6
29.8
29.5
30.2
26.8
20.5
19.6
18.1
16.4
14.7
27.9
19.5
28.7
25.6
27.5
26.1
26.0
25.1
24.0
22.3
10.4
5.8
8.7
10.5
10.5
11.7
12.0
12.7
13.1
13.0
2.2
1.1
1.0
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
28.7
28.8
29.5
29.9
30.4
31.1
31.3
31.5
31.8
32.0
81.4
38.8
41.1
42.7
39.8
35.3
34.7
34.2
32.3
30.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.6
3.3
3.1
3.1
2.3
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.1
23.2
12.2
12.0
13.0
11.1
9.0
8.6
8.1
7.4
6.8
26.5
12.1
14.5
14.5
14.8
13.1
13.1
12.7
12.1
11.4
17.6
8.0
8.3
9.4
8.9
9.2
9.0
9.4
9.0
8.8
6.5
3.1
3.2
2.8
2.7
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
30.7
30.7
31.1
31.2
31.6
32.0
32.2
32.4
32.6
32.7
2000
2001
54.9
52.1
0.1
0.1
4.0
3.9
14.1
12.8
21.1
19.8
13.5
13.2
2.2
2.3
32.1
32.2
29.7
28.3
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.9
6.4
5.9
10.9
10.4
8.7
8.4
2.7
2.7
32.8
33.0
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
13.6
14.0
13.9
13.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.0
3.2
3.5
3.4
3.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
32.0
32.1
32.2
32.1
7.6
7.3
7.4
7.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.2
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
32.7
32.9
32.9
32.9
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
13.0
13.3
13.3
12.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
4.9
5.2
5.1
4.7
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
32.1
32.2
32.3
32.3
7.2
7.0
7.1
7.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.2
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
33.1
32.9
33.0
33.0
2002 Marchp
Junepp
Sept
12.3
12.5
13.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
4.6
4.9
4.9
3.2
3.2
3.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
32.2
32.3
32.4
7.0
7.0
7.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.4
1.4
1.5
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.1
2.0
2.2
0.7
0.7
0.7
32.9
33.1
33.1
1
2
3
p
Birth order is based on all live births within marriage to the mother by her present or any former husband.
The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no account of the changing age structure of the population.
Mean age at birth refers to fourth births only.
Provisional.
National Statistics
54
Population Trends 111
Table 4.1
Spring 2003
Conceptions: age of women at conception
England and Wales (residents)
Numbers (thousands) and rates; and percentage terminated by abortion
Age of woman at conception
Year and quarter
All ages
Under 16
(a) numbers (thousands)
853.7
7.5
1991
Under 18
Under 20
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40 and over
40.1
101.6
233.3
281.5
167.5
57.6
12.1
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
819.0
801.6
790.3
816.9
800.4
7.3
7.8
8.1
8.9
8.3
35.8
36.1
37.9
43.5
43.4
87.2
85.4
86.6
94.9
96.0
203.6
190.4
181.1
179.8
167.3
271.7
261.8
250.3
252.6
242.6
181.0
185.0
190.3
200.0
200.9
63.0
66.2
68.7
75.5
78.9
12.6
12.9
13.2
14.1
14.7
1998
1999
2000p
2001
797.0
774.0
767.0
763.3
8.5
7.9
8.1
7.9
44.1
42.0
41.3
41.0
101.6
98.8
97.7
95.9
163.3
157.6
159.0
161.6
232.4
218.5
209.3
199.2
201.4
197.1
195.3
196.6
82.9
86.0
88.7
92.2
15.4
16.0
17.0
17.8
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
191.5
190.4
194.0
198.0
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
10.4
10.5
10.4
10.8
24.9
24.4
24.1
25.4
39.6
39.1
38.4
40.5
54.3
53.8
54.7
55.6
48.4
47.9
50.7
50.2
20.6
21.2
22.1
22.2
3.8
4.1
4.1
4.1
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
193.1
188.7
190.0
195.2
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
10.5
10.4
10.0
10.4
25.1
24.3
23.5
24.7
40.4
39.3
38.4
40.9
53.2
51.5
52.0
52.7
48.3
47.5
49.7
49.8
21.9
21.8
22.2
22.7
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.3
189.2
187.4
189.3
197.4
1.9
2.1
1.9
2.0
10.2
10.2
10.0
10.6
24.3
24.0
23.1
24.5
40.4
39.8
39.2
42.2
50.0
48.8
49.5
51.0
47.8
47.7
49.9
51.2
22.3
22.8
23.2
23.9
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.7
(b) rates (conceptions per thousand women in age group)
77.7
8.9
44.6
64.1
2001 March
p
Junep
Sept
Dec P
p
1991
120.2
135.1
90.1
34.4
6.6
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
76.2
74.8
73.8
76.2
74.7
8.1
8.3
8.6
9.6
9.0
42.3
41.8
42.0
46.4
46.3
59.7
58.7
58.8
63.1
62.8
110.6
107.4
105.9
110.1
107.1
131.7
128.4
125.1
127.9
125.0
92.4
92.0
92.7
96.2
96.2
36.6
37.6
38.1
40.7
41.4
7.4
7.6
8.0
8.4
8.7
1998
1999
2000
2001P
74.3
72.0
71.0
70.4
9.0
8.3
8.3
8.0
47.6
45.8
44.1
42.5
65.8
63.4
62.8
60.9
107.7
104.0
103.5
102.9
122.2
118.2
115.9
114.5
96.9
95.5
95.6
96.9
42.4
42.9
43.2
44.4
8.9
9.1
9.4
9.6
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
72.3
71.1
71.6
73.0
8.0
8.5
8.1
8.5
45.8
45.6
44.7
46.2
65.0
62.9
61.5
64.7
106.0
103.5
100.3
105.7
117.9
116.4
117.8
120.3
94,8
93.0
97.5
96.8
42.0
42.5
43.5
43.6
8.8
9.3
9.1
9.2
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
72.1
70.3
70,0
71.8
8.5
8.5
8.3
8.0
45.6
44.8
42.2
43.7
65.0
62.8
60.1
62.9
106.3
103.2
99.1
105.1
117.3
114.3
115.1
117.7
94.7
93.4
96.8
97.2
43.4
43.0
42.9
43.9
9.4
9.6
9.3
9.5
70.9
69.4
69.3
72.2
7.8
8.4
7.7
8.0
43.3
42.7
41.1
43.5
63.0
61.1
58.1
61.8
105.3
101.8
99.0
106.5
114.9
111.9
112.9
116.3
95.3
94.3
97.7
100.1
43.8
44.1
44.3
45.6
9.7
9.5
9.4
10.0
2001 March
Junepp
Sept
Dec P
p
(c) percentage terminated by abortion
19.4
51.1
1991
39.9
34.5
22.2
13.4
13.7
22.0
41.6
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
19.2
19.5
19.7
20.8
21.3
49.9
50.3
47.6
49.2
49.7
39.2
39.8
38.7
40.0
40.6
34.3
34.7
34.6
36.2
36.8
22.8
23.4
24.2
25.7
26.7
13.9
14.3
14.8
15.6
16.4
13.5
13.6
13.6
14.1
14.2
21.5
21.1
20.7
21.2
21.0
40.2
40.9
38.0
37.6
38.0
1998
1999
2000
2001P
22.3
22.6
22.7
23.2
52.4
52.6
54.0
55.7
42.0
43.0
44.2
45.7
37.8
38.6
39.3
40.3
27.8
28.5
29.2
29.7
17.1
17.5
17.7
18.3
14.9
14.7
14.5
14.6
21.5
21.2
20.5
20.4
37.9
37.0
35.4
34.6
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
22.3
23.0
22.1
22.8
51.4
52.9
52.7
53.5
42.0
43.5
43.1
43.6
38.0
38.6
38.7
39.1
27.9
28.6
28.5
29.2
17.2
18.0
17.2
17.7
14.7
15.5
14.1
14.7
21.6
21.5
20.6
21.2
36.2
37.8
37.3
36.6
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
22.9
23.2
22.0
22.8
53.8
55.1
53.2
54.0
44.3
44.4
43.8
44.1
39.6
39.2
38.7
39.8
29.6
29.7
28.2
29.2
17.7
18.1
17.4
17.5
14.5
15.1
14.0
14.4
20.4
20.9
19.8
20.8
35.3
35.1
35.4
35.9
23.4
23.8
22.5
22.9
54.3
58.8
55.0
54.7
44.9
47.0
45.7
45.1
40.1
41.1
40.1
40.0
29.8
30.3
29.2
29.5
18.5
18.6
18.1
18.0
14.8
15.3
13.8
14.3
20.7
21.0
20.0
20.2
34.9
36.0
33.5
34.0
2001 March
Junepp
Sept
Dec P
Notes:
p
Conceptions are estimates derived from birth registrations and abortion notifications.
Rates for women of all ages, under 16, under 18, under 20 and 40 and over are based on the population of women aged 15–44, 13–15, 15–17, 15–19 and 40–44 respectively.
For a quarterly analysis of conceptions under 18 for local authority areas see the National Statistics website, www.statistics.gov.uk.
p Provisional.
55
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Table 5.1
Spring 2003
Expectation of life at birth and selected age
Constituent countries of the United Kingdom
Years
Males
Year
At
birth
Females
At age
Year
5
20
30
50
60
70
80
At
birth
At age
5
20
30
50
60
70
80
United Kingdom
1981
1986
1991
70.8
71.9
73.2
66.9
67.8
68.9
52.3
53.2
54.3
42.7
43.6
44.7
24.1
24.9
26.0
16.3
16.8
17.7
10.1
10.5
11.1
5.8
6.0
6.4
1981
1986
1991
76.8
77.7
78.8
72.7
73.5
74.4
57.9
58.7
59.6
48.1
48.9
49.7
29.2
29.8
30.7
20.8
21.2
21.9
13.3
13.8
14.4
7.5
7.9
8.4
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
73.9
74.1
74.3
74.6
74.8
69.5
69.7
69.9
70.2
70.4
54.8
55.0
55.2
55.5
55.7
45.2
45.5
45.7
45.9
46.1
26.5
26.8
26.9
27.2
27.4
18.1
18.4
18.5
18.8
19.0
11.3
11.5
11.6
11.8
11.9
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.8
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
79.2
79.4
79.5
79.6
79.8
74.7
74.9
75.0
75.1
75.3
59.9
60.1
60.1
60.3
60.4
50.1
50.3
50.3
50.5
50.6
31.0
31.2
31.2
31.4
31.5
22.2
22.4
22.4
22.6
22.6
14.5
14.6
14.6
14.7
14.8
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.6
1999
2000p
75.1
75.3
70.7
70.9
55.9
56.1
46.4
46.6
27.7
27.9
19.2
19.5
12.1
12.2
6.9
7.0
1999
2000p
80.0
80.1
75.5
75.6
60.6
60.8
50.8
51.0
31.7
31.8
22.8
23.0
14.9
15.0
8.6
8.6
England and Wales
1981
71.0
1986
72.1
1991
73.4
67.1
68.0
69.1
52.5
53.4
54.5
42.9
43.8
44.9
24.3
25.0
26.2
16.4
16.9
17.9
10.1
10.6
11.2
5.8
6.1
6.4
1981
1986
1991
77.0
77.9
79.0
72.9
73.6
74.6
58.1
58.9
59.8
48.3
49.0
49.9
29.4
30.0
30.8
20.9
21.4
22.1
13.4
13.9
14.5
7.5
7.9
8.4
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
74.1
74.4
74.6
74.8
75.1
69.7
70.0
70.2
70.4
70.7
55.0
55.2
55.4
55.7
55.9
45.4
45.7
45.9
46.1
46.4
26.7
26.9
27.1
27.4
27.6
18.3
18.5
18.7
18.9
19.1
11.4
11.6
11.7
11.9
12.0
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
79.4
79.6
79.7
79.8
80.0
74.9
75.1
75.2
75.3
75.5
60.1
60.3
60.3
60.5
60.6
50.3
50.4
50.5
50.7
50.8
31.2
31.3
31.4
31.6
31.7
22.3
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.8
14.6
14.7
14.7
14.8
14.9
8.5
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.6
1999
2000p
75.4
75.6
70.9
71.1
56.2
56.4
46.6
46.8
27.9
28.1
19.3
19.6
12.2
12.3
7.0
7.9
1999
2000p
80.2
80.3
75.7
75.8
60.8
60.9
51.0
51.1
31.9
32.0
23.0
23.1
15.0
15.1
8.7
8.6
England
1981
1986
1991
71.1
72.2
73.4
67.1
68.1
69.1
52.5
53.4
54.5
42.9
43.8
44.9
24.3
25.1
26.2
16.4
17.0
17.9
10.1
10.6
11.2
5.8
6.1
6.4
1981
1986
1991
77.0
77.9
79.0
72.9
73.7
74.6
58.2
58.9
59.8
48.4
49.1
49.9
29.4
30.0
30.9
20.9
21.4
22.1
13.4
13.9
14.5
7.5
7.9
8.4
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
74.1
74.4
74.6
74.9
75.1
69.7
70.0
70.2
70.5
70.7
55.0
55.3
55.5
55.7
56.0
45.5
45.7
45.9
46.2
46.4
26.7
27.0
27.2
27.4
27.6
18.3
18.5
18.7
18.9
19.1
11.4
11.6
11.7
11.9
12.0
6.6
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
79.4
79.6
79.7
79.9
80.0
74.9
75.1
75.2
75.4
75.5
60.1
60.3
60.4
60.5
60.6
50.3
50.5
50.6
50.7
50.8
31.2
31.4
31.4
31.6
31.7
22.4
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.8
14.6
14.7
14.7
14.8
14.9
8.5
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.6
1999
2000p
75.4
75.6
71.0
71.2
56.2
56.4
46.7
46.9
27.9
28.2
19.4
19.6
12.2
12.4
7.0
7.0
1999
2000p
80.2
80.3
75.7
75.8
60.8
61.0
51.0
51.2
31.9
32.0
23.0
23.1
15.0
15.1
8.7
8.6
Wales
1981
1986
1991
70.4
71.6
73.2
66.5
67.5
68.9
51.9
52.9
54.2
42.2
43.3
44.6
23.6
24.6
25.9
15.8
16.6
17.6
9.7
10.4
11.0
5.5
6.0
6.4
1981
1986
1991
76.4
77.6
78.9
72.3
73.3
74.4
57.5
58.5
59.6
47.7
48.7
49.8
28.9
29.7
30.7
20.4
21.1
21.9
13.1
13.8
14.4
7.4
7.8
8.4
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
73.5
73.8
74.0
74.4
74.5
69.1
69.4
69.5
69.9
70.1
54.4
54.7
54.8
55.2
55.4
44.9
45.2
45.4
45.7
45.9
26.2
26.5
26.6
27.0
27.1
17.9
18.1
18.3
18.6
18.7
11.1
11.3
11.4
11.6
11.7
6.5
6.6
6.5
6.8
6.8
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
79.0
79.2
79.2
79.4
79.5
74.5
74.7
74.7
74.9
75.0
59.7
59.8
59.8
60.0
60.1
49.8
50.0
50.0
50.2
50.3
30.8
30.9
31.0
31.1
31.2
22.0
22.2
22.2
22.4
22.4
14.4
14.5
14.5
14.6
14.6
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
1999
2000p
74.8
74.9
70.4
70.5
55.7
55.7
46.2
46.3
27.4
27.6
19.0
19.1
12.0
12.0
6.9
6.8
1999
2000p
79.7
79.8
75.1
75.2
60.3
60.4
50.5
50.6
31.4
31.5
22.6
22.6
14.7
14.7
8.6
8.4
Scotland
1981
1986
1991
69.1
70.2
71.4
65.2
66.0
67.1
50.6
51.4
52.5
41.1
41.9
43.0
22.9
23.5
24.6
15.4
15.8
16.6
9.5
9.9
10.4
5.5
5.7
6.1
1981
1986
1991
75.3
76.2
77.1
71.2
71.9
72.6
56.4
57.1
57.8
46.7
47.3
48.1
27.9
28.4
29.1
19.7
20.1
20.6
12.7
13.0
13.4
7.2
7.5
7.8
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
71.9
72.1
72.2
72.4
72.6
67.5
67.7
67.8
67.9
68.1
52.8
53.1
53.1
53.3
53.5
43.4
43.6
43.7
43.9
44.1
24.9
25.2
25.3
25.5
25.7
16.9
17.2
17.3
17.5
17.7
10.6
10.8
10.9
11.0
11.1
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.4
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
77.4
77.6
77.8
77.9
78.1
72.9
73.2
73.2
73.4
73.5
58.1
58.3
58.4
58.6
58.7
48.3
48.6
48.7
48.8
48.9
29.4
29.6
29.7
29.9
29.9
20.8
21.0
21.1
21.3
21.3
13.5
13.7
13.7
13.8
13.8
7.8
7.9
7.9
7.9
7.9
1999
2000p
72.8
73.1
68.4
68.6
53.7
53.9
44.3
44.6
25.9
26.3
17.9
18.2
11.3
11.5
6.5
6.6
1999
2000
78.2
78.6
73.7
74.0
58.8
59.2
49.1
49.4
30.1
30.5
21.4
21.8
13.9
14.1
7.9
8.1
Northern Ireland
1981
1986
1991
69.2
70.9
72.6
65.4
66.8
68.2
50.9
52.2
53.6
41.5
42.7
44.1
23.2
24.2
25.5
15.6
16.4
17.3
9.7
10.4
11.0
5.8
6.2
6.4
1981
1986
1991
75.5
77.1
78.4
71.6
72.9
74.0
56.8
58.1
59.2
47.1
48.3
49.4
28.3
29.3
30.3
20.0
20.8
21.6
12.8
13.4
14.2
7.3
7.8
8.3
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
73.1
73.5
73.8
74.2
74.3
68.8
69.1
69.4
69.7
69.8
54.2
54.5
54.7
55.0
55.1
44.7
45.0
45.2
45.5
45.6
26.0
26.3
26.5
26.8
26.9
17.8
18.0
18.2
18.3
18.5
11.2
11.3
11.3
11.5
11.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
78.6
78.9
79.2
79.5
79.5
74.2
74.5
74.7
75.0
75.0
59.4
59.6
59.9
60.2
60.2
49.6
49.8
50.0
50.3
50.4
30.6
30.8
30.9
31.2
31.3
21.9
22.0
22.1
22.4
22.4
14.3
14.4
14.4
14.6
14.5
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.3
1999
2000
74.5
74.8
70.0
70.4
55.4
55.7
45.9
46.2
27.2
27.6
18.7
19.1
11.7
11.9
6.6
6.6
1999
2000
79.6
79.8
75.1
75.2
60.3
60.4
50.5
50.6
31.4
31.5
22.5
22.6
14.6
14.6
8.3
8.2
Note: Figures from 1981 are calculated from the population estimates revised in the light of the 1991 Census. All figures are based on a three-year period; Notes to tables for further
information.
P provisional
See Notes to tables on page 66; See also ‘inbrief’ on page 3.
National Statistics
56
Population Trends 111
Table 6.1
Spring 2003
Deaths: age and sex
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands) and rates
Age group
Year and quarter
All ages
Under 11
1–4
5–9
10–14
15–19
20–24
25–34
35–44
45–54
55–64
65–74
75–84
85 and over
Numbers (thousands)
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
300.1
289.0
287.9
277.6
268.7
4.88
4.12
3.72
2.97
2.27
0.88
0.65
0.57
0.55
0.44
0.68
0.45
0.33
0.34
0.24
0.64
0.57
0.38
0.35
0.29
1.66
1.73
1.43
1.21
0.93
1.66
1.58
1.75
1.76
1.41
3.24
3.18
3.10
3.69
4.06
5.93
5.54
5.77
6.16
5.84
20.4
16.9
14.4
13.3
13.6
52.0
46.9
43.6
34.9
30.1
98.7
92.2
84.4
77.2
71.0
80.3
86.8
96.2
95.8
90.7
29.0
28.5
32.2
39.3
47.8
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
264.9
264.7
264.3
255.5
252.4
2.14
2.07
2.08
1.89
1.81
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.34
0.32
0.27
0.24
0.22
0.22
0.19
0.33
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.95
0.88
0.90
0.87
0.88
1.44
1.29
1.27
1.22
1.27
3.94
4.01
3.85
3.76
3.63
5.71
5.90
5.93
6.05
6.07
13.5
13.6
13.6
13.4
13.3
28.9
29.1
28.7
27.9
27.5
68.0
66.1
64.3
60.6
57.5
90.2
90.5
90.4
87.1
87.0
49.1
50.4
52.3
51.9
52.7
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
298.5
288.9
293.3
292.5
291.5
3.46
2.90
2.59
2.19
1.69
0.59
0.53
0.49
0.44
0.32
0.45
0.30
0.25
0.25
0.18
0.42
0.37
0.27
0.22
0.20
0.62
0.65
0.56
0.46
0.43
0.67
0.64
0.67
0.64
0.51
1.94
1.82
1.65
1.73
1.85
4.04
3.74
3.83
3.70
3.66
12.8
10.5
8.8
8.4
8.9
29.6
27.2
25.8
21.3
18.2
67.1
62.8
58.4
54.2
50.2
104.7
103.6
106.5
103.3
96.7
72.1
73.9
83.6
95.7
108.7
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
290.4
290.3
291.8
280.1
277.9
1.66
1.56
1.55
1.49
1.43
0.30
0.31
0.30
0.25
0.27
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.16
0.19
0.21
0.19
0.22
0.18
0.18
0.43
0.41
0.39
0.38
0.38
0.49
0.48
0.47
0.47
0.47
1.72
1.72
1.67
1.69
1.59
3.74
3.68
3.79
3.87
3.77
9.0
9.1
9.0
9.1
8.9
17.9
17.9
18.0
17.6
17.6
48.3
46.9
45.1
42.2
40.5
95.5
94.7
93.9
89.3
88.8
110.9
113.2
117.2
113.4
113.9
Rates (deaths per 1,000 population in each age group)
Males
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
12.5
12.0
11.8
11.2
10.8
16.2
12.6
11.0
8.3
6.8
0.65
0.53
0.44
0.40
0.32
0.34
0.27
0.21
0.21
0.14
0.31
0.29
0.23
0.23
0.18
0.88
0.82
0.72
0.72
0.60
0.96
0.83
0.83
0.89
0.87
0.92
0.89
0.88
0.94
1.02
2.09
1.83
1.68
1.76
1.67
6.97
6.11
5.27
4.56
4.06
19.6
17.7
16.6
13.9
11.9
50.3
45.6
42.8
38.1
34.5
116.4
105.2
101.2
93.1
85.0
243.2
226.5
215.4
205.6
199.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
10.6
10.6
10.5
10.1
10.0
6.5
6.4
6.5
6.1
5.9
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.26
0.25
0.15
0.14
0.12
0.13
0.11
0.20
0.17
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.61
0.55
0.56
0.54
0.53
0.94
0.87
0.85
0.81
0.81
1.00
1.04
1.02
1.01
1.00
1.61
1.63
1.60
1.60
1.58
3.99
4.00
4.00
3.93
3.90
11.4
11.3
10.9
10.4
10.0
33.3
32.4
31.6
29.8
28.1
82.4
81.1
80.0
76.0
74.2
197.1
193.9
194.7
187.7
186.6
2000 Dec
10.1
6.1
0.26
0.11
0.16
0.54
0.72
1.00
1.56
3.97
10.4
29.4
75.9
189.2
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
10.9
9.7
9.2
10.0
6.5
5.5
5.8
6.0
0.26
0.27
0.22
0.24
0.11
0.11
0.14
0.08
0.16
0.18
0.13
0.17
0.53
0.50
0.54
0.57
0.85
0.81
0.83
0.77
1.02
1.02
1.00
0.97
1.62
1.53
1.60
1.56
4.10
3.89
3.73
3.89
10.8
9.8
9.6
10.1
30.6
27.3
26.3
28.1
81.8
72.8
67.6
74.7
211.1
178.9
166.0
190.9
20022 March P
Junep
Sept P
10.9
9.8
9.3
6.5
6.0
5.5
0.30
0.24
0.25
0.13
0.10
0.12
0.17
0.16
0.14
0.51
0.62
0.50
0.84
0.84
0.78
1.01
0.96
0.98
1.60
1.60
1.61
3.92
3.76
3.76
10.4
10.0
9.8
29.9
27.2
25.7
82.3
73.0
69.1
217.8
182.6
166.6
Females
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
11.8
11.3
11.4
11.2
11.1
12.2
9.4
8.0
6.4
5.3
0.46
0.46
0.40
0.33
0.25
0.24
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.10
0.21
0.19
0.17
0.15
0.13
0.35
0.32
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.40
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.31
0.56
0.52
0.47
0.44
0.46
1.46
1.26
1.12
1.05
1.04
4.30
3.80
3.24
2.87
2.63
10.1
9.5
9.2
8.2
7.1
26.0
24.1
23.4
21.8
20.6
74.6
66.2
62.5
58.7
55.8
196.6
178.2
169.4
161.6
159.1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
11.0
11.0
11.0
10.5
10.4
5.3
5.0
5.1
5.1
4.9
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.20
0.22
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.12
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.11
0.11
0.28
0.26
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.31
0.32
0.31
0.30
0.30
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.44
0.42
1.04
1.00
1.01
1.01
0.96
2.64
2.64
2.62
2.63
2.57
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.4
6.3
20.2
19.8
19.3
18.1
17.4
54.6
53.9
53.4
50.9
50.2
160.0
159.3
162.8
155.4
155.3
2000 Dec
10.6
5.0
0.18
0.11
0.12
0.24
0.30
0.43
1.03
2.62
6.4
18.0
51.3
156.7
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
11.7
10.0
9.4
10.5
5.1
4.6
4.9
5.2
0.30
0.22
0.15
0.22
0.14
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.08
0.14
0.28
0.25
0.22
0.22
0.27
0.32
0.25
0.35
0.48
0.40
0.41
0.41
1.01
0.93
0.97
0.93
2.67
2.58
2.47
2.58
6.6
6.3
5.9
6.3
19.2
17.0
15.9
17.7
56.2
48.8
45.5
50.7
179.6
147.3
137.3
157.2
20022 March p
Junep
Sept P
11.7
10.1
9.6
4.8
4.5
4.0
0.17
0.20
0.19
0.11
0.07
0.09
0.13
0.15
0.13
0.27
0.23
0.23
0.27
0.35
0.26
0.40
0.42
0.46
0.99
0.96
0.92
2.55
2.47
2.44
6.5
6.2
6.2
18.3
16.9
16.2
56.2
48.9
46.8
183.3
148.4
140.7
Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths registered in each year up to 1992 and the numbers of deaths occurring in each year from 1993.
1 Rates per 1,000 live births.
2 The quarters of 2002 are based on the mid-2001 population estimates.
p Provisional registrations.
57
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Table 6.2
Spring 2003
Deaths: subnational
Government Office Regions of England1
Year and
quarter
North East
Rates
North
West
Yorkshire and
the Humber
East Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
South
West
Total deaths (deaths per 1,000 population of all ages)
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
11.9
11.8
11.6
12.0
11.7
11.8
11.7
11.6
11.7
11.5
11.3
11.2
11.1
11.2
10.9
10.8
10.7
10.5
10.8
10.7
1.10
10.7
10.6
10.6
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.2
10.2
10.3
9.8
9.5
9.2
8.9
8.9
10.9
10.7
10.6
10.4
10.5
12.0
11.7
11.7
11.4
11.6
2000
2001
10.9
11.2
10.7
11.1
10.3
10.4
10.0
10.2
10.4
10.2
9.9
9.9
8.4
8.1
9.8
9.9
11.3
11.0
2000 Dec
11.1
10.9
10.4
10.1
10.0
9.8
8.2
9.8
10.8
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
12.5
10.6
10.3
11.3
12.4
10.8
10.0
11.2
11.6
10.1
9.4
10.6
11.4
9.9
9.3
10.2
11.5
9.9
9.3
10.3
10.9
9.6
9.1
10.0
9.1
7.8
7.4
8.1
10.8
9.7
9.2
10.0
12.0
10.7
10.1
11.2
20022 March p
Junep
Sept P
12.4
11.1
10.3
12.3
10.8
10.0
11.5
10.2
9.8
11.2
9.9
9.4
11.2
9.9
9.6
11.1
9.7
9.2
8.7
7.7
7.5
11.1
9.6
9.2
12.2
10.9
10.4
Infant mortality (deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births)
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
6.7
6.2
5.8
5.0
5.6
6.5
6.3
6.7
6.3
6.5
6.9
6.5
6.5
6.9
6.3
5.7
6.3
5.7
5.6
6.0
7.1
6.8
7.0
6.5
6.9
5.2
5.3
4.8
5.0
4.6
6.4
6.3
5.8
6.0
6.0
5.2
5.3
5.0
4.4
4.8
5.3
5.5
5.8
4.8
4.7
2000
2001
6.5
5.4
6.2
5.8
7.3
5.5
5.4
4.9
6.8
6.4
4.4
4.5
5.4
6.1
4.4
4.2
4.7
5.4
2000 Dec
5.8
5.8
7.2
6.2
5.8
4.4
5.6
4.5
5.7
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
6.1
5.1
5.5
4.7
6.4
5.7
5.4
5.9
6.4
5.4
4.1
6.2
4.7
5.6
5.3
4.2
6.7
6.8
5.5
6.7
4.0
4.5
4.6
5.0
6.4
4.9
6.8
6.5
4.7
3.8
4.6
3.8
6.4
4.3
4.8
6.1
2002 March p
Junep
Sept P
4.3
5.7
4.6
7.1
5.6
4.1
6.6
5.5
5.8
6.6
5.4
4.9
6.5
6.1
6.3
4.2
5.2
4.2
5.7
5.6
5.2
4.9
4.6
3.9
4.9
4.2
3.8
Neonatal mortality (deaths under 4 weeks per 1,000 live births)
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
4.7
4.1
3.7
3.1
4.1
4.2
4.0
4.3
4.1
4.4
4.8
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.1
3.8
4.2
3.7
3.7
4.3
5.3
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.8
3.4
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.0
4.3
4.4
3.7
4.1
4.1
3.6
3.5
3.4
2.9
3.2
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.3
3.2
2000
2001
4.4
3.5
4.3
3.8
5.0
3.2
4.1
3.4
5.0
4.4
3.0
2.9
3.7
4.1
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.7
2000 Dec
3.7
3.8
4.7
4.6
4.4
2.8
3.6
3.2
3.8
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
3.1
4.1
3.7
3.3
3.6
3.5
3.7
4.3
4.2
3.0
2.2
3.4
2.7
3.9
3.9
3.0
4.8
4.5
4.0
4.4
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.2
4.3
3.3
4.7
4.1
3.2
2.8
3.6
2.1
4.3
3.1
3.2
4.2
2002 March p
Junep
Sept P
2.5
4.6
2.6
4.4
3.9
2.5
4.2
3.3
3.9
4.8
4.2
3.7
5.0
4.6
4.6
3.1
3.4
2.6
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.6
3.4
3.0
2.8
Perinatal mortality (stillbirths and deaths under 1 week per 1,000 total births)3
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
10.5
9.2
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.1
8.6
8.9
8.7
8.7
9.2
8.3
8.3
9.2
8.3
8.5
8.7
7.7
8.0
7.8
10.1
10.2
9.6
9.3
9.9
7.7
7.5
7.3
7.4
7.0
9.7
9.6
9.0
9.0
9.0
7.7
7.8
7.3
6.8
6.9
7.4
7.5
8.7
7.3
7.8
2000
2001
8.5
7.8
8.6
8.7
9.6
7.5
7.8
7.9
9.6
9.1
7.1
7.1
9.0
8.9
6.6
6.9
6.6
7.2
2000 Dec
7.9
8.7
9.5
9.1
9.4
7.7
8.7
5.7
7.2
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
7.6
7.9
8.0
7.6
7.7
8.8
8.7
9.4
9.7
7.3
5.8
7.5
6.8
8.7
7.7
8.3
9.8
8.6
8.7
9.1
7.1
7.2
7.2
6.8
9.4
8.9
8.4
8.9
6.7
6.2
7.6
6.9
7.8
7.1
5.4
8.7
2002 March p
Junep
Sept P
6.3
7.0
7.8
8.7
8.6
8.1
10.3
9.5
7.8
9.2
8.7
7.7
11.4
9.9
9.3
7.2
7.4
7.5
9.0
9.9
8.8
7.7
6.9
6.3
6.8
6.9
6.8
Note: Figures represent the numbers of deaths occurring in each year with the exception of provisional data which relate to registrations.
1. The regions presented in this table have changed from the Regional Offices of the Department of Health to the Government Office Regions. See ‘In brief’ Health Statistics Quarterly no.15
for details.
2. Crude death rates for the quarters of 2002 are based on the mid-2001 population estimates.
3. In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth was changed, from a baby born dead after 28 completed weeks of gestation or more, to one born dead after 24 completed weeks of
gestation or more.
p Provisional registrations.
National Statistics
58
Population Trends 111
Table 7.1
Spring 2003
International migration: age and sex
United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
All ages
Year and quarter
Persons
Males
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
200
191
153
250
337
103
100
83
120
162
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
321
321
331
341
402
1999
2000
0–14
Persons
Males
Females
97
91
71
130
175
33
32
30
45
49
17
16
16
22
21
17
17
14
23
28
165
176
165
177
214
156
145
167
164
187
36
30
33
41
35
22
21
14
20
16
450
482
248
274
202
208
34
28
1999 Sept
Dec
179
86
102
42
77
45
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
100
98
188
97
59
51
109
54
2001 March p
Junep
100
115
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Females
Persons
65
64
48
79
110
28
32
24
34
50
37
32
24
45
60
81
77
60
101
145
14
9
19
21
18
102
116
119
135
139
43
55
52
61
68
59
61
67
73
71
20
14
14
14
161
162
80
82
15
4
10
1
5
3
72
28
41
47
79
42
7
4
12
4
4
2
6
2
3
3
6
2
56
68
44
47
8
9
4
6
240
210
233
213
264
124
118
133
107
134
116
93
100
106
130
51
40
49
37
43
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
213
212
238
249
224
104
113
117
134
113
109
99
121
115
111
1999
2000
268
299
144
165
86
66
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
2001 March p
Junep
Males
45 and over
Females
Persons
Males
Females
48
43
34
49
76
33
34
26
51
69
21
18
15
25
33
10
9
9
16
15
11
9
7
10
18
153
148
148
137
202
82
83
81
79
115
71
64
67
57
87
30
28
31
28
26
18
17
18
16
15
12
11
13
13
11
81
80
225
248
130
151
96
97
30
44
18
27
12
17
36
15
36
13
82
48
49
22
32
26
10
7
6
4
4
3
32
30
70
32
16
14
38
15
16
17
32
17
51
51
91
53
31
29
56
32
20
22
35
21
10
12
14
7
7
6
8
5
3
6
6
3
4
3
29
32
17
17
12
15
57
62
30
36
27
26
6
12
5
9
2
3
26
20
25
17
19
24
21
24
20
24
64
52
51
47
67
28
26
29
19
34
36
25
22
28
33
99
97
108
98
124
57
59
64
55
64
42
38
44
43
60
27
21
25
32
31
12
12
14
17
17
15
9
11
15
14
28
31
36
27
23
17
15
15
14
14
12
16
21
12
9
54
60
55
76
62
21
26
20
39
25
33
34
35
37
36
105
94
127
122
115
55
57
70
66
61
51
37
57
56
55
25
26
21
24
24
11
14
13
14
13
14
12
8
9
11
124
134
26
24
19
10
7
14
76
74
36
39
40
34
135
166
72
96
63
70
31
35
17
19
15
16
44
36
43
30
12
4
9
2
2
2
27
18
12
9
15
9
39
36
19
21
19
15
9
8
3
4
6
4
64
60
104
71
36
38
56
34
28
23
47
36
6
4
9
4
3
2
4
2
3
3
6
2
12
16
30
16
6
10
17
6
6
5
12
10
38
36
49
44
24
23
26
24
14
13
23
20
8
4
16
6
4
3
9
3
4
2
6
3
52
57
27
29
25
28
4
6
2
3
2
3
11
12
4
6
6
6
30
30
16
16
14
14
7
8
4
4
3
4
– 40
– 19
– 79
+ 37
+ 73
– 22
– 18
– 50
+ 13
+ 28
– 19
–1
– 29
+ 24
+ 45
– 17
–8
– 19
+8
+6
– 10
–4
–9
+5
+2
–8
–4
– 10
+3
+4
+1
+ 12
–2
+ 32
+ 43
–
+6
–5
+ 15
+ 16
+1
+7
+2
+ 18
+ 27
– 18
– 20
– 48
+3
+ 22
– 10
– 16
– 31
–- 5
+ 12
–9
–4
– 18
+8
+ 10
–6
–3
– 10
–7
+2
–2
–3
–5
–1
–2
–4
–
–4
–6
+4
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
+ 109
+ 109
+ 93
+ 92
+ 178
+ 61
+ 63
+ 47
+ 43
+ 101
+ 48
+ 46
+ 46
+ 49
+ 77
+8
–2
–3
+ 14
+ 12
+6
+5
–1
+6
+3
+3
–7
–2
+8
+9
+ 48
+ 55
+ 64
+ 58
+ 77
+ 22
+ 29
+ 32
+ 22
+ 43
+ 27
+ 27
+ 32
+ 36
+ 35
+ 48
+ 53
+ 21
+ 15
+ 86
+ 27
+ 26
+ 11
+ 13
+ 54
+ 21
+ 27
+ 10
+1
+ 32
+5
+2
+ 10
+5
+2
+7
+3
+4
+1
+2
–2
–1
+6
+3
–
1999
2000
+ 182
+ 183
+ 103
+109
+ 78
+ 74
+8
+4
+1
+4
+7
–
+ 85
+ 89
+ 44
+ 43
+ 41
+ 46
+ 90
+ 82
+ 58
+ 55
+ 33
+ 27
–1
+9
+1
+8
–3
+1
1999 Sept
Dec
+ 93
+ 20
+ 58
+5
+ 35
+ 15
+3
–
+1
–1
+2
+1
+ 46
+9
+ 24
+5
+ 21
+4
+ 43
+ 12
+ 30
+1
+ 13
+ 11
+1
–2
+3
–
–2
–1
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
+ 35
+ 38
+ 84
+ 26
+ 22
+ 14
+ 53
+ 20
+ 13
+ 24
+ 32
+6
+1
–
+3
–
+1
–
+2
+1
–
–
+1
–
+ 20
+ 14
+ 41
+ 16
+ 11
+3
+ 21
+9
+ 10
+ 11
+ 20
+6
+ 13
+ 15
+ 42
+9
+7
+7
+ 30
+9
+6
+9
+ 12
+1
+2
+8
–1
+1
+3
+4
–1
+2
–2
+4
–1
–1
2001 March p
Junep
+ 49
+ 58
+ 29
+ 39
+ 19
+ 20
+4
+3
+2
+3
+2
–
+ 18
+ 20
+ 13
+ 11
+5
+9
+ 27
+ 32
+ 14
+ 20
+ 13
+ 12
–1
+4
–
+5
–1
–1
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
Persons
25–44
Males
1999 Sept
Dec
Females
15–24
p Provisional.
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and prior to 1991 exclude migration between the UK and the Irish Republic.They also exclude persons
seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in this table include all three categories of migrants using
data from the Home Office and the Irish Central Statistics Office. For adjustments required to pre -1991 figures, see Notes to Tables.
These statistics are subject to revision in light of the Census results. See Notes to tables on page 66.
59
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Table 7.2
Spring 2003
International migration: country of last or next residence
United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Commonwealth countries
Other foreign countries
All
countries
European
Union1
Australia,
New
Zealand,
Canada
South
Africa
India,
Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka2
Pakistan2
Caribbean
Other
USA
Middle
East3
Other3
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
200
191
153
250
337
21
33
25
72
94
52
40
20
30
49
8
9
3
18
8
24
15
18
16
18
:
12
9
10
14
5
4
3
5
5
36
32
19
25
43
22
16
17
26
27
–
7
11
15
11
31
23
27
34
67
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
321
321
331
341
401
96
89
98
103
106
35
41
41
45
71
10
5
12
14
22
17
18
16
23
19
10
9
12
9
10
3
3
5
5
6
41
42
35
34
34
32
29
35
25
40
12
14
14
15
13
65
72
64
67
81
1999
2000
450
482
99
96
65
66
30
23
26
35
11
15
6
6
37
49
31
25
15
28
130
139
1999 Sept
Dec
179
86
45
17
17
13
6
8
9
5
4
2
2
1
16
7
14
5
7
3
59
25
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
100
98
188
97
24
18
41
13
16
15
16
19
4
4
12
3
8
9
11
6
2
3
6
4
1
1
2
1
6
10
21
11
4
6
10
5
4
4
11
5
32
27
59
28
2001 Marchp
Junep
100
115
16
21
19
21
3
6
8
9
3
6
2
2
9
11
7
5
6
5
28
31
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
240
210
232
213
264
31
39
33
62
92
99
63
78
50
56
21
21
23
2
7
8
4
2
4
5
:
2
1
2
3
8
3
3
2
2
23
17
20
13
19
17
21
25
34
34
:
6
23
16
13
34
33
23
28
34
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
213
212
238
249
224
71
72
90
90
81
40
45
51
50
49
6
6
5
8
6
2
2
4
4
3
3
2
1
2
1
3
2
1
3
2
17
13
21
20
13
26
29
25
27
26
11
9
6
11
7
33
33
33
34
36
1999
2000
268
299
99
99
64
73
8
9
2
3
–
2
2
2
13
14
34
34
9
13
36
49
86
66
39
16
17
23
3
2
–
1
–
–
1
1
4
3
10
9
2
3
11
10
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
64
60
104
71
20
29
36
15
17
11
23
22
2
1
2
3
1
–
1
1
–
–
1
–
1
–
–
1
3
1
5
4
9
5
13
8
2
2
5
4
9
10
18
12
2001 Marchp
Junep
52
57
15
22
19
15
2
2
1
1
–
1
–
–
1
4
4
5
1
1
9
6
– 40
– 19
– 79
+ 37
+ 73
– 10
–6
–8
+9
+2
– 46
– 23
– 58
– 21
–6
– 13
– 12
– 20
+ 16
+2
+ 16
+ 12
+ 15
+ 12
+ 13
:
+ 10
+8
+8
+ 11
–3
–
+1
+3
+4
+ 14
+ 15
-2
+ 12
+ 24
+6
–4
–8
–8
–7
:
+1
– 12
–
–2
–3
– 10
+5
+6
+ 33
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
+ 109
+ 109
+ 93
+ 92
+ 178
+ 25
+ 18
+7
+ 13
+ 24
–5
–4
– 10
–5
+ 22
+4
–1
+7
+6
+ 16
+ 15
+ 16
+ 13
+ 19
+ 15
+7
+8
+ 11
+7
+9
–
+1
+4
+2
+5
+ 24
+ 29
+ 14
+ 14
+ 21
+6
–
+ 10
–2
+ 14
+1
+5
+8
+4
+6
+ 31
+ 39
+ 30
+ 33
+ 45
1999
2000
+ 182
+ 183
–
–3
+1
–8
+ 22
+ 15
+ 24
+ 32
+ 11
+ 13
+4
+4
+ 24
+ 35
–3
–9
+6
+ 14
+ 94
+ 91
1999 Sept
Dec
+ 93
+ 20
+6
+1
–
–9
+3
+6
+9
+5
+4
+2
+1
–
+ 12
+4
+4
–4
+5
–
+ 49
+ 15
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
+ 35
+ 38
+ 84
+ 26
+4
– 11
+5
–1
–1
+4
–7
–3
+2
+3
+ 10
–
+6
+9
+ 10
+5
+1
+3
+5
+4
+1
+1
+2
–
+3
+9
+ 16
+7
–5
+2
–3
–3
+2
+1
+5
+2
+ 23
+ 17
+ 41
+ 15
2001 Marchp
Junep
+ 49
+ 58
–
–1
–
+6
+1
+4
+7
+8
+3
+5
+2
+2
+8
+7
+2
–1
+5
+5
+ 20
+ 25
Year and quarter
1999 Sept
Dec
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
p Provisional.
Note: Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and prior to 1991 exclude migration between the UK and the Irish Republic.They also exclude persons
seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the figures in this table include all three categories of migrants using
data from the Home Office and the Irish Central Statistics Office. For adjustments required to pre -1991 figures, see Notes to tables.
1 For 1971 the European Union figures are for the original six countries only. From 1976 onwards the European Union is as currently constituted.
2 For 1971 Pakistan is included with India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
3 For 1971 Middle East is included in the Other Category of Other Foreign Countries.
These statistics are subject to revision in light of the Census results. See Notes to tables on page 66.
National Statistics
60
Population Trends 111
Table 7.3
Spring 2003
International migration: citizenship
United Kingdom
Numbers (thousands)
Citizenship (numbers)
British citizens as
percentage of all
Year and quarter
All countries
British
Non-British
European
Union1
Commonwealth
Other
citizens
foreign
All
Old
New
Inflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
200
191
153
250
337
92
87
60
120
117
108
104
93
130
220
..
19
12
36
50
53
57
43
50
88
17
17
12
19
29
36
40
31
31
58
54
28
38
44
82
46
45
39
48
35
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
321
321
331
341
401
118
91
104
97
111
204
229
228
244
290
48
59
69
71
78
81
88
83
97
113
24
30
32
35
60
57
58
51
62
53
74
83
75
76
100
37
28
31
28
28
1999
2000
450
482
118
106
332
376
66
63
123
151
57
60
66
91
143
163
26
22
1999 Sept
Dec
179
86
41
26
138
60
32
10
40
23
13
11
28
12
66
27
23
30
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
100
98
188
97
18
31
39
18
81
67
149
79
19
7
28
10
29
29
54
37
13
10
21
16
15
19
23
21
34
31
67
32
18
32
21
18
2001 March p
Junep
100
115
25
27
75
89
9
11
33
43
14
20
19
23
33
35
25
23
Outflow
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
240
210
232
213
264
171
137
164
132
141
69
73
68
81
123
..
18
16
13
52
29
30
29
29
31
13
16
14
19
17
16
13
15
10
14
40
25
24
40
39
71
65
71
62
54
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
213
212
238
249
224
114
122
143
135
115
98
90
96
114
109
39
37
43
52
47
27
26
28
34
29
12
16
16
18
19
14
9
12
16
10
33
28
25
28
33
54
57
60
54
51
1999
2000
268
299
127
152
142
146
58
55
38
43
29
31
10
12
45
48
47
51
86
66
42
26
45
40
22
12
9
14
5
12
4
2
13
13
48
39
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
64
60
104
71
34
31
53
34
30
29
50
37
12
17
18
7
10
5
12
16
7
4
9
10
2
1
3
6
8
6
20
14
54
52
51
47
2001 March p
Junep
52
57
31
28
20
29
7
13
8
11
7
8
1
2
5
6
61
49
– 40
– 19
– 79
+ 37
+ 73
– 79
– 50
– 104
– 11
– 24
+ 39
+ 31
+ 24
+ 49
+ 98
..
+1
–4
+ 22
–2
+ 24
+ 27
+ 14
+ 21
+ 56
+4
+1
–2
+0
+ 12
+ 20
+ 27
+ 16
+ 21
+ 44
+ 14
+3
+ 15
+5
+ 43
:
:
:
:
:
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
+ 109
+ 109
+ 93
+ 92
+ 178
+4
– 30
– 39
– 38
–3
+ 105
+ 139
+ 132
+ 130
+ 181
+ 10
+ 23
+ 27
+ 19
+ 30
+ 54
+ 62
+ 55
+ 62
+ 84
+ 11
+ 13
+ 16
+ 16
+ 41
+ 43
+ 49
+ 39
+ 46
+ 43
+ 41
+ 55
+ 50
+ 48
+ 66
:
:
:
:
:
1999
2000
+ 182
+ 183
–8
– 47
+ 190
+ 230
+7
+8
+ 85
+ 108
+ 29
+ 29
+ 57
+ 78
+ 97
+ 115
:
:
1999 Sept
Dec
+ 93
+ 20
–1
–
+ 93
+ 20
+ 10
–3
+ 32
+9
+8
–1
+ 24
+ 10
+ 52
+ 14
:
:
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
+ 35
+ 38
+ 84
+ 26
– 16
–
– 14
– 16
+ 52
+ 38
+ 99
+ 42
+7
– 10
+9
+2
+ 19
+ 24
+ 42
+ 21
+6
+6
+ 12
+5
+ 13
+ 18
+ 30
+ 16
+ 26
+ 25
+ 47
+ 19
:
:
:
:
2001 March p
Junep
+ 49
+ 58
–6
–1
+ 55
+ 60
+2
–2
+ 25
+ 32
+7
+ 11
+ 18
+ 21
+ 27
+ 29
:
:
1999 Sept
Dec
Balance
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
p Provisional.
Note: All citizenship groups for 1976 onwards are as currently constituted. Figures in this table are derived from the International Passenger Survey and prior to 1991 exclude migration
between the UK and the Irish Republic. They also exclude persons seeking asylum after entering the country and other short-term visitors granted extensions of stay. From 1991, the
figures in this table include all three categories of migrants using data from the Home Office and the Irish Central Statistics Office. For adjustment required to pre -1991 figures, see
Notes to tables.
1 For 1971 citizens of the European Union are included in Other Foreign category. From 1976 onwards the European Union is as currently constituted.
These statistics are subject to revision in light of the Census results. See Notes to tables on page 66.
61
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Table 8.1
Spring 2003
Internal migration
Recorded movements between constituent countries of the United Kingdom and Government Office Regions of England
Numbers (thousands)
Government Office Regions of England
Year and quarter
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern North East
North
Ireland
West and
Merseyside
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East
London
South
East
Inflow
1976
1981
1986
1991
105.4
93.7
115.6
95.8
52.0
44.6
55.2
51.5
50.4
45.4
43.9
55.8
9.7
6.8
8.8
12.5
39.2
31.1
36.5
40.2
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
103.4
108.1
111.1
110.9
111.2
52.0
54.7
55.3
58.5
56.3
51.7
48.5
47.0
55.3
52.6
10.9
14.1
11.4
10.2
11.7
1999
2000
2001
111.7
108.6
104.2
58.0
59.5
60.0
50.9
48.8
56.5
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
21.5
23.2
34.6
24.8
11.5
12.7
22.2
13.6
2002 March
21.0
Outflow
1976
1981
1986
1991
South
West
93.0
79.3
90.0
96.1
78.2
68.3
78.6
85.0
84.0
76.6
101.9
89.6
75.7
66.9
87.1
82.7
146.3
121.4
144.6
122.1
..
155.0
182.8
148.8
215.4
201.8
243.3
197.6
123.8
108.3
148.8
120.7
37.1
37.9
38.6
38.6
39.0
99.7
103.7
105.0
106.5
104.0
87.6
90.8
90.8
92.6
93.0
96.4
101.3
102.1
107.7
107.9
84.8
90.0
90.6
92.7
93.4
130.6
134.6
139.5
145.0
142.8
160.4
170.7
168.0
167.3
173.9
215.5
218.6
228.0
229.6
226.1
127.7
131.6
138.5
144.0
138.7
11.6
11.2
12.7
38.7
39.2
40.4
105.4
106.2
106.3
95.2
96.5
96.5
111.3
112.1
115.5
93.7
94.3
95.3
148.4
145.8
147.2
162.9
163.0
159.7
228.6
224.2
223.8
143.2
140.1
143.3
12.5
13.6
17.8
12.7
2.9
3.4
3.3
3.1
7.4
8.1
15.9
8.9
21.0
23.1
37.2
25.0
17.3
19.6
38.4
21.2
21.0
24.5
43.5
26.6
18.7
20.2
33.5
23.0
30.2
34.1
47.1
35.7
35.9
36.8
49.4
37.6
44.5
49.5
76.9
52.8
27.9
32.0
48.1
35.3
12.8
9.0
3.2
7.9
21.8
18.7
23.0
19.8
31.4
35.0
45.4
29.0
104.8
91.5
100.7
112.2
43.9
41.8
49.8
47.4
54.5
47.7
57.9
46.7
14.2
9.4
15.1
9.3
40.2
39.1
45.6
40.9
102.9
98.6
115.8
104.9
78.5
73.3
90.5
85.4
77.2
71.7
84.8
81.4
89.5
78.4
94.8
87.9
115.6
104.4
128.1
113.0
..
187.0
232.4
202.1
181.7
166.0
204.1
184.6
94.7
88.0
102.5
98.9
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
106.3
107.9
105.3
114.8
111.3
50.4
53.1
53.3
54.4
54.2
49.0
52.0
54.5
53.2
53.8
12.2
12.3
11.8
12.6
12.4
43.5
45.6
44.5
44.5
43.7
109.8
115.8
114.0
117.5
115.8
91.9
97.6
98.2
100.0
97.9
86.2
91.9
94.3
97.4
97.3
95.1
98.1
101.0
103.7
100.9
115.5
118.7
121.1
124.8
125.0
206.3
207.6
213.4
221.7
217.9
190.4
195.8
198.9
205.7
209.4
103.9
108.0
109.8
112.4
110.9
1999
2000
2001
111.6
110.8
120.4
53.3
52.1
51.5
54.9
53.3
50.4
12.5
11.9
11.1
43.8
42.9
42.6
114.9
111.3
110.4
97.0
95.7
95.6
96.4
94.9
95.6
101.8
101.5
101.6
125.8
124.6
127.1
228.3
231.5
244.2
208.7
210.5
216.4
110.7
110.7
110.7
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
25.0
27.7
40.5
27.3
10.4
11.6
17.8
11.7
10.7
11.7
15.9
12.1
2.2
1.9
3.7
3.2
8.7
9.9
14.5
9.5
22.0
24.8
38.6
24.9
18.8
21.5
33.4
21.8
18.6
21.9
33.1
21.9
19.9
22.2
36.4
23.1
24.8
26.9
45.8
29.6
49.5
53.4
80.0
61.3
43.0
47.7
74.7
51.0
21.9
24.1
39.2
25.6
2002 March
23.0
10.1
10.6
2.3
8.3
21.6
18.8
19.1
20.0
25.6
55.0
44.0
21.7
Balance
1976
1981
1986
1991
+ 0.6
+ 2.1
+14.9
–16.4
+
+
+
+
8.1
2.7
5.4
4.0
– 4.1
– 2.3
–14.1
+ 9.2
–
–
–
+
4.5
2.5
6.3
3.2
–
–
–
–
1.0
8.0
9.1
0.7
– 9.8
–19.3
–25.8
– 8.8
– 0.3
– 5.0
–11.9
– 0.4
+ 6.8
+ 4.9
+17.1
+ 8.1
–13.8
–11.6
– 7.8
– 5.2
+30.7
+17.0
+16.5
+ 9.1
..
– 32.0
– 49.6
– 53.3
+33.7
+35.8
+39.2
+13.0
+29.1
+20.3
+46.4
+21.8
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
–
+
+
–
–
+
+
+
+
+
1.5
1.6
2.0
4.1
2.1
+
–
–
+
–
–
+
–
–
–
1.2
1.8
0.4
2.4
0.8
–
–
–
–
–
6.4
7.7
5.9
5.9
4.8
–10.1
–12.1
– 9.0
–11.0
–11.8
–
–
–
–
–
4.4
6.8
7.4
7.3
4.9
+10.2
+ 9.4
+ 7.8
+10.3
+10.6
–10.3
– 8.1
–10.4
–11.1
– 7.4
+15.1
+15.9
+18.3
+20.3
+17.7
–
–
–
–
–
45.9
36.9
45.4
54.4
44.0
+25.1
+22.7
+29.1
+23.8
+16.7
+23.8
+23.6
+28.7
+31.6
+27.8
1999
2000
2001
+ 0.1
– 2.2
–16.3
+ 4.7
+ 7.4
+ 8.5
– 4.0
– 4.5
+ 6.1
– 0.8
– 0.7
+ 1.6
– 5.1
– 3.7
– 2.3
– 9.5
– 5.1
– 4.1
– 1.8
+ 0.8
+ 0.9
+14.9
+17.2
+19.9
– 8.1
– 7.2
– 6.3
+22.6
+21.2
+20.1
– 65.4
– 68.6
– 84.5
+19.8
+13.8
+ 7.4
+32.6
+29.3
+32.6
2001 March
June
Sept
Dec
–
–
–
–
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
–
–
–
–
+
–
–
–
–
+
–
–
+
–
1.5
1.9
5.0
0.7
+ 2.3
+ 2.6
+10.3
+ 4.7
–
–
–
–
+
+
+
+
–
–
–
–
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
2002 March
– 2.0
– 0.1
+ 3.9
– 0.1
2.9
0.2
5.8
3.8
0.1
3.5
4.5
5.9
2.5
1.1
1.1
4.3
2.0
+ 2.7
2.6
3.5
7.5
2.2
1.2
1.8
1.9
1.9
0.6
– 1.7
0.6
1.5
0.4
0.1
+ 1.0
1.3
1.8
1.4
0.6
– 0.4
1.0
1.8
1.5
0.1
+ 0.2
1.2
2.0
3.0
0.1
Notes: Figures are derived from re-registrations recorded at the National Health Service Central Register.
See Notes to tables for effects of computerisation of National Health Service Central Register at Southport on time series data.
Figures have been adjusted for minor changes caused by database realignment during HA reorganisation. See Notes to tables.
These statistics are subject to revision in light of the Census results. See Notes to tables on page 66.
National Statistics
62
5.3
7.2
1.3
6.2
+ 5.8
13.5
16.7
30.6
23.7
– 20.0
1.5
1.9
2.2
1.9
+ 1.3
6.0
7.9
8.9
9.8
+ 7.3
Population Trends 111
Table 9.1
Spring 2003
First marriages1 : age and sex
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
All ages
Persons marrying per 1,000 single population at ages
Per cent aged
under 20
Mean age 3
(years)
Median age
(years)
Year and quarter
Number
Rate2
16–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
308.8
339.1
343.6
274.4
259.1
74.9
78.9
82.3
62.8
51.7
16.6
22.1
26.1
18.5
11.1
159.1
168.6
167.7
123.7
94.1
182.8
185.4
167.3
132.5
120.8
91.9
91.1
84.6
78.7
70.3
39.8
36.4
33.8
32.0
31.1
9.3
8.6
8.0
7.1
5.4
6.9
9.9
10.1
9.8
7.2
25.6
24.9
24.6
25.1
25.4
24.0
23.4
23.4
23.7
24.1
1986
1991
253.0
222.8
44.6
37.0
6.0
3.4
63.5
42.2
104.3
77.5
73.7
64.6
30.9
29.5
4.8
4.8
3.8
2.1
26.3
27.5
25.1
26.5
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
206.1
198.2
193.3
188.3
186.3
33.1
31.2
29.8
28.4
27.5
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.7
30.5
27.2
24.3
22.0
20.2
69.1
64.0
60.0
56.4
54.4
56.9
54.9
53.9
52.5
52.2
30.4
30.3
30.5
29.9
28.9
5.1
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
28.5
28.9
29.3
29.6
29.8
27.5
27.9
28.3
28.6
28.9
1999
2000
2001p
184.3
186.1
175.7
26.6
26.2
24.7
1.7
1.6
1.5
18.2
17.4
18.8
52.0
49.5
45.6
51.9
51.8
50.1
28.5
29.3
29.1
5.6
6.0
5.8
1.2
1.2
1.1
30.1
30.5
30.6
29.2
29.6
29.7
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
20.8
51.0
80.0
31.4
12.2
29.5
46.3
17.9
1.3
1.6
2.3
1.5
9.7
19.6
30.9
12.2
21.3
58.8
95.5
31.8
22.8
57.8
91.0
35.2
14.2
31.3
45.4
22.6
3.4
6.2
7.7
5.0
2.1
1.0
0.9
1.6
30.2
30.2
29.9
30.6
29.3
29.2
29.0
29.6
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
19.9
51.3
85.5
29.4
11.3
29.0
47.8
16.5
1.3
1.5
2.3
1.4
8.7
18.6
31.0
11.2
19.0
55.4
95.4
28.1
20.7
58.0
95.4
32.9
13.9
32.4
50.0
20.8
3.7
7.0
8.5
4.8
2.1
1.0
0.9
1.6
30.7
30.5
30.2
30.8
29.6
29.6
29.4
29.9
2001 Marchp
Junep
Septp
Decp
18.7
49.9
78.1
29.0
10.7
28.2
43.6
16.2
1.1
1.5
1.9
1.3
8.1
17.5
27.0
10.5
17.7
53.5
84.3
26.4
20.2
56.8
89.6
33.3
13.3
32.4
48.5
21.7
3.4
6.6
8.0
5.2
2.0
1.0
0.8
1.5
30.7
30.6
30.4
31.1
29.7
29.7
29.6
30.2
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
312.3
342.7
347.4
276.5
263.4
83.0
89.3
97.0
76.9
64.0
77.0
82.6
92.9
66.7
41.5
261.1
263.7
246.5
185.4
140.8
162.8
153.4
167.0
140.7
120.2
74.6
74.1
75.7
77.6
67.0
29.8
30.2
30.3
31.6
28.7
4.6
4.3
4.8
4.0
2.8
28.7
32.5
31.1
31.1
24.0
23.1
22.5
22.6
22.8
23.1
21.6
21.2
21.4
21.5
21.9
1986
1991
256.8
224.8
55.7
46.6
24.1
14.0
102.4
73.0
108.8
90.6
67.1
62.7
28.6
28.1
2.7
4.6
13.9
7.9
24.1
25.5
23.1
24.6
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
206.3
198.6
192.7
188.5
187.4
41.6
39.3
37.3
35.6
34.6
9.5
8.9
8.0
7.4
7.1
56.3
50.6
45.5
42.3
39.6
84.4
80.6
77.2
74.0
72.1
58.5
56.2
56.3
55.2
55.6
28.5
28.5
28.7
28.0
27.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.7
4.7
26.5
26.8
27.2
27.5
27.7
25.7
26.0
26.4
26.7
27.0
1999
2000
2001p
185.3
187.7
177.5
33.5
33.1
31.3
6.6
6.4
5.5
36.5
34.9
32.6
70.1
67.8
63.0
56.0
57.6
56.1
26.8
27.5
27.8
3.6
4.0
3.9
4.4
4.2
3.9
28.0
28.2
28.4
27.3
27.5
27.7
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
20.6
51.4
82.0
31.4
15.1
37.2
58.7
22.5
4.9
6.7
9.1
5.5
16.7
39.9
66.5
22.5
27.5
79.5
129.3
43.3
24.5
63.0
95.0
40.7
14.3
29.5
40.4
22.6
2.4
3.6
4.8
3.4
7.4
4.1
3.5
5.5
28.0
28.0
27.8
28.4
27.2
27.3
27.1
27.8
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
19.9
51.5
86.9
29.5
14.1
36.6
61.0
20.7
4.5
6.6
9.2
5.4
15.5
37.6
66.2
20.0
24.9
76.0
131.1
38.6
23.9
64.3
103.1
38.7
13.3
30.3
45.8
20.6
2.5
4.6
5.4
3.7
7.0
3.9
3.3
5.7
28.2
28.3
28.1
28.6
27.3
27.6
27.4
28.0
2001 Marchp
Junep
Septp
Decp
18.6
50.6
79.3
29.0
13.3
35.8
55.5
20.3
4.0
5.8
7.5
4.7
14.5
37.1
59.1
19.4
23.3
73.7
118.0
36.4
22.7
63.7
97.6
39.7
13.4
31.0
44.2
22.4
2.5
4.4
5.1
3.7
6.5
3.6
3.0
5.1
28.4
28.4
28.2
28.9
27.5
27.7
27.6
28.2
1
2
3
p
45 and over
Figures for all marriages may be found in Table 2.1.
Per 1,000 single persons aged 16 and over.
The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no account of the changing age structure of the population.
Provisional.
See Notes to tables on page 66 and ‘in brief’ on page 3.
63
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Table 9.2
Spring 2003
Remarriages1: age, sex, and previous marital status
England and Wales
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
Remarriages of divorced persons
Remarriages of widowed
persons
Year and quarter
All ages
Persons remarrying per 1,000 divorced population at ages
Per cent
aged
under 35
Mean3
age
(years)
Median
age
(years)
Number
Rate4
Number
Rate 2
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
45 and over
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.8
26.7
42.4
67.2
79.1
162.9
192.2
227.3
178.8
129.5
478.6
737.8
525.2
656.8
240.7
473.6
522.5
509.0
359.7
260.9
351.6
403.1
390.7
266.8
205.8
198.3
244.4
251.3
187.9
141.9
88.6
89.4
124.8
94.0
63.9
33.9
40.8
42.8
46.7
46.1
40.5
39.3
39.8
38.4
38.1
39.2
37.4
37.0
36.0
35.9
19.1
18.7
18.7
16.9
13.8
28.8
28.3
27.5
24.7
19.7
1986
1991
83.4
74.9
90.8
62.4
138.6
79.0
157.8
106.6
141.0
97.8
105.8
72.0
49.9
38.4
38.5
34.3
39.1
40.3
37.7
39.0
11.6
9.0
16.7
12.3
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
76.6
77.0
78.0
76.8
74.0
54.2
52.0
50.6
47.9
44.6
102.2
115.8
112.8
133.8
151.9
98.3
95.8
96.7
95.1
91.9
89.3
87.4
84.7
83.0
77.2
62.8
61.4
60.7
58.3
55.7
34.8
33.2
32.9
31.1
29.2
31.5
30.3
28.2
27.0
24.8
41.1
41.3
41.7
42.0
42.4
39.6
39.8
40.2
40.5
40.8
8.4
7.8
7.7
7.4
6.9
11.5
10.7
10.6
10.2
9.6
1999
2000
2001p
72.6
75.4
67.7
42.3
42.6
38.2
142.3
138.2
118.9
91.9
89.5
68.8
76.3
77.1
67.8
53.3
55.2
50.4
27.9
28.6
25.9
23.3
20.8
19.7
42.7
43.2
43.5
41.2
41.8
42.0
6.6
6.5
5.8
9.2
8.2
8.1
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
10.5
20.1
26.4
15.6
24.8
47.0
61.1
36.0
132.5
142.7
181.4
112.3
61.0
99.7
132.1
74.2
43.4
83.7
117.5
59.9
29.2
59.7
79.2
44.7
17.3
31.1
38.0
25.1
23.9
22.9
24.4
21.7
43.1
42.8
42.3
43.3
41.6
41.3
40.7
41.9
1.0
2.0
2.0
1.5
6.4
11.1
11.1
8.1
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
10.5
21.2
29.0
14.8
23.8
47.9
65.2
33.3
121.7
135.2
167.1
128.7
58.6
99.2
137.3
62.4
39.7
85.4
127.0
56.1
29.3
61.5
88.2
41.5
16.9
32.7
40.6
24.1
20.6
20.4
21.8
19.3
43.7
43.3
42.7
43.9
42.2
42.0
41.2
42.6
1.1
1.9
2.1
1.3
5.7
9.5
10.8
6.8
2001 Marchp
Junep
Septp
Decp
9.2
19.2
25.3
13.9
21.2
43.6
56.6
31.2
90.3
134.8
141.7
108.4
44.9
74.0
102.0
53.9
35.2
76.6
108.3
50.5
26.0
57.2
77.9
39.9
15.4
30.0
35.5
22.6
19.7
19.4
20.9
18.3
44.0
43.5
42.9
44.1
42.7
42.2
41.4
42.8
0.9
1.7
1.9
1.3
5.2
9.5
10.7
7.0
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.0
25.1
39.6
65.1
75.1
97.1
114.7
134.0
122.2
90.7
542.2
567.8
464.4
458.9
257.5
409.6
411.2
359.0
272.3
202.1
250.2
254.8
232.7
188.0
142.9
111.5
135.9
139.8
124.0
95.5
35.6
37.8
49.3
40.9
29.0
46.8
52.4
57.0
59.8
57.9
37.2
36.2
35.7
34.9
35.1
35.9
34.3
33.0
32.4
33.4
16.5
16.8
17.7
17.0
13.5
6.5
6.3
6.3
5.9
4.6
1986
1991
80.0
73.4
68.7
50.3
190.6
111.9
156.2
118.1
111.7
89.7
75.5
55.3
24.4
20.9
51.2
47.4
36.0
37.1
34.7
35.7
11.2
8.6
3.8
2.9
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
76.9
76.9
78.9
77.1
73.3
45.7
43.8
43.4
41.0
37.8
131.1
131.1
146.9
155.5
151.4
107.3
103.0
102.9
101.0
97.1
86.4
85.3
85.2
81.2
76.6
52.3
52.2
52.8
51.1
48.5
20.4
19.5
20.0
19.1
17.9
44.4
42.8
40.8
39.0
37.1
37.9
38.1
38.6
38.9
39.3
36.3
36.6
37.1
37.4
37.9
7.9
7.5
7.3
7.0
6.6
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.3
1999
2000
2001p
72.0
74.1
66.1
36.0
35.9
32.0
146.0
143.4
115.0
91.5
93.0
74.2
73.7
74.1
65.7
48.2
49.5
45.1
17.2
17.7
16.0
34.7
32.0
30.7
39.7
40.1
40.4
38.3
38.9
39.2
6.2
6.2
5.6
2.2
2.3
2.0
1999 March
June
Sept
Dec
10.9
19.9
25.5
15.6
22.1
39.9
50.6
31.0
125.0
149.4
184.8
124.4
63.6
97.9
125.2
78.8
44.6
82.5
107.2
60.0
28.2
53.1
69.7
41.3
10.6
19.5
22.9
15.7
36.5
34.3
34.9
33.4
39.5
39.8
39.5
40.0
38.1
38.4
38.2
38.7
1.0
1.8
2.0
1.4
1.5
2.6
2.8
2.0
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
10.7
20.9
27.7
14.8
20.8
40.8
53.5
28.5
122.7
147.8
173.9
129.0
58.5
104.5
134.3
74.6
42.3
84.2
113.0
56.7
27.4
55.5
76.5
38.3
10.4
20.7
25.0
14.7
33.3
31.7
31.9
31.6
40.1
40.3
39.9
40.3
38.7
39.1
38.7
39.0
1.0
1.8
2.1
1.3
1.5
2.7
3.1
1.9
2001 Marchp
Junep
Septp
Decp
9.4
18.6
24.1
13.9
18.5
36.2
46.4
26.8
81.3
120.9
141.0
116.2
49.5
82.9
103.1
60.9
37.7
72.9
97.4
54.2
24.8
50.5
67.8
36.9
9.4
18.7
22.0
13.9
32.2
30.2
30.6
30.6
40.3
40.6
40.2
40.7
39.0
39.3
39.0
39.4
0.8
1.7
1.9
1.2
1.2
2.4
2.7
1.8
1
2
3
4
p
Figures for all marriages may be found in Table 2.1.
Per 1,000 divorced persons aged 16 and over.
The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no account of the changing age structure of the population.
Per 1,000 widowed persons aged 16 and over.
Provisional.
See Notes to tables on page 66 and ‘in brief’ on page 3.
National Statistics
64
Population Trends 111
Divorces: age and sex
Table 9.3
England and Wales
England and Wales
Year and
quarter
Spring 2003
Numbers (thousands), rates, percentages, mean and median age
Petitions
filed
Decrees made absolute
All
divorces
1st
marriage
Divorce decrees per 1,000 married population
2nd or
later
marriage
16 and over
16–24
25–29
30–34
35–44
Per cent
aged
45 and over
Mean age
at divorce1
under 35
Median
age at
divorce
Numbers
Males
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
13.7
18.3
44.2
43.3
46.7
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
23.5
36.4
69.3
115.7
127.6
1.9
2.7
5.2
11.0
18.1
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
1.4
2.6
5.0
13.6
17.7
3.9
6.8
12.5
21.4
27.6
4.1
6.8
11.8
18.9
22.8
3.1
4.5
7.9
14.1
17.0
1.1
1.5
3.1
4.5
4.8
38.3
44.2
44.8
48.6
48.6
..
38.6
39.4
38.0
37.7
..
36.4
36.6
35.4
35.4
1986
1991
49.7
..
153.9
158.7
128.0
129.8
25.9
29.0
12.9
13.5
30.9
25.4
31.2
31.0
25.1
27.8
18.0
20.0
5.2
5.6
45.6
42.7
37.8
38.6
36.2
37.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
..
..
..
..
..
155.5
157.1
146.7
145.2
144.6
125.1
125.8
117.3
116.0
115.1
30.4
31.3
29.4
29.2
29.4
13.6
13.9
13.0
13.0
13.0
30.9
32.2
30.4
30.4
29.0
31.6
33.2
31.4
32.2
31.5
29.0
29.6
28.3
28.3
28.4
21.4
21.9
20.9
21.3
21.7
6.2
6.4
6.1
6.1
6.3
38.7
37.5
35.9
34.3
32.1
39.6
39.8
40.2
40.4
40.9
37.9
38.1
38.4
38.7
39.2
2000
2001P
..
..
141.1
143.8
112.1
114.3
29.1
29.5
12.7
13.0
27.7
25.0
30.0
27.5
27.8
27.7
21.7
22.7
6.3
6.5
29.9
28.4
41.3
41.5
39.7
40.0
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
.
2001 March p
Junep
Sept p
Decp
..
..
..
..
36.5
35.8
34.4
34.4
29.0
28.4
27.3
27.3
7.4
7.4
7.1
7.1
13.3
13.0
12.3
12.3
29.5
28.4
26.2
26.9
32.3
31.1
28.5
28.2
29.0
28.8
27.1
26.4
22.5
21.9
21.0
21.2
6.6
6.4
6.1
6.1
30.1
30.4
29.8
29.3
41.2
41.2
41.3
41.3
39.6
39.5
39.7
39.8
..
..
..
..
36.1
36.0
35.4
36.3
28.8
28.4
28.2
28.9
7.3
7.6
7.3
7.4
13.2
13.0
12.7
13.0
25.6
25.8
23.9
24.7
29.3
27.3
25.9
27.5
28.2
27.8
27.4
27.4
22.8
22.6
22.5
22.9
6.6
6.6
6.3
6.5
28.8
28.3
28.3
28.1
41.4
41.6
41.5
41.6
39.9
40.1
39.9
40.0
2002 March p
Junep
Sept p
..
..
..
35.8
37.3
37.9
28.3
29.6
29.9
7.5
7.7
8.0
13.1
13.5
13.6
26.5
25.6
26.7
25.2
25.9
25.7
26.9
27.6
27.5
23.2
24.0
23.9
6.8
7.0
7.1
27.0
26.8
26.6
41.8
41.8
41.9
40.3
40.4
40.5
Females
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
18.2
28.3
66.7
101.5
123.5
25.4
39.1
74.4
126.7
145.7
23.4
36.2
69.3
115.9
127.7
2.0
2.8
5.1
10.8
18.0
2.1
3.2
5.9
10.1
11.9
2.4
4.1
7.5
14.5
22.3
4.5
7.6
13.0
20.4
26.7
3.8
6.1
10.5
18.3
20.2
2.7
3.9
6.7
12.6
14.9
0.9
1.2
2.8
4.0
3.9
49.3
54.7
54.4
56.6
58.0
..
35.8
36.8
36.0
35.2
..
33.6
33.6
33.1
33.2
1986
1991
130.7
..
153.9
158.7
128.8
130.9
25.1
27.8
12.9
13.4
30.7
28.7
28.6
30.7
22.0
25.0
15.8
17.3
4.1
4.5
55.0
52.7
35.3
36.0
33.6
34.3
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
..
..
..
..
..
155.5
157.1
146.7
145.2
144.6
126.0
126.9
118.3
116.8
115.4
29.5
30.2
28.4
28.5
29.1
13.5
13.8
13.0
12.9
12.9
33.2
34.4
31.9
32.9
30.3
32.3
33.9
32.3
32.8
32.3
26.7
27.6
26.4
26.8
27.3
18.8
19.2
18.5
18.8
19.4
4.9
5.1
4.9
4.9
5.1
48.8
47.7
45.9
44.3
41.7
37.0
37.3
37.7
37.9
38.4
35.3
35.6
36.0
36.3
36.9
2000
2001P
..
..
141.1
143.8
112.6
114.6
28.5
29.2
12.7
12.9
29.6
28.4
31.1
28.8
27.1
27.2
19.3
20.4
5.2
5.4
39.6
37.8
38.8
39.1
37.3
37.7
2000 March
June
Sept
Dec
..
..
..
..
36.5
35.8
34.4
34.4
29.2
28.4
27.5
27.6
7.3
7.4
7.0
6.9
13.3
12.9
12.3
12.3
32.9
29.1
28.0
28.6
33.2
32.4
29.6
29.2
28.1
28.0
26.1
26.3
20.0
19.5
18.8
18.9
5.5
5.2
5.1
5.0
39.9
40.1
39.2
39.3
38.7
38.7
38.9
38.9
37.3
37.2
37.5
37.4
2001 March p
Junep
Sept p
Decp
..
..
..
..
36.1
36.0
35.4
36.3
28.8
28.5
28.3
29.0
7.3
7.5
7.1
7.3
13.1
13.0
12.6
12.9
30.1
28.2
27.2
28.3
30.5
29.1
27.6
28.3
27.5
27.2
27.0
27.0
20.5
20.4
20.1
20.7
5.5
5.5
5.2
5.4
38.3
37.7
37.9
37.3
39.0
39.2
39.1
39.1
37.6
37.8
37.7
37.8
2002 March P
JuneP
Sept P
..
..
..
35.8
37.3
37.9
28.5
29.7
30.1
7.3
7.7
7.8
13.0
13.4
13.5
28.9
30.2
29.7
26.9
27.4
27.7
26.6
27.1
26.9
21.1
21.9
22.0
5.6
5.8
5.9
36.2
35.9
35.6
39.4
39.4
39.5
38.0
38.2
38.2
1 The mean ages shown in this table are not standardised for age and therefore take no account of the changing age structure of the population.
p Provisional.
See Notes to tables on page 66 and ‘in brief’ on page 3.
Divorce petitions entered by year and quarter 1995–2002
England and Wales
Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
Numbers (thousands)
March Qtr
46.8
45.5
35.6
43.0
June Qtr
41.9
44.5
43.7
40.3
Sept Qtr
45.7
45.3
44.0
42.1
Dec Qtr
Year
March Qtr
June Qtr
Sept Qtr
Dec Qtr
40.5
43.4
40.9
41.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
41.4
39.3
39.7
41.0
39.5
37.6
40.6
42.3
41.3
39.5
40.7
42.6
40.5
41.8
41.2
44.7
Note: The Divorce Reform Act 1969 became operative on 1 January 1971 – the Matrimonial and Family Proceedings Act came into effect on 12 October 1984.
Figures include petitions for nullity
Source: The Court Service.
65
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
Notes to tables
Time Series
For most tables, years start at 1971 and then continue
at five-year intervals until 1991. Individual years are
shown thereafter. If a year is not present the data are
not available.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom comprise’s England, Wales,
Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Channel Islands
and the Isle of Man are not part of the United
Kingdom.
Population
The estimated and projected populations of an area
include all those usually resident in the area,
whatever their nationality. Members of HM forces
stationed outside the United Kingdom are excluded.
Students are taken to be resident at their term-time
addresses.
The population estimates for mid-2001 are final
figures based on the 2001 Census of Population. For
details of rebased estimates following the results of
the 2001 Census, see Population Trends 110, page 2.
Live births
For England and Wales, figures relate to numbers
occurring in a period; for Scotland and Northern
Ireland, figures relate to those registered in a period.
Perinatal mortality
In October 1992 the legal definition of a stillbirth
was changed, from baby born dead after 28
completed weeks of gestation or more, to one born
dead after 24 completed weeks of gestation or more.
Expectation of life
The life tables on which these expectations are based
use current death rates to describe mortality levels for
each year. Each individual year shown is based on a
three-year period, so that for instance 1986
represents 1985–87. More details can be found in
Population Trends 60, page 23.
Deaths
Figures for England and Wales represent the
numbers of deaths registered in each year up to 1992,
and the number of deaths occurring in each year
from 1993, though provisional figures are
registrations. Figures for both Scotland and Northern
Ireland represent the number of deaths registered in
each year.
Age-standardised mortality
Directly age-standardised rates make allowances for
changes in the age structure of the population. The
age-standardised rate for a particular condition is that
which would have occurred if the observed agespecific rates for the condition had applied in a given
standard population. Table 2.2 uses the European
Standard Population. This is a hypothetical
population standard which is the same for both males
and females allowing standardised rates to be
compared for each sex, and between males and
females.
Migration
Figures in Tables 7.1–7.3 are derived from three data
sources:
1. The International Passenger Survey (IPS) is a
sample survey of all passengers travelling through
major air and seaports of the United Kingdom. The
IPS data exclude migration between the UK and the
National Statistics
66
Irish Republic. They also exclude persons seeking
asylum and short-term visitors granted extensions of
stay. Migration between the Channel Islands or the
Isle of Man and the rest of the world was previously
included in the total migration to the United
Kingdom. From 1988 this has been excluded.
2. The Home Office provides data on people who
entered the UK as asylum seekers, or as short-term
visitors who were subsequently granted an extension
of stay for a year or more, for example as asylum
seekers, students or on the basis of marriage.
3. Information on migration between the UK and the
Irish Republic from the Irish Labour Force Survey
and the National Health Service Central Register,
agreed between the Irish Central Statistics Office and
the ONS.
For years prior to 1991, the figures in Tables 7.1–7.3
are based only on data from the IPS. After taking
account of persons leaving the UK for a short-term
period who stayed overseas for longer than originally
intended, the adjustment needed to net migration
ranges from about 10 thousand in 1981 to just over
20 thousand in 1986. From 1991, the figures in
Tables 7.1–7.3 are based on data from all three
sources and represent Total International Migration.
Revisions to the historic series of population
estimates show that International Migration data
sources have overestimated the net inflow of
international migrants to the UK over the past
decade. ONS is currently revising the existing
international migration series for 1992 onwards.
Publication of these revised series is planned for
late Spring 2003.
A migrant into the United Kingdom is defined in
these tables as a passenger entering the United
Kingdom with the declared intention of residing here
for at least a year having lived abroad for at least a
year; and vice versa for a migrant from the United
Kingdom.
Old Commonwealth is defined as Australia, Canada,
New Zealand and South Africa; New Commonwealth
is defined as all other Commonwealth countries.
Middle East is defined as Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel,
Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
Figures in Table 8.1 are based on the movement of
NHS doctors’ patients between Health Authorities
(HAs) in England and Wales, and Area Health
Boards in Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Yearly and
quarterly figures have been adjusted to take account
of differences in recorded cross-border flows
between England and Wales, Scotland and Northern
Ireland.
Prior to re organisation of health authority databases
from Family Health Service Authorities (FHSAs) to
HAs some database boundaries were realigned. This
included in a few cases transferring patients between
databases to fit the new boundaries. For the most
part, this movement was done outside the NHSCR
system and therefore had no effect on migration data.
However a small number were transferred within the
system. As migration estimates derived from
NHSCR are the product of an administrative system
(when patients re register with GPs) this had the
effect of generating small numbers of spurious
migrants where no actual change of address had
taken place. We have been advised of adjustments
required to data by the Department of Health and
these have been made to migration data.
The NHS Central Register (NHSCR) at Southport
was computerised in early 1991, prior to which a
three month time lag was assumed between a person
moving and their re-registration with an NHS doctor
being processed onto the NHSCR. Since
computerisation, estimates of internal migration are
based on the date of acceptance of the new patient by
the H A (not previously available), and a one month
time lag assumed.
Marriages and divorces
Marriages are tabulated according to date of
solemnisation. Divorces are tabulated according to
date of decree absolute, and the term ‘divorces’
includes decrees of nullity. The fact that a marriage
or divorce has taken place in England and Wales
does not mean either of the parties is resident there.
Sources
Figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland have been
provided by the General Register Office for Scotland
and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research
Agency respectively, except for the projections in
Table 1.2 which are provided by the Government
Actuary. The International Passenger Survey (Tables
7.1–7.3) is conducted by the Social Survey Division
of ONS.
Rounding
All figures are rounded independently; constituent
parts may not add to totals. Generally numbers and
rates per 1,000 population are rounded to one
decimal place (e.g. 123.4); where appropriate, for
small figures (below 10.0), two decimal places are
given (e.g. 7.62). Figures which are provisional or
estimated are given in less detail (e.g. 123 or 7.6
respectively) if their reliability does not justify giving
the standard amount of detail. Where figures need to
be treated with particular caution, an explanation is
given as a footnote.
Latest figures
Figures for the latest quarters and years may be
provisional and will be updated in future issues when
later information becomes available. Where figures
are not yet available, cells are left blank.
Shaded background
Where available, the final revised population
estimates based on the 2001 Census of Population
have been incorporated into this edition of
Population Trends. Where they are not yet available,
the original estimates continue to be included or used
as denominators. The shaded background indicates
figures that are subject to revision when the relevant
rebased estimates are available.
As all the sub-national projections will be rebased in
due course, all projected figures in Table 1.3 are
shaded. These shaded figures are based on the
original mid-1996 population estimates and are
therefore not comparable with the rebased estimates
shown in the same table.
For further details of the rebased estimates
following the results of the 2001 Census, see ‘in
brief’ on page 3.
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
Report:
Marriages in England and
Wales, 2001
This report provides provisional summary statistics of marriages
solemnised in England and Wales during 2001, and compares them
with the figures for previous years. Full details of marriages in 2001
will be published later this year in the annual volume Marriage, divorce
and adoption statistics 2001 (Series FM2 No 29).
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
●
●
●
●
●
●
There were 249,227 marriages in 2001, seven per cent fewer than
in 2000 and 19 per cent fewer than in 1991 (Table 1).
Figure 1
The number of marriages taking place in approved premises
continued to increase, with nearly one in three of civil marriages
(one in five of all marriages) solemnised in this manner in 2001
(Table 1).
The marriage rate for men continued its downward trend, with 26
men marrying per 1,000 unmarried men in 2001, compared with
28 in 2000. The rate for women also fell, from 26 women
marrying per 1,000 unmarried women in 2000 to 24 in 2001
(Table 2).
Marriages where both parties were marrying for the first time
accounted for almost 60 per cent of all marriages in 2001
compared with just over 58 per cent in 2000. Altogether 82 per
cent of marriages in 2001 involved a person marrying for the first
time, compared with 83 per cent in 1991 (Tables 3 and 4).
Just over half of couples where the marriage was the first for both
parties chose a civil ceremony; among couples where both parties
had previously been married civil marriages accounted for 86 per
cent (Table 4).
Marriages by type of ceremony as a
percentage of all marriages, 1991–2001
England and Wales
70
The number of religious ceremonies fell by eight per cent
between 2000 and 2001, while civil marriages fell by six per cent
(Table 1). Civil ceremonies now account for nearly two-thirds of
all marriages, compared with just under half in 1991 (Figure 1).
60
Percentage of all marriages
●
Note: The marriage figures presented in this report do not include those
marriages of England and Wales residents which took place outside of
England and Wales.
All civil
marriages
50
40
Other civil
marriages
30
All religious
marriages
20
Approved
premises
10
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001*
Year
The average (mean) age at marriage has continued to increase for
both men and women. For single men, it increased from 30.5
years in 2000 to 30.6 years in 2001 while for single women the
corresponding rise was from 28.2 to 28.4 years. The mean age for
divorced men marrying in 2001 was 43.5 years and for divorced
women was 40.4 years, compared with 43.2 and 40.1 respectively
in 2000 (Table 5).
67
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Table 1
Spring 2003
Summary of marriages, 1981, 1991, 1997–2001
England and Wales
Numbers
Total marriages
Quarterly totals
March
June
September
December
Previous marital status
First marriage for both
First marriage for one
Remarriage for both
Manner of solemnisation
Civil ceremonies
of which:
in approved premises
Religious ceremonies
of which:
Church of England and Church in Wales
Roman Catholic
Nonconformist*
Other Christian bodies
Other
1981
1991
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
351,973
306,756
272,536
267,303
263,515
267,961
249,227
63,708
98,403
119,758
70,104
41,488
89,538
121,508
54,222
34,948
76,709
113,229
47,650
33,406
75,015
110,213
48,669
32,461
73,152
109,489
48,413
31,492
74,194
116,695
45,580
28,836
70,876
105,331
44,184
227,713
67,048
57,212
192,238
63,159
51,359
156,907
62,911
52,718
156,539
60,642
50,122
155,027
59,540
48,948
156,140
61,550
50,271
148,642
55,943
44,642
172,514
151,333
165,516
163,072
162,679
170,800
160,238
179,459
155,423
22,052
107,020
28,879
104,231
37,709
100,836
45,792
97,161
50,149
88,989
118,435
26,097
29,017
4,422
1,488
102,840
19,551
25,472
5,597
1,963
70,310
13,125
16,438
4,773
2,374
69,494
12,615
15,161
4,585
2,376
67,219
12,399
14,136
4,554
2,528
65,536
11,312
13,435
4,316
2,562
60,878
10,518
11,163
4,047
2,383
* In this table Nonconformist denominations are taken as the following: Methodist; Calvanistic Methodist; United Reformed Church; Congregationalist; and Baptist
Table 2
Marriage rates,*1991–2001
England and Wales
Rate per thousand
Year
All marriages
Persons
marrying
per 1,000
population
of all ages
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Men
marrying
per 1,000
unmarried
men aged
16 and over
12.0
12.2
11.8
11.4
11.0
10.8
10.6
10.4
10.2
10.4
9.6
38.6
38.5
36.4
34.8
33.1
31.9
30.4
29.2
28.1
27.9
26.0
Women
marrying
per 1,000
unmarried
women aged
16 and over
33.1
33.3
31.6
30.4
29.1
28.3
27.2
26.3
25.6
25.6
23.8
First marriages
Remarriages
Number marrying per
1,000 single population
aged 16 and over
Number marrying per
1,000 widowed or
divorced population
Bachelors
37.0
36.8
34.7
33.1
31.2
29.8
28.4
27.5
26.6
26.2
24.7
Spinsters
46.6
46.3
43.8
41.6
39.3
37.3
35.6
34.6
33.5
33.1
31.3
Men
43.5
43.7
41.3
39.7
38.4
37.7
36.2
34.0
32.5
32.9
29.5
Women
18.5
19.1
18.5
18.4
18.1
18.4
17.8
16.8
16.4
16.7
14.9
* The population estimates used as the denominators for the crude marriage rates have been revised to take account of the results of the 2001 Census. All other rates
presented in this table were calculated using the original mid-year population estimates by marital status, which take no account of the 2001 Census and are therefore subject
to revision. The 2001 rates are based on the 2000 marital status estimates. Revised marriage rates for 1991 to 2001 will be included in the annual reference volume Marriage,
divorce and adoption statistics 2001 (Series FM2) which will be published in the summer.
National Statistics
68
Population Trends 111
Table 3
Spring 2003
Previous marital status of person marrying, 1981, 1991, 2000 and 2001
England and Wales
Year of
marriage
Numbers/percentages
Men
Women
Total
Number
1981
Total
Bachelors
Divorced men
Widowers
1991
Total
Bachelors
Divorced men
Widowers
2000
Total
Bachelors
Divorced men
Widowers
2001
Total
Bachelors
Divorced men
Widowers
Table 4
Spinsters
Per cent
Number
Divorced women
Per cent
Number
Per cent
Widows
Number
351,973
100.0
263,368
74.8
75,147
21.4
13,458
3.8
259,106
79,099
13,768
73.6
22.5
3.9
227,713
33,209
2,446
64.7
9.4
0.7
29,078
41,352
4,717
8.3
11.7
1.3
2,315
4,538
6,605
0.7
1.3
1.9
306,756
100.0
224,812
73.3
73,408
23.9
8,536
2.8
222,823
74,860
9,073
72.6
24.4
3.0
192,238
31,085
1,489
62.7
10.1
0.5
29,061
40,551
3,796
9.5
13.2
1.2
1,524
3,224
3,788
0.5
1.1
1.2
267,961
100.0
187,717
70.1
74,092
27.7
6,152
2.3
186,113
75,378
6,470
69.5
28.1
2.4
156,140
30,500
1,077
58.3
11.4
0.4
28,762
42,101
3,229
10.7
15.7
1.2
1,211
2,777
2,164
0.5
1.0
0.8
249,227
100.0
177,506
71.2
66,120
26.5
5,601
2.2
175,721
67,678
5,828
70.5
27.2
2.3
148,642
27,874
990
59.6
11.2
0.4
25,954
37,268
2,898
10.4
15.0
1.2
1,125
2,536
1,940
0.5
1.0
0.8
Marriages by previous marital status and manner of solemnisation, 1991, 2000 and 2001
England and Wales
Numbers/percentages
Year of marriage
1991
Total marriages
Total marriages
First marriage for both
First marriage for one
Remarriage for both
2000
Total marriages
First marriage for both
First marriage for one
Remarriage for both
2001
Per cent
Total marriages
First marriage for both
First marriage for one
Remarriage for both
Civil marriages
Religious marriages
Number
Per cent
Number
Per cent
Number
Per cent
306,756
100.0
151,333
49.3
155,423
50.7
192,238
63,159
51,359
62.7
20.6
16.7
64,614
44,643
42,076
21.1
14.6
13.7
127,624
18,516
9,283
41.6
6.0
3.0
267,961
100.0
170,800
63.7
97,161
36.3
156,140
61,550
50,271
58.3
23.0
18.8
79,157
48,361
43,282
29.5
18.0
16.2
76,983
13,189
6,989
28.7
4.9
2.6
249,227
100.0
160,238
64.3
88989
35.7
148,642
55,943
44,642
59.6
22.4
17.9
77,048
44,601
38,589
30.9
17.9
15.5
71594
11342
6053
28.7
4.6
2.4
69
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Table 5
Spring 2003
Age at marriage by sex and previous marital status, 2001
England and Wales
Numbers
Age
Men
Total
Women
Bachelors
Divorced
Widowers
Total
Spinsters
Divorced
Widows
Total
249,227
175,721
67,678
5,828
249,227
177,506
66,120
5,601
16–19
1,945
1,931
14
0
6,896
6,841
55
0
20
21
22
23
24
20–24
2,215
3,371
4,923
5,973
8,169
24,651
2,199
3,346
4,873
5,915
8,046
24,379
15
25
49
58
122
269
1
1
3
1
3
5,571
7,545
9,088
10,718
12,395
45,317
5,494
7,446
8,930
10,480
12,046
44,396
76
95
156
235
341
903
1
4
2
3
8
18
25
26
27
28
29
25–29
10,426
12,838
14,100
15,012
15,558
67,934
10,237
12,500
13,641
14,313
14,511
65,202
187
334
456
694
1,029
2,700
2
4
3
5
18
32
13,871
15,119
15,397
14,744
14,668
73,799
13,367
14,397
14,274
13,352
12,723
68,113
498
706
1,105
1,365
1,917
5,591
6
16
18
27
28
95
30
31
32
33
34
30–34
15,249
13,446
12,249
10,709
9,756
61,409
13,750
11,644
10,121
8,300
7,101
50,916
1,485
1,785
2,105
2,391
2,616
10,382
14
17
23
18
39
111
13,499
11,319
10,092
8,862
8,093
51,865
11,127
8,846
7,176
5,845
4,842
37,836
2,332
2,427
2,868
2,951
3,181
13,759
40
46
48
66
70
270
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54
55–59
36,397
20,475
12,782
10,167
5,860
21,362
7,161
2,527
1,218
497
14,795
13,010
9,835
8,224
4,554
240
304
420
725
819
29,144
16,528
10,523
7,548
3,552
13,451
4,226
1,438
657
287
15,260
11,790
8,419
6,108
2,593
433
512
666
783
672
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
3,420
1,988
1,139
680
262
127
86
38
2,300
1,042
394
134
858
819
659
508
1,991
1,027
551
330
123
74
31
26
1,090
372
124
41
778
581
396
263
80–84
85–89
90 and over
263
98
19
13
86
-
25
2
-
225
10
19
117
31
8
4
2
1
11
3
1
102
26
6
Mean ag e
34.8
30.6
43.5
61.0
32.2
28.4
40.4
55.2
Median age
32.1
29.7
42.0
61.6
29.9
27.7
39.2
55.1
National Statistics
70
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
Recent Publications
Annual Abstract of Statistics, 2003 (TSO, £39.50, January, ISBN
0 11 621572 0)
Living in Britain, results from the 2001 General Household
Survey (TSO, £39.50, February, ISBN 0 11 621574 7)
Birth Statistics, England and Wales, 2001, Series FM1 no.30
(December, available on the National Statistics website at
www.statistics.gov.uk/products/p5768.asp)
Mortality statistics: cause, England and Wales, 2001, Series
DH2 no.28 (December, available on the National Statistics website at
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=618)
Cancer statistics: registrations, England, 1999, Series MB1 no.30
(December, available on the National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/
statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=8843)
Mortality statistics: childhood, infant and perinatal, 2001, Series
DH3 no.34 (March, available on the National Statistics website at
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=6305)
Census 2001: Key statistics for local authorities in England and
Wales (TSO, £75, February, ISBN 0 11 621643 3)
Social Trends 2003, no.33 (TSO, £39.50, January, ISBN 0 11 621571 2)
Census 2001: Key statistics for local authorities in Wales (English
and Welsh language, TSO, £45, February, ISBN 0 11 621644 1)
Contraception and Sexual Health, 2001 (March, available on the
National Statistics website at www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/
Product.asp?vink=6988)
Family Spending 2001-2002 (TSO, £39.50, March, ISBN 0 11 621573 9)
Health Statistics Quarterly 17 (TSO, £20, March, ISBN 0 11 621629 8)
UK Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities
2003 (TSO, £39.50, December, ISBN 0 11 621641 7)
Indexes to the UK Standard Industrial Classification of
Economic Activities 2003
(TSO, £39.50, December, ISBN 0 11 621642 5)
All of the above publications from TSO can be ordered on 0870 600 5522 or
online at www.tso.co.uk/bookshop. They can also be downloaded free of
charge from the National Statistics website.
71
National Statistics
Population Trends 111
Spring 2003
This is a blank page.
National Statistics
72
Other population and health articles, publications and data
Health Statistics Quarterly 18
Population Trends 112
Publication 29 May 2003
Planned
articles:
●
●
●
●
Report:
●
Publication 26 June 2003
Comparison of area-based inequality
measures and disease morbidity in England,
1994–1998
Twentieth century mortality trends
in England and Wales
Implications for vital statistics of the change
from SOC90 to SOC2000 in occupation
coding
Geographical comparisons of cancer survival
indicators
Planned
articles:
●
●
●
Reports:
●
●
Population review of 2001: England and
Wales
Birth expectations
Care for parents and care for children
Live births in England and Wales 2002:
local and health authority areas
Death registrations in England and Wales
2002: area of residence
Death registrations in England and Wales,
2002: cause
Vital Statistics data – annual data for each Health
and Local Authority in England and Wales
Forthcoming Annual Reference Volumes
Title
Key population and vital statistics 2001,VS no. 28/PP1 no. 24
International migration 2001, MN no. 28*
Mortality statistics 2001, injury and poisoning, DH4 no.26*
Planned publication
April 2003
June 2003
June 2003
* Available through the National Statistics website only www.statistics.gov.uk
VS1 Births and mortality summary data
Population, births and deaths, fertility and mortality rates, comparisons with
the region, and with England and Wales.
VS2 Births data
Births by age of mother, number of previous children, place of confinement
and birthweight.
VS3 Mortality data by cause
Deaths by cause, sex and age.
VS3sc Mortality data by cause
Deaths by cause, sex and age.
VS4 Births and mortality by ward
Live births, stillbirths and deaths (by age).
VS4D Mortality by selected causes by ward
Deaths for wards in local authorities by 14 selected causes.
VS5 Infant and perinatal mortality data
Live births, stillbirths and infant deaths. Numbers and rates.
Live births and stillbirths by birthweight.
Stillbirths by gestation period.
How to order:
Most Vital Statistics data are available on paper and CD-ROM for each year
1993–2001. Prices range from £15. To order contact:
Vital Statistics Outputs Branch
Room 1300
Office for National Statistics
Segensworth Road
Titchfield
Hampshire PO15 5RR
Tel: 01329 813758